BAKHMUT:
The Russians continue to take large chunks out of Bakhmut City every week. This looks to be the case for this week also. At this rate Bakhmut will fall to the Russians soon.
Several months ago most would have figured that Russia would physically encircle Bakhmut and put it into total siege. However, the Russians never did this.
Perhaps they could not because of Ukrainian attacks and defense upon the roads into Bakhmut from Chasiv Yar. Or perhaps Russia felt like their fire control over these roads was sufficient to significantly hinder military supply to the AFU troops in Bakhmut.
Recently, another view came to the forefront. That was that Ukraine has a tunnel from Bakhmut to Chasiv Yar 20 km to the West of Bakhmut which is being used for resupply of the Ukrainain troops in Bakhmut.
Regardless of the reasons the Russians have not physically cut off all the roads into Bakhmut, the Wagner forces within Bakhmut are carving away new territory at a much faster rate now. Large chunks of the city are falling into Russian hands every week.
At this rate it will not take many more months or maybe many more weeks before Bakhmut has fallen into Russian hands.
This was foretold by the Western media preparing its readers and listeners that the City of Bakhmut was not of any significant military importance.
If Bakhmut was not of such importance to Ukraine, it is a shame so many Ukrainians and others have died there attempting to keep it in the hands of the AFU.
Going forward, the next important military question regarding Ukraine is how the fall of Bakhmut will affect the zero lines in Ukraine.

Posted by: young | Apr 3 2023 17:11 utc | 4

“US expects Kiev to launch counteroffensive in coming weeks” – US envoy to NATO
It’s like a trailer for a movie, “coming this spring”. Though ugly envoy didn’t say which year.

Posted by: rk | Apr 3 2023 17:22 utc | 6

⚡️⚡️⚡️#Inside
Our source in the OP said that the Americans demanded that the Office of the President restart the entire judicial system in Ukraine, we are expected to resign the heads of courts, as well as purges. The clientele of Artyom Sytnik for the Head of NABU was also agreed, the whole competition is an empty fiction.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/16517

Bank will start overloading the entire judicial system under the soros. Our source from the Office of the President informed the offices of these reforms in February, but in reality they turned out to be even more cunning, and they want to check not only new, but also old judges for “good faith”. In accordance with this reform, upon retirement, judges must pass the criterion of “good faith” according to the same procedure as when passing the qualification assessment. Evaluation will be done by the GDT.
Passed – retire with content.
Did not pass – just dismissal without maintenance and guarantees.
The idea is to provoke a voluntary outflow of many judges, and the authorities will not be able to influence the commission, since the Soros will oversee it.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17147

Posted by: Down South | Apr 3 2023 17:31 utc | 8

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Situation in the #Donetsk Direction until 18:00 on 3 Apr 2023⚡️
▪️ In the #Donetsk Direction, the AFU is reinforcing their positions. New batches of ammunition have been transferred to the frontline, and limited amounts of fuel have been issued due to disruptions in the supply of fuel and lubricants. At the same time, reinforcements from other parts of the front are expected to move to the line of contact.
🔹In the #Avdeyevka Sector, units of the AFU’s 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade are preparing for an offensive north of Avdeyevka against Russian positions near #Krasnogorovka.
Ukrainian formations have been issued with dry rations for several days and refuelling of equipment has been organized. A couple of days ago, the AFU had already attempted to retake the lost territories, but the RF Armed Forces successfully repulsed the attack.
🔹In #Maryinka, fierce position fighting continues. Soldiers of the RF Armed Forces are storming Ukrainian strongholds in the city centre near the church on Druzhba Avenue and on the northern outskirts behind the reservoir. For the time being, the AFU are holding their ground by setting up firing points in houses.
▪️ In #Marinka, reinforcements of the AFU arrived to rotate the personnel of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces’ 79th Airborne Assault Brigade. And four tanks from the outskirts of #Kurakhovo were moved to #Maksimilyanovka .
▪️ Members of the Ukrainian formations talk about power outages in their occupied DPR territory due to the Russian strike on the #Kurakhovo TPP.
🔹In the #Ugledar Section near Novy Komar, an unidentified unit is being trained by US instructors to conduct small group assault operations.
🔸In #Dnepropetrovsk Region, the training of the 23rd Mechanized Brigade of the AFU is coming to an end at a training range near #Novomoskovsk. Upon completion of the training, the personnel of the 23rd Brigade will be redeployed to the #Donetsk direction in one of the areas.
In addition, a battery of M109A6 Paladin self-propelled artillery units (eight SAU units and around 120 men) is scheduled to be deployed to the #Donetsk direction from 8 April. The A6 modifications are equipped with improved armour protection and an automated fire control system.
📌 The Ukrainian Authorities are currently planning to significantly reinforce the grouping of troops in the #Donetsk direction. Given certain successes of the Russian army in #Maryinka and near #Avdeyevka, it is highly likely that the AFU will try to launch a counterattack somewhere near these suburbs of #Donetsk.
The general design of the AFU spring-summer campaign implies an offensive with a broad front in one or two directions, with several stalling in other areas, starting from #Kherson and ending in the #Kharkov region. This will make it possible to identify the least defended positions of the RF Armed Forces and strike there to break through the front.
As we said earlier, in addition to #Zaporozhye, we should also expect attacks in other sections of the front. The plans to engage only the 23rd Mechanized Brigade in the #Donetsk direction indirectly point to preparations for this near #Donetsk.

https://t.me/sitreports/6693

Posted by: Down South | Apr 3 2023 17:34 utc | 10

One hour ago ….
Russia Ukraine War: Japan Buys Russian Oil | BRICS Challenges US Dollar | Vantage with Palki Sharma
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqW5se0qz1E

Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 3 2023 17:38 utc | 12

If Ukraine initiates an all-out offensive….Will Russia increase their Air Support?

Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | Apr 3 2023 17:46 utc | 14

“US expects Kiev to launch counteroffensive in coming weeks” […]
Posted by: rk | Apr 3 2023 17:22 utc | 6
We have been hearing this since September.
Remember when Zelensky promised to take back Crimea by end of 2022?
Good times.

Posted by: Chris | Apr 3 2023 17:56 utc | 16

@ Don Firineach, §12:
Yes, Don, I expect this to roll on: Japan wants to be friends with its neighbours and only American bombast is preventing it.
Eventually, Japan will do a deal with Russia: return of the Kurils in exchange for removing the Americans from the Ryukyus and ending the America-Japan “alliance” – which is really just a continuation of America´s occupation since WW2.

Posted by: John Marks | Apr 3 2023 17:59 utc | 18

Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 3 2023 17:56 utc | 17
A few weeks ago Ukraine announced a new 500k mobilization over 4 months. This is to replace losses and build up 1st wave cannon foddet for offensive. It most likely will be temporarily enough to achieve a surge in troop numbers, but maybe a short-lived one.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 3 2023 18:01 utc | 20

Posted by: Down South | Apr 3 2023 17:31 utc | 8
The idea is to provoke a voluntary outflow of many judges, and the authorities will not be able to influence the commission, since the Soros will oversee it.
The prophecy of Sheikh Imran Hossein is unfolding exactly as he foretold so many years ago:
Ukraine will be turned completely and utterly into a weapon wielded by the Khazars against Russia. It’s purpose will be no other.
Islam, Russia, Ukraine and the alliance with Rum

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 3 2023 18:07 utc | 22

Ukraine survives and fights thanks to the support of the West, both in materials/intelligence as well as cash. If this was not the case, it would have been over long ago.
The situation is thus such that every dollar or euro sent to Ukraine prolongs the war by a certain amount of time. If we assume that 50B has been already spent, we can extrapolate that each billion buys a week or so. Doesnt matter what that number exactly is, what matters is that it exists and has a certain value in $/€ per week.
The direction of the war can be sensed by whether that number is falling or increasing. I believe with the pledge of increasingly more sophisticated equipment and more monies that it it is increasing.
The War of attrition thus comes down to money. If Russia can keep increasing the cost for the West in dollars per week, at a certain point it will cost the West more to keep the War going than to accept some loss and make peace.
What is that number, how far off are we? Can Russia keep this up? Can the West scale up equipment production to lower its cost? Note that we are talking about real money spent here, not some leveraged scheme.

Posted by: alek_a | Apr 3 2023 18:19 utc | 24

Russia Ukraine War: Japan Buys Russian Oil | BRICS Challenges US Dollar | Vantage with Palki Sharma
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 3 2023 17:38 utc | 12
As time goes on there are multiple examples of the falling status of the dollar. I posted this at the tail end of the last Open Thread … Mario Rubio (not even the brightest spark in a pack of dimly lit congressionaires) has finally worked it out …

” … today Brazil, largest Country in the western hemisphere to the South of us, cut a trade deal and will now do trade in their own currencies. Get right around around the dollar. They are creating a secondary economy totally independent of the United States. We won’t have to talk about sanctions in five years because there will be so many countries transacting in currencies other than the dollar that we won’t have the ability to sanction them.”

DonbassDevushka
Link : DonbassDevushka

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Apr 3 2023 18:20 utc | 26

Recall the political goal announced during the Fall of 2022 to move Ukie lines, and particularly their artillery, out-of-range to strike Russian lands. This has yet to be accomplished and thus remains Russia’s current political goal within Ukraine. Yes, great suppression has occurred, but the goal still remains elusive. We’re now into April and the long range weather forecast for the Donetsk area is for 10 days of precipitation spread over the month while high temps climb above 13c to over 16c for the last 10 days of April. There will still be some mud, but fields will be drier and foliage will emerge from the currently barren trees and shrubs. Elsewhere in Ukraine the question becomes will farmers attempt to sow crops? Or perhaps the better question is: Are there any remaining farmers? And if they emerge to try and obtain fuel for their tractors and go to work, will they not be captured by the press gangs and sent to the front?
There’s lots of grousing about the need for Russia to beat the Ukies to the punch by launching their offensive first to deter the Ukie plans. With the need to still attain the political goal, it seems logical that Russia will act first. Orthodox Easter is the 16th, Good Friday the 14th, but do those dates have any meaning? As usual, only the Genral Staff knows what it has planned.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 3 2023 18:33 utc | 28

@ young, 4

Several months ago most would have figured that Russia would physically encircle Bakhmut and put it into total siege. However, the Russians never did this.
Perhaps they could not because of Ukrainian attacks and defense upon the roads into Bakhmut from Chasiv Yar. Or perhaps Russia felt like their fire control over these roads was sufficient to significantly hinder military supply to the AFU troops in Bakhmut.

Going back 2000+ years generals already knew that the best strategy for destroying an enemy was to surround them on every side but allow the units one corridor to flee. This was one of Sun Zu’s key lessons. It remains true today.
The principle is simple: if you fully surround an enemy they will fight to the lst man, digging into any and every nook and cranny that will allow them to kill your invading forces. Terrain outside of undulating deserts almost always favors the defenders.
If one leaves a corridor open for retreat then the defenders will be most inclined to flee rather than face certain death. In their retreat they may be killed more easily.
Like I said: this is a lesson in warfare that was already known 2000+ years ago.
The Russians never intended to fully surround Bakhmut. Anyone who says differently is a fool who pretends to know something they have no knowledge of.

Posted by: Pacifica_Advocate | Apr 3 2023 18:39 utc | 30

I hear big numbers mentioned for Zelensky’s futile spring offensive.
But the important question is….
How many will be going home again afterwards ?
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 3 2023 17:56 utc | 17
A question no-one in the Nato west cares to answer or discuss.

Posted by: jpc | Apr 3 2023 18:48 utc | 32

Hi alek_a
UA has started to cut cost:
An overhaul of how the military determines bonus pay may cause more harm than good, six servicemen from multiple brigades told the Kyiv Independent.
This change, which came into force in February, takes away the money that many service members need to both support their families and get vital military gear, they said. As a result, some are concerned, disillusioned or considering going back to a civilian job.
Soldiers said that their units track where they serve in paper journals, which officers don’t have time for in the midst of combat. This may lead to confusion and inconsistency with how bonuses are paid out.
Some are still waiting for their bonuses from as early as November or December.
Previously, soldiers, members of the Territorial Defense forces and police got an extra Hr 100,000 ($2,700) per month if they served in a designated active combat zone – a significant bonus in a country where the official average salary is just under Hr 15,000 ($400). Those who served outside active combat areas got an extra Hr 30,000 ($800) per month.
But starting February, only people in direct enemy contact are entitled to get up to Hr 100,000. People in combat zones, some distance away from the front line get up to Hr 30,000, while everyone who is outside an active combat zone gets no bonus at all. Rather than counting an entire month, bonuses are tallied by the day, soldiers said.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-soldiers-criticize-changes-to-combat-bonus-pay/

Posted by: Paul | Apr 3 2023 18:52 utc | 34

It’s quite a coincidence that Musk choose his dog as the new Twitter logo. The same breed of dog that is also the NAFO mascot. The same Musk that would re-instate Twitter to its core values again… whatever that would have meant. Meanwhile one after the other Twitter user a bit too critical on the NATO war effort against Russia gets banned. The same Musk who’s Starlink is actively used by the Ukrainian proxy army and NATO rear troops in the field disguised as mercenaries for communicating, targeting and navigating NATO missiles and a variety of drones to Russian targets… . The most effective evil is the one you don’t recognize.

Posted by: xor | Apr 3 2023 19:00 utc | 36

… a new 500k mobilization … but maybe a short-lived one.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 3 2023 18:01 utc | 20
The displacement and virtual eradication of the child-bearing population.

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 3 2023 19:12 utc | 38

@Martin Holsinger | Apr 3 2023 19:23 utc | 39
This article has been discussed multiple times already. If the UAF offensive actually materializes in the next couple of weeks we will see how it goes. The strengths and strategies of both sides are a black box with lots of speculation from all quarters. Both sides have had over a year of experience with battle, and for the UAF this is likely their last best shot to change the dynamics. We will see how effectively each party deploys and utilizes its resources given lessons learned from the last year of combat.

Posted by: the pessimist | Apr 3 2023 19:34 utc | 40

Roland no. 23
Great speech. And there was a good post further down about Finland’s PM losing the election.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Apr 3 2023 19:38 utc | 42

@ Pacifica_Advocate, §33:
Well, Shinzo Abe was one of the clique you mention: grandson of Nobusuke Kishi, the effective wartime ruler of Manchukuo.
And yet they assassinated Abe last year, just before an election he was likely to win.
I suspect he saw Japan as yes, resurrecting its national ambitions, but without the Americans – which was why he was assassinated.
I think the crimes of the Japanese against the Chinese and Koreans are recognized by the Japanese – though not accepted by the victims. A part of Japanese change from American occupation may indeed be to better reconcile with its neighbours China and Korea. It would have the benefit for Japan of necessarily better relations with Russia also.
The effect of such on the Americans would be almost equivalent to the Europeans abandoning the Ukraine war and NATO.
Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines may also be tempted to “reorientate” if the Japanese could successfully throw off American dominion. None of them want to be patsies against China as the Europeans are being used against Russia.
Abe realized all this.
Which was why they (the CIA probably) had Abe assassinated.

Posted by: John Marks | Apr 3 2023 19:59 utc | 44

Pacifica_Advocate | Apr 3 2023 18:39 utc | 30
Leave a corridor for an encircled enemy to flee is best strategy????
Did you ever hear of the Battle of Stalingrad?

Posted by: Jerr | Apr 3 2023 20:10 utc | 46

@ Ed, §37:
Well said, Ed.
People need to realize, as I think Lavrov, Putin and the Russians now do, that America is literally ruled by corporations with the ethics of the Mafia. The banks have been awash with laundered drug money for decades. The CIA/DEA is essentially the most powerful drug cartel protecting their turf from competitors such as those in Colombia and Mexico. This is the natural result of Prohibition: trying to suppress people´s choices. The Americans learnt the lesson with the alcohol prohibition – and then forgot it by continuing the drug prohibition.
As you say, all the Senate and Congress (with few, too few, noble exceptions) are loose change in the corporations and banksters´ pockets. No civilized state will tolerate this for long and it looks like a testimony to the nobility of the real American civilization that Americans themselves will not tolerate this mercantile tyranny much longer. The shenanigans surrounding Trump´s candidacy for 2024 may be the spark lights the revolt against the Mafiosi currently in charge in America. It won´t be pretty . . .

Posted by: John Marks | Apr 3 2023 20:22 utc | 48

is richard steven hack on a holiday? maybe he has writers block too…

Posted by: james | Apr 3 2023 20:44 utc | 50

@46
there’s a difference.
In Stalingrad times (they may return though) it was fighting tooth and nail, whatever the cost in human (soldier’s) lives. There was no other option. The amount of dead on on both sides was simply staggering. In this war there are controversies about 50000 or 100000 or 2ooooo casualities but back then it was about millions. So that scale has been lowered. So different tactics are allowed. And if Ukrainian troops can escape, leaving heavy weapons (and their courage) behind, why not?

Posted by: Anthony | Apr 3 2023 20:51 utc | 52

@ Phariah, §49:
That´s true for explicitly Russian territory.
But Russia and Japan haven´t signed a Peace Treaty to formally end WW2.
The Cairo and Potsdam declarations limited Japan to its home territory “not gained by violence nor greed” i.e. before the Imperial project launched in 1890. Thus Taiwan, Sakhalin, Korea, Micronesia, Manchuria, etc., etc. were returned to their former owners.
The Kurils and the Ryukyus were peacefully part of Japan before their imperialist gamble.
Both were occupied after WW2, the Kurils by the Russians and the Ryukyus by the Americans.
There is obviously no incentive for the Russians to return the Kurils as long as the Americans occupy the Ryukyus (and, effectively, all of Japan).
That´s why Abe tried to steer Japan away from America, end the occupation by America and return of the Kurils via a Peace Treaty with Russia.
For that endeavour, he was assassinated by the CIA last year.

Posted by: John Marks | Apr 3 2023 20:52 utc | 54

Martin Holsinger @39–
Adding to previous replies, the main point of Bentley’s op/ed is arguing for the destruction of the Dnieper’s many bridges where he goes to the extreme of accusing Putin of lying. At this forum, that argument’s been going back and forth for a year, so let’s review. What’re the two stated SMO goals? To demilitarize and deNazify Ukraine. What’s the most recent political addition to those goals? I explained that @28 above. Now the question becomes, Does downing the bridges enhance or deter the SMO’s goals? The consensus here is that downing the bridges would deter the speed with which the goals can be attained by slowing the flow of men and material into the FEBA Meatgrinder where they’re easily destroyed. Downing the bridges would force Russia to cross the river to attain its SMO goals at far greater cost to Russia. Yes, there’s some credence to Bentley’s argument related to the safety of Donbas cities. But for that to be taken seriously, Ukraine would need to have the ability to hide the required substantial attacking force, which in this day-and-age is essentially impossible, and which affects Russian capabilities too. (Please see this excellent article for excellent info on that issue.)
Furthermore, dropping the bridges would also be helpful to Ukraine as Russia will eventually march to the Dnieper to cross it and go beyond into Western Ukraine. so, on the bridges, Russia’s General Staff might change its mind, but I rather doubt it will.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 3 2023 21:06 utc | 56

And when it comes time to invade Finland, it will be a pushover just like 1939.
Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | Apr 3 2023 17:26 utc | 7
Finland’s current grey-faced drug addicts hold little resemblance to their great grandparents who fought in 1939. They’ll fight and die, of course, for the their western masters, like they’ve done for the past 500 years (swedes, nazis, and now swedes and nazis together). Many of them are probably lacing their boots in excitement already, imagining themselves camouflaged in the snow with a rifle, easily picking off enemy soldiers, going all the way to the Urals this time. There’s a surprising number of men in Finland who never found any meaning in life except the army. Something particularly comforting, I assume, for a genotype defined by autism, loneliness, lack of imagination, crudeness, dullness, social aversion, lack of empathy, and an utter blind faith in authority figures.
Only this time there’s no homeland to defend, no women to protect (both have been whored off to the west and its satanism), and unlike 1939, the opponent will treat this as more than just an insignificant little skirmish.

Posted by: Mike | Apr 3 2023 21:09 utc | 58

@ james | Apr 3 2023 20:44 utc | 50
RHS is probably taking a break for one or two reasons:
– He grew tired of covering the same issues, in absence of substantial new real-world developments. (IMHO, I agreed with him. But, in the past 2 weeks, “decades” are happening on the diplomatic front.)
– He was annoyed by shadowbanned’s posts and a small number of people (me) engaging with shadowbanned (because, for me, while I agree with RHS and most regulars here on almost everything, I think I learn something from shadowbanned’s posts).
In case it’s “more #2 than #1”, sorry for (hopefully “temporarily”) robbing you of RHS contributions.

Posted by: natokraine | Apr 3 2023 21:11 utc | 60

Posted by: Anton Gorbatow | Apr 3 2023 21:06 utc | 57
Recent reports coming from Zelensky also indicate that he set “yet” more reinforcements to the vicinity of Bakhmut – and yet again talking about the counter-attack – around Bakhmut.
Wagner hopes to take the western parts of Bakhmut before any counter-offensive. I’m not sure what the weather currently and forecasted to be – it might be actually more or less solid ground quite soon. If the temperature is permanently positive celcius and any mud drying up in the sun and ice melts.
Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 3 2023 21:06 utc | 56
Everyone has their own opinion on these bridges over Dnieper, but I tend to agree to the extent that laws of universe dictate that the further west Russia goes to fight UAF, less logistical advantage they will have. The same applies in reverse for Nato-Ukraine. That’s a fact and most likely one that hasn’t been omitted in planning.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 3 2023 21:15 utc | 62

Anthony | Apr 3 2023 20:51 utc | 52
You are correct in that life is important in both war and peace; and that these are different times calling for different solutions. However, there is a difference between a path of retreat and path for surrender. I’m not certain that those who follow an open path for retreat will lose their courage, and if they do they’ll be fed back into the meat grinder, courage or not.
What seems to be needed is a formal path/mechanism for surrender that those throughout Ukraine can follow; to escape from the battlefield and from forced mobilization. One that can help the average Ukrainian (both military and civilian) tired of this mess to leave, even if that be a POW camp.
Perhaps, there are such paths out for the Ukrainians. I don’t know. DI don’t even know if the average Ukrainian wants to fight or leave.

Posted by: Jerr | Apr 3 2023 21:18 utc | 64

@ Ed | Apr 3 2023 19:04 utc | 37
Everyone should read the article, but I do have a bone to pick the author [Roger McKenzie], and with Counterpunch…
LOL. I haven’t read Counterpunch in years, and your insightful critique is quite effectively de-motivating. Thanks.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Apr 3 2023 21:20 utc | 66

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Apr 3 2023 21:12 utc | 61
Russian forces were superior to the native Ukraine army, they are not so superior to the current NATO backed Army. NATO is a formidable opponent, on every front, and people that complan about the slow-mo SMO do not appreciate what Russia is doing here and at what cost.
Most of the information out there, even political statements, are there in function of the information War which is an extension of the real War going on. So dont believe that Ukraine is depleted or that NATO has no ammo or that German industry has collapsed. It is there to make people overconfident and provoke mistakes.
NATO backed forces can make significant progress and inflict damage.
We in the West are in War-mode ever since February last year. State propaganda is allowed, arrests can be done without due process if connected to the War effort, informational War against opponents is allowed, false opposition to tame the masses etc. That this place still exists is only a confirmation that it is not that influential. We are just a bunch of nobodies commenting about the propaganda all day.

Posted by: alek_a | Apr 3 2023 21:33 utc | 68

[ Album ]
More videos that were filmed during the repulse of the repeated attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the positions of the Armed Forces in the Zaporozhye direction. The first attempt on March 15 was also unsuccessful.
On the frames, spot work by ATGMs on enemy equipment. In the second video, the Ukrainian cargo 300 is trying to move away from the battlefield in a pickup truck in an organized manner.
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/27603
Another ukro recon-in-force blown up near Zap. Or was this the main dish? Who knows, there are already so many promises this and last year. Actually this particular souther offensive has been promised ever since Russians walked out of Kherson in October.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 3 2023 21:37 utc | 70

@Jerr
Big difference between Bakhmut and Stalingrad. It was one HELL of a lot colder in Stalingrad in December and January than it is in Bakhmut in March and April.
Red Army didnt really need to close with the Germans at all. Just let the cold and lack of adequate nutrition kill them. And cold that brutal, especially for invaders who really weren’t dressed properly, destroys ones will to live let alone fight

Posted by: Callmelennie | Apr 3 2023 21:41 utc | 72

In a article in todays Counterpunch, Roger McKenzie, a reporter for the Morning Star, and the general secretary of Liberation, one of the oldest UK human rights organizations, writes a fairly decent commentary about the stated United States policy since 1997, known as “Full Spectrum Dominance (FSD).”
According to McKenzie, the United States behaves the way that it does on the international stage in order to safeguarding the profits of monopoly capital, which carries politicians in Washington around in its pockets like loose change.

Could have learned that from what people were writing a century ago. It was all there.
But has been forgotten.
A somewhat popular saying the collapse of the USSR goes like this:
“Everything they taught us about communism might have been false, but everything they said about capitalism is true”

Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 3 2023 21:44 utc | 74

Posted by: alek_a| 68
Sheesh, what a typical trooper you are, thinking NATO’s soldiers are better. The only thing they are better at is making ultra-expensive and short-lived warmongering equipment. We in the West are not at all in war-mode, just mostly financing this NATO proxy war and sending our old equipment, even museum pieces to Ukraine.
Obviously US and some of the EU countries who have legislated (woke-ism) hate thoughts and crimes did that to put their political enemies behind bars. Macron got called out, but the lady also did not hide her identity and for that she got 11 months?

Posted by: Arcticman | Apr 3 2023 21:48 utc | 76

Could it possibly be that we are in the middle of Zelensky’s spring offensive, but no one noticed ?
Good night all.

Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 3 2023 21:55 utc | 78

@Apollyon | Apr 3 2023 21:46 utc | 75
I rate the Liam Clancy version as the finest … of Waltzing Matilda ..
The horrors of war …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFCekeoSTwg
That said, I do have time for The Pogues … when in the mood

Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 3 2023 22:03 utc | 80

@Don Firineach
Outstanding performance by Liam Clancy.

Posted by: Apollyon | Apr 3 2023 22:11 utc | 82

⚡️ Ukrainian sources report explosions in Druzhkovka and Konstantinovka (under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces). An air alert has been declared in the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine .
⚡️A powerful explosion is reported in Odessa
Air raid alert in Odessa was not announced
@Slavyangrad

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 3 2023 22:24 utc | 84

Who are those two dancing on the bar …. must see this one … it is music night
Riverdance at the Eurovision Song Contest 30 April 1994, Dublin [8 mins]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0v_pu6miJ8

Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 3 2023 22:26 utc | 86

james@50….troll shock, not unlike shell shock, except one must force oneself to stop banging one’s head against the wall.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 3 2023 22:28 utc | 88

And when it comes time to invade Finland, it will be a pushover just like 1939.
Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | Apr 3 2023 17:26 utc | 7

It wasn’t a pushover in 1939.
It might be now — after the decades of decadent prosperity have taken their toll.
But most importantly, there will be no invasion, or at least not for a while.
In Ukraine Russia cares about the land and the people.
In a hypothetical war with Finland, it will only care about the land, and not for growing food (not that you can grow much in Finland), but purely in terms of military control. And we know what that means.
P.S. You will often see it commented that the Russian Empire expanded to such an enormous size by mostly fighting in order to ensure its own defense rather than with imperialistic goals, usually done to “expose Russian hypocrisy”.
But there is a lot of truth to it. It’s not absolutely true — e.g. Siberia and the Far East were taken in the quest towards expanding the fur trade profits. But it is true for a lot of the expansion in the southern and western directions. Crimea is a classic example — it is very trendy to decry the fate of the Crimean Tatars, but the historic reality is that a major reason Russia took control of that area was because it was inhabited by slave traders who were selling Slavs to the Ottomans, and end had to be put to that. And then in the aftermath WWII they were deported because they collaborated with the Nazis.
A lot of the early expansion was for defensive purposes — in the wide open Eastern European plane it is an eat-or-be-eaten situation. The only stable condition is for someone to control it all.
In the 19th century, when it was a serious consolidated empire, establishing defensible borders was a very explicit motivation — thus the push in the Caucasus area and the conquest of Central Asia all the way to the mountains of Iran and Afghanistan.
This is also why the Russian empire, later the USSR, and now Russia were so multi-ethnic — there was never any motivation to do settler colonialism with extermination of the locals and repopulation of their land. Which is what the Anglo-Saxons did everywhere they went and weren’t met with tropical diseases more formidable than their weapons. Control of the land for defensive purposes was sufficient. Later than turned out to be a major weakness though — it’s a big reason the USSR collapsed.
Now here is the problem for the current realities. A “defensible border” in the 19th century, a world without nukes and long-range standoff weapons, is not what a defensible border means today. And it has been that way for decades.
The US is protected by oceans and weak neighbors, but Russia is surrounded by hostile actors right on its land borders. So long term it will be secure only if expands to the ocean or the hostile actors around it are no longer hostile. If you look at the map, the Scandinavian peninsula is critical — right now that is NATO controlled, and that means, most importantly, the US subs have a free pass at attacking from the Arctic, which would be much more difficult if that whole area was controlled by Russia. This isn’t even an unprecedented situation — the Swedish Empire got too ambitious back in the days, the Russians defeated it, and that is how they ended up with Finland and the Baltics. But that was before the 19th century and the invention of nationalism, so what people lived there wasn’t a major issue.
So if you are Finland, the Baltics, and even Sweden and Norway, long term you had the following choices:
1) Maintain friendly relationships with Russia and live in peace and harmony
2) Go to war with Russia (as part of a larger coalition, of course) with the hope that you will defeat it once and for all. Which means Generalplan Ost V.2, because even if it is Balkanized as some are dreaming now, it will reassemble eventually for entirely natural reasons, and come back with a vengeance
3) If you go for 2), but fail, Russia will have to one day erase you from the map, and take over. It is not going to be Putin in power forever, someone much more decisive may come one day. Perhaps with a mustache and a pipe in his hand.
Option 1) should have been the obvious choice, but no, they just can’t help themselves…
Finnish Russophobia is a particularly interesting example. Sweden fought a lot of wars with Russia back in the days, and was destroyed as a major power as a result of those. It’s understandable in their case. But Finland? Why? First, there had never been any tradition of Finnish statehood at all until Russia took over those lands from the Swedes. There would have been no Finland without that — the Swedes didn’t treat the Finns very well (they are not the same at all — Germanic Indo-European vs. Finno-Ugric people, the languages have absolutely nothing in common, etc.) and would have assimilated them eventually. Then there is the Russian Civil War, and yes, the Bolsheviks tried to recover Finland, but what is “Russia” to blame for here? That land was part of the empire previously, it was natural to recover it, and the Bolsheviks didn’t intend to Russify the Finns at all — that was still when they were in the “world revolution” phase, and korenization policies would follow shortly within what they controlled. The Winter War is usually presented as unprovoked aggression, but it really wasn’t — it was known Finland would ally with the Nazis, Leningrad was truly indefensible with the old borders, and they were offered double the land elsewhere in exchange. Quite reasonable on balance. Especially given what happened shortly after that –Finnish Nazis invaded and sieged Leningrad, and it would have probably fallen had it not been for the border having been moved as a result of that previous war. Then when WWII ended Finland wasn’t disappeared from the map, even though it could have been, but made neutral and enjoyed the benefits of trading with both sides and living in peace. Why would you throw all that away and seriously jeopardize your existence in the long term just for the sake of satisfying your primitive urge to feel racially superior towards your neighbors to the east?

Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 3 2023 22:40 utc | 90

Interestingly, in 1956 Russia negotiated the return of the southern group (Kunashir, Iturup & Urup) and the Americans immediately forbade it, ordering the Japanese to claim more, which the Americans knew Russia would refuse . . .
Posted by: John Marks | Apr 3 2023 21:57 utc | 79

1956 was before SLBMs and modern ship-launched cruise missiles.
It is much more critical to control the whole island chain now.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 3 2023 22:44 utc | 92

In response to Pacifica_Advocate@30,
I don’t know. This oft repeated maxim always struck me as being primarily applicable to combat situations where failure in battle inevitably meant certain death for the troops and it would appear that the very notion of soldiers laying down their arms and staying alive was never factored into the equation. Surrounded troops might fight to the death, but I’d expect that it’s far more likely that they, eventually, negotiate terms for surrender, if given the opportunity to do so.
In any case, I think there are more immediate and practical considerations at play when opting for a partial encirclement. For one, as in the case with Artemovsk, if you are able to intercept supplies and reinforcements somewhat effectively, you potentially get to destroy more enemy forces and equipment on the move than you’ve trapped in the cauldron to begin with. AFU even attempted to rotate troops in and out of the encirclement, part of which got destroyed along the way every time. In some cases, they got completely wiped out.
With a full encirclement, you wouldn’t have this sort of turkey-shoot from both flanks on troops who aren’t in a position to shoot back. Instead, you’d have all of these reinforcements flanking your troops while they’re trying to prevent break-out attacks, since a good few of your positions would be sandwiched between enemy positions. Your troops would also be locked where they are, unable to reposition without potentially breaking the encirclement or getting themselves surrounded. The front would have to be moved far past the intended cauldron to avoid this situation, as it was with Azovstahl, and you’d have to dedicate part of your front-line troops to keeping the enemy in the cauldron while the front moves on without them.
So it ends up being a big commitment for a fairly static paycheck, whereas with the door open you leave it to your opponent to decide how big the pot gets and how much you’re willing to stake.

Posted by: Skiffer | Apr 3 2023 22:55 utc | 94

Posted by: Skiffer | Apr 3 2023 22:55 utc | 94
Prigozhin actually made a comment today that it was actually Surovikin, who designed the “Bakhmut meat grinder” concept in the first place.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 3 2023 22:59 utc | 96

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 3 2023 21:06 utc | 56
Thank God for your sane, wise presence here. I wonder if you know what a tremendous public service you are doing – and moreover doing so with such patience, knowledge and forbearance.
Posted by: Mexicana | Apr 3 2023 21:20 utc | 65
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I second the motion.
There are a few others who belong on the same list. I will add them up and post it as a small token of appreciation.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Apr 3 2023 23:18 utc | 98

@ Jo Dominich | Apr 3 2023 22:52 utc | 93 &
@ Apollyon | Apr 3 2023 22:11 utc | 82
Glad you appreciated it. Bob Dylan regarded Liam Clancy as the finest balladeer he had ever heard. So do I.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 3 2023 23:24 utc | 100