Ukraine SitRep: Leaked Briefings, Holding Roads, Split Training
Apparently some briefing documents about the war in Ukraine for the Joint Chief of Staff of the U.S. military were leaked on the internets. I have so far only seen five pages of those. The total number is supposed to be 53 or 56 pages. If anyone knows where I can find decent copies please let me know in the comments.
I was cautious after the first release was discussed in major U.S. media. The first batch was used to demonstrate that the U.S. is allegedly successfully spying on Russia. I therefore thought that the whole release might be a disinformation campaign. However a second round of files discussed in the media over the last days paints a different picture.
Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism has decent roundup about them:
Again, recall the New York Times was the first MSM outlet to discuss that what turned out to be the first of (so far) two groups of Pentagon slides, focused on Ukraine preparedness, had made their way to a Russian Telegram account. Some had argued that the first set was a US or Russian psyop, but the authenticity of jargon and the amount of unflattering information argued against it. The second batch extends beyond Ukraine and is perceived to be damaging to US interests.Mind you, as many war-watchers have pointed out, these revelations don’t appear likely to have much impact on the too-widely-anticipated Ukraine offensive. While the level of detail is tantalizing, the broad findings, like Ukraine’s air defenses have been depleted and are only going to get worse, were evident via open sources. Yet some of the claims are bizarre, like 97% of Russia’s forces being committed to Ukraine. Recall UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said that in February, and appeared to be retailing Ukraine propaganda then. Did Wallace get that factoid from these documents?
Nevertheless, this breach will make the US clamp down on distribution of sensitive information, which won’t be helpful so close to the launch of the expected counter-offensive.
...
At least one slide in this second group bore the label “Secret/NoForn,” which means distribution is limited to US citizens. That would seem to rule out our notion, based on the first batch (widely distributed among US allies, including Ukraine) that a Ukrainian unhappy with how the war is being conducted could have been behind the leak. This marking suggests these documents came from a Pentagon source, which could include contractors.
The page below shows the timetable for training and equipping nine new brigades.
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(Other pages I plugged from twitter are here, here, here and here.)
Those brigades will have too few state of the art tanks and too few artillery to be really effective. There is also a shortage of 122mm ammunition for the artillery howitzers.
If or when that Ukrainian counterattack comes it will hardly be the punch that some seem to expect. Ukraine had also put other units into reserve to prepare for that attack. But some of those have already been used. In a piece about Bakhmut the New York Times writes:
But in farm fields and villages on Bakhmut’s outskirts, Ukrainian military officials say Kyiv’s forces have fought the Russian Army essentially to a standstill in the battle for two key roads, the T504 highway and a route known as the 506.Six weeks after the start of a Ukrainian operation to reinforce supply lines outside Bakhmut and protect the roads, Ukrainian military officials say they have thwarted, at least for now, a Russian effort to sever those roads and surround the city.
The T504 highway is also known as the M-32. Over the last days the Russian military has moved from the south in Bakhmut to now physically block it. The T-506 (O0506 on the map below) is still open but under constant artillery fire.
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A recently published drone video shows that it is hard to pass:
MilitaryLand.net @Militarylandnet - 8:34 UTC · Apr 8, 2023📷Destroyed/damaged Ukrainian vehicles, including HMMWVs, BTR-4, M113 and T-72 tank on the road connecting #Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar via Khromove settlement. #UkraineRussiaWar
Embedded video
I count 16 destroyed vehicles in that video on a 200 meter long stretch of the road.
But Ukraine has used reserves to keep it somewhat open:
In late February, Ukraine was close to losing the battle for Bakhmut, according to an assessment in a batch of what appear to be classified operational briefs prepared by the Pentagon and Joint Staff and leaked on social media this month. [...]At the time, two Russian flanking maneuvers to the northwest and southwest of the city were close to encircling Bakhmut. A single access road, the 506, remained open for Ukrainian forces and the few civilians still in the city, but it was under Russian artillery fire. Ukraine’s commanding general in the east, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, called the route the “last breathing tube.”
Ukrainian commanders decided to reinforce the defenses of the roads rather than retreat, according to the leaked documents. Ukraine’s army deployed many soldiers to the fight for Bakhmut that it had hoped to hold in reserve for a counteroffensive anticipated in the coming weeks or months, and its forces have sustained heavy casualties.
The meat grinder that Bakhmut has become continues to do its work.
That is why the Ukrainian army is drafting more and more men:
The men in uniform could show up almost anywhere, any time.They knock on civilians’ front doors and randomly stop them on street corners, handing out draft papers that can turn lives upside down.
Ukraine needs more soldiers — and fast. Kyiv is preparing for an imminent assault on Russian occupying forces, and while Ukraine does not disclose its casualty counts, commanders in the field have described large losses.
...
Previously, officials could only deliver draft papers to people’s homes, and some avoided the notices by staying at different addresses than where they are officially registered. But new rules have widened the scope of places where men can be stopped and questioned about their draft status.
...
Oleksii Kruchukov, 46, a washing machine repairman waiting in line outside a recruitment office in Kyiv, said he was ordered to report there after police broke up a fight he got into on the street. He did not have any valid military exemptions and said he expected that the incident will result in him soon being sent to training, and then the front.Oleksandr Kostiuk, 52, a road repairman who helped set up barriers against Russian forces around Kyiv last year, recently received his notice via his human resources department at work. He is willing to go to the front if he has to — but fears for his safety. “Now we understand what’s going on, so I’m more nervous,” he said.
Poor guys. The will get abused to hold onto land that will be lost anyway.
This though is concerning:
Since early February, more than 5,000 people have applied to join what was formerly known as the Azov Battalion, a controversial former right-wing militia that was incorporated into Ukraine’s national guard. Last year, the battle-hardened group was hailed as heroic for withstanding a months-long siege of the southeastern city of Mariupol.Then, in February, the Ukrainian Interior Ministry announced that Azov would be expanded into an assault brigade as part of the new Offensive Guard.
Under its rules, Azov only accepts those who sign up of their own accord — not draftees — and it reserves the right to reject people whom it does not believe will be a good fit, which it says allows it to select the most motivated soldiers. Azov has launched a massive recruitment campaign for its new status as a brigade, with many of its men who were captured in Mariupol last year and eventually released now training recruits.
Does selecting its own recruits change a 'controversial rightwing militia' into a 'controversial former right-wing militia'? I have my doubts. Now guess who is training those Nazis:
Meanwhile, at a training camp in the Kyiv region, new Azov recruits lined up at a shooting range, learning to use C7A1 rifles. One of their trainers, a Russian-speaking former American Marine who joined Azov and goes by the call sign Frodo, said that “the majority of these guys a month ago were civilians.” One sat against a wall, studying a translated U.S. military handbook.That they were motivated enough to sign up on their own means they act more like “warriors than soldiers,” Frodo said.
The training condenses the roughly three-month U.S. Marine Corps basic training into just four weeks, he said. During that time, the troops learn everything from marksmanship and cartography to radios and engineering. It’s possible — likely even — they could then be deployed almost immediately to the country’s hottest front lines.
The basic training the usual draftees get seems not to be of the same effectiveness:
On a recent afternoon outside Lyman in eastern Ukraine, a seasoned enlisted leader vented about the quality of initial training among newly arrived troops, describing it as largely glossing over fundamentals needed in the field that have to be taught when they get to their units.“They’re taught to sing songs and march” in basic training, the leader said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak with reporters.
Once deployed, the troops need instruction even on the most ancient practice of soldiering: how to dig, the leader said. They do not know how to hold their shovels or fortify trenches and fighting positions. For practice, a group of fresh troops dug their spades into a nearby trench line.
Normal Ukraine's men get send to the front without proper training and equipment. This while the ideologues receive their own special training and Canadian made Colt M16A3 equivalents . The long time consequences for Ukraine from this social split will be horrendous.
There seems to be little of such concerns in the leaked briefing slides. As Yves notes in her piece about the reporting about them:
[G]ood intel becomes less useful when filtered through prior beliefs. As we can see above, the US can’t get over its idea that Russia is out to acquire territory, and not first and foremost destroy Ukraine’s (and now NATO’s) ability to wage war. The articles contain denigrating asides about how Russia has conducted the war. One senses that this isn’t mere media messaging but is well internalized among US and NATO decision-makers. That sort of under-estimation has worked out very well for Russia. And the very solidly build echo chamber in the Beltway means it’s likely to continue.
Posted by b on April 10, 2023 at 17:29 UTC | Permalink
next page »Well, it is Easter Monday so some people of a religious bent can easily conjure up a fictitious brigade or two for the big push. Let them. As for the rest of us, what the WP or NYT say is of no importance whatsoever except for the comedy value.
Posted by: Merkin Scot | Apr 10 2023 17:53 utc | 2
"motivated enough to sign up on their own"
After the country has been at war over thirteen months. Azov remains the Kool Kidz Klub and middle class. Or better. They will be trained to shoot the serfs in the back.
Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 10 2023 18:00 utc | 3
The Ukrainian Civil War is a mere sideshow. The real war is over de-dollarization.
Posted by: Exile | Apr 10 2023 18:04 utc | 4
What the US is doing is in total violation of Ukrainian and international law. The US is waging a war of aggression against Ukraine since 2014 - similar to the 50s by arming and training nazi terrorists. To defend Ukraine against that aggression the Ukrainian president appealed for the armed forces of the Russian Federation(similar to Syria and Kazakhstan):
"I appeal to the President of Russia Vladimir V. Putin to use the armed forces of the Russian Federation to re-establish the rule of law, peace, order, stability and to protect the people of Ukraine."
reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-un/russia-yanukovich-asked-putin-to-use-force-to-save-ukraine-idUSBREA2224720140304
Posted by: p3t3r | Apr 10 2023 18:13 utc | 5
thanks b.... this thing is not going to stop soon... essentially the ukrainians are the wood to throw on the fire... the west are quite okay with this, as it keeps the military complex humming along... meanwhile lives are lost on both sides while the west its determination to turn ukraine into a shit hole.. add in the azov fanatics - makes sense and very western pro nazi like... thanks for the update..
Posted by: james | Apr 10 2023 18:13 utc | 6
Nothing has been leaked. This is just an excuse for the non existing „spring counter offensive“:
„Now that our great plans habe been leaked, we cannot start the offensive as planed“.
Posted by: HansWurst | Apr 10 2023 18:18 utc | 8
It's so hard to tell what's really going on, certainly there is no source of hard data that I can trust - and most definitely not the western corporate press.
But I am deeply puzzled at these new 'leaks'. Quite aside from whether they are real, real and heavily modified, or total fiction, what was the purpose? I don't get it. If it's embarrassing to the western powers then why is it even being discussed in the press? Maybe you can't truly erase anything from the internet, but you can sure bury it and make sure that most people can't find it/don't even know it exists. A Ukrainian sympathizer that doesn't want Ukraine to engage in a bloody offensive when they are not ready? Also, if even half-way right these leaks would be a major intelligence coup for the Russians, as they could get insight into their own weaknesses - but then why not just leak to the Russians? Any way you think about it, it's bizarre. And maybe that's the idea: just add more chaos to the public discussions.
Also: I had an idea about Bakhmut. I certainly may be totally wrong, but hear me out: maybe the reason that the Russians are having such a hard time taking Bakhmut, is because there is nobody there! I mean, encircled as it is, with the roads under direct fire from the Russians, how can the Ukrainians be holding out? Maybe they aren't - maybe the Ukrainians have some cannon-fodder light infantry infiltrated there just to keep up appearances, but all their heavy weapons are ten-ish miles to the west (and spread out and mobile). So no real need for supplies to the city. The Russians launch human wave attacks on Bakhmut, and the Ukrainians repel the attacks using artillery and missiles far outside the city limit. It's just a worthless kill box! Are the Russian senior leadership stupid enough to fall for this trick? Maybe. Or maybe not, and the Russians are using the attacks on Bakhmut to draw out the Ukrainian heavy weapons to the west. Maybe Bakhmut itself is worthless to both sides, a square mile of rubble populated by the most disposable light troops possible, and it's only an excuse for a massive artillery duel.
Posted by: TG | Apr 10 2023 18:21 utc | 9
b, the sentence
(Other pages I plugged from twitter are here, here, here and here.)seems to have three links to "ukrleaks.jpg", which I surmise were placeholders for ukrleak3.jpg, ukrleak4.jpg, and ukrleak5.jpg.
Posted by: David Levin | Apr 10 2023 18:23 utc | 10
I think it's a psyop, but not about the war in Ukraine. It has to do with the US war on information sharing among the people, through the internet.
The US is trying to pass a law which will criminalize Wrong Think and the sharing of information and ideas horizontally between we plebes. It is called the RESTRICT Act and they tried to slam it through without discussion a couple of weeks ago. Rand Paul stopped that, so now we are getting non-stop top-down disinformation about a supposed leak on 4chan, because someone got into an argument, and wanted to prove their point.
Right. That is in no way believable.
I think the most relevant line from Yves is this one:
"Nevertheless, this breach will make the US clamp down on distribution of sensitive information", except that the "sensitive information" is anything that goes against the Official Narrative, and they want to use the criminal system to punish us talking among ourselves.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Apr 10 2023 18:23 utc | 11
I read today that the Ukrainian recruitment officers are now sending summonses to priests of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, even the gray-haired chairman of the information and educational department of the UOC.
A good listing of the figures included in the leaked documents with a discussion of the meaning of the information is here: https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/major-nato-plans-for-ukraine-leaked
Posted by: Belle | Apr 10 2023 18:27 utc | 12
In the unshakable and glorious name of Democracy, it is necessary for us to silence you, for your own good, of course.
All Hail senility and avarice.
Posted by: kupkee | Apr 10 2023 18:34 utc | 13
The consensus is that the documents are real. My gut feeling is that the documents might be "real" in that they were generated in the West but the motive and timing of their publication as well as the rather bland nature of the revelations - which can be summarised as "Ukraine needs more weapons NOW!!" - makes them questionable. After all, one of Ukraine's main weapons is the NYT front page.
The documents seem to provide information that runs counter to the MSM narrative, which provides a veneer of legitimacy but several commentators have pointed out that the information they provide could be gleaned from open sources. Whether that is true or not, the one thing that would "legitimise" these documents is the one thing that is misleading/doctored, namely, real Ukrainian casualty figures.
I imagine a scenario whereby all the brouhaha that these leaks have occasioned in the MSM was accompanied by a Ukrainian casualty figure of 250,000 dead and wounded or something like that. What would the headlines be? How would that affect the moral posture adopted by the Europeans? The legitimacy of the "No negotiations until Crimea is returned" position would crumble like a house of cards exposing the Nuland/Biden project to potentially catastrophic consequences.
Posted by: eyeswideopen | Apr 10 2023 18:38 utc | 14
RELEASED "SECRET DOCUMENTS"
Recently a NATO center within Ukraine was missiled by the Russians. Maybe during the cleanup of this facility, these "secret" documents were found, hidden, and sold.
I have not heard that these plans had any specific deployment dates or locations. There were some weather reports that indicated when an offensive might be viable regarding road and field conditions.
Maybe these plans are entirely fake to mislead the Russians. If they are a fake, a lot of detailed information was defined therein. Enough details are found within these documents for the Russians to be able to determine if they fake or real. This makes me think that the plans may be authenic.
Some think these documents were released by Russia.
Whether these documents are real or fake, it will shake the morale of the Ukrainian troops to know that the plans of their command may be compromised. The last thing a trooper wants is for the enemy to know when and where he is coming. Even though these plans did not define specific mobilization dates and locations, they did define specific date windows for mobilization.
Regardless of their source and regardless if these plans are accurate or not; overall it will hurt the Ukrainian efforts the most. They will hurt in the morale of the AFU to some degree regardless if they are or if they are not authenic.
If they are fake, I am sure the Russians will figure it out before any Ukrainian offensive is launched.
If a major Ukrainian offensive is quickly neutralized by the Russians, the release of these "SECRET" DOCUMENTS will be blamed by the West and Ukraine.
Perhaps, the West knew that the upcoming Ukrainian offensive was going to be a failure so these documents were released to shift the blame of a failed counter attack upon these released documents instead of specific individuals and governments.
Such is the fog of war. Let's see what the upcoming Ukrainian offensive will do? Let's see where the Russians go after this offensive. I don't think that will be take very long. Maybe within the next 3 months?
Posted by: young | Apr 10 2023 18:41 utc | 15
B, no one is going to post links to the other 50 pages because they don't exist. In all probability they never existed. The 5-10 pages that are findable show the Ukrainian info and a couple of pages that are too low resolution to read, except for one on Isreal.
This allows the NYT & Co to say that those other pages contained whatever they want.
Posted by: team10tim | Apr 10 2023 18:41 utc | 16
I agree with wagelaborer. I find the timing strange with tik tok /social media bill on blocking info on social media due to “national security concerns” All the MSM in the headline point out the leak “shared on social media” - how would the msm pick up the story and leaks as opposed to anyone on social media? None of it seems real.
Posted by: Petra | Apr 10 2023 18:46 utc | 17
And thus b joins the parade of writers dealing with the "leak." Escobar has his own version published here, "The Pentagon Leaks Charade", and I could list at least six more similar efforts. So far, I like Tom Lipscomb's hypothesis the best, "WHY PUTIN MAY HAVE EXPOSED THE US/NATO UKRAINE OPERATIONS DOCUMENTS", which opens thusly:
While the US, at least since 1992, has been riding rough shod over international law and custom under its preferred “rules based order,” in an imperial pursuit of hegemony as arrogant as it is incompetent, Russia’s Putin has apparently been patiently filling out what it saw as compliance briefs and required paperwork during the same period of time, assuming the governing validity of international law.In a major reversal from previous Cold War practice, the US and West floats even the most improbable propaganda when it chooses to offer an explanation at all, as we can see from the idiotic constantly changing stories about Nordstream, while Russian communications have been clear, pointed and detailed. One forgets too easily Putin is a lawyer and whatever contempt we may have for his education in Soviet law, he clearly takes legal restraints seriously. Putin builds a record, thoroughly and in detail, and is consistent in giving advance warning and then an explanation for his actions, step by step....
What does this have to do with the bizarre release of what look like 100 pages of authentic secret US/NATO operations memoranda on Ukraine? After all many have correctly observed there are really few newsbreaks here and there is nothing really in it that is a surprise to anyone other than the fact that someone was able to get their hands on the documents. So what purpose does releasing these documents have and to whose benefit?
Perhaps they make it possible to use US/NATO documents, rather than Russian assertions alone, to establish a legal framework and build the record for whatever settlement Putin plans to impose upon Ukraine. It helps prove Putin’s case that his intervention was required by an active and ongoing conspiracy led by the United States to use Ukraine to attack and subvert Russia. [My Emphasis]
Martyanov's first commentary today is "The Change of Plans" that builds on his parsing Lipscomb's item. But does the "leak" alter anything on the FEBA? Most are saying no, and I agree.
The documents claimed that BUK-M1 and S-300 missiles will have run out by April and mid-May in the current consumption rate. It may even hamper their use, before they "completely" run out.
This will most likely have major detrimental effects for concentrating a large attack force, for example, in the Zaporozhye front. The deployment map shows 9 mechanized brigades around Dnipro, and 3 behind Nikolaev. These are probably the "best Nato trained and equipped" attack force we are talking about.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 10 2023 18:50 utc | 19
@ karlof1 | Apr 10 2023 18:46 utc | 18
Escobar's drivel makes no sense. For one thing he appears to believe the nonsense NYT assertion that Russian generals were killed.
Even worse, he blathers that 'fake or not fake' the disinformation somehow confirms U.S. infiltration of Russian officialdom.
Utter lunacy.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Apr 10 2023 19:01 utc | 20
It's interesting that the foreign spec forces are more or less exactly what was said last year (Even by the American MSM) US, French (It's hard to know what Macron or rather his masters are thinking, his dispositions throughout this crisis have been deeply contradictory and confusing) British and a Baltic state. Though interestingly the Baltic state isn't Lithuania (Which has along with Poland been deranged in their attempt to escalate this war and get the West to take revenge on Russian on their behalf) but Latvia which has a large Soviet-era trans-located ethnic Russian population being about 20% of the total population. (Lithuania by contrast has had it's imperial ethnic backwash removed by the 20th century, Vilnius's history with Lithuanians a minority with plenty of Germans, Jews and others is now hard to fathom)
It's interesting because I don't believe anyone suggested they were at this prior. Incidentally, Latvia just reintroduced national service conscription after this release. Maybe they're scared of how bad this looks to Russia?
Estonia and Latvia have actual fear of Russian invasion both being small, within traditional Russian empire territory (In the minds of Russian nationalists it wouldn't be a leap to take them) and with the large ethnic Russian populations deposited there to improve their 'loyalty'. This along with their actual strategic value on the Baltic sea.
Also given how small they are, both geographically and population-wise, it'd be easier for the Russians to march in on a fait accompli.
I also note that the bilingual Trevor Cadieu (Still unaccounted for since the Azozstal siege where rumours on telegram suggested he was captured by the Russians) who was almost appointed the head of the Canadian army prior to a woman claiming he raped her when they were at officer school together and then was inexplicably allowed to board a plane and flee to fight in Ukraine (Almost like he was offered a deal to do service in Ukraine in exchange for escaping his rape trial) might well be valuable in coordinating between the Anglophones and the French...
Ukraine’s Foreign Legion offers a shot at redemption for fighters from around the globe
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-russia-ukraine-war-foreign-legion
Military leaders told sex misconduct scandal was a PR war
https://www.melfortjournal.com/news/national/defence-watch/military-leaders-told-sex-misconduct-scandal-was-a-pr-war
The Canadian military’s senior leadership was advised the sexual misconduct crisis was a battle for public opinion and those who raised concerns were akin to foreign enemies.
Posted by: Altai | Apr 10 2023 19:06 utc | 21
@ karlof1 | Apr 10 2023 18:46 utc | 18
thanks for sharing tom lipscomb's hypothesis... i like what he says.. makes sense...
Posted by: james | Apr 10 2023 19:07 utc | 22
Ok, this is my view. The documents are real(ish) but doctored. They are out of date. They accord with publically available information. So they have enough veracity to be taken as genuine and may well be. But no information I did not know or have been informed by others. So hardly earth shaking stuff.
However I consider they are deliberately leaked (not 100% sure) to imply a false and weaker picture of UAF capabilities and readiness than is the case case in reality.
No doubt STAVKA has been totally fooled. The orcs are really stupid that way....
The supposed search for the leaker is BS. Probably.
Posted by: marcjf | Apr 10 2023 19:10 utc | 23
The Nazis were never defeated, they were absorbed by Europe and the USA and now dominate Western politics; in particular, their determination to destroy Russia is a signature policy adopted by Britain And Germany.
Von der Leyen has a spotless NAZI pedigree. Which is why she got her job.
Posted by: CitizenSmith | Apr 10 2023 19:22 utc | 24
The single most relevant issue IMO is, whether the information about BUK-M1 and S-300 missiles is true and the run out at some past average consumption rate by April and mid-May. It will significantly hamper ability to concentrate offensive groups, for instance south and SE or E of Zaporozhye plains. It might already hamper that ability, witnessed by guided bomb use.
The rest of the data is pretty much noise. The only way to truly gauge offensive potential is simply to know where all the equipment are (like for instance, hidden among houses in Zaporozhye or Orekhov or Chasov Yar).
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 10 2023 19:24 utc | 25
"If anyone knows where I can find decent copies please let me know in the comments"
There's a WSJ "journalist" might help. Failing that, try the guardian or sly news. 😂🤣😂🤣
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Apr 10 2023 19:44 utc | 26
OK am I getting this right: Russia releases Azov nazis; said nazis go on to train new nazis. Some people on the Russian side claim that Moscow prefers a long war, but isn't this overdoing it?
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Apr 10 2023 19:47 utc | 27
Thanks for the posting b
I am of the opinion that it is too early to tell about the validity of the documents we are reading about and seeing online.
Will these "leaks" be used to justify the loss of Ukraine?
How much of these "leaks" are a distraction? From What?
What is the details about the online availability of these documents?....they didn't all come out at once from what I read early on.
Cui bono if they are valid?
Cui bono if they are all or partially fake?
And the RoW caravan rolls on into the future....
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 10 2023 19:50 utc | 28
offhand i don't see what difference the docs make, we already know Ukraine is weak and losing. maybe some internal power games in Washington, or a ploy by Ukraine to get yet more support.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Apr 10 2023 19:50 utc | 29
I beg to disagree about US thinking. They know better than Russia that Ukrainian Nazi genocide is illegal, but that's the anglosaxon raison d'etre. Accusing Russia of territorial ambitions is just lies.
The zionist cuckoo is supposed to throw out the other eggs or chicks in the nest.
I feel the gravity but as the ambulance crew say, it won't actually hurt until you hit the ground. So why panic?
Posted by: Giyane | Apr 10 2023 19:51 utc | 30
@ karlof1 | Apr 10 2023 18:46 utc | 18
re Lipscomb's ". . . the US and West floats even the most improbable propaganda"
The US State Department is on a full-out war on "disinformation" complete with agencies and offices, and following the precept that whatever the government says then believe the opposite, that means the US is on a full-out propaganda program like nothing we've ever seen.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 10 2023 19:53 utc | 31
Posted by: TG | Apr 10 2023 18:21 utc | 9
They’re not having a hard time taking it, the Ukrainians are having a hard time keeping what they have left. The emphasis is important in understanding the role the Russians assigned the city and it’s importance in their operational plans.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 10 2023 19:57 utc | 32
Young no.15
"Perhaps, the West knew that the upcoming Ukrainian offensive was going to be a failure so these documents were released to shift the blame of a failed counter attack upon these released documents instead of specific individuals and governments."
It's called an "off ramp". Like so many other recent "off ramps"
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Apr 10 2023 19:58 utc | 33
Another take on the motive, the particular website has been uncannily accurate at predicting some of the the Swamp’s moves months, sometimes years in advance, but it’s also got somethings badly wrong. Wonder which is it, on this occasion?
Posted by: Milites | Apr 10 2023 20:07 utc | 34
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Apr 10 2023 19:01 utc | 19
Escobar's drivel makes no sense. For one thing he appears to believe the nonsense NYT assertion that Russian generals were killed.
Figleaf23 apparently does not know how to read. Neither Pepe nor Martyanov sat anything like what he claims, but MSM media do.
Russian generals do die in wars, precisely because they do not hang back in safe spots, and precisely because US intercepts do go to Ukrainian forces.
Posted by: Tedder | Apr 10 2023 20:08 utc | 35
I wonder if the disputed figure for Ukranian Kia gives the US an opportunity for plausible deniability.
"Hey man, look at the leak, we didn't realise so many were dying.... man..."
Posted by: Sean | Apr 10 2023 20:14 utc | 36
File the posting title below from ZH under late empire Public Policy Planning/s
Biden To Deploy “Army” Of Social Media Influencers, Station Them In White House
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 10 2023 20:16 utc | 37
Don Bacon @29--
Thanks for your reply. One of my initial thoughts was Rovian False Reality since it remains the Empire of Lies, along with the entire manner of the leak to a Mine Craft game site and then only a few can be accessed?!? But then Lipscomb's hypothesis seems outré but is it really? And lastly, aside from declaring the actual state of relations between the Empire and Russia--undeclared war--there's really nothing of value unless the value resides in those papers we can't access.
And so, on to the next act within our Circus's Big Top!
@ psychhistorian 26
A distraction from Europe's impending fate to be at war, following a serious false flag. If that war happened how many Europeans would be with Ukrainian Fascism and how many would be against it? Thecspooks' job is to divide and rule.
So the purpose of announcing the sure destruction of Ukraine, and the possibility of Nato direct intervention is to give us time to divide ourselves. I can tell you now that most of my own family would prefer Fascism to fighting Fascism.
In Syria the bad guys jihadists were bad only bad because they were openly under the control of USUKIS and Assad though bad was also only a Usukis stooge. But in Ukraine, Fascism is the pinnacle of evil in its own right regardless of Usukis sponsorship.
I have to physically fight Fascism when it arrives or before it arrives.
The psyops is designed to get us plebs to choose our own red lines, which they monitor by algorithms.
Our spooks thus constantly calibrate the public mood, And this enables them to scriptwrite the political slogans.
I think it's obvious that the majority of Brits would vote for Fascist Starmer or
Fascist Sunak if they played the Putin bad card.
Posted by: Giyane | Apr 10 2023 20:22 utc | 39
psychohistorian @35--
I guess they're going to convert the White House bowling alley into a troll cave.
Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 10 2023 18:46 utc |
If this analysis is true, and both sides are manoeuvring to position themselves post-conflict, then it strengthens the idea that the promise of Western weapons and support are less about helping Ukraine to keep fighting and more about creating pressure-exerting mechanisms on what’s left, to remain in the Western orbit of influence.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 10 2023 20:28 utc | 41
It is in fact true that the Evil Rooskies ran out of shells, bombs and missiles over a year ago. And all this talk of hypersonic weapons is just more fake news.
The truth, I can reveal, is that said Evil Rooskies are using satanic combat wizards, mostly Siberian and a few renegade Sami shamans; they can hurl hypersonic thunderbolts a thousand miles or more. Hordes of leshies are ready to devour nazis, whom they really, really don't like. There's also a battalion of djinni from Syria, and Iranian mullahs on flying carpets. There are unconfirmed rumors of chaos witches who can blow up tanks by remotely decoupling covalent bonds in metallic and ceramic alloys; they use scrying mirrors to locate their targets. In the Chinese Pamirs, the Inscrutable Ones are preparing a massive invasion force of battle dragons to invade and subdue Taiwan.
Remember, you read it here first.
Posted by: pasha | Apr 10 2023 20:35 utc | 42
Posted by: pasha | Apr 10 2023 20:35 utc | 40
oy guy stop, you are spreading super secret info of the russians :3
Posted by: Macpott | Apr 10 2023 20:39 utc | 43
I am, of course, interested to know the truth behind these reportedly "leaked" documents. The respected commentariat here and elsewhere has not come to a consensus thus far, but over time may eventually get there.
For my part, I will let you all work at it - and I appreciate the effort, I really do - but I believe that the search is a tangent. There is another channel, called reality, to which the real decision-makers are tuned in. If the documents are "real," it does not mean they are accurate - or even reflect honest errors. Knowing the intended audience/recipient of these briefs would be quite helpful. If they are not real, the purpose has nothing to do with fooling the Russians. I am sure the Russians know what they need to know.
Posted by: Activist Potato | Apr 10 2023 20:44 utc | 44
The most consequential item in the leak is prospect of very low amount of S-300 and BUK-M1 missiles, already having effect on air defense as witnessed by lot of guided bomb air sorties. It will be difficult to concentrate multiple brigade sized mech formations out in the open. During lull, the vehicles can be hidden in towns and cities between tall buildings and garages etc. though.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 10 2023 20:47 utc | 45
If these documents are legitimate, then they were first printed on paper (for some reason), then photographed under the glare of a single incandescent light bulb (implying a closet), using a cheap camera that didn’t correct the color balance (implying someone who couldn’t afford a decent digital camera like cell phones have had for years).
I’d be looking for a janitor.
Posted by: Dalit | Apr 10 2023 20:50 utc | 46
Wait what? Are NATO ( and US of A by default) admit they are committing combat troops to Ukraine?
The very first slide B put up says that if the 12 battalions, NATO will be training and equipping 9 of them. Died this mean just hardware, or the software (I.e. people) to make all that hardware work? If it is what I think it is, there is no way they Neil be able to hide all the maimed and dead bodies that come back.
I hope someone in the current administration has actually thought this out. Would be truly embarrassing to have US service taken prisoner by Russia.
Posted by: drsmith | Apr 10 2023 21:00 utc | 47
I posted the Yves Smith link on the earlier open thread ... read it earlier today .. I've read Yves for years .... huge respect
Whatever, whichever, and whither I'm also reminded of an old adage of guerrilla warfare ...
# The Map is Not the Territory.
But what this 'leak' does do is inflict some damage to US relations with its 'allies' .... rem the furore about bugging Merkel's phone -
Rumour that the Pentagon is feverishly seeking supplies of old typewriters ... higher priority than artillery shells apparently ...
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 10 2023 21:05 utc | 48
biden and his clan, gang, are common criminals.
they have the aspersion and motivation of a criminal.
he just happens to have the title “president “
many surreptitious deals have been conducted between biden and ukraine
the nord-stream leek and this current leek, might be earnest people
attempting to reign back his demented foreign police.
Posted by: Dingo | Apr 10 2023 21:05 utc | 49
LEAK IS A LIMITED HANGOUT...if this was really a "leak" the NYT and other MSM would just NOT COVER THE LEAKS (as they do when it serves their purposes). Please note many of these headlines are intended to gaslight readers into calling for more action:
Example 1 from RT: "Russia almost shot down British spy plane – WaPo". Oooooh-Russia almost shot down a British spy plane--OMG!!! Maybe we should send them some F-16's!!!
Example 2: "US pilots ordered to keep distance from Crimea – WaPo". So there's a No Go Zone for the US?
CIA/DoD wants MSM to run with their LIMITED HANGOUT HEADLINES for 30 days or so to keep Bad News Bakhmut off the front pages.
Posted by: Dulles_Did_Dallas | Apr 10 2023 21:08 utc | 50
The purpose of the "leak(s)" was to get all the Putin Fanboys on MoA to spend a week fantasizing with their ridiculous and ignorant theories of "what it all means".
Mission accomplished.
Posted by: Longhorn | Apr 10 2023 21:10 utc | 51
@ drsmith | Apr 10 2023 21:00 utc | 45
This administration has already passed on the dark side and beyond embarrassment, so one or one hundred thousand US G.I. Joes KIA or MIA wouldn't matter for them. Also to anyone else except their families. And nobody needs such tragedy on top of the current one.
To US government should be really very clear that if they commit any troops on the territory of Ukraine officially and as combatants, they will be shot at full power, probably hunted along the battlespace even more than Ukrainians are.
There are many things that are not clear to and throughout US/NATO, as those leaked docs apparently show.
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 10 2023 21:13 utc | 52
@ pasha | Apr 10 2023 20:35 utc | 40
more of this! thanks..
@ Longhorn | Apr 10 2023 21:10 utc | 49
in your wildest fantasies.. less of this.. thanks..
Posted by: james | Apr 10 2023 21:19 utc | 53
Operation Mincemeat was one of several stratagems used by the British in WW2 to deceive the Germans.
Consider the US as the successor power to the British Empire. Would the US be willing to release valuable information if that is what it takes to feed the Russian general staff false information? Undoubtedly.
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 10 2023 21:19 utc | 54
A bunch of mischief so I’ll add a bit of mine.
It’s a desperate attempt to induce the Russian winter offensive that never came.
All because all the Ukrops have been waiting for them in their lovely warm dry trenches. 🤪
Rope-a-dope going too well to fall for this pathetic attempt at feinting weakness.
The only surprise attack that would be a ‘Hail Mary’ for the natzos is a direct seaborne invasion of Crimea! That would be a bay of pigs x thousands!
Nothing to do but wait. Guess the Akhmat boys will be on the move again once they have their warm spring to play with the New Azov idiots - many they already beat and captured at Mariupol last year.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Apr 10 2023 21:30 utc | 55
Milites @39--
Thanks for your reply. Escobar's back in Moscow and was interviewed today by RT, The 13 min video mostly reiterates his SCF column I linked above, but he does emphasize the one main point that the docs make clear and that's the undeclared war status between Russa and NATO.
Your point is why IMO there'll be no more Ukraine--not even in name only. Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian President, PM and current Security Council Deputy Chairman, and head of the Russia United political party recently wrote a short essay on Twitter, "WHY WILL UKRAINE DISAPPEAR? BECAUSE NOBODY NEEDS IT" that has shaken some western feathers--the tweet Musk said he'll allow to stand:
1. Europe doesn’t need Ukraine. The forced support of the Nazi regime, by the American mentor’s order, has put Europeans into a financial and political inferno. All for the sake of bandera’s unterukraine, that even the snobby, insolent Polacks don’t take for a valid country, and time and again toss in the issue of its western areas anschluss. There’s a nice perspective ahead: to permanently put the nouveau-Ukrainian blood-sucking parasites on the decrepit EU’s arthritis-crippled neck. That’ll be the final fall of Europe, once majestic, but robbed off by degeneration.2. The US doesn’t need Ukraine. True, the military and sanction campaigns are attempted for PR by political blabbermouths, who long ago attested to their impotence and imbecility. Average Americans don’t understand what “Ukraine” is, and where “it” is. Most of them won’t show this “power” on the map on the first take. Why won’t the US establishment focus on inflation and job issues, or emergencies in their home States, instead of a country 404, unbeknownst to them? Why does so much dough go across the ocean?
Sooner or later, they’ll ask for that. Then, storming of the Capitol in January 2021 would seem like scout games.
3. Africa and Latin America don’t need Ukraine. The hundreds of millions spent by US on pointless fights in Ukraine, could finance many development programmes for Latin American and African states.
Latin America is gringos’ backyard – that’s what they’ve been rubbing in for decades. Africa’s had its share of suffering from the genocide, and colonial dependence, imposed by former western slave traders. That’s why the people of African huts and Latin American favelas ask a very reasonable question: for their former suffering and present-day loyalty, why is somebody else rewarded – very, very far away?
4. Asia doesn’t need Ukraine. By Russia’s example, they see “colour” technologies at work to eradicate the largest competing powers. They understand what scenario the America-led collective West has for them if they disobey. “Help us to overcome Russia, and we’ll soon come to you”, the utterly brazen Western leaders tell them. Such gigantic countries as India, China, and other Asia-Pacific states face the big enough challenge of post-pandemic economic recovery, let aside the drugged clowns, with their whining for aid.
“We are not interested in you”, Asia tells their messengers, responding to the calls to support Ukraine and confine Russia. The country, geopolitically many times closer to Asian powers, the one that historically has proven itself a reliable strategic partner. Do Asian giants need such headache coming from former colonisers?
5. Russia doesn’t need Ukraine. A threadbare quilt, torn, shaggy, and greasy. The new Malorossiya of 1991 is made up of the artificially cut territories, many of which are indigenously Russian, separated by accident in the 20th century. Millions of our compatriots live there, harassed for years by the Nazi Kiev regime. It is them who we defend in our special military operation, relentlessly eradicating the enemy. We don’t need unterukraine. We need Big Great Russia.
6. Finally, its own citizens don’t need the Nazi-headed Ukraine. That’s why out of 45 million people there’re only some 20 million remaining. That’s why those who stayed want to leave for any place: the hated Poland, EU, NATO, to be America’s 51nd state. Joining the Antarctic with its pinguins will also be fine. As long as it’s quiet, and the food’s good. The ruling junta’s criminal ambitions forced Ukrainians to beg and roam around the countries and continents, searching for a better life. All that is for an obscure European perspective. Or rather, to let the harlequin in a khaki tricot and his band of thievish Nazi clowns to put the money stolen from the West into their offshore accounts. Would ordinary Ukrainians need that?
Nobody on this planet needs such a Ukraine. That’s why it will disappear. [Paragraph breaks mine]
That Musk let it stand speaks volumes that IMO outweighs the "leak." How many on the Security Council share his POV is unknown, but IMO it's more than just him; and then how many in the Duma and regions? Polling results from asking that Q would be very interesting. But most important IMO, is there's no real propaganda in the essay. Musk's reply was reported by RT:
Twitter CEO Elon Musk has rejected calls to crack down on the account of former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev after the latter published a post declaring that Ukraine would eventually vanish from the world map.One user asked the billionaire why he allowed “Russian leaders back on the platform” and why he did not abide by the Western sanctions while attaching Medvedev’s tweet. The ex-Russian president had claimed that Ukraine would sooner or later disappear because neither the global community nor its own citizens have a need for it.
“All news is to some degree propaganda. Let people decide for themselves,” Musk replied on Sunday. He later tweeted that the social media platform “will neither promote nor limit their [Russian officials’] accounts, but we will rapidly address any attempts at gaming the system.”
“It is a weak move to engage in censorship just because others do so. Letting our press be free when theirs is not demonstrates strength,” he added.
In April 2022, after Moscow started its military campaign against Ukraine, Twitter slapped restrictions on Russian state-affiliated handles, including the official Kremlin account.
At the time, the social media platform said it would “not amplify or recommend government accounts belonging to states that limit access to free information and are engaged in armed interstate conflict.”
Russia blocked Twitter in early March 2022 after the nation’s media watchdog, Roskomnadzor, accused the platform of spreading misinformation about the Ukraine conflict.
The last part above we now know to be correct thanks to the Twitter Files.
Would Musk finance RFKjr?
Oh hey b you have it all wrong, experts say https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-10/russia-ukraine-spring-offensives-2023-war-decisive-stage/102196436
And the Beijing visit you described must be all wrong too, it was like this https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-11/taiwan-meeting-how-does-china-react-macron-mccarthy-tsai-ukraine/102204752
Anyway I had this wishful thinking prophecy happen while playing a computer game: I met some players who didn’t respond. I was scared. But they were responding slow because they were translating. We trade gifts like tribes meeting - I put something on the ground and say “friend” and they did the same. When I realised they were Chinese I pretty much apologised for being Australian and acknowledged that our media and politicians are very racist. We play and trade. Later I become surrounded by zombies and am about to die… they came and saved me!
I know it is silly and codependent and wishful thinking, and many of my own family would scoff derisively, but maybe one day China will be so gracious as to save Australia from the zombie western zero-sum short-term greed bullshit.
Posted by: Rae | Apr 10 2023 21:37 utc | 57
This is all that I could find:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Cicke69/status/1644814470168956928
https://mobile.twitter.com/WinRussiawill/status/1644715862148931586
https://mobile.twitter.com/clashreport/status/1644654326328049664
https://mobile.twitter.com/onlydjole/status/1644123473898270725
And these are all known already, and all posted within the last 5 days. Several are too low resolution to make out ANY words or details, and thus give us nothing.
Posted by: team10tim | Apr 10 2023 21:38 utc | 58
Regarding the supposedly leaked docs, one thing intrigued me from the begining, the fact that those docs are photos of printed documents. At that level, Joint Chiefs of Staffs and even below, nobody uses printed docs anymore, for quite some time, everything is digital. In fact, there are numerous types of docs which you can't even print anymore, even if you want to. This standard came from the US and was adopted everywhere in NATO.
Posted by: Razvan | Apr 10 2023 21:44 utc | 59
Well, if both sides decline to attack and launch offensives this summer is could the war just end with current lines being the new iron curtain?
Kadyrov is publicly saying that ukraine should go first, so that means its in russias interest they do so.
The US is also insistent on one? Do they want ukraine to lose and negotiate an end?
What if they held a war and no one showed up?
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 10 2023 21:46 utc | 60
Big Serge just now ...
Russo-Ukrainian War: Leak Biopsy
A Russian Nesting Doll of Embarrassment
... While I will not be posting the leaked documents either here or on twitter, I would like to talk about them. If they are indeed authentic (and it appears that they are), they offer important insight into force generation and combat power in Ukraine - and perhaps even more importantly, into the intelligence framework that the Pentagon is working with. None of the items adduced paint a particularly rosy picture for either the AFU or its benefactors on the Atlantic seaboard.
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-leak-biopsy
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 10 2023 21:49 utc | 61
Big Serge weighs in on the leaks in a new Substack post...
Russo-Ukrainian War: Leak Biopsy
A Russian Nesting Doll of Embarrassment
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-leak-biopsy
Now, the obvious question is whether the documents are real. There’s probably at least some rational basis to suspect a misinformation operation. All militaries engage in a range of intermingling intelligence (seeing what the enemy is doing), counterintelligence (hiding what you are doing), and misinformation (lying about what you are doing). Perhaps, one may muse, these documents were not leaked at all, but indelibly planted on the internet to mislead.I was originally rather agnostic about the documents’ authenticity, but I have come to the view that they are genuine (let’s rate it a 90% likelihood of authenticity and a 10% likelihood of forgery or misinformation). My reasons are essentially as follows:...
Read the rest to assess whether his reasons are adequate. I have no opinion at this stage.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 10 2023 21:52 utc | 62
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 10 2023 21:49 utc | 59
Beat me by three minutes - the time it took to compose my post! LOL
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 10 2023 21:52 utc | 63
funny how the leaks were initially called "russian hacks" in some MSM outlets when they're physical print outs. granted, the "russian hackers" could have wasted their time by printing out hacked files but that's just dumb.
it's also a sign these are "limited hangout" controlled leaks as anyone who even glanced at the reality winner debacle knows the feds can tell 1. who printed the files and where from their IT logs and 2. which exact printer was used if they can see the tiny code embedded on each page (which would require physical access but is hardly needed given #1). so it was either someone very, very stupid or very not afraid of being caught. possibly both.
as for the content; meh. a bunch of widely known stuff (we spy on our allies?!?! OMG NO WAI!!!!!11!!) and retarded opinions mixed with retarded strategies that haven't worked for the past year and never will. i love that they appeared on 4chan and discord, though. seems like they know where to get their kwality lulz.
Posted by: the pair | Apr 10 2023 21:53 utc | 64
Sorry b, these 'leaks' are a complete psyop.
What we're seeing here is a phenomenon I voiced a fear of some months ago on this site:
The point where just enough "truth" is being told to mask the lethal lies that follow.
The day when nine truths will be told so that one lie can be believed.
The day when a vessel of truth is created to contain a single lethal draught of lie ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 10 2023 21:54 utc | 65
For fun, I go to Douglas Macgregor's YT channel and read the video synopsis's from 5 months ago. Highly and entertaining and much recommended.
Alternatively, you can go back a year on MoA and read the informed commentary from then. Again, highly entertaining.
Posted by: Longhorn | Apr 10 2023 21:56 utc | 67
If you count 9-10 mobilization rounds 60-80k/round, then continuous round, and latest round 500k, Ukraine has mobilized well over 1 million people, probably at least 1.2-1.3 million. That on top of the original 200k or so army. If you don't see a very successful operation in the next 4 weeks, that means cohesion and combat effectiveness, and armaments have dropped to the point where they can no longer recover to do anything requiring any larger scale commitment or logistics. Every day it doesn't happen, it becomes harder.
BMA analysis made a very good article about this, declining unit cohesion, earlier, which is probably the single most important factor.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 10 2023 22:04 utc | 68
any possibility these docs have been created by AI? just another loose cannon in the wilderness..
Posted by: james | Apr 10 2023 22:12 utc | 69
a psyop.
I have been out of dod work for >5years but…..
we could only do sensitive “work” on approve data systems, and had to log all access.
printing was frowned on and logged
the amount of blither from the 5 sided wind tunnel is wrong!
you never comment on a “breach”, that does half the enemy’s job.
Posted by: paddy | Apr 10 2023 22:13 utc | 70
# 49
Your logical argument in your post, reduces to:
The military leaks that “went public” was to get
A website exited about it.
Thinking is a discipline
Repetition turns into discipline , in your example
Never mind that’s it’s narrow though and absurd
Posted by: Dingo | Apr 10 2023 22:13 utc | 71
Merkin Scot #2
TAs for the rest of us, what the WP or NYT say is of no importance whatsoever except for the comedy value.
Indeed, indeed. Thank you.
Its typical that these documents are said by Yves Smith to have emerged in Telegram without directly linking and then in the current report. You have to go another linked NC report and put up with this post by Yves Smith which opens with a smoochy pass at Elon Musk before you even get to the nub of the story...:/ Why do we have to see this turd at every turn even in so-called alt media.
Second, former CIA analyst Larry Johnson parsed the distribution list. These reports were very widely circulated. From his post:Images of what appears to be the Daily written brief for the “Russia/Ukraine Joint Staff J3/J4/J5” popped up on the Donbass Devushka yesterday and has not created much of a stir. Donbass Devushka has four of the documents on line. They appear authentic. One is classified as “SECRET/REL TO FIN, UKR, FVEY, NATO” and is date 28 FEB 23. (You can see the documents for your self at this link.)
The phrase, “REL TO FIN, UKR, FVEY, NATO” means that this document is available to Finland, Ukraine, the Five Eyes Nations (i.e., Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and the members of NATO.
One wonders, for instance, how many at each of the Five Eyes saw these reports. Anyone who got them is a potential leakers. The list of suspects is large.1
I would put Ukrainians at the top of the list of potential tell-alls.
At least Larry Johnson included a link to Donbass Devushka at Telegram who displays this : https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/2 and links to Discord with this text:
https://discord.gg/letoDiscord (http://discord.gg/leto)
Join the national.funposting.agency Discord Server!
Gamers and weirdos only. WARNING ONLY WEIRD PEOPLE ALLOWED! | 24,400 members
So the Gray Lady has a few aliases and parrots it seems.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 10 2023 22:13 utc | 72
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 10 2023 21:52 utc | 60
Read the rest to assess whether his reasons are adequate. I have no opinion at this stage.
I'm with Mr. Hack on this. Frankly what interests me most about Big Serge is that his Substack address is listed as Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland.
Go figure.
Posted by: Mexicana | Apr 10 2023 22:15 utc | 73
@44
to get in the area where you can access sensitive machines you have to check personal electronics….
Posted by: paddy | Apr 10 2023 22:20 utc | 74
karlof1 #54
Would Musk finance RFKjr?
Thank you for that post. Musk is bound to offer pieces of silver to some candidate. But I trust that intelligent candidates can see Musk as the limited hangout he is and avoid him like the plague.
Given the corrupt mechanisms in US politics to buy your candidate, perhaps the Kennedy show will simply copy the Sanders crowd funding model and scorn the corporates. If not then I guess we will learn something.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 10 2023 22:27 utc | 75
Many of you may not enjoy the cuisine of Mc Donalds. However you know you can go to anyone of these outlets in the world and get the same result. The main course of the menu on this offering seems to be that Russians can not trust each other.
Posted by: steve | Apr 10 2023 22:29 utc | 76
Arch Bungle #63
The point where just enough "truth" is being told to mask the lethal lies that follow.
Exactly that.
Ukraine was given the kiss of death a few months or more ago and every day since there has been a shower of lethal kisses. From zero Abrams tanks to maybe a couple of clapped out ones stripped of 'high tech' fittings. Then not enough artillery shells to maybe one or two hundred a day and then some Israeli air defence systems right when Israel seems to have a pressing need for them.
And so on.
Ukraine is for the dumpster. Medvedev has announced its extinguishment meaning all those Lend Lease and IMF and EU loans have no one to serve notice on as it were. Poland is now chanting necromancer hymns to marry up with the Baltic poodles and resurrect some decrepit historical empire of tragic syphilitic souls. It has come to this farce :/
Yep Ukraine is gone and the good people remaining on that land will be Russian. While the Ukronazis and associated hysterics will be eating the host in Europe etc.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 10 2023 22:44 utc | 77
"leaks"... more like just more wmd
Weapons of Mass Distraction, which most in this subsection of the media sphere that even bother to cover Ukraine, seem to be eating up, hook line and sinker - at least as far as wasting lots of virtual ink on it. BTW can someone tell me what's been "leaked" that wasn't already known or previously reported in large part, cause I've seen nothing "new" in any of the 3-4 images of pages that are available, as for the mythical other stuff...well it's remain just that to me till shown otherwise. -2c
Posted by: knighthawk | Apr 10 2023 22:44 utc | 78
The charts language makeup feels pretty AI.
Also, why hasn't NATO sent these?
Posted by: persiflo | Apr 10 2023 22:56 utc | 79
"The disclosure of highly classified material already represents Washington’s worst national security breach in many years, including details about Ukraine’s lack of ammunition, US intelligence collection methods used against Russia, and embarrassing evidence pointing to US spying on close allies such as Ukraine, South Korea and Israel. Analysts suggest the damage to the US could still get much worse."
Oh dear, what a pity, never mind.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Apr 10 2023 23:03 utc | 80
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra No. 31
It's called an "off ramp". Like so many other recent "off ramps"
Thanks for the better definition.
Posted by: young | Apr 10 2023 23:11 utc | 81
Posted by: paddy | Apr 10 2023 22:13 utc | 68
Call me, crazy (and many have), but my first impression was, that splashy graphic design format is entirely out of US agency character (corporate identity). Whatever the content authenticity or credibility scarcely matters.
Posted by: sln2002 | Apr 10 2023 23:18 utc | 82
Related to the Big Picture is this item Escobar highly suggested a few days ago that I just finished reading, "The Geopolitics of the Color Revolutions", which is excerpted from Alexander Dugin's 2015 book Last War of the World-Island. The header's introduction: "Alexander Dugin highlights the struggle between Eurasianism and Atlanticism in the post-Soviet space, marked by CIS integration processes and color revolutions." I found the read as important as Pepe implied, particularly the closing two paragraphs. But what I found most important is the implication that much of what transpired during the new 21st Century was planned during Clinton's two terms as Russia was being deliberately dismembered and put into the critical care unit.
Some voices are opining that the "leak" is an attempt to find an exit from what's become a massive debacle in Ukraine as everything that could go wrong seems to have, which is why the most overt message is the undeclared war status and the real danger that presents to the Empire since it cannot defend against Russia's weaponry. While lurking in the background is the realization that the banking crisis is very real and quite near.
The vapors emanating from the big kettle on the fire titillating the three crones will hopefully remain within their cave and they'll fail to get the remaining items needed to complete their brew.
Posted by: sln2002 | Apr 10 2023 23:18 utc | 80
Tbh, it all looks like some kind of cartoon that probably some university on-the-job-trainees in some US think tank (like Atlantic Council) might do. All very colorful and nice looking, something to please the bosses.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 10 2023 23:31 utc | 84
Nothing goes out of the wolves den unless it is supposed to go out.
for Russia this conflict is the same as if Mexico would be willing to take back what America stole from them. An existential threat. The Russian resolve to take whatever it takes to win is enough to hump up all NATO. Besides, who is prepared to win does not need convenient leaked docs but it is good for those in despair to allocate more resources from taxpayers money.
The world will be a better place to live without the greatest terrorist nation to ever live on the planet.
Posted by: Fred | Apr 10 2023 23:52 utc | 86
Musk is fully in on the scam, twitter will be the only 'free speach' platform helping it raise it's stock value and helping avoid the total distruction of American propaganda outlets.
These leaks sure seem to place a lot of blame on non US groups. Go figue.
Posted by: OohCanada | Apr 10 2023 23:57 utc | 87
Re Big Serge Substack on the leaked documents.
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-leak-biopsy
The Question - paragraph 46
One must wonder how, and perhaps even more importantly why someone would do this.
The Answer - paragraphs 37 and 38
The American military increasingly seems to be a hollowed out simulacrum of its past glories, decaying behind a façade of shiny machines and bloated budgets - a trillion dollar technobureaucratic jobs program coasting on the residual patriotic fumes of red state American boys.
It has long been apparent that the Kiev regime has no real plan, no firm path to victory, and only a tenuous and unfriendly relationship with reality. Far more terrifying is the thought that the Pentagon is much the same.
Posted by: Sushi | Apr 11 2023 0:02 utc | 88
March 1st briefing papers for JCS leaked on Minecraft server. Master Sgt Jaun, JCS Int Spec, found dead in Pentagram parking lot March 14. Coincidence or conspiracy?
Anyhoo, what this really confirms is why the US military can never win a war or plan a withdrawal successfully.
I have often wondered why Russia still keeps the gloves on in this fight? 106 recently released POWs could be a small portion of the answer.
Posted by: Suresh | Apr 11 2023 0:04 utc | 89
leaks about Ukraine’s lack of ammunition looks to me like an invitation for another russian offensive and the ukras are good at defense, but not at offensives (lack of skills, troops and materials) - it is suspicious.
all the new 9 brigades are ready by end of april - so if bakhmut falls before, the russkies will have
time to straighten the front and release troops - is it what the ukras are afraid most?
btw pure pr actions : ukras are setting up "many" new units, is it disastrous to fill up old ones and talk about it?
Posted by: gpc | Apr 11 2023 0:06 utc | 90
Alistair Crooke seems to think that the natsec mandarins have had enough of the immature-delusional even-judgements of neocons Sullivan, Nuland, Blinken et al. They’re going to hand up the administration. Could be that?
Posted by: Robski | Apr 11 2023 0:10 utc | 91
Fred # 84
America kicked Mexico's ass fair and square. This lands are our lands, unless Joe Biden continues to enable unlimited immigration from Latin America. Real soon now all of the folks who were enlisting to go to war in Afghanistan and Iraq to avenge the 9-11 attacks will be self deploying to the Mexican border to transform the border into a free fire kill zone.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Apr 11 2023 0:10 utc | 92
Dulles_Did_Dallas #48
CIA/DoD wants MSM to run with their LIMITED HANGOUT HEADLINES for 30 days or so to keep Bad News Bakhmut off the front pages.
Well they have succeeded for 48 hours at least.
By the way, I recall Debbie did Dallas but then that was some time ago and genders change I guess.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 11 2023 0:12 utc | 93
For many months it has been obvious that Russia's tactic is to replicate Falkenhayn's original plan at Verdun: to compel the enemy to bleeding itself to death trying to hold politically important territory or would have been better advised to abandon. In Verdun, as Alan Clark wrote, the plan came so close to success that another month of Falkenhayn's "mincing machine" would have destroyed the whole French army. In Artëmovsk, the Russian side has what Germany didn't at Verdun: overwhelming escalation dominance and air superiority. As such Russia, unlike Germany which was taking 1:1 casualties at Verdun, can continue this virtually indefinitely, as long as Elensky continues to push soldiers into the cauldron. The question is what Elensky's nazis and other regulars, including NATOstani "volunteers", are up to while Wagner is grinding the blueyellow conscripts into the ground and mixing them into the mud. At the very least they're fortifying the Slavyansk Kramatorsk line, their fourth and last defence line in Donbass. They also are definitely preparing sorties into prewar Russian territory across the northern border. What they are not doing is sitting still.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 11 2023 0:16 utc | 94
Posted by: Sushi | Apr 11 2023 0:02 utc | 86
"It has long been apparent that the Kiev regime has no real plan, no firm path to victory, and only a tenuous and unfriendly relationship with reality. Far more terrifying is the thought that the Pentagon is much the same."
pretty close to truth about the military industry complex, which is using the influential neocon/neolib think tanks to sustain their profitability!
think about the word integrity, its root in integer which means unity or wholeness.
integrity in the pentagon is same as the roman legion, one with the sharing of the plunder!
it is only worrisome if you think they would blow up the world if their profit mill were threatened!
or if biden is dumb enough to think the f-16 can do as good as elensky thinks it can.....
the spec sheets and the pentagon's weapons are two separate entities!
Posted by: paddy | Apr 11 2023 0:19 utc | 95
THIRD AND LAST POST: WHERE THE 4-PAGES WERE FIRST POSTED
At 04/06/23(Thu)01:33:13 a “anon” with a US flagposted the first doc on 4chan in thread:#422407070
post number: #422410051
Comment: “as of March 1st Russia has lost 35.5k to 43.5k and Ukraine less than half that
Outnumbering Ukies on all front and Russia is only able to make marginal gains
Its fucking over Zizters”
Why did “anon” post this? Because he wanted to win an argument on the image board against pro-Russian posters.
It was the ultimate “source” (or sauce, in 4-chan parlance).
Was “anon” dumb for posting?
Yes.
All 4chan threads are assiduously monitored by intel (FBI, confirmed by documents filed in court cases over a decade, and other alphabet agencies, termed “glowies” by 4chan, as intel agents are non-organic posters and “glow in the dark” /stand out/)
Because anon’s post was spotted, a (presumably) intel agent posted:
“Delete this now please. We will be able to find you from the crease pattern.”
>US flag 04/06/23(Thu)01:49:34 No.422411674
The doc poster replied:
“No”
And uploaded another document.
>US flag 04/06/23(Thu)01:50:12 No.422411747
In all the 4pages were uploaded in that thread.
That was the very first time the docs appeared on the internet
There’s a function on 4chan to do a “reverse image search” to confirm if a poster is uploading something original, or is simply rehashing something previous.
Once the 4pages were posted, multiple (multiple/multiple/multiple) new threads sprang up and it was confirmed the docs were “fresh pasta”.
Nothing that has been posted on twitter, telegram or elsewhere predates that 4chan timestamp.
The 4pages kept from that thread to flood 4chan, and then leapt across the internet.
About 2hours after the “gotcha”:winning post, new docs started appearing, and these were obvious photoshops, with the numbers of Ukraine - Russia KIA modified so that now Russia was “winning”.
“Shills” (presumably paid) hit the threads pointing out the obvious photoshop and claiming all docs were fake and it was all Russian propaganda…..
In fact you can read some of the very same diversionary and well poisoning arguments here in this MoA thread.
Larry Johnson, Yves Smith, Big Serge and everyone else is just coming very late, days and days late to the party. People are looking to them as “reliable” sources on this, but they have no more clue than the rest.
All that Larry can confirm is that the docs look like genuine intel work products.
This was not the first time 4chan has been the vehicle for leaked docs or anonymous tips that are spine-tingling prescient.
Like the warning 24hours ahead of the Las Vegas mass shooting.
Or J6, where anons were repeated warned the FBI had agent-provocateurs in MAGA hats.
You might not “like” that 4chan is the source. Because it’s a sewer.
Regardless. 4chan IS the source for the first uploading of the docs.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 11 2023 0:30 utc | 96
The institution from which these documents supposedly come is a huge bureaucracy. for every 50 documents of this kind, there are some 50,000 a day, and they may all paint a different picture. A part of some intern's morning presentation, an ill-informed attempt to delve into reality thousands of miles away from his/her desk, only to see these papers in the dumpster by lunchtime.
Posted by: Nomad | Apr 11 2023 0:30 utc | 97
Posted by: Longhorn | Apr 10 2023 21:56 utc | 65
I once had a relative who kept her house spotlessly tidy, one day we brought a friend along to visit who happened to be a psychologist. Waiting in the car, after our visit, the friend said something unexpected, ‘I wonder what made her love dirt so much?’ We said surely the opposite was the case, she hated dirt, he smiled and said, ‘perhaps, but to have a house so clean you have to actively go looking for dirt, suggesting a deep emotional affinity for the substance.’
So, do you hate making mistakes or have an emotional affinity toward them? I only ask, because your, posts, mocking in tone, have a tendency to focus on the perceived failings of others, rarely contribute anything to the discussion at hand and are non-committal.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 11 2023 0:35 utc | 99
IMO, this is the only serious battle plan:
ukras can break through to sea of azov with 20-30,000 soldiers plus massive artillery/drones/himars + glide bombs, then destroy the bridge over kerch and stop supplies to Crimea, but do they have enough men and material to hold this then - how long?
and if so, they can take Crimea hostage and blackmail ruskies for another minsk3.
I cant see any other "targets" for an successfull offensive - any ideas from you all here?
Posted by: gpc | Apr 11 2023 0:39 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
B said "I was cautious after the first release was discussed in major U.S. media"
This may relate, as this video was also removed in the USA.
Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout sends Donald Trump letter warning his life is in danger
Video. https://twitter.com/AbrahamStein8/status/1645482907853627412?s=20
Posted by: Dave Oneil | Apr 10 2023 17:45 utc | 1