There is some good news

Former Norwegian M109A3GN self-propelled howitzers supplied to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by Great Britain are sinking in the mud.

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/59225

Posted by: Norwegian | May 1 2023 11:14 utc | 203

Wagner wasn’t prominent in Ukraine until much later in the conflict. When Mariupol was taken where was Wagner, when Severodonetsk and Lysychansk were taken where was Wagner? Never heard of Wagner with regards to the advances in Kherson, Zaporizhya or Kharkiv. First I heard of Wagner was when Soledar was taken, and then of course now with Bakhmut. But that was after Russia’s retreat and the gathering of the 300’000 troops specially for the SMO. Sure seems like Wagner was involved with 10% of the operations but is involved with like 90% of the talk with regards to the fighting.
But anyway, Russia has the industrial capacity and weaponry at hand to win this war, against Ukraine and all of NATO, as Martyanov says all the time. But when Russia actually decides to fight is anyone’s guess, until then SloMo.
And the 300’000 troops were brought in to prevent further Ukrainian offensives, because now there are enough boots on the ground to handle all Ukraine’s probes, so there are no weak areas where the Ukies could achieve success. All of Ukraine’s past advances happened where the Russians retreated, not where the Russians were defeated.

Posted by: gT | May 1 2023 11:21 utc | 205

The UN Population Division’s World Population Prospects (WPP) Report – a biennial – was released in mid-2022.
Current projections (taking into account the war, to an extent) indicate Ukraine’s total population declining to ~20 million by 2100. Now, this includes Crimea and the four oblasts annexed by Russia. Today, those 5 regions collectively house anywhere between ~5-8 million (pre-war, 10 million). They are not going to be returned to Ukraine. This means that by 2100 Ukraine (the nation-state) will have a population of about 15 million.
In 2021, a year *before* the war started, Ukraine’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was 1.16, well below replacement (2.1), and also well below that of the EU, US, and Russia. Much of the developing world is facing the problem of below-replacement rate TFRs, this is true – Europe and Canada are dealing with it by immigration. Japan and South Korea have yet to figure out what works for them, but they are highly advanced (technologically), wealthy countries.
China will experience a breath-taking, never before seen in history halving of its population from 1.4 billion to ~700 million by 2100, but 700 million is still a lot of people, and China has shifted up the technology and economic development curve. To be sure, this massive and rapid of a decline will cause all sorts of issues/problems/pain, but China will have the resources to deal with it.
Russia’s population (excluding Crimea and the four annexed oblasts) is expected to decline from about 145 million today to ~115 million by 2100. Russia’s TFR of ~1.5 is also below replacement, and about the same as the EU, but significantly higher than Ukraine, Japan, and South Korea. One factor in Russia’s favour is that it has a lot of experience with management of a massive geographical footprint with a relatively small population (thinly dispersed outside a few key cities) – somewhat similar to Canada or Australia in this sense, but with the crucial difference that Russia shares land borders with 14 countries, including the sensitive NATO and Central Asian countries (where the US and China compete for influence, and the US has biolabs). As well, it has close maritime boundaries with the US and Japan, making its task significantly more complex than that of Canada or Australia.
Ukraine’s land mass is about 93% of Afghanistan, so roughly the same size. Pre-war, both countries also had roughly equivalent total population (~41-44 million). But TFR is the key – Afghanistan’s population is expected to increase to ~110 million by 2100 (80 million by 2050).
Both Afghanistan and Ukraine are endowed with significant, valuable natural resources. The great powers and resource-hungry powers are going to continue to fight over these. Despite being much poorer, Afghanistan actually has greater agency – each generation of Taliban (or other political elites) gets more sophisticated (and better educated too, not just madrassas) re: playing all the powers involved in their country off of each other (US, China, Russia, India, Pakistan, UAE, Saudi, Iran). They have 100s of years experience figuring out how to optimize the management of transactional relationships with a host of folks “in it for themselves”. Elite capture by one country is just not possible in Afghanistan. A population of 100 million will give them heft, despite poor GDP/capita and HDI indicators.
Ukraine, IMO, has almost no agency at this point – “elite capture” is complete.
So, whilst most folks are focused on the war, and the minutiae of daily missile counts, demographics (and the formal annexation of the four oblasts and Crimea) basically tell you that the game is already over. Large scale kinetic conflict for at most 1-2 more years (if that), followed possibly by LIC (think the Kashmir region) for decades, until a contact line/Line of Control becomes a de facto border.

Posted by: Yashuo | May 1 2023 11:38 utc | 207

Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President is against any format of negotiations with Russia, Zelensky will never sign the Minsk agreements or the Istanbul truce.
At Bankova, they believe that any truce / freeze of the war is beneficial for the Kremlin, and for Ukraine this is a defeat.
We will continue to demand full military assistance from the West, or Biden’s presidential campaign will be associated with the defeat of his policy in Ukraine.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17552

In the United States, support for Ukraine continues to fall, and this “should be of concern to American politicians,” according to the Brookings Institution.
So he comments on a study by the University of Maryland and Ipsos about how Americans relate to the war in Ukraine.
1. The level of expectations that Russia is losing and Ukraine is winning is falling, decreased by 11% and amounted to 37%.
The number of those who are confident in the victory of Kyiv fell over the same period by 17% to 26%.
2. The willingness of the US population to bear the costs of supporting Kyiv is falling – in the form of rising energy prices, inflation and losses of American troops.
The survey shows a drop in all three indicators by 9-15%
3. The majority of respondents demand that support for Kyiv be limited to one or two years – 46%. Those who offer to do it as much as necessary – 38%.
“There was a noticeable partisan split on this issue: 62% of Republicans wanted to stay on course for one to two years, compared to 51% of Democrats who wanted to stay on course for as long as it took.”

https://t.me/rezident_ua/17547

Posted by: Down South | May 1 2023 11:58 utc | 209

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | May 1 2023 11:04 utc | 207

Larry Johnson is a clown. His “analysis” is slapdash and jocular, and rife with personal complaints and vendettas. The only reason people are listening to him is because he’s not a raving neocon and he seems to be on the right general side of things, which just goes to show you how desperate people are for the truth. If people like Johnson, or that raving idiot Dima from the Military Summary Channel, can attain to minor celebrity status due to the sheer fact of not being bought-and-paid-for neocon shills, that is an important revelation about our day and age.

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | May 1 2023 12:16 utc | 211

Posted by: William Gruff | May 1 2023 10:59 utc | 205
Human suicide munitions. Just add meth, lots and lots of meth.
Interesting posts on UA demographic collapse and the future implied by their own energy projects.
Thanks, as ever.

Posted by: anon2020 | May 1 2023 12:37 utc | 213

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 1 2023 10:50 utc | 204
You completely misread Russia probably thinking it is like the USA where military has control…….but if you understood the USSR and its structures you would know the Red Army was totally under political control even when Yeltsin collapsed USSR in 1991.
It was Heydrich who played on the “Coup of Brumaire” fears of Stalin by framing Soviet generals like Tuchachevsky in 1937 and liquidating 38,000 Soviet officers and commissars………but Prigozhin is hardly going to cause trouble – his Wagner Group is a cutout for GRU.
You might ask why the CIA has a private and secret army of 60,000 – and why DHS and IRS have been stockpiling weapons in USA and creating ammunition shortages by stockpiling…….
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-inside-militarys-secret-undercover-army-1591881
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=341bsqDpO3M
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2014/jun/27/james-buchal/government-stockpiling-hundreds-millions-rounds-am/
https://gunpermitcenter.com/latest-news/post-office-buys-a-ton-of-ammunition/

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 1 2023 13:09 utc | 215

There was no justification for the US in Iraq just as there is no justification for what Russia is doing in Ukraine.
Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | May 1 2023 8:51 utc | 187
I do not know if anyone already answered that but I’m going to try without all the antisemitic bs.
Yes, Noam, Russia had way more justifications to invade Ukraine than US had to invade Iraq.
US didn’t have any reasons but lies.
As for Russia,
First, in 2014 in Kiev a coup orchestrated from the outside overthrew a legit government that was in favour of Russia and replaced it by a fake and hostile one. Remember when Nuland said “Fuck the EU” ?
Secondly, since 2014, this new hostile and illegitimate gov never ceased bombing Eastern Ukraine and Russian speaking people, just along the borders of Russia, killing thousands of them.
Thirdly, Russia tried to negociate with this fake Ukrainian gov by signing Minsk agreements I and II. Kiev never respected these agreements and didn’t care anyway : they just went on bombing.
Fourthly, NATO, a supranational organisation by nature hostile towards Russia never stops spreading closer and closer to Russian borders even so Russian continuously asked them not to do so and drew a red line in Ukraine.
We could debate about the legitimacy of the SMO, but it can only be done on the basis of true facts, not on an the imaginary statement of yours.
Because that would be the same to claim Russia has no reasons to be concerned about NATO installing nuclear warheads in Ukraine while US made a scene about Russia installing warheads in Cuba in 62.

Posted by: xiao pignouf | May 1 2023 14:38 utc | 217

Posted by: xiao pignouf | May 1 2023 14:38 utc | 225
Valiant effort, Xiao, but I don’t think that Noam is looking for education. He knows what he thinks he knows already.

Posted by: irish al | May 1 2023 14:43 utc | 219

Posted by: shadowbanned | May 1 2023 14:47 utc | 228

In the last 14 months the US has basically made official the alliance it entered into with the Nazis in March 1945, and from here on you can expect Ukrainization of the West, and by extension, open (re-)Nazification. Including of the US.

Here are a couple of things for – Noam A. Larkey | May 1 2023 8:51 utc | 187 – to read. This is from New York’s Village Voice, so perhaps it may make it through Noam’s Overton window.
Mykola Lebed
To further support your post, Noam may be interested in Reinhard Gehlen.

Posted by: lex talionis | May 1 2023 15:07 utc | 221

[187]
The device of false equivalence suggests you are illogical. US invaded Iraq because UN Sanctions were due to expire and Rusdia and France would veto extension. That is the reason for the attack.
In the case of Ukraine which had spent 8 years murdering civilians because they were culturally Russian and NATO had built huge fortifications which provided Russia with Art 51 justification under UN Charter plus Responsibility to Protect as Samantha Power would say

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | May 1 2023 15:18 utc | 223

Posted by: BillB | May 1 2023 13:03 utc | 222
The exposed Iraqi left flank was begging to be attacked, and even if the Iraqi’s had realised the danger they were virtually a static army due to Allied air-supremacy. Ukraine is different, in both ground scale, likely axes of attack, and ISR capabilities of the ‘defender’. A ‘surprise’ move would only open a very short window of opportunity, given Russia’s strategic redeployment and strike capabilities, and unlikely to guarantee anything more than a temporary advantage.
The idea of big mechanised offensives achieving stalemate breaking operational success is now as redundant as the WW1 ‘Big Push’ became. Reconnaissance complexes with deep-strike capabilities, using real-time intelligence has made every stage of launching an offensive a dangerous proposal, especially the preparation phase. Commanders are edging ever closer to the SA capabilities wargamers have, who struggle to replicate historical scenarios that rely on the fog of war. Chaos and confusion still reign today when things go loud, but militaries are becoming painfully aware that technology is a, very keen, two-edged sword that robs them of some of their most cherished and institutionalised muscle-memory.

Posted by: Milites | May 1 2023 15:30 utc | 225

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | May 1 2023 12:06 utc | 218
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kenvVK3U7qc
Spoiler alert: the Germans have their supply lines shot to pieces have to surrender. Prescient for Ukrainian prospects perhaps?

Posted by: Milites | May 1 2023 16:16 utc | 227

https://t.me/yurasumy/8471
On the explosion in Pavlograd
After reviewing numerous photos, including those sent to me personally, the location of the fire and explosion is either on or behind the tracks northeast of the PCP – the Pavlograd chemical plant. This is confirmed by friends of Pavlograd that the factory is on fire now….
https://t.me/rusengineer/812
The new tactics of the Russian army disrupt preparations for the Kiev offensive.
The use of planning bombs on the positions of the Ukrainian armed forces forces forces the enemy to bring the long-range S-300 systems closer to the LBS. The enemy tries to push back the UMPC launch zones. To cover the S-300 from the interior of Ukraine, the Ukrainian armed forces are forced to take anti-aircraft systems Osa and Tor of Soviet manufacture and the German Gepard. At this moment, the Lancet appears on the arena.

Posted by: la bouteille | May 1 2023 16:46 utc | 229

Biswappriya Purkayast @196
Thank you for this info. Since last night it has been very difficult to follow up with whatever was going on. After all we have so little information.We just grasp at the little straws thrown to us from western owned media. We have to apply the logic, but military experts we are not
I have read the article on the Strategic Culture, it is good, also I followed Brian Barletic ( I have read him since before when he was the land destroyer covering Syria).. Still we do not know anything really.
Thank you, this has became impossible as my big fat orange cat decided he has to type himself, disaster, ehhhh

Posted by: stranger | May 1 2023 16:55 utc | 231

Posted by: unimperator | May 1 2023 9:20 utc | 190
I rate Millitary Summary higher on the credibility scale, tho’ some here have claimed the channel operator is biased. Commentary synthesizes (mostly ISW-informed LOL!) UA and RU (mostly MOD-informed) map updates with relevant SWOT assessment—value added that’s missing from, say, Weeb and Smoothie sitreps. Best of all MS is far easier on the ears than Defense Politics Asia, which initially merited my attention by spring ’22 satellite focus on ATO legacy trench network).
A year later, after all Stoltenberg trash talk about territory gains, combat CONVICTS, attrition (casualties÷mystery mobilizations), missing materiel, MS rolls up all logistic advantages lost by UA in one event. You may be referring to RF’s Kherson-to-Nikolaev caper last week that decimated UA marine brigades on the western front. (btw, JCC covered ports: Odesa, Chornomorsk, Pivdenny; ahead March 18 renewal, Zelensk* demanded but did not receive an “extension” to more ports and a 1 year policy.)
This morning, MS focus is on additional UA munition “supply line end-points” destruction that will radically handicap the Big Offensive.

Posted by: sln2002 | May 1 2023 17:06 utc | 233

Hearing (at last) lots of rumbling for Ze’s mortal dethronement.
In general this may indeed denote a boiling over point occurring, deepening and widening.
In particular this was long past realizing and due and could have saved many (MANY) military-civilian lives young and old these cruel past long months.
Letting these fascist elites go on their merry way is this war’s greatest blunder.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | May 1 2023 17:16 utc | 235

Posted by: shadowbanned | May 1 2023 14:47 utc | 228
“The alternative is nuclear missiles situated there”
Of course that is not the only alternative. Baltic states have no nuclear missiles.
I don’t think Bulgaria has. Kaliningrad of course does have them, because Russia must defend this exclave, where nobody spoke russian before 1944. It really needs more riot police to defend it than anything else.

Posted by: Membrum Virile | May 1 2023 18:04 utc | 237

That is why I follow Karloff1, thank you so much for all your unselfish contributions.
To give us a bigger perspective where all this is going on a long range.Much appreciated.
Last night I was so seduced into following the fraction of this SMO that I neglected everything else\ like an idiot .
The bigger picture beckons, and honestly I am brought back to my senses now. My orange cat is not angry with me anymore.
I am actually cooking and tidying again, normal return to normal life.As long as it takes.
Thank you Mr K. There is much bigger picture to follow on than who is killing who at the moment.I went out of my mind temporarily.
Thank you, Karloff

Posted by: stranger | May 1 2023 18:34 utc | 239

What Russia’s recent missile and guided bomb attacks have revealed is the how and why Ukraine’s counter-offensive is going to fail. Russia is closely monitoring how Ukraine is accumulating its forces into large units, and it’s tracking the deployment of those forces, both the men, and their heavy equipment, including their vehicles.
Russia has produced and accumulated near the front lines a large stockpile of drones, missiles, guided bombs, and artillery shells. Russia will use them on the Ukrainian forces once they are assembled and begin their attack, and Russia will have positioned its reserves in the areas the AFU attacks concentrate on.
Ukraine can bend the Russian lines, and eventually narrowly break them in spots, but that will cost them the bulk of their tracked vehicles, and most of their troops, and it will leave their artillery and air defenses exhausted. Russia would then concentrate on methodically and efficiently eliminating the remnants of the attacking force, and also use the opportunity to advance along the long line of contact against Ukrainian units that could no longer be reinforced, or delivered a lot of supplies.

Posted by: Babel-17 | May 1 2023 19:00 utc | 241

If you take a stroll through Prighozin’s admittedly very colourful career, you will notice right away that he has no military service in his background. But suddenly everyone wants to hear from the CEO of Wagner Group, and he must be listened to for his priceless strategic insights.
Most if not all of Wagner Group are former military, and Prighozin probably has the good sense to listen to the advice of his senior NCO’s on battlefield tactics. Perhaps they could use more ammunition, perhaps not; regardless, he would hardly be allowed to voice such public criticism of the war effort if he did not have the tacit approval of the Kremlin. And that’s not because it agrees with him that the Russian Army is wet and useless and ruled by demagogues interested only in lining their pockets. The Russian Army is doing just fine, thank you, and walloping the Ukrainians in slow motion is probably quite a balancing act – too much of a push and the west will squeal that the Ukrainians are being slaughtered like pigs and the west absolutely must commit its own forces to battle. But the slow attrition of everything in Ukraine big enough to carry a gun goes on apace. At the same time, western supplies are being drawn down to the point it would be ill-equipped itself for a protracted conflict. If you think about it, these are the objectives of the west against Russia, in reverse. Ukraine is being demilitarized, and NATO’s own warfighting capabilities are being bled down. There is no particular hurry for a victory on the Russian side. If NATO ever makes up its mind that the Ukrainian cause is hopeless and that it must directly intervene, it may find to its surprise that there are no good options for that.

Posted by: Mark | May 1 2023 20:09 utc | 243

BillB
Yes I had thought that. There’s also the possibility that the USAF will intervene over Donbas and Kherson. A sort of surprise assist with the airforces.
I tend to think that the Russians can pick off Ukie Ammo dumps and fuel convoys though.
The Russians can dump CBU munitions on these mad dashes by advancing brigades of Leopards and Challengers.
One other possibility remains though. The Bradley is a very good vehicle for urban assaults. There may be a city the Ukies have chosen to pick off and surround. Like Tokmak. Trap a sizeable force there and force a surrender. No mad dash to the coast needed.

Posted by: Wokechoke | May 2 2023 4:43 utc | 245

stranger
Late to the party. You read like a feminine faggot. your bullshit like you just woke from a slumber. fucking trolls.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 2 2023 13:14 utc | 247

Today is the gruesome anniversary of the Odessa killing of many ( 50 at least) in a fire set on Union Trade Building.
Many have burned to death, some who jumped through the windows or tried to escape were clobbered to death. The witness Journalist says Ukrainians were filming the crime on their phones, sitting in the cafe opposite.
This is above words I am capable of.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230502/journo-i-can-be-jailed-for-treason-in-ukraine-for-telling-truth-about-2014-odessa-massacre-1109983490.html

Posted by: stranger | May 2 2023 14:59 utc | 249