Ukraine Open Thread 2023-114
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on May 13, 2023 at 15:59 UTC | Permalink
next page »Anyone have any thoughts on an SU-34 and a helicopter going down recently inside Russia near the border with Ukraine? Infiltrators with MANPADS or simply mechanical problems?
Posted by: Джошуа | May 13 2023 16:18 utc | 2
The Russian "Kommersant" writes, citing sources, the details of today's downing of two helicopters and planes in the Bryansk region.Kommersant writes that 4 aircraft could be shot down "almost simultaneously" near the border with Ukraine.
Both planes and helicopters "were part of the same air group."
This group was a Su-34 fighter-bomber, a Su-35 fighter, as well as two Mi-8 helicopters.
The crews of the aircraft were killed, and "they are looking for the attackers on the ground and in the air."
The tasks of aircraft and helicopters are also described:
"The fighters were supposed to deliver a missile and bomb attack on targets in the Chernigov region of Ukraine, and the helicopters were supposed to insure them, in order to pick up the Su crews if they were shot down by enemy fire. All four aircraft did not return to the airfield," the article says. .
Experts of the publication say that planes and helicopters "most likely fell into an air ambush" and were shot down by air-to-air missiles
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/62518
Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 16:20 utc | 3
The 4 aircraft shoot downs are being blamed on manpad sabatouers. I'm guessing the jets were shot down doing glide bomb runs, been a lot of that in Briansk region. The jet must be an easy target going full speed straight up.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 13 2023 16:26 utc | 4
A2A is not ManPAD or any other SAM. These were shootdowns from airborne fighter aircraft if Kommersant is to be believed
Posted by: CrushedZone | May 13 2023 16:31 utc | 5
Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 16:20 utc | 3
Ukraine will now slowly start tightening the screws with all the equipment and training Russia allowed it to receive from NATO. Couple that with NATO vessels in the Black Sea if Erdogan loses and it will be very difficult for Russia to win.
They have allowed themselves to get to this point with weak response after weak response all the while NATO was taking over the Ukrainian army.
With cruise missiles targets on Crimea and within Russia will accelerate and at a given point Ukraine will have as much aerial firepower as Russia has. Any attach within Ukraine will be reciprocated in full on Russia.
I think this will then be the moment for peace where Russia will maybe have Crimea as a neutral territory and will be paying reparations for centuries.
Posted by: alek_a | May 13 2023 16:33 utc | 6
The Ghost of Kiev is back.
Not joking. It seems some good Ukranian fighters killed and destroyed very top of the line Russian aircraft and pilots. May they rest in peace.
This is the closest reality has gotten to the myth, the legend, the Ghost of Kiev.
You gotta tip your hat to Ukraine and find out what the HELL is going on with Russian intelligence.
Posted by: Comandante | May 13 2023 16:33 utc | 7
Posted by: Джошуа | May 13 2023 16:18 utc | 2
It definitely wasn't manpads, and the aircraft would only be slowly and partially damaged, with enough time for someone at least to jump out with ejection seat. It was either air launched missile or air defense missile. Both are possible. Nato shouldn't have AWACS coverage in the Bryansk region, unless they fly their AWACS planes in Ukraine which I doubt. That means that either their air defense radar would need to be active which makes them vulnerable (probably S-300), or Mig-29 has been integrated to carry western AA-missiles. They are probably flying very low.
Who delivered them information about proximity of planes in the Bryansk region if it wasn't AWACS or air defense radar? DRG groups. Then that means the Ukro plane mut have been patrolling near the border, albeit probably flying very low.
Posted by: unimperator | May 13 2023 16:35 utc | 8
VIDEO https://twitter.com/AbrahamStein8/status/1657417117166186496?s=20
Posted by: Dave Oneil | May 13 2023 16:07 utc | 1
Such a calm man. Such a measured response. And he's dead right, imo. The SMO is not a "destroy Ukraine operation", as much as many highly emotional supporters would like.
Perhaps in a few years people will look back and see the Kremlin's wisdom in not destroying Ukraine with all its got. Crippling its power to threaten RF is the overall game -- not wiping out 20 million neighbours.
Russia's first priority is not to destroy itself, directly through mass mobilisation and big actions all over Ukraine, or else indirectly by inciting bigger reactions from the west against it. Moscow knows damn well that too much RF military into Ukraine WILL CAUSE a Coalition of the Willing to come in and protect/rescue Ukraine. Not NATO, because it is not their charter, but the US could easily arrange some EU national forces if Russia fights too hard. Poland would jump at the chance.
Posted by: The Dolphin | May 13 2023 16:38 utc | 9
The head of PMC "Wagner" told where the Armed Forces of Ukraine would strike first of all during the counteroffensive"To dispel the controversy surrounding the situation near Bakhmut, Yevgeny Prigozhin spoke about the current situation at the front and the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," the Wagner PMC press service said.
In his video, Prigozhin said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are delivering pinpoint strikes. And where it “breaks”, they send their reserves there for a further breakthrough. The enemy, he said, is trying to occupy key heights or the so-called tactical ridges.
“ Ukraine will launch a counteroffensive in different areas, it will start in the north - the Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod directions. Further Svyatovo-Kremennoe and Artyomovskoe directions. Then the main blow will be inflicted on Zaporozhye ,” Prigozhin said.
He noted that despite all the difficulties, Artyomovsk would be taken.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/45928
Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 16:39 utc | 10
BAKHMUT:
Bakhmut has been considered the linchpin of the Donbas defense. Despite the claims of it being of no military significance by the West as it looks to fall, the Donbas battle front will change accordingly to when Russia takes all of this city.
Prigozhin has been saying the flanks of Bakhmut were weak and not propertly defended. Yet, again he is proving to be correct by the recent advances of the Ukrainian troops into these flanks.
Supposely, General Shoigu and Prigozhin do not get along. So, maybe Shoigu purposely positioned a weak defense on the Northern and Sourthern flanks of Bakhmut to thwart the Wager's forces advance in the remaining area of Bakhmut.
Or perhaps what has been going on in the Bakhmut area is a Russian tactic to draw in more Ukrainian troops into the meat grinder.
Such is the fog of war.
If Shoigu is gone from his position soon or just gone, then he was acting in a treasonous manner towards Prigonzhin. If Bakhmut's Wagner advance is stalled because of weak flanks, then the blame can be rightfully shifted towards the Russian higher ranking generals.
It looks like a major Russian loss may be needed to shake up the current military command to bring it into line with what it needs to be in order to win. Such are the necessities of war.
Meanwhile, the seriousness of the Russo/Ukrainian war continues to escalate in Moscow. No doubt, this is putting pressure on Putin to respond with prudent actions to bring about a quick taking down of the AFU in the Donbas.
At this point I would trust Prigozhin. But, then too, his spouting off about the treason within the Russian command could just be a ploy to bring more Ukrainian troops to the Russian meat grinder.
Posted by: young | May 13 2023 16:44 utc | 11
Once again we see that the Ukrainians seem to have a plan and the Russians seem to have no plan at all. For example, Russia was warned over and over again that the Bakhmut flanks were vulnerable, a warning they should never have needed. Didn't matter. They just ignored the warnings, it appears. They had almost no preparation for the attack they knew was coming, it seems, the attack that some here would have us believe they welcomed, since after all they were playing 11 dimensional chess the whole time...
But what a total fiasco this lastest disaster is. Four Russian aircraft eliminated on one operation. Wow. Russian aircraft have been nearly eliminated from this war because they so desperately fear the Ukrainians. Now even standoff attacks are not safe for the Russians. But then again, how much does it matter, since the glide bombs didn't in fact substantially change the war. The Russians still could barely advance.
Is the Russian military more incompetent or more corrupt? That is probably the only remaining question to be answered by this war.
Posted by: paul | May 13 2023 16:45 utc | 12
paul @ 12
"Is the Russian military more incompetent or more corrupt? That is probably the only remaining question to be answered by this war."
RESPONSE: My guess is that Prigozhin is correct that there is treason within the Russian army chain-of-command. It could be that some of those billions of Western aid went to buy off a few key players in the Russian army.
Posted by: young | May 13 2023 16:51 utc | 13
Flight of Su-27 Ukrainian Armed Forces with American AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missiles at extremely low altitude over one of the still untouched Ukrainian airfields.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/45931
Video in link
Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 16:53 utc | 14
Posted by: paul | May 13 2023 16:45 utc | 12
Luckily Nato also lost a Mig-29 and Su-24 involved in the Shadow storm attack on the Lugansk chemical and meat plant. Russia is a hell of a lot ahead in decimating the air force of Ukraine still. Nato has to basically rebuild it from scratch with F-16 or whatever, but maybe we'll see the rules then changing.
The next step of escalation is obviously starting to simply hit population centers in western Ukraine to remove that piece of Nato proxy off the board. Will it go to that?
Lets face it, no one but some minority of Poles who are rabid naziphiles, and someone from the Baltic may actually fight Russia in Ukraine. The people in western Ukraine seem to be cowards too, the central and western Ukrainians seem to be doing 98% of fighting.
Posted by: unimperator | May 13 2023 16:58 utc | 15
In the last 24-48 hours, Russia confirmed to have lost SIX aircraft, and the gains of the last 2.5 months around Bakhmut have been reversed. Ukraine is being supplied with more advanced weapons, their offensive hasn't even begun, and the slow but sure result is Russian defeat and certainly the end of Russia as we know it.
Posted by: Dave | May 13 2023 16:59 utc | 16
@ Dave | May 13 2023 16:59 utc | 16
Incredible, isn't it? For all the talk of Ukraine being finished, their army depleted, and the rising might of the BRICS union, Russia looks like it's about to lose everything, the Ukrainian army is still going strong, and not one BRICS member lifted a finger in assisting Russia against this existential threat. America really is the world's lone, uncontested superpower.
Posted by: bored | May 13 2023 17:06 utc | 17
Posted by: james | May 13 2023 15:46 utc | 374
Every post in this vein is evidence that its creator has possibly a PowerPoint deep understanding of the mechanics of combat, or is following an agenda, which suspiciously aligns with Ukraine’s recently stated one of ‘demoralisation’, as part of the offensive.
You cannot fight without incurring losses, the harder you strike the enemy the more platforms are used and therefore exposed to enemy action. The ENEMY ALWAYS GETS A VOTE, and rarely exercises this right to benefit your plans. Humans create the doctrine and make and operate the weapons and platforms that tactically deliver it, humans are fallible, ergo everything they are involved with is error prone. Conclusion: war, the most confusing, erratic, stressful and error-exploiting environment, faced by humans, is won by the side making the least consequential errors (the purpose of training and the benefit of experience) not hardly any errors at all.
Losing two highly specialised machines is an undoubted blow, but their most important component is the trained EW crews they carry. Hence the millions of hours of training and experience lost by Ukraine has doomed them to eventual defeat, as the attrition of the German 39-41 cadres, in all services, eventually led to the capture of Berlin. Conversely, the Russians, now as then, gain in experience, accelerating the German decline, viscous circles versus virtuous ones only end one way.
The final, and most important point, Russia has always excelled at all arms warfare that prioritises the strategic dimension, and focuses on operational competence, so judging the progress of the SMO by the metric of tactical encounters is either a product of mendacity or a fundamental ignorance of the Russian Operational Art of War (a term created by the Soviets and revealing of the differences between the opposing doctrines). Ukraine’s slow death spiral has been exacerbated by the West’s attempt to try to graft a foreign doctrine onto the body of an army that was largely equipped and trained to fight a different way. The schizophrenic approach has worsened, as the catastrophic losses have been made up of hastily trained territorial units that were given lip-service instruction before being deployed in a decidedly Soviet fashion. No amount of Western goodies, game-changers, proxy support and disconnected tactical successes can compensate for the fundamental doctrinal instability of the Ukrainian army, an imbalance an offensive can only exacerbate.
Posted by: Milites | May 13 2023 17:08 utc | 18
Slow? RF successfully achieved all it's land objectives in only one year against the
Neo Nato Nazi Alliance.
Hate to see what fast looks like.
Posted by: Thomas G Franklin | May 13 2023 17:09 utc | 19
It’s a military conflict, there is going to be losses, regardless of planning, strategy or tactics.
I have to smile at all these Girkinite Chicken Lickens running around crying “The sky is falling, the sky is falling!”. What are they going to do if there is an actual, serious setback somewhere? Overthrow President Putin???
Posted by: West of England Andy | May 13 2023 17:10 utc | 20
Pictures from the Khmelnitsky explosion
https://twitter.com/hashtag/Khmelnitsky
Posted by: mk | May 13 2023 17:15 utc | 21
Escobar's latest, "Cries and Whispers Along the Russian Watchtowers", explores all the recent gossip and concludes that nobody but the Inside Circle really know what's being planned, which is why there's a huge upsurge in the Information War as we've seen here. The Fog of War now rules the battlefield as shown by Pepe's conclusion:
So the next few weeks are absolutely crucial. Putin and the Security Council certainly know what everyone else doesn’t – including Prighozin. The key take away is that the ground will start to be laid for US/NATO to eventually turn rump Ukraine, the Baltic lap dogs, rabid Poland and a few other extras into a sort of Fortress Eastern Europe engaged in a war of attrition against Russia with the potential to last decades.That may be the ultimate argument for Russia to finally go for the jugular, as soon as possible. Otherwise the future will be bleak. Well, not so bleak. Remember Putin: “We haven’t even started anything yet.”
And that is truly the case as the mincemeat grinder tactics remain in vogue but at some point must end if Russia's to master the situation.
Time for Russia to dust off the gloves and destroy LVIV. Simple warning. Anymore provocations Warsaw next then London. Anglos did it on Japan?
Posted by: Rasputin | May 13 2023 17:17 utc | 23
It's at least evident that Peskov's mention of this not being a war, has caused this armchair war on this site!
How rude of him to suggest that Russia hasn't begun to fight!
He has to be suggesting that all the mutually agreed upon limitations of the SMO must be abandoned before it becomes a war for Russia.
ALL?
Posted by: Up North | May 13 2023 17:22 utc | 24
Posted by: Up North | May 13 2023 17:22 utc | 24
A war means killing all people in Ukraine.
Posted by: unimperator | May 13 2023 17:25 utc | 25
And that is truly the case as the mincemeat grinder tactics remain in vogue but at some point must end if Russia's to master the situation.
Posted by: karlof1 | May 13 2023 17:17 utc |
Can we all maybe slow down a bit?
I have a wedding to go to in 3 months time and I would hate to miss it.
AFter all, Peskov didn't even hint of Russia having to start a real war yet!
Posted by: Up North | May 13 2023 17:30 utc | 26
My question is this, at what point does NATO escalations qualify as being participants in this conflict. It would be helpful if Russia would spell that out because at this point, the psychos in Washington feel they can do whatever they want....and they will.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 13 2023 17:33 utc | 27
In the last 24-48 hours, Russia confirmed to have lost SIX aircraft, and the gains of the last 2.5 months around Bakhmut have been reversed. Ukraine is being supplied with more advanced weapons, their offensive hasn't even begun, and the slow but sure result is Russian defeat and certainly the end of Russia as we know it.
Posted by: Dave | May 13 2023 16:59 utc | 16
--------------
That would be more impactful if we hadn't been hearing the same shit, endlessly repeated every day for the last year.
Or if one is entirely ignorant of the entire history of the Chechen Wars. Where Russia performed objectively much worse, with greater losses whilst the state was much weaker.
Then again context isn't king with the low attention-span poster.
Posted by: Urban Fox | May 13 2023 17:34 utc | 28
My question is this, at what point does NATO escalations qualify as being participants in this conflict. It would be helpful if Russia would spell that out because at this point, the psychos in Washington feel they can do whatever they want....and they will.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 13 2023 17:33 utc
The question is moot to Russia, in that this is only really a war between Russia and America. Nato countries are only somewhat willing lapdogs that are at risk of taking the big hit if or when it comes.
Save maybe the UK which could be due for one 50 megatonner on their palace?
Posted by: Up North | May 13 2023 17:43 utc | 29
Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 16:20 utc | 3
""Experts of the publication say that planes and helicopters "most likely fell into an air ambush" and were shot down by air-to-air missiles""
That seems very unlikely. All four of those aircraft have excellent radar and battle-environment coordination. I think it's more likely a ground-based attack, probably a special forces unit with Manpads and local EW tech.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | May 13 2023 17:46 utc | 30
One thing I don't understand - all four aircrafts were downed by manpads. Is there any indication that S400 is active in any of these situations? Operational range of S400 should be between 200-350km, so I can not understand how an AD with 600 radar detection range. Russia and Ukraine share 2000km land border, that shoud be covered with 3 S400 systems, at least with detection range, why use manpads?
Posted by: Vedran | May 13 2023 17:48 utc | 31
Russia’s empire is facing a crisis of legitimacy and cohesion, as corruption and disloyalty pervade its military and political institutions. Russia's oligarchs, who have amassed enormous wealth and power through the privatization of state assets and the exploitation of natural resources, have undermined the national interests and security of the nation and what remains of its empire by establishing close ties with foreign actors, especially in the West, to safeguard their interests and assets abroad. They have also influenced the media and the public opinion to portray the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, as a strong and popular leader, while concealing his dependence on their support. The oligarchs have compromised the integrity and efficiency of the state apparatus by bribing officials, evading taxes, and diverting funds from public services and infrastructure.
The corruption and disloyalty of the oligarchs have weakened Russia’s military capabilities and morale, as well as its diplomatic leverage and credibility. Russia’s military operation in Ukraine has been hampered by poor planning, coordination, and execution, as well as by defections, desertions, and mutinies among its troops. Russia’s allies and partners have been reluctant to support its intervention, fearing the repercussions of antagonizing the West and violating international law. Russia’s enemies have been emboldened to challenge its authority and interests, exploiting its vulnerabilities and divisions. What remains of Russia’s empire is crumbling from within (and has effectively been collateralized to China), as corruption and disloyalty erode its foundations and threaten its survival.
This scenario resembles the situation of the Roman Empire in the late third and fourth centuries CE, when it faced a series of internal and external crises that eventually led to its collapse. The Roman Empire was plagued by corruption and disloyalty among its military and political elites, who had accumulated wealth and power through the acquisition of land and slaves. They had also established ties with foreign powers, especially with the Germanic tribes that threatened the empire’s borders. They had influenced the public opinion to support their factional interests and ambitions (through imperial ideology and diversionary games), while undermining the authority and legitimacy of the emperor. They had compromised the functioning and stability of the state by engaging in civil wars, coups, and assassinations.
The corruption and disloyalty of the Roman elites had weakened the empire’s military strength and cohesion, as well as its diplomatic influence and prestige. The empire’s military campaigns had been hindered by poor leadership, discipline, and morale, as well as by desertions, rebellions, and betrayals among its soldiers. The empire’s allies and clients had been reluctant to support its wars, fearing the costs and risks of involvement. The empire’s enemies had been encouraged to attack its territories and interests, exploiting its weaknesses and conflicts. The empire had split into two halves, each with its own emperor and administration, further weakening its unity and power. The empire had fallen from within, as corruption and disloyalty destroyed its institutions and values.
Russia has often been referred to as the Third Rome, will the fate of this latter day Rome ultimately mirror that of the first two?
Posted by: Ludovic | May 13 2023 17:51 utc | 32
Meanwhile, away from all the Karen-panic, today’s ‘clobber list’ from the Russian Defence Ministry: https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12467221@egNews
On 12 May at around 6.30pm Moscow time, AFU Air Force combat aircraft launched a missile attack on Polipak polymer products company and Milam meat processing plant in Lugansk.
The strike was carried out using Storm Shadow missiles supplied to the Kiev regime by the UK, contrary to London's claims that these weapons would not be used on civilian targets.As a result of the strike, a fire broke out on the territory of Lugansk food and chemical industries.
Some nearby residential buildings are destructed. Civilians, including six children, were injured.
The Russian Aerospace Forces fighter aircraft shot down AFU Su-24 aircraft that attacked Lugansk and Mig-29 fighter that was covering it.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
In Kupyansk direction, the attacks, launched by aviation, as well as artillery and heavy flamethrower systems of the Zapad Group of Forces, have resulted in the neutralisation of the enemy units close to Sinkovka, Kurilovka (Kharkov region), and Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People's Republic).
Two Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been thwarted near Berestovoye and Timkovka (Kharkov region).The enemy losses were up to 170 Ukrainian servicemen, four motor vehicles, Gvozdika and Akatsiya self-propelled artillery systems.
In Krasny Liman direction, the attacks, launched by Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, as well as artillery of the Tsentr Group of Forces, have resulted in the neutralisation of AFU units near Terny, Grigorovka (Donetsk People's Republic), and Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People's Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 75 Ukrainian servicemen, two infantry fighting vehicles, one Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.
In Donetsk direction, the assault detachments have liberated a neighbourhood in the northwestern part of Artyomovsk.
The Airborne Troops' units provided support to the assault units and restrained the enemy on the flanks.
Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, as well as artillery of the Yug Group of Forces inflicted a fire damage on the enemy units close to Grigorovka, Krasnoye and Chasov Yar (Donetsk People's Republic).
Russian aviation have made 9 sorties in this area during the day. The Group's artillery have performed 98 firing missions.
The enemy losses were over 285 Ukrainian servicemen and mercenaries, two tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles, four armoured personnel carriers, four motor vehicles, two Akatsiya self-propelled howitzers, one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and one D-30 howitzer.
In addition, one AFU artillery-missile armament and munitions depot was destroyed near Kramatorsk (Donetsk People's Republic).
In South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, the attacks, launched by aviation and artillery of the Vostok Group of Forces have resulted in the neutralisation of the enemy units close to Ugledar, Pavlovka, Novopol (Donetsk People's Republic), Malinovka, Malaya Tokmachka and Novodanilovka (Zaporozhye region).
The actions of a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group have been disrupted close to Novomayorskoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
The enemy losses were over 155 Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded, 14 motor vehicles, as well as one U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery system.
In Kherson direction, the enemy losses were up to 20 Ukrainian servicemen, three motor vehicles, and one Giatsint-B gun.
One AFU ammunition depot has been destroyed near Nikolayev.
Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, and Artillery of the Russian Group of Forces have engaged 74 AFU artillery units, manpower, and hardware in 114 areas during the day.
One radar station of Ukrainian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system has been destroyed near Novodmitrovka (Donetsk People's Republic).
The 5th Assault Brigade's battalion command and observation post has been hit near Krasnoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
One aircraft missiles and fuel depot for Ukrainian military equipment has been destroyed, close to Zaporozhye.
Fighter aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces has shot down one Mi-8 helicopter of Ukrainian Air Force near Kupyansk (Kharkov region).
Air defence facilities have intercepted three HIMARS projectiles. In addition, 18 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down cloe to Velikiy Vyselok, Dvurechnoye (Kharkov region), Belogorovka, Kremennaya, Svatovo (Lugansk People's Republic), Veseloye (Donetsk People's Republic), Mirovoye, Pologi (Zaporozhye region), Korsunka and Krynki (Kherson region).
In total, 424 airplanes, 231 helicopters, 4,117 unmanned aerial vehicles, 421 air defence missile systems, 9,119 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,100 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 4,806 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 10,167 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed since the beginning of the special military operation.
Meh... same old, same old...
Posted by: West of England Andy | May 13 2023 17:58 utc | 33
Re: Posted by: Thomas G Franklin | May 13 2023 17:09 utc | 19
Slow? RF successfully achieved all it's land objectives in only one year against the Neo Nato Nazi Alliance.Hate to see what fast looks like.
Er. What?
Russia achieved all its land objectives in only one year?
What?
Why is Donetsk still being shelled daily then Tom?
FACT: Russia has never controlled all of Donbas since this conflict began 15 months ago and is at the moment on the retreat.
What are Russia's land objectives btw? I don't believe they've ever been clearly stated.
Is Odessa part of those land objectives? Because as a historic Russian city it damn well should be.
There has as yet been no evidence that Russia is even interested in taking Odessa. One would have to ask what the point of this whole thing is if Odessa is not even part of the Russian objectives.
Posted by: Julian | May 13 2023 18:01 utc | 34
Time for Russia to dust off the gloves and destroy LVIV. Simple warning. Anymore provocations Warsaw next then London. Anglos did it on Japan?Posted by: Rasputin | May 13 2023 17:17 utc | 23
Maybe London first, then Brussels...?
A lot of people would be happy to see London burning...
Posted by: ostro | May 13 2023 18:06 utc | 35
@Vedran | May 13 2023 17:48 utc | 31
One thing I don't understand - all four aircrafts were downed by manpads.Probably not.
The Russian "Kommersant" writes, citing sources, the details of today's downing of two helicopters and planes in the Bryansk region.https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/62518Kommersant writes that 4 aircraft could be shot down "almost simultaneously" near the border with Ukraine.
Both planes and helicopters "were part of the same air group."
This group was a Su-34 fighter-bomber, a Su-35 fighter, as well as two Mi-8 helicopters.
The crews of the aircraft were killed, and "they are looking for the attackers on the ground and in the air."
The tasks of aircraft and helicopters are also described:
"The fighters were supposed to deliver a missile and bomb attack on targets in the Chernigov region of Ukraine, and the helicopters were supposed to insure them, in order to pick up the Su crews if they were shot down by enemy fire. All four aircraft did not return to the airfield," the article says. .
Experts of the publication say that planes and helicopters "most likely fell into an air ambush" and were shot down by air-to-air missiles
Posted by: Norwegian | May 13 2023 18:08 utc | 36
Re: Posted by: Ludovic | May 13 2023 17:51 utc | 32
Russia has often been referred to as the Third Rome, will the fate of this latter day Rome ultimately mirror that of the first two?
You have this completely the wrong way around.
It is not Russia that is referred to as the "Third Rome" - it is the USA.
It is the United States that is beset by internal corruption and rivalries that is weakening it's international reach and influence and on the verge of collapse - not Russia.
Posted by: Julian | May 13 2023 18:10 utc | 37
@ostro | May 13 2023 18:06 utc | 35
Maybe London first, then Brussels...?First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 13 2023 18:12 utc | 38
Russia moving too slow?
Can't we safely say now that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has begun, in all it's ferocity?
This could explain why Ritter, Macgregor, and others are suggesting that Ukraine has no ability to launch their counter-offensive?
Or it could mean that Ukraine has been advised by America to start slow and gentle?
Posted by: Up North | May 13 2023 18:17 utc | 39
First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 13 2023 18:12 utc | 38
Hey, that’s no way to say goodbye...
Posted by: West of England Andy | May 13 2023 18:25 utc | 40
Posted by: Up North | May 13 2023 18:17 utc | 39
The slow and gentle offensive, I wonder what historical parallels are there for such an approach.
Posted by: Milites | May 13 2023 18:25 utc | 41
First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 13 2023 18:12 utc | 38
London sounds better...200 years too late...
Posted by: ostro | May 13 2023 18:32 utc | 42
Our source in the Office of the President said that the negotiations with the Pope ended in vain, the format of negotiations was imposed on us, and Zelensky outlined a common position - the Ukrainian formula for peace.Bankova understands that any alternative format other than our formula will mean the defeat of Ukraine, which is why the Chinese peace plan will never be implemented.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17740
Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 18:34 utc | 44
🔥 Bryanskoperational aspect.
It is now clear that this was an ambush by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on a group that worked with cruise bombs.
The group included:
- SU-34 fighter-bomber, in fact, which carried bombs;
- 2 MI-8 helicopters in a special electronic warfare configuration
- fighter-interceptor SU-35, covered.The Russian Aerospace Forces have been striking with UPMK bombs in northern Ukraine for a long time. The Russian Defense Ministry is very fond of “not complicating” what works, so we agree with the opinion that the actions of such strike groups are most likely of the same type and predictable.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the NATO headquarters quickly assessed the possibilities and prepared an "ambush".
Local channels immediately wrote nonsense about the Stingers, which the Strelkovs and co. carried on. We are not air defense specialists, but the video with the downing of the first MI-8 clearly shows that:
- the rocket enters the cockpit from the nose;
- the rocket is big.Accordingly, this is not a MANPADS, in which the missiles are small and enter the target from behind☝🏻
Either these are NATO air-to-air missiles, or the Armed Forces of Ukraine secretly rolled up to the very border of the air defense system.
Also against the version with MANPADS is the fact that the pilots died. Usually a small MANPADS missile hits the engine, and the armored capsule easily withstands this.
It is interesting that the protection systems did not work for the helicopters: they did not maneuver and did not discard the heat traps. This is weird. Possibly due to some tricky targeting option.
strategic level.
Probably the action was conceived for Ze's visit to Rome. Zelensky's last visit to Helsinki was accompanied by a blow to the Kremlin. Coincidence? 🧩
Ukrainian "new Arestoviches" write about the unprecedented slap in the face of the Russian Federation, the need for a nuclear response and the imminent end of the war in view of a strong blow to the image. It is clear that, on the instructions of Yermak, they inspire false optimism by painting an illusory picture 🧩
Yes, this is a very successful operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Russia lost 9 pilots and equipment worth about $100 million. Yes, it hurts them, but it's not fatal.
This cannot be compared with the loss of the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet or with the flight from Kharkov.
Therefore, it is not necessary to inspire people with false hopes for selfish purposes, this will not affect the strategic alignment.
Rather, it is an image strengthening of Ze's negotiating positions by finding weaknesses in the tactics of the Russian Federation.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17741
Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 18:37 utc | 45
Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 18:34 utc | 44
❗️ Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, commenting on Vatican settlement initiatives on Saturday, said his country does not need mediators."With all due respect to His Holiness, we do not need mediators, we need a just peace," he said on a programme on the state TV channel RAI featuring well-known TV presenter Bruno Vespa. According to Zelensky, a settlement in Ukraine should only be built around his so-called peace formula.
When asked by Vespa whether he would be ready to talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin if necessary, Zelensky claimed that there was "nothing to talk about" with the Russian leader.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/45941
Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 18:40 utc | 46
The slow and gentle offensive, I wonder what historical parallels are there for such an approach.
Posted by: Milites | May 13 2023 18:25 utc |
Nothing comes to mind specifically. Are you suggesting something?
If the Ukraine is capable of a blitzkreig counter-offensive then that might be very careless in eliciting a similar or even more destructive and deadly response by Russia! That wouldn't be good for humanity.
On the other hand, the Ukraine could be acting according to its ability, as has been suggested by analysts?
In any case, I think we can safely assume that the counter-offensive has begun.
Didn't Zelensky declare that when he said that it would have to wait? Didn't America say that the Ukraine would suffer huge losses?
Posted by: Up North | May 13 2023 18:43 utc | 47
Search for "the phoney war" and see how many hits you get. I use Ducj Duck Go mostly, Google seems to have made itself useless.
Posted by: Bemildred | May 13 2023 18:54 utc | 48
There are claims that the Russian aircrafts were downed by Russian forces (accidently, of course). Fake news, probably.
Posted by: Apollyon | May 13 2023 18:55 utc | 49
Hallelujah…First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin.Posted by: Norwegian | May 13 2023 18:12 utc | 38
Posted by: malenkov | May 13 2023 18:56 utc | 50
Search for "the phoney war" and see how many hits you get. I use Ducj Duck Go mostly, Google seems to have made itself useless.
Posted by: Bemildred | May 13 2023 18:54 utc
Yes, Sitzkreig may loosely apply to the present counter-offensive.
Posted by: Up North | May 13 2023 19:01 utc | 51
Posted by: West of England Andy | May 13 2023 17:58 utc | 3 Meanwhile, away from all the Karen-panic, today’s ‘clobber list’ from the Russian Defence Ministry:
There has been well over a year of daily "clobber reports" from the RDM, and Russia still only controls the easternmost 1/8th of Ukraine and cannot move the frontline westward in any noteworthy fashion.
Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | May 13 2023 19:04 utc | 52
This may be the start of something bigger, but it is more likely that it is a USNATO push rather than the Ukrainians independently. I think the US got tired of waiting and is doing some "forcing" of the situation.
ie.
a)The Luhansk explosion(s) with storm shadow missiles, must have been prepared on the ground before launch (I think it was Unimperator who found this, thanks), by "specialists" straight from blighty.
b) The positioning of wedge the Urkainians managed to form in the northern flank of Bakhmut between the weaker Russian forces and the Wagner group, must have been deducted from intercepted communications. This is something the US does habitually. Although it has been mentioned by other military commenters; Simplicius mentions crumple zones being used to guide attacks into prepared defense lines.
c) The four planes that were eliminated were probably victims of sabotage rather than Manpads or other aerial A2A means, as one of the planes "fell" without flames or other signs of being hit. The second flamed, in both cases the occupants were unable to eject. (Suggesting a sabotage inside the cockpit area). The two helicopters were not seen to be hit or crashes filmed.
d) There were evidently about 100 drone attacks during the 9th of May in Moscow, which suggests that they were organized by the usual suspects (including Soros sources to NGO's and other CIA bods, dissidents, as well as military saboteurs.)
e) The recent increase in spy planes all around Ukraine again.
Clearly the US war machine is involved at a fundamental level. Including intercepting communications between the Russian forces. This may be what the Russian High Command were expecting, a direct confrontation. In which case they may wait for more visible signs of external participation (Ie, Tanks, UK forces in Kayaks or other oddities).
****
Simplicius does point out that the Russians will need a stockpile of about 3.5 million shells for an effective offensive, which is also a reason that they may not be ready yet even with full production.. The Ukrainians would need the same sort of number, for any offensive lasting more than a few days. (but then they would have a problem of compatibility and logistics with all the shell variables
@52 yes using russian MOD reports as facts is ludicrous. I mean, I dunno I can't even.
At this rate they'll be nuking themselves to slow natos advance to Moscow.
When I first started posting here I said that, if anyone recalls. Russia is going to nuke itself.
Seem more likely now?
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 13 2023 19:08 utc | 54
"at this point, the psychos in Washington feel they can do whatever they want....and they will.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 13 2023 17:33 utc | 27"
This has always how the psychos have felt, & is how they always will feel, until they are burning in hell.
Posted by: Mary | May 13 2023 19:10 utc | 55
Down South | May 13 2023 18:34 utc | 44
I wonder if Zelensky asked for arms from the Vatican city, or the right to speak at a Mess? If he couldn't speak at the EU song contest then a spout-off on the Papal balcony would be a interesting venu for him.
Where is the Russia Partisan Military Initiative?
I think what history will regard as the greatest deficiency of Russia in their conduct of this war, is they failed to organize a Partisan
Military Initiative among the ethnic Russian population in Ukraine. They didnt even do this in annexed Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, nor territories they had occupied. Instead they decided the best thing was to explode 15-20,000 artillery shells on their own territory daily.
Yet the Ukrainian can conduct Partisan military attacks not only in Crimea but Moscow.
Why did Russia not enlist these Ethnic Russians not? Why are the ethnic Russians fighting for Ukraine? Why weren't they armed so they could prevent forced induction into the Ukrainian military and protect families from reprisals?
???
Posted by: Jerr | May 13 2023 19:30 utc | 57
Time is
Ripe...
4
Mil. coup ...
Toppling
Happy
Grandfather
In
Москва...
You ain't seen noting yet!
Posted by: Greg Galloway | May 13 2023 19:30 utc | 58
B can be mighty proud that his little watering hole has attracted the War Party Troll farms.
Posted by: Exile | May 13 2023 19:32 utc | 59
Stonebird | May 13 2023 19:08 utc | 53
There is a video of one of the helicopters exploding in the sky. And photos from the blades that fell into someone's garden, they have little holes in them. I have no idea if these are fake or not.
Sabotage isn't impossible. Last year a plane fell during training, apparently both pilots suffocated. Looked very strange considering everything else happening. Then that shooting during training. The New Year party that received himars looked strange
Posted by: rk | May 13 2023 19:34 utc | 60
c) The four planes that were eliminated were probably victims of sabotage rather than Manpads or other aerial A2A means, as one of the planes "fell" without flames or other signs of being hit. The second flamed, in both cases the occupants were unable to eject. (Suggesting a sabotage inside the cockpit area). The two helicopters were not seen to be hit or crashes filmed.
Posted by: Stonebird | May 13 2023 19:08 utc | 53
This video shows when one of the helicopters was hit
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/45880
Another video of one of the helicopters going down
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/62446
The blade of the downed Mi-8 helicopter is riddled with large similar striking elements, typical for the warhead of anti-aircraft missiles.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/62463
Photo in link
Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 19:35 utc | 61
It's looking more and more like Shadowbanned is correct - that there are traitors high in the government sabotaging Russia's ability to conduct the SMO/war and do what is best.
In the months before the last Ukrainian counteroffensive late last summer to early fall, things had grown stagnant on the lines, with Russians on Telegram complaining that there forces were too few and that Ukrainians were accumulating their forces. And that was similar to what they were saying when Wagner stalled about 2 months ago.
Meanwhile, some on blogs like this kept saying it was all going according to Russia's plan of slow grinding and getting the Ukrainian forces where they could be killed. But never mind all the civilian deaths and injuries and infrastructure destruction in the Donbass and even in Russia itself. The a plan to "slow grind" the enemy forces but in doing so leave the civilians subject to constant terror bombings is essentially a war crime if the Russia had the ability to do much better.
Posted by: MiniMo | May 13 2023 19:38 utc | 62
Posted by: Stonebird | May 13 2023 19:15 utc | 56
What struck me was the tone of the interview
With all due respect to His Holiness, we do not need mediators…
Am I misreading or is he telling the pope to get f@&#ed?
Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 19:39 utc | 63
Zelensky is waiting for the development of events in the Turkish case in order to understand what chances he has in the offensive case.Recall that Zelensky tacitly supported Erdogan's opponent, since with the advent of Kemal Kılıçdaroglu, Ze has a huge window of opportunity.
Back in April, we insided that the Turkish elections will actually determine the future offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and what it will be like.
There will be an attempted color revolution in Turkey if Erdogan wins, followed by sanctions and other leverage from the West.
https://t.me/legitimniy/15331
Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 19:42 utc | 64
Down South. With regard to elensky and Bergoglio: I don’t suppose it’s impossible for the cokehead to get something right!
Posted by: malenkov | May 13 2023 19:43 utc | 65
Todays' news from Ukraine makes me think of Syria, 24 november 2015, when a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24. Same pattern, same trap, same opponent.
Posted by: Passerby | May 13 2023 19:48 utc | 66
Zelensky is waiting for the development of events in the Turkish case in order to understand what chances he has in the offensive case.
Recall that Zelensky tacitly supported Erdogan's opponent, since with the advent of Kemal Kılıçdaroglu, Ze has a huge window of opportunity.
Back in April, we insided that the Turkish elections will actually determine the future offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and what it will be like.
There will be an attempted color revolution in Turkey if Erdogan wins, followed by sanctions and other leverage from the West.
https://t.me/legitimniy/15331
Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 19:42 utc | 64
If Edrogen is reelected, he will retaliate by withdrawing Turkey from NATO.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 13 2023 20:14 utc | 68
Khmelnitsky and Ternopol got hit already. There are videos from the Ukrainians themselves, even though posting such videos is prohibited there.
How many more this night?
Posted by: ostro | May 13 2023 20:24 utc | 69
Elmer: Now that’s just silly talk. Erdo knows that he wields more power within NATO, if only as a monkey wrench, than outside it.
He can’t be expelled from NATO (per its charter) and would be a fool to leave it.
Posted by: malenkov | May 13 2023 20:29 utc | 70
Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk, Kiev and many places in the west Ukraine will get hit too. And, maybe some other parts too, not far from the front, who knows...
Posted by: ostro | May 13 2023 20:30 utc | 71
Posted by: West of England Andy | May 13 2023 17:58 utc | 33
Just can't wrap your brain around the fact you have been propagandized eh? MoD clobber list? Give me a break. The very definition of propaganda. Hey got some land down here in FL if you are interested?
Posted by: Longhorn | May 13 2023 20:33 utc | 72
cannot move the frontline westward in any noteworthy fashion.
Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | May 13 2023 19:04 utc | 52
And you know for a fact that the Russian forces are in a hurry to “move the frontline westward in any noteworthy fashion”? Please, do tell more...
And while we’re on the subject of facts...
yes using russian MOD reports as facts is ludicrous. I mean, I dunno I can't even.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 13 2023 19:08 utc | 54
Hope this is meets your undoubtedly high standards... https://www.usdebtclock.org/
Posted by: West of England Andy | May 13 2023 20:33 utc | 73
Posted by: Longhorn | May 13 2023 20:33 utc | 72
Ah, one of the credibility failures has appeared. Did you get an echo when you posted last time? It was quite empty there...
Posted by: West of England Andy | May 13 2023 20:35 utc | 74
Wow so many doom posters that appear for the first time. The NAFO shills are really doing overtime today.
Posted by: Merandor | May 13 2023 20:37 utc | 75
Merandor: I think you’ve just identified the Ukrainian counteroffensive!
Posted by: malenkov | May 13 2023 20:41 utc | 76
So the anti-Christ (Zelensky) met with the pope. Who had that on their Bingo card?
Seriously, though, I’d like to get the real names and faces of all the people panicking because the RF had a bad day. If there is ever a war in my neighborhood or even a bar brawl, hockey match or even a game of tiddlywinks, I want to make sure that you’re not on my team.
Posted by: paul | May 13 2023 16:45 utc | 12
Calm down, Bakhmut has not been retaken. Some fields on the flanks were temporarily.
Things are heating up and there will be more horrible things. That’s called war.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 13 2023 20:43 utc | 77
“So the anti-Christ (Zelensky) met with the pope. Who had that on their Bingo card?”
A lot of us did, I imagine. Pater confessor of the Argentine fascist junta meets Bandera Boy? It’s a match made in Vatican heaven!
Posted by: malenkov | May 13 2023 20:49 utc | 78
There was a large explosion today.
"Ukraine:
A colossal explosion was heard at the main weapons and ammunition storage facility supplied by NATO in Khmelnytskyi, western Ukraine.
Repeated large detonation explosions occurred after being hit by the missiles, as the depots stockpiled very large quantities of fuel and ammunition for Ukrainian forces' planned offensive operation."
Posted by: David G Horsman | May 13 2023 20:52 utc | 79
A little earlier there was a message about the exit to the launch zone of several of Tu-95s. Those flying bombs are on their way...
Posted by: ostro | May 13 2023 20:54 utc | 80
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 13 2023 20:43 utc | 77
Yup, pretty much. And all those names and faces panicked by a few aircraft losses (tragic though they are for the people directly involved) lose their focus on the wider picture, the hybrid aspect of this conflict, which is global.
Posted by: West of England Andy | May 13 2023 21:01 utc | 81
re: Bemildred | May 13 2023 18:54 utc | 48
you say:
"I use Ducj Duck Go mostly, Google seems to have made itself useless.
Try Yandex.
Posted by: Perimetr | May 13 2023 21:09 utc | 82
75 and 76 posts were right on...had to stifle my chuckling since the wife is napping. Lucky I have handy dandy notepad to add more shill names. Seems it may have been an ambush especially if the bombing became routine or predictable. Ukrobots going crazy.
Posted by: Arcticman | May 13 2023 21:19 utc | 83
Down South | May 13 2023 19:39 utc | 63
Does Zelensky think he is the one to tell the Pope what to do? I am always surprised by the amount of people in "high" places that think all they have to do is tell others what to do, and it happens.
Plenty of examples, as from the above Ze, to VdL, Macron or Blinken etc. I know the MsM tviewers no longer have separate ideas of their own, but it gets serious when the leading personality of a billion (probably) congregation is told what to do. ie. Follow Z, as the supreme being.
***
I didn't think it would go well, but I thought it would have been the Pope who spoke and told Zele to go to "H%ll", up sulphur creek or down by the fireside?
ostro | May 13 2023 20:30 utc | 71
It is not a problem for RF to flatten crucial Ukrainian centres and important points and military targets.
The issue is, as it seems, not keeping a momentum to sustain those salvoes, day in day out.
To me, it is unclear initiative to systematically starting destroying electric grid and production infrastructure and stopped right in the middle of doing it. And it went well.
Neutralising the power generating facilities and crushing AA defence at the same time.
Last few month electric network seems to be up and running as before. That makes no sense.
1&1 TV still blares Ukraino-Nazi propaganda, more or less everything still works the same as before SMO started.
Then there was a hunt on AA systems recently and that was quite successful, again not sustained over the time.
50 mixed campaign of missiles and Lancets a day is not too much of a cost. If effective, as they were so far.
(and btw. a flotilla of 6-7 Polish Air Force, Czech Air Force and US military transport planes went to Tartu, Estonia the other day.)
Posted by: whirlX | May 13 2023 21:27 utc | 85
You gotta wonder if those are DU ammo going up in the air in Khmelnitsky and Ternopil. I wouldn't be all surprised that Nato is stockpiling all their stuff in western Ukraine into one or two single storage locations.
Posted by: unimperator | May 13 2023 21:35 utc | 86
Try Yandex.
Posted by: Perimetr | May 13 2023 21:09 utc | 82
Thanks for your advice. I have been there, but I don't do a lot of searches, and mostly obvious stuff. It is true that DDG is not very good.
I rely mainly on various aggregrators and sites like this that curate news, or their communities do. A diverse group. Having more foreign language skills would be nice, but you can't do everything, and people here are very helpful.
Posted by: Bemildred | May 13 2023 21:38 utc | 87
Am I misreading or is he telling the pope to get f@&#ed?
Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 19:39 utc | 63
Z probably thinks he has millions of atheists behind him. The rejection from Eurovision must have stung.
Posted by: dh | May 13 2023 21:43 utc | 88
You gotta wonder if those are DU ammo going up in the air in Khmelnitsky and Ternopil. I wouldn't be all surprised that Nato is stockpiling all their stuff in western Ukraine into one or two single storage locations.
Posted by: unimperator | May 13 2023 21:35 utc | 86
Even after wasting so many key strokes attempting to educate people about the exaggerated hysteria over Depleted Uranium, I had the same thought. NATO probably would keep the supply of munitions aggregated at only a few sites. Although the health effects are greatly exaggerated, Russia would be well advised to destroy the ammo that is most likely to defeat their tanks. The propaganda implications are priceless. Just for amusement, Russia might even include some Polonium-210 in the warhead. The short half-life of only a few weeks would trigger radiation detectors. Lots of folks in Ukraine would not just be shitting their panties but blaming the US and NATO for supplying the ammo.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 13 2023 21:49 utc | 89
whirlX | May 13 2023 21:27 utc | 85
And before that, last year, they were starting to hit the fuel supply on a large scale. It worked, videos of nazis on bicycles for a week or two, then stop.
Posted by: rk | May 13 2023 21:51 utc | 90
Posted by: Up North | May 13 2023 18:43 utc | 47
I’m suggesting that if there is no historical parallel then the ‘offensive’ is probably an offensive in name only. Zelensky reminds me of a gaming cheat who is rolling the dice constantly; if he’s challenged about what he rolled he’ll answer, ‘oh, I’m not really rolling, just getting in some practice’. If however, on one of these ‘practice’ dice, he rolls a winning score he’ll loudly claim that that was his ‘real’ roll.
Posted by: Milites | May 13 2023 21:52 utc | 91
" Only 2 Choppers and 2 Fighters...."
And all those names and faces panicked by a few aircraft losse....
WestEnglandAndy
In October 2016, NATO had a Su24 shot down by a Turkish Air Force F16, hidden behind a mountainous height, using an AIM 120 capable of hitting a target beyond the visual horizon.
Valentin Vasilievcu (RI) had perfectly analyzed the flight data of the 2 planes and had concluded that the trap had been set and triggered by an American Awacs which was monitoring and coordinating the operation at more than 400km.
Today, the same AIM-120 AMRAAM can be launched from NASAMS platform. The USA provided the launchers and Great Britain supplied these missiles last autumn.
All the rest of the talk is just to smoke the debate because it is obvious that this is a direct intervention of NATO attacking the Russian air force on the territory of Russia, from the territory of Ukraine.
Otherwise, one would have to believe that the Ukrainian army has managed to transform Santa's sleigh into a 7th generation stealth fighter
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
Posted by: La Bastille | May 13 2023 21:58 utc | 92
" Russian Spokesman Dmitry Peskov answers critics who say Russia’s military effort is too slow in a rare on camera interview. Responses to Wagner Group leader.
VIDEO https://twitter.com/AbrahamStein8/status/1657417117166186496?s=20
Posted by: Dave Oneil | May 13 2023 16:07 utc | 1 "
What do you call it when one side thinks its at war and the other doesnt ?
Heres some more comedy gold from the Peskov interview. Pure hilarity.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 13 2023 22:11 utc | 93
To me, it is unclear initiative to systematically starting destroying electric grid and production infrastructure and stopped right in the middle of doing it. And it went well. Neutralising the power generating facilities and crushing AA defence at the same time.Last few month electric network seems to be up and running as before. That makes no sense.
Posted by: whirlX | May 13 2023 21:27 utc | 85
There was never any real intention to collapse the grid.
It was all done for the political purpose to placate those unhappy about the kids gloves SMO internally ("see, we are hitting them hard"), and for the military purpose to deplete AD missiles.
Only if you look at it that way does what they did start to make sense.
If they wanted it, Ukraine would have been in the dark within 6 hours, permanently, even with their enormous overcapacity as a result of the grid having been built for a 50M+ highly industrialized country that is now deindustrialized and reduced to 20M. Clearly they didn't want that, thus the biweekly massive missile attacks on small transformers, but not on generators and on 750-kV transformers, and then they stopped.
As to why they didn't want to do it, two explanations:
First, it would have created a massive humanitarian catastrophe. Winter happened to be mild, but there were still several really cold spells. Those apartment buildings are not survivable at -10C, and they are also absolutely not survivable without running water -- toilets will back up within 24 hours, and that's the end of civilization.
Second, likely oligarch business interests intervened, as they have on many other issues.
The humanitarian argument is entirely valid though, and I myself can accept it.
What I can't accept is why the railways have not been disabled. This can be done without taking out the grid -- there are dedicated substations and there are locomotive depots that can be hit. Once UA is out of locomotives, that's the end of their railways. They can't make new ones -- the locomotive factory was in Lugansk and it got shut down a decade ago -- and they can't import ready made ones from the West either because of the different track gauge.
But apparently that too would hurt oligarch profits so railways are not touched...
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 13 2023 22:19 utc | 94
I see also Pope meeting news,
yes. Fog thick. This looks big peace brokering. aPeace deal be made? Thanks commenter about news,
fast
things move. Is the ukraine even shown meeting? What analysts saying?
Posted by: Miguel | May 13 2023 22:22 utc | 95
Goes to show those shinny new fangled western weapons are working as promised.
4g vs 3g warfare.
Posted by: Johnycomelately | May 13 2023 22:34 utc | 96
Time for a brandy ....
... and a song. Down out all those trolls ... barman, make it large; thank you!
This is for you especially Longhorn - the only fu€kers to drop the bomb on defenceless people - men, women and children ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAPXTVotR4w
Posted by: Don Firineach | May 13 2023 22:39 utc | 97
Stonebird's sabotage theory (@53) seems the most plausible one to me, more plausible than A2A missiles (where are these Ukrainian planes that fired them, successfully four times, supposed to have been?), more plausible than man pads, let alone ground based air defense systems which are largely destroyed by Russia. This would not be the first Ukrainian success based on Partisan activity in Russia or Crimea.
Posted by: grunzt | May 13 2023 22:42 utc | 98
Ohhh - that's lovely ...
Another song ......
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5G8AJf4Xzw
Posted by: Don Firineach | May 13 2023 22:43 utc | 99
Posted by: alek_a | May 13 2023 16:33 utc | 6
Posted by: paul | May 13 2023 16:45 utc | 12
Posted by: Dave | May 13 2023 16:59 utc | 16
Posted by: bored | May 13 2023 17:06 utc | 17
North Atlantic Troll Organisation
Unimaginatively identical ‘prose’ style and all knocked out in half an hour. “They’ve” waited for months to celebrate the downing of a few Russian aircraft and the recapture of 2km of Artemovsk…and conclude that ‘this is the end of Russia, who will be paying reparations for centuries’.
In principle I am not in favour of the plug-in that filters posters out as it removes alternate views in a debate, but for the obvious NATROLLS it might just work.
I’d keep Longhorn of the Bewildered Herd as it’s great to see his MSM regurgitated points get smashed to pieces.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | May 13 2023 22:48 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
New
Russia moving too slow?
Russian Spokesman Dmitry Peskov answers critics who say Russia’s military effort is too slow in a rare on camera interview. Responses to Wagner Group leader.
VIDEO https://twitter.com/AbrahamStein8/status/1657417117166186496?s=20
Posted by: Dave Oneil | May 13 2023 16:07 utc | 1