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May 12, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-113
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Looks like the offensive has started
I pray for the souls of men about to die
Posted by: Wazdaka | May 12 2023 15:41 utc | 1
and I curse the souls of Biden and the neo-cons who are responsible for this disaster.
Posted by: El Oso de Los Llanos | May 12 2023 15:45 utc | 2
It seems like a stale mate has developed in the war. Russia seems to have little desire to launch a major offensive. While Ukraine currently is lacking the equipment to likewise launch a major offensive. The question is how long will each side stay committed to their war objectives?? Is Russia really a bear with no claws?? Is the West coalition really stronger than thought six months ago?
Posted by: Chris Hafferty | May 12 2023 15:49 utc | 4
@Wazdaka, #1, I agree, with the exception of Zelenskyy’s soul, hopefully he’ll be dead soon, and in hell.
Posted by: Firefly | May 12 2023 15:53 utc | 5
UKRAINE’S GREAT OFFENSIVE:
It looks like the entire front line or “zero line” in Ukraine has become activated recently. Perhaps this falls in line with the fields and dirt roads drying out and hardening. Certainly, weather does have a big say on the war time table.
Perhaps Ukraine’s offensive is going to be an all out assault along the zero line. If one area breaks along this line, this could indicate Russian weakness. Then the Ukrainian command may focus on pouring more troops into that area taking more territory.
This approach is pretty much what the AFU has been doing all along. The problem with this approach is that the Russians can easily set a trap for Ukraine pouring in a lot of troops into a small area. Such makes them more vulnerable to air attacks. That could be glide bombs, missles, artillery, drones, or mortars in which the Russians have superiority.
Like any “great offensive” most likely Ukraine will definitely see gains in some areas. Yet, I don’t think their gains will be anything like they achieved last year in the Kherson and Kharkiv offensives. In both of those offensives, the Russians either had a planned retreat like in Kherson or they had way too few troops in the Kharkiv area to stop any serious Ukrainian advance.
It looks that the AFU offensive is going to fail. However, in the fog-of-war anything is possible.
If the Ukrainian great offensive is destroyed, the question becomes, what is the Russian response going to be? I think they will concentrate the taking of the Donbas in their own offensive.
All this could occur within months, not years.
I don’t see Russia launching directly against the USA or key NATO targets, until they take and secure the Donbas.
Posted by: young | May 12 2023 15:55 utc | 6
Despite the broadest political support, the OCU still does not have real parishioners, and raider seizures of churches lead to the fact that they are actually empty.
Thus, the temple in honor of the Kazan Icon of the Mother of God in the city of Khmelnitsky in western Ukraine, previously captured and renamed by the OCU, now stands empty. Neither the expulsion of the parishioners of the UOC from their church, nor its renaming was a sufficient reason for adherents of the OCU to attend services. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church stated that the same situation is developing with other temples of Khmelnytsky, taken from believers.
And in Cherkassy, no one has transferred from the parishes of the churches of the Moscow Patriarchate to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, and there are no volunteers yet either, according to the bishop of the OCU, Metropolitan of Cherkassy and Chigirinsky Vladyka John.
Moreover, as the Union of Orthodox Journalists notes, not one of the 623 communities of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church in the west of the country has transferred to the OCU.
At the same time, the undisguised robbery of church property with its subsequent resale is going on throughout Ukraine. Naturally, with the permission of the authorities.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17723
Posted by: Down South | May 12 2023 15:55 utc | 7
Trying to get real and accurate information is next to impossible. The fog of war is so thick you could cut it with a knife. I can plainly see that Washington and the west are bat shit crazy and capable of anything no matter how monstrous or stupid. Russia….well who the hell knows… Things haven’t added up on the Russian side since day one. Master plan or corrupt incompetence, your guess is as good as mine.
The one thing I am fairly sure of, as long as Russia doesn’t respond to western escalations, they will continue and increase….
Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 12 2023 15:56 utc | 8
@Firefly #5,
That kind of raises the question of why he’s still alive.
Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | May 12 2023 15:56 utc | 9
Russia giving ground on the flanks of Bakhmut.
https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1657033354405969923
I’m sure it is just 4-dimensional chess and luring the Ukrainians in and the like. No issue that Russia has struggled for months to capture Bakhmut. It’s a sneaky meat grinder. Sure…
Posted by: Anonymous | May 12 2023 15:56 utc | 10
Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President began to discuss with the General Staff the options for a series of small counteroffensives that would allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to get all Western equipment and Abrams tanks.
At Bankova, I expect to bargain with the United States or Britain for modern fighters, which will strengthen the Armed Forces of Ukraine before the Azov operation.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17725
Posted by: Down South | May 12 2023 15:56 utc | 11
[4]
I have never heard of a furnace foraging for wood
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 12 2023 15:57 utc | 12
The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Bakhmutovsky meat grinder continues. The new reserves thrown in are bearing fruit. Syrsky managed to get the result for the first time. Although reserves were sent to him at the beginning of January.
This time, they miraculously began to achieve success (the Russians have a scandal on the network that allegedly someone retreated). In reality, nothing is clear yet and the situation there can change often. No matter how it all turned out to be a trap.
In March, there could have been a turning point when thousands of soldiers’ lives could have been saved, but then everyone was silent and supported Zelensky’s idea to keep Bakhmut at any cost and start the offensive from him. For this, thousands of soldiers and equipment were thrown in. Only passenger vehicles (pickup trucks, passenger cars, etc.) were lost in the Bakhmutov meat grinder over 1000 pieces during these 4 months.
Back in February, we insided out that Zelensky would keep Bakhmut at any cost.
Now the Office of the President is trying to use this local success as something victorious to inspire the army. Even Zelensky immediately held a bet and promoted “his” general Syrsky. Although it is difficult to call it a success so far, there is already as much information PR as there was at the time of the Kharkov military campaign.
We observe, because both sides consider Bakhmut their conditional Stalingrad, which will change the course of events.
Posted by: Down South | May 12 2023 15:58 utc | 13
Having absolutely no knowledge or insight of the situation, I hope, hope, that Russia goes for Odessa and leaves the remnants of Ukraine for the scavengers.
Posted by: El Oso de Los Llanos | May 12 2023 15:58 utc | 14
A stalemate and compromise peace is now the best case for the US. That means that all other realistic possibilities are worse.
That does not mean they can now get their best case, it just means they could not possibly get anything better.
In fact, by their refusal to face reality, the West is driving this to a far worse end, in which they cannot get even a stalemate.
We should realize that inside the US neocon movement, they want a worse outcome for Ukraine. What they want is a prolonged insurgency, totally destroying the place and ruining all the people, but bleeding Russia. They *want* a Ukraine that is much like Syria.
Posted by: Mark Thomason | May 12 2023 15:58 utc | 15
Why is the SMO going so badly. Today we will touch upon this (it never ends with the Kremlin)…
Did you know that Maria Zakharova was married in New York City? What in Putin’s name is going on with these Kremlin clowns? THEY ALL make sure that the most important people and events in their lives happen in the USA/Europe. These are Godless scum. Filth. Trashy photos for a trashy group.
https://www.kp.ru/daily/26603/3622824/
https://s14.stc.yc.kpcdn.net/share/i/4/1203731/wr-750.webp
Posted by: Clyde | May 12 2023 16:00 utc | 16
@1
Sheesh, didn’t we all go through this on the last thread?
There is no Ukrainian large-scale counter-offensive. Outside of the Artemovsk area, where some fields got taken on the flanks, and Wagner continues to advance in the city, all we got was a bunch of psy-ops on TG and some #fails around Soledar.
YouTubers like MilitarySummary did probably buy themselves a nice steak dinner off all the ad-revenue.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 12 2023 16:01 utc | 17
Mobilization does not give the desired result, which forces the General Staff to look for new methods and approaches: the authorities want to reduce the age limit for citizens to be on the military register of conscripts, and summonses for men can now be obtained in any region, regardless of where they are on the military register.
Thus, the Cabinet of Ministers introduced a bill to parliament that reduces the age limit for citizens on military registration of conscripts from 27 to 25 years. The main goal of the project is to allow the Ministry of Defense to mobilize citizens from the age of 25. While they are listed as conscripts and the mobilization of these citizens is prohibited by law.
In parallel with this, according to the changes made to the rules for serving the summons, now you can get it in any region, regardless of where you are on military records. The new edition of the rules has corrected this gap and clearly regulates the possibility of any Territorial Center for Consultations and the Calling Service to carry out the call of citizens during mobilization, regardless of their location on the register.
Also, the fact that it is now possible to obtain a summons in any region cannot be the basis for a possible appeal when serving a summons.
“Now, if a person who is registered, for example, in Kiev, is handed a summons in Uzhgorod, and such a person does not appear, then the head of the Uzhgorod TCC and the joint venture will have every right to impose an administrative penalty on the person. And this will lead to administrative liability,” lawyers say.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17721
Posted by: Down South | May 12 2023 16:03 utc | 18
Chris Hafferty @ 4
“It seems like a stale mate has developed in the war. Russia seems to have little desire to launch a major offensive. While Ukraine currently is lacking the equipment to likewise launch a major offensive. The question is how long will each side stay committed to their war objectives?? Is Russia really a bear with no claws?? Is the West coalition really stronger than thought six months ago?”
RESPONSE: Russia is not just fighting Ukraine, it is fighting the USA and NATO. This explains the slow and careful movements on part of the Russians.
I see Russia as the bear of Daniel 7:5. That bear definitely has claws. It first rises up on one side. I see the Ukrainian conflict as the Russian bear rising up on its Western side, that is Ukraine. The Daniel 7:5 bear has 3 ribs in its mouth between its teeth. This could be Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk. If so, the Russian bear will fully arise after the taking of these 3 areas and devour much flesh. It’s claws will become very effective at warfare and inflicting pain upon its enemies.
Watch for when it looks like the Russian bear is about to take the rest of Luhansk and Donetsk. This may be a very good time to get out out of the USA or any of her territories for a long vacation.
Posted by: young | May 12 2023 16:07 utc | 19
@Intelligent Dasein, #9, My guess would be because it is still expedient and helpful for him to remain alive. Not for much longer I’m thinking.
Posted by: Firefly | May 12 2023 16:08 utc | 20
🇬🇧🇺🇦 Ukrainian resources have published a video of the shelling of positions of the Russian Armed Forces south of the Berkhovsky reservoir.
After the shelling, a unit of the RF Armed Forces left the occupied forest plantation and retreated to the east.
The exact coordinates of the left position: 48.632807, 37.943639
This is the first video confirmation of the retreat of the RF Armed Forces in the Bogdanovka-Berkhovka sector.
We published the current front line near Bakhmut at 15:00, then only assuming that the defense was occupied along the eastern outskirts of the reservoir. Unfortunately, the published video confirms our conclusions.
After the publication of the map, another video message from Yevgeny Prigozhin was released: the head of the Wagner PMC once again accused the Russian Ministry of Defense of the collapse of the front.
We do not know for what reason the section of the front was abandoned, what kind of contingent was on the defensive there, and why, after a light shelling, the whole unit retreats, and does not hold the position. Usually as a result of just such a “retreat” people die even more.
Posted by: Down South | May 12 2023 16:13 utc | 21
Following along, even from far away, is nerve racking. What I’m hoping to learn is that the Russians have bits of cheese in traps all over the US backed former state of Ukraine. I fear the longer this lingers the more time the Nuland administration has to plot evil tricks.
Posted by: chunga | May 12 2023 16:15 utc | 22
Ah, a new influx of dead soul trolls to muck up the thread as per their design. Not one shed of credible information as usual.
@young, #19, I would like to know why you think that Donbas area would be taken first before Russia would nuke the USA? I’m not being facetious or difficult, I genuinely would like to know.
As far as leaving the USA, the radiation flux from a large scale nuclear exchange would be sufficient to irradiate much of the entire world.
Posted by: Firefly | May 12 2023 16:22 utc | 24
Zakharova got married at the Russian consulate in New York City in 2005. Today she wouldn’t probably get anywhere near.
Posted by: Jonathan W | May 12 2023 16:24 utc | 25
Really responding to yesterday’s piece, I read the Foreign Affairs article before perusing the now 400+ comments. It seemed to me that the FA piece was written with a fundamental misunderstanding of the probable loss exchange to date and the likely trajectory of the future fighting.
Speaking of which there seems to be consternation that a few small UAF probing attacks (platoon or company strengths it seems) have gained some ground. I would be surprised if they did not. Fixed defences generally went out of fashion in 1916 and ever since most armies have adopted some form of elastic defence. This means the front line is outposts only and any attack will be pulled into a main line or lines of defences, all the while taking losses from fire, and then be counter attacked. Lines is even a misnomer as positions are prepared for all round defence – so clusters of “clumps”. When fixed defences are offered up it simply provides a target for enemy artillery, as the Ukrainians have discovered.
I have said elsewhere that whatever result the UAF attacks gain they will be hailed by the propaganda machine as great victories. So maybe (??) 80 Russian troops holding an outpost “line” over 2 or 3 km fell back into deeper defences – per doctrine. This is hardly any reason to claim a victory or that Russian troops are incapable of fighting. Ukrainian losses will be light simply because they have not really committed any big numbers of troops.
Looks to me like both sides are keen not to over commit before they can ascertain where the main event will take place. Multiple small strikes by Ukrainian seems designed to disperse Russian reserves and keep them guessing, whilst trying to claim a media victory – maybe also in part targeted at Russian morale. The ISR of both sides makes strategic surprise almost impossible. So unbalancing is the name of the game.
Posted by: marcjf | May 12 2023 16:29 utc | 26
Last years great million man army summer offensive took place in the autumn with around 30k participants against an outnumbered russian expeditionary force.
To see them frittering away the last weapons and machinery available from the west is confusing and illogical.
Posted by: Oh | May 12 2023 16:37 utc | 27
I will say that Western dogs keep barking, and the bloody clawed bear keeps walking. Sauntering, even.
If you have a problem with how the Russians are winning, take it up with Putin. I’m sure the executives didn’t consider your pedestrian thinking!
Mind you, its clear the West has no fucking plan since the sanctions failed, its all idiot improvisation and media screeching.
..unless you honestly believe pushing Russia into a defacto military alliance with China was part of the plan, in which case you’re an imbecile.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 12 2023 16:41 utc | 28
“AFU used missiles with a firing range of 150 km during the shelling of Lugansk, retired LPR Lieutenant Colonel Andrei Marochko told TASS. In his Telegram channel, he called the incident an expected provocation. Today the Republic Day is celebrated in the LPR”
Posted by: rk | May 12 2023 16:44 utc | 29
I’m dumbfounded that I still read “neocon” in apparently serious posts. How can anyone with a pulse honestly be convinced that there are somehow partyline differences when it comes to globalist plans and warmongering? If there’s a poisoned milkshake in a nice tall ceramic cup with two straws, does the left or right straw somehow seem more palatable to you? I can’t wrap my head around how in the year 2023 there are still individuals seemingly real live literate living breathing adult americans that believe in party differences when it comes to foreign relations. Government agitprop and the american educational system really has paid off miraculously well if people are still scapegoating neocons the crazies from the pentagon basement whom decades ago encorporated the middle east into their diabolic world domination continuation plans. Everyone else though apparently who co-opted equally evil plans for continued world domination but focused outside of the middle east, like oh maybe say the word humanitarian then africa, and south america gets a free pass! Doesn’t matter if they funded the gulf wars, voted for the gulf wars knowing full-well all the lies, knew of the war plans years in advance and went along with it, all good, they’re on the OTHER side, free pass!
Sorry no evil is evil. What’s different about
Gulf of Tonkin plans? One-sided? No. Lusitania sacrifice? One-sided? No. Pearl Harbor? One-sided? No. Globalists don’t have sides or wings! Counsel on Foreign Relations? One-sided? No. Bildergerg Group? One-sided? No. The Trilateral Commission? One-sided? No. The World Economic Forum? One-sided? No.
Money goes to every minion regardless of what letter they decide to put beside their name. It’s not now nor ever has been those bastards on the “other side” that’s to blame for government’s evil, it’s the entire thing top down. No one can solve anything or even begin to understand what’s going on if they keep clinging to such nonsense, which is exactly why the globalists’ plans are still functioning in the year 2023. Maybe I’m reading too much into it and the general population doesn’t know of anything else in their lexicon for an evil warmonger satanist in the government, so they default to “neocons”.
The west doesn’t give a crap what happens to ukraine at this point they’ve already accomplished their goal. Any offensive/counter-offensive only affects another MIC arms package or two. NS2 will never come into service, germany and the rest of the EU are now absolutely subservient to us/uk. They’re managing to use the created energy crisis & global warming to crash the domestic economies for WEF agenda 2030 great reset, there’s now a failed state full of western-backed terrorists right next door to Russia. Severing ties between Germany and Russia has long been a goal, defense departments earned trillions, the deepstate creeps can report back to their nephilim reptilian overlords that they’re progressing nicely on reducing atmospheric CO2 levels, and regardless of what Russia does now there’s a failed state at their border that will be way more dangerous than just yet another NATO state. Don’t get me wrong if Russia wanted to they could actually isolate the ukraine from foreign shipments destroying ports and basically going all shock and awe at the civilian population and infrastructure and occupy all of ukraine but I think Putin is just trying to keep things from getting worse because he knows after this offensive it’s over regardless of its success. Seeing as how no one in the west or ukraine seems to care about success or casualties, i think they’ll go for Crimea. Beach landing followed by destroying the bridges if they capture the naval base they’ll have retaken Crimea in the eyes of the media and Russia can do whatever the hell it wants with eastern ukraine and deal with ongoing terrorist attacks on civilians and infrastructure from the failed state. I pray Putin has a good intel and can work out a deal better than I can forsee.
Posted by: NJH | May 12 2023 16:46 utc | 30
posted by Down South #13 from a tg channel …
‘We observe, because both sides consider Bakhmuth their conditional Stalingrad, which will change the course of events.’
NO. There is no real equivalence between the two. The former looks to be intentional RF tactic to draw in and destroy enemy – the latter an accident of history and way way way bigger in its impact.
Big Serge had a good piece on this recently – don’t have the link available at the moment …
At the mo the AFU [Azov in sw] are tweaking on the flanks … tweaking. let’s not get too excited …
Posted by: Don Firineach | May 12 2023 16:46 utc | 31
@Clyde
‘Did you know that Maria Zakharova was married in New York City?‘
Common I mean Psaki picture with a Russian communist socialist hat… https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Zakharova#/media/File%3ASpokesperson_Psaki_Poses_in_a_New_Hat_With_Russian_Counterpart_and_Their_Respective_Bosses_(11930586556).jpg
She is a foreign diplomat worker… she has an excuse.
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Posted by: Innuendo | May 12 2023 16:50 utc | 32
The modest gains by Ukies would be no gains at all without the massive media hype about the counter offensive. This is obviously a case of “overpromise, underdeliver” in the context of “any publicity is good publicity”. Then again, maybe the ground is really getting harder – though it is unclear why that would benefit either side over the other.
Posted by: Jonathan W | May 12 2023 16:52 utc | 33
Too many paid fools with agendas and narrow minded simpletons with way too many ruts and divots in their brains the last couple days. Sigh. And those that disparge internet commentators w/out giving alternatives.
This pacifist socialist was mildly shocked years ago when he found out the much of what he was reading against war was via Libertarians. I did not stop reading them. Judge Napolitano had Scott Horton on y/day, Horton is a Rand Paul style libertarian, antiwar.com has been up over 20 years. America’s Role in Ukraine and the World – Scott Horton
1994 my 12 step sponsor, reading my 4th step, read my numerous Quixote thrusts of civil disobedience against nuclear weapons(13) and stated, “paxmark1, when I sign to certify a (Aegis) ship as ready to be deployed by the USN, I am certifying it as a nuclear weapons capable platform. Do you still want me as your sponsor? I did. ChemEng from Tuskeegee, he worked for Ingalls in Pascagoula MS.
The May 11th Napolitano show with Scott Horton had the best summation of the Mark1 (Mk1) Aegis ashore and possible usage as an offensive platform, I have heard in a long time.
Very broad strokes for Hortons talk late 1990’s to mostly 2014. End comment went to when the Ukraine and usOfa do talks to put an end to the SMO, the usOfa will have to remove the Aegis ashore nuclear weapons capable platforms from Romania and Poland, or RF will remove them.
If anyone has a favourite Horton book, post why and I might buy it.
Posted by: paxmark1 | May 12 2023 16:53 utc | 34
From the end of the previous thread: A week ago a barfly gave a link to an Italian blogger. It is Nikolai Lillin, blogger and writer, a pseudonym for Nicolai Verjbitkii (born in Transdnistria in 1980, migrated to Italy in 2004). He is the real deal. Forget a moment all these Anglo-Americans blogging about the conflict, who mostly only have secondary sources, even Martyanov who lives abroad since 40 years. Lillin is pro Russian and has first hand contacts in the Russian and even in the Ukrainian military bloggers. As a man of twenty he served in the Chechnya operations. With some of the present day military bloggers he got acquainted personally during his service there.
Two podcasts per day on his Youtube channel on average. On his Telegram channel he can show more or course. All you need to know about Prigozyn that the Duran etc. does not tell you:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3falnfXvmwo&t=4s
Most barflies are English speakers or at least have English as their first foreign language. Well forget about that for a moment, brush up your Italian or run a good translation programme. To be well informed in well researched and clear podcasts is vital with the onslaughts of troll batteries on this website the last weeks.
Posted by: Teraspol | May 12 2023 17:06 utc | 35
British rockets flew over Lugansk. We got to the Polipak plant.
Today’s arrival had several goals:
1. This blow occurred on the day of the republic of the LPR (symbolism here).
2. An attempt to instill panic in Luhansk, which has not heard explosions in the city for a long time and has begun to get used to more or less quiet days.
3. Checking the Russians, their reaction. The next one will fly exactly to the Crimea.
4. Checking air defense lines in depth
5. An attempt to force the Russians to transfer more air defense to the rear of the LPR, which was removed from there a long time ago.
Posted by: Down South | May 12 2023 17:07 utc | 36
@ Chris Hafferty | May 12 2023 15:49 utc | 4
It’s not a stalemate. Russia and its friends gain with every squandered piece of western military equipment, and with every non-dollar trade deal signed among themselves.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | May 12 2023 17:09 utc | 37
3 to 5 are samples of retardness. Why transfer air defense to the rear when it’s far easier to drop a few FABs on Kiev? This TG channel must have writers from UK, no one else is that dumb, not even Americans.
Posted by: rk | May 12 2023 17:11 utc | 38
It should be noted that Lugansk, where something exploded and is burning on a large scale, is relatively far from the front line – more than a hundred kilometers.
Of those missiles that are officially in service with Ukraine, Tochka U can cover such a distance, but they are relatively easy to shoot down.
The Russians have recently said that Ukraine has begun using the Grom tactical system, which can cover a distance of up to 500 kilometers. Although, as claimed in the Russian Federation, these missiles were invariably shot down. Ukraine did not confirm the use of “Thunder”.
A drone could also reach Lugansk, although they rarely attack through the front line, saturated with troops and surveillance systems.
Russian military publications are already writing that missiles were fired at Lugansk by an aircraft from the Ukrainian-controlled Kramatorsk region (this is about 130 kilometers). Hinting that the strike was carried out by the recently delivered British Storm Shadow air-launched missiles, which can hit 290 kilometers.
It should be noted that Ukrainian Telegram channels are already writing “God save the King” about this, also hinting at the fact that the British missile has worked.
But there is no official confirmation of any of these versions yet.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/45698
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine made it clear that the long-range Storm Shadow missiles received from the UK are intended to hit the naval base of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation in Sevastopol.
“The moment when you realize that the distance from the front line to warships with Caliber missiles in the Sevastopol Bay is 298 km 700 meters,” such a caption on Twitter is accompanied by a photo of the laughing President of Ukraine and the Prime Minister of Britain.
By the way, today Zelensky had a telephone conversation with Rishi Sunak, during which he thanked the Briton for Storm Shadow
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/45704
Posted by: Down South | May 12 2023 17:13 utc | 39
If anyone has a favourite Horton book, post why and I might buy it.
Posted by: paxmark1 | May 12 2023 16:53 utc | 34
“Horton hears a who” is my favorite. Antiwar has so much MSM propaganda on it now that I rarely go there.
Posted by: jr | May 12 2023 17:14 utc | 40
I see that a ADM-160B MALD was found in Luhansk. I wonder if Russia fired at it and what type of airplane the Russia target library claimed it to be.
Posted by: Tim | May 12 2023 17:14 utc | 41
Posted by: Down South | May 12 2023 16:13 utc | 21
‘We do not know for what reason the section of the front was abandoned..’
But it won’t stop you from making I’ll-informed, speculative, comments that just happen to boost follower numbers, by creating an artificial narrative of imminent danger.
Good job such outlets were not available in the Great Patriotic War, heaven knows how they would have reacted to events, even as late as 44-45.
Posted by: Milites | May 12 2023 17:15 utc | 42
Big Serge shows a lot more thinkin’ than 90% of the spam on these threads:
https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1657017468815314944?cxt=HHwWgMDU9fmm9P4tAAAA
Cue the “copium” chorus …
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 12 2023 17:16 utc | 43
It is a Schrödinger’s war.
Maybe less so than previous.
We can not actually know what is happening.
By the time we “know”, it is in the past.
Posted by: jared | May 12 2023 17:17 utc | 44
The west getting more desperate everyday. Pretty sure they’re at the point of asking everyone to write down ideas and put them in a hat. Ah shit, that didn’t work, pick another one. Fuck! One of these has to work eventually. Putin and Xi must have some great laughing sessions watching the clown show.
Posted by: Watzov | May 12 2023 17:18 utc | 45
@ NJH | May 12 2023 16:46 utc | 30
The term “neocon” designates a type of thinking, not a party affiliation.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | May 12 2023 17:19 utc | 46
I see no evidence yet of an offensive by AFU.
I do see evidence of recon and probing of Russian defences in the Bakhmut area.
This could well be setting the stage for larger operations.
For the AFU to be doing this, I think it safe to assume they have brought up reserves to achieve some degree of localized superiority of forces.
If they find success, it would be logical to reinforce that success.
Of course it is also logical that the Russians will respond by sending reinforcements to counter.
These events are unlikely to be decided in a day or even days. Only then will we see if the operations in this area are going to be large scale or merely relief of Bakhmut.
A large operation in the Bakhmut area could be an attempt to divert Russian reserves from other areas where the AFU could launch the ‘real offensive’.
This does not mean, a tactical retreat here or there from one defensive line to the next is a cause of great concern in the first few days of any operation for either side. Each army can be expected to strike here or parry there in the first few days or even weeks. No one defends a single line. It will take that long for any large operation to begin to establish a pattern that we can then begin to deduce intentions or outcomes.
It is foolish to try to deduce those outcomes prior to that.
It is likewise foolish to underestimate or overestimate either sides capabilities before we’ve had a chance to see maps change significantly. Both combatants are deadly foes with strengths and weaknesses that will only be revealed in the coming days if an offensive by the AFU is truly in the offing.
A limited offensive in the Bakhmut area by AFU to relieve the city may be a good option for the AFU from a political standpoint especially if they have been significantly degraded over the last few months. I am not precluding them from being able to launch a larger operation there or elsewhere.
I think the Russians are content to see where the main blow is going to land, soak it up and then counterattack a la Manstein’s Backhand Blow in the Kharkov area ’43.
This is what it seems to me, without any special insight into Russian intentions, the Russian’s are doing.
Armchair Generals are gonna armchair things.
Posted by: Bubaroonicus | May 12 2023 17:19 utc | 47
#4… this is SMO….not a war…..War would end with 1-2 weeks in March 2022…there is more than liberate Ukr.(russian speaking) part… but demolish NATO/EU economy…I am surprise sooooooooo many here in the MOA still do not get it…and I do not talk about trools…
@46 Figleaf23
Thank you for letting me know what it means to you. I’m wondering if most people don’t agree at this point that the term’s meaning has deviated from its root.
Posted by: NJH | May 12 2023 17:27 utc | 49
“Big Serge shows a lot more thinkin’ than 90% of the spam on these threads:
https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1657017468815314944?cxt=HHwWgMDU9fmm9P4tAAAA
Cue the “copium” chorus …
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 12 2023 17:16 utc | 43″
That is a very reasonable hypothesis.
Unfortunately Comedian and Co do not operate in the realms of logic and reason.
All Comedian and co care about is the PR optics and the trolling on the internets. Which means they are most likely trying to gain some miserable blocks in Artymosk at the expense of thousands of Ukranian meat sausages.
Posted by: Comandante | May 12 2023 17:28 utc | 50
@paxmark1 #34
Scott Horton is a great interviewer- lots of his interviews are on line for free. Book wise, I have ‘Enough Already’ and ‘Fool’s Errand’. His wife (journalist Larisa Alexandrovna) was born in Odessa during the Soviet era. Most of his focus until recently has been on the Middle East and Afghanistan.
Posted by: BillB | May 12 2023 17:39 utc | 51
Nuclear capable Russian CH-55 missile was found undetonated in a forest near Bydgoszcz, Poland.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/military-object-found-polish-forest-was-russian-missile-media-2023-05-10/
Posted by: Pudding | May 12 2023 17:40 utc | 52
Still not see anything on newsenglish about ukraines offensive.
Wondering if hype seeing here is spoiled.
It’s Friday over here, Americans are partying, having good time toasting. Friday here means drinking.
Don’t see anything on TV about kyev anymore but sports. There is playoffs in basketball.
I thought offensive was in spring, but that’s in April? Yes! Automobiles vehicles can move in mud no problem, tank tracks love mud,
builtfor
mud, that’s tracks designed. Spring thaw happened early also, not a bad winter, so ground already thaw months ago. There no mountain and elevation in combat zone is arm.
Why excuses about weather since last year on comments, is defeated excuse of loser. Please help me understand why weather is somehow a important today versus thousands of years of war.
Posted by: Miguel | May 12 2023 17:43 utc | 53
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 12 2023 17:16 utc | 43
Big Serge ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺
@witte_sergei
·
2h
Of course they just want to stabilize the supply situation for the remaining defenders – either way, all this action is limited to unblocking the road. The idea that the front is collapsing or something is unhinged
Are you another one of Ukrainian nationalism’s erect simpletons?
Posted by: anon2020 | May 12 2023 17:46 utc | 54
Posted by: Pudding | May 12 2023 17:40 utc | 52
Nuclear capable Russian CH-55 missile was found undetonated in a forest near Bydgoszcz, Poland.
Currently, Bydgoszcz is the biggest center of NATO headquarters in Poland, the most known being the Joint Force Training Centre.
“Found”
😮
Posted by: ChatNPC | May 12 2023 17:54 utc | 55
Note. Many are again pushing Zelensky into peace talks, the process has even been launched. Ze flies to Italy/Vatican, then the Chinese special envoy flies, where he will discuss the peace case.
At this point, the British were back in the game and upped the ante by giving Kyiv long-range missiles. Previously, they gave a UAV to strike at the Kremlin, and also helped arrange an “assassination attempt” on Prilepin and, before that, the murder with the help of an explosion of blogger Tatarsky, and so on. They also put pressure on the ICC.
All sources are confident that the British can even organize a tragedy or catastrophe in order to once again disrupt the end of the Ukrainian crisis, on which their corporations earn super profits.
It was the Brits who disrupted Istanbul-1, then all the other negotiation processes.
Our insider October layout is still up to date.
Posted by: Down South | May 12 2023 17:58 utc | 56
A noteworthy article from The Intel Drop on the dreaded Storm Shadow missiles:
https://t.ly/PBRn
It states:
Storm Shadows are designed to operate from Eurofighter Typhoon, Rafale, Mirage 2000, and Tornado jets. Ukraine has none of these planes, and the UK and NATO have so far been reluctant to hand over advanced aircraft to Kiev amid reported fears that Russia would quickly decimate them.
…
In addition to targeting the weapons on route to their destinations, air bases, or Ukraine’s remaining inventory of fighters and bombers, Russia can respond to the delivery of Storm Shadows by further shoring up its layered missile defenses.
It includes remarks by Sergey Khatylev, former head of the anti-aircraft missile forces of the Moscow Air Defense Special Forces Command:
Khatylev pointed out that delivery means for the Storm Shadows are only one part of the equation. The other is Russian air power and air defenses. “We aren’t allowing Ukraine’s Air Force to fly. Russian aviation has won air superiority. If they use these missiles from aircraft, it would actually be good for us, because it’s easier to target airplanes than missiles themselves. We’ll hit the carriers. The kill zone of the S-400 is several hundred kilometers; upon entering this zone, it will simply destroy the carrier,” the reserve colonel said.
Let’s not forget the hyperbolic buzz in the mainstream media about the following weapon systems:
FGM-148 Javelin
M777 155mm Field Howitzer
RGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missiles
M142 HIMARS
etc.
We saw a similar escalation in weaponry during the Vietnam war. North Vietnam — with the aid of the Soviet Union and China — adjusted its tactics well enough.
The officials of the United Kingdom — mostly men and women who sit behind desks and give us clever speeches from time to time — are experts at sowing fear and doubt. It’s their job, after all.
Posted by: HeyHeyHey | May 12 2023 18:05 utc | 57
The offensive is real when the Zap nuclear Power plant is seriously under attack and could be captured by Ukraine. The ukes will destroy it and irradiated that region. That was the Defence Ministers threat. All else is tickling the front line right now.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 12 2023 18:06 utc | 58
@HeyHeyHey | May 12 2023 18:05 utc | 57
Some people buy a carriage before they buy a horse.
Posted by: rk | May 12 2023 18:11 utc | 59
Let’s not forget the hyperbolic buzz in the mainstream media about the following weapon systems:
FGM-148 Javelin
M777 155mm Field Howitzer
RGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missiles
M142 HIMARS
etc.
Posted by: HeyHeyHey | May 12 2023 18:05 utc | 57
This is silly. All of those shipments have had a dramatic effect on the war.
If it was a Harpoon that sunk the Moskva, it had a great effect — the Black Sea Fleet has not entered the space around Odessa since then.
HIMARS obviously had a great effect — they disrupted logistics and forced the withdrawal from Kherson. The latter could of course have been avoided with escalation in other areas, but with the cucktain in chief calling the shots, nothing of the sort was even attempted.
Without the M777s Ukraine would have long been retreating back to the Dnieper. Yeah, it isn’t all that great of a weapon on its own, but the alternative was no large-caliber artillery left.
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 12 2023 18:14 utc | 60
Is somebody lying here? Or what’s the explanation?
One gets the impression of a beleaguered Russian force, retreating a bit until Wagner saves the day. So, Ukraine succumbs to naive hope in Bakhmut.
Meanwhile, around Soledar, a huge Ukr. force including 40 tanks gets whacked and stopped dead. No muss, no fuss, 1600 dead or wounded, 9 tanks lost. Like it was no big deal.
It looks fishy. I’m leaning towards Russia faking weakness in Bakhmut to draw more Ukr forces in – since delusional Zelensky just won’t stop wasting men and machines, OCD style. Azov guys and mercenaries? Again, looks like they are wasting the best. I respect that other explanations could explain the contrast. Maybe Syrski and Zaluzhny are fed up.
Posted by: Eighthman | May 12 2023 18:18 utc | 61
> Posted by: Pudding | May 12 2023 17:40 utc | 52
Nuclear capable Russian CH-55 missile was found undetonated in a forest near Bydgoszcz, Poland.
Currently, Bydgoszcz is the biggest center of NATO headquarters in Poland, the most known being the Joint Force Training Centre.
“Found”
😮
Posted by: ChatNPC | May 12 2023 17:54 utc | 55
I think the official version is that a farmer found the missile in the woods and alerted the authorities. The military then sat on the story for several weeks before acknowledging what happened. This seems to spark a minor outrage in Polish media/gov right now with calls for resignations among the military.
I cannot judge if it’s real or fake outrage to further propagandize the populace. However, I think it might be the case that the missile flew into Poland by accident, undetected by radar, embarrassing the Polish military. Another version is that Russia notified the Polish military to deescalate and avoid triggering Article 5.
Posted by: Pudding | May 12 2023 18:18 utc | 62
Claims a Kinzhal killed NATO generals in a Ukraine bunker are probably incorrect. Good analysis here by Ron Unz.
https://www.unz.com/runz/did-a-russian-missile-strike-kill-200-nato-officers-in-a-ukrainian-bunker/
Posted by: Pudding | May 12 2023 18:23 utc | 63
Posted by: Miguel | May 12 2023 17:43 utc | 53
Implicitly, you have perfectly defined what a war means to those who view it from the safety of watching events without experiencing them in the flesh. Just like a show. Another Friday in our live, oblivious to the suffering that does not touch us.
The frivolity and moral indecency of those who watch and applaud this carnage, believing it to be a basketball game, is significant. Instead of being humble and evaluating the terrible consequences of the fight for thousands of human beings, the cowards take refuge in anonymity so that their team wins.
Other cowards with first and last names are more despicable: they make money from the pain of others with narratives that try to confuse the aforementioned spectators, and generate more conflict.
Shame on the blood of fathers running through their veins!
.
Posted by: Lalita | May 12 2023 18:26 utc | 64
Most people here have no patience. Things have to move on fast. So we lose the big picture. The Russian radical right wing politician Zhirinovsky (1946-1922) was a colourful figure and a loud mouth but he was accurate in a lot of his predictions. A conflict with the West in Ukraine in order to wear the West down might take 10 years, he argued. When they then finally turn to China, they would be so much weakened that they cannot take on a collaborating China and Russia anymore. Do not tell me that the West will convert to war economy in two-three years, it takes a decade to train the industrial work force for these highly skilled jobs. Moreover a for profit MIC makes over priced and not always qualitative products. Essential tasks such as the mass production of artillery munition are neglected because in normal circumstances they are not in high demand. For attacking third world countries missiles and a small ground force are enough. But not so in a ground war like this.
Posted by: Teraspol | May 12 2023 18:27 utc | 65
@46 Figleaf23
Thank you for letting me know what it means to you. I’m wondering if most people don’t agree at this point that the term’s meaning has deviated from its root.
Posted by: NJH | May 12 2023 17:27 utc | 49
https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/06/20/being-a-neocon-means-never-having-to-say-youre-sorry/
Posted by: Drinky Crow | May 12 2023 18:33 utc | 66
@Posted by: Mark Thomason | May 12 2023 15:58 utc | 15
The problem for the west with this strategy is that Russia is refusing to be bled at all. Their military is larger, more well equipped, and better trained than last year. In addition, their military industry is more productive as well. The same cannot be said for the Ukraine (or for the rest of the west for that matter). The ones being bled are Europe and the USA, through their own stupidity.
Posted by: FVK | May 12 2023 18:39 utc | 67
@ shadowbanned | May 12 2023 18:14 utc | 60
I disagree.
Posted by: HeyHeyHey | May 12 2023 18:42 utc | 68
@Chris Hafferty | May 12 2023 15:49 utc | 4
Its not so much a case of the bear having no claws, the bear is just bloody lazy. The bear knows that it is so big with so much blubber that it can take prodding indefinitely.
One benefit of the bear’s SloMO ambition is that the bear can test out its basic weaponry and game plan without really using its more advanced weapon systems. So,for instance, the bear has now got into the drone business whereas before the bear was unconcerned about drones because the only battle the bear was geared towards fighting was high intensity, high casualty total wars. Small little wars were never the bear’s forte, but now the bear has been forced to adapt and is even using irregulars (Wagner), along with the drones and so on. The bear will only get better at this SMO game in the future as its scientists begin developing new weapon systems and tactics for these ever lasting low intensity skirmishes. Low intensity skirmishes are the only battle the West can fight currently. The bear might as well indulge the West in this regard as the West is collapsing anyway, so no need for overkill, just play along and see what happens, while keeping the main heavy tank battle forces and weaponry in reserve.
Posted by: gT | May 12 2023 18:44 utc | 69
Most people here have no patience. Things have to move on fast. So we lose the big picture. The Russian radical right wing politician Zhirinovsky (1946-1922) was a colourful figure and a loud mouth but he was accurate in a lot of his predictions. A conflict with the West in Ukraine in order to wear the West down might take 10 years, he argued. When they then finally turn to China, they would be so much weakened that they cannot take on a collaborating China and Russia anymore. Do not tell me that the West will convert to war economy in two-three years, it takes a decade to train the industrial work force for these highly skilled jobs. Moreover a for profit MIC makes over priced and not always qualitative products. Essential tasks such as the mass production of artillery munition are neglected because in normal circumstances they are not in high demand. For attacking third world countries missiles and a small ground force are enough. But not so in a ground war like this.
Posted by: Teraspol | May 12 2023 18:27 utc | 65
.
.
Most of the people here have never been under fire, some not even in the military!
But they all have one thing in common:
They are clever and doubt everything that doesn’t fit into their reality…
And :
Everyone knows something else, which of course is almost 100% true.
Others can’t help but compare today’s war with the tactics of 1941, looking almost desperately similar.
Although today’s wars with their satellites and long-distance reconnaissance require completely different tactics!
But no matter:
98% of all commentators here have never been to Russia let alone have an idea of their mentality and leadership know the Kremlin with luck from the picture…..
ALL SPECIALISTS
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 12 2023 18:44 utc | 70
Posté par: Huitième | 12 mai 2023 18:18 UTC | 61
🇷🇺🇺🇦I just spoke with an officer who fights in the direction of Soledar. Yesterday, the Ukrainian armed forces undertook fairly large-scale offensive operations in their sector. The enemy artillery was active. The infantry of the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked our positions with the support of armored vehicles, including German Leopard tanks participating in this offensive. In the area of the village of Zaliznianskoye, one of the Leopards hit an anti-tank mine previously installed by Wagner fighters, and it lost its tracks in the explosion. One of the BMPs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that took part in the offensive tried to either drag the tank or cover the crew, but our fighters from volunteer detachmentsas well aswith the tank with hand-held anti-tank grenade launchers. All enemy attacks in the direction of Soledar have been repelled. And the fighters also pay attention to the lack of anti-tank weapons and demand ammunition for Wagner.
@NeoficialniyBeZsonoV
The Western Nazi material finally arrives at the front. Last step before destruction.
Even the Japanese are beaten.
Ukraine kamikaze.
Posted by: la bouteille | May 12 2023 18:49 utc | 71
A strike in Luhansk was carried out on empty workshops and the administrative building of the Polypak enterprise, a few kilometers from the city center. Until fragments of ammunition are found, it is difficult to say exactly what arrived.
Hardly newfangled British Storm Shadow. They beat more at random and without an exact target. For HIMARS – too far. Possible “Olcha” or “Tochka U” (if some are still lying around somewhere). A strike from an aircraft is not ruled out, but also from approximately the same zone, Kramatorsk or Chasov Yar.
Soloviev
Posted by: ostro | May 12 2023 18:58 utc | 72
Lugansk was shelled with the use of, presumably, two cruise missiles of the Grom complex of Ukrainian production.
Representation of the LPR in the JCCC.
Posted by: la bouteille | May 12 2023 18:58 utc | 73
Depleted Uranium! Depleted Uranium!!!
Run away! Run Away!!!!
Next thing you know, the Ukrainians will be simulating the sound of Cossack horsemen by banging two coconut halves together.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 12 2023 18:59 utc | 74
@ mo3.1 | May 12 2023 18:44 utc | 70:
“98% of all commentators here have never been to Russia let alone have an idea of their mentality and leadership know the Kremlin with luck from the picture…..”
_____
“We had the experience but missed the meaning” — Eliot, Four Quartets: The Dry Salvages (https://t.ly/WQlL)
How many of us have experienced war but missed the meaning? How many have no experience but see the meaning? One doesn’t have to be in ancient Athens to understand Socrates’ trial.
I’ve never been to Afghanistan, but I do realize the catastrophe that the United States brought to the people there. As for the men who fought there — some of them realize this, some of them do not.
Posted by: HeyHeyHey | May 12 2023 19:00 utc | 75
I think the official version is that a farmer found the missile in the woods and alerted the authorities. The military then sat on the story for several weeks before acknowledging what happened. This seems to spark a minor outrage in Polish media/gov right now with calls for resignations among the military.
I cannot judge if it’s real or fake outrage to further propagandize the populace. However, I think it might be the case that the missile flew into Poland by accident, undetected by radar, embarrassing the Polish military. Another version is that Russia notified the Polish military to deescalate and avoid triggering Article 5.
Posted by: Pudding | May 12 2023 18:18 utc | 62
Official story is one thing, but Bydgoszcz is well west of Warsaw and the notion that it overflew vast areas of Poland undetected and just happened to fall to earth right next to the NATO main training centre is stretching credulity.
The timing of the announcement too is very suspicious, given the way things are now heating up. Maybe the farmer hadn’t wandered across that part of his land in a while because weather, or something…
Posted by: ChatNPC | May 12 2023 19:01 utc | 76
Posted by: Teraspol | May 12 2023 17:06 utc | 35
Definitely I recommend Lilin too, excellent historial point of view concerning the dispute Wagner MOD RF. Good analysis of Wagner’s origin as a concept, a private company with origins in Tsarist imperial Russia.
Posted by: Paco | May 12 2023 19:16 utc | 77
It seems the only worthwhile fighting forces on Russia’s side are Prigozhins’s and Kadryov’s. I hope the uKrainian counteroffensive does not once again turn into a route for Russian forces. Putin needs to get rid of Shoigu but he won’t. He needs experienced generals not yes-men. But he does not have the sense nor humility for that it sadly seems
Posted by: West Coast | May 12 2023 19:21 utc | 78
Posted by: ChatNPC | May 12 2023 19:01 utc | 76
Strange indeed. Entirely possible it’s a completely fabricated propaganda story for internal consumption. Are the KH-55s circulating widely, i.e., could NATO get their hands on an undatonated one?
Posted by: Pudding | May 12 2023 19:21 utc | 79
So, the famous operational encirclement that was promised, what, six times already, around Bakhmut, has gone poof in one day. 2-3 weeks ago every Russian blogger was proudly declaring the last supply roads to Bakhmut blocked. Now the Ukies flexed some muscled and pushed Wagner back, and suddenly it’s “oh hum no big deal, just a few square meters of useless ground”.
When the Russians threaten to encircle every pro-Russian blogger or commenter jumps in excitement, confidently claiming it’s a matter of days. Week after, nothing happens and the Ukies push back, then suddenly the explanation is that it’s just a meat grinder. when the Russians win a few meters it’s being heralded as a huge success, when the Ukies get it back suddenly it’s only useless ground.
When the Russians flee in abject failure it’s a “regrouping”. When the only guy who is actually there, aka Prigozhin, tells it like it is and even PREDICTS what will happen, it’s dismissed as a paranoid rant, while people who sit on the other side of the Atlantic and have basically zero connection to the events assure with confidence that everything is going according to plan.
As Rolo Slavskiy says, it’s crazy to see such a disconnected world view. It seems the Z-loving crowd in the anglosphere have this kind of mythical image of an all-powerful Russian army with 200-IQ generals, when all the people who are actually on the ground, where it happens, tell us that the Russian army is in shambles. It’s just a hodgepodge of Wagner mixed in with a smattering of a few good troops and a lot of bad ones.
Posted by: Micron | May 12 2023 19:23 utc | 80
Victoria “Fuck the EU” Nuland in all her Neocon glory, from one disaster to another since 1993:
https://jamesburrillangell.substack.com/p/strange-diplomacy-victoria-fck-the
Posted by: Pudding | May 12 2023 19:21 utc | 79
Wikipedia (I know, I know, fwiw) lists it as old tech with Ukraine being a former operator. DYOR.
Posted by: ChatNPC | May 12 2023 19:24 utc | 82
I would like to know how the Ukrainians can mount ANY offensive without air cover, it makes no sense,also when are the Russians going to attack the leadership in Kiev and other places? as for the storm shadow missiles they have to be fitted to aircraft why is any airfield in Ukraine still in one piece?
Posted by: Englishman | May 12 2023 19:26 utc | 83
Meanwhile it’s been almost a year that we’ve been promised every day that Russia will soon launch its grand offensive. To Odessa and beyond ! Meanwhile they are progressing 50m a day, if at all, and penibly reaching the outskirts of Avdeevka (10km of Donetsk). No logical explanation given for that. How the same troops are supposed to suddenly perform giant leaps across open terrain in huge combined arms operations is a mystery.
Russians are slowly pushed out everywhere. Ugledar is being cleared up, the encirclement of Bakhmut (which never did really happen) is now definitely out of the question, the Ukies, which supposedly one year ago were confidently declared as incapable of any offensive, are gearing up. The Brits are delivering long-range missiles, and we all know that it’s matter of when, not if, the Ukies will get their modern fighters. Putin remains silent and the famous Kremlin red lines are evaporating. Nobody fears Russia anymore.
Posted by: Micron | May 12 2023 19:27 utc | 84
Regarding the Russian retreat back across the canal: this was one of the few, or only places near Bakhmut where the Russians had established on the west side of the canal. So any serious attack will force a withdrawal to safer positions on the east side. Now that the Ukronazis have backed the Russians off the two main supply routes to Bakhmut, if only a bit, it seems that a sane Ukraine government would use the opportunity to get their troops out of the city. But most here know they won’t, like a dog that has obtained a grip on a bone.
Russian strategy – sacrifice large amounts of ammo to attrite the enemy (includes NATO) until the AFU is no longer an effective force . Ukraine strategy – sacrifice large amounts of humans and armor to hold ground or make transitory gains that can be trumpeted by western media. Which side will be depleted of their resources first? Ukraine strategy definitely has a sell-by date. Ukraine strategy working is predicated on some hypothetical outcomes: 1) Big arrow offensive and Russian forces ‘panic.’ (As the saying goes, wish in one hand, crap in the other, see which one fills up first) 2) NATO cavalry rides to the rescue to save Fort Ukraine. 3) The terrorism option. A fast move to the Zap nuclear plant, take it over and play suicide bomber. Nuclear blackmail.
Seems to me that 3) is the only one with a snowball’s chance of working. And the one that concerns me the most.
Posted by: Mike R | May 12 2023 19:30 utc | 85
Posted by: Micron | May 12 2023 19:27 utc | 84
Speaking of promises, where is that Ukrainian counter offensive that was promised? Prigozhin, too, seems to be of any value for Western propaganda purposes insofar as he says something negative about Putin. He says many things, often quite contradictory, for instance that Wagner is still advancing.
Posted by: Jonathan W | May 12 2023 19:36 utc | 86
Dima says that Ukarinians managed to destroy a building in Lugansk with new cruise missile obtained from UK. What to say. Terrible.
Posted by: srbin | May 12 2023 19:36 utc | 87
Depleted Uranium! Depleted Uranium!!!
…
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 12 2023 18:59 utc | 74
For the bar, amongst other instances, there is plenty of information available on the large number of life-threatening illnesses and deaths of Italian soldiers who came into contact with expended DU munitions residue while stationed in the former Yugoslavia as peacekeepers. This has come up before so Fudd cannot plead ignorance.
Give it a rest, Fudd. you wretched stool gagger … or prove your sincerity by inhaling DU dust yourself.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 12 2023 19:38 utc | 88
The US has managed to stay out of the conflict by providing the Ukies with crap. So if the UK is going to provide them with something that is not crap is Britain going to be at war with Russia?
Posted by: Jonathan W | May 12 2023 19:40 utc | 89
Can anything be done against UK without inducing III world war?
Posted by: srbin | May 12 2023 19:42 utc | 90
Posted by: Pudding | May 12 2023 18:23 utc | 63
Thanks for that link. Ron Unz is one of maybe 3 or 4 reasonable voices that post at his own website. Calling it “lightly moderated” is an understatement with all of the nonsense that makes the front page there. Unz.com is a great example of a news and information source that one has to be very careful to double check what one sees in both the “legacy” and “alternative” media – as Ron Unz lays out in his analysis of the alleged deaths of 200 NATO officials (a ridiculous notion on its face that there would be that large a concentration much less of high ranking people).
To the trolls: LOL the copium is strong today. I hope you’re getting paid by the letter; otherwise what’s the point?
Re: Long range missile attacks on Sevastapol – When that happens all of western Ukraine will be a smoldering ruins within three days.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 12 2023 19:44 utc | 91
Wikipedia (I know, I know, fwiw) lists it as old tech with Ukraine being a former operator. DYOR.
Posted by: ChatNPC | May 12 2023 19:24 utc | 82
Thanks. This points further in the direction of planted / false flag-type event.
Posted by: Pudding | May 12 2023 19:44 utc | 92
Dima says that Ukarinians managed to destroy a building in Lugansk with new cruise missile obtained from UK.
Posted by: srbin | May 12 2023 19:36 utc | 88
Dima says…lot of BS!
Posted by: ostro | May 12 2023 19:46 utc | 93
Dima says that Ukarinians managed to destroy a building in Lugansk with new cruise missile obtained from UK.
Posted by: srbin | May 12 2023 19:36 utc | 88
Dima says…lot of BS!
Posted by: ostro | May 12 2023 19:46 utc | 94
Dima is telling truth. Everything else is wishful thinking.Even If we want Russia to win we cannot close our eyes. Everything that is now happening was predicted by Prygozin. Everything was known in advance.
Posted by: srbin | May 12 2023 19:49 utc | 94
Dima is telling truth.
Posted by: srbin | May 12 2023 19:49 utc | 95
Dima says…a lot of BS!
His wife is an Ukrainian…
Posted by: ostro | May 12 2023 19:52 utc | 95
@Clyde #16
Did you know that Maria Zakharova was married in New York City? What in Putin’s name is going on with these Kremlin clowns? THEY ALL make sure that the most important people and events in their lives happen in the USA/Europe.
This is why Russia since Peter the great always wanted to become full member of European Culture. Their last effort was the offer of peace guaranties in December 2021. So sad what happend.
Posted by: Johnny | May 12 2023 19:52 utc | 96
Srbin no. 91
Yes. Put Kier Starmer in charge.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | May 12 2023 19:55 utc | 97
This is why Russia since Peter the great always wanted to become full member of European Culture.
Posted by: Johnny | May 12 2023 19:52 utc | 97
What is this European culture? LGBTQ+?
Posted by: odtro | May 12 2023 19:56 utc | 98
@ 32
I think Peski was Kerry’s press secretary at the time. The Ushanka was a gift to Peski from Lavrov and the nick name that the Russians gave Peski was “Ragetty Anne” Red hair and no thoughts of her own.
Posted by: Kluch Kargo | May 12 2023 19:57 utc | 99
Question for the bar: Has Zaluzhny shown up, or still M.I.A.?
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 12 2023 20:00 utc | 100