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May 17, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-117
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As Lugansk is Russian territory, giving Storm Shadow to the Ukrainians is direct action by the UK, so what if some missile falls on London? True, the US is using the UK as the cat’s paw, but…
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 7:52 utc | 201
Biden and the west talk the talk.
Vladimir Putin and Russia walk the walk.
Posted by: Mark2 | May 18 2023 7:54 utc | 202
Posted by: Boy | May 18 2023 7:49 utc | 208
There was evidence last Fall that fuel tankers were delivering diesel fuel into the port of Yuzhne near Odessa amidst grain ships. Most likely this has been of little concern as it must be moved to intermediate storage locations closer to the front (i.e. east side of the Dnepr) and there have been lot of hit on these fuel storages.
Maybe they can also get some fuel overland through Poland, like everything else. But transporting might not be very efficient.
It was pretty obvious that US was making a serious effort thinking they could “shut down” skies over Kiev. A major blow has now been dealt to it. US is also now hampering plans to give F-16 – or even send Ukrainian pilots with F-16s. That means an expanding degree of free and uncontested air space to hit every Nato target they can locate in Ukraine.
Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2023 7:55 utc | 203
Unimperator @203 and others
What do you think “radio -beacons in 155 mm shells “ means? Why would artillery shells have emitting radio -beacons on them whilst in storage? Did the Russians find out remote- control codes that “turn them on remotely “ , so allowing the Russians to home-in on them in storage? I have heard of the French remotely turning-off the missiles used by Serbia in its war of survival in Bosnia in the 1990s. The Serbs were supposedly very surprised with that ; as they paid the French good money in good faith for them .
Posted by: Boy | May 18 2023 7:59 utc | 204
Boy | May 18 2023 7:49 utc | 208
A new name dropshit troll.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 18 2023 8:19 utc | 205
The Ukrainians kept saying that the American “super-complex” Patriot would shoot down targets at a distance of 150 km, but as it appears, the Americans deceived them… 🙂
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 8:19 utc | 206
ostro | May 18 2023 8:19 utc | 214
Its bumbs up for the American nicnacs. I watch their trash talk, their trash products.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 18 2023 8:37 utc | 207
Preparing USA for a climb down.
The evil clown speaks…
99-year-old former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, the main items from a new interview:
📝The West is partly to blame for the conflict in Ukraine. The plans to include Ukraine in NATO became a destabilizing factor.
📝The task of world leaders is to bring the Ukrainian conflict to an end. To establish a lasting peace in Europe, the West must, firstly, include Ukraine in NATO, because it has become the most armed state in Europe, and secondly, agree on rapprochement with Russia in order to “create a stable eastern border.”
📝The US-China conflict course is the main threat to the world. “Instead of digging in, America will have to admit that China has interests. Ukraine is a good example.”
Fat chance rsole and if you think Ukraine has too amny armaments, give it another year and Russia will deplete the stash to a secure level. You have always been the handmaiden of an ignorant and supremacist USA and now you are facing a major defeat of your life’s work.
Suck it up fool.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 18 2023 8:41 utc | 208
ostro #8:19 utc | 214
150km was a typo. They meant 150mm.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 18 2023 8:43 utc | 209
[211]
https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992
You might find the list here interesting including the Ad Blue and Diesel in the list
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 18 2023 8:43 utc | 210
I watched another Dagistan destroying merican tattoos. Search terms in youtube no longer bring up macgregor getting choked down. A younger Nemedigedov. As formidable as Zacharozia. I could not be bothered looking up the spelling for anything. The chef. the chick. and those mma fighters. full spectrum warfare.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 18 2023 8:48 utc | 211
Late retards
‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾
With the horses gone and the barn burnt down to cinder some really slow people arrive to talk about fire prevention: “Former world leaders make nuclear appeal to G7” (RT).
What the hell is wrong with these people? Where have they been? Being this late is only an insult. I’m unable to contain my disgust for them but have deleted several paragraphs of swearing 😀
First paragraph:
A letter signed by over 250 former heads of state, cabinet ministers, diplomats, and scientists urged the G7 on Wednesday to not allow nuclear arms control talks to fall victim to the current great power confrontation.
And the rest is just more of the same “respectable but deluded” twaddle arriving at the very least eight years too late (if not 20).
“The west” is agreement incapable and appealing for the G7 to display any sanity is ludicrous.
If it was me this kind of shit would be increasing the risk of nuclear extinction, not lessening it. You’re all very lucky it’s not up to me 🙂
Yeah sure they’re all patsies and idiots playing into yet another “…but, but, but Russia!” western narrative however unlike the local automated sewage of “comments” they’re supposed to be genuine people with brains and thus deserve the hate (as opposed to indifference).
One way or another the US has to go and take with it the UK and EU. This is in progress as it has been forced into being by “the west” themselves, their belligerency and their “agreement incapability” and their deceits. That’s the starting point, that’s the status quo of geopolitics, that’s reality, and anyone who doesn’t get that isn’t relevant nor worth anything at all.
I’ll stop before I’ll need to delete more swearing lol XD
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | May 18 2023 8:49 utc | 212
Budanov is asking for an arrival in his lap, will his wish be heard?
“We killed supporters of the war on Russian territory,” Ukraine claims. This is the lead international story in The Times today. The words of Ukraine’s chief terrorist, Budanov, are quoted, as you will understand.
I wonder if the White House spokesmen will now claim to have heard nothing of the sort?
https://t.me/ukraine_watch/2887
Posted by: Norwegian | May 18 2023 8:50 utc | 213
Boy #7:59 utc | 212
“as they paid the French good money in good faith for them .”
That was their second mistake 😉
On topic of radio beacons: perhaps such a tell tale could have been added to the pallets at many points along the logistics trail and Russia has many allies in that trail.
Perhaps the shells are designed with beacons that should be powered on near the use time but given a shortage of qualified people in Ukraine it was agreed to supply with beacons active as they were about to stage a “counter offensive” and rush rush rush was the order.
Its hard to tell but my 2cents would be that they were simply tracked by satellite and drone and traditional spycraft.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 18 2023 8:53 utc | 214
Sunny Runny Burger | May 18 2023 8:49 utc | 220
We wait and watch as western bullshit is hit by Kinzals. Bullshit only goes so far. The Chinese are calling it. They are a peaceful culture. The shit in our media now that is proclaimed as news… There is a fiction writer comes to mind. Hobbits come into the equation.
The numbers that are brain dead and will die astounds me.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 18 2023 9:03 utc | 215
That should be the final nail in the Patriot coffin. Only a dunce country would buy one. A Patriotic dud from start to finish and at immense cost. Will there be an inquiry into how corruption has swallowed the USA military? Nope, not even an audit.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 18 2023 7:11 utc | 202
In this morning’s video, Dima suggests the US have shut down all Patriot systems in Ukraine until they can figure out what went wrong…
God giveth, and God taketh away.
Ukraine and others may want to think about what NATO-support is worth it it can be withdrawn without notice , even in the middle of a battle.
Posted by: Marvin | May 18 2023 9:05 utc | 216
A night at the movies, maybe Henry Kissinger should buy a ticket and watch.
From Berlin to Maidan / (https://t.me/documentaryplanet/599) 2023
‘We must also understand that there’s a major sponsor of this Nazism spirit in Ukraine and it’s not the Ukrainians, it’s the CIA. They’ve done it for a long time,’ says Christoph Hörstel, Politician and Head of the ‘Deutsche Mitte’ Party in Germany. Over eight decades after the end of World War II, Ukraine has morphed into a country in which Nazism rears its ugly head. The documentary takes a look at the genesis of this phenomenon and it’s likely outcome.
link: https://t.me/two_majors/7597
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 18 2023 9:05 utc | 217
⚡️🇷🇺 State tests of the new 2S43 Malva self-propelled artillery gun (SPG) on the BAZ-6010-027 chassis, equipped with the 152/47 gun 2A64, have been completed. …
…
Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 21:22 utc | 94
That looks like a good system in its own way but the absolutely guaranteed future of gun artillery is that anyone who fires it can expect to be covered in return fire before they can realistically hide. Cheap microphone drones running loops well behind the front line can triangulate a gun nearly immediately and with enough precision to dispatch area weapons or self-guiding counter-battery munitions.
There’s no getting away from the fact that the guns are expensive and conspicuous.
There’s a video of Ukrainian forces firing artillery rockets from what appear to be three-round launch tubes mounted on the back of modified SUVs …. the rocket artillery version of ISIS “technicals”.
I can’t find it now to repost it but that is the way things are going and I hate to say it but UA is already doing it and gaining experience with dispersed, low cost, highly mobile rocket artillery while RF is trying to adapt large, expensive guns to the increasing counter-battery risk.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 18 2023 9:09 utc | 218
uncle tungsten | May 18 2023 9:05 utc | 225
“there’s a major sponsor of this Nazism spirit in Ukraine and it’s not the Ukrainians, it’s the CIA.”
No shit sherlock.
Cheers man, you do good work.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 18 2023 9:11 utc | 219
Posted by: whirlX | May 17 2023 22:29 utc | 128
Thanks for the response and perspective, much appreciated.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 18 2023 9:13 utc | 220
Marvin #9:05 utc | 224
“the US have shut down all Patriot systems in Ukraine until they can figure out what went wrong…”
On the control panel there is a key slot surrounded by green paint and the word ON. If you insert the key and turn it the radar starts up and the missiles ARRIVE at speed a few minutes later.
It IS rocket science (for dummies)
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 18 2023 9:14 utc | 221
Some 81 million ‘merican fools voted in an old senile man in 2020 to make the world a worse place. Why vote in a practically dead man…?!
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 9:25 utc | 222
uncle tungsten | May 18 2023 9:14 utc | 229
rocket science (for dummies)
Your terminology is somewhat less uncouth than mine.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 18 2023 9:26 utc | 223
anon2020 | May 18 2023 9:09 utc | 226
>ISIS. “Technicals” in Ukraine.
Probably the “Vampires” the U$ did a media release about last year:
My post from Oct 2022:
……Vampire to transform Ukraine pickups into deadly missile launchers Aug 25
@DefenceU. Ukraine government organization
Ukrainian MLRS Vampire aren’t afraid of sunlight. They are not afraid of anybody; they’re just doing their job.
Footage by the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade of the #UAarmy
https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1546509623406039040?s=21&t=6-_Pj6O5RBv_ZIF11UGGvA[Write the outrage headline now 3-2-1:]🛻 [next wonder weapon to deploy to Ukraine… single-person rocket launcher, fixed to the back of a civilian pickup!] [ISIS redux!]
https://www.defensenews.com/newsletters/2022/08/25/vampire-to-transform-ukraine-pickups-into-deadly-missile-launchers/
WASHINGTON — The U.S. is sending Ukraine “Vampire” kits that transform pickup trucks and other non-tactical vehicles into highly portable missile launchers.
As part of a $3 billion package for Ukraine that the Pentagon announced Wednesday, the Vehicle-Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment system is a portable kit that can be installed on most vehicles with a cargo bed for launching the Advanced Precision Kill Weapons System or other laser-guided munitions.
The L3Harris-made weapon ― a small, four-barreled rocket launcher and sensor ball ― can be mounted in two hours and operated by a single person, the company said.
It can be equipped with missiles to hit ground or air targets including unmanned aircraft systems.
“The Vampire system itself is a counter-UAS system, ” said Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, said at a press briefing Wednesday. “It is a kinetic system that uses small missiles essentially to shoot UAVs out of the sky.”
While the Vampire system isn’t advertised as a counter-drone weapon on L3Harris’ website, Ukraine has used similar munition-style weapons to take down drones throughout its conflict with Russia.
As the Russia conflict crosses the six-month mark, the most recent aid package is aimed at providing sustainable and affordable options to Ukraine.
Alongside the Vampire, the Pentagon is also sending Puma drones and a host of ammunition.
The Vampire is part of a larger package in aid to Ukraine, bringing the total amount supplied to the country during the Russia-Ukraine conflict to more than $13.5 billion since the start of the Biden administration.
The Biden administration selected the Vampire — a low-cost and easy-to-assemble weapon compared to other counter-drone measures, such as electronic warfare technologies — for a package advertised as providing supplies for Ukraine’s long-term needs.
“We’re trying to be very deliberate about what systems we think makes the most sense for Ukraine to have in that context, and it also matters very much: Can they sustain it? Can they afford it? [🤡] Because of course billions of dollars of international assistance may not be something 10 years from now or 20 years from now,” Kahl said.[🤔]
>…Footage published by the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on July 11, shows Ukraine using the Czech Republic’s RM-70 VAMPIR 122mm Multiple Launch Rocket Systems.
The Czech system, which is designed by Excalibur Army, looks similar to the the L3Harris’ weapon, with a rocket-launching system as the main feature.
Unlike the L3Harris system, the MLRS Vampire uses a large military vehicle rather than a simple pickup truck as its launching platform.
TO THE LAST UKRAINIAN!!
Posted by: Melaleuca | May 18 2023 9:55 utc | 224
It’s a paradox, but anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine has stopped growing and has begun to decline.
A source in expert circles states that in 2022, “anti-Russian hysteria and hatred” in Ukraine was at its peak, but is now rapidly declining, especially in the South-East.
It is clear that the situation has not fundamentally changed, but the trend itself threatens the policy of the Office of the President, which is trying in every possible way to stir up the hatred for the Russians that they managed to create in 2022.
Posted by: Down South | May 18 2023 10:08 utc | 225
Whether or not the Patriot battery was destroyed is a question for yesterday’s virologists to debate.
Ignat rightly said, the Patriot system is a group and area target. To “destroy” it you must kill 75% of components and people in the target area. No single Kinzhal in the usual, non-nuclear configuration can do this.
But kill just one critical component of the system – the radar or control station – and the battery becomes inoperative. Destroying the missiles, generators, radios, people, or launchers doesn’t have the same effect, as they are easily replaceable. Until a new radar or control station is rolled in, the battery will not be able to fire.
The enemy admitted the complex was damaged, which may mean these components were destroyed. And yes, these components do not explode spectacularly when hit, so the strike may not have been visually impressive but did not lack in practicality.
What took place can be seen in the video for which the khokhols are now hunting and repressing their fellow citizens.
The main thing is: the very best rockets (actually, 32 of them!) from the very best US Air Defense system were helpless against the Kinzhal. It occurs to me this was a deliberate test by our side, of Patriot capabilities.
Seeing as the Kinzhal targets preset coordinates, the exact location of the Patriot system and its critical components was well known by our side. This made it possible to coordinate simultaneous strikes on various targets, by various weapons from all directions (The Patriot does not see 360 degrees), with the Geranuiums, X-31s, Calibers and Daggers all arriving simultaneously, give or take a couple of seconds. In the end we saw the target being struck exactly where it needed to be, leading every specialist to conclude that in the Patriot vs Kinzhal battle, the Kinzhal won. And that is good…
#Source
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/46599
Posted by: Down South | May 18 2023 10:13 utc | 226
ref: images showing nearly intact Patriot System rockets.
I do wonder:
At the speeds they achieve ( especially in “loop back mode” )
I’d expect them to leave no recognizable fragments on impact.
Kinentic energy is significant.
(may be ) Different if they are spent and idle on. ( no self destruct? )
Posted by: MAKK | May 18 2023 10:13 utc | 227
Putin – at a meeting on agriculture: the Russian agro-industrial complex is showing positive dynamics. According to last year’s results, the index of agricultural production was 110.2%.
There was a record harvest of grain, almost 158 million tons. I do not know, there was no such thing in recent history. [It is a record. There was no such thing in the times of the RSFSR, and there was no such thing in Russia’s modern history.] I want to congratulate the agrarians, all the people who work in the countryside.
Note: Why do you think they extended the Grain Deal? It has to be sold, otherwise the oversupply of grain will start to break prices on the domestic market. Right, EU?
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/46615
Posted by: Down South | May 18 2023 10:15 utc | 228
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Artemovsk
1. The enemy will lose the last positions in the city before the end of the week – the average forecast now on both sides is 1-3 days. What remains of the Artemovsk garrison will crawl back to Krasnoye and Khromovo with losses in the coming days. The rest will remain in the city, since they have stopped taking prisoners there.
2. Since after the ousting of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Artemovsk, the fighting will continue in the fields to the west of the city, as well as in the Khromovo and Krasnoy regions, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to pretend that the “Bakhmut Fortress” is standing, after which, in 1-2 weeks, they will announce that “withdrew to more advantageous positions” and “in general, Bakhmut never mattered much.”
3. The current attacks to the north and south of the city are unlikely to lead to significant breakthroughs in the front, but tactical successes may allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to somewhat dampen the inevitable tantrums in Ukraine about the surrender of the Bakhmut Fortress.
4. In the middle of the day on May 18, the enemy continued to attack in the direction of Berkhovka and Kleshcheevka. There are intense battles. The enemy also continues to attack in the area of Sacco and Vanzetti. The village itself is held by our troops, the enemy is pressing from the northwest and north. Those reserves are now being used, which for a long time were collected in the area of Konstantinovka, Chasov Yar and Aleksandrovka.
5. With all the tactical troubles for us in the area of Bogdanovka, Kleshcheevka and Sacco and Vanzetti, the continuation of these attacks after the loss of Artemovsk by the enemy will allow, with competent command and control of the Russian Defense Ministry and the strengthening of the interaction of the RF Ministry of Defense with PMC “Wagner”, to grind part of the enemy’s operational reserves in Slavyansko-Kramatorsk direction, which will be of no small importance in subsequent battles to break through the defense line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Konstantinovka-Chasov Yar-Rai-Aleksandrovka, with the aim of a full-fledged entry into the Slavnya-Kramatorsk agglomeration. The fights here will also be heavy.
🔗Boris rozhin
Posted by: Down South | May 18 2023 10:17 utc | 229
[225]
Ernst Franz Sedgwick Hanfstaengl is a name to conjure with. US sponsored Nazism first time around so it is highly likely they would keep the bacillus alive.
Ford and others supported the Nazis…….
https://www.spiegel.de/geschichte/henry-ford-und-die-nazis-a-947358.html
Much of Nazi doctrine came from US – Eugenics was US mainstream in 1920s
Eradication of Native Indians was a playbook for Hitler’s approach to Slavs
US Hollywood Media was basis of Hugenberg and UfA propaganda for Hitler who travelled by airplane………..
VW was modelled on Model-T Ford as “People’s Car”
Use of Radio – same
So much of Nazi doctrine was simply copied from US and fashioned as Anti-Bolshevik which appealed to US business – after all in 1920s 2% US GDP was invested in Germany
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 18 2023 10:23 utc | 230
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | May 18 2023 8:49 utc | 220
Same vomit feeling here, just checked the list and out of curiosity I asked myself, any spaniards? Oh yes, an illustrious one, Solana the destroyer of Yugoslavia. On top of it everytime they talk about Hiroshima the USA never appears in the same paragraph, some aliens dropped the bomb, sickening.
Posted by: Paco | May 18 2023 10:24 utc | 231
Down South #10:08 utc | 233
It’s a paradox, but anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine has stopped growing and has begun to decline.
A source in expert circles states that in 2022, “anti-Russian hysteria and hatred” in Ukraine was at its peak, but is now rapidly declining, especially in the South-East.
Mass formation declines rapidly when vigorously opposed. The Ukraine people have been subjected to designed and vigorously executed propagandising since 2000 at least and the perpetrators are the fascist clique in UKUSAEU/NATO.
The unrelenting expansion of NATO will not happen unless the populace is made willing by fair means or foul. The NATO reversal is going to take some time and clearly the Russian Federation has strong local and international allies to see it through. First NATO has to be severely defeated and exposed as a paper tiger with little substance such that it will be seen to be an unsafe bet and an expensive failure.
Time will tell if the Russian Federation has the strength and staying power and sufficient unwavering allies to go the distance. IMO it will and solidarity will carry it to that achievement.
Mattias Desmet on mass formation – THE PSYCHOLOGY OF TOTALITARIANISM – A HEADWIND DOCUMENTARY: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HS5_uyTNpZs
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 18 2023 10:25 utc | 232
In response to anon2020@226,
While I agree with your main point, shoot-and-scoot tactics have demonstrated themselves to be quite effective at avoiding counter-battery fire in Ukraine. Even when it’s possible to pinpoint an enemy artillery system from its first shot and quickly relay targeting information — we may as well pretend that this process is instantaneous, though it obviously is not — there’s no way of shortening the flight-time of counter-battery munitions, which still gives the system minutes to gtfo. This obviously limits the usefulness of static artillery positions, but for systems with quick deployment time and high rate of fire it’s possible to lead the enemy on a wild goose-chase fairly regularly. This shoot-and-scoot fire-return-fire exchange in turn also serves the function of tying up potential artillery support during an assault, so that even a draw or loss in an artillery duel may in the end be beneficial if viewed in context of other front-line operations.
I think the Russians gave the French Caesar artillery a fairly good rating. Not that the design itself taught them anything they didn’t already know, but practical experience showed that it’s quite difficult to destroy these systems in an artillery duel and much less of a headache to deal with them in transit, which ultimately hinges on having air supremacy. They also managed, supposedly, to knock Caesar shells out in flight, but that relies on having well-positioned AA. So, it’s no surprise if they put more emphasis on analogous systems in the future than they did before this conflict — having an all-terrain vehicle artillery with 0 setup time and 7 rounds a minute capacity won’t be amiss.
One must also keep in mind that there must be options out there, if not now then certainly in the future, of spoofing artillery detection, be they sound- or seismic-based. It wouldn’t be something one would use with every round fired, but for critical make-or-break moments it’s a good ace to have up your sleeve. Ukraine quickly blew their wad for no good strategic reason when they learned that they could spoof Russian radars by making double-launches of rocket artillery look like a single signature and now that cat is out of the bag and doesn’t confuse Russian AA, but for a brief period they could guarantee air cover penetration for at least half their payload. Nobody with half a brain would use such an opportunity to target a kiosk in downtown Donetsk as they did, but presumably this was ground-crew innovation and they simply didn’t realize what they had until it was too late.
As for Ukrainian Jihad-mobiles, their only advantage is that they are dirt cheap — essentially hobbyist creations. If they survive long enough to be taken out by a Russian munition, that’s already a win, since it means they managed to cause enough of a nuisance to warrant any attention. But they are just as likely to break down from the first salvo fired, which either does no damage or completely misses its target, or shake apart in transit. I think it’s a stretch to say that they are some sort of prototype for the future of modern artillery or vehicle combat, but they are a mainstay in any conflict where one side is running out of military equipment and has to plug the gap with civilian conversions.
Posted by: Skiffer | May 18 2023 10:27 utc | 233
Peter AU1 #9:11 utc | 227
Thank you for your solidarity here as well.
These are exciting times and full of promise for a better future.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 18 2023 10:30 utc | 234
Once the AA systems are disabled, it would quite hard to stop the Russian war planes flying across the Ukraine.
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 10:32 utc | 235
Kiev is taking it left, right and centre. This is because Russians found out that 6 US patriot batteries are just duds. Don’t let it up. Go after all NATO taxpayer funded donations. That will plunge NATO deeper into debt. Their taxpayers can’t take it anymore. They will revolt. It will be Bastille Day across the Atlantic soon.
Russia should restart its biological weapons program as NATO and Ukraine plan to use depleted Uranium against Russian civilians. That should deter further insanity.
Posted by: Jason | May 18 2023 10:51 utc | 236
They will revolt.
Posted by: Jason | May 18 2023 10:51 utc | 244
—
Doubt. The citizens will be reduced to penury. Their economic output will be insufficient to sustain the war.
Posted by: too scents | May 18 2023 10:57 utc | 237
Down South #10:17 utc | 237
With all the tactical troubles for us in the area of Bogdanovka, Kleshcheevka and Sacco and Vanzetti, the continuation of these attacks after the loss of Artemovsk by the enemy will allow, with competent command and control of the Russian Defense Ministry and the strengthening of the interaction of the RF Ministry of Defense with PMC “Wagner”, to grind part of the enemy’s operational reserves in Slavyansko-Kramatorsk direction, which will be of no small importance in subsequent battles to break through the defense line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Konstantinovka-Chasov Yar-Rai-Aleksandrovka, with the aim of a full-fledged entry into the Slavnya-Kramatorsk agglomeration. The fights here will also be heavy.
Thank you Down South once again for your reports.
This paragraph above is of significance. The Russian Army emerged from decades of downsizing, demoralisation and dismantling to take on the nazi forces and the entire NATO mendacity arraigned against them.
The Russian Army was no unstoppable force as I initially thought but it has miraculously carried the day so far. At great cost. It has reinvented itself on the run and has had to do so at times in the glare of some very pointed and harsh criticism.
Quiet criticism is not usual in these circumstances of direct warfare but the openness and public nature has been an extraordinary look. They took it on the chin, adjusted the command structure, reshaped the battlefield, reconstructed the responsive chain of command and delivered the goods it seems. Then inexorably wound up the pressure.
One hell of an army with a collage of highly public and identifiable force structures and a quasi ‘private’ Wagner group – but all one and all together in solidarity for the goal.
Now that takes maturity, discipline, secure and trusted chain of command and above all an un-shakeable confidence in purpose and respect for key commanding officers and players. Their President, Minister, military command and the advocate from the Wagner group – Pregozhin. All united yet bold enough to make the machinery work on the run and retain soldier’s and the nation’s confidence. No doubt there were heated discussions and yet problems resolved by professional leaders respecting professional soldiers and moving on.
They are legion.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 18 2023 10:58 utc | 238
@ uncle tungsten | 222
“On topic of radio beacons: perhaps such a tell tale could have been added to the pallets at many points along the logistics trail..”
Look at it from the perspective of Milo Minderbinder..
Gift the arty shells to Ukraine.
Russia pays for radio beacon tracking information to destroy the shipment on delivery.
Claim back the cost of the weapons shipment through NATO financing
What’s good for the syndicate is good for the country.. and everybody has a share
Posted by: Rattus | May 18 2023 11:09 utc | 239
French Comedian ridicules the Comedian on French TV as a ‘travelling circus’.
Ukraine not amused …. French panelists in stitches laughing …
‘A travelling circus’: Ukraine fumes after French TV ridicules Zelensky’s Europe tour | Watch [3 mins]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3PwtwQvGXc
re my #201 Dima returned ….
Posted by: Don Firineach | May 18 2023 11:09 utc | 240
Re: Posted by: mo3.1 | May 17 2023 21:50 utc | 106
Is there a chance for Poland and the Baltics to force Ukraine into peace talks?
Laughable! No. These are not independent actors – they can’t force Ukraine to pop a paper bag.
Posted by: Julian | May 18 2023 11:11 utc | 241
🇬🇧UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace would be happy to become the new Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance. He expressed his opinion on Thursday to the German agency DPA.
“I’ve always said it’s a good job. This is a job that I would like,” Wallace said. “So, being NATO Secretary General would be a fantastic job, and the alliance is extremely important for our common security. I would be happy to contribute to ensuring that you can sleep peacefully at night,” said the head of the United Kingdom Defense Ministry.
At the same time, Wallace made it clear that his current position also satisfies him.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/63667
Posted by: Down South | May 18 2023 11:17 utc | 242
The head of the GUR, Budanov, confirmed our old insiders that some of the bombings of media people in Russia were the work of agents of the GUR.
The Crimean bridge is the work of the GUR. Even though they don’t talk about it publicly. An attempted terrorist attack in the PMR is also the development of the GUR.
Back in 2022, we insided that the Office of the President, the Main Intelligence Directorate and the Security Service of Ukraine were implementing the tactics of “controlled terror” on the territory controlled by the Russian Federation, and only after that they began to organize “sabotage attacks” in Russia itself with the elimination of famous personalities, calling it the tactics of “thousands of cuts” “. The British help them with this.
This revelation of Budanov is due to the fact that he is aiming for a political career, as Zelensky’s successor, when the Ukrainian crisis stagnates, and the security forces begin to consolidate their power with the help of Western lobbies who want to replace the Ze-clan with their more accommodating guys.
Budanov takes part of the PR from Ze image of the “hero”.
Our source reports that a tacit struggle continues between the GUR and the SBU. These two offices do not like each other very much. Budanov is purely the interests of the Western lobby, and the SBU is ZeErmak.
Many in the OP and SBU did not like the last interview of the Head of the GUR Budanov, as everyone saw that Kirill was pulling the blanket over himself and was only promoting himself, creating the image of a hero for himself.
The Presidential Office issued a decree through social networks to disperse Budanov’s old forecasts that Crimea would be returned before the end of spring 2023. Also remember all his brilliant predictions. Purpose, discrediting Budanov.
Posted by: Down South | May 18 2023 11:22 utc | 243
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 18 2023 10:58 utc | 246
No problem
Posted by: Down South | May 18 2023 11:22 utc | 244
@ Julian | May 18 2023 11:11 utc | 249
Stipulated. So….If there’s *any* truth here, They Might Be Sock Puppets? 😉
Posted by: natokraine | May 18 2023 11:23 utc | 245
Anatomy of MIM-104 Patriot Destruction + Primer on Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile
“>https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-mim-104-patriot-destruction?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Posted by: morongobill | May 18 2023 1:11 utc | 158
Many thanks for that link morongobill. It sheds a lot of light on the topic for me. On Apr 16 Zet posted a partial video of the destruction of a Ukrainian team at the Kievan mall which Zet claimed was a Khinzal (the article contains a link to the full video including the launch site). I disputed the claim but according to the article, although it wasn’t the Khinzal it was the very closely related Iskander. Prior to Zet’s post I had seen it, forgotten it and I hadn’t even considered it as anything other than a conventional strike. Kudos to Zet (learning as I go)
Also interestingly (for me) it rubbished the one vid I saw which I thought was a Khinzal and which had me fooled at the time.
Additionally it put into context a lot of what I’ve read on MoA regarding Khinzals and hypersonics over the last 2-3 days, refuting some posts and strengthening others … a recommended read.
Appreciated.
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | May 18 2023 11:30 utc | 246
Anyone had seen a Kinzhal flying in? Or, even debris from it, after the hit?
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 11:34 utc | 247
@ Down South | May 18 2023 10:08 utc | 233
>> It’s a paradox, but anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine has stopped growing and has begun to decline.
Let us hope that’s true.
If it is, perhaps because Russia focused primarily on securing the pro-Russian lands while avoiding widespread destruction of western lands except in proportion to Natzo escalation and terrorism. It makes Russians look less as aggressors and more as reasonable defenders.
This wouldn’t have happened had Russia chosen a “quick, overwhelming response” some here have suggested, though I concede this is all just a guessing game and the war is still “young”.
Posted by: natokraine | May 18 2023 11:37 utc | 248
Richard Steven Hack | May 18 2023 4:11 utc | 183
I also wondered how they were set up regarding data reticulation.
Ideally, one would be using fibre in a loop topology which would give you redundancy and more separation between system components. From memory, the loop would max out at about 1.5 km.
Copper reticulation would possibly be only good for 100 ish meter runs which lends weights to your star topology scenario.
Posted by: auximenes | May 18 2023 11:45 utc | 249
“Ukraine’s counteroffensive is confusing. That may be the plan” — says CNN
That fellow, Nick Paton Walsh, who writes this kind of BS for CNN is supposed to be an award-winning “reporter”…
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 11:46 utc | 250
“Ukraine’s counteroffensive is confusing. That may be the plan” — says CNN
That fellow, Nick Paton Walsh, who writes this kind of BS for CNN is supposed to be an award-winning “reporter”…
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 11:46 utc | 258
He has some serious heavyweight competition …
Russia hits Ukraine’s capital Kyiv with ninth wave of missile attacks this month – BBC News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNjdXZ7x0iY
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | May 18 2023 11:56 utc | 251
So having read Simplicius’ latest substack, at long last I see where Ukraine came up with the “6 kinzhals shot down” ludicrous claim. Assuming Kinzhal is similar to Iskander, it has then 6 small rocket decoys that are used after re-entry, when it comes close to hitting the target. Odds are that the Patriot focused on those, and they can indeed claim to have intercepted 6 missiles. Except those were just decoys, not genuine incoming Kinzhals, but I wouldn’t be surprised if their signature, coupled with jamming devices of the decoys, appeared actually very close to the electronic signature of a Kinzhal. It also means that most probably they only noticed the 1st Kinzhal, and then their radars were so saturated they barely could see the 2nd one.
Good Russian tactic as well, a Patriot system is quite big and spread out with 8 launchers and radar station. Destroying the latter is the key goal, so it’s wiser to send 2 Kinzhals, to double the odds of actually hitting the radar and not just a couple of launchers.
Last, considering Ukraine (and NATO) is confused by the EW and decoys used in Kinzhals and Iskanders, they might genuinely have thought Russian was running out of top-level missiles because they actually assumed Russia was launching bigger waves, and the bulk of these were intercepted. If they truly assumed intercepted decoys were true hypersonic missiles, then indeed they would think that Russia already depleted her missile stocks and would soon have to stop such raids. With that recent missile wave, the smarter NATO analysts might at long last figure out that Russia still has plenty of missiles because they overcounted them by 3 until now. At this point, the realization that Ukraine is screwed should slowly make its way to the top military, and possibly one day to political leadership. One can only hope.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | May 18 2023 12:08 utc | 252
ostro @ 255
At Mach 12 there won’t be much to see. If there were a camera right at the target pointed straight up and that camera was livestreaming imaginably the last fraction of a second could be visible.
Same for debris. It will be dust and/or blown over such a large area it won’t be easily found. Still have not read a good explanation of the plasma wall effect. Discussion tends to focus on raw kinetic energy. From what we are told there are explosives in the warhead. Discussion of a hypersonic explosion has not been seen by this commenter. Attempt to raise the point and watch the non sequiturs fly.
Posted by: oldhippie | May 18 2023 12:12 utc | 253
Don Firineach no. 248
Travelling circus – certainly enough “elephants” in the room to make a circus.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | May 18 2023 12:16 utc | 254
oldhippie | May 18 2023 12:12 utc | 261
At Mach 12 there won’t be much to see
Apart from a white hot plasma trail?
Posted by: ChatNPC | May 18 2023 12:18 utc | 255
@oldhippie
Exactly!
No one can see it coming. If a Kinzhal is launched 2000kms away, it takes about 8 minutes to reach the target, but the Mig 31K doesn’t have to launch it that far away, maybe about 200-300Kms away from the target, so it would be less than 2 mins.
Have you seen that Klichko holding some tube to show a “downed” Kinzhal? Those, who had met with a Kinzhal had moved out of this world!
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 12:21 utc | 256
The exceptional leader of the world is stopped by its equal. It can no longer hide behind fake exceptionalism. It will have to back down, face its wrong behavior and work on its mindset. More on ‘How American exceptionalism is leading the world to the abyss’
https://geopolitiekincontext.wordpress.com/2023/05/18/hoe-amerikaans-exceptionalisme-de-wereld-naar-de-afgrond-leidt/
Posted by: Paul-Robert | May 18 2023 12:23 utc | 257
Some essential and sobering reading on a possible next step in the Ukraine war: ‘Why Putin Will Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine’, by brig. gen. Kevin Ryan, former US military attache in Moscow:
https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/why-putin-will-use-nuclear-weapons-ukraine
Posted by: Paul-Robert | May 18 2023 12:27 utc | 258
Posted by: oldhippie | 261
“Still have not read a good explanation of the plasma wall effect.”
Think of Space Shuttle or Apollo re-entry.. There’s a total radio communications blackout as the craft hits the atmosphere and the heatshield ablates & vaporises into a plasma, that will also act to distort and mute any externally reflected radio (radar) return waves
Posted by: Rattus | May 18 2023 12:28 utc | 259
The head of the Ukrainian mission to NATO admitted that the allies are putting strong pressure on Kiev, demanding the launch of a counter-offensive.
“Now we are telling our international partners: be patient, don’t push us too hard”.
https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1659174594392072196
I think everyone agrees, Ukraine should attack ASAP.
Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2023 12:33 utc | 260
It actually takes few seconds (~8s), considering the speed, if the Kinzhal is launched ~200kms away!
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 12:37 utc | 261
Anyone had seen a Kinzhal flying in? Or, even debris from it, after the hit?
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 11:34 utc | 255
Here, you can view the downed Kinzhal in detail up-close. Odd, I’d expect less Lada & toaster parts.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/PufVQOmk84TK/
Posted by: NJH | May 18 2023 12:39 utc | 262
Have you read the other part of my post? About that Klichko?
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 12:43 utc | 263
US/NATO/EU might want to create another “38 parallel” as between two Korea in the Ukraine, but that won’t happen. Kiev city and oblast will have to come under Russia when the war ends…
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 12:52 utc | 264
@Paul Greenwood 218
cool, thx!
German Foreign Office btw has no problem – at least publicly – with UK delivering DU-ammo.
see German language article:
https://www.nachdenkseiten.de/?p=97928
The official parliamentary Q&A is here:
https://dserver.bundestag.de/btd/20/067/2006742.pdf
It contains among others following brief and highly cynical answer:
“(…)
This compound of ammunition with depleted uranium produced by Russia as a “nuclear component” is rejected by the German government in no uncertain terms. The German government is in close exchange with partners and allies regarding support for Ukraine, but does not comment publicly on the content of these discussions.
(…)”
other questions included:
“(…)
Is the German government aware of other NATO member states – apart from Great Britain and Italy – in which soldiers have received compensation payments due to the use of uranium munitions?
(…)
Does the German government have its own or external intelligence (including intelligence) that Russia is using or plans to use uranium munitions in the Ukraine war?
(…)”
Both answered with: No.
Posted by: AG | May 18 2023 12:53 utc | 265
About that DU …
https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1659171022434627584/pu/vid/1280×720/9UjpJVsy6n783ExP.mp4
Posted by: too scents | May 18 2023 12:59 utc | 266
In the West, they began to discuss the format of freezing the war in Ukraine for many years. It is reported by Politico with reference to US officials.
Options discussed in the Biden administration for a long-term “freeze” include where to establish potential borders that Ukraine and Russia would agree not to cross, but which should not be official borders.
This scenario may turn out to be the most realistic in the long run, given that neither Kyiv nor Moscow is inclined to ever admit defeat.
It is becoming increasingly likely amid a growing sense in the Biden administration that the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive will not deal a decisive blow to Russia.
A frozen conflict in which hostilities are suspended but neither side is declared victorious or agrees to an official end to the war could also be a politically acceptable long-term outcome for the United States and other countries backing Ukraine.
In other words, Western countries are not interested in ending the war, but are striving to create a permanent zone of instability in Eastern Europe, pursuing the goal of turning Ukraine into a permanent irritant of the Russian Federation.
The problem is that such a prospect is not in the interests of either Kyiv or Moscow.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17854
Posted by: Down South | May 18 2023 12:59 utc | 267
Kissinger: for the safety of Europe, get Ukraine into NATO.
This statement by Kissinger seems a trial balloon for fast-tracking Ukraine NATO membership.. The assumption appears to be that Russia would not dare attack Ukraine once Ukraine belongs to NATO, because an attack on one NATO country triggers a response from all NATO countries.
In practice, little would change. Remember that when Russia signed a mutual defense treaty with Donbass and Lugansk, Ukraine didn’t stop bombing either.
Posted by: Passerby | May 18 2023 13:07 utc | 268
Ostro no. 255
“Sly” news have a photo of a missile in someone’s back garden. And they reported this:
“Ukrainians living in Kyiv are sleep-deprived and “very angry” following the ninth attack on the capital this month, an MP in the country has said.”
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | May 18 2023 13:17 utc | 269
@ Passerby | May 18 2023 13:07 utc | 276
—
The Nation is also running a Kissinger retrospective on his anniversary.
Henry Kissinger, War Criminal — Still at Large at 100
We now know a great deal about the crimes he committed while in office, from helping Nixon derail the Paris Peace Talks and prolong the Vietnam War to green-lighting the invasion of Cambodia and Pinochet’s coup in Chile. But we know little about his four decades with Kissinger Associates.
By Greg GrandinTwitter
May 15, 2023
https://www.thenation.com/article/world/kissinger-100-crimes-watergate/
Posted by: too scents | May 18 2023 13:19 utc | 270
At Mach 12 there won’t be much to see. If there were a camera right at the target pointed straight up and that camera was livestreaming imaginably the last fraction of a second could be visible.
OldHippie #261
Even subsonic, nothing to see there and after…..😉
If this was a 757, how many frames have been lost ?
If we assume that the 757 was about full speed, 900 km/h, or 250 m/s, the necessary time to fly over 85 m is 340 ms. This means that three frames have been lost. There is, obviously, a total lack of chance to loose the three frames of this video on which the 757 could be seen, crossing majestuously the space beetween the yellow cabinet and the pentagon, and crashing itself on the wall of the pentagon !
Why it can’t be a 757
Thierry Meyssan first emited this “missing 757” theory in his book “L’effroyable imposture”, followed by Pentagate.
Posted by: La Bastille | May 18 2023 13:24 utc | 271
ostro | May 18 2023 10:32 utc | 243
I’ve noticed for the last year that Russia are very leery of sending planes far beyond the front lines even before the new NATO wunderwaffen – I imagine there’s good reason for that.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 18 2023 13:32 utc | 272
@ La Bastille | May 18 2023 13:24 utc | 279
A 757 could not be seen because it was a cruise missile, and because a 757 is unable to fold in its wings and creep into a tiny hole on the wall. I remember the original article “The Missing Wings” (still available on the net 20 years later).
Posted by: Norwegian | May 18 2023 13:34 utc | 273
Posted by: Melaleuca | May 18 2023 9:55 utc | 232
Good find but it wasn’t either of those (the Czech RM-70 Vampir or the L3Harris VAMPIRE truck kit).
What I saw was a pickup truck modification with (IIRC) three tubes side-by-side, probably 120mm rocket caliber but maybe the 220mm caliber.
Looked like three launch tubes on tilt-rotate mount, bolted to the hardpoint of a pickup truck with the pickup bed removed. Kinda like the following but with more tubes and a sturdier pivot mount.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM-21_Grad#/media/File%3AGrad-P-batey-haosef-2.jpg
Here’s a very similar thing from way back in June 2022 so it’s been going on for a while.
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/why-mad-max-style-technicals-have-become-a-staple-of-ukraines-fight-against-russia/
In some respects those 120mm Grad rockets are the most interesting rocket system out there because they are by far the cheapest and simplest. Supposedly $1000 per rocket., 70kg so two guys can easily man-handle them (no special equipment or transportation), max 40km range. Cheap enough to use like mortar rounds but lack of precision prevents that.
The Grad MLRS is a system screaming out for a cheap precision guidance upgrade like APKWS … a cheapo laser seeker would be a enormous improvement as it would allow single rockets to be dropped exactly on individual targets from standoff range, assuming drone target spotting.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 18 2023 13:37 utc | 274
Posted by: Paul-Robert | May 18 2023 12:27 utc | 266
lol. Tripe – thanks for the time waste.
Posted by: irish al | May 18 2023 13:38 utc | 275
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 18 2023 13:32 utc | 280
It might have something to do with NATO AWACS planes and remaining behind Russian jamming systems
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 18 2023 13:44 utc | 276
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 12:52 utc | 272
Really ? That has worked well – Pyongyang builds nukes and Seoul has permanent war production which is why they have supplies for Ukraine and Poland………
Maybe the Vietnam situation is more apt – Americans turn tail and run and the border disappears leaving a reunited Vietnam ?
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 18 2023 13:46 utc | 277
Ukraine could join ranks of ‘frozen’ conflicts, U.S. officials say
How Ukraine could become the next South Korea.
-Politico
The US “thinks” that it controls the situation, but had sort of forgot that the SMO is to denazify and demilitarise the Ukraine…and, on the way to denazify and demilitarise the NATO…
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 13:48 utc | 278
[276]
The assumption appears to be that Russia would not dare attack Ukraine once Ukraine belongs to NATO
You are bonkers of course !!! Ukraine is de facto in NATO that is why it is being destroyed.
NO NATO country has EVER received the weapons supplies or funds Ukraine receives. It has received more than the entire Marshall Aid Program at current prices !!!!
Read the NATO Charter – Article 5 – it has no automatic defence clause,
When US invaded Iraq and Turkey wanted guarantees should Iraq fire anything at them – Germany balked and refused to consider Art 5 protection for Turkey.
Art 5 of NATO Charter is like Homeowner’s Insurance – makes you feel so secure until you try to claim – Exclusion Clauses and Stonewalling are the reality.
NO NATION – not even USA is going to risk nuclear wipeout for a slag heap in Ukraine. Not even sure US would risk it for Israel. It is all Windbaggery.
When a honeybee stings, it dies a gruesome death. The bee’s stinger is structured in such a way that once it punctures human skin, the bee can’t yank it out without self-amputating. As the honeybee tries to pull out the stinger, it ruptures its lower abdomen, leaving the stinger embedded, pulling out instead a string of digestive material, muscles, glands and a venom sac. What results is a gaping hole at the end of the abdomen.
That is what faces the USA
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 18 2023 13:53 utc | 279
If we’re talking about the 9/11 Pentagon attack ther was a car park security camera that cought the momment of impact. spanning an area perhaps 100m infront of that door way. Both moving film and frozen film. That was no plane that was clearly a cruse missile. Quite impressive targeting.
They should put it in the sales brochure. Oh wait.
Posted by: Mark2 | May 18 2023 13:55 utc | 280
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 9:25 utc | 230
Some 81 million ‘merican fools voted in an old senile man in 2020 to make the world a worse place. Why vote in a practically dead man…?!
————–
If Trumpster wasn’t such an Isreal suck ass with a hard on for Iran he may have won. Between the two buckets of shit Russia got Biden.
Posted by: John2007 | May 18 2023 14:00 utc | 281
Between the two buckets of shit Russia got Biden.
Posted by: John2007 | May 18 2023 14:00 utc | 289
It is still only fools will vote in a dead man walking…
By the way, Russia doesn’t give a damn, if it is Biden, Trump or Kamala…
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 14:07 utc | 283
anon2020 @ 202
No link for you. Along the way I have seen a couple of small snippets about guidance being added to Grad rockets. If these experiments had been successful it would be in production and we’d presumably have heard of it. Great minds think alike. Your idea is in progress.
Posted by: oldhippie | May 18 2023 14:10 utc | 284
@Passerby 276
thx 4 info
may be, perhaps, someone, could, possibly supply the paywalled txt? its the transcript…
https://www.economist.com/kissinger-transcript
or give the major “take-aways”
(if someone says Economist makes no sense, well I couldn´t argue with that of course)
Posted by: AG | May 18 2023 14:14 utc | 285
The gift that the Americans, Germans and British have given the Ukrainians is certainly going to test the thesis/idea that the USSR only survived and won because of Lend Lease. In German “Gift” means poison of course.
Posted by: Wokechoke | May 18 2023 14:21 utc | 286
I suppose, the hits at strategic points in the Ukraine is going to continue today evening too and in the morning hours…until all that foreign “armament” is destroyed…
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 14:30 utc | 287
Thomas G Franklin #165
Nice, need an Anthem, bring back memory when ‘hear’ future. Poncho I add to mission
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QU5njtLyPIY&pp=ygUOZ2lnYSBjYXQgc2lnbWE%3D
too scents #200, jepordizing all the enchiladas and tortilla factories
Posted by: Miguel | May 18 2023 14:35 utc | 288
this NATO issue is the most dangerous of all.
If one might agree on the fact, that an accidental, a nuclear misunderstanding, is the biggest threat we face.
Perhaps this is one reason for 2 memos going public the same day, by priviledged folks,
“joint statement coordinated by the European Leadership Network and the Asia Pacific Leadership Network”
on disarmament
https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/group-statement/protecting-nuclear-arms-control-is-a-global-imperative/
Sure, it is what it is, there is one paragraph:
“We have many different views on the rights and wrongs of current geopolitical competition. But we all agree that it is long past time to start prioritising nuclear arms control and taking unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral actions.”
(RU AND Western diplomats signing the same memo…)
And this memo just the same day, by
Eisenhower Media Network
https://eisenhowermedianetwork.org/russia-ukraine-war-peace/
first phrase
”
The Russia-Ukraine War has been an unmitigated disaster. Hundreds of thousands have been killed or wounded. Millions have been displaced. Environmental and economic destruction have been incalculable. Future devastation could be exponentially greater as nuclear powers creep ever closer toward open war.”
and going on
“Seeing the War Through Russia’s Eyes
Our attempt at understanding the Russian perspective on their war does not endorse the invasion and occupation, nor does it imply the Russians had no other option but this war.
Yet, just as Russia had other options, so too did the U.S. and NATO leading up to this moment.
The Russians made their red lines clear. In Georgia and Syria, they proved they would use force to defend those lines. In 2014, their immediate seizure of Crimea and their support of Donbas separatists demonstrated they were serious in their commitment to defending their interests. Why this was not understood by U.S. and NATO leadership is unclear; incompetence, arrogance, cynicism, or a treacherous mixture of all three are likely contributing factors.”
with some maps etc.
Just as a detour into the diplomatic worlds of former VIPs
* * *
I doubt Kissinger would act in any coordinated whatever as of now.
But certainly the NATO thingy could very well be the major idea to push this war.
Since everyone at the table knows what the real red lines are.
Not Donbas for sure.
US NAVY SSBNs don´t sneak up in Lugansk after all.
And those 120+ warheads on each Ohio-Class are the real deal here in coordination with the other “stuff”…
(That´s why Moscow had suggested a nuclear free Europe just 18 months ago.
Fuck…)
well my 2cents…
Posted by: AG | May 18 2023 14:39 utc | 289
Neofeuedalfuture@17 Ya Russia sould adopt anti human tactics like the blue and yello minion. Haha tell us u missed a huge part of the SMO’s point. Withouttelling us u have.
Posted by: Tannenhouser | May 18 2023 14:40 utc | 290
Posted by: Skiffer | May 18 2023 10:27 utc | 241
I basically agree with everything you say except that I don’t see any reason why the response time and precision of counter-battery fire can’t be improved to the point where big expensive guns are unable to survive for long enough to be economical. Flight time of gun artillery is approx 75s (21km), rocket artillery 1..2min (20..40km).
It is simply a matter of the cost and giveaway firing signature of gun artillery systems. If they can be located quickly, then, for example, a salvo of rocket artillery can cover their position with anti-armour submunitions for the purposes of immobilisation and afterwards a surveillance drone can mossy on over to see if it’s worth dropping a few Gerans on what’s left.
One thing I read that might help is that artillery guns could fire simultaneously to make it harder to determine a true origin from audio / seismic data. I don’t know how well this would work in practice or in different operational situations and it certainly wouldn’t prevent detection by optical, IR or radar. Fitting artillery pieces with active defense systems is plausible but simply ups the cost & complexity of the whole assemblage and is it going to save them from a hail of submunitions?
UA is using M777 for mobility and rapid relocation but they are still expensive and just a way to put explosives on a distant target. Artillery rockets are as good in most respects, better in some, and supreme in how low the cost of their launch vehicle can be (ok, drones often don’t need any launch vehicle at all).
You are right that it is a stretch to suggest that mangled pickups are going to replace robust, frontline artillery systems but stealth, dispersal, high mobility and low cost is the only practical response to pervasive battlefield surveillance and cheap, long range weapons. Trashy pickups at least do that, gun artillery is at an enormous disadvantage on all those counts.
I believe that uncontroversial improvements in counter-battery precision and response time will translate those disadvantages into greatly reduced survivability, undermining the economics of high value gun artillery systems.
I might be wrong but I actually think this is a pretty obvious conclusion given the cost and unavoidable firing signature of big gun artillery.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 18 2023 14:52 utc | 291
Posted by: Featherless | May 17 2023 21:35 utc | 101
This post was not by me. GRRR…
Posted by: Featherless | May 18 2023 15:02 utc | 292
Posted by: oldhippie | May 18 2023 14:10 utc | 292
Too kind =)
There are a couple of different manufacturers that produce new 120mm Grad-caliber rockets with one or more of inertial, satellite or laser guidance. Here’s one:
https://www.roketsan.com.tr/en/products/trg-122-guided-rocket
https://www.roketsan.com.tr/en/products/trlg-122-laser-guided-missile
What I haven’t seen is anything that is a retrofit for existing missile stock, of which RF presumably has biblical quantities, and at-cost production capacity. A laser-only upgrade kit wouldn’t even need the launcher to be upgraded, the missiles could be fired in the usual unguided ballistic manner to get them over the larger area where they can pick up the laser illumination … not perfect but very easy to deliver to existing crews and target spotters.
I suspect it has been overlooked so far for Grad precisely because it would be so effective and cost-effective, undercutting a whole range of overlapping “sales opportunities” … better to produce new rockets at much higher price.
Assuming you are bored and that reading about guidance upgrades for existing weapons would in some way reduce your level of boredom, there is this long’ish but informative article:
https://www.revistaejercitos.com/2021/06/20/fgk-programme-fuze-guidance-kit/
Posted by: anon2020 | May 18 2023 15:32 utc | 293
The africans will offer zelinski asylum as he won’t be safe anywhere in the world anymore.
Posted by: Virgile | May 18 2023 15:33 utc | 294
Posted by: AG | May 18 2023 14:14 utc | 293
“may be, perhaps, someone, could, possibly supply the paywalled txt? its the transcript…
“>https://www.economist.com/kissinger-transcript
Archive.is is your friend, I looked for it there and someone had copied it.
https://archive.is/yaBWE
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 18 2023 15:34 utc | 295
Opinion published by Washington Post:
Why preparations for Ukraine’s counteroffensive have taken so long
NATO and the United States must also prepare to continue supporting Ukraine’s military indefinitely . All wars end in some type of political agreement, but Russia is unlikely to be satiated. And if the past is any guide, its commitments cannot be trusted. Even with a decimated military, Russia will attempt to rebuild, and Ukraine will remain vulnerable.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/05/15/ukraine-counteroffensive-timing-success/
So this seems wishful thinking of the military industrial Complex. Indefinite Source of money. But this is also how a society will be economically destroyed.
Posted by: Johnny | May 18 2023 15:55 utc | 296
Having fun with the Patriot system, Italo French Aster 30 SAMP/T is a next challenge for RF. Never used in a real war, also attached to it a very expensive missile cost. I doubt it’ll make RF go wow.
All this talk of the USA led initiative to freeze the conflict is a big nonsense. The only option I see there is capitulation. All other options are worse as once earmarked as agreement incapable is rendered unimportant as G7 so is NATO and so is Article 5 or whatever else coming from them. So no throwing the sand in the eyes helps there. RF knows it must finish the job. TINA.
Posted by: whirlX | May 18 2023 16:01 utc | 297
@ ostro, §272:
US/NATO/EU will have no say in where the parallel will be – or even if there´ll be one at all.
Russia will determine that.
My money is on the Russians reducing the Ukraine (and renaming it ´Chornarus´) to six oblasts: Kiev, Zhitomir, Xmelnitsky, Vinnitsa, Cherkassy and Yelizavetgrad. Russia will take all the rest east of the Dniester.
Galicia and Bessarabia will also be occupied but used as bargaining chips: Poland can have Galicia and Rumania can have Bessarabia if: (i) both leave NATO and demilitarize, i.e. no foreign troops. (ii) America is thrown out of NATO. (iii) US, UK & EU pay reparations, restore all Russian assets and, of course, end all hostile acts such as sanctions.
Posted by: John Marks | May 18 2023 16:04 utc | 298
anon2020 @ 301
Thank you for that. I only skimmed the longer article, will get back to it. Looks to me like they still need work on accuracy and cost. Yes, as the article notes Grad is an area weapon. To hit targets accuracy of 1 or 2 meters is needed. When that can be achieved worries about cost mostly go away. It could happen a battalion fired off 10 full salvos of Grad, 400 rockets, and the target is missed. Anybody still alive in general vicinity will have their head spinning, not as good as hitting the target.
Posted by: oldhippie | May 18 2023 16:08 utc | 299
Even with a decimated military, Russia will attempt to rebuild, and Ukraine will remain vulnerable.
Posted by: Johnny | May 18 2023 15:55 utc | 305
“Even with a decimated military…”
This is where the Americans are always foolish and overestimate themselves. The Russian military is not decimated and Russia had already rebuilt its military might to such a state that it can take on the whole US and the NATO…and win.
Posted by: ostro | May 18 2023 16:22 utc | 300