paveway.. come back, lol…

Posted by: james | May 18 2023 16:10 utc | 3

@ 5 karlof1… thanks… one has to love lavrov for this clarity and forthrightness..

Posted by: james | May 18 2023 16:16 utc | 5

Ukrainian officials admit that the Western lobby is putting pressure on the Ukrainian authorities in the case of an early wide offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We’ve talked about this many times before.
So the Head of the Mission of Ukraine to NATO Galibarenko said:
“We are now saying to international partners: be patient, do not push too hard. Now it is more important to think about what else can be done to make this counteroffensive successful.”
All our sources have previously insided that Zelensky negotiated a pause of 1-2 months, then it will be more and more difficult to delay the offensive, since there will be no reasons for increasing military assistance (unless there is a “mega tragedy” “accidentally” in Ukraine, in which the Russians are blamed), The British are interested in this.
It is worth pointing out that Ze made a mistake and spent a lot of effort in the Bakhmut meat grinder, which actually thwarted the spring offensive. At the same time, Western lobbies through the media often “give” Ze and office hints that if they do not fulfill the agreement, they will be “merged” and made more “scapegoats” of this war.

https://t.me/legitimniy/15380

Posted by: Down South | May 18 2023 16:18 utc | 7

Norwegian | May 18 2023 16:16 utc | 8
Fear of a coup would explain a lot. I think Zelenskyy senses something involving Zaluzhnyi and he won’t return home until he believes it has been dealt with.

Posted by: Featherless | May 18 2023 16:29 utc | 9

Hungary today called Ukr a threat to their sovereignty. This is related to threats from Ukr to explode the oil pipeline that goes into Hungary and other countries.

Posted by: rk | May 18 2023 16:40 utc | 11

I’m thinking, that perhaps, regardless of all stories, planted or not, that the US in some manner, perhaps even aggressively, used the Patriot Battery to track, and display, and or, fire on and destroy the RF MOD air assets…….I have read, anyone know??, that the Russian plane and helicopter were returning from their mission….they do carry flaring to distract incoming SAMs, but returning they’d likely have used it up during their attack…..
RF MOD acknowledged one plane one helo, not the two and two, are the MOD still claiming just two????
My money is on an ambush using Patriot in one form or another to direct the attack.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 18 2023 16:54 utc | 13

Never let it be said that the doddering fools in the EU and US don’t succeed in supporting the economy.
Thanks to the Goebbels-like grip they have on the press, they created a wide open playing field for the likes of Mercouris, Military Summary, Weeb Union, Defense Politics Asia, and many other independent bloggers and YouTubers.
By ceding the ground of neutral, unbiased reporting to these Internet sensations, they scored two “own goals”
1. Destroyed CNN and other mainline media business models.
2. Empowered a lot of folks to gain new income streams.
Well done, western press stooges!

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 18 2023 17:15 utc | 15

Worth mentioning if it hasn’t been already: America is playing up the factor of Ukrainians being responsible for the failure of the Patriot missiles!
Quite obviously with the intention of making it clear that the Patriot system couldn’t have proved to be inadequate.
CNN has fallen silent on the event, but could feel the need to use the excuse too!

Posted by: Up North | May 18 2023 17:33 utc | 17

>Fear of a coup would explain a lot. I think Zelenskyy senses something involving Zaluzhnyi and he won’t return home until he believes it has been dealt with.
Posted by: Featherless | May 18 2023 16:29 utc | 12
This is my sense as well. I believe simplicius76 might have floated that he’s under ‘house arrest’ until an apparent coup attempt is cleared up. Although Rolo’s Slavland Chronicles see him either dead or disfavoured.
>Disfavored and ducking out of meetings with his bosses or dead – those seem like the two sensible explanations to me. Also, because Zaluzhny does not have an Israeli passport like most Ukrainian politicians do, I could indeed see a scenario where the Kremlin felt comfortable taking him out.

Posted by: Pudding | May 18 2023 17:43 utc | 19

Did anyone heard of any attack with “storm” shadows today?

Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 17:47 utc | 21

“The Pentagon overvalued US equipment it sent to Ukraine by about $3bn, a Senate aide and a defence official said on Thursday, an error that opened up the possibility of more weapons being sent to Kyiv for its defence against Russian forces.
The error was the result assigning a higher than warranted value on weaponry that was taken from US stocks and then shipped to Ukraine, two senior defence officials said.
“We’ve discovered inconsistencies in how we value the equipment that we’ve given” to Ukraine, one of the senior defence officials told Reuters.”
WTF?

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | May 18 2023 17:52 utc | 23

Posted by: bored | May 18 2023 17:44 utc | 37
The Russian flank continues to crumble? WTH are they doing there? Oh well, looks like another month or so in Bahkmut.
Perhaps Prigozhin is sandbagging Bahkmut because it has been so lucrative for him. This is what happens when you rely too heavily upon mercenaries.

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | May 18 2023 17:56 utc | 25

@ paddy | May 18 2023 17:58 utc | 45
—
The USA follows a fragile doctrine. Move fast and break things. There is a sucker born every minute.

Posted by: too scents | May 18 2023 18:11 utc | 27

Posted by: bored | May 18 2023 17:44 utc | 37
The city itself is almost taken, Prigozhin complains about the MD not holding on to the flanks, that would’ve allowed Wagner to encircle the remaining Ukrainian troops which most likely will fall back to Chasov Yar.
Posted by: Paco | May 18 2023 17:52 utc | 41
Do consider that Prigozhin takes some troop losses and could be using the MD as responsible for not holding their own.
As opposed to accepting his responsibility for not coming out of the battle completely unscathed.
Would that be propaganda or would it be something a little closer to the truth? He certainly has gained a reputation for screaming obscenities and perhaps transferring the blame for troop losses! That could be the very nature of the professional mercenary’s war news released to the public?

Posted by: Up North | May 18 2023 18:15 utc | 29

@ bored | May 18 2023 17:44 utc | 21
re: . . . WTH are they doing there? Oh well, looks like another month or so in Bahkmut.
It took the mighty US Army four years to pacify Baghdad, and that was against partisans not an army.

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 18 2023 18:18 utc | 31

It’s really instructive to look at what the MSM is reporting, vice what the echo chamber (here, McGregor, Ritter, pro/”neutral” daily YT reports like Weeb Union) reports. I am absolutely not saying MSM are 100% accurate, don’t shade things, ghost of Kiev, etc. But there’s a real danger of the opposite if you only consume content that says what you want it to say. Like “Russians aren’t capturing Bakhmut on purpose since it is a meat grinder”, which makes about zero sense in terms of offensive city warfare (defender favored).
I saw a meme recently that had a cartoon of someone doing a computer search for YT content that only says what I want to believe. I wish I could find it…was such a perfect gif for those who only embrace news that says what they want to happen vice what did happen.
For example, every now and then take a look at a Google search for Bakhmut, with the last 24 hours filter. It is almost entirely on the Ukrainians outperforming on the flank attacks and Russia issues like the Prigoshin (sp?) ammo squabbles.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-forces-retreat-near-bakhmut-ukraine-wagner-say-2023-05-18/
Sure, they may be biased. But you ignore other views to your own danger. Remember Macgregor saying the Russians would roll over Kiev in MAR2022? Even if the MSM has a bias, I’ll know Russia is really at a Bakhmut victory when it gets reported by the “other side”, which is basically when they actually take the town. It has been over a half a year since the battle started and our side said it’s about to fall.
This is one reason, I check in here…to get both sides. If anything I’m probably a bit more on “your side”, but I will never be a hopium consumer. That’s for Hannity audience and the like. Not for thinking amateur analysts interested in ground truth regardless of which side benefits.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 18 2023 18:22 utc | 33

Bachmut “holds”, but not the last Domino
⚔️🇺🇦 The situation in Bakhmut by the end of May 18
▪️ Assault units of the Wagner PMCs have completely taken control of the Domino( «Домино») fortified area;
▪️ The private sector is being cleaned up along Tchaikovsky(Чайковского) Street;
▪️ Fighting continues in the “Airplane”(«Самолет») area
Our sappers are working very carefully. As it already happened, partially surviving houses in newly liberated areas can be mined.

Posted by: La Bastille | May 18 2023 18:28 utc | 35

“Dagger” is visible to radar for only about 5 seconds.
I derive this result below using the technical information provided by
Simplicius, and then solving the resulting first-order differential
equation. This is substantially shorter than Simplicius’s own
qualitative estimate “20-30 seconds at most”.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-mim-104-patriot-destruction?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Simplicius shows that hypersonic vehicles cannot survive for long near
sea level without special cladding, which may or may not have been
invented, but anyway is not used on Dagger. Rather, they slow from
hypersonic to supersonic speeds from atmospheric friction.
Dagger slows from v_init (~ Mach 10) to v_final (~ Mach 2-4) as it
descends from its peak (i.e., initial height, h_init ~ 50 km) to h=0.
For those not interested in differential equations, the simple
physical argument is that about 2/3 of the atmosphere is within one
scale height (H = 8 km). Hence, if the atmosphere is going to provide
sufficient drag to bring Dagger below hypersonic (h_hyper = Mach 5),
but not so much as to make it subsonic by the time it reaches the
ground, it must do so within about 1 scale height.
When the velocity falls below hypersonic (Mach 5), Dagger loses its
“plasma cocoon”, and so becomes visible to radar. Because this occurs
within about 8 km, and the average speed during this final descent is
conservatively at least Mach 3.5, the time of radar visibility is <~ 5 seconds. Below, I derive a formula for the height, h_hyper, at which the Dagger falls below v_hyper = Mach 5: h_hyper = H*ln[ln(v_init/v_final)/ln(v_init/v_hyper)] Before giving this derivation, I give a few worked examples in the Table below. For final flight time, t_visible, I just adopt v_average = (v_hyper + v_final)/2. v_initial v_final v_average h_hyper t_visible (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (km) (seconds) 3430 1372 1543 2.2 1.4 3430 1029 1372 4.4 3.2 3430 686 1200 6.7 5.6 So, the estimate does vary depending on the unknown final velocity, but the key point is that for any reasonable numbers, the Dagger goes below hypersonic within about a scale height, after which it is quickly reaches the ground. The values in the table are multiples of the speed of sound at sea level (343 m/s), but I have refrained from calling them "Mach" because this designation strictly applies to the local speed of sound. The derivation of the formula is straightforward, but involves some calculus. As the Dagger is traveling downward at speed v, it is slowed by the atmosphere and sped up by gravity, dv/dt = -K * v^2 * rho(h)/rho(0) + g where rho(h) is the density of the atmosphere at h, rho(0) is the density at h=0, g=9.8 m/s^2 is the strength of the Earth's gravity, and K is a constant that depends on the mass and geometry of the Dagger. The form of this formula derives from momentum conservation: the Dagger imparts momentum to the atmosphere in proportion to rate at which it hits particles and to its own velocity. But the rate at which it hits particles is proportional to the density of particles times its own speed. I adopt an atmospheric profile rho(h)/rho(0) = exp(-h/H) where H = 8 km is the scale height of the atmosphere. Using the chain rule and the fact that v = -dh/dt, this yields dv/dh = K * v * exp(-h/H) + -g/v I will show below that the first term dominates, i.e., in the regime where the slow down is concentrated, the gravity term is very small. Hence I will ignore it. This yields d(ln v)/dh = K*exp(-h/H) or ln v = C - K*H * exp(-h/H) This yields two equation and two unknown (C and K), ln v_final = C - K*H ln v_init = C - K*H*exp(-h_init/H) -> C
where I have assumed that exp(-h_init/H) is extremely small.
One easily then finds
K = ln(v_init/v_final)/H
C = ln(v_init)
and hence
ln(v/v_init) = (ln(v_final/v_init)*exp(-h/H)
Thus, solving for h_hyper (i.e., when v=v_hyper = Mach 5)
h_hyper = H*ln[ln(v_init/v_final)/ln(v_init/v_hyper)]
This formula gives characteristic times of a few seconds, during
which gravity would change the speed by (few second)*10 m/s^2, i.e.,
a few 10s of m/s, which is small compared to the speed of sound
and hence can be ignored at first order.

Posted by: Cindy Martin | May 18 2023 18:33 utc | 37

“For example, every now and then take a look at a Google search for Bakhmut, with the last 24 hours filter. It is almost entirely on the Ukrainians outperforming on the flank attacks and Russia issues like the Prigoshin (sp?) ammo squabbles.”
WOW!!
A search on Google will show 99% pro western war narratives!
Who woulda thought!!
Amazing stuff. Thanks for opening our eyes.
LoL

Posted by: Comandante | May 18 2023 18:37 utc | 39

It looks like not only the US Patriot AA system, other “donated” foreign AA systems were destroyed on the 16th night (17th morning). Also, lot of foreign shells, missiles and whatnot had been destroyed (today in the morning). We’ve not been hearing of “storm’ shadows lately, have we?
There’d be more hits today night in other “hiding” places in the Ukraine too.

Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 18:38 utc | 41

Yes, as above. Where is the next meatgrinder(s) of UKR forces? Is it possible to position another site to achieve 30,000 KIA?
There are so many variables up in the ether at this time, where is Zaluzhny, Syrsky or is one or the other dead, both?? How long can Zel gallivant around and how does he keep his supply of coke up to “snuff”? Well, Mark, hurry up and wait.

Posted by: paxmark1 | May 18 2023 18:49 utc | 43

The Russian Army was no unstoppable force as I initially thought but it has miraculously carried the day so far. At great cost. It has reinvented itself on the run and has had to do so at times in the glare of some very pointed and harsh criticism.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 18 2023 10:58 utc | 246
Dear Uncle:
Your post contains points critical to understanding the current conflict.
RF commenced the SMO with a relatively small force fighting the largest army in Europe, an army benefiting from 8 years of NATO training (Canada had its trainers at work in 404 before the blood had been washed from Maidan Nezalezhnosti, the Independence Square)
Helmuth von Moltke, chief of the Prussian General Staff and the man responsible for Germany’s victory in the 1870–71 Franco-Prussian war, when compared with Napoleon and Frederick the Great, declined the honour, “for I have never conducted a retreat, the trickiest of all military manoeuvres.” The RF completed two of these “trickiest of all military manoeuvres.” The first was the retreat from Kherson which extricated not only the complete RF military force but the bulk of the civilian population as well. In the simultaneous retreat from Kharkov RF light infantry successfully retrograded in the face of a UAF force superior in both size and equipment.
As you accurately point out the RF has “re-invented itself on the run.” My understanding is that they found the Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) ineffective and have moved toward a reinvigorated divisional structure which combines a range of resources such as AD, EW, and ISR drone forces along with a normal complement of arty, armour, and infantry.
What has gone largely unremarked is that for the past six months all of the RF advances have primarily been achieved by Wagner which is a light infantry force. This begs the question of what will occur when the re-invented RF “heavy division(s)” finally take to the field.
I believe the following are accurate statements:
1) Wagner was used to provide a respite to permit the RF to reconstruct itself in a form better suited to the present conflict. Despite being light infantry the Orchestra has defeated some of the best UAF units.
2) Wagner “theatrics” served a purpose in that they focused attention on Wagner (seen any news about RF regular forces? About re-equipping and re-training?), gave the impression of conflict and incompetence within the RF senior ranks (maskirovka to cause the West to under-estimate the opponent and believe NATOstan stood on the verge of victory).
3) Since confirmation bias assisted NATOstan in the belief they were poised for victory, NATOstan declined to undertake direct involvement in the conflict. In essence the NATOstan response created a “breathing space” one that permitted RF to reconstruct its forces, increase its military production, deliver protracted combined arms training to both new inductees and to its officer ranks, while generating both the force structure and the logistics stocks required for the next phase.
4) I believe the recent defeat of the Patriot battery is a significant inflection point in this conflict. Whether they admit to it or not, the senior NATOstan decision makers must confront the fact RF has demonstrated the capability to neuter the most advanced weapons NATOstan can supply. NATOstan leaders are now thinking “We will not see the approaching Dagger. We will only know it has arrived when Big Ben collapses, our armaments factories crumble, our LNG ports become fireballs, and our fleets sink to the bottom of our harbours”
5) It is likely NATOstan will soon seek a peace settlement. RF will respond they can find no one with whom any such settlement can be negotiated. NATOstan ignores the UN Charter, it ignores the provisions of the NATO Charter, it participated in the Minsk Accords under false premises, it has advocated the overthrow and destruction of Russia, it has expressed no problems with statements of genocidal intent such as the killing of all Russians wherever they may be found. Russia is likely to state it will only enter peace negotiations once an independent non-aligned group of states investigates and pronounces on the MH-17 incident, the Nord Stream destruction, the Skripal Affair, The Bucha war crime, the Odessa Massacre, the US involvement in the Maidan killings, the US overthrow of a democratically elected Ukrainian government, the West’s failure to uphold past commitments made with regard to NATO expansion, NATOstan’s encroachment on the Russo-Finnish border, the NATOstan rejection of repeatedly voiced RF concerns regarding Russian security interests, the voiced Western intent to expand NATO to the Asia Pacific, the fact of America provoking military aggression against a civilization which has not attacked outside its own borders in over 2,000 years, the endless promotion of colour revolution, civil repression, and military aggression of grave concern to Russia, the BRICS, and a Global South repeatedly raped by a West which now suddenly proposes peace?
Stay safe.
Cheers.

Posted by: Sushi | May 18 2023 18:53 utc | 45

Zaluzhnyi has sponsors somewhere and he will appear when Zelensky is no longer needed for the next phase of the game.

Posted by: viktor sashnikov | May 18 2023 18:55 utc | 47

“Had Russia actually decided to go to war in March 22, it’s speculated that the Ukraine side would have ceased to exist within a month or two.”
Bad decision. “If you grasp a nettle, do it firmly.” https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/grasp-the-nettle.html
Going slow has cost a lot of Russian lives. And arguably Ukranian lives. And allowed time for the West/Ukraine to respond. I mean why even go for Kiev, if not serious? Had to abandon a shit ton of equipment. What a waste. And they ended up switching tactics and going to artillery battles in the end.
It’s not like the Ukranians love them because the Russians had a weak initial attack. It’s better to be feared than loved. Moronic decision by the Russians. And sort of implies all kinds of corruption issues within their force structure. As well as Putin’s hearing what he wants to hear versus ground truth. Add onto that the difference in will involved in “fighting to stop an invader” versus “doing a special military operation”

Posted by: Anonymous | May 18 2023 18:59 utc | 49

This formula gives characteristic times of a few seconds, during
which gravity would change the speed by (few second)*10 m/s^2, i.e.,
a few 10s of m/s, which is small compared to the speed of sound
and hence can be ignored at first order.
Posted by: Cindy Martin | May 18 2023 18:33 utc | 39
.
.
Hey, get in touch with the Russians’ development department…they’re looking for people like you
…. to clean….
.
Rarely seen such rubbish….. THE Americans are looking for the solution and you are sitting around here!

Posted by: mo3.1 | May 18 2023 19:00 utc | 51

Cindy Martin | May 18 2023 18:33 utc | 39–
Thanks much for the work you did and the time it took to present it!! Even if the time exposure to radar was 20 seconds, that’s almost no time to develop a firing solution for any sort of weapon. I got to thinking about that when I read that part of his report. IMO, the only recourse is to put up a wall of bullets–but in what direction?!? And of course, all those bullets must fall to earth somewhere. Since the plasma cloud creates a “sink” absorbing radar emissions, might the sink be detectable and thus inform the operators of an incoming hypersonic? Russia must have some means of tracking them since they know where it’s going so they can look at its trail. After all, Russia knows it won’t have a monopoly on such weapons forever.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 18 2023 19:04 utc | 53

@46 The message that could be taken is that the US has done it before without an actual need and may do it again. Your point about Russia’s ability to respond in kind is very valid, but this is the US we’re talking about. Being rational is just a guideline.
Posted by: chunga | May 18 2023 18:59 utc | 53
The US doing it with nukes without a need is one of the theories.
I prefer the theory that had the US not ended the war with Japan, the Russians would have and would likely still be there.
And I don’t pay much attention to the theory that there would have been too much allied loss of lives had they invaded.
It’s always good to speculate, but we need to keep in mind that Americans appreciate the glass parking lot theory every bit as much as Russians.

Posted by: Up North | May 18 2023 19:11 utc | 55

Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2023 18:33 utc | 40
Having digested the latest videos from WeebUnion, and Military Summary, I see a potential for a rout of the UAF flank attack to the south of Bakhmut.
With the last supply road north to Chasiv-Yar cut, any remnants being driven out of the city will have to use the southern road. That allows for a scenario where Wagner could chase them into the open, destroy them with artillery, then sweep southward and attack the other elements of the UAF now threatening the southern flank from the rear.
Destroy, and encircle.
Essentially killing the counter-attacks. No idea how realistic a scenario this is, but by losing Bakhmut it appears there really isn’t a good outcome for the UAF as long as RF stays aggressive.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 18 2023 19:13 utc | 57

It is past 10 p.m. in Ukraine and it is quite silent now…too silent…

Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 19:20 utc | 59

@ostro #63
Sound of Silence is ominous …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAEppFUWLfc

Posted by: Don Firineach | May 18 2023 19:31 utc | 61

The Koked-out Kowboy using the Chinese as a human shield!

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 18 2023 19:33 utc | 63

Oops, I messed up the link I just provided. Please remove the word Here at the end of the link.

Posted by: Firefly | May 18 2023 19:35 utc | 65

If NATO were a defensive alliance it would recognize the one waged by Russia for what it is. The only frozen conflict is the one in the heads of those commentators who are measuring Russian successes or failures as if it were waging the offensive war that NATO says it is. And now a news flash: the MSM has ceased to do news flashes. Rather, its main task is to do elevator speeches for the military-industrial complex, which is taking over the “collective west” country by country. This it wouldn’t be able to do without the MSM.

Posted by: Jonathan W | May 18 2023 19:39 utc | 67

Posted by: mo3.1 | May 18 2023 16:27 utc | 9
—————————————————
Zelensky is back in Kiev and meeting with someone from China, as I understand it, he spoke with Xi Jinping by phone, or at least someone representing Xi about “peace” proposal. Just heard the news this morning.

Posted by: Ed | May 18 2023 19:43 utc | 69

Southfront – last buildings of defense of the UAF in Bakhmut “Domino” taken by Wagner:
https://southfront.org/breaking-wagner-took-control-of-domino-district-in-bakhmut/

The remaining units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were escaping from the area in recent days, leaving their strongholds mostly at night. Ukrainian servicemen are leaving their weapons, running from the city on foot, climbing on a hill located through the forest area on the outskirts. Their retreat is not coordinated. Some Ukrainian servicemen run to Ivanovskoye (Krasnoe) through the ruins of the farm, others go to Chasov Yar.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 18 2023 19:45 utc | 71

Assault units of the PMC “Wagner” completely took control of the fortified area “Domino” in Artemovsk.
The last fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the city was cleared. Now it needs to be cleared of mines and carefully examined, since small groups of Ukrainian military may still remain inside.
Fighting is currently taking place in the aircraft sector and in the private sector on the street. Tchaikovsky.
After taking Domino, it remains to solve the problem with the remnants of the armed forces of Ukraine in the south-west and close the flanks. The history of defending Artemovsk (Bakhmut) for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is coming to an end.

Posted by: mo3.1 | May 18 2023 19:50 utc | 73

“…After all, Russia knows it won’t have a monopoly on such weapons forever.”
Posted by: karlof1 | May 18 2023 19:04 utc | 56
———————————————————
I am not so sure that Russia has a monopoly on hypersonic weapons. First, I think China has it (perhaps with Russia’s help) but i think the US is bluffing when they claim that their efforts to create on failed. Perhaps they just don’t see the need to advertise and would rather maintain the element of surprise.

Posted by: Ed | May 18 2023 19:54 utc | 75

Up North | May 18 2023 19:38 utc | 71
Joe should jump on the Korea Solution before Donald claims it.

Posted by: dh | May 18 2023 19:56 utc | 77

Cindy Martin | May 18 2023 18:33 utc | 39
What is the point of making a missile hypersonic, if that speed is consumed during the final approach, and the impact is only at Mach 2-4? And all the energy between Mach 12 and Mach 2-4 goes to waste? Previously, we were told to assume the impact to take place at Mach 10 or so, with enough kinetic energy to sink, for instance, an aircraft carrier, not even requiring additional explosives.
I don’t know who is right, but looking at the Kinzhal (dagger) in this way, as a non hypersonic impactor, takes away the fascination completely. It certainly cannot hit a bunker which is 100 meters below ground (we know by now that this was fake news), and if it turns out to be a ship killer remains doubtful.

Posted by: grunzt | May 18 2023 19:57 utc | 79

Southfront – last buildings of defense of the UAF in Bakhmut “Domino” taken by Wagner:
https://southfront.org/breaking-wagner-took-control-of-domino-district-in-bakhmut/
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 18 2023 19:45 utc | 76
———————————————————-
What Russia has accomplished in Bakhmut (or should I say Artyomovsk now) must be repeated in about 5 or 6 more locations alone the front line. Hopefully with less resistance and loss of life.

Posted by: Ed | May 18 2023 20:04 utc | 81

I prefer the theory that had the US not ended the war with Japan, the Russians would have and would likely still be there.
Posted by: Up North | May 18 2023 19:11 utc | 59

Please present some evidence for this assumption.
Did you forget that the Russians joined the war against Japan at the request of and with full permission their other then allies. They liberated Manchuria single handed (which they handed back to china) and the only ‘Japanese’ territory they took was the southern half of Sakhalin and some of the Kurils.

Posted by: ChatNPC | May 18 2023 20:06 utc | 83

I don’t think anyone in the west knows anything about Kinzhals, or even about Iskanders or Calibers, other than their names, or maybe some photos, other than those who found out by being on the receiving end…and all of them are dead. Russia won’t launch them for the Ukies (or their masters) to find even the debris. I don’t think any one of those 3 type of missiles were ever intercepted, other than the targets themselves. I think, all that the foreign “donated” AA systems can do is catch some Gerans.

Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 20:11 utc | 85

And it has something to do with sex. Maybe Wilhelm Reich was right. Anyway, sex in the “collective west” has become some kind of ultimate equality barometre with no fun in it and the real kicks are now in sharing every sick fantasy about the Russians. Ra Ra Rasputin…
Posted by: Jonathan W | May 18 2023 19:56 utc | 81
Back in the day Americans used to make jokes about Russia’s female athletes actually being men in disguise. Now it is America’s female athletes who are men. Even America’s pornography features men who are masquerading as women. It is disgusting.

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 18 2023 20:16 utc | 87

@Ed #80
“Perhaps they just don’t see the need to advertise and would rather maintain the element of surprise.”
Indeed, for defensive purposes the weapons only useful as a deterrent if the adversary knows about them.
If the object is to take the offensive, then the more surprise the better.

Posted by: BillB | May 18 2023 20:19 utc | 89

Afternoon SitRep Collection update is posted
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/battlefield-update-2023-05-18-2

Posted by: Will | May 18 2023 20:24 utc | 91

Time for a Folk Song …
for all those poor unfortunate naive Ukrainian defenders of Bakhmut who were hoodwinked by dark forces across the broad Atlantic and by their Galician fascist fellow-traveller leaders in Kiev who led them like lambs to the slaughter – and most will never come home. And for what? For profit dear Henry, for profit! For pillage and plunder Dear Henry, for pillage and plunder!
The Mingulay Boat Song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecuxgrISx0A

Posted by: Don Firineach | May 18 2023 20:25 utc | 93

Yes, the Wagner PMCs have definitely reached the finish line and are confidently advancing in the urban development on a daily basis. But the enemy is still not running, digging in as best they can.
We can see from the drone that the AFU still continues to send reinforcements. Our artillery immediately works on it, then a new batch arrives and so on in a circle.
Now the main battles are taking place in the Samolet district and in the private sector behind Yubileynaya Street.
I would also note that the landscape conditions in the western districts of Bakhmut are very difficult. Most houses are completely destroyed, so there are very many large and long “postcards”. Because of this, it is very unsafe to move around under the fire of Ukrainian artillery and mortars (and they do not stop firing). Enemy copters also frequently appear in the sky.
The mood of the soldiers is excellent. The approaching finale of the urban warfare influences their mood. But the capture of the city will not be the final point of the Bakhmut direction. The enemy continues to press on the flanks and prepares to defend Krasny and Khromovo.

https://t.me/photopmc/670

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | May 18 2023 20:28 utc | 95

Mecouris begins with Lira case:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0yLlPh68Rg

Posted by: AG | May 18 2023 20:34 utc | 97

bottle | May 18 2023 20:13 utc | 91–
Mach 5 isn’t enough to generate a plasma sheath to throw off radar. The antimissile missile can use terminal infrared homing since the incoming missile is hot.
Clearly it is still not easy to hit such a thing.
Isn’t the issue one of time to develop a firing solution, and that’s why MIRVed ICBMs need to be intercepted before they’re released from the nosecone?

Posted by: karlof1 | May 18 2023 20:36 utc | 99