Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 16, 2023
Ukraine – Air Defense Lessons (Updated)

Updated below

This is factual:

Patriot Missiles Won’t Save UkraineNational Interest – May 9, 2023

Patriot systems are limited to pinpoint defense of major assets and are designed to operate in tandem with air defenses engaging targets at higher and lower altitudes. Without these additions, Patriot will have too many threats to engage and the result will either be porous coverage that doesn’t protect its defended assets, or coverage that quickly subsides when Patriot runs out of interceptors.

Moreover, Patriot systems are themselves vulnerable. Operating a Patriot radar system gives away its location, making it an open target for Russian attacks. This means that Patriot is not a one-stop-shop for defending Ukraine’s military assets or its people.

Those facts were proven last night.

War Monitor @WarMonitors – 1:23 UTC · May 16, 2023

⚡️I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but after careful review of this video, it appears that the air defence battery (most likely patriot) tried to save itself, but failed. It most probably got toasted.
Embedded video


bigger

Those were expensive two minutes for the 'West':

Fennec_Radar @RadarFennec – 1:45 UTC · May 16, 2023

I counted 30 Patriot PAC-3 MSE launches here.
The FY2024 costs of these per missile is about $$5,275,000
That was $158,250,000 fired in about two minutes. And as we see, the battery or something else likely got blown up. So it failed in its mission.
Embedded video

This though is likely not true. Kinzhals are simply too fast to be hit by any of Ukraine's air defenses:

Defense of Ukraine @DefenceU – 6:40 UTC · May 16, 2023

Last night, russian terrorists attacked Ukraine with:
– 6 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
– 9 Kalibr missiles
– 3 ground-launched missiles
– drones

ALL TARGETS SHOT DOWN.
Glory to the Ukrainian Air Forces!
We are grateful to our partner states for strengthening our air defense capabilities.

The casualty numbers in today's clobber report by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation may be a bit exaggerated but the general operational facts are usually true:

The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation launched a combined attack with long-range precision-guided air- and sea-based weapons against the AFU units, as well as depots of ammunition, weapons and military equipment supplied by Western countries.

The goal of the attack has been reached. All the assigned targets have been neutralised.

U.S.-manufactured Patriot surface-to-air missile system has been struck by Kinnzhal hypersonic glide vehicle in Kiev.

Fighter Aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces have shot down Su-24 and Su-25 aircraft of Ukrainian Air Force near Varvarovka and Krasnoarmeysk (Donetsk People's Republic).

Air defence forces intercepted seven Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles, three HARM anti-radar missiles and seven HIMARS multiple-launch rocket system projectiles.

Air defence facilities have shot down 22 unmanned aerial vehicles close to Ivanovka and Yevgenovka (Donetsk People's Republic), Topolyovka (Lugansk People's Republic), Inzhenernoye, Blagoveshchenka (Zaporpzhye region), and Krynki (Kherson region).

Ukraine does not have an integrated air defense that can attack all air targets at all levels. Russia though has such an integrated system of systems. It makes for a huge difference.

Updated – 16:30 UTC:

U.S. confirms hit on Patriot system:

Alex Marquardt @MarquardtA – 16:23 UTC · May 16, 2023

A Patriot system was likely damaged but not destroyed by a Russian missile barrage Monday night, a US official tells @NatashaBertrand. US is still assessing the damage which to determine whether the system needs to be pulled back entirely or be repaired by the Ukrainians.

Comments

@ Don Firineach | May 16 2023 23:19 utc | 326
Thanks to karlof1 and to you for highlighting that astonishing contrast in economic development, as described by Dunford. The chart embedded within the link is a keeper.

Posted by: natokraine | May 17 2023 11:59 utc | 501

oldhippie | May 17 2023 11:27 utc | 509
Much appreciate your insights.
Revelo You are a new name here. I don’t have much of a way with words. We watch this world…

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 17 2023 12:00 utc | 502

@ Derek Henry | May 16 2023 23:39 utc | 341
Thanks for clarifying. I agree with you and must’ve misinterpreted your earlier comment.

Posted by: natokraine | May 17 2023 12:02 utc | 503

Natasha said it so it must be true🤣🤣🤣. Saw the vid myself one patriot system or part of it is gone

Posted by: A.z | May 17 2023 12:02 utc | 504

Exile @ 488. Let us hope and pray that one of those ‘Russian Propagandists’ was not Gonzalo Lira.

Posted by: Jo Dominich | May 17 2023 12:03 utc | 505

According to our source, the Office of the President issued an order to the Armed Forces of Ukraine / GUR / SBU to conduct activity in all areas these days. Provocations are also important.
An information victory or a large-scale tragedy is urgently needed. This is important for the actualization of the Ukrainian issue on the sidelines of the G7 summit.

https://t.me/legitimniy/15368

Posted by: Down South | May 17 2023 12:08 utc | 506

Our source in the OP said that the Patriot system was damaged, 2 Patriot Launching Station -3 and a Patriot Radar Set were destroyed. 5 soldiers were killed, of which two were foreign instructors, all Western air defense systems are supplied to Ukraine with technical personnel who help our specialists use the anti-aircraft system.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17829

Posted by: Down South | May 17 2023 12:09 utc | 507

🇺🇦 “Six downed daggers” turned out to be six Ukrainian bloggers who published footage of the arrival of a real “Dagger” on the battery of the Patriot air defense system and the operation of other Western-made air defense systems.
Now they will have to answer for the loss of an expensive complex – everyone will face up to 8 years in prison. The harsh term is due to the scale of the damage associated with the blow to the image of the Patriot air defense system and the established lies of the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Someone has to answer for this.

https://t.me/intelslava/47800

Posted by: Down South | May 17 2023 12:10 utc | 508

The Union Carbide chemical leak in Bhopal was 1984. Dow Chemical takeover of Union Carbide was 1999…
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | May 17 2023 11:29 utc | 511

Do you know the game Three Card Monte?

Posted by: too scents | May 17 2023 12:14 utc | 509

Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 9:00 utc | 467
Swoosh, BOOM! I haven’t managed to keep up with the comment flood, is the consensus that the Kinzhals were targeting the Patriot radars, not the launchers units in the famous video, with the launchers targeted afterwards by other missiles, possibly Kalibr?
Posted by: Konami | May 17 2023 9:06 utc | 468
An approaching cloud of DU nanoparticles might focus otherwise war-fevered minds but they’ve all had plenty of time to speak out against DU being shipped to Ukraine, I doubt they’ll publicly object even now. Hell, I wouldn’t be surprised if things keep escalating and all Ukraine’s sponsors start shipping DU weapons if they have them.
Posted by: Exile | May 17 2023 10:22 utc | 488
In which case their apparent indifference at the supply of DU munitions is nothing of the sort, they want to poison and sicken the civilian population, especially ethnic Russians but probably all Ukrainians if they can swing it.
Posted by: Leser | May 17 2023 10:56 utc | 502
Agreed, great to have PavewayIV online!

Posted by: anon2020 | May 17 2023 12:19 utc | 510

I’d like verification too maybe someone here knows, I read that the trident is the historic symbol of UKR, the trident with the center fork replaced with a dagger is the Nazi symbol.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 17 2023 12:26 utc | 511

Posted by: horseguards | May 17 2023 0:54 utc | 368
I hope not. But I wonder what the purpose of the controlled leak Docs were, in which Ukr. was presented as hopeless and Russia as strong.
why would the USA want people to know that?
The russians are responding by playing the same game with the videos of Prigoshin pretending that russia is strugeling.
I think there are many reasons for this shows.
I will write my theory about this soon.
Both parites are decepting.

Posted by: HansJuergen | May 17 2023 12:30 utc | 512

Hope this isn’t duplicate.
https://t.me/intelslava/47787

🇷🇺🇺🇦❗Our sources in the Armed Forces of Ukraine shared the details of the destruction of the Patriot air defense system at Zhuliany airport .
In total, there were three launchers in the positional area.
One was destroyed, the second was seriously damaged, but survived. The third launcher escaped damage.
Two installations stood side by side, and the third – behind the building. The Russian “Dagger” flew between the installations, but closer to the first: there was a detonation of the fuel.
Pieces of the first installation and pieces of soil / asphalt riddled the second.
🔗 Rybar

Posted by: anon2020 | May 17 2023 12:31 utc | 513

Why? [Seymour Hersh’s story that Polish leaders are lobbying for peace negotations behind the curtains.]
1. Because I smell a rat.
2. Because the US and the UK and NATO would have to want the same thing (and they don’t. They want a forever war).
3. Because this group of so-called truce-makers have been saying exactly THE FKN OPPOSITE THING for 14 months, ie “fight fight fight”.
4. Because, Zelensky’s ego would resist it to the death. He thinks he’s Churchill, remember.
5. Because, if (theoretically) Zelensky stepped down, who TF would become any kind of replacement for him.
Posted by: The Dolphin | May 17 2023 11:05 utc | 505

Ignoring 1. which is healthy skepticism but not an argument. I agree that UK and USA very much want a forever-war, we’ve been seeing direct proof during this war. It’s also clear that Warsaw has to pay lip service to anything that comes from the horse’s mouth and political Poland is extremely US-friendly. Still, that does not mean that Poland is as eager as US, UK, Ukraine to fight the war. There are Polish soldiers dying in Ukraine and even the most pro-US government has to take domestic sentiments into account.
Your 3: yes, they don’t want negotiations because they want the war. We understand that.
Also your 4. and 5. are correct but as far as I understood Hersh’s statements, it’s about the (hidden) intentions of Polish leadership. That’s something different, and that’s why I think it makes a lot of sense.
Most people in this forum agree that the war is lost for Ukraine/USA/the West. If we happen to be right, shouldn’t we expect that some Western leaders also think like this, and are trying to adapt in some form?

Posted by: Konami | May 17 2023 12:47 utc | 514

anon2020 | May 17 2023 12:19 utc | 532
Second your thought on Paveway. Rus MoD, Russian president do not lie but do not say everything. They have said terminal velocity is mach 12. So we have to look at this figure and work out how that can be done.
Russia deployed its fist hyperspace missile in I think 1970. Prior to that it built closed cycle rocket engines. Bullshit from the Ukroidians and western media is laughable.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 17 2023 12:57 utc | 515

Apologies to the bar if this has already been posted.
Simplicius has a new post up regarding an oped from Foreign Affairs magazine about the future course of the war from Korfman and Lee.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/analysis-of-kofman-lees-urgent-new?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Posted by: Morongobill | May 17 2023 13:04 utc | 516

@julianmacfarlane | May 17 2023 11:10 utc | 506
Just an FYI, the expression 人の褌で相撲を取る (Hito no fundoshi de Sumō o toru) means more specifically to use someone else’s effort or possessions to advance yourself without incurring any cost or damage (not that the borrower is incapable of doing it themselves). As such, it is most applicable as a reference to the USA’s instigation of the war as a way of attempting to cripple Russia by sacrificing Ukraine and its people (and quite probably will soon be applicable to similar strategies in Taiwan).

Posted by: Brannagyn | May 17 2023 13:10 utc | 517

How Ukraine turned tables on Russia’s aerial assault

– CNN heading today
Well, they did that by meeting with Kinzhals…on the ground…:)

Posted by: ostro | May 17 2023 13:17 utc | 518

@ Down South
the Patriot Radar Set were destroyed. 5 soldiers were killed, of which two were foreign instructors, all Western air defense systems are supplied to Ukraine with technical personnel who help our specialists use the anti-aircraft system.
Thanks again for a valuable info from us who do not do TG.
If that is true, considering it is Ukraine channel – this is how it should be done. Get rid of qualified personnel.
It is a bit cynical to call those foreign instructors.
I doubt they sit next to Ukrainian operators and tell them which buttons to push.
I still do not get why they fired all the 32 missiles in a “wedding mode”. Some claim to empty the tubes so when launchers meet the incoming missile, explosion is minimized. I do not buy this.
One day we will know the truth.

Posted by: whirlX | May 17 2023 13:18 utc | 519

“yeah those numbers are a) bullshit b) if …”
“…if…”? Stupid Nazi faggot (NAFO) just admits it (don’t want to get its pronouns wrong) is making things up.
Hopium, copium, smoke that dopium. It helps when fantasizing about a nasty little chihuahua with broken teeth taking down a polar bear.
What morons you trolls are.

Posted by: William Gruff | May 17 2023 13:24 utc | 520

LightYearsFromHome May 17 2023 12:26 utc | 533
The symbol goes back to the Rurikid princes of Kievan Rus. Hope this helps…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus%27

Posted by: dh | May 17 2023 13:37 utc | 521

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/63425

According to Turkish sources, yesterday NATO held an emergency meeting on the state of air defense of the largest base hubs for Ukraine in Poland and Slovakia in light of the failure of the Patriot air defense system in the defense of Kyiv.
The situation is so acute that it is planned to take emergency measures in terms of strengthening air defense in these areas.

The claim is interesting but naturally arouses suspicion due to the protagonists supposedly expecting that Patriot would be effective against RF missile forces. This seems ridiculous but is probably true in the sense that the West is increasingly a kind of brainwashing cult where believing increasingly obvious lies is mandatory.

Posted by: anon2020 | May 17 2023 13:39 utc | 522

Katharina | May 16 2023 17:33 utc | 118-excellent! We’d like to recruit you to 77 Brigade soonest. In view of your apparent skills, you’ll be exempted from the training module where one learns to use fat wax crayons.

Posted by: Vrgates | May 17 2023 13:46 utc | 523

MFB #9:32 utc | 474
There is something very special about an African diplomat and a Chinese diplomat meeting with the white christian nazi leaders in Ukraine negotiating peace and how they should behave well in the interests of their people.
Times have changed but I doubt the Ukrainian team can adjust to this spectacle 😉

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 17 2023 10:13 utc | 485
It is very rich stuff, a feast of irony. I hope we will see a lot more of it going forward.

Posted by: Bemildred | May 17 2023 13:48 utc | 524

Re the latest Hersh posts:
Posted by: Konami | May 17 2023 12:47 utc | 536
Some supplementary reasons.
It would not surprise me if Hersh is being played … on this one (but not on Nordstream). The US would dearly love to discredit him, obfuscate him and his supporters.
Poland leadership has much bigger plans on west Ukraine than its current refugee annoyances. Google Image Search “Zhirinovsky Map Ukraine 2014” to see THE MOST LIKELY territorial end point for this whole RF-UKR-NATO bunfight. Now THAT is Poland’s most secret desire — and what’s more, THAT is in harmony with Russia’s own end goals and what McGregor and Ritter and Mearshiemer have all postulated as THE BEST security map beyond this war. Any premature surrender by Kiev would jeapodise a big “land win” for Poland and take away the zone Russia really wants east of the Dneiper plus Odessa plus whole Black Sea Coast to landlock Ukraine plus Kharkiv.
An aside: Did you know that USNATO had eyes on Crimea between 1991 and 2014 for its own naval base? THAT’S WHY Russia grabbed it before Poroshenko took Sebastopol back for Ukraine. Ah ha, the plot thickens! And THAT’S WHY US-UKRAINE has been so fixated on getting Crimea back.
Sorry, but nothing makes sense in the Hersh story. And, just because he’s Seymour Hersh, does not make his revelations any more feasible than the Realpolitik I have discussed.
Finally, Putin would not have a bar of Zelensky just “stepping down and dissappearing”. Putin wants Zelensky to be the one to sign the ultimate capitulation papers … OR ELSE Ukraine’s loss (ie, Russia’s win) has no democratic legitimacy within the Ukrainian constitution — think Hirohito and Japan 1945. Nothing short of Russia’s needs are gunna end this war. It’ll be 5000 tanks surrounding Kiev if that’s what it takes. No amount of nefarious behind- the-scenes wheedling by fucking Poland and its kooky mates will change the course of the SMO.

Posted by: The Dolphin | May 17 2023 14:05 utc | 525

The latest Simplicius piece analyzing some DC strategists is illuminating – highlights that the War Party is preparing its populations for a very long civil war in The Ukraine.
Note – by implication, the War Party’s real glorious Counter Offensive is therefore likely in late 2024 or even early 2025.
Warning Barflies this global war has hardly begun. Escalation upon escalation is the current path. The only way to stop escalation is for the War Party to run out of money.

Posted by: Exile | May 17 2023 14:16 utc | 526

Posted by: Le Catalan | May 17 2023 11:30 utc | 512
Ok poncho, blind ignorance cause schools, not your fault, forgive self.
You Nazi,
cause (you) on west berlin side of wall. Geography needs teaching.
Nuff said.

Posted by: Miguel | May 17 2023 14:17 utc | 527

@Exile | May 17 2023 14:16 utc | 548

Note – by implication, the War Party’s real glorious Counter Offensive is therefore likely in late 2024 or even early 2025.

I hope you are wrong about the timing. I cannot see how the Zelensky mafia can hold out beyond this year.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 17 2023 14:29 utc | 528

Actually, where is Zelensky?

Posted by: ostro | May 17 2023 14:31 utc | 529

@ostro | May 17 2023 14:31 utc | 551
He was in London 2 days ago. Don’t know whether Kiev is on his itinerary.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 17 2023 14:34 utc | 530

Posted by: whirlX | May 17 2023 13:18 utc | 541

I still do not get why they fired all the 32 missiles in a “wedding mode”.

It’s very, very simple.
Under conditions of impending death, when not expected, human beings go mad and revert to the survival instinct.
Usually it’s flight, or fight.
However, when you’re locked in a metal box on wheels your survival response is constrained to pulling the nearest kill-all lever.
And that is what happened.
They pulled the only lever they believed could save them …
Alternatively:
Perhaps Russian EW generated so many fake targets that the PATRIOT operators believed they needed to respond with a massive defense. Perhaps the Russians engineered that exact response by means of deception for the purpose of depleting the PATRIOT system.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 17 2023 14:38 utc | 531

Comedy hour!
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/63422

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦Yevgeny Prigozhin said that Sergei Shoigu “has been on the territory of Bakhmut for about a week at the headquarters of an assault unit in one of the Bakhmut basements.”

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/63431

⚔️🇺🇦A request from the editorial office of LIVE24 and the answer:
Good afternoon colleagues!
The journalists of the LIVE 24 edition would like to ask a question to Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Evgeny Viktorovich, earlier you said that the Russian Defense Minister is in Bakhmut. According to our data, Sergei Shoigu is in the workplace.
Can you clarify if your comment was a joke?
Yevgeny Prigozhin:
“Oh, you put me in an awkward position. Of course, I was referring to the future Minister of Defense. Remember the past, but live in the future.”

Posted by: anon2020 | May 17 2023 14:40 utc | 532

Posted by: The Dolphin | May 17 2023 14:05 utc | 547
[still on Hersh’s story about Polish intentions]
It would not surprise me if Hersh is being played … on this one (but not on Nordstream). The US would dearly love to discredit him, obfuscate him and his supporters.

Yes, that’s always an option. I got the impression he’s speaking for (= on behalf of) a particular US deep state faction.
I’m aware of Polish ambitions, what with Polish interregnum, Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth and this three seas fantasia. It’s also clear to me that Polish leaders are begging to take over Germany’s role as the Most Important Central European Lapdog ™.
Assuming you and I agree on all that: what if Warsaw finds the current war efforts to be detrimental to their plans? It’s all fine and dandy to sacrifice all Ukrainian able-bodied males, especially of Russian background, but what happens right now on the ground may kill all their dreams.
I am not saying that I know the future, or that Hersh is right. I don’t know. But I can certainly see a line where Poland (and the Baltics) trying to stop the war, at least for now, makes perfect sense.

An aside: Did you know that USNATO had eyes on Crimea between 1991 and 2014 for its own naval base? THAT’S WHY Russia grabbed it before Poroshenko took Sebastopol back for Ukraine.

Yes, there are the infamous adverts for jobs on a US naval base on Crimea from some time ago. This is another fact I cannot even mention in polite society: people will think I’m crazy even though there’s nothing secret about it. Thanks for discussion!

Posted by: Konami | May 17 2023 14:41 utc | 533

May 17 2023 13:18 utc | 541
all the complex shoddy usa wunderwaffe require contractors, bc the stuff was so cost overrunned with shoddy reliability the repairs could only be done by contractors bc the usa could not afford to develop repair procerdures…
the company paid life insurance, with no war clause, will likely be $10 million per civilian advisor…
in the serbian adventure of the 1990’s it was rumored to be $1million life insurance.
would you go to nazistan for a pay off for your family?

Posted by: paddy | May 17 2023 14:43 utc | 534

Posté par: Miguel | 17 mai 2023 14:17 UTC | 549
?
For me the trident is the attribute of Shiva…
I see no trace of it in the history of Hitler’s Nazism that it was taken over by Bandera from Slavic history…
Stigmatizing a person by his place of life and origin as you do is only a step in the right direction!
;))

Posted by: Le Catalan | May 17 2023 14:43 utc | 535

Posted by: Le Catalan | May 17 2023 14:43 utc | 557
Not sure why trident or religion.
History says-
But Germany citizens said same thing that they not Nazi. Not matter. but everybody is taught school “Germany” entire nation, were all Nazis, everybody.
My friend, I give you rabbit hole mazd, let fart in bar: research BIS

Posted by: Miguel | May 17 2023 14:52 utc | 536

I’m back. The most recent “test” post bearing my name is not me
Why does Sy Hersh have his comments turned off? In the original email I got he wrongly called the Czech Republic Czechoslovakia but corrected it later. He’s lost a step IMO. And probably being played.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 17 2023 14:53 utc | 537

The problem isn’t the trident, which has been used across the place for centuries. The problem is the dagger added to the trident, which is a Bandera / OUN / WWII era syncretic symbol.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | May 17 2023 14:55 utc | 538

Video on last night’s hit on the “large ammunition depot” in Nikolaev, also some sort of Nato equipment in hangars.
https://twitter.com/ArthurM40330824/status/1658725812189708288

Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 14:55 utc | 539

This is what saturated AD looks like, there are similar recent videos for Iron Dome AND David Sling in Israel. it looks like this System hat 30 Launch Tube…well 31 missiles and it is saturated.
IL hat 1.200 rocket to shoot down, The sling system seems to be exact for such a scenario (fast straight rocket in great numbers) and STILL got overwhelmed. Only thing that MIGHT can still prevail in such situations are networked CIWS Systems like the Goalkeeper CRAM or Phalanx.

Posted by: Kerwas | May 17 2023 14:58 utc | 540

A poster up the thread made an excellent suggestion to use a one-way hash of a secret pass phrase as a way to verify that a post is the authentic author.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 17 2023 10:59 utc | 503

Most sites eliminate that possibility by having a login for their comment section.

Posted by: Simon | May 17 2023 15:09 utc | 541

TQC @ 559
Hersh has been played a very long time. Basically offers himself to be played. His sources use him. They are still very good sources. You must read critically, always. What I just said should not diminish Hersh in your eyes. Just the way it is.

Posted by: oldhippie | May 17 2023 15:11 utc | 542

In a free world, everyone must be told what to think..,
THE PENTAGON’S NEW “PERCEPTION MANAGEMENT” OFFICE TO COUNTER DISINFORMATION
https://theintercept.com/2023/05/17/pentagon-perception-management-office/
//
…two decades later, “perception management” is once again becoming a central focus for the [U.S.] national security state. On March 1, 2022, the Pentagon established a new office with similar goals to the one once deemed too controversial to remain open. Very little has been made public about the effort, which The Intercept learned about through a review of budget documents and an internal memo we obtained. This iteration is called the Influence and Perception Management Office, or IPMO, according to the memo, which was produced by the office for an academic institution, and its responsibilities include overseeing and coordinating the various counter-disinformation efforts being conducted by the military, which can include the U.S.’s own propaganda abroad.
The memo contains a hypothetical exercise shedding light on the kind of work the IPMO does for the Pentagon:
“Let’s say DoD wants to influence Country A’s leaders to stop purchasing a weapon system from Country B (because we believe the continued purchasing might jeopardize DoD’s military advantage, in some way, if the U.S. ever had to engage in armed conflict with Country A.) Assuming the IPMO has worked to establish the desired behavior change, how might key influencers be identified that have sway over these leaders’ thought processes, beliefs, motives, reasoning, etc. (including ascertaining their typical modes and methods of communication)? Thereafter, assuming an influence strategy is developed, how might the DIE or IC determine if DoD’s influence activities are working (aside from waiting and watching hopefully that Country A eventually stops purchasing the weapons system in question from Country B)?”
The memo is signed by the IPMO’s acting director, James Holly. Holly previously served as director of U.S. Special Operations Command. He has an extensive intelligence background, having served as intelligence chief for an unnamed paramilitary in Iraq, according to publicly available biographies.
The Pentagon never publicly announced the office, which has not been reported on in any detail, but it was described in a budget document last year as a response to the shifting geopolitical environment away from counterterrorism and back toward great power competition, of the kind seen in the Cold War. Though the budget does not identify the office’s funding, procurement records suggest that it numbers in the multimillions.
The IPMO would “employ a broad scope of operational capabilities to address the current strategic environment of great power competition,” it states. toward“It will develop broad thematic influence guidance focused on key adversaries; promulgate competitive influence strategies focused on specific defense issues, which direct subordinate planning efforts for the conduct of influence-related activities; and fill existing gaps in policy, oversight, governance, and integration related to influence and perception management matters.”
//
BTW—Historically this is all about the Republicans.

Posted by: Arrnon | May 17 2023 15:16 utc | 543

Posté par: Clueless Joe | 17 mai 2023 14:55 UTC | 560
Thank you! I need a close-up to see this knife. I just enlarged it, you need a close-up to see that knife…
Posté par: Miguel | 17 mai 2023 14:52 UTC | 558
If it makes you feel any better I left the media over 30 years ago and have no doubt about the fascist leanings of the Ukrainian and techno-fascist leaders of Europe.
Thanks

Posted by: Le Catalan | May 17 2023 15:18 utc | 544

The US media tried to save the situation but had to lie about Russia’s missiles being all shot down. But we know that’s not true.
We can now conclude that their attempts were a huge propaganda failure for the US side. Their weaponry is inferior to Russia’s.
It remains to getting the truth out to the people of the socalled West, after they were so completely propagandized to believing that Russia was nothing but a gas station.

Posted by: Up North | May 17 2023 15:20 utc | 545

I hope you are wrong about the timing. I cannot see how the Zelensky mafia can hold out beyond this year.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 17 2023 14:29 utc | 550

Kiev had no say in the matter. Even if Kiev wanted to end the civil war, the War Party won‘t let them negotiate. Zelensky and his gov‘t have zero influence over Military matters. NATO runs Kiev‘s military, and NATO wants to escalate.
The 2024/25 glorious (sic) counter-offensive will be made up roughly of 1/3 locals, 1/3 Americans, and 1/3 Euros. That’s what that Foreign Affairs article was suggesting.
Moscow and Eurasia understands this, that’s why their Grand Strategy is to bankrupt the War Partx via de-dollarization.
The War Partx thinks by escalating, it will cause Russia to overthrow the maddog Putin. They honestly believe Russian society will be begging to end sanctions and be allowed to go shopping on Fifth Avenue again. That’s the War Party‘s Grand Strategy (as far as I can tell).

Posted by: Exile | May 17 2023 15:20 utc | 546

From RezidentUA (https://t.me/rezident_ua/17825) Telegram channel:
“In Bakhmut, the situation is critical and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced to withdraw from their positions, there are less than 10 high-rise buildings left under the control of the Ukrainian army. The counterattack on Kleshcheevka failed and now the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a few days left to launch a new counteroffensive and try to flank the city, if this is not done, Syrsky’s plan will fail, and the operation will bog down.”
@DDGeopolitics
Dima/Military Summary says Ukrainian engineers or forces are trying to prepare new positions west of Chasov yar for the forces that manage to withdraw from Bakhmut.

Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 15:22 utc | 547

The US State Department is tightly focused on deterring China from supplying weapons to Russia because the State Department wants to quickly finish off Russia in order to concentrate on bringing American “freedom and democracy” to China.
As ever, the Yanks have it arse about face. While The Americans are looking in the opposite direction, Russia is helping to arm China, so that when Blinken and his mob start goading China, what they will face is a combination of Russian technology with Chinese mass production.
It will be even more of a humiliating debacle than Ukraine.

Posted by: CitizenSmith | May 17 2023 15:23 utc | 548

I don’t know about the rest of you but that picture looks like a spray and pray defence to me. I’m not convinced that the “thinking”reached the level of “let’s get rid of these missiles before Mr Kinzal comes a-visiting them and blows us all to kingdom come”

Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | May 17 2023 15:23 utc | 549

Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 15:22 utc | 569
…new position west of Ivanovske, not Chasov yar…

Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 15:24 utc | 550

@ natokraine | May 17 2023 11:59 utc | 523
You are welcome.
Keep up with the Desai/Hudson conversations on GeoPoliticalEconomyReport and you will learn a lot. I certainly have.

Posted by: Don Firineach | May 17 2023 15:24 utc | 551

@Exile | May 17 2023 15:20 utc | 568
I was not suggesting the Kiev regime would negotiate, I was suggesting it would collapse on way or the other.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 17 2023 15:25 utc | 552

Up North | May 17 2023 15:20 utc | 567
the first rule of usa’s pentagon is maximize industry profits, been that way since usa started spending itself to disarmament in the 1960’s.
axiom: to keep the industry profitable build stuff at profit before the stuff pass any meaningful tests, and refit at more profit if other profits centers do not supersede! there are always new stuff overrunning!*
sadly there are always more profits to expend in new junk.
any lessons from vietnam immediately ignored.
*at end of cold war a small group suggested only ‘build small quantity of new stuff’; but profits prevailed!

Posted by: paddy | May 17 2023 15:31 utc | 553

RE: Paul Greenwood | 516 & 519
“Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann is a joke”
“It is not for this stupid old woman to decide if Germany is a Co-Belligerent it is for Russia to decide”
She doesn’t decide anything of geostrategic importance, nor do any of her peers in German and other US vassal state politics. It’s been that way since WW2 – they are puppets without agency at least for key decisions.
But why has the hegemon recently installed a new crop of puppets that is, and nowhere more so than in Germany, so criminal and corrupt far beyond previous standards, shockingly inept, despicable as much as laughable?
It’s by design: escalate the public’s loss of trust in and disenfranchisement with national politics to such a level that it will accept, even welcome the competent experts of the coming world government (WHO, UN). Notice how after it had been ridiculed for decades as conspiracy theory, now the puppets are all in giddy anticipation of “Ze New World Order” (Ursula von der Leyen), and “2023 is Year One of the New World Order” (some US politician recently).
The preparations were made while the plebs was transfixed by “The Pandemic”, required national laws have been passed. As ever: Problem – Reaction – Solution.

Posted by: Leser | May 17 2023 15:43 utc | 554

*at end of cold war a small group suggested only ‘build small quantity of new stuff’; but profits prevailed!
Posted by: paddy | May 17 2023 15:31 utc |
Yes, that all seems to be proving true paddy.
Just throw in a large dose of US arrogance, as was demonstrated right from the beginning when they rated Russia as a defeated little country with a gas station.
Can America shield it’s military ranks from the real truth to save morale? It’s bad enough already with them coming to the understanding that their aircraft carriers are sitting ducks!
China has an idea for how the world’s people can move forward to living a better way!

Posted by: Up North | May 17 2023 15:50 utc | 555

Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 15:22 utc | 569
Dima/Military Summary says…

Anybody who listens to what Dima says should be eating with a bib. Dima is a charlatan and a fool.

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | May 17 2023 15:54 utc | 556

Katharina | May 17 2023 11:46 utc | 517
i suppose you mean this guy… i now remember him as he was demoted after saying what he did regarding germany.. he is probably related, but i can’t find any info to confirm this..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andriy_Melnyk_(diplomat)

Posted by: james | May 17 2023 15:56 utc | 557

@ unimperator
i for one certainly appreciate all your many fine posts and commentary..

Posted by: james | May 17 2023 15:57 utc | 558

Someone mentioned this earlier; apologies if already posted:
https://tass.com/world/1618535

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | May 17 2023 15:58 utc | 559

Nothing short of Russia’s needs are gunna end this war. It’ll be 5000 tanks surrounding Kiev if that’s what it takes. No amount of nefarious behind- the-scenes wheedling by fucking Poland and its kooky mates will change the course of the SMO.
Posted by: The Dolphin | May 17 2023 14:05 utc | 547
Been saying pretty much the same thing in my posts. “This war aint over till Russia says it is.”
Things are starting to fall apart for NATO/US. If they try to run away as they have many times before
Russia will grab them by the collar and drag them back to the fight. Their excuse of. We have another war to fight in Taiwan, will be met with laughter. As Russia slaps NATO across its cowardly face.

Posted by: Golddiggr | May 17 2023 16:04 utc | 560

I don’t know about the rest of you but that picture looks like a spray and pray defence to me. I’m not convinced that the “thinking”reached the level of “let’s get rid of these missiles before Mr Kinzal comes a-visiting them and blows us all to kingdom come”
Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | May 17 2023 15:23 utc | 571
This interpretation might be amusing but is unlikely to be accurate. The launchers, radars and control stations for Patriot missiles are designed to be dispersed. They are interconnected by control cables or microwave links. The launchers and radar unit are supposed to be unmanned. Only the control station which doesn’t emit any signals and can be camouflaged is supposed to be manned.
No sane operator of the Patriot system would think that launching missiles blindly to empty the launchers would mitigate the damage from a missile impact.
My guess is that Russia employed drones and decoys launched from multiple directions to distract and saturate the Patriot battery. The Kinzahl missiles were timed to arrive on target after the missiles had been launched. The primary targets would be the radar with the launchers being only secondary. The control module would be the most lucrative target but probably impossible to hit because it has zero emissions.

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 17 2023 16:04 utc | 561

james @ 580
And I like the cut of your jib if you know what I mean

Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 16:17 utc | 562

My guess is that Russia employed drones and decoys launched from multiple directions to distract and saturate the Patriot battery. The Kinzahl missiles were timed to arrive on target after the missiles had been launched. The primary targets would be the radar with the launchers being only secondary. The control module would be the most lucrative target but probably impossible to hit because it has zero emissions.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 17 2023 16:04 utc
That could serve as an explanation for why US media says that all 18 were shot down. BUT, they lied when they said that no Russian missiles got through!
And so how can we trust you Elmer? An apology for lying is in order!

Posted by: Up North | May 17 2023 16:21 utc | 563

@ Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | May 16 2023 19:30 utc | 203
Unfortunately, separating yourself from the “western” LGBT movement will not win you an ounce of respect from the homophobes here or in general, as you can probably tell by now. Homophobes are the same everywhere: they are so viscerally fearful and hateful of homosexuality, so delusionally attached to Pauline-christian diktat, that they will never accept or tolerate us.
But never stop posting here: your comments are regularly informative, and the more we fag this place up, the more the homophobes have to deal with us, and the more likely they are to leave, increasing the quality of the comments section here dramatically. Imagine how much more informative this comment section would be if every other comment wasn’t some neo-Nazi or Bircher brain fart.

Posted by: fnord | May 17 2023 16:22 utc | 564

On topic, the Ukrainian state brazenly lies. I guess they have to shore up the confidence of the citizenry in the war effort, but eventually telling so many lies will only disorient themselves. 6 Kinzhals shot down, when less than 6 were fired, and when we can tell with our own eyes that the Patriot missile defense systems were damaged? The Patriot system couldn’t reliably intercept Iraqi scuds, or even the primitive Houthi rockets!
But Ukraine boosters will believe anything, from Russia orchestrating a “genocide” (this word has lost all meaning in the west) against Ukrainians to the Russian military being incompetent despite it controlling substantial Ukrainian territory. If there’s one thing you can rely on in this war, it’s that the Ukrainian state can not be trusted to tell the truth.

Posted by: fnord | May 17 2023 16:30 utc | 565

On topic, the Ukrainian state brazenly lies. I guess they have to shore up the confidence of the citizenry in the war effort, but eventually telling so many lies will only disorient themselves. 6 Kinzhals shot down, when less than 6 were fired, and when we can tell with our own eyes that the Patriot missile defense systems were damaged? The Patriot system couldn’t reliably intercept Iraqi scuds, or even the primitive Houthi rockets!
But Ukraine boosters will believe anything, from Russia orchestrating a “genocide” (this word has lost all meaning in the west) against Ukrainians to the Russian military being incompetent despite it controlling substantial Ukrainian territory. If there’s one thing you can rely on in this war, it’s that the Ukrainian state can not be trusted to tell the truth.
Posted by: fnord | May 17 2023 16:30 utc
Maybe the Patriot missile system was completely destroyed?
What did we see with our own eyes?

Posted by: Up North | May 17 2023 16:33 utc | 566

fnord | May 17 2023 16:22 utc | 587
*** Imagine how much more informative this comment section would be if every other comment wasn’t some neo-Nazi or Bircher brain fart.***
So when are you all being redeployed?

Posted by: Cynic | May 17 2023 16:33 utc | 567

Well, there were only 2 Kinzhals were launched, that is, what Shoigu said. No one had seen a Kinzhal flying in, that is, except those who did and left this world. No one appear to have even seen any debris from such a Kinzhal. It is even hard to intercept a Iskander or a Caliber for the Ukies, or the US AA systems.

Posted by: ostro | May 17 2023 16:34 utc | 568

597.
Who and what pudenda you like to play with don’t matter to me or anyone else worth noting. Further, noone knows who you actually are.
I’m gay too! Or maybe I’m not! See, it’s all just meaningless posturing because your identity is hidden. Noone cares, get over yourself. People who define themselves by who they fuck..I’m bisexual like nature intended BTW.. are fucking tedious.
Imagine if the Western media reported factually on Ukraine.
Imagine if trolls like yourself stopped shitposting on every thread.
Imagine if just once we had a real discussion in public with our corrupted leaders about their intentions to bring war to China with the shitty Maerican weapons they have.
Imagine.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 17 2023 16:37 utc | 569

@ostro | May 17 2023 16:34 utc | 591

Well, there were only 2 Kinzhals were launched, that is, what Shoigu said. No one had seen a Kinzhal flying in, that is, except those who did and left this world. No one appear to have even seen any debris from such a Kinzhal. It is even hard to intercept a Iskander or a Caliber for the Ukies, or the US AA systems.

After all the 30+ missiles had been launched, the Patriot system could presumably be hit by anything, including subsonic weapons.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 17 2023 16:45 utc | 570

After all the 30+ missiles had been launched, the Patriot system could presumably be hit by anything, including subsonic weapons.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 17 2023 16:45 utc | 593

Could be, but the idea was to kill the US Patriot AA system by a Kinzhal. It is also a smack on the face…

Posted by: ostro | May 17 2023 16:52 utc | 571

Previously posted?
Russia claims one Patriot system destroyed and one damaged. Seeing with our own eyes would indicate that.

Posted by: Up North | May 17 2023 16:58 utc | 572

“A poster up the thread made an excellent suggestion to use a one-way hash of a secret pass phrase as a way to verify that a post is the authentic author.”
“by: Ghost of Zanon | May 17 2023 10:59 utc | 503”
That was me. Thanks for being the only one to prove it actually posted. Btw, unfortunate choice of nick, I’d been automatically skipping all of your posts. I guess I’ll stop doing that now.
“Most sites eliminate that possibility by having a login for their comment section.”
“by: Simon | May 17 2023 15:09 utc | 563”
So “most sites” (which includes every site run by Five Eyes) destroy any possibility of anonymity by forcing all posters to log in, often through some Gargle or Fartbook scheme or demanding a valid email address, to force positive identification of their real-life identity. That has been unnecessary since way back in computer history, and is neither necessary nor beneficial today. Did Five Eyes pay you for your comment ‘Simon’? If not, you should send them a bill.

Posted by: Dalit | May 17 2023 17:08 utc | 573

It looks like Wagner had taken all of Bakhmut…

Posted by: ostro | May 17 2023 17:11 utc | 574

That could serve as an explanation for why US media says that all 18 were shot down. BUT, they lied when they said that no Russian missiles got through!
And so how can we trust you Elmer? An apology for lying is in order!
Posted by: Up North | May 17 2023 16:21 utc | 586
No apology from myself is in order. Some of the comments on this thread have been just as disingenuous as the statements of General Kirby and the media about “the great victory” of the Patriot system. None of us know if the Patriot succeeded in shooting down any missiles or drones. Certainly a saturation attack with drones and smaller, cheaper missiles to deplete the Patriot battery with a prompt followup salvo of Kinzahl would be an effective tactic.
You owe me an apology.

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 17 2023 17:29 utc | 575

Posted by: Dalit | May 17 2023 17:08 utc | 596
Your idea re passphrase is certainly good and I would offer myself to implement it but AFAIK this blog uses Typed which is hosted so I guess b doesn’t have the possibility to fiddle with it…

Posted by: Zet | May 17 2023 17:37 utc | 576

@ fnord | May 17 2023 16:22 utc | 587
it is after all, a topic to do with ukraine for the most part.. i think most at moa are very tolerant and accepting.. however, this doesn’t preclude those who would like to see moa die… this would be those bellingcrap and cia types who are typically referred to as trolls here at moa… for them to jump on an unrelated topic like this and try to make a bigger mess of moa is a given.. ignore them all..

Posted by: james | May 17 2023 17:59 utc | 577

@HansJuergen – 6 – if you think that Russia is getting its intelligence on the strength of the Ukrainian military from western MSM reports, then things in Russia are far more sorry than I ever would have suspected.

Posted by: Feral Finster | May 17 2023 18:33 utc | 578

@ fnord | May 17 2023 18:13 utc | 601
sure…. either you want to understand, or you don’t…

Posted by: james | May 17 2023 21:32 utc | 579

It was a pleasant treat to see a Paveway contribution.

Posted by: upsetter | May 17 2023 22:37 utc | 580

Semi tongue in cheek. My guess is the ukr/us patriots did intercept the Russian missiles; Right inside the patriot launch tubes. Great patriot system doesn’t even have to be fired.

Posted by: endthefed | May 17 2023 23:26 utc | 581

@#605: please stop nicking my jokes, lol 😉

Posted by: Kaiama | May 17 2023 23:48 utc | 582

Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | May 16 2023 16:47 utc | 91
Well why are you here, You have no chance of changing anyones opinion with your trolling

Posted by: Les-1946 | May 18 2023 1:22 utc | 583

Coming off the ropes and stinging like a bee!
These aircraft lured into an ambush last week are being avenged with holy fury now.
There will be a new song in Russia about an incandescent maiden Kinzallerya.. and the posies of fireworks of treasures to greet her by her vanquished foes.

Posted by: DunGroanin | May 19 2023 5:31 utc | 584

What really happened!
I found this jewel in the comments section of Simplicius’ article.

American Patriots nailed Putin’s hypersonic Kinzhal missile. The world has changedThe Telegraph, May 17, 2023
There’s much excitement around the world following the events of Monday night, in which Ukrainian air defences armed with US-made weapons reportedly neutralised a heavy Russian missile attack against Kyiv.
In particular the attack apparently included six KH-47M2 Kinzhal (“Dagger”) air-launched missiles, which are often described as “hypersonic”, frequently with the added assertion that there is no defence against such weapons. All six were reportedly stopped by US-made Patriot air defence interceptors, though a Patriot installation was apparently damaged – perhaps by debris from a downed Russian weapon.
Another Kinzhal was also shot down by a Patriot earlier this month. Monday’s interceptions would seem to have confirmed that this was not simply a lucky shot, and the Patriot does indeed offer a strong defence against the Kinzhal and similar weapons.
So, is the world different today? Can any nation in possession of Patriots or similar interceptors rest easy, unworried by the thought of hypersonic weapons – perhaps even, hypersonic nuclear weapons – in enemy hands?

The original in The Telegraph is behind a paywall, but the above links to a free version on Yahoo! News. The Telegraph is a very reliable source, so I am sure the article will be used on the Wikipedia articles on both the Kinzhal and the Patriot.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 19 2023 12:33 utc | 585