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The Reconnaissance Strike Complex
The Reconnaissance Strike Complex
Lester Grau and Charles Bartles – May 30, 2018
The Soviet Union, and now Russia, have long worked on the development of twin concepts for the detection and assured destruction of high-value targets in near-real time. The Reconnaissance Strike Complex (разведивательно-ударный комплех-RYK) was designed for the coordinated employment of high-precision, long-range weapons linked to real-time intelligence data and precise targeting provided to a fused intelligence and fire-direction center. The RYK functioned at operational depths using surface-to-surface missile systems and aircraft-delivered “smart” munitions.
It took some time for the Russian reconnaissance-strike-complex to improve its reaction time. But it now seems to be quite fast.
First the reconnaissance element:
The Ukrainian Air Force Formed A New Strike Squadron—By Arming Reconnaissance Bombers With British Cruise Missiles
Forbes – May 28, 2023
Working closely with the United Kingdom, the Ukrainian air force has equipped at least some of the recon section—which flies two-seat, supersonic Sukhoi Su-24MRs from the regiment’s base in western Ukraine—with British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
…
All the pre-war bombers and recon planes—as many as 16 of the former and nine of the latter—belonged to the 7th Bomber Regiment at Starokostiantyniv air base.
In a year and three months, the regiment has written off at least 17 Su-24s. Victims of Russian air-defense missiles, mostly.
…
It’s that simplicity [of the conversion] that apparently allowed the Ukrainian air force and its British supporters to form what amounts to a new long-range strike squadron—eight or more Storm Shadow-armed Su-24MRs—inside the battle-battered 7th Bomber Regiment … in just three months’ time.
After reading yesterday's Forbes piece about Storm Shadow launching airplanes stationed at the Starokostiantyniv air base the commanders at the operation center of the Russian Special Military Operation, decided to have them destroyed.
The strike:
Russia Hits Military Facility In West Ukraine, Damaging Planes
AFP – May 29, 2023
A Russian strike hit a military facility in western Ukraine, damaging five planes, while Kyiv repelled another large volley of overnight air strikes, authorities said Monday.
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In the western city of Khmelnytsky regional authorities said Russian troops attacked a military facility overnight.
In a rare admission of the damage, they said "five aircraft have been put out of action."
Work was underway to localise fires at fuel and lubricant warehouses, the statement said.
The Starokostiantyniv air base is some 40 kilometers north of Khmelnytsky.
Everyone keeps talking about “NATO exercises”, so I finally decided to look them up.
This is the list direct from NATO:
NATO Exercises and Activities
Current as of May 17, 2023
https://shape.nato.int/nato-exercises
and:
Allied National Exercises and Activities
Current as of May 17, 2023
https://shape.nato.int/exercises/allied-national-exercises
As you can see, the actual number of exercises being conducted around Russia is very limited. The vast majority of these exercises are being held more or less inside their respective territories, mostly Germany.
The only ones in the region of Ukraine are:
Balkins-Black Sea Region: SWIFT RESPONSE – US-led, multilateral, Immediate Response Force (IRF)-conducted Joint Forcible Entry (Airborne Operation) to improve US IRF readiness, promote interoperability and integration Allied High Readiness Forces, support NATO assurance and deterrence measures.
NOTE: That one is already over if it went off on schedule through May. This is an annual exercise that was done in 2021 and 2022 as well.
Baltic Sea: BALTOPS 23 – Multinational Maritime exercise designed to improve US/NATO operational capacity, capability and interoperability to include conducting multinational training with NATO allies. Secondarily, BALTOPS postures USEUCOM forces to support NATO, fosters Allied & Partner Interoperability to deter regional aggression, and nurtures strategic relationships. The exercise sustains and maintains US/NATO operational access and global freedom of action.
Note: From what I can tell, this is mostly a mine-hunting exercises. The one in 2022 appears to have been used as cover for the destruction of the Nordstream pipelines, according to Sy Hersh.
Black Sea: SEA BREEZE 23 – Multinational exercise in support of Partnership for Peace (PfP), U.S.-Ukrainian sponsored Maritime FTX with a focus on Interoperability; and Maritime and Littoral Security, Safety and Stability Operations.
Note that this is a US-Ukraine only exercise called a Final Tactical Exercise. Previously these exercises focused on “amphibious warfare, land manoeuvre warfare, diving operations, maritime interdiction operations, air defence, special operations integration, anti-submarine warfare, and search and rescue operations.” Obviously this one will be very limited since only the US and Ukraine will participate – and it’s unclear how the US will participate other than from the air as their entry into the Black Sea is blocked during the war by Turkey.
Georgia: AGILE SPIRIT 23 – Multilateral Company level FTX, BN/BDE CAX/CPX in combined combat operations, peacekeeping and support operations in order to maintain interoperability.
Note: This is a biennial exercise which previously has been a “brigade-level exercise” which would “incorporate a simulated command post exercise, field training, and joint multinational, battalion-level combined arms live-fire exercises.” I don’t see this as of any significance unless it is used as cover for some sort of action against the break-away republics supported by Russia. Given the last time this was tried, I don’t have any confidence that it’s significant.
Finland, Sweden, Norway: ARCTIC CHALLENGE – Multinational air-to-air exercise between the three countries.
Note: According to an article I found, this entails: “Around 150 aircraft and 3000 persons from 14 countries are to train across the host countries Norway, Finland, and Sweden – mainly over the countries’ northern regions. In Northern Norway, the activity will primarily take place in an area off the Helgeland coast….ACE will be based out of four airbases: Rovaniemi in Northern Finland, Pirkkala in southwest Finland, Luleå-Kallax in Northern Sweden, and Ørland in central Norway.”
Note: So they’re planning to send 150 aircraft against Russia over the Finish border? Kinda doubt that.
Poland: ANAKONDA 23 – To synchronise the PAF Operational COM’s subordinate commands and formations in planning and conducting joint defence operations.
Note: This one is also over. Ran from April 17 to May 16.
The big Air Defender 23 exercise for next month is described as follows in an article:
The role of Germany as the collective defense hub means most of the locations from which exercises will be performed are located within its territory, with a few exceptions, as the list below shows:
Jagel/Hohn in Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)
Laage in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Germany)
Wunstorf in Lower Saxony (Germany)
Lechfeld in Bavaria (Germany)
Spangdahlem in Rhineland-Palatinate (Germany)
Volkel in the Netherlands
Čáslav in the Czech Republic
Three of these seven exercise locations will be crucial: the airfields in Schleswig/Hohn, Wunstorf, and Lechfeld in Germany. This means Germany will be responsible for three main flight areas above its borders.
I frankly don’t see any of these – with the sole exception of the US-Ukraine Black Sea exercise – having any possible implication in the Ukraine war. They all appear to be the same exercises conducted every year or biennially and it’s impossible to imagine that the various exercises could be coordinated in any manner detrimental to Russia. I can imagine the US-Ukraine exercise being used as cover for some sort of Ukraine attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. All I can say about that is “good luck with that, Ukraine”.
Back in 2021, I noted that there were 7 to 10 NATO exercises due to be held in and around Ukraine with Ukraine’s involvement during 2022. By February, all these exercises had been scrubbed from the NATO Exercise Schedule Web site. Clearly it was decided that trying to hold them in Ukraine with Russian forces poised on the border was far too risky.
I view it as extremely unlikely that any NATO exercise this year would be used to unilaterally engage Russian forces in or around Ukraine, except insofar as has already been done, i.e., use of NATO C4ISR assets. The speculation that the air exercises could be used as cover for Ukrainian air attacks is also extremely improbable as there is zero evidence that any significant number of NATO air assets will be within range of either eastern Ukraine or Crimea – certainly not without being long since detected and observed by Russian air defense and Russian air assets.
So I am forced to dismiss all this stuff as pure speculation on the part of Helmer and others. Only the US-Ukraine exercise, and much less so the Polish exercise, are likely to be used directly against Russia.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 29 2023 22:08 utc | 77
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