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May 7, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-109
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict. The current open thread for other issues is here. Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Comments
Progozhin’s meltdown was staged, but for a different reason than anyone has speculated. His army had taken a sizable hit and he needed to transfer the blame off of his own shoulders. Any time we see rage of that sort, it should be realized that it’s for stagecraft effects. Posted by: Up North | May 7 2023 20:58 utc | 101 ❗️ There were several hits in the Odessa region and in Odessa itself. The infrastructure facility is on fire. Posted by: unimperator | May 7 2023 20:59 utc | 102 Posted by: Dacian | May 7 2023 16:57 utc | 34 Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 7 2023 20:59 utc | 103 Posted by: unimperator | May 7 2023 20:59 utc | 103 Posted by: unimperator | May 7 2023 21:00 utc | 104 Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 7 2023 20:48 utc | 98 Posted by: West of England Andy | May 7 2023 21:02 utc | 105 Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 7 2023 20:48 utc | 98 Posted by: West of England Andy | May 7 2023 21:02 utc | 106 Questions about Wagner casualties in Bakhmut were asked yesterday Posted by: sln2002 | May 7 2023 21:03 utc | 107 Prigozhin and Kadirov are powerful Warlords and as always there is a certain amount of rivalry, competition and/or jealousy between such charismatic figures. As long as they don’t start fighting each other (like in some other war torn countries) things should remain at a theatrics level…. Posted by: Adam Troy | May 7 2023 21:04 utc | 108 @42, Perimetr, man, things must be pretty bad in Europe for someone to solicit porn here. Posted by: kupkee | May 7 2023 21:05 utc | 109 Tom_Q_Collins @ 96 Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 7 2023 21:06 utc | 110 Aaagh! This keeps happening, the MoA software loses my username, my email and then the body of my comment and then it still decides to make a post. Posted by: West of England Andy | May 7 2023 21:06 utc | 111 Posted by: Dacian | May 7 2023 17:31 utc | 45 Fake: The Armed Forces of Ukraine Shot Down The Russian Hypersonic Missile “Kinzhal” Posted by: HERMIUS | May 7 2023 21:16 utc | 113 @ Taras 77 | May 7 2023 17:53 utc | 52 Posted by: whirlX | May 7 2023 21:17 utc | 114 The only chance that will give hope for continued financing/deliveries of weapons is a global tragedy/catastrophe on the territory of Ukraine, which can be organized even by “unknowns”, but blamed on the Russian Federation. Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 7 2023 21:20 utc | 115 Regarding the Ukrainian “Offensive” coming up. With no other information other than reading every TG post I can find about the crazy amount of Jaw-jacking about said “offensive”, my wild speculation is that they will attack in the Uhgledar (sp?) direction, but will also try an amphib landing in Sevastopol to try to wipe out the bases there and the NATO air assets will come to help them. If they can land one of the “grain deal” ships in the harbor and sink it, it may block the Russian navy. They might even start with a nuclear false flag at ZNPP or even Energodar with their “dirty bomb” so as to set off the supposed radiation detectors installed by the USA a bit ago. Russia command and control would have multiple disasters to respond to all at once. Not saying it has a remote chance, Russia is very capable, but it would make for an interesting week, say in June, when the weather may be nicer. They need the media hype, it’s almost all they have been winning lately save a few terrorist bombings. All this mowing the lawn with 50-60 troops and a half dozen technicals getting shelled to oblivion all around the front are feints imo. Posted by: Fudup | May 7 2023 21:26 utc | 116 ” apologies for the wild speculation, but I felt the subject should be broached. Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 7 2023 21:26 utc | 117 re: kupkee | May 7 2023 21:05 utc | 109 Posted by: Perimetr | May 7 2023 21:30 utc | 118 Posted by: Fudup | May 7 2023 21:26 utc | 116 Posted by: unimperator | May 7 2023 21:36 utc | 119 Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 7 2023 21:06 utc | 110 Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 7 2023 21:39 utc | 120 “True patriots would actually like to see their side win, whereas the controlled patriots just want the profits to keep rolling in. You will never see the fake patriots’ lives put on the line. Meanwhile, actual patriots in Russia are being assassinated left and right all under the watchful eye of the FSB.” Posted by: Charlotte Ruse | May 7 2023 21:43 utc | 121 If people aren’t checking the TG channels today they should, Russia is hitting hard all along the front, and moving harder than ever in Artemovsk, plus this last week of Prigozhin hyper focus has seen consistent heavy missile strikes all over behind the AFU lines. Given months of talk of the big Ukrainian offensive either Russia is trying hard to bust that up or we are witnessing the softening up barrage before the big Russian offensive, something everyone seems to have written off. Whatever, there’s a notable uptick in energy on the RF side. I sense a movement in the Force. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 7 2023 21:44 utc | 122 Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 7 2023 20:37 utc | 96 Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 7 2023 21:44 utc | 123 If the West had a competent drone program it would be scary. But even though it’s been obvious for a decade that unmanned vehicles are superior to manned ones..(quickly..provided secure commschannel Achilles heel, no pilot loss so the highly trained dudes don’t die and no G force problems amo st many others)..Maerica in her deep intelligence opted for the giant military industrial ‘scam the public’ turkey the F35. Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 7 2023 21:46 utc | 124 Perimetr, ok, sorry. I still stand by my statement though. “Uncle Ira isn’t Uncle Ira”. Kupke. Yeah, I know porn/prostitution is ubiquitous. I know someone who had a Ukrainian mail order bride. Posted by: Immaculate deception | May 7 2023 21:47 utc | 125 @unimperator | May 7 2023 21:36 utc | 119
NATO wants Russia to go nuclear. Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 7 2023 21:48 utc | 126 Conquering a people and military with high esprit de corps is a recipe for disaster and guarantees a long insurgency. Posted by: Johnycomelately | May 7 2023 21:48 utc | 127 Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 7 2023 21:06 utc | 110 Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 7 2023 21:50 utc | 128 63, 81, 84, and 120 are me (and this post). Anything else you see and anything you see today from here out is not. I’m done posting. Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 7 2023 21:51 utc | 129 The good thing in this Patriot vs. Kinzhal debacle (categorically fake news) is that it may result in euronato buying and relying more on useless Patriot systems. Pretty much similar as the hyper super duper fifth gen F-35 “Flying turkey” program which has no parallels in the Milkyway galaxy. Whole Nato will now have to life with it well past 2050. Posted by: unimperator | May 7 2023 22:13 utc | 130 @Petri Krohn | May 7 2023 21:48 utc | 126
Hope you’re wrong. I visited London once. Confusing layout, but back then very pleasant (and less stabby). Posted by: Boris Badenov | May 7 2023 22:13 utc | 131 Unimperator, 119 Posted by: Fudup | May 7 2023 22:20 utc | 132 Posted by: Johnycomelately | May 7 2023 21:48 utc | 127 Posted by: Cortes | May 7 2023 22:21 utc | 133 Why does NATO want Russia to go nuclear? I see that also, but why? Is that not dangerous, even for western elites? Posted by: srbin | May 7 2023 22:29 utc | 134 There is a conflict between, at least, 2 systematic visions of the World: Posted by: Lalita | May 7 2023 22:29 utc | 135 Prigozhin has motivated the destruction of Chasov Yar it seems. And this: The cynic in me thinks this rear supply extinguishment might have been carried out a month or two ago and repeated every few days. The same Uke army destruction rate would likely have been achieved and the clearance of Artyomovsk would have proceeded at lower Russian lives lost. So perhaps the western supply is finally being throttled down in the east. Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 7 2023 22:32 utc | 136 I wonder how so much BS post can find their way her into the tread while I never see my responses and post, A reason why don’t post, just trying this one Posted by: Alfapanda | May 7 2023 22:35 utc | 137 Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 7 2023 15:16 utc | 18
This has always been my understanding, the group started in the Donbass 2014 as a plausibly deniable arm of RF mil intervention in the UA civil war led by ‘former’ Spetsnaz GRU officer ‘Wagner’ and remains led by ‘former’ Spetsnaz GRU officer … is Lotus still the military commander? Posted by: Zeug Gezeugt | May 7 2023 22:36 utc | 138 young #91
Yes, well, its a long time between second comings as history tells us. Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 7 2023 22:40 utc | 139 People who get agitated by Prighozin’s theatrics (thanks Arch Bungle) are likely the same people who watch WWE and think it is real. Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 7 2023 22:48 utc | 140 Posted by: young @ 91 Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 7 2023 23:01 utc | 141 @vec 101 Posted by: NJH | May 7 2023 23:09 utc | 142
I reposted the correct link at #45. Posted by: Dacian | May 7 2023 23:10 utc | 143 Things seem to blow up bigger with after explosions this last month, more accurate hits, more valuable targets, maybe just more and bigger piles of western munitions, a more target rich environment? Maybe the new satellites the RF launched couple months back? Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 7 2023 23:13 utc | 144 uncle tungsten @ 136
They didn’t have the missile inventory, they need to keep stocks up to defend pre SMO Russian territory, ward off a genuine NATO/USA attack from the Baltic Sea, Poland, and from the USA in the Pacific. Looks like they got their stocks back up and I assume a steady supply at a higher rate now. Put some fear in NATO before going on the offensive would be a good idea. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 7 2023 23:28 utc | 145 Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 7 2023 21:44 utc | 122 Posted by: Milites | May 7 2023 23:47 utc | 146 Doctor Eleven #124 Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 7 2023 23:52 utc | 147 Posted by: Zeug Gezeugt | May 7 2023 22:36 utc | 138
Mercouris said something to this effect (and more) based on an email he claimed to have received from an ‘anonymous person in the know’. While it could all be fantasy it sounded very plausible: the upshot was basically that Wagner was formed as a public-private enterprise between two GRU divisions and an unnamed public partner. Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 7 2023 23:54 utc | 148 Russia needs to have the death penalty for terrorists and saboteurs. Being soft on terrorists only encourages them. Posted by: MiniMo | May 7 2023 23:55 utc | 149 Can we just leave this issue of Pregorzhin now? There is no conspiracy, maskirova or whatever. He has a tendency to shoot his mouth off and has acquired some serious narcissistic tendencies. The RF Military or Government do not play these kind of stupid gaines. He is being allowed to complete the liberation of Bakhmut. After that, I doubt we will hear much from him because he is a serious liability to the RF Government and Military. At a time when RF is fighting the entire collective West, nay sayers like Pregorzhin have no place on the battlefield. Stability, Unity and solidarity of purpose is what is required. Posted by: Jo Dominich | May 7 2023 23:58 utc | 150 Last years 1 million man army summer offensive took place in the autumn with around 30k participants. Posted by: Oh | May 8 2023 0:06 utc | 151 LightYearsFromHome #145
I am fairly confident that Russia has an immense inventory. They likely planned for the SMO stage a year before they actioned it. I can see that for the past couple of decades Russia has been frenetic in developing missile weapons advantage over the westies and finally achieved that stage. BUT as for conventional weapons like artillery and short range mobile systems, drone attack systems they are copiously endowed. Chassov Yar is well within range of the Russian firing positions. PLUS the Russians savagely police their no fly zone on the battle front that has crushed the Uke large war planes. The Russians have an airforce too! Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 8 2023 0:09 utc | 152 Can we just leave this issue of Pregorzhin now? There is no conspiracy, maskirova or whatever. He has a tendency to shoot his mouth off and has acquired some serious narcissistic tendencies. The RF Military or Government do not play these kind of stupid gaines. He is being allowed to complete the liberation of Bakhmut. After that, I doubt we will hear much from him because he is a serious liability to the RF Government and Military. At a time when RF is fighting the entire collective West, nay sayers like Pregorzhin have no place on the battlefield. Stability, Unity and solidarity of purpose is what is required. Posted by: Wokechoke | May 8 2023 0:21 utc | 153 Big things happening. Slavyangrad is reporting the largest missile strike of the entire SMO taking place tonight in central Ukraine. NASA Lance Firms showing the center of the country ablaze. Open Source Intelligence Monitor is reporting destruction of the Pidyomnyy Mist Bridge, completely isolating Ukrainian Bessarabia from Odesa. Faytuks is reporting the largest drone attack of the war concentrated against Kiev. Intel Slava is reporting a major missile attack against Odesa tonight. Spiriter is reporting unusual aerial phenomena observable from Melitipol. TASS and RIA are reporting major movements in Bahkmut. Black Sea Ship Traffic Map is showing one Turkish vessel hightailing it out of Odesa. I cannot find any accurate information for Black Sea flights at the moment. Whatever this is, it is substantively different from anything that has happened since the first month of the SMO. Posted by: Hitch | May 8 2023 0:21 utc | 154 Big attack ongoing, Kiev air defence seems to be working ok, taking down drones. Posted by: Oh | May 8 2023 0:28 utc | 155 TASS reports, “Kiev’s counteroffensive to ‘pave the way’ for dialogue with Russia — WSJ”: ‘The Wall Street Journal points out that this “shift in Western thinking” is occurring amid Western countries’ serious concern that they won’t be able to maintain the necessary level of military aid to Ukraine in the future.’
Contradictions abound within NATO’s posture as serious doubts are clearly apparent. However, China isn’t going to bailout NATO as the Bloc must deal with Russia’s 2021 security proposals it’s ignored, belittled or dismissed to-date. Team Biden will continue to stonewall and intone its As long as it takes mantra, but some EU NATO members have a better grip on reality. One critically important aspect Team Biden never seemed to grasp is the extreme difficulty in amassing forces for an offensive without them being decimated before they can be committed to battle. The time to have done that was during Winter when the skies were overcast most of the time and thus blinded Russian satellites. And of course, that meant all available means needed to be shipped to Ukraine in November/December, not delayed until March/April. It would be much better for Ukraine to try and keep the FEBA stable while building and training up its forces so they can be deployed under the cover of weather for an offensive this Winter. But even then, without AD and CAS, any offensive is going to need a great deal of luck to attain its objective. And of course, Russia might change the game with its own offensive later this Spring or Summer. @ Posted by: Hitch | May 8 2023 0:21 utc | 154 Posted by: BroncoBilly | May 8 2023 0:35 utc | 157 Caveat emptor re my taking down drones comment, it maybe they are used to dry up missile availability so the cruise stuff gets through. Posted by: Oh | May 8 2023 0:35 utc | 158 @126 Petri Krohn Posted by: schmoe | May 8 2023 0:35 utc | 159 Hitch | May 8 2023 0:21 utc | 154– Russia can’t start full offensive right now because of: Posted by: asehi | May 8 2023 0:46 utc | 161 HEADLINES Posted by: HERMIUS | May 8 2023 0:47 utc | 162 Some videos for today. Posted by: Nate | May 8 2023 0:58 utc | 163 Russia says high waters threaten dam near Ukrainian nuclear plant, TASS reports Posted by: Arrnon | May 8 2023 1:25 utc | 164 “ Zarkovic confirms that after visiting Energodar, Crimea and a few other cities in the past week that the Russian lines of defense are seriously jaw-dropping, “heavyweight” defense lines even in Crimea. He dares say without fear of contradiction that these are the strongest and most powerful defense lines on Earth that not one single army in the world can penetrate at this point in time.” Posted by: Trubind1 | May 8 2023 1:29 utc | 165 Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 7 2023 18:07 utc | 58
It used to be commonly accepted that vaccinations only start being effective at the age of 2. Before that the immune system isn’t functioning fully yet and won’t create immunity. I only got them starting from 2 years old. And way less then is common today. Medical professionals have occasionally admitted that jabs given in the first 2 years are to condition the parents to vaccinate their child. And for profit I would add. Posted by: GoverntheMente | May 8 2023 1:29 utc | 166 Black Sea Ship Traffic Map is showing one Turkish vessel hightailing it out of Odesa. Posted by: MiniMo | May 8 2023 1:35 utc | 167 143. Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 8 2023 1:37 utc | 168 It used to be commonly accepted that vaccinations only start being effective at the age of 2. Posted by: MiniMo | May 8 2023 1:39 utc | 169 Hitch | May 8 2023 1:42 utc | 171– “Gotcha. And the asshole is even linking to your Substack too. We need a better system here.” Posted by: Surferket | May 8 2023 2:09 utc | 171 “Latter means, Russia needs human resources from neighbor countries to withstand against long term threat from China.” Posted by: Surferket | May 8 2023 2:17 utc | 172 I have seen no discussion of the Patriot missile shooting down the Khinzal. Is this BS? Seems obvious but quite silence. Posted by: Battenmountain | May 8 2023 3:00 utc | 173
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/45041
Posted by: Down South | May 8 2023 3:11 utc | 174 Posted by: HERMIUS | May 7 2023 19:52 utc | 78 Posted by: Down South | May 8 2023 3:12 utc | 175
Posted by: Down South | May 8 2023 3:22 utc | 176 @175 a pic of the wreckage I saw looked unconvincing to me and the western coverage is the definition of dubious. although they valiantly report what Ukraine alleges even though they can’t verify it, which isn’t exactly news it’s just gossip. Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 8 2023 3:49 utc | 177
Posted by: Down South | May 8 2023 4:11 utc | 178 I have seen no discussion of the Patriot missile shooting down the Khinzal. Is this BS? Seems obvious but quite silence. Posted by: Jmaas | May 8 2023 5:04 utc | 179 Posted by: karlof1 | May 8 2023 0:32 utc | 156 Posted by: Milites | May 8 2023 6:06 utc | 180 Tom_Q_Collins | May 7 2023 21:51 utc | 129 Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 8 2023 6:07 utc | 181 181 read the thread ukraine has denied it ever happened. seems only western media is going with the tripe. Posted by: hankster | May 8 2023 6:08 utc | 182 Posted by: barstool | May 7 2023 20:53 utc | 100 Posted by: Milites | May 8 2023 6:14 utc | 183
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17663 Posted by: Down South | May 8 2023 6:16 utc | 184
Posted by: Down South | May 8 2023 6:18 utc | 185 I have seen no discussion of the Patriot missile shooting down the Khinzal. Is this BS? Seems obvious but quite silence. Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 8 2023 6:18 utc | 186
Posted by: Down South | May 8 2023 6:19 utc | 187 Posted by: Dacian | May 7 2023 23:10 utc | 143 Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 8 2023 6:21 utc | 188 Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 8 2023 6:18 utc | 188 Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 8 2023 6:28 utc | 189 While the SloMO continues at a snail’s pace, drama queens Prigozhin and Lira provide some entertainment on the sidelines. With the Russians having dug in so extensively in especially Zaporizhzhia it doesn’t look like the Russians want to push on much further. All is not doom and gloom however as the SloMO does have some redeeming features, its at least beginning to look like Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Terminator for one. Posted by: gT | May 8 2023 6:41 utc | 190 “A few hours earlier, the head of Ukrainian intelligence reported a missile shortage in Russia. Posted by: unimperator | May 8 2023 6:43 utc | 191 Re downed Kinzhal: Posted by: kspr | May 8 2023 6:46 utc | 192 @ 183 peter au.. Posted by: james | May 8 2023 6:50 utc | 193
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17664 Posted by: Down South | May 8 2023 6:51 utc | 194
It wasn’t even used that night Posted by: shadowbanned | May 8 2023 6:52 utc | 195
Posted by: Down South | May 8 2023 6:53 utc | 196 Posted by: karlof1 | May 8 2023 0:41 utc | 160 Posted by: Membrum Virile | May 8 2023 6:53 utc | 197 Posted by: Down South | May 8 2023 6:51 utc | 196
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/61329 Posted by: Down South | May 8 2023 6:54 utc | 198 Peter AU1 @ 183 Posted by: Mark2 | May 8 2023 6:55 utc | 199 gT | May 8 2023 6:41 utc | 192 Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 8 2023 7:01 utc | 200 |
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