The Reconnaissance Strike Complex
The Reconnaissance Strike Complex
Lester Grau and Charles Bartles - May 30, 2018
The Soviet Union, and now Russia, have long worked on the development of twin concepts for the detection and assured destruction of high-value targets in near-real time. The Reconnaissance Strike Complex (разведивательно-ударный комплех-RYK) was designed for the coordinated employment of high-precision, long-range weapons linked to real-time intelligence data and precise targeting provided to a fused intelligence and fire-direction center. The RYK functioned at operational depths using surface-to-surface missile systems and aircraft-delivered “smart” munitions.
It took some time for the Russian reconnaissance-strike-complex to improve its reaction time. But it now seems to be quite fast.
First the reconnaissance element:
The Ukrainian Air Force Formed A New Strike Squadron—By Arming Reconnaissance Bombers With British Cruise Missiles
Forbes - May 28, 2023
Working closely with the United Kingdom, the Ukrainian air force has equipped at least some of the recon section—which flies two-seat, supersonic Sukhoi Su-24MRs from the regiment’s base in western Ukraine—with British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
...
All the pre-war bombers and recon planes—as many as 16 of the former and nine of the latter—belonged to the 7th Bomber Regiment at Starokostiantyniv air base.In a year and three months, the regiment has written off at least 17 Su-24s. Victims of Russian air-defense missiles, mostly.
...
It’s that simplicity [of the conversion] that apparently allowed the Ukrainian air force and its British supporters to form what amounts to a new long-range strike squadron—eight or more Storm Shadow-armed Su-24MRs—inside the battle-battered 7th Bomber Regiment ... in just three months’ time.
After reading yesterday's Forbes piece about Storm Shadow launching airplanes stationed at the Starokostiantyniv air base the commanders at the operation center of the Russian Special Military Operation, decided to have them destroyed.
The strike:
Russia Hits Military Facility In West Ukraine, Damaging Planes
AFP - May 29, 2023
A Russian strike hit a military facility in western Ukraine, damaging five planes, while Kyiv repelled another large volley of overnight air strikes, authorities said Monday.
...
In the western city of Khmelnytsky regional authorities said Russian troops attacked a military facility overnight.In a rare admission of the damage, they said "five aircraft have been put out of action."
Work was underway to localise fires at fuel and lubricant warehouses, the statement said.
The Starokostiantyniv air base is some 40 kilometers north of Khmelnytsky.
Posted by b on May 29, 2023 at 14:45 UTC | Permalink
next page »Do Su-24 pilots survive the attack that downs the plane? Can they eject at low altitude? Is 404 losing mostly planes or pilots?
Posted by: KlutchKargo | May 29 2023 14:59 utc | 2
Wouldn't it be sweet if there was a delegation of Brutish MPs on site at the time?
Posted by: Figleaf23 | May 29 2023 15:01 utc | 3
Posted by: Figleaf23 | May 29 2023 15:01 utc | 3
Yeah, that would be great. Too bad Boris Johnson and Sunak weren't there for a photo op. Can only hope that most of the storm shadow missiles were destroyed.
Posted by: ctiger | May 29 2023 15:07 utc | 4
The West was amazed in 2015, when Russia launched Kalibr missiles at Syrian terror bases from the Caspian Sea, a distance of almost 2000 km. I was more amazed by the fact that Russia provided video footage of the missiles hitting their targets. I wondered, if Russia has air assets that close, why cannot they just drop a dumb bomb?
P.S. - b, please fix the date of the linked article Reconnaissance Strike Complex. It is May 30, 2018, not "May 30108".
Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 29 2023 15:20 utc | 5
thanks b...
one wonders how russia gets assess or info to these details? is the west stupid enough to broadcast it publicly?? what gives?
Posted by: james | May 29 2023 15:20 utc | 6
@ rumod report | May 29 2023 15:13 utc | 5
shocking if true... i can't see how the west can keep this up... thanks...
Posted by: james | May 29 2023 15:23 utc | 7
Russia is building a well-tuned military machine as NATO discovers it is a threadbare hotchpotch of discrete weapons systems no longer potent because they have been utilised and exposed
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 29 2023 15:30 utc | 8
su 24 are 2seat airplanes. pilot and weapon operator. 2nd seat could be vacationing raf or vendor employee
integrating a weapon on an airplane requires engineering on both the airplane and the weapon!
software for both are written, and hardware is altered.
then test and accept.
done on site by nato contracts
all nato‘integration’ are direct support!
Posted by: paddy | May 29 2023 15:31 utc | 9
twitter quote from Oleksii Reznikov may 28th quoted in the top link..
Today we celebrate #KyivDay!
Kyiv, a city of free and brave people, has become a symbol of Ukraine’s unbreakable spirit and the Kremlin’s failed imperial ambitions.
i wonder if he ever thinks about the usa's failed imperial ambitions??? he is living it...
wikipedia page on him.. he is Minister of Defence of Ukraine since 4 November 2021
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksii_Reznikov
Posted by: james | May 29 2023 15:34 utc | 10
5 out of 25 - that's not too much in military terms. The strike did not "have them destroyed" - only just a little scratched. The russian strikes clearly have plenty of room for improvement.
Posted by: White Gandalf | May 29 2023 15:36 utc | 11
Gandalf seems to be all in for the Ukrainian propaganda. Good for you! I prefer to use logic and healthy cynicism.
Yes, I am sure the paint of the hit jets was just 'scratched' and that the Ukrainians shot down 40 of 30 missiles fired using their ancient Patriot air defense systems. Totally believable.
Cope or propaganda? Doesn't even matter.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 29 2023 15:57 utc | 12
5 out of 25 - that's not too much in military terms. The strike did not "have them destroyed" - only just a little scratched. The russian strikes clearly have plenty of room for improvement.
Posted by: White Gandalf | May 29 2023 15:36 utc | 12
Read the first article more closely. Of the 25 prewar amount they had of the 2 seat su -24, they had already lost 17. They just lost 5 more in one strike. They are down to three, which is way less than a squadron.
This alone is s reason why the Ukes need the F-16, as it is a very versatile weapons platform. However, unlike the Soviet era planes, it cannot operate as well from temporary air fields, so it will lose it effectiveness if they have to disburse them wider so the Russian can’t destroy multiple planes in one strike.
Posted by: drsmith | May 29 2023 15:59 utc | 13
From this photo, it looks like there were once a lot more of them.
Posted by: Awe | May 29 2023 16:02 utc | 14
gandalf was just trying to magic away some inconvenient facts.
Posted by: pretzelattack | May 29 2023 16:04 utc | 15
@White Gandalf | May 29 2023 15:36 utc | 12
@Doctor Eleven | May 29 2023 15:57 utc | 13
Doctor Eleven, I am not sure whether our Saruman wannabe has a comprehension problem, an arithmetic problem, or both
"16 of the former and nine of the latter—belonged to the 7th Bomber Regiment at Starokostiantyniv air base."
16 + 9 = 25 airframes
"In a year and three months, the regiment has written off at least 17 Su-24s. Victims of Russian air-defense missiles, mostly."
25 - 17 = 8 airframes.
Depending on who you consider more likely to be accurate, and all the evidence to date shows that the Ukrainians lie about everything all the time, either "5" or "all the assigned targets" were "destroyed" or "damaged"which and I note that "damaged" can mean "destroyed", which might have included 5 to 8 aircraft.
So the Ukrainian 7th Bomber Regiment has between
8 - 8 = 0 airframes
And
8 - 5 = 3 airframes
remaining. A far cry from the unsupported assertion of "made 5 out of 25" made by "White Gandalf".
Posted by: Hermit | May 29 2023 16:19 utc | 16
losing 20% in one day? pftt, it's only a flesh would, as the Black Knight might say.
Posted by: pretzelattack | May 29 2023 16:19 utc | 17
james | May 29 2023 15:20 utc | 7--
Russia has long prided its ability to gain vital intel deep behind the lines. Not quite a year ago I posted this short article on the topic, "Putin's Speech on the Centenary of Illegal Intelligence", the SVR being the agency responsible. I note the article I linked to is now 404, but you can click the link to Putin's speech then click to see the 4 photos to see the specific monument for that agency outside their compound, which IMO is impressive. As I note in my preamble, Putin's speech is important and still resonates today.
The attack on that airbase was a long time coming. I'd expect it to get another visit very soon.
@ karlof1..
thanks karl... just out the door.. will look when i get back.. much appreciated!
Posted by: james | May 29 2023 16:34 utc | 19
Posted by: White Gandalf | May 29 2023 15:36 utc | 12
I hope that my kids are reading their Maths exam questions more carefully than you Gandalf.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | May 29 2023 16:36 utc | 20
"the strike" and ummm reputational damage to current orders and future sales
Why Indian Air Force Should Be Worried By The "Failure" Of British Storm Shadow
Posted by: sln2002 | May 29 2023 16:36 utc | 21
"After reading yesterday's Forbes piece about Storm Shadow launching airplanes stationed at the Starokostiantyniv air base the commanders at the operation center of the Russian Special Military Operation, decided to have them destroyed." Rich sarcasm.
Posted by: Rodrigo | May 29 2023 16:37 utc | 22
My comment is that the trolls are not hired based on their reading skills.
Posted by: morongobill | May 29 2023 16:38 utc | 23
An interesting summary of one of the key components of the RSC. https://jamestown.org/program/tracing-russias-path-to-network-centric-military-capability/
Posted by: Milites | May 29 2023 16:39 utc | 24
Posted by: White Gandalf | May 29 2023 15:36 utc | 12
White Gandalf.
Brown Moses...
Black Knight..
"Tis but a scratch!" ..
Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 29 2023 16:41 utc | 25
So reading this thread on the Su-24 math.
The Ukie airforce has more pilots than planes, right? So there are experienced pilots to be trained on F-16s, so not all F-16 pilots will be Natoes. Has the "block number" of the F-16s on offer been revealed for PR purposes? Some of the F-16s flying could be pretty old I think.
Posted by: klutchKargo | May 29 2023 16:51 utc | 26
Armed Forces Press
May 28, 2023
Russians May Use Tactical Nuclear Device In Ukraine In Coming Weeks
A trusted source within the Ukrainian national security establishment told Tsarizm that the Ukrainian leadership believes Russia is planning to use a tactical nuclear device in the Ukraine war in the coming weeks, as the West prepares for it’s ‘spring offensive’ to retake Crimea and Donbass, lost to Russian forces since 2014.
Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland recently reported stated the much-discussed offensive has been in the planning stages for five months.
Tsarizm has had a reporting team on the ground in Ukraine for a decade and we have been proven right on most early reporting that we decide to print. We don’t post clickbait.
More to come on this story.
Posted by: stranger | May 29 2023 16:58 utc | 27
“A trusted source within the Ukrainian national security establishment...”
Laughing too hard to read another word from that post.
Posted by: Dalit | May 29 2023 17:04 utc | 28
29 “A trusted source within the Ukrainian national security establishment...”
Zelensky's cousin or
One of Hunter's party pals still drawing a paycheck.
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | May 29 2023 17:14 utc | 29
The TrollTeam just cannot fathom that Russia is winning this war handily without going nuclear....they just have to.....gotta,gotta ......please.....don't wait!
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | May 29 2023 17:14 utc | 30
Just some vague lazy bankhol in London musings. Feel free to ignore.
Anyone who has been living in a cloud cuckoo land of believing the Russians and Chinese don’t know where exactly all the enemy bases and arms manufactories are has no idea of human intel on the ground. And actual covert ops. Think IRA but with a whole millions man army they represent! Scary hung? Never mind all the online stuff. And double never mind actual secret military technologies used in surveillance.
The only reason the proxy war is taking place and being used to grind up weapons is to stop the actual full ‘conventional’ war which natzos would lose in a relative blink, within their own borders. Which would force nuclear attack as a means of last ditch ‘defence’. I recall the use of nukes was about the only thing the UNSC agreed on in 2021 as the Rumble in Borrells Jungle was set up. With Ukrainians as the total pawns to be sacrificed with higher value natzos at the back.
The leak of Graham’s cowboy rancher hiring killers to see off the russkies by murder is quite a dead cat on the table moment! That clip can’t have just been filmed! It’s a clear throwing under the bus of Graham as his boys got smoked and there’s going to have to be a lot of room made at Arlington. There’s only so many soldiers shooting themselves on base stories you can tell.
Enough Rope a Dope. Russians are moving centre ring floating and stinging to a ko or surrender.
Posted by: DunGroanin | May 29 2023 17:16 utc | 31
Re: Awe | May 29 2023 16:02 utc
Going back over the sat-photos, these appear to have been parked out in the open since at least 2011. Unless they bring them out whenever the satellite goes over. Of course, there may be even more inside the hardened bunkers.
My guess is that these are probably mostly what we used to call "Christmas trees". Basically sources of spare parts. I understand that Ukraine inherited about 120 Su-24 aircraft from the Soviet Union so they'll be hard to maintain nowadays.
Posted by: Awe | May 29 2023 17:17 utc | 32
Google Earth timeline of Starokostiantyniv air base
@Awe | May 29 2023 16:02 utc | 15
From this photo, it looks like there were once a lot more of them.
Your satellite photo of the Starokostiantyniv air base is from May 2017. I count a total of 55 Su-24s in the open air. (24 in the northwest, 15 to the west and 16 in the southeast.) Some of the planes may not have been moved for years. There are also hardened bunkers on the eastern side of the base, but I see no activity anywhere near them.
Google Earth Pro has a newer image from May 2022. I count about 44 Su-24s. A third of the planes have been moved close to the hardened bunkers. Many of the bunkers have holes on their roofs, maybe a dozen crater in total in the area. One Su-24 has been destroyed. Two hangars or warehouses have also been destroyed. (One in the west, the other in the southeast.) Next to the later hangar is an arrangement of MiG-29s. Two of the MiGs lay on top of each other. I think I saw a video of this pileup on social media.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 29 2023 17:20 utc | 33
DEPRAVED: UK Army (Man from Belfast with decades of experience) Teaches Ukrainians How to Make Bømbs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mip6vsba_eE
UK Man training video from above. sorry.
Posted by: rmml | May 29 2023 17:25 utc | 35
Posted by: james | May 29 2023 15:20 utc | 7
It's worse than that, seems like the UK defense minister appears in a video clip bragging about the missiles supplied with a printed card of a SU24 plane retrofitted for the UK missiles delivery with the symbols of the Ukrainian airforce corps based on the base that was hit.
https://twitter.com/lentaruofficial/status/1663193539394633731
Posted by: Paco | May 29 2023 17:30 utc | 36
Lavrov in Kenya, presser with Q&A:
https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1872895/
Posted by: Paco | May 29 2023 17:33 utc | 37
@stranger | May 29 2023 16:58 utc | 28
Armed Forces Press - May 28, 2023Russians May Use Tactical Nuclear Device In Ukraine In Coming Weeks
Sounds like a perfect plan! A false-flag nuclear attack is just what is needed to get NATO to declare war on Russia after the Ukrainian counteroffensive fails.
The Western media will report two days of huge Ukrainian successes, and then KABOOM! Russia nuked our offensive. Attack Russia NOW!!!!!
Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 29 2023 17:37 utc | 38
Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 29 2023 17:20 utc | 34
All that Soviet inheritance gone to waste.
Posted by: Paco | May 29 2023 17:44 utc | 39
@awe
UA Airforce inherited some 2000+ military planes from the Sovietunion.
Just have a look on some older Wikipedia versions. Here (https://uk.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%96%D1%82%D1%80%D1%8F%D0%BD%D1%96_%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%B8_%D0%97%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%85_%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BB_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D0%B8&oldid=1935764), from 2008, UA Airforce still had 250 Su-24
Posted by: BG13 | May 29 2023 17:48 utc | 40
"To be honest, we don't know if American arms manufacturers are happy or not"
A Polish medium about Patriot missiles falling on Kiev, they figure more than 40% of a yearly production have gone to waste already.
Posted by: Paco | May 29 2023 17:55 utc | 41
39.
There is a (obvious, to form) terrying possibility they will try this as the aforementioned retard train ain't got brakes..damn autocorrect and thanks to my fellow misanthrope RSH this time I'm aware..
Russia is demonstrating a capabiity to defend itself effectively on multiple fronts. NATO can potentially prolong the war and turn it into a generalized nuclear exchange but they cannot 'win' by any definition they would recognize as such.
Russian autarky, alongside partnership with China deepens each day the situation is perpetuated while the Maerican vassal economies are in a slow motion state of collapse alongside the slowmo SMO.
Russia conventional military tech is looking a decade or more ahead if the West in many areas. Its not the hypersonics, though these render obsolete so many Western weapons like the vaunted aircraft carrier, it's a convergence of technologies and industry narrowly focused around winning wars instead of making money.
Hopefully..copefully.. at least somewhere alarm bells are going off to stop these...murderous evil imbeciles before they do something unthinkably and unspeakably evil and doom us all.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 29 2023 18:01 utc | 42
https://t.me/llordofwar/148295
According to Turkish sources, another Patriot battery was destroyed as a result of rocket attacks on Kyiv. Three Patriot batteries were sent to Ukraine, two of which were destroyed within a few weeks....
Thus, today there was probably a loss of at least another $2 billion, and the previous losses amounted to $5 billion.
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/32006
My spies from the Ukrainian command reported that 7 important military facilities were hit by Russian missiles in Kyiv, including an imported air defense installation.👉Russian Post
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/31981
In Kiev, Patriot SAMs were attacked near Zhulyany airport.The drone launch bases were also hit.
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/32057
Satellite images of the Zhuliany airfield showing arrivals at the position of the MIM-104 Patriot air defense system on the night of May 16. ....
Posted by: anon2020 | May 29 2023 18:01 utc | 43
Here another version, maybe Wallace is not alone, according to this TG post it was the Ukrainian defense minister who showed the postcard sent by Wallace, with the SU24 armed with the StormShadow or whatever its name is, plus the squadron emblem.
Posted by: Paco | May 29 2023 18:02 utc | 44
I might want to share with you something a bit "meta" about the war in Ukraine. It's a way I try to make sense and categorize of what happens. I hope you find it useful.
In my scheme i divide the Ukraine war in three geographical scopes:
1) a local scope (Ukraine vs Russia / ethnic conflict.)
2) European scope (Security Configuration / Russia vs NATO / EU unity)
3) the geopolitical scope: Who rules the world.
I imagine these as horizontal layers.
I further divide these layers transversely into 3 columns in "fighting means":
a) military,
b) economic (who sell what at what price to whom), and
c) diplomacy/alliances/polarity.
That leaves me with a 3 by 3 matrix which allows me to map any news bit I find credible .
An example: is this a war of aggression by Russia? on the local level: yes, provoked though; on European level: No, it's a defensive war against NATO; on the global level: looks like the Russians are fetching an opportunity to change the world.
All 9 squares have different interest groups, adversaries and actors. Example. in the economic war EU and US are allies in the European scope (EU |economic ; sanctions) but adversaries on the global|economic scope (Nordstream, IRA).
You can map how it's going for the various parties, or you can map which global companies have reasons to lobby/invest in which square and therefor promote the conflict. I sometimes map the escalation potential of the various parties in each field.
What is the use of this model? It reduces complexity and provides overviews. Models are a simplification of reality. But without a model we can not think.
Mind that the model itself is without bias or prediction-power; a neocon die hard transatlanticist would come to other conclusions than I do, but find the model equally useful.
According to my scheme; when people ask me about my gut feeling of the outcome my answer is 3 fold
a military victory for Russia in Ukraine,
a (very expensive! and long lasting!) cold war for Europe (NATO-Russia) and
a continuation of the conflict at global level
In my view the greatest achievement of the Russian Federation is the successful escalation of the European scope to the global scope. Especially in the global|economic field (de-dolarization) and the global|diplomacy field (BRICS, SCO, EAEU, proxy rebellion) the Russians are clearly scoring.
Given the assets the Russian Federation has in stock on all levels (military, economic and diplomatic) they don't seam to be surprised by the current situation.
I hope you find the model useful, it helps me to keep a clear head.
Posted by: San Vitale | May 29 2023 18:09 utc | 45
It’s got to work like this immediately, every time, everywhere, at all distances, because that’s the logical and uncontroversial endpoint of the automation and integration arms race. Second place gets to lose.
https://t.me/ukraine_watch/3387
As fighting goes on the modern warfare has stressed once more the importance of reconnaissance. 🇷🇺🇺🇦Russian drone has spotted a Ukrainian infiltrator claimed to be a messenger for the AFU. He was mortared by Russian troops immediately. ⚔️
After adjusting fire a direct artillery hit followed. 💥
Russian troops were near the area of shelling so they had to retreat after being compromised. 🔱
The battle for Bakhmut continued ...
Posted by: anon2020 | May 29 2023 18:11 utc | 46
klutchKargo | May 29 2023 16:51 utc | 27
Has the "block number" of the F-16s on offer been revealed for PR purposes? Some of the F-16s flying could be pretty old I think.
Dutuch KLu will probably be the first in line to offer its ageing fleet of F-16 AM Block 20 MLU. They also have a couple of twin-crews intended for delivery of US nuclear bomb from Volkel military base.
Those are really old and worn out, but those can still fly.
They have about 20+ but not much more.
Those will end up as one-way missile platform or mostly broken and no spares like Stryker, French stuff, German overly engineered and complicated and all the other trash West poured in.
Posted by: whirlX | May 29 2023 18:29 utc | 47
@ Petri Krohn | May 29 2023 17:20 utc | 34
I noticed the squished Su-24 in the May 22 photo (and the one with its tail sticking out of the bunker looks a bit sub-prime) - but not the two Mig-29s getting up close and personal. Maybe a result of this incident ?
Posted by: Awe | May 29 2023 18:52 utc | 49
It is more like Russia had started the offensive, rather than the Ukrainian 'counteroffensive'. Ukie//NATO military infrastructure is getting clobbered every night, now even in daytime. Which UKie/NATO military infrastructure is going to be hit today night, early morning? And, tomorrow late morning?
Posted by: ostro | May 29 2023 18:54 utc | 50
As things go more and more FUBAR in 404 more and more people will come out of the woodwork and help Russia in small and big ways. I still remember polls back in 2014 were 70% of the population wanted good relations with Russia and a sharing of the country between ethnic Russians and Ukrainians, they didn't just cease to exist they were unpersoned by the their state and the western media. But they are there.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 29 2023 18:55 utc | 51
If Nuland says Russia is getting ready to use tactical nukes, that means the US is planning a false flag to blame Russia. Wake up, EU, the US is going to send a radioactive cloud to poison you and your children and animals. Nuland knows which way the wind blows. With friends like that.....
Posted by: Willow | May 29 2023 18:58 utc | 52
Posted by: stranger | May 29 2023 16:58 utc | 28
> Armed Forces Press
> May 28, 2023
> Russians May Use Tactical Nuclear Device In Ukraine In Coming Weeks
Soviet nuclear doctrine never really believed in limited nuclear war as a viable concept like the Americans always seemed to do. Soviet leaders, correctly in my point of view, believed that any nuclear exchange would invariably lead to full escalation, and so, in the very strict scenarios where a first strike would be needed, they would go the way of a massive counter-force decapitation strike.
While modern Russian doctrine has evolved as a consequence of the introduction of highly precise short-range ballistic missiles in her arsenal, that allow the use of tactical nuclear weapons of relatively low yield against hardened military targets in a regional conflict in order to de-escalate the conflict, this is not something that applies to the current conflict, because Moscow doesn't see this conflict as a purely local conflict, but as a regional conflict that has the potential to escalate to a global conflict.
I don't see a scenario where Ukraine can force Russia to do a first strike, precisely because if you are going to escalate to nuclear against NATO, it is better to escalate all the way to a massive strategical attack.
What really worries me, but not much, would be if the Ukrainians and their masters decided to escalate to biological warfare against the homeland. But no, not even Victoria Nuland and their ilk can be THAT crazy.
Posted by: Marcos E | May 29 2023 19:00 utc | 53
Soviet nuclear doctrine never really believed in limited nuclear war as a viable concept like the Americans always seemed to do. Soviet leaders, correctly in my point of view, believed that any nuclear exchange would invariably lead to full escalation, and so, in the very strict scenarios where a first strike would be needed, they would go the way of a massive counter-force decapitation strike.
Posted by: Marcos E | May 29 2023 19:00 utc | 58
It's not that many years ago when Pentagon was envisioning war with Iran. They produced reports about adjusting small sized "tactical" nuclear bombs to "defeat" Iran in some of their war scenario.
US believes, and they have changed the nuclear doctrine accordingly - that they could use small nukes in limited wars. They believe nukes could be lobbed around like pancakes, if it achieves in defending US interests globally.
Russia until recently maintained its "mortal threat to nation state" doctrine and policy of never first strike, but I believe they too have changed their own doctrine to somewhat "lenient" after Biden administration changed theirs. I do think the most likely scenario in Ukraine is the ZNPP plant sabotage/shelling/destruction, or a UK/US produced dirty bomb (you could kind of regard the Khmelnitsky depot as a dirty bomb, too).
Posted by: unimperator | May 29 2023 19:16 utc | 54
Marcos E@58
What worries me is the NATO military exercise that begins soon. It is incredibly irresponsible for the imperialists to start flying large numbers of military aircraft and mobilising large formations of armour and infantry close to a war zone, in which they are deeply implicated.
I hope that I'm missing it but I have heard of no public outrage over this idiocy that could easily lead to nuclear war.
Posted by: bevin | May 29 2023 19:17 utc | 55
What worries me is the NATO military exercise that begins soon....
Posted by: bevin | May 29 2023 19:17 utc | 60
-------
Except some tough-talking politicos in the NATO countries, and maybe some of the paid soldiers, no one in those countries are ready to go to war with any country, especially against Russia. The Ukrainian type of mobilisation won't work in those countries. The natives are not that "patriotic" as their own politicians think. The politicians in the NATO countries are not that safe in their seats.
Posted by: ostro | May 29 2023 19:27 utc | 56
bevin @ 60
We in the west are living under wartime censorship though the war, unlike WW1 or WW2, is undeclared so the wartime censorship is undeclared. Who knows what the public knows or thinks, not that it matters much in wartime censorship.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 29 2023 19:32 utc | 57
Remember when russia got its strategic nuclear bombers attacked with a drone after leaving them outside after flying them back from a mission?
This sword cuts both ways and a full day won't cut it, unless that's just the delay between articles.
So what's the actual turn around time? Can they get a satellite/AI program to dispatch attack instructions directly to a strike unit in two minutes, two hours what?
Because sometimes targets of opportunity needs a decision cycle measured in minutes. That's where the interesting stuff is, like watch the delivery vehicle pull in and before they can complete checking the manifest something is en route.
That would be cool.
Also should be noted it's not going to be a convenient press release giving the information. For example it used to easy to see the results of russian missle strikes online until ukraine made an example of some dummys posting them for clicks. Now they say they get everything and virtually nothing comes out, online street cameras are turned off now.
So let's get real here this isn't going to be a good example.
Not B's fault though the fog of war is pretty opaque now.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 29 2023 19:47 utc | 58
@ ostro | May 29 2023 19:27 utc | 61
The natives are not that "patriotic" as their own politicians think.
Not yet, as they are still rich enough. Wait few years more of EU economic degradation and than ask the same question.
Never trust hungry barbarian from the North, Romans would say.
I think it is from Asterix and Obelix, a franco-italian cartoon around late 90s.
Posted by: whirlX | May 29 2023 19:57 utc | 59
bevin | May 29 2023 19:17 utc | 60
Nato military exercises
If I had to guess the Ukrainian offensive will commence either slightly before or after the Nato exercises start. My guess would be slightly before so NATO can choose how best to implement their exercises.
One logical reason for the nato exercises is they know Russia will have to fix military resources in the vicinity of the exercise. Russia has to have opposing defensive forces present just in case Nato does attack. Thus Nato will coordinate with the Ukrainians how best to conduct the exercises to best support their offensives. Expect surprises also from Nato, which will cause Russia to divert forces away from the fighting in Ukraine or to soft an area of the front where Ukraine wants to launch a secondary or primary effort.
Posted by: Jerr | May 29 2023 20:09 utc | 60
Not yet, as they are still rich enough. Wait few years more of EU economic degradation and than ask the same question.
Posted by: whirlX | May 29 2023 19:57 utc | 64
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It is not about being rich, or just having a bit of money, the natives of the NATO countries are not that patriotic to fight for their countries' politicos wants. Not even the people, who voted the politicos in won't fight for them. In the Ukraine, it is a civil war going on. For the people on the west of the Ukrainian border, Poles, Germans, Hungarians, Slovaks, Czechs and such like, the Ukrainians are just as bad as the Russians. As far as the the war is going on the Ukrainian 'territory', it's OK for them, but if that would fall over the Ukrainian borders, then it'd be a different question. They'd want the Ukraine to stop it and capitulate, or whatever, as far as the war stays there.
The Anglo-Saxons don't really understand that, the Eastern European mentality.
Posted by: ostro | May 29 2023 20:14 utc | 61
If I had to guess the Ukrainian offensive will commence either slightly before or after the Nato exercises start. My guess would be slightly before so NATO can choose how best to implement their exercises.
Posted by: Jerr | May 29 2023 20:09 utc | 65
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Have you noticed that there are nukes in Belarus? And, that Lukashenko invited others countries sto join the Russian-Belarussian Union to be under the nuclear umbrella?
There are now nukes right next to the so-called NATO borders...in Kaliningrad and in Belarus. And, right across the Black Sea.
Posted by: ostro | May 29 2023 20:24 utc | 62
In response to ostro@55,
This whole offense/defense cat & mouse game comes down to who commits their reserves first. Right now, both sides are on the defensive, trying to force their opponent into a sub-optimal move. Russia is degrading the Ukrainian offensive potential, which they can do indefinitely, putting Ukraine in a situation of use it or lose it. Ukraine can't do the same to Russia, but it's trying to provoke a forced Russian reaction with PR strikes designed to create public pressure.
If Russia gets provoked into committing their reserves first, Ukraine expects to be able to stall out the conflict for longer by gradually trading territory for more time and, subsequently, Western assistance. If Ukraine is forced to go on the offensive, Russia expects Ukrainian reserves to be rapidly depleted in the ensuing battle, which will leave Ukrainian defensive lines vulnerable and allow for rapid progress late summer & autumn. Neither scenario is particularly good for Ukraine, but the latter would make Russian efforts much more cost effective and could spell an early end to the Ukrainian theater in this conflict, while the former is likely to drag the conflict out for an additional year or two and necessitate further waves of mobilization in Russia.
Posted by: Skiffer | May 29 2023 20:31 utc | 63
Posted by: Jerr | May 29 2023 20:09 utc | 65
Probably correct. Nato exercises are definitely tailor made to work in conjunction and indirectly support the ukro attack. Mid of June will be definitely tensioned.
There's Air Defender (June 11th-22th) supposedly in Germany. There's also ARCTIC CHALLENGE (May 29th-June 9th) in Lulea Sweden, and Rovaniemi and Pirkkala, Finland which includes AWACS aircraft - in Finland. They are probing defenses in conjunction with events in Ukraine.
Posted by: unimperator | May 29 2023 20:34 utc | 64
Has anyone heard Zelensky saying something lately? BBC and CNN only mentions Budanov, and even calling him as general Budanov...
Posted by: ostro | May 29 2023 20:37 utc | 65
Posted by: Skiffer | May 29 2023 20:31 utc | 68
Even in Ukraine doesn't commit its forces to attack, they will gradually get weaker as glide bombs, rockets, artillery get lobbed on the front and rear of the front, and missiles get lobbed into fuel and ammo depots in the rear.
Hence it's possible that Ukraine is more like in a position of "use it or lose it" in terms of their coherent attack force, since it's dubious they could solve those issues. It might be the largest factor pressuring them to attack.
Posted by: unimperator | May 29 2023 20:41 utc | 66
written by ostro : "For the people living in the western part of the Ukrainian border, Poles, Germans, Hungarians, Slovaks, Czechs and the like, the Ukrainians are just as bad as the Russians."
Well, you are wrong if you want to judge us Hungarians like that! We have never confused the Ukrainians with the Russians, not the Russians who are persecuting the Hungarian minority living in their homeland in Transcarpathia for more than 1100 years, but the Ukrainians ! Just as during the Second World War, neither the Russians nor the soldiers of the Southern Group of the Ukrainian Army committed sexual violence against Hungarian women, children and grandmothers by hundreds of thousands (you mean hundreds of thousands!). These are animals! Those who have seen what they have done to the civilian population of Donbass since 2014 have no doubt that these are real Nazis who killed Poles and Jews in Volyn with such bestial cruelty that the SS Germans were disgusted by them ! Let me congratulate the people of the USA for supporting Nazis with such a pedigree wholeheartedly!
Posted by: Attila Flagellum Dei | May 29 2023 20:56 utc | 67
ostro | May 29 2023 20:24 utc | 67
Nukes are there but will only be used as a measure of last resort. That's because military operational research criteria called mini-max. Namely you want to minimize your maximum loss. That's what Russia has been doing with the go slow kill all advance on Bakhmut.
If Nato does something a nuclear response probably won't be even be considered.
For example, a tank gets stalled on the railroad tracks on the Suwalki corridor. Nato is out there waving for for the train to stop, soldiers are trying to push the tank off but the train can't stop in time. It hits the tank, reactive armor goes off, tank breaks in half, DU ammunition goes off, and the entire area in a 20 km radius is contaminated. Oh the humanity of it all. Lithuania then investigates and says the Suwalki corridor must be closed because of the environmental contamination , and that it will probably take 19 years to clean up.
Or it could be sometype of equipment malfunction by the nato airborne troops stationed in Tallin , causing an unpremeditated incursion along the Estonian-Russian border. The claim is Russian EW messed up Nato GPS signals causing them to go across the border by mistake, and now the equipment won't work because of a emp Russian countermeasure that was used. It will take them awhile to get the equipment operation and get out of Russia.
Posted by: Jerr | May 29 2023 20:58 utc | 68
If you only had a handful of Storm Shadow capable aircraft, would you:
1 - base them at the most obvious place in Ukraine?
2 - allow westerm MSM to announce it?
3 - get the UK Secretary of State for Defence to send a postcard about it (including the insignia of the 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade)?
Just sayin.
Posted by: Awe | May 29 2023 21:07 utc | 69
In response to unimperator@71,
Absolutely, although until fairly recently they had at least verbal commitments from Western powers to replace equipment losses resulting from Russian strikes and could actually use this long-range attrition to pressure their sponsors into giving them more goodies. If they were smart about it, they should have been able in some instances to misinform both Russian recon and Western intelligence about what was being destroyed -- it's the sort of insurance-scam level operation which I have no doubt the Ukrainians excel at -- to both keep the cake and eat it too.
Now, judging by recent statements by Western officials, they want to see that equipment used for offensive operations before making any additional pledges, and that increases the pressure that the Russians can exert via long-range strikes, or more accurately removes the soft padding installed by Western states to prolong the conflict.
All that said, I have no doubt that Russia would prefer Ukrainian forces come to them and break themselves over their established defense lines asap, since that would give them an additional force multiplier in their future ops. Having to do the same work uphill and in more installments gives the West & Ukraine more time for massaging public perception in Russia, which still seems to be their primary objective, and although it's unlikely to be fatal it's bound to be unpleasant and may even force the Russians to make suboptimal decisions.
Posted by: Skiffer | May 29 2023 21:19 utc | 70
I still remember polls back in 2014 were 70% of the population wanted good relations with Russia and a sharing of the country between ethnic Russians and Ukrainians, they didn't just cease to exist they were unpersoned by their state and the western media. But they are there.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 29 2023] #56
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"...they didn't just cease to exist, they were unpersoned by their state and the western media. But they are there."
They were "unpersoned (?) by a flunky dictatorship of the US. The good people are either fighting the NATO dictatorship in the former Eastern Ukraine, or they are hiding in the mountains and forest, or they have already fled to Russia or Europe, or they are dead.
Posted by: Ed | May 29 2023 21:26 utc | 71
osted by: Petri Krohn | May 29 2023 17:37 utc | 39
Sounds like a perfect plan! A false-flag nuclear attack is just what is needed to get NATO to declare war on Russia after the Ukrainian counteroffensive fails.
The West should be careful what it wishes for.
Posted by: Mike R | May 29 2023 21:33 utc | 72
Posted by: unimperator | May 29 2023 20:41 utc | 71
Well put, and an important point that imo is factoring into a lot of thinking and decision making. And following on that, imo again, is that over time Russia is learning more and more of all the units that Ukraine has put into play for its upcoming offensive. Leakage of communications, movements within their encampments, supplies moving in, supply vehicles moving out, all get recorded by Russia's monitoring equipment.
Prior to D-day the Allies set up Patton with a phantom army, and allowing for that force upset German planning for their response to the Allied invasion. The Ukrainians lack the ability of the Allies to pull off such a grand deception, between satellites and overhead flights the AFU can't do much more than build dummy vehicles and weapons to throw Russia off from accurately knowing the disposition of its forces.
I imagine that soon after deploying the bulk of the forces Ukraine has earmarked for its grand, and long waited upon, counter-attacks against the Russian forces lined up against the AFU on soil previously controlled by Ukraine, the AFU will see that Russia has had in place planning that allowed for the feints and maneuvers that they are finally making. And that will mean facing the maximum amount of Russian bombardment of every variety just as attacking forces are the most vulnerable, out in the open and on the move.
P.S. In regards some of the speculation about nukes: Unless NATO forces got openly involved in Ukraine's efforts I can't imagine Russia ever deploying any, or ever in need of such a deterrent.
If I were compelled to put forth a scenario where Russia was the first to use a nuclear device, I would only use the one where NATO combined forces were part of an assault within Crimea, aka what Russia sees as indisputably Russian territory. In that scenario I could see Russia not bluffing when it picked up the phone and said that invading NATO columns would experience the destructive effect of Neutron bombs.
Posted by: Babel-17 | May 29 2023 21:41 utc | 73
I think we are now at the position that the Russians and Chinese will need to sink the US navy aircraft fleets. The consequences would probably be the launching of US ballistic nuclear missiles. Now, can anybody tell me why the Russian and Chinese hypersonic missiles would not be able take out those ballistic missiles? Tired of all this, lets get it over with.
Posted by: Bluedog57 | May 29 2023 21:54 utc | 74
What was it Xi said about changes in the next couple years that haven't been seen in a hundred? Best hunker down.
I have no idea if this is a proper translation, decide for yourselves:
Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu at a rally announced the need to destroy US troops in the next 5 years of Erdogan's presidency:
“Call us cowards if we don't eliminate everyone who bothers this country, including US troops, within the next 5 years. This is the first time we have such an opportunity. We caught the West in a weak position for the first time. We caught America for the first time. For the first time in 100 years, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and I caught them. By the will and mercy of Allah, we are now in the most powerful period in the last 300 years. Tomorrow, through the power of democracy, the power of the people, will be the turning point in saving the world from their [Western powers'] oppression and their evil deeds."
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/66324
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 29 2023 22:00 utc | 75
P.S. In regards some of the speculation about nukes: Unless NATO forces got openly involved in Ukraine's efforts I can't imagine Russia ever deploying any, or ever in need of such a deterrent.
If I were compelled to put forth a scenario where Russia was the first to use a nuclear device, I would only use the one where NATO combined forces were part of an assault within Crimea, aka what Russia sees as indisputably Russian territory. In that scenario I could see Russia not bluffing when it picked up the phone and said that invading NATO columns would experience the destructive effect of Neutron bombs.
Posted by: Babel-17 | May 29 2023 21:41 utc | 78
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Again, more talk about (limited) nuclear attacks by Russia. The trolls are spreading it thick. Why? I would assume a false flag operation. Don't fall for it.
Posted by: Ed | May 29 2023 22:02 utc | 76
Everyone keeps talking about "NATO exercises", so I finally decided to look them up.
This is the list direct from NATO:
NATO Exercises and Activities
Current as of May 17, 2023
https://shape.nato.int/nato-exercises
and:
Allied National Exercises and Activities
Current as of May 17, 2023
https://shape.nato.int/exercises/allied-national-exercises
As you can see, the actual number of exercises being conducted around Russia is very limited. The vast majority of these exercises are being held more or less inside their respective territories, mostly Germany.
The only ones in the region of Ukraine are:
Balkins-Black Sea Region: SWIFT RESPONSE - US-led, multilateral, Immediate Response Force (IRF)-conducted Joint Forcible Entry (Airborne Operation) to improve US IRF readiness, promote interoperability and integration Allied High Readiness Forces, support NATO assurance and deterrence measures.
NOTE: That one is already over if it went off on schedule through May. This is an annual exercise that was done in 2021 and 2022 as well.
Baltic Sea: BALTOPS 23 - Multinational Maritime exercise designed to improve US/NATO operational capacity, capability and interoperability to include conducting multinational training with NATO allies. Secondarily, BALTOPS postures USEUCOM forces to support NATO, fosters Allied & Partner Interoperability to deter regional aggression, and nurtures strategic relationships. The exercise sustains and maintains US/NATO operational access and global freedom of action.
Note: From what I can tell, this is mostly a mine-hunting exercises. The one in 2022 appears to have been used as cover for the destruction of the Nordstream pipelines, according to Sy Hersh.
Black Sea: SEA BREEZE 23 - Multinational exercise in support of Partnership for Peace (PfP), U.S.-Ukrainian sponsored Maritime FTX with a focus on Interoperability; and Maritime and Littoral Security, Safety and Stability Operations.
Note that this is a US-Ukraine only exercise called a Final Tactical Exercise. Previously these exercises focused on "amphibious warfare, land manoeuvre warfare, diving operations, maritime interdiction operations, air defence, special operations integration, anti-submarine warfare, and search and rescue operations." Obviously this one will be very limited since only the US and Ukraine will participate - and it's unclear how the US will participate other than from the air as their entry into the Black Sea is blocked during the war by Turkey.
Georgia: AGILE SPIRIT 23 - Multilateral Company level FTX, BN/BDE CAX/CPX in combined combat operations, peacekeeping and support operations in order to maintain interoperability.
Note: This is a biennial exercise which previously has been a "brigade-level exercise" which would "incorporate a simulated command post exercise, field training, and joint multinational, battalion-level combined arms live-fire exercises." I don't see this as of any significance unless it is used as cover for some sort of action against the break-away republics supported by Russia. Given the last time this was tried, I don't have any confidence that it's significant.
Finland, Sweden, Norway: ARCTIC CHALLENGE - Multinational air-to-air exercise between the three countries.
Note: According to an article I found, this entails: "Around 150 aircraft and 3000 persons from 14 countries are to train across the host countries Norway, Finland, and Sweden – mainly over the countries' northern regions. In Northern Norway, the activity will primarily take place in an area off the Helgeland coast....ACE will be based out of four airbases: Rovaniemi in Northern Finland, Pirkkala in southwest Finland, Luleå-Kallax in Northern Sweden, and Ørland in central Norway."
Note: So they're planning to send 150 aircraft against Russia over the Finish border? Kinda doubt that.
Poland: ANAKONDA 23 - To synchronise the PAF Operational COM's subordinate commands and formations in planning and conducting joint defence operations.
Note: This one is also over. Ran from April 17 to May 16.
The big Air Defender 23 exercise for next month is described as follows in an article:
The role of Germany as the collective defense hub means most of the locations from which exercises will be performed are located within its territory, with a few exceptions, as the list below shows:Jagel/Hohn in Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)
Laage in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Germany)
Wunstorf in Lower Saxony (Germany)
Lechfeld in Bavaria (Germany)
Spangdahlem in Rhineland-Palatinate (Germany)
Volkel in the Netherlands
Čáslav in the Czech RepublicThree of these seven exercise locations will be crucial: the airfields in Schleswig/Hohn, Wunstorf, and Lechfeld in Germany. This means Germany will be responsible for three main flight areas above its borders.
I frankly don't see any of these - with the sole exception of the US-Ukraine Black Sea exercise - having any possible implication in the Ukraine war. They all appear to be the same exercises conducted every year or biennially and it's impossible to imagine that the various exercises could be coordinated in any manner detrimental to Russia. I can imagine the US-Ukraine exercise being used as cover for some sort of Ukraine attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. All I can say about that is "good luck with that, Ukraine".
Back in 2021, I noted that there were 7 to 10 NATO exercises due to be held in and around Ukraine with Ukraine's involvement during 2022. By February, all these exercises had been scrubbed from the NATO Exercise Schedule Web site. Clearly it was decided that trying to hold them in Ukraine with Russian forces poised on the border was far too risky.
I view it as extremely unlikely that any NATO exercise this year would be used to unilaterally engage Russian forces in or around Ukraine, except insofar as has already been done, i.e., use of NATO C4ISR assets. The speculation that the air exercises could be used as cover for Ukrainian air attacks is also extremely improbable as there is zero evidence that any significant number of NATO air assets will be within range of either eastern Ukraine or Crimea - certainly not without being long since detected and observed by Russian air defense and Russian air assets.
So I am forced to dismiss all this stuff as pure speculation on the part of Helmer and others. Only the US-Ukraine exercise, and much less so the Polish exercise, are likely to be used directly against Russia.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 29 2023 22:08 utc | 77
My comment is that the trolls are not hired based on their reading skills.
Posted by: morongobill | May 29 2023 16:38 utc | 24
#############
To quote an American reality TV host and former President, "They are not sending their best."
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 29 2023 22:15 utc | 78
No matter if Russia wins or loses it will ultimately fall unless its willing to take the steps other White nations seem incapable of.
" Russia recorded its fifth straight year of population decline in 2022. The country ended the year with 600,000 fewer people.
In 2021, at the height of the “pandemic”, Russia suffered a natural population of decline (when deaths exceed births) of over 1 million people—a record loss of life not seen since the Great Patriotic War.
The death rate has returned to its “normal level”, but there is little cause for celebration: The main driver behind Russia’s natural population decline is a record-low birth rate. "
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 29 2023 22:35 utc | 79
As an aside, I note that all these NATO exercises also offer Russia excellent SIGINT opportunities to assess NATO capabilities.
One of the articles I read mentioned that one of the previous NATO maritime exercises had been shadowed by a couple Russian Karakurt corvettes.
Also note the recent USV attack on the Ivan Khurs in the Black Sea. Ivan Khurs is a Yuriy Ivanov class (Project 18280) SIGINT intelligence collection ship (also known as AGI). I wouldn't be surprised if the US-Ukraine Black Sea exercise coming up is another such effort.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 29 2023 22:37 utc | 80
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 29 2023 22:08 utc | 85
Thanks for that RSH. I feel a bit better already.
Posted by: dh | May 29 2023 22:44 utc | 81
You are pitiful and desperate with your scenarios. The war is over.
Posted by: Damon | May 29 2023 21:51 utc | 79
##################
Thanks for the laugh. I needed that today.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 29 2023 22:44 utc | 82
Meanwhile, precious White Russian males are dying in slow motion because of the glacial pace SMO.
" In 2022, the death rate exceeded the birth rate by 600,000 people, and it will only get worse. Russia is steadily moving towards a “natural” loss of 1 million people annually.
The disappearance of the population at such a pace puts an end not only to any development of the country, but also threatens the very existence of the Russian state.
Why, with all the statements of the authorities about supporting the birth rate, it only falls—with no end in sight?
The death rate in Russia has already returned to its previous level—1.8 million people per year. But the birth rate, which in the mid-2010s reached 1.9 million, literally collapsed in a span of a few years—this year we can expect only 1.2 million births. That is, the reason for the new addition to demographic hole is a strong drop in the birth rate, and not mortality. […]
One of the reasons [for the demographic crisis] is infertility, the scale of which is only growing in Russia, which is again confirmed by statistics. About 15% of Russian couples are infertile. […]
However, the birth rate is still of no interest to the authorities. Just words—no deeds. Back in winter, it was said the authorities were developing some new measures to stimulate the birth rate. To do this, some surveys were conducted and various questions were studied.
In December, Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova said that until April 15, the regions would receive targeted recommendations to increase the birth rate.
Is that all the Government can do? Recommendations? "
https://www.nakanune.ru/articles/120811/
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 29 2023 22:48 utc | 83
The Ukranazis now have the dilemma of the original nazis in North Africa in WWII.
The Germans could either scatter their planes far from each other on airfields making them vulnerable to Brutish SAS sabotage attacks.
Or they could mass them together and guard them heavily, thus making them proof against sabotage attacks but totally vulnerable to air strikes.
Now the Ukranazis can scatter their remaining planes across multiple makeshift airstrips, making the logistics of arming and maintaining them difficult to impossible, or they can mass them at single locations....to be destroyed by Russian missiles.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | May 29 2023 22:52 utc | 84
@ karlof1 | May 29 2023 16:29 utc | 19
thanks karl.. i liked this quote from putin in your link.
"You can't, as they say, give out wishful thinking. By the way, the so-called collective West has largely fallen into such a trap and in its actions proceeds from the fact that there is no alternative to their model of liberal globalism. And this model – let's call a spade a spade – is still the same updated edition of neocolonialism, nothing else, an American world, a world for a select few, in which the rights of everyone else are simply trampled upon."
@ Paco | May 29 2023 17:30 utc | 37
they really are quite stupid if that is the case!
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@ ed... i recommend you e mail bernhard and cite the examples where your name is being hijacked... cheers james
Posted by: james | May 29 2023 23:06 utc | 85
Dima today has awarded Ben Wallace f#kwit of the year award (so to speak).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Xaact2P55w
Wolly has to wolly ;)
Thanks Ben and Reznikov for a fantastic performance. I can't wait for the full monty encore.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 29 2023 23:08 utc | 86
" thanks karl.. i liked this quote from putin in your link.
Posted by: james | May 29 2023 23:06 utc | 96 "
Then you'll love this quote from Peskov.
" Speaking to reporters on May 19, Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged ongoing “difficulties” with sustaining Russia’s population:
“Yes, indeed, demographics is where we are not yet successful. And for well-known and understandable reasons, we are now in a very difficult situation in terms of demographics,” Peskov said.
According to him, there is no “panacea or magic pill” in this matter. At the same time, there are problems of an insurmountable nature here—demographic holes that have haunted Russia throughout history.
What are these “well-known and understandable reasons” for Russia’s plunging population? Peskov explained:
“This demographic hole is associated with the Great Patriotic War, and with the nineties, when the country was collapsing and the birth rate fell … Now we are in the decade when these holes have connected, and this is our historical tail that haunts us,” he said. "
https://russian.rt.com/russia/news/1150520-peskov-rossiya-slozhnosti-demografiya
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 29 2023 23:10 utc | 87
@ Richard Steven Hack | May 29 2023 22:37 utc | 90
Ukraine Black Sea exercise coming up is another such effort.
Sure. And that ends well, what could go wrong?
Regardless, I expect that USA, at some close point, will try to pressure Erdo in to open Bosporus to "allied unarmed observer ships", cooperate more, as to prove its NATO compliance and will trumpet about it.
Failing that, NATO's aggressive ideation might get reduced in appearance there, being limited to Romania, as it couldn't cross to Georgia. Not a way to the victory, right?
Wild stuff. Go speedy racer!
Posted by: whirlX | May 29 2023 23:24 utc | 88
Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 29 2023 15:20 utc | 6
"The West was amazed in 2015, when Russia launched Kalibr missiles at Syrian terror bases from the Caspian Sea, a distance of almost 2000 km. I was more amazed by the fact that Russia provided video footage of the missiles hitting their targets. I wondered, if Russia has air assets that close, why cannot they just drop a dumb bomb?"
I was most amazed that sub launch was even shown, then shortly after the half dozen or so kalibrs lined up similar to a squadron fighter formation. My jaw literally hit the floor when I saw it...pretty sure pants were shat in DC when they saw it.
They converted their old dumb FABs to planing bombs, I didn't see that one coming...Brilliant!
Happy Memorial day, cheers!
Posted by: nathan in WA US | May 29 2023 23:28 utc | 89
ostro | May 29 2023 19:27 utc | 61
*** The politicians in the NATO countries are not that safe in their seats.***
They are, in England.
Possibly not as individuals, but as apparatchiks of the Zio-NATO empire.
For appreoved individuals, it is just a game of musical chairs.
Till there's a very big change in general-election media coverage, and how much can be spent, the only significant election choice that's ever allowed will be between crap, poo and excrement.
Posted by: Cynic | May 29 2023 23:29 utc | 90
- Why we need to think about Russia’s birthrate -
https://therealslog.com/2023/05/26/exclusive-why-we-need-to-think-about-russias-birthrate/
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 30 2023 0:09 utc | 105
No I don't, it's no mystery, make parenting a paying proposition and you will have lots of eager parents. If you make it an expensive pain-in-the-neck, not so much.
Posted by: Bemildred | May 30 2023 0:13 utc | 91
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 29 2023 23:08 utc | 97
Sounds like a cover story to protect humint sources, with Russian intelligence using Wallace, as the believable buffoon with the postcard, given such idiotic behaviour is entirely in keeping with his reputation. The five damaged Su-24’s might also represent the majority of the converted planes, given the age of the airframes and engines and the maintenance required to keep them flying, which will be even harder now those facilities seem also to have been struck.
Posted by: Milites | May 30 2023 0:57 utc | 92
do you check komsomolskaya pravda frequently? I use firefox and the translator addon. works fine.
I think this is a good issue today:
What really worries me, but not much, would be if the Ukrainians and their masters decided to escalate to biological warfare against the homeland. But no, not even Victoria Nuland and their ilk can be THAT crazy.
Posted by: Marcos E | May 29 2023 19:00 utc | 58
Yeah, in these days of permanent hyperbole and 'american english' and lying msm 'insane' and 'crazy' and 'lunatic' have just about totally lost their meaning, along with everything else as we descend further into unreality.
But the truth remains nevertheless. 'crazy' doesn't have degrees. 'crazy' is 'all bets are off' .
Just because a lunatic puts his socks on and goes to work doesn't mean he's 'not that crazy'. When at work he might poison the whole office or machine gun them all. He's crazy.
'crazy' IS unpredictable, without reason. That's how come we use the wrong language today, sadly, when we accuse America of being 'insane', 'crazy' and so on - for they ARE predictable. They will always take the more evil course.
I hope Bob doesn’t mind me posting this;
“The Ukraine War is Over. Russia Won
Bob Moriarty
Archives
May 29, 2023
I got to Vietnam in late July of 1968. Lots of American troops still believed we were winning the war. A year later most of our forces realized the war was a waste of time and not worth dying for. By 1970 no one wanted to be the last person to die for an illegal and meaningless war.
So when the troops ran into gung ho 2nd Lieutenants or other 90-day wonders they would explain the facts of life to them and encourage them to slow down and smell the roses. Those who didn’t got fragged. It’s a great way to off someone, just pull the pin, release the spoon and walk briskly away with a smile. Alternatively, in battle shooting a dumb leader right in front of you works as well. He’s closer to you than the enemy and a lot more dangerous to your longevity. No one wants to talk about it but it happens in all wars.
The number of racial violence incidents, fragging and people shooting themselves in the foot to get sent home rocketed higher in 1970. When that happens, the war is over. Those selected to fight it wake up to the fact that if you are going to die anyway, why not die for a reason? Like fragging the stupid son of a bitch ordering you to take a hill that isn’t worth taking.
By 1970 the entire US military knew and understood the Vietnam War was over and we lost. It wasn’t worth dying for.
Now it seems the Ukrainian soldiers who have been sold out by Boris Johnson and Zelensky have figured out the same thing.
When your soldiers learn that the penalty for shooting their own officers is no worse than their odds of surviving going into combat, the war is over and you lost.
The Ukrainian’s army has been destroyed. This incredibly stupid war should have been over in March of 2022 but Boris Johnson decided to end his career with a suggestion massive in its stupidity. When Zelensky was willing to call it a draw and start abiding by the Minsk II agreement, Johnson pointed out to him that he could rake a lot more loot off the top of all the weapons being handed to Ukraine. Several hundred thousand soldiers from Ukraine have been killed since then and their blood is on Johnson.
The Ukrainian army is now a shell of what it was eighteen months ago. All of the reporting from the Main Stream Media in the West is a total lie. The sooner Nato and the EU wake up, the sooner the dying will stop. Russia didn’t start this war but they will end it.
The US on the other hand is an Empire in a rapid state of decline led by fools and other idiots. The US lacks the good sense to admit when they have lost one more useless war.
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Bob Moriarty
President: 321gold
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As things go more and more FUBAR in 404 more and more people will come out of the woodwork and help Russia in small and big ways. I still remember polls back in 2014 were 70% of the population wanted good relations with Russia and a sharing of the country between ethnic Russians and Ukrainians, they didn't just cease to exist they were unpersoned by the their state and the western media. But they are there.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 29 2023 18:55 utc | 56
Well that's what I think we want/need. Simply the people. None of the western leaders give any thought to the people whatever. Obviously. That's perhaps understandable. But nor do any of the analysts. I can read pages and pages of earnest discussion about prognostications for the future of this war, that war, the planet, etc. etc and all couched entirely in the language of 'States' - i.e. this nation v that nation. Quoting national characteristics perhaps, national historical imperatives, national 'rights' and on and on and on..
Not a word of it referring to the people and presuming to give them any agency, any significance in it at all.
Which historically might be fair enough. They have had little real chance to exercise any. But I think and hope that a future comes when the people of the world might begin to take matters into their own hands. It has not jelled yet but there's surely been a sea change, a quantum leap in evolution of the people since the introduction into their mass of the internet and their interaction with it on a 24/7 basis: the smartphone.
Today the whole people of the West could overnight simply adopt a meme, an attitude, a belief, a way of acting.
They just did. Witness Covid. Imposed upon them by the evil empire. Next time it may arise from within the people and be an expression of them. I wait to see it. I expect it. I think all bets are off. This IS a new world.
The death rate has returned to its “normal level”, but there is little cause for celebration: The main driver behind Russia’s natural population decline is a record-low birth rate. "
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | May 29 2023 22:35 utc | 89
the birth rate could be augmented by test tube babies maybe?
but basically it is women who don't want the pain of childbirth I suppose - or the 'damage' to their future careers ?
Or fear of not enough money to support them?
Well all those can be addressed.
Importing thousands of refugees or whatever could include fecund and innately large family inclined women.
Govt subsidies for large families. I think this works at least to some extent already in UK does it not? Girls leave school fully intending never to work but to simply have enough children (by it doesn't matter how many fathers) to attract enough govt aid to keep them well.
Mere fashion could motivate women to have more children or motivate more women to have at least one.
And lastly: what's innately wrong with a low population? I see it as attractive. I shun the habitations of man. Isn't everyone's dream of earthly paradise some place with few madding crowds?
In fact a sparsely populated Russia being the country it is could be the premier destination for all those seeking a 'paradise on earth' where they could perhaps have a large home block etc amongst beautiful scenery. Everyone from the mega rich to the ordinary.
The very idea of a 'sustainable, sustained' population level seems to get laughed out of court I think judging from the responses I've got the few times I've mooted it. But I think it in fact ought to be the desired goal of the planet, of every nation.
There is a basic fear: what if we all die out? Generally meaning one's own ethnic or national group. What about if white anglo saxon americans 'die out' in america for instance?
Well you gotta grow up and face it. What are you trying to do? Keep the ethnic purity of your nation and the nation itself extant forever despite change all around?
We are surely destined by natural forces to eventually be a mongrel mixture all across the planet.
It is not 'the nation' or such dying out that ought to worry us - it is simply our own deaths. And they're going to come. For sure. :)
Just read Simplicius the Thinker's latest ... prob mentioned earlier - just popping in ....
.. quite a bit relevant to this thread and more than a good bit more ... the Ukrainian rap video on the Turkish Baktiar drone alone is worth the effort ... not very complimentary on quality of Patriot "billion-lemon" and other NATO tackle such as F16 etc ... etc ... etc ... that postcard makes Resnikov look like a fool and well above the requisite pay-grade - don't expect Wallace to be sending him any more postcards .... that UK Storm missile is serious 'tackle' ...
Read on: worth the effort
SITREP 5/29/23: Kiev Rocked as New Satellite Photos Prove Patriot Destruction 30 May
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-52923-kiev-rocked-as-new-satellite
Posted by: Don Firineach | May 30 2023 1:35 utc | 98
Inki #110
We are beginning to receive reports to that extent. Warning!! Graphic!! content!!
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-army-falling-apart-shooting-the-officers-who-order-them-into-no-win-battle
Posted by: Ancient Times | May 30 2023 1:42 utc | 99
@ bevin | 60
What worries me is the NATO military exercise that begins soon. It is incredibly irresponsible for the imperialists to start flying large numbers of military aircraft and mobilising large formations of armour and infantry close to a war zone, in which they are deeply implicated.I hope that I'm missing it but I have heard of no public outrage over this idiocy that could easily lead to nuclear war.
I fully share your trepidation, in this regard. Except I don't think it's "irresponsibility"--I am certain that the Neocons and their military allies regard it as a feature. My worry is that it is all part of a fully-formed escalation plan.
@ unimperator | 59
It's not that many years ago when Pentagon was envisioning war with Iran. They produced reports about adjusting small sized "tactical" nuclear bombs to "defeat" Iran in some of their war scenario.
Going back about 13 to 15 years ago I occasionally was granted a regular posting on Sic Semper Tyrannis--Pat Lang's blog--back when the old man was sane and believed that embracing alternate political viewpoints was something to be valued. I remember quite well an exchange where I commented that it was my understanding that the US couldn't win a war against Iran without using nukes, so that should naturally mean we couldn't ethically start a war of aggression against the place since that would be beyond all accepted moral bounds. His response was something along the lines of "What do you think I'm trying to stop, here? That's the plan."
Bear in mind that's a rough generalization of the exchange. It was more than a decade ago, but the chill it sent through me--and the realization of what the US military and Neocons were truly capable of--set me off on a fundamental re-evaluation of what place the US occupied in the world's moral hierarchy. Where once I viewed it as middling, today I see it as among the lowest of the low.
@ Petri Krohn | 39
Sounds like a perfect plan! A false-flag nuclear attack is just what is needed to get NATO to declare war on Russia after the Ukrainian counteroffensive fails.The Western media will report two days of huge Ukrainian successes, and then KABOOM! Russia nuked our offensive. Attack Russia NOW!!!!!
This is precisely the thought that occurred to me--moreover, with that Air Defense NATO exercise, there will be all of NATO's air power--the only power that NATO believes to be effective against Russia--amassed right on the border of Ukraine and Russia. It will be a small thing to arm those planes with hot weapons, whether nuclear or conventional.
Moreover, a tactical nuke exploded in Ukraine would definitely serve as an area denial weapon, since the radioactivity released would make the place where it was detonated plus a large area around it effectively impenetrable by ground troops. Pop one off up in the Kharkov region near a transportation hub and you'll block off any means of those Belorussian or Kharkov-based armies to travel southwards. The Ukrainian offensive could then hurtle out towards the center of the Russian lines, and with massive NATO air-power now unleashing its conventional (and perhaps nuclear?) weapons because "Russia used a nuke!" who knows what would happen?
Anyone saying the Ukrainians and NATO aren't above using a nuke in a false-flag op hasn't been paying attention these last 35 years.
Hopefully this is just a dire, dark fantasy of mine, but the elements are certainly all in place.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | May 30 2023 2:23 utc | 100
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Good news first thing Monday morning!! Perfect way to enjoy my coffee. Thanks b!!
Posted by: Watzov | May 29 2023 14:48 utc | 1