Ukraine – Air Defense Lessons (Updated)

May 16, 2023

Updated below

This is factual:

Patriot Missiles Won’t Save Ukraine – National Interest – May 9, 2023

Patriot systems are limited to pinpoint defense of major assets and are designed to operate in tandem with air defenses engaging targets at higher and lower altitudes. Without these additions, Patriot will have too many threats to engage and the result will either be porous coverage that doesn’t protect its defended assets, or coverage that quickly subsides when Patriot runs out of interceptors.

Moreover, Patriot systems are themselves vulnerable. Operating a Patriot radar system gives away its location, making it an open target for Russian attacks. This means that Patriot is not a one-stop-shop for defending Ukraine’s military assets or its people.

Those facts were proven last night.

War Monitor @WarMonitors – 1:23 UTC · May 16, 2023

⚡️I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but after careful review of this video, it appears that the air defence battery (most likely patriot) tried to save itself, but failed. It most probably got toasted.
Embedded video

bigger

Those were expensive two minutes for the 'West':

Fennec_Radar @RadarFennec – 1:45 UTC · May 16, 2023

I counted 30 Patriot PAC-3 MSE launches here.
The FY2024 costs of these per missile is about $$5,275,000
That was $158,250,000 fired in about two minutes. And as we see, the battery or something else likely got blown up. So it failed in its mission.
Embedded video

This though is likely not true. Kinzhals are simply too fast to be hit by any of Ukraine's air defenses:

Defense of Ukraine @DefenceU – 6:40 UTC · May 16, 2023

Last night, russian terrorists attacked Ukraine with:
– 6 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
– 9 Kalibr missiles
– 3 ground-launched missiles
– drones

ALL TARGETS SHOT DOWN.
Glory to the Ukrainian Air Forces!
We are grateful to our partner states for strengthening our air defense capabilities.

The casualty numbers in today's clobber report by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation may be a bit exaggerated but the general operational facts are usually true:

The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation launched a combined attack with long-range precision-guided air- and sea-based weapons against the AFU units, as well as depots of ammunition, weapons and military equipment supplied by Western countries.

The goal of the attack has been reached. All the assigned targets have been neutralised.

U.S.-manufactured Patriot surface-to-air missile system has been struck by Kinnzhal hypersonic glide vehicle in Kiev.
…
Fighter Aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces have shot down Su-24 and Su-25 aircraft of Ukrainian Air Force near Varvarovka and Krasnoarmeysk (Donetsk People's Republic).

Air defence forces intercepted seven Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles, three HARM anti-radar missiles and seven HIMARS multiple-launch rocket system projectiles.

Air defence facilities have shot down 22 unmanned aerial vehicles close to Ivanovka and Yevgenovka (Donetsk People's Republic), Topolyovka (Lugansk People's Republic), Inzhenernoye, Blagoveshchenka (Zaporpzhye region), and Krynki (Kherson region).

Ukraine does not have an integrated air defense that can attack all air targets at all levels. Russia though has such an integrated system of systems. It makes for a huge difference.

Updated – 16:30 UTC:

U.S. confirms hit on Patriot system:

Alex Marquardt @MarquardtA – 16:23 UTC · May 16, 2023

A Patriot system was likely damaged but not destroyed by a Russian missile barrage Monday night, a US official tells @NatashaBertrand. US is still assessing the damage which to determine whether the system needs to be pulled back entirely or be repaired by the Ukrainians.

Posted by b on May 16, 2023 at 13:47 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Posted by: Ed | May 17 2023 0:23 utc | 353
Why are people here bothering to respond to someone called “No-a- Malarkey”? Get it?

Posted by: The Dolphin | May 17 2023 4:03 utc | 401

Patriot missile also made a loop back and intercepted the Kiev zoo. This just keeps getting better and better. Recall that there is a similar video on u-tube from Saudi Arabia.
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1658353220115103745

Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 4:16 utc | 402

Simplicus’ latest hinting that Storm Shadow will be used to target ZNPP is disturbing indeed.

Posted by: too scents | May 17 2023 4:23 utc | 403

Patriot missile also made a loop back and intercepted the Kiev zoo.
Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 4:16 utc | 424
—
“Once the rockets are up, Who cares where they come down? That’s not my department” says Wernher von Braun.

Posted by: too scents | May 17 2023 4:26 utc | 404

Posted by: Exile | May 17 2023 4:30 utc | 405

If they are preparing for direct war, and I’ve said as much at Simplicius’ Substack, I sure as hell hope we’re wrong. They may think they talk a good game and have people fooled, but as we all know, the US only has nuclear brinksmanship in their proverbial arsenal. Plus they are wanting real bad to ‘pivot’ to China. Obviously the people pulling the various puppet strings aren’t gathered in a single star chamber and coming to unanimous agreements on what will happen, so there are numerous possibilities still on the horizon. What really scares me the most is the fact that they have clamped down so tightly on the narrative and on the means by which narratives are shared. Generally that only happens on this scale (and given the ‘online’ world the scale is bigger now) before some sort of foolhardy US/NATO military action. When we aren’t allowed to think heterodox thoughts on Russia/Ukraine/China/etc. it means that TPTB are priming us for something big. Again, I hope I’m wrong.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 17 2023 2:41 utc | 405

There are multiple reasons for why they might be so desperate:
They are collapsing economically because they have no natural resources left internally. They were collapsing economically in the 1970s and 1980s too, but managed to buy themselves another couple decades through the betrayal of their country by Soviet elites — Eastern Europe and the former USSR were looted and that bought the Western prosperity of the 1990s and the 2000s. But then Putin put some constraints in place. Now they need to buy themselves another few decades, and that means dismembering Russia and thoroughly looting its natural resources
In the same time, Russia (and, just as importantly, China too) is rapidly pulling away militarily, and their window of action is closing. Russia now has the tech to do a first strike and largely survive the second strike, but it probably does not have it rolled out actually deployed in the needed numbers. BTW, a lot of these are actually merely late Soviet developments that were frozen in the 1990s and resurrected after the US pulled out of the ABM treaty. So imagine where the USSR would have been by now had it not collapsed…
These are the explanations that I see.
Their actions speak of an extreme level of desperation. Launching hundreds cruise missiles against Russia, and not as a surprise attack, but openly announcing it well in advance? Who could have even imagined that a few years ago? That has been gamed out to death and is supposed to result in an all-out nuclear exchange….

Posted by: shadowbanned | May 17 2023 4:50 utc | 406

I have a feeling Israel suffered their perhaps biggest military casualties event ever with this Patriot hit.
Just a hunch, no proof whatsoever but who else besides Americans best knows how to use these systems? And if the Americans didn’t commit personnel along with them, who else did? I don’t think Ukrainians were able to be trained in the complexity of their use that fast.

Posted by: Mushroom | May 17 2023 5:22 utc | 407

Posted by: karlof1 | May 16 2023 22:56 utc | 317
Thanks for that comprehensive study, karlof1, and it’s now very late for me, but I had the thought at the end that ideologies aside, it all comes back to how does a country or group of countries engulfed in a failing economic mechanism make the necessary changes once it reaches the bottom and actually becomes dysfunctional?
I’ve referenced this before, that it was Putin who warned the US it was heading for the very disaster it helped to cause in the Soviet Union’s downfall. And maybe you or I won’t get to see how that resolves, but we did see it for Russia. We saw it evolve into a civilization state, right here; in our archives!
That’s what I’m hanging onto for the US. Like the good Martin Luther King, I’ll say I may not get there with you, USofA, but just follow Russia’s path, even storm the White House if you have to, live through a Yeltsin era … (maybe we’ve been there, done that?)… experience hopelessness, (yep!)…and then…
And then! Russia did it with China’s help; we’ve got them — and the rest of the world as well!!
Maybe I will get to see it?!? Keep on keeping on, everyone.

Posted by: juliania | May 17 2023 5:30 utc | 408

All our sources are sure that the future military campaign will be for the terms on which peace agreements will be signed in the Ukrainian crisis.

https://t.me/legitimniy/15365

Posted by: Down South | May 17 2023 5:44 utc | 409

@Posted by: juliania | May 17 2023 5:30 utc | 431
The USA will not recover after its decline. It will be sliced up into several powerless rump states and a large percentage of the former American population will just be killed outright.

Posted by: FVK | May 17 2023 5:47 utc | 410

❗️АО The Obukhov Plant (part of the Almaz-Antey Air Defense Concern) in St. Petersburg will be able to produce 2-3 thousand drones a month starting July 1, Mikhail Podvyaznikov, deputy director general of the Almaz-Antey Air Defense Concern and general director of the enterprise, said.
“The UAVs turned out to be very successful for training in UAV control. We have made more than 1 thousand units, a large number were shipped to military units for testing. Today we put digital cameras on them. Earlier, they were just toys for training. At the end of May we have a task to make another 1,000 drones with digital cameras that can do reconnaissance and, I think, by about July 1 we will have 2,000-3,000 drones that will be assembled according to special documentation to work in the NWO zone,” he said.
Note: in other words, it took a year to develop the product, together with the design documentation, it passed military acceptance, and set up serial production… fast.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/46462

Posted by: Down South | May 17 2023 5:48 utc | 411

@karlof1.
This vid?
https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1658486303330291721

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 17 2023 5:50 utc | 412

‼️🇺🇦🏴‍☠️🇷🇺🇺🇸Zelensky shot down all the “Daggers” over Kiev: the clown was not informed that CNN had already recognized the hit of the rocket on the Patriot
In the evening address, the drug-addicted president also thanked the military of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for 18 out of 18 missiles shot down. “Therefore, we are constantly working on visits that will bring more opportunities, more Patriot, IRIS-T, Crotale, Hawk, NASAMS systems,” Zelensky said.

https://t.me/sitreports/8787
Video in link

Posted by: Down South | May 17 2023 5:50 utc | 413

WhirlX 291 22:15
>What is subhypersonic?
>It can be subsonic, supersonic, or hypersonic.
My only point is that Paveway said “subhypersonic”
and you misquoted him as “subsonic”.
But clearly, by the definition of “hypersonic” (>= Mach 5), it
means less than Mach 5.
—————————–
From the web:
“If it strikes with a mass of 2,000 kg (4,400 lb), including 500 kg warhead, and at a speed of Mach 12, the Kinzhal has more than 16.9 gigajoules of kinetic energy excluding detonation, the equivalent of 4,000 kg of TNT.”
—————————–
Are you serious? I give you a formula based on high-school physics and
you counter that you looked something up on the web?
As it happens, if you just plug M=12, N=2 into the formula I derived
“tons of TNT” = 0.014 * M^2 * N,
you get the same answer (4). However, you quoted values of
M=7 and N=0.4, and just wrote down a result that did not correspond
to these numbers.

Posted by: Cindy Martin | May 17 2023 5:51 utc | 414

Mushroom | May 17 2023 5:22 utc | 430
Agree and commented same earlier in thread.
IMO it would be U$ manning those Patriots. Maybe with a few Ukr in the team.

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 17 2023 5:52 utc | 415

“Patriot crews celebrate local wedding, Pakistan-style.”
Any evidence of those missiles returning to earth?

Posted by: begob | May 17 2023 6:00 utc | 416

Posted by: Simon | May 17 2023 0:54 utc | 367
“I don’t think it is a symmetrical situation. The USA spends a fortune on defense and has military bases around the world and a CIA that works to topple governments and assassinate leaders. They actively try to control the world and have Russia and now China in their sights. China and Russia are not doing the same.”
Aye for sure, you know that, I know that. However, their belief system is if America fell they are next. The European ruling class believe they will loose everything. It’s why the EU set up in the first place.
The very simple truth is You can’t judge or compare how countries act now with America in place compared with how they will act if America fell. You just need to compare pre Berlin wall to after the Berlin wall fell. America’s behaviour changed dramatically after the wall fell.

Posted by: Derek Henry | May 17 2023 6:29 utc | 417

BBC is not “reporting” anything on Ukraine today morning. CNN is still in the yesterday mode…

Posted by: ostro | May 17 2023 6:34 utc | 418

Saying Russia and China’s behaviour wouldn’t change if America wasn’t there is quite a bold statement. Goes against both human nature and world history.
Either way, the European ruling class are not going to take a risk and find out if that is true or not. Hence why we are were we are and defines everything the EU does.

Posted by: Derek Henry | May 17 2023 6:40 utc | 419

re: USA collapse
It’s impossible to predict what the final outcome will be once the Federal Gov’t can’t sell cheap debt to fund 30% of its budget. (Aka bankrupt ) However, in the economic and social chaos that follows – it’s easy to predict horrific banditry and atrocities over a decade long period. Imagine, the 30 year war but with automatic weapons.
For example – What happens when the various gov’t paramilitaries figure out their once plush gov’t pensions are worthless ? How many will turn into roving bands of bandits ?

Posted by: Exile | May 17 2023 6:44 utc | 420

🇵🇱🇺🇦⚡A group of European states led by Poland are secretly calling on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop the conflict, said Pulitzer Prize-winning American journalist Seymour Hersh.
“This group is led by Poland, They secretly calls on Zelensky to find a way to end the conflict – even if this requires resigning,” he wrote, noting that this group includes the Baltic and Eastern European countries, in particular Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

https://t.me/intelslava/47790

🇮🇹🇻🇦 The Italian press reports that the Vatican and the Pope personally are very upset by the position of Zelensky, who put everything on his counteroffensive, including the lives of many people.
📰 The newspaper il Fatto Quotidiano claims that the main idea that the pope tried to convey to the Kiev guest was: “Arms deliveries kill hope for peace.” At the same time, the newspaper directly calls the notorious “Formula of Peace”, which Zelensky tried to impose on the pope, a “provocation.”

https://t.me/sitreports/8792

Posted by: Down South | May 17 2023 6:46 utc | 421

@ ostro | May 17 2023 6:34 utc | 441
When the levee breaks …

Posted by: too scents | May 17 2023 6:46 utc | 422

Posted by: too scents | May 17 2023 4:26 utc | 426
“Once the rockets are up…”
Ah Tom Lehrer! Perfect quote 😀

Posted by: Tim | May 17 2023 6:47 utc | 423

Either way, the European ruling class are not going to take a risk and find out if that is true or not. Hence why we are were we are and defines everything the EU does.
Posted by: Derek Henry | May 17 2023 6:40 utc | 442
Hilarious !!
There is no “European ruling class” – not since 1940 has there been anything even resembling such.
There are politicians strutting around pretending to be “in control” as they “go with the flow”….but they are frightened, personally frightened………of major conflict and destruction.
European political constructs are flimsy. Very few countries in Europe really exist as historical entities – most are concoctions from 19th or 20th centuries – and fissile. Germany is a prime example – Berlin was the self-anointed (illegal) capital of GDR and loathed by East Germans………it was Kohl and Schauble who rigged the vote to move from Bonn to Berlin………pretending it was “good for GDR citizens to feel part of New Germany”……….but it has been an unmitigated disaster and almost GDR 2.0
Voters in the East do not support those political parties boosted in the Western Zone – Greens, SPD are toast in the former GDR. The structures are different, the people are different, energy prices are higher in the East and incomes are lower.
So forget your “European ruling class”………….it is tip-toeing round the crest of the volcano – Russia can take its time – at least another winter before Europe implodes……..2024 is the year of truth for Taiwan elections, US elections, Von der Leyen replacement, UK elections, Ukrainian presidential elections…………
or maybe none will take place ?

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 17 2023 6:59 utc | 424

will be for the terms on which peace agreements will be signed in the Ukrainian crisis.
Oh, you mean like The Treaty on the Final Settlement with Respect to Germany (German: Vertrag über die abschließende Regelung in Bezug auf Deutschland) that Germany violated in its actions against Russian Federation ?

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 17 2023 7:02 utc | 425

If those two minutes of anti-aircraft fire cost $150 million – roughly 30 missiles at $5,000,000 each. That is 50 cents for every American.

Posted by: Passerby | May 17 2023 7:15 utc | 426

A group of European states led by Poland is secretly calling on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to end the conflict, said Pulitzer Prize-winning American journalist Seymour Hersh.
“This group is led by Poles. They secretly urge Zelenskyy to find a way to end the conflict – even if it means resigning,” he wrote, noting that this group includes the Baltic and Eastern European countries, most notably Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

Posted by: mo3.1 | May 17 2023 7:16 utc | 427

Estonia.
Posted by: mo3.1 | May 17 2023 7:16 utc | 450
—
From today’s Financial Times

Estonian PM pleads with companies to resist ‘ghost trade’ with Russia
Kaja Kallas calls out local businesses over their ‘hidden’ support for Moscow
The Estonian prime minister said she had to “plead” with local companies to find a “moral compass” and decline deals that may result in Moscow accessing sanctioned goods.
Kaja Kallas said in an interview that Russia’s lucrative trade circumventing western sanctions was attracting companies in the Baltic states despite the countries’ hawkish stance on the Ukraine war. Her comments come after the Financial Times identified $1bn of such goods having disproportionately passed through the Baltic states, believed to be part of Moscow’s “ghost trade”.
The Estonian leader accused local companies of hypocrisy, telling them: “You are very vocal about . . . Ukraine and Russia and security . . . but in a hidden way . . . you are agreeing [with Moscow]”.
… continues

https://www.ft.com/content/1a17dacf-9c8d-46fe-860d-36ae9b708987

Posted by: too scents | May 17 2023 7:27 utc | 428

Where is Zelensky?
And, Zaluzhny?

Posted by: ostro | May 17 2023 7:38 utc | 429

Re: pentagon’s wunderwaffen:
Two data points
1) in the Vietnam War 1965 -1975 , Pentagon lost some 5,000 airplanes and 5,000 Helicopters fighting against rice farmers in straw hats.
2) in the 67 day bombing campaign against tiny Serbia, Pentagon lost 15 of 24 Stealth Fighters. 3 were shot down and 12 were damaged by flak and needed to be ‘remanufactured’ . Shortly thereafter, the F-117 was quietly (stealthily?) removed from service.
Posted by: Exile | May 17 2023 4:30 utc | 427
Not to forget Afghanistan, where US&NATO left behind several billions worth of high tech military equipment when, one morning, they woke up and realized they had lost the war that, for 22 years, they were convinced they were winning…
Any idea how much of that equipment and technology has ended up in Russia?

Posted by: Marvin | May 17 2023 7:39 utc | 430

Seymour Hersh had a recent claim (article on substack) that Polish led east European bloc is trying to force Ukraine/Zelensky to somehow end the war.
Realistically, I don’t think that’s up to Poland or Ukraine at all because they are unable or unwilling to guarantee any future security agreement and not on driver’s seat.

Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 7:55 utc | 431

In Australia, I see the headline: “Whole world will suffer if USA defaults”.
I think, “Is this just a scare psyop to force Congress to raise the debt ceiling and/or raise global sympathy for a new global crash?”
I open the article to see in what ways “I” might personally suffer.
The writer, a top national economist, outlines how credit will become much harder to get and how local interest rates are “absolutely sure to rise” — despite the fact that “Australia is NOT IN DEBT and has a current account SURPLUS”. Hmmm, how can a bankrupt USA hurt a solvent Australia, I think?
As someone with no mortgage, no credit cards, no personal debt, I have a little chuckle, roll over, and go back to sleep.
Bring it on, I say. The credit junkies can all go down with Big Daddy Dollar. Their stupid fault — just like the US — for living beyond their means.

Posted by: The Dolphin | May 17 2023 7:57 utc | 432

>>> 🇵🇱🇺🇦⚡A group of European states led by Poland are secretly calling on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop the conflict, said Pulitzer Prize-winning American journalist Seymour Hersh. <<< I don't believe it. Poland??!!!??!!! Sorry Seymour. I think you've swallowed some serious disinfo there. Or this is the US way to organise a "pause", re-arm Ukraine, and start afresh next year. Total BS. Putin won't fall for it unless it equals a total unconditional surrender.

Posted by: The Dolphin | May 17 2023 8:04 utc | 433

in what ways “I” might personally suffer.
Posted by: The Dolphin | May 17 2023 7:57 utc | 455
—
When the levee breaks you will be inundated by impoverished grifters coming for your stuff. Just like now, only much more desperately.

Posted by: too scents | May 17 2023 8:04 utc | 434

Our source in the OP said that the strike on the Patriot caused a strong image cost to American air defense and now we may be denied the F-16. On Bankovaya, they tried to shift the focus and hush up information about being hit by daggers, but the video spread all over the world and no one believed in 6 downed supersonic missiles (the propaganda was overdone).
Now consultations are underway with the Pentagon on how to stop the negative information wave and show the Patriot installations to the media, the Americans want to convince everyone that not the entire battery has been destroyed, since the video showed that a salvo of 32 missiles was fired from one position and not one missile hit the dagger.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17823

Posted by: Down South | May 17 2023 8:09 utc | 435

@ shadowbanned | May 17 2023 4:50 utc | 428
While I agree the Natzo warlords probably see it that way, the truth is they have a choice:
– Natzostani lands still contain an abundance of resources, that remain untapped probably for lack of good leadership (singularly focused on violent expansion and doing poorly on internal matters including educating and training a deep pool of skilled labor).
– AI is coming along and will simultaneously facilitate efficient resource exploitation, drastically reduce commuting resource waste, and reduce the need for the skilled labor the leaders failed to cultivate.
The Natzo’s could be wealthy beyond imagination without war. They evidently lack the imagination and courage to change themselves, the nation, and the world for the better.

Posted by: natokraine | May 17 2023 8:14 utc | 436

Assuming that there’s someone with the authority and competence to alter the software that MoonOfAlabama uses, there is a straightforward way to put a stop to these imposters without sacrificing the security or anonymity of other posters. Add an optional “passphrase” field. If there’s anything there, irreversibly hash it into a 32-character string, and show that at the bottom of the final post (but not the preview). Do not require it to be the person’s real-life email address, like some utterly stupid sites do, since that makes it trivial to discover the real identity of the poster. Just accept whatever phrase the poster puts there. Someone trying to impersonate them would have to enter the exact same phrase that the real poster uses, or the resulting hash would be obviously different. This is basically fifty-year-old computer technology, and it works as well now as it did then. There’s no excuse not to use it. Assuming anyone cares enough about the problem.

Posted by: Dalit | May 17 2023 8:22 utc | 437

Turkish media-intelligence sources confirm that yesterday NATO held an emergency meeting on the state of air defense of the largest hub bases for Ukraine in Poland and Slovakia, in light of the failure of the Patriot air defense system in the defense of Kyiv.
The situation is so acute that emergency measures are planned for the strengthening air defense in these areas. lol they see the future and its not looking so grand

Posted by: hankster | May 17 2023 8:23 utc | 438

Chevrus @26
I haven’t seen anyone discuss all the ammunition and weapons depots that “exploded” unaccountably after 2014. The theory is the Ukrainian oligarchs sold off the material stored there (similar to the warehouses in Transnistria that Ukraine is hungering for). After employing them mostly they then blew them up to hide the evidence. Of course, a few were captured by the Donbas forces which is where they got most of their equipment from early on. I recall something like 9 warehouses exploded after 2014 and most was transhipped to destinations unknown (often using Azerbaijan air cargo) through Bulgaria.
Ukraine has been in decline for decades and this just adds to the corruption equation that is the norm there. All this begging for money and equipment is yet another scam but apparently the collective US stooges have gone “all in” against Russia. The attrition of men and equipment is also equally attritting the NATO forces. By the time the war against China develps there won’t be anything left to fight a ground war. I believe Russia fully expects to have to go to war with NATO and has developed forces and equipment sufficient to do this job. There still remains 85% of regular Russian forces uncommitted and I believe are being held back for use in the larger war coming soon.

Posted by: Old Microbiologist | May 17 2023 8:37 utc | 439

Surely there is no military reason to locate an anti-missile system in a densely populated area of a city. Surely too, the structures there would interfere with the radar and other forms of radio communication. So it does seem likely (though I realise I’m sounding like an Israeli making excuses for bombing civilians in Gaza) that the Ukrainians did this in the hope that the Russians wouldn’t bomb them for fear of killing civilians. Which makes nonsense of the Ukrainian claim that the Russians are monsters — there’d be no point in locating the launchers in a city then.
I may be wrong, but Mr Larkey seems to be expressing sharp pain at harm caused to NATO. For which we should feel little sympathy.

Posted by: MFB | May 17 2023 8:42 utc | 440

In Bakhmut, the situation is heretical and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced to withdraw from their positions, there are less than 10 high-rise buildings left under the control of the Ukrainian army.
The counterattack on Kleshcheevka failed and now the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a few days left to launch a new counteroffensive and try to flank the city, if this is not done, Syrsky’s plan will fail, and the operation will bog down.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17825

Posted by: Down South | May 17 2023 8:51 utc | 441

The operators of the Patriot battery deliberately emptied it’s arsenal to reduce the amount of damage caused by its missiles exploding after a successful strike.

Posted by: RF | May 17 2023 9:00 utc | 442

in the 67 day bombing campaign against tiny Serbia, Pentagon lost 15 of 24 Stealth Fighters. 3 were shot down and 12 were damaged by flak and needed to be ‘remanufactured’ . Shortly thereafter, the F-117 was quietly (stealthily?) removed from service.
Posted by: Exile | May 17 2023 4:30 utc | 427
Wow never heard that before.
I knew they took down a f117 with a missile.
But that many damaged?
Wow!

Posted by: jpc | May 17 2023 9:00 utc | 443

Russian embassy tweet, gotta love it.
https://twitter.com/RusEmbUSA/status/1658578301366210562

Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 9:00 utc | 444

>”🇵🇱🇺🇦⚡A group of European states led by Poland are secretly calling on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop the conflict, said Pulitzer Prize-winning American journalist Seymour Hersh.”
I don’t believe it. Poland??!!!??!!!
Sorry Seymour. I think you’ve swallowed some serious disinfo there. Or this is the US way to organise a “pause”, re-arm Ukraine, and start afresh next year. Total BS. Putin won’t fall for it unless it equals a total unconditional surrender.
Posted by: The Dolphin | May 17 2023 8:04 utc | 456

Why do you think this is impossible? The Polish leadership should have a very good info on the military situation, including losses of Polish servicemen. If they know the situation is grave then they wouldn’t want to call for ceasefire or negotations openly, for obvious reasons. So behind the scenes is all they can do. Perhaps shift the blame on the Hungarians (for obstructing the effort), to Germans (for too late and too little), to China etc. Russia remains the ultimage evil in offical Polish eyes but a lost cause should be stopped earlier rather than later. Don’t think they’re stupid only because they’re evil.

Posted by: Konami | May 17 2023 9:06 utc | 445

Meanwhile Russia shows actually what a functioning air defense means and how it works.
“S-300 and BUK air defense systems shot down 3 HARM and 2 HIMARS missiles in the South-Donetsk direction.
Russian air defenses had shot down seven of Ukraine’s new Storm Shadow cruise missiles over the special military operation zone, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced on May 16.
Head of the press center of the 🇷🇺”Vostok” group, Alexander Gordeev.”
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/30786
https://southfront.org/russian-mod-says-seven-ukrainian-storm-shadow-missiles-were-shot-down/

Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 9:07 utc | 446

Please B, scrub the obscene posts in this thread. We want to talk about world-changing events and not about sexual perversions and the like. As I said before, watch out or it goes the Southfront comments way, which is intolerable.

Posted by: Anthony | May 17 2023 9:08 utc | 447

@unimperator | May 17 2023 4:16 utc | 424

Patriot missile also made a loop back and intercepted the Kiev zoo.

Any Leopards there?

Posted by: Norwegian | May 17 2023 9:13 utc | 448

Old microbiologist – 462
“I recall something like 9 warehouses exploded after 2014 and most was transhipped to destinations unknown (often using Azerbaijan air cargo) through Bulgaria.”
By destinations unknown, I suppose you mean “mostly Syria”, because I remember rebels getting a lot of weapons allegedly from Bulgaria and Romania?

Posted by: Clueless Joe | May 17 2023 9:26 utc | 449

Posted by: Down South | May 17 2023 8:09 utc | 458

Colleagues, you are right that a hit on a Patriot air defense system is an image blow to the American military-industrial complex. Therefore, our office workers continue to lie that there were no hits, although everyone clearly saw 2 explosions.
According to our data, they hit 1-2 installations, plus the radar installation was also destroyed.
Now Yermak is urgently looking for someone to “secretly” buy such toys at a premium in return, in order to later refute the loss. But there are no such toys on the black market.
There is a version that they ordered “models” for a photo shoot.
Everyone understands that against such a background, partners are unlikely to want to transfer their aircraft, which will begin to fall and lose ratings. We immediately pointed out that the case with the subsequent transfer of new military equipment is in jeopardy, including the transfer of the F-16, which was promised to the Armed Forces of Ukraine after a successful offensive.

https://t.me/legitimniy/15367

Posted by: Down South | May 17 2023 9:26 utc | 450

Incidentally, since I can’t see a relevant Ukraine war thread today, some words from South Africa.
The U.S. ambassador recently claimed that a Russian ship which visited our naval base at Simonstown last December was buying a load of arms. No evidence presented; clearly South African arms are incompatible with Russian military technology even if our weapons were sophisticated enough to be useful. Also, of course, if you knew such a thing (and our military and political leadership are mostly eager to sell info to the CIA, which has a base five minute’s drive from our headquarters in Cape Town) why wait five months to complain about it? It seems that the U.S. is trying to break up BRICS by scaring its weakest member; the problem here is that while our government is craven, they really don’t want to be seen as servants of U.S. colonialism. Also they don’t want to annoy the Chinese.
There’s a report that our President is taking some other African leaders on a jaunt to St Petersburg and Kyiv, to try to get peace talks going. Possibly he hopes that this might get him a little good publicity — God knows, he needs it — but again it presumably wouldn’t be sanctioned without Chinese approval. I doubt it could succeed, but it would embarrass the Americans if Putin voted for peace and Zhelensky voted for war — as he must, of course, in order not to embarrass the Americans.
Meanwhile, the local morning paper ran that story about Ukraine shooting down all imaginable enemy missiles instantaneously with Tom Swift and His Amazing Steam Rocket. It was on Reuters. No word on a Patriot missile battery being destroyed, because — well, what do you expect from Reuters?
All in all, I don’t think U.S. or NATO diplomacy is being very successful if even our cardboard-and-sellotape regime is unimpressed with them.

Posted by: MFB | May 17 2023 9:32 utc | 451

German newspaper Welt Online gloated this morning that the ‘loss of 6 Kinzhals’ was embarrassing for Putin, according to Great Britain, because the Patriot system intercepted them 5 inches from the ground or so.
But another bit of news in Welt jumped at me – some Ukrainian Gestapo guy Kyrylo Budanow bragging about the killing of several Russian ‘propagandists’. It was reported like some innocuous every-day-news. Nothing out of the ordinary. Nothing to even wonder about. Hey, didn’t we do the same, some 80 to 90 years ago? Aaaah, those were the days! Such sweet Nostalgia.
Brings Max Liebermann to mind. “I can’t eat as much as I’d like to throw up.”

Posted by: Katharina | May 17 2023 9:41 utc | 452

Happy 200 000 russian casualties day to everyone who celebrates! We finally did it!

Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 17 2023 9:42 utc | 453

Russia MoD tally
” since the beginning of the special military operation, 427 aircraft, 233 helicopters, 4178 unmanned aerial vehicles, 422 anti-aircraft missile systems, 9176 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,100 multiple launch rocket systems, 4,828 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 10,233 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.” https://t.me/s/mod_russia
I assume it will be relatively accurate as Nato has run out of ex Soviet and eastern block tanks. Much talk about F-16’s now so I assume they are also running out of operational Soviet aircraft.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 17 2023 9:42 utc | 454

How not to like NATO’s target offerings when they are again running intensive ISR circles with their AWACS?
US Boeing RC-135V Rivet Joint, circling around Kaliningrad like a vulture, callsign JAKE11.
That is so overly aggressive, and also not usual for NATO activity over there.
Other stuff currently in the European sky:
Bombardier Challenger 650 ARTEMIS, callsign CL60 scanning along Romanian-Moldovian border, Dutch AWACS Boeing E-3B Sentry, callsign NATO11, coming in from the South to the western Black Sea theatre from Türkiye.
Constant bunch of various fighter jets above north-Eastern coast of UK and North Sea, some AWACS activity over southern Spain, as well.
Certainly there a more of those hiding around, probably buzzing RF military ships in international waters, also doing ISR stuff in the Baltic and elsewhere.
I wonder what might cause RF’s long range AA to start taking those down?
4 lost airframes the other day were obviously not enough to provoke that.
Would Storm Shadow richtung Moscow fire the things up? Kerch Bridge again?
RF must deter this as those are realistic threats as Bakhmut is going to become Artemovsk again very soon.
Defeat there will surely motivate NATO/Ukraine to come with some nasty actions.
If for nothing else, just to sour the RF running the victory laps there.

Posted by: whirlX | May 17 2023 9:54 utc | 455

Posted by: MFB | May 17 2023 9:32 utc | 474
There’s a report that our President is taking some other African leaders on a jaunt to St Petersburg and Kyiv, to try to get peace talks going.
That tallies with the link I posted at 301. It makes more sense that the African delegation would travel to Russia and the Ukraine rather than expect Putin and Zele to show up at a meeting they were convening in Africa.

Posted by: GT Stroller | May 17 2023 9:57 utc | 456

In mid January 2023, MOSSAD put Russian and Ukrainian casualties as follows. That might not be completely accurate, but probably in the ball park.
Russia:
-18480 killed, 44500 wounded, 323 captive
-23 aircraft
-56 helicopters
-200 UAV
-889 tanks and AFV
-427 field artillery
-12 air defense systems
Ukraine:
-157000 killed, 234000 wounded, 17230 captive
-302 aircraft
-212 helicopters
-2750 UAV
-6320 tanks and other AFVs
-7360 field artillery
-497 air defense systems
-plus a few thousand Nato advisors, mercenaries
https://t.me/denatofication/4972
“Wartears.org’s report on Ukrainian casualties
Ukrainian casualties range from 0.96 million to 1.8 million, according to Mossad, US Command, Conflict Intelligence Team (@CITeam), New York Times (@nytimes)
> Soaring Death Toll Gives Grim Insight Into Russian Ukrainian Tactics
> Moscow Kiev is sending poorly trained recruits, including convicts, to the front lines in eastern Ukraine to pave the way for more seasoned fighters, U.S. and allied officials say. – NYT*
Let’s go into detail. Three and a half months ago, we published our mathematical model (https://wartears.org/en/posts/math-model/), to show how we estimate the casualties of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. All this time (and even before: the idea of such an estimation came to us back in June, shortly after the launch of the project), we were very curious about other estimation methods. To our disappointment, there weren’t any.
And finally, a few days ago, CIT posted an article (https://notes.citeam.org/en-dispatch-feb-3-4), referring to another one by the New York Times, where they estimated the losses of Russian troops. Finally, we saw at least some method of calculating the casualties to put our hands on!
Yesterday, it turned out that our estimate of the number of people killed was confirmed by Mossad (https://t.me/wartearsorg/160), and, indirectly, by a retired US colonel (https://t.me/rybar/43319). We were curious as to what would happen if we were to plug our data and estimates of Ukrainian losses into the @CITeam methodology and estimate Ukrainian losses this way.
Here’s what happened:
1. The number of dead – 180 thousand – we took from our estimate, which has already coincided with statements of officials and experts several times with good accuracy.
2. Next (quote from CIT) “we cautiously assume that the number of missing people can be from a third of those buried to an equal number,” and so we get the number of missing people: – from 60 to 180 thousand KIA.
3. That is, the total number of dead and missing Ukrainian military personnel is from 240 to 360 thousand.
4. (CIT again) “To count the wounded, we use ratios from 1:3 to 1:4 to the dead,” which gives us from 720 to 1,440 thousand wounded.
5. (And once again, CIT) “Thus, we estimate the losses of” the Ukrainian military to be between 960 and 1,800 thousand people.
Conclusion: According to the data from MOSSAD and the methodologies of CIT and the NYT, Ukraine has lost from 3 to 6% of its total population.
* Yes, we somewhat loosely tweaked the original title to match the data.
This is just a “half-joking” exercise, but we are hoping to soon deliver a proper detailed analysis and explanation on why such methodology should not be used. We want to seriously explain why such methods are flawed and what exactly their significant shortcomings are.
[Русская версия (https://t.me/wartearsorg/161)]
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/32323

Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 10:00 utc | 457

@ Peter AU1
wouldn’t you say it’s a bit weird to claim almost 10k destroyed tanks when ukraine started the war with less than a thousand?
but there are almost 10k visually confirmed russian tanks so number is correct, just on a different side.

Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 17 2023 10:01 utc | 458

The Ukranian AD is not up to scratch:

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in an interview with RIA Novosti:
“Russia doesn’t launch as many “Kinzhals” as the Ukr command claims shot down in their statements.
The number of these “Ukrainian interceptions” is three times more than number of launched missiles.
And yes, they have problems identifying the types of missiles. That’s why they don’t get hit.”

https://t.me/CyberspecNews/30784
Seems right to me and Shoigu is usually candid in these matters.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 17 2023 10:06 utc | 459

Ing. Smrkovsky | May 17 2023 10:01 utc | 481
Idiot troll. You are so dumb you must be a Ukroid. Not even the sweepings off the streets of American cities would be that bad.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 17 2023 10:08 utc | 460

Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 17 2023 10:01 utc | 481
If I recall correctly, Ukraine started out with 2600 tanks and 12000 armored vehicles (albeit a significant portion of those were mothballed or otherwise disabled). Poland and Czech republic has been refurbishing some of those, in addition to providing more mostly T-72 and T-55 tanks out of their own stockpiles. But that pretty much dried up by the end of last year.
“The army that the Kiev regime started 2022 out with, was the second largest in Europe, after Russia according to Western military assessments, and included some 250,000 active duty troops, and a large arsenal of capable Soviet-legacy military hardware – 2,600 tanks, 14,000 armored vehicles, 3,000 artillery pieces, 500 multiple launch rocket systems, 90 ballistic missiles, nearly a thousand total air defense systems, over 300 military aircraft, and a large drone fleet. This army had been built up for eight years with NATO funding and training, and was dug into heavy fortifications and trenches constructed over the same period.
That military was largely destroyed by Russian forces by the summer.”
https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/ukraines-three-armies

Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 10:11 utc | 461

Back in the mid 2000s the then Indian regime of Manmohan Singh was falling over backwards to appease the George W Shrub dispensation. One of the things Shrub was pressing India to do was purchase the Patriot for the air force. To this end Indian newspapers like the Times Of India and the Telegraph (of Calcutta, not the London one) were paid by the American embassy to run propaganda articles extolling the virtues of this missile. I recall one particular article from 2004 which averred:

“It is true that in the Kuwait War of 1990-1 the Patriot was widely unsuccessful in intercepting Iraqi SCUD missiles. But those problems have been corrected: the proof is that in last year’s invasion of Iraq not one Iraqi SCUD hit American forces.”

I immediately wrote an email to the editor pointing out that Iraq had no SCUDs in 2003, that if they’d had any, it would have justified the invasion, and asking whether the author of the article had bothered to do the ten seconds of research necessary to establish this fact.
They never published the letter, of course.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | May 17 2023 10:13 utc | 462

MFB #9:32 utc | 474
There is something very special about an African diplomat and a Chinese diplomat meeting with the white christian nazi leaders in Ukraine negotiating peace and how they should behave well in the interests of their people.
Times have changed but I doubt the Ukrainian team can adjust to this spectacle 😉

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 17 2023 10:13 utc | 463

uncle tungsten | May 17 2023 10:06 utc | 482
Patriot will go the way of the Bayractor. I’m sure I haven’t spelled that right but couldn’t be bothered looking it up.
Those drones performed well in Syria, Libya, Armenia ect but Ukraine was not a good ad. The mighty Patriot manned by the ghost of Kiev… US will pull out whatever is surviving. Mil tech that doesn’t work is not a good look for sales.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 17 2023 10:16 utc | 464

@unimperator
yeah those numbers are a) bullshit b) if correct, than the russian casualties estimate is bullshit.
Sorry that this doesn’t work out for you.

Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 17 2023 10:21 utc | 465

another bit of news in Welt jumped at me – some Ukrainian Gestapo guy Kyrylo Budanow bragging about the killing of several Russian ‘propagandists’. It was reported like some innocuous every-day-news.
It’s important to make clear what Biden, Blinken, Von Der Leyen, and Boris Johnson mean when they say ‘no negotiations until Russians return to the 1991 borders’ – This is a call to ethnically cleansed around 10 million people

Posted by: Exile | May 17 2023 10:22 utc | 466

So this seems bad:
“Residents of a village in Bashkortostan, Russia, recorded a video appeal to Prosecutor General asking to look into the case where their fellow resident who was mobilised in September 2022 was tortured by Russian servicemen in Ukraine. It is unclear what the man did to deserve the punishment, if anything.”
they even put out a video with their appeal. why do you think these thing happen so regularly for normal russian soldiers? 🙁
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1658768043709702146?s=20

Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 17 2023 10:26 utc | 467

When looking at Ukraine’s number of AFVs and MBTs you have to consider: –
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malyshev_Factory
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fALkElhWinE
That is now out of action……….
but google this “ukraine armoured vehicle losses” and you are directed to Russian losses which tells you how the algorithms are directed

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 17 2023 10:27 utc | 468

how the algorithms are directed
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 17 2023 10:27 utc | 490
—
Google’s algorithm would sell out its mother.

Posted by: too scents | May 17 2023 10:33 utc | 469

It seems to me the Patriot system proved useless in its defense of Saudi Arabia oil fields from Houthi drones and missiles a few years ago. That’s why the Saudis signed a defense agreement with Russia in the aftermath. So now the vaunted US Patriot system has proved useless against a first rate military(Russia) missile attack and also against a third rate military(Houthi) missile attack. Anyone want to guess how it would fare against a second rate military missile attack?

Posted by: Chicago Bob | May 17 2023 10:34 utc | 470

@Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 10:00 utc | 480
“Ukraine has lost from 3 to 6% of its total population.”
Still too low. “Harden your heart, oh Putin; Increase your attacks.” The Ukraine must be fully denazified.

Posted by: FVK | May 17 2023 10:35 utc | 471

Radiation spikes measured in Poland:

Radiation spikes in the air appeared in eastern Poland
Yesterday in Lublin the measuring instruments recorded a sharp increase in bismuth levels by 6-7 times.

Source – Ukraine Watch via: https://t.me/sitreports/8794

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 17 2023 10:36 utc | 472

In Ukraine, there is a catastrophic decline in the able-bodied population – among the reasons not only the flight of our fellow citizens abroad, but also mobilization. As a result, there is a chronic shortage of personnel in key industries and agriculture in the country.
Thus, the number of able-bodied Ukrainians has decreased by 5.5 million people or 30% since the beginning of the military conflict. According to Nina Yuzhanina, a member of the Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy, in peacetime there were 17.4 million able-bodied residents in Ukraine, but after the start of the conflict, one million people were mobilized, and 4.6 million people are abroad (in including 3.2 million women of working age). And in the uncontrolled territories, 1.3 million able-bodied people remained.
The MP stressed that the loss in the labor force in Ukraine is even greater than in Germany after World War II (the Germans lost 16% of the able-bodied population in 1939-1946).
Yuzhanina notes that this situation may be one of the reasons for the slowdown in the recovery innovations of Ukraine. At the same time, the longer the military conflict lasts, “the more Ukrainians will adapt to life abroad and will not want to go back.”

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17828

Posted by: Down South | May 17 2023 10:37 utc | 473

Exile | May 17 2023 10:22 utc | 488
I had typed up a comment to that earlier but blew it. We watch nazis post videos to telegram killing POW’s and so called collaborators. The interior minister or whatever his position is, in an interview with Brit media openly talked about killing ‘collaborators’.Ukraine head military surgeon on national TV openly calls for castrating Russian prisoners.
Western media – nothing to see there folks. The people about me believe the propaganda media no matter how farcical it becomes. Its like they had some sort of lobotomy at birth to remove critical thinking.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 17 2023 10:37 utc | 474

Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 17 2023 10:21 utc | 487
Why should the numbers be BS? Why should the side with much larger firepower take larger losses? Anyone who has been following the war probably saw the Ukrainian attacks where they continuously got chewed up with artillery and helicopters and ATGMs, yet they simply continued doing the same thing. The attacks in the Kherson area were very good examples of banging a head against the wall.
If I have more firepower than you, ability to feed it and detection to utilize it effectively. I have potential to cause more damage, while denying the other side the ability to user even their smaller amount of firepower. Remember that this is an artillery war, at least 65 % of casualties are from artillery, Russia has even according to western media and Arestovich 10:1 advantage.

Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 10:38 utc | 475

@ Chicago Bob | May 17 2023 10:34 utc | 492
—
There was a big spike in Raytheon volume after the attack but the price didn’t move much. I’m old enough to remember specialists buying Dow Chemical after Bhopal.

Posted by: too scents | May 17 2023 10:40 utc | 476

@PeterAu #486
Na they are sellers “turns out if you stack them 4 deep they work …. buy 3 more”.
Besides that it’s Mob protection, “You better buy air defense, I would hate to see this place bombed Tuesday at noon”

Posted by: OohCanada | May 17 2023 10:42 utc | 477

@unimperator
Please remind me of all previous conflicts of all previous versions of the russian state *didn’t* suffer much higher losses despite having more men and firepower.

Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 17 2023 10:44 utc | 478

@ Ing. Smrkovsky | May 17 2023 10:44 utc | 500
—
History began 5 years ago.

Posted by: too scents | May 17 2023 10:50 utc | 479

karlof1 | 87: “The missile volleys look like [..] emptying the clip using auto while not hitting any actual targets”
Indeed – was it panicked shooting by the NATO operators suddenly staring death in the face? Or Ukie self-sabotage depleting their ammo in order to shorten the war and perhaps saving their lives?
RF | 465: “The operators of the Patriot battery deliberately emptied it’s arsenal to reduce the amount of damage [..] after a successful strike.”
Another possibility, but would that realistically change anything? Are the operators near the missiles the ones that control launches?
ostro | 43: “This war is about depleting all the Soviet war equipment [..] and to prove that NATO armament is more or less useless..”
That makes sense too. As this war in a strictly short-sighted military view isn’t existential for the US, MIC financial calculations will still rank above military logic. Emptying the coffers sooner justifies big restocking orders sooner, and as you suggest provides the rationale for ordering the newer better kit.
Looking around the entire West, shameless stealing and extracting as much money as possible before the impending “Great Reset” seems to be the priority of all western elites now.
PavewayIV | 219 and 237:
Great to see you back! Thanks for your comments, always much appreciated.

Posted by: Leser | May 17 2023 10:56 utc | 480

To clear matters up, no I am not the person who previously posted under various permutations of “Zanon” and was clearly a troll.
An amusing troll, or so I found him. So I took this moniker and rather like it.
A poster up the thread made an excellent suggestion to use a one-way hash of a secret pass phrase as a way to verify that a post is the authentic author.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 17 2023 10:59 utc | 481

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 17 2023 10:37 utc | 496
>The people about me believe the propaganda media no matter how farcical it becomes. Its like they had some sort of lobotomy at birth to remove critical thinking.
Ultimate purpose of the mind is to increase bodily pleasure and decrease bodily pain. In natural conditions, there is a tight feedback loop between physical reality and pleasure/pain. For example, when you jump off a cliff because you don’t believe in gravity, you immediately suffer a big increase in pain. Whereas under modern conditions, the feedback is often indirect, because most of life (like this MOA forum) is just manipulation of words and other symbols detached from physical reality.
In modern conditions, if you regurgitate propaganda, you get a pay raise, which allows you to increase pleasure and reduce pain in all sorts of ways. Challenge the propaganda, and you lose your job and pleasure rapidly declines and pain increases. The mind adapts to these modern circumstances by defining reality as whatever propaganda ministers say is reality. rlReality is what works, and if saying 2+2=5 brings positive results, then 2+2=5 is reality. At least until you get back to natural conditions, where thinking 2+2=5 leads to disaster.

Posted by: Revelo | May 17 2023 10:59 utc | 482

Why do you think this is impossible?
Posted by: Konami | May 17 2023 9:06 utc | 468
Why?
1. Because I smell a rat.
2. Because the US and the UK and NATO would have to want the same thing (and they don’t. They want a forever war).
3. Because this group of so-called truce-makers have been saying exactly THE FKN OPPOSITE THING for 14 months, ie “fight fight fight”.
4. Because, Zelensky’s ego would resist it to the death. He thinks he’s Churchill, remember.
5. Because, if (theoretically) Zelensky stepped down, who TF would become any kind of replacement for him.
Enough reasons?

Posted by: The Dolphin | May 17 2023 11:05 utc | 483

In Japan there is an expression, hito no fundoshi de sumé o toru which means fighting in someone else’s loincloth. In other words, not having the capability to fight for yourself Is the US fighting in Ukraine’s loincloth — or is it the other way around. In any case, NATO is attempting what John Helmer calls “imitation offensives’, which simply attrit its forces, already attrited in places like Artemovsk, thanks to Prigozhin’s theater that plays to NATO wishful thinking .
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/prigozhin-and-war-theater
You will notice that the RF is shooting down the UAF’s few remaining Su24’s at an alarming rate . These are the main vehicles for launching Storm Shadow missiles which the RF is also shooting down. And soon Kiev will have no AD left.
In the meantime, the West is bankrupting itself, and overextending just as Japan did.
Helmer’s article here: https://johnhelmer.org/the-imitation-offensive/

Posted by: julianmacfarlane | May 17 2023 11:10 utc | 484

Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 17 2023 10:44 utc | 500
Russia had an effective counter-artillery campaign, much more powerful and accurate radars which neutralized Ukrainian artillery some months ago. They may still have it. Ukraine did not.
Russia has very effective strike drones neutralizing Ukraine artillery and radars and air defense systems. Ukraine does not.
Russia has proven and effective air defense and EW capable of neutralizing most of Ukraine’s drones, Himars rockets and HARM missiles. Ukraine does not. They’re really missing all the BUK and S-300 now.
Russia has effective glide bombs and in greater quantities, enough to hit all parts of the front line daily. Ukraine has nothing of the sorts, their carriers need to worry every time they try to lob a Shadow storm or HARM missiles.
Contrary to what Zelensky claims, Russia does not drag people off the streets in forced recruitments. Ukraine does, gives them a week or two training and off to Bakhmut.
Most of Ukrainian strikes seem to hit civilian targets in Donbass. That also means that Ukraine is spending a proportion of their resources to items which don’t contribute to winning, only terrorism. Russia does not bomb cities but does pinpoint strikes, like in Kiev a few days ago.
Everything is stacked against Nato. I would like to hear any advantages they have. Maybe they have some more surveillance satellites, and some more AWACs, and they have more possibilities to figure out deployments etc.
Will it save the day? Probably not.

Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2023 11:13 utc | 485

@ MFB | May 17 2023 9:32 utc | 474
Thanks for your update.
What I think is that US will try to blackmail RSA by tightening RSA’s AGOA status (the African Growth and Opportunity Act), where there might be some economic loss for RSA if they do not play along.
That can be rectified by intensifying activity in BRICS markets, but the USA intent is hostile.
USA imports platinum that accounts to almost 50% of total USA imports from RSA. The rest is rather trivial stuff as textile and apparel, some mechanical stuff and automotive spare parts. However, the USA is still advertised as an important trading partner.
China overshadows it by far and firmly holds a prime position there, sure thing.
The question is how Ramaphosa is going to play with the USA, simultaneously balancing its rising important role within the BRICS?
As for weapons – true, there is nothing that Russia really needs from RSA, except maybe Casspirs and Marouders.
Chechens have some Marouders and RF Armed Forces also some of those. But those are not really weapons, however useful that stuff it is or might be. Especially good for traversing mine strewn fields of Donbass.
Apparently there was some order of non-disclosed goods from 2019 that Russia managed to pick up now.
Still, there is no tangible proof at all about any weapons or anything at all in that direction as it is aggressively put by US Ambassador.
Of course, Cyril is unimpressed.
Also, he is very busy avoiding questions such as:
Where did $4 millions come from, mr. Limpopo Sofa?
I think it is good for RSA to step forward onto the international diplomacy stage, being the prime African carrier of Putin’s peace message to NATO via Ukraine.
Although the real RSA role is very “twyfelagtige” there, since Chinese are already involved there as a main player.
To me, it all looks like as buying the time before the main global conflict, sadly.

Posted by: whirlX | May 17 2023 11:22 utc | 486

Peter @ 496, Revelo @ 504
You two are on to something very real. My favorite example is a friend of 55 years, quite intelligent, unusually well informed as he does have a little access to sources and players. When Russiagate started he flatly disbelieved it, it was preposterous. The real world does not operate that way. Many of the main actors were obvious scumbags. But he was surrounded by Democrats.
By early 2017 he abandoned his own ability at critical thinking and joined the herd. The Durham revelations make no difference whatever. The narrative is all powerful. Social pressure is all powerful. And he has removed any memory of once laughing at the peeing prostitutes story.
Right now and back to on topic with Ukraine — The most reticent supporters of the Ukraine folly I encounter are recent arrivals from Ukraine. Everyone else expects imminent victory, followed by a war crimes tribunal for Putin, dismemberment of the Russian Fedeeration, then on to war with China. Sober, serious, educated people believe all of that.

Posted by: oldhippie | May 17 2023 11:27 utc | 487

@Revelo | May 17 2023 10:59 utc | 504
Thanks for that post. I always look for explanations to understand reality, and this was a good contribution. It sounds much like the theory of Cognitive Dissonance (without claiming any expertise).

Posted by: Norwegian | May 17 2023 11:27 utc | 488

There was a big spike in Raytheon volume after the attack but the price didn’t move much. I’m old enough to remember specialists buying Dow Chemical after Bhopal.
Posted by: too scents | May 17 2023 10:40 utc | 498
That’s amazing! Seeing 15 years into the future! The Union Carbide chemical leak in Bhopal was 1984. Dow Chemical takeover of Union Carbide was 1999……pure market genius!

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | May 17 2023 11:29 utc | 489

Several commentators including Mercouris, Radika Desal and Hudson suggest that Zelinski was wearing Nazi signs when he met the Pope, after searching I find him with the Ukrainian trident…
How is he a Nazi? Thanks

Posted by: Le Catalan | May 17 2023 11:30 utc | 490

Re: Le Catalan | May 17 2023 11:30 utc | 512
Not the direct answer you are looking for, but the fact is, while visiting Germany, the symbol Zelensky displayed was the Ukraine flag, no the trident. Displaying Nazi symbols in Germany is forbiden by national law.

Posted by: Antonio Ferrao | May 17 2023 11:34 utc | 491

The symbol Zelensky had on his sweatshirt was the emblem of the WWII fascist Bandera regime. It’s slightly different. As you know Bandera forces murdered hundreds of thousands of civilians and were zealous concentration camp guards.
Zelensky’s right hand guy – Melyk, infamously defended Bandera in Interview on German TV calling Bandera a Freedom Fighter.

Posted by: Exile | May 17 2023 11:41 utc | 492

@ Le Catalan | May 17 2023 11:30 utc | 512
As far as I know, the trident was/is also the emblem of the ‘more moderate’ part of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, Andrej Atanasovich Melnyk’s OUN-M (moderate as opposed to Bandera’s OUN-B, which ran with the black and red).

Posted by: Katharina | May 17 2023 11:42 utc | 493

Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann is a joke. She was a publisher’s rep. visiting booksellers before she got into politics.
https://tinyurl.com/btycxy9x
https://tinyurl.com/2xx7zv25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otcv7RZw1j8
She has NO idea that Germany does not fly F-16s and cannot service them – and that Germany is technically in international law in a state of war with Russia for the third time since 1914……..
There is no definition by which Germany and NATO are not Co-Belligerents – the only thing lacking is Russia to respond to the provocations.
It is not for this stupid old woman to decide if Germany is a Co-Belligerent it is for Russia to decide

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 17 2023 11:44 utc | 494

Does anyone know if that awful Melnyk guy of today has any relation with Andrej Atanasovich Melnyk of the OUN? That would explain his enchantment with Stepan Bandera.

Posted by: Katharina | May 17 2023 11:46 utc | 495

Revelo | May 17 2023 10:59 utc | 504
A thoughtful comment and good.
“Ultimate purpose of the mind is to increase bodily pleasure and decrease bodily pain. In natural conditions, there is a tight feedback loop between physical reality and pleasure/pain. For example, when you jump off a cliff because you don’t believe in gravity, you immediately suffer a big increase in pain. Whereas under modern conditions, the feedback is often indirect, because most of life (like this MOA forum) is just manipulation of words and other symbols detached from physical reality.”
I am not sure about that paragraph. “(like this MOA forum)”. I have not been in combat but have lived a life. I have shot for a living at one point and watched through the scope as the top of the skull flies six meters into the air. Watching the war in Syria, the video of a headchopper cut in half by his own suicide belt his mouth moving and people just standing around videoing him. That young woman and child in the Donbass.
AP running articles on Ukraine Buk systems on the frontlines in the weeks before MH 17 was shot down.
I get visited by some tattooed clown wearing a police uniform. He was as dumb as dog shit. Just a tattooed punk. Anglo democracy.
Many here are milder than me ande come from different walks of life, but certainly just as genuine. Much trash and treasure to be found here. I keep coming back for the treasure.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 17 2023 11:46 utc | 496

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marie-Agnes_Strack-Zimmermann
Strack-Zimmermann studied journalism, political science and German language and literature at the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU) and graduated with a Master of Arts degree. In 1986, she received her doctorate at the LMU with a thesis entitled Bilder aus Amerika: eine zeitungswissenschaftliche Studie über die USA-Berichterstattung im Zweiten Deutschen Fernsehen (ZDF) (Images from America: a newspaper science study on US reporting on ZDF).
From 1988 to 2008 Strack-Zimmermann worked for the medium-sized Nuremberg youth book publisher Tessloff. Later she was a freelance publishing house representative.

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 17 2023 11:46 utc | 497

Merci…
Katharina, Exil, Antonio Ferrao.

Posted by: Le Catalan | May 17 2023 11:52 utc | 498

Getting a PhD in watching TV news – now that’s a lightweight

Posted by: Exile | May 17 2023 11:54 utc | 499

unimperator @ 507
Yes, Ukraine uses its scarce longrange weapons primarily for hitting civilian targets. That has been the case since the beginning.Simple reason for this. Zelensky’s government is primarily the production crew of his old television comedy. They know nothing of military matters. And don’t care. They do know showmanship. Flashy attacks on civilians are showmanship.
It is surprising that so few have noticed this when it has been plain for so long. Ukraine cannot hope to win, or even have an effect, if it focuses on PR and pays no attention to the Russian military. What Ukrine does get for its efforts is more cash from Washington.

Posted by: oldhippie | May 17 2023 11:56 utc | 500

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