Ukraine Open Thread 2023-119
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on May 18, 2023 at 16:00 UTC | Permalink
next page »SitRep Collection 1 of 2 for today posted now
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/battlefield-update-2023-05-18-1
At today's presser with Uganda's FM Joe Odongo, there were two Q&As dealing with topics frequently discussed on the Ukie thread. One is the African Peace Initiative that was announced by South Africa, the second being the "Grain Deal:"
Question: On Tuesday, President of South Africa Saulian Ramaphosa said that Kiev and Moscow had agreed to receive a delegation from a number of African countries with a peace initiative to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. At the same time, the United States stated that it would be ready to support this initiative only if it was based on the vision of President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky to resolve this conflict. Have the dates of the visit of the African delegation already been determined? What do you think of this statement by the United States? Does this position indicate that the United States is not ready for a real peaceful settlement of the situation in Ukraine at the moment? Was this peace initiative discussed during today's talks with your counterpart?Sergey Lavrov: In my opinion, the United States is not ready at this stage or in the foreseeable future for any constructive action regarding the settlement of the situation in Ukraine. They themselves created it for many years in the context of their strategic course to counteract the objective formation of a multipolar world, preserve their hegemony, and subordinate everyone and everything to their will. Ukraine is used as an obedient tool in this course.
As for President Ramaphosa's initiative. He did make a phone call to President Vladimir Putin and put forward this idea. The President of Russia said that he is always ready to talk with all our partners who are sincerely interested in ensuring a stable situation in the world and that there are no more such provocations and attacks on international law and the rights of citizens.
Now the content of such an upcoming contact is being discussed at the expert level. Its dates will be agreed on a generally acceptable basis. As far as I understand, in the context of President Ramaphosa's wishes, we are talking about mid-late June or early July. Of course, we would like to understand what specific initiatives the President of South Africa and his African colleagues (including President of Uganda Yon Museveni) would like to formulate in order to discuss with us.
As I have said many times, we are open to any serious and interested proposals from any states.
I hope that we will be able to inform you in more detail in the near future.
Question: Why did Russia decide to extend its participation in the grain deal? What guarantees did it receive regarding the implementation of the Russia-UN Memorandum on the removal of obstacles to Russian agricultural exports? How can the implementation of the "deal" be affected by the internal political situation in Turkey? After all, the current agreements have been concluded with the current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but after the second round of the presidential election, which will be held on May 28 this year, the country's leader may change.
Sergey Lavrov: This has nothing to do with Turkey's domestic political processes. The deal did not concern this initially. When UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres proposed it to Turkey (or another country), it concerned the declared task of ensuring food security and the interests of the poorest countries. As rightly noted in the previous question, less than four percent of the grain delivered from Ukrainian ports as part of this "deal" to world markets ended up in the poorest countries in special need of food and included in the relevant list of the World Food Program. Secretary General Antonio Guterres really understands his responsibility for the implementation of his own initiative, which was of a package nature, suggesting that, along with the export of Ukrainian grain, he undertakes to ensure that all restrictions on the export of Russian fertilizers and food are lifted. He and his staff are trying. We see it. They periodically communicate with those countries that have imposed sanctions that impede the normal export of Russian agricultural products. But we do not see any result yet.
Over the past couple of months, Secretary General Antonio Guterres, during my visit to New York at the end of April this year, put forward a new idea on how to achieve the original purpose of his own initiative. As part of this idea, he again pledged to seek the implementation of the Memorandum between the Russian Federation and the UN.
Taking into account the whole range of circumstances and the appeals of our partners, we supported the initiative of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (which he announced yesterday) to extend this deal for another two months, but with a clear understanding that they will be decisive. [My Emphasis]
No need for further comment as Lavrov said what needed to be said.
@ 5 karlof1... thanks... one has to love lavrov for this clarity and forthrightness..
Posted by: james | May 18 2023 16:16 utc | 5
@Featherless | May 18 2023 16:10 utc | 4
Good summary of odd behaviours ... and where is Zaluzhnyi? This question must be repeated until we get an answer.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 18 2023 16:16 utc | 6
Ukrainian officials admit that the Western lobby is putting pressure on the Ukrainian authorities in the case of an early wide offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We've talked about this many times before.So the Head of the Mission of Ukraine to NATO Galibarenko said:
“We are now saying to international partners: be patient, do not push too hard. Now it is more important to think about what else can be done to make this counteroffensive successful.”
All our sources have previously insided that Zelensky negotiated a pause of 1-2 months, then it will be more and more difficult to delay the offensive, since there will be no reasons for increasing military assistance (unless there is a “mega tragedy” “accidentally” in Ukraine, in which the Russians are blamed), The British are interested in this.
It is worth pointing out that Ze made a mistake and spent a lot of effort in the Bakhmut meat grinder, which actually thwarted the spring offensive. At the same time, Western lobbies through the media often “give” Ze and office hints that if they do not fulfill the agreement, they will be “merged” and made more “scapegoats” of this war.
https://t.me/legitimniy/15380
Posted by: Down South | May 18 2023 16:18 utc | 7
Very odd behaviours being exhibited. Zelenskyy won’t go home. Russians seem to want to delay announcing the capture of Bakhmut. American politicians keep referring to “June” as a timetable for unrelated matters. No one wants to talk about the missile attack in Khmelnytskyi and an obsessive focus on the Patriot strike. Rash of “peace” stories being floated in MSM. You have to assume its all deception, and only the Russians are playing to type. Weird.
Posted by: Featherless | May 18 2023 16:10 utc | 4
.
.
Deception.... a possibility !
But it can also be not to push the mood so that they don't lose face, since SHE is now increasingly working towards negotiations in the background, as it seems:
With such a success message from the enemy, this face does not work, but the appearance of a capitulation arises!
So it is better not to submit reports to the people.
Then the way would be blocked to get out of the conflict reasonably without loss of face.
Because... with that the danger would be very, very great, NATO would break up...
all questions " what do we have for "
Possibly also the reason why Wagner takes his time in Bachmut?
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 18 2023 16:27 utc | 8
Norwegian | May 18 2023 16:16 utc | 8
Fear of a coup would explain a lot. I think Zelenskyy senses something involving Zaluzhnyi and he won't return home until he believes it has been dealt with.
Posted by: Featherless | May 18 2023 16:29 utc | 9
Offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine : Ukrainians take a bunch of their corpses after meeting with the 200th brigade.
This is happening all along the front.
https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1659232333642309632?cxt=HHwWgIC96YbB44YuAAAA
Posted by: Derek Henry | May 18 2023 16:36 utc | 10
Hungary today called Ukr a threat to their sovereignty. This is related to threats from Ukr to explode the oil pipeline that goes into Hungary and other countries.
Posted by: rk | May 18 2023 16:40 utc | 11
BAKHMUT: Looks like the remaining 1% of Bakhmut still in the hands of the Ukrainians is quickly slipping away.
The Russians are no longer looking to Bakhmut to be one of their major meat grinders along the zero line.
Where will Russia go next? Where will Ukraine go next?
Posted by: young | May 18 2023 16:51 utc | 12
I'm thinking, that perhaps, regardless of all stories, planted or not, that the US in some manner, perhaps even aggressively, used the Patriot Battery to track, and display, and or, fire on and destroy the RF MOD air assets.......I have read, anyone know??, that the Russian plane and helicopter were returning from their mission....they do carry flaring to distract incoming SAMs, but returning they'd likely have used it up during their attack.....
RF MOD acknowledged one plane one helo, not the two and two, are the MOD still claiming just two????
My money is on an ambush using Patriot in one form or another to direct the attack.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 18 2023 16:54 utc | 13
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 18 2023 16:27 utc | 11
Possibly also the reason why Wagner takes his time in Bachmut?
Also for military reasons? A slow advance all along the front compels the Kiev forces to attempt to hold. That attempt costs troops and equipment, as we are seeing. That's all that's aimed for at present.
A fast Russian advance would also cost Kiev troops and equipment but why do it? It would cost the Russians very many more lives and equipment losses for the same result. The Russians are also well placed for their logistics so no reason to move forward too fast.
They are also well placed to hold against a Kiev counter-attack if it comes.
Though at some stage Kiev must acknowledge that their position is untenable, no matter how much the West insists they fight on. Some time back "b" referred to what we were putting the Ukrainians through as a "crime". It is even more so now.
Posted by: English Outsider | May 18 2023 16:58 utc | 14
Never let it be said that the doddering fools in the EU and US don’t succeed in supporting the economy.
Thanks to the Goebbels-like grip they have on the press, they created a wide open playing field for the likes of Mercouris, Military Summary, Weeb Union, Defense Politics Asia, and many other independent bloggers and YouTubers.
By ceding the ground of neutral, unbiased reporting to these Internet sensations, they scored two “own goals”
1. Destroyed CNN and other mainline media business models.
2. Empowered a lot of folks to gain new income streams.
Well done, western press stooges!
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 18 2023 17:15 utc | 15
You can expose the Americans by their Trump orcBiden cheeseburger rivalry. It is McD v Burger King same crap but good old USA whatever.
Rest of World has moved on and knows that US President is basically representative of organised crime. Look at Whitney Webb blog to see how deep US is a Criminal Front.
World wants to be free of US and able to live normally
All US exports is weapons and conflict
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 18 2023 17:28 utc | 16
Worth mentioning if it hasn't been already: America is playing up the factor of Ukrainians being responsible for the failure of the Patriot missiles!
Quite obviously with the intention of making it clear that the Patriot system couldn't have proved to be inadequate.
CNN has fallen silent on the event, but could feel the need to use the excuse too!
Posted by: Up North | May 18 2023 17:33 utc | 17
Prigozhin sitrep for today, less than one square km left, our opponents are fiercely fighting for every building, yard and entrance, holding Bakhmut is most likely the essence of the counter atack. Unfortunately our flanks continue to crumble.
https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3371
Posted by: Paco | May 18 2023 17:39 utc | 18
>Fear of a coup would explain a lot. I think Zelenskyy senses something involving Zaluzhnyi and he won't return home until he believes it has been dealt with.
Posted by: Featherless | May 18 2023 16:29 utc | 12
This is my sense as well. I believe simplicius76 might have floated that he's under 'house arrest' until an apparent coup attempt is cleared up. Although Rolo's Slavland Chronicles see him either dead or disfavoured.
>Disfavored and ducking out of meetings with his bosses or dead - those seem like the two sensible explanations to me. Also, because Zaluzhny does not have an Israeli passport like most Ukrainian politicians do, I could indeed see a scenario where the Kremlin felt comfortable taking him out.
Posted by: Pudding | May 18 2023 17:43 utc | 19
@ Paco | May 18 2023 17:39 utc | 34
The Russian flank continues to crumble? WTH are they doing there? Oh well, looks like another month or so in Bahkmut.
Posted by: bored | May 18 2023 17:44 utc | 20
Did anyone heard of any attack with "storm" shadows today?
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 17:47 utc | 21
"The Pentagon overvalued US equipment it sent to Ukraine by about $3bn, a Senate aide and a defence official said on Thursday, an error that opened up the possibility of more weapons being sent to Kyiv for its defence against Russian forces.
The error was the result assigning a higher than warranted value on weaponry that was taken from US stocks and then shipped to Ukraine, two senior defence officials said.
“We’ve discovered inconsistencies in how we value the equipment that we’ve given” to Ukraine, one of the senior defence officials told Reuters."
WTF?
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | May 18 2023 17:52 utc | 23
Posted by: bored | May 18 2023 17:44 utc | 37
The city itself is almost taken, Prigozhin complains about the MD not holding on to the flanks, that would've allowed Wagner to encircle the remaining Ukrainian troops which most likely will fall back to Chasov Yar.
Posted by: Paco | May 18 2023 17:52 utc | 24
Posted by: bored | May 18 2023 17:44 utc | 37
The Russian flank continues to crumble? WTH are they doing there? Oh well, looks like another month or so in Bahkmut.
Perhaps Prigozhin is sandbagging Bahkmut because it has been so lucrative for him. This is what happens when you rely too heavily upon mercenaries.
Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | May 18 2023 17:56 utc | 25
@32
the us test standard for multi billion $$ weapons is to test to the extent the failed system is not rigorously proven inadequate
I.e. the risk of failing a poor system is zero.
this is why f-16, and f-35 are only for iraqistan, and gaza
Posted by: paddy | May 18 2023 17:58 utc | 26
@ paddy | May 18 2023 17:58 utc | 45
---
The USA follows a fragile doctrine. Move fast and break things. There is a sucker born every minute.
Posted by: too scents | May 18 2023 18:11 utc | 27
Zelenski is already somewhere under a doctor's scalpel and no one would recognize him again...
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 18 2023 18:13 utc | 28
Posted by: bored | May 18 2023 17:44 utc | 37
The city itself is almost taken, Prigozhin complains about the MD not holding on to the flanks, that would've allowed Wagner to encircle the remaining Ukrainian troops which most likely will fall back to Chasov Yar.
Posted by: Paco | May 18 2023 17:52 utc | 41
Do consider that Prigozhin takes some troop losses and could be using the MD as responsible for not holding their own.
As opposed to accepting his responsibility for not coming out of the battle completely unscathed.
Would that be propaganda or would it be something a little closer to the truth? He certainly has gained a reputation for screaming obscenities and perhaps transferring the blame for troop losses! That could be the very nature of the professional mercenary's war news released to the public?
Posted by: Up North | May 18 2023 18:15 utc | 29
@4 I assume Zelensky is wandering around because the gaudy palace in kiev he uses is probably unprotectable. It's getting to the point where trying to personally kill ukraines pro nato leadership is becoming profitable for Russia. Someone did after all try to light the kremlin on fire and other top officials are sounding genocidal lately.
I mean if you kill the guy who says he wants to kill Russians everywhere, well it seems justifiable.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 18 2023 18:16 utc | 30
@ bored | May 18 2023 17:44 utc | 21
re: . . . WTH are they doing there? Oh well, looks like another month or so in Bahkmut.
It took the mighty US Army four years to pacify Baghdad, and that was against partisans not an army.
Posted by: Don Bacon | May 18 2023 18:18 utc | 31
Does anyone else see the choice of Hiroshima for the G7 venue as being ominous? They chose that, out of all the possible cities to have a chat where "Ukraine will top the agenda". Pure psychopathy.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/18/biden-g7-summit-what-to-watch-00097335
Posted by: Anders Rho | May 18 2023 18:18 utc | 32
It's really instructive to look at what the MSM is reporting, vice what the echo chamber (here, McGregor, Ritter, pro/"neutral" daily YT reports like Weeb Union) reports. I am absolutely not saying MSM are 100% accurate, don't shade things, ghost of Kiev, etc. But there's a real danger of the opposite if you only consume content that says what you want it to say. Like "Russians aren't capturing Bakhmut on purpose since it is a meat grinder", which makes about zero sense in terms of offensive city warfare (defender favored).
I saw a meme recently that had a cartoon of someone doing a computer search for YT content that only says what I want to believe. I wish I could find it...was such a perfect gif for those who only embrace news that says what they want to happen vice what did happen.
For example, every now and then take a look at a Google search for Bakhmut, with the last 24 hours filter. It is almost entirely on the Ukrainians outperforming on the flank attacks and Russia issues like the Prigoshin (sp?) ammo squabbles.
Sure, they may be biased. But you ignore other views to your own danger. Remember Macgregor saying the Russians would roll over Kiev in MAR2022? Even if the MSM has a bias, I'll know Russia is really at a Bakhmut victory when it gets reported by the "other side", which is basically when they actually take the town. It has been over a half a year since the battle started and our side said it's about to fall.
This is one reason, I check in here...to get both sides. If anything I'm probably a bit more on "your side", but I will never be a hopium consumer. That's for Hannity audience and the like. Not for thinking amateur analysts interested in ground truth regardless of which side benefits.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 18 2023 18:22 utc | 33
Wagner defines itself as a private military company, but I would venture that it does not fit the mercenary label as we understand it, nor would the French Foreign Legion or the Spanish Legión Extranjera. We'll find out soon enough -since the Bakhmut deal is almost done- if it is all deceiving theater or as I tend to think an internal struggle to rid the RF of termites in the wood, people that inhabit the Rublyovka, educate their offspring in the west, have real estate in the west and that somehow expect to reach a deal when everybody knows that the west is not "agreement capable" as proved by the two failed Minsk agreements.
Posted by: Paco | May 18 2023 18:27 utc | 34
Bachmut "holds", but not the last Domino
⚔️🇺🇦 The situation in Bakhmut by the end of May 18
▪️ Assault units of the Wagner PMCs have completely taken control of the Domino( «Домино») fortified area;
▪️ The private sector is being cleaned up along Tchaikovsky(Чайковского) Street;
▪️ Fighting continues in the "Airplane"(«Самолет») area
Our sappers are working very carefully. As it already happened, partially surviving houses in newly liberated areas can be mined.
Posted by: La Bastille | May 18 2023 18:28 utc | 35
Prigozin's complains?
Ukies and their masters believe in them come to meat grinder? Madness!
In the Russian army, private or government, no one really complains in public.
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 18:31 utc | 36
"Dagger" is visible to radar for only about 5 seconds.
I derive this result below using the technical information provided by
Simplicius, and then solving the resulting first-order differential
equation. This is substantially shorter than Simplicius's own
qualitative estimate "20-30 seconds at most".
Simplicius shows that hypersonic vehicles cannot survive for long near
sea level without special cladding, which may or may not have been
invented, but anyway is not used on Dagger. Rather, they slow from
hypersonic to supersonic speeds from atmospheric friction.
Dagger slows from v_init (~ Mach 10) to v_final (~ Mach 2-4) as it
descends from its peak (i.e., initial height, h_init ~ 50 km) to h=0.
For those not interested in differential equations, the simple
physical argument is that about 2/3 of the atmosphere is within one
scale height (H = 8 km). Hence, if the atmosphere is going to provide
sufficient drag to bring Dagger below hypersonic (h_hyper = Mach 5),
but not so much as to make it subsonic by the time it reaches the
ground, it must do so within about 1 scale height.
When the velocity falls below hypersonic (Mach 5), Dagger loses its
"plasma cocoon", and so becomes visible to radar. Because this occurs
within about 8 km, and the average speed during this final descent is
conservatively at least Mach 3.5, the time of radar visibility is <~ 5
seconds.
Below, I derive a formula for the height, h_hyper,
at which the Dagger falls below v_hyper = Mach 5:
h_hyper = H*ln[ln(v_init/v_final)/ln(v_init/v_hyper)]
Before giving this derivation, I give a few worked examples in the
Table below. For final flight time, t_visible, I just adopt
v_average = (v_hyper + v_final)/2.
v_initial v_final v_average h_hyper t_visible
(m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (km) (seconds)
3430 1372 1543 2.2 1.4
3430 1029 1372 4.4 3.2
3430 686 1200 6.7 5.6
So, the estimate does vary depending on the unknown final velocity,
but the key point is that for any reasonable numbers, the Dagger goes
below hypersonic within about a scale height, after which it is
quickly reaches the ground. The values in the table are multiples of
the speed of sound at sea level (343 m/s), but I have refrained from
calling them "Mach" because this designation strictly applies to the
local speed of sound.
The derivation of the formula is straightforward, but involves some
calculus.
As the Dagger is traveling downward at speed v, it is slowed by the
atmosphere and sped up by gravity,
dv/dt = -K * v^2 * rho(h)/rho(0) + g
where rho(h) is the density of the atmosphere at h, rho(0) is the
density at h=0, g=9.8 m/s^2 is the strength of the Earth's gravity,
and K is a constant that depends on the mass and geometry of the Dagger.
The form of this formula derives from momentum conservation: the Dagger
imparts momentum to the atmosphere in proportion to rate at which it hits
particles and to its own velocity. But the rate at which it hits particles
is proportional to the density of particles times its own speed.
I adopt an atmospheric profile
rho(h)/rho(0) = exp(-h/H)
where H = 8 km is the scale height of the atmosphere.
Using the chain rule and the fact that v = -dh/dt, this yields
dv/dh = K * v * exp(-h/H) + -g/v
I will show below that the first term dominates, i.e., in the
regime where the slow down is concentrated, the gravity term is
very small. Hence I will ignore it.
This yields
d(ln v)/dh = K*exp(-h/H)
or
ln v = C - K*H * exp(-h/H)
This yields two equation and two unknown (C and K),
ln v_final = C - K*H
ln v_init = C - K*H*exp(-h_init/H) -> C
where I have assumed that exp(-h_init/H) is extremely small.
One easily then finds
K = ln(v_init/v_final)/H
C = ln(v_init)
and hence
ln(v/v_init) = (ln(v_final/v_init)*exp(-h/H)
Thus, solving for h_hyper (i.e., when v=v_hyper = Mach 5)
h_hyper = H*ln[ln(v_init/v_final)/ln(v_init/v_hyper)]
This formula gives characteristic times of a few seconds, during
which gravity would change the speed by (few second)*10 m/s^2, i.e.,
a few 10s of m/s, which is small compared to the speed of sound
and hence can be ignored at first order.
Posted by: Cindy Martin | May 18 2023 18:33 utc | 37
Re. Bakhmut. If you read BMA latest operational analysis, he actually mentioned that the "main" offensive might be around Bakhmut after all. At least it could be before some sort of large attack attempt in the Zaporozhye region.
If Ukraine has/had 80k guys (even when 500 of them reinforced Bakhmut daily for a while), they would still have plenty to push on the flanks of Bakhmut. Klischeevka is kind of a tricky position to defend maybe. However, there's also the other point of view that now that Bakhmut seems to be effectively fallen, Ukraine trying to advance on the flanks is irrelevant, unless they go for the jugular and attempt to encircle the entire city. Ukraine MOD is saying that Russia has significantly strengthened their forces around/behind Bakhmut, which makes an encirclement very unlikely, and instead makes crushing the Ukro flanks around Bakhmut more likely.
Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2023 18:33 utc | 38
"For example, every now and then take a look at a Google search for Bakhmut, with the last 24 hours filter. It is almost entirely on the Ukrainians outperforming on the flank attacks and Russia issues like the Prigoshin (sp?) ammo squabbles."
WOW!!
A search on Google will show 99% pro western war narratives!
Who woulda thought!!
Amazing stuff. Thanks for opening our eyes.
LoL
Posted by: Comandante | May 18 2023 18:37 utc | 39
Sure, they may be biased. But you ignore other views to your own danger. Remember Macgregor saying the Russians would roll over Kiev in MAR2022?
Posted by: Anonymous | May 18 2023 18:22 utc | 34
A well thought out post Anon!
But as to Macgregor's prediction: Both he and Ritter were of the same opinion on account of them not understanding Russia's intent on it being a SMO. Ritter openly admits the reason for the confusion.
Had Russia actually decided to go to war in March 22, it's speculated that the Ukraine side would have ceased to exist within a month or two.
Posted by: Up North | May 18 2023 18:38 utc | 40
It looks like not only the US Patriot AA system, other "donated" foreign AA systems were destroyed on the 16th night (17th morning). Also, lot of foreign shells, missiles and whatnot had been destroyed (today in the morning). We've not been hearing of "storm' shadows lately, have we?
There'd be more hits today night in other "hiding" places in the Ukraine too.
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 18:38 utc | 41
@ Posted by: Anders Rho | May 18 2023 18:18 utc | 33
---
When one thinks of Hiroshima often it comes to mind the atomic bomb the US dropped on Japanese civilians in that city, half way around the world, facing no existential threat. Three days later the US dropped another one on Nagasaki. After having 75 years to think about it most Americans still manage to find a way to justify it. There's a message in there.
Posted by: chunga | May 18 2023 18:40 utc | 42
Yes, as above. Where is the next meatgrinder(s) of UKR forces? Is it possible to position another site to achieve 30,000 KIA?
There are so many variables up in the ether at this time, where is Zaluzhny, Syrsky or is one or the other dead, both?? How long can Zel gallivant around and how does he keep his supply of coke up to "snuff"? Well, Mark, hurry up and wait.
Posted by: paxmark1 | May 18 2023 18:49 utc | 43
When one thinks of Hiroshima often it comes to mind the atomic bomb the US dropped on Japanese civilians in that city, half way around the world, facing no existential threat. Three days later the US dropped another one on Nagasaki. After having 75 years to think about it most Americans still manage to find a way to justify it. There's a message in there.
Posted by: chunga | May 18 2023 18:40 utc | 44
What's the message?
One message would be that the two on Japan have nothing at all to do with America's war against Russia on account of Japan not having the nuclear deterrent and Russia DOES in spades!
Is that the message?
Posted by: Up North | May 18 2023 18:51 utc | 44
The Russian Army was no unstoppable force as I initially thought but it has miraculously carried the day so far. At great cost. It has reinvented itself on the run and has had to do so at times in the glare of some very pointed and harsh criticism.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 18 2023 10:58 utc | 246
Dear Uncle:
Your post contains points critical to understanding the current conflict.
RF commenced the SMO with a relatively small force fighting the largest army in Europe, an army benefiting from 8 years of NATO training (Canada had its trainers at work in 404 before the blood had been washed from Maidan Nezalezhnosti, the Independence Square)
Helmuth von Moltke, chief of the Prussian General Staff and the man responsible for Germany’s victory in the 1870–71 Franco-Prussian war, when compared with Napoleon and Frederick the Great, declined the honour, “for I have never conducted a retreat, the trickiest of all military manoeuvres." The RF completed two of these "trickiest of all military manoeuvres." The first was the retreat from Kherson which extricated not only the complete RF military force but the bulk of the civilian population as well. In the simultaneous retreat from Kharkov RF light infantry successfully retrograded in the face of a UAF force superior in both size and equipment.
As you accurately point out the RF has "re-invented itself on the run." My understanding is that they found the Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) ineffective and have moved toward a reinvigorated divisional structure which combines a range of resources such as AD, EW, and ISR drone forces along with a normal complement of arty, armour, and infantry.
What has gone largely unremarked is that for the past six months all of the RF advances have primarily been achieved by Wagner which is a light infantry force. This begs the question of what will occur when the re-invented RF "heavy division(s)" finally take to the field.
I believe the following are accurate statements:
1) Wagner was used to provide a respite to permit the RF to reconstruct itself in a form better suited to the present conflict. Despite being light infantry the Orchestra has defeated some of the best UAF units.
2) Wagner "theatrics" served a purpose in that they focused attention on Wagner (seen any news about RF regular forces? About re-equipping and re-training?), gave the impression of conflict and incompetence within the RF senior ranks (maskirovka to cause the West to under-estimate the opponent and believe NATOstan stood on the verge of victory).
3) Since confirmation bias assisted NATOstan in the belief they were poised for victory, NATOstan declined to undertake direct involvement in the conflict. In essence the NATOstan response created a "breathing space" one that permitted RF to reconstruct its forces, increase its military production, deliver protracted combined arms training to both new inductees and to its officer ranks, while generating both the force structure and the logistics stocks required for the next phase.
4) I believe the recent defeat of the Patriot battery is a significant inflection point in this conflict. Whether they admit to it or not, the senior NATOstan decision makers must confront the fact RF has demonstrated the capability to neuter the most advanced weapons NATOstan can supply. NATOstan leaders are now thinking "We will not see the approaching Dagger. We will only know it has arrived when Big Ben collapses, our armaments factories crumble, our LNG ports become fireballs, and our fleets sink to the bottom of our harbours"
5) It is likely NATOstan will soon seek a peace settlement. RF will respond they can find no one with whom any such settlement can be negotiated. NATOstan ignores the UN Charter, it ignores the provisions of the NATO Charter, it participated in the Minsk Accords under false premises, it has advocated the overthrow and destruction of Russia, it has expressed no problems with statements of genocidal intent such as the killing of all Russians wherever they may be found. Russia is likely to state it will only enter peace negotiations once an independent non-aligned group of states investigates and pronounces on the MH-17 incident, the Nord Stream destruction, the Skripal Affair, The Bucha war crime, the Odessa Massacre, the US involvement in the Maidan killings, the US overthrow of a democratically elected Ukrainian government, the West's failure to uphold past commitments made with regard to NATO expansion, NATOstan's encroachment on the Russo-Finnish border, the NATOstan rejection of repeatedly voiced RF concerns regarding Russian security interests, the voiced Western intent to expand NATO to the Asia Pacific, the fact of America provoking military aggression against a civilization which has not attacked outside its own borders in over 2,000 years, the endless promotion of colour revolution, civil repression, and military aggression of grave concern to Russia, the BRICS, and a Global South repeatedly raped by a West which now suddenly proposes peace?
Stay safe.
Cheers.
Posted by: Sushi | May 18 2023 18:53 utc | 45
The Latest Flash Point Among Ukraine’s Allies Is Whether to Send F-16s-NYT
Why not? Let them come.
Russia will knock them off the sky...and, even force them to land in Russia... :)
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 18:54 utc | 46
Zaluzhnyi has sponsors somewhere and he will appear when Zelensky is no longer needed for the next phase of the game.
Posted by: viktor sashnikov | May 18 2023 18:55 utc | 47
@ThusspakeZarathustra
"The Pentagon overvalued US equipment it sent to Ukraine by about $3bn..."
Thanks for posting that! Very interesting!
I "suspect" there may be a lot of game playing on both sides. It appears that some in the Ukrainian military do not want to launch an offensive that is doomed to fail... to keep putting it off they are claiming there is not enough weapons and ammunition. The West claims that Ukraine has received 97% of all the weapons promised, so should get moving.
Then a number of huge ammunition and weapons depots are serendipitously hit by Russian missiles, requiring the postponement of the offensive.
When the Italians capitulated to the Allies in 1943, and the Germans took over the country, the Germans found huge amounts of fuel and weapons caches that the Italians claimed they never had, always demanding more supplies from Germany before beginning any operation.
Posted by: Rokossovsky | May 18 2023 18:55 utc | 48
"Had Russia actually decided to go to war in March 22, it's speculated that the Ukraine side would have ceased to exist within a month or two."
Bad decision. "If you grasp a nettle, do it firmly." https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/grasp-the-nettle.html
Going slow has cost a lot of Russian lives. And arguably Ukranian lives. And allowed time for the West/Ukraine to respond. I mean why even go for Kiev, if not serious? Had to abandon a shit ton of equipment. What a waste. And they ended up switching tactics and going to artillery battles in the end.
It's not like the Ukranians love them because the Russians had a weak initial attack. It's better to be feared than loved. Moronic decision by the Russians. And sort of implies all kinds of corruption issues within their force structure. As well as Putin's hearing what he wants to hear versus ground truth. Add onto that the difference in will involved in "fighting to stop an invader" versus "doing a special military operation"
Posted by: Anonymous | May 18 2023 18:59 utc | 49
@46 The message that could be taken is that the US has done it before without an actual need and may do it again. Your point about Russia's ability to respond in kind is very valid, but this is the US we're talking about. Being rational is just a guideline.
Posted by: chunga | May 18 2023 18:59 utc | 50
This formula gives characteristic times of a few seconds, during
which gravity would change the speed by (few second)*10 m/s^2, i.e.,
a few 10s of m/s, which is small compared to the speed of sound
and hence can be ignored at first order.
Posted by: Cindy Martin | May 18 2023 18:33 utc | 39
.
.
Hey, get in touch with the Russians' development department...they're looking for people like you
.... to clean....
.
Rarely seen such rubbish..... THE Americans are looking for the solution and you are sitting around here!
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 18 2023 19:00 utc | 51
Zaluzhnyi has sponsors ...
Posted by: viktor sashnikov | May 18 2023 18:55 utc | 49
---
Are they Zionists?
Posted by: too scents | May 18 2023 19:03 utc | 52
Cindy Martin | May 18 2023 18:33 utc | 39--
Thanks much for the work you did and the time it took to present it!! Even if the time exposure to radar was 20 seconds, that's almost no time to develop a firing solution for any sort of weapon. I got to thinking about that when I read that part of his report. IMO, the only recourse is to put up a wall of bullets--but in what direction?!? And of course, all those bullets must fall to earth somewhere. Since the plasma cloud creates a "sink" absorbing radar emissions, might the sink be detectable and thus inform the operators of an incoming hypersonic? Russia must have some means of tracking them since they know where it's going so they can look at its trail. After all, Russia knows it won't have a monopoly on such weapons forever.
The wishful thinking of the NEOs in the USA and the attempt to save face to fight Putin later.
.
According to the US, the Ukraine conflict is likely to remain frozen for decades.😂😂😂
The White House is discussing options that include establishing potential borders that Ukraine and Russia would not cross, Politico writes.
Freezing the conflict would reduce the number of military clashes and the cost of supporting Kiev, and reduce public attention to the conflict, the material said.
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 18 2023 19:07 utc | 54
@46 The message that could be taken is that the US has done it before without an actual need and may do it again. Your point about Russia's ability to respond in kind is very valid, but this is the US we're talking about. Being rational is just a guideline.
Posted by: chunga | May 18 2023 18:59 utc | 53
The US doing it with nukes without a need is one of the theories.
I prefer the theory that had the US not ended the war with Japan, the Russians would have and would likely still be there.
And I don't pay much attention to the theory that there would have been too much allied loss of lives had they invaded.
It's always good to speculate, but we need to keep in mind that Americans appreciate the glass parking lot theory every bit as much as Russians.
Posted by: Up North | May 18 2023 19:11 utc | 55
Posted by: Sushi | May 18 2023 18:53 utc | 47
Well Said ! I don‘t agree 100% with everything you so elegantly wrote, but I Definately owe you a couple of rounds of drinks
Posted by: Exile | May 18 2023 19:13 utc | 56
Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2023 18:33 utc | 40
Having digested the latest videos from WeebUnion, and Military Summary, I see a potential for a rout of the UAF flank attack to the south of Bakhmut.
With the last supply road north to Chasiv-Yar cut, any remnants being driven out of the city will have to use the southern road. That allows for a scenario where Wagner could chase them into the open, destroy them with artillery, then sweep southward and attack the other elements of the UAF now threatening the southern flank from the rear.
Destroy, and encircle.
Essentially killing the counter-attacks. No idea how realistic a scenario this is, but by losing Bakhmut it appears there really isn't a good outcome for the UAF as long as RF stays aggressive.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 18 2023 19:13 utc | 57
Zelensky is apparently back in Ukraine as he met with China's delegation.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202305/1290991.shtml
Posted by: MG | May 18 2023 19:14 utc | 58
It is past 10 p.m. in Ukraine and it is quite silent now...too silent...
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 19:20 utc | 59
Zelensky is apparently back in Ukraine as he met with China's delegation.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202305/1290991.shtml
Posted by: MG | May 18 2023 19:14 utc | 62
Maybe Putin told him that it was o.k. to go home?
Let's hope it's a quiet night!
Posted by: Up North | May 18 2023 19:27 utc | 60
@ostro #63
Sound of Silence is ominous ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAEppFUWLfc
Posted by: Don Firineach | May 18 2023 19:31 utc | 61
@mo3.1, #57; I saw that this morning and here is a link to the ridiculous story: https://www.rt.com/russia/576513-ukraine-conflict-frozen-politicHere is an excerpt from the article:
"The administration of US President Joe Biden is reportedly considering ‘freezing’ the conflict in Ukraine for the foreseeable future, instead of pushing for the country’s victory, according to sources cited by Politico on Thursday."
Apparently president potato head wants to decide for Putin what he must do with the SMO! Arrogance off the charts in my opinion! Utterly unbelievable.
Posted by: Firefly | May 18 2023 19:33 utc | 62
The Koked-out Kowboy using the Chinese as a human shield!
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 18 2023 19:33 utc | 63
uncle tungsten @ 246 is not me
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 18 2023 18:57 utc | 51
Ooops,
Should have been:
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 18 2023 10:58 utc | 247
Posted by: Sushi | May 18 2023 19:34 utc | 64
Oops, I messed up the link I just provided. Please remove the word Here at the end of the link.
Posted by: Firefly | May 18 2023 19:35 utc | 65
#67.
Hope so! That's all that Russia ever really wanted! Maybe China has done the job after all?
There's no doubt that the night of the 16th. didn't sit very well in American stomachs.
Posted by: Up North | May 18 2023 19:38 utc | 66
If NATO were a defensive alliance it would recognize the one waged by Russia for what it is. The only frozen conflict is the one in the heads of those commentators who are measuring Russian successes or failures as if it were waging the offensive war that NATO says it is. And now a news flash: the MSM has ceased to do news flashes. Rather, its main task is to do elevator speeches for the military-industrial complex, which is taking over the "collective west" country by country. This it wouldn't be able to do without the MSM.
Posted by: Jonathan W | May 18 2023 19:39 utc | 67
I wouldnt be able to determine the whereabouts based on that article. the paragraph or sentences indicating- "Ukraine is the first stop of Li's trip. He is also scheduled to visit Poland, France, Germany and Russia." if there was face to face rather than Zoom, it could have occurred elsewhere. No photograph? Why would they pass that up? Primary consideration for that kind of noise.
Posted by: Not Ewe | May 18 2023 19:41 utc | 68
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 18 2023 16:27 utc | 9
---------------------------------------------------
Zelensky is back in Kiev and meeting with someone from China, as I understand it, he spoke with Xi Jinping by phone, or at least someone representing Xi about "peace" proposal. Just heard the news this morning.
Posted by: Ed | May 18 2023 19:43 utc | 69
and K is a constant that depends on the mass and geometry of the Dagger.
The form of this formula derives from momentum conservation: the Dagger
imparts momentum to the atmosphere in proportion to rate at which it hits
particles and to its own velocity. But the rate at which it hits particles
is proportional to the density of particles times its own speed.
I adopt an atmospheric profile
rho(h)/rho(0) = exp(-h/H)
where H = 8 km is the scale height of the atmosphere.
Using the chain rule and the fact that v = -dh/dt, this yields
dv/dh = K * v * exp(-h/H) + -g/v
I will show below that the first term dominates, i.e., in the
regime where the slow down is concentrated, the gravity term is
very small. Hence I will ignore it.
This yields
d(ln v)/dh = K*exp(-h/H)
or
ln v = C - K*H * exp(-h/H)
This yields two equation and two unknown (C and K),
ln v_final = C - K*H
ln v_init = C - K*H*exp(-h_init/H) -> C
where I have assumed that exp(-h_init/H) is extremely small.
One easily then finds
K = ln(v_init/v_final)/H
C = ln(v_init)
and hence
ln(v/v_init) = (ln(v_final/v_init)*exp(-h/H)
Thus, solving for h_hyper (i.e., when v=v_hyper = Mach 5)
h_hyper = H*ln[ln(v_init/v_final)/ln(v_init/v_hyper)]
This formula gives characteristic times of a few seconds, during
which gravity would change the speed by (few second)*10 m/s^2, i.e.,
a few 10s of m/s, which is small compared to the speed of sound
and hence can be ignored at first order.
Posted by: Cindy Martin | May 18 2023 18:33 utc | 39
Cindy Martin:
I basically concur with your mathematics. However; I don't see any consideration for variations in the reentry angle. You are obviously calculating for a hypersonic missile entering the atmosphere on a near vertical trajectory. For projectiles with a launch velocity of about 0 to Mach 5, maximum range is achieved at a launch angle of about 45 degrees, presuming no atmosphere. In practice, heavier, larger caliber projectiles reach greater range at greater launch angles because they can sooner reach higher altitudes where the atmosphere is not as dense. There are so many variables that I will not presume to offer a calculation. However; I believe that both of you are essentially correct with any discrepancies being less than would result from different launch and reentry angles. Keep in mind that the turn radius at any achievable acceleration rate increases with the square of velocity. It is extremely unlikely that Kinsel can make dramatic changes in its trajectory during its terminal approach.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 18 2023 19:43 utc | 70
Southfront - last buildings of defense of the UAF in Bakhmut "Domino" taken by Wagner:
https://southfront.org/breaking-wagner-took-control-of-domino-district-in-bakhmut/
The remaining units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were escaping from the area in recent days, leaving their strongholds mostly at night. Ukrainian servicemen are leaving their weapons, running from the city on foot, climbing on a hill located through the forest area on the outskirts. Their retreat is not coordinated. Some Ukrainian servicemen run to Ivanovskoye (Krasnoe) through the ruins of the farm, others go to Chasov Yar.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 18 2023 19:45 utc | 71
The Patriot system can not intercept the Iskander ballistic missile let alone a manoeuvring dagger.....the Patriot system had no chance but the Ukranian forces will take the brunt of its failure due to other factors like dispersal or flawed tactics rather than inherent system limitations and hyperbole. I think we are seeing the END in sight...expect movement on Odessa to cut off coastal access for the remainder of the former Ukraine. Wagner is a Russian government asset....there are no Wagner aircraft or tanks...or artillery....there are Russian line unit FOO and ATC attached to Wagner light infantry units...the little bald mouthy cook is just reading a script...hoping to feign weakness and discord to entice their opposite numbers to pop their meth and take a poke. And don't think the situation on the Mexican border is in no way connected to Russia's ability to conduct asymmetric warfare on the soft underbelly.... Doug and Scott have given their unbiased assessment of the conflict using their understanding of Russian precedent and current doctrine and they where alot more accurate than any other Western commentators....every word spewing forth from the mainstream media...is utter bullshit
Posted by: Joe | May 18 2023 19:49 utc | 72
Assault units of the PMC “Wagner” completely took control of the fortified area “Domino” in Artemovsk.
The last fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the city was cleared. Now it needs to be cleared of mines and carefully examined, since small groups of Ukrainian military may still remain inside.
Fighting is currently taking place in the aircraft sector and in the private sector on the street. Tchaikovsky.
After taking Domino, it remains to solve the problem with the remnants of the armed forces of Ukraine in the south-west and close the flanks. The history of defending Artemovsk (Bakhmut) for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is coming to an end.
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 18 2023 19:50 utc | 73
If it hasn’t become clear by now, the reason Russia and China are refusing to take the offensive is because the NATO forces, which chiefly consist of the US military and its resources, are being rapidly and irreparably drained in the current environment. There is, therefore, no reason to take an aggressive stance so long as the NATO forces are throwing themselves into the vortex of assured destrucution.
-Vox Day https://voxday.net/2023/05/18/death-of-a-patriot/
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 18 2023 19:54 utc | 74
"...After all, Russia knows it won't have a monopoly on such weapons forever."
Posted by: karlof1 | May 18 2023 19:04 utc | 56
---------------------------------------------------------
I am not so sure that Russia has a monopoly on hypersonic weapons. First, I think China has it (perhaps with Russia's help) but i think the US is bluffing when they claim that their efforts to create on failed. Perhaps they just don't see the need to advertise and would rather maintain the element of surprise.
Posted by: Ed | May 18 2023 19:54 utc | 75
And it has something to do with sex. Maybe Wilhelm Reich was right. Anyway, sex in the "collective west" has become some kind of ultimate equality barometre with no fun in it and the real kicks are now in sharing every sick fantasy about the Russians. Ra Ra Rasputin...
Posted by: Jonathan W | May 18 2023 19:56 utc | 76
Up North | May 18 2023 19:38 utc | 71
Joe should jump on the Korea Solution before Donald claims it.
Posted by: dh | May 18 2023 19:56 utc | 77
"...After all, Russia knows it won't have a monopoly on such weapons forever."
Posted by: karlof1 | May 18 2023 19:04 utc | 56
---------------------------------------------------------
.
.
monopoly not !
But an uncatchable advance in development and experience!
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 18 2023 19:56 utc | 78
Cindy Martin | May 18 2023 18:33 utc | 39
What is the point of making a missile hypersonic, if that speed is consumed during the final approach, and the impact is only at Mach 2-4? And all the energy between Mach 12 and Mach 2-4 goes to waste? Previously, we were told to assume the impact to take place at Mach 10 or so, with enough kinetic energy to sink, for instance, an aircraft carrier, not even requiring additional explosives.
I don't know who is right, but looking at the Kinzhal (dagger) in this way, as a non hypersonic impactor, takes away the fascination completely. It certainly cannot hit a bunker which is 100 meters below ground (we know by now that this was fake news), and if it turns out to be a ship killer remains doubtful.
Posted by: grunzt | May 18 2023 19:57 utc | 79
@ grunzt 84:
please take a look at
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-mim-104-patriot-destruction
where you can find quite some info about operational mode of Kinshal and Iskander, and also about the inherent limitations of Patriot
Posted by: daniel_s | May 18 2023 20:02 utc | 80
Southfront - last buildings of defense of the UAF in Bakhmut "Domino" taken by Wagner:
https://southfront.org/breaking-wagner-took-control-of-domino-district-in-bakhmut/
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 18 2023 19:45 utc | 76
----------------------------------------------------------
What Russia has accomplished in Bakhmut (or should I say Artyomovsk now) must be repeated in about 5 or 6 more locations alone the front line. Hopefully with less resistance and loss of life.
Posted by: Ed | May 18 2023 20:04 utc | 81
Posted by: grunzt | May 18 2023 19:57 utc | 84
.
There is only one thing left to say
..................Crackhead....................
.
I think there is a lot of talk about how fast the Khinzal is, but people don't realize how fast and difficult it is to intercept the older Kh-22/Kh-32 as well.
The Kh-32 is the modernized version of the Kh-22 that entered service in 1962.
The Kh-32 is designed to be launchable from an aircraft, climb to an altitude of 40km, i.e. in the stratosphere, and reach speeds of around Mach 5 over its 1000km range, and then descend steeply in the last few kilometers
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 18 2023 20:05 utc | 82
I prefer the theory that had the US not ended the war with Japan, the Russians would have and would likely still be there.
Posted by: Up North | May 18 2023 19:11 utc | 59
Please present some evidence for this assumption.
Did you forget that the Russians joined the war against Japan at the request of and with full permission their other then allies. They liberated Manchuria single handed (which they handed back to china) and the only 'Japanese' territory they took was the southern half of Sakhalin and some of the Kurils.
Posted by: ChatNPC | May 18 2023 20:06 utc | 83
There is only one thing left to say
..................Crackhead....................
.
I think there is a lot of talk about how fast the Khinzal is, but people don't realize how fast and difficult it is to intercept the older Kh-22/Kh-32 as well.
The Kh-32 is the modernized version of the Kh-22 that entered service in 1962.
The Kh-32 is designed to be launchable from an aircraft, climb to an altitude of 40km, i.e. in the stratosphere, and reach speeds of around Mach 5 over its 1000km range, and then descend steeply in the last few kilometers
.
Whereby it reaches about Mach 7 to 8
.
Sorry an addendum.
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 18 2023 20:07 utc | 84
I don't think anyone in the west knows anything about Kinzhals, or even about Iskanders or Calibers, other than their names, or maybe some photos, other than those who found out by being on the receiving end...and all of them are dead. Russia won't launch them for the Ukies (or their masters) to find even the debris. I don't think any one of those 3 type of missiles were ever intercepted, other than the targets themselves. I think, all that the foreign "donated" AA systems can do is catch some Gerans.
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 20:11 utc | 85
@Cindy Martin, 39, 18:33
Google: Plasma Field Telemetry for Hypersonic Flight
PDF available from ResearchGate
MIRVs that come in at Mach 20-25 and therefore generate much more plasma have a significant plasma sheath only above 15km with the highest electron density at 26km altitude.
Mach 5 isn't enough to generate a plasma sheath to throw off radar. The antimissile missile can use terminal infrared homing since the incoming missile is hot.
Clearly it is still not easy to hit such a thing.
Posted by: bottle | May 18 2023 20:13 utc | 86
And it has something to do with sex. Maybe Wilhelm Reich was right. Anyway, sex in the "collective west" has become some kind of ultimate equality barometre with no fun in it and the real kicks are now in sharing every sick fantasy about the Russians. Ra Ra Rasputin...
Posted by: Jonathan W | May 18 2023 19:56 utc | 81
Back in the day Americans used to make jokes about Russia's female athletes actually being men in disguise. Now it is America's female athletes who are men. Even America's pornography features men who are masquerading as women. It is disgusting.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 18 2023 20:16 utc | 87
Posted by: grunzt | May 18 2023 19:57 utc | 84
The main attraction is as a delivery vehicle for nukes that can maneuver and so is not on a ballistic trajectory (on which it is completely predictable). Also they fly lower than ICBMs so are detected later.
Posted by: bottle | May 18 2023 20:18 utc | 88
@Ed #80
"Perhaps they just don't see the need to advertise and would rather maintain the element of surprise."
Indeed, for defensive purposes the weapons only useful as a deterrent if the adversary knows about them.
If the object is to take the offensive, then the more surprise the better.
Posted by: BillB | May 18 2023 20:19 utc | 89
Also for military reasons? A slow advance all along the front compels the Kiev forces to attempt to hold. That attempt costs troops and equipment, as we are seeing. That's all that's aimed for at present.
Yes. The infantry will periodically hit the Ukes. Their jobs is to "hold" the Ukes in place. Artillery and glide bombs do the bulk of the work. It's somewhat a slow approach, you have to depend on the Ukes to continue to send fresh meat. But it's working and casualties are relatively low on the Russian side. The Ukrainians are getting slaughtered.
Posted by: JackG | May 18 2023 20:23 utc | 90
Afternoon SitRep Collection update is posted
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/battlefield-update-2023-05-18-2
where is Zaluzhnyi? This question must be repeated until we get an answer.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 18 2023 16:16 utc | 7
Indeed, along with with where is Gonzalo Lira? Lest we forget.
Posted by: West of England Andy | May 18 2023 20:24 utc | 92
Time for a Folk Song ...
for all those poor unfortunate naive Ukrainian defenders of Bakhmut who were hoodwinked by dark forces across the broad Atlantic and by their Galician fascist fellow-traveller leaders in Kiev who led them like lambs to the slaughter - and most will never come home. And for what? For profit dear Henry, for profit! For pillage and plunder Dear Henry, for pillage and plunder!
The Mingulay Boat Song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecuxgrISx0A
Posted by: Don Firineach | May 18 2023 20:25 utc | 93
@Sushi | May 18 2023 18:53 utc | 47
Great post! Oh, I wish.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 18 2023 20:27 utc | 94
Yes, the Wagner PMCs have definitely reached the finish line and are confidently advancing in the urban development on a daily basis. But the enemy is still not running, digging in as best they can.We can see from the drone that the AFU still continues to send reinforcements. Our artillery immediately works on it, then a new batch arrives and so on in a circle.
Now the main battles are taking place in the Samolet district and in the private sector behind Yubileynaya Street.
I would also note that the landscape conditions in the western districts of Bakhmut are very difficult. Most houses are completely destroyed, so there are very many large and long "postcards". Because of this, it is very unsafe to move around under the fire of Ukrainian artillery and mortars (and they do not stop firing). Enemy copters also frequently appear in the sky.
The mood of the soldiers is excellent. The approaching finale of the urban warfare influences their mood. But the capture of the city will not be the final point of the Bakhmut direction. The enemy continues to press on the flanks and prepares to defend Krasny and Khromovo.
https://t.me/photopmc/670
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | May 18 2023 20:28 utc | 95
Ed | May 18 2023 19:54 utc | 80--
Thanks for your reply. ICBMs are hypersonic as Simplicius noted in his excellent post on the topic; so, perhaps they ought to be described differently.
grunzt | May 18 2023 19:57 utc | 84--
The point is to make the missile invisible until just prior to the point of impact such that there's no way to defend against it. This point made by Sushi @47 above is crucial:
4) I believe the recent defeat of the Patriot battery is a significant inflection point in this conflict. Whether they admit to it or not, the senior NATOstan decision makers must confront the fact RF has demonstrated the capability to neuter the most advanced weapons NATOstan can supply. NATOstan leaders are now thinking "We will not see the approaching Dagger. We will only know it has arrived when Big Ben collapses, our armaments factories crumble, our LNG ports become fireballs, and our fleets sink to the bottom of our harbours." [My Emphasis of his emphasis]
As Martyanov's been preaching for several years, the West will need to rethink everything as the situation isn't at all what they assumed it would be.
Mecouris begins with Lira case:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0yLlPh68Rg
Posted by: AG | May 18 2023 20:34 utc | 97
I wish we had more info on what happened to the Patriot. Looks like there were 24 Patriot missiles and 6 NASAMS. You can see the NASAMS if you watch the video, they have smaller exhaust "fireballs" and move slower. So one option the Russians send 30 old dummy cruise missiles or maybe Iskanders and then 2 follow up Daggers. The Patriot was no longer firing when it got hit, nor the NASAM. Did the 30 or so missiles hit anything? Don't know.
Or maybe the Patriots DID take out some Daggers. It would be an impressive feat if it pulled it off. The Patriot has a very fine radar and a good interceptor against higher altitude missiles. It's not meant for drones or low flying cruise missiles, though it does ok if it has AWACS support (the missiles have data link). It needed a few more NASAMs around it and some CRAMs around it. Don't know if that would have saved it from a Dagger. We don't know. Another problem was as soon as they turned on that big radar, the Russians had its exact coordinates.
All in all both sides did well. The Patriot and NASAMs only got killed after running out of ammo, and the Russians killed them.
Posted by: JackG | May 18 2023 20:34 utc | 98
bottle | May 18 2023 20:13 utc | 91--
Mach 5 isn't enough to generate a plasma sheath to throw off radar. The antimissile missile can use terminal infrared homing since the incoming missile is hot.
Clearly it is still not easy to hit such a thing.
Isn't the issue one of time to develop a firing solution, and that's why MIRVed ICBMs need to be intercepted before they're released from the nosecone?
"All in all both sides did well. The Patriot and NASAMs only got killed after running out of ammo, and the Russians killed them."
so you did well because you ran out of ammo in 90 seconds and then got killed?
Posted by: Comandante | May 18 2023 20:38 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman “ Russia's hit has destroyed U.S Patriot missiles system”
Ukrainian Air Force spokesman refuses to answer when asked if Russia destroyed the US Patriot system.
Video https://twitter.com/AbrahamStein8/status/1659227900950749184?s=20
Posted by: Dave Oneil | May 18 2023 16:04 utc | 1