Bilejones
The attempts to scrub the data from the internet lead me to 2 conclusions
1. The intelligence services are utterly inept, and don’t know what the Streisand effect is
2. The intelligence services are utterly inept, and are attempting to draw attention to a disinformation attempt

Posted by: Wazdaka | Apr 9 2023 13:14 utc | 3

Posted by: Bilejones | Apr 9 2023 13:05 utc | 1
Look at their disingenuous attempts to blame the previous administration for the Afghanistan debacle, as a roadmap for their approach to the forthcoming collapse in Ukraine. The Ukrainians will be blamed for not giving an accurate intelligence picture and launching offensives that NATO had advised against. The black market trade in sophisticated weapons will be suddenly ‘discovered’ as a reason for failure and they’ll obviously try to blame the Trump administration for anything else!

Posted by: Milites | Apr 9 2023 13:54 utc | 5

If it’s intentionally dispersed misinformation, who is it meant to misinform?

Posted by: Skiffer | Apr 9 2023 13:58 utc | 7

@Bilejones | Apr 9 2023 13:05 utc | 1
If there is any realism left, you may have a point. Only time will tell. I suspect “USkraine” is sufficiently trapped by own propaganda that there is no escape.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 9 2023 14:05 utc | 9

Just saw the dead tree NYT. The column 1 page 1 story (I’m sure as heck not doing more than reading a moment from the newsstand) is about how the leaks show that US has deeply penetrated and compromised Russian intelligence.
They are so hypnotized that Washington could be burnt to the ground, they would insist it was a victory. Oh, Paris is burning. Showed some acquaintances a photo gallery of Paris and they were completely sure this was isolated and minimal. They would have heard of it.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 9 2023 14:14 utc | 11

Part 1
What is wrong with the “secret plan” of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: analysis of the military chronicle
On April 6, photographs of a document detailing the planned Ukrainian offensive emerged. The “leakage” of documents coincided with news that NATO’s Defender 2023 exercise, scheduled for late April, could become a front for an operation to supply and support Ukrainian units. However, a closer look at the document raises doubts about its authenticity.
When did he appear?
Allegedly secret plans to support the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine hit the Internet the day before the statement by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken about the start of an imminent offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The US Secretary of State said the offensive would begin “within a few weeks.”
What information does it contain?
Leakage of documents of this kind has never occurred since the very beginning of the NWO in Ukraine. It is noteworthy that right now, the published plans included not only data with a schedule for supplying Ukrainian units with NATO weapons and ammunition, but also information about the structure of brigades and battalions allegedly prepared for the offensive.
The document, dated March 1, contains information that for the offensive, the brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine need 253 tanks, more than 380 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, 480 vehicles, 147 artillery pieces and 571 HMMWV armored vehicles.
What data is most questionable?
The probable location of Russian units on the map of hostilities (they are indicated in red) is presumably collected from open sources. Several pro-Ukrainian resources for tracking hostilities at once contain almost identical information.
Also, in the “secret plans” that got into the Internet, the ratio of killed and wounded of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation at the moment was changed. At first, the losses of the Ukrainian side were underestimated and were estimated at about 16.5-17 thousand people. Then (probably for realism) they increased by almost five times – up to 65-70 thousand people. At the same time, the allegedly known losses of the RF Armed Forces in equipment coincide with the data published by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
What else is wrong with the published offensive plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
The frank falsification of data on the readiness of the APU units is striking. The document states that out of nine brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly trained by March 31 and April 30 according to US and NATO standards, five formations have a zero level of training: these are the 82nd airborne brigade, the 32nd, 117th and 118th territorial defense brigades, as well as 21 I am a separate mechanized brigade.
Even if only two or three companies were trained in these brigades, and the training itself was not completed, there can be no zero level of training. At the same time, the highest percentage of unit readiness was recorded only in the 47th mechanized brigade (40%) and the 46th air assault brigade (60%) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
What is the result?
Also in the offensive plan, an irrelevant amount of military equipment is mentioned.
For example, out of 109 M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles sent by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for some reason only 99 participate in the offensive. Moreover, the vehicles are not distributed among brigades and are enrolled in only one formation – the 47th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which does not have heavy tanks.
Instead of the Soviet T-72 or T-64BV, this brigade has only Slovak T-55S with 105 mm guns, which are difficult to use in a large-scale offensive.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/40799

Posted by: Down South | Apr 9 2023 14:24 utc | 13

Am I the only one finding it utterly bizarre that Western intelligence would believe for a second that 97% of the Russian army is currently deployed and/or dedicated to Ukraine?… The statement, which reinforces Ben Wallace’s February remark, is beyond absurd. Is this pure incompetence, which I seriously doubt, the continuation of a psyop operation to discredit the Russian army?.. I am perplex I reckon….

Posted by: Ajax | Apr 9 2023 14:30 utc | 15

Our source in the OP said that Zaluzhny is proposing to launch a double counteroffensive in the spring to stretch out the forces of the Russian army.
One grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine should advance in the South, and the second should organize an additional strike in the direction of Severodonetsk in order to capture Svatovo and Kremennaya, creating pressure on Lugansk.
The US/Pentagon, on the contrary, insists on the need for a concentrated strike in the Zaporozhye direction in order to cut the Russian grouping and force it to retreat to the Crimea.

https://t.me/resident_ua/16103

Our source in the OP said that Zaluzhny is considering the scenario of a large-scale counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on 3 sectors of the front, which will allow the Ukrainian army to find weaknesses in the enemy’s defense. Now there are three priority areas:
Svatovskoe/Bakhmutovskoe/Melitopolskoe.
The General Staff is working on several diversionary strikes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of Russia at the time of the counteroffensive in order to cause panic in the ranks of the enemy.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17224

Posted by: Down South | Apr 9 2023 14:42 utc | 17

In respect of the recent ‘leaks’.
As they say, nothing happens in politics by accident. It didn’t smell right from day 1.

Posted by: Ken Tucky | Apr 9 2023 14:49 utc | 19

Is there any chance someone simple asked AI what a “leak” about the war would look like, and the result is what we see?

Posted by: Pete | Apr 9 2023 15:00 utc | 21

As Konami noted §307, #84), the American Mafia is sparing no effort propagandizing the proles of European nations – because they, laughingly, still have elections! Tee-hee! We´ll soon fix that.
I´ll give Europe a couple of years at most before it and its cultures and societies are submerged under some such mercantile corporations.

Posted by: John Marks | Apr 9 2023 15:09 utc | 23

reply to 4
We may need reminders about how truly chaotic US intelligence is. Such as when 6 reports on Afghanistan made no prediction about collapse as they left (WSJ). Or 9/11. Or the fall of Communism in Eastern Europe. Or as in recent headlines about being blindsided by China on Iran and the Saudis. Or headlines about Russia paying the Taliban to kill Americans (Pentagon denied this). Or all of the nonsense about Trump. Or the abject failure of sanctions.
Literally, no one is in charge (including Biden). Congress seems to try to trigger wars weekly (Iran, China, Russia, Syria and whatever they’re doing in Africa).
I ask myself, “Could they really be that stupid or deluded?”. Incredibly, the answer seems to be yes.

Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 9 2023 15:28 utc | 25

What is wrong with the “Secret plan” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (part 2): ​​analysis of the military chronicle
In the first part of a major analysis of supposedly secret documents, we found that the authenticity of the data is highly questionable. In the second part, the oddities with the origin of the information turned out even more.
What information is published?
The second part of the document examines the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to counter the activity of Russian air and cruise missile attacks, as well as the supply of Ukrainian army units with ammunition necessary for combat operations.
It is true that the top secret sentences, which indicate the closed nature of the document, appear on several pages alongside the sentences Based on known contributions, training paths and projections. This means that the “secret plan” was written based on known data and not intelligence, which automatically raises doubts about its validity.
Which dates are the most questionable?
According to the report, the SA-10 (S-300) and SA-11 (Buk) systems make up 89% of Ukraine’s air defenses. It also contains data that the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces used up the ammunition for the Buk air defense missile systems by March 31, 2023, and all the ammunition for the S-300 missiles will be used up by the beginning of May this year. At the same time, the document does not contain a real assessment of missile stocks for these complexes, and all proposals to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine boil down to the need to “re-equip” the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces with them. rockets. There is no data on where such missiles are taken from. The plan also reports on the depletion of the stockpile of missiles for the IRIS-T SL and NASAMS air defense systems. The missiles for these complexes should end up with the Armed Forces of Ukraine in February and April 2023, respectively. That might seem like the truth, if not for one, but.
In some lines of the document, the name of the NASAMS air defense system is misspelled without the last letter – NASAM, which is unacceptable in documents of this level. Briefings with sensitive data are always checked before publication.
There is one more oddity. In official NATO documents, the weapons of the USSR / RF are indicated in the NATO codification. There is no stylistic uniformity in the leaked documents – the text contains a mixture of official code designations and transliterations of names from Russian into English – S-300 / OSA, etc. In addition to spelling errors, there are other inaccuracies.
On the combat mission map of the NASAMS complexes in Ukraine, 49 points are indicated where these air defense systems are located. However, in reality, Kiev uses only two air defense systems of this type. Eight other NASAMS kits are included in the USAI packages: they have been ordered from the industry but have not yet been delivered to the customer. It is physically impossible to place NASAMS at 49 points under such conditions.
What else is wrong?
There are inaccuracies in the published structure of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On numerous videos, training on German Leopard 2 tanks was carried out by tankers from the 4th brigade. However, the leaked documents indicate that the German tanks went to the 33rd Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This unit was disbanded in 2016 and then re-formed as a reserve. For the offensive, it would be more logical to train already experienced tankers and not give scarce equipment to the reserve.
What’s the score?
When drawing up such a plan, the Command of the US Army in Europe (EUCOM) should not have assumed and taken data from open sources, but should have known exactly how many weapons, equipment and people the Armed Forces of Ukraine have.
When preparing this supposedly secret document, the authors did not include protected topics such as the number of HIMARS MLRS and other high-precision weapons used in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which indicates the involvement of Ukrainian analysts in work prohibited, on such topics to write. A real briefing, prepared “for themselves” by the US military, would provide all the necessary data.

Posted by: mo3 | Apr 9 2023 15:38 utc | 27

In response to too scents@22,
I see no reason to believe that these documents can be used to predict anything. Rather, they do appear to mimic figures and scenarios raised in public discourse, the basis of which could very well serve as training material for some automated aggregator.

Posted by: Skiffer | Apr 9 2023 15:43 utc | 29

One of the central problems faced by Russia in Ukraine is the difficulty of overcoming simple, WWI-style trench fortifications. They resist conventional artillery bombardment, but they are not immune to thermobaric weapons. The thermobaric warheads of the Russian TOS-1A MLRS can destroy just about anything, including trench networks, but they have relatively short range and there are not enough of them to deploy everywhere they are needed.
With the advent of the Russian conversions of dumb aircraft bombs to precision-guided glide weapons, there is the opportunity to deliver much more powerful thermobaric bombs by this means. A single large thermobaric bomb can destroy a big segment of trench fortifications or even the strongest concrete high-rise building. The usage of these weapons will signal the total defeat of the Ukrainian army.

Posted by: HH | Apr 9 2023 16:02 utc | 31

Posted by: Bilejones | Apr 9 2023 13:05 utc | 1
Speaking of shooting if foot or feet … European feet … shot:
Clare Daly MEP: Europe has become the tail of the US dog, shot itself in its feet
Interview with Li Jingjing [23 mins]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNy6vcWRiB8

Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 9 2023 16:05 utc | 33

Shocking Pentagon Intelligence Leak !!!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/intelligence-leak-exposes-us-spying-on-adversaries-and-allies/ar-AA19DplU
Some CNN FP expert was alarmed that the info ‘was not vetted’. Well neither are the rumors, spread by ‘unnamed U.S. officials’, who routinely lie about Russia, China, and Iran. This is an admission by her that the MSM is only their to do the bidding of the U.S. govt.

Posted by: Christian Chuba | Apr 9 2023 16:11 utc | 35

@ Down South | Apr 9 2023 14:24 utc | 13

.. What else is wrong with the published offensive plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? ..

There is nothing “wrong” as you questioned, due to that’s only managed for the “Public” audience, as You being one of them “puböics” (pls- excuse, you esp. Your friends are a good, appreciated writers here on MoA, but only ‘on paper’).
Newertheless, some “things” are going ahead – from either side – but nobody nows how&where and by what battalions en-detail to what (meat-grinder, Sniper focused on Z-Piano-Lensky? ..
All just today (Bakhmut, Adjevka OPs, newly arised hidden reserves in Kherson regions) is only an assumption for awaiting a some further weeks to give US/UK/GER media an updated vision of the ‘war’ …
But note, if really a so-called UKR-Offensive will start next week(s) on every side by Ukrainians and US/UK/EU soldiers, flying “some ‘F16 & Tornado etc.” personnaly as US/EU pilots, simultaneously,
The Russians will check that (hopefully they can check for that US/GER-pilots) ..
But than, “time is over” for gaming …

Posted by: spare_truth | Apr 9 2023 16:25 utc | 37

@Eighthman

I ask myself, “Could they really be that stupid or deluded?”. Incredibly, the answer seems to be yes

This is what happens when you treat the rest of the world as a bunch of backwater bozos to be bullied around.
Diplomacy has been abandoned by the west.
I just listened to Mercouris’ latest. A couple takeaways for those who don’t have the time to take it in:
Macrons visit to Xi was a complete debacle
Unconfirmed reports that Bakhmut has fallen now and the UAF is trying to retreat to Chasiv yar.
Last roads have been cut though.

Posted by: Chris | Apr 9 2023 16:46 utc | 39

In the Ukraine, they would of sold the stolen bible?
‘The antithesis of the Bible’: New NASA official praised for being sworn in on Carl Sagan book
https://www.alternet.org/nasa-official-carl-sagan-book/

Posted by: Duncan Idaho | Apr 9 2023 16:52 utc | 41

Telegram channels were the first to write about problems with air defense shells, but they tried to solve the issue through black market purchases in Asia and Africa, but the volumes are too small.
According to the elite units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine / GUR / SBU, telegram channels also wrote that Syrsky threw the best Ukrainian units into the Bakhmutovsky meat grinder, as a result, the city was not surrounded, but most died or were injured. Over the past month, we have lost several units of Alpha SBU, which indicates the high cost of keeping Bakhmut.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17225

Keeping Bakhmut loses its meaning every day, but for the Office of the President it is a symbol that must be kept despite the losses. Decisive battles for the UAF for the city will begin next week, and the loss of 2-3 blocks in the north or south of Bakhmut will be a disaster for the defense.
Our main fortified area is located in high-rise buildings, but the enemy simply levels the area with artillery, and the operational environment continues to play against the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we cannot organize a normal supply and transfer of reserves.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17226

About the transfer of “elite” reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which were originally intended to participate in the upcoming offensive, writes The New York Times. According to the newspaper, due to the heavy losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the catastrophic situation of the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut / Artemovsk, it was the transferred reserves that slowed down the fall of the city.
Perhaps they are preparing for a counter strike on the RF Armed Forces in order to recapture the city.
Our next insider was confirmed. Zelensky sent and is sending reserves to keep Bakhmut in order to save his image.
We wrote in March that no one at the general headquarters could convince the President to stop throwing reserves into Bakhmut’s meat grinder. It is the Bakhmut meat grinder that many call the reason why the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can be thwarted.

https://t.me/legitimniy/15121

Posted by: Down South | Apr 9 2023 17:01 utc | 43

The leaks are real. I suspect that a faction of the Mossad is the source as it would be the most likely foreign intelligence service that could both access them and would have any reason to make them public. There’s a lot of US-Israeli shenanigans going on. Netanyahu went so far as to accuse Biden of color revolutioning him. And the article about “Russiagate” being an Israeli op looks like someone trying to undermine Bibi, so this could be a response.
I’d say it’s possible the leak came from Ukraine based on known examples of dual loyalty in US institutions (eg Vindeman) and the possibility of feeing like there’s not enough support or it’s waning. But that’s a lot of disgruntled so I wouldn’t call it probable.
And there’s always US internal faction wars that could produce it, but that would only apply to the Ukraine specific files.
The there are info ops related to the front coming from Ukraine it’s probably what kind of units are going to Bakhmut and the talk of sending lots of elite troops. Those are likely being held back for an offensive.

Posted by: Lex | Apr 9 2023 17:19 utc | 45

Avdiivka direction
The operation to take Avdeevka into a complete encirclement continues. After the artillery preparation the day before yesterday, our Army again undertook assault actions from two directions:
in the area of Vodyane and Severnoye, as well as in the area of Pervomaiskoye, where our fighters are busy expanding the bridgehead in the western direction—the enemy is driven out to the western outskirts of Pervomaiskoye, despite fierce resistance. 
To the north, in the vicinity of Krasnogorovka, our troops entered Petrovske and pushed the enemy towards Berdychi.
In the Kamenka area, our troops came close to the administrative boundaries of Avdeevka from the eastern side.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/41134

Posted by: Down South | Apr 9 2023 17:26 utc | 47

Time to repost this gem from a B. article –
Early in life I have noticed that no event is ever correctly reported in a newspaper, but in Spain, for the first time, I saw newspaper reports which did not bear any relation to the facts, not even the relationship which is implied in an ordinary lie.
I saw great battles reported where there had been no fighting, and complete silence where hundreds of men had been killed. I saw troops who had fought bravely denounced as cowards and traitors, and others who had never seen a shot fired hailed as the heroes of imaginary victories; and I saw newspapers in London retailing these lies and eager intellectuals building emotional superstructures over events that had never happened.
I saw, in fact, history being written not in terms of what happened but of what ought to have happened according to various ‘party lines’.
George Orwell, Looking back on the Spanish War, Chapter 4
rest of article
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2018/04/the-media-war-on-truthful-reporting-and-legitimate-opinions-a-documentary.html

Posted by: Exile | Apr 9 2023 17:30 utc | 49

RELEASED “SECRET DOCUMENTS”
Recently a NATO center within Ukraine was missiled by the Russians. Maybe during the cleanup of this facility, these “secret” documents were found, hidden, and sold.
I have not heard that these plans had any specific deployment dates or locations. There were some weather reports that indicated when an offensive might be viable regarding road and field conditions.
Maybe these plans are entirely fake to mislead the Russians. If they are a fake, a lot of detailed information was defined therein. Enough details are found within these documents for the Russians to be able to determine if they fake or real. This makes me think that the plans may be authenic.
Whether these documents are real or fake, it will shake the morale of the Ukrainian troops to know that the plans of their command may be compromised. The last thing that a trooper wants is for the enemy to know when and where he is coming. Even though these plans did not define specific mobilization dates and locations, they did define specific date windows for mobilization.
Regardless of their source and regardless if these plans are accurate or not; overall it will hurt the Ukrainian efforts the most. They will hurt in the morale of the AFU to some degree regardless if they are or if they are not authenic.
If they are fake, I am sure the Russians will figure it out before any Ukrainian offensive is launched.

Posted by: young | Apr 9 2023 17:33 utc | 51

Quiz question, do you think the situation has got better or worse, in NATO countries, since 1999? Bearing in mind the UK was one of the only countries to contribute the agreed 4% of its budgetary spending on defence.
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199899/cmselect/cmdfence/274/27405.htm
Better or worse, under 16 years of Democrat cuts and the Republican focus on the GWAT?
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1708&context=parameters

Posted by: Milites | Apr 9 2023 17:39 utc | 53

If Russia continues to destroy significant concentrations of troops and materiel, it will not have mattered whether the leaked documents are genuine or fake.

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 9 2023 17:51 utc | 55

Or Aelenskiy could be made to appear to be having been killed while actually not, as he is whisked away. However, he becomes a liability quite easily at any given time. His usefulness is fast wearing out.
My how they’ve propped him up and made a sensation of him. Quite an unbelievable spectacle. I mean, literally unbelievable. The olive drab pants and t shirts and fresh haircuts.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Apr 9 2023 18:15 utc | 57

Posted by: young | Apr 9 2023 17:33 utc | 51

.. Maybe these plans are entirely fake to mislead the Russians. If they are a fake, a lot of detailed information was defined therein. Enough details are found within these documents for the Russians to be able to determine if they fake or real. This makes me think that the plans may be authenic. ..

You know – as most of MoAs here know – that a so-called “Leak” publicly set on Twitter/Facebook or whereever .., and signed originally by ‘The Pentagon’ and/or its sub-contractors to give any reference about, is completely a fake.
Sorry, against other above mentioned “words” I’ve registered that crazy to my own personal mind.
Not more – Okay?
All MoAs are sure that China will going ahead to establish a so-called “Multi-Polar” World.
You – MoA’ guys + guys-innen – may laugh hereto, but the sense is and that remain that Chinese is not a no-one.
Think about – RF has understood – weapons going under the table – but for 1 goal as known known …
Be sure .. thanks for reading ..

Posted by: spare_truth | Apr 9 2023 18:29 utc | 59

Posted by: Lex | Apr 9 2023 17:19 utc | 45
Bibi: it’s America’s fault!
i don’t think anything today will make me laugh more with genuine glee.
everything is about him, too, isn’t it? who does that sound like?

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Apr 9 2023 18:42 utc | 61

The end result of taking Bakhmut/Artyomovsk is going to be hardened elite shock troop training.

Bakhmut: Some UA sources report that ours breached the railroad tracks. Yes, that’s true, but they haven’t been able to attach themselves to the other side until now. That’s why I haven’t written anything about it yet. You have to wait a bit here now, as soon as they could hold their territory on the other side I will write more about it. The fact is: the station area is boiling. Unusually fierce battles rage on into the night again. In this area Wagner fights hand in hand with RU special units against Ukrainian elite units.
763 views Rémy Lind, 19:42

https://t.me/s/remylind21

Posted by: too scents | Apr 9 2023 19:15 utc | 63

Re: NATO Air Force exercise
All part of prep for the glorious (sic) counter offensive in 2024 or 2025.

Posted by: Exile | Apr 9 2023 19:21 utc | 65

Re: the “leaked” documents. While I agree that there is something rather fishy about the timing and some of the information contained, as others pointed out last night (here in US time), Simplicius the Thinker broke down the Ukraine-related documents at his Substack and found that they mostly agreed with his previous analysis. There is talk in his comments about this “leak” perhaps, then, being mostly real and possibly even designed to expose Ukraine’s massive weaknesses heading into the so-called spring offensive. IF this is the case, then it’s possible whoever “leaked” them wants the plug pulled on this whole thing here in the West, meaning “time to negotiate, we can’t send you enough weapons for you to win anymore.”
That’s just one theory, though, and I agree with the sentiment expressed here by others that it might be nice to see what’s in the *other* non-Ukraine related documents allegedly contained in the “leak.” Someone referenced South Korea up-thread. I stopped reading at that comment, BTW, so if someone else has already posted a link to some of the other files/docs, I’ll have a look and potentially revise this comment w/ an addendum.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 9 2023 19:37 utc | 67

I believe part of the US plan was to have the Russians occupy areas of Ukraine and suffer US supported insurgencies
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 9 2023 14:13 utc | 10
Agree. Something like: Allow the Russians to take Kiev, and then shoot at patrolling Russian tanks and helicopters with Us-supplied anti-tank and manpads.

Posted by: Passerby | Apr 9 2023 20:02 utc | 69

Macrons visit to Xi was a complete debacle
Unconfirmed reports that Bakhmut has fallen now and the UAF is trying to retreat to Chasiv yar.
Last roads have been cut though.
Posted by: Chris | Apr 9 2023 16:46 utc | 39

I would say von der Leyen (VDL) visit was a complete debacle. Some have noted that she got dumped by Macron where he later met with Xi elsewhere far from VDL. Macron did manage to get business contracts signed for Airbus and purchased some LNG tankers from China. I see Macron’s faux pas during their joint press conference was to appease VDL and her handlers.

Posted by: Ian2 | Apr 9 2023 20:12 utc | 71

Posted by: Down South | Apr 9 2023 14:25 utc | 14
Alternatively, distributing sensitive documents with unique ‘mistakes’, to determine the identity of a potential leaker, is common practice amongst many organisations. Differing weapons nomenclature could also be as a result of multiple sources being cut and pasted. I attended a presentation by an aviation engineering company, specialising in modernisation programmes for civilian and military platforms where the opening PP slide had, ‘Pathways to sucess’ written on it., and a close friend of mine, received advertising copy from a major auto manufacturer’s agency, for a massive promotional campaign, that had the vehicle’s model name spelt incorrectly. Unacceptable, yes, but all too human I’m afraid.

Posted by: Milites | Apr 9 2023 20:21 utc | 73

Prigozhin’s statements are not easy to fathom. It’s not only his irony (which goes deep), but also the way he describes relations between Wagner on one side and the Russian army and officials on the other. Whether it is obfuscation, or a real frustration with a remaining fifth column I personally can’t say. But any fifth column there could be, seems headed for expulsion (if not execution if Putin’s successor is more Stalinist). The early twentieth century is being replayed, on many fronts. Only the West doesn’t have the big guns exclusively anymore.

Posted by: Anthony | Apr 9 2023 20:24 utc | 75

Ajax | Apr 9 2023 14:30 utc | 15
Number of Russian combat troops before the SMO was 1.2 million. I assume that covers all those who man some form of weapon system. That is without the volunteers and the 300 thousand mobilized. Putin issued a degree some time ago to take the number of the standing army combat troops to 1.5 million.
According to the Pentagon, Russia before the mobilization used 140 BTG’s for the Ukraine theater. Perhaps 100 thousand men depending on numbers in each BTG. On top of that would be air and naval assets plus missile forces.
In the east there is US occupied Japan, in the south there is Georgia and perhaps Kazakhstan, and in the west there is the Nato front. Russia maintains a standing army that is equivalent or sufficient to whatever possible threat it sees on its borders. 140 BTG’s was the force they allowed for the Ukraine front, and they were sufficient to destroy the first/original Ukraine army. At no time did or has Russia pulled forces from other areas for Ukraine.
At the time Russia pulled back in Karkov, there was a 50 or 60 thousand man exercise in the east. Instead Russia took its time and mobilized an extra 300 thousand. The bulk of them as far as I can make out are still being held in researve.
There is also the 80 thousand volunteers that signed up and were well into their training when the mobilization occurred. At the time of the mobilization, Shoigu said they were now fighting Nato. That was the second army Russia face at the time of the Kherson and Khakov offensive. That is when Ukraine frontline radio traffic became all forign language. Polish English ect. Still plenty of Ukraine cannon fodder but large numbers of foriegn forces dressed in Ukraine uniforms. Now the Russians are dug in and waiting for the third and probably last Nato/Ukraine army and that too will be destroyed.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 9 2023 20:27 utc | 77

@ #50
Fellow human, as I asked, “to what gain?”
In ten minutes. Shanghi London Beijing Moscow DC New York L.A. Norfolk Reykjavik, Balaklava, Vladivostok, etc… etc…
Then, nuclear winter.
How much food do you have handy?
What a delightful exercise on our glorious earth.
So, what gain?
Love all.

Posted by: Ayhol | Apr 9 2023 20:51 utc | 79

Oriental Voice @76 “I didn’t know that has been the case, and I wonder what have they bought for that money spent. I for one can’t see anything useful.”
Well they have 2 new aircraft carriers both in dock with propeller shaft problems.

Posted by: dh | Apr 9 2023 21:11 utc | 81

One more aspect of the leaked documents affaire is quite interesting. The leak happened the day before Blinken officially confirmed that an Ukrainian counter-offensive should happen in the coming weeks. On the one hand, the leaked documents seem to confirm that Ukraine is not prepared for such an offensive because of lack of ammunition, equipment, etc. On the other hand, after the Blinken’s statement, Ukraine is put in a position where it must launch an offensive of some sort. Some have been tempted to assume that the leak affaire was an attempt at disinformation aimed at the Russians. But what if the target was Ukraine (whose dire situation is publicly exposed) or even the European sheeple (aka allies) who have been heavily invested in supporting Ukraine. Could this be an attempt at blackmailing the one or the other into doing something extremely desperate and stupid? Any thoughts on that would be appreciated.

Posted by: Dr M | Apr 9 2023 21:17 utc | 83

@Milites, #53:
Thanks for pointing out that UK has, since 1999, devoted 4% of its budgetary spending to defense spending. I didn’t know that has been the case, and I wonder what have they bought for that money spent. I for one can’t see anything useful. The sense I get is that UK is slipping badly in the eyes of the world, economically as well as militarily, since the 1970’s.
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Apr 9 2023 20:27 utc | 76
No, its only been 2%

Posted by: JohninMK | Apr 9 2023 21:19 utc | 85

Last week Congress tried to push through an extremely repressive law, aptly named the RESTRICT Act, which would allow the censorship-industrial complex to use the criminal justice system to shut down free speech, instead of just relying on the cancelling and banning they have been using for the last 7 years.
Rand Paul blocked the attempt to fast track it.
So this week Top Secret documents were released about war plans in Ukraine.
Now the self-identified “legitimate” media is going bonkers screaming about all the harm that has been done, and the Pentagon has announced that it is going after the bloggers who printed it.
As if the Ukrainian military was doing fine before someone leaked the plans.
As if the Russians read bloggers to find out military strategy.
Coincidence? I think not.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Apr 9 2023 21:33 utc | 87

Eighthman | Apr 9 2023 20:59 utc | 80
here is a link to the article.. thanks for the heads up!
Europe must resist pressure to become ‘America’s followers,’ says Macron

Posted by: james | Apr 9 2023 21:44 utc | 89

Russian intelligent assets and surveillance is very sophisticated….they know exactly what is going on….any leaks authentic or fabricated are irrelevant to Russian operational plans. The Ukrainian grandiose plans are designed for public consumption and are fabricated. If the information was credible it would be accurate. The casualty figures are the litmus test in my opinion. I also suspect the plans are contrived by some narcissist online influencer blogtard using common sense and open source information and U.S is trying to capitalize on the confusion and public distraction..or hastily released by Ukrainian sources to form an viable excuse not to conduct the ill fated offensive operations they are being compelled to initiate.I think the general rule of thumb here still stands true…don’t believe a word coming out of U.S NATO or mainstream medias mouth..or side of mouth. The actual war is being waged against the Western public in conjunction with operations against Russia….we in the west have just had the largest PSYOP operation unleashed on us in the last few years and the misinformation war is continuing. Western supplied weapons systems will not only show up in Syria and Lebanon but also on the Mexican black market…they will come across the U.S border in time… asymmetrical warfare

Posted by: Joe | Apr 9 2023 21:47 utc | 91

To be clear
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Emf4agOD6xY

Posted by: Lalita | Apr 9 2023 21:49 utc | 93

Posted by: Ian2 | Apr 9 2023 20:12 utc | 71
From what I heard in Mercouris’ video, and with the caveat that I have no idea how Alex got his readout, Macron committed the cardinal son of diplomacy by refusing to take “no” for an answer when badgering Xi on Ukraine.
Mercouris also made the point that Macron managed to piss of both the Chinese and the neocons who control Germany and the Uk (I prefer to call them war whores.)
Macron failed to accomplish any geopolitical objectives although as you pointed out he may have made progress in economic ones.
Again I have no idea how accurate this readout is, but I tend to like Mercouris and he seems quite intelligent if garrulous.

Posted by: Chris | Apr 9 2023 22:03 utc | 95

Sanctions, what sanctions?
“Russia’s oil sales notched a new record last week, despite western sanctions and promises of reductions in output. Russian oil exports rose to 4.13 million barrels a day in the last week of March, up 1 million barrels a day from the prior week, according to Bloomberg data”.

Posted by: Paul GV | Apr 9 2023 22:15 utc | 97

A

Am I the only one finding it utterly bizarre that Western intelligence would believe for a second that 97% of the Russian army is currently deployed and/or dedicated to Ukraine?… The statement, which reinforces Ben Wallace’s February remark, is beyond absurd. Is this pure incompetence, which I seriously doubt, the continuation of a psyop operation to discredit the Russian army?.. I am perplex I reckon….

Good question – All here MoAs want to know an answer for that –
But, You do not have an answer – just like me – today- so I cannot contribute facts today, rather than having from current vids shot by Wagners and MoD Officials ..
But may think once more this fact :
This is not only a war on Ukrainian grounds, but “this” is a more likely a war among “West vs. East”, the EU (even Macron) between..
The more the US/UK will start a new provocations delivery of Uranium-spec ammunition, the more the “East” will react to those announcements. That’s for sure. How it would look that respnse, You have to discuss pls. here further ..
Fazit:
The best way is:
1st: Kill UR Soldiers and Mercs from Poland/GER/UK/CAN etc. as many as you (RF) can
2nd: Be further very calm to safe on your (RF) men-powered machines, but strengthen your (RF) AV and SAT capabilities!
Ok – just have done – but US recon is not asleep .., ref last drones attacks on Crimeria Bridge .. !?
Best – Have a Christ like Easter ..
Posted by: Ajax | Apr 9 2023 14:30 utc | 15

Posted by: spare_truth | Apr 9 2023 22:21 utc | 99