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April 19, 2023

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-94

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b on April 19, 2023 at 17:57 UTC | Permalink

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Patriots now apparently confirmed delivered. Likely happened previously.

Posted by: NJH | Apr 19 2023 18:02 utc | 1

Colleagues, the fact that the General Staff and Western think tanks have already modeled the development of the situation in the upcoming counteroffensive (namely in the Azov direction) is beyond doubt, as well as the risks that may follow from a failure.

On April 4, we insided that Zaluzhny considers such an offensive to be "suicide."

But the West needs precisely the Azov offensive, which will cause the maximum image and moral damage to Russia.

Most likely, Zelensky will be forced to start it this year by playing Russian roulette. All our sources call the upcoming offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “Russian roulette”, since the result is difficult to predict.

Posted by: Down South | Apr 19 2023 18:08 utc | 2

Via Glenn Greenwald on Twitter:

U.S. Citizens and Russian Intelligence Officers Charged with Conspiring to Use U.S. Citizens as Illegal Agents of the Russian Government

Defendants Sought to Sow Discord, Spread Pro-Russia Propaganda and Interfere in Elections Within the United States

A federal grand jury in Tampa, Florida, returned a superseding indictment charging four U.S. citizens and three Russian nationals with working on behalf of the Russian government and in conjunction with the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) to conduct a multi-year foreign malign influence campaign in the United States. Among other conduct, the superseding indictment alleges that the Russian defendants recruited, funded and directed U.S. political groups to act as unregistered illegal agents of the Russian government and sow discord and spread pro-Russian propaganda; the indicted intelligence officers, in particular, participated in covertly funding and directing candidates for local office within the United States.

Additionally, in a separate case out of the District of Columbia, a criminal complaint was unsealed charging Russian national Natalia Burlinova with conspiring with an FSB officer to act as an illegal agent of Russia in the United States.

“Russia’s foreign intelligence service allegedly weaponized our First Amendment rights – freedoms Russia denies its own citizens – to divide Americans and interfere in elections in the United States,” said Assistant Attorney General Matthew G. Olsen of the Justice Department’s National Security Division. “The department will not hesitate to expose and prosecute those who sow discord and corrupt U.S. elections in service of hostile foreign interests, regardless of whether the culprits are U.S. citizens or foreign individuals abroad.”


Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 19 2023 18:29 utc | 3

"On April 4, we insisted that Zaluzhny considers such an offensive to be "suicide."
But the West needs precisely the Azov offensive, which will cause the maximum image and moral damage to Russia." Down South | Apr 19 2023 18:08 utc | 3

A preemptive strike by the Russians? And who is interested in the judgment of Russia's moral image by the brainwashed and subjugated ignoramuses of the collective west?
The Straussians (neo-talmudists) are evil without limits. Their ugly puppet Zelensky will send more Ukrainians to die. The Zio-Nazification of Ukraine is bearing its poisonous fruit.

Posted by: Cerena | Apr 19 2023 18:40 utc | 4

Patriots in probably means an offensive is soon. Ukraine has been told they have until the end of fighting season before they get pushed to make peace.

Eu is committed to funding the government for the whole year, no indication of such support after fighting, but I suppose they'll want to subsidize the rebuilding too for their corps.

The offensive looks like a push everywhere to concentrate russian forces and then break through anywhere to get a better bargaining position.

I wonder though if they have russian agreement for such an ending, that is with a defeat and harsh terms.

Till then, wait and see.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 19 2023 18:40 utc | 5

@ Down South | Apr 19 2023 18:08 utc | 3

d'accord mon ami, it is the only logical strategy for ukras.

may I add an amplification of this image- and moral damage to russia from afu with a big boom:
they like to destroy the bridges on the kerch street at the beginning immediately, if not before the offensive. it is possible and maybe it will be not entirely carried out by the afu/sbu alone.
just my three broken cents here, no source today.

Posted by: gpc | Apr 19 2023 18:41 utc | 6

If both sides decide to try to beat each other to the draw you will have a series of meeting engagements that favours the historical doctrine and force superiority (especially aviation and artillery) of the Russians. Their Cold-War doctrine, forged from WW2 experiences and likely force posture (aggressive mechanised advances) is absent in NATO doctrine, as a result of that organisations different experiential learning from the war, and likely role in any future one.

The big danger for the Ukrainians is that an offensive removes the fortifications and pre-prepared positions they have largely relied on to survive and thrusts them into tactical situations that are largely alien. Critical shortages of, or in some cases a complete absence of, platforms runs the risk of cruelly exposing these doctrinal and training shortfalls.

Posted by: Milites | Apr 19 2023 18:43 utc | 7

There is much talk about Ukraine‘s counteroffensive recently.
Foreign Policy writes about Ukraine‘s D-day. They even quote German Field Marshal Erwin Rommel: „The first 24 hours will be decisive. It will be the longest day for us and the Allies“
When they are evoking memories of D-day, it becomes obvious what‘s at stake.
For NATO it‘s all or nothing.

Posted by: Lesjeuxsontfaits | Apr 19 2023 18:47 utc | 8

Kinzhal strike on Lviv NATO bunker likely a hoax

Snopes has put effort into debunking the Kinzhal story. Interestingly, they have found what may be the original source for the claims.

Russian missile hits strategic 80-metre-deep NATO bunker

By Cossack Colonel YURI KOMINYENKO, March 1, 2023

IN western Ukraine a Russian Forces Kinzhal struck a bunker extending to 80 metres deep. The RF believes this bunker near Lvov was a NATO strategic command point used to control anti-aircraft systems. It’s still early days but the RF assumes there were up to 300 personnel in the bunker, 40 of which were high ranking foreign specialists, hence we can expect 40 body bags heading west in due course. Unconfirmed in the Nikolaevsk region the RF destroyed four senior militants, and a number of officers and planners.

The strike with six Kinzhal missiles happened on March 9, 2023. The above story was published more than a week earlier. The Source is CAIRNS NEWS, "North Queensland People Power News Service" in Australia. I am not sure if "Cossack Colonel Yuri Kominyenko" is a real person. Here is a photo of him, with the flag of the Sakhalin Oblast in the background.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 19 2023 18:48 utc | 9

Ukie D-Day ain't happening yet!

Amazing 1st person footage of Russians storming Uke trenches. Intense!

Posted by: LGB! | Apr 19 2023 18:52 utc | 10

Kyiv Independent speaks of 'complex operations' of the 'counteroffensive'now. Maybe in 4 areas. I think Ukraine would probe and see what happens and then declare the offensive on, if there is the least progress.

Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 19 2023 19:20 utc | 11

Total destruction here, and definitely it wasn't an empty field -- there are ruins, shells and burnt equipment all over the place:

The result of #Russian high-precision bomb FAB-500 on the ammunition depot of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine in #Kupyansk. You can see a lot of shells of caliber 152/155 mm strewn about.

The question is how is it possible that even after such devastation RU has only advanced by a couple miles in that direction since January....

Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 19 2023 19:23 utc | 12


which Rommel?

guderian understudy in June 1940,

assailant of Libya,

retreated from El Alamein,

outliner of kasserein, or

the builder of the Atlantic wall.


Posted by: paddy | Apr 19 2023 19:23 utc | 13

Ukrainian rhetoric increasingly hysterical and contradictory.

Redefine the counteroffensive downward. Resort to psychological coping victories instead of military ones.

I would make an analogy with two guys in a bar. Who do you want beside you in a fight? The loudmouth who brazenly tries to puff up his chest and take on the bouncer, or the quiet guy in the booth who keeps silent (but is actually an ex army ranger and martial arts practioner?)

Posted by: Chris | Apr 19 2023 19:29 utc | 14

@Petri Krohn | Apr 19 2023 18:48 utc | 10

and there is some support of your Kinzhal-hoax-claim:
the days before and after - there was no air alarm in lviv- as I know.
and for such important target, russkies would send two.

but, on the other hand - i am sure there wouldn't be any damage to the surface and the ukras would never confirm this by word or picture!

so - fog of war - thanks for sorting this out!

Posted by: gpc | Apr 19 2023 19:31 utc | 15

T | Apr 19 2023 19:25 utc | 15

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 19 2023 19:37 utc | 16

Posted by: Apollyon | Apr 19 2023 19:38 utc | 17

@LGB! | Apr 19 2023 18:52 utc | 11

Don't know if that footage is genuine or not. Ground is dry, the guys green tape is all clean and shiny, the explosions with shrapnel are most ineffective. Anyway, here's an example of the blast crater the fab's cause.

Posted by: gT | Apr 19 2023 19:59 utc | 18

gT - did you mean to reply to Shaddowbanned? My footage was of Russians storming the Ukies trenches. Pretty sure that is real. I think Shadowbanned's footage is of an earlier strike and not FAB.

Posted by: LGB! | Apr 19 2023 20:03 utc | 19

No one on this site or almost anywhere else has predicted the course of this war correctly. Only the Russian MOD knows what lies ahead. But it is clear that Ukraine will lose this war--but only if Russia prevents it from happening. The Ukrainians and NATO have gone all in just to keep the Russians contained in the Donbass. Whether there is a spring/summer offensive or not, Ukraine and NATO will seek to negotiate only after the next-to-last Ukrainian has died and Russia is free to break out clear to the Dnieper and beyond. Ukraine will then hope world pressure will force Russia into an agreement before the latter's original aims have been fulfilled--a complete demilitarization of Ukraine and elimination of all Azov fascist elements. If that occurs, Russia will have tragically snatched defeat from victory.

Posted by: FHTEX | Apr 19 2023 20:04 utc | 20

South Korea is being disingenuous about its involvement on the Ukie side of the conflict as it's been supplying 155mm ammo and is the manufacturer of Paladin SPA systems along with other military items. RT reports:

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol indicated a possible policy shift regarding the Ukraine conflict in an interview with Reuters on Wednesday, ahead of a state visit to the US next week.

“If there is a situation the international community cannot condone, such as any large-scale attack on civilians, massacre or serious violation of the laws of war, it might be difficult for us to insist only on humanitarian or financial support,” Yoon said.

“Considering our relationship with the parties engaged in the war and developments in the battlefield, we will take the most appropriate measures,” he added.

Those remarks prompted Dmitri Medvedev to say according to RT: "Moscow could offer advanced weapons to North Korea if South Korea begins to supply military aid to Ukraine."

As with its Master the Outlaw US Empire, South Korea tries to mask its involvement by "loaning" ammo and weapons to its Master which then sends them to Ukraine, although the ammo and weapons never touch the Empire's soil and get delivered directly to Ukraine. I researched South Korea's MIC and found it to be more formidable than its Master in artillery and ammo production, with the most modern version of the Paladin SPA being produced there along with some very potent kin.

Medvedev's thought, however, goes against Russian policy of seeking to defuse the military tensions on the Korean Peninsula. IMO, it's clear South Korea's being drawn into the Empire's side of its losing geopolitical struggle without considering the costs.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 19 2023 20:14 utc | 21

"The Ukrainian officers who are with their units in Bakhmut believe that this city should have been abandoned as soon as the "Wagner" units reached the key heights."

What is going on here? During this year there have been comments in UAF of Bakhmut that should have been abandoned basically back in early January.

Ukrainian leadership is drunk on their ability to draft basically unlimited number of troops, up to 4000 per day. This gives them a false sense of being invincible in the war, and being able to have unlimited amount of men to throw around, which lowers the tolerance for holding these kind of forward defense positions like Bakhmut.

The other bet this whole thing is based on is getting a lot of weapons from Nato. They sacrifice the other fronts to be able to stockpile for the offensive between Orekhov and Ugledar. Also, I'd say Nato is fighting with 80 % capacity in Ukraine, due to basically every surplus weapon and even stockpiled weapon sent there, and they have also sent special forces, and "advisors" to operate weapons. This war what you are seeing in Ukraine, is what Nato can output close to full potential.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 19 2023 20:17 utc | 22

Krohn @3, It is Ironic that we in the U.S. are arresting 'unregistered Russian Agents' and then pointing the finger at Russia for having 'Treason Laws'

Posted by: Christian Chuba | Apr 19 2023 20:48 utc | 23

The outbreak in Kyiv, preliminary, was the result of a NASA space satellite falling to Earth, the Kyiv city military administration said.

NASA satellite fell over Kiev? What are the chances of that happening?

Maybe it was a satellite, but far more likely it was a US spy satellite. It was only a matter of time when that starts happening.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 19 2023 20:49 utc | 24

Minimum, incomplete, low-ball KIA(only)(FEBA only) 725+ ... Translated:

Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation (19.04.2023)

◽️ In the Kupyansk direction, assault and army aviation strikes, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems of the Western Group of Forces hit enemy units in the areas of Novoselovskoye in the Luhansk People's Republic, Kotlyarovka, Zagoruykovka, Ivanovka and Pershotravneve in the Kharkiv Region. An ammunition depot of the 3rd Tank Brigade of the AFU was destroyed near Dvurechnaya settlement.

◽️ In addition, the actions of two Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were suppressed in the areas of Sinkovka and Orlyanske settlements of Kharkiv region.

💥 During the day more than 120 Ukrainian servicemen, one tank, two armored fighting vehicles, two vehicles, as well as a Grad MLRS vehicle were destroyed in this direction.

◽️ In the Krasno-Limanskoe direction, strikes by operational and tactical aviation and army aviation and artillery fire of the Center group of troops defeated Ukrainian armed forces units in the areas of Nevske, Chervona Dibrova of the Luhansk People's Republic and Hryhorivka of the Donetsk People's Republic. The losses of the enemy were up to 75 Ukrainian servicemen, as well as two armored fighting vehicles.

◽️ In the Donetsk direction, assault units liberated three quarters in the northwestern, central and southwestern parts of Artemivsk during the day. Units of airborne troops blockaded the city from the northern and southern outskirts.

💥 Operational-tactical and army aviation and artillery of the Southern Group of Forces supported the actions of the assault groups. Over the past 24 hours, aviation flew four sorties and the group's artillery carried out 67 firing missions.

◽️ In the areas of Stupochki and Krasnoe of the Donetsk People's Republic, as well as in the northwestern and central parts of Artemivsk, attempts by the Ukrainian armed forces to counterattack the assault groups were suppressed.

💥 An ammunition depot of the 68th AFU Mechanized Brigade was destroyed near Krasnogorovka in the Donetsk People's Republic.

💥 The enemy's losses during the day amounted to 380 Ukrainian servicemen, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, five armored fighting vehicles, eight vehicles, an Akatsiya self-propelled artillery unit, a D-20 howitzer, and a Grad MLRS combat vehicle.

◽️ In the South Donetsk and Zaporizhia directions, strikes by operational and tactical aircraft and army aviation and artillery fire of the Vostok Group of Forces hit enemy units in the areas of Ugledar, Pavlovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, Chervonoye, Malaya Tokmachka and Kamenskoye of the Zaporizhia region.

◽️ In addition, the actions of two Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were suppressed in the areas of Vladimirovka and Neskuchnoe settlements of the Donetsk People's Republic.

💥 In the past 24 hours the enemy losses in these directions were up to 120 Ukrainian soldiers, two armored combat vehicles, two vehicles, as well as the Msta-B howitzer.

◽️ In the Kherson direction, up to 30 Ukrainian servicemen, two vehicles, a Gvozdika self-propelled artillery unit and a D-30 howitzer were destroyed in the course of a day as a result of fire attacks.

💥 An ammunition depot of the 126th Territorial Defense Brigade was destroyed near the village of Zmievka, Kherson region.

💥 Operational and army aviation, missile troops and artillery of groups of troops (forces) of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit 98 AFU artillery units in firing positions, manpower and equipment in 133 areas during the day.

💥 A pontoon crossing over the Seversky Donets River was destroyed near Seversk Maly settlement of the Donetsk People's Republic. The command and observation post of a battalion of the 110th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian armed forces was hit near Avdeevka, Donetsk People's Republic. A fuel depot for military equipment of the 17th Tank Brigade of the AFU was destroyed near the Konstantinovka settlement of the Donetsk People's Republic.

✈️ Russian Air Force aircraft shot down three Ukrainian air force aircraft during the day, including:
▪️ two Ukrainian MiG-29 fighters were shot down in the areas of Novoukrainka and Sergeyevka settlements of the Donetsk People's Republic;
▪️ a Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft was shot down near Dolgenkoye settlement, Kharkiv region.

💥 An air defense aircraft near the settlement of Ugledar in the Donetsk People's Republic shot down an Su-25 aircraft of the air forces of Ukraine.

◽️ In addition, four HIMARS rockets were intercepted and six Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed in the areas of Podo-Kalinovka (Kherson region), Komsomolske (Donetsk region), Novogorovka, Ilyinka and Chervonopopovka (Luhansk region).

📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed (losses over previous 24hrs(+?)):
411(+4) aircraft, (Daily avg 1.0)
228 helicopters, (Daily avg 0.6)
3,776(+6) unmanned aerial vehicles, (Daily avg 9.1)
415 surface-to-air missile systems, (Daily avg 1.0)
8,732(+21) tanks and other armored combat vehicles, (Daily avg 21.1)
1,089(+2) multiple rocket launchers, (Daily avg 2.7)
4,619(+5) field artillery and mortars, (Daily avg 11.2) and
9,617(+35) special military vehicles. (Daily avg 23.1)

Posted by: Outraged | Apr 19 2023 20:53 utc | 25

No one on this site or almost anywhere else has predicted the course of this war correctly. Only the Russian MOD knows what lies ahead. But it is clear that Ukraine will lose this war--but only if Russia prevents it from happening. The Ukrainians and NATO have gone all in just to keep the Russians contained in the Donbass. Whether there is a spring/summer offensive or not, Ukraine and NATO will seek to negotiate only after the next-to-last Ukrainian has died and Russia is free to break out clear to the Dnieper and beyond. Ukraine will then hope world pressure will force Russia into an agreement before the latter's original aims have been fulfilled--a complete demilitarization of Ukraine and elimination of all Azov fascist elements. If that occurs, Russia will have tragically snatched defeat from victory.

Posted by: FHTEX | Apr 19 2023 20:04 utc | 21

Unfortunately, it is not clear that Russia will win the war. Russia will 100% win if it decides that it really wants to win. But that is where the big question mark lies.

Recall Prigozhin's recent statements:

There are a huge number of conspiracy theories about the events of the 90s, and then 2014 - the Maidan in Ukraine and the transfer of Crimea under the control of the Russian Federation. There are a huge number of different prophecies that tell about the meanings of these events. One thing is absolutely clear - the United States and the Anglo-Saxon group have been hatching a plan for the collapse of the USSR for a long time, as the main geopolitical competitor. In the late 80s and early 90s, they managed to overlay the ruling elite of the USSR with a huge number of agents of influence, give new meanings that changed the ideology of the existence of this ruling elite, put the population on a consumer needle and destroy the USSR. The collapse of the USSR was the most painful, the most difficult collapse of empires over the past hundreds of years, but did not lead to the complete destruction of Russia and its division into small principalities.

The fragmentation of African states, the collapse of the former Warsaw Pact countries. The smaller the country, the easier it is to manage, the more financially dependent it is, the more obedient it is.

The basis of modern US policy is financial neo-colonialism. This is when even the richest countries in mineral resources do not process the wealth of their mineral resources, but are fully integrated into the production and financial flows offered by "Western partners" - becoming American satellites, subcontractors and puppets. Therefore, the final task of the United States in the Ukrainian confrontation is to launch powerful centrifugal impulses in Russia, weaken the power and national identity in society and force it to turn towards the West, as it was in the early 1990s. At the same time, of course, in order to exercise control over the political situation in the country, it is first and foremost to gain control over financial instruments within the system, over production capacities and over subsoil.

Today, when the special operation began, and the Russian Federation was not able to achieve the results that society expected, the United States has the opportunity to return to its original plan. The original plan, I repeat once again, was as follows: to destroy the Soviet Union, and then walk along the perimeter of the country and turn its former allies away from Russia. For 30 years, with many former republics, this has almost been achieved. We lost first full control, and then good neighborly relations.

The collapse of Russia by military means cannot happen. Forests, swamps, vast territories, climatic specifics reliably protect the country's territory, making it a huge fortified area. Always in history, the enemy who reached Moscow, as a result shamefully fled, turning the "road of victory" into a "road of death" on the way back.

Why are the Anglo-Saxons holding Zelensky back, arranging internal conflicts and slowing down the offensive? Just in order to break the main jackpot - the collapse of Russia into many principalities. The US does not need a quick war. They need a war that will lead to the deep state's persuasion and victory.

The Russian Deep State is a community of near-state elites that operate independently of the political leadership of the state and have close ties and their own agenda. These elites work for different masters: some for the existing government, some for those who have been on the run for a long time, but, thanks to their connections, even after the flight of the elders, they remain in their places. A typical example of the "deep state" is the spitting of Khodorkovsky, Dvorkovich and so on. Dvorkovich, who fled abroad, whom I mentioned many times, left behind a whole tail of scum who were under him and above him, and who are elements of this "deep state". The Deep State leaks information endlessly and is ready to side with any ally or enemy for its own interests. The Deep State is easy to approach because it is a sponge within a country that is red on one side, black on the other, white on the third, and green on the fourth. And from each side, having a connection with a part of the "deep state", you can get into its center. The Russian deep state is currently in a serious crisis.

Many of those who supported the special operation yesterday are now in doubt, or categorically against what is happening. The representatives of the deep state want to urgently return to their normal lives, old habits and comfort. The "Deep State" is cunning and dodgy, the conversation of Joseph Prigogine is a vivid example of this. They are ready to mimic anyone. This is our inner, affectionate, cunning, bloodthirsty chameleon.

At meetings they are silent, express their doubts. And when making decisions on bureaucratic procedures, certain actions aimed at winning this war are hindered. Since the bureaucracy in Russia today is at a transcendent level, within the framework of the "legitimate bureaucracy" it is possible to destroy any decisions of the top leadership aimed at winning. These are internal enemies. In the theory of Alexander Dmitrievich Beglov, this is called a "bureaucratic sieve" - ​​a sieve that you can get into, but impossible to get out of.

For the authorities and for society as a whole, today it is necessary to put a fat period on the SMO. The ideal option is to announce the end of the SMO, to inform everyone that Russia has achieved the results that it planned, and in a sense we have actually achieved them. We have ground a huge number of fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and we can report to ourselves that the tasks of the SMO have been completed.

Theoretically, Russia has already received this fat point by destroying a large part of the active male population of Ukraine, by intimidating another part of it, which fled to Europe. Russia cut off the Sea of ​​Azov and a large piece of the Black Sea, seized a fat piece of Ukrainian territory and created a land corridor to the Crimea. Now there is only one thing left: to firmly gain a foothold, to claw in those territories that already exist. But there is a slyness - if earlier Ukraine was a part of the former Russia, now it is an absolutely national-oriented state.

If before February 24, 2022, the European Union was greedy to give Ukraine tens of millions of dollars, now tens of billions are being turned off for the war. Of course, some of these funds please the pockets of the ruling elite of Ukraine, which benefits from the conflict. Many of those who were forgotten yesterday have received a new chance for self-realization and enrichment today.

Although the Ukrainian leadership is getting rich, due to the large losses of population at the front and the general fatigue from the war, the political leadership needs a victory. For Russia, there is always the risk that after the start of the counteroffensive, the situation at the front may worsen. Preserving the existing borders on February 24, 2023 is an exchange that the United States can offer the Russian leadership today as a negotiating position. For this, a "dramatic pause" is needed. If the government refuses, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine will go on the offensive. In this situation, there may be various options for the development of events. One of them is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will run into the defense of the Russian Federation, suffer serious losses, after which a colossal counteroffensive of the Russian troops will begin to the borders of the DPR, or to the Dnieper, or even to Poland. But, given today's dynamics and problems, such a counteroffensive, to put it mildly, not very likely. The second option is that the Ukrainian army will launch a counteroffensive and somewhere will be able to break through the defenses.

In this case, in the army, which for years considered itself one of the best armies in the world, decadent moods may begin at first, and then the situation degrades, as it already happened after the defeatist wars of the early twentieth century - Finnish, Japanese - and the tragic events of 1917.

This can lead to global changes in Russian society. The people are already looking for someone to blame for the fact that we are not the strongest army in the world, and in this situation they will look for "traitors". And these "traitors" will, of course, be representatives of the "deep state". That is, those people who today, without putting any effort into a military operation, are as far away from the theater of operations as possible, trying not to lose their capital, to live a familiar life, and this is absolutely unacceptable for a people tired of the war and losing the taste of victory.

The patriots' craving for justice can be a difficult situation for the deep state, which is mired in luxury and bureaucracy.

At the same time, nothing threatens the supreme power of Russia, since it is a symbol of national unity and resistance to the West, and this is the basis of today's existence and the main explanation for any problems for patriotic forces inside Russia.

The Deep State will push the supreme power to make serious concessions. And, according to the existing tradition of the "deep state", with any changes, try to improve their position by any means, including by betraying the interests of Russia. Their task is not a country or a people, their task is their own position in society, their own comfort and their own capital.

If you fall down, if the load of problems does not improve your situation, but pulls you to the bottom, then there is an expression: "Go to the bottom, then push off and rise up again." This is what Americans are afraid of. They are afraid that excessive pressure on Russia and an increase in internal problems may pull her to the bottom. And if Russia reaches the bottom, pushes off from it, throwing off the burden of the "deep state", then it will float up like a huge sea monster, demolishing everything in its path, including the plans of the United States.

And there are many examples of this in world history. China in the middle of the 20th century, being one of the poorest countries in the world, under partial occupation, Germany after the First World War, Japan after the Second World War, Turkey after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. They all surfaced, pushing off the bottom.

Radical national feelings will rise as after any military defeat, the Russian military industry will begin to work with a tenfold effort. Economic efficiency will crowd out sluggish, inefficient public capital. The state will get rid of bureaucracy, processes will become transparent, and Russia will step by step turn into a Bristling Military Monster, which the international community will have to reckon with, to bend over so that we see their parted buttocks.

And if we do not prove that we are strong militarily, no one will reckon with us and will turn us around as they please. For America, it is extremely unprofitable for Russia to reach the bottom and surface. They need a slow process where they negotiate with the elites, with the "deep state", and then convince the country's top political leadership to make new concessions step by step.

In the event that soft agreements take place, then, according to the American principle of gradual humiliation, the Fridmans and Chubais will first be returned to Russia, then the Khodorkovskys and Dvorkoviches. Then the liberalization of the elites will gradually take place, and the “deep state” will accept them out of a sense of self-preservation, transform and turn from black or red to blue or pink.

Of course, such a development of events is unfavorable for Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelensky, they need to resist and fight. But if these processes happen quickly enough, within a year or two, then the liberalized, Americanized, Western-facing "deep state" will force the Russian authorities to make concessions and, under various pretexts, return to Ukraine those territories that are now under our control, and which the West considers occupied.

These processes with the question “Why did we fight then?” will certainly launch the mechanism of centrifugal forces in the regions. And the Americans will get their way. In this situation, the main plan of the United States will be implemented with, at first glance, a beautiful looking, "soft, calm agreement."

Russia cannot accept any agreement, only a fair fight. And if we come out of this battle battered, there is nothing to worry about. The fortified regions of Russia make it impossible to penetrate into its depths. And the Russian people have never broken down and will never break down. Therefore - Only A Fair Fight! And the sooner it starts, the better.

I summarize. The Ukrainians are ready to attack. We are ready to repel the blow. The best scenario for healing Russia so that it rallies together and becomes the Strongest State is the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in which no handouts and negotiations will be possible.

And either the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be defeated in a fair fight, or Russia will lick its wounds, build up muscles and tear its rivals again in a fair fight. Therefore, I believe that the option of agreements is impossible for the future of Russia.

But as it's well established, I am a concern troll, so what do I know...

Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 19 2023 20:58 utc | 26

NASA satellite fell over Kiev? What are the chances of that happening?

Maybe it was a satellite, but far more likely it was a US spy satellite. It was only a matter of time when that starts happening.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 19 2023 20:49 utc | 25

There were also two very big mushroom clouds reported in Bela Tserkva south of Kiev.

Not clear if there is any connection, but there might be, and in that case maybe it wasn't a satellite at all.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 19 2023 21:01 utc | 27

3 more HATO planes demilitarized. Excellent.

As HATO continues to empty out its warehouses for Ukraine, why not have another SMO perhaps to take advantage?

Hit the Germans and take out Sholtz, Baerbock and co.

Biden would literally shit his pants!

Posted by: Chris | Apr 19 2023 21:01 utc | 28

@ shadowbanned | Apr 19 2023 19:23 utc | 12

Dear Pol Pot wannabe:

Why do you assume that territorial gain is the immediate objective?

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 19 2023 21:05 utc | 29

@shadowbanned | Apr 19 2023 19:23 utc | 12
Russia is being very disciplined in attempting to keep their lines straight. They will probably take to the river all along that line before crossing into Kupyansk. Notice that Russia didn't build any enbattlements when they held Kharkiv Oblast. They took it to evacuate those who were willing to leave, then they pulled out. They will get back to it, but that isn't a major priority yet.

Posted by: barstool | Apr 19 2023 21:13 utc | 30

If one has the advantage of being presented with the opportunity of a duck shoot in one's back yard, why go beyond the yard searching for 🦆?

Posted by: Big Johnny Potatoes | Apr 19 2023 21:22 utc | 31

Bakhmut is being reported as being 90% taken by the Russians. Each week for the last 3 weeks around 5% of Bakhmut is taken by the Russians. This week, the northern sector of Bakhmut is falling to the Russians.

If the current rate is maintained, Russia will take all of Bakhmut within the next couple of weeks.

It looks like Putin is planning to have Bakhmut in its hand by the end of the month.

Along other fronts it looks like Russia is changing tactics to cut the Ukrainian troop rotations.

Meanwhile, got a report from Hal Turner that the western major media outlets are cutting their coverage of the Ukrainian war. Maybe, this is because a lot of bad news for Ukraine and the West is about to pour in.

BEST GUESS of progression at this point is:

May 1, 2023: Bakhmut completely falls to the Russians.
June 1, 2023: Ukrainian offensive is neutralized.
July 1, 2023: All of Donbas falls to the Russians.
Early July, 2023: Russia finalizes plans for a nuclear launch against the USA
July 4-12, 2023: Russia launches against the USA

Posted by: young | Apr 19 2023 21:23 utc | 32

young: Russia has no desire to launch a capricioys and unprovoked nuclear strike.

Or is that in the Book of Daniel?

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 19 2023 21:26 utc | 33

The Bilaya Tserka hit looks interesting. Some people claim it was another weapon depot (very large one). Perhaps it all blew up at the same time, creating the large fireball that rose and dissipated into smoke.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 19 2023 21:27 utc | 34

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 19 2023 21:27 utc | 35

Wow that looks like a big blast!

Imagine if a few NATO advisers were inside the blast radius. The goodness of mankind just went up a few notches.

Posted by: Chris | Apr 19 2023 21:39 utc | 35

A nation's first priority is to protect it's citizens

KievIndependent reports today that there are 10 kids in Bakmuth!!!

Are there not any limits to evil?,Vereshchuk%20reported%20on%20national%20television%20on%20March%2022.

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Apr 19 2023 21:43 utc | 36

Down South | Apr 19 2023 18:08 utc | 2 "...Zelensky...forced...[to play] Russian roulette..."

Zelensky's Western controllers / enablers are criminals. My actual German government expressly included. Nothing is done to avoid the tragedy. The situation compares to Stalingrad, when Hitler was confident that he could break the Red Army despite of the bloody nose the Wehrmacht had already received in the Moscow direction. I really wonder who, with a sane mind, in the "General Staff and Western think tanks" is confident that they can defeat Russia in an offensive, while IRL their active assets, mainly sitting in heavily fortified defenses, get continuously diminished.
Not only they "have already modeled the development", Russia for sure prepares as well. Read:
Russia Arming to Slaughter a Million Mindless Ukrainian Conscripts Marching toward Sevastapol.
The blood bath among the Ukrainians is predictable.

Posted by: OttoE | Apr 19 2023 21:48 utc | 37

Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 19 2023 20:58 utc | 27

thanks for the entertainment.
I think Russian leadership is enjoying the slow strangulation of the nasty West, while simultaneously deoxygenating Ukraine.
Don't start a fight when your opponent is bigger and smarter than you, and you don't have the reserves last the first 3 rounds.

Posted by: kupkee | Apr 19 2023 21:53 utc | 38

@ NJH | Apr 19 2023 18:02 utc | 1
Matters not. Inconsequential, 'cause utterly combat ineffective & essentially inadequate reloads (Expensive!!!), due global critical shortage. Only value ? Flawed PR & MIC profit. Junk.

@ Milites | Apr 19 2023 18:43 utc | 7

No Meeting engagements. The only valid parallel is the Charge of the light Brigade, only the Russkies are armed with 21st century armaments & Air power, in greater depth & massive numbers. AFU simply ascend to Valhalla whenever they exit their entrenchments or form-up. AFU necessarily massed formations, in the assault, against RF prepared defensive positions in depth, with AFU inferior incohesive manpower, inadequate arms & therefore combat power, at disadvantageous force ratios, simply means they will die/be destroyed in higher numbers, more quickly. Dead men walking. Only accelerates, brings forward, the inevitable outcome.

@ Eighthman | Apr 19 2023 19:20 utc | 11

If AFU dilutes/fails to concentrate it's insufficient & inadequate cobbled together reserve forces they will simply die, with nil effect, not even transient faux PR. With only ~9 weak Frankenstein under-trained BDEs comprising ~27,000-45,000 they either attempt a decisive penetration in a singular concentrated schwerpunkt to have even a marginal temporary effect, which cannot be followed through re subsequent reserve echelons nor exploited due insufficient everything(Logistics/materiel/munitions), before being 'reduced', or they die all along the line, for zero result, in a last gasp hurrah!

@ T | Apr 19 2023 19:25 utc | 14

@ Chris | Apr 19 2023 19:29 utc | 15
Quite so. Always pay careful attention to the impassive quiet one.

@ gT | Apr 19 2023 19:59 utc | 19

Unsurprising. What Shadowbanned linked to was NOT the result of a FAB strike, but did dump a deceptive false quote, along with, as always, such ... concern ...

Yours, yes. That is what a FAB does, note the destruction beyond the edge of blast crater, most obviously destroyed vehs & AFVs. This is likely the result of a precision strike on a dispersed Coy(+) formation re-assembling. IF the AFU goes through with their suicidal 'Counter-offensive', expect to see much more of this.

@ unimperator | Apr 19 2023 20:17 utc | 23

Ukrainian leadership is drunk on their ability to draft basically unlimited number of troops, up to 4000 per day.

An ~BDE a day, supplied & equipped ? A Corps(-), 28,000/week ? An Army, 112,000/month ?! Curious. Evidence to support this claim ?

@ shadowbanned | Apr 19 2023 20:58 utc | 27

FTHEX post was low grade. Yet, again unsurprising you select it and then follow-up with thread spam posts. And yes, you are a Psyops concern troll, full of it, beyond doubt. Would you like Freedumb Fries with that, troll ?

Posted by: Outraged | Apr 19 2023 21:54 utc | 39

@Big Johnny Potatoes 32

I use the flippant analogy of a duck shoot but let's not forget we're talking about real HUMANS! Look at the Ukie ragbag. Old men, kids, probably even the odd Babushka! As if they even stand a chance.

Met a few of them here training on the tank ranges at Lulworth. They go down the beach at Swanage.

They're bigging up the Chally 2. Game changer they say. Even though the Cobham has been striped and they will probably be using a Tom Tom from Argos for guidance lol!

Gotta feel for the guys. That's Perfidious Albion for you.

Posted by: Big Johnny Potatoes | Apr 19 2023 21:54 utc | 40

Petri Krohn @ #3:

Of a piece with the Russian influence indictments:

We've reached full Goebbels/1984:

President Lula da Silva of Brazil recently visited China’s President Xi Jinping. French President Emmanuel Macron, Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi and Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sanchez have all made the journey in recent months. Even Germany’s amateurish Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock went, but her goal was to make sure that double talking Macron didn’t stray far from the EU’s pro-U.S. orthodoxy.

The frequency of high level meetings is interesting when one considers Joe Biden's bizarre rant in his State of the Union Speech. He blurted out, “Name me a world leader who would trade places with Xi Jinping! Name me one!” Apparently the answer is all of them because they are making a collective beeline to Beijing. Because of his odd screed and shooting down a weather balloon, Biden can’t get Xi to take his phone call. Nor can Secretary of State Blinken schedule a meeting with his Chinese counterparts that was planned before the balloon fiasco. China is “ghosting” the U.S., which responds in typical fashion.

Like every small child does when frustrated about not getting their way, the U.S. ups the ante with a brand new tantrum. Balloons are so two months ago, as are demented questions about Tik Tok. Now the courts are tools of the futile effort to subjugate China. In New York City prosecutors charged two Chinese-Americans with failing to register as agents of a foreign government by setting up a “police station” under the control of China’s government.

The trope of the Chinese police station has gone from a laughable war propaganda theory to war by other means. Federal prosecutors are charging the two men with obstruction, not espionage, and it appears they may not have been charged at all had they exercised their right not to talk to the FBI.

The charges are a prosecutor’s dream complete with press conferences where they can make outrageous claims against defendants. U.S. Attorney Breon Peace waxed particularly eloquently, “Today’s charges are a crystal clear response to the P.R.C. that we are onto you, we know what you’re doing and we will stop it from happening in the United States of America. We don’t need or want a secret police station in our great city.”

Of course the office was not a secret as it had been opened publicly. Nor is it anything resembling a police station. The term is a fiction, a creation of the state and their friends in the media meant to incite fear and hatred of China and to normalize the idea of armed conflict. These offices where Chinese citizens can get licenses renewed don’t have lock-ups or armed officers and are definitely not police stations.

The charges filed against the two men are purely political and will not lead to any advantage for the United States. While camera-loving prosecutors make nonsensical statements, China’s Defense Minister was in Moscow meeting with Vladimir Putin. China and Russia are now inextricably linked and are preparing to face the U.S. in whatever way it may choose to confront them.

In addition to the two New York men, the Justice Department indicted 34 people in China and charged them with conspiracy to transmit foreign threats but the complaint is a rehash of the old Russian troll farm stories. What was their crime? Among other things, “ account controlled by the Group made numerous posts about George Floyd’s death and accusing U.S. law enforcement institutions of racism.” Any accusation of racism in law enforcement is a fact and not a reason for an indictment of any kind, but facts are never the issue when the U.S. declares another nation an enemy.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 19 2023 21:58 utc | 41

Posted by: Outraged | Apr 19 2023 21:54 utc | 40

No evidence. It was just reported on TG according to what Ukraine's administration had announced, namely 500k mobilization / 4 months. It's hard to tell what's going on, but kidnapping has been going on since late last Summer or so. It works by snatching people off the street and throwing them in the back of an unmarked van.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 19 2023 21:59 utc | 42

I would recommand reading this 2019 article by

and see the 2023 video

They dont see how their own action contribute to the outcome they least desire

Nicolai Petro:
Silvia-Chandley Professor of Peace Studies and Nonviolence and Professor of Political Science, University of Rhode Island (USA).

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Apr 19 2023 21:59 utc | 43

Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 19 2023 20:58 utc | 27

Perhaps because they might not have the same capabilities that many supporters ascribe to them. Namely, the ability to ignore basic military principles of war-fighting and still achieve victory. The Ukrainians are short of POL, capable units, ammunition for heavy weapons and mobile, integrated ADS, the Russians, on the other hand, have few if any, of these restrictions. Therefore, forcing the UA to constantly move, rotate and fight, all along the frontline, without a pause, exploits all of their previously mentioned weaknesses whilst reducing the risk of Russia’s shortfalls being exposed. Basic military 101.

Posted by: Milites | Apr 19 2023 22:06 utc | 44

@ unimperator | Apr 19 2023 21:59 utc | 43

The problem is literally anything Ukraine's administration reports/announces has been consistently proven over ~14 months now, is BS. A rational objective analysis of the events on the ground renders such claims highly improbable, to say the least. For example, proven it was to take 4 months to 'attempt' to raise the BDEs for it's 'Reserve', whilst refilling the trench lines with sufficient untrained/ill-equipped human sandbags.

Yep, the press-ganging is amoral & obscene & long ongoing. What is worse is broken survivors(Guilt) &/or with PTS(D) & only partially medically recovered WIA, even maimed with one or more new limb prostheses, are falsely declared fit for service & forcibly thrown back in the line. Fully expect the majority of such cohorts, given their expectation of chances of survival/coping a second time around are nil, likely promptly commit suicide, directly or indirectly. :(

@ Milites | Apr 19 2023 22:06 utc | 45
Indeed, every time the AFU attempts to deploy, redeploy or re-locate a formation, ie breaks cover/concealment, exit hides or entrenchments, enters Line of March, they risk mass casualties/annihilation. IE numerous attempts at forward deployment, reinforcement, forwarding replacements or unit rotations/withdrawals, result in further mass casualties, all along FEBA. Long unsustainable.

Posted by: Outraged | Apr 19 2023 22:30 utc | 45

Posted by: Outraged | Apr 19 2023 20:53 utc | 26

Thanks, one thing that especially stood out to me was the loss of Ukrainian manned aircraft. Of course it's significant that Russia is adept enough to inflict such a steep price on Ukraine's Air Force, but I'm really intrigued by what that level of deployment by Ukraine might imply.

Such aircraft, and pilots, are in extremely short supply, but someone high up deemed it worthwhile to risk them. Why? Was it part of their missions to gain intel on territory that they are about to move on, in force? I would say that's farfetched, or even a silly idea, given the capabilities of American satellites, but maybe using jets as scouts reflects not a rational proposition, but the extreme nervousness of those who will blow the whistle for Ukraine to make a large scale attack.

How many military jets does Ukraine have left, and can expect to be delivered soon?

Posted by: Babel-17 | Apr 19 2023 23:00 utc | 46

@T | Apr 19 2023 19:25 utc | 14

What do you have against a man and his cat?

Posted by: Hermit | Apr 19 2023 23:01 utc | 47

@Down South | Apr 19 2023 18:08 utc | 2
I found media reports from 1. march .... about Kinzhal bunker attack near lviv....

hmm - hoax or an single Kinzhal made it end feb 23 - we cant know this maybe ever

Posted by: gpc | Apr 19 2023 23:08 utc | 48

@ Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 19 2023 20:58 utc | 27

Thanks shadowbanned. I now understand Prigozhin's argument from the full text. The extract I had seen earlier was not clear to me. I agree that the US is in Ukraine just to put pressure on Russia and the US does not need a final offensive from Ukraine right now.

Anyway, successful offensive or not Russia and China are learning and getting badly needed training. As usual no battle is won until it is won.

Posted by: Richard L | Apr 19 2023 23:13 utc | 49

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 19 2023 21:59 utc | 43

Keep us posted if you are able to confirm. I find it pretty hard to believe that Ukraine could have 500K troops, much less battle ready ones, on the basis of renditioning males off the streets or kidnapping them from their beds at night to throw them into the meat grinder. I don't trust any of the numbers I hear from Western sources on Ukraine.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 19 2023 23:38 utc | 50

given its significance i am posting on the possible hoax re kinzal.

first the actual website may have been adjusted recently. quite possible given its tny ownership and oddiy. leave that to tech sleuths. in other words the first strike may never have happened

second if we assume it did happen then why the silence and who leaked it. perhaps there is some ham radio type in the region with a access to Ukrainian info from other hams .

more likely it was a deliberate info leak from either Russian or us sources. but why. the news journal is an qanon or similar site but it will have links to intelligence. it is 100 percent to have infiltration from asio and given its readership there will be quite a few trump types possibly with Russian links.

now i can't see any reason for a us leak so it is more likely to be russian. but why again. if we assume there was such a blast then my guess is it was a warning. a small nato base was hit as a warning of a bigger blast. or it did not happen but Russia was signaling its intention.

but why on earth in such an obscure journal. well given the location i think we can assume that far north queensland will have many many spooks seeking miltary intelligence from all countries. i can think of at least 10 which would certainly have military spies in the area

so using a two bit rag as a communication channel makes sense becsuse 50 percent of its readers will be spies and the remainder definitely fringe types.

it would seem that nato ihnlted the warning and 6 kinzals followed.

Posted by: watcher | Apr 19 2023 23:48 utc | 51

@ Babel-17 | Apr 19 2023 23:00 utc | 47
The latest tranche is ~13 formerly derelict Mig-29s from Slovakia(IIRC). However, the experienced, properly trained pilots are very long dead. They can be targeted & shot down from 400Km+(more realistically ~200Km+ re launch point) away beyond FEBA by either RF integrated/layered ADS, detected & guided to terminal phase engagement via high altitude RF AWACS/Surveillance AC, or same by on station Interceptor CAP inside RF borders firing R-37s, whether they fly a carefully planned & calculated NOE plot or not. The moment they pop-up, go Lo-Med/Hi they're most certainly engaged & have only one option, attempted low fast evasive egress.

What can they accomplish at or beyond 400+/200+ kliks, or in the brief moments they exit NOE ? Not much. But they keep doing it. Mostly they appear to attempt brief/abortive close ground attacks on RF near FEBA, utilizing limited remnant AFU tactical ADS as partial protective cover & additional sensing(Which commonly gets targeted as a consequence of going active). Keep in mind all 'lend-leased' ex-soviet AC provided are 31+ years old re manufacture/sensors/radar/tech. Mostly salvaged unmaintained derelict/cannibalized, or previously decommissioned & mothballed. No spare parts. Time-warp museum pieces, especially re inadequate radar/sensors. :(

Highly probable recent very large singular event casualties, ie 100's, is from the contribution of FAB-500's/FAB-1500's precision guided glide bombs stand-off launched (~40-80Kms) in ever increasing numbers daily (Min 20 sorties/day) against fortified positions but especially exposed concentrations of AFU in the open or en march, starting ~Mar8'23. Against which the AFU has no defense.

Posted by: Outraged | Apr 19 2023 23:55 utc | 52

From TASS, Kiev dubs Ukrainian army’s actions in Avdeyevka, Artyomovsk as 'part of counteroffensive'

MOSCOW, April 19. /TASS/. Ukraine’s military is conducting an active offensive operation in Avdeyevka
and Artyomovsk (known as Bakhmut in Ukraine) as well as in the Maryinka and Liman areas, and all this together
can be considered "part of the counteroffensive," Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar said on Wednesday.

"The counteroffensive should not be reduced to some active offensive actions. But taken together, if we talk
about our strategic goal, they can be described as counteroffensive measures," she said.

Let's hope this doesn't herald a discussion about what the definition of "is" is.

Posted by: David Levin | Apr 20 2023 0:07 utc | 53

@ LGB! | Apr 19 2023 18:52 utc | 10

I watched that Ukrainian footage and couldn't see much more than a guy shooting and yelling to troops and claiming that orcs (Russians) have been killed. Someone else might be able to assess it better.

Posted by: Ново З | Apr 20 2023 0:09 utc | 54

Novo - here is the abbreviated version - main shootings happen from about 1 minute in:

Posted by: LGB! | Apr 20 2023 0:20 utc | 55

PlatoIAmNot: The West doesn’t embrace western values; why should anyone else?

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 20 2023 0:24 utc | 56

At around 1:50 on this video, the Uke are shooting at a few Russians from the meat wave who are already down. Is this a war crime?

Posted by: LGB! | Apr 20 2023 0:25 utc | 57

Posted by: Outraged | Apr 19 2023 23:55 utc | 53

Thank you.

So it sounds to me now as more likely that sending out and losing those jets was more about the kind of thinking that Hitler had near the end, than Ukraine being a shrewd but desperate player, with no choice but to try to gain some benefit, any benefit, from its few remaining cards.

Though either way, like other "Signs and Portents"*, this kind of wasteful use of such a limited resource might be an indicator that at least one large attack is imminent.

*I can't resist. As is often the case, Babylon 5 episodes resonate.

"A sharp increase in raider activity has the station on the defensive. Londo obtains a priceless Centauri artifact. A mysterious stranger visits the station's alien ambassadors."

Posted by: Babel-17 | Apr 20 2023 0:32 utc | 58

Reasonable speculation by Gaius Baltar posted today on Larry Johnson’s blog regarding RF’s actions at the beginning of the SMO. Worth reading.
If correct, theory helps to explain subsequent actions.

Posted by: Ciaran | Apr 20 2023 0:35 utc | 59

Ukie D-Day ain't happening yet!
Amazing 1st person footage of Russians storming Uke trenches. Intense!
Posted by: LGB! | Apr 19 2023 18:52 utc | 10

That's the closest to the sharp end I've ever been. Very interesting.
These things interest me:
.At 'the end' they're just about all in the bunker and the line is undefended
.They then are all busy reloading and it appears no machine for the job just cartridge by cartridge by hand and they've emptied just about ALL magazines. In a ten minute fire fight.
. The quit on 'too much artillery' after we see only two shells land and them at some distance. So far away I take it to be Kiev artillery so perhaps that was it? They leave the job to the artillery?
. They seem to take no incoming other than rifle fire. No mortar. No rpg. No MMG. No grenade. The enemy mounts 'attacks' like that?
. They refer them as 'Orcs'. Is this a generic term for Kiev for the allied forces or does it mean specifically Russians? Or have Kiev forces anyway lumped all Donbas Ukrainians in as 'Russian' anyway and slated them for extermination?
. They seem to be without heavier weapons that rifles and grenades. No sign of LMG never mind MMG and HMG or mortar.
. Where were the radio messages coming from? On ground command post, other platoons, or drone operator?
. It seemed a heavy concentration of troops. A platoon at least I'd say - 10 men - and all concentrated around that bunker.
. Wouldn't certain knowledge of the location of this platoon and bunker now be certain death to them in the next few minutes? Even poorly aimed artillery would surely wipe them out with a couple of barrages?
. And at the very least drones would be sent to that location?
. If not susceptible to such threats then what threat can get them there?
. Is this the norm?
. That tangled mess on the ground looks to me like almost impossible terrain to defence. A hundred men could crawl through that unseen.
Not stipulating anything there at all. Asking. Wondering.
Anyone know where I can view more revelatory stuff like that?

Posted by: abrogard | Apr 20 2023 1:19 utc | 60

LoL its hilarious that they have to announce and clarify that this IS THEIR COUNTEROFFENSIVE.

kinda like punching their time cards. Good strategy tbh. They can tell the West they did their bidding and expect their payment.

The West is who ends up focked LoL

Posted by: Comandante | Apr 20 2023 1:31 utc | 61

Abrogard - I agree, pucker factor high in this one. From what I understand, they are near (defending?) the 'Road of Death' into Bakhmut. I will check to see if it has been geolocated yet.

You can actually see a drone in the sky (in the direction the Russians are coming from) on the longer 11 minute video, not sure if it's in the 2 minute one. I assume the voices on the radio are from drone or some other observation post since they are relaying where the attackers are coming from.

The one Russian did chuck a grenade pretty early on and then there was the blast (grenade or mortar) right towards the start of the video near the entrance of the shelter.

Posted by: LGB! | Apr 20 2023 1:31 utc | 62

young | Apr 19 2023 21:23 utc | 33 "It looks like Putin is planning to have Bakhmut in its hand by the end of the month."

Right back at the start, Putin said "I don't know how long this will take. Lavrov said "I don't know how long this will take.

The Russians are not working to a calendar or deadline. I suspect Putin's only concern is that Russian casualties are minimized and Nato casualties are maximized. The rest is up to the military commanders. For the Russians there in no hurry to take territory as Nato has to be defeated before the stated goals of the military operation in Ukraine can be completed.

From what I can see this static frontline is about minimizing casualties and keeping the zone of destruction to a single strip. Why waste lives trying to push forward to a deadline when Nato and its proxies will come to them.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 20 2023 1:33 utc | 63

Interesting bull shit:

Why would the United States have inert replicas of Russian reactive armor?

I be that the machinegun on the turret roof was removed by the local criminals as well.

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Apr 20 2023 1:36 utc | 64

Anyone know where I can view more revelatory stuff like that?

These kind of videos all over telegram, twitter, reddit, youtube. More from the Ukrainian side, or at least as far as I can tell, but that's only because the Russians have better operational security.

I assume these Ukes are already dead and the video was shot in the past month or so, but who knows? Will do more of my own research.

Posted by: LGB! | Apr 20 2023 1:36 utc | 65

@ David Levin | Apr 20 2023 0:07 utc | 54
Comical Ali ? Bahgdad Bob ? A claimed ongoing 'counter-offensive' that doesn't include ... active Operational level actual offensive OPs ? Hm ...
Sounds awfully like static purely localized tactical defensive OPs, ie merely desperately attempting to hold positions, survive whilst being 'minced'(KIA'd) & sequentially rolled-up. Essentially in passive non-response to the enemies (RF) initiative & OP tempo, 'cause that ia all the AFU can barely manage ongoing since late Dec'22 ? Shades of Monty Python sketches ...

Posted by: Outraged | Apr 20 2023 1:42 utc | 66

Reasonable speculation by Gaius Baltar posted today on Larry Johnson’s blog regarding RF’s actions at the beginning of the SMO. Worth reading.
If correct, theory helps to explain subsequent actions.

Posted by: Ciaran | Apr 20 2023 0:35 utc | 61

Worth reading the thread to get to this jewel.

Posted by: osi | Apr 20 2023 1:54 utc | 67

Ciaran @ 61

Very good article by Gaius Baltar. Ukrainians and Russians essentially think alike so it's fascinating to see them trying to outthink each other. The Ukrainians big mistake is relying on NATO. They don't seem to realize they are being used.

Posted by: dh | Apr 20 2023 2:21 utc | 68

Thanks for that link, @61

I suspect the theory is correct. The anger and vitriol spewing from NATO spokes-cretins could be due to their brilliant plan running aground on the rocks of reality.

@10 - that was intense; also quite sad to see that after more than a century, trench warfare is still with us. Obviously the Ukrainian army is not out of ammo, at least in that small sample size.

Posted by: Chris | Apr 20 2023 2:39 utc | 69

William Schryver has a new post up on his substack based on a Twitter feed. Well worth a view.

Posted by: morongobill | Apr 20 2023 2:53 utc | 70

young #33

BEST GUESS of progression at this point is:

May 1, 2023: Bakhmut completely falls to the Russians.
June 1, 2023: Ukrainian offensive is neutralized.
July 1, 2023: All of Donbas falls to the Russians.
Early July, 2023: Russia finalizes plans for a nuclear launch against the USA
July 4-12, 2023: Russia launches against the USA


The entire Ukrainazi army and its soldiers of fortune have been extra obedient in going to Artyomovsk to die. Its what they do as they are fanatics and must erase the blot on their 'manhood'.

They will be coming to Artyomovsk for months yet as they desperately exhibit their moth brain to their UKUSA masters. By the time the next autumn rolls around the USA will be slapping its pants on fire in the China lands of Asia wondering what hit it.

Russia has no need, no gain, no purpose in taking a pot shot at the USA. The USA are doing great things in true USA style to themselves. See this for a laugh.

Suicide USA style.

Leave them to it.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 20 2023 3:03 utc | 71

Mr. Simplicius The Thinker has posted yet another fine Sit-rep, "Dark Clouds Roll-in" that eventually cites a statement made by Russian Duma member and former General Andrei Gurulyov:

“We see how Orthodox priests are being bullied, hatred for Russia is being hammered into children’s heads, this is done by people who used to live in Russia – a country that was once called the Soviet Union. If they are going to drown the whole Crimea in blood, then we have only one way out - by force. No monetary hubs of Poland will help, or thoughts that there will be another Ukraine somewhere. She won't. Basically, it won't. This project will be closed one way or another, this is clear to all sane people. There are questions about the time it will take: a year, two, three, five. The deadline is 2027-2030.”

His statement along with Simplicius's prompted me to write the following long comment about that issue--the End Game and its timing:

You raise some good, valid points, Russia's demographic problem being the most important. But beyond the stated SMO goals and that of the December 2021 Security Proposals/Demands, what are the additional stated goals of Russia and China? Few seem to know that in his speech delivered on 21 September 2022 Putin made the following vow:

"It is in our historical tradition, in the fate of our people, to stop those who are striving for world domination, who threaten to dismember and enslave our Motherland, our Fatherland. We will do it now, and so it will be<.i>." [My Emphasis]

My paraphrase: We will stop those striving for world domination because that's what Russian's do, and we will again do it now; and we won't stop until we're done.

That vow's been reiterated on several occasions by Putin. A similar vow is also within China's Global Security Initiative which states No Hegemony will be allowed. Something very similar to both was stated in the Russia/China 4 February 2022 Joint Declaration, was reiterated in the recent Declarations made after the Xi/Putin Summit and is also contained within Russia's new Foreign Policy Concept that was published on 31 March 2023. If you've closely observed Russian FM Lavrov's rhetoric since February 2022--and more so now that the new Concept is out--his assignment to show to those willing to listen--most of the world--that it's the Outlaw US Empire and its gaggle of vassals who are the International law breakers, not Russia, and that Russia was completely within its rights to do what it did, is now doing, and will proceed to do. So, yes, the SMO within Ukraine will end with the extinguishing of the artificial entity that is Ukraine--whenever that occurs. And it ought to be very clear that whatever's said by the Collective West no longer matters to Russia as it sees that entire entity as operating outside the norms of International Law as laid down in the UN Charter. Do read Lavrov's remarks at the presser today in Caracas for a very good example.

No hegemony means no NATO and a defanged Outlaw US Empire. The latter has done Russia a great favor by attacking the EU, bombing the Nord Stream pipes, and applying all those illegal sanctions. Indeed, all its actions have weakened the entire Collective, which was already weak to begin with. NATO has a military force is a joke aside from its nukes that would be suicidal to use. The Collective was and remains geoeconomically dependent on Russia and also China. Neoliberal Parasitism has greatly weakened the Collective's industrial power and thus its military power while also creating a financial house of cards that will soon collapse as it's extremely unstable. Those currently holding power are incapable of diffusing the problems as their actions only serve to deepen them. So, time is very much on Russia's and China's side. At a presser earlier this month, Lavrov was asked about Russia being charged with interfering in any Western elections as has now been done; his reply was we don't need to as they're doing a very good job of it themselves, which is the truth.

An ancient maxim says not to interrupt your opponent when it's making a mistake. In the RoW's eyes, the Collective West continues to dig its hole ever deeper. Today's Global Times editorial said to Blinken and crew--Don't call us; we'll call you--along with sterner rhetoric. South Korea's playing a dangerous game of "loaning" its Master 155mm ammo and Paladin SPA systems that never transit the Pacific to the states but go to Ukraine, and its PM just lied about that arrangement which prompted Medvedev to say we'll provide arms to the North. The latest Russian economic indicators are quite positive and will continue to improve. Although it's not really spelled out anywhere, Putin has stated Russia's operating under a new economic concept, which amounts to state support for Russian's and their economy--a very different Third Way. The main inhibitor is the demographic problem--Russia needs more people, not for the military but to run its rapidly expanding economy. I expect at some point for legislation to subsidize the emigration of Russian's living outside Russia, particularly from the Baltics, but that will not be enough. Millions of people from CSTO nations already work within Russia, and millions more would migrate if the incentives were better, particularly the issue of housing which is a National Priority. And do take note that the remedy must be long lasting--multigenerational. Thus, the demographic problem will force the Go Slow policy that however must compromise with the political imperative to drive Ukie artillery out-of-range of Russian settlements--new and old.

It's that political imperative I see driving Russia's next major military moves: Something swift that pushes far is what's required, IMO. It makes sense for it to come from the North, but there must also be movement in the South. Yet, the other side of the coin regarding a conflict that lasts 5 more years must also be considered since Ukie manpower is already becoming more than limited along with its war material. It seems very likely that NATO will further step in by donning Ukie uniforms as it already has, which will create blowback in the nations they're drawn from, unless they're Polish/Baltic. Projected reports about the EU's energy situation for the 2023 Winter are not optimistic with Germany shutting down its last NPPs and Russian supplies of NPP fuel facing curtailment with no foreseeable substitutions. All these own goals just make Russian's smile. The other time consuming gamechanger is the new international financial system and its institutions that will bypass as many Outlaw US Empire choke points as possible. Imagine a vast apartment complex that's the world's nations which needs to be retrofitted with new plumbing and electrical systems and you can understand the complexity involved in that project. The current idea is to erect regional systems then tie them together as a whole, while not accommodating the Dollar/Euro Bloc until they cease being hegemonic.

So, there's my outline of the Grand Design based on what's already been declared and being constructed.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 20 2023 3:20 utc | 72

" At around 1:50 on this video, the Uke are shooting at a few Russians from the meat wave who are already down. Is this a war crime?

Posted by: LGB! | Apr 20 2023 0:25 utc | 59 "

No, its just war. The crime is Russia sending unsupported infantry against occupied fortifications.

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Apr 20 2023 3:26 utc | 73

@10 - that was intense; also quite sad to see that after more than a century, trench warfare is still with us. Obviously the Ukrainian army is not out of ammo, at least in that small sample size.

Posted by: Chris | Apr 20 2023 2:39 utc | 71

yeah, but as someone noted above, it's all small arms fire, and they even seemed to be skimping on that as we can see towards the end.

@Deplorable Commissar - I think there were some Russian mortars and other arty, and that is what probably eventually wiped that position out. You can see them trying to get down into their hole because of the artillery.

Posted by: LGB! | Apr 20 2023 3:38 utc | 74

Looks like a Ukrainian tug boat damaged a US, wait, looks like it was Russian, no, wait, no, it's a US tug boat.....maybe a market for long range tug boats opening up....hmmm.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 20 2023 3:40 utc | 75

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 19 2023 18:48 utc | 10


Stopped reading there.

Posted by: T | Apr 19 2023 19:25 utc

Same here, T.

Posted by: spudski | Apr 20 2023 3:42 utc | 76

Kiev must be targeted when the spring offensive begins. That will disrupt Ukraine's plans and many units will rush north. Bust Ukraine's bridges on their path. Target bottlenecks that build up near damaged bridges and other choke points.

Ukraine is desperate to retake lost ports as Romania, Poland and Hungary have closed Ukraine's grain transit through them. Ukrainian army will be gathering nearby to launch attacks. Target them at their gatherings.

Grain deal with Russia ends on May 13. This must not be extended. Instead target Odessa to eliminate Ukraine's shipping infrastructure. It is very limited already.

Kirov Rog and other uranium mining areas must be either taken or turned into another Bakhmut. NATO is after Ukraine's uranium mines.

Posted by: Jason | Apr 20 2023 3:47 utc | 77

It was a NASA satellite that fell in Kyiv. Coincidentally, at that moment there were kamikaze UAV flights and alarm in Kyiv.

Now it’s worth understanding whether the satellite fell by itself or ... And what kind of satellite it was, what purpose.

Same video on Twitter

Posted by: Down South | Apr 20 2023 4:17 utc | 78

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ #Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 19 Apr 2023⚡️

🔹#Russia's Border Areas:

▪️ In the #Belgorod region, a Ukrainian drone attempted to attack a power station in the village of #Dragunskoye, but was destroyed as soon as it was detected. There were no civilian casualties.

▪️ In the #Kursk region, Ukrainian UAVs hit the Tetkino Sugar Refinery, the building was damaged as a result of the detonation.

▪️ In the #Bryansk region, Ukrainian formations used drones to hit a military enlistment office in #Novozybkovo. The attack resulted in broken windows in the building, with no casualties.

🔹#Starobelsk (#Svatovo) Direction:

▪️ Ukrainian formations tried to counterattack in the wooded area west of #Kremennaya, but failed and had to retreat to their occupied positions, losing several pieces of equipment.

The AFU continues to attempt to regain the initiative in the #Chervonopopovka area and on the #Svatovo - #Kremennaya route, and to achieve this goal they throw in additional reserves.

🔹#Soledar (#Bakhmut) Direction:

▪️ Wagner PMC assault squads continue to move in the central part of #Bakhmut, having recaptured the former garment factory from the enemy.

▪️ Southwest of #Bakhmut, in the section near the highway to #Konstantinovka, fighting continues in the area of #Stupochki, where Ukrainian formations have entrenched themselves.

🔹#Donetsk Direction:

▪️ West of #Novobakhmutovka, fierce fighting continues near the #Avdeyevka fortification area (north of the city).

▪️ The Ukrainian terrorist formations shelled #Donetsk People's Republic towns again, locals were wounded in #Donetsk and surrounding settlements.

🔹#Zaporozhye Direction:

▪️ The situation on the frontline has not changed significantly. The enemy is conducting reconnaissance battle in preparation for a future counterattack, trying to find vulnerable points in the Russian defence nodes.

🔹#Kherson Direction on #SouthFront:

▪️ In the southern section of the front, artillery duels along the line of contact continue, with the RF Armed Forces striking #Kherson and its environs.

▪️ Ukrainian formations shelled settlements on the left bank of the #Dnieper River, including Kakhovka, #Tavriysk and #Gornostayevka.
➖ As a result of massive mortar shelling in Nova Kakhovka, one person was killed, two were wounded, and the city was partially de-energized.

🔸Political and other Events:

▪️ The Commission of the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture today tried to seal several buildings on the territory of Kiev Pechersk Lavra under the pretext of "checking the technical condition of the structures". The parishioners have so far managed to defend the buildings, despite the involvement of rapid response units by Ukrainian officials.

▪️ In the #Rovno region, raiders from the schismatic PCU in the village of #Golcha are trying to seize the St. Nicholas Church by cutting off the locks on the doors. Parishioners are trying to defend the church.

▪️ The Bulgarian authorities have imposed a ban on imports of Ukrainian grain, except for transit, announced acting Prime Minister Gylyb Donev.

▪️ #Romania is also considering the possibility of taking restrictive measures against Ukrainian agricultural products, Prime Minister Nicolae Ciucă said.

▪️ According to the Financial Times, #Ukraine will ask for air defence missiles at the next meeting of defence ministers at the Ramstein military base because of the approaching shortage of this type of missile.

Posted by: Down South | Apr 20 2023 4:20 utc | 79

⚡️🇺🇳🇺🇦🌾 Again about the role of the UN and Ukraine in sabotaging the “grain deal”

Last week , we detailed how UN representatives are doing everything possible to prevent ships with Ukrainian grain from reaching developing countries. Colleagues then urged journalists to politely ask the organization to explain these actions.

Today, we have new details of the work of the UN and the Kiev authorities to sabotage the "grain deal" and fulfil its declared goals.

🔻 Ukraine and the UN block the exit of ships with grain

On the afternoon of April 17, EU Foreign Affairs President Josep Borrell said that Russia had allegedly blocked 50 ships for the "grain corridor". But there is a nuance: there are actually 30 dry cargo ships, and they are idle solely because of the actions of the representatives of Ukraine and the UN in the Joint Coordination Center (JCC).

What is the reason for bulk carriers getting stuck in front of the Turkish straits? It is that the members of the Ukrainian delegation to the SKC are not interested in inspections of ships leaving the Black Sea. They are only concerned about incoming bulk carriers, for the arrival of each of which in the Odessa port, the Kiev authorities receive money. After payment, any interest in the further fate of bulk carriers from the Kiev authorities disappears.

Characteristically, the UN does not see anything wrong with such actions and does not require the Ukrainian side to increase the volume of inspections for the speedy passage of ships with grain to their destinations.

🔻 Because of the UN, ships with grain refuse to go to Africa

As we have already said, there are only four dry cargo ships in line now, chartered to deliver agricultural products to Africa. However, due to the long wait and registration denials, the owners of three of them were recently forced to change their destination from African to European ports.

In fact, even at the level of individual sea cargo carriers, an understanding has come that it is almost futile to export agricultural products to Africa along the “grain corridor”. And this is due to the principled position of the UN.

In the ports of the Odessa region, the situation is similar: at the moment, 38 ships are awaiting inspection there. Needless to say, almost all of them are sent to China, EU countries and Turkey, and not African states?

🔻What is the reason for the hype around the “grain deal”?

Looking at the current news about the cancellation of inspections, blocked courts and the statements of European politicians, the question may arise: why did the hype even arise now after a year of the “grain corridor” operation?

It's all about changing the approach of the Russian side: from April 5, it began to register ships going to African countries first of all. This broke the corruption scheme, where only dry cargo ships, whose owners contributed the amount to the management of the ports of Odessa region, were admitted to the “grain deal” as a priority . It's funny that even the Ukrainian media themselves wrote about this.

🔻And the problem for the Kiev authorities and their sponsors here is that Russia's actions are absolutely legal and fully meet the goals of the grain initiative to save the world from hunger. Therefore, they resort to their favorite tactic - they accuse the Russian side of blocking ships with grain for developing countries, modestly silent that they do not go to Africa.

Well, in this case, the UN representatives only pander to Ukraine and turn the declared humanitarian mission into a commercial scheme. Personally and purposefully doing everything possible to prevent Ukrainian grain from getting into Africa.

Posted by: Down South | Apr 20 2023 4:22 utc | 80

Posted by: Down South | Apr 20 2023 4:17 utc | 80

“Sho tse bulo?”: The ghost of Kiev shot down the Death Star NASA satellite and is afraid to admit it.

On Wednesday evening, a bright flash of unknown origin was seen in the sky over Kiev and the region, local media reported explosions in the sky. A few minutes after reports of UFOs in the region announced an air raid alert.

“Don't worry about UFOs. This is our air defense,” Yermak noted in the telegram channel, but later deleted this message.
"The flash in the sky over Kiev is the result of a NASA space satellite falling to Earth," said Sergey Popko, head of the Kyiv city military administration. - To avoid casualties from debris falling to the ground, an air raid alert was announced. Air defense did not work "

But NASA denied rumors about the fall of a US satellite in the sky over Kiev, as the object of the American agency is still in orbit. “We are tracking a NASA satellite called RHESSI, which currently remains in orbit.”

Posted by: Down South | Apr 20 2023 4:25 utc | 81

spudski | Apr 20 2023 3:42 utc | 78

I posted a link to the actual article up thread. Cairns Australia dated the 1st. Easy enough to find using what PK quoted as search term.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 20 2023 4:54 utc | 82

Karlof1 @74
Another fine synthesis.
I had been hearing that RF's demographic promotion efforts of the past decade have resulted in better trends than in Europe (low bar, I know). Clearly, for the West, which makes little, falling population is not a problem but a goal. For economies aspiring to see its general population thriving, people are needed.

Have to admit that betrayal by the Russian deep state / fifth column is about the only thing short of nuclear war that I see ending in Russia's defeat.

Posted by: Paul Damascene | Apr 20 2023 4:56 utc | 83

An LGBT troll has hit the bar.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 20 2023 4:57 utc | 84

I posted a link to the actual article up thread. Cairns Australia dated the 1st. Easy enough to find using what PK quoted as search term.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 20 2023 4:54 utc

Thank you, Peter.

Posted by: spudski | Apr 20 2023 5:05 utc | 85

peter@AU1 @ 86

apparently premiers from oz are trekking to in canada we're still locked solid with empire. although i've been thinking...with france selling off some its $, macron having as pepe calls it a 'road to damascus' moment...that maybe city is about to throw america under the bus, along with ukraine.

Posted by: emersonreturn | Apr 20 2023 5:06 utc | 86

Can't help get the feeling that the Ukraine probes searching for weak points on the front line will only find what gaps the Russians have left to allow them to enter the Killing Zone.

It also seems weird that the Europeans seem to be running the war on Bankers hours, ie 9.00am to 3.30pm Monday to Friday not including public holidays. The fact that armaments to Ukraine are a matter of an agenda item for an upcoming meeting seems bizarre. You would think that this would be an ongoing item and the fact that it is not speaks volumes.

The leadership of Ukraine seem to have a lot of trouble joining the dots, that the rest of the West is not really interested in them actually winning, just doing enough to be able to say we did our best, sorry....

Posted by: ZimZum | Apr 20 2023 5:07 utc | 87

Petri Krohn #3 Uhuru - African People’s Socialist Party was raided in 2 cities last year. Dancing with Bears John Helmer (I believe) interviewed them after the raid. Early Jan they were stating they expected indictments.

They are very heavy into nutrition, pre-natal health, getting men out the the prison slave industry. Ellul supposedly came up with "think globally, act locally." FBI coming down hard on them.

Further comments on them probably belong in the Open Thread.

Thanks for the head up.

Posted by: paxmark1 | Apr 20 2023 5:08 utc | 88

emersonreturn | Apr 20 2023 5:06 utc | 88

That they are. It gives a little hope. The media though is controlled by the US. It remains to be seen when the crunch comes if they will fold or stand.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 20 2023 5:13 utc | 89

An LGBT troll has hit the bar.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 20 2023 4:57 utc | 86

After watching that Ukroid side footage, I suspected that.

Maybe my screen isn't big enough, the resolution not clear enough and my eyes and brain not sharp enough - but I couldn't see the orcs or faggots the Ukroid nco was screaming about. Peter, maybe you have a better eye for detecting the latter?!

Posted by: Ново З | Apr 20 2023 5:14 utc | 90

peterAU1 @ 91

good on em. hope's dry season may be ending. israel's getting hit from 3 sides, lavrov's in cuba, china's defence minister's been on a shopping spree & yemen's finally seeing peace.

Posted by: emersonreturn | Apr 20 2023 5:24 utc | 91

Ново З | Apr 20 2023 5:14 utc | 92

I had to sign in to see the video. Couldnt be bothered about that. LGBT was wanting everyone to see how the orcs in human waves were getting slaughtered. It comes through in the comments.

It is an exceptional lethal war. Both sides get ambushed at time. Neither side attacks in human waves, but the Ukraine side is often pushed to attack in suicide missions.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 20 2023 5:29 utc | 92

Paul Damascene @85

I had been saying to Karlof1 that I saw little (other than RF Deep State betrayal) that could produce a Russian defeat (conventional at least).

But the truth is it is hard to be clear on what constitutes the line between victory and defeat. Perhaps victory in Ukraine might look like the outcome of the Chechen wars. But this would only be possible if NATO / US can also be defeated / beaten back as an active enemy of Russia. This seems possible--NATO and Europe can be broken. It will depend if US continues to break itself. What happens when the only buyers of US Treasuries are Americans who either are borrowing from the Fed or are the Fed? And no foreign power will buy US debt resistance in an significant quantity?

Short of a Chechen style transition to peace, the neocons have their Afghanistan template, updated for the neoNazi White Isis, rather than the Mujahedeen. And even the older template of the Galenist 'stay-behind' DRG teams that we know CIA was preparing.

As Martyanov pointed out, a partial antidote is that the Westards seem to be allowing Ukraine not just to demilitarize itself and demilitarize NATO, but to largely destroy the mobilization potential of Ukraine for a generation. Or it will be an insurgency of teens, dotards and women.

Posted by: Paul Damascene | Apr 20 2023 5:43 utc | 93

One cannot help but think, and this is out the box thinking, that following the Brexit event where the U.K. left the #EU and was being treated as a minor nation the British Empire manoeuvred the world into this war to destroy Germans (again), milk the American stupid morons for cash and equipment sucking them into a war (again) and ensure western oligarchy (of perverts) is maintained against Russian influence (again)…

Americans always forget who actually was in charge of the Dominion voting machines and who controls the media…

All of a sudden it is relevant adn a power broker (again) despite having no army, tanks or ammunition (again)


Plus $2.5Bn PER WEEK being given by the USA to a crooked thieving coke head with ‘stand for as long as it takes’ promises is milking at a level never seen before that even #molebutt claps like a hungry seal at on The media.

Posted by: Timboz | Apr 20 2023 5:49 utc | 94

Timboz [96]

It is always a revelation to hear of the fiendishly clever British and their nefarious skill in manipulating lesser breeds like the Americans who are a simple people into skulduggery.

Sadly it is so hard to imagine Moore of MI6 or Wallace of MoD or Johnson or Sunak being so clever and successful when they have created a broken country with no future. BreXit was what ordinary people wanted in a revolt against elites- Americans voted Trump in their revolt - Elites fought back

Europe‘s problems come from Washington and the ability of men like Pinchuk and Khordokovsky to BUY American politicians while the dim US voters suck wind

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 20 2023 5:59 utc | 95

@NJH | Apr 19 2023 18:02 utc | 1

Patriots now apparently confirmed delivered. Likely happened previously.
A Patriot act as good as any.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 20 2023 6:09 utc | 96

Wet weather in eastern Ukraine and an occasional dry but cloudy day for the next fortnight. Slush and sloppy roads dont suit panthers let alone leopards. You can count on the Siberian Tigers to keep up the pace.

Unlikely that there will be a formal counterattack from the nazi team but I expect lots of imaginary attacks in the style now redefined by the Uke naziminister.

The UKUSA remains waist deep in the big muddy.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 20 2023 6:10 utc | 97

Interesting times.

The last country 404 conscripts are trapped in the high rise district of Artyomovsk. Thus, comes to an end the last road block between Kharkov and Kiev.

In other local country 404 news. Relic recovering thieving Smithsonian experts from the USSA have moved into the recently confiscated monastery of the caves. Only to find all the religious transportable gold and all valuable artifacts have literally been spirited away.

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Apr 20 2023 6:13 utc | 98

The Ukraine at this point can talk but not walk. The "offensive" -- if they try it - will be a death sentence for the Banderites, with the whole house of cards falling. So all this talk is just propaganda. The problem is there is so much of it in eh mainstream media. Most of us still read the MSM, or watch TV --or Google. And constant repetition works. Especially when we get it from friends and family. Universal literacy is both a blessing and a curse. Edward Bernays was quick to point out that education is also a medium for propaganda.

As I write here:

Posted by: julianmacfarlane | Apr 20 2023 6:14 utc | 99

I don't see it mentioned much, but it seems to me that in an existential war, Russia might not "win", but they simply cannot "lose". The reason is that massive pile of nukes. Same for China and USA. Maybe France, not sure.

If all else fails, they will unload the entire thing. Probably don't even need to aim them. Could even drop them all in their own territory. As long as they explode, it's very likely nuclear winter, worldwide mass starvation, and if the survivors are lucky, centuries trying to recreate the industrial revolution.

Is that wrong? I really wish the West would stop poking the bear.

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Apr 20 2023 6:26 utc | 100

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