Mearsheimers Latest Talk On The War In Ukraine
Yesterday the well known international relations scholar John Mearsheimer gave a talk (video, 1:33h) about the war in Ukraine to the Committee for the Republic.
Mearsheimer made two major points:
Ukraine can not win this war because the kill ratio in this war is in its disfavor. Mearheimer estimates that two Ukrainians die for one Russian soldier but says that many of his friends think that the ratio is more like 3:1 or 4:1. The reason for this is the WWI-style static war in which artillery is the most deadly weapon. Russia has an immense artillery advantage. During an offensive the attacker will often have more casualties than the defender. But in this war the Ukraine side has been (counter-)attacked most of the time while the Russians defended.
The Ukraine also has a much smaller population than Russia. The current ratio is about 5 Russians for 1 Ukrainian. With a much smaller population and much higher casualties the Ukraine will run out of able bodies way before Russia does.
Mearsheimer expects that Russia, which already has incorporated four Ukrainian oblast plus Crimea, will take another four oblast from Ukraine. (I predicted this on February 24 2022, the day the war began. Those eight oblast plus Crimea are historically Russian land inhabited by Russian people. During the last thirty years they have consistently voted for pro-Russian candidates while the people in west Ukraine consistently opted for anti-Russian candidates.) Ukraine will end up as a dysfunctional (and poor) rump state.
Mearsheimer says that there will be no peace agreement in Ukraine. The war is seen by both sides as existential. Ukraine insists of regaining territory it sees as part of the country. Ukraine wants security guarantees from the 'west' which Russia opposes. The problem of hyper-nationalism (fascism) on the Ukrainian side also makes peace impossible. Then there is the problem that Russia, after having been lied to over the Minsk agreements, has zero trust in any 'western' word.
Posted by b on May 24, 2023 at 9:41 UTC | Permalink
next page »"Ukraine wants security guarantees from the 'west' which Russia opposes."
the "west" wants hegemonial guarantees from the rest of the world, which the majority of the people opposes.
Posted by: theresamarquesa | May 24 2023 9:52 utc | 1
Wrt "hyper-nationalism":
On February 7, the German Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius visited Ukraine. The tweet of the Ministry shows Zelensky and Pistorius. On his sweater, Zelensky wears the emblem of the fascist OUN-M, the tryzub with a sword in the centre:
https://twitter.com/BMVg_Bundeswehr/status/1623020280804216850
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organization_of_Ukrainian_Nationalists
-- Belonging to a tradition of European generic fascism, the OUN emerged out of an amalgamation between the Ukrainian
Military Organization and a number of other extreme right-wing organizations, such
as the Ukrainian National Association, the Union of Ukrainian Fascists, and the Union for
the Liberation of Ukraine.6 From the moment of its founding, fascists were integral to, and
played a central role in, the organization. The OUN avoided designating itself as fascist in
order to emphasize the “originality” of Ukrainian nationalism. In 1941 the organization split
between a more radical wing, the OUN(b), named after its leader, Stepan Bandera, and a
more conservative wing, the OUN(m), led by Andrii Mel’nyk. Both were totalitarian, anti-
Semitic, and fascist. In terms of tactics, the OUN(m) was more cautious and stayed loyal to
Nazi Germany throughout the war, whereas the OUN(b) took a more independent line. The
OUN(m) was a smaller and weaker organization and plays a minor role in the nationalist
myth-making today. --
Per Anders Rudling, "The OUN, the UPA and the Holocaust: A Study in the Manufacturing
of Historical Myths", in: The Carl Beck Papers, Russian & East European Studies Number 2107, p. 3.
Zelenskyy wore the same sweater when he visited the Vatican:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIEsC25hC6Y
Posted by: Cherrycoke | May 24 2023 10:09 utc | 2
It was obvious to me back in 2014 while watching the columns of tanks and other armoured vehicles rolling east past my dacha east of Zaporozhye that the war would expand and the split of Ukraine was inevitable. I also witnessed the jets that took out MH-17 on that fateful day. The talk back then was the reformation of Novorossiya with the flag prominent in many places at the time, if you were game enough to fly it considering the nazi goons present everywhere. There is nothing new in this article.
Posted by: Bluedog57 | May 24 2023 10:11 utc | 3
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/31664
Prigozhin: We fought in Bakhmut against superior forces, destroyed about 50,000 Ukrainian Armed Forces and wounded up to 70,000
▪️ PMC "Wagner" had 3.2 times fewer dead than the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and about 2 times fewer wounded.
▪️ The PMC in Artyomovsk had 50,000 people at its best, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine - 82,000, and the ratio for the assault should be 3 to 1 for the attackers.
▪️During the operation, I chose 50,000 prisoners, 20% of them died, another 20% were injured.
▪️The goal of Artemovsk was not Artemovsk itself, but the Bakhmut Meat Grinder. And in Artemovsk, we destroyed everyone we were supposed to destroy, we completed the task.
Posted by: Wim | May 24 2023 10:14 utc | 4
Ukraine has already fallen much too deep in the abyss, resulting from being a US proxy battering ram. Zelensky and the US intends to go to the end with Ukraine, because any sort of peace will expose the magnitude of catastrophe occurring for the society and impose massive costs on the West and Ukraine to rebuild itself. Therefore it makes sense to keep the war on, to hide the disaster and mitigate criticism, that would surface in state of peace.
The nationalism in Ukraine is also based on one thing - anti-Russianism. There is nothing else in the "official" Ukrainian culture or nationalism, meaning the one that is imposed by the nationalists representing the western part of Ukraine and those more affiliated with the Poles. Therefore, anti-Russian policies must be implemented at all times, else the (western) Ukrainian national identity will lose meaning and disappear, taking the tools of control away with it.
Russia has also paid tremendous, much too large cost to give up and leave Ukraine to rearm. Everything was still open for the security agreement in April and even May 2022. Now, there is nothing left to do other than remove the/any threat emanating from eastern Europe for the next 50 years, primarily through current means of SMO in Ukraine.
So neither side has any motive in giving up.
Posted by: unimperator | May 24 2023 10:15 utc | 5
Ukraine is now visually confirmed to have lost more than 500 tanks since Russia launched its invasion on February 24, 2022.
On the other hand, Ukraine has already received 575 tanks from NATO countries.
Russia is visually confirmed to have lost 1982 tanks.
Great job, Mearsheimer!
Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 24 2023 10:23 utc | 6
Macgregor thinks the death ratio is more like 7:1.
What do you think b?
Either way it’s such a horrendous loss of life on both sides though I have less sympathy for rabid Azov, Aidar, Kraken etc fascists with their Nazi regalia who have spent 9 years targeting ethnocultural Russian civilians in the former Ukrainian oblasts. But most are Ukrainian conscripts or regular troops and average Russian soldiers. All dying and leaving grief & trauma.
Trump saying he’d stop the killing in 24hrs might be hyperbole. But much better than Biden pushing this as far as his military-Industrial Complex puppet masters can take it.
Posted by: PJB | May 24 2023 10:31 utc | 7
Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 24 2023 10:23 utc | 6
Russia has lost 700 tanks and Ukraine over 2500 tanks (they started out with 2500 and received so far 600 more from Nato, unless you really think tractors captured hundreds of more tanks, probably 10). Ukraine has far less than 500 tanks left, more like 300 now.
"The army that the Kiev regime started 2022 out with, was the second largest in Europe, after Russia according to Western military assessments, and included some 250,000 active duty troops, and a large arsenal of capable Soviet-legacy military hardware - 2,600 tanks, 14,000 armored vehicles, 3,000 artillery pieces, 500 multiple launch rocket systems, 90 ballistic missiles, nearly a thousand total air defense systems, over 300 military aircraft, and a large drone fleet. This army had been built up for eight years with NATO funding and training, and was dug into heavy fortifications and trenches constructed over the same period.
That military was largely destroyed by Russian forces by the summer."
https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/ukraines-three-armies
Posted by: unimperator | May 24 2023 10:32 utc | 8
Ukraine is now visually confirmed to have lost more than 500 tanks since Russia launched its invasion on February 24, 2022.
On the other hand, Ukraine has already received 575 tanks from NATO countries.
Russia is visually confirmed to have lost 1982 tanks.
Great job, Mearsheimer!
------------------
If you're going to BS. You should keep the numbers within the bounds of plausibility, at a near 1 to 1 or 2 to 1 ratio.
Try harder next time.
Posted by: Urban Fox | May 24 2023 10:33 utc | 9
@6
Sorry, those numbers are worthless. You can photograph a tank wreck from three sides and publish it as three wrecks. You can paint a big "Z" on an Ukrainian wreck and call it Russian.
That's just silly propaganda and has been debunked already. Try better.
Posted by: Anthony | May 24 2023 10:38 utc | 10
I’ve been reading that we are heading to another financial crisis but much worse than in 2008.
The west is desperately trying to force war so that they can default in debts and blame it on Russia. Then they can start a new Bretton Woods agreement.
So prepare for more escalation. After the runways are blown up will F16 jets fly from Poland? With western pilots who volunteer?
And after that? NATO Peacekeeprs following a false flag attack?
Posted by: Justin | May 24 2023 10:38 utc | 11
An interesting post, and intelligent comments. Some thoughts:
Artillery aimed at a specific target is deadly, but artillery saturating an area "X artillery shells per hectare" is a lot less so. Granted, I am sure that often the Ukrainians fire blind, and surely the Russians make precision targeted strikes, but if a lot of Russian artillery is the WWII era mass area fire, and disproportionally more of the Urkainian fire is targeted because of the superb western surveillance assets, well, the artillery disadvantage for Ukraine could be functionally a lot less.
It is wild reading the news, mainstream western corporate sources insist that Russia is on its last legs, many other sources say the opposite. But either way, Ukraine has lost. If Zelensky had just told Putin "OK we won't join NATO and we'll be neutral no go away" all of this could be avoided. Now Ukraine is devastated, and most of the 'aid' the west is giving is in the form of loans - Ukraine will have to sell off all of its land and resources etc. and become a de-facto slave state. Zelensky has also been promising extreme Neo-liberal economic 'reforms' with no labor rights etc. I can see Zelensky wanting to continue the war to avoid people realizing what his western-incited war with Russia led to. And the western elites certainly don't care about Ukraine 'winning,' just bleeding Russia.
Posted by: TG | May 24 2023 10:45 utc | 12
Wishful thinking, B. Maersheimer is not a military expert. How many times have we been promised a collapse of the UAF here or by other "experts" such as Alexander Mercouris, Larry Johnson etc.? What is the timeline for this? Where was the promised Russian winter offensive? It took RUAF 9 months to conquer a minor city of 70k population. How long will the next one take? There are still plenty left in the 4 Oblasts Russia has claimed. For reference, Kharkov is a major city of 1.5 million.
It's worth noting the asymmetry between the sides: RUAF has superior weapons and a bigger pool of soldiers to draw from, but they are finding it difficult to find you men willing to die in order to conquer terrority, which is what is needed. Hence their cautios approach. Ukraine as the defending force otoh seems to have an unlimited supply of cannon fodder, and contrary to predictions made here and elsewhere, the collective West has not run out of weapons and ammo to suplly Ukraine with yet.
It looks more like a stalemate that could go on for years. It's a war of attrition, and what side will fold first is anyone's guess.
Posted by: jimmy | May 24 2023 10:47 utc | 13
On the Slavyangrad TG channel I read a summary of a post by Prighozin that apparently said that in Bakhmut Wagner had "3.2 times fewer casualties" than the UAF and estimated UAF casualties to around 50.000 dead. It's not clear to me if he meant that Wagner's casualties were 1/3.2 the casualties of the UAF or if he meant that the difference ("fewer") in the casualties was 1/3.2 times the UAF casualties, which would put the casualties ratio to 1:4.2.
I believe the second interpretation - while textually more accurate - is actually less likely, because it seems too convoluted a way to announce the casualty ratio.
Anyway, 1:3.2 while attacking in a densly packed and fortified urban environment seems to me to point to a much greater average casualty ratio, since most battles are positional battles that Russians fight while defending.
I still believe that the 5-6:1 ratio is the more accurate one for this war.
If we assume that Wagner has incurred about 20 thousand casualties since the beginning of the war and the RuAF another 30 thousand (which seems plausible according to the BBC data), we get a total of around 50 thousand, which would mean the UAF would have suffered between 200 and 300 thousand accordin to a 4-6:1 ratio, which is in line with the figures that get commonly thrown around.
Posted by: Leonardo | May 24 2023 10:49 utc | 14
Anyone care to surmise.
The next movement in this conflict?
Is open country operations plausible.
Or a catastrophic option?
Posted by: jpc | May 24 2023 10:51 utc | 15
"If you're going to BS. You should keep the numbers within the bounds of plausibility, at a near 1 to 1 or 2 to 1 ratio.
Try harder next time.
Posted by: Urban Fox | May 24 2023 10:33 utc | 9"
LoL. The famous internet tank counting game.
Its a hit among NAFO losers
Posted by: Comandante | May 24 2023 10:58 utc | 16
People don't seem to realize Russia has already posted their terms of settlement.
And Lavrov already stated they are in no hurry.
Some terms are for the west, some for Ukraine.
Russia recognizes the west is the puppet master so Ukraine will twist publicly in the wind until the puppet master concedes.
Posted by: Powerandpeople | May 24 2023 11:03 utc | 17
...It took RUAF 9 months to conquer a minor city of 70k population...
...It's worth noting the asymmetry between the sides: RUAF has superior weapons and a bigger pool of soldiers to draw from, but they are finding it difficult to find you men willing to die in order to conquer terrority, which is what is needed. Hence their cautios approach. Ukraine as the defending force otoh seems to have an unlimited supply of cannon fodder,...
Posted by: jimmy | May 24 2023 10:47 utc | 13
Well, the "70k city" of Bakhmut needs to be put into context that it happened to exist in between of the staging area for almost half of Ukraine's army, which for obvious reasons also meant that Russia must stage significant forces. There is nothing mythical about Bakhmut itself, any more than the "battle of Kursk" which was actually fought mostly near Belgorod. The mini-encirclement of Bakhmut quickly ensued after the capture and defeat of UAF in Soledar area, after there was no good defensive line until Bakhmut longitude.
When it comes to referring to Ukraine as the "defending force", the opposite is actually more true - Ukraine continually tries to attack on every part of the front, albeit with smaller DRGs and small unit tactics (probably derived from Nato doctrine). The same also applied throughout 2022 - Ukraine attacked significantly more with the exceptions of Kherson and Kharkov, whose success is questionable, most of the time fail.
Posted by: Leonardo | May 24 2023 10:49 utc | 14
Whatever of those Prigozhin meant, it's pretty obvious that the "3:1 attacker advantage ratio" did not apply at all. The artillery, drone and later on FAB bomb strikes modified and even gave the "defending" side significantly lower efficiency multiplier.
Then we can also go further back to Russian superiority in counter-artillery, strike and recon drones which ultimately resulted lack luster fire support in the battle of Bakhmut, etc.
Posted by: unimperator | May 24 2023 11:03 utc | 18
So the "superior russian weapons" seem to be doing really great!
Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 24 2023 11:08 utc | 19
S-350 for the first time shot down aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in full automatic mode.
The Russian S-350 Vityaz anti-aircraft missile system shot down planes in fully automatic mode for the first time, an informed source told RIA Novosti.
“The Vityaz anti-aircraft missile system in the NMD zone for the first time in the world in combat conditions performed fully automatic, without the participation of an operator, detection, tracking and defeat of Ukrainian air targets.
Several combat aircraft and drones of Ukraine were shot down by the missiles of the system,” he said.
According to him, the calculation only controlled the operation of the complex.
"The automatic mode was implemented on the basis of the principle that a person cannot cancel the decisions of the artificial intelligence elements of the complex within the framework of the emerging air combat situation, that is, the operator simply did not interfere in the operation of the complex, thus confirming the operation algorithm chosen by the machine," the agency's interlocutor specified.
The source added that the Vityaz simultaneously worked in both active and passive radar modes.
This method increases the noise immunity of the complex and its ability to detect and classify targets.
S-350 "Vityaz" is a mobile multi-channel anti-aircraft missile system developed by the Almaz -Antey concern for anti-aircraft missile forces. It is designed to protect state, administrative, industrial and military facilities and groupings of troops from attacks by modern and advanced air attack weapons.
According to open sources, the complex is capable of hitting aerodynamic air targets — airplanes, drones, cruise missiles, and others — at a maximum range of 120 to 150 kilometers, and ballistic targets — at a distance of up to 25 kilometers. In this case, the maximum speed of targets can reach two kilometers per second.
Posted by: S-350 | May 24 2023 11:08 utc | 20
And damn, this is really stellar work!
Prigozhin’s hour long interview:
- He had recruited 50k convicts into Wagner of which 10k died in Bakhmut
- He also lost another 10k contractor recruits
- Another 20k are seriously wounded
He himself admits those losses exceed all suffered in Afghanistan. So this was the great russian spring offensive? Really magnificent!
Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 24 2023 11:10 utc | 21
Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 24 2023 10:23 utc | 6
Russia is visually confirmed to have lost 1982 tanks.
'visually', huh?
Whose eyes are we talking here?
Someone with double-vision?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 24 2023 11:11 utc | 22
It’s shocking that a dug in and fortified NATO Corps sized army was decisely destroyed by a light infrantry force 1/3 the size.
That’s the critical takeaway in the battle of Artyemosk
Posted by: Exile | May 24 2023 11:12 utc | 23
Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 24 2023 11:10 utc | 21
He himself admits those losses exceed all suffered in Afghanistan.
You know whose losses also exceed all those suffered in Afghanistan?
The Ukranazi forces now fertilizing the fields of Bakhmut ...
Stellar work, Zelenskyiii!
Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 24 2023 11:14 utc | 24
Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 24 2023 11:08 utc | 19
reuters, huh? Next you'll be posting links from The Sun.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 24 2023 11:15 utc | 25
@13
There certainly are lots of Russian soldiers who would die for a just cause (which they have) - they have done so in Syria and continue to do so in Ukraine. Two differences between Russian and Ukrainian forces: 1) Ukrainian commanders hope to finish off all their Russian speaking soldiers as soon as possible (ie, they don't have any conscience at all), 2) Ukranian soldiers are high on amphetamines, making them more prone to take risks and die.
As for the Western reserves of ammo and hardware, please inform yourself better. Germany, Italy, the UK...they all have admitted that they have barely enough ammo left to fight for a couple of days...and the tanks they deliver first needed treatment with rust remover...Spain even said, officially, that many of their tanks were "no longer in any condition to serve". That's mighty NATO for you.
It's nothing new really. A great-uncle of mine told us that when Dutch soldiers faced the German army their cartridge boxes turned out to be filled with sand - so they had nothing to shoot with. Somebody in the Dutch government had made money this way...
Posted by: Anthony | May 24 2023 11:15 utc | 26
Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 24 2023 11:08 utc | 19
Lol nice picture of the "Russian hypersonic" NAFO bro.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 24 2023 11:18 utc | 27
Anyone care to surmise. The next movement in this conflict? Is open country operations plausible. Or a catastrophic option?Posted by: jpc | May 24 2023 10:51 utc | 15
The next phase will involve escalation into the geopolitical arena. First, another 2 months of grinding down the remains of Ukraine's forces, then a decapitation of the Kiev regime timed to coincide with Russian sanctions on Europe. No more natgas, oil, coal, grain, or metals for the West.
Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | May 24 2023 11:20 utc | 28
Rule 1, on page 1 of the book of war, is: "Do not march on Moscow". Various people have tried it, Napoleon and Hitler, and it is no good. That is the first rule. I do not know whether your Lordships will know Rule 2 of war. It is: "Do not go fighting with your land armies in China
Posted by: Oh | May 24 2023 11:25 utc | 29
America just copied Rome and the British.
General MacArthur after defeating Japan told the Japanese. You will work in factories 12 hours a day using your skills and real resources, making goods and services that we in America can consume. So that American's don't have to. So that American's can have more leisure time and use our own skills and real resources on something more productive than making cars and electrical goods.
In return we will give you $'s for the pleasure of doing so. You can use those $'s to buy US goods and services or swap them for US treasuries.
Trump thought America was losing the trade war lol. When America had the best trade deal in history.
That's basically what this is all about. America wants this to continue everywhere and other countries are saying enough is enough. What America did to Japan the EU does to any country that joins. It is written in large bold ink throughout the EU trearies, their spending and debt rules.
Who's going to blink first ?
The West or countries who are wanting to break free from this slavery.
Posted by: Derek Henry | May 24 2023 11:25 utc | 30
Mearsheimer is fudging his numbers to appease his audience. They won't believe him anyway. The notion that rump Ukraine currently still has 1/5 the population of Russia is preposterous.
A kill ratio of 3 to 1 is normally termed a rout. Worse than that a debacle.
Posted by: oldhippie | May 24 2023 11:28 utc | 31
Posted by: oldhippie | May 24 2023 11:28 utc | 31
The fact that Mearsheimer is still allowed to appear anywhere is a miracle. He's certainly been walking a tight line ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 24 2023 11:30 utc | 32
Well, where do we go from here?
Seems clear to me that the Ukrainians understood, right from the beginning, that they would not be able to defeat Russia on the field. Their only hope was to get NATO military actively involved. This they tried and tried again (remember talk by Ukraine last year of NATO imposing a no fly zone over Ukraine).
NATO would not go in itself, but wanted, and still wants, Ukraine to keep fighting. Ratios of Ukrainians lost to Russians lost were and are irrelevant. Neither NATO nor the Ukrainian command care about the number of Ukrainians lost, or the effect on Ukrainian society. All that was (and is) important is that Russians are lost too, and Russia thereby weakened.
From the Ukrainian side what is important is the optics - media. Time and time again we have seen manufactured media turning reality around 180 degrees. Every time there has been a significant Russian battlefield success there has been a manufactured diversion (happened after Melitopol, Soledar, and now Bachmut).
In my view the Russians have played a very cool hand, and accepted that the slowness of their campaign will enable Ukraine to indulge in these media focused plays. However, again in my view, they have been correct in trying to give as little excuse to the NATO hawks as possible.
So, back to my question. Where do we go from here? Either there will be a negotiated end to the conflict, or there will not. A negotiated end implies that there would be an overarching security deal in Europe (is this not what Putin proposed in late 2021?). If there is no negotiated end then we see a continuing running sore with Russia having occupied all of Ukraine but then butting against NATO to the west. This could go on for decades (although I am not confident that the Western economies or societies will survive that long).
Putin and Xi understand that they are changing the world. Does the West?
Posted by: Marduk | May 24 2023 11:30 utc | 33
13: Jimmy: Wishful thinking, B. Maersheimer is not a military expert.
Actually Mearsheimer is a military expert. He graduated from West Point and was an officer in the army and air force. His PhD dissertation was on conventional deterrence and he claims to be an expert on armoured warfare.
Posted by: goron | May 24 2023 11:31 utc | 34
Most of the people do not understand. Ukraine has embraced an extremist identity "I am Ukrainian because I am not Russian"
So they are fighting for their identity, and that motivates them.
For Russia, Ukraine is an exponent of the Western imperialism with a clear aim - to destroy and divide Russia, and take all mineral resources. Many Russians do not understand this.
Posted by: srbin | May 24 2023 11:34 utc | 35
How can someone objectively talk about a problem without first analyzing the cause?
Posted by: Fayez Chergui | May 24 2023 11:35 utc | 36
Russia has begun shooting down Ukrainian military aircraft in automatic mode. For this purpose, the S-350 "Vityaz" surface-to-air missile system is being used
Posted by: Rob1 | May 24 2023 11:35 utc | 37
Wishful thinking, B. Maersheimer is not a military expert. How many times have we been promised a collapse of the UAF here or by other "experts" such as Alexander Mercouris, Larry Johnson etc.? What is the timeline for this? Where was the promised Russian winter offensive? It took RUAF 9 months to conquer a minor city of 70k population. How long will the next one take? There are still plenty left in the 4 Oblasts Russia has claimed. For reference, Kharkov is a major city of 1.5 million.
It's worth noting the asymmetry between the sides: RUAF has superior weapons and a bigger pool of soldiers to draw from, but they are finding it difficult to find you men willing to die in order to conquer terrority, which is what is needed. Hence their cautios approach. Ukraine as the defending force otoh seems to have an unlimited supply of cannon fodder, and contrary to predictions made here and elsewhere, the collective West has not run out of weapons and ammo to suplly Ukraine with yet.
It looks more like a stalemate that could go on for years. It's a war of attrition, and what side will fold first is anyone's guess.
Posted by: jimmy | May 24 2023 10:47 utc | 13
I guess you will receive positive feedback from your colleague
Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 24 2023 10:23 utc | 6.
"but they are finding it difficult to find you men willing to die in order to conquer terrority, which is what is needed."
We are all familiar with Ukrainian recruitment practices, and the associated "law changes". The AFU's "fighting strength" is correspondingly "high".
"the collective West has not run out of weapons and ammo to suplly Ukraine with yet"
Yes Leopard 1 etc... what about the finances? That is, the tax money of the nations that finance the US adventure, for which Ukraine provides the personnel.
The Ukrainian coup successor government is supported by a minority of Ukrainians. They will continue to push their fellow citizens in front of them as long as they can find some. They will no more remove themselves than cancer.
They are dependent on subsidies from other states. They represent the interests of the USA in Ukraine. Although it is not really the interests of the US, but the interests of a few rich sociopaths who see the hegemonic milking machine in danger.
But the Russians are happy that they can solve more than one problem at a time.
Resolution of the Ukraine conflict and the demilitarisation and demonetisation of NATO and the EU, so as not to shift the conflict into the future.
Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 24 2023 10:23 utc | 6
Posted by: 600w | May 24 2023 11:43 utc | 38
BBC confirmed wrecked tank numbers. thats the comedy gold this thread was lacking. The casualties , tanks and bottles of moisturiser losses will be en masse debated over for years. just wait until the insurance guy comes around at the end of the war for the bill to be sent to the loser , (nato) and that will be the taxpayer grandkids.
Posted by: hankster | May 24 2023 11:47 utc | 39
"And damn, this is really stellar work!
Prigozhin’s hour long interview:
- He had recruited 50k convicts into Wagner of which 10k died in Bakhmut
- He also lost another 10k contractor recruits
- Another 20k are seriously wounded
He himself admits those losses exceed all suffered in Afghanistan. So this was the great russian spring offensive? Really magnificent!
Posted by: Ing. Smrkovsky | May 24 2023 11:10 utc | 21"
Prigozhin also:
- Ukraine has lost far greater numbers of soldiers
- 50k dead ukranians in meat grinder
- another 70k seriously injured ukranians
Thats a 3-1 ratio. Yeah thats not a win but an utter obliteration.
A PMC made up of convicts vs a NATO trained, coordinated and armed army. What an embarrasment for the West
LoL
Posted by: Comandante | May 24 2023 11:52 utc | 40
Posted by: Wim | May 24 2023 10:14 utc | 4
I guess maths isn't Prigozhin's strong point.
Posted by: Tim | May 24 2023 12:02 utc | 41
@jimmy
Wishful thinking, B. Maersheimer is not a military expert.
Mearsheimer teaches international relations, the big picture, which includes lots of war. He is qualified to make judgments about military performance.
When he was 17, Mearsheimer enlisted in the U.S. Army. After one year as an enlisted member, he obtained an appointment to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, which he attended from 1966 to 1970. After graduation, he served for five years as an officer in the U.S. Air Force.
If I recall accurately, Mearsheimers whole previous shtick has been towards generating a conflict with China and keeping US control over the Sea Routes. That’s his angle on the Great Game , the ultimate control and ownership of the World Island of Mackinder.
Just as other ‘academics’ worked on Russia and Central Asia. Sachs?
Such academia, set up by the Rulers, has been wholly in service of the Imperial Dreams and their function is to draw in as many capable and intelligent youngsters to boost their dumb aristo kids, who always are the inbred, unelected, incompetent but chosen to Own through dynastic promises.
Academics deliberately blind themselves with blinkers, to not see the whole picture. That way they can claim they are being true to their expertise, field and goals - whilst ignoring the connected up wider world. They are used as high priests, popes, supposedly with divine wisdom to impart! Mostly it’s just the same old lies to keep the Powerful insulated and the rest of us fighting each other.
The Politic is GEOPOLITIC ! Economics is pseudo science. History is repeating because the Historians lie.
There are Nazis and Nato has been instrumental in keeping them safe ever since they were defeated by the unimaginable sacrifices of the Soviet Red Armies.
Revived across the West and focused on The Ukraine since the 1990’s when they were encouraged to climb out from their fetid holes, to bring their Nazi stench back into the service of Taking Russia.
This is a War (un)declared by the Owners who never give up their centuries long dream to own the planet and all its resources for their few leviathans. The rest of us are mere disposable slaves. They have even inculcated that into our psyches. We even venerate and enjoy the modern day circuses of death by smart phone. Whilst enjoying fictional dystopian tv and movie’s mythologising of our lot as being disposable. Our worship of Rich People. And venerable Academics. Who sleepwalk us into wars against our better interests and will. Because we are too stupid to realise we live with self blinkered lies.
I fear Mearsheimer is just the pied piper to do to China what we just did to Russia.
Posted by: DunGroanin | May 24 2023 12:11 utc | 44
Well, as Mearsheimer lives in the US, his "thinking" is somewhat biased...in other words, he is just making money...the same goes to some of the other "specialists" living in the US/UK and the NATO countries.
Posted by: ostro | May 24 2023 12:12 utc | 45
"The problem of hyper-nationalism"
More than a problem, more than whatever 'hypernationalism.'
pretends to be. Oh.
Posted by: Elmagnostic | May 24 2023 12:14 utc | 46
Russia is attacked with tanks and such like with the German cross, meaning the whole 'west" is Nazis for them. The Russians understand very well, who are the Nazis...that is, those who are against them and their country. Biden, Trudeau, Scholtz, Macron, Duda ... and everyone.
Posted by: ostro | May 24 2023 12:16 utc | 48
Actually, the fact the dispute is existential seems like a GOOD reason to negotiate, if you ask me.
Posted by: Bemildred | May 24 2023 12:22 utc | 50
All very reasonable and understandable points.
Cheers for saving us the 1.5h time with a concise summary.
Posted by: Et Tu | May 24 2023 12:26 utc | 51
Mearsheimer doesn't understand a few crucial things in and around Europe's role, and he doesn't separate continental EU and a UK as kind of also being European in his assessments.
I am not sure that EU is very happy with UK's role there, leading to some things that are directly endangering EU's mainland security.
As US' insult to an injury is not enough, and I do not know how EU's patience is measured in a long run.
That all is concerning subversions and attacks in the Belogorod area.
The Black Sea obstructions to a grain deal by attacking the RF reconnaissance ship, added to it “Polish” running to the future coup attempt in Belarus, one can only conclude that those all are a UK's planned and led ops.
It seems some things are happening with or without certain level of the US' knowledge. I do not think that US knows everything and is moving smoothly all the levers there.
UK cues first in line to be taken out of the bigger part of the Black Sea, out of Odesa and regain ISR dominance over the whole and wider area. Or indeed taken out in general.
If RF manages to show up on the Southern Romanian border, RF has the upper hand over the entire Balkans and has basically won the conflict in that part of the Europe.
That would move NATO's ISR border very far away, securing the Black Sea forever.
That is all in theory and just throwaway thoughts, however I do not know how would that be doable in reality and within the current battlespace.
I do not know if RF is capable of doing “Normandy” there, but I understand that the easiest way to liberate Odesa would be overland from the North-East from above of Nikolaev's direction.
Or a combination of all those actions.
Even maybe having covert Chinese Army helping there, as a reciprocity of NATO poking around Asia.
Even if far-fetched, that moment might be closing on to happen.
Ray McGovern's questions just appear to indicate that the peace agreement is a new name for a capitulation.
-----
Currently cued for a proposed escalation:
- a RQ-4B Global Hawk is scanning a way too close to Crimea, volunteering there for the next take-down.
- a dispersed Black Sea fleet about, since yesterday evening
- increased number of RF Aerospace patrols all over the Black
Sea and along RF borders up to Murmansk
- 4 stratotankers over Ruhrgebiet and North Eastern Europe refuelling
some F-15s and Eurofighters
- Boeing E-8C Joint STARS buzzing Kaliningrad
- a pile of NATO airframes hidden along RF entire Western borders
...
etc. and the day is not halfway through
I'll wait for Down South's TG updates.
Posted by: whirlX | May 24 2023 12:27 utc | 52
Russian media confirm Zaluzhny suffered a head trauma severe enough not to be able to command anymore. Will Budanov be next? He would deserve it, being one of the worst.
Posted by: Anthony | May 24 2023 12:28 utc | 53
#53 yup
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny received a head injury and shrapnel wounds as a result of a missile attack on a command post near Kherson in early May .Zaluzhny underwent a craniotomy after being wounded - according to forecasts, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will live, but will not be able to do his job
(c) RIA Novosti
Posted by: knighthawk | May 24 2023 12:29 utc | 54
Neocolonialism 101 and the Unholy Trinity - In a nutshell What it is all about.
" The West start an entire agency for aid to the global south. You take your young and the brightest and most ambitious, and people with the biggest heart in your country, and you give them grants to go help in the global south.
But you always make sure that the help is either a band-aid or slightly better than a band-aid, but never meant to be structurally transformative. These structural-adjustment policies that the IMF and the World Bank imposed, they are just structural in the name. They are not meant to change structures, because if they were designed to change structures, we wouldn’t be in these traps today.
They’re meant to deepen the neo-colonial structures that exist. They’re meant to keep the same hierarchy that we have in the global system. And I always refer to this one number, and one particular number, so that we can test over time if we’re actually doing anything different to the structures, if we’re deepening the structures, which is the net financial flows globally.
So you take global south and global north and you net out all the global financial transactions, including trade, foreign direct investment, aid, debt cancellation, charity, remittances, all financial transfers. And you track those year after year, which UNCTAD and other organizations have been doing now for decades.
You realize that the net flow of financial resources, last time I checked, is $2 trillion moving from the poorest countries to the richest countries. So that’s how the global financial architecture and international trade architecture is designed, to suck $2 trillion a year from the poorest countries. If we were doing structural adjustment policies, that number would be declining or at least staying the same.
But the number has been increasing substantially. 20 years ago, it was $500 billion; 10 years ago, it was a trillion. Now it’s 2 trillion. And we’ll have the same conversation in five or ten years; it will be probably 3 trillion. That tells me that nothing structural has changed. If anything, structures have been deepened and reinforced.
So all the foreign aid we do, including climate mitigation and quote-unquote “help” left and right, is not doing anything to reverse the flow. Because if we’re going to tackle global poverty, if we’re going to tackle the sustainable development goals, if we’re going to tackle climate change, then we can’t do it by having developing countries spin their wheels to lose $2 trillion annually to the global north. "
https://realprogressives.org/podcast_episode/episode-175-neocolonialism-and-the-unholy-trinity-with-fadhel-kaboub/
To break free and then Hope Russia and China will act differently.
Posted by: Derek Henry | May 24 2023 12:31 utc | 55
Posted by: Anthony | May 24 2023 12:28 utc | 53
Russian media confirm Zaluzhny suffered a head trauma
"head trauma" = "loss of head"
Posted by: Arch Bungle | May 24 2023 12:38 utc | 56
Posted by: Powerandpeople | May 24 2023 11:03 utc | 17
The point about no EU membership is a strategic blunder.
The EU boat is leaking badly. Want to sink in? Let Ukraine join!
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | May 24 2023 12:47 utc | 57
Arch Bungle | May 24 2023 12:38 utc | 56
And as for Zelensky, his 'on tour' charade cannot continue for much longer so I assume we will see him green screening his way back to Kiev.
As for head hunting, one western media said that decision making centers in Ukraine are now part of Russian targeting. I assume that is due to the flash bang stunt over the Kremlin.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 24 2023 12:48 utc | 58
RUAF has superior weapons and a bigger pool of soldiers to draw from, but they are finding it difficult to find you men willing to die in order to conquer terrority, which is what is needed.
Posted by: jimmy | May 24 2023 10:47 utc | 13
Needed according to who? The jews at ISW? The same ones that said Kiev will be taken in three days or Russia has lost?
Posted by: Mike | May 24 2023 12:51 utc | 59
Actually, anyone heard of any Ukrainian "counteroffensive" lately?
Posted by: ostro | May 24 2023 12:57 utc | 60
this must be just a MOa summary of Mersheimers ' conference. There is no (geo)political views in it just some body count?
seems to shallow to be Mersheimer.
@jpc | May 24 2023 10:51 utc | 15
Anyone care to surmise.
The next movement in this conflict?
Is open country operations plausible.
Or a catastrophic option?
There are to possibilities, depending on what NATO does.
A) Carpet bombing of Ukrainian positions.
B) NATO sends F-16s. It will take Russia 6 months to shot them down. We will then have to ask the question again.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 24 2023 13:05 utc | 62
@augusto #61 "this must be just a MOa summary"
The link's right there, dude. Invest an hour and a half and you can see and hear exactly what he said.
Posted by: BillB | May 24 2023 13:05 utc | 63
Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Inaugural Address
20 May 2019 - 11:44
"However, our first task is ceasefire in the Donbas. I have been often asked: What price are you ready to pay for the ceasefire? It’s a strange question. What price are you ready to pay for the lives of you loved ones? I can assure you that I'm ready to pay any price to stop the deaths of our heroes. I'm definitely not afraid to make difficult decisions and I'm ready to lose my fame, my ratings, and if need be — without any hesitation, my position to bring peace, as long as we do not give up our territories.
Our next challenge is returning the lost territories. In all honesty, this wording does not seem entirely correct to me because it is impossible to return what has always been ours. Both Crimea and Donbas have been our Ukrainian land, but the land where we have lost the most important thing — the people.
Today we have to return their minds — that’s what we have lost. Over the years, the authorities have not done anything to make them feel Ukrainians and understand that they are not strangers, but they are our people, they are Ukrainians. And even if they are granted 10 different passports, it won’t change anything. For being Ukrainian is not a line in the passport — being Ukrainian is here (in the heart — Ed.)
I know that for sure. I know that from the soldiers who are now defending Ukraine, our heroes, some of whom are Ukrainian-speakers, while others — Russian-speakers. There, in the frontline, there is no strife and discord, there is only courage and honor. So, I want to appeal to our defenders now:
There can be no strong army in a place where the authorities do not respect the people who every day sacrifice their life for the country. I will do everything I can to make you feel respect. This means decent, and most importantly, secure salaries, living conditions, vocation leaves after the combat missions and your and your families’ holidays. We must not just talk about NATO standards — we must create those standards.
Of course, besides the war, there are many other problems that trouble Ukrainians. Among them are the shocking utility tariffs, humiliating wages and pensions, painful prices and non-existent jobs. There is also the health care that is seen as improving mostly by those who have never been to a regular hospital with their child. And then, there are also the mythical Ukrainian roads that are being built and repaired only in someone's prolific imagination."
Well that was then!
Posted by: Paul from Norway | May 24 2023 13:06 utc | 64
Mearsheimer is a shill, the only reason he shills for Russia and ending the Ukraine war is because he wants the US to move on to warring with China & focus its resources there.
The last thing Mearsheimer is, is some kind of peace nik. And sorry “B” but 5 years in the military is pretty standard for any enlisted, and West Point certainly doesn’t equate to “military expert”. As for “international relations”… boatloads of those guys, so bottom line, he’s a guy with an opinion… nothing more. And he would prefer a war with China is all.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 24 2023 13:10 utc | 65
There is nothing remarkable about Mearsheimer, and he has no special insights on Ukraine War. He is just not a complete stooge to the US Government, only a partial stooge.
Posted by: JustTruth | May 24 2023 13:15 utc | 66
this isn't even misinformation, it is just a lot of clueless people babbling in order to be heard. which they know they can get away with because their target audience is even more clueless
and stop calling it a war, it is a special military operation until Putin deems it otherwise
we must not cast any doubt on his long-term strategic and tactical genius, drawing those terrorist mercenary troops across the border towards Belgorod to be crushed like he did.
this outdoes Stalin and his operation Uranus at Stalingrad. I would say he has even managed to one-up Uranus
Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | May 24 2023 13:23 utc | 67
I watched the first part of Mearsheimer's talk. Ukraine for dummies as would need to be for any talk to an average western audience.
But there was something in what he said that made me believe Rump Ukraine will be an Idlib Ukraine which Russia will bomb periodically when the locals get too rowdy.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 24 2023 13:26 utc | 68
Hey morons above - Mearsheimer went to West Point, served in the US military, studied German armored warfare in WW2 and Israeli armored strategy. He is uniquely qualified to opine. Disagree with him - but stop the bullshit attacks.
Posted by: Esteban | May 24 2023 13:28 utc | 69
Hasbara is manic about taking down Maersheimer for writing this book -
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Israel_Lobby_and_U.S._Foreign_Policy
Posted by: Exile | May 24 2023 13:32 utc | 70
Orlov: ”no reason for peace talks”.
In French, but can be found in English too.
Summary of reasons Russia would not accept a peace agreement under ”west conditions”, as of today.
https://lesakerfrancophone.fr/il-ny-a-pas-de-raison-pour-des-pourparlers-de-paix
Posted by: FromFrance | May 24 2023 13:32 utc | 71
Re: Posted by: DunGroanin | May 24 2023 12:11 utc | 44
I didn’t see your post earlier or wouldn’t have posted my own Mersheimer :China thing. Your post was much more thorough and spot on.
Cheers 🍻
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 24 2023 13:33 utc | 72
Yes Sir! That military education makes a very special class of idiot.
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | May 24 2023 13:35 utc | 73
Has this Mearsheimer ever been to Russia? or to the USSR?
Posted by: ostro | May 24 2023 13:38 utc | 74
" The west is desperately trying to force war so that they can default in debts and blame it on Russia. Then they can start a new Bretton Woods agreement.
Posted by: Justin | May 24 2023 10:38 utc | 11 "
Based on your logic, the US also assumes it could win. How would that be possible ?
Posted by: Deplorable Commisar | May 24 2023 13:47 utc | 75
Reading the Ivan Khurs was attacked somehow in the Bosphorus? Hopefully just ukrop agitprop.
Posted by: NJH | May 24 2023 13:50 utc | 76
Here is the source about Zaluzhny
https://ria.ru/20230524/zaluzhnyy-1873873924.html
My comment? Now we know he has been hit really bad.
Let's see if this is just the prologue to a worse scenario.
I can see MSM in 1 month telling us (in a small webpage corner) he just died from diabetis problems.
In this way they would disengage the trauma for a "commander in chief of AFU killed by russian missiles!".
That is the main goal.
Posted by: ERik | May 24 2023 13:51 utc | 77
Artillery aimed at a specific target is deadly, but artillery saturating an area "X artillery shells per hectare" is a lot less so.
Posted by: TG | May 24 2023 10:45 utc | 12
There, right beside them, the earth was disembowelled by a massive explosion, tearing soul from body. Each shell came screaming straight at you—at the colonel, at every private soldier, every mother's son, God help us!—yet not one actually hit the trench. They were shaken, deafened, occasionally showered with earth or splinters, but there was so much noise that there was no hearing the whine of splinters. They were nauseated by the stinking, clinging reek of explosive, which even the men under fire for the first time soon instinctively associated with death. Now there was no telling the shellbursts apart. Everything merged into one shattering ordeal of imminent death.Even Vorotyntsev had never been through such an experience in his life. The Japanese had never put down a barrage like this. When the earth was being torn apart, you felt as though your own body were being lacerated, and it needed an effort of will to remind yourself that if you could hear and think, it was the earth that had been hit and not you. Despite all the years he had been studying war, he realized that he had quite forgotten what it was actually like; he was experiencing everything as though for the first time. With a mental effort he recalled his Military Academy training and reminded himself over and over again that in theory, with a properly dug trench, even an hour-long bombardment of this force would not knock out more than a quarter of its occupants: therefore, one had a seventy-five percent chance of staying alive.
But how long could one's mind and nerves hold out, without seeing the enemy and without fighting back, simply acting as a human target? He should have been taking compass bearings and looking at his watch, but he found that, involuntarily, his eyes were tightly shut.
He forced them open. A foot away from him, halfway up the front wall of the trench and pressed hard against it, with his cap askew, was Blagodaryov. He too seemed to have just opened his eyes. In the infernal noise blotting out all other sounds, cut off from the rest of the world as though they were the only two living creatures on earth, they gave each other what might be the last glance they ever exchanged with another human being.Vorotyntsev winked at him to keep his spirits up. In reply, Blagodaryov tried to stretch his lips in a crooked smile, but nothing came of it. No one had ever told him that he had a seventy-five percent chance . . .
Solzhenitsyn, August 1914. He was an artillery captain before being arrested in 1945.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 24 2023 13:54 utc | 78
Based on your logic, the US also assumes it could win. How would that be possible ?
Posted by: Deplorable Commisar | May 24 2023 13:47 utc | 75
They need not win. They only need possible creditors to disappear.
thanks b..
appears there are 2 conversations happening here.... 1) on mearsheimers character and etc, and 2) on his overview and prediction regarding russia/ukraine.. @ DunGroanin | May 24 2023 12:11 utc | 44 shares a good overall viewpoint here..
i think what is missing is that ukraine might have been interested in seeking peace with russia, if they didn't have so many energies vying for a different outcome.. between the azov types and the nato neo cons, it is hard to see how the ordinary ukrainian could be represented fairly in any of this.. most 'ordinary' ukrainians has voiced their views with their feet, by relocating - if they can or could..
on the other hand, the concept of creating a failed state seems the default result, or intention of the wests wars the past 50 or more years.. so you could say the marauders have still got what they wanted here..
Posted by: james | May 24 2023 14:02 utc | 80
Here is something worth reading, imho from strategic culture:
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/05/23/biden-f16-move-flight-fancy-signifying-desperation/
also:
https://www.indianpunchline.com/us-hopes-to-snatch-victory-from-jaws-of-defeat-in-ukraine/
Posted by: ctiger | May 24 2023 14:02 utc | 81
@ ctiger | May 24 2023 14:02 utc | 81
indian punchline is always worth the read... i read that a few days ago..
Posted by: james | May 24 2023 14:12 utc | 82
Mearsheimer is a graduate of West Point. So Judging from Americas performance in war for the last 60 years or so. That makes him an expert in underestimating the enemy, and overestimating your forces.
Posted by: Golddiggr | May 24 2023 14:17 utc | 83
From TASS on the Belgorod attack--
"At least 500 houses suffered damages, according to preliminary data, as a result of attacks by a Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage group that infiltrated the Belgorod Region on May 22. . .In a kindergarten in Zamostye, an Uragan warhead is still protruding from a window. All in all, over 500 different houses and stores have been destroyed"
A reprisal is already late in coming.
Posted by: Elmagnostic | May 24 2023 14:22 utc | 84
I’ve been reading that we are heading to another financial crisis but much worse than in 2008.
The west is desperately trying to force war so that they can default in debts and blame it on Russia. Then they can start a new Bretton Woods agreement.
So prepare for more escalation. After the runways are blown up will F16 jets fly from Poland? With western pilots who volunteer?
And after that? NATO Peacekeeprs following a false flag attack?
Posted by: Justin | May 24 2023 10:38 utc | 11
The West has already defaulted. For more than 15 years. Paying interest at less than inflation is DEFAULT. THEFT. Stealing from the poor is DEFAULT. THEFT.
Money, whether paper or electronic is founded in BELIEF. Belief that that 2 cents piece of paper is really 20 dollars or Euros. That that bank account of $100,000 of electronic digits is something more than electronic digits. That it is a promise, a guarantee of $100,000,
The first bullet to the head, was trying to steal Russia's Western Bank accounts. The second bullet to the head was not keeping an open retreat position.
Russia (and China) have won this war. The U.S. and her European Colonies have lost this war. Too many beers at the bar, too much bragging, in Foreign Lands where nobody likes you.
Posted by: kupkee | May 24 2023 14:23 utc | 85
The Belgorod attack:
Reading Junkie says (link not allowed to his blog on this site for reasons unknown) that it was an American operation with the Vlasovites and nazis acting under American control and the Pentagon expected them to win.
I think it was launched in a hurry as a response to the loss of Artëmovsk. It was probably initially planned to be much larger, with follow up armoured units to occupy positions captured by the Vlasovite quislings and their Ukranazi overseers, but the whole thing was rushed through without the further preparation that was planned, due to the imperative of distracting attention from the Artëmovsk disaster. Even the Pentagon, I think, is not delusional enough to believe a couple of platoons worth of Vlasovites and nazis could beat the Russian army.
https://awfulavalanche.wordpress.com/2023/05/24/ukraine-war-day-455-belgorod-crisis-situation-critical-but-not-serious/ says the only death on the Russian side was a woman born in 1941 (the year of the previous nazi invasion) who died while being evacuated, of causes not yet determined. Perhaps just a heart attack. Meanwhile the Vlasovites and nazis suffered over 70 dead. Not exactly an overwhelming victory.
Donbass Devushka on Telegram says [ https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/65075 ]:
🇺🇦 A short recap of Pro-Ukrainian Twitter in the past 24 hours- "Haha, what 'Bilhorod People's Republic' doing?"
- "Haha, Russians are fighting Russians"
- "Those photos are from Bakhmut, not Belgorod"
- "Has anyone geolocated the photos of destroyed Ukrainian vehicles?"
- Silence...
@DDGeopolitics
It didn't work out the way it was planned. Obviously.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | May 24 2023 14:24 utc | 86
Reading the Ivan Khurs was attacked somehow in the Bosphorus? Hopefully just ukrop agitprop.
Posted by: NJH | May 24 2023 13:50 utc | 76
No, it's true.
"Today, 140 km from the Bosphorus, the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to attack the Ivan Khurs ship of the Black Sea Fleet with three unmanned boats, - Ministry of Defense"
Posted by: rk | May 24 2023 14:24 utc | 87
Posted by: rk | May 24 2023 14:24 utc | 87
update:
It is reported that in the morning after passing the Bosphorus in the Black Sea, the Russian project 18280 reconnaissance ship "Ivan Hurs" was attacked by 3 naval drones.
According to preliminary data, the attack was repulsed, the ship was not damaged.
Posted by: ctiger | May 24 2023 14:30 utc | 88
This ends one of two ways (not counting nuclear war).
1) Ukraine loses enough males under the age of 60 so that it faces extinction. This would include 'voting with their feet' in running away. Still no effective protest against the slaughter, fragging, open rebellion. They keep on wasting lives in pointless, headline gathering attacks that go nowhere.
2) the US says 'No Mas'. They discreetly threaten to stop exports of cash and weapons to Ukraine as Biden blows a gasket in frustration, trying to move towards war with China. Unlikely as this seems, let us recall US defeat in Afghanistan. And they screwed their allies by suddenly pulling out.
Actually, calling for frozen lines and a ceasefire hurts Russia's interests because Putin may not be politically able to continue the war if Ukraine stops. They would fail to get Odessa or Kharkov this way. I still think quietly pushing for Odessa to be an independent Singapore is best, if Russia runs out of time but they gotta get things in place to do that.
Posted by: Eighthman | May 24 2023 14:32 utc | 89
Ukraine of course has the smaller population. But the smaller population of Vietnam didn't help the United States very much, nor the smaller population of Afghanistan help either the Soviet Union or the US.
The nightmare vision of Ukraine that this website hopes to impose, of Ukraine being left a dysfunctional and poor state, makes Ukraine's perspective of this war being existential valid. The Truman Doctrine made the Vietnam War seem existential to the US, but that notion died out as the war dragged on. That notion can die out with the larger Russian population as well. Peace can be possible if Ukraine gets its security guarantees, provide Russia gets security guarantees as well. Perhaps enforced by UN observers to keep any backtracking from either side. Russians (actual Russian people vs. Putin and his cronies) can feel their security is no longer threatened while Ukraine can live in a situation where any expression of national identity does not have to be automatically branded as "hyper nationalism".
Posted by: Inkan1969 | May 24 2023 14:34 utc | 90
After the terrorist attack on September 26, 2022, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are taking measures to protect such facilities on the Nord Stream-1 and Nord Stream-2. And not in vain.
Today, at 5:30 a.m., the armed forces of Ukraine made an unsuccessful attempt to attack the Ivan Khurs ship of the Black Sea Fleet with three unmanned high-speed boats, performing tasks to ensure the safety of the operation of the Turkish Stream and Blue Stream gas pipelines in the exclusive economic zone of the Republic of Turkey.
💥 All enemy boats were destroyed by fire from the standard armament of the Russian ship 140 kilometers northeast of the Bosphorus Strait.
The ship "Ivan Khurs" of the Black Sea Fleet continues to fulfill its tasks.
Posted by: Ivan Khurs | May 24 2023 14:35 utc | 91
His numbers are very generour in favor of Ukraine.
The Ukraine government now governs 20-25 million people, having lost the Donbass and Crimea populations and over 10 million refugees gone outside the country. The number governed is still shrinking, refugees are still arriving in the EU, still making new claims for benefits.
Meanwhile, the US publicly available online "CIA World Factbook" lists Russia as having a population of 141,698,923.
That is about 6-7:1 in population.
Casualty estimates of military deaths for Ukraine run very high among those not quoting blatant lies from Ukraine propaganda. They go as high as 300,000, and almost all are over 200,000.
Meanwhile, Wagner just admitted a wartime total of 20,000, and the White House estimated Wagner was half of the Russian total dead.
That is a ratio of between 5 and 7.5 : 1 dead.
Posted by: Mark Thomason | May 24 2023 14:38 utc | 92
Inkanazi 1969 @90 is still desperately trying to cope with the loss of Artëmovsk, which he said was "hopium" when I said it was inevitable.
Inkanazi 1969 is also fundamentally incapable of grasping the difference between an expeditionary war on the other side of the planet against guerrillas in territory conducive to guerrilla warfare and conventional war against an enemy on your own border.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | May 24 2023 14:39 utc | 93
The west is insane and will escalate and expand this conflict regardless of the consequences. It's as plain as day, yet so horrifying that nobody seems able to grasp the true danger.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | May 24 2023 14:40 utc | 94
.In a kindergarten in Zamostye, an Uragan warhead is still protruding from a window. All in all, over 500 different houses and stores have been destroyed"
A reprisal is already late in coming.
Posted by: Elmagnostic | May 24 2023 14:22 utc | 84
Reprisal?
So You are advocating that Russia must hurry up and start blowing up Ukraine kindergartens?
If their is a Russian reprisal for the failed incursion by Ukraine into Russian territory. It will be on Russia's timetable, and far more devastating to Ukraine Military. Then The Ukraine's cowardly attacks on Children.
Posted by: Golddiggr | May 24 2023 14:40 utc | 95
[email protected] is fundamentally correct. All this Belgorod attack did was expose the desperate straits of the Ukranazi army.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | May 24 2023 14:44 utc | 96
Must-read thread.
🇪🇺⚡🇷🇺‼️ Panic in the EU: Two fronts against Russia have failed - Now the worst is coming‼️
The European Union has fallen into a "deep hole" in the hope of quickly breaking Russia, writes former British diplomat Alistair Crook in an article for Strategic Culture.
https://twitter.com/onlydjole/status/1661369252488572934
Posted by: unimperator | May 24 2023 14:44 utc | 97
...and the White House estimated...
Posted by: Mark Thomason | May 24 2023 14:38 utc | 92
Did the "White House" estimate that Biden is senile, by the way?
Posted by: ostro | May 24 2023 14:48 utc | 98
Inkan1969 | May 24 2023 14:34 utc | 90
the only similarity of ukraine to south vietnam is the corruption,
will biden find a corrupt enough general to replace selenski?
Posted by: paddy | May 24 2023 14:53 utc | 99
I saw a cartoon in 2014 that is still the most succinct depiction of this war. It shows representatives of the U.S., U.K., and Germany/E.U. holding an idiot looking Ukrainian as a battering ram, smashing his head into the gates of Russia, while the idiot proclaims: “Glory to the heroes! Glory to Ukraine!”
Posted by: Archie P | May 24 2023 14:58 utc | 100
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