Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 14 2023 14:58 utc | 1
I can only assume Morawiecki holds a US passport and a healthy US dollar bank account loaded with kickbacks. He cannot seriously imagine being turfed out in the 2023 election by an angry voting public and continuing to live in the mess he has created.
Poland has the GDP of Belgium and the pretensions of China or India. It is propped up by massive transfers from Germany through EU Structural Funds and is running up unbelievable debts to USA and South Korea for weapons…………..it has a $20 bn defence budget in 2023 and is running another $10 billion in debt to buy weapons abroad……….
How such a poor country can sustain such extravagance is unclear……….
I am not sure Russia need do anything to Poland other than watch it collapse economically……..there is no prospect of EU having funds going forward and Germany will be in Green financial crisis very quickly.
Personally I doubt Germany will exist within its current borders by 2030 let alone Poland…….Western Europe is headed for turmoil and France is leading the way

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 14 2023 15:20 utc | 4

How such a poor country can sustain such extravagance is unclear……….
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 14 2023 15:20 utc | 4
Here’s a pitch.
Just a notion.
Poland expectations for being the bulwark against the evil Russkies needs economic recognition.
Get the US to “refocus ” where its FDI head’s to in Europe.
Instead of Ireland send it to Poland for example.

Posted by: jpc | Apr 14 2023 15:42 utc | 6

2 Questions Barflies:
1) How long will the Ukrainian Civil War last ?
2) How long will the ‚war‘ between NATOland and Eurasia last ?

Posted by: Exile | Apr 14 2023 16:12 utc | 8

So it seems that the RF now has complete air supremacy over the front lines in eastern Ukraine. I’m basing this off of reports from Military summary, DPA and other independent sources that are increasingly saying that it’s “bombs away” on the UAF in Zaporizhza, Donetsk and closer in rear supply areas.
Plus increased sorties to take out the UAF on the muddy road of death. Zee just can’t stop trying to send in reinforcements but they’re getting killed.
I think this spells curtains for the spring offensive but fake news outlets will keep hope alive.
Meanwhile, on another topic, the leaker has been formally charged. And we have more confirmation he’s a patsy. All the charges, while serious, are in regular courts where his defense team (assuming he doesn’t just plead guilty in exchange for a slap on the wrist ) will have full subpoena power and discovery on the prosecutions evidence.
What that means, kids, is this is no Assange or Snowden treatment. The kid is gonna get off easy, maybe probation in exchange for keeping his mouth shut.
In other words, the fix is in.

Posted by: Chris | Apr 14 2023 16:24 utc | 10

I was listening to Mr Martynov this morning. He reckoned that US subs were still the bees knees. You’d have to respect his opinion, him being an expert and all, but I couldn’t help wondering when was the last time they were tested out properly. After all, Javelins, and HIMARS and M777s and all were also supposed to be the best thing since sliced bread and they all proved to have a glass jaw – to mix metaphors, I guess. It would of course be wise to assume that they are as wonderful as claimed and not rush into fighting them but still . . .? Then there is also the case that a competent person using a dated instrument can be expected to deliver better results than a fool with top of the range equipment and if the US leadership is like that chap Milley can we really expect submarine captains to be better? It’s the Milleys of the world that are appointing them after all.

Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Apr 14 2023 16:32 utc | 12

If true, about gaining air supremacy then Tu22 M3M’s loaded with glide bombs, conducting precision arc light strikes against troop concentrations and rear support areas might qualify for the soubriquet ‘game-changer’. CAS would still be restricted to pitch-up attacks by the threat of the MANPDS still proliferating the battle space, though all weather platforms would wreak havoc.
We have transitioned it seems from late ‘44 to early ‘45, so still time for the Ukrainians to launch several pointless, counter-productive counter-attacks.

Posted by: Milites | Apr 14 2023 16:50 utc | 14

2 Questions Barflies:
1) How long will the Ukrainian Civil War last ?
2) How long will the ‚war‘ between NATOland and Eurasia last ?
Posted by: Exile | Apr 14 2023 16:12 utc | 8
I believe the war in Ukraine will end this year, as stated by some on the Russian side.
A war between the NATO states and the Five Eyes with Eurasia will not start, but the “war”, meaning hybrid and every kind of harassment and evil trick imaginable, will continue until there is a radical change of system in the “western democracies”. When that will happen no one can predict.

Posted by: JB | Apr 14 2023 17:12 utc | 16

Zombie War: Plan B
Wilikins | Apr 14 2023 16:42 utc | 13
I’m sure some braindead in natostan really believed that Ukr can win something, anything. It’s believable when you take white powders like most EU leaders and use powerpoint for military planning like those “leaks”.
But the only thing they wanted was destruction and a long war, which will allow them to strike various targets in Russia pretending to be Ukr (like NS, Crimea bridge, Engels, Moskva, ZNPP, the airport in Belarus, cyber attacks and who knows what else), impose sanctions on anyone on the planet, steal any money and so on. There is no plan B, it’s plan A “for as long as it takes” to quote nato itself.
For the regular people MSM will present some sort of winning constantly, that is guaranteed to be some cringe story, ghost of Kiev or pickles jar style. There is a sort of winning as long as the war kills Russians and destroys their territory. For that nato can thank team Shoigu, they’re still not able to push the front line outside their country. in Kiev it’s not even war. They could do artillery duels there for as long as they want, using as much DU as nato wants. And when Wagner will finish Bakhmut they’ll leave. You never know when great minds like Surovikin return and decide defending it is too hard

Posted by: rk | Apr 14 2023 17:29 utc | 18

Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Apr 14 2023 16:32 utc | 12
The consensus seems to be that the US has a definite edge in submarine warfare.
I don’t know the subject myself but I do wonder if Russia has done more with supercavitation than has been made public and also whether there is any truth to the seemingly wild speculation of the Poseidon nuclear torpedo actually being an anti-submarine weapon.
Contributions welcome!

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 14 2023 17:43 utc | 20

Shadowbanned @3
Strelkov is probably a bad example of a legitimate category of patriotic / pro-Russian doomers.
Whether RF should have taken more aggressive action sooner is a legitimate question–Putin himself seems to concede to its legitimacy, and has apologized face-to-face to the mothers of soldiers, if history, so to speak, should judge his government to have acted too slowly.
The idea that Russia–Putin of all world leaders–was duped by lightweights like Hollande & Merkel over Minsk has always seemed implausible. Both sides were playing for time. For the West, war was the only option. For Russia, striving for even a bad peace while preparing for the eventuality of an unavoidable war.
Russia–and again VV Putin specifically–operate from the ‘handicap’ (in these madcap unaccountable times) of understanding, fearing and hating war. From the 2007 Munich address, this has been complemented by a vision of a greater Eurasia from Lisbon to Vladivostok. Russia would have been the absolutely indispensable hinge power connecting Europe to the rest of Eurasia. Tragically, Ukraine was also in a position to be an extension of that vital connective tissue and could have reaped great wealth from its position, had it been able to be prised from the clutches of the Westoid oligarchy. Not losing Europe was indispensable to this vision for Russia.
Can anyone say today with confidence that Russia would have been in a position in 2015 to humble the Westoid Globalist Oligarchy financially, economically, geopolitically and now militarily? Yes, Ukraine got stronger, but the West overall has been getting weaker. And the Ukraine conflict that the West insisted on, and that Moscow would have preferred to defer if not avoid altogether, has only accelerated the trends weakening the Empire.
That said, at least for the foreseeable future, Russia has lost Europe to a US that is happy to see Europe destroyed rather than fall into the multipolar camp. Which makes it even harder to justify the suffering in Donbas since 2015, except to say that the prospect of a Russian strategic defeat was very real in 2015. Getting to Odessa is not the end of the game. Gaining Odessa then losing Russia was a real possibility.
I personally would venture that Russia continues to be really ineffective at hammering the West at the UNSC for its violations of Minsk, for the shelling of Donbas, the duplicity of the OSCE, the UNHRC, etc. Everyone likes and respects Lavrov, and maybe the West was too far gone to ever be brought to reason, but it seems to me Russia could have done more.
Furthermore, I would fault RF intelligence services / Foreign Ministry for not grasping the depth of hatred for Russia–especially among Russophones–in Ukraine. The Lisbon to Kiev to Moscow to Vladivostok vision should have been salable in Ukraine, and even now could be used to hold out a prosperous peace that Ukraine and Eastern Europe more generally have forfeited.
So criticism is warranted, but accusing Putin of treason or stupidity is 6th-column stuff that on this list should be recognized as the province of trolls.

Posted by: Paul Damascene | Apr 14 2023 18:11 utc | 22

Baerbock carries water for Blinken in China:
Call on ‘aggressor’ Russia to end war, Germany urges China
Nothing very new but supports some of the views in post by
Posted by: Wilikins | Apr 14 2023 16:42 utc | 13

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 14 2023 18:23 utc | 24

@21 not true.
Underground shelters will survive. I don’t think the bombs pierce concrete.
Soldiers in trenches will mostly survive too,I think it’d have to be close for the blast wave to turn them inside out.
Aboveground apartment blocks? Yup.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 14 2023 18:25 utc | 26

Thank you Barflies for your thoughtful answers – follow up question:
1a) how would Kiev capitulate if it’s 100% controlled by Washington ?

Posted by: Exile | Apr 14 2023 18:31 utc | 28

There is more drumming and news around that the rumor of Zelensky selling off western Ukraine to the Poles is actually real. It seems to me as preparation for the “Anschluss”, and it’s yet another Ukro scheme to join Nato/EU and expand the war. I think if/when that happens, Romania and Hungary will grab parts too.
I think the immediate logic in this is the ability to implement even larger mobilization and use garrisons in western Ukraine in the east front. The second logic is to get Polish army in somehow. Third logic is, Zelensky, Danilov and Podolyak know the end is near so they implement the final solution for Ukrainian nation state.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 14 2023 19:02 utc | 30

@25
Soldiers in trenches will mostly survive too,I think <\blockquote>
Survive and remain any sort of effective soldier are two completely different things.
Kind of hard to respond to commands and fire your weapon effectively when your eardrums have been destroyed and your brains are pudding from shell shock.

Posted by: Chris | Apr 14 2023 19:14 utc | 32

@31 they tried that in WW1 with mass artillery barrages, millions and millions of shells. Needless to say a lot of soliders survived even days of bombardment to drown lots of attacks in blood. I know these are big bombs, but they saturated the lines in WW1 so everyone was close to blast waves.
American dropped more bombs in vietnam than world war 2, and it was never enough.
no, this bomb them back to the stone age stuff is a lot harder in practice than anyone would like to admit, militarily.
Chemical weapons added up to nothing as well, and I wouldnt be surprised to see war going on strong after a significant nuclear exchange either. People are tough to kill, and motivated trained people need to be killed by other people if you want to take their territory.
Heck even making weapons can continue in significant quantities far long after you’d think it would be impossible. For instance German war production increased throughout 1944 despite the bombing, and didnt really fall off until the last supply lines from the balkans and eastern europe were cut off at the end of the year.

Posted by: neofeudalfuture | Apr 14 2023 19:27 utc | 34

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/55213

🇷🇺🇺🇦Prigozhin released detailed material about the battle for Artemovsk. There are a lot of interesting things in it.
1. The strategic role of Bakhmut is not so great. Bakhmut is followed by Seversk, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka and Chasiv Yar: settlements included in the so-called “Donbass ring” and forming a fortified area. On the one hand, Bakhmut is part of this fortified area, on the other hand, the capture of Bakhmut itself will not ensure a fleeting victory over Ukraine, the road to the Dnieper, or even the capture of Donbass.
2. The Ukrainian army has gathered a sufficient number of forces. About 200 000 already sufficiently trained fighters, who have passed two or three months of training and coordination, are ready to perform combat tasks. The amount of weapons and ammunition is quite enough for these 200 000 to go on the offensive in various directions. The troops ready for a counteroffensive are in the areas of concentration – they have enough of everything …. (continued)
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/60095
🇷🇺 Streets named after Daria Dugina and Alexander Zakharchenko appeared in Melitopol

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 14 2023 19:28 utc | 36

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 14 2023 15:20 utc | 4:

I can only assume Morawiecki holds a US passport and a healthy US dollar bank account loaded with kickbacks…..

Those are not really pre-requisites for European politicians to babble and prostitute themselves to the whims of the Empire. There are loads and loads of these idiots all over Europe–Von der Leyen; Stoltenberg; Baerbock; Duda; the clowns in Baltic/Finland/Swedes/Norway/Belgium/UK/da da da…–you name them, they are all the same. They perceive that babbling in hyperbole against widely perceived villains such as Putin/Xi/Kim/Raisi/et al win them political points, boost their political careers, and/or just enhance their own wet dreams. Many of them, no , I should say most of them, may actually believe in what they spewed because they are that stupid and ill informed.
The sadness is actually the current situation across most of Europe today, old and now, that the population has been brainwashed to the point of being so receptive to the garbage of these kinds of politician being peddled. The brainwashed crowds include the majority of those who work in government bureaucracies and the media. The same goes for the populations across the Atlantic and the South Pacific.
But I do sense a whiff of fresher air sweeping across. It’s permeating the Middle East, the South/Central Americas, and even the Southwest Ole Europe. When ole when would it reach us here in North America???

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Apr 14 2023 19:29 utc | 38

@34 unimperator
There was some talk if article 5 applies to forces outside their own territory. Legally it seems to be NO, but rules are for serfs anyways. If the US wants it to apply, they can simply declare it legal and invoke it on their own behalf.
So maybe, maybe, its really uncharted territory here. Bottom line I feel that the US and its strongest NATO allies are willing to fight Russia in Ukraine but the moment Russia attacks nato bases involved in fighting outside ukraine, the possibilities are endless.

Posted by: neofeudalfuture | Apr 14 2023 19:40 utc | 40

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 14 2023 18:25 utc | 25
Fun fact, I was in a house three plus miles away from a 1000kg Luftmine B, that had been snared by a trawler, being destroyed in a controlled explosion. The windows shook, the explosion was clearly audible and the house’s floor flexed and rippled. I dread to think what a 1500kg FAB would do, detonating on solid ground!

Posted by: Milites | Apr 14 2023 19:50 utc | 42

Military summary analysis today:
-Bakhmut is getting sliced into multiple local pockets. While some of them may not be physically completely cut, many of them can effectively be cut by controlling the bordering streets with snipers, etc.
-Bilogorivka, NE of Seversk, maybe another cauldron forming
-Ukraine may have even 200k some kind of committable reserves (this probably includes the assumed Nato attack force, 13 mech brigades) and loads of first wave cannon fodder

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 14 2023 19:53 utc | 44

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 14 2023 19:28 utc | 35
Thought he faced 80K, now it’s 200K or a 250% increase, or am I getting the wrong end of the stick?

Posted by: Milites | Apr 14 2023 20:13 utc | 46

1) How long will the Ukrainian Civil War last ?
2) How long will the ‚war‘ between NATOland and Eurasia last ?
Posted by: Exile | Apr 14 2023 16:12 utc | 8
Shoigu claims arms production will soar 7-8 fold this year, and Russians love their symbolism, so I won’t be surprised if May Day or Victory Day will be the start of a big offensive. x8 force multiplier and 500k troops should shift the battlefield decisively. They are holding off until they get the ammo to just continuously fight at high intensity. Ukraine holds Russia off with its 650k army or whatever it is today, because 650k*3 = 1.95m. As I mentioned in https://aaronlee.substack.com/p/estimated-russian-casualties-as-of Russia has a 200k army with 8.18 force multiplier for a 1.636m equivalent. That to my mind explains the entirety of why Russia has not routed all Ukrainian forces. Once those 300k soldiers drafted from November hit the battlefield, it should coincide with all that new kit Shoigu referenced. 500k * 8.18 = 4.09m. 4.09 / 3 = 1.363m. Do you really see Ukraine doubling its manpower in the next month? When Russia picks up the high intensity warfare, it’s going to freak out NATO. I bet Russia is aiming to win by the 2 year anniversary.
Posted by: Jonathan | Apr 14 2023 20:14 utc | 46
Agreed, re 2-7. Well organized thoughts. Very good metaphor w/ the Ring of Power. A friend of mine once told me that security services are like the Ring Of Gyges: to become omnipotent one must become absolutely corrupt.
I wrote about this yesterday. San Francisco values are anti-human values and they have replicated across the country. And today I wrote about how the Russian and American iron triangle are related to each other.

Posted by: Aaron Lee | Apr 14 2023 20:41 utc | 48

Old school Beltway intel source, retired: Controlled leak. Internal. Way, way up – beyond the CIA. 21-year old gamer is a fall guy. The circus is in town – actually a show that never ends.
Pepe Escobar
https://t.me/rocknrollgeopolitics/6753
https://twitter.com/RealPepeEscobar/status/1646673847540744192?t=PlpKT5UkKQyYTh8kj6mFMg&s=35
Good enough for me, hope that’s the last word and last I hear of this nonsense. Can’t for the life of me imaging who it’s supposed to fool? The people who consume MSM? The are already fooled. Social media? Who cares what they think? The RF??? Sheesh, that’s not even worth the copier ink and paper involved.
I figure all this psyops crap fits into David Graeber’s bullshit jobs theory. USA and UK have tens of thousands of paid wankers who have to justify their paychecks and just churn out crap projects like this latest document leak. Doesn’t matter the rhyme or reason as long as they justify their paychecks.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Apr 14 2023 20:49 utc | 50

@33 There is no comparison between the artillery shells of WWI and huge aerial bombs like the Russian FABs. The apt comparison is the crushing of German forces on the western front by aerial bombardment in WWII and the defeat of the Bulge offensive by Allied airpower. In order to prepare and execute an offensive, the Ukrainians have to mass their forces, and this makes them a target for airstrikes. With the Ukrainian AD umbrella gone, they will be destroyed from above. Conversely, the Russians will advance with classic combined arms tactics, relying on potent airstrikes to clear the way.

Posted by: HH | Apr 14 2023 21:01 utc | 52

So, Baerbock today “approved” the Chinese “plan” in Ukraine, yet was surprised why China doesn’t put pressure on Russia to end SMO. The bimbo conveniently forgot that it’s a Nato mess and they control the other war party, Zelensky, which is why China doesn’t do anything.
What’s most important though that they are whining for a freezing/ceasefire of the SMO conflict, which is direct evidence of the deplorable state of Nato in ability to continue.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 14 2023 21:17 utc | 54

Re: HH | Apr 14 #51
Agreed. There is a qualitative as well as quantitative difference between the detonation of a few kilograms of high explosives verses a few tons. The big bombs create a lethal overpressure that can kill even inside trenches and bunkers The thermobaric bombs are almost an order of magnitude more devastating.
It is very possible to build bomb shelters, even expedient bomb shelters, that can protect troops from these weapons. But the troops are then immobilized and ineffective.

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Apr 14 2023 21:47 utc | 56

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 14 2023 21:45 utc | 54
That’s a very powerful piece of writing, William G. Thank you.

Posted by: Mexicana | Apr 14 2023 22:02 utc | 58

To add on to William Gruff’s grim post and story – 54 21:45 utc -, one might also have a look at the infamous Paraguayan war (or war of the Triple Alliance), which might be the most stubborn example of how far one side can keep fighting until exhausted and nearly exterminated. To put it bluntly: it was bad, it was so bad that I suppose any sane person would rather see his own country surrender at once than go through something that bad – at least when the terms of surrender are such, and not, say, what ISIS or 3rd Reich would impose upon their most hated and despised opponents.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Apr 14 2023 22:25 utc | 60

@7 it’s still running at a massive discount which is the point to withhold money from russia.
Conceivably if it goes above 60 but still 30 percent or more discounted to the regular rate it’s still working.
Unfortunately they didn’t says a permanent discount, they said 60.
So your half right, but a fixed price was always stupid. Especially if inflation runs rampant.
There’s also no price limit on the rupee prices imposed by the west unless they’re going to tell India what it’s exchange rate is! Lol. I would love to see that.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 14 2023 18:18 utc | 23
A quick look at Urals pricing shows that it has always sold at a discount to Brent, as every oil location has it’s own particular properties.
Western Canadian Select consistently sells at a huge discount to West Texas Intermediate.
So Russia isn’t hurting and I doubt their all-found costs exceed $20Usd/bbl

Posted by: kupkee | Apr 14 2023 22:28 utc | 62

William Gruff asks:
“The question with regards to the Ukraine is how badly demolished does the Ukraine have to become before the American Empire and its nasty NAFO cheerleaders decide they are satisfied?”
I suspect the war will continue as long as the American MIC can profit from it.

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 14 2023 22:44 utc | 64

On the USN: As usual, the Heritage Foundation’s assessment is the place to go for facts. Let’s begin with this set:

Of particular concern is the increased production of nuclear-powered warships, most notably nuclear-powered submarines that would be vital in any conflict with China. Limited nuclear shipbuilding capacity may constrain the Navy’s plans to increase the build rate from two attack submarines per year to three while concurrently building one ballistic missile submarine.
To support a larger nuclear-powered fleet, the relevant public shipyards have increased their workforce by 16 percent since 2013, but this still falls short of the workforce needed to achieve the Navy’s objectives. As demand increases for nuclear-powered warships to pace the threat from China and Russia into the foreseeable future, it remains to be seen whether the public shipyards will be able to sustain the recruitment of skilled labor in the numbers needed.

Here’s the segment reporting on subs:

Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSBN). The Columbia-class will relieve the aging Ohio-class SSBN fleet. Because of the implications of this change for the nation’s strategic nuclear deterrence, the Columbia-class SSBN remains the Navy’s top acquisition priority. To ensure the continuity of this leg of the U.S. nuclear triad, the first Columbia-class SSBN must be delivered on time for its first deterrent patrol in 2031. To achieve this goal, the Navy signed a $9.47 billion contract in November 2020 with General Dynamics Electric Boat for the first in-class boat and advanced procurement for long-lead-time components of the second hull. At a May 18, 2022, hearing, it was noted that the lead ship’s keel-laying ceremony was to be on June 6, 2022.
However, there are concerns in Congress that the Department of Defense (DOD) may not be fully utilizing special authorities granted the Navy to ensure that this critical program is adequately resourced. Specifically, in 2014, the Congress established the National Sea-Based Deterrence Fund, which has saved more than $1.4 billion using flexible funding but “has yet to utilize the core function of the NSBDF—namely, to provide increased flexibility to repurpose funds into it to buy down the fiscal impact of the program on our other shipbuilding priorities.”
Nuclear Attack Submarines (SSN). SSNs are multi-mission platforms whose stealth enables clandestine intelligence collection; surveillance; anti-submarine warfare (ASW); anti-surface warfare (ASuW); special operations forces insertion and extraction; land attack strikes; and offensive mine warfare. The newest class of SSN, the Block V Virginia with the Virginia Payload Module (VPM) enhancement, is important to the Navy’s overall strike capacity, enabling the employment of an additional 28 Tomahawk cruise missiles over earlier SSN variants. Construction of Block V submarines began in September 2019 with the Oklahoma (SSN 802) to be delivered May 2027 and three more boats to be delivered before the end of the decade.
The FY 2021 National Defense Authorization Act included additional funds for advanced procurement that preserves a future option to buy as many as 10 Virginia-class submarines through FY 2023. As indicated previously, increasing Virginia-class production has raised concerns regarding strain on the industrial base, and the FY 2023 budget would put $1.6 billion toward expansion of the submarine industrial base “to support the Navy plan of serial production of 1 COLUMBIA plus 2 VIRGINIAs starting in FY25/26.” Quality control of the supply chain is a key factor in submarine construction, and if it is not done well, the consequences can be catastrophic. That is why the premature replacement of critical submarine parts in 2021—parts that are intended to last the life of the boat—remains a concern. Added vigilance will be required as the Navy finds new suppliers to meet future increased submarine production as well as the potential need to provide support to AUKUS.

And now for the overall score:

Capacity Score: Very Weak
This Index assesses that a battle force consisting of 400 manned ships is required for the U.S. Navy to do what is expected of it today. The Navy’s current battle force fleet of 298 ships and intensified operational tempo combine to reveal a service that is much too small relative to its tasks. Contributing to a lower assessment is the Navy’s persistent inability to arrest and reverse the continued diminution of its fleet while adversary forces grow in number and capability. On its current trajectory, the Navy will shrink further to 280 ships by 2037. The result is a score of “very weak,” which is down from the 2022 Index. Depending on the Navy’s ability to realize aggressive growth, reverse early decommissioning plans, increase its end strength, and develop creative service life extensions, its capacity score will probably remain “very weak” for the foreseeable future.
Capability Score: Marginal Trending Toward Weak
The overall capability score for the Navy remains “marginal” with downward pressure as the Navy’s technological edge narrows against peer competitors China and Russia. The combination of a fleet that is aging faster than old ships are being replaced and the rapid growth of competitor navies with modern technologies has only intensified the danger for U.S. naval power. Without meaningful progress in fielding systems that are able to defend against an array of threats, greater integration of unmanned systems into the fleet, and development of a family of new long-range weapons, especially in air-to-air combat, next year’s capability score could well decline to “weak.”
Readiness Score: Weak
The Navy’s readiness is rated lower this year as “weak.” This is due primarily to the Navy’s persistent struggle to recapitalize antiquated, inadequate maintenance infrastructure and workforce to meet current needs. The effectiveness of training and exercises measured against China will be an increasingly critical metric in this score.
Overall U.S. Navy Score: Weak
The Navy’s overall score for the 2023 Index is “weak” driven by lower scores in capacity and readiness. To correct this trend, the Navy will have to eliminate several readiness and capacity bottlenecks while seeing to it that America has an operational fleet with the numbers and capabilities postured to counter Russian and Chinese naval advances. There is added urgency given that China is aggressively posturing itself to obtain maximum advantage over Taiwan and many of the U.S. Navy’s efforts to improve itself will take several years to realize.

There’re additional tables describing ship type and their assessment. This evaluation is done for all service branches on an annual basis and is extremely authoritative. I cite and link to the Heritage Foundation’s Report several times yearly to deal with discussions like the one above. Again, here is the overall assessment of the Outlaw US Empire’s military:

In the aggregate, the United States’ military posture is rated “weak.” The 2023 Index concludes that the current U.S. military force is at significant risk of not being able to meet the demands of a single major regional conflict while also attending to various presence and engagement activities.

The several previous years ratings weren’t much better than 2023’s, something that ought to have been considered prior to confronting Russia and China, but Neocons being what they are ignored the Empire’s ability not just to conduct war but to support Ukraine/NATO. That $1 Trillion yields a “weak” military ought to get everyone responsible fired. What the Outlaw US Empire has for a military is a Yes Sir! No Can Do Sir! military 100% unfit for Total Industrial War.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 14 2023 23:06 utc | 66

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-worlds-about-to-change-big-time/
The important part of this article for me is that by comparison with the lack of ammunition of the NATOnazis the Indian army can no longer conceive of its planned ultra brief offensive to beat Pakistan – the so called Cold Start doctrine – since it has not even ammunition for more than 2 weeks combat at most (it had ammunition for 3 days and was working to increase it to 10 days in 2020-21). So any “war” from now on will be fictional like Modi’s “surgical strikes” on Pakistan in 2018, and it will be “unpatriotic” to doubt that anything happened.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 15 2023 0:10 utc | 68

LATEST from TeleTruth
Wagner’s tank demolishes a multi-storey building occupied by Ukrainian fighters in Bakhmut
https://youtu.be/0ooWGJifLf4

Posted by: HERMIUS | Apr 15 2023 0:16 utc | 70

Posted by: Roger | Apr 14 2023 23:03 utc | 64
Don’t also forget the Rodney Dangerfield effect, as exemplified in ‘Caddyshack’. Trump was not from the Big Club, he was an other, tolerated because of his fame, but definitely an inferior. Suddenly, people whose psyches are so fragile that they have to rewrite definitions to ‘win’ arguments or cancel people who threaten their self-constructed identity as the elite, see Trump triumph. Their bubble world popped that November night in 2016, and as reality poured in, threatening to crush them, TDS rushed in to save the day. Instantly the world made sense again, he’d obviously stolen the election and they were once again the far-sighted, superior beings they’d been told, by so many, that they were.

Posted by: Milites | Apr 15 2023 0:35 utc | 72

Putin’s / Russia’s stupid tolerance of multi ethnic / multicultural BS is going to bite it in the ass just like its doing to Europe the US and other, formerly White majority nations.
So repeat after me: No matter which side wins this ” war ” all sides lose in the end. So sad.
” BASTRYKIN SOUNDED THE ALARM – THE NUMBER OF SERIOUS CRIMES OF MIGRANTS HAS TRIPLED ”
” While NATO proxies from Ukraine are preparing for an offensive in the South-West of the country, Russia is threatened by a “second front”, moreover, inside the country. The front, as it is fashionable to say, is networked, that is, without a single commander, a single organization, but with common goals – the capture of living space and the establishment of its own rules, laws and traditions. Often – with the help of fists and knives, which was once again shown by the events in Chelyabinsk, where a gang of migrants stabbed a Russian schoolboy. Of course, this is a consequence of the criminal migration policy of recent decades, a policy that has recently been actively pursued by the Khusnullins, Sobyanins and the like. But this does not make society any easier – especially since the Russian elite does not show the slightest remorse and desire to reconsider their approaches to life (more precisely, not even their own approach, but the one kindly given to them by Western or Eastern advisers), including in the migration sphere. ”
” He noted that in total in 2022, 4,729 reports of crimes committed by foreign citizens were received, in which 4,231 criminal cases were initiated. ” This is almost three times more than in 2021 … Extremist sentiments are spreading among illegal migrants ,” the chairman of the TFR added.
Cases of resistance to the demands of law enforcement officials and attacks on law enforcement officers have also become more frequent. According to Bastrykin, the number of criminal cases on crimes against sexual inviolability has also increased significantly. ”
” ” With the participation of migrants, mass fights often occur, causing a wide response. Most of these criminal acts are committed by visitors from the Central Asian countries of the CIS. Just last week, the organizer of such mass fights and five of their participants were detained in the capital. Natives of Central Asia attacked people, beat them, wanting to oppose themselves to others. All this was recorded on video and published on social networks , “said the head of the TFR. He noted that elderly and defenseless citizens often become victims of migrants. ”
https://katyusha.org/obshhee-delo/bastryikin-zabil-v-nabat-kolichestvo-tyazhkix-prestuplenij-migrantov-vyiroslo-v-tri-raza.html

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Apr 15 2023 1:40 utc | 74

@Deplorable Commissar 71:
The Z hedgehog site also regularly runs articles claiming Russian oil exports are collapsing, so believe anything at all it says at your own risk.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 15 2023 2:06 utc | 76

From Bernhard’s previous article on the leaks:

How was this miracle achieved? Hypnotism? Holding his family at gunpoint? And then, after making him post the photos online, these mialracle workers waited for a couple of months for the leak to go viral?
All right then.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 15 2023 2:39 utc | 78

The Reading Junkie was a US military intelligence officer and he totally disagrees with your assertion that a 21 year old airman couldn’t have access to the documents:
Link not given because this site makes RJ linked comments vanish. But you can check for yourselves.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 15 2023 2:58 utc | 80

@ William Gruff | Apr 14 2023 21:45 utc | 54
good analogy and post.. thanks..

Posted by: james | Apr 15 2023 3:59 utc | 82

” “How such a poor country (Poland) can sustain such extravagance is unclear………. ”
The E.U. and the US have been pumping money and social conditioning into Poland for over thirty years now. Poland was being setup for its part in the ” performance “.

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Apr 15 2023 4:07 utc | 84

Ya gotta wonder, in the possible/probable framing of the poor leaking kid, if the FBI don’t have some kind of leverage over him — eg, he was a kiddie porn downloader. Ie, you play along with our Leaks Op and well ignore your very naughty stuff.

Posted by: The Dolphin | Apr 15 2023 5:39 utc | 86

📵🇺🇦🇷🇺 About masking the direction of the main attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – analysis of Rybar
Ukrainian units are intensively preparing for the spring-summer campaign. Along the front line there is a concentration of personnel and equipment, and in warehouses – the accumulation of stocks of ammunition.
The enemy intends to attack on a broad front and use the length of the front line as an advantage. His calculation is based on the fact that the Russian army will not be able to defend the entire line of contact in the event of strikes in several sectors.
Therefore, in order to create surprise, Ukrainian formations are trying to hide the direction of the main attack. The main task is to mislead the Russian troops about the state, number and plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Along the front, the enemy sets up false firing positions, installs inflatable or wooden dummies, and creates sources of radio emission, with the help of which an active object is simulated.
🔻 What is the essence of these events?
The main part in the process is taken by specialists from the 83 center of information and psychological operations, along with volunteer organizations, such as Yuzhnenskoe OTG from Odessa .
They buy working and non-working mobile phones, and then send them to the electronic warfare units for re-flashing. For example, in the south of Ukraine , the 306th EW battalion in Chornomorsky is engaged in this particular task.
After that, all mobile phones are taken to a certain area near the front line and left either in separate tents in the forest or in the field, or at civilian infrastructure facilities (schools, camp sites, hospitals) in settlements.
Additionally, heat guns and generators are installed at false positions, which provide a thermal trace in the infrared spectrum and noise to simulate physical signs of the presence of APU formations.
❗️At the same time, the same 83rd center provides information support for the alleged transfer of reinforcements to the font, transmitting fake data under the guise of a verified one from a “source who saw everything with his own eyes” . And in the VHF band, the radio game is activated.
🔻 How should this confuse the Russian command?
In such false positions, the enemy creates the appearance of activity. He leaves only a few people there, and sets up mannequins at the rest of the points. They are also purchased with the funds of volunteer organizations obtained through collections in social networks and instant messengers.
Electronic intelligence units or UAV operators of the RF Armed Forces mark the functioning of a particular object by technical means. A blow is struck at the pseudo-position, and reinforcements are transferred to the site to strengthen the lines.
Meanwhile, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, meanwhile, are concentrating forces in a completely different direction and creating a shock backbone for the offensive.
🔻 How to determine the false activity of the enemy?
To some extent, sending UAVs or advanced reconnaissance teams for direct observation can help. However, in conditions of poor visibility, it is very problematic to determine the accumulation of manpower and equipment. Satellite reconnaissance in this particular case is practically useless.
A comprehensive analysis of the situation in the area should be carried out on the basis of combined reconnaissance, including drones, advanced reconnaissance groups, maneuverable REM units and a satellite constellation.
It is necessary to equip advanced units with reconnaissance equipment. The command staff must adequately respond to an unexpected burst of enemy activity and make a balanced and thoughtful decision.
The concentration of resources or the demonstrative accumulation of forces in one area does not mean that the strike will be there. As a rule, such actions have the opposite effect. Therefore, an attack should be expected somewhere else, in addition to the visually visible one.

https://t.me/sitreports/7203

Posted by: Down South | Apr 15 2023 5:55 utc | 88

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦✈️ About the Runway on the #Dnepropetrovsk Motorway⚡️
The other day footage of a MiG-29 fighter jet of the Ukrainian air force taking off from the #Dnepropetrovsk motorway appeared in the Ukrainian segment of the Internet.
🔹Why from the Highway?
With such measures, the command of the AFU seeks to additionally secure its aircraft from strikes on the basing sites. This is not new to the enemy. On the first day of the SMO, a few hours before the Russian massive attack began, the planes left for alternate airfields. As a result, most of the launches fell “in milk”.
And since late last year, AFU engineering units, together with private construction companies, began conducting reconnaissance for the deployment of field airfields for tactical aviation.
🔹Where are these Objects located?
One of the improvised airfields the enemy is setting up on the E105 Motorway from #Dnepropetrovsk to #Kharkov. Construction work has begun on a 16km stretch of the highway to convert the road into a runway.
Coordinates:
➖ Start of runway – 48.6411869, 35.1683306
➖ End of runway – 48.7316392, 35.2532717
Fences and lawns were removed from the median strip along the runway. A solid roadway was laid in their place, and taxiways, aircraft parking areas and exits to them with reinforced concrete slabs PAG-18 were installed parallel to the runway.
Coordinates:
➖ Parking lot No.1 – 48.6728650, 35.2060411
➖ Parking lot No.2 – 48.7227464, 35.2513517
📌 The Ukrainian Air Force’s tactic of changing locations has shown to be effective in the past. In particular, from all Russian strikes on airfields the AFU have lost only a few aircraft.
The construction of makeshift runways makes it difficult to find new aircraft staging areas by satellite. However, not every road in eastern #Ukraine will be suitable for a network of such bases, which narrows the area of reconnaissance down to a few major motorways.

https://t.me/sitreports/7176

Posted by: Down South | Apr 15 2023 6:05 utc | 90

The war will end when the glorious million man Ukrainian army – having lost only one man to a bad cold – storms into Moscow behind a hail of Himars rockets. The Russian army has already collapsed having lost the entire male population and is reduced to fighting with gardening tools. The oppressed Russian people will rise up in a glorious pro-Ukraine colour revolution, overthrowing the evil Putinist regime – and will clamour for Victoria Nuland to be their new Dear Leader.

Posted by: marcjf | Apr 15 2023 6:53 utc | 92

” “How such a poor country (Poland) can sustain such extravagance is unclear………. ”
The E.U. and the US have been pumping money and social conditioning into Poland for over thirty years now. Poland was being setup for its part in the ” performance “.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Apr 15 2023 4:07 utc | 82
At last someone has framed succinctly the Reality that operates around Poland.
Now does the average Pole realize this ? I have no doubt, NO.
Comments pushing the narrative that Poland wants to become an empire are full of it. I’d suggest they read closely history of this region. Especially this part,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia_and_Eastern_Galicia
The estimates of butchered people we can safely assume are down sized.

Posted by: Tom_12 | Apr 15 2023 7:11 utc | 94

Personally I doubt Germany will exist within its current borders by 2030
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 14 2023 15:20 utc | 4
—
FM Baerbock is hard at work to make it so. Her performance in China is stunning.

Posted by: too scents | Apr 15 2023 8:02 utc | 96

In case no one’s paying attention to the other leak thread, I posted a new find of Melaleuca’s on my Google Drive and sent it to Larry Johnson who hadn’t seen that other tranche I uploaded. 47 document pics out of 48 mentioned by NYT.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 15 2023 9:08 utc | 98

Posted by: Milites | Apr 14 2023 19:30 utc | 38
Posted by: Tuna | Apr 14 2023 20:09 utc | 44
Posted by: Dan Farrand | Apr 14 2023 22:02 utc | 56
Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 14 2023 23:06 utc | 65
Interesting submarine info, much obliged to you all.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 14 2023 20:13 utc | 45
I think the 80k from a few days ago was an estimate of the UA reserves that could plausibly be committed to Bakhmut at that time, this 200k appears to be an estimate of the total UA forces available for a counteroffensive.
It seemed notable that he is claiming (perhaps deceptively) that UA does have sizeable counteroffensive potential in both men and materiel and is also restating that Bakhmut itself is mostly about encouraging UA to commit forces where they can be more conveniently destroyed.
Posted by: Jonathan | Apr 14 2023 20:14 utc | 46
Some good points there, thank you.
Posted by: Seer | Apr 14 2023 20:56 utc | 50
Maybe. There’s a lot of overreach and hype in newer “AI” systems but submarine sensor tech is way more conservative. The claim that it might be something muricans can still do well is not one I’d discount on the basis of a few geeky pratfalls from what amounts to a completely different development culture.
Posted by: HH | Apr 14 2023 21:01 utc | 51
These glide bombs work best when there is no AD and no satellite jamming. Otherwise they might fail just as much as JDAMs and the delivery aircraft could be at risk. Make hay while the sun shines.
Posted by: Down South | Apr 15 2023 5:55 utc | 86
Posted by: Down South | Apr 15 2023 5:57 utc | 87
Posted by: Down South | Apr 15 2023 6:05 utc | 88
Great info! Long range, essentially permanent, drone surveillance and long range rocket artillery to bring everything under fire control, a kind of remote occupation.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 15 2023 7:55 utc | 93
Ukrainian civilians are too vulnerable for the front line but that’s not stopping them being conscripted to it. If this Avenger system is better than nothing it’ll be used regardless. Heck, they’ll be sent just to be disposed of and any story will be invented to justify it =)

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 15 2023 9:53 utc | 100