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May 1, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-104
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict. The current open thread for other issues is here. Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Comments
i wnder if the lowly folks stuck in ukraine see any connection with the bombs today and the attack the other day on the oil tank in russia? probably they remain in the dark about these things.. Posted by: james | May 1 2023 17:16 utc | 1 At what point does the Battle for Bahkmut become the Battle for Chasiv Yar? Posted by: BroncoBilly | May 1 2023 17:24 utc | 2 @james Posted by: Chris | May 1 2023 17:27 utc | 3 In Kiev, Major General Volodymyr Oleinik, who commanded the territorial defense units, was shot dead near his home.” Posted by: Exile | May 1 2023 17:28 utc | 4 If one side controls the narrative then all the the lowly will hear are the sonic boom of their destruction. In parsing that out in my head, not sure that can actually happen. Oh well, Happy May Day Posted by: Tmike | May 1 2023 17:29 utc | 5
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17553 Posted by: Down South | May 1 2023 17:32 utc | 6
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17556 Posted by: Down South | May 1 2023 17:34 utc | 7
Posted by: Down South | May 1 2023 17:37 utc | 8 Kayaks in battle? Hmm….much prefer the Canadian Navy’s up armoured Dorys. They are stealthy when fully loaded. With two occupants and all their gear they ride low on the water line, they also have anti wave inhibitors, in the event of a capsize……. Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 1 2023 17:39 utc | 9 Powerful blast of tonight at pavlograd: Posted by: Zet | May 1 2023 18:03 utc | 10 OT: May 1st in Paris: https://t.me/Slavyangrad/44126 Posted by: Apollyon | May 1 2023 18:14 utc | 11 The leader of the free world. Everything under control: https://twitter.com/i/status/1652368461975134208 Posted by: Apollyon | May 1 2023 18:16 utc | 12 Ukrainian counteroffensive over before it starts? Posted by: PJB | May 1 2023 18:23 utc | 13 https://t.me/llordofwar/130274
https://t.me/llordofwar/130332
Posted by: anon2020 | May 1 2023 18:23 utc | 14 Exile @ 4 Posted by: young | May 1 2023 18:26 utc | 15 I’m sure the barrage that hit yesterday will put a dent in some of those Nazis counter offensive plans. Waiting to see if there will be more today. Going to be interesting to see if the counter offensive produces any results, falls flat on its face or doesn’t happen at all because you know, all talk no action. You know Russia is just sitting there taunting them, “Bring it bitch!!” My guess it doesn’t happen and the list of excuses will be miles long. Posted by: Watzov | May 1 2023 18:29 utc | 16 Posted by: james | May 1 2023 17:16 utc | 1 Posted by: Membrum Virile | May 1 2023 18:44 utc | 17 https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/04/30/last-offensive-of-kiev-regime/ Posted by: Trubind1 | May 1 2023 18:48 utc | 18 I saw yesterday that some of the barflies claimed there will be 20-25 mill ukrainians after the war. I found this list in the UA newspaper ZN.UA. They claim that there are 10 mill. pensioners in Ukraine. That means that there will only be 10 mill of younger age. Posted by: Paul from Norway | May 1 2023 18:55 utc | 19 Very good: Posted by: Mikkael | May 1 2023 19:00 utc | 20 @ 3 chris.. thanks.. that is most likely.. i tend to be reactive myself, but i don’t think russian command is.. Posted by: james | May 1 2023 19:01 utc | 21 @Exile & young Posted by: Apollyon | May 1 2023 19:02 utc | 22
I absolutely hate, loathe, despise, and rebuke the strategic Culture Foundation and I utterly disagree with this analysis. There can be no point to Ukraine telegraphing their upcoming offensive in such a puzzling way unless they have no intention of going through with it. The offensive-talk is meant for exclusively for Western media consumption; it’s grift, plain and simple. “Send us your money, send us your weapons, we have this offensive going on, you know.” It is a highly cynical ploy. Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | May 1 2023 19:02 utc | 23 Posted by: Paul from Norway | May 1 2023 18:55 utc | 19 Posted by: Mike R | May 1 2023 19:05 utc | 24 Some articles of interest: Posted by: HeyHeyHey | May 1 2023 19:11 utc | 25 It looks like the Russians are dipping into their missile supplies to disrupt the Ukrainian spring offensive. Posted by: GoFast | May 1 2023 19:12 utc | 26 Exile @ 4 Posted by: Thor Odinson | May 1 2023 19:15 utc | 27 “In Kiev, Major General Volodymyr Oleinik, who commanded the territorial defense units, was shot dead near his home.” Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 1 2023 19:27 utc | 28 Pavlograd is a sevastopol response, the Russians know more than they do. Posted by: la bouteille | May 1 2023 19:28 utc | 29 RE: Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | May 1 2023 19:02 utc | “Ukraine has no army and no air defense. Ukrainian soldiers and NATO mercs will be massacred if the attack. It’s never going to happen.” Posted by: Trubind1 | May 1 2023 19:32 utc | 30 @JustAMaverick Posted by: Apollyon | May 1 2023 19:40 utc | 31 Surprisingly, or not, nobody in the West considers what Ukraine will do after it extends its fantasized salient to, say, the Sea of Azov. Surrounded on both sides, it will be subject to FAB, artillery and missiles. A supply line, with actual supplies, would be needed to support it. The only possible way to maintain such a salient would be to widen it to the point where it could be protected. Does Ukraine have the resources to do that? No air cover, working against layered defense lines using a hodgepodge of heavy armor that, once damaged, will be abandoned on the spot, poorly trained conscripts, and a tenuous supply line. Sounds like a recipe for total destruction of an army. Posted by: Mike R | May 1 2023 19:49 utc | 32 i’m fairly certain the “lowly folks stuck in ukraine” heard thru the grapevine that putin said Crimea was a red line. (hey that rhymes) Posted by: annie | May 1 2023 20:02 utc | 33 Posted by: Mike R | May 1 2023 19:49 utc | 32 Posted by: unimperator | May 1 2023 20:23 utc | 34 Posted by: la bouteille | May 1 2023 19:28 utc | 29 Posted by: Membrum Virile | May 1 2023 20:43 utc | 35 Ukraine as an entity has been (brain) dead for long and under complete control of the Pentagram and White house. Neo-nazi thugs run the entire country, even the president has no control whatsoever. Posted by: unimperator | May 1 2023 20:55 utc | 36 Posted by: Membrum Febrile | May 1 2023 20:43 utc | 35 Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 1 2023 20:57 utc | 37 What would happen if Ukraine makes nuclear bomb? Posted by: Srbin | May 1 2023 21:17 utc | 38 @ Mikkael | May 1 2023 19:00 utc | 20 Posted by: John Kennard | May 1 2023 21:22 utc | 39 some “combatant commander/s” is/are on their way over from Washington DC on board BOXER40 C40/B/C…. currently 34k over sw England heading @ 097° Posted by: AleaJactaEst | May 1 2023 21:27 utc | 40 Membrum Virile, Ukraine didn’t get raped in Crimea. Ukraine got raped by the coup and the people in Crimea didn’t want the new government, they wanted to be part of Russia again, still do. They are who matter here, the people of Crimea. even before the coup who didn’t know Ukraine was one of the most if not the most corrupt countries on the continent? they were done, you can’t hold them captive. Who’s the rapist? Posted by: annie | May 1 2023 21:28 utc | 41 Posted by: John Kennard | May 1 2023 21:22 utc | 39 Posted by: Tim | May 1 2023 21:31 utc | 42 @Srbin, #38, my guess would be that they would have to respond with a nuclear strike on whomever they can determine did attack them with a nuke. Russia would have little choice but to respond with nukes. Posted by: Firefly | May 1 2023 21:34 utc | 43 The war in Ukraine and the sanctions attached to same have turned the United States into the BRICS alliance’s greatest recruiter. I’m sure Bernard could speak more incisively on this issue than I have: Posted by: Bruce O'Hara | May 1 2023 21:37 utc | 44 @Posted by: Membrum Virile | May 1 2023 20:43 utc | 35 Posted by: FVK | May 1 2023 21:44 utc | 45 https://www.semafor.com/article/04/30/2023/the-murdochs-ukraine-connection Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 1 2023 21:53 utc | 46 Posted by: Membrum Virile | May 1 2023 20:43 utc | 35 Posted by: Mike R | May 1 2023 21:55 utc | 47 Darwin awards: Posted by: Figleaf23 | May 1 2023 21:56 utc | 48 GoFast | May 1 2023 19:12 utc | 26 Posted by: Melaleuca | May 1 2023 22:08 utc | 49 The real news is Turkey’s election, if Erdogan falls the Montreux treaty will be bypassed and the newly elected government will allow Western ships to sail through the Bosphorus. Posted by: Johnycomelately | May 1 2023 22:12 utc | 50 Alexander Dugin’s words on Yevgeny Prigozhin and PMC Wagner (with a link to their motion picture) Posted by: Luís Borges | May 1 2023 22:13 utc | 51 Not to mention blocking Russian ships from going to Syria. This will step up the conflict 10 fold. Posted by: Johnycomelately | May 1 2023 22:14 utc | 52 https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2023/04/28/us-corporations-ukraine-oil-gas/ Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 1 2023 22:16 utc | 53 Prigozhin’s bluster and persistence reminds me of Patton’s during WW2 as he constantly pleaded for 3rd Army to be the spear tip to the point of insubordination. One wonders how long he would’ve lasted on either side of the Russian Front, or if he’d been able to reach the rank of general on either side. Here’s a home security camera or similar, catching an explosion from the latest “arrivals”. Posted by: Melaleuca | May 1 2023 22:28 utc | 55 Apollyon | May 1 2023 19:02 utc | 22 Posted by: Melaleuca | May 1 2023 22:37 utc | 56 Tom_Q_Collins | May 1 2023 22:16 utc | 53 Posted by: Melaleuca | May 1 2023 22:42 utc | 57 @Membrum Virile 35 Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | May 1 2023 22:48 utc | 58 Johnycomelately | May 1 2023 22:14 utc | 52 Posted by: Melaleuca | May 1 2023 22:49 utc | 59 @Melaleuca 59 Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | May 1 2023 22:54 utc | 60
Prigozhin only appears to be criticizing the Russian military “bureaucracy” (without giving names). In essence, he states: “Look, my boys, although critically under-supplied and outnumbered, have been kicking ass of the entire NATO establishment. Slowly but surely.” And then, when he says that it can’t go on forever and he is about to quit, he is essentially urging his rivals to be more active, before it’s too late. It’s most likely a trap. Posted by: Nomad | May 1 2023 23:07 utc | 61 james @ 1 Posted by: oldhippie | May 1 2023 23:10 utc | 62 One cannot, on the one hand, condone an uprising or revolution in Kiev in 2014, whilst on the other hand codemn an uprising or revolution in Crimea. Posted by: HERMIUS | May 1 2023 23:15 utc | 63 Biswapriya Purkayast | May 1 2023 22:54 utc | 60 Posted by: Melaleuca | May 1 2023 23:18 utc | 64 “How unsportsmanlike of Ukrainians to refuse to submit to raping.” Posted by: Cerena | May 1 2023 23:19 utc | 65 Thanks for rocking my stats, Barflies: The Kagan/“Fuck the EU” Nuland family business is manufacturing consent for continual war: One wonders how long he would’ve lasted on either side of the Russian Front, or if he’d been able to reach the rank of general on either side. Posted by: K | May 1 2023 23:28 utc | 67 Surprisingly, or not, nobody in the West considers what Ukraine will do after it extends its fantasized salient to, say, the Sea of Azov. Surrounded on both sides, it will be subject to FAB, artillery and missiles. A supply line, with actual supplies, would be needed to support it. The only possible way to maintain such a salient would be to widen it to the point where it could be protected. Does Ukraine have the resources to do that? No air cover, working against layered defense lines using a hodgepodge of heavy armor that, once damaged, will be abandoned on the spot, poorly trained conscripts, and a tenuous supply line. Sounds like a recipe for total destruction of an army. The RF celebrated an important anniversary with the missile attack on April 30. Posted by: Richard Whitney | May 1 2023 23:47 utc | 69
Which would still have been a strategic defeat for Russia because it would have ensured a permanently hostile and irreversibly separated from the Russian world Ukraine, and one that kept its large population size too. Right in their strategic underbelly. Posted by: shadowbanned | May 1 2023 23:53 utc | 70 I think we do not help by letting the US and MSM narrative prevail, if only by error of omission, too lazy to bother correcting it. It all IS a war of propaganda and letting public believe it truly IS ‘Russian aggression against Ukraine’ just helps continue the slaughter and the madness. donbas people as well as lughansk, crimea, zaphiskoya people have natural right to self determination like the kurds, the chinese on formosa, kosovars, bosnians, croats,purple thumb afghans and sunni iraqis, to name a few of usistan’s more recent gambits. Posted by: paddy | May 2 2023 0:08 utc | 72 Some videos for today. Posted by: Nate | May 2 2023 0:25 utc | 73 From the Dugin piece linked earlier https://www.thepostil.com/the-wagner-factor-and-the-fairness-principle/ Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 2 2023 0:29 utc | 74 K | May 1 2023 23:28 utc | 67– abrogard | May 1 2023 23:54 utc | 71 Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 2 2023 0:39 utc | 76 Peter AU1 | May 2 2023 0:29 utc | 74– karlof1 | May 2 2023 0:38 utc | 75 Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 2 2023 1:01 utc | 78 Prigozhin is something. Nobody can be quite sure what, and I suspect that’s the point. There’s a lot of Russian humor in the stuff he says: dry, dark and sarcastic. But in the end, he’s the pitch man not the brains behind the operation. He’s almost certainly not the funding either. He’s a one man maskirovka show, which isn’t to say he never tells the truth. Just that telling the truth is not necessarily part of his job description. Posted by: Lex | May 2 2023 1:10 utc | 79 Lex | May 2 2023 1:10 utc | 79 Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 2 2023 1:17 utc | 80 Karl, you posted your 77 as I was writing @78. I very much agree with what you wrote there. Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 2 2023 1:19 utc | 81 Looks like my estimate of Russian casualties matches the US military’s estimate. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65451487 Nothing like the predictive power of a correct thesis. CBC reporting two more Cdn. mercs killed in Ukraine. Say that makes five in total? Seems low given graph I’ve seen but now can’t locate. Anyone…..? Posted by: Drinky Crow | May 2 2023 1:41 utc | 83 Aaron Lee | May 2 2023 1:39 utc | 82 Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 2 2023 1:42 utc | 84 @83 Here they are. Looks like they were having fun. For a while. Posted by: dh | May 2 2023 1:46 utc | 85 @ james 1 Posted by: Giyane | May 2 2023 1:53 utc | 86 Best video of Pavolgrad explosion. Over 4:30 and still burning when stopped. Note at 47 and 50 sec there are two other impacts to the left of the main one, but no secondary explosion. Posted by: BroncoBilly | May 2 2023 2:07 utc | 87 The purpose of Prigozhin messaging…? Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 2 2023 2:12 utc | 88 It’s simple enough…Prigozhin is a Jewish actor on this largely Jewish stage… Posted by: Wokechoke | May 2 2023 2:26 utc | 89 Would Ukraine have sent a drone within 20 miles of Putin without the approval and probably participation of the US? Hard to believe. Earlier, 6 months back, the US wouldn’t even give Ukraine long-distance HIMARS. It just seems like this war is entering a new phase where all of western Russia is subject to attack. These attacks seem to be occurring more frequently. Posted by: Kellen Cramer | May 2 2023 2:29 utc | 90 @ Posted by: HeyHeyHey | May 1 2023 19:11 utc | 25 Posted by: Richard L | May 2 2023 2:47 utc | 91 Wokechoke | May 2 2023 2:26 utc | 89 Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 2 2023 2:48 utc | 92 Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 2 2023 2:48 utc | 92 Posted by: littlereddot | May 2 2023 3:00 utc | 93 Posted by: Kellen Cramer | May 2 2023 2:29 utc | 90 “received permission from Zelensky to conduct sabotage operations on Russian territory” Posted by: Response2 | May 2 2023 3:04 utc | 94 The elbow room that Prigozhin gets can’t be explained without reference to his ethnicity. Posted by: Wokechoke | May 2 2023 3:21 utc | 95 Kellen Cramer @ 90
Remember that there be Nazis there. Highly doubt that they need permission to do something ugly/dangerous. And this is why you don’t want wars to break out as you shift away from diplomatic action to totally unpredictable murderous action. Posted by: Seer | May 2 2023 3:37 utc | 96 Old Fat Guys making a Motorcycle Tour celebrating WWII defeat of Fascism starts . German Press reports Posted by: Exile | May 2 2023 3:42 utc | 97 The Ukies will struggle to attack toward Azov Sea if they are this vulnerable to their ammunition dumps and transit nodes being attacked by missiles and or bombs. The Brigadiers and Colonels involved in this assault corps of 40,000 men ought to be a little nervous. They are not going to be replaying the successful Croatian assault that drove out Serbs under German tutelage and training. Posted by: Wokechoke | May 2 2023 3:45 utc | 98 Re: Posted by: Johnycomelately | May 1 2023 22:12 utc | 50
This is why Russia is taking it slow in the SMO. Posted by: Julian | May 2 2023 3:45 utc | 99 @42 I’ve been thinking about it, and given the steady progress in bahkmut it seems unlikely they don’t have the ammo. Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 2 2023 3:46 utc | 100 |
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