RIA News
Volgograd court arrested until July 20 Nikita Zhuravel, who burned the Koran at the mosque.
Nikita Zhuravel, detained for burning the Koran in Volgograd, was taken to Chechnya, at the Grozny pre-trial detention center he is met by outraged residents of the region with posters “Hands off the Koran”, RIA Novosti correspondent reports.
Hum, the chair feet are square over there.

Posted by: la bouteille | May 27 2023 8:29 utc | 203

@ Richard Steven Hack | May 27 2023 8:00 utc | 201
IIRC, last year, didn’t you dismiss the “this ends with nukes” fear? If so, can you kindly briefly articulate what changed your thinking? I could “guess” it’s the “Natzo stubbornness displayed the past year”, as that has indeed increased my own concern. Just wondering.
Many respected MoA parons dismiss the idea and sometimes belittle the people who suggest it.

Posted by: natokraine | May 27 2023 8:36 utc | 205

Posted by: Exile | May 27 2023 5:43 utc | 177
Who commented:
“Another illuminating book on the topic of breakdown in command during Vietnam and collapse of the US Military is Dispatches by Micheal Herr This is more on the poetical side.
https://books.google.de/books?id=QcWumjEd-HIC&printsec=frontcover&dq=dispatches&hl=de&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=dispatches&f=false“
Hello again Exile, you mention an excellent book with a reliable content. Thanks for reminding me that I loaned this book but it was not returned. The lesson is, never loan books.

Posted by: Paul GV | May 27 2023 8:50 utc | 207

Re: Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 27 2023 8:18 utc | 206
Maybe Medvedev is thinking those territories would just be a headache for Russia, and since military bases will be built butted against Poland & Romania borders anyways, the border isn’t an issue. Frankly, for a Poland or Romania to reconstitute those territories would seem like a prize, but I can see them also having years of problems assimilating them.
I think Medvedev is just throwing stuff out there like everyone else is, I think he & Putin and all the military are aware that the only “end” to this, ior thus ends with a NATO/US/UK/Russia conflict anyways, where Poland & Romania are one of the first to go with their toys.
It may go nuclear, but it’s not needed. I mean Russia can handle NATO without Nukes.
You mentioned earlier about “escalation” and the flimsy responses that are hardly reassuring, well, right now as we know, it only takes one party bent on war to bring it to pass, I see nothing that’s changed the intent of the West to create conditions & execute another World War.
We had an oil embargo against Japan, and the UK was initially funding Hitler. Was anyone “surprised” by a WW?
I know that’s ridiculously simplified, but one can hardly be “unsure” at this point about WW3, as for Nukes?
Weren’t they used also? Is anyone really still pretending the US didn’t KNOW the devastation it would cause?
I know, I know, I read the “joint communique” about how all nations are in agreement “never to use” blah blah blah…
Again, for me, I see no evidence of Nuke Warfare NOT in our future, so unless there is evidence of de-escalation, it’s a done deal. And I have already written my letters, done my protests, called my “electors” and the “responses” I get, albeit comp generated probably, is “defending democracy”, “autocratic Putin” “support Ukraines struggle for freedom “…so , again no evidence WW3 isn’t going to happen.
That’s why I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about whether Poland gets some territory or Romania get that piece, because in the end, without contradicting evidence, they’re ash heap holes.

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 27 2023 9:06 utc | 209

Posted by: Exile | May 27 2023 5:43 utc | 177
Not just fragging but Foding by disgruntled maintenance crews, ‘accidentally’ leaving objects to be ingested.

Posted by: Milites | May 27 2023 9:17 utc | 211

Posted by: mo3.1 | May 27 2023 9:19 utc | 218
That border in Korea is the reason West Germany was allowed to re-arm. That war in Korea is the basis of the Deutschlandvertrag 1952. The defeat of France at Dien Bien Phu is the reason for the Paris Treaty 1954 which was more advantageous to West Germany than the 1952 Treaty and the basis of West Germany joining NATO.
There is so much linkage between Korean War and West Germany in 1950s that you would need a very poor education in history not to know about it.
You might even suspect Stalin okayed Kim Il Sung invading the South simply to test the Americans over Berlin

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 27 2023 9:45 utc | 213

Pentagon Generals totally blown away by the sheer brilliance of Kiev‘s super genius use of the Patriot AD missiles ( sic)
https://www.merkur.de/politik/pentagon-ukraine-krieg-usa-patriot-luftabwehr-russland-putin-kinschal-rakete-kiew-92302636.html

Posted by: Exile | May 27 2023 10:00 utc | 215

Posted by: natokraine | May 27 2023 8:36 utc | 210
Well, frankly, I can’t remember what I may have said then. Perhaps I was referring to the non-starter of Russia using nukes. In any event, clearly the escalation continues, and it becomes apparent that the neocons aren’t going to stop. As The Duran guys say, the neocons have no “reverse gear” – just double down.
I guess I simply have to agree with Martyanov that these people are lunatics and imbeciles, and don’t understand that, as he put it, you can’t escalate when you don’t have escalation dominance – meaning ultimately Russia can defeat NATO entirely and probably including the US. The problem is the consequences of that stoppage. And as I’ve said, I don’t see anyone in a position to stop them other than Russia (and possibly China).

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 27 2023 10:19 utc | 217

Posted by: Milites | May 27 2023 8:44 utc | 211
“Russia will get to the Polish border if she has the military capability to do so, if not she’ll have to settle with the Dneiper line.”
As I’ve said many times, it’s a physical impossibility for Russia to lose this war. Therefore getting to the Polish border is not a problem.
“It won’t be a strategic choice dictated by a NATO timeline of ‘when the nukes fall’.”
Of course not. If nukes fall, we’re at WWIII – whether Russia gets to the Polish border then is irrelevant.
“So far she has not demonstrated the capability to do either, which does not mean she lacks it, just that she has not exercised it.”
Russia doesn’t need to “demonstrate” anything. The capability is there – just look at the military balance. You are correct that Russia has not exercised it, because for whatever reason that is the General Staff and the political leadership’s intention.
“If this were being refought with 80’s capabilities, Russia would have been at the Polish border in less than two weeks; however, the butcher’s bill would have been horrific and it’s unlikely it would not have had a crippling impact on their country.”
True, but irrelevant. If this were re-fought with the 80’s circumstances, NATO would have half a million troops in Europe, the US would be able to come the rescue, etc., etc. So that point is moot because this isn’t the 80’s, Russia has a far stronger force than NATO and Russia has the capability to interdict an US intervention short of nuclear war.
“So the analysis boils down to either either cannot execute the drive for the border, they can but the timing is wrong, or they have no intention of doing so.”
No, the analysis does not boil down to that. As I’ve said, there are other factors involved, most of which we don’t know at all. My belief is that Russia is managing NATO’s reaction to the conflict to avoid NATO getting hysterical and starting WWIII. Russia is also avoiding the sort of casualties one takes when one uses the “bull-rush” method of an offensive. Russia remembers the casualty rate in WWII and doesn’t want to subject the current electorate to that sort of thing.
As I say, there are probably many other reasons for the pace of the SMO. Since as I and Martyanov and everyone else has continually asserted, no one but the Stavka knows the plan or the timetable. So it’s impossible to say why the war is being conducted and paced as it is. All we know is that it is – so far.
“Having studied the rise-fall and partial rise of the Russian Army, I’m less than sanguine about their ability to launch large offensives…”
Nice statement. No specifics. An assertion like that means absolutely nothing without specific reasons to back it up. Provide those reasons or I have to just dismiss it.
“Even in their heyday, the ‘seven days to the Rhine, two weeks to the Channel’ was a fanciful timetable, and only achievable by integrating the release of nuclear weapons into the offensive plan, from the start.”
Once again, the 80’s are not relevant here. In the 80’s, it was widely acknowledged that NATO forces (including the large US force in Europe) in Europe were only hoped to hold the line until the US could reinforce. And it was expected that NATO might have to resort to at least tactical nukes to achieve that. Completely irrelevant to the present day when Russia can interdict US forces moving by air or sea to Europe to reinforce. In other words, it’s a completely new ballgame.
“‘The Russian General Staff doesn’t do “hasty”.’ True, but they do historically plan to execute operations, of this sort, with great haste on timetables that are highly vulnerable to any organised resistance.”
Again, specifics, please. I don’t have a detailed history of Russian operations in WWII or anywhere since. It seems to me that Syria was very well organized, but of course that has nothing to do with “real war”. And I suspect Russian WWII history is not really relevant to the current state of affairs, as many have said.
“The shambolic scenes and composition of columns being ambushed suggests a failed coup-de-main”
The Russians were in a hurry to gain ground, pin the Ukrainian forces in place to avoid a counteroffensive, and in the case of Kiev, both pin forces and try to scare the regime into negotiating. Once the required objectives were obtained, everyone fell back into defensive positions and began the “ground and pound.” Sure, there were some cases of Russian columns outrunning their flank support and logistics and running into heaver Ukrainian units than the specific unit was equipped for. It happens. Study some of the reports from the 2003 Iraq invasion. I followed that closely on Iraqwar.ru and things didn’t always go to plan for the US, either, against far inferior forces than Russia was up against.
“as a result of a successful Western intel operation to paint a false picture of the situation on the ground,”
I’ve heard that claimed by people like Ritter. I’ve seen zero evidence that was true. AFAIK it’s purely speculation, unless someone can cite a high Russian official admitting that was true. Given that Russian intelligence had people all over Ukraine, probably including inside the Zelensky regime and the Ukrainian military, plus the first or second best ISR in the world, I find it highly implausible. Again – evidence or it didn’t happen.
“setting them up for attacks by units using tactics they’d practiced for eight years and using weapons perfectly suited for t” task.”
Again, specifics. What specific incidents occurred where Russian units were caught off-guard by Ukrainian units and what specific Ukrainian tactics and NATO weapons were the cause of Russian failures.
“So no, the timing was not right, it was a shambles with failed air-assaults, units running out of fuel, AD columns being ambushed and the BTG’s Achilles heel (lack of dismounts) brutally punished.”
This all sounds like stuff straight from Strelkov and assorted Telegram channels. I could give BTG problems some credence, but since the operation has continued to function perfectly well to date, apparently those little tactical issues have zero relevance to the overall operational plan – as most of the military experts have explicitly said.
“To deny there was an initial problem with the SMO’s execution ironically denies the Russians credit for their real successes, a synchronisation and rapid-recalibration of the political and military objectives and with a speed and efficacy that the Roman Empire would be jealous of.”
Which negates and in fact has nothing to do with the overall question of what the overall operational plan is and whether Russia has the resources to achieve it.
So that was an entirely wasted set of assertions. If all you intend to do is raise tactical issues and questions about the overall competence of the Russian military, none of that follows that Russia is not capable of doing what I say they need to do. Especially when neither you or anyone else can point to any capability (short of nukes) on either the Ukrainian or US/NATO side which is capable of preventing Russia from achieving whatever its goals are.
I grow continually suspicious of how many people in these threads – even those who are not obvious “concern trolls” – seem to have no other purpose but to question whether Russia can defeat Ukraine.
Frankly, it’s risible that the question even arises. As I’ve said repeatedly, it is a physical impossibility for Russia to lose this war short of nukes being deployed against Russia. A simple count of the relevant resources on each side is sufficient to establish this beyond any doubt.
The only people who doubt that are 1) people with an agenda, 2) people who don’t understand the military balance and relevant military capabilities of the sides and the operational experience of the sides (as Martyanov says, no one in the US has ever seen a war like this nor have they prepared for such a war, whereas Russia has, even if we have to go back to WWII), or 3) both.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 27 2023 10:51 utc | 219

‘The Russian General Staff doesn’t do “hasty”.’ True, but they do historically plan to execute operations, of this sort, with great haste on timetables that are highly vulnerable to any organised resistance. The shambolic scenes and composition of columns being ambushed suggests a failed coup-de-main, as a result of a successful Western intel operation to paint a false picture of the situation on the ground, setting them up for attacks by units using tactics they’d practiced for eight years and using weapons perfectly suited for the task. So no, the timing was not right, it was a shambles with failed air-assaults, units running out of fuel, AD columns being ambushed and the BTG’s Achilles heel (lack of dismounts) brutally punished.
The above is a direct parrot of NATO/MI6/CIA propaganda….
I challenge anyone to document “Columns being ambushed”….. “failed coup-de-main”….”failed air-assaults”….”units running out of fuel”…
Apparently the poster does not understand the purpose of the vertical insertion into the air base NW of Kiev, nor the “column” moved toward Kiev at the beginning of the SMO….
I’ll recap…
The STAVKA determined that NATO/UkroNazi planners hoped to tie down Russian/DPR/LPR forces in an attritional frontal attack on their fortified front line, while their main thrust would drive to Crimea for the purpose of taking same.
The STAVKA chose to threaten Kiev/Kharkov for the purpose of forcing the UkroNazis into dividing their forces to protect those cities, which happened.
The southern flank thus being lightly defended, the Russians charged north and west taking the ZNPP, Kherson, and much of Zaproizhe region, thus creating a land bridge from Volgograd to the Deniper River, and beyond.
From Kherson, the Russians hoped to take lands further west, possibly surrounding Odessa.
In the process, the Russians destroyed the First UkroNazi army, and forced the Ukies to the negociation table in Istanbul.
NATO stepped in via Boris Johnson, stopped the diplomatic initiative, and created the second UkroNazi army.
This forced the STAVKA to bring in Suvrokin, who rationalized the contact line, armoured same, and organized for an attritional war wherein the Ukies did the attacking, and the Russians did the killing.
This destroyed the second and third UkroNazi armies, the latter at Artemovsk.
At the moment, NATO is trying to organize the fourth UkroNazi army. For which they need to buy time.
Hence talk of F-16(s), Abrams and Challenger tanks, and DU ammo.
The DU ammo turned into a fiasco, when the Russians destroyed the ammo dump where it was stored, together with material for the Ukie dirty bomb, conveniently at a time when a stationary high created SE winds over the site, thus carrying the RadioNuclides across western Ukraine and into Poland, Germany, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, and the UK.
Now, the Russians are on a campaign to find and destroy all Ukie ammo and fuel dumps, and assembly areas.
This is a failure???
INDY
This caused

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 27 2023 10:54 utc | 221

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 27 2023 9:06 utc | 213
“Maybe Medvedev is thinking those territories would just be a headache for Russia”
That’s precisely what everyone assumes the Russians think. I simply argue that common sense says you don’t give up territory to your enemies who will then use that territory against you any way they can. It seems almost impossible for people here to grasp that concept.
People also assume Russia can’t and doesn’t want to handle a bunch of disgruntled western Ukrainians. There’s zero evidence for that assertion, either on the capability side or on the side where Russia views its security concerns as overriding that notion.
“I think Medvedev is just throwing stuff out there like everyone else is”
Quite possible. It’s also likely he’s just blowing smoke out his ass to keep Poland confused.
“I think he & Putin and all the military are aware that the only “end” to this, ior thus ends with a NATO/US/UK/Russia conflict anyways, where Poland & Romania are one of the first to go with their toys. It may go nuclear, but it’s not needed. I mean Russia can handle NATO without Nukes.”
I agree. Or at least that’s the risk. If not, then Russia takes Ukraine off the board, and counters NATO strategic weapons in Poland and Romania. Russia achieves at least a portion of its security concerns. Where it goes from there in terms of rolling back NATO further I haven’t given much thought to, as that’s too far away.
“You mentioned earlier about “escalation” and the flimsy responses that are hardly reassuring, well, right now as we know, it only takes one party bent on war to bring it to pass, I see nothing that’s changed the intent of the West to create conditions & execute another World War.”
Agreed.
“I know, I know, I read the “joint communique” about how all nations are in agreement “never to use” blah blah blah…”
I agree. I ignore all that stuff. When push comes to shove, states do what they want or have to.
“again no evidence WW3 isn’t going to happen.”
I don’t believe it’s guaranteed yet. As you say, that depends on whether Russia can defeat NATO conventionally, without using nukes, AND whether the US/UK/France decides to escalate to nukes. The odds are bad, but they aren’t 100 percent, either. But as I said, the risk rises the closer Russia comes to achieving its maximal goals in Ukraine.
“That’s why I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about whether Poland gets some territory or Romania get that piece, because in the end, without contradicting evidence, they’re ash heap holes.”
Very likely. All that sort of speculation is a waste of brain electricity, which is why it irritates me so that people spend so much time on it without the slightest evidence other than their own speculation that it will happen. My arguments are based on what I see is the objective requirements of Russian security and that simply has to entail going to the Polish border and putting a Military District there with the whole nine yards of Russian capability.
It’s not on the same level as how everyone else thinks:
1) Give Poland western Ukraine.
2) ????
3) Profit!

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 27 2023 11:14 utc | 223

Somewhere in a particularly American-mindset everything is a prelude to using nuclear weapons. It must be because USA is the only nation to have used them and it did it far from home on much the same people as they stuck in concentration camps in California…………
I do not believe ANY political authority considers the use of nuclear weapons and I doubt any policymaker in the military does either – the consequences are self-annihilating
It is the clear mark of the child to even suggest their usage except in the Endgame of Suicide……it would mean the end of the Continental United States

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 27 2023 11:24 utc | 225

Posted by: Sushi | May 27 2023 10:53 utc | 224
“If Poland contemplates the reacquisition of a portion of its former lands, and this causes it to second guess its NATO position, that is a big positive especially if such “splitism” results in a rethink of the present adverarial coalition.”
Exactly how does Poland doing a land grab “second guess its NATO position”? NATO and the US don’t give a shit if Poland grabs western Ukraine. They’d welcome it if it complicates Russia’s plans, even if they don’t know those plans. Some individual EU countries might grumble about “re-arranging borders”, but that will go nowhere compared to US/NATO influence, especially if Poland couches the land grab as “humanitarian intervention against Russia.”
How does that in any way cause a “split” in NATO?
More importantly, those Aegis Ashore installations will stay in Poland regardless of what Poland does in a land grab. I argue that Russia cares more about that than whether they want to deal with a bunch of disgruntled western Ukrainians who don’t like them. So I think if Poland tries it, Russia will view that as a complication they don’t want and will annihilate the incursion force.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 27 2023 11:38 utc | 227

So I think if Poland tries it, Russia will view that as a complication they don’t want and will annihilate the incursion force.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 27 2023 11:38 utc | 231

There is a scenario in which Poland and Romania receive a strategic strike (i.e. not just on military installations), then NATO backs off (and falls apart in the process) because nobody wants to die, and deadly intent has been demonstrated beyond any doubt, and that is how Russia’s demands for a security buffer are achieved, by simply erasing what was in that territory. And maybe it ends there.
If it does not end there, Poland is getting glassed regardless…

Posted by: shadowbanned | May 27 2023 11:47 utc | 229

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 27 2023 11:38 utc | 231
Mr. Hack,
Good to see you posting again. Try to calm down.
Yes, grabbing things is what NATO does, it is only a problem when somebody who is not NATO grabs something of has something NATO wants. “Democracy” means essentially that you let NATO grab it, whatever it is, if it wants it. Like with a child, sort of.
You can understand why it takes a while for people to learn how to interpret those phrases. But you will notice nobody much trys to refute it when you say for example that NATO is about grabbing things, because it is, always was.
— Bemildred

Posted by: Bemildred | May 27 2023 11:48 utc | 231

@Richard Steven Hack | May 27 2023 8:00 utc | 200
We know what some of them think.
See my Wars of Depopulation and Rushkoff, Douglas (2022). Survival of the Richest: Escape Fantasies of the Tech Billionaires. WM Norton and Co.

Posted by: Hermit | May 27 2023 12:02 utc | 233

Serbia staunchly stays neutral. A week later, War Party launches another round of chaos in Kosovo and Methohija.
Ever since Serbia beat NATO militarily in 1999, resulting in UNSCR 1244; NATOs been feverishly trying to break international law in the area.

Posted by: Exile | May 27 2023 12:11 utc | 235

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 27 2023 10:54 utc | 225
PeterAU1 generated a complete analysis of RF movements in the first phase of the SMO.
His analysis demonstrated the Russians prioritised the inspection/seizure of 404 bio weapons sites. This diffused Russian offensive momentum; as may be seen in the maps of the initial offensive, the Russians were making sprints in multiple directions to seize the bio labs before the evidence could be destroyed/removed. This diffusion of effort was not an optimum tactical approach which argues for schwerpunkt – a single fist of concentrated force.
Peter’s analysis is consistent with, and supports, my original inference the SMO was launched on a hasty basis due to concerns over 404 obtaining weapons of mass destruction as found in my post May 27 2023 2:42 utc | 140 describing the opening of the SMO as viewed on MoA.

Posted by: Sushi | May 27 2023 12:16 utc | 237

Seems like Ukronazis going berserk again today (or normal day?). Danilov tweets that they will kill all Russians anywhere and everywhere and Podolyak saying they will remove Lukashenko and join Belarus into Ukraine.

Posted by: unimperator | May 27 2023 12:38 utc | 239

Seems like Ukronazis going berserk again today (or normal day?). Danilov tweets that they will kill all Russians anywhere and everywhere and Podolyak saying they will remove Lukashenko and join Belarus into Ukraine.
Posted by: unimperator | May 27 2023 12:38 utc | 244

Which once again raises the question why those genocidal maniacs are still alive.
Just f***ing do it, and in the most demonstrative way possible, e.g. have an Iskander land on their heads when they are giving some press conference, or something like that.
Send a message. To the Russian people before everyone else.
The mood towards the Kremlin in the Donbass has been not exactly positive for quite a while, but now it is turning very sour in Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk too.
Yet the Kremlin is simultaneously silent and doesn’t lift a finger to stop the terror.
Which is playing directly in the hands of the West — that is exactly what they wanted.

Posted by: shadowbanned | May 27 2023 12:43 utc | 241

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 27 2023 10:51 utc | 223
As I’ve said many times, it’s a physical impossibility for Russia to lose this war. Therefore getting to the Polish border is not a problem.
Irrespective of how many times it is repeated, it remains a non-sequiter.
You earlier assert that “the neo-cons have no off ramp. They will just keep dialling up the pressure.” This increase in pressure will continue until something breaks. How that breakage occurs, and which side is ultimately favoured, cannot yet be determined.
This conflict is existential for both the hegemon and Russia. There are a great many possible future paths; few have yet been foreclosed. And the ingenuity of human beings struggling for primacy and survival suggests the possibility of future paths we have not yet conceived of, let alone debated.
What you present is known as Gambler’s Fallacy. The present roll of the dice does not condition the future roll of the dice. Past actions do not conclusively condition the future. You agree with this position when you note that Soviet strategy in WWII does not condition the present conflict in 404.
In fact, if you review Dr. George W Oprisko | May 27 2023 10:54 utc | 225 you find a description of the immediate past which contradicts your own. We cannot, at this time, even come to an agreed appreciation of the immediate present.
Since that is the case, any conclusions predicated on our imperfect understanding of the present are likely to be incorrect. Making predictions is difficult. Especially predictions about the future
You agree with Martyanov. Wonderful.
Martyanov is not an actor in these events; he is an observer. And there is nothing to prioritize his observations over a multitude of other observers.
Getting to the Polish border may be a problem the RF seeks to avoid. It is possible for Russian objectives to be achieved without an advance to the Polish border. You continue to dictate future events over which you have no control and you continue to present as fact your suppositions, or estimates, of future probabilities while forcefully discounting other, equally valid estimates of the same probabilities.
This is, at best, unwise.

Posted by: Sushi | May 27 2023 12:55 utc | 243

Posted by: Don Firineach | May 27 2023 11:20 utc | 228
Great post. Thanks for the link.
If Hill is correct (and I think she is) we will be forced to jettison a great many pre-conceptions and fashion an entirely new vocabulary to comprehend the changed future.
Many states sympathise with the African leader who said you get a bridge from China, but a lecture from the US or the EU.

Is a wry one sentence example of such re-conceptualisation.

Posted by: Sushi | May 27 2023 13:05 utc | 245

Berdyansk has been once again hit with at least two Storm Shadows/SCALP missiles.
Meanwhile Ukraine is asking for Taurus missiles with even longer range that can hit Moscow. As if anyone didn’t expect that once what should have been an absolutely red line — ALCMs — was not enforced.
Of course, the Kremlin is silent as usual.
But in reality this is a very serious problem — SCALP is not GPS guided but uses terrain scanning so it cannot be jammed, and because it flies very low and Russia doesn’t have full AWACS coverage, it can only be intercepted by short-range point defense as the missiles are often detected too late. But short-range point defense cannot be everywhere — there are only so many Pantsirs — plus they are now flying decoy missiles too. So you see daily hits on Mariupol and Berdyansk. Just like last summer when the HIMARS was first rolled out (which eventually resulted in serious territorial losses), but this time much deeper in the rear. Information is now controlled much more tightly on the Russian side too, so we don’t know what is being hit, but we have to assume that NATO intelligence is good and those hits hurt.
And yet the likes of The Duran are dismissing the SCALP as “another wonderweapon” that has been figured out, and, even though after more than a year of cheerleading people should have wised up to the reality of the situation, the fanboys are lapping it up…

Posted by: shadowbanned | May 27 2023 13:20 utc | 247

https://vk.com/wall701885602_74866

I have always been an ardent supporter of Transnistria and gave it all possible support. And without boasting, I can say that in the early 90s there was one of those who from Moscow provided him with maximum assistance. It was I who sent the famous Riga riot police there in the fall of 1991, who became the basis of the Dniester battalion, which played a big role in the defense and in the formation of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. It was on my recommendation that senior officers of the former Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Latvian SSR arrived in Tiraspol, who headed the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB of the republic there. And my merits were highly appreciated by the leadership of the PMR. In 2000, President I. Smirnov awarded me the Order of Honor by his decree.
And in the current most difficult situation, I am anxiously following what is happening in Pridnestrovie and around it. And I see with pain that as a result of mistakes, miscalculations, failures and, moreover, the betrayal of the leadership of the Russian Federation in relation to Pridnestrovie, it is practically doomed. Do you need evidence of betrayal? No one talks about it, but the prototype of the 2014 Minsk agreements on Donbass first appeared back in 2003 in the form of the infamous “Kozak Memorandum”, the main point of which was to push Transnistria back into Moldova through its “federalization”. Transnistria was a headache for both Yeltsin and Putin, and they did everything possible to get rid of it at any cost. Kozak and his company literally twisted the hands of the leadership of the PMR and, despite his categorical disagreement with the return to Moldova, through threats and ultimatums, forced the president of the PMR, I. Smirnov, to surrender and agree to the memorandum. But fortunately from signing the memorandum at the last moment for an unknown reasonPresident of Moldova Voronin refused. And this saved the independence of the PMR.
In the current military-political situation, Pridnestrovie is doomed. On the one hand, a powerful military grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been formed on the border with Ukraine, ready to invade the territory of the PMR. On the other hand, Moldova, or rather, Romania standing behind it, which sleep and see the return of part of the former Transnistria to Greater Romania. And they are opposed only by about one thousand seven hundred servicemen of the Operational Group of Russian Forces in the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova (OGRV PRRM), of which 450 people are part of the peacekeeping contingent. According to the signed international agreements, the number of peacekeepers in Pridnestrovie can reach three thousand people. And Pridnestrovie regularly appeals to Russia with a request to increase the number of peacekeepers to this number, but the Russian Federation, as a rule, keeps silent about this. Russian servicemen are armed mainly with small arms and therefore do not have much firepower. In the event of armed aggression from Moldova (Romania) or Ukraine, they will only be able to hold out for a few hours.
The situation with the ammunition depots in Kolbasna should be clarified. There is a myth that allegedly a huge amount of ammunition and military equipment is stored there, which, in the event of an explosion, will destroy all life within a radius of up to 100 km. Actually it is not. In Kolbasnaya in 2000, 41,000 tons of ammunition were stored. For comparison, the warehouse of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Balakleya in the Kharkiv region stored five times more, about 200 thousand tons. But most of the standard ammunition was taken to Russia in the 2000s and a lot of ammunition was destroyed on the spot. According to various estimates, about 10-15 thousand ammunition is now stored there, mostly substandard, with an expired shelf life. Moreover, mainly air bombs, which are hardly of interest to the Ukrainian army, which has a lot of air bombs in its warehouses due to a shortage of aircraft.
And in this regard, the bravura unsubstantiated statements of high-ranking Russian officials, who promise heavenly punishments to adversaries who dare to attack Pridnestrovie, cause indignation.
Here is today’s latest statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry on this matter: “No one should have any doubts that the Russian Armed Forces will adequately respond to the provocation of the Kiev regime, if any, and will ensure the protection of our compatriots, the Russian peacekeeping contingent, military personnel OGRF and military warehouses in the village of Kolbasna in Transnistria. Any actions that pose a threat to their security will be considered, in accordance with international law, as an attack on the Russian Federation,” Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Mikhail Galuzin said.
The question arises: “And how, in the current situation, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation can adequately respond to the provocations of the Kiev regime, in the event of an attack on the Russian Federation in Transnistria? Why do they not adequately respond to an attack on the Russian Federation in the Crimea, Donbass, Bryansk, Belgorod areas in other subjects of the Russian Federation?
It seems that our Foreign Ministry lives by the principle: “The main thing is to crow, but at least don’t dawn there!”

Posted by: shadowbanned | May 27 2023 13:23 utc | 249

https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7757

UKRAINE IS TRANSFERING THE WAR TO THE TERRITORY OF RUSSIA. PROBABLY, THIS IS THE OPTION OF THE APU’S OFFENSIVE
First, reconnaissance drones began to fly into our border areas. Then the shock drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – they hit military facilities, warehouses and bases, and reconnaissance drones, meanwhile, flew deep into Russia.
Then rockets went into canonical territory (NATO promised not to allow such shooting at Russia), and attack drones, taking off in the central regions of Ukraine, are already hitting the Moscow Kremlin, strategic aviation bases, and various military facilities throughout the Western part of Rus’.
Well, now the direct seizure of territories has begun. Responsible persons claim: this is a sabotage raid. But stop! If we had not started to squeeze out these two companies of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they would have remained, and even help would have come.
I have not discovered anything secret and secret? I do not write about the reaction of the military and, in general, the security forces and special services. I would like, of course, to highlight the juicy details to the people …
And now the seizure of Russian canonical territories is underway in the Bryansk region. It remains, quite calmly, to state that they are fighting against us for real. We somehow try to pretend that nothing serious is happening. Well, it doesn’t happen, and it doesn’t happen. Everything somehow disappears by itself, wins by itself.

Posted by: shadowbanned | May 27 2023 13:29 utc | 251

to Sushi | May 27 2023 12:16 utc | 242 ..
I also agree.
Still find it amazing that the “NATO” public don’t seem to regard the presence of numerous (specifically) US biological warfare development laboratories in various overseas countries (not just Ukraine) as sinister or even a bit odd.
Or has Western mass-media simply managed to ‘disapear’ their existence?

Posted by: Cynic | May 27 2023 13:50 utc | 253

MODreport summary: Nato continues losing everywhere.

Posted by: unimperator | May 27 2023 14:06 utc | 255

From Ukraine Watch Telegram Channel…
https://t.me/ukraine_watch/3298
A table of Ukrainian losses is published by Prigozhin’s media. The result of the Wagner PMC’s work. Since March 2022 72,000 Ukrainian military personnel, 309 tanks, 566 IFVs, 1,134 armoured vehicles, 83 MLRS, 379 depots with BK and fuel and lubricants etc. have been destroyed.
I saved the table as a jpg. Posting it to my VK account.
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 27 2023 14:08 utc | 257

@suchi #259
Let’s agree with the great unknown Chinese sage that “we live in interesting times”.
Are you familiar with the useful terminology of Complex Adaptive Systems Theory? The concept of “Emergence” appears to be designed to capture much of the present – even if we cannot fully understand it – but we can be aware of it.
Complex Adaptive Systems [intro. 10 mins]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWhkUne8T68

Posted by: Don Firineach | May 27 2023 14:22 utc | 259

. . .from NYTimes, May 27
‘It’s Time’: Ukraine’s Top Commander Says Counteroffensive Is Imminent

A blunt statement, accompanied by a slickly produced video of Ukrainian troops preparing for battle, appeared designed to rally the nation and to spread anxiety among Russian forces.
Ukraine’s top military commander signaled on Saturday morning that the nation’s forces were ready to launch their long-anticipated counteroffensive following months of preparations, including recently stepped-up attacks on logistical targets as well as feints and disinformation intended to keep Russian forces on edge.
“It’s time to get back what’s ours,” Ukraine’s supreme military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, wrote in a statement. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 27 2023 14:49 utc | 261

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | May 27 2023 14:48 utc | 265

Shadowbanned is right. It is time to take out the leadership and crush the Ukrainian state, once and for all. This should have been done first.

Taking out the ‘leadership’ will have no real effect.
They just get replaced with more empty meat puppets.
Who will now stand on the shoulders of martyrs …
Putin saw to the heart, where few others can see:
“Break the back of the Ukrainian military first. Leave the leadership alive to deal with the same.”
Once you break the back of the AFU, you break the strongest European army.
You break NATO.
A broken army led by humiliated leaders will stand in shame before NATO nations.
And those nations will hurl their anger against the entire leadership structure that brought them to that point.
And in their inward-turned anger they will forget about Russia and it’s people.
There will be no place for those leaders to run.
They won’t be able to stand on the shoulders of martyrs.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 27 2023 15:10 utc | 263

When Russia reaches the borders with Poland, all those western trained nazi will be relocated to England America and Europe.
Think about the consequences of that !
It would be an exelant weapon for Russia to employ/deploy.

Posted by: Mark2 | May 27 2023 15:35 utc | 265

Posted by: rk | May 27 2023 15:40 utc | 273
Nice if you could include links with your updates. I can usually find a report for the same event but not always.

Posted by: anon2020 | May 27 2023 15:50 utc | 267

@ Melaleuca | May 27 2023 4:23 utc | 153

What has Shoigu done, except sunbake bare-chested with Putin?

“Shoigu began his great career as head of Emercom, the Ministry of Emergency Situations. He built the massive capacity of that ministry to deal with fires, large scale terrorist bombings, floods, etc. Particularly, the airlift capabilites of Emercom where lessons learned that were post-2004 begun to be replicated in the Russian military.
We saw in 2014 and onward the massive military exercises whereby Eastern military districts airlifted in very rapid fashion men and machines to the West or South and so on with the West and Southern districts to the East. This demonstrated to the US and NATO that Russia could insert hundreds of thousands of men and their equipment from anywhere in Russia to anywhere in Russia (or the near abroad) in a snap of a few days. Such lift would take the US or NATO months to achieve. And Russia has done this many times in recent years, publicly demonstrating “Shoigu’s model” of massive airlift capability.
Thus, the modernization of the military was demonstrated in Emercom first, and that was Shoigu’s success.
The weapons development and success of the last ten years also shows a collaboration of Putin and Shoigu, as real combat and the necessity to test and improve weapons has been on-going in Donbass and Syria.
Shoigu is a man of great practicality. An extraordinary leader, creative and frugal who is also wise and now symbolic of the nation’s sovereignty and integral strength.”
This was a below-the-line comment made by Larchmonter in response to a 2018 interview of Shoigu following the successful intervention of Russian forces in Syria.

Posted by: cirsium | May 27 2023 16:10 utc | 269

anon2020 | May 27 2023 15:50 utc | 274
The Belgorod news is on tass.com/emergencies/1623913. The other explosion appeared as videos on multiple tg channels, nothing official that I can find, but it’s just a few hours old.

Posted by: rk | May 27 2023 16:33 utc | 271

The one thing that the Banderites are short of is martyrs. Their long existence has been one massacre, pogrom, after another. Their ‘resistance’ posture is not guerrilla warfare but serving foreigners ss Concentration Camp guards or paramilitary police.
Posted by: bevin | May 27 2023 13:14 utc | 251
———————————————————
Martyrs die in highly visible ways.
Those who just disappear and are buried in unmarked graves are not remembered as martyrs.
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 27 2023 13:22 utc | 251
———————————————————-
But you assume that you know who is buried in those unmarked graves. I suspect, but do not assume, that most of them are Russian speaking men and civilians, many of them shot in the back by Banderites.

Posted by: Ed | May 27 2023 17:10 utc | 273

@ Richard Steven Hack, §202:
No belittling. You´re one of the best in the bar.
Agree totally re: Medvedev and western Ukraine. It´s probably another bone to the western pundits to waste their time.
At the very least, Galicia and Rumania will be occupied but they may then be used as bargaining chips. Poland would get Galicia and Rumania Bessarabia on condition they turn over their Aegis Ashore systems, withdraw from NATO and forbid any foreign troops on their territories. They can stay in the EU if they want to continue wasting their citizens´ taxes on bloated, useless, expensive, obstructive bureaucracies. But no military involvement with the EU whatsoever. Strict neutrality only.
Not sure whether you´ll see this because the pub opening times seem rather arbitrary. Why not clock over to a new thread regularly, say every 300 posts?

Posted by: John Marks | May 27 2023 17:47 utc | 275

John Marks | May 27 2023 17:47 utc | 277

Why not clock over to a new thread regularly, say every 300 posts?

If such a rule was in place, would anybody want to write post #290 ? Or would they do it as part of a race towards the new thread, securing the low numbers there for themselves? I doubt that it would lead to better threads.
There have been a number of posts about changing the MoA policies, but none that convinced me, with one exception: It is a good idea to protect against identity stealing trolls by adding a small hash to the “posted by” line, generated from a passphrase that must be supplied on every posting. The “trolls” would become visible to everyone by their inability to reproduce the hash.
A minor proposal, by myself, is the following one: upon deleting a post, the system should produce a tombstone post, saying something like: post 343: deleted. This would help to keep the numeration of all other posts unchanged and would preserve everybody’s references to each other’s posts.

Posted by: grunzt | May 27 2023 18:51 utc | 277

Posted by: John Marks | May 27 2023 17:47 utc | 276
As it happens, since I posted a lot last night, I did see your post.
What you suggest may be possible. But there’s one problem: Is Poland “agreement-capable”, given their rulers’ dislike for Russia? What guarantee does Russia really have that Poland would stay out of NATO and insure the Aegis Ashore stays out?
That will always be the rub from now on: since Minsk was a sham, not to mention the various strategic arms treaties the US broke, Russia simply cannot trust the West. If there is a major change in ideology in the western capitals, then, perhaps – but not now.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 27 2023 22:30 utc | 279

Where is Senor Gonzales?

Posted by: OmDeva | May 28 2023 0:45 utc | 281

look

Posted by: MD Arman | May 28 2023 17:10 utc | 283

Re: Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 27 2023 8:18 utc | 201

In any event, if Russia does as he says, they will have lost the war. You just don’t hand over territory to your enemies off-hand for emotional (“we don’t like western Ukrainians because they don’t like us”) reasons. That makes zero sense.
If Medvedev thinks that solution is a good idea, he really hasn’t thought it through. Which, as I’ve said before, would not surprise me. I simply assume Putin and most of the rest of his team aren’t that dumb.
of course, as I’ve also said repeatedly, I could be wrong about how smart Putin and his team are. I simply assume that if I can figure out it’s a bad idea, so can Putin.
Everyone will now jump in and belittle me in some fashion, as usual.

Well yes – when was Western Ukraine – Lemberg – EVER a part of Russia?!?
Be specific with the dates.

Posted by: Julian | May 29 2023 3:41 utc | 285