“On April 4, we insisted that Zaluzhny considers such an offensive to be “suicide.”
But the West needs precisely the Azov offensive, which will cause the maximum image and moral damage to Russia.” Down South | Apr 19 2023 18:08 utc | 3
A preemptive strike by the Russians? And who is interested in the judgment of Russia’s moral image by the brainwashed and subjugated ignoramuses of the collective west?
The Straussians (neo-talmudists) are evil without limits. Their ugly puppet Zelensky will send more Ukrainians to die. The Zio-Nazification of Ukraine is bearing its poisonous fruit.

Posted by: Cerena | Apr 19 2023 18:40 utc | 4

@ Down South | Apr 19 2023 18:08 utc | 3
d’accord mon ami, it is the only logical strategy for ukras.
may I add an amplification of this image- and moral damage to russia from afu with a big boom:
they like to destroy the bridges on the kerch street at the beginning immediately, if not before the offensive. it is possible and maybe it will be not entirely carried out by the afu/sbu alone.
just my three broken cents here, no source today.

Posted by: gpc | Apr 19 2023 18:41 utc | 6

There is much talk about Ukraine‘s counteroffensive recently.
Foreign Policy writes about Ukraine‘s D-day. They even quote German Field Marshal Erwin Rommel: „The first 24 hours will be decisive. It will be the longest day for us and the Allies“
When they are evoking memories of D-day, it becomes obvious what‘s at stake.
For NATO it‘s all or nothing.

Posted by: Lesjeuxsontfaits | Apr 19 2023 18:47 utc | 8

Ukie D-Day ain’t happening yet!
Amazing 1st person footage of Russians storming Uke trenches. Intense!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzL3rUfF_wY

Posted by: LGB! | Apr 19 2023 18:52 utc | 10

Total destruction here, and definitely it wasn’t an empty field — there are ruins, shells and burnt equipment all over the place:
https://twitter.com/ArthurM40330824/status/1648579371773448192

The result of #Russian high-precision bomb FAB-500 on the ammunition depot of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine in #Kupyansk. You can see a lot of shells of caliber 152/155 mm strewn about.

The question is how is it possible that even after such devastation RU has only advanced by a couple miles in that direction since January….

Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 19 2023 19:23 utc | 12

Ukrainian rhetoric increasingly hysterical and contradictory.
Redefine the counteroffensive downward. Resort to psychological coping victories instead of military ones.
I would make an analogy with two guys in a bar. Who do you want beside you in a fight? The loudmouth who brazenly tries to puff up his chest and take on the bouncer, or the quiet guy in the booth who keeps silent (but is actually an ex army ranger and martial arts practioner?)

Posted by: Chris | Apr 19 2023 19:29 utc | 14

T | Apr 19 2023 19:25 utc | 15
https://cairnsnews.org/2023/03/01/russian-missile-hits-strategic-80-metre-deep-nato-bunker/

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 19 2023 19:37 utc | 16

@LGB! | Apr 19 2023 18:52 utc | 11
Don’t know if that footage is genuine or not. Ground is dry, the guys green tape is all clean and shiny, the explosions with shrapnel are most ineffective. Anyway, here’s an example of the blast crater the fab’s cause.
https://t.me/intelslava/46978

Posted by: gT | Apr 19 2023 19:59 utc | 18

No one on this site or almost anywhere else has predicted the course of this war correctly. Only the Russian MOD knows what lies ahead. But it is clear that Ukraine will lose this war–but only if Russia prevents it from happening. The Ukrainians and NATO have gone all in just to keep the Russians contained in the Donbass. Whether there is a spring/summer offensive or not, Ukraine and NATO will seek to negotiate only after the next-to-last Ukrainian has died and Russia is free to break out clear to the Dnieper and beyond. Ukraine will then hope world pressure will force Russia into an agreement before the latter’s original aims have been fulfilled–a complete demilitarization of Ukraine and elimination of all Azov fascist elements. If that occurs, Russia will have tragically snatched defeat from victory.

Posted by: FHTEX | Apr 19 2023 20:04 utc | 20

“The Ukrainian officers who are with their units in Bakhmut believe that this city should have been abandoned as soon as the “Wagner” units reached the key heights.”
https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1648777175422697475
What is going on here? During this year there have been comments in UAF of Bakhmut that should have been abandoned basically back in early January.
Ukrainian leadership is drunk on their ability to draft basically unlimited number of troops, up to 4000 per day. This gives them a false sense of being invincible in the war, and being able to have unlimited amount of men to throw around, which lowers the tolerance for holding these kind of forward defense positions like Bakhmut.
The other bet this whole thing is based on is getting a lot of weapons from Nato. They sacrifice the other fronts to be able to stockpile for the offensive between Orekhov and Ugledar. Also, I’d say Nato is fighting with 80 % capacity in Ukraine, due to basically every surplus weapon and even stockpiled weapon sent there, and they have also sent special forces, and “advisors” to operate weapons. This war what you are seeing in Ukraine, is what Nato can output close to full potential.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 19 2023 20:17 utc | 22

The outbreak in Kyiv, preliminary, was the result of a NASA space satellite falling to Earth, the Kyiv city military administration said.
https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1648789619981312003
NASA satellite fell over Kiev? What are the chances of that happening?
Maybe it was a satellite, but far more likely it was a US spy satellite. It was only a matter of time when that starts happening.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 19 2023 20:49 utc | 24

No one on this site or almost anywhere else has predicted the course of this war correctly. Only the Russian MOD knows what lies ahead. But it is clear that Ukraine will lose this war–but only if Russia prevents it from happening. The Ukrainians and NATO have gone all in just to keep the Russians contained in the Donbass. Whether there is a spring/summer offensive or not, Ukraine and NATO will seek to negotiate only after the next-to-last Ukrainian has died and Russia is free to break out clear to the Dnieper and beyond. Ukraine will then hope world pressure will force Russia into an agreement before the latter’s original aims have been fulfilled–a complete demilitarization of Ukraine and elimination of all Azov fascist elements. If that occurs, Russia will have tragically snatched defeat from victory.
Posted by: FHTEX | Apr 19 2023 20:04 utc | 21

Unfortunately, it is not clear that Russia will win the war. Russia will 100% win if it decides that it really wants to win. But that is where the big question mark lies.
Recall Prigozhin’s recent statements:

There are a huge number of conspiracy theories about the events of the 90s, and then 2014 – the Maidan in Ukraine and the transfer of Crimea under the control of the Russian Federation. There are a huge number of different prophecies that tell about the meanings of these events. One thing is absolutely clear – the United States and the Anglo-Saxon group have been hatching a plan for the collapse of the USSR for a long time, as the main geopolitical competitor. In the late 80s and early 90s, they managed to overlay the ruling elite of the USSR with a huge number of agents of influence, give new meanings that changed the ideology of the existence of this ruling elite, put the population on a consumer needle and destroy the USSR. The collapse of the USSR was the most painful, the most difficult collapse of empires over the past hundreds of years, but did not lead to the complete destruction of Russia and its division into small principalities.
The fragmentation of African states, the collapse of the former Warsaw Pact countries. The smaller the country, the easier it is to manage, the more financially dependent it is, the more obedient it is.
The basis of modern US policy is financial neo-colonialism. This is when even the richest countries in mineral resources do not process the wealth of their mineral resources, but are fully integrated into the production and financial flows offered by “Western partners” – becoming American satellites, subcontractors and puppets. Therefore, the final task of the United States in the Ukrainian confrontation is to launch powerful centrifugal impulses in Russia, weaken the power and national identity in society and force it to turn towards the West, as it was in the early 1990s. At the same time, of course, in order to exercise control over the political situation in the country, it is first and foremost to gain control over financial instruments within the system, over production capacities and over subsoil.
Today, when the special operation began, and the Russian Federation was not able to achieve the results that society expected, the United States has the opportunity to return to its original plan. The original plan, I repeat once again, was as follows: to destroy the Soviet Union, and then walk along the perimeter of the country and turn its former allies away from Russia. For 30 years, with many former republics, this has almost been achieved. We lost first full control, and then good neighborly relations.
The collapse of Russia by military means cannot happen. Forests, swamps, vast territories, climatic specifics reliably protect the country’s territory, making it a huge fortified area. Always in history, the enemy who reached Moscow, as a result shamefully fled, turning the “road of victory” into a “road of death” on the way back.
Why are the Anglo-Saxons holding Zelensky back, arranging internal conflicts and slowing down the offensive? Just in order to break the main jackpot – the collapse of Russia into many principalities. The US does not need a quick war. They need a war that will lead to the deep state’s persuasion and victory.
The Russian Deep State is a community of near-state elites that operate independently of the political leadership of the state and have close ties and their own agenda. These elites work for different masters: some for the existing government, some for those who have been on the run for a long time, but, thanks to their connections, even after the flight of the elders, they remain in their places. A typical example of the “deep state” is the spitting of Khodorkovsky, Dvorkovich and so on. Dvorkovich, who fled abroad, whom I mentioned many times, left behind a whole tail of scum who were under him and above him, and who are elements of this “deep state”. The Deep State leaks information endlessly and is ready to side with any ally or enemy for its own interests. The Deep State is easy to approach because it is a sponge within a country that is red on one side, black on the other, white on the third, and green on the fourth. And from each side, having a connection with a part of the “deep state”, you can get into its center. The Russian deep state is currently in a serious crisis.
Many of those who supported the special operation yesterday are now in doubt, or categorically against what is happening. The representatives of the deep state want to urgently return to their normal lives, old habits and comfort. The “Deep State” is cunning and dodgy, the conversation of Joseph Prigogine is a vivid example of this. They are ready to mimic anyone. This is our inner, affectionate, cunning, bloodthirsty chameleon.
At meetings they are silent, express their doubts. And when making decisions on bureaucratic procedures, certain actions aimed at winning this war are hindered. Since the bureaucracy in Russia today is at a transcendent level, within the framework of the “legitimate bureaucracy” it is possible to destroy any decisions of the top leadership aimed at winning. These are internal enemies. In the theory of Alexander Dmitrievich Beglov, this is called a “bureaucratic sieve” – ​​a sieve that you can get into, but impossible to get out of.
For the authorities and for society as a whole, today it is necessary to put a fat period on the SMO. The ideal option is to announce the end of the SMO, to inform everyone that Russia has achieved the results that it planned, and in a sense we have actually achieved them. We have ground a huge number of fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and we can report to ourselves that the tasks of the SMO have been completed.
Theoretically, Russia has already received this fat point by destroying a large part of the active male population of Ukraine, by intimidating another part of it, which fled to Europe. Russia cut off the Sea of ​​Azov and a large piece of the Black Sea, seized a fat piece of Ukrainian territory and created a land corridor to the Crimea. Now there is only one thing left: to firmly gain a foothold, to claw in those territories that already exist. But there is a slyness – if earlier Ukraine was a part of the former Russia, now it is an absolutely national-oriented state.
If before February 24, 2022, the European Union was greedy to give Ukraine tens of millions of dollars, now tens of billions are being turned off for the war. Of course, some of these funds please the pockets of the ruling elite of Ukraine, which benefits from the conflict. Many of those who were forgotten yesterday have received a new chance for self-realization and enrichment today.
Although the Ukrainian leadership is getting rich, due to the large losses of population at the front and the general fatigue from the war, the political leadership needs a victory. For Russia, there is always the risk that after the start of the counteroffensive, the situation at the front may worsen. Preserving the existing borders on February 24, 2023 is an exchange that the United States can offer the Russian leadership today as a negotiating position. For this, a “dramatic pause” is needed. If the government refuses, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine will go on the offensive. In this situation, there may be various options for the development of events. One of them is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will run into the defense of the Russian Federation, suffer serious losses, after which a colossal counteroffensive of the Russian troops will begin to the borders of the DPR, or to the Dnieper, or even to Poland. But, given today’s dynamics and problems, such a counteroffensive, to put it mildly, not very likely. The second option is that the Ukrainian army will launch a counteroffensive and somewhere will be able to break through the defenses.
In this case, in the army, which for years considered itself one of the best armies in the world, decadent moods may begin at first, and then the situation degrades, as it already happened after the defeatist wars of the early twentieth century – Finnish, Japanese – and the tragic events of 1917.
This can lead to global changes in Russian society. The people are already looking for someone to blame for the fact that we are not the strongest army in the world, and in this situation they will look for “traitors”. And these “traitors” will, of course, be representatives of the “deep state”. That is, those people who today, without putting any effort into a military operation, are as far away from the theater of operations as possible, trying not to lose their capital, to live a familiar life, and this is absolutely unacceptable for a people tired of the war and losing the taste of victory.
The patriots’ craving for justice can be a difficult situation for the deep state, which is mired in luxury and bureaucracy.
At the same time, nothing threatens the supreme power of Russia, since it is a symbol of national unity and resistance to the West, and this is the basis of today’s existence and the main explanation for any problems for patriotic forces inside Russia.
The Deep State will push the supreme power to make serious concessions. And, according to the existing tradition of the “deep state”, with any changes, try to improve their position by any means, including by betraying the interests of Russia. Their task is not a country or a people, their task is their own position in society, their own comfort and their own capital.
If you fall down, if the load of problems does not improve your situation, but pulls you to the bottom, then there is an expression: “Go to the bottom, then push off and rise up again.” This is what Americans are afraid of. They are afraid that excessive pressure on Russia and an increase in internal problems may pull her to the bottom. And if Russia reaches the bottom, pushes off from it, throwing off the burden of the “deep state”, then it will float up like a huge sea monster, demolishing everything in its path, including the plans of the United States.
And there are many examples of this in world history. China in the middle of the 20th century, being one of the poorest countries in the world, under partial occupation, Germany after the First World War, Japan after the Second World War, Turkey after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. They all surfaced, pushing off the bottom.
Radical national feelings will rise as after any military defeat, the Russian military industry will begin to work with a tenfold effort. Economic efficiency will crowd out sluggish, inefficient public capital. The state will get rid of bureaucracy, processes will become transparent, and Russia will step by step turn into a Bristling Military Monster, which the international community will have to reckon with, to bend over so that we see their parted buttocks.
And if we do not prove that we are strong militarily, no one will reckon with us and will turn us around as they please. For America, it is extremely unprofitable for Russia to reach the bottom and surface. They need a slow process where they negotiate with the elites, with the “deep state”, and then convince the country’s top political leadership to make new concessions step by step.
In the event that soft agreements take place, then, according to the American principle of gradual humiliation, the Fridmans and Chubais will first be returned to Russia, then the Khodorkovskys and Dvorkoviches. Then the liberalization of the elites will gradually take place, and the “deep state” will accept them out of a sense of self-preservation, transform and turn from black or red to blue or pink.
Of course, such a development of events is unfavorable for Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelensky, they need to resist and fight. But if these processes happen quickly enough, within a year or two, then the liberalized, Americanized, Western-facing “deep state” will force the Russian authorities to make concessions and, under various pretexts, return to Ukraine those territories that are now under our control, and which the West considers occupied.
These processes with the question “Why did we fight then?” will certainly launch the mechanism of centrifugal forces in the regions. And the Americans will get their way. In this situation, the main plan of the United States will be implemented with, at first glance, a beautiful looking, “soft, calm agreement.”
Russia cannot accept any agreement, only a fair fight. And if we come out of this battle battered, there is nothing to worry about. The fortified regions of Russia make it impossible to penetrate into its depths. And the Russian people have never broken down and will never break down. Therefore – Only A Fair Fight! And the sooner it starts, the better.
I summarize. The Ukrainians are ready to attack. We are ready to repel the blow. The best scenario for healing Russia so that it rallies together and becomes the Strongest State is the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in which no handouts and negotiations will be possible.
And either the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be defeated in a fair fight, or Russia will lick its wounds, build up muscles and tear its rivals again in a fair fight. Therefore, I believe that the option of agreements is impossible for the future of Russia.

But as it’s well established, I am a concern troll, so what do I know…

Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 19 2023 20:58 utc | 26

3 more HATO planes demilitarized. Excellent.
As HATO continues to empty out its warehouses for Ukraine, why not have another SMO perhaps to take advantage?
Hit the Germans and take out Sholtz, Baerbock and co.
Biden would literally shit his pants!

Posted by: Chris | Apr 19 2023 21:01 utc | 28

@shadowbanned | Apr 19 2023 19:23 utc | 12
Russia is being very disciplined in attempting to keep their lines straight. They will probably take to the river all along that line before crossing into Kupyansk. Notice that Russia didn’t build any enbattlements when they held Kharkiv Oblast. They took it to evacuate those who were willing to leave, then they pulled out. They will get back to it, but that isn’t a major priority yet.

Posted by: barstool | Apr 19 2023 21:13 utc | 30

Bakhmut is being reported as being 90% taken by the Russians. Each week for the last 3 weeks around 5% of Bakhmut is taken by the Russians. This week, the northern sector of Bakhmut is falling to the Russians.
If the current rate is maintained, Russia will take all of Bakhmut within the next couple of weeks.
It looks like Putin is planning to have Bakhmut in its hand by the end of the month.
Along other fronts it looks like Russia is changing tactics to cut the Ukrainian troop rotations.
Meanwhile, got a report from Hal Turner that the western major media outlets are cutting their coverage of the Ukrainian war. Maybe, this is because a lot of bad news for Ukraine and the West is about to pour in.
BEST GUESS of progression at this point is:
May 1, 2023: Bakhmut completely falls to the Russians.
June 1, 2023: Ukrainian offensive is neutralized.
July 1, 2023: All of Donbas falls to the Russians.
Early July, 2023: Russia finalizes plans for a nuclear launch against the USA
July 4-12, 2023: Russia launches against the USA

Posted by: young | Apr 19 2023 21:23 utc | 32

The Bilaya Tserka hit looks interesting. Some people claim it was another weapon depot (very large one). Perhaps it all blew up at the same time, creating the large fireball that rose and dissipated into smoke.
https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1648796573319458829

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 19 2023 21:27 utc | 34

A nation’s first priority is to protect it’s citizens
KievIndependent reports today that there are 10 kids in Bakmuth!!!
Are there not any limits to evil?
https://kyivindependent.com/official-approximately-10-children-still-remain-in-bakhmut/#:~:text=Official%3A%20Approximately%2010%20children%20still%20remain%20in%20Bakhmut,Vereshchuk%20reported%20on%20national%20television%20on%20March%2022.

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Apr 19 2023 21:43 utc | 36

Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 19 2023 20:58 utc | 27
thanks for the entertainment.
I think Russian leadership is enjoying the slow strangulation of the nasty West, while simultaneously deoxygenating Ukraine.
Don’t start a fight when your opponent is bigger and smarter than you, and you don’t have the reserves last the first 3 rounds.

Posted by: kupkee | Apr 19 2023 21:53 utc | 38

@Big Johnny Potatoes 32
I use the flippant analogy of a duck shoot but let’s not forget we’re talking about real HUMANS! Look at the Ukie ragbag. Old men, kids, probably even the odd Babushka! As if they even stand a chance.
Met a few of them here training on the tank ranges at Lulworth. They go down the beach at Swanage.
They’re bigging up the Chally 2. Game changer they say. Even though the Cobham has been striped and they will probably be using a Tom Tom from Argos for guidance lol!
Gotta feel for the guys. That’s Perfidious Albion for you.

Posted by: Big Johnny Potatoes | Apr 19 2023 21:54 utc | 40

Posted by: Outraged | Apr 19 2023 21:54 utc | 40
No evidence. It was just reported on TG according to what Ukraine’s administration had announced, namely 500k mobilization / 4 months. It’s hard to tell what’s going on, but kidnapping has been going on since late last Summer or so. It works by snatching people off the street and throwing them in the back of an unmarked van.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 19 2023 21:59 utc | 42

Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 19 2023 20:58 utc | 27
Perhaps because they might not have the same capabilities that many supporters ascribe to them. Namely, the ability to ignore basic military principles of war-fighting and still achieve victory. The Ukrainians are short of POL, capable units, ammunition for heavy weapons and mobile, integrated ADS, the Russians, on the other hand, have few if any, of these restrictions. Therefore, forcing the UA to constantly move, rotate and fight, all along the frontline, without a pause, exploits all of their previously mentioned weaknesses whilst reducing the risk of Russia’s shortfalls being exposed. Basic military 101.

Posted by: Milites | Apr 19 2023 22:06 utc | 44

Posted by: Outraged | Apr 19 2023 20:53 utc | 26
Thanks, one thing that especially stood out to me was the loss of Ukrainian manned aircraft. Of course it’s significant that Russia is adept enough to inflict such a steep price on Ukraine’s Air Force, but I’m really intrigued by what that level of deployment by Ukraine might imply.
Such aircraft, and pilots, are in extremely short supply, but someone high up deemed it worthwhile to risk them. Why? Was it part of their missions to gain intel on territory that they are about to move on, in force? I would say that’s farfetched, or even a silly idea, given the capabilities of American satellites, but maybe using jets as scouts reflects not a rational proposition, but the extreme nervousness of those who will blow the whistle for Ukraine to make a large scale attack.
How many military jets does Ukraine have left, and can expect to be delivered soon?

Posted by: Babel-17 | Apr 19 2023 23:00 utc | 46

@Down South | Apr 19 2023 18:08 utc | 2
I found media reports from 1. march …. about Kinzhal bunker attack near lviv….
hmm – hoax or an single Kinzhal made it end feb 23 – we cant know this maybe ever

Posted by: gpc | Apr 19 2023 23:08 utc | 48

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 19 2023 21:59 utc | 43
Keep us posted if you are able to confirm. I find it pretty hard to believe that Ukraine could have 500K troops, much less battle ready ones, on the basis of renditioning males off the streets or kidnapping them from their beds at night to throw them into the meat grinder. I don’t trust any of the numbers I hear from Western sources on Ukraine.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 19 2023 23:38 utc | 50

@ Babel-17 | Apr 19 2023 23:00 utc | 47
The latest tranche is ~13 formerly derelict Mig-29s from Slovakia(IIRC). However, the experienced, properly trained pilots are very long dead. They can be targeted & shot down from 400Km+(more realistically ~200Km+ re launch point) away beyond FEBA by either RF integrated/layered ADS, detected & guided to terminal phase engagement via high altitude RF AWACS/Surveillance AC, or same by on station Interceptor CAP inside RF borders firing R-37s, whether they fly a carefully planned & calculated NOE plot or not. The moment they pop-up, go Lo-Med/Hi they’re most certainly engaged & have only one option, attempted low fast evasive egress.
What can they accomplish at or beyond 400+/200+ kliks, or in the brief moments they exit NOE ? Not much. But they keep doing it. Mostly they appear to attempt brief/abortive close ground attacks on RF near FEBA, utilizing limited remnant AFU tactical ADS as partial protective cover & additional sensing(Which commonly gets targeted as a consequence of going active). Keep in mind all ‘lend-leased’ ex-soviet AC provided are 31+ years old re manufacture/sensors/radar/tech. Mostly salvaged unmaintained derelict/cannibalized, or previously decommissioned & mothballed. No spare parts. Time-warp museum pieces, especially re inadequate radar/sensors. 🙁
Highly probable recent very large singular event casualties, ie 100’s, is from the contribution of FAB-500’s/FAB-1500’s precision guided glide bombs stand-off launched (~40-80Kms) in ever increasing numbers daily (Min 20 sorties/day) against fortified positions but especially exposed concentrations of AFU in the open or en march, starting ~Mar8’23. Against which the AFU has no defense.

Posted by: Outraged | Apr 19 2023 23:55 utc | 52

@ LGB! | Apr 19 2023 18:52 utc | 10
I watched that Ukrainian footage and couldn’t see much more than a guy shooting and yelling to troops and claiming that orcs (Russians) have been killed. Someone else might be able to assess it better.

Posted by: Ново З | Apr 20 2023 0:09 utc | 54

PlatoIAmNot: The West doesn’t embrace western values; why should anyone else?

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 20 2023 0:24 utc | 56

Posted by: Outraged | Apr 19 2023 23:55 utc | 53
Thank you.
So it sounds to me now as more likely that sending out and losing those jets was more about the kind of thinking that Hitler had near the end, than Ukraine being a shrewd but desperate player, with no choice but to try to gain some benefit, any benefit, from its few remaining cards.
Though either way, like other “Signs and Portents”*, this kind of wasteful use of such a limited resource might be an indicator that at least one large attack is imminent.
*I can’t resist. As is often the case, Babylon 5 episodes resonate.
http://www.midwinter.com/lurk/guide/013.html
“A sharp increase in raider activity has the station on the defensive. Londo obtains a priceless Centauri artifact. A mysterious stranger visits the station’s alien ambassadors.”

Posted by: Babel-17 | Apr 20 2023 0:32 utc | 58

Ukie D-Day ain’t happening yet!
Amazing 1st person footage of Russians storming Uke trenches. Intense!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzL3rUfF_wY
Posted by: LGB! | Apr 19 2023 18:52 utc | 10
That’s the closest to the sharp end I’ve ever been. Very interesting.
These things interest me:
.At ‘the end’ they’re just about all in the bunker and the line is undefended
.They then are all busy reloading and it appears no machine for the job just cartridge by cartridge by hand and they’ve emptied just about ALL magazines. In a ten minute fire fight.
. The quit on ‘too much artillery’ after we see only two shells land and them at some distance. So far away I take it to be Kiev artillery so perhaps that was it? They leave the job to the artillery?
. They seem to take no incoming other than rifle fire. No mortar. No rpg. No MMG. No grenade. The enemy mounts ‘attacks’ like that?
. They refer them as ‘Orcs’. Is this a generic term for Kiev for the allied forces or does it mean specifically Russians? Or have Kiev forces anyway lumped all Donbas Ukrainians in as ‘Russian’ anyway and slated them for extermination?
. They seem to be without heavier weapons that rifles and grenades. No sign of LMG never mind MMG and HMG or mortar.
. Where were the radio messages coming from? On ground command post, other platoons, or drone operator?
. It seemed a heavy concentration of troops. A platoon at least I’d say – 10 men – and all concentrated around that bunker.
. Wouldn’t certain knowledge of the location of this platoon and bunker now be certain death to them in the next few minutes? Even poorly aimed artillery would surely wipe them out with a couple of barrages?
. And at the very least drones would be sent to that location?
. If not susceptible to such threats then what threat can get them there?
. Is this the norm?
. That tangled mess on the ground looks to me like almost impossible terrain to defence. A hundred men could crawl through that unseen.
Not stipulating anything there at all. Asking. Wondering.
Anyone know where I can view more revelatory stuff like that?

Posted by: abrogard | Apr 20 2023 1:19 utc | 60

Abrogard – I agree, pucker factor high in this one. From what I understand, they are near (defending?) the ‘Road of Death’ into Bakhmut. I will check to see if it has been geolocated yet.
You can actually see a drone in the sky (in the direction the Russians are coming from) on the longer 11 minute video, not sure if it’s in the 2 minute one. I assume the voices on the radio are from drone or some other observation post since they are relaying where the attackers are coming from.
The one Russian did chuck a grenade pretty early on and then there was the blast (grenade or mortar) right towards the start of the video near the entrance of the shelter.

Posted by: LGB! | Apr 20 2023 1:31 utc | 62

Interesting bull shit:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/pentagon-gives-statement-on-russian-t-90-tank-left-at-truck-stop
Why would the United States have inert replicas of Russian reactive armor?
I be that the machinegun on the turret roof was removed by the local criminals as well.

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Apr 20 2023 1:36 utc | 64

@ David Levin | Apr 20 2023 0:07 utc | 54
Comical Ali ? Bahgdad Bob ? A claimed ongoing ‘counter-offensive’ that doesn’t include … active Operational level actual offensive OPs ? Hm …
Sounds awfully like static purely localized tactical defensive OPs, ie merely desperately attempting to hold positions, survive whilst being ‘minced'(KIA’d) & sequentially rolled-up. Essentially in passive non-response to the enemies (RF) initiative & OP tempo, ’cause that ia all the AFU can barely manage ongoing since late Dec’22 ? Shades of Monty Python sketches …

Posted by: Outraged | Apr 20 2023 1:42 utc | 66

Ciaran @ 61
Very good article by Gaius Baltar. Ukrainians and Russians essentially think alike so it’s fascinating to see them trying to outthink each other. The Ukrainians big mistake is relying on NATO. They don’t seem to realize they are being used.

Posted by: dh | Apr 20 2023 2:21 utc | 68

William Schryver has a new post up on his substack based on a Twitter feed. Well worth a view.
https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/volodymyr-oleksandrovychs-last-dance?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Posted by: morongobill | Apr 20 2023 2:53 utc | 70

Mr. Simplicius The Thinker has posted yet another fine Sit-rep, “Dark Clouds Roll-in” that eventually cites a statement made by Russian Duma member and former General Andrei Gurulyov:

“We see how Orthodox priests are being bullied, hatred for Russia is being hammered into children’s heads, this is done by people who used to live in Russia – a country that was once called the Soviet Union. If they are going to drown the whole Crimea in blood, then we have only one way out – by force. No monetary hubs of Poland will help, or thoughts that there will be another Ukraine somewhere. She won’t. Basically, it won’t. This project will be closed one way or another, this is clear to all sane people. There are questions about the time it will take: a year, two, three, five. The deadline is 2027-2030.”

His statement along with Simplicius’s prompted me to write the following long comment about that issue–the End Game and its timing:
You raise some good, valid points, Russia’s demographic problem being the most important. But beyond the stated SMO goals and that of the December 2021 Security Proposals/Demands, what are the additional stated goals of Russia and China? Few seem to know that in his speech delivered on 21 September 2022 Putin made the following vow:

“It is in our historical tradition, in the fate of our people, to stop those who are striving for world domination, who threaten to dismember and enslave our Motherland, our Fatherland. We will do it now, and so it will be<.i>.” [My Emphasis]

My paraphrase: We will stop those striving for world domination because that’s what Russian’s do, and we will again do it now; and we won’t stop until we’re done.
That vow’s been reiterated on several occasions by Putin. A similar vow is also within China’s Global Security Initiative which states No Hegemony will be allowed. Something very similar to both was stated in the Russia/China 4 February 2022 Joint Declaration, was reiterated in the recent Declarations made after the Xi/Putin Summit and is also contained within Russia’s new Foreign Policy Concept that was published on 31 March 2023. If you’ve closely observed Russian FM Lavrov’s rhetoric since February 2022–and more so now that the new Concept is out–his assignment to show to those willing to listen–most of the world–that it’s the Outlaw US Empire and its gaggle of vassals who are the International law breakers, not Russia, and that Russia was completely within its rights to do what it did, is now doing, and will proceed to do. So, yes, the SMO within Ukraine will end with the extinguishing of the artificial entity that is Ukraine–whenever that occurs. And it ought to be very clear that whatever’s said by the Collective West no longer matters to Russia as it sees that entire entity as operating outside the norms of International Law as laid down in the UN Charter. Do read Lavrov’s remarks at the presser today in Caracas for a very good example.
No hegemony means no NATO and a defanged Outlaw US Empire. The latter has done Russia a great favor by attacking the EU, bombing the Nord Stream pipes, and applying all those illegal sanctions. Indeed, all its actions have weakened the entire Collective, which was already weak to begin with. NATO has a military force is a joke aside from its nukes that would be suicidal to use. The Collective was and remains geoeconomically dependent on Russia and also China. Neoliberal Parasitism has greatly weakened the Collective’s industrial power and thus its military power while also creating a financial house of cards that will soon collapse as it’s extremely unstable. Those currently holding power are incapable of diffusing the problems as their actions only serve to deepen them. So, time is very much on Russia’s and China’s side. At a presser earlier this month, Lavrov was asked about Russia being charged with interfering in any Western elections as has now been done; his reply was we don’t need to as they’re doing a very good job of it themselves, which is the truth.
An ancient maxim says not to interrupt your opponent when it’s making a mistake. In the RoW’s eyes, the Collective West continues to dig its hole ever deeper. Today’s Global Times editorial said to Blinken and crew–Don’t call us; we’ll call you–along with sterner rhetoric. South Korea’s playing a dangerous game of “loaning” its Master 155mm ammo and Paladin SPA systems that never transit the Pacific to the states but go to Ukraine, and its PM just lied about that arrangement which prompted Medvedev to say we’ll provide arms to the North. The latest Russian economic indicators are quite positive and will continue to improve. Although it’s not really spelled out anywhere, Putin has stated Russia’s operating under a new economic concept, which amounts to state support for Russian’s and their economy–a very different Third Way. The main inhibitor is the demographic problem–Russia needs more people, not for the military but to run its rapidly expanding economy. I expect at some point for legislation to subsidize the emigration of Russian’s living outside Russia, particularly from the Baltics, but that will not be enough. Millions of people from CSTO nations already work within Russia, and millions more would migrate if the incentives were better, particularly the issue of housing which is a National Priority. And do take note that the remedy must be long lasting–multigenerational. Thus, the demographic problem will force the Go Slow policy that however must compromise with the political imperative to drive Ukie artillery out-of-range of Russian settlements–new and old.
It’s that political imperative I see driving Russia’s next major military moves: Something swift that pushes far is what’s required, IMO. It makes sense for it to come from the North, but there must also be movement in the South. Yet, the other side of the coin regarding a conflict that lasts 5 more years must also be considered since Ukie manpower is already becoming more than limited along with its war material. It seems very likely that NATO will further step in by donning Ukie uniforms as it already has, which will create blowback in the nations they’re drawn from, unless they’re Polish/Baltic. Projected reports about the EU’s energy situation for the 2023 Winter are not optimistic with Germany shutting down its last NPPs and Russian supplies of NPP fuel facing curtailment with no foreseeable substitutions. All these own goals just make Russian’s smile. The other time consuming gamechanger is the new international financial system and its institutions that will bypass as many Outlaw US Empire choke points as possible. Imagine a vast apartment complex that’s the world’s nations which needs to be retrofitted with new plumbing and electrical systems and you can understand the complexity involved in that project. The current idea is to erect regional systems then tie them together as a whole, while not accommodating the Dollar/Euro Bloc until they cease being hegemonic.
So, there’s my outline of the Grand Design based on what’s already been declared and being constructed.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 20 2023 3:20 utc | 72

@10 – that was intense; also quite sad to see that after more than a century, trench warfare is still with us. Obviously the Ukrainian army is not out of ammo, at least in that small sample size.
Posted by: Chris | Apr 20 2023 2:39 utc | 71
yeah, but as someone noted above, it’s all small arms fire, and they even seemed to be skimping on that as we can see towards the end.
@Deplorable Commissar – I think there were some Russian mortars and other arty, and that is what probably eventually wiped that position out. You can see them trying to get down into their hole because of the artillery.

Posted by: LGB! | Apr 20 2023 3:38 utc | 74

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 19 2023 18:48 utc | 10
snopes
Stopped reading there.
Posted by: T | Apr 19 2023 19:25 utc
Same here, T.

Posted by: spudski | Apr 20 2023 3:42 utc | 76

It was a NASA satellite that fell in Kyiv. Coincidentally, at that moment there were kamikaze UAV flights and alarm in Kyiv.
Now it’s worth understanding whether the satellite fell by itself or … And what kind of satellite it was, what purpose.

https://t.me/legitimniy/15172
Same video on Twitter
https://twitter.com/runews/status/1648774137270218755

Posted by: Down South | Apr 20 2023 4:17 utc | 78

⚡️🇺🇳🇺🇦🌾 Again about the role of the UN and Ukraine in sabotaging the “grain deal”
Last week , we detailed how UN representatives are doing everything possible to prevent ships with Ukrainian grain from reaching developing countries. Colleagues then urged journalists to politely ask the organization to explain these actions.
Today, we have new details of the work of the UN and the Kiev authorities to sabotage the “grain deal” and fulfil its declared goals.
🔻 Ukraine and the UN block the exit of ships with grain
On the afternoon of April 17, EU Foreign Affairs President Josep Borrell said that Russia had allegedly blocked 50 ships for the “grain corridor”. But there is a nuance: there are actually 30 dry cargo ships, and they are idle solely because of the actions of the representatives of Ukraine and the UN in the Joint Coordination Center (JCC).
What is the reason for bulk carriers getting stuck in front of the Turkish straits? It is that the members of the Ukrainian delegation to the SKC are not interested in inspections of ships leaving the Black Sea. They are only concerned about incoming bulk carriers, for the arrival of each of which in the Odessa port, the Kiev authorities receive money. After payment, any interest in the further fate of bulk carriers from the Kiev authorities disappears.
Characteristically, the UN does not see anything wrong with such actions and does not require the Ukrainian side to increase the volume of inspections for the speedy passage of ships with grain to their destinations.
🔻 Because of the UN, ships with grain refuse to go to Africa
As we have already said, there are only four dry cargo ships in line now, chartered to deliver agricultural products to Africa. However, due to the long wait and registration denials, the owners of three of them were recently forced to change their destination from African to European ports.
In fact, even at the level of individual sea cargo carriers, an understanding has come that it is almost futile to export agricultural products to Africa along the “grain corridor”. And this is due to the principled position of the UN.
In the ports of the Odessa region, the situation is similar: at the moment, 38 ships are awaiting inspection there. Needless to say, almost all of them are sent to China, EU countries and Turkey, and not African states?
🔻What is the reason for the hype around the “grain deal”?
Looking at the current news about the cancellation of inspections, blocked courts and the statements of European politicians, the question may arise: why did the hype even arise now after a year of the “grain corridor” operation?
It’s all about changing the approach of the Russian side: from April 5, it began to register ships going to African countries first of all. This broke the corruption scheme, where only dry cargo ships, whose owners contributed the amount to the management of the ports of Odessa region, were admitted to the “grain deal” as a priority . It’s funny that even the Ukrainian media themselves wrote about this.
🔻And the problem for the Kiev authorities and their sponsors here is that Russia’s actions are absolutely legal and fully meet the goals of the grain initiative to save the world from hunger. Therefore, they resort to their favorite tactic – they accuse the Russian side of blocking ships with grain for developing countries, modestly silent that they do not go to Africa.
Well, in this case, the UN representatives only pander to Ukraine and turn the declared humanitarian mission into a commercial scheme. Personally and purposefully doing everything possible to prevent Ukrainian grain from getting into Africa.

https://t.me/sitreports/7423

Posted by: Down South | Apr 20 2023 4:22 utc | 80

spudski | Apr 20 2023 3:42 utc | 78
I posted a link to the actual article up thread. Cairns Australia dated the 1st. Easy enough to find using what PK quoted as search term.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 20 2023 4:54 utc | 82

An LGBT troll has hit the bar.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 20 2023 4:57 utc | 84

peter@AU1 @ 86
apparently premiers from oz are trekking to china…here in canada we’re still locked solid with empire. although i’ve been thinking…with france selling off some its $, macron having as pepe calls it a ‘road to damascus’ moment…that maybe city is about to throw america under the bus, along with ukraine.

Posted by: emersonreturn | Apr 20 2023 5:06 utc | 86

Petri Krohn #3 Uhuru – African People’s Socialist Party was raided in 2 cities last year. Dancing with Bears John Helmer (I believe) interviewed them after the raid. Early Jan they were stating they expected indictments. https://www.theburningspear.com/2023/01/FBI-ATTACK-UPDATE-indictments-of-Uhuru-Movement-members-expected-early-2023
They are very heavy into nutrition, pre-natal health, getting men out the the prison slave industry. Ellul supposedly came up with “think globally, act locally.” FBI coming down hard on them.
Further comments on them probably belong in the Open Thread.
Thanks for the head up.

Posted by: paxmark1 | Apr 20 2023 5:08 utc | 88

An LGBT troll has hit the bar.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 20 2023 4:57 utc | 86
After watching that Ukroid side footage, I suspected that.
Maybe my screen isn’t big enough, the resolution not clear enough and my eyes and brain not sharp enough – but I couldn’t see the orcs or faggots the Ukroid nco was screaming about. Peter, maybe you have a better eye for detecting the latter?!

Posted by: Ново З | Apr 20 2023 5:14 utc | 90

Ново З | Apr 20 2023 5:14 utc | 92
I had to sign in to see the video. Couldnt be bothered about that. LGBT was wanting everyone to see how the orcs in human waves were getting slaughtered. It comes through in the comments.
It is an exceptional lethal war. Both sides get ambushed at time. Neither side attacks in human waves, but the Ukraine side is often pushed to attack in suicide missions.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 20 2023 5:29 utc | 92

One cannot help but think, and this is out the box thinking, that following the Brexit event where the U.K. left the #EU and was being treated as a minor nation the British Empire manoeuvred the world into this war to destroy Germans (again), milk the American stupid morons for cash and equipment sucking them into a war (again) and ensure western oligarchy (of perverts) is maintained against Russian influence (again)…
Americans always forget who actually was in charge of the Dominion voting machines and who controls the media…
All of a sudden it is relevant adn a power broker (again) despite having no army, tanks or ammunition (again)
#EmpireStrikeBack
Plus $2.5Bn PER WEEK being given by the USA to a crooked thieving coke head with ‘stand for as long as it takes’ promises is milking at a level never seen before that even #molebutt claps like a hungry seal at on The media.

Posted by: Timboz | Apr 20 2023 5:49 utc | 94

@NJH | Apr 19 2023 18:02 utc | 1

Patriots now apparently confirmed delivered. Likely happened previously.

A Patriot act as good as any.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 20 2023 6:09 utc | 96

Interesting times.
The last country 404 conscripts are trapped in the high rise district of Artyomovsk. Thus, comes to an end the last road block between Kharkov and Kiev.
In other local country 404 news. Relic recovering thieving Smithsonian experts from the USSA have moved into the recently confiscated monastery of the caves. Only to find all the religious transportable gold and all valuable artifacts have literally been spirited away.

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Apr 20 2023 6:13 utc | 98

I don’t see it mentioned much, but it seems to me that in an existential war, Russia might not “win”, but they simply cannot “lose”. The reason is that massive pile of nukes. Same for China and USA. Maybe France, not sure.
If all else fails, they will unload the entire thing. Probably don’t even need to aim them. Could even drop them all in their own territory. As long as they explode, it’s very likely nuclear winter, worldwide mass starvation, and if the survivors are lucky, centuries trying to recreate the industrial revolution.
Is that wrong? I really wish the West would stop poking the bear.

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Apr 20 2023 6:26 utc | 100