Ukraine Open Thread 2023-87 – Moon of Alabama

April 11, 2023

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-87

After a long and somewhat lazy phase, which nevertheless killed a lot of Ukrainian troops, someone seems to have given an order to hurry up with taking Bakhmut.

Today's Ru MoD clobber report on Bakhmut / Artyomovsk:

In Donetsk direction, the main forces of the Russian troops were concentrated near the city of Artyomovsk. The Wagner assault groups continued fighting to seize blocks in the central part of Artyomovsk and push the enemy to the western outskirts of the settlement. On the flanks, the assault teams are supported by the Airborne Troops.

Missile Troops and Artillery of the Yug Group of Forces and Operational-Tactical Aviation provide air and fire support to the offensive. Over the past 24 hours, aircraft flew 11 sorties close to Artyomovsk and the Missile Troops and Artillery carried out 48 firing missions for this purpose. The enemy's losses amounted to over 450 Ukrainian troops and mercenaries, three tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles, six armoured fighting vehicles, D-20 and a MSTA-B howitzers, as well as two U.S.-made AN/TPQ-50 radar stations over the past day in this direction.

This thread is only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b on April 11, 2023 at 14:37 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Peter AU1 #196

What is holding up the Americans is the many western wheeled vehicles sent are utterly useless in Ukraine spring time. They need summer hard ground. In the meantime, other events are occurring that may put and end to the vaunted offensive, but as I wrote and you noted, Rus mod is not taking it lightly.

Thank you for reminding me of the odd ocasion when I have had contact with such soil.
Clearly the Americans have never bush bashed around the black soil country north of Roma. Even the cicadas sing about the agony of their existence in those conditions. They never stop singing about agony ;))

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 12 2023 9:40 utc | 201

This is about the geopolitical destruction if not the physical destruction of the US.
Have you no understanding of the death destruction and poverty the US has visited on the world? Do you think that by sitting there wringing your hands that the US will just say, oh sorry, and then be a nice little boy.
For Russia, the US wants to destroy them as a state, as a culture, as a civilization. People about, some simply don’t care and think the anglo world as ws we know it will go on indefinably, others are just pathetic hand wringers like you which is why the US has been able to cause the amount of death and destruction it has.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 12 2023 9:45 utc | 202

>>> Russia isn’t likely to stop with Donbass. On the day that SMO began, the wicked-opedea showed that half of Ukraine spoke Russian as their first language. They “identify” as Russians. Russia borders on much of Northern Ukraine. They won’t stop until they have everything East of the River. They will also take Odessa and everything with access to the Black Sea.
I expect that Russia will require as a part of any peace negotiation that every region of Ukraine hold a referendum allowing them their UN charter Right to Self-determination.
Posted by: barstool | Apr 11 2023 16:54 utc | 24 <<< Yeah, I'm hoping, thinking, that Putin's plans for the new regime in Kiev is brought about by a major citizenry waking up. Once the fighting stops, and the truth about Zelensky's cock ups come out, I think/hope the Ukies will see wiser allegience with Russia. Certainly a quicker road back to normality. And, the best thing for Ukraine will be a non-Russophobic President. Putin will then help restoration rather than just fence the fuckers out. A national referendum will clearly show the West the new, non-tamper-Ukraine democracy.

Posted by: The Dolphin | Apr 12 2023 9:47 utc | 203

uncle tungsten | Apr 12 2023 9:40 utc | 200
The darling downs or the downs country around the Richmond Julia creek area. I spent a few of my younger years there. A photo that sticks in my mind is that of a nato amphibious beach landing with wheeled vehicles. Idiots were all bogged in the dry loose beach sand.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 12 2023 9:56 utc | 204

Just wondering if the imminent collapse of the UA ADS is going to allow a previously unplayed card to be played by Russia; a card that potentially could be the ace in the hole.
https://russianmilitaryanalysis.wordpress.com/2021/09/12/zapad-2021-day-1-september-10/
There are two airports close to two of the bridges over the Dnieper, Dnipro and Cherkassy, if both or either were taken by a night time air assault I’m wondering if a Bukrin-style drop II is on the cards.

Posted by: Milites | Apr 12 2023 10:03 utc | 205

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 12 2023 9:45 utc | 201
That post should have been addressed to the hand wringer earlier in the thread but forgot it.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 12 2023 10:03 utc | 206

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 12 2023 9:26 utc | 196
Even a successful counter-drone effort that only took out RF target spotting drones would leave their guns and rocket crews blind. Anything line-of-signs could still operate but against an adversary whose drone surveillance was still working they’d be sitting ducks for enemy artillery and attack drones. That’s without factoring in attacks on command posts and supply depots.
Agreed, a headline-generating punch through into Donbas / Crimea is obviously desired but the longer they wait the more their stocks of men & materiel get worn down.
Yes, there’s no armour against a top hit from a guided artillery shell, let alone a hit from 200…300mm rocket artillery =)
Considering that reducing the time between drone surveillance spotting a tank, guided artillery firing and laser illumination of the target is just a matter of digital comms and software updates, I think that tells a story of the risk that all conspicuous battlefield assets will be facing in the near future.

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 12 2023 10:07 utc | 207

In 2024, Western loans to Ukraine will be significantly reduced. The Biden administration warned Zelensky about this. Thus, the US budget for 2024 includes only $6 billion to support Ukraine in 2024 (for comparison, in 2022 assistance from the States exceeded $44 billion).
And, given that the Ukrainian economy is actually completely based on financial assistance from international partners, this does not bode well for our country.
It is noteworthy that the West has already reacted indirectly to the likelihood of a decrease in cash flows to Kyiv by downgrading Ukraine’s ratings. For example, the World Bank changed the forecast for Ukraine’s GDP. Initially, the organization predicted the growth of Ukrainian GDP by 3.3% this year, but now by 0.5%. Ukraine’s economy is projected to grow by 0.5% this year after a staggering 29.2% drop in 2022.
At the same time, according to the World Bank, Ukraine’s economic activity is supported only by the opening of Black Sea ports and grain trade, as well as foreign loans. At the same time, the international agency S&P downgraded Ukraine’s credit rating from “CCC+” to “CCC” with a negative outlook. “We expect that it will be difficult for Ukraine to conduct exchange operations for its external commercial obligations, unless there is an unforeseen positive change in the situation,” experts emphasize, referring to “uncertainties regarding the development of the course of hostilities.”
By the way, Bloomberg has already noted that the new S&P assessment moves the Ukrainian economy to the same level as the Ethiopian one.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17258

Posted by: Down South | Apr 12 2023 10:11 utc | 208

I just took a look at ventusky and rain pours down in north east Ukraine. Not good for a military advance of any scale.
No big red arrows for a while unless the south East is fine and sunny for another fortnight.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 12 2023 10:32 utc | 209

anon2020 | Apr 12 2023 10:07 utc | 206
A good point on the counter drone warfare. The Russian Orlan fixed wing is a military drone so I assume its electronics where designed to operate in EW conditions. From what I can make out the quadcopters are civilian spec rather than mil spec, but I have read that in the Donbass they have come up with some mods that makes the commercial quadcopters more resistant.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 12 2023 10:32 utc | 210

@ Down South | Apr 12 2023 10:11 utc | 207
Ukraine’s debt is a poisoned chalice for any follow-on government or neighbor with territorial ambitions. Their debt is a defensive structure. Would territories Ukraine cedes in exchange for NATO involvement be liable for the preceding debts?
Could the banking system withstand discharging Ukraine’s onerous debts? The answer to that question is forcing the fight.

Posted by: too scents | Apr 12 2023 10:40 utc | 211

The Judge makes the point that “American boys are shooting at Russian boys without any Congressional approval” whatsoever which has the potential to lead to disaster.
So shooting at Russians is not the problem, the problem is that it is done without “congressional approval”? I can’t say I am impressed by the ethics or even logic of this “judge”. US Americans should start to take in the fact that “Congress” or whatever does not extend to other countries. This is just more empire stuff.
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 12 2023 5:26 utc | 165
It means that Congress has not declared war. Irrational hate of anyone is ill advised but your comment shows severe ignorance and IRRATIONAL hate of anything involving the United States.
What Congress said was that was happening had no legal validity.
Take it for what it’s worth.

Posted by: T.D. | Apr 12 2023 10:40 utc | 212

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 12 2023 9:26 utc | 196
“If I was an American, I would be looking at taking out the guns with the flying bombs/drones then send the armour in.”
Unfortunately the flying bombs and drones are relatively easily shot down by the layered AD of the Russians. So, touche.
This is the problem for the US: they’ve ignored various technological elements of war (artillery and air defense), while over-emphasizing others (air and naval power, which as Martyanov points out is the perogative of an “expeditonary force” rather than a continental land force), whereas the Russians haven’t – and the Russians have successfully combined all these elements – which is what “combined arms” means.
It will take years, if not decades, for the West to catch up to where the Russians are now in that area – and longer to catch up to Russian mastery of military operational art. Only the Germans might be able to help – if they still had any of the old German masters of that still available, which it seems they don’t.
The US has only one advantage: a really good and large submarine force. In every other respect, they are behind Russia in technology and knowledge and experience in use of that technology. They’re at least five years away from hypersonic technology deployment, probably the same in air defense technology deployment, and a decade away from catching up in industrial weapons production, even if they can retool the economy to achieve it, which is problematic.
In short, the US has lost the race. Only the fact that they could possibly re-enter the race given the wherewithal and motivation gives the US any chance at all. But that depends precisely on retooling the public, the economy and the government appropriately.
And as I keep saying, “That Ain’t Gonna Happen.” Because of the exact nature of that public, economy and government as it is now and will continue to be for the foreseeable future.
So everyone just grab your popcorn and watch Russia and China and the other major nations of the RoW take the collective West down as well as its own self-inflicted collapse.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 12 2023 10:53 utc | 213

Posted by: natokraine | Apr 12 2023 11:01 utc | 214

‘When all else is failing, roll out the ‘the evil enemy beasts are beheading people’ trope.’ – Sun Tzu

Posted by: DDK | Apr 12 2023 11:05 utc | 215

@ Chris, §120:
If Poland, Rumania, etc., get Galicia, Bessarabia, etc., and Russia gets the Ukraine, who is Blackrock going to sue for the debt and who is going to enforce their judgement?
Remember, if Poland does get Galicia, etc., etc., it would be on condition they´re demilitarized and NATO is defunct.

Posted by: John Marks | Apr 12 2023 11:05 utc | 216

Posted by: too scents | Apr 12 2023 10:40 utc | 210
The debt Ukraine has incurred from EU, US and IMF will never be paid out of Ukrainian taxpayers or economy. The only way to pay it is through blood, and minerals. The most obvious way that it was intended to be paid are the mineral resources, and through Ukrainian blood.
As far as it goes to minerals, here is a map.
You can see basically almost all of the valuable stuff is south, and east of Kiev, near Cherkassy, Kirovograd, but west of Dnieper (uranium, thorium, gold, titanium, rare earth elements, scandium). Lvov region has some lead, molybdenium, zinc maybe, apatite, muscovite, graphite etc. But simply denying EU/US of the stuff south and east of Kiev will be akin to rubbing salt on the wounds of the west in terms of what they invested in this campaign. They will have to get all that stuff from the non-west, a.k.a BRICS, SCO, ASEAN and pay for them in non-western gold backed currencies.
All these minerals will also be very important for powering and building space travel and infrastructure!

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 12 2023 11:15 utc | 217

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 12 2023 2:21 utc | 144
RLS
Try cod liver oil – intermittent cure like one month out of four.
Exercise at bed time: lie on the side take and hold your foot to your buttock with your same side hand, then opposite side hand. Hold for 2 minutes each. Do both sides, enjoy.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Apr 12 2023 11:15 utc | 218

Posted by: DakotaRog | Apr 11 2023 15:33 utc | 7
«A question for the barflies that keep a better track of this stuff. Is the Russian ruble still backed by a fraction of gold»
Currencies are not backed by “gold” or “the full faith” etc., but by what you can buy with them locally, and internationally by the exports you can buy with them. For several years after WW2 the USA dollar was a strong currency because most countries had devastated industries, except the USA, and to buy anything from the USA you needed dollars.
The ruble is backed by the RF being a large exporter of fuels and cereals, and other stuff, that a lot of people (except the EU) want to buy. The USA dollar is also a fairly strong currency because a lot of people want to buy valuable assets in the USA (not just government bonds, but stock shares, buildings, railways, …) and the USA is also an exporter of fuels and cereals.
The japanese yen and the german mark became stronger and stronger currencies after several year beyond WW2 because lots of people wanted to buy machines from Germany or consumer goods from Japan (and cars from both) and needed marks and yen to pay for them.
To some extent convertibility to gold helps because there is some demand from gold hoarders (in India mostly) and gold can be used to buy other currencies, but what really drives a currency is the availability of desirable stuff that can be bought only in that currency.

Posted by: Blissex | Apr 12 2023 11:16 utc | 219

@ the pessimist 146
You mention the creation of a market for spying, which echoes Craig Murray’s point to the JCHR about US demanding info from torture creating a demand for lies that fitted the US narrative.
In fact the purpose of torture rendition was never thecgathering of intelligence. It was to de- humanise a generation of Muslims in order to create violent jihadist proxies.
I cannot not believe that thecsame process of using chemicals has not been used in the shaping of Ukrainuan Nazism, but we are only one year into the SMO, and that is early stages for truth to become public.
But I’m interested in the word zitters, which I take to mean zionists. It means that leaks came from the opponents of Blinken and Nuland and the leaks cannot therefore be for the purpose of upping the ante funding against Russia.
The idea of the West using Dr Mengeles psychological drugs to mutate humanity is still so unthinkable that nobody will respond to it. We are Nazis is definitely a totem that cannot be mentioned . Zitters expresses the oozing pus of an enflamed boil. So whoever wrote it knows something about the zionists which is pretty disgusting.
For that reason my guess is that the leaker is a Snowden and that he/ she knows how the Ukrainian Conscripts are being chemically mutated by drugs. Whoever leaked it was asking for death.

Posted by: Giyane | Apr 12 2023 11:22 utc | 220

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 12 2023 9:33 utc | 197
An article pre-SMO pretty much predicting the early stages of the operation, vis drone involvement.
https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JEMEAA/Display/Article/2329510/the-revolution-in-drone-warfare-the-lessons-from-the-idlib-de-escalation-zone/
Historical context and drone use during the SMO and some beyond the horizon extrapolation.
https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JEMEAA/Display/Article/2329510/the-revolution-in-drone-warfare-the-lessons-from-the-idlib-de-escalation-zone/
Like any new technology the information on its impact and likely employment is out there, the important step is accurate synthesis.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 12 2023 9:26 utc | 196
True, I’ve posted about the shortening window of opportunity, that the attack/counter cycle offers and how it favours the defender, before. The big fear, during the Cold-War, was that it would not allow time for any significant changes, so game-changing technologies would decide the conventional conflict. Another probable reason the Russians eschewed big arrow moves for anything, but the initial stages of the SMO.

Posted by: Milites | Apr 12 2023 11:32 utc | 221

@Peter #206
They still have sat gps and counter battery radar, just taking out the drones wont cripple them.

Posted by: OohCanada | Apr 12 2023 11:36 utc | 222

What happened to DonbassDevushka? Deleted telegram, private twitter, were they attacked or something or just taking break?

Posted by: Mr V | Apr 12 2023 11:43 utc | 223

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 12 2023 9:16 utc | 195 “Poland already had its army (simulated fully equipped with F-35’s, Abrams tanks, etc.) annihilated in five days by the Russians in a war game, with another 200-300.000 Polish troops it should expand that to maybe…ten days? LOL”
Is this the same wargame that had Russia take Kyiv in 3 days?
Also saw this: https://www.donga.com/news/Politics/article/all/20230412/118792328/1?ref=main
US administration of Joe Biden signed a contract with the Korean government and defense industry last month to receive 500,000 Korean-made 155mm shells in the form of a loan.

Posted by: Response2 | Apr 12 2023 11:48 utc | 224

Posted by: Response2 | Apr 12 2023 11:48 utc | 223
It just goes to show that US of 2023 is a midget of US 1941 in terms of manufacturing base. When it comes to situation in Ukraine, there is no longer a bottle neck of shells but there is a bottleneck in Nato howitzers, they all seem to get blown up with Lancets or counter artillery.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 12 2023 11:52 utc | 225

@T.D. | Apr 12 2023 10:40 utc | 211
Nothing irrational, you just react to the truth.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 12 2023 11:59 utc | 226

I think Ukraine still has an insane chance at “victory”. They may have 250K 18 year olds coming up so add on whatever’s left of the army and Russia needs to kill half a million.
But after that come pensioners and 16 yr olds and women – forced by Azov into battle. MSN wrote about minimal resistance to conscription (in my view) so what stops eternal war? There will never be an end to small arms ammo so where’s the end? Russia may need huge mined areas as a border in a vast no mans land. They need to prevent a Vietnam situation.

Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 12 2023 12:05 utc | 227

It means that Congress has not declared war. Irrational hate of anyone is ill advised but your comment shows severe ignorance and IRRATIONAL hate of anything involving the United States.
That judge is naive. The last time Congress declared war was 1942. They use weasle terms: war powers authorization, for example, to mostly wash their hands and pass the onus on to the president.

Posted by: Milton | Apr 12 2023 12:11 utc | 228

⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation
(12 April 2023)
Part I (see Part II (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/6884))
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
💥 In Kupyansk direction, aviation and artillery of the Zapad Group of Forces inflicted a fire damage on the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) close to Pershotravnevoye and Berestovoye (Kharkov region), and Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People’s Republic).
◽️ In addition, actions of three sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were thwarted near Sinkovka and Kislovka (Kharkov region).
💥 The enemy’s losses in this direction during the day amounted to 30 Ukrainian troops, two motor vehicles, and Polish-made Krab and U.S.-made Paladin self-propelled artillery systems.
◽ In Krasny Liman direction, ground-attack aircraft, Army Aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems of the Tsentr Group of Forces engaged the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Nevskoye, Chervonaya Dibrova, Chervonopopovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), and Grigorovka and Terny (Donetsk People’s Republic). More than 80 Ukrainian troops, four armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, and one D-20 howitzer have been neutralised in this direction during the day.
◽️ In Donetsk direction close to Artyomovsk, the Wargner assault detachments took control over three urban quarters. Russia’s Airborne Troops immobilised the enemy’s actions on the flanks of the assault detachments.
💥 Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Yug Group of Forces engaged the reinforcement units of the enemy who attempted to enter Artyomovsk from Chasov Yar and Bogdanovka, as wll as the units of the 28th Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Konstantinovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
📊 Over the past 24 hours, aircraft flew 8 sorties, and the Group’s Missile Troops and Artillery carried out 52 firing missions in this area.
💥 The enemy losses amounted to over 245 Ukrainian military, one tank, one APC, two armoured combat vehicles, three pick-up trucks, eight motor vehicles, one Msta-B howitzer, two D-20 howitzers, and three Grad MLRS launchers.
🔹 @mod_russia_en
⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation
(12 April 2023)
Part II (see Part I (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/6883))
◽️ In South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, aviation and artillery of the Vostok Group of Forces inflicted a fire damage on AFU units close Ugledar (Donetsk People’s Republic), and Gulyai Pole and Orekhov (Zaporozhye region).
◽️ Moreover, an ammunition depot of the 65th Mechanised Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was destroyed close to Orekhov (Zaporozhye region).
💥 Two sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been disabled close to Pavlovka and Novosyolka (Donetsk People’s Republic). Up to 180 Ukrainian servicemen, 11 motor vehicles, and one D-30 howitzer have been neutralised in these areas during the day.
◽️ In Kherson direction, up to 50 Ukrainian troops, three armoured fighting vehicles, and six motor vehicles have been destroyed. A military equipment depot of the 121st Territorial Defence Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been obliterated close to Otradokamenka (Kherson region).
💥 Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised 94 AFU artillery units at their firing positions, enemy’s manpower and hardware in 117 areas during the day.
✈️ Fighter aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces has shot down one Su-24 aircraft of Ukrainian Air Force near Krasny Liman (Donetsk People’s Republic).
💥 Russian air defence forces have intercepted two HIMARS MLRS shells during the day.
◽️ Moreover, five Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down close to Novokrasnyanka, Naugolnoye, Kremennaya, Chervonopopovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), and Yelenovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
📊 In total, 407 airplanes and 228 helicopters, 3,741 unmanned aerial vehicles, 415 air defence missile systems, 8,647 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,082 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 4,570 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 9,483 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
@mod_russia_en

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 12 2023 12:14 utc | 229

Posted by: Mr V | Apr 12 2023 11:43 utc | 222
Nothing wrong AFAICT.. DonbassDevushka telegram working just fine here.

Posted by: dask | Apr 12 2023 12:16 utc | 230

By ‘fine’ you mean it shows it was created 2 days ago and the only content is a single dog video? Or do I have wrong address?

Posted by: Mr V | Apr 12 2023 12:19 utc | 231

an article from the WSJ on Russian economy
co-writtern by Evan Gershkovich on March 28th (the only reason I post it here):
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-economy-is-starting-to-come-undone-431a2878
A different and more knowing assessment by James K. Galbraith:
“The Effect of Sanctions on Russia: A Skeptical View”
https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/the-effect-of-sanctions-on-russia-a-skeptical-view

Posted by: AG | Apr 12 2023 12:23 utc | 232

@Mr V | Apr 12 2023 11:43 utc | 222

What happened to DonbassDevushka? Deleted telegram, private twitter, were they attacked or something or just taking break?

Donbass Devushka is on Telegram, Twitter and YouTube. Are you trying to spread a rumor?

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 12 2023 12:23 utc | 233

@clueless 232 – how about you STFU this nonsense and actually take a look? What rumor? Twitter is private, telegram deleted, unless DD moved to a new one while I wasn’t looking…

Posted by: Mr V | Apr 12 2023 12:27 utc | 234

[218]
The japanese yen and the german mark became stronger and stronger currencies after several year beyond WW2 because lots of people wanted to buy machines from Germany or consumer goods from Japan (and cars from both) and needed marks and yen to pay for them.
Sounds lovely theory but not historical fact. German D-Mark was not even convertible until 1957 and then rigged at a low rate to guarantee trade surpluses as pledged by UK and US at London Agreement 1953. Japanese Yen not really convertible before 1964
Japan and Germany enjoyed undervalued exchange rates and priced their exports in US dollars while maintaining a deflationary domestic monetary policy and import substitution.
US forced Germany to revalue 1969 then exited partial Gold Standard which led Germany to develop the Werner Plan 1970 for a Single European Currency to stabilise their captive markets in EEC
https://www.cvce.eu/en/education/unit-content/-/unit/02bb76df-d066-4c08-a58a-d4686a3e68ff/680c7ff8-83a2-4c70-8b43-53741099e5e3
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/wp97111.pdf
https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap15h.pdf

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 12 2023 12:28 utc | 235

Would territories Ukraine cedes in exchange for NATO involvement be liable for the preceding debt
1) A very general rule of thumb is when a country breaks up, national debt is allocated by GDP of the successor states. If a successor state GDP was 25% of of the previous state, then successor state gets saddled with 25% of the national debt. Of course, there is a yuge amount of negotiation.
2) Rump Ukraine forced to repay foreign debt ? If rump Ukraine remains within the axis of NATO, then yes it’s remaining wealth will be plundered to repay foreign debt. However, if Rump Ukraine becomes part of the Eurasian economic sphere, then foreign debt will need to be written off by English and US bankers. a very good method of gauging what hard nosed bankers think the outcome will be is to track the value of Ukrainian Gov‘t debt traded

Posted by: Exile | Apr 12 2023 12:30 utc | 236

@Mr V | Apr 12 2023 12:27 utc | 233

@clueless 232 – how about you STFU this nonsense and actually take a look? What rumor? Twitter is private, telegram deleted, unless DD moved to a new one while I wasn’t looking…

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/54513

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 12 2023 12:40 utc | 237

@ spare_truth, §130:
Best decision Japan could ever make.
Settle with China (let them have Diaoyu – to Taiwan!) and friends with Russia – maybe even Kurils back (Kunashir, Iturup & Urup) in exchange for kicking Americans out of Ryukyus.
Full trade & friendship with Russia (maybe even alliance?) in exchange for ready trade in oil/gas from Sakhalin and Japanese investment in Russian Far East – e.g. Bullet train Yamsk-Magadan-Okhotsk-Ayan-Tyr-Lazarev-Nogliki. Icebreakers and thorium mini power stations at Yamsk, Ayan, Lazarev and another bullet train Severobaikalsk-Aldan-Ayan for starters. And the Russian Far East will take off and rival NE USA/Canada.

Posted by: John Marks | Apr 12 2023 12:41 utc | 238

Posted by: Mr V | Apr 12 2023 12:27 utc | 233
No need to be snarky. Twitter is indeed private, but youtube and telegram are working just fine. Tele is same as it has been for months and months, tens of thousands of subs, pictures, and videos.

Posted by: dask | Apr 12 2023 12:44 utc | 239

Posted by: Organic | Apr 12 2023 1:59 utc | 141
Organic, you’re full of shit, comment when you have a clue.

Posted by: Peter Williams | Apr 12 2023 12:56 utc | 240

Um, no, DD telegram is not fine. This was their older, more frequently updated one, since last week it’s gone with all content deleted. I know because I linked it to friends and tested stuff going back a year: https://t.me/s/DonbassDevushka
Guess they moved to DDgeo then, still wonder what happened. Was it hacked because avatar is changed too?

Posted by: Mr V | Apr 12 2023 12:58 utc | 241

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 12 2023 2:21 utc | 144
Have you tried cannabis? Also, RLS can be a side effect of other medications, so you might want to try abstaining from one at a time to see if the problem improves.

Posted by: farm ecologist | Apr 12 2023 12:59 utc | 242

@158, drinks crow, Look up grizzlies in Siberia, which I assume is still Russia. Also short distance is relative. They can run for several miles if needed. So bollocks right back at you. Cheers.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Apr 12 2023 13:09 utc | 243

@Mr V | Apr 12 2023 12:58 utc | 240
Apologies accepted

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 12 2023 13:09 utc | 244

DD is not there for me, either the original or the DDGeo one. Back to 288 subscribers as well. But I only browse using the “context” option, not a Telegraph user.
Using
https://t.me/s/llordofwar
which is pretty good

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Apr 12 2023 13:16 utc | 245

Milites | Apr 12 2023 11:32 utc | 220
Interesting links. The first one however appears a bit slanted. Turkeys surprise attack on the Syrian forces. Missing is the stated goals on Russia’s entry into Syria. They were there to kill terrorists without starting new wars and I think that was a big factor to Russian non military response to the Turkish attack. (Russia could have easily sent up planes to destroy the Turk strike drones but did not)
Then I run onto this
“For instance, the Institute for the Study of War—a US-based a nonpartisan, nonprofit, public policy research organization…”
Russia adjusting to enemy technologies certainly played a part and the start of the piece came across as sound and factual but as I read down it seemed like it was departing from from reality and then I got to the quoted sentence.
If I remember correctly, Russia said the jihad drones used in the attacks on its base though cheep and flimsy had US mil spec electronics.
The Bayracter vs Pantsir. I remember a video of a Syrian Pantsir getting destroyed by an Israeli suicide drone. It had used up its missiles and waiting for a reload though it still had cannon ammo. The operators were out of the vehicle waiting when one spotted the drone and ran to the control cabin. The drone hit just after he got in. I remember looking Russian into Pantsir operation procedure at the time and they work in pairs with a reload vehicle. three vehicles in all. How correct that is I don’t know but it makes sense as one unit can provide air cover while the other is shut down for reloading.
There where also a number of Pantsirs destroyed in Libya by Bayracter drones but I suspect that was a result of lax military procedure rather than technology.
The second link is more interesting. Something that struck when looking through it was the comment on blue skies and drones. Slow flying fixed wing gets absolutely hammered in turbulence. Rotary wing with a much higher wing loading seems to cut through much of the turbulence.
Attack drone tech like the large American and Turkish ones are as we’ve seen in regard to the Turk drones, useless when they come up against Russian defenses.
I guess small drone tech is still in its infancy. Russia developing its drone to fly alongside a manned SU-57.. I think China is doing similar.
I guess the thing to look at is the communications link, the umbilical cord to unmanned machines.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 12 2023 13:20 utc | 246

Biden is in Ireland this week to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the good Friday agreement and to pretend he has irish ancestors, which should please the millions of irish-Americans.
The peace in the North of Ireland is unravelling thanks to the brits who have deliberately fucked it up in order to create problems for us politicians, the parliament of Northern Ireland hasn’t sat for years and brexit is now pushing loyalist paramilitaries to the limit.
Biden is not irish, he calls the irish stupid on TV. The irish people don’t want anything to do with him as he’s such a gombeen.
My point, the us/uk make a complete fuck of any country they get involved with, not just Ukraine. The blatant lies about Biden’s irishness and the celebration of a peace process that no longer works is waking up many to the fantasy world of our media. The time is coming, and very soon, when the western world citizens will tire of this bolox and change it. Have no fear of that.

Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Apr 12 2023 13:36 utc | 247

Posted by: leaf | Apr 11 2023 15:02 utc | 1
Would highly recommend Big Serge’s piece on the leaks and the coming “counter offensive”
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-leak-biopsy
—————————————————————————–
Only conclusion I can reach is that the Ukraine War is run out of DoS not DoD.
DoD responds to Blinken and DoS and takes no responsibility for the conduct of the war. ‘We gave you what you asked for.’

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Apr 12 2023 13:52 utc | 248

Rabbits have taken over the White House
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/60005

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 12 2023 13:52 utc | 249

“gombeen” – had to look it up:
“A gombeen man is a pejorative Hiberno-English term used in Ireland for a shady, small-time “wheeler-dealer” businessman or politician who is always looking to make a quick profit, often at someone else’s expense or through the acceptance of bribes. Its origin is the Irish word “gaimbín”, meaning monetary interest.[1] The term referred originally to a money-lender and became associated with those shopkeepers and merchants who exploited the starving during the Irish Famine by selling much-needed food and goods on credit at ruinous interest rates. ”

Posted by: the pessimist | Apr 12 2023 13:54 utc | 250

Intel Slava had a news: “Zelensky and his entourage embezzled $400 million from foreign aid to Ukraine to purchase fuel”. -Journalist Seymour Hersch
What, they’re gonna push the pedal to the medal for their getaway, they have to drag all the gold and silver bullion and archives out when the time comes? Helicopters? lol

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 12 2023 13:57 utc | 251

@144 Regarding your RLS symptoms
I’ve been using infrared light for a few weeks now, on me to save the few hair I have left on my head 🙂 and for my mum’s short term memory after her little strokes she had last year.
I just did a search on your condition and the first hit is a published scientific study that shows some cool results:
She had been afflicted with restless legs syndrome for over 30 years and tried many of the available pharmaceutical remedies without success. By week four she was completely symptom free. The symptoms slowly returned during week three post treatment.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2936319/
And here are my cheapo devices:
A folding pad
Number of LED lights: 172 red lights of 660nm and 43 infrared lights of 880nm
https://fr.aliexpress.com/item/1005004081345700.html
I try to use one device for 15mn twice a day on the head and for 15mn once a day on the belly.
A light hat
Number of LED lights: 60 red lights of 670nm and 60 infrared lights of 830nm
It can emit continuously or at 10Hz or at 40Hz
https://fr.aliexpress.com/item/1005004955064494.html
The Beurer IL 50
It emits from 500nm to 2500nm but primarily the 1250nm wavelength.
https://www.beurer.com/web/gb/products/wellbeing/light-therapy/infrared-lamps/il-50.php
A review by a happy user
https://www.youtube.com/live/hsF5hlF4wcU

Posted by: Stephane | Apr 12 2023 14:06 utc | 252

Since I see quite a few middle aged men around the bar, I feel like I should share my recent experience with my infrared light devices. Indeed, I suspect it’s the root cause of some return of the morning libido. Why do I suspect this ? Well, because the symptom was hard enough not to ignore 🙂 and because it has been reported elsewhere https://youtu.be/0zhE02ZL-4o?t=1455

Posted by: Stephane | Apr 12 2023 14:10 utc | 253

friends, Russia is a Grizzly Bear
Russia is the Grizzly of Kodiak Island. With our Washington neocons playing the role of Tim Treadwell.

Posted by: Fred777 | Apr 12 2023 14:18 utc | 254

Was just scrolling through the telegram channel that was just back a bit in the thread and I run onto a new Russian rotary wing suicide drone that I have not seen before.
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/60061

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 12 2023 14:20 utc | 255

It means that Congress has not declared war.
Posted by: T.D. | Apr 12 2023 10:40 utc | 211
According to US law it is Congress that declares war, not the President.
Last time the USA declared war was in 1942, against Romania. Formally speaking, all later USA wars violate international law.
Especially noteworthy was Yugoslavia, were not only the USA did not declare war, but also the President did not ask Congress an authorization to use military force.ACLU
The Yugoslav war marks the transition from a country that follows the law to a country that follows the leader.

Posted by: Passerby | Apr 12 2023 14:24 utc | 256

They still have sat gps and counter battery radar, just taking out the drones wont cripple them.
Posted by: OohCanada | Apr 12 2023 11:36 utc | 221
Satellite surveillance is a complement to drone surveillance, it is not a credible backup in the event of a successful enemy counter-drone campaign.
Counter battery systems can detect enemy artillery usage (perhaps passively) but they cannot defend or replace one’s own surveillance drones, the loss of which would indeed be crippling.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 12 2023 11:32 utc | 220
Thanks for the article link, very interesting, recommended to anyone else with an interest in the subject. You posted the same link twice, can you post a link to the second article?
My impression w.r.t. this mooted counteroffensive is that a successful counter drone campaign by UA, targeting RF fire control surveillance drones, coupled with saturation of finite AD resources. would be especially damaging. Not because it would be impossible to counter but because it would create a window of opportunity for UA to inflict political damaging military losses and threats to civilian populations.
I think that the quite realistic prospect of this strategy is not taken into account by others when they are trying to assess what UA-NATO can or might do next.

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 12 2023 14:27 utc | 257

2 min. drone video shows destruction everywhere

BIRDS EYE OF BAKHMUT as latest footage out of Artyomovsk-Bakhmut, Donetsk Region (ex-Ukraine) shows EERIE destruction that gives way to desolate desertedness of city inching closer towards complete Russian capture.
Subscribe @IntelRepublic

https://t.me/IntelRepublic/18235

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 12 2023 14:29 utc | 258

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 11 2023 17:24 utc | 32
I guess I should find out if the force disposition and losses docs were for US only or for sharing with vassals. If was for sharing with allies that would explain the propaganda numbers but if it was for US eyes only…
——————————————————–
To me this is a tell. The docs were created for that leak.
You are not going to convince me that DIA does not know what is going in Ukraine. What is filtered up the chain of command in DoS and what it lets out for (internal to the gov, ‘public consumption’ is all politics.
There is another government agency that worked the same way (having worked deep inside the beast), but the Senior Executive Service was the first layer not to be trusted.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Apr 12 2023 14:32 utc | 259

… I guess the thing to look at is the communications link, the umbilical cord to unmanned machines.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 12 2023 13:20 utc | 245
This is in the pipeline: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free-space_optical_communication
Line-of-sight, dependent on atmospheric conditions and, presumably, stray laser light will illuminate the receiving airframe, but immune to conventional EW detection / jamming.
This will probably be adopted as a stealthy addition to more robust radio links.

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 12 2023 14:43 utc | 260

It means that Congress has not declared war.
Posted by: T.D. | Apr 12 2023 10:40 utc | 211
>>According to US law it is Congress that declares war, not the President.
The problem isn’t the illegality of it, the problem is the lack of public support. If the public was behind it, a vote of support of some sort without a declaration of war would be good enough. A ‘resolution’ would do.

Posted by: Jmaas | Apr 12 2023 14:46 utc | 261

Re: Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 12 2023 6:00 utc | 169
Norwegian – I don’t doubt Russia will take Bakhmut – we had many many “EXPERTS” telling us Russia would be in Lvov by last August/September for goodness sake!
I don’t forget the knaves who made this proclamations – people like Gonzalo (NO idea what he’s talking about) Lira and around here the likes of RSH.
As I keep saying – Russia will never be in Lviv – why would they bother?

Posted by: Julian | Apr 12 2023 14:57 utc | 262

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 12 2023 14:27 utc | 256
Here it is
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the-changing-face-of-war-future-of

Posted by: Milites | Apr 12 2023 14:58 utc | 263

@ Posted by: Milites | Apr 12 2023 11:32 utc | 220
The issue of the drones impact on the conflict is very interesting – largely an inexpensive (expendable) commercial product, widely available in unlimited quantity – is my impression. In combination with high quality digital optics.
They remark that they have to work with the enemy watching over their shoulder.
I suspect they could just fly them at small groups with grenade – make it a one way trip.
I would want to carry a shotgun.
As I watch the videos of the carnage they wreak on the Ukrainians, I fear that it is much the same for the Russians. These things raise the cost of going slow.

Posted by: jared | Apr 12 2023 15:00 utc | 264

Posted by: Milites | Apr 12 2023 14:58 utc | 262
Oh, yes, I’ve seen that, but thank you anyway, a good recommendation, like a good point, bears repeating!

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 12 2023 15:07 utc | 265

Posted by: Julian | Apr 12 2023 14:57 utc | 261
Poland can have Lvov.

Posted by: Ant. | Apr 12 2023 15:19 utc | 266

Eoin Clancy | Apr 12 2023 13:36 utc | 246
“the us/uk make a complete fuck of any country they get involved with”
To be fair to us Brits, that does include our own country, the land of low wages, high house prices and closed factories.
Is the Republic much better? From across the water it looks as if they have swallowed exactly the same Kool-Aid as the UK has, although at least the most popular boy’s name isn’t yet the Prophet’s, as it is in England. But it strikes me they’ve sold their birthright to be a multinational tax haven. Joining NATO will just put the tin lid on things.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Apr 12 2023 15:22 utc | 267

@ Jmaas | Apr 12 2023 14:46 utc | 260
The problem isn’t the illegality of it, the problem is the lack of public support
Yes, but there is no method by for the public to have a role in treaties, sanctions and wars. Most of that is done autocratically by the president. There are opinions in the US that foreign affairs is solely the prerogative of the president under the Constitution, which is baloney. Executive privilege it’s called.
In fact the whole Russia sanctions thing that has ruined Europe was done by Executive Orders. Meanwhile the president brags that the US is a democracy, governance by the people, while he is taking all these autocratic actions.
A bit of trivia: On Obama’s election program back in 2008 there was a provision that all important Congressional (not presidential) actions would be publicized on the web for public reaction, but of course even in our highly digitized world that was never done. Involving the public is a non-starter.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 12 2023 15:30 utc | 268

The UK is on top of things, sanctioning the ladies (call me old-fashioned).
Today’s UK sanctions package hits a number of family members of oligarchs, who are used as proxies to hide their assets. This includes:
–Tatiana Evtushenkova, the acting director of firm Redline Capital which is owned by her father, Vladimir Evtushenkov
–Natalia Evtushenkov, wife of Vladimir Evtushenkov who holds board positions in banks and other companies in which her husband owns stakes including MTS Bank. She is also on the board of directors for Telecomms company Instacom International, which is owned by her husband
–Oksana Marchenko, the wife of key Putin ally Victor Medvedchuk, and owner of multiple luxury properties in Crimea . . . here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 12 2023 15:44 utc | 269

Re DonbssDevushka, I’m looking at it right now on my Telegram Desktop, freshly installed (I thought it was broken but it was popping up on my second monitor which was turned off – stupid software doesn’t adhere to proper protocol.)
Latest post is at 8:33 AM April 12th as follows:
“In Bakhmut, the Armed Forces of Ukraine hide tanks and other equipment in the courtyards of houses, but this does not save them
The footage was taken near a residential building number 37 on the street.”
Video included in the post.
I did try to see it on the desktop via Firefox and those links do go to a 299 member (now 300) channel which does open with a dog photo. Second dog photo saves “Leaks are in the Discord Server” the first photo has the Discord server address. Don’t know why, but that’s not the main DonbassDevushka channel as far as I can tell. So maybe the links are hijacked in the browser, but they work fine in Telegram Desktop. I use the Flatpak version on openSUSE Linux 15.4.
YMMV.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 12 2023 15:48 utc | 270

People talking about some speculative bullshit “counter-drone program” part of a Ukrainian “offensive” completely miss the fucking point of Russian AD which can shoot down anything the Ukrainians currently have in theater.
So knock off the bullshit. This is all concern troll crap.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 12 2023 15:51 utc | 271

https://t.me/ZandVchannel/60017
❗️🇷🇺👉🇺🇸🏴‍☠️ Acts of bioterrorism established on the territory of the Luhansk school
This is a crime committed with particular cynicism. The scattered money was infected with a strain of Asian tuberculosis, said Irina Yarovaya, co-chair of the Commission to Investigate the Activities of American Biological Laboratories in Ukraine.
“The examination that we conducted confirmed that these banknotes were infected exclusively in laboratory conditions, that the Asian tuberculosis strain remained alive on these banknotes even after twice processing,” Yarovaya said.

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 12 2023 16:09 utc | 272

Posted by: jared | Apr 12 2023 15:00 utc | 263
The Russians have certainly had operations impacted by drones but nowhere near as much as the Ukrainians, who lose up to 60-80% of drones due to, AD, ECM and operator error.
The impact of drones will last until they are effectively countered, ATGM’s were meant to spell the end of the tank, but overwatch and reactive/composite armours allowed that platform to retains its unique contribution to the battlefield, whilst missile systems evolved, triggering more counters. Same with drones, they have become an essential component of modern warfare; however, all their prospective targets will/are evolving and adapting their procedures and technologies, both existing and future, mitigating its impact until the revolution/evolution cycle starts over again.

Posted by: Milites | Apr 12 2023 16:10 utc | 273

Seymour Hersh:
““Zelensky’s been buying discount diesel from the Russians,” one knowledgeable American intelligence official told me. “And who’s paying for the gas and oil? We are. Putin and his oligarchs are making millions” on it.”
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/trading-with-the-enemy

Posted by: Apollyon | Apr 12 2023 16:18 utc | 274

Richard Steven Hack | Apr 12 2023 15:48 utc | 269
“So maybe the links are hijacked in the browser, but they work fine in Telegram Desktop.”
I guess if ‘they’ can remove the DNS addresses of Sputnik and RT, they can point the DD url to a NAFO site. Makes a kind of sense.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Apr 12 2023 16:18 utc | 275

The two minute drone video of Bakhmut linked by Norwegian was pretty damn sad. Some of the buildings were completely knocked down, no walls standing. Were they hit by glide bombs or just worn down flat by steady shelling? My impression has been that glide bombs were being used around Avdiivka.

Posted by: dadooronron | Apr 12 2023 16:19 utc | 276

If Wagner can perform in Ukraine, why can’t Waters perform in Germany?

Posted by: Jonathan W | Apr 12 2023 16:33 utc | 277

anon2020 | Apr 12 2023 14:43 utc | 259
China was the first to have quantum encryption using lasers and satellites about 10 years ago.
Found this on telegram today but I can’t find an official source: “Zakharova said that Odessa will remain in the zone of interests of Russia”

Posted by: rk | Apr 12 2023 16:37 utc | 278

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 12 2023 15:30 utc | 267
The impact of 2016 was seismic for the Uniparty/Deep State because they were being cut out of policy decisions, including trade agreement negotiations, that they had monopolised for mutual benefit, whilst pretending it was an executive decision. This contracting out satisfied all parties, until 45’, not a Big Club member, started awkward questions about who really benefited from these ‘deals’.

Posted by: Milites | Apr 12 2023 16:38 utc | 279

@ Posted by: Milites | Apr 12 2023 16:10 utc | 273

The Russians have certainly had operations impacted by drones but nowhere near as much as the Ukrainians, who lose up to 60-80% of drones due to, AD, ECM and operator error.

Do you have evidence that supports that conclusion – I mean other than claims?
My point being that I dont think we really know that to be the case.
It seems to me that a lot of what is accepted as fact is simply people repeating the claims of others.
Which they will do.

Posted by: jared | Apr 12 2023 16:43 utc | 280

My impression has been that glide bombs were being used around Avdiivka.
Posted by: dadooronron | Apr 12 2023 16:19 utc | 276
Have seen a couple of video of large explosions there. One apparently a FAB-1500 and another a FAB 500 glide bomb.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 12 2023 16:51 utc | 281

Posted by: jared | Apr 12 2023 16:43 utc | 280
“It seems to me that a lot of what is accepted as fact is simply people repeating the claims of others. “Which they will do.
Including concern trolls. How successful were drones against Russian air bases in Syria? How successful were they and Tomahawks against Syrian air bases in Syria? What makes anyone think Ukraine is doing any better? When’s the last time you heard about Bayraktars?

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 12 2023 17:01 utc | 282

Posted by: rk | Apr 12 2023 16:37 utc | 278
Here’s a demonstration of drone comms using lasers, along with claims of the possibly advantages.
https://www.qinetiq.com/en/news/qinetiq-deliver-worlds-first-demonstration-of-a-laser-controlled-drone-during-flight
https://www.avoptics.com/2022/07/27/avoptics-provides-free-space-optical-system-worlds-first/

… The innovative demonstration saw a ground based operator control an airborne Un-crewed Air System (UAS), transmitting control commands and receiving sensor and platform information that included Free Space Optical Communications (FSOC) as a bi-directional link in its mission communication system. FSOC provide very high bandwidth, very low probability of detection communications, low logistical footprint and the potential to negate the considerable investment that adversaries may have made in denying the RF spectrum. …

Good news if Zakharova did say that!

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 12 2023 17:05 utc | 283

Posted by: bevin | Apr 12 2023 2:56 utc | 151
Excellent summary.
I would add that “a rising tide lifts all boats” and this is a powerful factor in maintaining and enhancing social cohesion. This “rising tide” was most demonstrably felt in North America post WWII (annual growth rates of above 8%) and to a reduced degree in Europe.
Since the “tide” has now turned in favour of the BRICS and the ROW it can be expected that those nations having experienced centuries of humiliation will demonstrate increased cohesion and social solidarity while the West experiences a more challenging, divisive, and hard to manage social environment.
Of course the key means of imposing order on pending chaos is to declare war on an infidel or, if infidels are in short supply and difficult to conjure up, the American approach may be followed – declare war on those who demonstrate social solidarity, entrepreneurial success, and technological acumen. Under American ideology if you cannot beat it, you destroy it.

Posted by: Sushi | Apr 12 2023 17:48 utc | 284

Although I have been aware of it for sometime, I just read the Simplicius article. AI and recognition tech removing the need for a data link…
I remember seeing a video of a very small and fast quadcopter ducking and dodging as a Russian soldier was trying to down it with an assault rifle. Sort of like an annoying fly. It finally got him. A specially designed munition, not just a commercial unit dropping grenades. Israeli?
The way Russia has set up this battle against the west. WWI style fixed battle lines, trenches and artillery, covered by air defenses that nullify western air power, behind all of that Russia’s strategic missile forces on full alert. And in the midst of that these little drones by both sides.
The Russian cruise missiles running their own EW as they sail calmly across Ukraine. I assume they project ghosts to air defense as the US did to Iran. One video I watched was a Ukraine AD missile fly up into the air and detonate then a few seconds later the Russian missile comes through unmolested.
I was watching the latest Berletic video just before. He talked about how Ukraine was running out of AD, the west running out of ammo and the Americans pushing ‘Ukraine’ to start an offensive. They are between a rock and a hard spot. On one side they are running out of ammo, on the other side the large amount of western wheeled vehicles cannot be used in a spring offensive.
Another thing. Putin spoke on the subject of DU ammunition. He termed them nuclear based and would consider them the same as dirty bombs. The British tanks and the american Bradley use DU. I saw a list of tanks some days back that where listed for the offensive. Numbers of each tank type. I wasn’t traveling so well then but I don’t recall seeing the British tanks in that list.
I would assume that along with the public warning, Russia has also warned US/UK in back channels about the use of DU ammo. I believe there was something about some western equipment/tanks not to be used on the frontlines in case “Russia captured the technology”

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 12 2023 17:53 utc | 285

I love the Russian bear metaphor….our grizzly is a subspecies of the European Brown bear and is an awesome animal…I am a rancher on a remote valley very close to the foothills of the rocky mountains…I have had many unbelievable interactions and conflict over the years…the explosive speed…stealth.. eyesight and strength is awe inspiring….they are shy and timid but once committed there is no surviving a grizzly ambush. One interaction was with a large boar with a 23.5 inch long skull… that’s over 9 foot bear. The Siberian brown bear is the same size as our horribillis and of course the Kodiak bear subspecies is as large as a polar bear. Formidable animals.
NATO miscalculated Russian tactics and expected a long drawn out insurgency in Ukraine…hence the NATO Instructors where teaching small unit tactics…. Russia miscalculated and expected Kiev to back down in the early stages of the intervention hence the kid gloves and insufficient manpower allocated. NATO then reconfigured it’s operational plans and loaded thousands of armoured vehicles and a covert surge of personel and logistics into Romania.. Latvia and Poland.
Russia changed its operational plans and tactics to this current artillery war of attrition….and have literally destroyed the combined Ukrainian forces at least twice over. I suspect Russia is taking its time for a few reasons…this strategy of massive fire support tied into real time observation systems is decimating Ukrainian forces plus I believe the Russians are aware of a redline trigger… that will Initiate NATO intervention. I suspect the Western powers expect to occupy Western Ukraine. There may be other factors relating to this pause in tempo… domestic instability in the United States or imminent events involving China or Iran.
I think in a round about way Russia has lost the moral high ground with this intervention that was ostensibly to protect brother Slavs in the Donbas…when the true casualty figures become common knowledge..it will be apperent that Russia was compelled to kill and maim a million and a half of their brethren.

Posted by: Joe | Apr 12 2023 18:22 utc | 286

@ Norwegian | Apr 12 2023 5:26 utc | 165
Agree. So much of “opposition” within the Natzo regimes focuses on procedure or how much it costs, instead of calling out their rulers as mass murderers and organizing and voting to replace them. It’s especially disappointing to see many self-professed religious people say so little.
It’s like Rand Paul complaining about oversight.
Posted by: natokraine | Apr 12 2023 11:01 utc | 214
Yup, those people and politicians are called the Controlled Opposition. The only type of opposition that is allowed in the Land of the Free or other supposed democracies.
The primary political agenda of these Controlled Opposition political hacks is to control the debate to procedural issues, tactics, or the cost/benefits of American/NATO wars–rather than the criminality of American/NATO wars.
They are analogous to mafia gang members debating among themselves how best to murder someone or the cost/benefits of this murder–rather than opposing the murder itself.
Wars are bad–unless they are Congressionally approved wars that America benefits from. Then, they are DoublePlusGood Wars!

Posted by: ak74 | Apr 12 2023 18:34 utc | 287

@ Joe, §286:
Are you for real?
“I think in a round about way Russia has lost the moral high ground with this intervention . . . “
Who had the “moral high ground” then? The Ukronazis who´d murdered over twenty thousand civilians?

Posted by: John Marks | Apr 12 2023 18:42 utc | 288

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 12 2023 4:57 utc | 160
Not even China can rescue Ukraine at this stage. Putin made that clear when Xi visited him. Negotiations will not happen.
Negotiations are pointless. Statements by Hollande and Merkel made evident there was no intent to support the accords which they were responsible for enforcing; they simply sought to buy time to re-arm 404.
The blood had not yet been washed out of Independence Square before the first contingent of Canadian military trainers landed. From 2014 to the present day, the members of NATOstan have engaged in the delivery of advanced arms and training to 404. Such action contradicts the UN Charter to which all NATOstan members are signatories; it also contravenes the provisions of the North Atlantic Treaty to which they are also signatories. But these are nothing but facts; reality is what we invent and impose on others. Facts are ignored.
Military conflict is found abhorrent. People fail to understand the fundamental democratic nature of war. In war the enemy always has a vote.
In the present day west there is no one with whom negotiations can be undertaken. Any attempt at a negotiated peace would simply allow time for a future western military build up coupled with a western financed guerilla resistance and an ongoing terror campaign to be followed by a resumption of hostilities on more favourable terms within the decade. Who will vote for this outcome?
We need come to an agreement on the nature of the present conflict. What is occurring in 404 is a unconscionable tragedy. But 404 is a sideshow. And Bakhmut is but a sideshow to a sideshow.
The real conflict concerns the global reserve currency and the unlimited spending available to the Gweilo which gives them the limitless capacity to purchase politicians, suborn states, buy munitions, and impose their chosen “reality.”
Gweilo reality is in the process of being rejected by the world. Once diminished it will be forgotten. Imagine all the people livin’ life in peace. It isn’t hard to do.
No negotiations required. Imagine that.

Posted by: Sushi | Apr 12 2023 18:54 utc | 289

Posted by: John Marks | Apr 12 2023 18:42 utc | 288
Twenty thousand dead Ukrainians killed by other Ukrainians and then to save more Ukrainians Russia has killed and maimed physically and mentally over a million and a half I m guessing so far…had to be done but this will have dire consequences on these new additions to the Russian federation is my point

Posted by: Joe | Apr 12 2023 19:16 utc | 290

Urgh you antisemitic pervert.
Posted by: Squeeth | Apr 11 2023 21:51 utc |
——————
I’m just calling balls and strikes. If the enemy of all free life on earth were Irish Catholics … I’d call it that way. Doesn’t matter to me. Identifying the PROBLEM is always the first step to solving every Earthly problem.
We (The 8 billion of us on Earth) have a SEVERE problem. I’m calling it out. As I see it, obviously. But, I’m PRO things, like the life of every human gifted by God that shouldn’t be tossed away for some evil cultish ideology. Our American “elites” are an evil cult. Truth is tough, it took me forever to acknowledge it.

Posted by: Drake Schroeder | Apr 12 2023 19:18 utc | 291

Thinking about Macron’s visit to China and the way that Xi treated him “royally”, including bringing out a 1265 year old musical instrument, which was played for him. (A rare honour)
One obvious reason for that treatment could have been to emphasise that he was the leader of a sovereign Nation, making a strict distinction between him and Ursula Fon-da lyin’, who was only an unelected bureaucrat along for the ride and to make sure Macron stuck to a script.
It came to me later, that was not Macron’s real role that of Emissary of the Rothschilds? That the “powers behind the politicians” want a route to make a deal with the new forces represented by China and Russia?

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 12 2023 19:22 utc | 292

Clown cake
‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾
James Hendrickson:
Спасибо, дорогая мама! 😀
Will you send us cake when we are stuck in Guantanamo? If you send enough the guards and torturers will die of cardiac arrest since they’ll steal and eat it.
Unless Outraged has made us FOAD (not food) first for whatever reason, then no Cuba for us!
Clownery for the clown world.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Apr 12 2023 19:58 utc | 293

“The japanese yen and the german mark became stronger and stronger currencies after several year beyond WW2 because lots of people wanted to buy machines from Germany or consumer goods from Japan (and cars from both) and needed marks and yen to pay for them.”
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Apr 12 2023 12:28 utc | 235
«Sounds lovely theory but not historical fact. German D-Mark was not even convertible until 1957 […] Yen not really convertible before 1964»
That is “after several years beyond WW2”, but regardless this is an irrelevant and even comically silly point:
* Irrelevant because most of the costs (e.g. wages) of producing the exports of Germany and Japan were in marks and yen and therefore export earnings had to be converted from dollars into marks and yen to pay those costs, It is wrong to imply that once the exports of Germany and Japan were invoiced in USA dollars they would remain in dollar denominated accounts and not be converted into marks and yens. Neither Germany nor Japan had a dollarized economy like some third world countries did.
* Comically silly because “inconvertibility” as a rule means that you cannot freely *sell* the “inconvertible” currency to buy another currency, not that you cannot *buy* it with another currency (the purpose of “inconvertibility” is to prevent capital exports to keep the exchange rate high), and that was the case with the german mark, the japanese yen, the UK sterling, the italian lira, the french franc etc. after WW2. Oh please. The only recent partial exception have been the partial attempts by the swiss central bank to discourage purchases of swiss francs.
That inconvertibility was about not being able to just *sell* a currency (IMF Article VIII vs. Article XIV members) without approval to make payments to foreigners is clear from here:
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=LvcQehViBxoC&pg=PA346
“Ten members of the International Monetary Fund today [February 15 1961] announced the formal convertibility of their currencies within the meaning of the articles of agreement of the Fund. The 10 are the United Kingdom, the 6 members of the European Economic Community — that is, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands — together with Sweden, Ireland, and Peru. […] Most of these countries announced the convertibility of their currencies for nonresidents some 2 years ago. […] The present move by the 10 countries to article VIII has become possible after years of effort by these countries to strengthen their internal economies and to achieve a sufficiently strong balance-of-payments and reserve position to enable them to remove restrictions on current international payments. The decisive step for the nine European countries concerned was taken in December 1958, when they established the external convertibility of their currencies”

Posted by: Blissex | Apr 12 2023 21:24 utc | 294

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpYEJx7PkWE
Statler and Waldorf give their verdict on the US-Ukronazi defence of Artemovsk. ;O)

Posted by: Squeeth | Apr 12 2023 21:33 utc | 295

@ 291
Where did you leave your brains? The zionist antisemites are a proxy, a Brownshirt gang for American Caesar, not Jews.

Posted by: Squeeth | Apr 12 2023 21:51 utc | 296

Posted by: Squeeth | Apr 12 2023 21:51 utc | 296
————–
I’ve made the point I intended, however inelegantly. That’s the way the cookie crumbles.
I honor the God-loving Hassid stalwarts who walk openly to their Synagogues in their honorable journey through life. Faithful Jews are peaceful, beautifully well educated and intelligent and … largely under siege by the worst elements in our American dystopia.
I DO NOT HONOR the ethnic and secular “Jewish” cultists who are orchestrating war and DEATH around this world. Makes me sick to my stomach. And I KNOW the source of the death and destruction. Every sentient individual of ethics and honor have discovered the lies, treachery and … mass murder … of these demons. I didn’t know then. I believed George W Bush’s lies. Well … I know NOW!
How much innocent Ukrainian, Russian, Syrian, Iraqi, Libyan, Afghan blood do scum like Joe Biden, Victoria Nuland, Tony Blinken, George Soros and Jake Sullivan need to create for a guy like you to understand what the fuck is going on?
We’re on the precipice of WORLD WAR THREE! None of us are getting out of this alive if shit keeps going this way. Joe Biden can’t perform a simple ice cream cone transaction … he’s on the nuke button? WTF?
I don’t get you. Do better. Please.

Posted by: Drake Schroeder | Apr 12 2023 22:37 utc | 297

@ Stonebird 292
Yes, maybe bridges are being built between SCO and Western finance. But set there a shared affinity between France and China’s revolutions at a time that Britain is celebrating its fossildom and total irrelevance by the crowning of a man who instinctively hates royalty as much as royalty hates his irreverence?
Britain toxicly clings to the worst manifestations of its irrelevance. Conservatism and inability to change are not on the agenda for a multipolar world.
China’s hospitality to Macron seems genuinely heart-felt.

Posted by: Giyane | Apr 12 2023 23:44 utc | 298

WRT Drinky Crow’s bears, the Eurasian “Brown Bear” is the same
species as Polar Bears AND Grizzlies. In America we’ve got these
other soft little things called “Black Bears” that are bug and
carrion eaters that confuse the issue of what a Bear is.

Posted by: Fubar El Haq | Apr 13 2023 4:28 utc | 299

Posted by: julianmacfarlane | Apr 11 2023 15:30 utc | 6
Thanks b, Julian and most other contributors. Amongst other things, I’d say the leaks have allowed the msm to inform the bewildered herd that NATO troops are In Ukraine, softening up the public for further escalation. We the western public must vociferously oppose this madness. Peacetalk, don’t harangue the barflies, protest against your western government, for they are feeding the meat grinder.
I say thanks to most contributors…
‘For fun, I go to Douglas Macgregor’s YT channel and read the video synopsis’s from 5 months ago. Highly and entertaining and much recommended.
Alternatively, you can go back a year on MoA and read the informed commentary from then. Again, highly entertaining.’
Posted by: Longhorn | Apr 10 2023 21:56 utc | 65
When the real idiots post, you have to wait less than two weeks for their immature idiotic nonsense to be proven as such.
‘Lol, so after 8 months of fighting and tens of thousands dead, Wagner took City Hall? Do you have any idea how pathetic that statement is? The stupid, it hurts.’
Posted by: Longhorn | Apr 2 2023 23:19 utc | 142
So stupid it does indeed hurt. Since the troll posted that shite last week, almost 15,000 UAF have been killed or maimed in the meat grinder; the lack of equipment and manpower on the ‘leaked’ docs that sensible people here are discussing is actually outdated because as b states the Russian MoD clobber lists are becoming longer everyday and your Bakhmut is now called Artyomovsk. The Wagner PMC and Russian MoD have moved on significantly, steadily grinding westwards.

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Apr 13 2023 6:29 utc | 300

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