Ukraine Open Thread 2023-122
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on May 21, 2023 at 12:48 UTC | Permalink
next page »In the United Nations last week
1.Russia blasts NATO and USA: $65 Billion for weapons to Ukraine while only $18 billion spent on food security.
2. USA tries to justify the weapons
3, China defends Russia “We have not sent any weapons into Ukraine”
Video https://twitter.com/AbrahamStein8/status/1660269143252254720?s=20
Posted by: Dave Oneil | May 21 2023 13:02 utc | 2
The copium among nazis on Twitter about Artëmovsk is insane.
And hilarious.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | May 21 2023 13:17 utc | 3
In Zero Hedge today there was an article titled "Ukraine must lose to save the world" by Martin Armstrong that accurately describes my own feeling on the subject.
It should be a given to anyone with any clue at all that this conflict is an existential threat to Russia who will defend their interests and their country...to the death. This seems obvious to anyone other than the psychopaths who lead the west and who show no sign of understanding this or pretty much anything at all. They have staked literally everything on this insane gambit, economically and militarily, and they are losing. But instead of talking peace, they appear in every way to be as insane as I have been declaring them to be for more than a year. Time is against them and they are on the clock with their own populations starting to turn against them, their economies waver on the verge of crashing, and an election in the US could turn all their dreams of world domination to ashes.
Any sane person or country might see all this as a good time to ratchet down tensions and find some way out of this clusterf#%k of their own creation. But they are too stupid, too arrogant, too drunk on their own propaganda, and so far gone in their psychopathy, that to them the only viable solution is to escalate the war even if it lead's to nuclear war. I will be very surprised if they don't.
Unlike most people who believe when it comes to it, sane minds will prevail and nuclear war will be avoided, I totally disagree. Because there IS NO SANE MINDS in the decision making process. I believe we are at the most dangerous place in the history of our species, with madmen at the controls. I believe in some act of historic stupidity they are going to take us over the edge. I do not believe they have the ability or desire to do anything else.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 21 2023 13:20 utc | 4
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🇬🇧 About Storm Shadow Strikes in #Mariupol and #Berdyansk⚡️💥 The AFU continue to strike in the rear of Russian new territories with British Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Over the past two days, objects on the territory of the #Mariupol and #Berdyansk airfields have been subjected to fire damage.
The AFU is tasked with thinning out Russian aviation, hence the choice of targets. In the cities located on the shore of the Sea of Azov, the targets were the objects of the Russian Aerospace Forces. Yes, the enemy failed to inflict effective fire damage. In #Berdyansk, the mass meal in the dining hall was already over at the time of the impact.
But this speaks, first of all, about the approach. The curators (the expenditure of Storm Shadow on targets is under strict control from the British) set out to reduce the flight capabilities of the RF Armed Forces. If we take into account 👉 the data about the current number of aircraft in the Air Force and the imminent delivery of Western flight equipment, it can be concluded that one of the goals of the AFU will be to gain air supremacy this year.
📌 It is possible and necessary to defend against Storm Shadows. We cannot say with certainty how well Russian air defense systems cope with British cruise missiles. But we know that the dispersal of equipment and the relocation of headquarters and control points to reserve positions in non obvious places are the best precautions.
📜 RYBAR; 24 May 2023, 14:06
https://t.me/sitreports/9000
Posted by: Down South | May 21 2023 13:31 utc | 5
JustAMaverick
You should go to the Week in Review just put up and read the Substack interview between Russian blogger and French Russian author/blogger. The situation inside Russia isn't nearly as unified as you might assume.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 21 2023 13:32 utc | 6
The Western press wrote that Zelensky confirmed the surrender of Bakhmut. Of course, this turned out to be a shame, since the entire world press began to write about it.The bank realized that they hit the post and urgently needed to do something. At this moment, Zelensky's press secretary refutes this message, hinting that there are still units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Bakhmut, and the Western press has misunderstood everything.
But why didn’t Zelensky write this in his official Telegram channel, but gave the task of covering up his statement to his subordinates?
This usually happens when the topic is stale and uncomme il faut to take on the negative with outright lies, shifting the public blow to people like Arestovich used to be, now Podolyak, this time Nikiforov.
According to our information, the city is lost, but Zelensky instructed to continue the attack on the city and the outskirts. The OP needs this victory in the Bakhmutov meat grinder, since they “sell” it to their Western partners as the beginning of that very offensive.
https://t.me/legitimniy/15397
Posted by: Down South | May 21 2023 13:33 utc | 7
Tom Q (6)
I try to get as much information on the goings on in Russia as I can, and yes it is not all roses and sunshine I agree. But when it comes to Mother Russia and it's very survival...remember the west has made it completely clear that their intention is nothing less then the destruction and break up of Russia into little pieces, I think it foolish to believe they will do anything other than defend themselves...to the death.
This is existential for them...is it not Tom Q? Do you think the people of Russia will rise up and overthrow their government so they can let the West rape and pillage them? I don't think so....
Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 21 2023 13:41 utc | 8
Our source in the OP said that Syrsky informed Zelensky about the suspension of the counteroffensive near Bakhmut, due to difficult conditions. Heavy rains are expected next week, which will greatly complicate the maneuverability of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which have become very exhausted in recent days.It is difficult to continue the counteroffensive in such conditions and it is necessary to go on the defensive, after the loss of Bakhmut, it is necessary to change the plan of Syrsky with the girth of the city along the flanks.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17889
Colleagues, our official speakers are far behind the situation at the front, already today Syrsky reported to Zelensky about the cessation of the counteroffensive on the flanks of Bakhmut, which means that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to conduct local operations.The appearance of Zaluzhny publicly should shift the focus from the failure of Syrsky's plan, which was supposed to remove the blockade from the roads of Bakhmut, but is now losing its relevance.
First we lost reserves in the meat grinder in the city, and now we offer in the fields without good defensive positions.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17893
We want to conduct an educational program, for our propaganda, what the flanks are based on the map of the Ukrainian public Deep State, which displays the real situation at the front.Visually, you can see that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now in the center and we are still very far from the flanks of Bakhmut, as well as to the “semicircle of Malyar”, Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar clearly stated nonsense against the backdrop of the loss of the city, which only discredits official sources.
We already wrote about the counter-offensive, it has been suspended and no action will be taken until the headquarters.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17895
We wrote that the decision on Bakhmut will be made at the headquarters, but while Zelensky is out of the country, there is no way to carry it out, and military decisions are completely tied to the Office of the President.The position of the President changed and it was decided to shift the focus from the loss of control over Bakhmut to the side we remain in the area of the city.
The Ukrainian military is in Bakhmut, it has not been completely captured by the Russian Federation, Zelensky clarified his morning words about the situation in the city at a press conference in Japan.
"The Ukrainian military is in Bakhmut, they are performing a very important task. This suggests that today Bakhmut has not been captured by the Russian Federation. There can be no two or three interpretations of this."
Bankovaya is still a complete mess and everyone is voicing a different position, but after Zelensky’s statement in the media, there is a clear position.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17896
The semi-environment of Malyar gradually developed into the tactical encirclement of Syrsky. We understand that it is necessary to shift the focus from the loss of Bakhmut, but with such statements, the military command demonstrates its incompetence!The counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been going on for ten days, and we could not even take Kleshcheevka, a village of several dozen houses. If we start the Azov battle at such a pace, then a logical question will arise, and the capture of Trkmak will be considered the result of the counteroffensive?
Again! A counteroffensive has been going on for ten days, in which Syrsky received all the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and even Western tanks, but so far we have been able to take 7 fields and have lost the main fortified area in Bakhmut!
There are no fools in the West and our propaganda is relayed, but the conclusions are correct.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17897
Posted by: Down South | May 21 2023 13:45 utc | 9
About Zaluzhny.No one knows the truth on where he is or in what condition he is.
Here are just some interesting "coincidences" as food for thought.
JokerDPR writes (in the post linked above) that he was seriously injured in a missile strike on Pavlograd.
- Head of the Dnepropetrovsk administration confirms (Iskander) strike on Pavlograd on May 8.
- Alina Slobodyanyuk, one of employees of Ukrainian National Military Medical Clinical Center, reports of an "important person" with serious injuries being admitted to their hospital. Also on May 8.
Just a thought, we will find out eventually.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/64469
Posted by: Down South | May 21 2023 13:47 utc | 10
Perhaps the scariest thing about the western world and Ukraine in particular is that, in fact, money and greed aren't the priority. If they were, a form of peace through negotiation would prevail.
Corporations and nations are now playthings of the elite - who have tired of chasing money. The Bud Light disaster shows this. So does the failure of German businesses to prevent the economic decay of their nation via sanctions. In my own neighborhood, many of us are puzzled why major chains keep building more hotels that remain empty nearly the entire year. And there's no end to debt, ever, ever.
Even weirder than that is why westerners are becoming so fanatical about political ideologies (instead of money) while organized religion fades away. Do they think an afterlife rewards them for advancing LGBTQ ideas?
The harsh result to come will emerge from Reality Long Denied. Ukraine will go on fighting and being slaughtered indefinitely. They seem to have nothing else to live for, certainly not child bearing and families as trending towards their national survival. I would appreciate being wrong here. "To the last Ukrainian" might not be the hyperbole many think it is.
Posted by: Eighthman | May 21 2023 13:50 utc | 11
Germany is much less capable than Ukraine in warfare. Poland will only do what benefits Poland, Not NATO.
Predicting no Ukrainian offensive was easy--they have to have SOMETHING left to validate their regime.
----------
Russia will offer no quarter.
Germany isn't stupid. Block-headed, yes. Are they smart enough to put this all together?
The laser dot is inevitably on them.
Posted by: Elmagnostic | May 21 2023 13:53 utc | 12
Is Russia developing hypersonic Novichok which cas hit Russian dissidents, in Germany, without the use of underpants or door handles?
This could be a game changer, I am told.
Posted by: Merkin Scot | May 21 2023 13:55 utc | 13
@1
watch the flow of c-17 and c-5.
a ‘serious’ deployment of 100 + fighters from usa would include several hundred loads of cargo to keep up a sustained operation tempo.
that said 100 more fighters in usa order of battle would not be enough….
Posted by: paddy | May 21 2023 14:04 utc | 14
Been a lurker for a while and commented only once, perhaps twice. Not sure if this is the place for it but I commented somewhere so I might as well translate it here because I have seen a similar comment before. It connects Geopolitics of UKUS vs Germany, USSR and Russia but also Yugoslavia:
(as reply to some comment saying how small countries are utterly at the mercy of Great powers)...
Even some of the big countries are assambled and dissasembled and are led to do stupid things once again by wish of other Greater powers. Germans are one example though they have dug their grave mostly on their own with just a little bit of nudging from the side. They have contributed considerably to the fact that alliance with Russia and connection of high technology and vast industry and resources never materialised even though it would have benefited both.
Whenever they raised their heads they were smacked. I even have a theory that British-American interference in the Balkans during 1990s and later expansion of EU and NATO towards the east might have been aimed more against the Germans than against Russia, or at least in equal measure. Especially once it was noticed that newly united Germany can gain as puppet states nearly entire Eastern Europe. In the early 1990s German economic influence on that transitional region was the main one, and deutchmark was a de facto reserve currency in nearly all of those countries.
In Slovenia and Croatia Germans had decisive influence on their seccession in 1991, funneling of weapons into them via Hungary and rapid recognition and squashing of any kind of compromise solution. Through them German sphere expanded onto the Adriatic and they were well on the way
to in revanchistic crusade become a major power and nearly renew their sphere of influence from the time of Reich. They succeeded in this because during 1991 UK-US empire was focused on ensuring USSR fallout „going how it should“ according to them.
However, once that was done they immediately noticed what Germans were doing. It can be seen in the fact that suddenly they put all their resources into war in Bosnia going ahead so there would be a need for their pressence. While during 1991 USA called multiple times for restraint and recognized Croatia and Slovenia relatively lately, for Bosnia they were in a hurry even when others suggested caution and there was a functional peace treaty signed in early 1992 that pre-empted the war. US ambassador Zimmerman practically crushed that peace deal by one call to Alija Izetbegović who retracted his signature and ensured war.
One can be seen that there were two competing concepts on who to use for restraining german influence. One was to work via some kind of rump Yugoslavia for which the tracks were set up in advance (organization of Federal Republic Yugoslavia in the end turned out to be weird, grotesque even with only Serbia and Montenegro inside, however with another 2 republics it would have made some sense) and they have sent that Panić guy to be the prime-minister which is a similar thing they did in much of Eastern Europe, sending a diaspora member from America.
What in the end turned them to support muslims in the end was the fact that they needed to wash out a bit the media image about themselves in the islamic world after attack on Iraq, because muslims were crucially important for further planned weakening of Russia. Another aim was that from the inside through takeover of aid and training of Croat army even Croatia would be taken away from the hands of Germans. By direct interventions in 1995 and 1999 against the Serbs Americans and British got open millitary pressence and took over undoubtedly the main role in the region.
As for the Germans another lever of power was knocked out of their hands by introduction of euro which they no longer controlled on their own, then through various reforms of EU and their further expansions their voice meant less and less and they couldn’t reach many decisions independently because smaller countries now more tied to oversea empire could outvote them. In same way by inducting eastern-european countries into NATO practically all of them got a new master, while without american meddling they would have likely been under primary influence of Germans. In contrast to that today Poland and Romania and although not in NATO, Ukraine also are used to cut any sort of ties between Germany and Russia.
Posted by: Lazar | May 21 2023 14:04 utc | 15
RIA News.
Interior Ministry puts International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan on the wanted list.
Members of the International Criminal Court (ICC) said they were frightened by reports that the organization’s judges and prosecutor were being put on the wanted list, they consider these acts of “intimidation”.
Posted by: la bouteille | May 21 2023 14:05 utc | 16
JAM:
Actually I have not a clue. Perhaps flee conscription rather than rise up and overthrow. At least in Russia proper. Many of their best soldiers are from other regions. I agree that it's existential to the RF but it's not going to be a war on their home soil, rather a kind of repeat in lesser terms of what happened after the USSR fell. Namely a balkanization and sell-off of whatever is left of the public sphere to western capitalist interests. How does a government convince a kid to join the army to defend against that? Because the only other place they are fighting is in Ukraine and the reclaimed territories. I find myself somewhat more sympathetic to the arguments that get one labeled a concern troll of late. Meaning I think the longer this drags on the more likely Putin pays a political price and the more likely the Evil Empire is to find a chink in the armor.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 21 2023 14:08 utc | 17
Continuation of previous one (Forgot to translate final bit): Change of consciousness among Germans, supression of any kind of national pride and intentional imbecilization of their elites to do stuff for their own damage and for outside interests is another thing that makes Germany more similar to smaller puppet states than to great powers.
Posted by: Lazar | May 21 2023 14:11 utc | 18
la bouteille | May 21 2023 14:05 utc | 16
The ICC. Corruption with a double C. Russia has put them on the wanted list and now they are shitting their pants. Dead men walking.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 21 2023 14:12 utc | 19
@Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 21 2023 13:20 utc | 4
There are no sane minds because everyone in the American empire is lying to everyone else all the time. You would think that the higher ups would understand the difference between reality and the lies they create for public consumption, but many of them seem to genuinely believe the lies themselves. What they do may even be entirely rational within the fantasy universe they have constructed with their propaganda, but in reality it is insane.
Posted by: FVK | May 21 2023 14:14 utc | 20
@ JustAMaverick | May 21 2023 13:20 utc | 4
re: I believe in some act of historic stupidity they are going to take us over the edge.
Are we not over the edge? Gun violence (GV) is the major cause of child deaths, 102 children age 0-11.. Total GV deaths: 16,385. Over 200 mass killings so far this year. Over 20,000 total gun deaths last year. More stats here.
So much for "we kill them overseas so we don't have to kill them here." It seems that gun violence is contagious.
Posted by: Don Bacon | May 21 2023 14:26 utc | 21
I have been thinking as John Helmer, 250 Nato Airplanes i Europa.
But i have been wondering if maybe Serbia is the target. Stir up a new conflict with possibly Kosovo, divert attention, irritate Russia who can not intervine on Serbia's behalf.
You could bury the Ukrainian disaster that way- and punish Serbia... for being Serbia, the brothers of Russians.
Zalnuzy and Syrku could finaly die as Heros of Ukraine- Zel could been disapeared/looose an election/ maybe die in an airplanecrash/ with Zalnutzhy/ Syrku, and the conflict could be prolonged to eternity.
Only posibilities!
Ps. I think Serbia bougth some Chinees airdefences some two years ago- another reason to bomb them!
Posted by: Paul from Norway | May 21 2023 14:31 utc | 22
Lazar@15
You raise some valid points. I to have felt that the Euro was actively being taken down by the US specifically because it was a viable alternative to the US dollar. Germany being the cornerstone of the Euro would have to be weakened.
Posted by: Cofcanuckistan | May 21 2023 14:32 utc | 23
https://johnhelmer.net/bravado-before-capitulation-will-russian-defeat-of-us-patriot-missile-be-followed-by-ukrainian-f-16-attack-during-the-nato-air-defender-23/
John Helmer weighs in on the F-16s.
Posted by: FVK | May 21 2023 12:54 utc | 1
Yesterday, in his speech congratulating Prigozhin and Wagner on their victory over the Ukies with the taking of Artemovsk, President Putin announced that he activated the "PERIMETER" system.
The PERIMETER system is Russia's "dead hand" automatic response system to attacks on Russia proper. It controls launch and targeting of Russia's Nuclear Triad/Strike Force.
When I read this, I was mystified.... Why should this victory cause activation of PERIMETER???
Now, with Helmer's analysis, I understand...
Russia takes the threat of a NATO first strike/ decapitation strike.... seriously...
This specifically means.... if NATO uses the "Exercises" as cover for a strike against Russia... Russia will launch a massive nuclear strike on NATO...
Are the NATO capos that crazy???
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 21 2023 14:38 utc | 24
Tom_Q_Collins@17
I share your angst about the pace of SMO. Then I Remind myself that this is about all the marbles. Ukraine is but one of the fronts in this asymetric World War. Certain aspects have to be coordinated and timed with other initiatives and events, as well with other players. Plus any confrontation is never one-sided. I just hope that their strategy is valid.
Posted by: Cofcanuckistan | May 21 2023 14:48 utc | 25
Now you should not be surprised by the fact that Ukrainians use telegrams to find out the real situation in the country, and do not watch a single marathon.60% of Ukrainians receive news from Telegram channels, while only 36% of fellow citizens consume news from television.
Most of all, Ukrainians do not trust the media in terms of coverage of events at the front / corruption and the activities of the authorities.
These are the results of a USAID-Internews study on media consumption published at the end of 2022.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17900
Posted by: Down South | May 21 2023 14:53 utc | 26
Norway and the Nederlands has sold some of their F-16 to the American Company Draken. Experient Ex- military pilots fly them, and often train as an enemy of yhe USAF.
https://theaviationist.com/2021/12/10/draken-acquires-f-16s/
Flying mercenaries!
There are more companies like this in the USA.
And then there is Transnistria.
Open a new front there with Romanian Troops after Moldovia ask for help from their Romanian brothers to liberate their Transnistrian Territory?
From bases in Moldova- Crimea can be reached by plane.
Only possibilies.
Posted by: Paul from Norway | May 21 2023 14:55 utc | 27
Dr. George W Oprisko | May 21 2023 14:38 utc | 24
It's a wild world we live in. The woke have no understanding of the changing of era.
Perhaps experience is not a good thing, but when I was young I watched a couple of brothers sort out the town hoons. The younger brother, every time he swung, a man went down. We are about to watch that on a geo-political scale.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 21 2023 14:56 utc | 28
#5 Rybar: "it can be concluded that one of the goals of the AFU will be to gain air supremacy this year."
One of my goals this year is to add £2 million to my protfolio of penny miners, currently worth about £200. Then I will join the WEF. Just common sense really.
Posted by: tom paine | May 21 2023 15:02 utc | 29
Down South @26
The problem with the internet is that it has pigeonholed people. There are algorithms that see your reading habits and enure that you continue down that path. You end up in an echo chamber of like minded enthusiasts. I'm a victim to, that's why I'm here ;-) seriously though I like how some barflies such as yourself have varied their source material.
Posted by: Cofcanuckistan | May 21 2023 15:04 utc | 30
@ Paul from Norway | May 21 2023 14:31 utc | 22
But i have been wondering if maybe Serbia is the target. Stir up a new conflict with possibly Kosovo, divert attention, irritate Russia who can not intervine on Serbia's behalf.
Why would they go for that? Serbia's position is in a rather tricky neighbourhood where “just bombing” wouldn't solve anything, nor would be sustainable as it was in 1999. Hungary was not in NATO, way back then, so as any of Serbia's close neighbours.
What did actually NATO achieve by bombing Serbia? Serbian Army was weakened by less than 5%, NATO planes missed a lot, destroying what Serbs showed them.
They devastated the country's civilian infrastructure and caused a way too many casualties to do "hearts and minds" offensive there.
Also, if one doesn't put boots on the ground, an air campaign is rather useless in achieving anything useful except destruction.
While many have a perception that Serbia and Russia are "the one" it is a wrong one.
As in general mentality, those two differ more than say Swedes and Finns.
The same religion connects lots of similar dots there, but truly a totally different level of society's conciseness and perspective.
NATO would never try to put combat boots to fight Serbs, and Serbs know that. NATO bases in Kosovo stand no chance of surviving there longer than a week, and NATO knows that too.
So, flaming the Balkans again is just utter sepukku for NATO – but, hey!
Didn't RF want NATO on its 1991 borders?
So what you say in that context might be doable, as I doubt that RF is afraid of crossing any lines to help with it.
I mean, that would be a major, major, major, unbearable escalation for many Balkan nations regardless whether or not they are in NATO.
Posted by: whirlX | May 21 2023 15:10 utc | 32
emersonreturn | May 21 2023 5:33 utc | 340 asked for my views on the future of the SMO. I had already been working on a response to a similar request made by Pacifica Advocate | May 20 2023 18:02 utc
This response will take the form of a series of posts. I have no doubt my speculation on the future is incorrect. But I have confidence in the knowledge and acerbic perspicacity of the MoA bar and will therefore format each post with a header so a general consensus may emerge. Emersonreturn asked that I comment on the latest post by Simplicius; I have avoided reading his recent work so the bar will likely have available two contrasting speculations.
THE FUTURE OF THE SMO - PHASE I ORIGINS
In 2014 the US sponsored the overthrow of the democratically elected government of 404. US, UK, and Canada immediately commenced training missions to bring the UAF up to NATO standards.
The victor always writes history (WWII is an exception to this aphorism) and we will be forced to wait several years until the history of the SMO is made available in translation from the Russian originals. I believe the following is a reasonable précis of events critical to a valid conception of the SMO post the liberation of Artyomovsk.
In February 2020 the US sought to provoke a RF attack on the fortified bunkers of the UAF fronting the Donbass. Evidence is found in the OSCE documentation of an increasing weight of UAF artillery fire on the civilian population, weekly Biden pronouncements on the imminence of RF attack, and Western contempt for repeatedly voiced RF security concerns. The West wanted this conflict and François Hollande (the most unpopular president of the 5th Republic) and Angela Merkel (the claimed most powerful woman in the world) have confirmed the Minsk Accords were undertaken in bad faith for the sole purpose of preparing the UAF to commence hostilities. This conduct constitutes a violation of both the UN and NATO Charters and is therefore a war crime.
If RF or the Donbass militia had commenced such a frontal attack they would have incurred heavy casualties. Following imposition of these losses the UAF would have been free to advance against both the Donbass and the Crimea with the objective of reasserting UAF possession.
THE FUTURE OF THE SMO - PHASE II HOSTILITIES
Winston Churchill told an anecdote about the man who attempted to give a powder to a bear. He carefully inserted the powder in a straw, applied the tip to the nostril of the bear, put his mouth to the straw and prepared to blow. But the bear blew first.
RF responded to the Western provocations with a hasty attack on multiple axes including a critical airborne landing at Hostomel airport outside Kiev. The intent of these attacks was to: 1) Confuse the UAF as to RF intentions; 2) Force the UAF to abandon their planned offensive and switch to a defensive response, repositioning all their forces to do so; 3) Make clear Russia's intent to act on its voiced security concerns and its intent to defend itself against further NATO encroachment (UN Article 51 right to self defence); 4) Drive 404 toward negotiations.
Objective 1,2, and 3 were achieved. Objective 4 failed and the RF found itself under increasing pressure as UAF mounted its defensive response to the RF initiative. Russia was forced to acknowledge its the economy of force attack was inadequate in the face of well trained and equipped UAF forces.
THE FUTURE OF THE SMO - PHASE III RETROGRADE
Russia withdrew to more defensible positions, and commenced to attrit the UAF using long range fires. PHASE III sought to buy Russia the time required to reassess its strategy, its force structure, its equipment, and its level of industrial production. As stated in uncle tungsten | May 18 2023 10:58 utc | 246 Russia reinvented itself on the run while engaged in military conflict. Such reassessment is typical in commencing conflict. The Germans reassessed after Fall Weiss, the UK after the retreat from the Dyle, the Americans in Tunisia, the Soviets after Operation Mars.
During this phase the majority of all offensive actions was undertaken by the Wagner PMC while Russia mobilized its population, altered its force structure, increased military production, strengthened its defensive lines, and trained its new forces.
The attack on the Kiev Patriot battery was an inflection point in this war (see Sushi | May 18 2023 18:53 utc | 47). Russia demonstrated its military capacity to the West and made it abundantly clear the RF held escalation dominance using conventional weapons. The evidence for this assertion is found in Washington's subsequent mooting of a "frozen" conflict, the Hersh reporting of unease in Poland and the Baltics, Z's avoidance of a return to Kiev, and an increase in "realist" western reporting on the conflict.
THE FUTURE OF THE SMO - PHASE IV INTERLUDE
This brings us up to the present moment. We face a momentary interlude and this raises the question of "What Happens Next?"
Militarily Russia presently holds the initiative and has a roughly four month window before the next tranche of Western Wunderwaffen makes its appearance on the battlefield.
I think it worth while to note the collective West is demonstrating a response identical to that of the Germans in the period following their defeat in Operation Bagration (The Soviets destroyed 28 of 34 opposing German divisions, shattered the German front line and were but one bound away from being in sight of Berlin). In 1944 the Allies held the initiative, had clear escalation dominance, superior logistics, a massive over-match in industrial production, and exceeded the enemy in military skill. Germany faced defeat; its Wunderwaffen response constituted an irrational denial of military reality. The contemporary West is presently engaged in a equal denial of military reality.
The UAF is presently positioned on an arc fronting the Donbass and the Zaporizhzhia front. The "offensive" flanking manoeuvre around Artyomovsk demonstrated the incapacity of the UAF to make substanial gains against Russian long range fires.
It will not have escaped the Russian command that there exists a potential for a 4th Battle of Kharkov or, if you conceive of Artyomovsk as a contemporary Stalingrad, Operation Uranus Redux.
This offensive will likely involve a feint against Kharkov intended to draw the UAF forces out to defend the city (I suspect the majority of the newly trained and equipped UAF forces are presently held in urban areas and have not yet been deployed. The feint seeks to force the UAF to deploy).
The RF will also likely undertake a range of spoiling attacks along the entire line of contact to confuse the UAF and keep them off balance. The RF may happily withdraw in the Donbass if this causes the UAF to reinforce an assumed operational success.
I believe the RF major axis of attack will be from the Karkov area (I can provide objectives and phase lines but prefer not to be too explicit as: 1) I am most likely wrong and 2) I do not know to whom CIA Lurker may report). This attack will be Operation Uranus 2023 and will achieve similar effect to the original - trapping the UAF on the Donbass front and cutting off all its supply routes. The trapped forces represent the bulk of the UAF. They will have Russian mobile forces both to their rear and to their front with an ever diminishing stock of ammunition, rations, and POL. I expect the majority to surrender. Many of them are likely to be unwilling Russian speaking conscripts who will turn their rifles on their Nazi commissars and then join the Russian army and assist in prosecuting Phase V. See Elmer Fudd | May 21 2023 3:29 utc | 322 and associated posts for evidence.
In the next post I will seek to explain why what I have described here is, to borrow from the Lawrence of Arabia screenplay, "Nothing but a sideshow to a sideshow."
Posted by: Sushi | May 21 2023 15:22 utc | 33
@ Dr. George W Oprisko | May 21 2023 14:38 utc | 24
Russia takes the threat of a NATO first strike/ decapitation strike.... seriously...
Yes, RF demonstrated many times again that it is a serious state.
This specifically means.... if NATO uses the "Exercises" as cover for a strike against Russia... Russia will launch a massive nuclear strike on NATO...
That exercises would be very closely monitored by RF. I also expect many more RF's aerial patrols there, while probably intimidating NATO planes, on and off.
NATO has no organised technological supremacy to hurt, surprise or damage RF on a strategic level. Only tactical pinpricks.
Are the NATO capos that crazy???
They are. Let them try.
Posted by: whirlX | May 21 2023 15:23 utc | 34
Poland is a mystery. Yes it has been run over from all sides by neighbouring countries but what Poland must be most traumatized by is that Fredrick II had exactly the same challenges and yet he turned Prussia into a military superpower. Is that what Poles are trying to emulate?
Posted by: Jonathan W | May 21 2023 15:23 utc | 35
whirlX@32
Religious beliefs have been reason enough for many a conflict through the eons. Look at what Ukraine has done. Just another excuse for asserting control. The west's airpower is used as a hammer. Any perceived problem is a nail. Now its a "whack-a-mole" scenario where no matter how hard they try they can't seem to win. The psychopaths just might do what you suggest. They have no remorse and seem to double down every time.
Posted by: Cofcanuckistan | May 21 2023 15:35 utc | 36
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 21 2023 14:38 utc | 24
Are the NATO capos that crazy???
NATO still has a sense of self-preservation, however their masters in Washington believe themselves immortal.
This is the point of highest desperation for NATO.
If they couldn't hold Bakhmut they must now realise that it's all downhill from here.
So they've now got to make a final call on whether they're "all in", or need to start coming to terms with defeat.
If they're "all in", they only thing left that might change the game for NATO is an all out attack on Russia.
I think that's what Putin might have calculated in activating Perimetr.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 21 2023 15:38 utc | 37
@ Jonathan W | May 21 2023 15:23 utc
Certainly there must be another explanation for Prussia’s rise. Frederick II was, after all, and as is well known, an expert player of the flute, skin- as well as transverse. Or, to use that most popular term on this site, a “faggot.” ;-)
Posted by: malenkov | May 21 2023 15:40 utc | 38
TThis seems obvious to anyone other than the psychopaths who lead the west and who show no sign of understanding this or pretty much anything at all.Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 21 2023 13:20 utc | 4
Why dont you cut it short and tell the simple truth:
The M.O.B. is in charge in the West as well as in Kiev ...
They just won't stop moving public big money from the West to Kiev and back to lining their pocket in well known tax heavens. No matter which obsolete rusty weaponry from the 70s they claim to be sending for destruction - Russia obliging - in Eastern Ukraine, all that counts is money moves ...
They are no psychopaths, they are the f.cking MOB!
And yes they are drunk, and yes they are all crackpots.
Posted by: Greg Galloway | May 21 2023 15:40 utc | 39
Tom_Q_Collins-
Anyone paying proper attention to this war is aware that the RF has sick people who would love to have Russia destroyed from within, so that it might eventually become something like a training academy for hell on earth that most western nations aspire to.
I've got a great idea!
How about all the mentally ill people in the RF move to the former U.S., and all the sane people stuck in the former U.S. move to the RF?
Thoughts?
Posted by: Robert Hope | May 21 2023 15:43 utc | 40
[36]
Friedrich was funded by England which subsidised its Proxies.
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 21 2023 15:47 utc | 41
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 21 2023 13:32 utc | 6
Thanks for mentioning that link, I would've missed it since there is so much to read and it is good for me to get a bit of a French view, their MSM is behing paywalls almost without exception, so I just marked that lady's blog to get a diferent view. Valid arguments she exposes, concerning the use of private armies inland and the wait and see aproach of the liberal elites, hopefully Prigozhin is more a patriot than a business man to counter the use of a PMC, time will tell. Thanks again.
Posted by: Paco | May 21 2023 15:48 utc | 42
@Sushi | May 21 2023 15:22 utc | 34
Excellent, high quality work. Please continue. I don't mind if you are wrong on some predictions when they are result of honest analysis.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 21 2023 15:49 utc | 43
@ Jonathan W | May 21 2023 15:23 utc
You can have all the funding in the world and still lose on the battlefield. Hmm, trying to think of recent examples… ;-)
Posted by: malenkov | May 21 2023 15:51 utc | 44
@ Sushi | May 21 2023 15:22 utc | 34
very good overview and projections sushi.. thanks.. i think you'd enjoy reading simplicius's latest post for some alternative possibilities.
Posted by: james | May 21 2023 15:51 utc | 45
Oops, my comment at 15:51 utc was in response to Paul Greenwood @ 15:47 utc.
Posted by: malenkov | May 21 2023 15:58 utc | 46
Zelensky says Bakhmut is not occupied, so who ya gonna believe, a mercenary or a Zionist fascist?
Russia now rules over yet another smoking pile of rubble, along with its military, economy and international reputation.
Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | May 21 2023 15:59 utc | 47
@ Arch Bungle | May 21 2023 15:38 utc | 38
If they're "all in", they only thing left that might change the game for NATO is an all out attack on Russia.
RF is capable of controlling the situation, so it doesn't spill everywhere around, even if NATO tries whatever they think that are capable of doing.
I think that's what Putin might have calculated in activating Perimetr.
It is a “just in case” move.
The fact is that NATO's strategic, operational, and tactical distinctions are close to a collapse and are blurring into a set of contingency indicators.
Frenzy, hysterical political meetings – G7, a mountain of trash thrown to Ukraine such as NATO's 80s and 90s technoweaponary indicate that this is happening, while failing to achieve any serious damage to RF.
Currently, NATO may not have an opportunity to manipulate those for surprise purposes.
RF knows that very well.
Posted by: whirlX | May 21 2023 16:01 utc | 48
Who blew up the Nord Stream pipeline?
A new investigation by NDR, WDR, Süddeutsche Zeitung and international media partners shows that there are apparently several new leads in the direction of Ukraine: https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/ndr-wdr/nordstream-andromeda-ukraine-russland-100.html
Posted by: Apollyon | May 21 2023 16:18 utc | 52
Mark2: I *was* being facetious, of course. There’s Vietnam too, and a certain country in Eastern Europe that’s been in the news lately…what’s it called again?…
Posted by: malenkov | May 21 2023 16:20 utc | 53
[45]
Indeed. Friedrich almost did. and was very lucky. He brought the Russian armies to Prussia but was saved Arbuthnot very last minute by death of the Tsar. This was the history that consoled Adolf in his bunker in 1945 thinking History was about to save him
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 21 2023 16:20 utc | 54
Posté par : Fnord73 | 21 mai 2023 16:00 UTC | 49
Now Kyiv militants, driven out of the city, are firing mortars, trying to hit the Russian flag over one of the high-rise buildings.
RIA news.
Posted by: la bouteille | May 21 2023 16:24 utc | 55
Let‘s polish my point 1762 and death of Elizabeth of Russia saved Friedrich and Prussia from Russian occupation
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 21 2023 16:27 utc | 56
We are getting it all wrong. WRONG! Ukraine is winning in Bakmuth. Says Ukrinform.net:
“We continue advancing on the flanks in the suburbs of Bakhmut and are actually close to tactically encircling the city. Thanks to this, we will be able to control all high-rise buildings seized by the enemy and gradually decimate them. This deprives the enemy of control over the approaches to the city and gives us certain tactical benefits,” [Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel General Oleksandr] Syrskyi noted.
...
“The situation is challenging but controlled,” Syrskyi added."
Should circumstances prevent Selensky and Zalushny from returning to office, equally qualified replacements are ready to replace them ...
Posted by: Marvin | May 21 2023 16:29 utc | 57
As Joseph Conrad (the great Pole) described copium in The Heart of Darkness:
"Their bearing, which was simply the bearing of commonplace individuals going about their business in the assurance of perfect safety, was offensive to me like the outrageous flauntings of folly in the face of a danger it is unable to comprehend. I had no particular desire to enlighten them, but I had some difficulty in restraining myself from laughing in their faces so full of stupid importance."
Posted by: Jonathan W | May 21 2023 16:31 utc | 58
@ Paul Greenwood | May 21 2023 16:27 utc
Pity Britain wasn’t much help to Maria Theresia. ;-)
Posted by: malenkov | May 21 2023 16:41 utc | 59
@59 dont know if "elizabeth of russia" is a reference to one of the english elizabeths but please do not confuse the queens involved. These were Elizabeth of Austria and Catherine (the great) of Russia.
Posted by: Orgel | May 21 2023 16:42 utc | 60
Zewensky: Admits Bakhmut captured by Wagner, but says Bakhmut is still under control in his mind and heart.
Posted by: unimperator | May 21 2023 16:43 utc | 61
@Jonathan W 61
Arming Ukranazistan at this point is equivalent to the French warship firing shells at random at the African continent.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | May 21 2023 16:43 utc | 62
@unimperator 64
Probably under Warshington's demands, Elensky's already walking that back.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | May 21 2023 16:46 utc | 64
@ la bouteille | May 21 2023 16:24 utc | 58
Now Kyiv militants, driven out of the city, are firing mortars, trying to hit the Russian flag over one of the high-rise buildings.
RIA news.
Yes, ammo galore for Ukraine from every available Peace Fund there is in the West.
And of course that Vagners and RF military are sitting idle, popping up the corks and not countering that at all.
Let us see what is going to be the result, say, 24 hours from now.
Posted by: whirlX | May 21 2023 16:47 utc | 65
@64 And the BBC will defiantly post the Zelensky version for as long as it takes.
Posted by: dh | May 21 2023 16:49 utc | 66
@ dh | May 21 2023 16:49 utc | 69
That’s not necessarily a bad thing. It changes nothing, after all, and who knows? Maybe someday the Brits will realize how little credibility the BBC has.
Posted by: malenkov | May 21 2023 16:53 utc | 67
Bakhmut liberated but Prigozhin still going at it, answering to Zelensky Prigozhin avers that there is not a single alive Ukrainian soldier left in Bakhmut since they stopped taking prisoners after a video was published of tortured wagnerites, one Ukrainian soldier dressed with female attire trying to escape was liquidated. Corpses galore all over town though.
Concerning his personal feud with Shoigu, a letter congratulating the defense minister on his birthday with a lot of sarcasm, even his son in law is in it.
All sound posts at Prigozhin's Cap TG.
Concerning the reasonable doubts of Karine Bechet-Golovko -highly recommended- of using PMC's within their country of origin and the liberal elite flourishing instead of disappering, seems that the head of the PMC is leading the struggle against bureaucracy and the entrenched elite.
Posted by: Paco | May 21 2023 17:04 utc | 69
BBC will defiantly post the Zelensky version for as long as it takes.
Posted by: dh | May 21 2023 16:49 utc | 69
---
As long as it takes? How long can the de-industrialized West sustain a cold war?
Posted by: too scents | May 21 2023 17:08 utc | 70
⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation
(21 May 2023)
Part I
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
◽️ In Kupyansk direction, aviation, artillery, and troops of the Zapad Group of Forces have engaged the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) close to Molchanovo, Zagoruikovka, and Tabayevka (Kharkov region).
💥 In addition, actions of five sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were thwarted near Sinkovka, Timkovka, Pershotravnevoye (Kharkov region), and Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People's Republic).
💥 Up to 85 Ukrainian troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery unit have been eliminated in this direction during the day.
◽ In Krasny Liman direction, Operational-Tactical and Army aviation and artillery of the Tsentr Group of Forces engaged the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Nevskoye, Chervonopopovka (Lugansk People's Republic), Yampolovka and Serebryanka (Donetsk People's Republic).
◽️ Actions of two sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been thwarted near Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People's Republic) and Grigorovka (Donetsk People's Republic).
💥 The enemy has suffered losses of over 60 Ukrainian troops, three armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer, and one D-20 howitzer in this direction in the past 24 hours.
💥 In addition, an ammunition depot of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was destroyed near Novoyegrovka (Lugansk People's Republic).
◽️ Artyomovsk has been completely liberated as a result of offensive actions by Wagner assault detachments supported by artillery and aviation of the Yug Group of Forces.
◽️ The Russian aviation have made six sorties in this area during the day. The Group's artillery have performed 69 firing missions.
💥 Aviation and artillery of the Yug Group of Forces have foiled enemy's attempts to counter-attack from the areas of Konstantinovka, Bogdanovka, and Krasnoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
💥 Moreover, a road bridge used by the Ukrainian troops to deliver reinforcements to Artyomovsk and an ammunition depot of the 60th Mechanised Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been neutralised close to Krasnoye.
◽️ Up to 100 Ukrainian troops and mercenaries, one tank, one infantry fighting vehicle, five pick-up trucks, one Polish-made Krab artillery system, and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery unit have been eliminated in this direction during the day.
💥 In addition, a US-made AN/TPQ-50 counterbattery radar station was destroyed near Kalinina (Donetsk People's Republic).
◽️ In Donetsk direction, artillery, aviation, and troops the Yug Group of Forces eliminated more than 120 Ukrainian troops, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, one U.S.-made M109 self-propelled artillery system, and D-20 and D-30 howitzers.
💥 An ammunition depot of the 67th Mechanised Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been hit close to Kramatorsk (Donetsk People's Republic).
Part II
◽️ In South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, units of the Vostok Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on the enemy in the areas of Ugledar (Donetsk People's Republic), Novodanilovka, Chervonoye, Novodarovka, and Nesteryanka (Zaporozhye region).
◽️ Three sabotage and reconnaissance groups were also disabled close to Sladkoye, Vladimirovka (Donetsk People's Republic), and Levadnoye (Zaporozhye region).
💥 The enemy's losses in this direction during the day amounted to up to 50 Ukrainian troops, one infantry fighting vehicle, two motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, and one Msta-B howitzer.
💥 An ammunition depot of the 102nd Territorial Defence Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been obliterated close to Gulyapole (Zaporozhye region).
◽️ In Kherson direction, up to 15 Ukrainian troops, six motor vehicles, and one Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer have been destroyed over the past 24 hours.
💥 An ammunition depot of the 123th Territorial Defence Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been obliterated close to Stanislav (Kherson region).
💥 Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, and artillery of the Russian Group of Forces have engaged 103 AFU artillery units, manpower and hardware in 134 areas during the day.
💥 A Ukrainian S-300 surface-to-air missile system has been obliterated near Zheltoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
💥 A command post of the 102nd Territorial Defence Brigade has been hit near Poltavka (Zaporozhye region).
◽️ Air defence forces have intercepted fifteen HIMARS, Uragan MLRS projectiles, and Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles during the day.
💥 In addition, nine Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were obliterated in the areas of Lozovoye, Terny, Vodyanoye, Novoandreyevka (Donetsk People's Republic), Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People's Republic), and Energodar (Zaporozhye region).
📊 In total, 428 airplanes and 234 helicopters, 4,245 unmanned aerial vehicles, 424 anti-aircraft missile systems, 9,251 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,100 combat vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems, 4,871 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 10,365 units of special military hardware have been destroyed during the special military operation.
Posted by: rumod report | May 21 2023 17:09 utc | 71
A Spanish blogger estimates that the total Ukrainian casualties in the Battle of Bakhmut are 100,000 dead and wounded.
The Battle for Artemovsk (III) – Final and results“For the third month, the meat grinder in Bakhmut has been turning Ukrainian army brigades into bloody wreckage. From February to mid-April, during continuous fighting, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost about 80% of the controlled area of the city and up to 30,000 soldiers."
Ukrainian forces engaged in battle: 80,000 men
Inside the city proper: 14,000 soldiers being continually reinforced
"As of April 16-17, the Ukrainian Armed Forces control the last three residential districts in the west of the city and suffer an average of 450 casualties per day"
"In total, at least 60 brigades with more than 160 battalions are participating in the battle for the city . At the beginning of April, they had approximately 280-300 tanks, around 1,200 infantry fighting vehicles and armored vehicles, up to 300 field artillery pieces, and around 93 multiple rocket launcher units at their disposal.
CONCLUSIONS :
In total, considering all the reports and partial counts, and many coming from Western sources, one could conservatively estimate from August to May on this front more than 100,000 Ukrainian losses between killed, wounded and prisoners and just under a thousand armored vehicles of all kinds, including 150-200 tanks.
Total losses so far in the war
Cassad cites the wartears.org site, which gives a figure of 265,000 deaths, which would confirm Senator Robert Kennedy's statement that "three hundred thousand Ukrainians" have died.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 21 2023 17:10 utc | 72
Two m777s destroyed yesterday. Any tally of how many destroyed vs how many sent according to RFMOD?
Posted by: UWDude | May 21 2023 17:12 utc | 73
Sushi | May 21 2023 15:22 utc | 34
This isn't a country, it's a zombie. The task seems to be set by US for ukromorons to hit any target they can and as many civilians as possible, forever. US demanded today strikes on Crimea, check the news. Mariupol started to be hit again. nato won't let ukros stop even if they wanted to, there are multiple levels of hostages there. I'm sure one of the reasons for the EU bases for Ukr is in case the current proxy quits or dies, to take over any local government that may try to exist. I can already see the news on CNN: "the real Ukr army is that one, and they will invade liberate their country from the fake Ukr army and the RF army. Beautiful freedom bombs fall! Look at them fly!" (the "beautiful missiles fly" part is from real CNN news)
Posted by: rk | May 21 2023 17:17 utc | 74
As long as it takes? How long can the de-industrialized West sustain a cold war?
Posted by: too scents | May 21 2023 17:08 utc | 73
Actually that expression that they love to use 'as long as it takes' is quite vague. As long as what takes? How long is long? Who decides it's gone on long enough?
Posted by: dh | May 21 2023 17:22 utc | 75
Who decides it's gone on long enough?
Posted by: dh | May 21 2023 17:22 utc | 78
---
"As long as it takes" reflects the reckless optimism that sufficient resources are at hand to achieve the task.
Posted by: too scents | May 21 2023 17:30 utc | 76
@ Tom_Q_Collins | May 21 2023 13:32 utc | 6
@ JustAMaverick | May 21 2023 13:41 utc | 8
Many many people in the RF _no_ doubt have vivid personal memories of what being colonized by the American Empire under Gorbachev and Yeltsin was like.
(Of course, it was happy days and "mad money" for the Imperialists, the "globalists" and "financialists" and their compradors.)
Posted by: John Kennard | May 21 2023 17:33 utc | 77
Posted by: Lazar | May 21 2023 14:04 utc | 15
Yes - the Grand Strategy of Washington since 1990 has been to sow as much chaos in Europe as possible. The War to Destroy Yugoslavia, Brexit, The Ukraine 2014. etc. , etc. is all about keeping Europe as chaotic as possible.
Posted by: Exile | May 21 2023 17:34 utc | 78
sushi@34
thank you for your reply, always your depth matches your galactic overview. each flutter by of a wing can alter the air we collectively breathe & enlighten our dawning, thank you.
Posted by: emersonreturn | May 21 2023 17:50 utc | 79
With Zelensky's plane currently flying very close to RF airspace between RF and Alaska, perhaps the biggest boon for all would be an attempt by RF Aerospace forces to snatch the bastard right there.
EW messing wiht GPS, redirecting the plane into Russia's airspace, escorting it to the nearest airport and get him handcuffed right there.
That would end the destruction, save many lives, and I bet nobody from the West would move a finger to prevent it.
It is not a far-fetched thought.
Sometimes history can or should be written in a real-time.
But I think RF needs Zelensky roaming free more than having him contained.
What the bar thinks?
Posted by: whirlX | May 21 2023 17:54 utc | 80
@Orgel #63:
@59 dont know if "elizabeth of russia" is a reference to one of the english elizabeths but please do not confuse the queens involved. These were Elizabeth of Austria and Catherine (the great) of Russia.
How hard can it be to search for an unfamiliar (to you) historical figure before attempting to “correct” another commenter? All you had to do was google “Elizabeth of Russia” and get this as the first result: Elizabeth of Russia. It was indeed the death of Elizabeth and the accession of Peter III to the throne that saved Frederick II.
Posted by: S | May 21 2023 17:55 utc | 81
Posted by: whirlX | May 21 2023 15:10 utc | 32
Posted by: whirlX | May 21 2023 15:23 utc | 35
Thank you, whirlX! You're one of my must read posters on this site.
Posted by: Boo | May 21 2023 17:59 utc | 82
So much for "we kill them overseas so we don't have to kill them here." It seems that gun violence is contagious.Posted by: Don Bacon | May 21 2023 14:26 utc | 21
I seem to remember in the decade or so after 9-11 when the US was going full tilt after "Muslim Extremist terrorists", reading a report and accompanying data that in at least one particular year toddlers (yes toddlers !!) had killed and injured more people with firearms than the so called terrorists.
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | May 21 2023 18:00 utc | 83
Posted by: whirlX | May 21 2023 17:54 utc | 83
Why deal with the puppet Shekelsky who is not long for this world? No clear benefit for Russia, IMO.
Posted by: Boo | May 21 2023 18:01 utc | 84
While waiting for Valerij Z to be found,
MSM tells us that Ukrops are surrounding Artiomovsk.
RF fall in the trap!
Omg... not even 1 day and RF are being surrounded! XD
Posted by: Erik | May 21 2023 18:05 utc | 85
@ Boo | May 21 2023 18:01 utc | 87
He is the only thread that connects various dots that run the war against the RF. There is no person B.
In doing so, he actually helps RF to keep up the highly valued narrative in the Multipolar part of the planet.
Zelensky helps RF to uncover how West runs affairs.
He is active mobile phone in an ISR cloud.
Highly valuable data trove there.
Posted by: whirlX | May 21 2023 18:10 utc | 86
Interesting talk by Arestovich the other day. One gets the impression he is positioning himself or being positioned to assume a more sane and reasonable role at the Kiev side of the table when the time comes for talks than the other potentials in the junta side; that he is perhaps someone whom Moscow could be willing to deal with (notwithstanding his earlier Z mouthpiece role). Lately since he fell out of favour in Kiev he has been keeping his hands rather clean.
Posted by: petra | May 21 2023 18:10 utc | 87
Re Serbia/Yugoslavia
All that appears at MoA that I have ever read regarding Serbia and Kosovo, and the events in former Yugoslavia, is nonsense. The people writing about that have no knowledge whatsoever about Serbia, or Kosovo or the former Yugoslavia. It's sad, and bad.
Posted by: JB | May 21 2023 18:11 utc | 88
Posted by: whirlX, various posts.
You have a more pro-Russian view than the Russians on their TV shows.
Posted by: Rep2 | May 21 2023 18:32 utc | 89
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 21 2023 14:38 utc | 24
Are the NATO capos that crazy??? INDY
<=.corporate Oligarch owned media is in control of western minds, nothing is allowed to enter western minds short of total extermination of the Russian will and capacity to remain independent? At some point I expect to See China, Saudi Arabia, Iran wade into the conflict.. Brazil might join.. things are fast approaching wwIII, IMO.
Posted by: snake | May 21 2023 18:41 utc | 90
Prigozhin answered Zelensky about the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Bakhmut: there are a lot of their corpses here, one tried to escape in a woman's dress.
The last one (VSUshnik) ran across the road an hour and a half ago in a woman's dress.
They shot, we take no prisoners.
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/45489
Posted by: la bouteille | May 21 2023 18:41 utc | 91
@ JB | May 21 2023 18:11 utc | 91
Brief us on the main points everyone gets wrong, please.
Posted by: John Kennard | May 21 2023 18:41 utc | 92
Re: as-long-as-it-takes
Translation to the last Ukrainian
Re: the Russians must leave Ukraine
Translation we want to ethnically cleanse 10 million people
Posted by: Exile | May 21 2023 18:44 utc | 93
> Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 21 2023 13:20 utc | 4
I have slowly come to concur with Tom_Q_Collins @ 6 & 17
This is what the neocons gamble on:
https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/russias-elites-are-suffering-from
The ratcheting up of the escalation ladder continues until we see a very harsh Russian response or China intervening on Russia's side. And even then it might already be too late.
Posted by: Pudding | May 21 2023 18:52 utc | 94
Dr. George W Oprisko @ 24
Yesterday, in his speech congratulating Prigozhin and Wagner on their victory over the Ukies with the taking of Artemovsk, President Putin announced that he activated the "PERIMETER" system.
Pretty big deal. Any link to this speech?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 21 2023 18:54 utc | 95
To anyone who has the transcript of Putin's speech congratulating Wagner on taking Bakhmut, or the video, can you link where it says Putin activated the "Perimeter" system? I'm not doubting, but my Google-fu is failing me at the moment.
Posted by: David | May 21 2023 18:56 utc | 96
Posted by: Rep2 | May 21 2023 18:32 utc | 92
That's because a lot of the TV in Russia was dominated by the libertards and actual Russian patriots were not promoted; confer with Martyanov bitching about the presence of many soft degree "experts" promoting the idiotic western narratives.
Posted by: Boo | May 21 2023 19:00 utc | 97
petra @ 90
Interesting talk by Arestovich the other day.
What Arestovich is up to or coming from confuses me even more than what Elon Musk is up to or coming from. Maybe that's part of their five dimensional mind fuck. They think they are building a big, beautiful, complex artifice, the thing is you can knock it over with a feather - just ignore it.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 21 2023 19:01 utc | 98
David no. 98
Apparently it is permanently active:
"Dead Hand, also known as Perimeter, is a Cold War-era automatic nuclear weapons-control system that was constructed by the Soviet Union. The system remains in use in the post-Soviet Russian Federation. An example of fail-deadly and mutual assured destruction deterrence, it can automatically initiate the launch of the Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles by sending a pre-entered highest-authority order from the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Strategic Missile Force Management to command posts and individual silos if a nuclear strike is detected by seismic, light, radioactivity, and pressure sensors even with the commanding elements fully destroyed. By most accounts, it is normally switched off and is supposed to be activated during times of crisis; however, as of 2009, it was said to remain fully functional and able to serve its purpose when needed.Wikipedia"
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | May 21 2023 19:02 utc | 99
Sushi | May 21 2023 15:22 utc | 34
Thanks for that.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 21 2023 19:08 utc | 100
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https://johnhelmer.net/bravado-before-capitulation-will-russian-defeat-of-us-patriot-missile-be-followed-by-ukrainian-f-16-attack-during-the-nato-air-defender-23/
John Helmer weighs in on the F-16s.
Posted by: FVK | May 21 2023 12:54 utc | 1