Ukraine Open Thread 2023-129
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on May 28, 2023 at 13:43 UTC | Permalink
next page »Re: Don Bacon | May 28 2023 13:48 utc | 1
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Does the IBA officially support the attempted slow genocide in Donbass?
Posted by: Merkin Scot | May 28 2023 14:04 utc | 2
In the international criminal law circles in The Hague, NL, and among the employees of the international courts based here, the talk has been for quite a while about the setting up of a special tribunal to prosecute Russian officials (guess who) for the crime of aggression.
I have been told that the preparations for the establishment of such a tribunal are in an advanced stage.
ICC Statute- crime of aggression:
Article 8 bis3
Crime of aggression
1. For the purpose of this Statute, “crime of aggression” means the planning, preparation, initiation or
execution, by a person in a position effectively to exercise control over or to direct the political or military
action of a State, of an act of aggression which, by its character, gravity and scale, constitutes a manifest
violation of the Charter of the United Nations.
2. For the purpose of paragraph 1, “act of aggression” means the use of armed force by a State against
the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of another State, or in any other manner
inconsistent with the Charter of the United Nations. Any of the following acts, regardless of a declaration
of war, shall, in accordance with United Nations General Assembly resolution 3314 (XXIX) of 14 December
1974, qualify as an act of aggression:
(a) The invasion or attack by the armed forces of a State of the territory of another State, or any military
occupation, however temporary, resulting from such invasion or attack, or any annexation by the use
of force of the territory of another State or part thereof;
(b) Bombardment by the armed forces of a State against the territory of another State or the use of any
weapons by a State against the territory of another State;
(c) The blockade of the ports or coasts of a State by the armed forces of another State;
(d) An attack by the armed forces of a State on the land, sea or air forces, or marine and air fleets of
another State;
(e) The use of armed forces of one State which are within the territory of another State with the
agreement of the receiving State, in contravention of the conditions provided for in the agreement or
any extension of their presence in such territory beyond the termination of the agreement;
(f) The action of a State in allowing its territory, which it has placed at the disposal of another State, to
be used by that other State for perpetrating an act of aggression against a third State;
(g) The sending by or on behalf of a State of armed bands, groups, irregulars or mercenaries, which carry
out acts of armed force against another State of such gravity as to amount to the acts listed above, or
its substantial involvement therein.
There have never been so many courts and various bodies set up or planned - to prosecute Russians for alleged crimes in Ukraine and in relation to Ukraine.
Such inflation of investigative and judicial bodies is driving the importance and credibility of such organs and bodies, as well as the meaning of law and the rule of law to zero (0). There is nothing that the Western "democracies" will not destroy.
Posted by: JB | May 28 2023 14:16 utc | 3
Seems like they've forgotten it's the winners who get to prosecute the losers.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | May 28 2023 14:29 utc | 4
Ukraine news . . . destruction from falling fragments. . .
Destruction Recorded In 3 Districts Of Kyiv Due To Fall Of Drone Fragments, Killed And Wounded Reported . .The Kyiv City Military Administration reported that more than 40 enemy kamikaze drones were shot down over Kyiv. In the Holosiyivskyi, Pecherskyi and Darnytskyi districts of the capital, destruction due to the fall of debris from downed drones was recorded. . . .the "fall of debris" resulted in a direct hit of a building photo here. . .and in an updated report "In the early hours of May 28, 2023, the enemy attacked Ukraine with Iranian-made Shahed-136/131 attack drones from the Bryansk and Krasnodar regions, launching a record number of UAVs - 54.. . .Some 52 Shaheds were shot down as a result of successful combat work.". . .in other news, "In continuation of his accusations and anti-Iranian actions, the President of Ukraine has proposed imposing 50-year sanctions against Iran to the Kyiv Parliament." . . .because they have to sweep up all those "fragments."
Posted by: Don Bacon | May 28 2023 14:30 utc | 5
The legal case against Russia is very weak. What makes it a very bad joke are the very clear precedents established by the US and its agents in literally dozens of post Nuremberg incidents of aggressive warplanned and waged by the USA.
What the IBA, which was struck dumb during the attacks on Syria and Libya, is doing is discrediting itself for money and other advantages. Which is what lawyers do.
Posted by: bevin | May 28 2023 14:30 utc | 6
Russia fighting for its survival couldn't raise a 'coalition of the willing' as the US has done before destroying countries for the profit in it, under a 'rules-based international order.'
Posted by: Don Bacon | May 28 2023 14:41 utc | 7
Does the IBA officially support the attempted slow genocide in Donbass?
They didn’t notice.
Posted by: Fred777 | May 28 2023 14:47 utc | 8
Regarding the IBA attempting to set up a special international tribunal:
1. The west has failed in economic/financial warfare against Russia. If anything, Russia has benefited tremendously from this.
2. Obviously, NATO has no military solution against Russia.
3. The U.N. cannot do anything as Russia is a permanent member of Security Council and China would veto also.
4. The ICC is toothless and the warrant for Putin just exposes the farce.
So, I think we are seeing the latest act of desperation. This kind of attack strongly suggests US/EU has run out of ideas. This newest front in "Lawfare", something American officials routinely practice on domestic and foreign enemies, will have no effect.
It seems the world has finally grown tired of US trying to dominate everyone.
Posted by: Mar man | May 28 2023 14:48 utc | 9
Re: War Crimes Trials
NATO officers are sure going to be surprised when they are held accountable for letting their Kiev troops run amok. Command Resposibity was first brought up during the Tokyo Trials when General Yamashita was found guilty of not restraining his forces during a chaotic retreat in the Philipines.
Since the Yamashita precedence, Guilt under (lack of) Command Reaposibility has been greatly expanded such that NATO general officers who were responsible force training Azov etc units can be held accountable for the crimes of those units.
Finally NATO civilian leaders would do well to study the case of Japanese Cabinet Minister Hirota Kōki who was found guilty of war crimes and hung by the neck until dead despite Hirota being lukewarm against the Japanese War of Conquest.
Posted by: Exile | May 28 2023 14:56 utc | 10
It gets ever more bemusing. It would appear these people have no idea where the world finds itself.
The United States is facing dismemberment. Either from within by Secession or from without by Elimination of Population Centres.
There will be no United States or European Union - these are historical entities.
There are BILLIONS on people on this planet who will be free of 300 million Americans and 80 million Germans..........the Endgame is here
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 28 2023 15:00 utc | 11
Journalists have knowledge a mile wide and an inch deep. They are not interested in determining and reporting facts. They are interested in presenting their proprietor's political line in order to sell page impressions and present eyeballs to advertisers.
We get infantile media reports because that is what sells to an infantilised population.
What's even worse is many people will still cherry pick from certain journalists if they massage their confirmation bias even though they lie about the war. Instead of ignoring them completely.
The IMF are a perfect example of this. Even though many people know full well the IMF write fairytales. Humans will still use one article from 1000's articles from the IMF to back up their argument if that article massages their confirmation bias.
It's bonkers human behsviour. Rather than changing their own confirmation bias via study and truth seeking. They would rather cling onto a dingy with many holes in it. Than simply address their own world view.
Posted by: Derek Henry | May 28 2023 15:06 utc | 12
Lawyers, Judges etc are used to clients and defendants not striking back lethally.
I guess these legal folks reckon they can replicate the Nuremberg cases against Russians?
Posted by: Wokechoke | May 28 2023 15:12 utc | 13
Posted by: JB | May 28 2023 14:16 utc | 3
"(a) The invasion or attack by the armed forces of a State of the territory of another State, or any military occupation, however temporary, resulting from such invasion or attack, or any annexation by the use of force of the territory of another State or part thereof;"
- hmmm. Would US occupation of Syrian territory without the invitation or consent of the Syrian government match this condition?
"(g) The sending by or on behalf of a State of armed bands, groups, irregulars or mercenaries, which carry out acts of armed force against another State of such gravity as to amount to the acts listed above, or its substantial involvement therein."
- hmmm. Would US openly admitted and indeed bragged about support of various rebel groups in Syria, hilariously described as moderate democratic, match this condition?
As they say, just asking.
Posted by: ltexpat | May 28 2023 15:18 utc | 14
Ukraine's "status" is to be upgraded at the upcoming Vilnius Summit. "Upgraded status?" For all intents and purposes Ukraine to me is already a technical and tactical member of NATO, albeit not formally inducted. The London/Brussels/EU/Wash.D.C. cabal keeps poking, poking, and poking Russia. Each time that stick gets shorter. Make no mistake about it, the Zeusians want to provoke Russia by constantly shortening the nuclear threshold. It's time this satanic crap is stopped.
@ Derek Henry | May 28 2023 15:06 utc | 12
re: Journalists have knowledge a mile wide and an inch deep.. . .
A good reference book on that is "War Made Easy: How Presidents and Pundits Keep Spinning Us to Death" by Norman Solomon.
Posted by: Don Bacon | May 28 2023 15:36 utc | 16
There’s a lot of work for Russian justice.
The living as the dead will testify.
A native of Artemovsk thanked the fighters of PMC "Wagner" for the evacuation of children from the house at 150 Levanevsky Street.
ㅤ
"I know that the guys died there, they took this house from May 12, 2023. There was a terrible battle for two days, then they broke through the wall into the basement and They took the children and the elderly."
Posted by: la bouteille | May 28 2023 15:40 utc | 17
Posted by: Don Bacon | May 28 2023 15:36 utc | 16
" A good reference book on that is "War Made Easy: How Presidents and Pundits Keep Spinning Us to Death" by Norman Solomon. "
Thanks Don I'll take a look. I'm off On holiday shortly and need to get my reading sorted. I've several books at the ready that I have put off for my holiday but always happy to add more.
The spin is no different to the same psychopaths who say "government needs your taxes to spend." Even though in literal terms you can't collect anything unless it has been issued first.
If I set you a task Don - That is you have to collect rocking horse shit. First thing you'll do is find out who issues it.
If rocking horse shit don't exist then you can't collect it.
Posted by: Derek Henry | May 28 2023 15:48 utc | 18
@ WT Baker | May 28 2023 15:33 utc | 15
It is almost certain that Ukraine will start its bigger offensive moves, encouraged by many NATO planes in the area “training and exercising defensive tactics”.
So, Ukraine is trumpeting that for everyone to hear, from the June 12th onwards during the “peaceful” NATO's Air Defender 2023 we will...
It also depends on how much will RF intensify its degradation of combat ready Ukrainian groupings starting from today onwards.
Counter-offensive also depends on the fact if RF will actually allow that NATO becomes Ukrainian surrogate air force.
As many in RF's military commentaries agree – Ukraine does X because we allow them to do it. Why it is like that? This is not yet clear to me.
Posted by: whirlX | May 28 2023 15:53 utc | 19
Good Sabbath, barflies:
Arguably the most dangerous Westard disinformation--if it be such--in circulation at the moment is the Patriot defeats Kinzhal story.
If this is false, as I currently assume, there are politicians in the decision-making roles who are further than ever from understanding that RF has a generational lead in long-range strike capacity (offense) and in AD/EW systems (defense).
Though in a world without nukes we might celebrate this strategic confusion as a major self-infliction maskirovka defeat, in our actual world, the latest Patriot v. Kinzhal fantasy only further imperils us all.
But calling out to the barflies w/ military knowledge--my assumption has been that the Kinzhal's high-mach speeds make interception effectively impossible, but I've been reading that the Kinzhal actually drops speed on approach to a sub-plasma level in order to take final bearings, at which point they might at least be trackable if not fully targetable.
Interceptibility aside, if this drop to sub-hypersonic speeds on final approach is true, much of what I thought I understood about the kinetic energies involved in a Kinzhal strike may also be untrue.
What is the best interpretation of Kinzhal capabilities here?
Posted by: Paul Damascene | May 28 2023 15:55 utc | 20
Posted by: Don Bacon | May 28 2023 15:36 utc | 16
" War Made Easy: How Presidents and Pundits Keep Spinning Us to Death" "
Ideologues will STILL cherry pick what they say on the other issues, if these psychos narrative and framing massages their own confirmation bias. A confirmation bias instilled in them in education camps from the age of 5. By the media as a fully grown adult.
Posted by: Derek Henry | May 28 2023 15:56 utc | 21
"It is a big idealistic mistake to think that Ukraine will prevail. Russia is 16 times bigger than Ukraine. We have enormous resources and we haven’t just started yet to act very seriously."
Russian ambassador to the UK
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | May 28 2023 16:09 utc | 22
“Director Dr Mark Ellis talked with the Media Initiative for #HumanRights. He said: 'The world isn’t fighting just for the sovereignty of Ukraine, it is fighting for the observance of the world order.”
Don Bacon | May 28 2023 13:48 utc | 1
Executive Director Dr. Mark Ellis is a well-known person of easy virtue who has never had any dignity. To ensure the health of his banking account, Ellis was always accommodating to American Gangsters’ demands. In short, Ellis is eager to serve war criminals. He is a consummate scoundrel.
From 1999 to 2000, Ellis acted as Legal Advisor to the Independent International Commission on Kosovo… He was involved with the trial of Saddam Hussein... He is a current adjunct professor at Florida State University College of Law.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Ellis_(lawyer)
Posted by: Cerena | May 28 2023 16:09 utc | 23
I'd love nothing more than the government to announce that at midnight tonight we now have to pay our taxes in rocking horse shit.
Or
At midnight tonight the government says we are no longer going to issue ( spend) any $'s ever again but we still have to pay our taxes in $'s. Run permanent HUGE forever growing budget surpluses As the economy collapsed around their ears.
Even then Billions still wouldn't get it. Humanity is insane.
Posted by: Derek Henry | May 28 2023 16:11 utc | 24
He must have been reading MOA and people saying Russia should take the gloves off. 😁
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | May 28 2023 16:11 utc | 25
Re: Posted by: whirlX | May 28 2023 15:53 utc | 19
As many in RF's military commentaries agree – Ukraine does X because we allow them to do it. Why it is like that? This is not yet clear to me.
What isn't clear to you?
It's obvious. Russia doesn't have the capability to stop "Ukraine doing X" - ergo, it CAN'T stop "Ukraine doing X".
If you have another explanation - please share it - because this is obvious.
If Russia had the capability TO STOP "Ukraine doing X" IT WOULD STOP UKRAINE DOING X.
Believing there is some sort of 49D chess plan in operation here is the height of delusion in assessing this issue.
Posted by: Julian | May 28 2023 16:12 utc | 26
The number of opened ballot boxes - 82.64%CNN TurkRecep Tayyip Erdogan - 53.41%
Kemal Kılıçdaroglu - 46.59%
Posted by: ostro | May 28 2023 16:14 utc | 27
There is no Law but the Law of the Victor.
"right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must."
-- Thucydides
Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 28 2023 16:14 utc | 28
Maria Zakharova of the Russian Foreign Ministry posted the following in Telegram:
U.S. Senator from South Carolina Lindsey Graham with a satisfied smirk at a meeting with Zelensky: “Russians are dying. We have never spent money so well.”
During the Nuremberg Tribunal, the Minister of Economy of Nazi Germany, Hjalmar Schacht, stated that the Third Reich was also sponsored from abroad and named the two largest American corporations: Ford and General Motors. An unspoken deal was made with him - freedom in exchange for silence. Despite the protests of the Soviet representatives, he was released and lived to be 93 years old.
Let me remind you that the embodiment of the American dream, the same legendary Henry Ford was a holder of the Grand Cross of the Order of Merit of the German Eagle. His factories in Germany not only produced up to 70 thousand trucks a year for the needs of the Wehrmacht, but also used the labor of prisoners, including Auschwitz, for this.
And the German icon of the automotive industry, Opel, belonged to ... General Motors . Researcher Bradford Snell describes the role of the corporation as follows: “General Motors was far more important to the Nazi war machine than the Swiss banks. Switzerland was just a repository of stolen money. General Motors was an integral part of the German war effort. The Third Reich could have invaded Poland and Russia (USSR) without the help of Switzerland. But they couldn't have done it without the help of General Motors.
The Kodak company at its plant in Germany manufactured fuses for aerial bombs, not disdaining to use even the labor of prisoners of war.
The Coca-Cola plant in Cologne, even before its nationalization by the German government, regularly supplied soda, including to German soldiers. And the famous "Fanta" was completely invented by the Nazis.
The oil giant Standard Oil, through its subsidiaries, helped Hitler with the shortage of petroleum products, participated in the development of synthetic rubber and synthetic fuels. And IBM , beloved by IT people all over the world, produced accounting and control devices for the Nazis, including for oil production. Among other things, the equipment of this company helped to keep track of train schedules to death camps...
Well, where can we go without banks: JPMorgan Chase & Co also had a hand, and then Chase National Bank , through which multibillion-dollar transactions were carried out, and Berlin had the opportunity to buy dollars and carry out financial transactions overseas. "Chase" cooperated with the German bank "Alliance" even in such a matter as ... insurance of property and life of the guards of the concentration camps of the Third Reich.
Senator Graham has something to compare with. One of their investments led to World War II and the Holocaust.
Now, billions of US dollars are pouring into the insatiable throat of the neo-Nazi Kyiv regime. In this regard, I would like to remind the senators and all American beneficiaries how the previous adventure ended.
https://t.me/MariaVladimirovnaZakharova/5521
Posted by: Barkis | May 28 2023 16:14 utc | 29
Re: Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | May 28 2023 16:09 utc | 22
"It is a big idealistic mistake to think that Ukraine will prevail. Russia is 16 times bigger than Ukraine. We have enormous resources and we haven’t just started yet to act very seriously."Russian ambassador to the UK
Why not?
I'm sure many residents of Donetsk, Kherson & Kharkiv etc. appreciate this "non-serious" military action supposedly on their behalf.
Posted by: Julian | May 28 2023 16:19 utc | 30
Julian | May 28 2023 16:19 utc | 30
The Ukraine would not exist, if the 'counteroffensive' would ever happen, or if that 'counteroffensive' would never happen. One way or another it would stop being a country as such.
Posted by: ostro | May 28 2023 16:22 utc | 31
The number of opened ballot boxes - 91.55%
Recep Tayyip Erdogan - 52.61%
Kemal Kılıçdaroglu - 47.39%
- CNN Turk
Posted by: ostro | May 28 2023 16:24 utc | 32
Turkey - 96% of votes processed: Erdogan: 52.91%, Kılıçdaroğlu: 47.09% - not CNN Turk
Posted by: ostro | May 28 2023 16:26 utc | 33
Turkish Election
War Party trying it’s hardest to forment a colour revolution using the well worn playbook.
watch this Space
Posted by: Exile | May 28 2023 16:29 utc | 34
Posted by: Paul Damascene | May 28 2023 15:55 utc | 20
Simplicius recently had a post, motivated by the Kinzhal strikes on Patriot Systems.
From memory:
-'Hypersonic' as terninology is not clear cut in definition. As such, Mach 5 to Mach 10 can qualify
-'Hypersonic' ballistic missiles employ a ballistic trajectory; they try to leave atmosphere for as long as possible as to reduce atmospheric friction
-They reach their hypersonic top-speeds when atmosphere is the thinnest; here it is where the plasma shields them from detection
-Re-entry of denser atmosphere - naturally - slows them down
-When the 'plasma shield' disappears, then some corrections can be done
-Impact speed actually does not qualify as hypersonic; however, impact speed still is way faster than conventional stuff
-It is not the kinetics of the object doing the work, it's conventional explosives
-Russian systems like the Kinzhal carry additional missiles as decoys
-Decoys, as well as Kinzhals et al., posses electronic warfare capability
Re: Patriot system: The Patriot's radar actually does not have 360° coverage. Thus, you can hit this blind spot.
In summary: Russia's hyper sonic capabilities are not the out of this world wunderwaffen some might want to make you think they are.
However, they exceed everything, be it offensive oder defensive, NATO can field. From what Russia has employed to this point that is, anyway.
I'd say chances still stand there is even more advanced stuff we havn't witnessed being used so far.
Posted by: kspr | May 28 2023 16:31 utc | 36
Posted by: Derek Henry | May 28 2023 15:06 utc | 12
Although the Mencken’s adage about the public might be true, modern journalism has suffered, like all the other Western institutions, from a combination of a tainted source and a desire to cut costs. Most reporters now are journalists in name only, coming from highly politicised ‘schools’ they see their role as supporters and defenders of the narrative and are only interested in twisting news to fit its requirements. Old school reporters are expensive and no longer seen as assets, so there is huge pressures from embattled publications, fighting off the rise of new-media, to get them off the payroll and replace them with younger, cheaper versions who will follow orders.
Tucker Carlson was followed by millions of self-identifying liberals, when they realised ‘their’ news sources were silent on topics they were interested in, such as big Pharma’s control over news, and investigating the MIC’s role in Ukraine. Murdoch had him removed after he was going to attack the official Jan 6th insurrection narrative and was critical of his owners favoured candidate, a move supported unanimously by the progressive drones in the media, who saw him as much as a threat as his owner.
Posted by: Milites | May 28 2023 16:32 utc | 37
There had been certain underground vibration and tremors in Kiev. It looks like "something" very large underground had been hit by those "downed" Russian missiles or Gerans
Posted by: ostro | May 28 2023 16:33 utc | 38
Obligatory question: Where is Zaluzhnyi?
(I am unconvinced by the recent videos that look like deep fakes)
Posted by: Norwegian | May 28 2023 16:34 utc | 39
Türkiye processed 99% of votes: Erdogan - 52.87%, Kılıçdaroglu - 47.13%
US/NATO had lost again...Türkiye is not Ukraine...
Posted by: ostro | May 28 2023 16:36 utc | 40
Posted by: Julian | May 28 2023 16:19 utc | 30
I'm sure many residents of Donetsk, Kherson & Kharkiv etc. appreciate this "non-serious" military action supposedly on their behalf
If you think it's not serious enough,
If you think it's not "on their behalf",
Imagine if Putin had just stood by and let Kiev butcher everyone in the LPR and DPR.
You're just big empty mouth who never lifted a finger for those in Donbas.
At least Putin put something on the line.
That man took a look into the future and realised there was a good chance he'd end up like Ghaddaffi if things went south.
Then he put all his chips on red.
What have you (and your fellow neurotics like shadowbanned) done?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 28 2023 16:39 utc | 41
Both ANKA and Anadolu Ajansi have Erdoğan leading by 3% and 4 1/2% respectively. Earlier, ANKA had Kiliçdaroğlu leading by about 1% and AA had Erdoğan leading by about 7 points, so now with about 988% of the vote in the two ajansies are getting closer together.
Posted by: Blue Dotterel | May 28 2023 16:41 utc | 42
@ Paul Damascene | May 28 2023 15:55 utc | 20
What is the best interpretation of Kinzhal capabilities here?
Unclear to me - pavewayIV, Simplicius and some others came with many convincing and widely accepted theories of a quick manoeuvrable exo-atmospheric hypersonic arrival to a point where it'll vertically dive, slowdown to look where it is and then slam at some under-hypersonic speed. Probably at Mach 2-4.
I understand that Kinzhal has a hard, thick graphite shielding that can withstand Mach 7-9 in the thick of the atmosphere with plasma stealth. Also, ability of overcoming EM interference caused by plasma applying the very high Gigahertz frequencies for pencil-beam-point communication to the targeting complex, be it a satellite, mother plane or a drone or a combination.
Maybe, it is what it is claimed publicly, just one of the combat modes that Kinzhal can be deployed in.
It'll be stupid to have just one mode of engagement for such a weapon.
But that is what I believe and out there are lot smarter people than me.
I have no idea or a proof what is the real capacity apart from being able to do a random avoidance manoeuvre at Mach 5-9+ some 100 km above the target. Almost all missiles are such, but without random manoeuvre.
Also, there is a Zircon glide missile, of which we know a little if anything.
Posted by: whirlX | May 28 2023 16:44 utc | 43
Simply,
There is less and lesser bullshit they are able to come with and lie.
The world is simply, and not to be stopped, rolling on.
Good bye hegemon and servants.
Posted by: stranger | May 28 2023 16:45 utc | 45
Posted by: Paul Damascene | May 28 2023 15:55 utc | 20
Politicians in the West are simply actors, in private they will be briefed about the capabilities of both systems, given their scripts and then told to bugger off and chase under-age interns, snort coke and line their pockets. The script seems to be, keep quiet and only talk about Ukraine in the most general terms, if the last few days of BBC ‘news’ online is anything to go by.
Posted by: Milites | May 28 2023 16:46 utc | 46
Paul Damascene @ 20
We know less about Kinzhal than we think we do.
If Kinzhal did not have unusual capabilities it would simply not be worth the trouble and expense.
It is very much in interest of RF to encourage unfounded speculation. So have at it.
Posted by: oldhippie | May 28 2023 16:49 utc | 47
Russia has handed over another set of S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems to Belarus. - Ministry of Defense of Belarus.
Posted by: ostro | May 28 2023 16:50 utc | 48
Paul [email protected] it possible the Patriot, firing all tubes, was being used like a shot gun. If the Kinzhal is trackable. Or, one time deal, lucky shot? Here in the west the Kinzhal Kill is being touted as the Ukies showing the Pentagon how to use the Patriot for something it wasn't designed for. That requires a 'bluff call', say, like a repeat of a Kinzhal delivery on another Patriot system.....just for effect. Hmmm....and confirmation that the Ghost of the Kinzhal is not a Shadow of a Storm.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 28 2023 16:54 utc | 49
What is the best interpretation of Kinzhal capabilities here?
Posted by: Paul Damascene | May 28 2023 15:55 utc | 20
It is clear they use fancy materials and fancy propellants. The basic problem inside the atmosphere is going to be ablation, you get it hot enough, it will erode, the question is how hot, that will control how fast you can go, and how resistant your fancy materials are.
Hitting even ordinary ballistic missiles is a chancy business, at the speeds involved nobody moves fast, and there is not much time.
The real killer is volley fire, it is much more expensive to take them down than it is to make them. Hamas has no problem getting rockets through as long as they can fire in volleys.
War is uneconomic these days, as they say, it onlys pays if you stay out of it.
Posted by: Bemildred | May 28 2023 17:00 utc | 50
"It is a big idealistic mistake to think that Ukraine will prevail. Russia is 16 times bigger than Ukraine. We have enormous resources and we haven’t just started yet to act very seriously."
Russian ambassador to the UK
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | May 28 2023 16:09 utc | 22
20 Nato trained equivalent brigades and Nato mercenaries and over 12 brigades of conscripts were decimated in Bakhmut at relatively lower costs, against superior odds.
The west ignores this completely and is just sinking deeper into la-la coo-coo Land. The border crossings had some PR value and unfortunately civilian victims. If they can prevent those while keep grind going and suck all EU resources in, the west is in a very bad, losing state.
Posted by: unimperator | May 28 2023 17:07 utc | 51
The head of the CEC of Turkey officially called Erdogan the winner of the presidential elections in the country. Well, US lost again!
Posted by: ostro | May 28 2023 17:19 utc | 52
How much does it cost, if Patriot system fires off all 32 missiles to intercept 1 Kinzhal missile? Albeit, a Kinzhal targeting the Patriot System itself.
Each Patriot missile cost 4 million dollars.
Each Kinzhal missile costs 10 million dollars.
128 million dollars of Patriot missiles to intercept one 10 million dollar Kinzhal missile.
Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | May 28 2023 17:20 utc | 53
Ramsey Glissadevil | May 28 2023 17:20 utc | 53
Actually, no one knows what is the Kinzhal missile, other than its name. Not how it looks like, not how much it costs, not even its real speed, nothing at all. All that's written about it is just speculation. Those, who met with it, were vaporised.
Posted by: ostro | May 28 2023 17:24 utc | 54
ostro @52: "Well, US lost again!"
Now come the cries of election fraud and similar malfeasance from the usual US State Department fake "color revolution" NGOs, with the western mass media dutifully amplifying those lies.
Posted by: William Gruff | May 28 2023 17:24 utc | 55
@ Julian | May 28 2023 16:12 utc | 26
It's obvious. Russia doesn't have the capability to stop "Ukraine doing X" - ergo, it CAN'T stop "Ukraine doing X".
If you have another explanation - please share it - because this is obvious.
I think some stuff is allowed and easily stopped, while some stuff shows lack of countering. You are right to ask.
As an example, that RF allowed itself to have a pretty unprotected border that was exploited by Ukraine recently by doing its military propaganda incursion. We know how that ended. So RF allowed Ukraine to do X. RF knew that border is weak there, and it is probably elsewhere.
If Russia had the capability TO STOP "Ukraine doing X" IT WOULD STOP UKRAINE DOING X.
Apparently they have overwhelming capability that stopped Ukraine doing it - also it exposed disjoint command over Ukrainian actions.
For such land incursions UK was responsible, Americans were pretty pissed about it, at least as a side show.
So, I believe that Belogorod incursion was allowed to happen.
Believing there is some sort of 49D chess plan in operation here is the height of delusion in assessing this issue.
There is no chess at all there, but off the top of my head, the main reason could have been to catch American gear on the territory of Russia. Which they did. They exposed UK's involvement in planning and psy-op behind such actions. I am not sure if that counts now, but it might later.
The other issues RF might try to solve might be a jurisdiction on who does what when things as such happen.
Border guard, territorial defence, FSB, military etc. have rules of an engagement and responsibility is not shared there. That was somehow clear from the reaction.
But the only thing I can see is when Ukraine does X, it does it once and with heavy losses and a bad outcome.
Also, Ukraine never tries that X again.
True is that apparently RF is incapable to stop random shelling of civilian targets in Donetsk and around Donbass' urban areas.
This is, I think, the major issue that needs a quick attention – already for some years and well overdue.
So somewhere some stuff is allowed to happen and then countered, and somewhere indeed RF is pretty much helpless.
I do not know how and why is this not utmost urgent issue, honestly.
At least it doesn't appear so to us.
Posted by: whirlX | May 28 2023 17:29 utc | 56
I know there are a lot of Prigozhin fans here, including myself, but we shouldn't take what he says too seriously:
"When addressing the claim that Wagner recruited 50,000 convicts, the first logical step is to determine what Russia’s total prison population was in 2022. Was it 10 million? 5 million? 1 million? No. It was 349,000 (which incidentally, is a huge accomplishment from a humanitarian perspective. In 2000, the prison population was more than 1 million). Also understand that 8-9% of these prisoners were women, so automatically disqualified from the Wagner recruiting drive and bringing the number of theoretically eligible candidates down to around 322,000. So I am expected to believe Prigozhin was able to enlist more than 15% of Russia’s entire male prison population? Even pro-NATO propaganda outlets like The Moscow Times and Meduza, who were trying to attribute every hiccup in Russia’s prison reporting to the Wagner recruiting drive, weren’t able to substantiate numbers anywhere close to that high"
Posted by: Иван Иванович | May 28 2023 17:38 utc | 57
So, we've got three thrusts of a Ukrainian offensive.
1. Flanks around bahkmut, which is stuck.
2. Raids into Russia which might be over.
3.longer range missle attacks into marioupal and other sea of azov targets.
None of which has yielded good results. So far no sign of the "nato" tanks.
Ukraine is failing the God of War. They've let their hubris and greed lead them astray and are consequently suffering.
Only true adherents can hope to prevail in war.
Russia may yet gain his favor if they can drop their greed and hubris. Bomb the pipelines and power plants already. Mine the ports and forget the money.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 28 2023 17:42 utc | 58
I'm no fan of Erdogan, but he possesses one invaluable piece of hard-earned knowledge that few other leaders in Europe have. He no longer has any illusions about how the Empire maintains hegemony. The coup the US launched against him ripped away the blinders. Erdogan now knows full well that any deal offered to him by the US/Empire will be laced with poison. His competitors will believe such levels of suspicion of the US are just paranoia, and this will leave them open to be either chained or destroyed by the Empire.
Posted by: William Gruff | May 28 2023 17:43 utc | 59
Also, there is a Zircon glide missile, of which we know a little if anything.
Posted by: whirlX | May 28 2023 16:44 utc | 43
Zircon is not a glide missile like the Kinzhall.
Zircon is a hypersonic cruise missile.
This is what i know.
When launched it is powered by a solid fuel booster that gets it to Hypersonic speed. When it reaches hypersonic speed its 2nd stage Scramjet ignites and takes over propulsion, accelerating it to Mach 8 or more. It maintains its speed to the target. So it is protected by a radar absorbing plasma cloud around it all the way except for at launch. Also it is maneuverable and can pretty much defeat any western anti missile tech. Said to have a range of 1000K.
Posted by: Golddiggr | May 28 2023 17:49 utc | 60
Stopping attacks on civilians is a MSM and NATO meme issue.
It is not reported, not commented on and does not incur common disapproval. Something along the lines of 'A dead Russian is a good Russian,' talk outlawed a long time ago in Western countries when it came to indigenous peoples or people of color (POC).
Addressing the hipocrisy is the critical issue. Anyone ask Blinken or the WH?
Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 28 2023 17:50 utc | 61
Question for the barflies- if Ukraine had been a full member of NATO and thus subject to the famous Article 5 what, exactly, would have likely transpired differently should the SMO have been initiated under those circumstances?
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.
Posted by: BillB | May 28 2023 17:52 utc | 62
Good Sabbath, barflies:
Arguably the most dangerous Westard disinformation--if it be such--in circulation at the moment is the Patriot defeats Kinzhal story.
If this is false, as I currently assume, there are politicians in the decision-making roles who are further than ever from understanding that RF has a generational lead in long-range strike capacity (offense) and in AD/EW systems (defense).
Though in a world without nukes we might celebrate this strategic confusion as a major self-infliction maskirovka defeat, in our actual world, the latest Patriot v. Kinzhal fantasy only further imperils us all.
But calling out to the barflies w/ military knowledge--my assumption has been that the Kinzhal's high-mach speeds make interception effectively impossible, but I've been reading that the Kinzhal actually drops speed on approach to a sub-plasma level in order to take final bearings, at which point they might at least be trackable if not fully targetable.
Interceptibility aside, if this drop to sub-hypersonic speeds on final approach is true, much of what I thought I understood about the kinetic energies involved in a Kinzhal strike may also be untrue.
What is the best interpretation of Kinzhal capabilities here?
Posted by: Paul Damascene | May 28 2023 15:55 utc | 20
You make excellent points. I had made "back of an envelope" level of calculations of kinetic energy and probable penetration depth months ago after the first strike by a Kinzahl. Unfortunately; I used to small an envelope. I mindlessly accepted the public statements about the velocity of a hypersonic missile without taking into account the deceleration resulting from aerodynamic drag.
Cindy Martin and others performed more realistic calculations (with a few factors neglected) that suggest probable impact velocities of about 500 to 1,000 meters per second. Given the many unknown variables including the ballistic coefficient of the missile warhead, possible maneuvers to alter the trajectory on terminal approach, possible terminal phase booster rocket to evade defenses and increase impact velocity, it simply isn't possible to make detailed statements with any authority.
With these caveats being acknowledged, I would make the following statements.
1. Hypersonic missiles do not have higher peak velocities than more conventional ballistic missiles with comparable range.
2. Any ballistic missile with a range greater than two hundred kilometers is technically traveling at hypersonic velocity when the booster rockets burns out. Ballistic missiles loose much of this velocity as the rise to higher altitude then regain much of this velocity as they fall back to Earth. Over the decades, designs of reentry vehicles have evolved to reduce aerodynamic drag and thus increase terminal velocity. The same applies to hypersonic missiles.
3. Hypersonic missiles are different from ballistic missiles because they are maneuverable during the terminal phase of attack. This manauverability combined with accurate inertial guidance can enable random evasive maneuvers combined with increased accuracy. However; limits on the accelerations that such missiles can achieve limits their evasive maneuvers and compels them to attack their targets from very narrow aspects. The turning radius of a hypersonic missile increases with the square of the velocity. Double the velocity and the turning radius quadruples. As a result, it is actually easier for terminal defense systems such as the American Phalanx or the Russian Kashtun to engage hypersonic missiles than subsonic cruise missiles.
4. So far all we have witnessed from Russia's hypersonic missiles (or China's) have been consistent with very accurate inertial guidance to attack stationary targets. We have not observed any ability to attack moving targets. It is possible that Russia or China have this ability but have refrained from demonstrating it.
5. Hypersonic missiles might be difficult to track because of the plasma stealth effect. However; because of the enormous heat generated by aerodynamic friction, hypersonic missiles are easy to track with infrared imaging systems. No plausible decoys would be able to follow the trajectory of a hypersonic missile closely enough to not be recognizable as decoys. They will decelerate to rapidly.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 28 2023 17:53 utc | 63
On Point #5, I was referring to difficulties to track with radar.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 28 2023 17:57 utc | 64
….. 20 Nato trained equivalent brigades and Nato mercenaries and over 12 brigades of conscripts were decimated in Bakhmut at relatively lower costs, against superior odd……..
32 brigades = 10+ old style divisions = 3 corps = a full field Army
If those figures are true, this is absolutely devastating.
Posted by: Exile | May 28 2023 18:03 utc | 65
@ BillB 62.
If art 5 then also art one> "The Parties undertake, as set forth in the Charter of the United Nations, to settle any international dispute in which they may be involved by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security and justice are not endangered, and to refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations." Best!
Posted by: Walter | May 28 2023 18:06 utc | 66
There have never been so many courts and various bodies set up or planned - to prosecute Russians for alleged crimes in Ukraine and in relation to Ukraine.
Posted by: JB | May 28 2023 14:16 utc | 3
This is why Russia was a fool to support and fund the ICTY against Yugoslavia. Russia also didn't put much effort into exposing its lies, bias and likely murder of the ethnic Serb prisoners.
Even a Bulgarian wrote a book exposing the lies of the ICTY focusing a lot on its "star witness" (Erdemovic, a Croat mercenary from Tuzla), but Russia and Russians were lazy about the injustice against Serbs/Yugoslavia.
Posted by: MiniMo | May 28 2023 18:07 utc | 67
William Gruff | May 28 2023 17:43 utc | 59
Agreed. Erdogan wouldn't be my choice as UK PM*, but at this moment I'm sure the US would have loved to get rid of him. I have grudging respect for his tightrope walking ability between Russia, US, EU. The Russian nuclear plant will get built, inshallah we won't see NATO fleets in the Bosphorous.
*OTOH Erdogan does seem to care about his people (Turks). Damned if any recent UK leader has cared about the British people.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 28 2023 18:10 utc | 68
@ William Gruff | May 28 2023 17:43 utc | 59
Everything you say is correct.
To it, Russian side knows how to deal with him, claiming that he is the most complicated and demanding partner of them all.
Erdo might radically change its “neutrality” stance really soon. Although I do not think that he will take the risk of quitting the benefits he gets from being in NATO tomorrow, but he indeed might try to wiggle out of it rather soon.
That is, if Orban leads the way.
Tendencies are showing ever greater EU/NATO discontent with Orban, leading to probably at some point both ending in BRICS at some point.
How is that for a prophecy?
US led World are such bad losers that Erdo's winning must hurt them pretty badly, so much so that they, do not even report it on MSM front pages so far.
“There are still a few ballots to count, so not all is over …”
Kinda similar to Bakhmut changing itself into Artemovsk.
I just hope they do not 'JFK' him.
Posted by: whirlX | May 28 2023 18:12 utc | 69
Picking up from Don bacon. Post #1.
I too am spotting that rhetoric too, todays brush over the trash msm news, I sense a shift in what the sheep are being told.
Posted by: Scot1and | May 28 2023 18:15 utc | 70
@kinzhal
many barflies have engaged the topic, so let me add my 3 kopeks
We don't know much about Kinzhal - d'accord @Oldhippie
But it is likely a development out of Iskander, which has capablities to maneuver, inherited from the older Oka Komplex. Range of Iskander was limited to <500 km because of INF treaty.
Most ppl believe it slows down on impact (e.g. the youtube Channel Millennium 7 * HistoryTech, by an Italian aerospace engineer, highly recommended).
I suppose constant throttled powering, maneuvring being done by vector thrust (not by fins), firing the rockets in the terminal phase with full thrust.
Regarding impact, there is likely some modelling ... but I prefer experimental asessment, there should be some after 10+ Kinzhal having been fired until now. So, what does it tell us that the Ukrainian and Western side doesnt show what damage the Kinzhal did? Quite a lot, IMHO.
I don't think the Patriot was firing towards Kinzhal. Kinzhals were only started after the lauchchers had shown their position and gone empty (Kinzhal being overkill in this situation, obviously, used for PR reasons). The missiles may have been fired towards some baits and Kh-31 targeting the Patriot RADAR.
Posted by: BG13 | May 28 2023 18:31 utc | 71
More thoughts on the Patriot, Kinzhal issue.
The US put a ban on Patriot use after the strike. So "They could find out what went wrong". As far as I know the ban is still in effect. Patriot cant light up their radars without fear of getting hit. Seems something is very very wrong with the system.
Not only did Patriot not hit the missiles launched at it. It could not take out the aircraft that launched them.
Total Fail.
Posted by: Golddiggr | May 28 2023 18:33 utc | 72
JB | May 28 2023 14:16 utc | 3
Quoting the ICC as "international law" is a farce. It is not recognised by any of the worlds major powers (India, China, United States, Russia) and several of their "judges" are on the sanctions list (United States) and the international criminal fugitive list (Russia). It is a European toy that has already broken.
Posted by: Ed | May 28 2023 18:42 utc | 73
@BillB | May 28 2023 17:52 utc | 62
Why do you think RF moved immediately on Crimea post Nuland's Maidan?
And then begin constructing a bridge?
Posted by: Don Firineach | May 28 2023 18:49 utc | 74
"Ankara is now in NATO only so that they do not declare war on it," Hussein Erman Saluk, Turkish political scientist, on Solovyov live: "In Syria, the Americans support the so-called democratic forces, which are mainly formed from Kurdish militarized detachments. They are openly financed from the US budget, they pose a threat to the territorial integrity of Turkey.
At the same time, de jure, we are in alliance with Washington on NATO. There is also a disputed maritime territory, the eastern Mediterranean, where our so-called ally opposes Turkey's national interests. Ankara is now in NATO only so that they do not declare war on it"
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 28 2023 18:50 utc | 75
@Golddiggr | May 28 2023 18:33 utc | 72
More thoughts on the Patriot, Kinzhal issue...
The duel between the Patriot and the Kinzhal is a bit like the battle of the ironclads Monitor and Merrimack during the US Civil War. No immediate effects on the ground, but potentially huge geopolitical implications.
From Britannica:
Battle of the Monitor and MerrimackBattle of the Monitor and Merrimack, also called Battle of Hampton Roads, (March 9, 1862), in the American Civil War, naval engagement at Hampton Roads, Virginia, a harbour at the mouth of the James River, notable as history’s first duel between ironclad warships and the beginning of a new era of naval warfare.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 28 2023 18:56 utc | 76
The Graundian sez:
The moment has arrived: Biden must give Ukraine all it needs to win
That guy is terrible and a dangerous autistic idiot, serving the darkest powers to be.
Comments are also full of utterly stupid MI5/6/CIA infestation creatures.
Also still counting the Turkish votes.
The West is done and done.
Posted by: whirlX | May 28 2023 19:07 utc | 77
Unimperator no. 51
Hubris and arrogance; "hoist with their own petard".
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | May 28 2023 19:10 utc | 78
@Don Firineach #74
I suppose to establish "facts on the ground" and prepare Crimea both for a cutoff of land routes (which happened) and for a possible attack from the west/West. It's pretty speculative anyway, Article 5 has never been invoked against a state actor.
Posted by: BillB | May 28 2023 19:11 utc | 79
whirlX no. 77
He's absolutely dreadful. I don't read anything of his anymore.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | May 28 2023 19:13 utc | 80
Posted by: Golddiggr | May 28 2023 18:33 utc | 7 "The US put a ban on Patriot use after the strike"
Does the US know they did this? Does Ukraine know they did this?
The Patriot doesn't have the range to shoot down the airplane that launched the missile.
As to "Plasma Stealth":
"If anyone paid any attention with spaceflight, there is a section of re-entry where the craft would go radio silent. That is a simple demonstration of “plasma stealth.” The plasma created while reentering the atmosphere at high speeds energizes the air (which increases the lower it gets in the atmosphere) blocks incoming and outgoing radio signatures. During the early days of space flight, it even blocked radar contact. But scientists persevered and found out the frequencies and power needed to maintain radar contact with the returning spacecraft. But the radio blackout still remains the same until the returning spacecraft slows down enough that the plasma formed during reentry dissipates."
Posted by: Tim | May 28 2023 19:14 utc | 81
In its turn, the Kiev regime is asking for more and more weapons, which are allegedly still insufficient for offensive actions. Probably, one of the problems lies in Western weapons, but not in their quantity, but in their quality.
In March of this year, it was revealed that Ukrainian troops will be armed with American Stryker armored personnel carriers. Strykers should strengthen the counter-offensive potential of the AFU. However, it turned out that the vehicles sent to Ukraine had numerous malfunctions. According to unofficial sources from the front, 76% of Strykers in one of the units of the airborne assault troops of Ukraine cannot fully participate in combat operations. Of the 68 vehicles, 52 reportedly are in a faulty condition. In particular, Stryker has a large number of malfunctions in electronics and chassis. Ukrainian servicemen complain about non-functioning fuel pumps, communication systems, nitrogen supply, etc. In addition to technical malfunctions, Ukrainian forces are not able to fully service American vehicles.
Posted by: unimperator | May 28 2023 19:20 utc | 82
Posted by: BG13 | May 28 2023 18:31 utc | 71 " So, what does it tell us that the Ukrainian and Western side doesnt show what damage the Kinzhal did? Quite a lot, IMHO."
Why doesn't Russia show some satellite photos of the damage?
Misquoting "West of England Andy | May 27 2023 20:04 utc | 44" It’s probably too much to ask for Russia to post any verifiable links to back up.....
Posted by: Tim | May 28 2023 19:22 utc | 83
" "When addressing the claim that Wagner recruited 50,000 convicts, the first logical step is to determine what Russia’s total prison population was in 2022. Was it 10 million? 5 million? 1 million? No. It was 349,000 (which incidentally, is a huge accomplishment from a humanitarian perspective. In 2000, the prison population was more than 1 million).
Posted by: Иван Иванович | May 28 2023 17:38 utc | 57 "
You should look up US crime statics broken down by race to understand why that is. Additionally, the more " vibrant " Russia becomes the higher the crime rate will go up, I.E. see Sweden.
Posted by: Depolrable Commisar | May 28 2023 19:22 utc | 84
@ unimperator | May 28 2023 19:20 utc | 82
Ukrainian servicemen complain about non-functioning fuel pumps, communication systems, nitrogen supply, etc. In addition to technical malfunctions, Ukrainian forces are not able to fully service American vehicles.
But F-16....
Posted by: whirlX | May 28 2023 19:25 utc | 85
Why doesn't Russia show some satellite photos of the damage?Posted by: Tim | May 28 2023 19:22 utc | 83
What for?
Let the puffed-ups at NATO guess...No one knows what is a Kinzhal and what damage it does...except things underground go bang...and US AA systems die... :)
Posted by: ostro | May 28 2023 19:27 utc | 86
Congratulations to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on his great and well-deserved victory in Turkey. I know him well, he is my friend, and I learned firsthand how much he loves his Country and the great people of Turkey, which he raised to a new level of prominence and respect!Donald J. Trump
Posted by: ostro | May 28 2023 19:33 utc | 87
@81
"The Patriot doesn't have the range to shoot down the airplane that launched the missile".
Exactly. That is why the "Total Fail" rating. It can not even protect itself from attack. If the Patriot cant take out the missile delivery system. What good is it?
Sooner or later it will just be overwhelmed if Russia can just keep shooting at it with impunity.
Shooting off 130 million n dollars worth of missiles, to possibly take out a 10 million dollar missile. In not cost effective or sustainable.
Posted by: Golddiggr | May 28 2023 19:36 utc | 88
But F-16....
Posted by: whirlX | May 28 2023 19:25 utc | 85
The point of the F-16s is to have them maintained by US/NATO ground crews. The hope is that some of them will meet a Kinzhal which will drag the West further in.
Posted by: dh | May 28 2023 19:38 utc | 89
@kspr @36
One of the most successful Russian anti-ship missiles ever designed, the SS-N-22, confounded western defense systems for years (theoretically speaking, since so far as I know it was never used in combat against the west, like most such missile designs) because it employed a terminal weave a couple of degrees each side of the baseline course during the terminal phase. It was not particularly fast, but western defense systems would have had a very tough time taking it out because fire-control radars which direct defensive weapons employ algorithms to predict where the target will be at some future point in time so that the defensive missile and the incoming enemy missile arrive at that same point at the same instant. These algorithms rely on the target maintaining a fairly constant course and speed, and prediction of the impact point is based on the target not changing course and/or speed. A minor course correction repeated over the terminal phase forces constant recalculation of the intercept point, so that a firing solution is never established.
The defensive system fires its own missile at a predicted point where it knows the target will be. It cannot ever know that if the target's course keeps changing, even by a few degrees, and consequently cannot generate a lead angle. I don't know if the new hypersonics employ this technique, but if the missile slows to an interceptable profile prior to impact it would certainly make sense to add this known feature.
Posted by: ltexpat | May 28 2023 15:18 utc
Only an impartial, fair and credible court can properly establish who is a criminal, if we are speaking seriously.
Why? Because frequently what appears to be a crime with an obvious perpetrator turns out differently when put through a thorough investigation and the requirements of what needs to be proved,. For example, the person/s who bears criminal responsibility is someone other than the one that observers saw as the apparent perpetrator.
It is also important to bear in mind the difference between state responsibility (international public law) and criminal responsibility, which is always individual. Concrete human beings commit crimes (international criminal and humanitarian law).
The crime of aggression is a new crime in international law, added to the Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC). The Court can investigate and adjudicate the crime of aggression as of July 17, 2018, and only one year after the states party to the Statute have ratified the crime of aggression amendment.
The ICC has NO jurisdiction over the crime of aggression if committed by nationals of states not party to the Statute. Russia is not, (the US is not, China is not and others).
Hence the feverish plotting and planning by the transatlantic gang of states, I have to call them that, how to give their attack(s) on Russia and their virulent Russophobia a legal stamp in the form of an indictment and conviction of the constantly demonized Vladimir Putin. That’s why a number of investigative bodies collecting evidence of Russian crimes in Ukraine have sprung up, as if one s not enough, the already existing ICC. That is why the preparations for setting up a special tribunal for the crime of aggression to try Putin.
There is a tragic and comical aspect to all this - the more investigative bodies and special courts are set up so that the US &All feel assured that the evil Russians and the arch-demon Putin are punished for their alleged crimes, the less relevant the ICC becomes and the more the law and justice look like a farce.
Posted by: MiniMo | May 28 2023 18:07 utc | 67
I disagree totally with your post. Russia was absolutely right to vote for the establishment of the Yugoslavia Tribunal (ICTY). It was a unanimous vote of the UN Security Council. Everyone voted for, and that was a unique moment in the history of international criminal justice.
The ICTY has fulfilled its mission in an extremely difficult international environment. It has established the truth about the criminal destruction of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY), Tito’s Yugoslavia. That is an invaluable contribution to the historical record, to the peoples of the former Yugoslavia and the world.
The evidence gathered by the ICTY is enormous, rock solid and tested in more than 20 years of trials. It is available to the public, as is the trial record.
There was an attempt to subvert the law, and justice, coming from the US side. The law was restored, but an injustice was done. That has left a stain on the overall very good work of the ICTYl which has been under attack from all corners from day one to this day. The truth always is. But it will not go away and it can not be destroyed.
Posted by: JB | May 28 2023 19:40 utc | 91
The US is full of boast. Let the F-16s come, and they'd be blown out of the sky!
The US is quite brave at attacking poor countries, such as Granada...but, even sandal-clad Vietnamese and Afghans could kick out the US army. Now, trying to use the Ukraine as the cat's paw...and losing...
Posted by: ostro | May 28 2023 19:45 utc | 92
Posted by: bevin | May 28 2023 14:30 utc | 6
bevin, my good comrade. Let me say how much I appreciate your posts since I wandered across this bar. Remember, in the chambers of Inner Temple and Lincoln’s Inn, barristers who ‘legalise’ the process of wealth extraction are always on hand for the UK elite and corporations, earning a percentage of the loot. Naturally they’re less interested in justice than protecting the rigged system that keeps them so well rewarded.
Corrupted themselves, they show zero interest in prosecuting Blair, Campbell, Clintons, Bush senior and junior, Obama et al because these people sat atop their neo-imperial system.
It may have seemed off topic but yesterday’s discussion mentioned Corbyn. I’d say that he wasted an opportunity by not being ruthless enough, though I accept the practical points you listed which made this difficult for him. With no opposition in the UK, US, Canada, Australia, Europe, it’s little wonder and therefore not so off topic, that so many people hope that a multi-polar world order will rid these regions of the neoliberal dominance.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | May 28 2023 19:51 utc | 94
@Posted by: ostro | May 28 2023 19:27 utc | 86
The Russian and NATO military staff know, thats all that counts. The West already lost the 7/8ths of the world that is not totally subject to its propaganda engines, and certainly has no chance of infecting the Russian population, so Russia does not need to play social media and MSM games. The victory on the battlefield is what counts, and it is best for Russia to show public restraint and a lack of boasting with respect to the 7/8ths. The Western boasting, lying and bullying is now just reinforcing the 7/8ths view of it and its European vassals.
At some point Ukraine will disappear from social media and the MSM as the reality becomes too far from the "message" and the 2024 election campaign gets into full throw. Just like Afghanistan suddenly disappeared when it became obvious that the US had failed miserably. Just like the MSM will talk less and less about the Middle East as the Western defeat becomes more and more obvious.
The US MIC also needs to keep its expensive abject failures under wraps, although the 7/8ths are surely seeing that its toys are simply expensive profit-producing baubles rather than effective weapons. For those, Russia is once again showing itself to be the producer of much cheaper, much more effective, and much more reliable weapons. The AK-47 of weapons producers.
@BG13 @ 73
This item suggests skepticism on the part of the USA, although it is framed as 'Pentagon astonishment' that 'Ukrainian crews with only rudimentary training discovered a capability the Pentagon did not even know Patriot had'. As if. This is merely preparing the ground for plausible deniability, that the Ukrainians made up a story and the nice guys at the Pentagon were deceived.
"The United States thought for a long time, discussing whether to give us Patriots or not," Ivan Kirichevskiy, an expert at the Ukrainian military news publication Defense Express, told Ukraine's Radio NV, according to Newsweek.
"It turns out that our air defense forces with crash course training literally squeezed out of the Patriot a capability that the Pentagon did not think was possible."
I think you will agree this story is extremely unlikely, and is being reported in slightly mocking terms, never mind that nobody believes - or shouldn't - that the Patriot systems in Ukraine are being operated by 'crash-course Ukrainians'.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-squeezed-us-patriot-missile-141738691.html
@Posted by: Lev Davidovich | May 28 2023 19:51 utc | 94
Corrupted themselves, they show zero interest in prosecuting Blair, Campbell, Clintons, Bush senior and junior, Obama et al because these people sat atop their neo-imperial system.
These lawyers are bourgeois capitalist tools who are without ethics, if a communist government took over tomorrow they would happily serve it too. They are part of the pigs in Animal Farm. I just finished reading a biography of the Dulles Brothers, which is an excellent review of how these elite lawyers work (even though written by an author who leaves out many dark episodes). They are the consigliere's of the US capitalist mafia, organizing monopolies, price fixing, coups, murders and whatever else is needed by the bosses - rotating between state functions and their private practices; never really leaving their private clients interests behind.
David Talbot gets more into the dirt of these two disgusting human beings:
Also the games these "lawyers" and "public servants" played in Indonesia in the 1950s and 1960s:
Then we have the "human rights" lawyers who seem to be utterly blind to Western crimes, such as the ongoing illegal drone murders. Utter scum of the Earth.
Kinzhal hits on underground bunkers???
Reported earthquake in Kiev was actually transport delivering "powerful" Ukrainian "weapon" to front lines claims city mayor Klitschko.
Residents in Ukrainian capital reported unusually strong tremors during Russian strikes on Kiev (unverified footage above) but while locals believe it may have been earthquake, Kiev mayor insists tremors resulted from moving of unspecified "weapon".
https://t.me/IntelRepublic/20945
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 28 2023 20:16 utc | 98
@ Roger | May 28 2023 20:06 utc | 97
Then we have the "human rights" lawyers who seem to be utterly blind to Western crimes, such as the ongoing illegal drone murders. Utter scum of the Earth.
Well, when I see Israelis going to such court being prosecuted by the mix of Western and ROW lawyers/prosecutors for the numerous crimes Israeli state committed towards Palestinian people since 50s onwards than I might start believing in some sort of World justice and a UN credibility on the Human Rights field.
As this is not happening any time soon, if ever, I do not see any importance of spending 1 bit of internet on such subject.
We need to reshuffle the deck, at some point.
Posted by: whirlX | May 28 2023 20:17 utc | 99
You should look up US crime statics broken down by race to understand why that is. Additionally, the more " vibrant " Russia becomes the higher the crime rate will go up, I.E. see Sweden.
Posted by: Depolrable Commisar | May 28 2023 19:22 utc | 84
US incarceration statistics show a disproportionate number of Blacks in prison. However; African Americans comprise only 1/8th of the US population yet they commit about 3/5ths of all homicides and nearly 3/4ths of all gun homicides.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 28 2023 20:19 utc | 100
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Bring on the lawyers. The US/UK-run International Bar Association has passed a resolution urging the UN member states to support the establishment of a special international tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. Executive Director Dr Mark Ellis talked with the Media Initiative for #HumanRights. He said: 'The world isn’t fighting just for the sovereignty of Ukraine, it is fighting for the observance of the world order'. . . .Where have we heard that before.
Posted by: Don Bacon | May 28 2023 13:48 utc | 1