The 4 aircraft shoot downs are being blamed on manpad sabatouers. I’m guessing the jets were shot down doing glide bomb runs, been a lot of that in Briansk region. The jet must be an easy target going full speed straight up.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 13 2023 16:26 utc | 4

Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 16:20 utc | 3
Ukraine will now slowly start tightening the screws with all the equipment and training Russia allowed it to receive from NATO. Couple that with NATO vessels in the Black Sea if Erdogan loses and it will be very difficult for Russia to win.
They have allowed themselves to get to this point with weak response after weak response all the while NATO was taking over the Ukrainian army.
With cruise missiles targets on Crimea and within Russia will accelerate and at a given point Ukraine will have as much aerial firepower as Russia has. Any attach within Ukraine will be reciprocated in full on Russia.
I think this will then be the moment for peace where Russia will maybe have Crimea as a neutral territory and will be paying reparations for centuries.

Posted by: alek_a | May 13 2023 16:33 utc | 6

Posted by: Джошуа | May 13 2023 16:18 utc | 2
It definitely wasn’t manpads, and the aircraft would only be slowly and partially damaged, with enough time for someone at least to jump out with ejection seat. It was either air launched missile or air defense missile. Both are possible. Nato shouldn’t have AWACS coverage in the Bryansk region, unless they fly their AWACS planes in Ukraine which I doubt. That means that either their air defense radar would need to be active which makes them vulnerable (probably S-300), or Mig-29 has been integrated to carry western AA-missiles. They are probably flying very low.
Who delivered them information about proximity of planes in the Bryansk region if it wasn’t AWACS or air defense radar? DRG groups. Then that means the Ukro plane mut have been patrolling near the border, albeit probably flying very low.

Posted by: unimperator | May 13 2023 16:35 utc | 8

The head of PMC “Wagner” told where the Armed Forces of Ukraine would strike first of all during the counteroffensive
“To dispel the controversy surrounding the situation near Bakhmut, Yevgeny Prigozhin spoke about the current situation at the front and the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” the Wagner PMC press service said.
In his video, Prigozhin said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are delivering pinpoint strikes. And where it “breaks”, they send their reserves there for a further breakthrough. The enemy, he said, is trying to occupy key heights or the so-called tactical ridges.
“ Ukraine will launch a counteroffensive in different areas, it will start in the north – the Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod directions. Further Svyatovo-Kremennoe and Artyomovskoe directions. Then the main blow will be inflicted on Zaporozhye ,” Prigozhin said.
He noted that despite all the difficulties, Artyomovsk would be taken.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/45928

Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 16:39 utc | 10

Once again we see that the Ukrainians seem to have a plan and the Russians seem to have no plan at all. For example, Russia was warned over and over again that the Bakhmut flanks were vulnerable, a warning they should never have needed. Didn’t matter. They just ignored the warnings, it appears. They had almost no preparation for the attack they knew was coming, it seems, the attack that some here would have us believe they welcomed, since after all they were playing 11 dimensional chess the whole time…
But what a total fiasco this lastest disaster is. Four Russian aircraft eliminated on one operation. Wow. Russian aircraft have been nearly eliminated from this war because they so desperately fear the Ukrainians. Now even standoff attacks are not safe for the Russians. But then again, how much does it matter, since the glide bombs didn’t in fact substantially change the war. The Russians still could barely advance.
Is the Russian military more incompetent or more corrupt? That is probably the only remaining question to be answered by this war.

Posted by: paul | May 13 2023 16:45 utc | 12

Flight of Su-27 Ukrainian Armed Forces with American AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missiles at extremely low altitude over one of the still untouched Ukrainian airfields.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/45931
Video in link

Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 16:53 utc | 14

In the last 24-48 hours, Russia confirmed to have lost SIX aircraft, and the gains of the last 2.5 months around Bakhmut have been reversed. Ukraine is being supplied with more advanced weapons, their offensive hasn’t even begun, and the slow but sure result is Russian defeat and certainly the end of Russia as we know it.

Posted by: Dave | May 13 2023 16:59 utc | 16

Posted by: james | May 13 2023 15:46 utc | 374
Every post in this vein is evidence that its creator has possibly a PowerPoint deep understanding of the mechanics of combat, or is following an agenda, which suspiciously aligns with Ukraine’s recently stated one of ‘demoralisation’, as part of the offensive.
You cannot fight without incurring losses, the harder you strike the enemy the more platforms are used and therefore exposed to enemy action. The ENEMY ALWAYS GETS A VOTE, and rarely exercises this right to benefit your plans. Humans create the doctrine and make and operate the weapons and platforms that tactically deliver it, humans are fallible, ergo everything they are involved with is error prone. Conclusion: war, the most confusing, erratic, stressful and error-exploiting environment, faced by humans, is won by the side making the least consequential errors (the purpose of training and the benefit of experience) not hardly any errors at all.
Losing two highly specialised machines is an undoubted blow, but their most important component is the trained EW crews they carry. Hence the millions of hours of training and experience lost by Ukraine has doomed them to eventual defeat, as the attrition of the German 39-41 cadres, in all services, eventually led to the capture of Berlin. Conversely, the Russians, now as then, gain in experience, accelerating the German decline, viscous circles versus virtuous ones only end one way.
The final, and most important point, Russia has always excelled at all arms warfare that prioritises the strategic dimension, and focuses on operational competence, so judging the progress of the SMO by the metric of tactical encounters is either a product of mendacity or a fundamental ignorance of the Russian Operational Art of War (a term created by the Soviets and revealing of the differences between the opposing doctrines). Ukraine’s slow death spiral has been exacerbated by the West’s attempt to try to graft a foreign doctrine onto the body of an army that was largely equipped and trained to fight a different way. The schizophrenic approach has worsened, as the catastrophic losses have been made up of hastily trained territorial units that were given lip-service instruction before being deployed in a decidedly Soviet fashion. No amount of Western goodies, game-changers, proxy support and disconnected tactical successes can compensate for the fundamental doctrinal instability of the Ukrainian army, an imbalance an offensive can only exacerbate.

Posted by: Milites | May 13 2023 17:08 utc | 18

It’s a military conflict, there is going to be losses, regardless of planning, strategy or tactics.
I have to smile at all these Girkinite Chicken Lickens running around crying “The sky is falling, the sky is falling!”. What are they going to do if there is an actual, serious setback somewhere? Overthrow President Putin???

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 13 2023 17:10 utc | 20

Escobar’s latest, “Cries and Whispers Along the Russian Watchtowers”, explores all the recent gossip and concludes that nobody but the Inside Circle really know what’s being planned, which is why there’s a huge upsurge in the Information War as we’ve seen here. The Fog of War now rules the battlefield as shown by Pepe’s conclusion:

So the next few weeks are absolutely crucial. Putin and the Security Council certainly know what everyone else doesn’t – including Prighozin. The key take away is that the ground will start to be laid for US/NATO to eventually turn rump Ukraine, the Baltic lap dogs, rabid Poland and a few other extras into a sort of Fortress Eastern Europe engaged in a war of attrition against Russia with the potential to last decades.
That may be the ultimate argument for Russia to finally go for the jugular, as soon as possible. Otherwise the future will be bleak. Well, not so bleak. Remember Putin: “We haven’t even started anything yet.”

And that is truly the case as the mincemeat grinder tactics remain in vogue but at some point must end if Russia’s to master the situation.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 13 2023 17:17 utc | 22

It’s at least evident that Peskov’s mention of this not being a war, has caused this armchair war on this site!
How rude of him to suggest that Russia hasn’t begun to fight!
He has to be suggesting that all the mutually agreed upon limitations of the SMO must be abandoned before it becomes a war for Russia.
ALL?

Posted by: Up North | May 13 2023 17:22 utc | 24

And that is truly the case as the mincemeat grinder tactics remain in vogue but at some point must end if Russia’s to master the situation.
Posted by: karlof1 | May 13 2023 17:17 utc |
Can we all maybe slow down a bit?
I have a wedding to go to in 3 months time and I would hate to miss it.
AFter all, Peskov didn’t even hint of Russia having to start a real war yet!

Posted by: Up North | May 13 2023 17:30 utc | 26

In the last 24-48 hours, Russia confirmed to have lost SIX aircraft, and the gains of the last 2.5 months around Bakhmut have been reversed. Ukraine is being supplied with more advanced weapons, their offensive hasn’t even begun, and the slow but sure result is Russian defeat and certainly the end of Russia as we know it.
Posted by: Dave | May 13 2023 16:59 utc | 16
————–
That would be more impactful if we hadn’t been hearing the same shit, endlessly repeated every day for the last year.
Or if one is entirely ignorant of the entire history of the Chechen Wars. Where Russia performed objectively much worse, with greater losses whilst the state was much weaker.
Then again context isn’t king with the low attention-span poster.

Posted by: Urban Fox | May 13 2023 17:34 utc | 28

Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 16:20 utc | 3
“”Experts of the publication say that planes and helicopters “most likely fell into an air ambush” and were shot down by air-to-air missiles””
That seems very unlikely. All four of those aircraft have excellent radar and battle-environment coordination. I think it’s more likely a ground-based attack, probably a special forces unit with Manpads and local EW tech.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | May 13 2023 17:46 utc | 30

Russia’s empire is facing a crisis of legitimacy and cohesion, as corruption and disloyalty pervade its military and political institutions. Russia’s oligarchs, who have amassed enormous wealth and power through the privatization of state assets and the exploitation of natural resources, have undermined the national interests and security of the nation and what remains of its empire by establishing close ties with foreign actors, especially in the West, to safeguard their interests and assets abroad. They have also influenced the media and the public opinion to portray the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, as a strong and popular leader, while concealing his dependence on their support. The oligarchs have compromised the integrity and efficiency of the state apparatus by bribing officials, evading taxes, and diverting funds from public services and infrastructure.
The corruption and disloyalty of the oligarchs have weakened Russia’s military capabilities and morale, as well as its diplomatic leverage and credibility. Russia’s military operation in Ukraine has been hampered by poor planning, coordination, and execution, as well as by defections, desertions, and mutinies among its troops. Russia’s allies and partners have been reluctant to support its intervention, fearing the repercussions of antagonizing the West and violating international law. Russia’s enemies have been emboldened to challenge its authority and interests, exploiting its vulnerabilities and divisions. What remains of Russia’s empire is crumbling from within (and has effectively been collateralized to China), as corruption and disloyalty erode its foundations and threaten its survival.
This scenario resembles the situation of the Roman Empire in the late third and fourth centuries CE, when it faced a series of internal and external crises that eventually led to its collapse. The Roman Empire was plagued by corruption and disloyalty among its military and political elites, who had accumulated wealth and power through the acquisition of land and slaves. They had also established ties with foreign powers, especially with the Germanic tribes that threatened the empire’s borders. They had influenced the public opinion to support their factional interests and ambitions (through imperial ideology and diversionary games), while undermining the authority and legitimacy of the emperor. They had compromised the functioning and stability of the state by engaging in civil wars, coups, and assassinations.
The corruption and disloyalty of the Roman elites had weakened the empire’s military strength and cohesion, as well as its diplomatic influence and prestige. The empire’s military campaigns had been hindered by poor leadership, discipline, and morale, as well as by desertions, rebellions, and betrayals among its soldiers. The empire’s allies and clients had been reluctant to support its wars, fearing the costs and risks of involvement. The empire’s enemies had been encouraged to attack its territories and interests, exploiting its weaknesses and conflicts. The empire had split into two halves, each with its own emperor and administration, further weakening its unity and power. The empire had fallen from within, as corruption and disloyalty destroyed its institutions and values.
Russia has often been referred to as the Third Rome, will the fate of this latter day Rome ultimately mirror that of the first two?

Posted by: Ludovic | May 13 2023 17:51 utc | 32

Re: Posted by: Thomas G Franklin | May 13 2023 17:09 utc | 19

Slow? RF successfully achieved all it’s land objectives in only one year against the
Neo Nato Nazi Alliance.
Hate to see what fast looks like.

Er. What?
Russia achieved all its land objectives in only one year?
What?
Why is Donetsk still being shelled daily then Tom?
FACT: Russia has never controlled all of Donbas since this conflict began 15 months ago and is at the moment on the retreat.
What are Russia’s land objectives btw? I don’t believe they’ve ever been clearly stated.
Is Odessa part of those land objectives? Because as a historic Russian city it damn well should be.
There has as yet been no evidence that Russia is even interested in taking Odessa. One would have to ask what the point of this whole thing is if Odessa is not even part of the Russian objectives.

Posted by: Julian | May 13 2023 18:01 utc | 34

@Vedran | May 13 2023 17:48 utc | 31

One thing I don’t understand – all four aircrafts were downed by manpads.

Probably not.

The Russian “Kommersant” writes, citing sources, the details of today’s downing of two helicopters and planes in the Bryansk region.
Kommersant writes that 4 aircraft could be shot down “almost simultaneously” near the border with Ukraine.
Both planes and helicopters “were part of the same air group.”
This group was a Su-34 fighter-bomber, a Su-35 fighter, as well as two Mi-8 helicopters.
The crews of the aircraft were killed, and “they are looking for the attackers on the ground and in the air.”
The tasks of aircraft and helicopters are also described:
“The fighters were supposed to deliver a missile and bomb attack on targets in the Chernigov region of Ukraine, and the helicopters were supposed to insure them, in order to pick up the Su crews if they were shot down by enemy fire. All four aircraft did not return to the airfield,” the article says. .
Experts of the publication say that planes and helicopters “most likely fell into an air ambush” and were shot down by air-to-air missiles

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/62518

Posted by: Norwegian | May 13 2023 18:08 utc | 36

@ostro | May 13 2023 18:06 utc | 35

Maybe London first, then Brussels…?

First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 13 2023 18:12 utc | 38

First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 13 2023 18:12 utc | 38
Hey, that’s no way to say goodbye…

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 13 2023 18:25 utc | 40

First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 13 2023 18:12 utc | 38

London sounds better…200 years too late…

Posted by: ostro | May 13 2023 18:32 utc | 42

Our source in the Office of the President said that the negotiations with the Pope ended in vain, the format of negotiations was imposed on us, and Zelensky outlined a common position – the Ukrainian formula for peace.
Bankova understands that any alternative format other than our formula will mean the defeat of Ukraine, which is why the Chinese peace plan will never be implemented.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17740

Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 18:34 utc | 44

Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 18:34 utc | 44

❗️ Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, commenting on Vatican settlement initiatives on Saturday, said his country does not need mediators.
“With all due respect to His Holiness, we do not need mediators, we need a just peace,” he said on a programme on the state TV channel RAI featuring well-known TV presenter Bruno Vespa. According to Zelensky, a settlement in Ukraine should only be built around his so-called peace formula.
When asked by Vespa whether he would be ready to talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin if necessary, Zelensky claimed that there was “nothing to talk about” with the Russian leader.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/45941

Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 18:40 utc | 46

Search for “the phoney war” and see how many hits you get. I use Ducj Duck Go mostly, Google seems to have made itself useless.

Posted by: Bemildred | May 13 2023 18:54 utc | 48

First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 13 2023 18:12 utc | 38

Hallelujah…

Posted by: malenkov | May 13 2023 18:56 utc | 50

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 13 2023 17:58 utc | 3
Meanwhile, away from all the Karen-panic, today’s ‘clobber list’ from the Russian Defence Ministry:

There has been well over a year of daily “clobber reports” from the RDM, and Russia still only controls the easternmost 1/8th of Ukraine and cannot move the frontline westward in any noteworthy fashion.

Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | May 13 2023 19:04 utc | 52

@52 yes using russian MOD reports as facts is ludicrous. I mean, I dunno I can’t even.
At this rate they’ll be nuking themselves to slow natos advance to Moscow.
When I first started posting here I said that, if anyone recalls. Russia is going to nuke itself.
Seem more likely now?

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 13 2023 19:08 utc | 54

Down South | May 13 2023 18:34 utc | 44
I wonder if Zelensky asked for arms from the Vatican city, or the right to speak at a Mess? If he couldn’t speak at the EU song contest then a spout-off on the Papal balcony would be a interesting venu for him.

Posted by: Stonebird | May 13 2023 19:15 utc | 56

Time is
Ripe…
4
Mil. coup …
Toppling
Happy
Grandfather
In
Москва…
You ain’t seen noting yet!

Posted by: Greg Galloway | May 13 2023 19:30 utc | 58

Stonebird | May 13 2023 19:08 utc | 53
There is a video of one of the helicopters exploding in the sky. And photos from the blades that fell into someone’s garden, they have little holes in them. I have no idea if these are fake or not.
Sabotage isn’t impossible. Last year a plane fell during training, apparently both pilots suffocated. Looked very strange considering everything else happening. Then that shooting during training. The New Year party that received himars looked strange

Posted by: rk | May 13 2023 19:34 utc | 60

It’s looking more and more like Shadowbanned is correct – that there are traitors high in the government sabotaging Russia’s ability to conduct the SMO/war and do what is best.
In the months before the last Ukrainian counteroffensive late last summer to early fall, things had grown stagnant on the lines, with Russians on Telegram complaining that there forces were too few and that Ukrainians were accumulating their forces. And that was similar to what they were saying when Wagner stalled about 2 months ago.
Meanwhile, some on blogs like this kept saying it was all going according to Russia’s plan of slow grinding and getting the Ukrainian forces where they could be killed. But never mind all the civilian deaths and injuries and infrastructure destruction in the Donbass and even in Russia itself. The a plan to “slow grind” the enemy forces but in doing so leave the civilians subject to constant terror bombings is essentially a war crime if the Russia had the ability to do much better.

Posted by: MiniMo | May 13 2023 19:38 utc | 62

Zelensky is waiting for the development of events in the Turkish case in order to understand what chances he has in the offensive case.
Recall that Zelensky tacitly supported Erdogan’s opponent, since with the advent of Kemal Kılıçdaroglu, Ze has a huge window of opportunity.
Back in April, we insided that the Turkish elections will actually determine the future offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and what it will be like.
There will be an attempted color revolution in Turkey if Erdogan wins, followed by sanctions and other leverage from the West.

https://t.me/legitimniy/15331

Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 19:42 utc | 64

Todays’ news from Ukraine makes me think of Syria, 24 november 2015, when a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24. Same pattern, same trap, same opponent.

Posted by: Passerby | May 13 2023 19:48 utc | 66

Zelensky is waiting for the development of events in the Turkish case in order to understand what chances he has in the offensive case.
Recall that Zelensky tacitly supported Erdogan’s opponent, since with the advent of Kemal Kılıçdaroglu, Ze has a huge window of opportunity.
Back in April, we insided that the Turkish elections will actually determine the future offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and what it will be like.
There will be an attempted color revolution in Turkey if Erdogan wins, followed by sanctions and other leverage from the West.
https://t.me/legitimniy/15331
Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 19:42 utc | 64
If Edrogen is reelected, he will retaliate by withdrawing Turkey from NATO.

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 13 2023 20:14 utc | 68

Elmer: Now that’s just silly talk. Erdo knows that he wields more power within NATO, if only as a monkey wrench, than outside it.
He can’t be expelled from NATO (per its charter) and would be a fool to leave it.

Posted by: malenkov | May 13 2023 20:29 utc | 70

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 13 2023 17:58 utc | 33
Just can’t wrap your brain around the fact you have been propagandized eh? MoD clobber list? Give me a break. The very definition of propaganda. Hey got some land down here in FL if you are interested?

Posted by: Longhorn | May 13 2023 20:33 utc | 72

Posted by: Longhorn | May 13 2023 20:33 utc | 72
Ah, one of the credibility failures has appeared. Did you get an echo when you posted last time? It was quite empty there…

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 13 2023 20:35 utc | 74

Merandor: I think you’ve just identified the Ukrainian counteroffensive!

Posted by: malenkov | May 13 2023 20:41 utc | 76

“So the anti-Christ (Zelensky) met with the pope. Who had that on their Bingo card?”
A lot of us did, I imagine. Pater confessor of the Argentine fascist junta meets Bandera Boy? It’s a match made in Vatican heaven!

Posted by: malenkov | May 13 2023 20:49 utc | 78

A little earlier there was a message about the exit to the launch zone of several of Tu-95s. Those flying bombs are on their way…

Posted by: ostro | May 13 2023 20:54 utc | 80

re: Bemildred | May 13 2023 18:54 utc | 48
you say:
“I use Ducj Duck Go mostly, Google seems to have made itself useless.
Try Yandex.

Posted by: Perimetr | May 13 2023 21:09 utc | 82

Down South | May 13 2023 19:39 utc | 63
Does Zelensky think he is the one to tell the Pope what to do? I am always surprised by the amount of people in “high” places that think all they have to do is tell others what to do, and it happens.
Plenty of examples, as from the above Ze, to VdL, Macron or Blinken etc. I know the MsM tviewers no longer have separate ideas of their own, but it gets serious when the leading personality of a billion (probably) congregation is told what to do. ie. Follow Z, as the supreme being.
***
I didn’t think it would go well, but I thought it would have been the Pope who spoke and told Zele to go to “H%ll”, up sulphur creek or down by the fireside?

Posted by: Stonebird | May 13 2023 21:20 utc | 84

You gotta wonder if those are DU ammo going up in the air in Khmelnitsky and Ternopil. I wouldn’t be all surprised that Nato is stockpiling all their stuff in western Ukraine into one or two single storage locations.

Posted by: unimperator | May 13 2023 21:35 utc | 86

Am I misreading or is he telling the pope to get f@&#ed?
Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 19:39 utc | 63
Z probably thinks he has millions of atheists behind him. The rejection from Eurovision must have stung.

Posted by: dh | May 13 2023 21:43 utc | 88

whirlX | May 13 2023 21:27 utc | 85
And before that, last year, they were starting to hit the fuel supply on a large scale. It worked, videos of nazis on bicycles for a week or two, then stop.

Posted by: rk | May 13 2023 21:51 utc | 90

” Only 2 Choppers and 2 Fighters….”

And all those names and faces panicked by a few aircraft losse….
WestEnglandAndy

In October 2016, NATO had a Su24 shot down by a Turkish Air Force F16, hidden behind a mountainous height, using an AIM 120 capable of hitting a target beyond the visual horizon.
Valentin Vasilievcu (RI) had perfectly analyzed the flight data of the 2 planes and had concluded that the trap had been set and triggered by an American Awacs which was monitoring and coordinating the operation at more than 400km.
Today, the same AIM-120 AMRAAM can be launched from NASAMS platform. The USA provided the launchers and Great Britain supplied these missiles last autumn.
All the rest of the talk is just to smoke the debate because it is obvious that this is a direct intervention of NATO attacking the Russian air force on the territory of Russia, from the territory of Ukraine.
Otherwise, one would have to believe that the Ukrainian army has managed to transform Santa’s sleigh into a 7th generation stealth fighter
Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Posted by: La Bastille | May 13 2023 21:58 utc | 92

To me, it is unclear initiative to systematically starting destroying electric grid and production infrastructure and stopped right in the middle of doing it. And it went well.
Neutralising the power generating facilities and crushing AA defence at the same time.
Last few month electric network seems to be up and running as before. That makes no sense.
Posted by: whirlX | May 13 2023 21:27 utc | 85

There was never any real intention to collapse the grid.
It was all done for the political purpose to placate those unhappy about the kids gloves SMO internally (“see, we are hitting them hard”), and for the military purpose to deplete AD missiles.
Only if you look at it that way does what they did start to make sense.
If they wanted it, Ukraine would have been in the dark within 6 hours, permanently, even with their enormous overcapacity as a result of the grid having been built for a 50M+ highly industrialized country that is now deindustrialized and reduced to 20M. Clearly they didn’t want that, thus the biweekly massive missile attacks on small transformers, but not on generators and on 750-kV transformers, and then they stopped.
As to why they didn’t want to do it, two explanations:
First, it would have created a massive humanitarian catastrophe. Winter happened to be mild, but there were still several really cold spells. Those apartment buildings are not survivable at -10C, and they are also absolutely not survivable without running water — toilets will back up within 24 hours, and that’s the end of civilization.
Second, likely oligarch business interests intervened, as they have on many other issues.
The humanitarian argument is entirely valid though, and I myself can accept it.
What I can’t accept is why the railways have not been disabled. This can be done without taking out the grid — there are dedicated substations and there are locomotive depots that can be hit. Once UA is out of locomotives, that’s the end of their railways. They can’t make new ones — the locomotive factory was in Lugansk and it got shut down a decade ago — and they can’t import ready made ones from the West either because of the different track gauge.
But apparently that too would hurt oligarch profits so railways are not touched…

Posted by: shadowbanned | May 13 2023 22:19 utc | 94

Goes to show those shinny new fangled western weapons are working as promised.
4g vs 3g warfare.

Posted by: Johnycomelately | May 13 2023 22:34 utc | 96

Stonebird’s sabotage theory (@53) seems the most plausible one to me, more plausible than A2A missiles (where are these Ukrainian planes that fired them, successfully four times, supposed to have been?), more plausible than man pads, let alone ground based air defense systems which are largely destroyed by Russia. This would not be the first Ukrainian success based on Partisan activity in Russia or Crimea.

Posted by: grunzt | May 13 2023 22:42 utc | 98

Posted by: alek_a | May 13 2023 16:33 utc | 6
Posted by: paul | May 13 2023 16:45 utc | 12
Posted by: Dave | May 13 2023 16:59 utc | 16
Posted by: bored | May 13 2023 17:06 utc | 17
North Atlantic Troll Organisation
Unimaginatively identical ‘prose’ style and all knocked out in half an hour. “They’ve” waited for months to celebrate the downing of a few Russian aircraft and the recapture of 2km of Artemovsk…and conclude that ‘this is the end of Russia, who will be paying reparations for centuries’.
In principle I am not in favour of the plug-in that filters posters out as it removes alternate views in a debate, but for the obvious NATROLLS it might just work.
I’d keep Longhorn of the Bewildered Herd as it’s great to see his MSM regurgitated points get smashed to pieces.

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | May 13 2023 22:48 utc | 100