Orban speech with English subtitles
https://twitter.com/HungaryBased/status/1651971665973108740?cxt=HHwWiICzlcne_ewtAAAA
The Ukraine war and its peripherals are about move the center of power in Europe from Germany France to a Polish Ukraine common space.
I have noted before that the Pole Ukraine partnership physically cuts old Europe off from Russia. With the Nordstream pipes cut, old Europe has no energy umbilical cord even if new/future governments try to renew relations with Russia. With the Gas hub deal with Turkey, I expect Russia it looking at it in much the same way as Orban.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 28 2023 17:41 utc | 3

Just Observing | Apr 28 2023 17:26 utc | 1
There is video of of a Ukroid AD missile hitting a building. S-300 I think. I guess plotting an intercept point doesn’t work when there is a tall building between the launcher and the intercept point.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 28 2023 17:53 utc | 5

PROPOSITION(S):
Donbas is simply Bakhmut writ large.
Though RF will continue to press sufficiently to produce UKR resistance, Russian forces will not significantly advance until UKR stops sending forces to oppose them.
That is, Russia prefers to fight NATO *from* the Donbas rather than fighting across Ukraine to reach NATO. Fighting from the Donbas neutralizes NATO aircraft (too far) and missile systems (too easily shot down and devastatingly replied to).
This is why they do not take out the bridges. Not because they want to use them (primarily) but because they funnel NATO resources into the kill zone. If we see RF blow the bridges, it is more likely to be if UKR moves to use them in a mass retreat from Donbas.
The most problematic move (for RF) that NATO could make would be to have UKR withdraw its remaining resources to defend a line somewhere West of the Dniepr, to protect what they value most (Kiev & the West) and especially what NATO values most: Odessa.
This would challenge the RF to try to cross the Dniepr to meet a NATO force in Ukraine that is not yet completely broken. The current NATO/UKR fight-for-every-inch in Donbas strategy is perfectly congenial to the Russians.
Russia will not want to fight for (and destroy) Odessa, and without Odessa there’s little incentive to cross the Dniepr at all. Controlling the Danube / connecting Hungary would be nice, but not essential.
The only way Russia will take Odessa is if and after the Ukrainian military potential is completely exhausted. Why hold Ukraine territory West of the Dniepr before then?
Better that the West–which broke Ukraine–should pay 20 billion a month to arm, feed, and support it.

Posted by: Paul Damascene | Apr 28 2023 17:59 utc | 7

LOL
AFter 9 friggin years Russia is still unable to protect friggin Donetsk!
At least nine dead in Ukrainian shelling of Donetsk – monitor
Kiev’s forces have subjected the city to massive rocket artillery fire, destroying a passenger bus and killing multiple civilians
https://swentr.site/russia/575488-donetsk-bus-hospital-civilians/
What did I tell you Yes-men bootlickers here? Where are you now huh? All silent as usual, you should have listened.
This sites’ credibility will go down the drain with the Bagdad-Bob-all-are-doing-fine-Russia-is-winning reporting.
And now another top rank military leader have been sacked
The Russian government sacked Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev from the deputy defence minister’s post, the news agency Reuters reported on Friday (April 28) citing media reports.
https://www.wionews.com/world/ukraine-war-butcher-of-mariupol-mikhail-mizintsev-sacked-as-russian-deputy-defence-minister-report-586990
Half you guys need to be on med with your absurd views that the war is going just fine for Russia LOL!

Posted by: Zbanon | Apr 28 2023 18:04 utc | 9

Russia has been roatating lots of people in and out, it could also be used for training rather than punishment. A second front or a heart attack would cause problems if they don’t have enough experience. There is close to zero people on the planet that have ever run a battle this large. Just one 155m shell weighs 100 pounds. Keeping 350 000 guys fully functioning at this high tempo is no small task,

Posted by: OohCanada | Apr 28 2023 18:20 utc | 11

@9 it’s a shame indeed. But I think @7 Paul gives a nice overview of russian strategy.
You’ll note protecting civilians isn’t priority number one. Losses among them are acceptable in pursuit of long term security through military victory. And frankly that is ukraine bombing it’s own citizens its supposedly protecting. Russia doesn’t make them that.
War is hell as they say.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 28 2023 18:28 utc | 13

“You’ll note protecting civilians isn’t priority number one. Losses among them are acceptable in pursuit of long term security through military victory.”
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 28 2023 18:28 utc | 12
What “long term security” when Russia is being shelled and bombed too – when Ukrainian drones are making it to Moscow and when Ukrainians pull off assassinations in Russia too? The security situation in Donbass and Russia has worsened and there is no sign of it improving. There won’t be anything left in Donbass if this keeps up long term – the people and the infrastructure are being whittled away which was the goal of the puppet Ukrainian regime in the first place.
There’s no sign that Russia is successfully achieving its main goals, and the fighting is leaving totally destroyed cities in its wake while Ukraine forces *still* have strongholds in the Donbass.

Posted by: MiniMo | Apr 28 2023 18:42 utc | 15

Posted by: Zbanon | Apr 28 2023 18:04 utc | 9
1st link is RT news. Bombing donetsk achieve nothing on a strategic point of view since the beginning of the SMO. The goal is to force Russian forces to exhaust themselves at defending it, it has not materialized.
2nd link is VOA (voice of America) in disguise, therefore whatever they claim is at least half truth, more probably pure propaganda based on no fact at all.
let’s say I’m far from being convinced by this.

Posted by: w | Apr 28 2023 18:56 utc | 17