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Mearsheimers Latest Talk On The War In Ukraine
Yesterday the well known international relations scholar John Mearsheimer gave a talk (video, 1:33h) about the war in Ukraine to the Committee for the Republic.
Mearsheimer made two major points:
Ukraine can not win this war because the kill ratio in this war is in its disfavor. Mearheimer estimates that two Ukrainians die for one Russian soldier but says that many of his friends think that the ratio is more like 3:1 or 4:1. The reason for this is the WWI-style static war in which artillery is the most deadly weapon. Russia has an immense artillery advantage. During an offensive the attacker will often have more casualties than the defender. But in this war the Ukraine side has been (counter-)attacked most of the time while the Russians defended.
The Ukraine also has a much smaller population than Russia. The current ratio is about 5 Russians for 1 Ukrainian. With a much smaller population and much higher casualties the Ukraine will run out of able bodies way before Russia does.
Mearsheimer expects that Russia, which already has incorporated four Ukrainian oblast plus Crimea, will take another four oblast from Ukraine. (I predicted this on February 24 2022, the day the war began. Those eight oblast plus Crimea are historically Russian land inhabited by Russian people. During the last thirty years they have consistently voted for pro-Russian candidates while the people in west Ukraine consistently opted for anti-Russian candidates.) Ukraine will end up as a dysfunctional (and poor) rump state.
Mearsheimer says that there will be no peace agreement in Ukraine. The war is seen by both sides as existential. Ukraine insists of regaining territory it sees as part of the country. Ukraine wants security guarantees from the 'west' which Russia opposes. The problem of hyper-nationalism (fascism) on the Ukrainian side also makes peace impossible. Then there is the problem that Russia, after having been lied to over the Minsk agreements, has zero trust in any 'western' word.
⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (May 24 2023)
◽️ Following the 26 September 2022 terrorist attack on Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are taking measures to protect such facilities. And not in vain.
⚠️ At 5:30 a.m. today, the Ukrainian Armed Forces unsuccessfully attempted to attack the Black Sea Fleet’s ship Ivan Khurs ship, which is carrying out tasks to ensure the safe operation of the Turkish Stream and Blue Stream gas pipelines in the exclusive economic zone of the Republic of Turkey, by three unmanned speedboats.
💥 All the enemy’s boats have been neutralised by standard weapons if the Russian warship 140 km north-east of the Bosphorus Strait.
◽️ The Black Sea Fleet ship Ivan Khurs continues her missions
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
◽️ In Kupyansk direction, aviation and artillery of the Zapad Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) close to Dvurechnaya, Pershotravnevoye, Timkovka (Kharkov region), and Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People’s Republic).
◽️ In addition, actions of two sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been thwarted near Sinkovka and Kislovka (Kharkov region).
💥 Over 40 Ukrainian troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, and D-20 and D-30 howitzers have been neutralised in this direction during the day.
◽️ In Krasny Liman direction, Russian Operational-Tactical Aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems of the Tsentr Group of Forces hit units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Chervonaya Dibrova, Nevskoye (Lugansk People’s Republic), and Torskoye and Grigorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
💥 The enemy has suffered losses of over 60 Ukrainian troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and one D-30 howitzer in this direction in the past 24 hours.
💥 Moreover, an ammunition depot of the 54th Mechanised Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been hit close to Verkhnekamenskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
◽️ In Donetsk direction, units, aviation, and artillery of the Yug Group of Forces have eliminated up to 150 Ukrainian troops, one tank, two armoured personnel carriers, two armoured fighting vehicles, and three motor vehicles during the day.
💥 Moreover, ammunition depots of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade and 112nd Territorial Defence Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been destroyed close to Slavyansk and Grigorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
◽️ In South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, aviation and artillery of the Vostok Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on AFU units close to Ugledar, Shevchenko (Donetsk People’s Republic), and Malaya Tokmachka, Marfopol, and Kamenskoye (Zaporozhye region).
💥 Total enemy losses in these directions amounted to up to 125 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, three motor vehicles, and one Msta-B howitzer.
◽️ In Kherson direction, up to 25 Ukrainian servicemen, one Msta-B howitzer, and two motor vehicles of the enemy have been neutralised by fire.
💥 Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, and artillery of the Russian Group of Forces have engaged 93 AFU artillery units, manpower and hardware in 107 areas during the day.
💥 A command and observation post of the 110th Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was engaged close to Avdeevka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
💥 Russian air defence systems have shot down one MiG-29 airplane of Ukrainian Air Force near Griogorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
◽️ In addition, 16 HIMARS projectiles have been intercepted.
💥 In addition, 20 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been downed in the areas of Pokrovskoye, Terny, Kirillovka, Krapivnitskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic), Zolotarevka, Chervonaya Dibrova, Novokrasnyanka, Zmiyevka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Tsvetkovoye (Zaporozhye region), and Rubanovka (Kherson region).
📊 In total, 429 airplanes and 235 helicopters, 4,293 unmanned aerial vehicles, 424 air defence missile systems, 9,295 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 1,100 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 4,893 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 10,433 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
Posted by: rumod report | May 24 2023 15:55 utc | 120
It’s Weekly Briefing Day and Ukraine is second on a rather short list, although the portion devoted to Ukraine is longer than usual–far to long to post here in one comment. There are several separate issues Maria brings up of which I’ll look at just two that have recently been the focus of discussion on Ukie oriented threads. The first deals with the Nazism associated with actions of Ukraine and its sponsors/masters where several commentators have tried to strip the Ukie regime and its patrons of their Fascist/Nazi basis:
The raid of saboteurs on May 22 of this year on the Belgorod region, designed to create a false impression among the NATO curators of the Kiev regime about some kind of high combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – it all failed. All such terrorist attacks will continue to be harshly suppressed. There is no need to talk further about the terrorist nature of the Kiev regime and, by the way, its curators. The evidence is there. When they deliberately target civilian infrastructure and the purpose of this is to sow fear and entrench their hatred of dissent, this is terrorism and extremism. It is he who is now flourishing on Bankova and it is he who is guided in their actions by representatives of the Kyiv regime.
We note (this is also in the same piggy bank as an evidence base) the increasingly aggressive statements of Western officials, who do not hesitate to call for the bombing of peaceful Russian regions. They act despicably because they do not recognize themselves as a party to the conflict. They talk endlessly about helping the Kiev regime, about the need (as they always do) to restore democracy somewhere, bring freedom, etc. Just think about what Western representatives are saying.
Take the statement by US National Security Advisor John Sullivan. In it, he argued that Washington “gave the go-ahead” to Ukraine to strike at Crimea. He even managed to justify this by the fact that (in the American vision) the peninsula is Ukraine. Therefore, they say, unlike the “geographical” territory of Russia, it can be attacked. It sounds cynical, especially if we proceed from the fact that the lives of its own citizens, whom it is going to liberate “in words”, should be valuable for the Kiev regime, and if we remember that for Washington, human rights have been the primacy of American politics for decades. Where are they? Lost in the course of history. At what point did Washington forget that there are living people, civilians, allowing the Kyiv regime to strike at Crimea in such a “sweeping” way? Is Washington aware that there are people living in Crimea, civilians who go to work every day, take their children to school and kindergartens? Or have you forgotten about it? Or is this whole story about human rights only for political science conferences and international organizations, where the United States needs to lobby for its position, collect a certain number of votes in order to legalize its unilateral actions? This is a blatant example that perfectly reveals the true essence and intent of American foreign policy.
For a long time, the Ukrainian authorities do not consider either Crimeans or residents of new regions of Russia to be their own citizens. As a confirmation of the true inhuman nature of the neo-Nazi junta entrenched in Kiev, another statement was made the other day by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Konstantin Budanov. What were these statements about? Just listen. About plans to physically destroy unwanted residents of the Crimea. He prepared, even gave statistics. According to him, this is 3 million “modified” people, and there will be a lot of work to destroy them. In this, the Kiev functionaries are no different from their ideological idols, who gave the appropriate orders to destroy (as they believed) “subhumans”, people who should not exist and continue the race. It is simply impossible to imagine that we hear all this from people who are received as officials in a number of states. But it is.
A new batch of Russophobic statements was also noted by the adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, M.M. Podolyak, who wished the Russians to “live like Neanderthals.” The fact that they have Nazi ideology in their essence, everyone now understands. Previously, perhaps, someone still had doubts. Now they are gone. All this is actively sponsored by the West, because it has the same logic. Remember, at first we saw and heard statements (video footage is now available on the Internet, they can be found) of the then President of Ukraine Petr Poroshenko, who promised the residents of Donbass that they and their children would live in basements, and they would enjoy the benefits of civilisation there (under the Kiev regime).
High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell expressed the same idea. In the same way, he divided all people into those who live “in a beautiful garden” and those who are “in the jungle.” From the same “series”. They consider themselves entitled to decide who is civilized and who is uncivilized, and most importantly, to do it in isolation from reality, legal grounds, facts. Among other things, all these representatives of the Kyiv regime are practically illiterate. They were simply trained on Nazi, nationalist slogans. Because of the complete unscrupulousness and readiness to serve any, even such extremist ideology in relation to their own fellow citizens and compatriots, they were “put” to these positions. If M.M. Podolyak had at least something about the planet on which he lives, at least read something, he would probably know that the word “Neanderthals” comes from the name of the Neanderthal Valley. I understand that I will now destroy the fragile peace of Mikhail Podolyak – this valley is located in Germany. I feel sorry for people who make such statements without even understanding the meaning of the words spoken. We are not surprised at this, because hatred of one’s historical roots is the main ideology of the current Ukrainian authorities. Self-denial against the background of absolute illiteracy.
And this second deals with the Plan Ost nature of the conflict sponsored by the Outlaw US Empire as discussed off and on since the SMO commenced:
Another touch to the observance, or better to say non-observance of human rights in Ukraine. As it became known recently from media reports, the Ukrainian State Service for Disaster Medicine, which is part of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, secretly removes organs from the bodies of dead soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for transplantation in a Kherson hospital. This fact is hidden from relatives. Of course, international structures pretend not to notice such facts and even information. In principle, they do not take this into account. Today I will provide detailed information on this matter.
In Ukraine, mercenarism flourishes. For participation in hostilities as part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Polish mercenaries are rewarded with free plots of land in the west of the country – in the Volyn, Lviv and Transcarpathian regions. The legislation of Ukraine now provides for preferential lending and construction of houses for the families of dead mercenaries at the expense of Ukrainian taxpayers.
This has nothing to do with Ukrainian citizens. No one asks them about it. There are all signs that the West is carrying out a real ethnic cleansing of Ukrainians on the territory of Ukraine. Such a catastrophe unfolding before our eyes can have no other description or definition. Western curators are doing everything for the complete destruction of Ukrainians as a people, a community. First, history was taken away from them and forced to rewrite, then they were simply “corrupted” through corruption, then they were led to a coup d’état, completely violating all the rules and norms existing in the state (which was only forming its institutions). Then they plunged into a phase of bloody internal confrontation. Then they used it in order (as they say) to “defeat Russia.” All this can be qualified precisely as a pre-planned attempt, in addition, in addition to the main goal of destabilizing the situation in the world and countering our country, and also to realize the task that Western Europe did not fulfill in the first third and middle of the XX century. Everything says about it. How can mercenaries be allowed to be sponsored from the budget, who are given land for participating in an armed conflict where Ukrainian citizens are dying? It’s even impossible to understand. I’m not sure that there were such precedents in history (even in ancient history).
Literally carrying out the genocide of its own people, the Kyiv regime gives land to foreigners for free. This is despite the fact that for many years citizens who, due to circumstances beyond their control, were forced to live in several countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union, were denied a second citizenship on the territory of Ukraine. They were told all the time that they could only be citizens of Ukraine. At the same time, people with all passports were “recruited” into the elite. And now it turns out that foreigners can be given land on preferential terms, if only this “massacre” continues. A creepy story.
I’ll point out that Lavrov also mentioned the master Nazi plan at the meeting about security issues I posted on the week in review thread: “In fact, the reckless expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance reflects the intentions that underlay Hitler’s Drang Nach Osten policy.” Russia sees the Nazi reality because they know it quite well, while many in the West want to absolve themselves of complicity with such plans and thus refuse to believe the facts presented. Those within the Outlaw US Empire ought to recall the policy of genocide waged against the native peoples–Yes, it was policy!!!!!! Same sort of policy was directed at the peoples of Southeast Asia and many millions were slaughtered, a large percentage within two nations that claimed neutrality–Laos and Cambodia. And before them it was the Koreans, and before them the Japanese, and before them the Chinese. And now we’ve gone full circle and returned to attacking Chinese and Slavs.
Posted by: karlof1 | May 24 2023 18:22 utc | 160
An analysis of Ukraine’s losses during the battle of Artemovsk…
https://t-me.translate.goog/milchronicles?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en
“What is important to understand about the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Artemovsk: Analysis of the Military Chronicle
On May 20, the end of the battle for Artemovsk was announced. The city came under the control of Wagner PMC units, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine withdrew from all fortified areas to the suburbs in the Artyomovsky direction. During the 224 days of the battle for Artyomovsk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost a significant part of their units, which cannot be restored at the moment.
What forces did the Armed Forces of Ukraine have before the start of the Bakhmut meat grinder
Before the active phase of hostilities in the Artyomovsky direction, the garrison of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the city consisted of several dozen units. The brigades and battalions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that survived the battles retreated after the defeat near Severodonetsk, Lisichansk, Popasnaya and Svetlodarsk. The total number of all units around Artemovsk and in the nearest settlements by the end of July – beginning of August 2022 was approximately 35-40 thousand people, and after the retreat from Soledar and the transfer of reserves, the grouping increased, presumably, more than twice, to 85- 97 thousand.
What influenced the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Artyomovsk?
The main reason for the heavy losses of the Ukrainian armed formations was the forced tactical situation, when the mass of heterogeneous units were forced to fight for a long time in a limited space. As a result, they were unable to maneuver freely or covertly, and their supply routes were stretched out and subjected to surveillance and fire.
Also, the increase in losses was affected by the numerical superiority in artillery and means of RER and EW among the units of the Wagner PMC and the RF Armed Forces. According to the Military Chronicle, the intensity and density of fire from the artillery of the PMC “Wagner” and the forces of the Eastern Military District in some sectors of the front in the Artyomovsk region were 20-40 times higher than in other directions.
Which units suffered the most losses?
According to the Military Chronicle, the 30th, 62nd, 53rd, 92nd and 93rd mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered the greatest losses in the battle for Artyomovsk. In most units of these formations, the level of irretrievable losses (killed + seriously wounded) exceeds 50%. However, the territorial defense units suffered the biggest losses. After the retreat from Artyomovsk to the area of Krasny (Ivanovsky) and Chasov Yar, the irretrievable losses (killed and seriously wounded) in the 112, 116, 119, 122 and 241st troop brigades are estimated at 63-66%.
The total number of Ukrainian troops deployed against Wagner PMC in Artyomovsk is 34 brigades. Three artillery, 12 mechanized and motorized infantry brigades, four airmobile brigades, six assault brigades and nine territorial defense brigades.
What are the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Artyomovsk in numbers?
Preliminary figures for the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are 50-55 thousand killed and about 70 thousand wounded. However, most likely, these data will be revised for several reasons.
Firstly, for nine months in a limited space there was a classic artillery war in the spirit of the First World War and the Great Patriotic War. The experience of two world wars shows that the ratio of irretrievable losses to sanitary (killed to wounded) almost always ranges from one to three to one to five.
With 50 thousand killed, the number of wounded of the Armed Forces of Ukraine should be in the range from 130 thousand to 150 thousand. At the same time, some of the wounded will not be able to return to duty due to the severity of injuries, injuries and other reasons. Also, a number of the wounded subsequently died in hospitals.
It is noteworthy that a significant part of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed in the battle for Artyomovsk are well-trained and equipped formations. Many formations, such as the 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade, have regularly participated in battles and international missions since 2014 and have serious combat experience that cannot be restored by simple mobilization.”
According to the above, UkroNazi losses in this battle approach ~ 200,000 dead and/or wounded.
AND……
Inflicted by 50,000 Russian parolees…. led by a master chef!!
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | May 24 2023 20:44 utc | 197
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