It has seemed for some months conceivable an enlarged conflict field would likely be Poland and Germany. In the skies first, then God knows what quickly next.
Britain jumped line.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | May 13 2023 4:34 utc | 204

We do not know for what reason the section of the front was abandoned, what kind of contingent was on the defensive there, and why, after a light shelling, the whole unit retreats, and does not hold the position. Usually as a result of just such a “retreat” people die even more.
https://t.me/rybar/46955
Posted by: Down South | May 12 2023 16:13 utc | 21
We don’t know the reasons for what we are seeing.
We do know that the current situation around Bakmuth looks an awful lot like the situation around Kharkiv last year:
– Ukraine piles up tens of thousands of troups along with tanks and artillery, for weeks on end.
– bloggers warn for weeks about a massive attack in the making, even predict (correct!!!) dates for the attack
– the Russian generals appear completely surprised, have nothing prepared, no defense lines to speak of, not nearly enough experienced soldiers, not enough ammo, no second, no third line of defense. The Russian military bureaucracy chose to instead NOT prepare for an offensive in the South, which, when it starts, will surise them equally.
(Suggestion to Putin: for the next round of mobilization, start by sending your generals and those clueless MoD- bureaucrats into the trenches. Right in front the next Ukrainian force buildup. So they see exactly what the Russian soldiers at the front see, before they die.)
Coming soon:
– for a couple weeks, optimists will speculate that Russia has prepared a trap which will spring when enough clueless Ukrainians have walked into it
– after losing Bakmuth and Donezk and Melitopol, they will start doubting their theories and instead argue that the new front lines are now easier to defend etc etc etc
– when the UK, pardon me, Ukraine, no sorry, terrorists, blow up the Ketsch bridge, this time for good, Putin will be furious and waste an awful lot of money blowing up some Ukrainian infrastructure that is completely irrelevant for the war. Instead of, say, bridges or railway junctions that would actually make it more difficult for Ukraine to move troups.
– winter freezes the Ukrainian attacks, Russia starts posting daily “successes” again – a barn blown up here, an oaktree destroyed there, fifty square meters of Marinka captured and another twenty Ukrainian soldiers killed, leaving Selensky with only 499980 for next year’s offensive.
Maybe its different this time. But April and May this year look an awful lot like August and September last year.

Posted by: Marvin | May 13 2023 4:40 utc | 206

Scorpion #3:47 utc | 201

Meanwhile, I continue to believe – or hope – that one of RF’s goals is to engender internal political turmoil in Western nations, principally Germany who at some point might push for proper sovereignty and join Belt and Road.

Poland first and maybe simultaneously the Baltic poodles would be my idea of a good BBQ. By then Germany might have realised its blunder and perhaps reconsidered its vassal relationship to the USA. Not holding my breath as this is a looooong process of unravelling the EU snake and then the NATO lizard. That reconfiguration is pretty much up to them as I doubt Russia has any intention of kinetic fuckery with them in the immediate term. Mind you Russia is likely receptive to accommodating much of their heavy energy form of engineering needs should they ask nicely, pay in Roubles, bypass any transport corridor via Poland, and integrate their manufacturing plant with Russian materials science research. Germany and a few others might shed their US bases too.
Perhaps Poland stands out as being in NEED of extraordinary persuasion but they could resolve their issues at the ballot box sooner rather than later. I personally don’t mind if they sink under the Baltic waves.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 13 2023 4:54 utc | 208

Sigh!
1. Alleged Strom attack in LPR, probably fake. UK/US/France scaled down and did not repeat their strike against the Assad regime when Syrian AD took down all missiles and Russia threaten to take down launching vehicles.
2. Definition of a “Counter Offensive”
“In the study of military tactics, a counter-offensive is a large-scale strategic offensive military operation, usually by forces that had successfully halted the enemy’s offensive, while occupying defensive positions.
The counter-offensive is executed after exhausting the enemy’s front line troops and after the enemy reserves had been committed to combat and proven incapable of breaching defenses, but before the enemy has had the opportunity to assume new defensive positions. Sometimes the counter-offensive can be of a more limited operational maneuver nature, with more limited objectives rather than those seeking attainment of a strategic goal”. (Wikipedia)
The RF has NOT gone into a general or local “Offensive” for a “Counter Offensive” to take place.
3. Patriot took down Kinzhal. BS! Aegis ships and Aegis ashore couldn’t even track, must less shoot down Nth Korean Ballistic missile tests.https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/radar-evading-ballistic-missiles-from-north-korea-aegis-air-defence-system-fails-to-track-new-projectiles
4. Kinzhal/NATO 200+ KIA. Not on any RF clobber list.
There’re many things I don’t know, but I’m certain there’s going to be less NATO proxies operating on the entire front line than there were today and that makes me happy.
This is the RF situation on the Front as of 11th May https://sputnikglobe.com/20230511/russias-special-military-operation-in-ukraine-and-how-it-is-progressing-1105665248.html

Posted by: Suresh | May 13 2023 5:18 utc | 210

Turkey and its elections will be the place to watch in the near future. The gas hub deal with Russia to bypass nazi eastern Europe and the Anglo blockade there and western Europe can buy ‘Turk’ piped gas rather than Russian piped gas or expensive US LNG. There is also the matter of Turkey Syria moving towards normalizing relations which will make them allies against the US and its Kurd proxies. Also the matter of getting Nato ships through to the black sea.
I assume there will be at massive anglo effort at subversion and interference.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 13 2023 5:22 utc | 212

@ uncle tungsten 213
As in all life , disrespect has to be countered. If Nato Atlantacafantacists want to play war games with tin soldiers, they have to be disabused of their dreams, and no amount of China asking Russia to stop disabusing Atlantasatanists from playibg war games is going to stop Russia from enforcing some proper respect.
The idea that an evil and entirely self interested Empire thousands of miles away can satisfy European pangs of regret at losing their colonial power and influence is the wrong way of looking at life. Jeremy Corbyn understood that the being empire-free and trading fairly with the world is better by far than exploiting your own colonies OR becoming a colony of the US.
But the EU poodles wanted Empire and now they’ve got it and are being treated like a small African state lured into genocide.
Ukraine is merely the US empire responding to EU dreams of power with war in Europe.
As Corbyn wisely understood, the only way not to be used as toy tin soldiers by the new evil Empire of lies, is to relinquish your dreams of empire.
Something the Empire 2 British Tories are finding it hard to give up.

Posted by: Giyane | May 13 2023 5:31 utc | 214

Perhaps Poland stands out as being in NEED of extraordinary persuasion but they could resolve their issues at the ballot box sooner rather than later. I personally don’t mind if they sink under the Baltic waves.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 13 2023 4:54 utc | 211
Well, my little thesis was predicated on the assumption that military kinetics will remain within Ukraine (as was). The regime changes will occur because of domestic cratering of the status quo opening the door to a wave of long overdue reforms. This will take time. Another reason why RF has no motivation to advance beyond the current oblasts who voted to join the Russian Federation. As long as the enemy is coming to them in the Donbass, or maybe soon probing towards Crimea, they can wage a war of attrition part of which involves military logistics and personnel on the ground, but most of which is more slowly playing out in the geopolitical non-military theater, i.e. more of an economic and cultural conflict. I don’t believe that RF has any interest in entering and conquering other nations with different languages etc. What they want is a multipolar world order with peace on her borders.
One irony here, seemingly, is that to unify the world first they have to divide it. The sanctions (aka trade war) now underway is basically cutting off the West from easy global pickings as the BRICS et alia nations increase their own internal trade flows. This will weaken the West considerably – though again these things take time – and thus (my thesis again) cause internal domestic cratering that will engender needed reforms. RF cannot make any of this happen in these many other foreign nations, but at least they can lead a coalition of those willing to isolate the West in order to immediately reduce their ability to dominate and meddle whilst simultaneously seizing the initiative in building a different international modus vivendi with well over half the world, moreover the part with the most resources and growth momentum, not to mention relative political stability and cultural cohesiveness. As far as I can tell, this is going extremely well and basically they have already ‘won.’ The only wild card is how desperately destructive the West is willing to get. (Another reason to keep the kinetics in Donbass, not advancing far but steadily wearing out resistance.)
Some Russian commenters are saying that the grumblings from Bahkmut etc. are significant indicating weakness in the Russian leadership, even traitors from their own Deep State networks etc. and there may be truth to that. Texas Bentley, though very loyal, has been extremely critical for over a year now, even more so of late reportedly, because he feels that RF has been dragging their heels all along (and states that the MoD reports are total BS), but again I don’t see how RF has any need or desire to advance too far because it might make an already huge front even more unmanageable than it already almost is – not to mention provoke more European states to up the ante and send in troops. But again, they have no territorial ambitions which will just bring more headaches. (Crimea to Vladivostok with its 11 time zones is enough!) This may well prove extremely frustrating to those on the ground in Donbass who naturally wish the front to push straight to Kiev ASAP and be done with it already.
I suppose the big schlusselpunkt is going to be whether or not Ukraine can mount a serious counterattack into Donbass, or more importantly Crimea, AND THEN BE ABLE TO HOLD any such advances and then later go further. This seems extremely unlikely right now, but time will tell. That said, if they cannot advance and hold such territories, the geopolitical siege warfare with continue its longer, slower grind and people on the ground in Donbass will continue to grind their teeth with frustration at Moscow’s slow grind approach.
This is probably going to take 10-20 years or some such, but what do I know? Except, as I often speculate here, the West is also working on the same agenda, namely their elites crashing their own nation states in order to Build Back Better. If this is indeed a Grand Coalition type play, then the whole thing might play out in only a few years. We shall see.

Posted by: Scorpion | May 13 2023 5:46 utc | 216

Women are hypergamous, and always have been. It’s a fundamental truth of the relationship between the sexes.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 13 2023 2:33 utc | 192
Actually its a fundamental of the fact that there are classes in the first place and humans will do what they need to to survive in such a parasitic system. You don’t show much understanding of society or women in your rants.
As for presidents or any powerful men (or women) they abuse people in “lower classes” because they can and with impunity. it is about power and not primarily for sex.

Posted by: K | May 13 2023 5:52 utc | 218

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ #Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 12 May 2023⚡️
🔹 One of the Main Events in the SMO Zone was the missile strike on #Lugansk on Republic Day. To be honest, we are not sure that the strike was carried out by the Thunder-2 missile defense System. In the Ukrainian theater of operations, the United States and Great Britain are working on promising ways to break through the enemy’s air defence and defences in the face of the RF Armed Forces as part of a massive missile and artillery strike. And the use of air-based deception missiles is poorly connected with the use of OTRC (operational-tactical missile complex).
🔹 As for the fighting, in #Bakhmut, the PMC units continued to bite into the defence, while to the north, the units of the RF Armed Forces performed a “maneuver” and left the occupied lines.
🔹 And the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed one bridge.

https://t.me/sitreports/8567

Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 5:55 utc | 220

Children and their parents were taken from the front-line village of Krasnorechenskoye, which is located very close to the front line, to rest in Anapa.
Thanks to the energy and efforts of Anna Yuryevna, the military personnel who are on the Kremennaya-Svatovo line, the assistance of the Ministry of Defense, United Russia, the departure of the children happened and was successful. The departure was prepared for a month, taking into account all the risks.
In Krasnorechenskoye, the humanitarian situation is difficult due to the proximity of the settlement to the LBS. Kuznetsova has been engaged in this systematic work for a long time. Children and parents are taken out of places with a difficult humanitarian situation in the resort areas of Russia.

https://t.me/epoddubny/15933

We still took them out and the children and their parents will finally be safe and able to rest!
There is no communication with some villages, and it is extremely dangerous and difficult to get there. There are those who really need help, but it is extremely difficult to do this. Only our soldiers go there. They carry medicines, food, but every day from the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine they fly to residential buildings. Of course, families with children have the hardest time there. Therefore, if there is a connection with the military, then we will arrange for families with children to go on vacation until the acute situation passes.
But there are situations when there is no way … There is simply no connection, and you can’t get there yourself. About one such territory and talked with Evgeny Poddubny. And he took it and went, brought the necessary information and we were able to start the work! Children with their parents were forced to be transported in small groups, in armored vehicles. There was no question of a bus, even if we wrote “CHILDREN”, the enemy would not care, he would hit the children too …
The road was not close, we drove to Rubizhnoye, whose residents were also helped to leave the territory for a while. It was they who finally dispelled the “horror stories” that were pumped up the people in Ukraine about the “terrible Russians.” Before leaving, they talked with their parents: “We were told that they would take you out and you would disappear forever!”
But now it’s all over. The children got on the bus and went to rest. The partners of our headquarters, the public organization “Healthy Fatherland” periodically send videos of how children travel, enjoy simple things, including eating normally. And we continue to work and thank everyone who helps!

https://t.me/wargonzo/12488

Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 6:01 utc | 222

To Elmer Fudd @103
Look at this . This link contains information on the congenital abnormalities many blame on DU.
https://truthout.org/articles/fallujah-babies-birth-defects-blamed-on-us-weapons/
You would not want this stuff where your family lives.

Posted by: Judge Barbier | May 13 2023 6:06 utc | 224

For example, “wargonzo” had re-reported a telegram post of another such Telegram “reporter” Anna KuZnetsoVa…and so on…They don’t have the real picture, might be just a part of it, and that part is so tiny…

Posted by: ostro | May 13 2023 6:09 utc | 226

Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 5:56 utc | 224

we must be ready for mass launches of Storms. Including with decoys, for overloading air defense.

Ha ha ha @ “mass launches”. Watch them bleed out of production capacity in a few days.
Await the mournful complaints from western talking heads around how “we have runout of stocks of stormshadow missiles but are preparing production contracts for future …” …
The West and their artisanal weapons systems.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 13 2023 6:18 utc | 228

That’s the most infuriating actually, seeing people just move over and repeat the same old tripe week after week,
Posted by: Micron | May 12 2023 20:07 utc | 106
Micropenis is infuriated and projecting like a typical jew

Posted by: Mike | May 13 2023 6:19 utc | 230

Re: Euros or USA collapse first ?
The societal divisions in the US are so enormous that USA will collapse first in a Spanish Civil War scenario. (My guess)
Note, that most Americans live precarious lives with hardly any economic security. Only a minuscule percentage of Americans aren’t burdened with obscene amounts of debt. Even the supposed prosperous upper middle class in the USA are always teetering on the edge of insolvency. Social bonds on America are also weak, since society is so geographically mobile.
Revolutions don’t happen when the poor become further impoverished; revolutions happen when the middle class becomes improverished.

Posted by: Exile | May 13 2023 6:43 utc | 232

Women are hypergamous, and always have been. It’s a fundamental truth of the relationship between the sexes.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 13 2023 2:33 utc | 192
Actually its a fundamental of the fact that there are classes in the first place and humans will do what they need to to survive in such a parasitic system. You don’t show much understanding of society or women in your rants.
As for presidents or any powerful men (or women) they abuse people in “lower classes” because they can and with impunity. it is about power and not primarily for sex.
Posted by: K | May 13 2023 5:52 utc | 221

Thank you K. It’s so refreshing when someone succinctly cuts through the bullshit spew that makes up an unfortunate amount of the postings on this site.

Posted by: Drinky Crow | May 13 2023 7:10 utc | 234

their elites crashing their own nation states in order to Build Back Better
You mean like Adolf Hitler and the Nazis destroying the German Reich so that the Federal Republic could be built in West Germany as the most prosperous and free German society in its history ?
Not sure that was his intent – but I suppose Adenauer who had been mayor of Cologne pre-Hitler did get to build his Rhineland Republic after 1949…………..
I don’t think “elites” believe anything they say – they chant mantras in the Temple of Money to keep their palms greased with silver …………since most Western politicians are trained lawyers they spout incantations without belief in veracity or meaning

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 13 2023 7:21 utc | 236

@Paul Greenwood
“I don’t think “elites” believe anything they say”
Actually, I think the opposite is true; there are, of course, always cynics, but usually, people tend to believe their own ideology, even and particularly among the elites – and this can become a problem, because they get caught in their own propaganda and are not longer able to make pragmatic decisions. The current EU politics towards Russia is a good example: not matter how this war will end, the EU will be much weaker and poorer afterwards; maybe I am missing something, but I find it hard to explain the current madness with an secret ulterior motive; the frightening thing is that people like Baerbock indeed see the world as a manichean struggle between democracy and autocracy in which no compromise or long term modus vivendi is possible – with all the horrifying results.

Posted by: Confused | May 13 2023 7:34 utc | 238

Arestovich confirmed our information from the Office of the President that in the upcoming counteroffensive we will bet on psychological operations, the purpose of which is to demoralize the enemy.
The main stake in the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is on the demoralization of the Russian army. If it can be achieved, then the forecasts about the Ukrainians reaching the borders of 1991 may come true this year, said Alexei Arestovich, a former adviser to the President’s Office.
But, if the Russians cannot be demoralized, then the war, in his opinion, will drag on. What does Zaluzhny say when assessing the counteroffensive that it is pointless to hope for a mass exodus.
“The main condition is a moral and psychological crisis in the Russian group, so that it, as they say, crumble. Because if it shows miracles of stamina and heroism, then it will be very difficult to fight them. And then we take the skeptical position of General Milli, who says that this year is unlikely,” Arestovich said in an interview with journalist Vasily Golovanov.
He goes on to describe how, in his opinion, the “demoralization strategy” could work if the Ukrainian army enters the border with Crimea.
According to Arestovich, if the Armed Forces of Ukraine approach the peninsula and start shelling it, “this should provoke a certain crisis within Russia,” and Putin will have to make a decision “either to escalate or de-escalate.”
If no decision is made in Russia, but they continue to fight in the same format, then Arestovich predicts the next few offensives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (which other Ukrainian speakers recently spoke about, who called for not considering the planned offensive “decisive”).
Separately, it should be clarified that Zaluzhny is skeptical about assessing the effectiveness of the psychological component and offers more thoughtful operations.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17728

Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 7:43 utc | 240

One of the reasons why Zelensky is delaying the counteroffensive is the awareness of the risks of negative scenarios. Now this has become an obvious factor for everyone, and a month ago, only political telegram channels wrote about it.
The level of Western support for Ukraine depends on the success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and in the event of a military failure, Kyiv will be pushed to negotiate with Russia. The Financial Times writes about this with reference to Ukrainian officials.
https://t.me/resident_ua/17360
In particular, to the deputy head of the Office of the President Andrei Sibigu. “This is a defining moment for us. The level of Western support depends on our success. The more we achieve on the battlefield, the more we get from partners,” he says.
More privately, Ukrainian officials use rhetoric they themselves describe as “extremely realistic and pragmatic.”
They admit that Ukraine is unlikely to be able to return all the lost territories, at least not this year, writes FT.
There are also fears that a failed counteroffensive could call into question further Western military assistance. In that case, Ukraine’s allies could also start pushing harder for peace talks with Russia.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17730

Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 7:45 utc | 242

Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 7:43 utc | 243

Separately, it should be clarified that Zaluzhny is skeptical about assessing the effectiveness of the psychological component and offers more thoughtful operations.

He need not worry. Prighozin has proven to be the deadliest weapon of psychological destruction the West could hope for.
There’s an example of the truism that even heroes may live long enough to turn into villains.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 13 2023 7:59 utc | 244

The psy-ops that are supposed to accompany or perhaps be the main feature of the proposed Ukrainian Offensive seem laughable.
The Ukrainian armed forces say BOO and the Russians flee to Vladivostok?
Doesn’t sound very convincing to me, but what would I know? Only those in the arrogant Western leadership group would believe that tripe. It seems incredibly racist to think that that might be even possible.

Posted by: ZimZum | May 13 2023 8:15 utc | 246

“US officials believe Russians picked up on signals emitted from the Patriot, allowing them to target the system using a hypersonic missile” CNN continues…
The thing is the Russians had not yet used the “Kinhzal”, the dagger…and, once they do, the Patriot system would be dead.
Ah, by the way, if the Patriot system is so good, why the buildings in Kiev get hit? And further away in the west, Lvov gets hit?

Posted by: ostro | May 13 2023 8:23 utc | 248

the frightening thing is that people like Baerbock indeed see the world as a manichean struggle between democracy and autocracy in which no compromise or long term modus vivendi is possible – with all the horrifying results.
Posted by: Confused | May 13 2023 7:34 utc | 241

Agreed on Baerbock but she doesn’t decide. Her world view is simplicistic to an extreme level but that’s why she has the job, part of which is to alienate the Eastern bloc (she’s really good at that: I have doubts if future German diplomats can fix what she’s destroying right now). However, Baerbock is only an agent, like Scholz, Biden etc. I am not telling you there’s a puppet master behind the scenes pulling the strings but I think it’s pretty obvious that these guys are not primary actors.
It’s looking grim for Germans, no question about that. Guess they will find a way to cope with the inevitable, it has happened before…

Posted by: Konami | May 13 2023 8:31 utc | 250

Just woke up this morning done the usual MSM check then seen the headlines. Russia is retreating blah blah meanwhile the cocksucker has flown to Italy rather than be there to lead his troops. This narrative is perfect for the RF as even my Facebook of all places more sheep are waking up and cannot understand the MSM anymore. They have lost the plot. My wife spoke to a conscript from Poland on the border and there is huge anger in the polish army. They know exactley what is going on and the one name that comes up is the USA. This story narrative cannot keep running its course as people know it’s a lie. Even my
Mother says Nazi Ukraine now. So as I alluded to RF will love media spin meanwhile when it’s effort is over RF will deploy 1/2 million and run Ukraine out. How the MSM will sell defeat I don’t know but there is gonna be a lot of sad faces in the west. It is now 100% confirmed in my view this is the end game of Ukraine.

Posted by: Scot1and | May 13 2023 8:34 utc | 252

Posted by: karlof1 | May 12 2023 22:03 utc | 141
Thank you Karlof I am dutifully reminded of the late great revolutionary Fidel Castro’s correct prediction some years ago and I quote ” The next war in Europe (after WW2) will be between Russia and Fascism, except that fascism will be called democracy “.

Posted by: Rick | May 13 2023 8:38 utc | 254

zero hedge has an article on senate hearings of hypersonic program. tried to post link and comment but it dissapeared . maybe it doesnt like that link. but the essence is USA talked up the program stating patriots took down a hypersonic from RF. i thought these guys have professional reputations that would stop them from actually swallowing the lies they might feed the citizens. but alas

Posted by: hankster | May 13 2023 8:44 utc | 256

karlof1 | May 13 2023 1:42 utc | 188
Would you indulge me, please…what do you mean … “Then came Chicago”.
Can only plead ignorance, as I was too young to be cognisant of JFK/RFK; monumentous American news of course made it all the way here, even in the 1960s, but some of the nuance, details and background are lost in the mid-Pacific….

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 13 2023 8:45 utc | 258

One down, two to go>
US State Department #3 Wendy Sherman resigns:
https://www.rt.com/news/576210-biden-china-architect-resign/
Xi hasn’t taken Biden’s calls for months. That is a clear failure of US diplomacy.
Project Ukraine is still in the balance, Russia appears to be doing its best to falter, but revenge could be a dish they prefer served cold.
Are Blinken and Nuland next to be shown the door? We can only hope.

Posted by: Et Tu | May 13 2023 8:49 utc | 260

@ostro/262: Yes, that’s what makes me wonder. Converting their MiG-29 to use NATO weaponry is not a trivial task.
What’s somewhat interesting is a picture of remains of a MALD decoy missile found near the Lugansk factory that was hit – which is also air launched.

Posted by: Verdant | May 13 2023 8:55 utc | 262

What’s somewhat interesting is a picture of remains of a MALD decoy missile found near the Lugansk factory that was hit – which is also air launched.
Posted by: Verdant | May 13 2023 8:55 utc | 265

The standard method is to wait 2-3 days, until the “info” is officially stated/verified. It is still a war…

Posted by: ostro | May 13 2023 9:00 utc | 264

This war is getting weirder and weirder. Now the Ukies are calling Prigozhin a liar and apparently defending the honour of the regular Russian forces. From The Telegraph:
Ukrainian Armed Forces Storm Battalion Commander ‘Rollo’ told CNN: “Prigozhin is a liar, because the first to flee were Wagner. It was his units that fled, and our success is not due to the fact that they fled but the fact that we conducted a planned assault by circumventing and cutting them off.
“Actually, the unit he is bad-mouthing fought to the end, his Wagners were the first to flee.”

Posted by: Jonathan W | May 13 2023 9:11 utc | 266

@Verdant – 268
Even Izvestiya, Komsomolskaya Pravda is full of “storm shadow” info att the moment. Some even publish photos. But, Russian forces had downed this missile in Syria in 2018.
Or, otherwise, this “info” is used for some other reason, which we don’t still know. So, I wait…till Monday…

Posted by: ostro | May 13 2023 9:17 utc | 268

@Posted by: Joe | May 12 2023 20:32 utc | 113
And it’s not comparable because the USA will lay waste to civilian populations without any hesitation, from the time they genocided American natives centuries ago until modern wars against Japan, Vietnam, or Iraq. Russia is clearly not doing this, and if they did then major cities in the Ukraine would have been nothing but craters last year.
And it should be remembered that this American doctrine of unlimited genocidal warfare doesn’t even bring victory, since the USA has never won a real modern war aside from the Pacific war against Japan (Americans just enjoy killing large numbers of people even if it has no strategic value because Americans tend to be sadistic monsters). Russia focuses on winning wars, not murdering millions of people for no reason. This seems to work because, unlike the USA, Russia wins wars.

Posted by: FVK | May 13 2023 9:37 utc | 270

Z was turned down by the BBC but he is now in Rome speaking with the Pope and Meloni and President Mattarella.

Posted by: Jonathan W | May 13 2023 9:45 utc | 272

Some further signs that this war is getting weirder and weirder: Z told the BBC that the counter-offensive will be delayed (and Z was nixed by the BBC). The very next day the Financial Times reported as its lede story: “Ukrainian counter-offensive takes shape with first gains around Bakhmut”. The third paragraph then states: “Kyiv denied that its counter-offensive was under way”.

Posted by: Jonathan W | May 13 2023 10:03 utc | 274

⚡️⚡️ Remember we wrote about how quickly the Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian brigade turned into a corps?
In the photo of the deputy commander of the 5th US Army Corps, Major General Adam Jox is already inspecting the headquarters of the Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian corps being formed in the city of Lublin. Naturally, we understand that an American general of this level is not engaged in military tourism, especially when he is one of the leaders of the ongoing Griffin Shock-23 exercise.
Recall that from May 8 to May 26, the 5th Corps of the US Army is conducting a major Griffin Shock-23 exercise in Poland at the Bemowo Piske training ground.
The NATO multinational corps “North-East” (Szczecin) and the NATO combat battalion group in Poland (1.2 thousand military personnel, Orzysz) take part in it. More than 3,000 servicemen from Poland, the USA, Romania, Great Britain and Croatia are involved in the training grounds near Poznan, Szczecin and Orzysz.

https://t.me/ZeRada1/13679

The creation of a joint corps is taking place within the framework of the Warsaw Union, as a pilot project, which should be further scaled up into a joint army of the two countries.
Negotiations between Prosha and Ukraine continue, now there is a discussion of the public part of the union, which should create a new state entity.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17732

Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 10:18 utc | 276

This is probably going to take 10-20 years or some such, but what do I know? Except, as I often speculate here, the West is also working on the same agenda, namely their elites crashing their own nation states in order to Build Back Better. If this is indeed a Grand Coalition type play, then the whole thing might play out in only a few years. We shall see.
Posted by: Scorpion | May 13 2023 5:46 utc | 219
That’s what some Russian experts say. Russia shouldn’t be in a rush. Neither no one in Russia is interested in a frontline from Crimea all the way to the Barents sea. China Vs Taiwan, Iran Vs Azerbaijan if ever happen should redirect attention of the west in this conflict. Plus there is a possibility of a financial collapse of the west. Unfortunately, there are too many IFs at the moment.
I’d disagree with you about Russia not being interested in other regions though. I think if Russia gets what it wants in Ukraine, it might involve Transnistria and possibly Gagauzia or the whole of Moldova. The corridor to Kaliningrad region through Lithuania if things get bigger or just wipe all the Baltics off. Kazakhstan has all the chances to be involved too since it has a lot of British influence. Recently, one tiny group of ethnic Russians from Kazakhstan announced Petropavlovsk region’s sovereignity. Surely enough it was not mentioned by any big media but Kazakhstan has a high probability to get into conflict sometime in the future. At least Zhirinovsky predicted it. Life for ethnic Russians there only gets worse. You can see some Kazakhs wearing Azov badges in public. It’ll explode one day. But surely, if you mean Europe proper, Russia isn’t interested in that at all.

Posted by: Yuri | May 13 2023 10:28 utc | 278

According to Italian media, the Ukrainian president has arrived in Rome. An Italian Air Force plane had taken Volodymyr Selenskyj on board in the southeastern Polish airport in Rzeszow near the Ukrainian border and brought him to the Italian capital, where it landed at the Ciampino military airport.
According to Corriere della Sera, Selenskyj was received by Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani (Forza Italia) and Ukrainian Ambassador to Italy Yaroslav Melnyk. The visit to Rome was “an important visit for the coming victory of Ukraine,” Selenskyj wrote on Twitter
According to media reports, around 1,500 police officers and security personnel are being deployed to ensure that the state visit runs smoothly. Airports, train stations and the subway are being specially controlled. A no-fly zone has been set up over the city, including for drones. Snipers are positioned everywhere where Selenskyj is expected.
The pope as mediator?
The exact schedule of Selenskyj’s visit was not made public for security reasons, but the Vatican confirmed shortly before Selenskyj’s arrival that there would also be a meeting with the pope. This is expected to be the most important part of the visit.
Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/wolodymyr-selenskyj-in-rom-eingetroffen-a-97ad8d0e-dfd9-4fa6-9434-b12ec8b0ae71
.

Posted by: BonfireNight | May 13 2023 10:44 utc | 280

War and winning are not reconcilable concepts. You fight war to survive by destroying the threats you perceive at whatever cost.
Britain fought two world wars and survived bankrupt and with huge debts and loss of territory. It gained nothing whatsoever – it left future generations economically poorer and subject to financial repression – U.K. had exchange controls 1949-1979 and you could not own gold or have more than £50 in foreign currency
Russia has to drive military threats from its borders by expanding the sanitary zone Stalin acquired after 1945 and making it a DMZ which should improve prosperity of nations not buying weapons on credit from US and S Korea
It then needs to have an umbrella protectorate over independent states formed from former USSR to secure its region
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 13 2023 5:38 utc | 218
I cannot agree more…
It is apparent that recently Ukie casualties now exceed 1500/day.
Ukie wounded are sent to abandoned, decrepit sanatoria where there is no care, no food, nothing on which to sleep, by their own government.
Ukie dead receive no survivor’s benefits.
Ukie religious faithful see their churches burned, their priests humiliated, imprisoned, and worse.
Meanwhile, the international sanctions war goes awry… RSA just summoned the US Ambassador to give him a tongue lashing over his claims WRT a Russian cargo ship. The US Congress is considering enacting a law to frustrate Syria returning from the cold… Georgia just ignored US / NATO pressure to stop direct flights between itself and Russia… KSA just exchanged ambassadors with Iran… Imran Khan’s arrest was ruled illegal…
I anticipate China working out a way for Argentina to nullify it’s IMF debt…
I anticipate China working out a way for it’s own chip makers to fill the void left by US pressure on Samsung to not ship chips to China.
China will work out a solution to the pending SE Asia rice crisis, via controlled releases of upstream water storage on the Mekong..
Russia/China continue to build and launch more naval vessels…
While NATO digs through the bowels of it’s arsenal, for crumbs to deliver to Ukraine, much of which never makes it to the front because it is destroyed in transit.
While NATO dribs and drabs launches of this and that “wonder weapon” providing Russia/China with practice in destroying/nullifying same….
While RosAtom fields reactors designed to burn spent nuclear fuel, converting what was waste into power.
While NATO goes “Green” and EV… regardless of the fact that sufficient power to run their economies is lacking..
Looks like a slow motion train wreck to me….
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 13 2023 10:45 utc | 282

Our source in the OP said that the main task of the counter-offensive near Bakhmut is to regain control of the city, in order for the operation to be considered successful, we must surround Wagner’s positions along the perimeter.
Syrsky promised Zelensky that he would be able to free Bakhmut using the experience of the Kharkov counteroffensive, forcing the enemy to leave the city.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17733

Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 10:51 utc | 284

“During today’s attack on Lugansk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine again used British Storm Shadow cruise missiles, – said LPR Colonel Marochko.”

Posted by: rk | May 13 2023 11:11 utc | 286

“Ukraine will run out of fighting men ?”
No they won’t as there are no such thing in Ukraine as mercenaries. They are NATO troops.
Poland has just created 300k. A lot of which are probably now in Ukraine. Nobody has even scratched the surface yet of how many NATO troops are actually in Ukraine. The figures on the Pentagon leak were a farce. The true figure could be over 100k. Who can tell you the actual figure ?

Posted by: Derek Henry | May 13 2023 11:14 utc | 288

Exile @ 278
Will point out a couple you are likely aware of but that should be said aloud. The $2 million house is built of particleboard and plastic. In the mildest of downturns operating costs become impossible and all potential buyers vanish. Value of that house drops 50% in a heartbeat and that family is underwater. The cars get sold cheap, leased cars returned. They are stupid impractical expensive to maintain cars made only for bubble wealth. On and on. What currently looks like prosperity for at least a few per cent is quite fragile.
The landscaping costs you mention are normal to modest. That there are still idiots doing the 1/2 mil kitchen remodels is just amazing. There is a large class of construction workers dependent on that and many of them don’t know much about actually building or making things, just the specialized care and feeding of idiots with these pseudo-houses.

Posted by: oldhippie | May 13 2023 11:17 utc | 290

https://www.kp.ru/daily/27502.5/4761968/
What’s Really Happening with Ukraine’s Counteroffensive: Armed Forces Movements, Zelensky’s Lies, and Harvest Time for Russia
Military expert Borzenko said that Zelensky is lying about the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Ukrainian President Zelensky has said that the widely publicized counter-offensive in the West is once again being postponed. Because – according to his version – more time is needed for preparation.
What is really happening? We talked about this on Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda in the program of Ivan Pankin and Igor Vittel with Alexei Borzenko, a military expert and deputy editor-in-chief of Literaturnaya Rossiya.
What is happening with the counter-offensive of Ukraine
THE LIE OF ZELENSKY
Why is Zelensky postponing a counteroffensive?
– Zelensky is lying. There is no postponement. There is a period of accumulation of forces and means before the offensive.
Are we tracking it?
– Yes. Before any offensive there is such a phase – the transfer of troops. Everything that has been accumulated for several months by the Armed Forces of Ukraine 200 kilometers from the line of contact is now being transferred to the line 40 kilometers away.
– Is this process painful for the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
– Certainly! There are warehouses from where the transfer of ammunition comes from. It’s all open now. We see it from space. And we strike at the columns that are moving towards the front line. Here in the Kharkiv region, “Leopards” were discovered.
– Harvest time?
– The enemy can be openly destroyed by missiles.
– Examples?
– The night of May 8-9, when we hit more than 60 targets. Basically, through the opened warehouses with ammunition, with equipment, with howitzers. There is an active phase of destruction.
– Why 40 kilometers?
– 30-35 kilometers – this is the limit of our artillery. This is already front, but not quite advanced. Now they are moving everything along this line. And the line of contact is 816 kilometers.
WHEN THE APU COUNTEROFFENSIVE BEGINS
– So when is the offensive?
– There are 5 days left. Maybe a week. When they have transferred everything, the offensive itself will begin.
– What are the obvious signs?
– The Nikolaev garrison, Odessa, Kharkov – they leave parts to defend Kyiv, and they rake everything else with a shovel and throw it in the direction of the offensive.
– What is their advantage?
– At the tip, a grouping of about 200, a maximum of 220 thousand. There is almost no one else to mobilize.
– And from Western Ukraine?
– There are other things. Since October, we have been digging into the ground and created a powerful line of defense, to a depth of 60 kilometers. And any offensive – they are no more than 30 km. Where, in what place they will cut in, try to rip open our defenses – it’s hard to say.
– Well, they’ll try to crash. – And what?
– At a distance of 5-10 kilometers, there may be a blow to the width of the line of contact. But they will get stuck.
– When will they stop?
– This is a golden time for our aviation. We can apply what we used in Aleppo in Syria, when they demolished quarter after quarter with the help of our strategists – Tu-160 (White Swan) and Tu-95.
RUSSIA’S RESPONSE TO UKRAINE’S COUNTEROFFENSIVE
– Enough bombs?
– There are a huge number of printed bombs in Crimea. And not only in the Crimea. These are FABs, KABs, five hundredths, thousandths, two thousandths. Even under the USSR, a huge number of them were stamped.
– They were made planners?
– Yes. These bombs don’t go off. They don’t get caught on radar. They do not have thermal kinetic energy, ejection. They are not seen when they fall.
– Here, ballistic missiles were also delivered to Kyiv
– Storm Shadow, cruise missiles, they hit 500 kilometers. Prior to this, the UK transmitted ATACMS. But the fact is that these Anglo-French missiles, 560 kilometers away, have been made since 1994. This is just the Anglo-French equivalent of the Tomahawk. How they work, I saw in Yugoslavia.
– And How?
– Storm Shadow missile is launched from aircraft. Comes out from a great height, then descends. Goes low profile. Before reaching the target, he makes a “candle” of 5 kilometers. And hits the target. She’s from the “fire and forget” section. It follows the GPS coordinate system.
– How to answer London, which supplied these missiles to Kyiv?
– We can close the Northern Sea Route for them – for all ships, both military and non-military. While the ships are moving. We even conduct them with our icebreakers. By the way, Britain turned out to be generally very dependent on all its neighbors. We just don’t use all the options that we could.
– In the end – will there be a counteroffensive next week?
– Yes, they are preparing to attack. Now the time is coming. The whole course of events in Ukraine will depend on how we react, how we destroy their units approaching the line of contact during the preparatory period, and how we carry out this operation of resistance to this offensive and retaliatory actions.

Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | May 13 2023 11:23 utc | 292

Exile @ 278
Another addition to your excellent comment. Back in 2008 I had a neighbor in my building who worked for a local high-end car dealership. When the bubble burst nearly all of the 12 cylinder German cars they had sold in the previous three years came back. The dealer did not attempt to sell those cars cheap. Maintenance pigs and only built for showing off. All of those cars were scrapped within a year. No way to even justify the cost of a parking space.
Much easier to operate an economy built on baubles than value.

Posted by: oldhippie | May 13 2023 11:28 utc | 294

Our aviation group was ambushed.
To the guys of eternal flight, responsible for the border – a stalk in a point.
And yes, they launched rockets from the Chernihiv region, approaching almost tightly to the state border.

https://t.me/voenacher/44519

So, two Mi-8s, one Su-34, and probably another Su-25 are lost.
Let me remind you that quite recently, literally, for days, individual citizens informed us that the military correspondents were aggravating the situation, that there was no offensive, that the situation was normal, the enemy’s activity was standard.
And the military correspondents, they say, hurried with their assessments.
So it wasn’t they who hurried, it’s just an indicator that you can’t live in the past and think in terms of yesterday.
The modern offensive is not thousands of tank columns, led by General Von Bock with a monocle. It is exactly like that.
Lugansk yesterday, a blow to our Air Force today. Feeling the defense. Where it breaks. And strikes on the rear, infrastructure and aviation.
They said on the air a hundred times and wrote – the enemy has air defense, the enemy may have a weak air force, but long-range missiles will replace it.
There is no need to panic now. Conclusions must be drawn. Especially for those who believe that flight routes should not be changed so that the documents are not rewritten. Yes, there are.
Well, you need to prepare for the offensive even more seriously. Here it is, creepy.

https://t.me/wargonzo/12505

Posted by: Down South | May 13 2023 11:47 utc | 296

[278]
$25,000 Property Taxes
You forgot to mention how quirky Property Taxes can be in some states……….if you are in arrears they can seize your property and auction it away below market………or if someone comes and pays those arrears they can acquire title………..
It was once stated that nowhere on earth is Affluence less secure and one step away from Penury………….no maternity leave, no job security, and even at Investment Banker level the black bin liner can be on your desk on Monday morning for you to clear out
It also used to be 33% bankruptcies were due either to medical expenses or a serious car accident………..
Look at how many spinal injuries occur in USA annually from auto accidents………..

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 13 2023 12:12 utc | 298

Exile #278: Not trying to be a jerk here, but do you even live in the USA and if so have you ever lived outside of California or New York? Not that any of this is really material to the Ukraine topic, but…
Assets –
$2 million House try $500K
$1/2 million retirement Portfolio LMAO – No way. If I had $500K in my retirement accounts after the 2008 and most recent stock market fiascos, I’d retire right now. Most people have like $100K or less in their 40s and early 50s unless they are very high earners and have committed the maximum percentage allowable to their 401k/IRA since their late 20s. The median 401k value for people between the ages of 42-54 is $89K.
$1/2 million other stuff $500K on “other” (unnamed) “stuff”? Like what 4 late model Range Rovers and a boat? Nope.
—————————
$3 million Assets Try $1M max
Liabilities
$1 million Mortgage not unless they live in California or NYC. Again, more like $300K-$500K
$1/4 mm 2nd Mortgage ( kitchen and bathroom remodel)A $250K remodel? Come on. I know people who have had $1.4M homes remodeled extensively and it cost $125K max. The average is more like $40K and most people don’t do it that way at all. They do small projects over the years.
$1/2 mm College costs (2 kids) Paid for by the kids.
$1/4 mm Car Loans or Leases This is the real howler. You really think anyone “middle class” whether upper, middle or lower, has $250K worth of CAR loan debt? Again, what are they driving Ferraris, Mercedes AMG and Range Rovers x4?
$1/10 mm Credit Cards $7,400 is average US household credit card debt.
—————————
$2 million Liabilities Wrong. Way off.
$1 mm Net Wealth (assets minus liabilities)People can do their own math.
What are their big ticket annual fixed costs ?
$75,000 Mortgage on a $3M home maybe. On a $500K home it’s more like $36K/year at most.
$25,000 Property Taxes – in what state? the Red ones maybe where there is no state income tax
$10,000 Health Insurance deductible Probably accurate for a two income, two policy home. Probably underestimating it for families with multiple kids on the plan.
$25,000 Cars How does a family spend only $25K/year on $250K in car debt?
$10,000 Home maintence landscaping Maybe on a $2-3M home. Ours was $3,000/year on a 1/4 acre property including all maintenance and landscape contract before I bought a mower, string trimmer and leaf blower and started doing it myself.
$15,000 Utilities, Cable, Telephone Wut?? Telephone, assuming 3 persons in a household = $160/month. Utilities (gas, electric, Internet) = $250/month for a total of less than $5K/year. Maybe for an UPPER middle class McMansion type situation it gets closer to $10K.
All of which is to say that in some cases the upper middle class that lives beyond its means is even closer to illiquidity than your post would indicate, but that most of the actual middle class in the US is doing OK other than retirement savings (true worth/purchasing power) and other than if the housing market tanks leaving them underwater with no or little equity. I know a lot of relatively high rollers living in $1.3-2M homes and none of them have $250K in (combined household) automobiles so I’m not sure what you’re basing your information on.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 13 2023 12:15 utc | 300