Ukraine – Air Defense Lessons (Updated)

May 16, 2023

Updated below

This is factual:

Patriot Missiles Won’t Save Ukraine – National Interest – May 9, 2023

Patriot systems are limited to pinpoint defense of major assets and are designed to operate in tandem with air defenses engaging targets at higher and lower altitudes. Without these additions, Patriot will have too many threats to engage and the result will either be porous coverage that doesn’t protect its defended assets, or coverage that quickly subsides when Patriot runs out of interceptors.

Moreover, Patriot systems are themselves vulnerable. Operating a Patriot radar system gives away its location, making it an open target for Russian attacks. This means that Patriot is not a one-stop-shop for defending Ukraine’s military assets or its people.

Those facts were proven last night.

War Monitor @WarMonitors – 1:23 UTC · May 16, 2023

⚡️I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but after careful review of this video, it appears that the air defence battery (most likely patriot) tried to save itself, but failed. It most probably got toasted.
Embedded video

bigger

Those were expensive two minutes for the 'West':

Fennec_Radar @RadarFennec – 1:45 UTC · May 16, 2023

I counted 30 Patriot PAC-3 MSE launches here.
The FY2024 costs of these per missile is about $$5,275,000
That was $158,250,000 fired in about two minutes. And as we see, the battery or something else likely got blown up. So it failed in its mission.
Embedded video

This though is likely not true. Kinzhals are simply too fast to be hit by any of Ukraine's air defenses:

Defense of Ukraine @DefenceU – 6:40 UTC · May 16, 2023

Last night, russian terrorists attacked Ukraine with:
– 6 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
– 9 Kalibr missiles
– 3 ground-launched missiles
– drones

ALL TARGETS SHOT DOWN.
Glory to the Ukrainian Air Forces!
We are grateful to our partner states for strengthening our air defense capabilities.

The casualty numbers in today's clobber report by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation may be a bit exaggerated but the general operational facts are usually true:

The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation launched a combined attack with long-range precision-guided air- and sea-based weapons against the AFU units, as well as depots of ammunition, weapons and military equipment supplied by Western countries.

The goal of the attack has been reached. All the assigned targets have been neutralised.

U.S.-manufactured Patriot surface-to-air missile system has been struck by Kinnzhal hypersonic glide vehicle in Kiev.
…
Fighter Aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces have shot down Su-24 and Su-25 aircraft of Ukrainian Air Force near Varvarovka and Krasnoarmeysk (Donetsk People's Republic).

Air defence forces intercepted seven Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles, three HARM anti-radar missiles and seven HIMARS multiple-launch rocket system projectiles.

Air defence facilities have shot down 22 unmanned aerial vehicles close to Ivanovka and Yevgenovka (Donetsk People's Republic), Topolyovka (Lugansk People's Republic), Inzhenernoye, Blagoveshchenka (Zaporpzhye region), and Krynki (Kherson region).

Ukraine does not have an integrated air defense that can attack all air targets at all levels. Russia though has such an integrated system of systems. It makes for a huge difference.

Updated – 16:30 UTC:

U.S. confirms hit on Patriot system:

Alex Marquardt @MarquardtA – 16:23 UTC · May 16, 2023

A Patriot system was likely damaged but not destroyed by a Russian missile barrage Monday night, a US official tells @NatashaBertrand. US is still assessing the damage which to determine whether the system needs to be pulled back entirely or be repaired by the Ukrainians.

Posted by b on May 16, 2023 at 13:47 UTC | Permalink

Comments

abc/NBC/CBS/CNN all reporting today ‘headlines’ of
“Russia strikes Kyev”
The word “strikes”
defined as a verb,
‘hit forcibly and deliberately with one’s hand or a weapon or other implement’
defined as a noun,
‘a sudden attack, typically a military one’
This is something new, seeing msm saying this, and also admitting this happened. The wording of clickbait headlines is approved, and the timing significant I’d imagine.

Posted by: Thomas G Franklin | May 16 2023 16:59 utc | 101

Posted by: Ed | May 16 2023 16:49 utc | 94
Mordor strenuously denies claims that a Nazgûl rider and it’s fell beast was lost over Kiev, claiming all nine returned safely to Barad-dur; however, the Mouth of Sauron refused to deny claims that Smaug has been seriously injured by the volley of missiles.

Posted by: Milites | May 16 2023 16:59 utc | 102

I am a bit sceptical that the certain destruction of Patriot units, as is seen on the two videos available, is done with Kinzhal.
As I mentioned before, maybe mentioning Kinzhal by RF MoD was just for the show-off and a cynical sting to the West.
The other possibility is that Kinzhal is used on something else, but nobody has a video of it.
I mean, someone here mentioned already that explosions were too small. I agree, unless it happened really far, far away. Videos done at night might be deceiving.
For all the sceptics and NAFO freaks doubting that RF will mill on until NATO, USA, UK, EU and Ukraine succumb to a total capitulation I recommend a this video.
A channel host does great job in explaining the Russian missile varieties, tech, and a doctrine.
The last few minutes are just paid promotion, but the rest is cool.
While this video is also interesting, if the Ukrainian offensive ever commences, but deals more with the tech and Western components (“chips out of washing machines”) in RF’s weapons.
RF can sustain this war and amazing missile missions for a really, really long time while delivering a pile of pain and horrors to the future “Re-Combinated West”.

Posted by: whirlX | May 16 2023 17:01 utc | 103

Noam A. Larkey | May 16 2023 16:37 utc | 88
*** so launching missiles at a major population center is not intended to kill civilians, but only to make a political statement? Why the heck don’t they just drop leaflets instead?***
The population of Donbas could ask your NATO paymasters to answer that….
Except why bother, since historical and present conduct shows very clearly that the US-empire and its servants do deliberately aim to kill or maim lots of non-combatants even when there are military targets they could hit instead.

Posted by: Cynic | May 16 2023 17:01 utc | 104

Cynic no. 80
🤣😂🤣😂 Good one.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | May 16 2023 17:02 utc | 105

Of course NATO has an interest in aiding Ukraine in maintaining the integrity of its territory. But I do not see how you can twist things to make them out to be the aggressor here.
But that is a pointless discussion on this site.
Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | May 16 2023 16:47 utc | 91
Would you have a source proving that Russia attacked the territory of a NATO country?
If not: what businnes does a DEFENSE ALLIANCE have in the conflict between two neighbours?
The UK, the US, Germany, France etc. thinking it is the right thing to do helping a country under attack? Absolutely fine.
A DEFENSE ALLIANCE getting out of control and dragging all of its members into an armed conflict to …. Achieve what? World Peace? Weaken Russia? Helping someone who is not a member?
NATO has no business in Ukraine, or even supporting it.

Posted by: Marvin | May 16 2023 17:03 utc | 106

@Noam A Larkey
Yanukovich was the last legitimately elected leader of ukraine. Ukraine is being held hostage by usurpers, and putin is going to head shot the terrorists holding Ukraine hostage.

Posted by: UWDude | May 16 2023 17:03 utc | 107

Whatever it was, it didn’t leave a trail during its terminal phase, which means it was a drone or a glide munition.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | May 16 2023 16:18 utc | 73
I think the trail is at launch. And the camera isn’t guaranteed to capture anything, only if a frame is recorded exactly when the object is in view and the shutter speed lets you see it.
And why do you expect a large explosion from a Kinzhal? There’s no need for explosives on surface targets. If they really shot a Kinzhal at a Patriot it was for demonstrative purposes, not that it needed one. Or it was for something else, under it. And no one has confirmed that the video is the correct one, the hit may be in another location

Posted by: rk | May 16 2023 17:09 utc | 108

NATO uses precision weapons to only hit true military targets, like Afghan wedding parties and medicines sans frontieres facilities. Putin uses them on innocent depleted uranium stockpiles and patriot batteries. Of course the russian disinfo bots here are quite callous to the tragedies felt by the close family members of these shells and batteries. Think of all those DU rounds children, you monsters!

Posted by: UWDude | May 16 2023 17:15 utc | 109

On the day the British depleted uranium stored were blasted, the prevailing wind in the area were blowing north-northwest, so the dust cloud blew over western Ukraine toward eastern Poland (just about over toward Warsaw) and a bit into western Belarus.
DU is heavy, so it would fall relatively quickly, so it’s hard to say how far a significant level would have spread. Any that reached the Baltic would be carried by surface currents past the Kaliningrad sargasso and come to rest off the Lithuania/Latvia headland.
Supplying this material to the conflict was criminal-level stupidity by Britain. I hope I am alive to see what historians make of this period of inconceivably bizarre and evil choices by European ‘leaders’.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | May 16 2023 17:16 utc | 110

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/europe/kyiv-russian-missile-attack-intl-hnk/index.html
Interesting but a bit too exaggerated. Or maybe a lot too exaggerated. We’ll see tonight if the rest of the US MSM is willing to run with the story?
Regardless, it’s too big to be ignored, when it’s going to be touted by both sides as the factor that calls off all bets.

Posted by: Up North | May 16 2023 17:20 utc | 111

I think the trail is at launch. And the camera isn’t guaranteed to capture anything, only if a frame is recorded exactly when the object is in view and the shutter speed lets you see it.
And why do you expect a large explosion from a Kinzhal? There’s no need for explosives on surface targets. If they really shot a Kinzhal at a Patriot it was for demonstrative purposes, not that it needed one. Or it was for something else, under it. And no one has confirmed that the video is the correct one, the hit may be in another location
Posted by: rk | May 16 2023 17:09 utc | 108
.
:
.
Correct !
And this explosion is not that small !
Don’t forget the destination was in the middle of the city!
Target destroyed without full charge of explosives!
.
By the way, again on German TV “Ukraine shot down 6 Kinzals”
But the reporter in Moscow just said in an interview “This report from Kiev is doubtful”
Kinzals are not (not yet interceptable according to US military experts.
The words of the reporter in Moscow (reporter from Welt TV = Germany)

Posted by: mo3.1 | May 16 2023 17:21 utc | 112

Posted by: Brendan | May 16 2023 16:46 utc | 90
Ah, rather like the German criteria for a destroyed AFV in WW2 was that there was no chance of repair, if there was it would be classified as damaged; however, unrealistic and unlikely that repair might be. Enemy tanks, however, were claimed destroyed if they satisfied far more generous criteria, which if applied to a German vehicle would only generate a damaged result.
So, if the Ukrainians can theoretically repair the battery it’s recorded as damaged, even though it will likely be out of action for the remainder of the SMO. Lies, damned lies and statistics, but useful for administering a spoonful of copium to soothe fretful nerves.

Posted by: Milites | May 16 2023 17:22 utc | 113

I am quite familiar with this technique. It is used to write references for poor employees, viz. “No one does the job like Ted!” or “Fred’s mastery of the equipment amazed us.”. Neither comment actually asserts that Ted or Fred did their jobs well.
Posted by: FrankDrakman | May 16 2023 15:48 utc | 59

This reminds me of the book (which I have not read but I understand is quite entertaining) Lexicon of Intentionally Ambiguous Recommendations by Robert J. Thornton.

Posted by: David Levin | May 16 2023 17:23 utc | 114

The main target was the US Patriot anti-aircraft missile system itself. As well as some military-industrial facilities and command posts, ammunition depots and fuel bases.
The main thing is that the “Patriot” could not shoot down our Kinzhal, which eventually destroyed the American battery. As for our other means of attack, the Ukrainian air defense system managed to shoot down only about 10% of our Kalibr missiles and Geran drones. 90% of them reached the goal.
So far, there is information that the sky over Kiev was covered by 1 Patriot battery with 16 missiles. Other batteries are only put into combat by the Americans. It is expected that there will be at least 4 such batteries.
It took one “Kinzhal”. The auxiliary vehicles and units included in the American battery finished off by Calibers.
This tactic was “prompted” to us by the Americans themselves. First wave were Geranium drones. They were spotted by American radars and thus gave away their positions. Next came anti-radar missiles that destroyed enemy radars. And after that, Caliber and Dagger flew over the already blind Patriot and other objects.
About the cost of the Kinzhal – there is information that it can cost from 30 to 70 million rubles, depending on the modification. But one Patriot missile is estimated at about $ 4 million – 4-8 times more expensive than our hypersonic ammunition. And the Ukrainians (or Americans?) fired from 16 to 30 missiles at targets. Well, the destroyed Patriot battery itself costs from $ 0.5 to 1 billion – this also depends on its modification.
Yes, our air defense specialists did not immediately manage to find an antidote for the British Storm Shadow, which in recent days have been hitting Lugansk. As is the case with the American Himars. Now, on some days, we shoot dozens of Himars from the sky. The same thing happened with Storm Shadow. We hit these 7 missiles with the help of Buk-3M, Tor, Pantsir-S and an electronic warfare system that forced foreign missiles to go far from the target.
By the way, Storm Shadow is a very expensive ammunition. The cost of 1 rocket – Storm $ 1.3 million.

Viktor Baranets kp.ru

Posted by: ostro | May 16 2023 17:24 utc | 115

According to one of the NATO officers who provided headquarters support for counterattacks on the flanks of the Bakhmut group on May 12, Ukraine suffered one of the biggest losses since 2014 – 1,725 people were killed.
The strikes of the 2nd Azov brigade on the southern flank and two mechanized brigades and one motorized rifle battalion on the northern flank were stopped, and the losses amounted to one regiment.
The rapid withdrawal of Russian troops to the plain and the shelling of Russian tanks, artillery and Russian aircraft on the line of defense prepared at high altitudes led to heavy losses.
A large number of foreign mercenaries and far-right groups are stuck in Bakhmut. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have been trying for several days to ease the pressure on the group so that it can be withdrawn, but Russia nullifies these attempts with a massive bombardment.
Not sure where they got this info from to be honest… But I’ll post it anyway
-Masno/TG

Posted by: unimperator | May 16 2023 17:33 utc | 116

@112 Depends on how you look at it. Since the Kinzhals were most certainly kaput after hitting the Patriot system, one might say the Patriot system destroyed them. Voila, a glorious victory for Ukraine!
(Wow! I didn’t know I had such stunning journalistic talents. I’ll send my resume to Spiegel at once.)

Posted by: Katharina | May 16 2023 17:33 utc | 117

https://t.me/intelslava/47768
Missile and target exposure, listen.

Posted by: la bouteille | May 16 2023 17:34 utc | 118

Iron Dome ready for deployment in Ukraine, says US general

Ukraine on Monday criticized Israel for sending high-ranking Foreign Ministry diplomats to Moscow. Jerusalem is “having business as usual with the Russian war criminals,” a Ukrainian senior diplomatic official said.
Last week, in a Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces session about missile-defense issues, Sen. Angus King (Independent-Maine) asked why Iron Dome had not been deployed in Ukraine.
“We helped pay for it,” he said. “We sent something like $3 billion [every year since 1976?] to Israel to develop it… Wouldn’t this be a very important resource for the Ukrainians since their principal problem [mmmm, no] right now is missile defense?”

ahahahahaha

Posted by: sln2002 | May 16 2023 17:36 utc | 119

Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | May 16 2023 16:47 utc | 91
Of course NATO has an interest in aiding Ukraine in maintaining the integrity of its territory. But I do not see how you can twist things to make them out to be the aggressor here.
The Nato sell weapons with credit and borrow cash,
The want ALL this money back.
Every cent

Posted by: theo | May 16 2023 17:39 utc | 120

Katharina | May 16 2023 17:33 utc | 118
“I didn’t know I had such stunning journalistic talents.”
Not bad at all. You could have added that this was a last desperate throw of the dice by Putin before he runs out of missiles.

Posted by: dh | May 16 2023 17:40 utc | 121

“The strong do not need to boast about accomplishments they did not achieve. That is behavior of the weak. The Ukraine is far weaker than you think.”
Posted by: William Gruff | May 16 2023 15:38 utc | 52
——
:)- Succinctly distilled reality, as always. Russia’s escalation management is superb and is proceeding apace with its more crucial geoeconomic campaign. That ultimately governs military ops in Ukraine — as Russia gradually slackens the hangman’s rope for US/NATO. It’s quite something to witness this global revolution.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | May 16 2023 17:43 utc | 122

Posted by: nook | May 16 2023 17:43 utc | 123

All right, all right, you got one Balrog, but you lost Gandalf. You call that a win?

Posted by: Bemildred | May 16 2023 17:44 utc | 124

@ Katharina | May 16 2023 17:33 utc | 118
you can go to the front of the class, lol…

Posted by: james | May 16 2023 17:46 utc | 125

@HansJuergen “Ukr. is heavily weakend, but not as weak as we think. To think that Ukr is weaker than they actually are, is positive for Ukr.”
Isn’t it possible that the Russians are doing the same thing?

Posted by: ian | May 16 2023 17:46 utc | 126

I told y’all that the US wasn’t sending the good stuff.

Posted by: BroncoBilly | May 16 2023 17:48 utc | 127

Katharina | May 16 2023 17:33 utc | 118–
Good! It can also be said that the glorious Ukrainian ground destroyed the kinzhals upon their impact. The Ukrainian earth thus has a 100% intercept rate of success for all Russian missiles.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 16 2023 17:49 utc | 128

Standard operation from ukie propagandists: Make up exaggerated numbers of attacking missiles, throw in some ham fisted agitprop about “Iranian” drones, then claim they were all shot down. Close with a nazi slogan. Mission accomplished! They even claim to have shot down an s 400 air defense missile over Kiiieeeyyyeevvv. What the actual…..
Posted by: nook | May 16 2023 17:43 utc
Yes, but the facts will leak out soon and the US MSM can’t afford to be on the wrong side of the story. The most probable news tonight will be a story that grants partial success by Russia and partial success by the Ukraine shooting down ‘unspecified’ missiles.
By now, nobody really cares how the Ukraine side spins the story. Their propagandists are their own worst enemies.

Posted by: Up North | May 16 2023 17:51 utc | 129

And of course, we’re only discussing one of the targets Russia aimed at last night. What of the others; any news about them?

Posted by: karlof1 | May 16 2023 17:51 utc | 130

If you use Kinshal as a bunker buster tool, and assume the Patriot command center dwelled in some such resort, you will see not much effect on video. Mind you, Russia does know every inch of Kiev infrastructure. They built it, they paid it. Some time ago.

Posted by: MorePain4Cakes | May 16 2023 17:52 utc | 131

Repaired by the Ukrainians? I’m sure.

Posted by: Gerard | May 16 2023 17:53 utc | 132

One poster has the salient point here(sorry forgot the name and number while reading)
But another large strike tonight at kiev near the government buildings would be an excellent test of who is bluffing here.
I’d bet though that since ukraine had claimed 6 khinzals versus just the one someone lied about before suggests they got hurt and want to cover it with saying the other guy got it even worse, like a common fist fight.
So I’m thinking the patriots didn’t just fail but ukraine got them destroyed very quickly. The “Biden” administration is going to need a much bigger kickback next time since they get such poor performance here.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 16 2023 17:53 utc | 133

@91 no russia didn’t do those things except for one. And that’s the decolonization of russia,well that’s a us idea.
It has been explicitly written that Russia is an illegitimate state because of its imperial roots. Deeply ironic for that to come from the US, but hey this isn’t about reasoned debate.
There is also continual pressure to reduce russias nuclear power(energy and weapons) as well as to overwhelm it in the high ground of space.
There’s no doubt in my mind the nato(us + europe) wants to destroy russia and stop it from developing space and weapons independently that can challenge them.
Unfortunately some Russians also believe this to be good as well,and here we are in some sort of SMO?

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 16 2023 17:59 utc | 134

PATRIOT SYSTEMS: The Patriot systems obviously will fail to protect Ukraine from missile attacks. Yet, the Patriot System, like many other Western military systems, is quite effective at continuing to escalate the Russo/Ukrainian war.
Since the West has no offramp and can not allow Russia to survive and since Russia no longer trusts the West, especially the USA and the UK, the escalation ends in nuclear war.
When either side launches against the other, it is best to neither be in the USA nor Russia. If you are now within any of the USA territories take a long vacation outside of her borders when it looks like Russia will take and secure the remainder of the Donbas. Such may very well save your life.

Posted by: young | May 16 2023 17:59 utc | 135

And of course, we’re only discussing one of the targets Russia aimed at last night. What of the others; any news about them?
Posted by: karlof1 | May 16 2023 17:51 utc
Yes, the US/Ukraine celebrations are notably absent so far, which certainly does indicate that shooting down 6 has become a bridge too far for the Ukraine propagandists.

Posted by: Up North | May 16 2023 18:00 utc | 136

Lots of new names here. Arguing with each other.

Posted by: marcjf | May 16 2023 18:01 utc | 137

Like the S-400, the Patriot Missile Defense System has many components that are in separate locations. These include radar, the command unit, and the missile batteries.
Missile batteries are more easily replaced than the main radar or command unit. If you can take out the radar, then then the rest of the unit becomes useless.

Posted by: Rhinoskerous | May 16 2023 18:01 utc | 138

Does this mean that Zaluzhniy has resurfaced?

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | May 16 2023 18:02 utc | 139

@ theo | May 16 2023 17:39 utc | 121
The Nato sell weapons with credit and borrow cash,
The want ALL this money back.
Every cent
That is not happening in this century – and possibly never ever.
Not one cent will be counted as a ROI out of this SMO.
Just a huge loss.
But Russians will come for their money. They always do.

Posted by: whirlX | May 16 2023 18:03 utc | 140

Bakhmut looks to be on its last legs. Once it falls, queue the MI6 radiological false flag detonation.

Posted by: Rhinoskerous | May 16 2023 18:09 utc | 141

Since the West has no offramp and can not allow Russia to survive and since Russia no longer trusts the West, especially the USA and the UK, the escalation ends in nuclear war.
When either side launches against the other, it is best to neither be in the USA nor Russia.
Posted by: young | May 16 2023 17:59 utc | 136

Why do you think, it would be Russia to launch the first nuke?
How about North Korea nuke attacking the US…?

Posted by: ostro | May 16 2023 18:11 utc | 142

I suspect US doesn’t care if Patriots work. Ukraine owes money.
One way or another the “Owners” will get their money.A year, 10, 20 or 100, but they will not forget.

Posted by: Tom_12 | May 16 2023 18:12 utc | 143

I woke up awhile ago and turned on the TV. My habit is to scan through all of national news channels. No mention of any major missile attack in Ukraine. Lots of coverage of an alleged demonstration by “White Supremacists” in Washington DC during Biden’s speech condemning white supremacists at Howard University. I noticed that a few of the white supremacists neglected to conceal their FBI badges. Then I come here to discover a major missile battle in Ukraine. One might think that the American government was lying to the American people and the major news networks were complicit.

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 16 2023 18:13 utc | 144

German TV news tonight – not one mention of The Ukraine …hmm

Posted by: Exile | May 16 2023 18:13 utc | 145

US Capitol – flag at half-mast at least.

Posted by: MorePain4Cakes | May 16 2023 18:15 utc | 146

The Nato sell weapons with credit and borrow cash,
The want ALL this money back.
Every cent
That is not happening in this century – and possibly never ever.
Not one cent will be counted as a ROI out of this SMO.
Just a huge loss.
But Russians will come for their money. They always do.
Posted by: whirlX | May 16 2023 18:03 utc
America doesn’t invest in a war and then not see a ROI. Even Iraq produced that for them. The defeat of Russia could/would be the largest ROI that America will ever receive out of one of their wars.
And failure by America would/will be the biggest loss ever incurred by America, and the final big loss for empire, as the torch is passed on to Russia/China, and the Brics.

Posted by: Up North | May 16 2023 18:18 utc | 147

But a US official later told CNN that a US-made Patriot system was likely damaged, but not destroyed, as a result of Monday’s Russian missile barrage.
The US is still assessing to what degree the system was damaged, the official said, adding that will determine whether the system needs to be pulled back entirely or simply repaired on the spot by the Ukrainians.

CNN sort of saying something… 🙂

Posted by: ostro | May 16 2023 18:20 utc | 148

Posted by: karlof1 | May 16 2023 16:31 utc | 83
Absolutely, precision targeting. The advancements this past year exceed anything seen in modern warfare done by RF, accuracy to inches. Even the myth their running out of ammo when accuracy is phenomenal! The other couch potatoes don’t realize, is accuracy of moving-targets also fine-tuning with advancements so “shoot & move”
the age old tactic of mil war, is going bye-bye like a rotten manual.
Other spectators need remember history, Russia always has a secret warfare machine waiting for war. Hiding. A massive beast of total control and devastation, let’s never see it, only wonder what it may be. They never show the prize fighter!
Also, why couldn’t it be a drone, that’s even worse.
after they shoot all the missiles, what is there to protect the place. So sending in a small drone, is doable. Maybe the RF missle was some advanced decoy lookalike on radar to freakout any operator and ENT in a drone to finish the job. Inexpensive and successful.
After certain systems eliminated, higher altitude bombing runs take place. Strategy.
Is there a plan to evacuate the city? Setup shelters outside so not used as human shields. Why Ukraine using human shields and not evacuating elders first?
Intel, assume many countries have data on old locations, the heat signatures over the winter provided the confirmation.
Also using civilian rail lines for military transportation seems illegal.
carpathian seems a break away region.

Posted by: Thomas G Franklin | May 16 2023 18:24 utc | 149

“A Patriot system was likely damaged but not destroyed by a Russian missile barrage Monday night, a US official tells @NatashaBertrand. US is still assessing the damage which to determine whether the system needs to be pulled back entirely or be repaired by the Ukrainians.”
Jesus Christ… The yanks making out the ukroids make decisions. Russia would have whacked the radar which is the heart and soul of an AD system.
Interesting that Rus MoD used the term glide vehicle.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 16 2023 18:25 utc | 150

Posted by: whirlX | May 16 2023 18:03 utc | 141
But Russians will come for their money. They always do
Yes, sure, maybe the Russians have already the money( 80-90% ).
Explanation.
When money has to be transferred from Russia to the West ( e.g. from foreign companies), it is paid out from the blocked accounts.
I think thatswhy only 35 billion were found

Posted by: theo | May 16 2023 18:28 utc | 151

Flag is being flown upside down…
Posted by: David | May 16 2023 18:21 utc | 150
Add this to the star spangled banner half-mast, and you see real grief.

Posted by: MorePain4Cakes | May 16 2023 18:30 utc | 152

Posted by: Thomas G Franklin | May 16 2023 16:10 utc | 70
Ukraine ist using civilians as cover for military, officials, …
The security of the civilians/citizen is not in focus in Ukraine.
They dont defend urban settlements, they use those as fortified cover. The preparations for the conflict have not been started yesterday. It was already a war since 2014, eine Ukies with GaliCIA backgrond and there Western Partners in deine against the citizen of Ukraine. Till 2014 the majority die not want to Join NATO, even when they took part in the assault in iraq in 2003.

Posted by: 600w | May 16 2023 18:33 utc | 153

reply to 152
You’re right.
Let’s throw in Zaluzhny and Syrski. Are they alive? Are they functioning? Or just fed up with feeding a meat grinder as per Zelensky’s orders?
Is it possible that Zelensky wants to be overthrown but not killed? And that’s why he doesn’t want to go back? “Stage a coup while I’m gone, guys, please”.

Posted by: Eighthman | May 16 2023 18:33 utc | 154

David | May 16 2023 18:21 utc | 150–
The flag isn’t at half-staff. Current Live-stream shows all flags at full-staff. Conclusion, photoshop.
In other related news (sorry for being OT), Elon Musk has declared George Soros to be an Anti-Human as RT reports:

Elon Musk used his Twitter platform to attack fundraiser George Soros on Tuesday, claiming that the prominent Democratic Party financier “hates humanity,” and comparing him to comic-book super villain Magneto.
In a tweet which has been viewed more than 20 million times, Musk wrote without explanation that “Soros reminds me of Magneto” – the mutant comic book anti-hero of the X-Men series. Musk elaborated on Soros when pressed by journalist Brian Krassenstein, claiming the Hungarian-American businessman was a frequent right-wing punching bag because some people object to his “good intentions” as “they disagree with his political affiliations.”
“You assume they are good intentions,” Musk responded on Twitter early on Tuesday. “They are not. He wants to erode the very fabric of civilization. Soros hates humanity.” The SpaceX and Tesla CEO offered no further evidence to substantiate his claim.

IMO, that’s more explosive than the hit on Kiev.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 16 2023 18:36 utc | 155

Sorry for the repost, but there we’re some Tech Problems while Posting.
Posted by: Thomas G Franklin | May 16 2023 16:10 utc | 70
Ukraine ist using civilians as cover for military, officials, …
The security of the civilians/citizen is not in focus in Ukraine.
They dont defend urban settlements, they use those as fortified cover. The preparations for the conflict have not been started yesterday. It was already a war since 2014, some Ukies with GaliCIA backgrond and there Western Partners in crime against the citizen of Ukraine. Till 2014 the majority did not want to Join NATO, even when they took part in the assault in iraq in 2003.

Posted by: 600w | May 16 2023 18:37 utc | 156

Posted by: karlof1 | May 16 2023 18:36 utc | 158
Fixed after 10 minutes.

Posted by: MorePain4Cakes | May 16 2023 18:39 utc | 157

Posted by: Eighthman | May 16 2023 18:33 utc | 157
Zelensky is most likely looking a way to disappear while still retaining the accumulated wealth got from dealings by the US war party (sellout Ukraine and its citizens).

Posted by: unimperator | May 16 2023 18:39 utc | 158

Russia claimed that it destroyed a Patriot system during Tuesday’s attack on Kyiv. Ukraine declined to comment. The BBC cannot independently verify the claims made by either country.
BBC is sort of saying something… 🙂

Posted by: ostro | May 16 2023 18:39 utc | 159

The White House just had a press conference. General Kirby the vacuum cleaner salesman acknowledged that the attack occurred and that the Patriot system had been damaged. It seems that it is undetermined if the Ukrainians can repair it themselves.
Kirby should be selling vacuum cleaners.

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | May 16 2023 18:47 utc | 160

Yes… “damaged”. The price label was found.

Posted by: rk | May 16 2023 18:48 utc | 161

MorePain4Cakes @ 147

US Capitol – flag at half-mast at least.

Saw that on TG, I couldn’t find anything about it, of course google censorship but it would be impossible to keep quiet about. You would think it would be all over twitter. Security around the Capitol must be more extreme then ever, access to the dome must be allowed only to very few workers, it would be very hard to do. Bet you a beer’s it’s Photoshop.
I think a lot of things that start on TG and social media is Photoshop, I think that Khmelnytsky gamma ray graph is Photoshop. Maybe it’s more fun this way, welcome to 2023.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 16 2023 18:49 utc | 162

karlof1 | May 16 2023 18:36 utc | 158
Hardly OT. Jewish nazi. Very similar to the transvestite in green T-shirt hugging everyone.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 16 2023 18:53 utc | 163

so what’s the score
in the war?
military reality
is humbling.
even if the west is not.

Posted by: Dingo | May 16 2023 18:54 utc | 164

German TV news tonight – not one mention of The Ukraine …hmm
Posted by: Exile | May 16 2023 18:13 utc | 146
.
.
.
That’s NOT true!
They cheered over 6 shot down Kinzal!
6!!!!!
Whereby (Welt TV) Reporter Live in Moscow immediately doubted this report!
And contradicted that!

Posted by: mo3.1 | May 16 2023 18:54 utc | 165

Lots going on, too much for me to keep up with, so can someone remind me exactly whose spring offensive we are supposed to be covering here? Shouldn’t ̣Crimea have been ‘liberated’ by now???
Oh, and BTW, is General Zaluzhny still AWOL?

Posted by: West of England Andy | May 16 2023 18:54 utc | 166

If you look closely, you can almost see the NATO-trained recruit smashing his panic button over and over.

Posted by: FVK | May 16 2023 18:56 utc | 167

Thomas G Franklin | May 16 2023 18:24 utc | 151–
Thanks for your reply. Many months ago during the siege of Mariupol I wrote that there’s no longer anywhere to hide–not even inside the interiors of buildings as they can be penetrated by thermal imaging to disclose where infantrymen are cowering. That was later confirmed by this superb article published by Simplicius back in February. That the impact of that and more is revolutionary is an understatement. When I served the US Army from 1979-1985, I was with the independent 519th EW/Sigint Company that worked more for NSA than USA stationed at Moffet Field in the heart of Silicon Valley. If I were to enlist today, I’d choose the USN since it’s in dry dock most of the time, and IMO I’d have a better chance of surviving. The casualty rates of Ukie infantry are one reason why they’re obfuscated so much as such truth tends to greatly lessen recruitment for ground pounders.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 16 2023 18:58 utc | 168

German TV news tonight – not one mention of The Ukraine …hmm
Posted by: Exile | May 16 2023 18:13 utc | 146
And it’s less than a month since Germany reportedthat it had delivered a Patriot system to Ukraine.That was possibly their one that was destroyed.
The only stories in the German media today about that subject are about how the Patriot destroyed the hypersonic Kinshal, not the other way round. Of course, no details are given, even though there are plenty of German and other western journalists in Kiev.

Posted by: Brendan | May 16 2023 18:59 utc | 169

@Noam A Larkey
The democratically elected president of Ukraine was ousted in a violent coup supported and encouraged (see Nuland and her cakes) by the west.
Given that most of the elected president’s votes came from east Ukraine (Donbas) it is perfectly reasonable to expect those people to reject the new government which was foisted upon them.
However, kiev thought it necessary to label them “terrorists” and attacked the areas of east ukraine after they demanded autonomy.These attacks continued for 8 years with many, many civilians killed by kiev rockets, tank shells and sniper fire.
The brave and courageous east ukrainians however, are a hardy bunch and fought the kiev forces to a standstill, even forcing them back on the battlefield.
In central and west ukraine openly nazi, anti russian policies were adopted whilst, with western arms, kiev built up a force of 130,000 soldiers on the borders of Donetsk and Lugansk. They were clearly on a path to invade the republics. The OSCE monitoring group reported a four fold increase in shelling from the kiev forces towards the republics in the 3 days before Russia invaded in a humanitarian mission to save the lives of the russian speaking population.
Simple as.

Posted by: HERMIUS | May 16 2023 18:59 utc | 170

Whatever the story of the Patriot getting hit or not it had to launch 30 extremly expensive missiles to defend itself from a single strike. Bet the Americans are going to pull these back to protect only NATO assets in Ukraine, not that it will help but breaking all your toys on Christmas day would have gotten me slapped. Ukraine sure blows through a lot of shit really, really fast, a sign of an unprofessional military. They’re fighting their asses though, can’t hold that against them, good thing it’s a motley army.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 16 2023 19:02 utc | 171

Noam A. Larkey | May 16 2023 16:47 utc | 91
You funny guy. You should audition for yuk yuks.
Have some kool-aid.

Posted by: angelo | May 16 2023 19:05 utc | 172

“The “nest” has been completely cleared, the last house remains under the control of the enemy. In order to completely take Bakhmut, there was a quarter below Yubileynaya Street and a small piece of the private sector. And Bakhmut will be completely taken under control by the Wagner PMC units, ”Prigozhin’s press service in Telegram quotes an audio comment.

Posted by: Charles | May 16 2023 19:05 utc | 173

karlof1 | May 16 2023 18:58 utc | 171
I watched video of that. Somebody watching a screen would give targeting info to a tank or IFV. They would duck out from behind cover and fire. Game over.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 16 2023 19:05 utc | 174

Patriot system destroyed 7 TIE fighters, 15 Cylon raiders, 2 Death Stars, 3 Gorts,
Posted by: andy | May 16 2023 14:39 utc | 23
Oh no, not the Gorts! They were the intelligent lifeform.

Posted by: Drapetomaniac | May 16 2023 19:05 utc | 175

And, what would happen today night for the Ukraine?

Posted by: Ostro | May 16 2023 19:06 utc | 176

… “… Ukraine’s air defense successfully took out nine Kalibr missiles and three land-based missiles, including both S-400 and Iskander-M missiles, the Air Force said.”
…
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | May 16 2023 16:19 utc | 74
Ukrainian AD absolutely did not shoot down an S-400 interceptor missile.
Lying now so habitual as to fail minimal plausibility criteria.

Posted by: anon2020 | May 16 2023 19:07 utc | 177

Posted by: karlof1 | May 16 2023 18:36 utc | 158
I think a lot of things that start on TG and social media is Photoshop, I think that Khmelnytsky gamma ray graph is Photoshop. Maybe it’s more fun this way, welcome to 2023.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 16 2023 18:49 utc | 165
No country for old men. 😉

Posted by: MorePain4Cakes | May 16 2023 19:10 utc | 178

ostro | May 16 2023 18:20 utc | 149
I assume it has had its eye knocked out. But like the black Knight in Monty Python, it is but a flesh wound.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 16 2023 19:11 utc | 179

Brendan @ 172
The German establishment is scared shitless now. They recognize the attack in Khmelnytskyi for what it is, expansion of the war into the Polish-Belarus-Western Ukrainian theater with a nuclear dimension.

Posted by: Angie | May 16 2023 19:12 utc | 180

Oh, and now we know why everyone was so happy to “give” i.e. dump their Patriots off on Ukraine, get rid of a dink and spend and grift trillions on a newer, better dink.
I think it was Zamorano on a current Jimmy Dore about the Khmelnytsky explosion and the $500 mil in weapons gone up in a mushroom cloud says, “there goes our health care…”

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 16 2023 19:14 utc | 181

To Noam at #19. Russia waged a successful war of attrition. Google the definition. The Pentagon leaks admitted 7 dead ukrainians to one dead Russian. That’s demilitarization, the stated goal of Phase 1 of the Russian SMO. Phase 2, NATO embarrassment phase is now underway, Patriots v. Kinzhals.

Posted by: Willow | May 16 2023 19:14 utc | 182

Mr Larky at 91
Pointless discussion is the reason you are here. Why knock it? It pays your bills.

Posted by: casca | May 16 2023 19:14 utc | 183

The video has a ‘National Geographic’ feel to it. The Patriot seems like a hunted animal, firing off interceptors with increasing desperation, hitting a couple of decoys before it is silenced with an ominous thud.

Posted by: Browser | May 16 2023 19:16 utc | 184

Angie @ 183

The German establishment is scared shitless now. They recognize the attack in Khmelnytskyi for what it is, expansion of the war into the Polish-Belarus-Western Ukrainian theater with a nuclear dimension.

Yup.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 16 2023 19:16 utc | 185

Sergei Shoigu commented on six flying Kinzhals allegedly shot down last night over Kiev:
The Russian Federation did not launch as many Kinzhals as they allegedly shot down,
The number of these “Ukrainian interceptions” is three times more than we launch,
And with the type of missiles they are always wrong. That’s why they don’t ever get a hit.

Posted by: ostro | May 16 2023 19:17 utc | 186

LightYearsFromHome | May 16 2023 19:14 utc | 184
US health care…. weapons and bio-weapons.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 16 2023 19:18 utc | 187

And our media helps them get away with it.
Posted by: Mark Thomason | May 16 2023 15:07 utc | 34
“Our” media is “their” media.

Posted by: Drapetomaniac | May 16 2023 19:19 utc | 188

@ AG | 99
A dream you can sell.
A negative fact not.
_______
The matching sales mantra is:
Instill the fear!
Provide the hope!
Sell the dream!

Posted by: anon1 | May 16 2023 19:20 utc | 189

Posted by: whirlX | May 16 2023 17:01 utc | 103
Thanks for that, what’s shown does seem a little light for a Kinzhal impact. The MoD lie you propose is also plausible =)
That guy in the @Millennium7HistoryTech YouTube channel has an idiosyncratic presentation style but his vidz are often very informative.

Posted by: anon2020 | May 16 2023 19:23 utc | 190

Has anyone given a thought that you might just be making MoreMalarkey’s day by responding to every piece of drivel he posts? Why he might be getting gold stars for all those responses.

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | May 16 2023 19:23 utc | 191

Angie @ 183
The German establishment is scared shitless now. They recognize the attack in Khmelnytskyi for what it is, expansion of the war into the Polish-Belarus-Western Ukrainian theater with a nuclear dimension.
Yup.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 16 2023 19:16 utc | 188
.
.
Yes, their ass goes!
But only because the escalation is pushed further and further WITHOUT showing any success!
And excited To put it mildly, these Germans are, because they know where the next battlefield will be… Poland / Germany !!!
Because this risk of escalation seems to turn into the opposite but not to the desired success against Russia!
As the saying goes: backfires

Posted by: mo3.1 | May 16 2023 19:23 utc | 192

I am just a bit concerned about why would top EU leadership want to meet in Iceland?
Posted by: whirlX | May 16 2023 15:00 utc | 30
To update the provisions in their bomb shelters in New Zealand?

Posted by: Drapetomaniac | May 16 2023 19:26 utc | 193

the us managed to deflect from the disastrous failure of its Afghanistan policy and war by provoking Russia into striking Ukraine. i don’t see how it will be able to deflect from a far more disastrous failure in Ukraine. I never seen Ukrainian flags anymore, i rarely see posts anymore on hobby related blogs about how terrible Russia is. despite vast control of the propaganda apparatus, the narrative isn’t working as well anymore.

Posted by: pretzelattack | May 16 2023 19:27 utc | 194

I am somewhat confused about the attempts to begin peace dialog, by what seem like well intended parties –
* Clearly NATO is one of the interested parties, but has no interest in dialog of any kind – other than terms of surrender of Russia which of course goes no where.
* Russia’s objective/requirement involves concessions by NATO – again NATO not ready for constructive dialog. NATO will be wanting to place peace-keepers.
* Ukraine is probably starting to soften their position a bit, but likely would only attempt to disrupt any dialog and really is
Ukraine even part of the discussion at this point.
Perhaps it would present an opportunity for Russia to present it’s position in a venue that would be heard by general public.
It just seems really premature.

Posted by: jared | May 16 2023 19:28 utc | 195

@ LightYearsFromHome | May 16 2023 19:16 utc | 188
Angie @ 183
The German establishment is scared shitless now. They recognize the attack in Khmelnytskyi for what it is, expansion of the war into the Polish-Belarus-Western Ukrainian theater with a nuclear dimension.
Yup.
And they are suddenly aware that they are also part of the conflict, taken blindly to those highs by a second-tier, low grade politicians.
So, bull’s eye painted all over ‘Schland, again. Not fun.

Posted by: whirlX | May 16 2023 19:28 utc | 196

Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 16 2023 15:20 utc | 41
Interesting DW report. The DW reporter is dressed like Zelensky in in army green pull over. Talk about psychological capture.

Posted by: Erelis | May 16 2023 19:28 utc | 197

Explain to me the logic of sending a dummy missile. It would require every component of the real thing, minus explosives. Which, it would seem to me, to be the cheapest component of said missile?

Posted by: RicK | May 16 2023 19:30 utc | 198

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | May 16 2023 19:23 utc | 194
yeah, I have no idea how they are paid and if they get bonuses for some metric on number of discussions derailed.

Posted by: pretzelattack | May 16 2023 19:30 utc | 199

As a gay Hindu, I take great offence at some of the posts here at MoA regarding members of the broader gay community. The LGBTQ movement is largely an American phenomena and not reflective of the millions of gay Indians who proudly support their nation’s larger cultural insitutions and heritage. I do not expect any apologies but I will demand your respect.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | May 16 2023 19:30 utc | 200

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