MSM just admitted Bakhmut is strategically important. That varies depending on whether Ukraine can claim any success around that “strategically important” town.

Posted by: Jonathan W | May 12 2023 20:05 utc | 103

I don’t want to sound too negative, but to all those who confidently claim that Ukraine will run out of soldiers. I have seen the Z-crowd, including many barflies here, assert confidently since about March 2023 that the Ukrainians were “out of reserves”. Every month since last February, at every significant battle, the same refrain : “the Ukies have no reserves left… They are spending their last good forces…” Latest case in point, Bakhmut, where a month ago the usual suspects were claiming that Zelensky was sacrificing its elite troops to hold Bakhmut and pooh-poohing any notion of a counter offensive.
Fast forward to today, where, even if (thankfully) there was no huge breakthrough, still the Ukies did show that they had vast amounts of reserves they could could employ to reopen Bakhmut’s roads. And, like every time since Feb 2022, I have not seen ANYONE among those who one month ago were 100% sure Bakhmut would fall, eat crow and admit that they were wrong.
That’s the most infuriating actually, seeing people just move over and repeat the same old tripe week after week, without EVER acknowledging that their predictions have been way off the mark. Let’s not even talk of last year, where the general consensus here was that Odessa would quickly be in the bag. It really makes me wonder about the general irrationality of the average people.

Posted by: Micron | May 12 2023 20:07 utc | 105

” That’s the most infuriating actually, seeing people just move over and repeat the same old tripe week after week, without EVER acknowledging that their predictions have been way off the mark. Let’s not even talk of last year, where the general consensus here was that Odessa would quickly be in the bag. It really makes me wonder about the general irrationality of the average people.
Posted by: Micron | May 12 2023 20:07 utc | 106 ”
Welcome to the bar where delusions are on the house. We also offer bourbon and copium with shots of denial.

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 12 2023 20:15 utc | 107

I live on the west coast of the US. i don’t know what’s going on in Ukraine.
let’s play devil’s advocate and assume that governments lie, financial numbers are fake.
but resident troll Deplorable Nazi Czar pointed out in another thread that Russia has not censored the internet.
what country in the world has a president who openly brags about how women like to be sexually assaulted by superstars like himself? and on the witness stand!
look at the prison population and the people ensnared in the carceral system in the US.
look at the ruling class fomenting another front, or trying to, in Taiwan. and with bow-tied spokespoodles like George Will wannabe Tucker Carlson clamoring for war on China via war on Mexico. The US started a war on Russia’s border, and by some miracle b/c that endeavor is going so well, it’s starting another war, on its own border. as a prelude to a 3rd war, w/China. all after being kicked out of Afghanistan.
Does this look like a country where things are going well?
I don’t need to know a goddam thing about Russia to know that the ruling class of the west has no other option than to escalate. “driven by chthonic powers…” they face Macbeth’s dilemma – turning back against the bloody tide is now too difficult.
did I mention the war on shoplifters? among many other examples i could namme. Wal Mart needs more cops! otherwise this functioning democracy might not function so well.
parts of the world got some version of what used to be “V-E day” this week, Monday IIRC.
we in the US got “Fentanyl Awareness Day.” and state after state clamoring for less education and more child labor.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | May 12 2023 20:22 utc | 109

@ Zet | May 12 2023 20:23 utc | 111
You betcha!

Posted by: natokraine | May 12 2023 20:29 utc | 111

Thanks, Zet. IMO it would be worth sharing. I know you have to give an email to post here, but directly sharing or giving out that might be risky. We are being watched, for sure, by the spooks and I’d assume those email addresses are being harvested. Burner email addresses are a reasonable countermeasure.
Remember that Ukraine is a testing ground for what is to come. Yesterday, Lira; tomorrow maybe they come for Ritter or Mercouris, and then the other bloggers and commentariat.
There are one-time or anonymous email aliases that can probably be safely shared, but I don’t have enough background to say what is safe and what isn’t. Other thought is to share directly with B and let him decide if he wants to make it generally available.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 12 2023 20:34 utc | 113

Laughing out loud. Again: speking of missed deadlines. Who was it that said that the Moscow Stock Exchange would blow up in March 2022? Or that the Russian economy is tatters? Answers: Joe Biden. Ursula von der Leyen. And now the bar flies are the world’s biggest mental problem?

Posted by: Jonathan W | May 12 2023 20:45 utc | 115

Further dangerous provocation and escalation by the UK Deep State in its role as mindless attack dog for the US. Not content with depleted uranium ammunition for challenger tanks the UK is dictating that the logic of the proxy war is to attack Russia at every level and opportunity surpassing for example the recent wave of swarm attacks on Russian territory and Crimea. The calculation now is to increase the punch and lethality of these attacks with the supply of long range 300kms cruise missiles to the hate filled fanatics in Kiev who are outspoken in their rabid lust to kill Russians anywhere and everywhere.
In response to this UK attack and escalation a cryptic note from Vladislav Ugolny in his telegram channel is worthy of attention. He states “It is more profitable for Russians to be a nation of scouts and saboteurs.
We need intelligence, counter-intelligence, hackers, criminal gangs with black cash, drug trafficking, arms trafficking, Nazi and leftist groups under our control, private military companies, and so on.ich we are losing a lot of momentum and Russian lives”.
Interestingly the UK Deep state is maniacal in its belief that Russia is too intimidated to retaliate.

Posted by: Rick | May 12 2023 20:46 utc | 117

navalny, novichok, nordstream…yeah, maybe it’s just me, but is there some desperation in the West? a bit, maybe? a dram of a gram?
is it smart to buy gas from the gas station on the other side of town, or the one next door?
oh wait, but let’s not forget the success of the US space program! another blew up…uh…Mission Accomplished!
it’s easy to define down “success” with reading scores like those of the US.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | May 12 2023 20:51 utc | 119

Posted by: Zet | May 12 2023 20:48 utc | 119
The problem with a white list is that you only ever read opinions from the same, select set of posters and can quickly deteriorate in to unchallenging groupthink.
Better to suffer the trolls and opinions you don’t like and sharpen your own discernment.
IMHO.

Posted by: ChatNPC | May 12 2023 20:54 utc | 121

Posted by: ChatNPC | May 12 2023 20:54 utc | 122
Exactly so. Why bother looking for some magical script when it would be in best interests to learn how to exact some discipline in your reading. Not only here, but anytime you’re online. Looking for a tech solution to a non existent problem.

Posted by: Digital Spartacus | May 12 2023 21:01 utc | 123

Prigozhin has published a new video (a reupload of the video which does not require the Telegram app for viewing is available, for example, here). Here’s my translation:

Let’s talk about what’s going on.
PMC Wagner has been surrounding Bakhmut for a long them, then began to enter Bakhmut. The whole operation to enter Bakhmut continued since October 8, for seven months. During that period, we have taken the Berkhovka Reservoir, Berkhovka and have been advancing along the Bakhmut–Slavyansk road in the direction of Slavyansk.
Now a reverse process is occuring. After we have transferred the flanks, what happened was not a “tactical retreat”—so comrade Konashenkov, to put it mildly, hasn’t been honest—it was simply a flight of MoD units from the flanks. And so [the Ukraine] reaching the Berkhovka Reservoir, if someone looks at the map—I won’t show my own, because there’s a lot of extra information here—but if you look at what is going on in Berkhovka, it means that the enemy will approach Bakhmut and will be located 500 m from Bakhmut, taking all tactical heights. With the loss of the Berkhovka Reservoir, so to speak, with [the Ukraine] reaching [it], with the loss of these territories that were left—and it’s 5 km² just today—the enemy has completely opened the Chasov Yar–Bakhmut road, which we were blocking, which was known as “the surrounding of Bakhmut”, and the enemy will be able to use that road, that’s the first thing, and the second thing is that it has taken the tactical heights, from which the entire Bakhmut is [visible] at a glance. The next step, when they enter Berkhovka, that will mean the gradual surrounding of Bakhmut—exactly what I have been talking about for a long time.
So the Defense Minister and the Head of the General Staff, through their actions, have managed to first reduce the headcount of PMC Wagner, so that we couldn’t hold the flanks; then they decided that their “brave” servicemen will hold the flanks, but they fled; we are still not supplied with ammo, we are given, at maximum, 10% of what we need, and so we can’t cover the servicemen with fire; they won’t give us arms and armor, hoping that PMC Wagner finally collapses. We continue to storm “Gnezdo” [“the Nest”] in Bakhmut, this night we have taken another building, this morning we have taken several further entrances, we have to take about 20 buildings and Bakhmut will be completely taken—about 20 high-rise buildings, not counting bits and pieces like the individual houses. However! The taking of Bakhmut won’t give Russian Federation anything, because the flanks are crumbling, the front is crumbling. And MoD’s attempt to somehow soften the situation in the information space is leading—and will lead—to a global tragedy for Russia. That’s why the lying must stop immediately! If you have fled, you should build new lines of defense, but what you have prepared for this defense is not what can hold this defense, it’s simply nothing. And so what has been happening lately and what I have been warning about for a long time, it beginning to transpire, in a great tragedy for our country.
(video cut)
And another thing in particular. When we have received the combat order on May 7, as I have already said, there were four points in that combat order. The first point: if PMC Wagner leaves Bakhmut without the sanction of the Head of the General Staff, it will be considered a state treason. The second one: we will be given as much ammo as we request. The third one: we will be given General of the Army Surovikin as a liaison. And the fourth one: the MoD takes all the flanks.
So, regarding the four points. They gave us Surovikin. The flanks were “taken” in such a way that it would have been better if they didn’t attempt to do that. They haven’t given us the ammo. And the last point remains, the one which I mentioned the first, about the “state treason”. Does this rule only extend to PMC Wagner, or [also] to the military command, whose actions led to those flanks being abandoned? Who will be held accountable for state treason? A question, please. For the court, we have a copy of the combat order.
Thank you.

Posted by: S | May 12 2023 21:11 utc | 125

“they won’t give us arms and armor, hoping that PMC Wagner finally collapses.”
?

Posted by: Jonathan W | May 12 2023 21:24 utc | 127

NATO bunker near Lvov hit by a Kinzhal missile, with 300 high ranking NATO and Ukrainian officials killed, although this bunker was hidden 100 meters under ground. MoA readers learnt about this story on April 16th, citing a piece by Gilbert Doctorow as the source. Doctorow featured the story in English after it had, on the same day, appeared in Russian in the online version of Komsomolskaya Pravda.
That story was discussed up and down between MoA-barflies. It has just so many exciting aspects to it, namely:
(1) the event must have killed large numbers of Ukrainian and NATO senior staff.
(2) if so, a list of names – or a cover-up by the West – is to be expected soon.
(3) that list will shine a light on the extent of NATO engagement on Ukrainian ground.
(4) why were there no official reports of the incident between March 9th when it happened, and April 15th, when Komsomolska Pravda covered it?
(5) can a Kinzhal hypersonic missile penetrate 100 meters of soil?
(6) why did RF cover the incident at no time, neither on March 9th, nor following its coverage in Komsomolska Pravda on April 15th?
I will not deny that I was as excited as everybody on MoA, where aspects (1) to (5) were widely discussed. But I repeatedly posted that (6) was a problem for me, making it hard to believe the story was true. If true, it must have been, on March 9th, a real piece of primetime news, putting everything else in the shade. If the news was, for some diplomatic reason, withheld until April 15th, it would still be breaking news. How then could RT ignore it completely?
Now, finally, thanks to a commentator named Pudding (@63) I got my answer. OK, barflies, sorry to let you know, but the story never happened. In particular, forget about the Kinzahl(s) capacity to penetrate 100 meters of soil. You have succumbed to what we Germans call a “Zeitungs-Ente”, a piece of fake news, which originated on March 1st on somebody’s website and was copied forth and forth, until on April 15th Gilbert Doktorow wrote his masterpiece. Find all about it on Pudding’s link:
https://www.unz.com/runz/did-a-russian-missile-strike-kill-200-nato-officers-in-a-ukrainian-bunker/.
What this illustrates is the ease of getting mislead by one’s own echo-chamber. MoA is a giant echo chamber, and despite of being populated by such a crowd of experienced, critical, educated and knowledgeable people, it falls victim to a simple piece of invented news, created by somebody on his website. Deplorable, isn’t it?

Posted by: grunzt | May 12 2023 21:26 utc | 129

Have barflies seen this:
https://www.mintpressnews.com/independent-ukraine-kill-list-actually-run-by-kiev-backed-by-washington/284639/

Posted by: Cherrycoke | May 12 2023 21:32 utc | 131

I am increasingly thinking continuing to comment is a waste of time. Someone mentioned writing a browser plugin to filter out the comments from certain wastoids. A white list of “known good” commenters would be worth writing.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 12 2023 20:16 utc | 109
——————————————————————
Who said that there is no life after death, and now I know that Ghost really do exist: Behold, Zanon lives. I guess with the Kiev Counter Offensive under way you must have smelled blood, Russian blood.

Posted by: Ed | May 12 2023 21:35 utc | 133

The narrator is the narrative. Facts? Evidences?
The counter is a fact?
Do you know something?
Meanwhile, thousands of AFU are been waiting for the Lord. Papa, take care for my soul.
Get all of them a room to forgive their insanity.
I count 10000 AFUs in the May. Good to see you, my enemy.

Posted by: Lalita | May 12 2023 21:39 utc | 135

Have barflies seen this:
https://www.mintpressnews.com/independent-ukraine-kill-list-actually-run-by-kiev-backed-by-washington/284639/
Posted by: Cherrycoke | May 12 2023 21:32 utc | 132
——————————————————-
I guess Robert Kennedy Jr. will now have to be added to the US/ Ukraine Kill list.
Comments by RFK JR. at Real Clear Politics.
“The answer to your question about how we got into this war goes back a long way. But I would say the real story starts in 2014, when the U.S. government and the neocons in the White House and elsewhere participated and supported the violent overthrow, a coup-d-etat, against the democratically elected government of the Ukraine and put in a very anti-Russian government. This prompted the Russians, who then believed that the U.S. Navy was now going to be invited into the Black Sea to have a port at Crimea, it prompted the Russians to preemptively invade Crimea.”
“At the same time, the government that came into the Ukraine began enacting a series of laws that turned the Russian populations of the Donbas region into second class citizens. They illegalized essentially their culture, their language, and they began ultimately killing them. They killed 14,000 of them and it prompted a civil war in the country…”
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2023/05/07/rfk_jr_on_ukraine_war_were_being_told_russia_is_losing_but_they_cannot_afford_to_lose.html

Posted by: Ed | May 12 2023 22:00 utc | 137

Yet again, Strategic Culture’s editorial tells the true story, “Nazi Germany’s Defeat… But a Pause for Fascism as NATO’s Proxy War in Ukraine Demonstrates”, although the title and contents are old news to cognizant barflies:

Ukrainian fascists who had actively participated in the Nazi Final Solution killing millions of Slavic people were recruited by the Western powers to fight a proxy war behind Soviet lines. Mass murderers like Stepan Bandera and Mykola Lebed were protected by the American and British intelligence agencies to continue their nefarious work. Former Nazi spy chief Major General Reinhard Gehlen was assigned to coordinate Ukrainian and Baltic Nazi guerrillas to wage a covert war against the Soviet Union. These are but a few names in a whole clandestine army of agents and paramilitaries deployed by the West across Europe in the decades following World War Two. Many of them were trained in the United States for their commando, terrorist missions to sabotage Soviet societies.
American intelligence chiefs in the wartime Office of Strategic Services (OSS), such as Allen Dulles and James Jesus Angleton, knowingly recruited Nazis in Europe to pursue the anticipated next war against the Soviet Union. Ratlines were created to ensure that Nazi war criminals would evade prosecution and the Western intelligence services not only redeployed thousands of Nazi personnel, they secured lucrative gold and other loot that the Third Reich had amassed during its reign of terror. This dark money would fund covert operations carried out by the U.S. around the world for decades to come, as David Talbot documented in his book, The Devil’s Chessboard. See also Christopher Simpson’s seminal study, The Splendid Blond Beast….
Nearly eight decades on, across Europe this week was the occasion of surreal events. Russia held its annual Victory Day parade against Nazi Germany with the traditional pomp and ceremony, while in Western states there were no major official commemorations. The European elite like European Commission President – and Nazi scion – Ursula von der Leyen prefer to celebrate the newly fashioned “Europe Day” and ignore Victory Day. Indeed, they are going further and criminalizing those who celebrate Victory Day.
How weird is that? Well, only perhaps weird given the Western mainstream falsifying accounts and omissions about World War Two. But not weird for those who understand the deeper imperial intrigues of that war and its sinister aftermath….
Russian President Vladimir Putin in his address at the Red Square parade correctly noted that an undeclared war is being waged once again against Russia. It is truly astounding that this is happening within living memory of the horrors of WWII. To any rational, moral person this may seem shockingly depraved. But if the nature of the imperialist, fascist beast is properly understood then one can readily appreciate that the beast must be fed with blood and flesh. It is uncontrollable, until it is slain….
The Americans and British recruited the Third Reich remnants at the end of World War Two because within the ranks of the Western ruling establishment were numerous fascists or “exceptionalists” who believe in a divine right of American superiority and world dominance. This is a mindset that has become endemic in Washington. The American OSS which went on to become the CIA in 1947 under the orders of President Harry Truman (the atomic bomber of Hiroshima and Nagasaki) was the embodiment of American fascism along with the Pentagon’s military-industrial complex (MIC). The CIA, the MIC, Wall Street banks and the corporate elite of American capitalism represent the deep state or corporatist state that is fascism. The electoral process is but a fig leaf of “democracy”. The same can be said for most Western states and their phoney elections. The real power resides in an unelected oligarchy. In short, the Western states are inherently fascist with a veneer of democracy, like lipstick on a pig….
The fascist Western powers led primarily by the U.S. ruling elite cannot be at peace with the rest of the world because their system of capitalist imperialism is predicated on total hegemony and dominance. That fundamental condition of inequality in human relations must be underpinned by militarism, aggression, state terrorism and war. [My Emphasis]

And I’ll add that every troll posting here is in the service of the Global Fascists and as such are as vile as those employing them. Too many of their kin escaped the gallows thanks to the Outlaw US Empire. One hopes justice will not be cheated this time around. Simpson’s “study” is available to read online here. I agree that “it must be slain,” but also understand that’s a very complicated task as what must be destroyed is a philosophy, a way of thinking about the world, and that’s an almost impossible task taking on the character of a religious crusade.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 12 2023 22:03 utc | 139

Ukraine almost by definition won’t run out of men to draft, but I think that the proportion of trained troops with good morale among the conscripts is dropping, and the conscripts themself are almost by definition going to have on average a lower morale than those who were first drafted.
Those who were most “gung ho” among the populace would have already enlisted, and the conditions producing that attitude have changed for the worse.
War propaganda is “A Bright Shining Lie”, and it’s much harder to push the lie in Ukraine these days. People know of the millions who fled rather than serve, and the hundreds of thousands who’ve been killed or severely wounded. Running from the “press gangs” who will grab you on the street is now a common reflex.
P.S. When “Fearless Leader” Zelenskyy looks like shite, it’s easy for those who are grabbed off the streets to guess how the war is going. Unless you train them well, instill good morale, and put them with lots of veterans with good spirits, all you’re doing is recapitulating the scenario of the end of All Quiet on the Western Front, and Paths of Glory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Bright_Shining_Lie

Posted by: Babel-17 | May 12 2023 22:13 utc | 141

Today, mercury fulminate has been replaced in primers by more efficient chemical substances. These are non-corrosive, less toxic, and more stable over time; they include lead azide, lead styphnate, and tetrazene derivatives. In addition, none of these compounds require mercury for manufacture, supplies of which can be unreliable in wartime.

Posted by: Michael Weddington | May 12 2023 22:15 utc | 143

State Duma deputy from Crimea Mikhail Sheremet called for a strike on western Ukraine if Kiev uses British Storm Shadow cruise missiles .
“In the event that Ukraine uses these missiles, I believe that massive missile strikes, possibly even with the use of tactical weapons, should be carried out along the western border of Ukraine in order to cut off the arms supply channels,” Sheremet said.

Do it. Should have been done a year ago.
But Putin doesn’t have the balls.

Posted by: shadowbanned | May 12 2023 22:27 utc | 145

Ed | May 12 2023 22:00 utc | 139–
Well, RFKjr still doesn’t have the sequence of events correct. Russia was already legally present in Crimea and didn’t “invade.” Crimeans held a referendum and voted to become one with Russia–AGAIN.
I did some looking into the USSR’s 1977 Constitution to see if the SSR status granted in 1936 remained or was eliminated. (One of the major reasons why SSR status was employed was to increase the number of Soviet friendly states within the nascent UN in 1945 with Ukraine and Belarus being accepted as member “nations.” By 1977, there was no longer a need for such “help.”) If SSR status was no longer valid, then no “republic” had the right to secede from the USSR/Soviet Union. And of course, there’s the constitutionality of Khruschev’s “gift” of Crimea to Ukraine where the majority argument is he lacked any legal authority to make that “gift.”
IMO, it was clear when the USSR broke in 1991 that Ukraine would be a problem as proved by the attempts to organize a successor polity, the CIS. Most focus from 1991-2000 is on happenings within Russia while Ukraine happenings are overlooked, which IMO is a mistake as Outlaw US Empire intentions were always the opposite of what was being said publicly. And as the SCF editorial I linked to implies, Russia’s been aware that the Outlaw US Empire’s word is invalid and has been that way since 1945.
IMO, it’s hard to fault RFKjr for not knowing the facts about the roots of today’s crises as much effort’s gone into obfuscating them. However, his life experience has made him privy to many things we don’t know as the “Tapes” interview informed those who read it. I’m two years his junior and continue to learn new things daily that sometimes makes me reformulate my evaluation of something in some manner. And I’m sure that happens to most of us who seek objectivity. And IMO, that’s the key question: Would RFKjr be an objective manager of the Executive or just another marionette like we’ve had for far too long?

Posted by: karlof1 | May 12 2023 22:39 utc | 147

Posted by: Zet | May 12 2023 21:35 utc | 135
Hey Zet, just piping up to say thanks for the Barfly Tools script and in particular the clear instructions on how to install the Tampermonkey plugin and then enable the Tools.
Invaluable on my desktop, I am so used to skipping the blacklisted dross posters.
Fair comment about whitelisting being a way to set up an echo chamber, but along with the MoA google search could be useful to find specific content or posters.
I wonder if I still have my wishlist of blogging features from circa Billmon going out of blogging 20 years ago. Being able to thread posts would be nice however that would need metadata about who is responding to whom.
Anyway just wanted to say nice work and thank you.

Posted by: jonku | May 12 2023 22:48 utc | 149

Dima says that Ukarinians managed to destroy a building in Lugansk with new cruise missile obtained from UK. What to say. Terrible.
Posted by: srbin | May 12 2023 19:36 utc | 88
################
If I had a nickel for every time that Dima was wrong, I could buy a triple scoop ice cream cone.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2023 22:52 utc | 151

𝗞𝗜𝗘𝗩 𝗧𝗥𝗜𝗘𝗦 𝗧𝗢 𝗗𝗜𝗦𝗚𝗨𝗜𝗦𝗘 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗙𝗔𝗜𝗟𝗨𝗥𝗘 𝗢𝗙 𝗜𝗧𝗦 𝗖𝗢𝗨𝗡𝗧𝗘𝗥𝗢𝗙𝗙𝗘𝗡𝗦𝗜𝗩𝗘 𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗡
In a recent interview to a Western media outlet, the head of the Kiev regime stated that his country needs more time before starting the counteroffensive against Russian troops. According to Vladimir Zelensky, the Ukrainian forces would be “ready” to start the move, but before that they need to receive more equipment and wait for the ideal conditions for action to emerge – which is obviously a contradictory, ambiguous and unsubstantiated narrative.
Zelensky’s words were spoken during a conference with the Eurovision News Network and were then reported by the BBC. The Ukrainian president claims that he could give orders to launch the counteroffensive now, but that would mean too many casualties for Kiev, which is why it seems more prudent to wait for more favorable conditions to arise in the future. At the time, Zelensky also emphasized the importance of receiving more armored vehicles from the West, which would operationally facilitate the counteroffensive.
Another interesting point of the interview was Zelensky’s response when asked if he has been under pressure from his western partners to resume negotiations in case the counterattack plans fail. The president suggested that his army would continue fighting regardless of the outcome of the counter-offensive and said that no Western country could pressure Ukraine to surrender territories to Russian forces. Zelensky also said that Moscow intends to “freeze” the conflict, as it would be territorially favored, which supposedly will be prevented by the counteroffensive.
“We’d lose a lot of people [if we started the counteroffensive now] (…) I think that’s unacceptable. So, we need to wait. We still need a bit more time (…) [Western powers] can’t pressure Ukraine into surrendering territories”, he said.
The most curious thing about Zelensky’s narrative is how extremely contradictory it is. At one moment the president says that his country is “ready” to start the maneuver and at another he says it needs to wait. Either Kiev is ready to start an effective counterattack, or in fact it is not and needs to wait for better conditions in the future. There is no possible synthesis between both possibilities. This confused and irrational rhetoric sounds like a desperate attempt to have control over the military situation of the conflict, when in fact this control does not exist.
Also, by reaffirming that Kiev will continue to fight to recover the territories liberated by Russia, Zelensky makes it clear to the Western media that, in practice, the outcome of the counteroffensive does not matter. Even if the plans fail, Ukrainian forces will continue to be forced to fight and keep looking for virtually unattainable results. And, as Zelensky himself stated, no western power is opposed to that – which was already well known, since NATO countries are the most interested in keeping Kiev active in the conflict.
In the same sense, Zelensky lies when he says that Russia wants to freeze the conflict. Moscow’s position is clear on achieving an effective and lasting resolution to the crisis. However, Russia does not see the fight against Ukrainian forces as a war, but as a special military operation inserted in a broader context – the war with NATO, which is the organization that uses Kiev as a proxy. Russia avoids escalations and big maneuvers because it wants to avoid as much as possible the death of Ukrainian civilians, seen as part of the same people by most Russian citizens. So, Russia does not want to freeze – it really wants to win and end the problem, but it wants to do it in the least harmful way possible for Ukraine itself.
However, what is most interesting about Zelensky’s speech is to see how Ukrainian rhetoric has changed in a few days. In the most recent wave of terrorist attacks launched by the regime, several officials claimed that the moves were part of the counteroffensive, which had already begun. Zelensky even promised that he would launch more attacks on Crimea, until he “recovered” it, virtually assuming the terrorist nature of such a counteroffensive. Now, however, the rhetoric has changed and apparently the move has not yet started, with the Ukrainians waiting for a more opportune moment to avoid casualties.
In fact, what seems to be happening is the formulation of a narrative by Zelensky and the western media to disguise the failure. Many analysts, citing sources on the battlefield, believe that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has already begun. The intensity of Kiev’s attacks – both on the trenches and in terrorist operations – has already escalated. The special troops that had reportedly been sent to Poland for training during the winter have already returned to the country and there have been practical results of their work. For example, the head of Russian PMC Wagner Group recently showed on his social networks several Russian soldiers killed after Ukrainian massive attacks in Bakhmut.
The problem is that, contrary to what was promised by the regime’s propaganda, this counteroffensive has been weak, inefficient and incapable of guaranteeing territorial gains. Kiev managed to increase combat capability and generate more casualties on the Russians, but this had no military relevance. The regime’s forces are still unable to capture and occupy territories, which is why the media has run out of arguments to maintain its previous narrative and is now changing it, stating that the move has not yet started.
In a realistic analysis, it seems evident that Kiev is unable of reversing the military scenario of the conflict with its counterattack. The promise of occupation of Donbass and Crimea is absolutely inconsistent with the reality of Ukrainian troops, which have been weakened, demoralized, and poorly equipped since 2022. So, indeed, the counteroffensive is happening, but it is not what the propagandists promised.
South Front

Posted by: HERMIUS | May 12 2023 22:58 utc | 153

what country in the world has a president who openly brags about how women like to be sexually assaulted by superstars like himself? and on the witness stand!
Posted by: rjb1.5 | May 12 2023 20:22 utc | 110
#################
Comments like this make me very concerned about plummeting testosterone, and overall fertility, levels in the West.
Truth be told, I don’t really care. The West is demographically a dead man walking. The future belongs to the people who do not castrate their sons or encourage their daughters to be public property.
If one understands hypergamy, then Trump’s statement about how women like to be treated by high value men is obvious and historically accurate. If a biological male doesn’t understand hypergamy in 2023, then what exactly are they doing on the internet besides watching anime and foot-fetish videos?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2023 23:02 utc | 155

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky at headquarters agreed on the use of Western military assistance near Bakhmut, primarily Leopard tanks. Syrsky received full support in the implementation of his plan for the counteroffensive and is preparing units for the second stage, the capture of Soledar.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17727

Posted by: Down South | May 12 2023 23:17 utc | 157

Micron #106: You have to realize that this is a sort of mix of basically Qanon commenters, who “trust the plan” and some hardcore stalinist guys with a more realistic but ultimately genocidal perceptions. Hence all the fantasies about nuking London from the realists, while the true believers think that everything is just fine, and the jew-infested west will soo fall together in the face of those oh so heterosexual slavic supermen.
Personally, I think the endgame will be that Russia will somehow have to retreat to the 2021 lines, annex Luhansk and Donetsk and Crimea, and then try to explain it to their own crowd. There will be no big arrow ukrainian offensive, just an endless long range artillery war wich given NATOs capability the ukrainians slowly but steadily will win. The strangest fantasy I read here is that Russia is enjoyin a 1:7 kill ratio even in offensive actions, wich is against all military theory. But hey, these people also believed they could storm the Capitol and keep Trump in power. It is, after all, a holy war against homosexuality wich Jesus will bless with victory, eh?

Posted by: Fnord73 | May 12 2023 23:35 utc | 159

‘But hey, these people also believed they could storm the Capitol and keep Trump in power’
Stop projecting your delusions onto everyone please. What you think I have to do with your insipid Maerican politics doesn’t interest me, but your bizarre insistence that Ukraine is winning the war marks you as a lunatic.
Ukraine is suffering catastrophic losses in blood, egged on by and financially dependent on Maerica and her vassals, all while sycophants like you spread hippy dippy bullshit about Ukrainian victories.
UK MoD actually were boasting about not losing any positions in Bahkmut yesterday, as though this is a victory. It must have been many days since that happened. I wonder how many Ukrainian pressganged soldiers died for that achievement?
Enjoy the unraveling ahead as Maerica, so long perched the cowardly tyrant, gets it’s financial balls gelded. You can tell the kiddies how you were a camp follower in the ministry of truth back in 2023..

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 12 2023 23:46 utc | 161

The Challenger 2 tanks will probably cut a swathe through any Russian tanks they do encounter. The Russians will need to dump a lot of very accurate 1000lb bombs on them to stop the behemoths.

Posted by: Wokechoke | May 13 2023 0:01 utc | 163

I’m two years his junior and continue to learn new things daily that sometimes makes me reformulate my evaluation of something in some manner. And I’m sure that happens to most of us who seek objectivity. And IMO, that’s the key question: Would RFKjr be an objective manager of the Executive or just another marionette like we’ve had for far too long?
Posted by: karlof1 | May 12 2023 22:39 utc | 149
———————————————————–
Thank you, Mr. karlof1 for your response. I consider you one of the most informed, honest, and levelheaded commentators at MoA; and your response is quite an honor.
I was 10 years old and living in a small suburb of Dallas, Texas with foster parents when JFK was assassinated. For people our age, the JFK event was very personal: If it wasn’t you weren’t even a human being.
Yes, there are some comments by Robert Kennedy Jr. that are what they are because he is a politician running for President. I will give a sample below.
1). ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.: I supported the humanitarian aid to the Ukraine, which is what we were told initially was the mission, although I was suspicious of it. My son, as I’ve mentioned, actually went over. He left law school, did not tell us he was going, and went over and joined the [Ukrainian] Foreign Legion and fought in the Kharkiv offensive with a special forces group. He served as a machine gunner, he was in engagements with the Russians. But he feels the same way as I do, this is no longer a humanitarian mission, and all the decisions the United States has made since the start have been about prolonging the war, about maximizing the violence of the war, and being absolutely intransigent against the many opportunities to actually settle the war.
2). “…the Russian response [the attacks on the Donbass region] was illegal, I have no sympathy toward Vladimir Putin, Vladimir Putin is a gangster and a thug, but his response to the Donbas was not irrational.
But I want to also point out that RFK Jr, also said this: I’ve been friends with Joe Biden for many, many years. Joe Biden is a go-to-war guy. He was one of the strongest supporters of the Iraq War, he has been supportive of every war that has come along, and I think that is one of the reasons that that portion of the Democratic Party, the very powerful king-pickers, was very happy with him getting into office. He never says no to a war.
If people are looking for a “perfect” bourgeois politician, they won’t find it in the USA. But it yakes a lot of guts for Robert Kennedy Jr. with all of his history, to stand up to the Biden machine, the DNC, the CIA and all the previous Presidental cowards who refused to release to documents about JFK and RFK. Folkes it has been 60 fucking years.

Posted by: Ed | May 13 2023 0:07 utc | 165

Posted this on the ‘Spectator’ thread – might as well pop it in here as well – looks well researched and very useful on the big picture of ‘who’ controls ‘narratives’
Controlling the narrative … h/t nakedcapitalism today
V useful graphic – and useful read
Report on the Censorship-Industrial Complex: The Top 50 Organizations to Know
The citizen’s starter kit to understanding the new global information cartel
SUSAN SCHMIDT, ANDREW LOWENTHAL, TOM WYATT, TECHNO FOG, AND 4 OTHERS
10 MAY 2023
https://www.racket.news/p/report-on-the-censorship-industrial-74b
Posted by: Don Firineach | May 12 2023 22:29 utc | 79

Posted by: Don Firineach | May 13 2023 0:10 utc | 167

𝗭𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗸𝘆 ‘𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝘂𝗽 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗛𝗶𝘁𝗹𝗲𝗿’ – 𝗲𝘅-𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁
Dmitry Medvedev has condemned the Ukrainian leader after his claims that “those in the Kremlin will come to a sad end”
His remarks came in response to an interview published by the BBC on Friday, in which Zelensky stated: “Believe me, those in the Kremlin… it will end badly for them.”
The Ukrainian president expressed his desire for the rapid demise of the current Russian leadership, claiming that they “will certainly not die a natural death.”
The interview with Zelensky comes less than two weeks after a drone attack on the Kremlin, which Moscow described as an assassination attempt against President Vladimir Putin and an act of terrorism. The Russian leader was not at the Kremlin at the time of the incident.
Russia accused Kiev of orchestrating the attack and said it reserves the right to respond as it sees fit. Ukraine denied any involvement in the incident, although the attack prompted Medvedev to call for the “physical removal” of Zelensky.
Kiev’s intelligence chief, Kirill Budanov, later vowed to “keep killing Russians anywhere” until Ukraine’s “complete victory.” The Kremlin branded the statement “truly heinous,” and said it was confirmation that Kiev was involved in orchestrating terrorist attacks.
RT

Posted by: HERMIUS | May 13 2023 0:30 utc | 169

There’s been incidents from drone footage of Russian soldiers committing suicide in combat once wounded. Truly horrific viewing, one wonders what is motivating this behaviour, the ukies must be horribly mistreating prisoners to make these men do this.
Video is from a westoid forum but seems to be legit footage. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/13friby/ukraines_56th_motorized_brigade_assaulting/

Posted by: Lachlan | May 13 2023 0:36 utc | 171

The Russkies ought to be dumping CBU, Toss Thermobaric and 1000lbers on top of any Ukies they detect around Bahkmut. The strange bromance of words between the big mouthed jewboy in Donbass and the western press is a remarkable feature of the war. It’s like (((they))) are manouvering (((Prigohzin))) into the Presidency in Russia.

Posted by: Wokechoke | May 13 2023 1:04 utc | 173

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2023 23:02 utc | 157
no doubt you measure the testosterone levels of your heroes by how many women they grope. by that standard, what a god among mere bugs Trump must be to you.
all because your tadpoles don’t swim.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | May 13 2023 1:13 utc | 175

I don’t know what “winning” would mean. I’m less certain of the definition of Russia “winning” than ever. But I think that if Russia can’t convincingly turn the tide in their favor within two months, they may as well write this off as a lost cause. Russia needs to crush Ukraine. They can’t sit on this forever, and sooner or later the west will provide sufficient arms (and troops) for Ukraine to prevail.
Americans? I read the Washington Post. Americans celebrate–literally rejoice–the killing of Russian soldiers. And they want to continue the fight. No negotiations. By contrast people here mainly think the whole war is a tragedy, a necessary tragedy at that. They “pray for the souls of the dead.” So who is the more moral, the more ethical, the more decent.

Posted by: Cesar Jeopardy | May 13 2023 1:15 utc | 177

Posted by: Cesar Jeopardy | May 13 2023 1:15 utc | 180
Winning for Russia is keeping Crimea and freeing the two Donbas Republics.
Anything more than that is icing on the cake.

Posted by: Eclavdra | May 13 2023 1:20 utc | 179

MiniMo | May 12 2023 22:14 utc | 144
At the time of the Ukraine Kharkov and Kherson offensives, reports were coming in all around the frontline of foreign voices filling the Ukraine radio traffic. In the Kharkov offensive, LPR fighters reported that they were fighting English speakers. In the center it was mostly polish speakers.
I don’t recall a language being given for the Kherson region other than the radio traffic was all foreign language, no Russian language or Ukrainian dialect.
Shoigu reported at that time Russia was now fighting Nato.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 13 2023 1:27 utc | 181

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-51223-panic-ukraine-launches?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Posted by: morongobill | May 13 2023 1:37 utc | 183

Ed | May 13 2023 0:07 utc | 168–
Thanks for your reply. Yes, 22 Nov 1963 was a very personal day indeed. When I got to Jr High, the library had a copy of the Warren Commission Report, which I read. I was agog about the magic bullet since I was already an excellent shot and knew about guns and basic ballistics. The acceptance of that told me all I needed to know. And that was in 1967. I avidly followed the entire 1968 election and watched live as RFKsr got shot. Then came Chicago. I got good news because I lived next to Sacramento in Davis and read the SF, Sac, and Oakland papers and the much better network news. Oh, and I shouldn’t forget the riots and MLK’s assassination. Yes, it was a very personal, impressionable time to be coming of age in America. And of course, more was to come, and it has yet to stop. One way of seeing the time period is as one long war that must come to an end. And that might be what scares the Donors the most: That the Forever War might finally cease.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 13 2023 1:42 utc | 185

However; no one is shitting their panties about the Mercury in the primers of rifle, machine gun or light cannon cartridges.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 12 2023 21:47 utc | 137
That might be because nobody has used Mercury Fulminate as an ammo primer since the 1950’s.

Posted by: Eclavdra | May 13 2023 1:49 utc | 187

no doubt you measure the testosterone levels of your heroes by how many women they grope. by that standard, what a god among mere bugs Trump must be to you.
all because your tadpoles don’t swim.
Posted by: rjb1.5 | May 13 2023 1:13 utc | 178
#################
I didn’t design the game, but I know how it is played. Women are hypergamous, and always have been. It’s a fundamental truth of the relationship between the sexes. Every culture, every race, every time period. Without exception.
It’s not about bugs or Gods. It’s about men accepting the reality of being a man in a competitive world, whose “tadpoles” are successful is also a competitive endeavor.
It is always saddening to me when someone buys political propaganda as fact. Why would a billionaire have to grope C-tier women when he’s been with movie stars and models his entire life? Men at his level don’t need to molest women. High value women throw themselves at him because he is high status, is an elite provider, and is hyper confident and accomplished.
Now Bill Clinton, I can see. He wasn’t a billionaire, he wasn’t successful across domains, he wasn’t a celebrity before politics. And his political ideology is incredibly deviant.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 13 2023 2:33 utc | 189

@180
Quite a few Americans view Russians, including its civilians, as orcs. And yes, when Russians die they celebrate 🙁

Posted by: Woke American | May 13 2023 2:38 utc | 191

Clyde #2:38 utc | 193
Ignore them. It helps and they will always turn up in some guise.
NEVER FEED THEM.
Not to worry – be happy :))

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 13 2023 3:20 utc | 193

Have just read through much of the simplicius piece linked earlier.
simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-51223-panic-ukraine-launches?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
I had read some time ago that Russian VDV forces had move into the Bakhmut area to hold the flanks so Wagner could concentrate its forces in the urban fighting. If VDV have moved out or simplicius missed that I don’t know. But what is appearing as a pattern or Russia it that they are using mostly volunteers and Donbass militias for offensive operations while holding regular units in defensive positions or as reserves. It could be the VDV are still there in the background in case Ukraine/nato forces break through the volunteers.
Last time the west able to put together a force of 80,000 consisting of rebadged western troops and mercs, Nato trained Ukrainians plus untrained or poorly trained Ukraine cannon fodder. This time, from what simplicius wrote they are getting hit hard in the back areas.
If the new army is whittled down enough Ukraine might just settle for the optics of Bakhmut. Bakhmut is it seems important to Zelensky to retain western backing.
Russia has put up good defences all along the southern line of contact, plus in Luhansk north of the Donets river to the Russian border. I have not read of similar defence lines on the Donetsk front.
Wherever the main push occurs, it will likely put a dent in Russian lines and these Ukraine threads will be a welter of tears, but I assume Russia is holding a large reserve of the 300,000 mobilized and will be able to send them wherever needed.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 13 2023 3:31 utc | 195

That link in my last post messed up https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-51223-panic-ukraine-launches?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 13 2023 3:35 utc | 197

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 12 2023 20:00 utc | 102

I would like to know how the Ukrainians can mount ANY offensive without air cover, it makes no sense…
That’s a good question, better question is why do you think they won’t have air cover, because the western govts say they are reluctant to send them?

We know they don’t have air cover because they’ve not had air cover to this very day. If they had it they’d use it – they’re desperate enough to justify it.
We know they won’t have air cover because anything significant that rises into the air over Ukraine will be detected and destroyed within minutes.
Have a chat with Gary Powers if you believe otherwise …
The way things have been going is generally how things keep going, with glacial changes as time goes by.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 13 2023 3:56 utc | 199