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April 6, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-83
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One of these leaked classified documents was posted earlier re the NATO/US counter-offensive demanded of the OUN-B Nazi’s by ~Apr30’23.
Here (Docu x 5)(Key Doco no 3) & here (Docu x 1). TG, browse-able Open(Public). Ctrl + to zoom, etc.
What follows is a breakdown & multi-part analysis of this AFU ‘Counter-Offensive’ force, a hodgepodge Frankenstein monster incohesive under powered conglomeration:
Using arms most of which were supplied from the United States, Great Britain, Germany, Poland, Canada, France, Estonia, Italy, Slovakia, The Netherlands, and Australia. The deliveries as of 1 April are mostly complete, though not in toto prior to late Apr’23. Ad-hoc severely abbreviated training was mostly completed in the second half of March (3-4 weeks).
21st Detached Mechanized Brigade of the AFU
– CRV(T) family armored combat vehicles – 20 units
– Senator armored vehicle – 30 units
– Husky armored vehicle – 20 units
– T-64BV tank – 30 units (Tank BN)
– FH-70 155 mm howitzer – 10 units (Two Batterys(-)
32nd Detached Mechanized Brigade of the AFU
– armored personnel carrier (MRAP) International MaxxPro – 90 units
– T-72 tank – 10 units (Tank Coy(-))
– 20 units Abrams M1 tank (In Theater ? Contracted to be manufactured by Sep29’23 ?)
– 122 mm D-30 howitzer – 12 units (Two Batterys)
33rd Detached Mechanized Brigade of the AFU
– armored personnel carrier (MRAP) International MaxxPro – 90 units
– Leopard 2A4 tank – 18 units (Tank Coy(+))
– 14 Leopard 2A6 tanks (Tank Coy)
– M119 105 mm howitzer – 12 units (Two Batterys) (Short ranged, low power & effectiveness, limite counter-batterry capability)
37th Brigade of Marines of the AFU
– armored personnel carrier (MRAP) Mastiff (Cougar) – 60 units
– AMX-10 tank – 14 units (Light Armored Car Coy)
– 16 units Abrams M1 tank (In Theater ? Contracted to be manufactured by Sep29’23 ?)
– D-30 122 mm howitzer – 12. (Two Batterys)
– BMP Senator – 30 units
47th Independent Mechanized Brigade of the AFU
– BMP M2A2 – 99 units
– T-55S tank – 28 units Tank BN(-)
– 155 mm SAU M-109 – 12 units (Two Batterys)
– 12 units of 122 mm D-30 howitzer (Two Batterys)
82nd Detached Airborne Assault Brigade of the AFU
– APC Stryker – 90 units
– BMP Marder – 40 units
– 14 Challenger 2 tanks (Tank Coy)
– M119 105 mm howitzer – 24 units (Four Batterys) (Short ranged, low power & effectiveness, limite counter-batterry capability)
95th Detached Airborne Assault Brigade of the AFU
– BMP-1/2 – 90 units
– T-64BV tank – 13 units (Tank Coy(-))
– 122 mm SAU 2S1 “Gvozdika” – 10 units (Two SPH Batterys(-))
– 17 units Abrams M1 tank (In Theater ? Contracted to be manufactured by Sep29’23 ?)
– 12 pieces of 155 mm SAU AS90 (Two SPH Batterys)
118th Independent Mechanized Brigade of the AFU
– APC M113 – 90 units
– T-72 tank – 28 units (Tank BN(-))
– 155 mm SAU M109 – 6 units (SPH Battery)
– FH-70 155 mm howitzer – 10 units (Two SPH Batterys(-))
117th Detached Brigade of Territorial Defense of Ukraine
– Viking APC – 28 units
– APC XA-185 – 28 units
– BTR M113 – 10 units
– Armored car Senator – 10 units
– PT-91 tank – 31 units (T-72 variant Tank BN)
– D-30 122 mm howitzer – 12 units (Two Batterys)
More to follow …
François Hollande served as President of France from 2012 to 2017. Here he is confirming what Angela Merkel (German Chancellor November 2005 – December 2021) and Petro Poroshenko (President of Ukraine from 2014 to 2019) and have previously admitted
Russian pranksters Vovan and Lexus pretending to be Ukrainians forced Francois Hollande to tell the truth on the Minsk agreements.
“Everyone thought it was Putin who was playing for time.
No, we were playing for time to strengthen Ukraine”
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Apr 6 2023 15:09 utc | 2
indian punchline from today –
US sees in Finland’s NATO accession encirclement of Russia
“Not even propagandistically, anyone can say Finland has encountered a security threat from Russia. This is an act of motiveless malignity toward Russia on the part of the NATO, which of course invariably carries the imprimatur of the US, while being projected to the world audience as a sovereign choice by Finland against the backdrop of Russia’s intervention in Ukraine.”
Posted by: james | Apr 6 2023 15:11 utc | 3
nato is angry, himars attack on Kalininsky, Donetsk. So far 9 dead reported.
Also today, terrorist attack in Ingushetia with dead people and some of attackers escaped, a 30cm spy drone was shot down near a factory for Tor and S300-S400 in Moscow region. In Bryansk an attack failed with 20 nazis dead, but another attack using artillery on a medical building managed to kill some people inside. And multiple churches burned and demolished in Ukr.
Posted by: rk | Apr 6 2023 15:28 utc | 4
4 februari 2022:
”The only clear statement by President Putin of the consequences of a failure by NATO to comply with Russian demands regarding Ukraine is that Moscow will resort to ‘military-technical’ measures. ”
4 februari 2023:
”As we have warned on multiple occasions, the Russian Federation will have to respond with military-technical, as well as other measures in order to address national security threats arising from Finland joining NATO.”
Grim days ahead for us scandinavians…
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Apr 6 2023 15:42 utc | 5
@ Posted by: Outraged | Apr 6 2023 15:07 utc | 1
Thanks!
For the 47th,
So it looks like they matched Bradley’s with the T55 tanks. Then added some M109’s and then towed D30’s, which use different ammo, adding to supply requirements.
There goes all that “NATO std training” out the door. Bradley’s train with M-1’s, a much faster and more powerful (range and Ph) than a T55. M109 is a decent, yet slow howitzer. Probably 75 2 ton (or larger) trucks needed for IOC for movement and supply.
Every one of these is the same. Mixing NATO w/non NATO, US based with euro based (different tools needed for maintenance), and different aged technologies.
And listing M1 and M2 that aren’t even there yet.
And this is all supposed to be attacking in the next few weeks.
OK….
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Apr 6 2023 15:47 utc | 6
BAKHMUT:
The central areas of Bakhmut continued to fall to the Wagner and Russian forces at a rapid rate this week.
As more territory within Bakhumt falls, the remaining Ukrainian forces have less room to maneuver.
This means the Russian artillery, mortar, missile, rocket, and other firepower can become more concentrated. This makes the Russian meat grinder even more deadly.
I suspect that the rate of shelling is also going to increase as the end of Ukrainian occupation of Bakhmut winds down.
The combination of increased rate of shelling with less space will increase the rate of damage to both Ukrainian troops and their military hardware.
Posted by: young | Apr 6 2023 15:47 utc | 7
BroncoBilly | Apr 6 2023 15:47 utc | 6
The most interesting thing is that someone spent time to edit that page layout, make it look pretty in a powerpoint presentation. There must be a lot of free time for some people.
Posted by: rk | Apr 6 2023 15:54 utc | 8
@ young,
I think as you force enemy into smaller areas, you need LESS shelling, as it becomes more effective. Each round has a higher potential for possible KIA than in a dispersed setting.
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Apr 6 2023 15:55 utc | 9
English Outsider asked on the old thread and I’m responding here.
Any Germans around here at the moment? Tell me what’s happening! Pretty well an entire country determinedly looking the other way. None daring to ask why Scholz isn’t doing what any normal leader would do: raising hell until he finds out who blew up his gas pipes.
I’m German and I’ll share my view.
You use the word “leader”, but (I may be stating the obvious) Scholz isn’t capable of leading a country and he doesn’t have to be, either. He is being led more than anything else. You may have seen the press conference where Biden said there would be no Nord Stream 2 if Russia invaded Ukraine, Scholz standing next to him and saying nothing. It is well known that Scholz helped a bank commit tax fraud on a large scale and the minute he stops being obedient, he’s going to prison and that is not what he wants. What he wants is to continue to be a spineless POS that receives orders from Washington. Show me one independent decision this guy has made. He doesn’t wipe his butt without asking permission from the U.S. State Department first.
As for regular Germans, I think most of them realize there is no point in trying to get a Vichy government to do anything against the wishes of their masters. Up to a million Germans were protesting against nuclear weapons in Germany back in the 80s and in the 2010s the German parliament demanded all American nukes removed from German soil, but they’re still there. People are not going to take to the streets to demand an investigation into the Nord Stream bombing, insinuating our “partner and ally” carried out an act of terrorism against its own protectorate. What a crazy conspiracy theory. Besides, so what if the Americans blew up Nord Stream? We’ll just get LNG from the U.S. at 5x the price instead of Russian gas. The effects on the economy have only started materializing and many people still have plenty of money in their pockets, so it’s easy to say life goes on. The frog pot hasn’t reached the boiling point yet. Besides, Germans put up with more crap than, for example, French people.
Posted by: Hamburger | Apr 6 2023 15:55 utc | 10
best news today “Bakhhmut sparkling wine factory under control”!
finally
see more great news by Mercouris, 19 h ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwtBksB4tNg
and 50 min. ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOrX1uYrXDE
Mercouris has to leave his house for a few days but will try to post nonetheless
Posted by: AG | Apr 6 2023 15:57 utc | 11
Posted by: Outraged | Apr 6 2023 15:07 utc | 1
Assuming these are accurate, which I doubt, I wonder if the 117th TR is slated for Kherson. The RM’s found their Vikings (little camels) were useful in the Green Zone in Afghanistan.
The rest of it is a logisticians nightmare, with six types of main gun round alone! Coupled with the fact that any platform that suffers anything heavier than light damage, will be out of the fight ( little to no battlefield recovery and repair) or have its capabilities severely reduced, and with little to no replacement crews available for the unavoidable attrition.
Also, wonder how many disguised bladders in civilian cars will be needed to fuel this caravan from the NATO come-back tour. Pure fantasy. It’s almost as if they are trying to get the Ukrainian’s to launch an offensive that is doomed to fail, end the war without few recriminations (plucky Ukrainians gave it their best shot, as did we) and extricate themselves from this mess.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 6 2023 15:58 utc | 12
Baltic States Population in millions (+Finland+)- Wikipedia as source!
Latvia 1.842 -27% RUS/BEL
Estoni 1.357 -24% R&B
Lithua 2.840 – 6% R&B
Total R&B in Baltics = 993,420
Finland – 5,567,868 = no Russians and no culture (Finland indigenous people Sami 9,350)
I’m in tears from laughing
Posted by: Angelo | Apr 6 2023 15:58 utc | 13
Followup to Outraged | Apr 6 2023 15:07 utc | 1
Previously assessed AFU had likely only two cohesive Combat Effective trained & equipped brigades remaining in their Strategic reserve. Wrong, as at 1Apr they had 3. 😉
Those 3 Reserve Brigades, combined with the newly raised & equipped 9 Brigades above will comprise the 12 Brigade ‘Counter-Offensive’ force. 6 Brigades are ready, the other 3 will not be before Apr30’23. Spain’s 10 Leopard IIs are already unavailable due serviceability.
These nine Brigades are freshly raised formations, lacking cohesiveness given inexperienced & under-trained manpower unused & inexperienced in combat operations as formed units at even the Platoon level let alone Brigade. Two of the nine are low value Territorials, 117th & 18th almot certainly comprised of unmotivated, untrained low morale & commitment press-ganged conscripts. …
In toto the 9 Brigades are intended to contain 253 MBTs, 381 IFVs/APCs, 480 Armored motor vehicles, 147 artillery tubes & 571 HMMWVs.
Which actually constitutes one under-strength Tank Brigade(-) & one under-strength Mechanized Brigade(-). All other vehicles are effectively limited to nil Combat Power. Little more than ‘Battle Taxis’, unprotected transport, most wheeled.
The majority of the 147 artillery tubes are smaller & shorter range & power calibers, US 105mm & ex-soviet 122mm. The majority towed. The 122mm shells are in critically short supply, as are rounds for the AMX-10RC light armored cars & any Leopard Is(not reported) 105mm guns.
Hence the actual combat power & combat effectiveness of these nine Brigades is in reality little more than a reinforced Tank Brigade & a reinforced Mechanized Brigade with limited ability to project Combat Force given the MBTs & IFVs are diluted & dispersed among the Nine Brigades, lacking true off-road maneuverability & major dependence on majority light, shorter ranged, immobile & vulnerable Artillery tubes with critical shell shortages.
Illusory. No Airforce & no Air Defense Systems.
A capable ‘Counter-Offensive’ force, only on paper, in theory only, given the RF OPForce with Theater AIR/ADS dominance & available fielded formations (~510,000 ie 50 Division equivalents available, excluding more than 50 more RF Regular standing Divisions outside Theater, in heavily fortified layered defensive positions prepared in depth, up too four defense lines deep …
All, ALL other Brigades and Battalions in AFU in Ukraine Theater are assessed by NATO as ‘Depleted’, ie incohesive, minimum to limited combat effectiveness, due under-strength, insufficiently trained, under/ill-equipped &/or reconstituted from shattered/bled-white former formations.
Hence, AFU Army as a whole, given this NATO classified assessment & breakdown, has ceased to exist as a Combat Effective capable combined arms manuever force.
My new favorite “Hide the pain”-meme: https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1643596787423248386
Posted by: Apollyon | Apr 6 2023 16:10 utc | 15
Paul Greenwood – in the previous open thread I raised the question of why Scholz is doing nothing much to get to the bottom of the North Stream sabotage. I agree with the first part of your reply here but am not sure about the second:-
“You really don’t understand the German voting system which is a disaster……….Germans are incandescent but the system was designed to stop “populism”. ie. keep control within party system”.
I agree that the German voting system does sometimes allow a minority party – in this case the Greens – to be king maker and thus have more influence in the coalition than is warranted by the election results. But in this case, since Merz is even more hard line than Scholz, would that have made any difference?
The North Stream puzzle has only two alternative solutions. That Scholz knew of the sabotage in advance. Or that he didn’t.
If he knew about it in advance then that means he gave permission. Why would he do that?
If he did not know about it in advance, then why is he not doing what any national leader would usually do – moving heaven and earth to get to the bottom of the affair?
In neither case is his conduct consonant with the accepted story of the Ukrainian war.
………………
As for the Germans being incandescent, I see no evidence of this in my own circle in Germany. Nor with the politicians. I watched an important Wagenknecht speech recently and the North Steam sabotage was not mentioned. Have Merz or Habeck raised the matter? Not that I know of.
I’m also beginning to be more and more sceptical of the usual line that Scholz was tumbled into this affair by Washington. I put this to a German correspondent – again on Colonel Lang’s site:-
“The US is far less secretive than Europe. Partly because it’s a more open society, partly because the furious partisan political struggles in the US lead to the exposure of more information but mainly, I believe, just because it’s so much more powerful. When the giant moves, we notice and ask questions. When the small fry move, there’s less there to notice – and in our more secretive societies, maybe nothing much to catch public attention at all.
“Given this disparity it’s easy to fall in with the story one sees so often. The US the big bad dog, the European poodles trotting obediently behind, pausing sometimes to grab their own prey but generally more innocent of evil intention themselves.
“From this develops a victim story. We see it particularly in Germany. Germany is subject to US domination, has been since WW2, and has had no choice but to reluctantly follow on behind the big dog. So many think, and think elsewhere in Europe too
“A handy victim story. Offloads the guilt. We Europeans are the virtuous who have been led astray. Get shot of this irksome US domination and left to ourselves, we will be good.
“Utter and complete nonsense (Ed.). I believe a more accurate picture is that of the European power centres expertly leveraging US financial and military dominance to pursue objectives they would have pursued in any case had they had the military power themselves to do so. Obama dropped a hint or two about that and though he doesn’t usually, I think in this case he was telling the truth.”
Given the pre-2014 history I believe the EU (my own country included) was more responsible for the Ukrainian disaster than the Washington neocons. As for the Maidan itself, we all focus on Mrs Nuland and her cookies and forget that Lady Ashton was also playing a significant role at that time.
Scholz, I believe, was not the new boy on the block rushed into this disaster by Biden. He was continuing a policy long established by Mrs Merkel. Looking at the Russophobia exhibited in Northern Europe as a whole, which is far more vicious than anything we see in the States, I’m moving over to the belief that in seeking to “break Russia”, Scholz was more in tune with his electorate than most of that electorate would care to admit.
Posted by: English Outsider | Apr 6 2023 16:16 utc | 16
Minimum, incomplete, low-ball KIA(only)(FEBA only) 325+ … Translated:
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation (06.04.2023)
◽️ In the Kupyansk direction, assault and army aviation strikes and artillery fire of the “Western” grouping of troops defeated enemy units in the areas of Dvurechnaya, Peschanoye and Masyutovka in the Kharkiv region. In addition, in the areas of Novoselovskoye, Artemivka of the Luhansk People’s Republic and Pershotravneve of the Kharkiv region, the actions of three sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the Ukrainian armed forces were suppressed. During the day more than 50 Ukrainian servicemen, two armored fighting vehicles, two vehicles, as well as a US-made AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar station were destroyed in this direction.
◽️ In addition, today at about 8:30 a.m., units of the Western Military District State Border Guard together with a border guard unit of the Federal Security Service of Russia’s Bryansk Oblast Border Guard Department thwarted an attempt to enter the territory of the Russian Federation by a sabotage and reconnaissance group of over 15 fighters near the settlement of Sluchaevsk, Bryansk Oblast.
💥 The enemy was defeated by artillery fire of the Western Military District. The sabotage group was dispersed and, after suffering losses, withdrew to the territory of Ukraine. There were no casualties among Russian servicemen.
◽️ In the Krasno-Limansky direction, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems of the Center Group of Forces hit AFU units in the areas of Chervonaya Dibrova and Chervonopopovka settlements of the Luhansk People’s Republic. Up to 80 Ukrainian servicemen, two armored fighting vehicles, three vehicles, a Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer, a Nona self-propelled mortar, and D-20 and D-30 howitzers were destroyed.
◽️ In the Donetsk direction, more than 140 Ukrainian servicemen were destroyed during active actions of units, strikes of operational and tactical aviation, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems of the “Southern” group of troops during the day, three armored combat vehicles, eight vehicles, a Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery unit, Gvozdika and Acacia self-propelled howitzers, a D-20 howitzer, and a US-made AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar station.
💥 In addition, a warehouse of rocket and artillery weapons of the 107th AFU Reaction Brigade was destroyed near the village of Sergeyevka in the Donetsk People’s Republic.
◽️ On the South Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya directions, operational and tactical aviation strikes and artillery fire of the Vostok Group of Forces hit AFU units near the settlements of Ugledar in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Marfopol and Zahornoye in the Zaporizhzhya region.
💥 In addition, an attempt by an enemy assault group to counterattack in the direction of Vodyane and Nikolskoye settlements of the Donetsk People’s Republic was foiled. During the day, up to 35 Ukrainian servicemen, two armored combat vehicles, two pickup trucks, as well as D-20 and D-30 howitzers were destroyed in these directions.
◽️ In the Kherson direction, up to 20 Ukrainian servicemen, two vehicles and an Acacia self-propelled howitzer were destroyed in the course of the day.
💥 Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery of groups of troops (forces) of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation during the day hit 92 artillery units of the AFU at firing positions, manpower and equipment in 128 areas.
💥 The command post of the 110th mechanized brigade of the AFU was hit near Avdeevka settlement of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
💥 The air defense forces intercepted eleven HIMARS rockets.
💥 In addition, eleven Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed in the areas of Tavolzhanka (Kharkiv Region), Kreminna and Kovalevka (Luhansk People’s Republic), Nikolskoye, Novoselovka and Peski (Donetsk People’s Republic).
***
◽️ The Kiev regime deliberately destroys its servicemen with artillery fire to prevent attempts to abandon their positions and retreat under the onslaught of Russian forces.
◽️ On April 5 this year, units of the “Southern” grouping of troops in the vicinity of Avdeevka, Donetsk People’s Republic, were actively engaged in capturing the enemy’s stronghold.
◽️ During the battle, the commander of the unit of the 53rd mechanized brigade of the AFU that was at the stronghold appealed to the Russian command via an open radio channel, stating that his unit of 14 men voluntarily laid down their weapons and wished to surrender.
◽️ The Russian group suspended combat operations and completely ceased fire in order to ensure the safe exit of the Ukrainian soldiers from the occupied stronghold.
◽️ Given the dark time of day, the Ukrainian servicemen were placed in a dugout until morning for subsequent removal to the Russian grouping’s rear area.
◽️ At night, Ukrainian artillery deliberately opened a barrage of fire on the dugout where the surrendered Ukrainian servicemen were located. About three hundred large-caliber shells were fired.
◽️ As a result of the deliberate strike by the AFU artillery, all fourteen surrendering Ukrainian servicemen were killed.
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed (losses over previous 24hrs(+?)):
406 aircraft, (Daily avg 1.0)
228 helicopters, (Daily avg 0.6)
3,684(+11) unmanned aerial vehicles, (Daily avg 9.1)
415 surface-to-air missile systems, (Daily avg 1.0)
8,554(+9) tanks and other armored combat vehicles, (Daily avg 21.1)
1,078 multiple rocket launchers, (Daily avg 2.7)
4,515(+11) field artillery and mortars, (Daily avg 11.2) and
9,319(+17) special military vehicles. (Daily avg 23.1)
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Apr 6 2023 15:47 utc | 6
See also the notes section: they are seriously short on 122mm ammo for the D30s…
Posted by: Zet | Apr 6 2023 16:22 utc | 18
Outraged from previous thread–
Thanks for parsing some of the key figures cited during the Security Council meeting. Did you catch Putin’s words to the US and EU ambassadors? I posted Putin’s entire address on the week in review thread.
psychohistorian from previous thread–
Thanks for the Xinhua reports of Xi putting Macron and EU in their place. Macron’s Master will never agree to what Xi said must be done; so, all the visit accomplished was to show the world that Macron and EU have no independence from the Empire.
Meanwhile, we have coverage of protests on Taiwan related to Tsai’s talks with McCarthy in California, “People in Taiwan island lash out at Tsai’s meeting with McCarthy as ‘bringing wolf into room'”. I suspect the mainland has learned some color revolution tricks:
On Thursday, one day after Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with McCarthy, dozens of political and civil groups in the island started a joint movement to condemn the provocation and poured out indignation with Tsai, for she “betrayed people in the island” and sacrificed their lives and security to play as a chess piece in the US proxy war, according to a statement the Global Times got from one of the initiators – the Cross-Straits Peace Forum.
Tsai’s and McCarthy’s meeting is “bringing a wolf into the room,” which is the root to ignite a new round of cross-Straits crisis, said the joint statement.
Under the excuse of “transit,” Tsai visited the US and met with McCarthy and other American politicians, which severely violated the one-China principle, pushed anti-China collusion and intentionally provoked the Chinese mainland to deteriorate the cross-Straits situation. Tsai’s move is intended to cooperate with US politicians’ destruction plan of the island to contain China and drag the island into a conflict, read the statement.
The secessionists in the island are soliciting US support and interference to contain China. People in the island have a better understanding of US hegemony and its purpose of using separatists to incite regional tensions and make profits for its military-industrial complex and politicians, Wang Wu-lang, secretary-general of the Cross-Straits Peace Forum, told the Global Times on Thursday.
Today, prior to the meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State of Russia and Belarus, Putin met with the leaders of the four new regions. Outraged provided some of their outcomes on the previous thread.
After the Credentialing Ceremony was over yesterday, Lavrov had a Q&A exchange with Rossiya 1 TV:
Question:We do not interfere in the affairs of the United States, but never in history has a former American president been tried [Trump].
Sergey Lavrov: You said yourself that we don’t interfere. They’re fine without us.
Question: Today, your deputy said that we are actually in a hot phase of war with the United States. At the same time, today the American ambassador presents his credentials. How does all this relate?
Sergey Lavrov: We are really in the hot phase of the war. Because the Ukrainian Nazis are fighting with American weapons. The US administration threatens to deliver more and more long-range and deadly systems every time.
But I believe that relations should be maintained. At least, we do not lose hope that the Americans will wake up their minds and resume some kind of dialogue. We’ll see. We don’t have long to wait. [My Emphasis]
Lavrov’s wit: Russia doesn’t need to meddle in USA because it’s doing fine destabilizing itself.
Never forget what the US did when the now beloved ICC wanted to investigate US war crimes in Afghanistan. The US has threatened
📌 Impose sanctions on the ICC.
📌Impose sanctions on countries assisting the ICC.
📌 Arrest judges and prosecutors of the ICC!
The US has also passed laws giving them the right to invade the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands if any American is arrested or detained there!
Link : Donbass Devushka
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Apr 6 2023 16:30 utc | 20
Today’s first Battlefield update is up
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/battlefield-update-2023-04-06-1
If you haven’t seen Tucker Carlson’s segment on the US Dollar, it is here. It seems to be the first real wake up call that will be seen widely.
A Skeptic is a free newsletter.
@ BroncoBilly | Apr 6 2023 15:47 utc | 6
It’s laughable & delusional. Furthermore the actual completed training of each ‘Brigade’ ranges from 14% to 69%, most in the 20%-40% band at end Feb’23. Actual Equipment TO&E fulfilled ranges from 0% (Territorials) to 70%, again mostly in the 30%-50% band at end Feb’23. By end of April given over the past & coming weeks RF has been destroying parcels of the MBTs & Arty buildup beyond FEBA by RuAF & missile strikes every few days ?
@ Milites | Apr 6 2023 15:58 utc | 12
The rest of it is a logisticians nightmare, with six types of main gun round alone! Coupled with the fact that any platform that suffers anything heavier than light damage, will be out of the fight ( little to no battlefield recovery and repair) or have its capabilities severely reduced, and with little to no replacement crews available for the unavoidable attrition.
Also, wonder how many disguised bladders in civilian cars will be needed to fuel this caravan from the NATO come-back tour. Pure fantasy.
Indeed, concur. 🙁
Given that one or more of these nine incomplete Brigades, or from the 3 Brigade AFU Strategic Reserve, were thrown into Bahkmut & expended during Mar’23 ?
Last ride to Valhalla ?
[ Album ]
The Russian Air Force destroyed an electronic reconnaissance station in the Chernihiv region.
On April 4, Su-35 fighter jets carried out two airstrikes with guided aerial bombs on the village of Pechenyugi in Chernihiv Region, which is 25 kilometers from the Russian border. It became known that the victims of the strike were volunteers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Kateryna Yushchenko, and an operator of the radio-electronic reconnaissance of the radio interception and direction finding station, Alexander Zhuk, according to Ukrainian publications. Some media specify that a military unit was hit by an air strike, and the total number of dead is more than four people.
The destruction of a radar reconnaissance station in Chernihiv Region is a clear example of the fact that the Russian Air Force is capable of thinning the Ukrainian army’s rear at the tactical level by hitting command, reconnaissance and communications points, since the Ukrainian air defense system is unable to intercept the gliding bombs.
@Masno/TG
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 6 2023 16:36 utc | 23
”As we have warned on multiple occasions, the Russian Federation will have to respond with military-technical, as well as other measures in order to address national security threats arising from Finland joining NATO.”
Grim days ahead for us scandinavians…
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Apr 6 2023 15:42 utc | 5
I mentioned this in a previous thread, but historically the need to secure borders against external aggression has indeed been a main driver of Russian expansion (despite it being so often mocked as hypocrisy, it is true).
Right now with submarines and intermediate-range missiles being the primary first strike threats, this means that Russia has to control the whole of Scandinavia to be fully secure.
Norway starting way back in the Cold War days and now Sweden and Finland are essentially betting on the US empire never collapsing and always protecting them.
They had the option of staying neutral and not being under any threat, but they just can’t help themselves, the primitive Russophobia runs too deep. So they made the strategic mistake of making that bet.
It may pay off, but the fact is the US is on the other side of an ocean while Russia is right next door.
We should also always remember how ugly things got in WWII, and how many areas were very successfully completely ethnically cleansed in the course of it. As the situation globally gets really desperate (and it looks like it is happening faster than I expected all this time), what is now unthinkable may become reality. It won’t be the mild mannered very cautious Putin in power forever…
Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 6 2023 16:46 utc | 24
“…I suspect the mainland has learned some color revolution tricks:..” karlofi.
Thanks for the post, it is very important.
I have never believed that the people of Taiwan want to fight, or rent out their home to be a battlefield, in order to become a brothel for America.
China will win this struggle the way that was always planned-and explained regularly- namely, by waiting for the people of Taiwan to ask for re-unification.
All the US dabbling in the issue has simply made that process more urgent and, likely, brought it much closer.
It’s exactly the same as the long campaign to force China, Russia and Iran into an anti-US alliance. Now the plan seems to be to accelerate the re-unification of China and increase the tendency of East Asian nations to look to China for leadership and infrastructure investment.
I’m beginning to wonder whether Washington DC has not been taken over by a secret conspiracy of ultra isolationists, working constantly to sever the country’s relationships and alliances with other states. If so they are doing a marvellous job- Europe is going to have to wake up soon and recognise that nothing but disaster can come from their alliance with the US, even if it takes 20% unemployment and 100 euro a litre gasoline to convince them. Latin America is moving fast and as far as it can get from Uncle Sam.
JQ Adams is back, Monroe is on the way out.
Posted by: bevin | Apr 6 2023 16:55 utc | 25
@ karlof1 | Apr 6 2023 16:24 utc | 19
Thanks to you & psychohistorian. Most welcome. Cheers & prost!
@ unimperator | Apr 6 2023 16:36 utc | 23
AFU claims RuAF is launching ~20 precision guided FAB500/1500 glide bombs per day now, and many times that in FAB500/1500 dumb iron bombs.
RF has refined, simplified & optimized their wartime glide bomb add-on kits for mass production their re cost/utility/effectiveness in only a matter of weeks. FAB500’s now reported at stand-off range of 40-50km & FAB1500’s 70-80km. Launch height of 570m – 12000m at speeds of 500km/h to 1180 km/h.
Wouldn’t want to be AFU.
And multiple churches burned and demolished in Ukr.
Posted by: rk | Apr 6 2023 15:28 utc | 4
Details ?
Posted by: Exile | Apr 6 2023 17:03 utc | 27
Posted by: Outraged | Apr 6 2023 16:35 utc | 22
Having written my dissertation on the feasibility of businesses using NATO operational planning templates, I can only conclude that, either the people responsible for this farrago are diversity hires, or the West is getting ready to administer the kill-shot to Ukraine’s armed forces. The plans being bandied around seem a perfect, what-not-to-do exercise that I doubt it’s an accidental state of affairs, but a cynical exercise that is really about extraction, and the political survival of the initiators.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 6 2023 17:03 utc | 28
I guess Zelensky have received an update from his master: “Ukraine will talk with China only from a position of strength”.
“He had a chance.”
Zelensky said he would no longer take a call from Xi Jinping.
“French colleague Mr. Macron informed me that during his visit to Beijing he persuaded Xi Jinping to call me. Unfortunately, I have to upset him. The Chinese leader had a chance, he missed it. The time for peace negotiations has been lost, from now on Ukraine will talk with China only from a position of strength. I extended the hand of friendship, but now it is clenched into a fist,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/23306
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 6 2023 17:21 utc | 29
@ Outraged | Apr 6 2023 16:05 utc | 14
D’oh. Oops. Correction: Which actually constitutes one under-strength …
Which actually represents if not diluted/dispersed & reconstituted, two under-strength (pure) Tank Brigades(-) & three under-strength (IFV) Mechanized Brigades(-), the other four Brigades are little more than weak Motorized Infantry Brigades.
@ Milites | Apr 6 2023 17:03 utc | 28
Bit of both, but mostly senior command, Officer & NCO, is filled with incompetent dead wood, dead-enders, IMV. Why ? NCO’s & mid level Officers Captain/Major exited service during Afghan/Iraq conflicts due forced re-ups, Stop-Loss & forced multiple rotating tours over a 20 year period. Did not progress …
Hence Milley, Austin etc, and their subordinates. The dead wood that progressed ’cause they had no other viable options outside service. Regular, Reserve & National Guard. A generation of skills, experience, competency & knowledge lost, and subsequently not passed on or down.
Hence, this Shyte, IMV.
@ Norwegian | Apr 6 2023 17:21 utc | 29
Zelensky ? What a pathetic vacuous little shit.
Posted by: Will | Apr 6 2023 16:33 utc | 21
Thanks Will … got to admit I don’t particularly like Carlson, his hype and feigned outrage really pees me off, but I have to hold up my hands and say sometimes he does hit the mark and this is one such occasion
At one point, talking about Weimar Germany, he says
… but heres the thing that no body seems to remember. What brought on the economic collapse that set the world on fire? Does anyone remember that? Why did the German government blow up its own currency? Well simple. The German Government took on too much debt in order to pay for a pointless war.
Yes.
A pointless war did that. And if that sounds familiar its because its exactly what we have done repeatedly decades, we did it in Vietnam, we did it in Iraq, we did it in Afghanistan and every time we got away with it, because uniquely, we held the World’s reserve currency, but this time could be very very different. War against Russia will be the last war we can afford to fight.
And if that last line proves to be true then I for one will be grateful.
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Apr 6 2023 17:44 utc | 31
Sorry, if this is a repost. Wet dreams of some American think-tankers:
It’s Time to Bring Back the Polish-Lithuanian Union
[…] Imagine instead that, at the end of the war, Poland and Ukraine form a common federal or confederal state, merging their foreign and defense policies and bringing Ukraine into the EU and NATO almost instantly. The Polish-Ukrainian Union would become the second-largest country in the EU and arguably its largest military power, providing more than an adequate counterweight to the Franco-German tandem—something that the EU is sorely missing after Brexit. […]
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/26/its-time-to-bring-back-the-polish-lithuanian-union/
Posted by: Apollyon | Apr 6 2023 17:49 utc | 32
Details ?
Posted by: Exile | Apr 6 2023 17:03 utc | 27
Check any telegram channel, there are videos from today and last week. Zely demolishes or sets fire to churches, mostly Lvov – Kiev area, that aren’t schismatic and promises to rebuild his own, but probably it’ll be rebuilt Catholic or never. Seems like a simple method to force a percent of population to leave or arrest them as Russian supporters.
Posted by: rk | Apr 6 2023 17:57 utc | 33
@Outraged
Agreed … nice artillery “wish list”… they probably got 1/8 of it. No. My crystal ball reads the “greatest offensive ever” resulting in multiple 100s drones, air, and sea based strikes, coupled with artillery & massive cyberattacks… a massive hard hitting strike to decimate Crimea & Zaporozhia, maybe even create nuclear disaster b4 Russia responds.
This is more inline with US/NATO practices. Not hard to put a bunch of NATO air forces in Ukraine uniforms etc. Of course Poland will ground invade and attack Belarus to keep them busy.
Seriously, this is about Sevastable at this point & dragging NATO in.
Well good luck with all that NatoUkrainistan….
They know they cannot go toe to toe with Russia on an artillery war of attrition campaign any longer.
Russia & Belarus I’m guessing have complete intel of operation & Russia security council have already met & they have green light to “declare war” when assault starts.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Apr 6 2023 17:58 utc | 34
bevin @25–
Thanks for your reply. Yes, decades are happening in years or even half-years in some cases. I must point out that JQ Adams wrote what became known as the Monroe Doctrine as he penned the speech in which it’s contained, not in one or two paragraphs but in bits and pieces spread over its course. Of course, JQ Adams was a very conflicted man, much more like Jefferson than his father.
Meanwhile, “Ma Ying-jeou concludes mainland trip with farewell by senior Taiwan affairs official from mainland; constructive for peace, exchanges””
All issues at home can be properly resolved through consultation, and the Chinese mainland will facilitate exchanges and contacts between compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Straits, a senior mainland Taiwan affairs official told former chairperson of the Chinese Kuomintang (KMT) party Ma Ying-jeou on Thursday during a farewell dinner in Shanghai, the last stop of Ma’s maiden visit to the mainland before his return to Taiwan island on Friday.
Analysts said that Ma’s ancestral trip, which was actually far beyond ancestor worship, fully demonstrated the Taiwan compatriots’ identification with the history and culture of the Chinese nation and created a new scenario for peaceful cross-Straits exchanges in the post-epidemic era. This is in stark contrast to Tsai Ing-wen’s collusion with US politicians against the mainland and the destruction of cross-Straits relations.
Yes, the world needs to see more Ma-like people and no more Tsai creatures. And what difference can be discerned between McCarthy and Biden?
Did a Kinzhal missile kill 200 officers near Lviv?
A month ago some highly unreliable sources reported that one of the six Kinzhal missiles fired in a missile attack had hit some underground command and communications center near Lvov and killed up to 300 high officers, many of them from NATO countries. Most reliable commentators dismissed this claim as untrue, or at least unverified.
Yesterday PressTV of Iran interviewed Gilbert Doctorow and Don DeBar.
At the end of the video Gilbert Doctorow repeats the claim of 200 killed. This time however Doctorow refers to some Russian statement released the day before. Has anyone seen this statement?
***
Also yesterday, Don DeBar interviewed me about Finland’s NATO membership. At the beginning of the PressTV interview, Don DeBar quotes or borrows me about Finland’s air and rail links to China. Actually the links were severed already a year ago, when Finland abandoned neutrality and joined the Western war effort against Russia. NATO membership only means that these transport links are unlikely to be restored anytime soon.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 6 2023 18:07 utc | 36
@ Posted by: Outraged | Apr 6 2023 16:35 utc | 22
Each of these units will be 200 vehicles with support trucks.
At minimum spacing of 50 ft, that is 10,000 ft, or over 1.75 miles long. Over 3 km if your metric.
From previous day’s input, attack lanes will be toward
1. Vasylivka on left bank. Problem for them is a chock point at Hyrhorivka. A small bridge in a valley with a down slope leading to it. About 20 km from the front. Only 1 secondary bridge east of it, about the same distance. Either artillery or glide bombs could take both out quickly. Past that, there is another down slope into a valley (but no bridge) at Stepnohirsk. That is only 6 km from the front. Ruining the road there leaves an option of small roads leading to the east, then turning south and going overland to Kamianski. The same situation is there. A down slope into a bridge with no alternate. An overland route a few Km to the east is only possible through a forested gap in the ridge line, and then the river with no bridge. I don’t see how this is successful with adequate Russian artillery coverage combined with air support.
2. inland toward Tomak. It is 30 km from Orikhiv to Tomak. Through several ridge lines, back country roads very small settlements. About 10 km in you would be beyond any artillery support from the front, and vulnerable from air attacks. Deep State map shows 3 Russian units in the area, plus one at Tomak.
An unlikely success rate with dwindling chance of resupply every km you advance.
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Apr 6 2023 18:14 utc | 37
MI6 transmitted intelligence to the Office of the President and the General Staff that Russia continues to form reserves in the Crimea and the Rostov region, designed to repel the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. British intelligence believes that there are now 100,000 Russian troops and several thousand tanks and self-propelled guns near the borders with Ukraine, which do not take part in hostilities.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17190
Posted by: Down South | Apr 6 2023 18:18 utc | 38
ZH has a posting up with the title
Xi Pledges Active Peace Role After Macron Urges Him “Bring Russia To Its Senses”
the quote
French President Emmanuel Macron is currently in Beijing urging his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to “bring Russia to its senses” over the war in Ukraine.
The French leader has made it crystal clear that his purpose is to dissuade China from offering any level of support to Moscow, whether political, economic or military. “I know I can count on you to bring Russia to its senses and everyone to the negotiating table,” Macron told Xi during a bilateral meeting as part of the 3-day visit.
And then a NYT quote internal to the article
Xi Jinping “reiterated his willingness” to speak with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine “when conditions and time are right” but offered no timeline for such a conversation, the head of the European Commission said on Thursday after meeting with China’s top leader.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the commission, which is the European Union’s executive arm, told reporters that she had encouraged Mr. Xi to reach out to the Ukrainian president.
I think Marcon is delusional and we know that Ursula von der Leyen is both delusional and racist as can be.
The important part of this visit to me is the validation of Xi/China as the new global mediator
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 6 2023 18:24 utc | 39
Did a Kinzhal missile kill 200 officers near Lviv?
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 6 2023 18:07 utc | 36
Kinzhals are not used against targets that can be taken out otherwise (and Russia has plenty of means to take out other targets).
Kinzhal has two applications:
1) Nuclear first strike against targets in Europe
2) Bunker busting
So if Kinzhals were used (and that was confirmed by both Ukraine and Russia) then some bunkers were busted. Also, note that the initial information was for six Kinzhals having been fired. Was that against a single target or multiple? Is that even the correct number? No confirmation on that.
Nobody will provide any details though, on both sides, so it’s rather pointless to speculate. NATO will never admit its officers were demilitarized on Ukrainian soil.
Note, however, that the claims are growing over time. Initially it was a bunker 80 meters deep and dozens of KIAs, now you see claims about 130 meters and “up to 300”. That sort of inflation is a hallmark of the game of broken telephone that often gets played with speculative unreliable information.
But bunkers were busted for sure, simply because there is nothing else to use Kinzhals for in Ukraine.
P.S. Russia can actually demilitarize with a Kinzhal bunkers outside Ukraine too, and likely nobody will admit it. It will be barely detectable on radars at that speed, and it will happen deep underground somewhere away from populated areas.
It is not out of the question that some bunker is busted with a small nuke on that Kinzhal either. Below a certain yield, it will probably not even register as an out-of-the-ordinary earthquake. Again, nobody will admit anything, for obvious reasons.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 6 2023 18:40 utc | 40
Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 6 2023 16:46 utc | 24
“We should also always remember how ugly things got in WWII, and how many areas were very successfully completely ethnically cleansed in the course of it”
No surprise really. Nazism always comes out. Speak of SMO, freeing people who speak the same language, or wear the same colour of clothes…
Nazis will nazi! Too bad so many think that defending their home is bad. Well, like I said, nazis will be nazis 🙁
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Apr 6 2023 18:43 utc | 41
Posted by: Down South | Apr 6 2023 18:18 utc | 38
It will be sort of like the Kursk battle. The ukro-attack gets bogged down through multiple lines of defense and then a fresh wave hits them with a counter-attack. Also Ugledar is needed for a counter-offensive hitting the flank of the Ukro attack on the Zap line.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 6 2023 18:46 utc | 42
There is nothing I would be more excited to do, if I was a 2 week trained Ukrainian forced conscript, than to go to war in an AMX10 with shortage of ammo, or a semi-armoured Humvee, especially as the fuel is now carried in plastic vessels in civilian vans (as Russia has destroyed most of the official logistics system).
I would also be excited about how artillery shells would be transported, except I expect that won’t be a problem after the towed arty is destroyed.
If this document is real, then anyone with any sense would surrender, instead of sending men to be slaughtered in this museum-worthy junk heap.
Posted by: JulianJ | Apr 6 2023 18:49 utc | 43
China has diplomatically told NATO’s Stoltenberg to fuck off, RT reports:
NATO, not China, is responsible for the crisis in Ukraine and has no moral standing from which to criticize Beijing, foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said during a press conference on Thursday.
“The US and the military bloc of NATO shoulder unshirkable responsibilities on the Ukraine crisis,” Mao continued, arguing that NATO “is in no position to criticize or pressure China” to take its side.
“On the Ukraine crisis, China upholds an objective and just position. We have been advocating a political settlement of the crisis and working for talks for peace,” she explained, claiming that this was a strategy “supported by the vast majority of countries in the world.”
On Wednesday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned China to curtail its “growing alignment” with Moscow, accusing Beijing of “prop[ping] up Russia’s economy” and “refus[ing] to condemn Russia’s aggression.”
Supplying weapons to NATO’s arch-nemesis, Stoltenberg added, “would be a historic mistake, with profound implications.”
Beijing has repeatedly denied having any plans to provide lethal aid to Russia, which has likewise denied reports that it has requested military equipment from the Chinese. [My Emphasis]
I expected some sort of retort after earlier reading NATO’s false accusations. EU/NATO are very fortunate that China continues to conduct trade with them, otherwise stores would be even emptier, more people would be unemployed, and far more widespread agitation would be occurring. The small Eurasian peninsula known as Europe throughout most of its history been dependent on trade to further its economy–that’s known as geoeconomic dependency. Europe’s Neoliberal Parasites are trying to force Europe into doing something it can’t–get along by itself or with just the equally parasitic Outlaw US Empire as the one its dependent upon. The key is Europe cannot divest itself of its dependency; rather, it must make a choice, and as we see the one it’s made a very foolish, bordering on treasonous.
Posted by: Down South | Apr 6 2023 18:18 utc | 38
That’s akin to taking the prisoner to inspect the keenness of the guillotine’s blade, the day before you force him, at gunpoint, to lie down on its bench. Large scale mechanised actions are counter-productive, when attacking prepared defences, but against attacking columns, with two few units to provide flank security, they are in their element as will be their supporting fixed wing and rotary assets.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 6 2023 18:56 utc | 45
@ BroncoBilly | Apr 6 2023 18:14 utc | 37
Indeed. Prime massed defenseless targets for RuAF fast movers & Army attack helos, as well as RF Arty out to 40km.
AFU logistics train has been annihilated. Latest $2.9Billion Prez draw-down is mostly tankers, engineering & service/support vehicles. These 9-12 Brigades constitute 27,000 – 60,000 troops. How can they possibly achieve localized combat power superiority in the assault of 3:1 or better, without any air cover/support or ADS ?
Regardless, there is insufficient mass, no depth, no reserves, no follow-on echelon forces. And when the RF presses forward on other sectors of the FEBA concurrently or subsequently ? IF this ever actually goes ahead it will simply be a final suicidal & pointless throw of the dice, IMV.
I posted the comment below on the older Ukraine thread but want to repeat it here
ZH has a posting up with the title
Xi Pledges Active Peace Role After Macron Urges Him “Bring Russia To Its Senses”
A quote
French President Emmanuel Macron is currently in Beijing urging his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to “bring Russia to its senses” over the war in Ukraine.
The French leader has made it crystal clear that his purpose is to dissuade China from offering any level of support to Moscow, whether political, economic or military. “I know I can count on you to bring Russia to its senses and everyone to the negotiating table,” Macron told Xi during a bilateral meeting as part of the 3-day visit.
And then a NYT quote internal to the article
Xi Jinping “reiterated his willingness” to speak with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine “when conditions and time are right” but offered no timeline for such a conversation, the head of the European Commission said on Thursday after meeting with China’s top leader.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the commission, which is the European Union’s executive arm, told reporters that she had encouraged Mr. Xi to reach out to the Ukrainian president.
I think Marcon is delusional and we know that Ursula von der Leyen is both delusional and racist as can be.
The important part of this visit to me is the validation of Xi/China as the new global mediatorold Ukraine thread but want to repeat it here
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 6 2023 19:11 utc | 47
karlof1@35
You are too kind.
I was thinking about the “seek out monsters to destroy” rhetoric. Of course the truth is that the schizoid tradition of thinking/pretending that the government is atually helping protect people from European colonisation by colonising them itself goes back a long way-to the Monroe Doctrine (protecting Latin America from Latins), to the ‘liberation’ of half of Mexico, to the assistance to the independence movements in the Phillipines and Cuba (still going strong in both) to state building in Iraq, protecting Benghazi in Libya, to the long term ‘protection’ of Europe from…in effect itself.
But, still, it was a silly error of mine.
Posted by: bevin | Apr 6 2023 19:17 utc | 48
Posted by: Outraged | Apr 6 2023 18:56 utc | 45
One of the more decisive factors, I think, is what kind of air defense will be trailing the supposed ukro offensive. If not, air assets will have a field day on the open, vast fields. Last time I checked US was giving them the “Avenger” air defense systems (Stinger missiles mounted on some Humvee platform) and they are digging some Hawk air defense systems from 1970s. Maybe Nasams?
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 6 2023 19:18 utc | 49
In response to Posted by: Outraged | Apr 6 2023 16:05 utc | 14
Well you may well be correct, but I think caution would argue for the opposite view. The UAF have been fighting for over a year and have a lot of veteran and indeed motivated troops who are newly equipped. I consider that these reserve formations – rested, trained, equipped, motivated – should not be discounted.
The UAF is perhaps becoming two armies – a barely trained and badly equipped militia [currently being bled in Bakhmut and elsewhere]; and; a very effective offensive strike force of considerable size.
Now this strike force has indeed been thrown together and has a ridiculous mix of equipment. However this argues strongly for Russia to ride any storm and not let Ukraine amass a future strike force that is properly trained, equipped, structured and supplied. So the more the West supports Ukraine, the worse the outcome will be for that nation.
Posted by: marcjf | Apr 6 2023 19:28 utc | 50
If this document is real, then anyone with any sense would surrender, instead of sending men to be slaughtered in this museum-worthy junk heap.
Posted by: JulianJ | Apr 6 2023 18:49 utc | 42
Yes, indeed, except for that minor detail that you will be shot in the back if you try to do it.
Today the reports were about 14 AFU soldiers surrendering in Avdeevka and getting killed by their own precisely that way.
Also, recall how in the first month of the SMO there were a lot of videos of Ukrainians surrendering, and then having actual brotherly hugs with Russians. Unfortunately, I can’t find the videos, because all the search engines have been rigged hard on that topic, but I recall them very well. That ended after that first month and now their behavior is much more fanatic — something changed in a major way at the end of March 2022…
Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 6 2023 19:28 utc | 51
@ unimperator | Apr 6 2023 19:18 utc | 48
Avengers are not integrated and have no stand-off capability. Hawk is beyond obsolete junk, requires paired launch for better than 60% hit probability against 60’s bus sized fast movers, assuming the long derelict missiles don’t detonate while transported/loaded/fired, ASAMS are capable, though there are not enough missiles.
Any minimal Tactical ADS gets identified/tracked then swarmed by drones, then RUAF & Army CAS have a turkey shoot, would expect.
More meat for the meatgrinder: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UcBr3ZYXqg
Posted by: Apollyon | Apr 6 2023 19:29 utc | 53
Posted by: Outraged | Apr 6 2023 17:33 utc | 30
All true, my uni worked closely with the military to set up programmes assisting personnel who were casualties of the ‘peace dividend’ along with their thousands of years of experience of moving the ‘heavy stuff’ around. The peace-keeping role, which the military actively campaigned for, caused a structural reorganisation, but also a cultural one. With no Cold War damascene sword held over the politicians the military were vulnerable to liberal politicians, on both sides of the pond, who had many an axe to grind. The end result, armed forces not fit for purpose, Potemkin soldiers, with threadbare inventories, top heavy with top brass and trained and equipped to fight LIC and COIN ops. Throw in the fact that the higher you rise in any organisation the more you transform into a politician, coupled with the current toxic anti-meritocratic culture being enforced, and you have the perfect description of a dysfunctional organisation.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 6 2023 19:33 utc | 54
Immediately after Finland joined Nato, Finnair, the state airline, announced that they will discontinue all flights to the second largest city Tampere. Works are apparently underway to fully convert the Tampere civilian airport into a Nato air base and to upgrade its access roads, which have been quickly sealed off from civilians and are now under urgent reconstruction day and night. The mayor of Tampere wasn’t notified in advance and only read about the cessation of flights in the newspaper. Enormous investments had been made to enlarge the airport capacity the past few years; now that they’re finished (finnished?), it’s a good time to tell the people that it’s not their airport any more.
Shittiest country on earth, but hey, finnish people will find a way to justify this and to angrily defend the politicians and bureucrats, like they always do 😀 Could it be time for the Darwin prize for the dumbest, naivest authority ass-lickers on the planet?
On the same day Finland also bought an anti-air missile system from Israel. The only positive news is that a celebration organised on the main square of Helsinki for joining Nato managed to gather a total of ten people.
Posted by: Mike | Apr 6 2023 19:51 utc | 55
Seymour Hersh: The Nord Stream Ghost Ship
The false details in the CIA’s cover story.
https://scheerpost.com/2023/04/05/seymour-hersh-the-nord-stream-ghost-ship/
Hersh solicits the opinion of an informed intelligence professional on that story about a yacht called Andromeda:
“In the world of professional analysts and operators everyone will universally and correctly conclude from your story that the devilish CIA concocted a counter-op that is on its face so ridiculous and childish that the real purpose was to reinforce the truth.”
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Apr 6 2023 20:06 utc | 56
🇨🇳❌🇹🇼 — 📰 Reuters: China to inspect ships in Taiwan Strait, Taiwan says won’t cooperate
— “China’s Fujian maritime safety administration launched a three-day special joint patrol and inspection operation in the central and northern parts of the Taiwan Strait that includes moves to board ships, it said on its WeChat account.
The move comes amid heightened tensions between China and Taiwan, with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy hosting Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in California on Wednesday, becoming the most senior U.S. figure to meet a Taiwanese leader on U.S. soil in decades.”
A surprisingly firm move.
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/53100
The Lebanese army found loaded launchers that were aimed at Israel.
Today’s shelling of the northern regions of Israel was carried out from similar launchers.
If I’m not mistaken, those are Chinese variants of the BM-21 “Grad” missiles being fired from what must be the simplest of launch frames. These missiles follow an unguided ballistic path so they have no guidance electronics to program prior to launch but it is an example of the fact that rocket artillery shells can be fired from low cost or even disposable platforms.
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 6 2023 20:10 utc | 57
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Apr 6 2023 15:55 utc | 9
“@ young,
I think as you force enemy into smaller areas, you need LESS shelling, as it becomes more effective. Each round has a higher potential for possible KIA than in a dispersed setting.”
RESPONSE TO BroncoBilly: True, the same effect can be accomplished with less shelling as the usable area for the Ukrainians is reduced in Bakhmut. However, I suspect that the shelling is atually being increased to bring about a more rapid fall of Bakhmut.
The combination of more AFU troops within a smaller area and increased shelling rate will heat up the Russian meat grinder to even higher degrees of efficiency.
Posted by: young | Apr 6 2023 20:20 utc | 58
Although much is made of the Ukrainian forces being built up, and armed, “ready” for a future attack, the Russians have now had about four+ months (from November 2022) to fully train those from their own last mobilization. The stated 300’000 men have had time to be integrated into using active Russian techniques and working with experienced soldiers..
The idea came from simplicius, who noted that there was a simultaneous draw-down of Russian troops and a corresponding increase in the use of Wagner at that time. Leading to the actual situation nowadays.
****
So the post quoted by: Down South | Apr 6 2023 18:18 utc | 38, below, is probably a vast underestimation by MI6.
MI6 transmitted intelligence to the Office of the President and the General Staff that Russia continues to form reserves in the Crimea and the Rostov region, designed to repel the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. British intelligence believes that there are now 100,000 Russian troops and several thousand tanks and self-propelled guns near the borders with Ukraine, which do not take part in hostilities.
“>https://t.me/rezident_ua/17190
The forces available to the Russian central command could be much bigger. 300’000 plus the temporarily withdrawn experienced troops.
**
Note that having this period for “training and integration” is a good explanation why the Wagner group have, a couple of times, been seen to be “going slow” and not taking advantage of holes in the Ukie defenses..
anon2020 | Apr 6 2023 20:10 utc | 56
And the puppet said:
“While I am out of the country, our national security service has been closely monitoring the situation. What we are doing is ensuring that our ships can sail safely at sea and preventing China from interfering in our territorial waters,” Tsai said from United States.
Posted by: rk | Apr 6 2023 20:30 utc | 60
Besides, Germans put up with more crap than, for example, French people.
Posted by: Hamburger | Apr 6 2023 15:55 utc | 10
For a split second I misread the above, inserting a strategic “that” which rather changed the meaning of the sentence. I first read, “Besides, Germans put up with more crap than that, for example, French people.”
Posted by: Mike314159 | Apr 6 2023 20:31 utc | 61
IMO, it’s fair to make a comparison between UkroNazis and Outlaw US Empire Neocons, and from what I’ve observed there’s very little difference. And given the Neocon goal doesn’t really differ from the Nazi’s Plan Ost, IMO it’s appropriate to call them NeoconNazis to distinguish them from Urko and other brands of Nazis within Europe and North America.
Meanwhile, in France the Neoliberal Parasite firm BlackRock’s come under direct attack by the French. Escobar reports the protests are well organized and will escalate next week. Today Belgian firemen marched with their French compatriots protesting all. Escobar’s Twitter has coverage.
Posted by: Mike | Apr 6 2023 19:51 utc | 54
It’s all total and complete cucking beyond embarassing. The media has been raving for weeks how Finland managed to sell itself to Nato, and all the useful stuff they can give to Nato. And how US needs “reliable partners” in Europe. They don’t even hide it, namely complete subjugation to US and proud of it.
Well, yes, the membership is mostly composed by mineral exploitation, zinc, nickel, copper, cobalt, chromite, gold, and rare earth. Secondly, the rip off selling new wunderwaffe arms (US/Israel David’s sling) already started. Third, US and UK love their harassments and provocations they can cause in someone else’s country. Fourth, US can easily see everything going on in Russia’s naval fleet and they can deploy their ASW aircraft basically outside harbor entrance. They could even harass the arctic sea shipping lanes.
It causes a lot of problems. But in the big picture, US hegemony and global dominance of trade is a goner, getting a few poor puppet states won’t change that, no matter how much they get ripped off.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 6 2023 20:35 utc | 63
@SattaMassaGana | Apr 6 2023 16:30 utc | 20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BXtgq0Nhsc
Posted by: ulf persson | Apr 6 2023 20:35 utc | 64
Immediately after Finland joined Nato, Finnair, the state airline, announced that they will discontinue all flights to the second largest city Tampere. Works are apparently underway to fully convert the Tampere civilian airport into a Nato air base and to upgrade its access roads, which have been quickly sealed off from civilians and are now under urgent reconstruction day and night. The mayor of Tampere wasn’t notified in advance and only read about the cessation of flights in the newspaper. Enormous investments had been made to enlarge the airport capacity the past few years; now that they’re finished (finnished?), it’s a good time to tell the people that it’s not their airport any more.
Posted by: Mike | Apr 6 2023 19:51 utc | 54
Is that true? I don’t see it anywhere else.
I do, however, see videos of Yars mobile ICBMs being moved to Vyborg.
Which is actually quite silly — these are ICBMs, and you don’t need ICBMs to destroy Finland, simple Iskanders and ALCMs will do the job. ICBMs are for the US (and perhaps Australia). Putting them in Vyborg is only exposing them to attack from Finland even if they are mobile launchers (NATO satellites never sleep).
But if nukes are moved to Finland, Russia will have to either strike at them, or surrender.
Will Putin have the balls to do it? He didn’t have the balls to prevent it, even though he could have…
Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 6 2023 20:37 utc | 65
rk @59–
Of course, Taiwan has no “territorial waters” of its own. China’s well within its rights to inspect anything that goes in and out of Taiwan as it’s Chinese territory–and the world agrees as per the One China Policy, which should be renamed the One China Reality.
I used to see ‘Taiwan’ used when the subject was republic of China, which moved onto Formosa and kept its named with chiang remaining president for life, after being runout of the mainland.
Taiwan is a pseudonym for Formosa, and using it instead of republic of China hides the crux of the republic of china issue, the 1949 conclusion is still open
Posted by: paddy | Apr 6 2023 20:48 utc | 67
We should also always remember how ugly things got in WWII, and how many areas were very successfully completely ethnically cleansed in the course of it. As the situation globally gets really desperate (and it looks like it is happening faster than I expected all this time), what is now unthinkable may become reality. It won’t be the mild mannered very cautious Putin in power forever…
Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 6 2023 16:46 utc | 24
I read somewhere decades ago that most of such ethnic cleansings and mass population displacements happened after 1945. Certainly the Germans, for example, suffered millions more losses in deaths, wounded (and mass rapes) after surrendering than during all the war years, which echoed what happened to them in 1919 after ceasing hostilities in 1918.
I don’t see any decent way this ends unless and until Western polities crumple to the point they can no longer keep messing around in territories outside their own immediate domains. We are a long way from that…
I read somewhere decades ago that most of such ethnic cleansings and mass population displacements happened after 1945. Certainly the Germans, for example, suffered millions more losses in deaths, wounded (and mass rapes) after surrendering than during all the war years, which echoed what happened to them in 1919 after ceasing hostilities in 1918.
I don’t see any decent way this ends unless and until Western polities crumple to the point they can no longer keep messing around in territories outside their own immediate domains. We are a long way from that…
Posted by: Scorpion | Apr 6 2023 20:52 utc | 67
It was roughly half and half.
The Jews were cleansed prior to 1945. How many Jews are there in Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, etc. today? Barely any, right? Just as there are no Armenians in Turkey. Genocide works.
Banderites also did a fairly good job on the Poles in certain areas already prior to 1945, though there had to be additional forced population exchanges after the war to fully clean the two sides of the border.
But my point was that Europe is right now showing its true face to Russia. The rhetoric about Russians right now is not that much different from that about Jews in Germany circa 1937.
With Napoleon there was no issue of extermination — he invaded, some cities were burned down, a couple hundred thousand Russians died, it was over.
Then comes Hitler, and ups the ante, with an openly genocidal intent. Thirty million Russians dead.
Now we are on Round 3, and there are nukes. How much potential damage are we talking about?
And we again go back to what “security” means in the nuclear era — ideally no land borders with hostile actors.
The bear is still very far from truly awakening, the limitrophes would do well to understand that…
Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 6 2023 21:02 utc | 69
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 6 2023 19:11 utc | 46
ZH is incorrect. Obviously that person is embellishing G7 propaganda. G7 media never, ever cites fmprc or mid readouts in their entirety, A/V, or daily press conferences. Instead, they embellish one line non sequiturs and 2-min clips with gothic—strike that—paranormal communications with Putin’s brain or Xi’s body language. Even if one’s only source of information is MSM, formualic representations of HISTORIC ICONIC STRATEGIC events are obvious. I say this, because I spent an inordinate amount of time comparing all RU-CN communiques and transcripts (even the twin OpEds) with anglo-american MSM “reporting” on the state visit. But all that’s recalled is “no limits,” “changes not seen for 100 years,” “suprise developments,” and “bring Russia to its senses”.
Also, Fu Cong said
“That speech contained a lot of misrepresentation and misinterpretation of Chinese policies and the Chinese positions,” Fu told state-owned broadcaster CGTN. “Whoever wrote that speech for President von der Leyen does not really understand China or deliberately distorted Chinese positions,”
What speech? this one.
If you can, read April 6 fmprc readouts for all EU-CN diplomatic conclusions instead.
If you are fluent in French or Mandarin, watch
First Post | full press conference with signing ceremony, A/V (FR, Mandarin), 00:37:45
Posted by: sln2002 | Apr 6 2023 21:13 utc | 70
@ SattaMassaGana,§31:
Except Germany didn´t “do it to itself”: it was the vindictive Treaty of Versailles imposed by the French and British – and which bitter aftermath led to WW2.
Posted by: John Marks | Apr 6 2023 21:18 utc | 71
Posted by: John Marks | Apr 6 2023 21:18 utc | 70
seems to me like the every time answer “we didnt really do anything to provoke that” 🙂
Posted by: Macpott | Apr 6 2023 21:36 utc | 72
Just showed up, so if this has already been noted or discussed; Sorry!
The Swedish prosecutor investigating the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines has said that an attack by a state actor remains the “absolute main scenario” in its probe of the crime. This contradicts claims by some Western media, which pointed the finger at a “pro-Ukrainian group” not linked to any government, as a likely culprit. (RT quoting from a Reuters story).
According to Reuters, Mats Ljungqvist, the Swedish prosecutor said “…some private companies specializing in ‘certain special missions’ could in theory, carry this out.” “…We don’t rule out anything, but that it is a state actor who is directly or at least indirectly behind this is of course our absolute main scenario, given all the circumstances,” he added.
Posted by: Ed | Apr 6 2023 22:00 utc | 73
An exchange between North Carolina Representative Jeff Jackson and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley at the U.S. House Armed Services Committee hearing on March 29, 2023 (video):
Jackson: If I could ask you a broader question—which you may not be able to answer—if we had never supported the Ukrainians at all, would Russia have conquered Ukraine by now?
Milley: I think without Western support… First of all, I think the Ukrainian people, their will is indomitable. These are the same people, sons and grandsons of the folks who fought Stalin and Zhukov for 10 years from 1945 to 1955. So the Ukrainians are not going to be easily conquered, no matter what. If they’re fighting with pitchforks and spears, they’re going to fight back. But, having said that, they would have probably lost considerably more ground without Western assistance, there’s no question in my mind about that. So I think Western assistance has been critical to the Ukrainians being able to defend themselves.
According to Georgiy Sannikov, KGB veteran and author of several books on the fight against OUN/UPA, during post-WW2 period, 25,000 Soviet Army servicemen, KGB servicemen, policemen and border guards died fighting UPA, as well as 30,000 Soviet managers and specialists (such as school teachers) and Communist Party members—civilians who were assassinated by UPA as “representatives of the regime”. Of these 55,000 people, many were ethnically Ukrainians. At the same time, during 1944–1956, 155,000 UPA militants were killed. The largest estimate of the total number of UPA members I’ve seen is 400,000. At the same time, about 7,000,000 Ukrainians served in the Red Army during its fight against the Nazis and UPA; 1,300,000 of these Ukrainians died in battle.
So, on one hand, we have 7,000,000 Ukrainians, led by Stalin and Zhukov, fighting against the Nazis and UPA.
On the other hand, we have 400,000 Ukrainians, who first served Nazi Germany (a third of UPA officers have previously served in Nazi Germany military units or auxiliary police), assisting in the capture and murder of 1,500,000 Ukrainian Jews (civilians), murdering entire villages of Belarussians (including women and children) suspected of providing food to Soviet partisans, then formed their own “army” and engaged in ethnic cleansing in Volynia, murdering 150,000 Polish civilians (including women and children), then used forest bunkers built for them by Nazi Germany and CIA/MI6’s assistance to “fight Stalin and Zhukov for 10 years”, that is, assassinate Soviet civilians (including women)—teachers, doctors, engineers—who were trying to restore normal life in Western Ukraine.
So Ukrainians are definitely not “the same people” who “fought Stalin and Zhukov for 10 years”. Their current ruling class are “the same people”, yes—helpfully installed by the U.S. in 2014—but most Ukrainains are actually descendants of those who, led by Stalin and Zhukov, fought against the Nazis.
Regarding Milley’s “pitchforks and spears” rhetoric, UPA members actually used pitchforks to murder Poles—including using pitchforks to murder little kids—during the Volynia genocide, so Milley is not that far off here, but again, those murders were done by a minority of Ukrainians, not the majority.
Of course, these days, thanks to Nazi propaganda, most Ukrainians celebrate UPA members as heroes. But their fathers and grandfathers fought against them and what they represented.
Posted by: S | Apr 6 2023 22:02 utc | 74
@Posted by: unimperator | Apr 6 2023 18:46 utc | 41
The Kursk parallel did occur to me too. This is not last year, the Russians have prepared multiple layers of defence and have very significant reserve forces to man those defences. Unlike with the Germans in Kursk, the Ukrainians do not have a viable air force, do not have many hundreds of state of the art tanks (Tiger and Panther) with even some of the latest Western tanks supplied but not allowed to be used on the front line (would be embarrassing to see many videos of burnt out Western tank wunderwaffen), are massively outgunned in artillery pieces and shells and are using relatively lightly-trained and inexperienced soldiers. I have read some stories that the Ukrainians will attempt to overwhelm the Russians with a massive drone attack, but the Russian air defences and jamming equipment will be very difficult to beat and the Russians seem to be bombing an awful lot of drone factories and warehouses lately.
It looks like there will be quite the Turkey shoot, hopefully followed by the Russians pushing and exploiting their advantage and turning the Ukrainian offensive into a Ukrainian route. All those guided glider FAB 500/1500 will be very useful in smashing Ukie supply dumps, trains, bridges and collections of vehicles when required.
The Western MSM coverage will shrink in opposite relation to the scale of disaster overcoming the Ukrainian forces.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1644070649441157120
Any truth to this one?
Posted by: LGB! | Apr 6 2023 22:14 utc | 76
Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 6 2023 18:40 utc | 39 “It will be barely detectable on radars at that speed”
Depends where you are looking from. From a ground based radar station, true. But from one in the air, it will be more detectable (depending on the distance).
However this is issue has been recognized and the US launched a bunch of satellites a few days ago as the first step with dealing with the issue.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3348974/space-development-agency-successfully-launches-tranche-0-satellites/
Posted by: Response2 | Apr 6 2023 22:15 utc | 77
Cont’d from #73
For more information on Ukrainian losses in WW2, read this RT article from 2018:
“We lost a fifth of the population”: how the Ukraine was liberated from fascist invaders (RT, Svyatoslav Knyazev, October 28, 2018 — in Russian) (English translation by Google Translate)
Posted by: S | Apr 6 2023 22:22 utc | 78
@29
It looks like the quotation is fake. It seems to have come from the twitter account of @Spriter
https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1644018746019684363
But there is no link nor any source whatsoever. I would be waiting for an official post from either the Chinese or the Ukrainian or French side to confirm this.
As of now, this is just part of the communication war.
Posted by: F | Apr 6 2023 22:22 utc | 79
S @73–
Thanks for that confirmation that Milley is a Nazi along with all those who pumped him to adopt that POV. What percentage of the Outlaw US Empire’s military shares that POV and is thus Nazi is a very good question. Even if it’s only 25%, that vastly increases the size and nature of the Swamp that must be drained.
The UK government are going to test their new mobile phone based emergency alert system EAS at 3pm UK summer time on SUnday 23rd April 2023. To me this means that the UK government is planning for a potential nuclear conflict. It scares the shit our of me. I have just had to listen to BBC News bollocks showing that the Russians are losing AND no information on Artemovsk as its been memory holed. Orthodox Easter this year is 16th April 2023. The west always try to attack during holidays, but I expect western attacks and false flags after the start of any Ukrainian “virtual counter offensive”. They will use a tactical nuke and blame it on the Russians. Even if Russians get killed, it will simply be passed off as alcohol based incompetence.
Posted by: Kaiama | Apr 6 2023 22:35 utc | 81
“by: karlof1 | Apr 6 2023 20:39 utc | 65”
“China’s well within its rights to inspect anything that goes in and out of Taiwan as it’s Chinese territory–and the world agrees as per the One China Policy, which should be renamed the One China Reality.”
I’ve often wondered why China has allowed weapons shipments into Taiwan, when they obviously have not only the legal right but also the moral right to confiscate, block, or destroy any such weapons the instant they enter China’s territorial waters near Taiwan. I would have said so earlier but figured I’d be called a ‘concern troll’ by someone who flings that phrase around like confetti.
Posted by: Dalit | Apr 6 2023 22:35 utc | 82
Depends where you are looking from. From a ground based radar station, true. But from one in the air, it will be more detectable (depending on the distance).
However this is issue has been recognized and the US launched a bunch of satellites a few days ago as the first step with dealing with the issue.
“>https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3348974/space-development-agency-successfully-launches-tranche-0-satellites/
Posted by: Response2 | Apr 6 2023 22:15 utc | 76
I looked at the link you kindly provided and I am not seeing anything supporting the claims you seem to be attributing to this satellite array.
In particular, the following jumped out at me:
Tranche 0 will demonstrate the feasibility of the following:
OK, so it’s a feasibility study…
Low latency data connectivity
which, as far as any of us understand, remains ultimately governed by the speed of light…
Beyond line of sight targeting
but surely this capability has long since been available?..
Missile warning/missile tracking
Note that it doesn’t specify a hypersonic detection capability. In any case, when it comes to hypersonics, detecting is one thing, intercepting/destroying is quite another matter…
On-orbit fusion
Multi-phenomenology ground-based sensor fusion
Now these read like typical corporate MBA-speak; the trick of taking well-understood scientific terms and using them in an entirely unrelated sphere, in order to project an appearance of superior intellect that doesn’t actually exist. Unless they really are intending to conduct fusion experiments in orbit, which seems fanciful in the extreme.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Apr 6 2023 23:02 utc | 83
The historical memory of Ukrainians has been turned upside down in ten years — KIIS poll (EurAsia Daily, April 5, 2023 — in Russian)
Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) has published the shocking results of the Historical Memory study, which help to understand the mechanism of the mass spread of neo-Nazi sentiment in the Ukraine.
As Rubaltic notes in its analysis, cynical manipulators took advantage of the fact that the inhabitants of the Ukraine know little about history and immersed them in a twisted virtual reality in which love for Bohdan Khmelnytskiy is combined with reverence for Poland, and almost a third of the population defends Hitlerism.
The study consisted of several blocks. One of them was devoted to the assessment by the inhabitants of the Ukraine of specific historical figures—from the Middle Ages to the 20th century.
86% of the respondents declared their positive attitude towards the nationalist Vyacheslav Chornovil, 89% towards Bohdan Khmelnytskiy, 84% towards Ivan Mazepa, 83% towards Stepan Bandera, 67% towards Roman Shukhevych, 64% towards Symon Petlyura.
At the same time, for example, only 21% of the study participants have a positive attitude towards the liberator of the Ukraine from the Nazi occupiers, General Nikolay Vatutin (37% negative, and 12% can’t decide). And only 8% of respondents have a good attitude towards the actual creator of the Ukraine, Vladimir Lenin.
The dynamics are impressive. For comparison: ten years ago, only 22% of the population of the Ukraine declared their good attitude towards the Nazi collaborator and leader of the OUN Stepan Bandera. His popularity has almost quadrupled (here you need to make allowances for the withdrawal of the Crimea, Donbass, as well as the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, but the growth is still serious).
As for historical events, 83% of the study participants positively assessed the role of the uprising of Bohdan Khmelnytskiy, 74% the “uprising” of Ivan Mazepa (Hetman switching to the side of the Swedes during the Great Northern War), 67% an attempt to create the UNR [Ukrainian People’s Republic — S] during the Civil War, 75% the formation of the OUN, 68% the “struggle” of the OUN/UPA during the Second World War, 83% the collapse of the USSR and the same number—Euromaidan.
57% of participants in the new study are positive about industrialization. However, only 6% speak of a good attitude towards the figure of Joseph Stalin, who organized this very industrialization.
From the point of view of common sense, this is rather difficult to explain. It turns out that more than half of the population of the Ukraine, for one reason or another, is not able to link the very process of industrialization and the personality of the person who actually launched it.
Three-quarters of the population negatively assess the creation of the USSR. And this despite the fact that the Ukrainian SSR was one of its key founders, and it was the creation of the Soviet Union that led to industrialization, which most participants in the study consider a boon.
More than 90% of the inhabitants of the Ukraine claim that the famine of 1932–1933 was a genocide of Ukrainians, and 64% call the Ukraine a former colony of the Russian Empire. Obviously, most citizens of the independent state are unaware that the famine in the 1930s covered much wider territories than modern Ukraine, and Little Russia [pre-revolution name of the Ukraine — S] was such a mysterious “colony” that its representatives were regularly appointed to the top state positions in the Empire.
The fact that Victory Day on May 9 should be canceled and the Day of Remembrance and Reconciliation on May 8 should be celebrated instead was stated by 62% of the study participants. 22% of respondents want to save the May 9 holiday.
Every second participant believes that the USSR bears full responsibility for the outbreak of World War II, another 35%—partial responsibility. Obviously, if the Ukrainians were asked what the Munich Agreement was, the vast majority of them would be puzzled by this question…
69% of the population of the Ukraine believe that their country is the ideological heir to the UNR that de facto never existed. And only 11% confidently link their history with the Ukrainian SSR.
62% of survey participants said they support the idea of condemning German Nazism. But 28% (!) are categorically against criticism of Hitlerism. At the same time, 71% condemn Soviet communism. 23% of respondents are against the condemnation of the Soviet power.
63% of the study participants consider Poles historically the closest people to Ukrainians, 12% Russians, 7% other peoples, and 17% have not decided on their position on this issue.
The answers to the questions are quite clearly differentiated by region. In the western regions, about 90% of respondents confidently support the anti-Russian and anti-Soviet agenda, and in the southern and eastern parts of the territories controlled by official Kiev, about half or a little more. It should be borne in mind that in the context of a hot conflict, some respondents in any country of the world are afraid to give answers that are “not approved” by the regime and try to either show loyalty or imitate the absence of a clear position.
Even with a cursory look at the results of the study, its frankly psychiatric paradox is striking. And we are talking about much more striking contradictions than “industrialization without Stalin”.
Just the fact that the same people declare their love for Bohdan Khmelnytskiy, support his uprisings, yet at the same time call the Poles “the most historically close people in relation to the Ukrainians” is quite something.
No less surprising is the very fact of “renunciation” of kinship with Russians. A common history, genetic and linguistic data, archaeological materials—all of this clearly indicates that Russians, Ukrainians and Belarussians are part of a single East Slavic community. And this fact is unconditionally recognized by scientists all over the world, including in countries that are unfriendly towards Russia.
By the way, the Polish Wikipedia in the corresponding article includes four peoples in Eastern Slavs—Russians, Ukrainians, Belarussians and Rusyns. Against this background, the attempt by a significant part of the population of the Ukraine to declare themselves “brothers of the Poles” looks at least strange.
But the saddest thing is the picture of the Ukrainians’ vision of the events of the Second World War, which developed in the period from 2014 to 2023. And it’s not just about the attitude towards the OUN, although it’s simply not serious to deny the massive collaborationism of members of this organization and their involvement in the massacres of civilians (the Holocaust, the Volynia massacre, punitive measures on the territory of Belorussia as part of the auxiliary police, and so on). But when 28% of the population of the Ukraine demand to stop criticizing German Nazism and Hitler’s Germany, that’s just complete savagery.
All this taken together points to the monstrous transformations that have taken place in the collective consciousness of the population of the Ukraine under the influence of the Kiev neo-Nazi propaganda. And to ignore them means to take the position of an ostrich [i.e., to bury one’s head in the sand — S].
Professional manipulators, both in the service of the Kiev regime and Western ones, managed to create “clip consciousness” at the national level. It is no coincidence that Ukrainians name YouTube and social networks as the main sources of “historical knowledge”.
The Ukrainian segment of the Internet is simply crammed with online resources, from which outright anti-historical nonsense is blared, either in a light humorous or in a pseudo-scientific form, but in a bright wrapper – with pictures, “vids”, edgy emotional comments.
All this could seem somewhat comical if it did not serve as an ideological basis for the massive shelling of Donetsk, terrorist attacks in the depths of Russian territory and the incitement of hatred for everything Russian.
The distorted vision of history in the Ukraine makes conducting the Special Military Operation until the complete and utter de-Nazification of the Ukraine inevitable. Otherwise, any stable peace is simply impossible.
Posted by: S | Apr 6 2023 23:03 utc | 84
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BXtgq0Nhsc
Posted by: ulf persson | Apr 6 2023 20:35 utc | 63
Noam Chomsky – The Crimes of U.S. Presidents
… many thanks U.P. … that is a very timely reminder for anyone who thinks that what they are witnessing on the geopolitical stage can somehow be attributed to one party or the other …
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Apr 6 2023 23:21 utc | 85
@ sln2002 | Apr 6 2023 21:13 utc | 69 with the claim of misrepresentation of my ZH quotes.
Thanks for that!
After reading the China meeting wording with Marcon and von der Leyen it reads to me like neither side backed off any…..we live in interesting times
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 6 2023 23:23 utc | 86
So, on one hand, we have 7,000,000 Ukrainians, led by Stalin and Zhukov, fighting against the Nazis and UPA.
On the other hand, we have 400,000 Ukrainians, who first served Nazi Germany (a third of UPA officers have previously served in Nazi Germany military units or auxiliary police), assisting in the capture and murder of 1,500,000 Ukrainian Jews (civilians), murdering entire villages of Belarussians (including women and children) suspected of providing food to Soviet partisans, then formed their own “army” and engaged in ethnic cleansing in Volynia, murdering 150,000 Polish civilians (including women and children), then used forest bunkers built for them by Nazi Germany and CIA/MI6’s assistance to “fight Stalin and Zhukov for 10 years”, that is, assassinate Soviet civilians (including women)—teachers, doctors, engineers—who were trying to restore normal life in Western Ukraine.
So Ukrainians are definitely not “the same people” who “fought Stalin and Zhukov for 10 years”. Their current ruling class are “the same people”, yes—helpfully installed by the U.S. in 2014—but most Ukrainains are actually descendants of those who, led by Stalin and Zhukov, fought against the Nazis.
Posted by: S | Apr 6 2023 22:02 utc | 73
OUN/UPA was almost entirely a Galician product. Not even Volhynian (Volhynia had been Russian for more than a century prior to being taken over by Poland after WWI, Galicia had never been Russian since the 12th century, and it was the Austrians specifically, who controlled Galicia, who were pumping up Ukrainian nationalism in the 19th century). A couple quick lines of evidence:
First, look at where the OUN/UPA leaders were born — it’s all Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk, and villages around them. None from even Lutsk.
Second, look at the map of Bandera statues mushrooming after 1992 — it starts in Lvov in the late 1990s, spreads in all of Galicia in the early 2000s, then it spills over into Lutsk and Rovno, then they start showing up in Kiev by 2014, then the Maidan happens, and now you have them in Odessa and Kharkov (historically 100% Russian cities).
Galicia is the source of it all, although the alienation and lack of direction in the whole of the country provided fertile ground for the spread of the contagion (e.g. soccer hooligans in Kharkov giving rise to Azov).
And Galicia was always tiny compared to the rest of Ukraine, thus those relative numbers from WWII.
But those numbers of people it took to pacify it in 1945-1955 should be sobering. Now the problem is ten times larger, and there is no GDR-Poland-Czechoslovakia-Hungary-Romania buffer between the West and Western Ukraine — you can smuggle weapons through the mountains easily from Slovakia. Even if Russia conquers it all, it will be absolutely brutal after that, unless the lessons from the post-WWII mistakes have been learned and there is a truly thorough cleansing of the disease this time. But given the soft way the war is fought now, I don’t see that happening.
Instead of doing public executions of everyone with Nazi tattoos on him, Azov were released…
And while the January 1st celebrations this year were subdued out of fear of missile strikes, there were no such missiles strikes regardless. In retrospect, there should have been Iskanders raining on Bandera torch marches 10-15 years ago, but that was when pipelines were the most important thing. Still are going by the available evidence…
A Geranium drone on the big Bandera statue in Lvov would also do a lot for morale, but it looks like either nobody has even thought about it or it has been vetoed.
Denazification my ass…
Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 6 2023 23:25 utc | 87
The study consisted of several blocks. One of them was devoted to the assessment by the inhabitants of the Ukraine of specific historical figures—from the Middle Ages to the 20th century.
86% of the respondents declared their positive attitude towards the nationalist Vyacheslav Chornovil, 89% towards Bohdan Khmelnytskiy, 84% towards Ivan Mazepa, 83% towards Stepan Bandera, 67% towards Roman Shukhevych, 64% towards Symon Petlyura.
At the same time, for example, only 21% of the study participants have a positive attitude towards the liberator of the Ukraine from the Nazi occupiers, General Nikolay Vatutin (37% negative, and 12% can’t decide). And only 8% of respondents have a good attitude towards the actual creator of the Ukraine, Vladimir Lenin.
The dynamics are impressive. For comparison: ten years ago, only 22% of the population of the Ukraine declared their good attitude towards the Nazi collaborator and leader of the OUN Stepan Bandera. His popularity has almost quadrupled (here you need to make allowances for the withdrawal of the Crimea, Donbass, as well as the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, but the growth is still serious).
The current numbers are inflated — people are indeed being disappeared for any pro-Russian statement, that is not an exaggeration. And they know it by now. So any such poll will not return objective data.
But the trend is real.
And that means that the SMO does not have all the time in the world to achieve its objectives, contrary to the hopium that is spread by so many.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 6 2023 23:28 utc | 88
Posted by: West of England Andy | Apr 6 2023 23:02 utc | 82
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/sda-successful-tranche-0-launch/ “You’ve heard a lot about these advanced hypersonic glide vehicles, hypersonic weapons. We’ll actually be able to track them so that we can send firing solutions.”
https://spaceflightnow.com/2023/04/02/u-s-military-begins-launching-satellites-to-counter-hypersonic-missile-threat/
The feasibility study is a “proof of concept for the missile tracking and data relay network”
https://www.satellitetoday.com/launch/2023/03/31/sda-is-ready-to-demonstrate-pwsa-capabilities-with-the-first-tranche-0-launch/
It also included two space vehicles built by SpaceX equipped with Wide Field of View (WFOV) sensor payload and two optical communication terminals each. These are part of the Tracking layer for missile warning and tracking.
This is all follow on from two experimental satellites launched a few years ago.
This talks about where it is going:
https://www.c4isrnet.com/battlefield-tech/space/2023/03/02/raytheon-to-make-seven-missile-tracking-satellites-for-us-space-agency/
Posted by: Response2 | Apr 6 2023 23:33 utc | 89
Except Germany didn´t “do it to itself”: it was the vindictive Treaty of Versailles imposed by the French and British – and which bitter aftermath led to WW2.
Posted by: John Marks | Apr 6 2023 21:18 utc | 70
… many thanks for the historical clarification John Marks … appreciated …
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Apr 6 2023 23:35 utc | 90
@ Dalit | Apr 6 2023 22:35 utc | 81
Good question and agree with your observation.
Posted by: natokraine | Apr 6 2023 23:40 utc | 91
In the Open (Not Ukraine) Thread, bevin posted a link to a good article that really should be posted here:
The Ukrainian diaspora’s influence on Canadian foreign policy decisions (The Canada Files, Valeriy Krylko, April 4, 2023)
Posted by: S | Apr 6 2023 23:42 utc | 92
Putin’s ICC crime: Resisting genocide
@S | Apr 6 2023 22:02 utc | 73
Milley: These are the same people, sons and grandsons of the folks who
murdered babies with pitchforksfought Stalin and Zhukov for 10 years from 1945 to 1955.
Milley’s mistake is that he equates “Ukraine” with UPA and other Nazi collaborators and then equates his fake Nazi “Ukraine” with the post-1991, post-Soviet Ukraine that existed within the borders of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.
When the Western media speak about the “Ukrainian people” and “Ukrainian ethnicity”, they are repeating this lie. What these terms actually mean, is that these are the Soviet and Russian people that the West has declared to have the right to de-Russify and Nazify. Any attempt to prevent this ethnic cleansing and cultural genocide is – in the eyes of the West – a crime agains humanity.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 6 2023 23:43 utc | 93
@shadowbanned #87:
But the trend is real.
And that means that the SMO does not have all the time in the world to achieve its objectives, contrary to the hopium that is spread by so many.
Agreed.
Posted by: S | Apr 6 2023 23:46 utc | 94
leaked counter-offensive plans? or a US/NATO psyop?
“Ukraine War Plans Leak Prompts Pentagon Investigation
Classified documents detailing secret American and NATO plans have appeared on Twitter and Telegram.
Helene Cooper Eric Schmitt
By Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt
April 6, 2023
WASHINGTON — Classified war documents detailing secret American and NATO plans for building up the Ukrainian military ahead of a planned offensive against Russia were posted this week on social media channels, senior Biden administration officials said.
The Pentagon is investigating who may have been behind the leak of the documents, which appeared on Twitter and on Telegram, a platform with more than half a billion users that is widely available in Russia.
Military analysts said the documents appear to have been modified in certain parts from their original format, overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed.
The modifications could point to an effort of disinformation by Moscow, the analysts said. But the disclosures in the original documents, which appear as photographs of charts of anticipated weapons deliveries, troop and battalion strengths, and other plans, represents a significant breach of American intelligence in the effort to aid Ukraine.
Biden officials were working to get them deleted but had not, as of Thursday evening, succeeded.
“We are aware of the reports of social media posts and the department is reviewing the matter,” said Sabrina Singh, the deputy press secretary at the Pentagon.”
Posted by: MG | Apr 6 2023 23:50 utc | 95
@shadowbanned | Apr 6 2023 23:25 utc | 86
Second, look at the map of Bandera statues mushrooming after 1992 — it starts in Lvov in the late 1990s, spreads in all of Galicia in the early 2000s, then it spills over into Lutsk and Rovno, then they start showing up in Kiev by 2014, then the Maidan happens, and now you have them in Odessa and Kharkov…
No one in Kharkov or Donbass had ever heard of the “Holodomor”, although it was the area worst hit by the 1932 Soviet famine.
On the other hand, the most vivid memories of the Holodomor exist in Galicia, although in 1932 Galicia was not Soviet but part of Poland.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 7 2023 0:08 utc | 96
S @83–
Thanks for providing that amazing evidence. Clearly Ukraine was the first victim of Cancel Culture, what I’d call a huge crime facilitated by NATO that Obama, Biden, Merkle, Hollande, et al, had to know about. IMO, every Russian ought to forget about being friends with anyone from the West, even those of us who understand their position for how can they really trust us?
What the study reveals is a Pandemic of a different type even more insidious than Germ Warfare IMO. The issue of denazification now becomes broader to wholesale reeducation and destruction of those who did that deed, for they constitute a very different sort of virus.
It appears the study just examined the people from one settlement, Nezalezhnaya, although this isn’t a settlement–according to my search the word is a derogatory term for Ukrainians and Ukraine, and that’s not a very good way to begin such an explosive paper. Now I’m forced to question its credibility!!
From a practical point of view, I think the best way to deal with Ukraine would be to erase it, divide in 3 parts: the Russian east/south, Belarus center/north, and Galicia as a separate country. Ukraine is quickly depopulating (fleeing to Europe/Russia+ low birth rate/high mortality…) if Russia installed a strongman like kadyrov in Galicia, doesn’t matter if he is corrupt/brutal, as long a he did as told and cracked down on banderists/terrorists, Russia could then increase the alert for terrorism ( especially on the former Ukrainian region) for some 10 years until the problem solves itself.
Posted by: Phariah | Apr 7 2023 0:30 utc | 98
Ukraine 2014: The Tipping Point of Terror
Very very useful. Covert Action Magazine – Much we know but this is very well sourced and explained …
… including the operation and psychology of how covert action works .. and it does work a heck of a lot of the time …
https://covertactionmagazine.com/2023/04/02/ukraine-2014-the-tipping-point-of-terror/
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 7 2023 0:40 utc | 99
A study out of Ukraine saying that Ukrainians are all stupid Nazi loving scumbags is full propaganda, just like polls saying 80% of the country supports the war. It’s pretty much illegal and life threatening to not support the war in Ukraine. A small group of people making money support the war and not too many people on either side are deeply upset that all the “Nazi’s” are dieing
Nato locked the doors on Ukrainians trying to flee and use mercs to point guns at the locals to make them fight. Russian mobilization of Ukrainian nationals has been basically the same.
There is no good in this battle, it is not good vrs evil or right vrs wrong. It’s greed and bullshit humans should have set aside 1000 years ago.
Posted by: OohCanada | Apr 7 2023 0:55 utc | 100