Empire is completely insane. Polish retired general Waldemar Skrzypczak stated that his country should help dissidents in Belarus in case of “uprisings”. If they think they can do colour revolutions or more so stated insurgencies in a now nuclear state thats just madness.

Posted by: hankster | May 26 2023 17:01 utc | 4

Hopuum?
https://eurasiantimes.com/new-jas-39-gripen-better-suited-than-f-16-fighting-falcon-ukrainian-fighter-pilots-could-now-train-on-saab-jets/

Posted by: jpc | May 26 2023 17:05 utc | 6

Re: Brazil
That’s courage

Posted by: Exile | May 26 2023 17:12 utc | 8

@ Posted by: Milites | May 26 2023 16:58 utc | 3
Ukraine can’t push forward, but it can still defend, and retreat is not viewed as an option. Ukrainian morale still hasn’t broken. Russia is unwilling to kill as many soldiers as would have to die to make the war last. As long as Russia is not going on a sustained offensive itself, this war is going to be pretty static for the time being.

Posted by: fnord | May 26 2023 17:17 utc | 10

why IPs from Iran are banned from accessing your website?

Posted by: meme | May 26 2023 17:32 utc | 12

I believe that for as long as there are Ukrainians willing to go the the front, Russia will be willing to kill them.
It’s totally working so why stop…

Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 26 2023 17:41 utc | 14

RUSSIAN TAKING OF THE DONBAS:
Russia could take and secure the Donbas by early July 2023 by taking out Zelensky.
With General Valery Zaluzhny now out of the picture, the taking out of Zelensky would pretty much destroy the upper chain-of-command within the Army Forces of Ukraine (AFU).
This would lead to some confusion within the AFU and possibly their quick withdrawal to the West bank of the Dnieper River.
This is turn would mean Russia taking and securing all of the Donbas rather quickly.
If Zelansky is taken out within the next couple of weeks, the Russians could possibly have all of the Donbas by early July.

Posted by: young | May 26 2023 17:56 utc | 16

Some of you say that Ukrainian moral is still very high.
But how to break their moral?
Howe does it happenn in wars, do we have historical examples?

Posted by: srbin | May 26 2023 18:03 utc | 18

why IPs from Iran are banned from accessing your website?
Posted by: meme | May 26 2023 17:32 utc | 13
This website is hosted by a U.S. company (pair.com) which is probably just following sanctions and therefore doesn’t allow access by Iranian IPs.

Posted by: Zet | May 26 2023 18:17 utc | 20

Posted by: Milites | May 26 2023 16:58 utc | 3
There was a lot of talks some week ago that the “grand Ukrainian offensive” will be accompanied or preceded by terror and psychological attacks and campaign. The counter-offensive might have actually occurred already – the primary goal of which was the advance to the rear of Bakhmut to encircle it.
That offensive failed – Ukraine never announced the beginning of the offensive (as it did not succeed, if it would, they would have announced it as the beginning), but it’s quite obvious the offensive near Bakhmut was large in size.
Now they are already jawboning their way out of not having to attack in the south. Grind will continue until they either attack or are weakened enough for RUAF to push forward.

Posted by: unimperator | May 26 2023 18:25 utc | 22

it says
“The site owner may have set restrictions that prevent you from accessing the site”
I got this error this week.
didnt have this before.
Posted by: meme | May 26 2023 18:22 utc | 21
That message is error 1020 by Cloudflare and just means that the hosting company in question has instructed it (Cloudflare) to block Iranian IPs. I’m 100% sure that it is not Bernhard who has done that, it’s certainly the hoster, maybe even by accident…

Posted by: Zet | May 26 2023 18:46 utc | 24

Milites @ 3

Finally, will the Ukrainian Army collapse, revolt or engage in some serious blood-letting as Neo-Nazi control elements have their grip on power loosen and are confronted by the increasingly desperate majority militias?

This would far and away be the best outcome for everyone – the Russians of course, but for all the press ganged nations of the EU and Japan, China, the USA – its people anyway, the entire world, and last and foremost for Ukraine itself. Which is why it won’t happen, but hey, I’m open for a surprise.
There’s not been any signs of it, from where I’m standing the Ukrainians are fighting resolutely and bravely, but mutiny is something both sides conceal. Maybe armies collapse like people go bankrupt, little by little then all at once?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 26 2023 19:00 utc | 26

Quite a lengthy statement from the Russian Defence Ministry here: https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12468459@egNews

Briefing by Chief of Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Protection Troops General Lieutenant Igor Kirillov on U.S. military-biological activity
The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation continues to analyse the military and biological activities of the U.S. and its allies in Ukraine and elsewhere in the world.
We noted earlier that during the special military operation, documentary evidence was obtained confirming that employees of the Biosphere Reserve in Askania Nova, Kherson region, were studying the migration routes of migratory birds and selecting and transferring biological material abroad.
The task force of the Russian Ministry of Defence together with officers of the Federal Security Service and Rosselkhoznadzor have confirmed the collection and certification of avian influenza virus strains with a high potential for epidemic spread and the ability to cross the species barrier, particularly the H5N8 strain, whose lethality in human transmission can reach 40%. Remember that 1% of new coronavirus infections result in death.
Despite efforts by the Reserve’s staff to destroy the biomaterials by cutting off the power to the refrigeration units and destroying the cryopreservoir with liquid nitrogen, specialists from the 48th Central Research Institute of the Russian Ministry of Defence found traces of genetic material of highly pathogenic avian influenza, Newcastle disease virus, and avuloviruses even in the samples that had undergone decomposition.
According to the employees who remained in the Reserve, the Ukrainian side offered them a large cash reward for removing or destroying the research results.
Documents seized in the Reserve’s veterinary laboratory confirm the involvement of the Kharkov Institute of Veterinary Medicine in the work of the American UP-8 and P-444 Projects and preparations for the Flu-Fly-Way project.
Their goal was to evaluate the circumstances in which the transmission of diseases associated with economically significant infections may become uncontrollable, result in economic harm, and constitute a threat to food security.
It is necessary to emphasize that once more that the U.S. Department of Defense, an organisation that has nothing to do with the research of bird migratory routes, commissioned the projects.
We have already brought up the observed widespread bird mortality in the Askania Nova Nature Reserve in 2021, which experts think is infectious in nature.
The experiments being undertaken and a disregard for biosecurity regulations were recognised as the causes of the single-stage bird mortality.
Against this background, of particular concern is the increase in the incidence of bird flu in Russia and in European countries, where, according to the International Office of Epizootics, the disease has become a year-round disease with losses exceeding €3 billion since 2021.
Since the beginning of 2023, there have been 32 outbreaks of avian influenza recorded in Russia in all federal districts. In the last week alone, the disease was detected in poultry farms in the Kirov and Yaroslavl regions. Quarantine measures for highly pathogenic avian influenza have been imposed in Moscow since 17 May 2023.
At the same time, the total damage to the agricultural sector caused by the disease in the last three years has exceeded 4.5 billion roubles, and more than 10 million poultry have been eliminated.
African swine fever and foot-and-mouth disease, which pose a serious threat to food security, have never been recorded in the U.S., despite the fact that the U.S. has seen avian influenza epizootics since 2003. At the same time, the U.S. military is actively studying these economically significant infections outside the national territory in bio-laboratories located along the borders of its geopolitical adversaries.
This demonstrates once more that the U.S. is creating biological weapons components abroad, notably in Ukraine.
Recall that the United States published its National Biodefense Strategy in October 2022. The doctrinal paper identifies biological risk management as a top concern for the United States.
Washington intends to develop a U.S.-controlled architecture for preventing, responding to, and neutralising biothreats in U.S. national interest under the approved Strategy.
One of the areas of strategic development is the improvement of individual and group biosecurity methods for U.S. military personnel in different theatres of war. The goal is also to continue the study of area-endemic pathogens of particularly dangerous infectious diseases.
This is confirmed by another long-term planning document, the new U.S. DoD Biomanufacturing Strategy approved on 23 March 2023. I draw your attention to the fact that the strategy was developed specifically by the US military department. The document defines long-term goals for the development of biotechnology and the search for its military applications.
The claimed goal is to ensure technological sovereignty in the field of bioproduction and to outpace strategic rivals.
The amount of funding for activities within the framework of the approved strategic documents for the next five years will be about $90 billion. In addition, the U.S. intends to strengthen global control of the biological situation in the world and reserves the right to conduct ‘dual-use’ research, including outside the national territory.
In the post-Soviet region, the U.S. has already stepped up its military-biological activities. Pentagon contractors and civilian intermediates like the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Gryphon Scientific research company have taken the position of the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and Pentagon contractors. Work is scheduled to collect and genotype samples of the pathogens of three extremely hazardous illnesses indigenous to these regions—plague, anthrax, and tularaemia—under the cover of doing completely peaceful tasks in the states of Central Asia and Transcaucasia.
The U.S. government is achieving this by employing a tried-and-true scenario of purportedly ‘humanitarian’ collaboration.
First, issues related to the biological situation are brought forward. Intergovernmental agreements are then finalised after securing the line ministries’ interest in cooperating.
As a result, a bio-facility that is wired into a solitary biosurveillance system is built. The United States acquires ownership of all biological developments made in the nation, including collections of pathogens, and the laboratory infrastructure put in place is rendered ineffective without U.S. assistance.
I would like to point out that the number of biolaboratories in the United States with the highest possible BSL-3-plus and BSL-4 containment levels has increased significantly over the past few years.
According to a report by King’s College London, there are 25 active laboratories in the US and three under construction where research on highly dangerous viruses and bacteria is being conducted.
In accordance with the document, 18 additional BSL-4 laboratories will open in the upcoming years, the most of which will be situated in Asian nations outside the legal jurisdiction of the U.S.
There are concerns that these facilities will pose serious risks: they are located in densely populated areas, save on protective equipment, and lack effective biosafety regulations in the countries where they are based.
Furthermore, in the US Intelligence Community’s February 2023 Global Threat Assessment, the authors emphasise that, ‘there is no effective mechanism to control and address biorisk, and international surveillance bodies with competencies in this area are fragmented and lack authority’.
Despite compelling evidence from the scientific community, the U.S. government is unable to come to the correct conclusions and keeps engaging in murky biological operations globally.
Washington’s professed dedication to ‘global biosafety standards and norms’ really manifests as a rejection of international efforts to fortify the BWC and a blocking of the development of its verification mechanism.
It should be noted that the U.S. has never clearly stated its commitment to the safety of research carried out in biolaboratories under its control.
This is supported by a review of US National Institutes of Health documents that relate to safety violations. In the course of an investigation conducted by the Intersept independent company, more than five and a half thousand pages of incident reports were studied. It concluded that research carried out at universities in Washington, Minnesota, and Illinois led to in-lab contamination and created the risk of further spread of dangerous pathogens.
These statistics do not take into account incidents at military-biological facilities, a key one being the US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases at Fort Detrick. However, the Institute has repeatedly been the subject of investigations by U.S. federal agencies because of its non-transparent and unsafe activities.
In 2009, for example, its operations were suspended due to violations of the rules governing the accounting of biomaterials, creating risks of loss, theft and illegal trafficking of pathogens. Recall that it was this institute where microbiologist Bruce Evans, the prime suspect in the bio-terrorist attacks linked to the sending of anthrax spores to the U.S. in 2001, worked.
In 2019, federal regulatory agencies banned work on dangerous pathogens at Fort Detrick due to poor efficacy of effluent disinfection systems and numerous safety violations, which took almost a year to fix.
According to an official statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, it was during this period that localised outbreaks of pneumonia of unknown origin were reported in several areas of the U.S.
Systematic breaches of security requirements at U.S. biolabs have raised justifiable concerns in the global community.
In December 2019, for example, the relocation of the U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit Three (NAMRU-3) from Cairo to Sicily’s Sigonella Air Base has provoked an extremely negative reaction from Italian citizens.
According to the Italian media, the U.S. used the pandemic to divert public attention from the fact that the biolaboratory had been relocated. As L’Antidiplomatico notes, that ‘it is highly suspicious that the opportunity to spread the word about this laboratory was not taken, if on paper its purpose is to study health threats’.
I would like to recall that of all European countries it was Italy that was most seriously affected by the COVID-19 virus, and the Russian Ministry of Defence, at the request of the Italian authorities, promptly provided assistance to the Italian people at the height of the epidemic. However, not a single source mentions the activities of NAMRU-3 to protect Italian citizens, although the level of equipment of the facility allowed and allows for the full range of research with the new coronavirus agent.
Clearly, the redeployment of NAMRU-3 under the pretext of providing assistance was not intended to protect Italians, and the role of the biolab in the spread of COVID-19 has yet to be assessed.
No wonder that the decision by the Pesaro city authorities to construct a national biolaboratory sparked a wave of local protests and widespread pleas to state authorities given the deployment of a U.S. military biological facility in Italy.
Earlier, the Russian Ministry of Defence reported on the Pentagon’s establishment of the Electronic Integrated Disease Surveillance System (EIDSS). Equipping bioweapons facilities on the territory of other countries with such systems provides the U.S. with an opportunity not only to ensure the security of its military contingents at their deployment sites, but also to remotely monitor the activities of biolaboratories outside national jurisdictions.
The surveillance system includes U.S. Army and Navy laboratories as well as verification points located at U.S. military bases in different regions of the world. The core part of this network, which has been forming since 1997, is the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research. I would like to describe its activities in more detail.
Documents obtained during the special military operation show that for several years the Institute has been involved in training Ukrainian personnel as part of the Biological Threat Reduction Programme. Robert Lipnik, head of the epidemiology department, and his subordinates were involved in the training of Ukrainian specialists.
Representatives of the institute supervised military and biological projects UP-1 and UP-2, organised by DTRA, during which active collection of biomaterials of Ukrainian population was carried out. In the UP-1 project alone, more than 800 blood samples were collected under the pretext of studying the spread of tick-borne infections.
According to the documents in our possession, the Walter Reed Institute was actively involved in the 2014–2020 conflict in Donbas in studying the antibiotic resistance of microbes isolated from military troops of the AFU.
As part of this project, 813 microorganisms obtained from 162 patients were studied in four Ukrainian military hospitals located in different parts of the country and full-genome sequencing of 52 isolates was carried out.
It is understandable to wonder why the U.S. Army Institute would research the antibiotic resistance of microbes found in Donbass land. This provides more proof that the U.S. considered Ukraine’s territory to be a base for the entry of NATO military forces.
The Russian Defence Ministry shall keep tracking the operations of the agencies subordinate to the U.S. Department of Defense that are involved in creating bioweapon components.

A timely reminder, perhaps, that there is more to the SMO than the hurly-burly of offensives, counter-offensives and incursions.

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 26 2023 19:06 utc | 28

Will @1
Thank you very much for compiling the information and posting the links!

Posted by: lulu | May 26 2023 19:08 utc | 30

No-one is talking about how Wagner might be pulling out of the SloMO, meaning the SloMO is going to go even slower. And Prigozhin is now suggesting that the SloMO has backfired because the Ukraine now has more tanks and capable troops than previously. He is probably referring to the green Ukrainian troops thrown into the front lines who survive through luck or inherent ability thus becoming more capable in the process.
Definitely Ukraine can’t stay in the fight without extensive Western support, while Russia can shell indefinitely, so this SloMO could last quite a while unless the West collapses or Russia up’s the ante a bit.

Posted by: gT | May 26 2023 19:23 utc | 32

DPR says Mariupol was attacked tonight with “two long range missiles supplied by NATO”. Doesn’t say more

Posted by: rk | May 26 2023 19:31 utc | 34

Posted by: Jacq | May 26 2023 18:59 utc | 27
I think perhaps the ‘spooks’ have more secure forms of communication than this blog, though if there are any out there, ‘hi!’ (in code). You must be careful when you write though, curtains phraseologies are a bit of a give-away, speaking ‘above my pay grade’ as I ‘wax lyrical’ and ‘retrospectively muse’. Personally, as a conservative, disgusted at the conduct of my government, I gravitated over here to see if I could gain another perspective away from the official blue and yellow dyed narrative (or should that now be homophonically changed to reflect the slaughter?). I’ve stayed, been enlightened, crucially accessed media links blocked in the ‘free press’ and helped and been helped by numerous posters, who’ve reflected radically different, but challenging, perspectives to my own.

Posted by: Milites | May 26 2023 19:35 utc | 36

DPR says Mariupol was attacked tonight with “two long range missiles supplied by NATO”. Doesn’t say more

Posted by: rk | May 26 2023 19:31 utc | 36
TASS is quoting a Russian Defence Ministry report of interception of two Storm Shadows, among others: https://tass.com/politics/1623571

“Air defense capabilities intercepted a Grom-2 operational/tactical missile, ten rockets of the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system and two Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles,” the spokesman said.

So we can infer a subtle difference between ‘launched an attack which was intercepted’ vs ‘launched an attack which was successful’, wouldn’t you agree?

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 26 2023 19:40 utc | 38

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 26 2023 19:26 utc | 35
The Belgorod ops was led by GUR head Budanov, which had gathered (as BMA / Aleks put it) ideologically confused people. 70 of them were left behind and killed while the GUR operatives evacuated after the photo-ops on the border.
You are right, it is highly sophisticated and potentially dangerous.

Posted by: unimperator | May 26 2023 19:47 utc | 40

‘Certain’ not ‘curtains’ (hate spell check). Though perhaps some spies disguise themselves as drapers.
Posted by: Milites | May 26 2023 19:39 utc | 39
——————————————————
Spellchecker should go to Hello!

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 26 2023 19:51 utc | 42

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | May 26 2023 19:50 utc | 43
Wait a minute… we can’t have had the same code updates, because this:

“End this madness, stop the escalation and let sane minds negotiate a peace, before there’s any more death and destruction.”

decodes as: “My aunt is a windmill”…

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 26 2023 19:57 utc | 44

young | May 26 2023 17:30 utc | 11
*** … someone very close to Zelensky will betray him and give the coordinates of his locations to the Russians.***
Who will then not do anything — so removal of the Kiev cokehead would probably require there to be a false-flag event.

Posted by: Cynic | May 26 2023 19:58 utc | 46

srbin | May 26 2023 19:57 utc | 47
***I wonder, what would be good defense against such dornes? Guns, missals or other drones?***
Pulverising large areas of Lemberg?

Posted by: Cynic | May 26 2023 20:08 utc | 48

srbin | May 26 2023 20:11 utc | 51
*** I think we must be objective.
Ukraine is not weak and they are not stupid.
Respect your enemy.***
Then kill them.

Posted by: Cynic | May 26 2023 20:14 utc | 50

Cynic @52: “Then kill them.”
Respectfully, of course! 🙂

Posted by: William Gruff | May 26 2023 20:17 utc | 52

If you people can’t tell by now there’s no hope for you. The war is over. Zelensky won’t go back to Ukraine and no one will step up to take his place. So we’ll see some new peoples republics emerge this summer and maybe a separatist movement in the west. Good times.

Posted by: Lem Samuels | May 26 2023 20:24 utc | 54

With thanks to Alex Christoforou for bringing this to my attention today. Apparently a Danish top diplomat is urging Danes to go on holiday in Ukraine to show support for the people of Ukraine. My comment:
“Dark tourism in Ukraine… brilliant. I am sure Lars von Trier would consider a film on this if Bjork would agree.

Posted by: DR-Montreal | May 26 2023 20:45 utc | 56

Reporter Rudenko V:
The situation with the Belgorod region showed well what would have happened to the Rostov region if there had been no DPR and LPR.
I would put the question of who is protecting whom point-blank. Those who had to hold out for three days have been holding the lines for a year and a half and not only holding, but also moving forward. I am now talking about ordinary residents of Donbass who have not retreated a single step.
There would have been a war with Ukraine in any case, whether there would have been the DPR and LPR, or they would not have existed in nature. I think that the idea to support these Republics in 2014 was one of Putin’s most brilliant ideas. If they did not exist at the beginning of the war, now the battles would have been going on somewhere in the depths of the Rostov region, and maybe even further.
Donbass has taken the brunt of it and so far stands “not thanks to, but in spite of.”

Posted by: MiniMO | May 26 2023 20:58 utc | 58

Jacq 27
You’re funny.
Posted by: West of England Andy | May 26 2023 19:06 utc | 30
Scary shit. More proof that the US has gone completely to the dark side. Problem is, most Americans just don’t want to come to grips with it. I have a hard time myself.

Posted by: Mike R | May 26 2023 20:59 utc | 60

I did read somewhere that a Ukr Captain shot his CO when commanded to front line on a suicidal mission. So you may be right in more soldier revolts coming.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 26 2023 17:07
———————————————–
I saw that this morning on You-Tube. Looked real enough.

Posted by: Ed | May 26 2023 21:01 utc | 62

West of england andy no. 46
Oh mine goes:dot, dot, dot, dash, dot, dash, dash, dot, dash, dot, dot ……..

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | May 26 2023 21:02 utc | 64

Does anyone else think that the ad-hoc Ukrainian attacks, using drones, missiles and raiding parties were all meant to occur as coordinated actions before/during a major ground offensive and we’re part of the much promised ‘terror campaign’.
Posted by: Milites | May 26 2023 16:58 utc | 3
Yes to all. It could be practice, but I think there isn’t enough gear or enough plans to spare a bunch for practice. Though it could be the whole pre offensive terror campaign is actually this. This is plan A. A reasonable assumption given who advises Kiev.
But most likely it’s as you surmise. I continue to agree with you that while the collapse of the Ukrainian military (and possibly state) are now alway imminent, the timing is impossible to predict. It may be part of the reason for delaying the offensive, given that a failed grand offensive runs real risk of being the tipping point towards mutiny.

Posted by: Lex | May 26 2023 21:05 utc | 66

Posted by: DR-Montreal | May 26 2023 20:45 utc | 58
I dunno, the Dead Kennedys made some observations about holidaying in a war zone
Or a holiday in the sun, perhaps …

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 26 2023 21:08 utc | 68

Since except for one person, everyone ignored the two important posts I made from late last night, I’m reposting them here…

Posted by: James M. | May 26 2023 8:15 utc | 149
“So, no Ukraine isn’t getting any nuclear weapons. It’s just hyperbole by Medvedev.”
I agree. However, that isn’t the question. The question actually is: will the US use nukes? We know Russia won’t because it’s against doctrine. The US has no such limits. The US has already decided that first-use even against non-nuclear countries can be done. And Russia is a nuclear country.
Of course, the immediate follow-up question is: How? Again, this is not how war is fought. You don’t try to “sneak” a handful of nukes against an enemy. Too risky. A limited op can go wrong in all sorts of ways. The only safe use of nukes is large-scale or decapitation. Decapitation doesn’t work against Russia – it has a “dead hand” system that launches everything if command is taken out.
Large-scale doesn’t work either both for the same reason and because Russia will detect and retaliate as soon as it is certain it is a large-scale attack. This is called “Mutual Assured Destruction” and it’s worked for 75 years.
The problem comes with the following: 1) a successful first strike that neutralizes the bulk of the Russian (or US) arsenal. Problem with that is the nuclear triad: 1) missiles, 2) planes, and 3) of primary importance, submarines. Both sides have all 3 and especially submarines, some of which are always on patrol with enough warheads to severely damage the attacking country.
But the US has been placing Aegis Ashore installation near Russia precisely for the use case of taking out Russia’s retaliatory and command capability within a short time frame during or immediately preceding a massive first strike. This is precisely what Putin understands and why he is so adamant about getting those Aegis Ashore installations out of Poland and Romania. And why I say this is the number one motivation for the Ukraine war.
The real problem is not the “how”; it’s the “why not?” Because the people running the US government, as Martyanov constantly harps on correctly, are fucking imbeciles who don’t understand the complex nuclear war calculations that US think tanks spent decades wrangling over since the 1950’s. They think they can “finesse” a nuclear war. All the latest US nuclear doctrine is about “finessing” the use of nuclear weapons. Russia, on the other hand, has clearly stated this is a non-starter and nukes must never be used except in retaliation for a nuclear attack (or an existential threat to the Russian state – which is exactly what the Aegis Ashore installations are for.)
So that’s the risk: That the morons running the US government think on the same level as the morons on MoA who dream up bullshit plans. And that the few people in the Pentagon and NATO who understand that this is all bullshit don’t have enough pull to talk the morons down.
Like I don’t have enough pull to talk the MoA morons down.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 26 2023 8:43 utc | 151

Read this (PDF download) in connection with my last post…
Strategic Parity or Why “American” Arms Control Is Not Interested In Russia
https://www.marshallcenter.org/sites/default/files/files/2022-04/SI72_Strategic_Parity_Starchak%2020APR.pdf

In 2007, Vladimir Putin declared that deployment of the U.S. missile defense system in Europe can be compared to deployment of Pershing missiles in Europe in the early 1980s. The threat is absolutely the same, and the U.S. missile defense units deployed in Europe are an integral part of the U.S. strategic nuclear weapons.54 He repeated it in 201655 and in late 2021.56 According to Putin, ballistic missiles are most vulnerable during launch, and that is why it is better to have the interceptor as close as possible. In other words, U.S. missile defense in Europe is an attempt to upset the strategic nuclear balance.57 Therefore, even the potential ability of missile defense to shoot down ballistic missiles can reduce or affect the nuclear parity between Russia and the United States.
For Russia, it is about the fact that missile defense systems can be quite effective at protecting the initiator of a strategic nuclear exchange from a retaliatory strike. The latter strike is carried out by strategic forces that include naval and land-based ballistic missiles survived by the first attack. If just a few missiles are left, say a few dozen, then missile defense systems can at least hypothetically minimize the damage from retaliatory use of strategic nuclear missiles to an “acceptable limit.” In these circumstances, both sides of a potential conflict may conclude that in an escalating armed confrontation the most “rational” strategy, from the purely military point of view, may be to launch a massive nuclear strike first. This, in turn, is a factor that destabilizes the strategic balance and ruins mutual nuclear deterrence….
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shown that Moscow is ready to implement the so-called military-technical responses to the West and to achieve strategic stability as it sees it. In the speech, anticipating the recognition of the independence of the DPR and the LPR, President Putin said that the medium-range missiles being developed by the United States will definitely appear in Ukraine. This means that the missiles can hit objects throughout the European territory of Russia, as well as beyond the Urals, and the time of their approach to Moscow will be reduced to 4-5 minutes.59 Later, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Putin is angry at those people in Ukraine who want to be part of NATO in order to place U.S. nuclear missiles on their territory.”60 This underscores that the threat of losing strategic parity with the United States became one of the key reasons for the invasion of Ukraine. In an effort to demilitarize Ukraine, Russia seeks to prevent the appearance of shock weapons capable of threatening Russia’s strategic potential. The invasion of Ukraine is an attempt by military means to achieve what failed diplomatically.
Moscow sees an opportunity for the formation of a new world order. According to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the current crisis is a fateful moment. This is an epochal moment in modern history. It reflects the battle over what the new world order will look like.61 The purpose of the special military operation, according to Lavrov, was the desire to receive security guarantees that will be based on the principle of indivisible common security for Ukraine, for Russia, for all European countries…
Nevertheless, Russia apparently managed to achieve something with the war with Ukraine. There will be no NATO in Ukraine, and there will be no missiles threatening strategic parity. However, Ukraine is only part of the problem, since Ukraine is like the next candidate for the appearance of missile threats to the Russian Federation, as Deputy Minister Andrei Rudenko said in December. “We have other countries bordering the Russian Federation, where the approach time of the strike systems is 4-5 minutes,”65 Rudenko said. In these circumstances, the Russian president will be forced to look for other ways of escalation to achieve his goals and conclude the necessary agreements. In a couple of years, Vladimir Putin may gain strength and launch an invasion of Finland in order to prevent its entry into NATO. The director of the Foreign Ministry Department, Sergei Belyaev, is already threatening that the membership of Finland and Sweden in NATO will entail military and political consequences.66 Finland, like Ukraine, is located on the border with Russia and was also part of the Russian Empire, the deployment of U.S. strike weapons on its territory will also threaten strategic parity.

The author’s conclusions following this part of the article are basically Western bullshit. But his description of the situation from the Russian point of view as described above is spot on – and Russia is correct in this assessment.
Once again, this is why the Ukraine war is happening, and why, as Martyanov has pointed out, Russia has been enhancing its military capabilities in areas such as air defense and hypersonic missiles both on land and sea: nuclear security for Russia has been reduced by the actions of the US.
So it’s not that nuclear weapons will be given to Ukraine NOW – but that they were guaranteed to be installed in Ukraine at some point in the form of Aegis Ashore installations – and the intended seizure of the Sevastopol naval base in 2014 by Ukraine was to remove the Russian Black Sea Fleet threat, thus leaving Russia at the mercy of NATO. Russia has seen all this very clearly, as referenced by Putin’s statements over several years, as pointed out by Ray McGovern in his speech to the Boston church peace group a month or so ago, and also referenced in this article.
This is what matters: the morons in the US were and are seriously planning to attack Russia with a nuclear first strike after decapitating Russia’s primary retaliatory and command capability – REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THAT WOULD ACTUALLY WORK!

I would add that failing that approach, the neocons would also like a “long war” in which they bleed Russia down to eventual collapse. That plan isn’t going to work, either, despite how many MoA posters think it will. Which is why the F-16 BS is so annoying.
The real threat, again, is that the neocons have no clue that they’re starting WWIII.
When Biden said the following, he wasn’t warning against it. That’s the mistake everyone is making when they say he backtracked on this statement. He was saying that’s exactly what the US is aiming for – he just, as usual, didn’t phrase it very well while in the process of trying to tell the lie that he wouldn’t do exactly that:

“The idea that we’re going to send in offensive equipment and have planes and tanks and trains going in with American pilots and American crews — just understand, don’t kid yourself, no matter what y’all say, that’s called World War III,” Biden told a gathering of House Democrats in Philadelphia.

In reality, that’s what the neocons intend – after they’ve bled Russia dry. Despite the fact that it can’t and won’t work. And again, that’s the threat – that they just don’t get it.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 26 2023 21:13 utc | 70

If they can terrorise Russians within Russia they’ll have no trouble terrorising what’s left of Ukraine. Russia would have to build border walls to keep them out.
Posted by: Derek Henry | May 26 2023 21:05 utc | 69
Yes, border walls and mine fields. Mines are excellent defensive weapons.
A few years before the Syrian war, Turkey pretended to be friendly with Syria and they and the “international community” got Syria to remove all its mines from its border with Turkey. After that, it was made easy for Turkey to support the armed uprising, al Nusra, ISIS and other terrorist groups in Syria.

Posted by: MiniMo | May 26 2023 21:15 utc | 72

Posted by: Merlin2 | May 26 2023 20:58 utc | 61
Posted by: Mike R | May 26 2023 20:59 utc | 62
I think it was @PeterAU1 (who posts here) who did some sterling work correlating the initial Russian advances during the early days of the SMO with the known locations of bio-labs in eastern Ukraine. The conclusion being that the early advances weren’t necessarily about gaining territory or overthrowing the Kiev regime, more about securing, eliminating or otherwise neutralising these laboratories, including evidence-gathering.

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 26 2023 21:18 utc | 74

Yes, the Nato trained neo-nazis need to either flee or die before SMO goals can be achieved. They can’t be integrated into society or there will be permanently high risk of terrorism.
The real issue is that they most likely aren’t sent to the frontal attack – they are always in the rear acting as blocking detachments which makes it more problematic to hit them. Despite this, there have been a lot of bombing of rear areas, which might have killed a good bunch of them (also per BMA).
Posted by: unimperator | May 26 2023 21:11 utc | 72
—————————————————————–
Targeting the rear areas has been going on for a while. I think that the Russkies are on it. It also requires good intelligence to kill them in their lair.
Denazification when this is done will have to be better than what the Allies did in Germany.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 26 2023 21:40 utc | 76

Lurker # 17:38 utc | 13

No. If the Russians have proven anything is that THEY are in charge of the schedule. “Z” is for Zelenskyy, the greatest Russian asset money can buy.

Correction: can I suggest – “Z” is for Zelenskyy, the greatest Russian asset Western money can buy.
Perhaps this is karma for all those Russian $ deposits the USA stole.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 26 2023 22:00 utc | 78

@ Posted by: Jacq | May 26 2023 18:59 utc | 27
Klaatu
Barada
Nikto

Posted by: BroncoBilly | May 26 2023 22:04 utc | 80

Posted by: srbin | May 26 2023 20:22 utc | 55
OK, I’ve listened to Dima and I believe he is panicking unnecessarily. I believe he has gone outside his ‘comfort zone’ because he has forgotten that the Black Sea has more than just Russia and Ukraine surrounding it. So, the questions I asked in my earlier post weren’t aimed directly at you, they were aimed at getting you to think a bit more about Dima’s analysis, and where it might be flawed.
If Ukrainian terrorists start launching random sea drones across the Black Sea, what is going to happen to the domestic shipping of those nations not directly involved in the SMO? What will happen to shipping traffic along the southern stretches of the Danube river, that want to traverse the Black Sea?

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 26 2023 22:07 utc | 82

Posted by: srbin | May 26 2023 19:57 utc | 47
Dima is a fkn over-reactionary drama queen and you are a troll. He’s also a cyberpunk religious Christian nutter. Checkout his personal channel. https://youtube.com/@neuralholybible
Too crazy for words.

Posted by: The Dolphin | May 26 2023 22:09 utc | 84

Jacq #18:59 utc | 27

This is a forum for the coping military civilian intelligence complex inside the failing west. Treat with caution.

:))
From what I see then the score is
Barflies 2
Civilian intelligence complex 0
Next match commences June 12

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 26 2023 22:11 utc | 86

Here is one source incl. Video:
https://southfront.org/ukraine-today-captain-killed-battalion-commander-for-ordering-him-to-move-to-front-video-18/
Posted by: 600w | May 26 2023 19:08 utc | 31
That video (like the still photos which came from it) DOES NOT show anyone “being shot”. It shows a man in military camos — ***no visible emblems or rank*** — lying on the ground, in a pool if something red. It has a souvd track which could EASILY have been dubbed over the footage. No date stamp, no location, no backgroubd, no witnesses/onlookers shown. Could easily be fake.

Posted by: The Dolphin | May 26 2023 22:20 utc | 88

Dan Farrand #22:02 utc | 84

As long as Russia is waiting on the AFU offensive, in a strange way, the AFU holds the initiative. Can they talk offensive all summer and freeze the Russians in place all summer and consume the entire fighting season without a fight ?

Russia is waiting on Ukraine offensive???
Every 24 hours there is constant shelling, incremental advances, Every night there is serious degradation of Ukraine major assets like ammo dumps, air defence systems, transport corridors or terminals, energy infrastructure.
Ukraine is almost entirely dependent on foreign capital infusions, is incapable of orderly succession planning in its military leadership, depleted by intense evacuations and likely brain drain beyond measure.
Waiting my arse. Russia is watching the collapse and conserving soldiers lives whilst focussing the intense destruction of the Ukrainian army and mercenary soldiers of fortune along the contact zone.
The only initiative Ukraine is holding are pathetic minor assaults, sea drones that are capable of bumping harmlessly into Russian vessels, occasional success with bio weapon attack drones that run out of fuel. They cant even scorch a cotton flag on the Kremlin roof.
Oh, and they seem to have struck a deal to trade in body organs from living wounded. Puts a whole new slant on holding the initiative after surgery I guess.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 26 2023 22:28 utc | 90

Suresh # 21:47 utc | 80
Thank you.
48 volt
18 Ah
28 spokes F&R
speedo reading 18km/hr
#~#

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 26 2023 22:35 utc | 92

BroncoBilly | May 26 2023 22:23 utc | 94

“The Watch”….The Chinese watch….Thank You…..Mother.”

Purple mother, green elephant.

(I think we should stop or ask for a new thread !)

Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | May 26 2023 22:47 utc | 94

Posted by: Milites | May 26 2023 18:04 utc | 19
“With no KO offensive, it’s a failing rope-a-dope play with little chance of escape. Sure, she can land some body shots, even open a sutured cut, but the outcome is inevitable and I think far closer than people might suspect.”
RESPONSE: Ukraine and its Western backers are, no doubt, going to lose this conflict. “The outcome is inevitable”. With far superior fire power, the Russians grind away the Army Forces of Ukraine (AFU) a little more each day.
With the rapid increase in Western escalation, Russia is planning to take and secure the Donbas as soon as possible. Agree that “I think far closer than people might suspect”.

Posted by: young | May 26 2023 23:09 utc | 96

from Newsweek
Video Shows Challenger 2 Tanks Making Light Work of Russia’s ‘Dragon Teeth’
. . .the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense tweeted on Thursday: “Challenger 2: If there is such a thing as ‘dragon teeth,’ there must be a ‘dragon dentist.'”. . .here
comment: Every obstacle must be covered by fire. . .MilSci 101

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 26 2023 23:18 utc | 98

Here is one source incl. Video:
https://southfront.org/ukraine-today-captain-killed-battalion-commander-for-ordering-him-to-move-to-front-video-18/
Posted by: 600w | May 26 2023 19:08 utc | 31
That video (like the still photos which came from it) DOES NOT show anyone “being shot”. It shows a man in military camos — ***no visible emblems or rank*** — lying on the ground, in a pool if something red. It has a souvd track which could EASILY have been dubbed over the footage. No date stamp, no location, no backgroubd, no witnesses/onlookers shown. Could easily be fake.
Posted by: The Dolphin | May 26 2023 22:20 utc | 93
————————————————————–
What do you want Dolphin, a live execution? I posted this at #64 and I have no way to verify it, but I did point out (as a Vietnam era Vet) that a number of American officers were fragged for a whole lot less. You can’t go around gang pressing civilians who aren’t interested in your fucking war. If they did, they would have enlisted without being gang pressed.
The fact that Russian speaking Ukrainians are being forced to fight on the front lines with little training or lack of military support and back up is nothing less than genocide.
Watching good men die in a meat grinder while the Nazis fall back a shoot their own troops who flee from suicide missions’ day after day will result in this kind of behavior. Take it or leave it no one gives a fuck.

Posted by: Ed | May 26 2023 23:27 utc | 100