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May 31, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-131
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Go back and re read Prigozhin’s account of Ukie losses in the Battle of Aremivsk…..
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jun 1 2023 10:31 utc | 203
Go back and read the Prigozhin interviews in which he explains in the most explicit terms possible that there are traitors in very influential positions in the Russian ruling elite, as well as a whole bunch of other things I have been saying here for many months.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 1 2023 10:33 utc | 201
What needs to be understood…
The AFU suffered monstrous losses at Artyomovsk. The 72,000 Ukrainian (and not only) military personnel dead includes not only enlisted personnel, but all – tankers, artillerymen, reconnaissance personnel, signalers and all those who fought in this area and were liquidated. It is not yet clear how many of them are mercenaries, even approximately.
For the 72 thousand killed there are about 200 thousand wounded of varying degrees (with a ratio of one to three). Most of the wounded will never return to action, and therefore will not be able to increase the combat effectiveness of the AFU.
Ukraine’s entire pre war army numbered about 230,000 men, and Artyomovsk destroyed its asset, its best personnel, which cannot be replenished in the foreseeable future.
Together with these cadres, the reserves that the AFU was preparing for an attack in the Donetsk direction were burned. Without a grouping of 200,000 men, no large scale offensive is possible.
Now another problem has arisen: a shortage of junior and mid level commanders, without whom combat management, even under current conditions, will be seriously hampered.
This does not include losses incurred during the battles of Mariupol, Luhansk, and elsewhere…
Posted by: Lingo | Jun 1 2023 10:40 utc | 202
that’s what you get for a series of goodwill gestures
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 1 2023 9:27 utc | 187
This isn’t “goodwill” like in Kiev. I think it was the local governor who said they have trained volunteers but they did not receive weapons and the legal documents to use them. Prigozhin said he wanted to train volunteers to protect the borders months ago, but Shoigu said no. At least the locals are smart enough now to evacuate children. What is strange is that there is no organized evacuation of the entire region. Probably no one wants the responsibility of that order so everyone involved moves the paper to the next guy. Next elections will be very funny.
Posted by: rk | Jun 1 2023 10:45 utc | 203
Et Tu # 9:58 utc | 198
Thank you and I do get your point that Russia could do a better job. I assume that Putin and his political wing are cautious to bring the people along the path of victory with them and not let this immense struggle lapse into a contest of chauvinistic struggle between close contesting political factions. They have worked very hard over three decades to get where they are and stabilise the Russian Federation in the face of persistent sabotage by UKUSA and all.
From his appointment as prime minister in 1999 and president from early 2000 to now (with a brief few years lapse) This political machinery has maintained a majority and made the transformation possible. Most other political parties are exhausted after such a stint but the Russians go from strength to strength. A war done badly or disastrously could smash Russia and I would cut them some slack for being gradualist with this Ukrainian conflict.
So now the motherland is cut and injured, assaulted by the nazis of old and from what I see the Russian dragon is unleashed and the escalation is now inexorable. Given the destruction on so many critical stores, the Zaluzhny take down, and then the apparent annihilation of the second NATO command centre likely leaving Ukraine in dire distress and close to capitulation, Russia is dramatically less encumbered that it was a month ago. Across the entire front the Russian military presses forward and the dissembling blather from Ukraine about its counter-offensive increases daily.
I see a Russian people ably and carefully led by competent political operators. Sometimes too cautious but never getting too far ahead of the people it serves and with enough stored confidence to cop a bit of flack for the sake of solidarity overall.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 1 2023 10:46 utc | 204
Various western news sources claim that Yevgeny Prighozhin is a serious political contender to Vladimir Putin’s presidency.
Perhaps they are unaware (or deliberately obtuse) about the fact that anyone convicted of a felony is barred from elected office in the Russian Federation. Like Navalny.
Posted by: Ant. | May 31 2023 20:48 utc | 106
I thought he was planning to be President of Ukraine?
The main force of Ukraine was destroyed in tune of 50 – 60% in the Bakhmut direction (including 30 or so brigades worth of troops). The primary strategy then shifted to start shelling border regions near Kharkov, that is, Belgorod region. Kharkov itself is a large city with good logistic end node with relatively secured rear, which enables to support these actions.
But how much stuff did Ukraine deploy in the Kharkov area? Probably not that much, you don’t need a lot to lob shells and make a huge PR event of destroyed civilian buildings. Look at Avdeevka, they have basically been crushed, it’s just they had some huge stock piles of ammunition hidden pre-war years into underground concrete structures.
Ukraine launches some company sized raids, they did it today and got pushed off with high casualty rate.
But perhaps they should (have) train border volunteers with proper weapons etc.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 1 2023 10:53 utc | 206
” A terrorist act by forces of up to two motorized infantry companies reinforced with tanks,” as the Russian Ministry of Defense stated, is a full-fledged invasion of the territory of the Russian Federation.
Attacks by two motorized infantry companies with tanks, IMR and artillery are not carried out.
But it is precisely this term that the Ministry of Defense, apparently, is forced to voice in order not to declare a full-fledged war.
The “special operation” continues.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Jun 1 2023 10:57 utc | 207
“I can tell you the first theses. In these theses for CNN, the first thing will be – Russia must be respected, if you do not respect us, we will tear your ass apart wherever and whichever way possible. If the army fails, then the Wagner PMCs will do it.”
Posted by: Paco | May 31 2023 20:33 utc | 118
#############
What red-blooded man doesn’t love Prighozin’s mastery of rhetoric?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 31 2023 21:50 utc | 113
Absolutely! 🙂
With EU holding a meeting in Moldova it really is starting to look like 1914 with Austro-Hungarian-German Empire represented by EU provoking Russia on its borders
The pitiful sense of history in Western hubris and the lack of self-respect the mass of people display, it looks like Europe is headed for history-defining destruction instigated by USA
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 1 2023 11:08 utc | 209
John Helmer on expanding further annexations in order to protect Russian territories being bombed almost daily now:
https://johnhelmer.org/annexation-of-kharkov-ukraine-to-shrink-westward-as-russia-responds-to-cross-border-attacks/
I see many flaws with this strategy. It is riddled with contradictions and fails to address any of the core issues.
1- Russia used as justification for its invasion the protection of former Russian territories and their Russophone population who were under attack by Kiev since 2014. So far, that has resulted in the destruction of much of these lands, the further displacement of its people, and an expansion of the attacks into Russia proper.
2- Russia so far cannot even enforce and honour the first 4 annexations. How is it realistically expected to credibly make this task even more ambitious?
3- By moving the border further West in order to protect Belgorod, Bryansk et al., does it not just mean that the Russians living in Kharkov and Zaparozhye will just bear the brunt of the attacks? It just feels like political jockeying, or robbing Peter to pay Paul. If Ukraine is still sending saboteurs and missiles across the front line, and that front line is Russia, what difference does it make whether it is in Bryansk or Kharkov? What is the point of moving the goals to the 18 yard line? All you are doing is saving the attackers an extra 18 yards to score a goal.
4- If Russia was using its support of Russians in Ukraine as justification for the invasion (for which i call bs, just look at how Donetsk is still being shelled today as an example) how does it expect this narrative to be credible, when all it can do is use these territories as buffer zone in order to protect “Russia proper”, yet at the same time claim these territories as its own? Does the Kremlin expect there to be 2 classes of Russian citizen from now on?
Posted by: Et Tu | Jun 1 2023 9:27 utc | 188
Yes. These are the questions. The real questions. Roloslavsky I think would claim its all about it all being a sham.
@ uncle tungsten | Jun 1 2023 10:58 utc | 213
on Moscow Times:
Maybe they have been helpful during the 90s to establish some other narrative from “old” Russia, but in general they are on “Navalny line” there and never produced one positive view on current Russia.
The owner of The Moscow Times is an old Amsterdmse Maoist, turned businessman, turned pusher of Western values via Cosmopolitan etc. Derk Sauer.
Howard Amos is the chief editor there.
After five years reporting on economics and politics for The Moscow Times, he went freelance and worked for international media outlets including The Associated Press, Newsweek, and The Guardian.
That tells me everything I need to know how trustworthy that crowd is.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 1 2023 11:25 utc | 211
“Residents of Shebekino decided to leave. According to Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov, the temporary accommodation center for 1,000 places in Belgorod has already filled up, and all arrivals are registered at other temporary accommodation centers.”
They should have written “thanks to Mr. Shoigu, residents decided to leave”
Posted by: rk | Jun 1 2023 11:36 utc | 212
The EU is a collection of no learners (360 degree’s)
And slow learners.
Mr Macron and Mr Sholtz go to history 101 Immediately!
The pitiful sense of history in Western hubris and the lack of self-respect the mass of people display, it looks like Europe is headed for history-defining destruction instigated by USA
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Jun 1 2023 11:08 utc | 214
Posted by: jpc | Jun 1 2023 11:48 utc | 213
Ukraine’s general staff announced that their counter-offensive operation around Bakhmut has been halted due to the need to restore combat capability of units.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 1 2023 11:57 utc | 214
Posted by: Et Tu | Jun 1 2023 9:27 utc | 188
In response I would argue the following:
1) The SMO opened as a hasty attack undertaken to disrupt 404 military attack. Evidence for this is the crazy quilt of RF movements which resemble ink spilled on the map of 404 rather than a considered attack which sought either destruction of enemy force or occupation of territory. RF sought to confuse UAF, disrupt its attack, and move Z toward the peace and accommodation plan on which Z had been elected.
2) The RF disruption having been defeated by the intervention of Boris Johnston the RF found itself in an untenable military position. It then consolidated its position, and commenced mobilization of the force structure required to deliver military defeat to 404 and its various consorts. During the build-up, the bulk of the conflict was undertaken by Wagner PMC which steadily advanced assisted by RF artillery.
3) We now witness a third phase in which RF regular forces engage in “familiarization training” via undertaking small scale operations to expose them to the realities of combat. This proceeds along with RF attacks on 404 areas of concentration, command & control, and logistics centres. RF is now degrading the opposing military force. This inhibits 404 from “Grand Offensive” action and prepares the battle space for what comes next.
4) What comes next, and when, is up to Valery Vasilyevich Gerasimov. I suspect the timing will be soon and the objective will be the destruction of all UAF forces presently situated on the line of contact in the Donbass.
5) Having destroyed the UAF military, the RF will move to the final phase to complete the neutralization of 404 as a potential future threat or launch point for further NATO aggression. As Col Macgregor has opined, this may include putting 2,000,000 men on the borders of Europe. What is Europe to do in response? Have a conference? Sullivan to make testy comments in the NYT? WaPo tells us Washington has trapped RF in a web of global sanctions?
Posted by: Sushi | Jun 1 2023 12:16 utc | 215
British RAF Rivet Joint is cruising deep inside Moldova, the other NATO AWACS nearby in their usual ISR mode – all together 4 AWACS in the region.
Which they didn’t do ever.
So a slow creep there and an obvious land grab by NATO+EU as an excuse having a NATO/EU/landgrab conference there – how more stupid that can be?
To me, it is a clear that a second main objective for RF along with getting Donbass is a necessity to connect to Transnistria, possibly at any price, otherwise RF will lose a great Western portion of the Black Sea.
Having Moldova failing to remain neutral, none of RF security demands can be met in the future.
If RF were behaving like NATO or the USA, they would Iskanderise and Kalibrate the Chisenau meetings’ palace until nothing moves there.
That would save RF a rising mass of the problems and costs that will arise to new levels in the future.
As Moldova is not a NATO affiliate (yet) there would be absolutely no reason for NATO to say a word on it there.
NATO is not a part of a conflict, remember?
But RF is not functioning on that level and whatever we think on how-to’s and why-to’s, RF stays absolutely opposite of our expectations.
Posted by: whirlX | Jun 1 2023 12:18 utc | 216
What red-blooded man doesn’t love Prighozin’s mastery of rhetoric?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 31 2023 21:50 utc | 113
A master troll, a giant among pygmies; and a sense of humor as dry as a desert. Putin’s alter ego.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 1 2023 12:19 utc | 217
Posted by: Shebekino | Jun 1 2023 10:04 utc | 199
That’s a decent amount of damage inflicted by RF forces.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 1 2023 12:22 utc | 218
IMO Prigozhin might be celebrity but he is not a patch on Putin’s or many other’s management capacity.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 31 2023 23:16 utc | 119
Prigozhin is a complete a******e. I cannot understand why anyone here gives him the time of day.
Posted by: Tim | Jun 1 2023 12:38 utc | 219
hmmm…thinks…even today Baerbock says Ukr cannot as yet join NATO as it is not ready . methinks if-when could be peace talks EU could more easily renege on this situation to gain some peace acceptance as not much of their own would be lost(only budgets …some loss of face…armaments etc)….but that is much more easy than undoing Ukr nembership of Nato ???? Could EU admit some remnant of Ukr though to save face in the negotiations?
Posted by: Jo | Jun 1 2023 12:49 utc | 220
EtTu 188
the purpose of moving UKr boundary westwards is Russia has said to put western newly delivered long range 500k missiles beyond the reach of current Russian borders .
Posted by: Jo | Jun 1 2023 13:22 utc | 221
A master troll, a giant among pygmies; and a sense of humor as dry as a desert. Putin’s alter ego.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 1 2023 12:19 utc | 218
———————————-
And, you offer???? What’s the Ukrop word for “nothing”?
Posted by: Drake Schroeder | Jun 1 2023 13:31 utc | 222