Ukraine Open Thread 2023-123

May 22, 2023

I find this funny:

Michał Krupa @MGKrupa – 22:12 UTC · May 21, 2023

NATO: We will send F-16's to Ukraine!
Russia: Hold my beer

> In late October a Ukrainian Sukhoi-27 Flanker, Soviet-era fighter, was shot down by a long-range air-to-air missile (LRAAM) – the R-37M. This is not the first Ukrainian aircraft to be shot down since Russia’s invasion commenced in February, but it is nevertheless a significant feat for the Russian Air Force because the R-37M took down the Ukrainian Sukhoi-27 from a range of 217km (about 140 miles). This would make the kill the longest on record. The R-37M is a hypersonic long-range air-to-air missile (LRAAM) reportedly capable of reaching Mach 6 and striking targets up to 400km (250 miles) away.

The R-37M has become virtually unmatched, with few potential rivals.Furthermore, it is reported that the R-37M was fired from Russia’s fifth-generation fighter the Sukhoi-57 Felon rather than the Mikoyan MiG-31 Foxhound, Russia’s primary interceptor. The possibility of a fifth-generation Felon executing a target from such a long range is not at all impossible; the Sukhoi-57 has a sophisticated actively electronic scanned arrays (AESA) radar system comprising of the solid state AN/APG-77 – with a range of at least 200km (125 miles); and the N036 Byelka radar which boasts a maximum range just under 400km (250 miles). <

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b on May 22, 2023 at 14:31 UTC | Permalink

Comments

While I certainly find this interesting I fail to find the comedic value in it. Hmmm … must be German humour.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 22 2023 14:39 utc | 1

In the waterfall of the Western bullshit and under old fashioned Russian military secrecy we never got to read whether the Russians have extended their fully integrated air defence systems over Eastern Ukraine. This is the system which already protected Moscow and other military and civilian areas. Su-57 with R-37M is one (new) component of such integrated air defence system. That’s what F16 mercenaries may be facing.

Posted by: Kiza | May 22 2023 14:53 utc | 2

It’s funny how “wunder waffen” culture is infectious. Weapons only reach their potential when used by committed warriors. We’re still waiting on russian will to match their potential and to be fair nato will as well. The Ukrainians seem all in though.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 22 2023 14:59 utc | 3

In his usual forthright style Andrei Martyanov blasts away at the prospect of the F-16 being deployed in Ukraine; the full piece is here: https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/05/not-first-time.html
A couple of paragraphs as a taster:

here is the issue which is going to irritate many rah-rah boys who learned about modern air combat from the Top Gun: Maverick school of the advanced military studies and who still cannot wrap their brains around this simple fact: NO modern US pilot, even the Senator Kelly, ever flew any mission under the conditions of high density Air Defense, EW and being outgunned and outranged by the enemy’s Air Force. None, zero, zilch, nada and, consequently, lacking practical (emphasis–PRACTICAL) tactical and operational experience and all necessary tactical and operational data, they are reduced to theoretical study of experiences of those very few Ukie and possibly NATO pilots who survived more than one mission against Russians.
Moreover, Russian Air Force Beyond Visual Range (BVR) against capable MiG-29s, Su-27 and Su-24 of Ukie AF is staggering–a wet dream for very many in NATO Air Forces. Moreover, USAF NEVER operated against the best air defense in the world. Davis forgets that air domain in SMO is stuffed with not just S-300 or S-400s, nope, Tor-M2s, S1 Pantsirs, let alone Buk-M2 and M3, not to mention S-350 Vityaz are all there and it is them who create the most hostile air environment in history, as Ukie AF learned the hard way.

So, just in case anyone doesn’t get it, the F-16 will be trying to operate in an environment bristling with layered, integrated air defences, something it has never faced before.

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 22 2023 15:06 utc | 4

⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation
(22 May 2023)
💥 Last night, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched a group strike by high-precision long-range air-based weapons against facilities of the Dnepr airfield.
◽️ The purpose of the strike has been achieved. All the assigned targets have been destroyed.
◽️ As a result of the strike, hangars with weapons and ammunition, aviation equipment, as well as a technical missile preparation position were hit.
◽️ In Kupyansk direction, aviation, artillery, and troops of the Zapad Group of Forces have engaged the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) close to Dvurechnaya, Masyutovka, Sinkovka, Kotlyarovka, and Krakhmalnoye (Kharkov region).
◽️ In addition, actions of three sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were thwarted near Timkovka, Ivanovka, and Kislovka (Kharkov region).
◽️ Up to 50 Ukrainian servicemen, two motor vehicles, and one D-30 howitzer have been neutralised during the day.
◽️ An ammunition depot of the 103rd Territorial Defence Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been eliminated close to Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People’s Republic).
◽ In Krasny Liman direction, Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems of the Tsentr Group of Forces engaged the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Nevskoye, Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic), and Grigorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
◽️ Up to 55 Ukrainian troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, one Msta-B and D-30 howitzer were destroyed.
💥 In Donetsk direction, the Yug Group of Forces, aviation, and artillery have eliminated up to 270 Ukrainian troops, four armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, and one D-20 and two D-30 howitzers.
💥 In South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, aviation and artillery of the Vostok Group of Forces inflicted a fire damage on AFU units close Shevchenko (Donetsk People’s Republic), and Marfopol, Malaya Tokmachka, and Nesteryanka (Zaporozhye region).
◽️ One sabotage and reconnaissance group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been disabled close to Novodonetskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
◽️ More 150 Ukrainian servicemen, two pick-up trucks, and two D-30 howitzers have been neutralised during the day.
◽️ Moreover, an ammunition depot of the 65th Mechanised Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was destroyed close to Orekhov (Zaporozhye region).
💥 In Kherson direction, the fire damage has neutralised over 20 Ukrainian servicemen, four motor vehicles, one Giatsint-B gun, and a Msta-B howitzer during the day.
◽️ In addition, an ammunition depot of the 123rd Territorial Defence Brigade was destroyed near Stanislav (Kherson region).
💥 Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, and artillery of the Russian Group of Forces have engaged 98 AFU artillery units, manpower, and hardware in 107 areas during the day.
💥 Air defence facilities have shot down one Mi-8 helicopter of Ukrainian Air Force near Lozovoye in (Donetsk People’s Republic).
◽️ In addition, five HIMARS multiple rocket launchers have been intercepted.
◽️ In addition, 17 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been destroyed in the areas of Kremenets, Peski, Aleksandrovka, Veseloye (Donetsk People’s Republic), Sladkaya Balka, Marfopol (Zaporozhye region), and Sergeyevka and Lyubimovka (Kherson region).
📊 In total, 428 airplanes and 235 helicopters, 4,262 unmanned aerial vehicles, 424 anti-aircraft missile systems, 9,257 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,100 combat vehicles equipped with multiple launch rocket systems, 4,881 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 10,379 pieces of special military hardware have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Posted by: rumod report | May 22 2023 15:10 utc | 5

This is how the situation in the Belgorod region looks like now. Rybar has it covered.
https://twitter.com/rybar_en
Ukraine are saying that Ukraine has absolutely nothing to do with what’s happening in Belgorod. The Nazi’s will come out and say the “Russian Volunteer Corps” and the “Legion of Freedom of Russia” are the ones fighting in Belgorod and that it is Russians fighting Russians. Even though both the “Russian Volunteer Corps” and the “Legion of Freedom of Russia” are run by the British SAS.
Nothing more than an a typical British propaganda event. To try and in still fear in Russia and create panic. To deflect attention away from the loss of the “Bakhmut Fortress”.
Try and create a picture that Russians are fighting Russians in Belgorod.

Posted by: Derek Henry | May 22 2023 15:18 utc | 6

The Su-57 cannot be equipped with the AN/APG-77 radar. That radar equips the F-22.

Posted by: Surly | May 22 2023 15:19 utc | 7

Spriter also has the situation in the Belgorod region covered.
https://twitter.com/Spriter99880

Posted by: Derek Henry | May 22 2023 15:21 utc | 8

Sad we play such deadly games, Putin seems to blossom as Death’s Angel Carnival Ring Master. With 4,500 F/16-s sold, soon trade/inflation squeezed bankrupt nations will likely provide the necessary conveyors of mercenary pilots and equipment from around the globe (no doubt tied to IMF loan deals?) to fly these old ducks in the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal shooting gallery….war of attrition to the bitter end?

Posted by: Mercury | May 22 2023 15:31 utc | 9

The Americans are still living in ‘Mission Accomplished Land’ if they think that Tom Cruise and his Top Gun fantasy will make any difference this century.

Posted by: Merkin Scot | May 22 2023 15:38 utc | 10

c 50 F16s plus the remnants of the Ukrainian AF 4 months hence. Versus c 1,500 Russian combat aircraft supported by the worlds best integrated AD system. And the ability to target airbases etc at long range. Not odds that favour Kiev. In fact so bad, you have to wonder WTF is going on here?

Posted by: marcjf | May 22 2023 15:44 utc | 11

@Posted by: Derek Henry | May 22 2023 15:21 utc | 8
The “situation.” Stupid British PR stunt. This is all the Ukraine has anymore. Dumb stunts and terrorism.

Posted by: FVK | May 22 2023 15:50 utc | 12

Newsweek reports:
“Ukraine has pushed back against Russian forces in the city of Bakhmut, retaking a number of buildings, a Ukrainian armed forces spokesman said on Monday.”

Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | May 22 2023 15:57 utc | 13

Who are they going to get to fly the F16s?
Surely anybody with the skills would be able to get a nice safe job with an airline, rather than taking a one-way trip into the worlds best AD system.

Posted by: JulianJ | May 22 2023 16:04 utc | 14

Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President is preparing a headquarters at which they will decide on a further counteroffensive near Bakhmut, after the fall of the city, Syrsky’s plan is not relevant.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17914

Syrsky gained a reputation as a butcher in the army due to losses near Bakhmut. After the loss of the city’s fortified areas, he continues to throw people into assaults on the flanks, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are suffering huge losses. There is growing discontent among the middle command at the level of major-colonel.
The reputation of the commander of the ground forces was dealt a severe blow, everyone understands his motivation – to save his career, and not to preserve the combat effectiveness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17915

Posted by: Down South | May 22 2023 16:08 utc | 15

Major Major @ 14
Good man you’v come to the right place.
Just browse through the Brilliant MOA archive its all there.
A trifle late I fear.
We’re all about to be incinerated by a needless nuclear conflagration.

Posted by: Mark2 | May 22 2023 16:09 utc | 16

Posted by: Down South | May 22 2023 16:08 utc | 16

Colleagues, we confirm your information that a bet is being prepared for the Bakhmut meat grinder, where Syrsky’s plan suffered a situational collapse.
An offensive in the near future will be impossible due to the weather, but Zelensky has not abandoned plans to attack Bakhmut. Most likely, new reinforcements will have to be sent in order to have at least some informational success in this direction, which can be “sold” to the masses as a positive.
The defeat in Bakhmut caused moral damage, which they were able to reverse situationally with the help of the entry of the DRG GUR into the Belgorod region. But this will not fix the situation for a long time.
Most likely, there will be more such targeted info attacks now in order to gain time.

https://t.me/legitimniy/15404

Posted by: Down South | May 22 2023 16:10 utc | 17

Is there a good longform breakdown of the conflict from the start up to this point?

Posted by: MajorMajor | May 22 2023 16:00 utc | 15
Well that will depend on when you define the start of conflict. Many of us here would certainly point to the events leading up to, and after, the Maidan coup in 2014. Others may go back as far as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech to the Munich Security Conference in 2007.
So how far back do you want to go? Because ‘longform’ could get very long…

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 22 2023 16:14 utc | 18

Belgorod? The Mujahideen-E-Khalq equivalent on the Ostfront. Remember them? Ineffectual, but adept at publicity. It matters not whether Ukrainians were among the raiders, the ‘Russians’ were equipped by Ukraine. Which makes them Ukrainian farces … uh… forces.

Posted by: DilNir | May 22 2023 16:14 utc | 19

Is there a good longform breakdown of the conflict from the start up to this point? I have kind of been following along but not really closely. I’m part of a discord that’s very convinced that UA is going to really stick it to RU and so it’s good I think to have a different view.
Posted by: MajorMajor | May 22 2023 16:00 utc | 15
Short form: the story of the war so far is the masterful way the Russians have shaped the battlespace so they get the war they want (attrition/artillery conveniently close to home with logistic and air superiority) instead of the war the West wanted (trying to fend off a large combined-arms attack/invasion of the outgunned Donbass Republics).

Posted by: Bemildred | May 22 2023 16:17 utc | 20

Very pointed statement by Lt. Colonel Tulsi Gabbard (U.S. Army Reserve) might get her in hot water, but only because it’s the naked truth.

Tulsi Gabbard: We are on the brink of WW3
May 22, 2023
The warmongers are trying to drag us into WW3, which can only end in one way: nuclear annihilation and the suffering and death of all our loved ones. Zelensky, Biden, NATO, congressional and media neocons are insane. And we are insane if we passively allow them to lead us into this holocaust like sheep to the slaughter. We find hope in the fact that the vast majority of Americans are sane, but sanity is not enough. We also need courage. The courage to stand up to the powerful warmongers, and in unison declare: “No! we will not allow you to destroy our families, communities, environment, country, and world!”

https://youtu.be/_LQE81clkqM

Posted by: Babel-17 | May 22 2023 16:20 utc | 21

First of two SitRep collections today
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/battlefield-update-2023-05-22-1

Posted by: Will | May 22 2023 16:20 utc | 22

Posted by: la bouteille | May 22 2023 16:21 utc | 23

Nowhere mentioning of Ukraine commander-in-chief Zaluzhnyi during this critical time is rather strange.
Guess the ordinary Ukrainians and soliders would wonder his whereabouts.

Posted by: lulu | May 22 2023 16:21 utc | 24

It seems that General Zaluzhny was really killed – the Kiev regime has not been able to find the missing commander. Missing for over two weeks. Missed NATO meeting.

Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | May 22 2023 16:26 utc | 25

@MajirMajor, nice summary by the regular barfly, Sushi:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/05/ukraine-open-thread-2023-122.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02b75181252a200b#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02b75181252a200b

Posted by: Ricardo Ramirez | May 22 2023 16:33 utc | 26

Posted by: Derek Henry | May 22 2023 15:18 utc | 6
If you consider the fact that all the “moderate rebel” alphabet soup groups in Syria (Hajat tahrir al-Sham, al-Nusra, al-Qaeda, ISIS, Syrian Democratic Force or whatever) were also all invented by the MI6 and/or CIA, it’s no surprise that Russian Freedom or Legion of Freedom are also invented by them.
Most likely they consist of Poles, Balt mercenaries and Ukrainian troops and a few Russian nazis.

Posted by: unimperator | May 22 2023 16:37 utc | 27

@ majormajor 15
The best short summary is the Russian MOD “clobber list” which you will see just above, as @ rumod report 5.
Those “clobber list” numbers began to be made public early in the SMO and they just get higher each passing day.
But you don’t have to believe the Russians. Just ask yourself why the UAF needs tanks and all the other stuff from the West, if they are so victorious against the Russians. The West admits to thousands of Warsaw Pact tanks, artillery,and ammo being delivered from enormous Cold-War warehouses, enough to fight WW3. But Kiev says that huge supply is all gone now, and therefore they need the NATO stuff. tHESE Ukie “leaders” who say that unless they get all their wish list of NATO weapons, they can’t start a big new offensive. So they are out of supplies.
From an even great distance, ask youself where are all the Ukrainians ? In 1990, there were 45 million. Well, Ukraine was a “basket case” even in the 1990’s so people started leaving by the millions. Approximately half of all Ukrainians left, so at most there are only 22 million left. But dong the math on Zelensky’s recent statement, he thinks there may only be 14 million Ukies left in Ukraine. 22 million or 14 million, it doesn’t matter because that’s tiny compared to 143 million Russians.
You have to take a hard look at what should be obvious as long as war porn junkies don’t block the view. This an SMO, not a war. Russia is careful to not destroy any more of Ukraine’s infrastructure than they have to. Sometimes Russia destroys electric grid transformers which can be replaced in a few days or a week, but it never attacks the big 330kV and 750kV transformers which are hard to impossible to replace – only made in Russia. The electricity generation plants have never been attacked. Why not ??? So the SMO is a slow process by nature, and it’s not often spectacular.
You need to inform yourself and not take anyone else’s word for it.

Posted by: JessDTruth | May 22 2023 16:38 utc | 28

Metro edition Rome.
“Moscow has caused a radioactive cloud to move towards Poland”: Italians paint the most apocalyptic picture of a radioactive cloud “coming from Khmelnitsky towards Europe”
https://t.me/ukraine_watch/2994
Posted by: la bouteille | May 22 2023 16:21 utc | 24
I’ve been thinking that the entire Western elite could just get a life sentence in one shared prison, and a few heaps of the uranium ammo could be placed there for them to play with. Oh and the unused pfizer doses added to the drinking water of course.

Posted by: Mike | May 22 2023 16:46 utc | 29

Posted by: unimperator | May 22 2023 16:37 utc | 28
” If you consider the fact that all the “moderate rebel” alphabet soup groups in Syria (Hajat tahrir al-Sham, al-Nusra, al-Qaeda, ISIS, Syrian Democratic Force or whatever) were also all invented by the MI6 and/or CIA, it’s no surprise that Russian Freedom or Legion of Freedom are also invented by them. ”
Of course it is their Western war mongers signature theme tune. The Belgorod region should have been better prepared and should have seen them coming.
The situation in the Belgorod region – what is known by 18.00 Moscow Time:
https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1660672831846227971.
[Rybar] Post dated May 11, 2023:
>Analyzing the radio intercept data and the open files of the enemy, we can say with confidence that among the junior command staff the topic of creating a “buffer zone” 15-20 km in the Russian border area has been discussed for a long time.
[Rybar] Post dated May 13, 2023:
>There are up to 20,000 regular military personnel of the AFU and 10,000 members of the territorial defense in the Kharkiv region. They are all pumped up and prepared for the creation of a buffer zone between Kharkov and Belgorod, 15-20 km away.
Now angry Russian channels are posting information that in Belgorod Region they spent up to 10 billion rubles on fortifications, and yet, the enemy broke through the border along a regular road. This story has already been picked up by Ukrainian resources, stoking discontent.
Another problem the Russians wouldn’t needed to have faced if they were on point along the border. All the signs of an offensive in that region was clearly obvious.

Posted by: Derek Henry | May 22 2023 16:48 utc | 30

Why Putin Will Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine Thoughts?

Posted by: GSG9 | May 22 2023 16:50 utc | 31

Posted by: Derek Henry | May 22 2023 16:48 utc | 31
While not knowing more about these created defenses – there can be always defensive structures but they are useless if no one is using them. Not implying anything bc don’t know really what’s going just a note.

Posted by: unimperator | May 22 2023 16:52 utc | 32

@lulu | May 22 2023 16:21 utc | 25

Nowhere mentioning of Ukraine commander-in-chief Zaluzhnyi during this critical time is rather strange.

Not strange at all, just another expression of denial.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 22 2023 16:52 utc | 33

Posted by: GSG9 | May 22 2023 16:50 utc | 32

Why Putin Will Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine Thoughts?

Addressed countless times on this site going back more than six months. Seek and ye shall find …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 22 2023 16:55 utc | 34

james | May 21 2023 15:51 utc | 45 suggested I review Simplicius’ SITREP 5/20/23: Bakhmut Falls, Artemovsk Rises. What’s Next?
FUTURE OF THE SMO INSTALLMENT 2 – ALTERNATE DECISION PATHS
“If we get to September and Ukraine has not made significant gains, then the international pressure on [the West] to bring them to negotiations will be enormous,”
SOURCE:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-52023-bakhmut-falls-artemovsk
How does such a deadline impact RF decision making?
Option 1
RF opts to go slow and “run out the clock” and then seeks to achieve its stated objectives via a post September negotiation process.
In effect such a go slow process transfers the military initiative to 404 and delivers an interim breathing space which permits further weapons transfers, further media disinformation, further time for the West to create problems elsewhere.
Given RF past experience of Western contempt for negotiation, Western failure to recognize repeatedly stated RF security concerns, Western bad faith conduct in regard to the Minsk Accords and the earlier promise of no NATO expansion, I cannot envisage RF deciding to wait on what likely will turn out to be an empty set of promises while at the same time facing Western fuelled attacks on Russian citizens and territory. The Russian people would ask “What are you waiting for?” “Why do you trust them?” “Why do you not implement Russian law demanding the ejection of the foreign armies from Russian soil?”
An analogy is found in the WWII German 6th Army battering Stalingrad along with the promise if we do not defeat you in five months we will permit you to negotiate on our terms.
In the fall of 1942 four battles, known as the Kotluban Offensives, decided the fate of 6th Army before Paulus’ troops ever set foot in Stalingrad.
The Russians know their own military history. They recognize themselves to be dealing with a venomous and totally unprincipled opponent, one every bit the equal of that led by the Austrian house painter. Do you honestly believe that Putin, that alleged 3d chess-master, would willingly turn military initiative over to the enemy? Permit the irrational conduct of NATOstan to continue? Allow the enemy to increase military production, permit more propaganda to further blacken the international image of Russia and confuse the Western electorates over military reality, widen the conflict, give opportunity for further terrorist attacks such as NS2? Something unexpected in South Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands? A humiliating CVN “Freedom of Navigation” transit of the Northern Sea Route?
More to the point, a delay until September effectively forecloses the opportunity for military action until Winter 2024. Russia must hope General Winter is on their side; a second winter with limited ground freeze would delay an offensive ground campaign until Summer 2024. This next opportunity for military action comes after the next RF presidential election.
How much mischief will NATOstan get up to in a years time? How many more citizens of Russia will die in terrorist attacks? What is the crew of the Andromeda up to now? When does Storm Shadow II enter the enemy inventory? What is the Soros fifth column planning for democratic upheaval in Russia?
Russia must choose between these imponderables or acting to retain the initiative and bringing the conflict to a successful resolution. Operation Uranus 2023 (see Sushi | May 21 2023 15:22 utc | 34) offers such an opportunity for a successful conclusion to the conflict on Russian terms.
Option 2
I don’t see a viable second option. Why continue to batter headlong against the prepared defensive positions of the Ukraine when you can advance across open steppe and cut off the total oxygen supply of the UAF forces arrayed along the line of contact?
Gerasimov is no fool. Neither is Putin.

Posted by: Sushi | May 22 2023 16:55 utc | 35

here is the issue which is going to irritate many rah-rah boys who learned about modern air combat from the Top Gun: Maverick school of the advanced military studies and who still cannot wrap their brains around this simple fact: NO modern US pilot, even the Senator Kelly, ever flew any mission under the conditions of high density Air Defense, EW and being outgunned and outranged by the enemy’s Air Force. None, zero, zilch, nada and, consequently, lacking practical (emphasis–PRACTICAL) tactical and operational experience and all necessary tactical and operational data, they are reduced to theoretical study of experiences of those very few Ukie and possibly NATO pilots who survived more than one mission against Russians.
Moreover, Russian Air Force Beyond Visual Range (BVR) against capable MiG-29s, Su-27 and Su-24 of Ukie AF is staggering–a wet dream for very many in NATO Air Forces. Moreover, USAF NEVER operated against the best air defense in the world. Davis forgets that air domain in SMO is stuffed with not just S-300 or S-400s, nope, Tor-M2s, S1 Pantsirs, let alone Buk-M2 and M3, not to mention S-350 Vityaz are all there and it is them who create the most hostile air environment in history, as Ukie AF learned the hard way.
So, just in case anyone doesn’t get it, the F-16 will be trying to operate in an environment bristling with layered, integrated air defences, something it has never faced before.
Posted by: West of England Andy | May 22 2023 15:06 utc | 4
.
.
It is also important, according to Davis, that the F-16 is not a stealth aircraft and could therefore become an easy target for Russian defenses.
And WITHOUT E-3 Sentry radar planes for support, you’re outclassed even by Mik 29…
And nobody in EU or USA talked about this support!
.
All these reports in the West are fools with headlines for laypeople…

Posted by: mo3.1 | May 22 2023 16:56 utc | 36

Question:
How much training does an F16 pilot need in order to be able to outrun an S-300 missile ?
… How about 2 S-300 missiles?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 22 2023 16:56 utc | 37

A couple of paragraphs as a taster:
here is the issue which is going to irritate many rah-rah boys who learned about modern air combat from the Top Gun: Maverick school of the advanced military studies and who still cannot wrap their brains around this simple fact: NO modern US pilot, even the Senator Kelly, ever flew any mission under the conditions of high density Air Defense, EW and being outgunned and outranged by the enemy’s Air Force. None, zero, zilch, nada and, consequently, lacking practical (emphasis–PRACTICAL) tactical and operational experience and all necessary tactical and operational data, they are reduced to theoretical study of experiences of those very few Ukie and possibly NATO pilots who survived more than one mission against Russians.
Moreover, Russian Air Force Beyond Visual Range (BVR) against capable MiG-29s, Su-27 and Su-24 of Ukie AF is staggering–a wet dream for very many in NATO Air Forces. Moreover, USAF NEVER operated against the best air defense in the world. Davis forgets that air domain in SMO is stuffed with not just S-300 or S-400s, nope, Tor-M2s, S1 Pantsirs, let alone Buk-M2 and M3, not to mention S-350 Vityaz are all there and it is them who create the most hostile air environment in history, as Ukie AF learned the hard way.
So, just in case anyone doesn’t get it, the F-16 will be trying to operate in an environment bristling with layered, integrated air defences, something it has never faced before.
.
.
INFO
.
It is also important, according to Davis, that the F-16 is not a stealth aircraft and could therefore become an easy target for Russian defenses.
And WITHOUT E-3 Sentry radar planes for support, you’re outclassed even by Mik 29…
And nobody in EU or USA talked about this support!
.
All these reports in the West are fools with headlines for laypeople…

Posted by: mo3 | May 22 2023 16:58 utc | 38

james | May 21 2023 15:51 utc | 45 suggested I review Simplicius’ SITREP 5/20/23: Bakhmut Falls, Artemovsk Rises. What’s Next?
FUTURE OF THE SMO INSTALLMENT 2 – ALTERNATE DECISION PATHS
“If we get to September and Ukraine has not made significant gains, then the international pressure on [the West] to bring them to negotiations will be enormous,”
SOURCE:
URL removed as it appears to impede posting
How does such a deadline impact RF decision making?
Option 1
RF opts to go slow and “run out the clock” and then seeks to achieve its stated objectives via a post September negotiation process.
In effect such a go slow process transfers the military initiative to 404 and delivers an interim breathing space which permits further weapons transfers, further media disinformation, further time for the West to create problems elsewhere.
Given RF past experience of Western contempt for negotiation, Western failure to recognize repeatedly stated RF security concerns, Western bad faith conduct in regard to the Minsk Accords and the earlier promise of no NATO expansion, I cannot envisage RF deciding to wait on what likely will turn out to be an empty set of promises while at the same time facing Western fuelled attacks on Russian citizens and territory. The Russian people would ask “What are you waiting for?” “Why do you trust them?” “Why do you not implement Russian law demanding the ejection of the foreign armies from Russian soil?”
An analogy is found in the WWII German 6th Army battering Stalingrad along with the promise that if we do not defeat you in five months we will permit you to negotiate on our terms.
In the fall of 1942 four battles, known as the Kotluban Offensives, decided the fate of 6th Army before Paulus’ troops ever set foot in Stalingrad.
The Russians know their own military history. They recognize themselves to be dealing with a venomous and totally unprincipled opponent, one every bit the equal of that led by the Austrian house painter. Do you honestly believe that Putin, that alleged 3d chess-master, would willingly turn military initiative over to the enemy? Permit the irrational conduct of NATOstan to continue? Allow the enemy to increase military production, permit more propaganda to further blacken the international image of Russia and confuse the Western electorates over military reality, widen the conflict, give opportunity for further terrorist attacks such as NS2? Something unexpected in South Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands? A humiliating CVN “Freedom of Navigation” transit of the Northern Sea Route?
More to the point, a delay until September effectively forecloses the opportunity for military action until Winter 2024. Russia must hope General Winter is on their side; a second winter with limited ground freeze would delay an offensive ground campaign until Summer 2024. This next opportunity for military action comes after the next RF presidential election.
How much mischief will NATOstan get up to in a years time? How many more citizens of Russia will die in terrorist attacks? What is the crew of the Andromeda up to now? When does Storm Shadow II enter the enemy inventory? What is the Soros fifth column planning for democratic upheaval in Russia?
Russia must choose between these imponderables or acting to retain the initiative and bringing the conflict to a successful resolution. Operation Uranus 2023 (see Sushi | May 21 2023 15:22 utc | 34) offers such an opportunity for a successful conclusion to the conflict on Russian terms.
Option 2
I don’t see a viable second option. Why continue to batter headlong against the prepared defensive positions of the Ukraine when you can advance across open steppe and cut off the total oxygen supply of the UAF forces arrayed along the line of contact?
Gerasimov is no fool. Neither is Putin.

Posted by: Sushi | May 22 2023 16:58 utc | 39

Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | May 22 2023 16:26 utc | 26

It seems that General Zaluzhny was really killed

That’s just until the Ukrainian turnip farmer they scooped up the other day has been coached to move and speak exactly like the General.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 22 2023 16:59 utc | 40

Newb here, but not to posting in forums or my firm grip on reality and this war.
I’ve been loving reading these open threads, and just wanted to say thanks to all the contributors.

Posted by: CarlusMagnus | May 22 2023 17:00 utc | 41

The hands that pull the strings behind the scenes, must have a dilemma on whether to take out Biden or Zelenski.
Are all the War Mongers in DC and London, childless, alone, with a personal death wish? If so, then why not kill themselves with the symbolism of a burning Monk, or gather together in a JonesTown Seppuku?
Is the grift from the Ukraine laundry worth incinerating every major European and American City? Are the egotists at the top surrounded solely by yes men. Or can some reasoned person rethink Anwar Sadat.

Posted by: kupkee | May 22 2023 17:03 utc | 42

OK, there seems to be an advance guard attempting to derail things by obsessing about a publicity stunt in Belgorod, which could well be the sum total of the much-vaunted ‘spring counter-offensive’.
This advance guard obviously doesn’t read the daily ‘clobber reports’, including the one here:
Posted by: rumod report | May 22 2023 15:10 utc | 5
Yesterday’s report show’s more attrition of ammo dumps, howitzers and personnel.
There is no point in posting minute-by-minute coverage of some minor adventurism by (possibly British-backed) freelancers that will make damn all difference to the progress or outcome of the SMO.

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 22 2023 17:05 utc | 43

@Posted by: Bemildred | May 22 2023 16:17 utc | 21
This is why I have stopped complaining about Russia not going hard enough. It is easy to get frustrated, but the reality is that the west wants Russia to overextend itself, so then the west could more effectively fracture Russia from within. So it has been smart of Russia to avoid this. Time is on Russia’s side in this war. Russia’s economy of force has been very good, and today the combat effectiveness of the Russian forces is greater than it was a year ago. In contrast, the combat effectiveness of the Ukraine forces has been severely diminished (and their economy of force has been abysmal, just throwing lives to the meat grinder with nothing to show for it).

Posted by: FVK | May 22 2023 17:07 utc | 44

Posted by: Derek Henry | May 22 2023 16:48 utc | 31

Now angry Russian channels are posting information that in Belgorod Region they spent up to 10 billion rubles on fortifications, and yet, the enemy broke through

Those fortifications have been successful.
They’ve ensured the only thing that gets through are suicide missions.
No actual military offensives, just terrorist attacks.

Another problem the Russians wouldn’t needed to have faced if they were on point along the border. All the signs of an offensive in that region was clearly obvious

Mobilizing entire sections of the military in fear of potential terrorist attacks will result in paralyzing the military and diverting resources from where they’re most needed.
There is no way to stop a terrorist attack if the terrorist is committed enough.
The only thing you can do is mitigate the impact, or address the root causes.
These attacks on Belgorod are not new, and will continue to fail.
They’ve not gained the Ukrunazi regime’ anything in 12 months.
If NATO is desperate enough to adopt one of the least effective military strategies in history, well, have at it I say.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 22 2023 17:08 utc | 45

“Is there a good longform breakdown of the conflict from the start up to this point? I have kind of been following along but not really closely. I’m part of a discord that’s very convinced that UA is going to really stick it to RU and so it’s good I think to have a different view.”
Posted by: MajorMajor | May 22 2023 16:00 utc | 14
If that’s a genuine enquiry, might be better to start with a summary. This was the position around a year ago as stated on another site:-
1, This war was deliberately provoked by the West. Short of nuking Moscow we couldn’t have done much more to get the Russians rolling.
2. It’s as much a civil war as international. The Donbas, perhaps other areas of the old Ukraine, is no longer prepared to be ruled from Kiev. That, whatever Moscow or Washington do or say.
3. The military war was won as soon as started. Obvious.
4. Not so obvious is how that was done in practice. We’re looking, in terms of economy of force, disposition of troops and equipment, operational flexibility, integration of military with political aims, at an operation the military historians will be studying admiringly for decades.
5. It follows that Western attempts to prolong the war merely condemn more Ukrainian PBI to death. Our host has permitted me to write in on this point several times. It’s one I feel strongly about. If the neocon ghouls want to get at Russia this murderous sacrifice of our proxies is no way to do it.
6. Nevertheless the war itself is something of a side issue overall. It served as a means of getting the European public on side with the sanctions war. None thought the Russians could lose the war itself. The politicians put their money on breaking Russia with sanctions.
7. The sanctions war was lost soon after February. It won’t break Russia. It’ll break us.
8. The politicians know they’ve failed. They’re desperately trying to back off. But if the general public is as war hungry as those comments quoted above indicate, “We the people” won’t let them.
A few points I got wrong. Doesn’t one always?
– I never guessed we’d escalate as much as we have.
– I still believe that the politicians know this Ukrainian venture won’t fly – but they’re not so much “backing off” as setting the scene for Cold War II.
– I now believe Scholz was as much behind the disaster as Biden.
– And I entirely misunderstood the Germans.
On that last, a key point, I thought once they found out that Scholz, and Merkel before him, had been backing neo-Nazis they’d recoil in horror. “Nazi”, in the Germany I was used to, being a big NO.
They didn’t. Still working that one out.
An alternative version, now the standard version in the West for most, is that Putin launched an unprovoked attack on a peaceful neighbouring country as a start to recovering lost Soviet or Tsarist empires.
The two versions clash rather. Sorry about that but there’s no way of reconciling them. And since most of the Golden Billion believe the second, and most of the seven billion the first, we in the West are in deep trouble.
But if yours is truly a genuine enquiry, there’s now a wealth of reference material on the first version. Whichever version you choose to believe, the endgame will be the same.
1. We Europeans are in for Cold War II.
2. The Russians are faced with the problem of how to cope with remnant Ukraine. If they occupy it’s permanent trouble and expense. If they don’t, we can already see what our Western politicians have in mind. Remnant Ukraine will be flooded with weapons, and a modicum of financial assistance, that will enable us to use that remnant as a means of keeping the pressure on Russia.
What we’re doing now is sitting around waiting to see how the Russians solve that puzzle.

Posted by: English Outsider | May 22 2023 17:11 utc | 46

Posted by: MajorMajor | May 22 2023 16:00 utc | 14

Is there a good longform breakdown of the conflict from the start up to this point?

“b” did one of these a couple of months ago. He needs to update it though …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 22 2023 17:13 utc | 47

Posted by: Derek Henry | May 22 2023 16:48 utc | 31
I think the reasonable point is that all those defenses force traffic through chokepoints where any large offensive would get pummelled by aircraft and artillery but a sabotage group can drive up to the border without being noticed.
This isn’t an argument against those static defenses, if a big force tries to break through it looks like they’ll be cut to pieces, but it does demonstrate that live surveillance / intelligence was too weak to identify and track the enemy incursion and there wasn’t on-call fire support to engage dispersed, mobile forces.
This is a recurring theme that NATO strategists will continue to to exploit for as long as RF lacks a cost effective way to track and engage dispersed targets. Unmanned surveillance spotting for precision munitions seems to be the only realistic option.

Posted by: anon2020 | May 22 2023 17:13 utc | 48

Wasn’t Zaluzhny spotted the other day on the beach in Moorea with “Ayatollah Mike?””

Posted by: NOBTS | May 22 2023 17:18 utc | 50
Wasn’t that Epstein Island?

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 22 2023 17:20 utc | 49

Its quote impressive what the Russians have been able to accomplish using using machine chips and shovels

Posted by: Alex Thrace | May 22 2023 17:27 utc | 50

via slavyangrad I should learn how to put the url in.
Biden at a press conference in Hiroshima spoke about the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Judging by his words, he knows when it will begin.
“I can’t tell you exactly when that will be. Do you think I will tell you about the plans for the offensive?. If I answer, then there will be no success. But the fact is that we are privately face-to-face talking to Zelensky…
Should be other sources for this.
1. After his statement on NordStream’s preceding the event, very well might happen.
2. RF armed services might even be happy, start to decimate, retreat back one positional line and then a real counteroffensive against however degraged in fuel, ammo, forces the UKR has. Whole lotta daylight these days.
3. The insane depravity of having the G7 in Hiroshima. Two cities with minimal, microscopic military value (Hiroshima and Nagasaki) being nuked to show, deter the Soviet Union. Nagasaki was the most heavily Roman Catholic city in Japan and POW’s died in Hiroshima. There needs to be a new word to define the sociopathy on steroids and amphetamines that define these depraved insane warmongers.

Posted by: paxmark1 | May 22 2023 17:28 utc | 51

I doubt that most of you have ever watched “Back to the Future”, but America now resembles the alternative time line where Biffco was in control. Too bad I don’t have a time machine. By the way, Trump has more than a passing resemblance to Biff. Coincidence? Predictive programming? I’ll let you decide.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | May 22 2023 17:30 utc | 52

All these reports in the West are fools with headlines for laypeople…

Posted by: mo3 | May 22 2023 16:58 utc | 39
Yes, and connects to b’s other topic about the midden heap of Western propaganda.

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 22 2023 17:33 utc | 53

@ GSG9 | May 22 2023 16:50 utc | 32
My thoughts: It’s ridiculous twaddle.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | May 22 2023 17:34 utc | 54

I believe the effectiveness of the F-16 will surprise everyone in this blog.
The best time to destroy a military fighter plane is when it’s parked on the tarmac. If F-16s operate out of Ukrainian airbases, Russia will destroy them on the ground.
US might anticipate that and elect to operate them out of NATO bases in Poland or Romania with Ukrainian insignia and USAF pilots wearing the blue and yellow. I don’t know if international law would make these bases fair game for Russia but I don’t think Putin will do it.
Putin will likely order the Russian forces to take them out only while flying in Ukrainian airspace. Fortunately, the F-16’s combat radius puts Donbas out of reach.
But Crimea is another matter. F-16s operating out of Romania will have an easy time in Crimea which poses a logistical nightmare for Russia. Every naval vessel, every transport plane and the Kerch bridge is now a target making it hard to resupply S-400s and other air defenses in Crimean bases. If there is significant chance that an F-16 would survive, the secondary mission is close air support for Ukrainian offensive over the Dniper towards Crimea.
Given Elensky’s and Washington’s obsession with Crimea, this is the most likely mission profile for the F-16 in Ukraine. And they’re insane enough to call Putin’s bluff that he’d attack NATO bases and invoke article 5.
The information in this post about hypersonic air to air missiles and Sukhoi Felons suggests that Russia has a fighting chance against such an operation by taking them out in the black sea safely from a distance.
Russia might win the F-16 round as well but with much more losses than previous bsttles. Then comes the penultimate showdown when US forces UK to send it’s HMS carrier and F-35s. If Russia survives that too.. well Biden’s nuclear football will be very busy.

Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | May 22 2023 17:45 utc | 55

[1]
Last time I looked Mike Krupa was Polish not German

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 22 2023 17:45 utc | 56

Interesting!
—-
What really happened to the Patriot battery?
By DAVID P. GOLDMAN (https://asiatimes.com/2023/05/what-really-happened-to-the-patriot-battery/)
MAY 22, 2023
“Did Ukraine shoot down a Russian Khinzhal missile with an American Patriot battery, or did a Russian missile destroy the battery? Both. Ukraine fired 30 Patriot missiles in a near-simultaneous barrage last week. The partially hypersonic Khinzhal is vulnerable only in its last second-and-a-half of flight as it homes in on its target, and the Patriot battery fired everything it had to stop it. At $4 million a pop, the barrage might have cost $30 million, and seriously depleted Ukraine’s supply of missiles, European military sources report. Patriot is a top US export item, and the destruction of a Patriot battery by a Russian weapon would ruin the foreign market for the Raytheon defense system.
A retired high-ranking US military intelligence officer who now tracks the Ukraine war notes that the Russians inflicted some damage on the American system, which consists of several dispersed components. “Before Kyiv shut down all blogging on the subject, enough popped out to suggest that the real damage was to the generator van (which would certainly offer a nice heat signature if one of the missiles had an infrared seeker), and to some associated electronic support gear.””

Posted by: daffyDuct | May 22 2023 17:56 utc | 57

Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | May 22 2023 17:45 utc | 56
Technical question here: does the F-16 have the range to operate return trips from bases in Poland, Romania etc. without mid-air refuelling? (Though the ‘return’ part might well be irrelevant.)
And those mid-air refuelling tankers won’t, of course, be subject to the same integrated air defences as the F-16s, or are we looking at lots of smoke and flames?

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 22 2023 18:03 utc | 58

Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | May 22 2023 17:45 utc | 56

Russia might win the F-16 round as well but with much more losses than previous bsttles.

My prediction:
1. All those f16s will accomplish is to strike civilian infrastructure.
2. There will be next to no losses for Russian forces.
3. All of them will be knocked out once they appear over Ukrainian airspace for more than 5 minutes.
While they might believe they can make use of NATO’s protective umbrella in Romania, Moldova, Poland the big question is how fast they can outrun the many defensive missiles Russia has available to hunt and kill anything airborne …
So going back to my earlier question on this forum:
How much training does an f16 pilot need to outrun an s-300 missile ?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 22 2023 18:04 utc | 59

Posted by: daffyDuct | May 22 2023 17:56 utc | 59
By David P. Goldman, bullshit artist par excellence …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 22 2023 18:05 utc | 60

I wonder what happens now that everybody’s favorite show “Bakhmut” is over. Will Ukraine start it’s incredible super duper offensive or will the Russian weather machine stop it? Will the Russian army do anything at all without Wagner? What incredibly stupid escalation will the west do next? Is the Russian military rife with corruption at the highest level, or are they playing five D chess.
Your guess is as good as mine. They say that the first casualty of war is the truth. I think the last year has proved that statement totally correct.

Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 22 2023 18:10 utc | 61

Thanks for the interesting posts on the border defences anon2020 and Arch Bungle. Very much appreciated.

Posted by: Derek Henry | May 22 2023 18:11 utc | 62

“Then comes the penultimate showdown when US forces UK to send it’s HMS carrier and F-35s. If Russia survives that too..”
Are you on something? If so, can we all have some?
Posted by: HairyJeremy | May 22 2023 17:55 utc | 58

Which part? UK sending HMS carriers and F-35s or Russia surviving them?
Why is it so hard to believe it? The escalation went from Javelins to HIMARS to Challengers to Depleted Uranium to Patriots.
Last year also saw US blowing up Nordstream and US think tanks are now considering blowing up TSMC.
Again why is it so hard to believe Washington would do anything no matter how insane?

Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | May 22 2023 18:11 utc | 63

Per your admonition:

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Does that apply to overt Nazis, like we see here, regularly?
For instance, the reprobates retreating here from SST, or the overtly White Supremacists who regularly join up to shit on this font of truth?

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | May 22 2023 18:12 utc | 64

So let’s see the R-37M in action. I wonder, though, why someone who describes himself as “Latin Mass traditionalist dinosaur. Would like to drink a beer with Richard Nixon.” would be the kind of person who’d admire Putin. Or the kind of person a progressive board like this would turn to.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | May 22 2023 18:13 utc | 65

F16s: The Russians will be happy to further develop and hone in their air defenses to take out F16s. Officially, Putin will condemn the move. Behind the scenes, the Russian military is gearing up to the task and welcomes the challenge.
FURTHER ESCALATION: Anyone that thinks the Russo/Ukrainain conflict will end with a treaty needs to rethink their logic. The USA has no off-ramp. The USA has to take out Russia. Otherwise, it will quickly lose its world wide hegemony as the United States Dollar loses its world reserve currenty status. Russia will no longer trust the West and is winning the logistics war against NATO backed Ukraine.
WHERE IT ENDS: Tanks last month, F-16s this month, what about next month? Any accurately programmed AI would be telling you to get ready for nuclear war. AI has intelligence. People have emotions. Most without much intelligence.
WHEN: Most likely soon after Russia takes and secures all of the Donbas, the bear will launch against the USA and key NATO targets. The taking of the Donbas will neutralize a large portion of the NATO/Ukrainian troops on Russia’s Western border.
Such is in line with Biblical prophecy regarding the USA being MYSTERY, BABYLON THE GREAT THE MOTHER OF HARLOTS AND ABOMINATIONS OF THE EARTH. Such is in line with what the bear of Daniel 7:5 does after it has 3 ribs in its mouth between its teeth. Those 3 ribs could be Crimea, Dontesk, and Luhansk. If so, it is over for the USA soon after Russia takes and secures the Donbas which is Donetsk and Luhansk.

Posted by: young | May 22 2023 18:15 utc | 66

Our source reports that the Russians will continue to take the corpses of Ukrainian soldiers from under the rubble for the next few months. A lot of groups failed after the arrivals of the FABs.
There is a version that the Russians in this case will record a video of the “excavations” and throw it on the net as a demonstration that the Office of the President sent hundreds of soldiers to the Bakhmut meat grinder, and now most of them are listed as missing (buried under the rubble of houses) .
That is why our sources are inside that Zelensky will make every effort to recapture part of Bakhmut so that this negativity never surfaced in the public arena.

https://t.me/legitimniy/15405

Posted by: Down South | May 22 2023 18:16 utc | 67

The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Bakhmut “choked” – the city was lost, and the goals of the General Staff were not achieved, even despite the reserves and forces thrown into battle.
As a result, the Armed Forces of Ukraine temporarily stopped the operation to encircle Bakhmut, and there are no active hostilities at the moment. After the loss of the settlement, military sources believe that the main goal of the operation has been lost (besides, one should not discount the fact that the fall of Bakhmut’s “invincible fortress” will cause enormous moral damage to Kiev).
Despite a week of fierce fighting, no significant results were achieved on the flanks. Small progressive steps were exaggerated to the scale of grandiose victories, however, in fact, the Armed Forces of Ukraine failed to capture a single settlement to strengthen their positions. And the so-called “recaptured positions” are in open field conditions, making them an easy target for Russian artillery.
In order not to disperse the “zrada”, Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar still claims that the Armed Forces of Ukraine control certain objects in Bakhmut and the private sector in the “Airplane” area, and the Russians are carrying out a sweep in the areas of the city that they have taken under control. At the same time, the American “Institute for the Study of War” in its morning report acknowledged the capture of Bakhmut by Russian troops. According to experts, Ukrainian claims to control a “small” part of the city are only “a tacit admission that Russian forces have taken control of the rest of the western and northwestern Bakhmut, if not all.”
At the same time, the situation with Bakhmut raises questions that are unpleasant for the Office of the President regarding the widely announced Ukrainian counter-offensive – for example, if the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot hold Bakhmut and take Kleshcheevka in ten days, then what can we expect from a probable Azov battle, where it is necessary to storm large cities and force the Dnieper?

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17921

Posted by: Down South | May 22 2023 18:20 utc | 68

Posted by: Down South | May 22 2023 18:16 utc | 69
Watch Western censorship skyrocket to pre-Wall GDR levels in the next few weeks as they scramble to keep those images off the Net.
I wonder if Oryx will use those images…

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 22 2023 18:23 utc | 69

JustAmaverick @ 63
I looked into my crystal ball for you. But first my background thinking
.zelinsky and the west got their nose rubbed in it over The depleted uranium being returned to sender.
.ditto keiv’s prize air defence being KO’d.
Then of course Bahamut fell. Their to humiliated to say.
Zelensky running around the world like a headless chicken (apt)
Now a pronged period of silence and apparent inaction from the west.
What can it all mean ?
What happens next.
I’l tell ya……..
A suprise (not suprise) full on NATO attack on Russians in Ukraine and Russia itself..
Vladimir Putin knows it too.
But he’s not saying. No one is.

Posted by: Mark2 | May 22 2023 18:28 utc | 70

1. All those f16s will accomplish is to strike civilian infrastructure.
2. There will be next to no losses for Russian forces.
3. All of them will be knocked out once they appear over Ukrainian airspace for more than 5 minutes.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 22 2023 18:04 utc | 61
A decent set of predictions. I shall now go out on a limb and predict the F-16s won’t ever appear. There will be procrastination, obfuscation and prevarication by the various putative donor countries.
In fact, I’ll make a bet (not against you Sir Arch), when the ‘clobber report’ confirms the first downing of an F-16 I’ll donate the last instalment of my government’s energy subsidy payment to b’s running costs for the bar.

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 22 2023 18:33 utc | 71

The USA has no off-ramp. The USA has to take out Russia. Otherwise, it will quickly lose its world wide hegemony as the United States Dollar loses its world reserve currenty status.
Posted by: young | May 22 2023 18:15 utc | 68
Most people in the US, even the most insane ones, would choose losing their reserve currency status, money machine and even military superiority (imagined or real), over perishing in a nuclear war.
But israel will not. It needs its golem to continue existing, and that is why the US will never back down until it’s beaten to death.

Posted by: Mike | May 22 2023 18:38 utc | 72

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 22 2023 18:33 utc | 73

A decent set of predictions. I shall now go out on a limb and predict the F-16s won’t ever appear.

You’re probably right, Sir Andy. But it’s no fun without F16s, so we gotta have F16s …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 22 2023 18:38 utc | 73

The F16s give Ukraine new options for dragging NATO into the war. Flying them out of Polish or Romanian bases will invite strikes on those bases. Ukrainian F16s under attack by Russian missiles will try to run for the border, and if they are shot down across the border, that could be viewed as an attack on a NATO member. This is why Russia warned the U.S. about this dangerous escalation. The Russians are likely to destroy the F16s, no matter where they are.

Posted by: HH | May 22 2023 18:39 utc | 74

Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | May 22 2023 18:11 utc | 65
Great recap of the escalation arc.
Worse still, Empire is firing hobos at Russia whereas RF is expending its own guys and resources. Everything RF does needs to be about optimising its own costs in men & materiel.
Hitting that DU stockpile while it was all in one place is how business must be conducted. Risking planes, helicopters, tanks, skilled personnel … a last resort.
In this war of largely one-sided attrition, even Wagner’s prisoner recruits are a precious and finite resource.
Cost-optimised rockets, missiles, drones … lots of ’em

Posted by: anon2020 | May 22 2023 18:42 utc | 75

To add to my above mark2 @ 72…..
And from there on things start going down hill.

Posted by: Mark2 | May 22 2023 18:43 utc | 76

Which of the two is the biggest joke? A big floating target or a few airframes plopping into the Black Sea as they fail to negotiate the ramp at the end of the carrier.
Posted by: HairyJeremy | May 22 2023 18:40 utc | 77

No ship is making it past a few miles into the Black Sea if it ever gets to that.
The problem is that the very act of try to enter in the current situation creates a choice for Russia — start open war with the US/UK now (which they may not be ready for yet — how many Sarmats, A-235s and S-500s are deployed at this point?), or don’t force yet another red line and allow it to threaten Crimea.

Posted by: shadowbanned | May 22 2023 18:45 utc | 77

I find this more funny:
Group of Ukros invading Russian territory in the area of Graivoron!
How will the slow/ softy 5D chessmaster in kremlin react?
Is there an excuse to not declare a real war?
Will 5D grandfather continue with his wannabe most liberal russian leader who loves to spare ukronazis lifes?
His small ukronazi brothers dancing around chessmasters nose and he will react with another senseless speach?
Nato equipment with small ukronazi brothers crossing 5D borders like on a holiday adventure!!???
How is this possible in a state of war & terrorism???
Hahahaha unbelivable…….
What a certificate of poverty!
But fish always stinks from the head!

Posted by: ratko.mladic | May 22 2023 18:46 utc | 78

Despite all the huffing and puffing talk about the sin of nuking Japan, we actually killed several times more Japanese by fire bombing their cities.
>>The civilian death toll in Japan from Allied bombing was between 330,000 and 900,000 with an additional 112,000 killed from the atomic bombs.
If we want to feel all guilty about it, it should be over our tendency to bomb civilian areas with non-nuke bombs.
#59
>>At $4 million a pop, the barrage might have cost $30 million…
30 or 32 Patriot missiles worth 4 million a pop fired in a 2 minute time period cost $30 million?? 30 times 4 million equals $120 million or more. Reportedly, the overall air defense system cost a billion plus and apparently took some damage.

Posted by: Jmaas | May 22 2023 18:49 utc | 79

Posted by: HH | May 22 2023 18:39 utc | 76

The F16s give Ukraine new options for dragging NATO into the war.

Bingo!
NATO knows this.
The World Knows this.
The Russians know this.
The only question is whether the high priests of Chaos who rule from the Bohemian grove will give the order after feeling the entrails of a newly slaughtered animal …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 22 2023 18:49 utc | 80

53; I’d say that Biff is currently in control of the US, hence this proxy war.
Mark2, no matter what you and Young think, there will be no nuclear war over Ukraine. It will instead lead to the collapse of the western hegemonic empire, and de-dollarization. Nukes will be used against Iran after the rise of the H.R.E, after the king of the south pushes at the king of the north.

Posted by: Arcticman | May 22 2023 18:49 utc | 81

The “situation.” Stupid British PR stunt. This is all the Ukraine has anymore. Dumb stunts and terrorism.
Posted by: FVK | May 22 2023 15:50 utc | 12

Not really stupid, but an old English practice of keeping a stiff upper lip, even when it hurts (of course, not yourself, but your underlings). Terror, bluff and desinformation paired with unscrupulous crimes against humanity and arrogance (crime is OK, only a blunder is off limits), nothing new under the sun.
And like Hitler, the Ukroübermenschen admire this attitude, joining this habit and trying to assimilate.
Neah, won’t do.

Posted by: Kassandra | May 22 2023 18:52 utc | 82

I think that everyone will understand how this internal American scandal pertains to the war in Ukraine. To be blunt, the Ukrainian situation might have been resolved diplomatically if President Trump had not been encumbered by the accusations of “Russian collusion.”. Keep in mind that the Biden family was utilizing Hunter Biden as a conduit to funnel bribe money from the Ukraine and China to then Vice President Biden and his extended family.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/05/22/why-the-durham-report-matters-part-one-remember-the-russian-diplomats-expelled-by-obama/

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 22 2023 18:53 utc | 83

So let’s see the R-37M in action. I wonder, though, why someone who describes himself as “Latin Mass traditionalist dinosaur. Would like to drink a beer with Richard Nixon.” would be the kind of person who’d admire Putin. Or the kind of person a progressive board like this would turn to.
Posted by: Inkan1969 | May 22 2023 18:13 utc | 67

R-37Ms have been used almost daily. You never hear about it because this is the VKS, not the L/DNR militias or Wagner, so opsec is very tight. All you see is reports about such and such plane downed on such and such day, but no details on how it was done.
That hit at 200+ km range is one of the few that are public knowledge.
For comparison, the latest and greatest AIM-120D US AAMs only reach 160 km, and what they are developing now as next-gen AAM will have a range of 260 km. R-37Ms have a range of 400 km.

Posted by: shadowbanned | May 22 2023 18:53 utc | 84

Posted by: ratko.mladic | May 22 2023 18:46 utc | 81

I find this more funny:
Group of Ukros invading Russian territory in the area of Graivoron!

Can you provide a number for the operational efficiency of that mission?
Can it be said that more people died in the January Capitol invasion?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 22 2023 18:54 utc | 85

Which part? UK sending HMS carriers and F-35s or Russia surviving them?
Why is it so hard to believe it? The escalation went from Javelins to HIMARS to Challengers to Depleted Uranium to Patriots.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | May 22 2023 18:11 utc | 65

That is where it’s all headed, but the carriers are not the issue — those will be sunk within minutes.
The key questions are:
1) Can Russia track and sink the two Vanguard subs that are out at sea?
2) Do they have the balls to then go for total annihilation (they have to according to nuclear theory)
3) Will the US and France stay out of it if they do that (the rational course of action is to leave it there — why die over something that does not exist — but it is not rational actions that got us to this point in the first place so it’s naive to expect rational action in the future)

Posted by: shadowbanned | May 22 2023 18:54 utc | 86

Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | May 22 2023 17:45 utc | 56
What weapons, after all an F-16 is just a flying weapons platform, will it use to interdict MSR’s, shipping and challenge Russian air superiority?

Posted by: Milites | May 22 2023 18:54 utc | 87

(…) it is nevertheless a significant feat for the Russian Air Force because the R-37M took down the Ukrainian Sukhoi-27 from a range of 217km (about 140 miles). This would make the kill the longest on record.

Even though the F-22, despite does not have a LRAAM systems, it does have flight capabilities that most other aircraft do not.Tts supercruise capabilities enable the F-22 to travel in excess of the speed of sound without the use of afterburner, impressive kill ratios in training exercises

On paper, it would seem that both China and Russia have a range advantage over Western LRAAMs.

This author is completely unhinged, it is so funny the levels of cope in this piece.

Posted by: Bricked | May 22 2023 18:55 utc | 88

Question:
How much training does an F16 pilot need in order to be able to outrun an S-300 missile ?
… How about 2 S-300 missiles?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 22 2023 16:56 utc | 38
I would ask the Guys from MIG adventures. The following link shows one of their custumers experiencing missile evading maneuvers etc.
https://youtu.be/icZyYJoZ91w
From my point of view it is about to teach them taking off the aircraft. The russians will take care of the rest. So the first start will be the first and last mission at the same time.
What is more interesting is the question about the amount of effort needed to turn airplanes into drones. Airplanes can carry more and heavier weapon and are faster as drones. What has to and can be connected/linked to a CPU in an existing airplane. It could be indepent making own decisions or be remote controlled. Even a old MIG21 could help russia in this way. And no pilot needed.

Posted by: 600w | May 22 2023 18:56 utc | 89

Zelensky attempted to compare Bahkmut to the Battle of Saratoga…but in what way? Saratoga is commonly credited with changing the course of the Revolutionary war for 3 strategic reasons; 1. France’s money and 2. To enable French troops to militarily support the American side with crown sanction (other allies did both later) and 3. Control of the economic highway that was the Hudson River Valley. Or was he referring to the potential ‘narrative’ victory Ukraine and its funders desperately need to keep the party going and the money rolling in. Saratoga is the birth of American exceptionalism. Would Benedict Arnold have attempted to sell out to the British if he hadn’t been a disappointed believer because of the after action narrative? Zelensky already has lawyers, guns and money; he does seem to be running out of convincing lies.

Posted by: TacWitch | May 22 2023 18:57 utc | 90

Posted by: Bricked | May 22 2023 18:55 utc | 91
How is “on record” worthy of bold face in the context of alleged coping?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 22 2023 18:58 utc | 91

Posted by: anon2020 | May 22 2023 18:42 utc | 78

Worse still, Empire is firing hobos at Russia whereas RF is expending its own guys and resources.

All the Empire has left is hobos and leftovers.
There’s nothing left after this …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 22 2023 18:58 utc | 92

WHEN: Most likely soon after Russia takes and secures all of the Donbas, the bear will launch against the USA and key NATO targets. The taking of the Donbas will neutralize a large portion of the NATO/Ukrainian troops on Russia’s Western border.
Posted by: young | May 22 2023 18:15 utc | 68

That isn’t the threshold.
First, they would like very much to avoid doing it.
Second, if it is unavoidable, they need to be ready for it. The actual state of the strategic forces is kept under a very tight seal, so we have no idea what it is, and we are also laymen who know very little about much of the critical tech involved (e.g. how you silence early warning systems, how you track and sink subs, etc.). But based on what is public information, in order to get through the exchange in a recoverable state while inflicting irrecoverable damage to the West, Russia likely needs a lot more of the latest generation offensive weapons and, most importantly, air and missile defense systems, than it publicly has. Presumably they have been frantically building those while stalling in Ukraine. Presumably. When they are ready, then they will strike. Donbass has nothing to do with it.

Posted by: shadowbanned | May 22 2023 19:00 utc | 93

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 22 2023 18:53 utc | 86
Without reading the article, I can tell you that it was the Trump administration that made the decision to start sending actual weaponry to Ukraine. There was an “off the record” interview (which still got recorded) where Mike Pimpeous bragged that “Obama gave the Ukros MREs. We gave them Javelins.”
Trump would have likely resolved this thing diplomatically, but not before the SMO was at least 2 months old. That is, if he wasn’t neutered by the neocons in his cabinet or didn’t change his mind.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 22 2023 19:01 utc | 94

Articman @ 84
I honestly don’t know… you may be right you may be wrong.
But what I do know is… it sickines me that we should even have to be having this sereous conversation I hope you to.
How did we get here ?
And they call it civilisation.
The lunatics have taken over the asylum.

Posted by: Mark2 | May 22 2023 19:01 utc | 95

@Tom_Q_Collins
It is to provide contrast to the rest of the quote, in which the author compares the supposedly amazing capabilities of the F22 in “training exercises” to the proven capabilities of Russian fighters, and then implies that Russia and China are only strong “on paper”.

Posted by: Bricked | May 22 2023 19:05 utc | 96

Another rumor going on… supposedly Zelensky had somehow leaked Zaluzhny’s coordinates to Russia to remove a potential political threat. Absolutely no idea if true, make of it what you want.

Posted by: unimperator | May 22 2023 19:07 utc | 97

Speaking of funny:
Q: What’s DU stand for in Russian?
A: Depleted Ukrainian
And here’s one for the Bar to finish:
Q: How many Polacks does it take to fly an F-16?
A: ????

Posted by: Peter b | May 22 2023 19:10 utc | 98

“…the Ukrainian situation might have been resolved diplomatically if President Trump had not been encumbered by the accusations of “Russian collusion…” Elmer Fudd@86
There is no need to be a Trump fan to agree with this statement. And the fact that Trump ended up- in a silly attempt to appease his enemies- by going further than Obama in assisting Ukraine doesn’t contradict the point that Elmer makes at all.
The entire Russiagate business would soon have collapsed as Democratic Party subversion, were it not that the Deep State was so committed to the basic principle of smashing Russia into bite sized chunks. Its a principle that long pre-dates not only the CPSU but the Communist Manifesto. It is the basis of the maritime versus land based imperial competition. And the US has always been of the naval mind.

Posted by: bevin | May 22 2023 19:12 utc | 99

All the Empire has left is hobos and leftovers.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 22 2023 18:58 utc | 95
Unfortunately they seem to be the ones in charge…

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 22 2023 19:14 utc | 100

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