Front-line summary (https://t.me/olegtsarov/6081) April 26
By Artemovsk. The Wagnerites are close to blocking the intersection in the area of ​​Yubileinaya and Tchaikovsky streets, but so far the information that this has already happened is ahead of events. In any case, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to receive reinforcements and supplies on primers that are not under the control of PMCs. Yesterday’s information that the Wagnerites entered Khromovo was also premature – so far there are no significant changes in Bogdanovka, Orekhovo-Vasilyevka, Ivanovsky (Red) or Khromovo. Syrsky explained that the holding of the front by the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Artemivsk excludes the enemy from reaching the flank and rear of their garrisons in the Lisichansk and Donetsk directions and the withdrawal from the city would create a tangible threat. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have something to counter our future attacks: they have about 80,000 personnel and equipment concentrated in this area.
On the Avdeevka front, our troops stormed the position near Nevelskoy after many hours of battle, and the assault operations of the RF Armed Forces west of Novobakhmutovka are also continuing – there are local successes and little progress.
There is no news from other directions, the line of combat is unchanged.
APU fired mortars at an excavator in the Belgorod region, the driver was wounded. A UAV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine dropped an explosive device in Donetsk, there is a wounded man. Ours, in turn, launched Geraniums at facilities in the Zaporozhye region and Dnepropetrovsk.
Another exchange of prisoners took place. 40 to 40, plus Russia gave Ukraine 4 seriously wounded Ukrainian Armed Forces. Among the prisoners who were handed over to Kyiv, there are participants in the battles at Azovstal, we also gave away a couple of incomprehensible civilians, while civilians are not returned to us at all.
Another inmate of Azovstal, Major Krotevich of the Azov terrorist battalion, who was traded by Russia, told The Washington Post that Ukraine is ready to seize small Russian towns to use them as leverage to reclaim territories. But the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Kuleba, told NATO what they should do: in 2023, name the dates for Kyiv to join the alliance. At the same time, Ukraine does not need an action plan with indicators of compliance with NATO requirements – they just need to be included in the composition.
Meanwhile, Zelensky got through to Xi Jinping. After almost a month of delay, this conversation no longer looked like the fulfillment of the US demand. Zelensky’s spokesman said that the Ukrainian and Chinese peace plans found common ground, but he was clearly too hasty because Zelensky immediately declared that peace would not be achieved through territorial compromises. By the way, Beijing has appointed the former Chinese ambassador to Russia as a special representative for “peace consultations” in Ukraine – you must admit, this says a lot. The Chinese side presented Xi Jinping’s phrase from the conversation that there can be no winners in a nuclear war. Sounds like a warning to Zelensky not to flirt.
In any case, everything will be decided at the front, and, according to Prigozhin, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will go on a counteroffensive in the first half of May, when the fields dry up after the last rains. They have everything for this, except for good weather. The Ukrainian garrison in Zaporozhye is estimated to be over 50,000 strong, including Western-trained soldiers, and new equipment, including tanks. There are up to 80,000 people in the Artyomovsk region, of which some have already gone to the city and are lost. In the Dnepropetrovsk region, it costs at least 100-150 thousand, away from the front and in a good place to quickly help your people in the right area. Based on this, I think that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a plan of attacks in several directions. The reserves will go where the Ukrainian General Staff sees an opportunity to push through our defenses. If we give it a chance. We have approximately 113 tactical battalion groups in the Zaporizhzhya direction and 205 in the Donetsk direction, that is, from 190 to 286 thousand people of reserves who are not currently participating in hostilities. If this is true, then Russia can cope with any Ukrainian invasion with such forces, if it disposes of them correctly.
https://t.me/TXDPR/6479

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 27 2023 7:28 utc | 203

Due West | Apr 26 2023 16:36 utc | 32
It’s funny but the Irish have been asking that question for quite a while now.
The sooner the anglo heart beats its last the better.
Ha ha ha. The Irish don’t know their own history of conquest and occupation by the Vikings and their subsequent inroads into Britain, including those from Ireland and Normandy.
But the English, they’re so evil!
Now they’re being invaded by the third world ,but they’re too insipid to stand up for themselves.
But the English…
Sing another tune pal, or get some balls and stop whining.

Posted by: Microdigger | Apr 27 2023 7:36 utc | 205

[ Album ]
At night, the Russian Armed Forces launched a missile attack on the Admiralty building in Nikolaev. Local authorities report that four Kalibr cruise missiles have arrived.
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/29106
No details, but 4 Kalibers on one building (complex?) sounds like important, another mercenary base perhaps.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 27 2023 7:47 utc | 207

Demilitarization in action:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bLcv5DeB420&pp=ygUVIHImdSBsYW5jZXQgbG9pdGVyaW5n

Posted by: blueswede | Apr 27 2023 8:08 utc | 209

So they know exactly where 50k troops are, with vehicles and all the rest of the logistics, but they’re never attacked before they attack. Then they suddenly teleport and surprise the Russian general staff again and again. But when the general staff orders attacks, like in Ugledar, they never know where the enemy is, they fall under artillery rain, they lose people and tanks and retreat. How does this system work?
Posted by: rk | Apr 27 2023 7:44 utc | 207

Will you stop with the concern trolling? Didn’t they send thousands of cruise missiles at targets much further away from the frontlines than where those 50K are?
If they are allowing the staging of Ukrainian forces near the front, that’s all part of the grand master plan and there is a very good reason for it.
It is always preferable to allow yourself to be attacked with a blitzkrieg than to isolate the battlefield and destroy the enemy in the rear. That is standard military theory and what all the textbooks say.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 27 2023 8:25 utc | 211

Zaror | Apr 27 2023 5:57 utc | 195
Ukraine has been carrying out these small cross-river ops for months, and while technically east of the Dnipro River, they still have tributaries between them and the rest of Kherson.

Posted by: Goingo | Apr 27 2023 9:13 utc | 213

Zaror | Apr 27 2023 5:57 utc | 195
Ukraine has been carrying out these small cross-river ops for months, and while technically east of the Dnipro River, they still have tributaries between them and the rest of Kherson.
That´s no news.

Posted by: Goingo | Apr 27 2023 9:16 utc | 215

Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov announced the depletion of the Soviet air defense system in Ukraine.
According to him, stocks of missiles are being depleted, and new ones are not being produced. The way out is to update the system with Western models.
“We have a Soviet system, to which the stocks of missiles are depleted. If they are not produced in our country, and are available only in countries in which we cannot take them, then we need to replenish them with something else. With what? Western air defense systems. It has already been decided in principle what systems they are, and now we need to increase their number and the number of missiles for them,” Reznikov said in an interview with RBC Ukraine.
He also recalled that aviation is also used as part of the air defense system and hinted at the need to supply Ukraine with Western fighters.
“That is, a modern 4++ generation aircraft as a full-fledged closed air defense system. Because then it will close the gaps, the failures of the Soviet-style systems we have,” Reznikov said.
-Ukrainian channel Strana
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/43523
Shifting to Patriot or NASAMS is effectively a downgrade from S-300 and TOR-systems. Maybe the lack of AD is now yet another reason for the still delayed counter-offensive. Losing 4 S-300 launchers must REALLY hurt, if it’s true, waiting confirmation on that.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 27 2023 9:23 utc | 217

DDGeopolitics – “Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics, has been fired. He held this position from September 24, 2022, after Army General Bulgakov was fired.”
In peacetime, pleasing your superiors leads to high rank. In wartime results count aka ‘the battle decides’ and turnover is much higher.
Anyone know what the Ukrainian turnover rate has been at high level?

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Apr 27 2023 9:42 utc | 219

“… Another exchange of prisoners took place. … Among the prisoners who were handed over to Kyiv, there are participants in the battles at Azovstal, we also gave away a couple of incomprehensible civilians, while civilians are not returned to us at all. …”
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 27 2023 7:28 utc | 204
Is there any indication of who these civilians are and what their background is?

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 27 2023 9:51 utc | 221

https://serbia.postsen.com/world/147246/The-Ukrainian-secret-service-tried-to-kill-Putin-with-a-drone.html
The Ukrainian secret service tried to kill Putin with a drone
The Ukrainian secret service, as BILD’s research claims, tried to kill Russian President Vladimir Putin with a kamikaze drone on Sunday. Although the assassination attempt failed, the Russian authorities are keeping the attempt a secret.
Photo: Ilya Pitalev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo / Tanjug/AP
Vladimir Putin
Flash recommends
“Those who work with him can hardly follow him”: Peskov says that one can only envy Putin’s health
EMERGENCY MEASURES OF THE KREMLIN Putin signed a decree on the temporary management of the property of enemy countries
The UJ-22 drone took off in Ukraine on Sunday afternoon – it is the most modern Ukrainian drone with a medium range of up to 800 kilometers. Their goal was allegedly a newly built industrial park near Moscow, which is located 500 kilometers from Ukraine.
Ukrainian activist Yuriy Romanenko, who is said to have close ties to Kiev’s intelligence services, said in a letter claiming responsibility: “Last week our intelligence officers received information about Putin’s trip to the Rudnevo industrial park.” Accordingly, our kamikaze drone took off, which flew through all the air defenses of the Russian Federation and crashed not far from the industrial park.”
Indeed, several Russian media reported the crash of a UJ-22 drone near the village of Voroskogo, east of Moscow. The place of the accident is about 20 kilometers east of the Rudnevo industrial park.
The footage shows that there were 30 C4 explosive blocks with a total weight of 17 kilograms on the drone. M112 explosive charges are used by, among others, the US Army and the Canadian Armed Forces.
︎Putin’s personal Kremlin correspondent Pavel Zarubin said Sunday morning that the president plans “to visit an industrial park in Moscow.” When that visit was supposed to be, he did not say.
︎Russian passers-by posted photos from the Rudnevo industrial park on Sunday afternoon, showing the gray lawn in front of the main building that had been splashed with green paint, writes Bild.
However, it is unclear whether the Russian head of state wanted to visit the industrial park on Sunday or only on Monday – for security reasons, Putin’s visits are sometimes carried out a day before they are announced. Also, it is very possible that the mention of his double is just another form of security protection.
︎Ukraine was therefore unable to determine the date of the visit: whether it would take place “at the beginning of the week”, on Sunday or Monday.
Apparently Putin wasn’t there until today. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday: “Russian President Vladimir Putin is working in the Kremlin. The head of state is not planning any major public events.”
(Nova, Bild)

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 27 2023 10:05 utc | 223

Peter AU1 219
” Government officials and military leadership have not been targeted. ”
Agreement.
1. What is the denazification of Ukraine?
2.What is the goal of the Russians?

Posted by: Zbigniew1108 | Apr 27 2023 10:23 utc | 225

the problem of remnant Ukraine. Can any guess what their solution to this particular problem will be? I’ve been pondering it for the best part of a year now and still can’t.
Posted by: English Outsider | Apr 26 2023 14:44 utc | 2
Military outcomes can be clear and obvious… sometimes.
Political outcomes are messy, indeterminate, prolonged and ever changing in scope and challenge. So I think the answer to your question is no, no-one can guess what the solution will be, because there is no solution; just ongoing responses to unpredictable events as they arise.
There can be a strategy guiding those responses though, aimed at a longer term stability. Maybe the more useful question to ask is: What will Russia’s strategy to manage the transition to a stable post conflict future look like?

Posted by: GT Stroller | Apr 27 2023 10:51 utc | 227

Posted by: Drinky Crow | Apr 27 2023 6:39 utc | 200
“C’mon Richard, it’s been a couple generations since a nice assassination happened. Is just what the young-uns need!”
Well, I’d agree, but in this country it’s illegal to advocate the assassination of a political leader. Don’t need any more Federal time.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 27 2023 11:03 utc | 229

Peter AU1 219
” Government officials and military leadership have not been targeted. ”
Agreement.
1. What is the denazification of Ukraine?
2.What is the goal of the Russians?
Posted by: Zbigniew1108 | Apr 27 2023 10:23 utc | 226

Here are the grim mathematics. In order to “demilitarize” and “denazify” Ukraine, Russia needs to kill as many Ukrainians as it possibly can. But Russia cannot slaughter civilians and be seen as committing genocide, so Russia needs those Ukrainians to be conscripted into the army so that they can be killed in uniform. Ergo, Russia needs to leave a functioning, hostile Ukrainian government intact who keeps sending forces into the meatgrinder. Elensky has been the SMO’s gift that keeps on giving, so why take him out yet?
That leaves the question open of what Ukraine’s strategy is, and why do they keep circling the Russian flame even though it means certain doom for them. Well, Ukraine’s strategy is rational from Kiev’s point of view, because the regime’s real objective is not to “win the war” but to remain in power. Te minute they stop fighting, it is over for them. Russia has managed this conflict such that Ukraine’s only move is to keep sacrificing people to the Russian onslaught. Good chess.
The only thing that could change this dynamic is the direct entry of NATO into the battlespace, which is what the 300,000 Russian reservists are there for. Once you consider that, so far, Russia has fought this war with nothing more than its “picketers,” it becomes clear what the long-term strategy is. There isn’t going to be any rump Ukraine. Russia will keep its slow tidal bore rolling until it has washed over all of Eastern Europe and NATO finally cracks.
The lovable Mercouris is dead wrong on this subject. All season long and straight into March, he kept talking about the imminent Russian winter offensive, until winter ended and he reluctantly admitted that Russia never said they were going to have a winter offensive. This was entirely a figment of his imagination. Currently, the figment of his imagination is “the breaking of the defensive line in Bakhmut,” which Russia seems in no hurry to do, either.
So far, nobody seems willing to admit in public that Russia’s real strategy is to simply erase Ukraine altogether, and that that is merely the first step in a much larger global conflict that will bring about the demise of Western hegemony. If they admitted that, then they would have to admit that the killing must continue, and then they would no longer seem like high-minded advocate of peaceful global coexistence.
Eventually, everyone will have to pick a side.

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Apr 27 2023 11:23 utc | 231

@Intelligent Dasein
“Here are the grim mathematics. In order to “demilitarize” and “denazify” Ukraine, Russia needs to kill as many Ukrainians as it possibly can. But Russia cannot slaughter civilians and be seen as committing genocide, so Russia needs those Ukrainians to be conscripted into the army so that they can be killed in uniform.”
But what if a good part of those killed in uniform are ethnic Russian Ukrainians, who are forced to the front?

Posted by: Apollyon | Apr 27 2023 12:01 utc | 233

It just keeps coming… … I’m amazed but shouldn’t be. … … okay. If this 5 min report from CBC’s The National is any indication, then the funding for fighting in Ukraine is about to dry up. So — on to the next con.
https://youtu.be/v1eXsI3vl10

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Apr 27 2023 12:10 utc | 235

Why is there no war in Ukraine but a special military operation?
Posted by: Zbigniew1108 | Apr 27 2023 8:05 utc | 209
Just like Bill Clinton had no war in Yugoslavia but “an aerial bombing campaign.”

Posted by: Passerby | Apr 27 2023 12:21 utc | 237

John Marks:
I imagine it’s becoming ever more obvious to Russia that there is no moral or even material advantage to not spurning Europe. With each passing day Europe has less to offer.

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 27 2023 12:27 utc | 239

Apollyon | Apr 27 2023 12:01 utc | 234 “But what if a good part of those killed in uniform are ethnic Russian Ukrainians, who are forced to the front?”
The reasons for not wanting to go to the front can be many – a good reason is not wanting to be maimed or killed
Patrick Lancaster in a recent video interviewed people in the Kherson region. Their answers were a little surprising to me. Kherson had the percentage of yes votes in the referendum, around 86% I think. Although they were ethnic Russians, they considered themselves Ukrainians and there thoughts were divided. It seemed they mainly wished that things could go back to the way they were before 2014.
In the aftermath of Mariupol a couple of interviews of the refugees that were catching the bus to Russia, a common theme was that they considered themselves Ukrainian and where shocked that the Ukrainian forces were deliberately firing at them.
Those sort of answers were a bit surprising to me after what has gone on since 2014. I guess eight years of Nazi propaganda has worked its magic.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 27 2023 12:31 utc | 241

Posté par: Konrad | 27 avril 2023 11:06 UTC | 231
Out of stock or not. Yesterday, in the Kherson region, the Lancet drones destroyed 4 launchers of the S-300 air defense system and the German Gepard ZSU. The enemy column was followed and set in motion, after which the massacre began.
The video should be out today. The sight of the S-300 launcher burning on the road will please you.😀
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/84011
I think he’s talking about four tubes, but if it’s four launchers it’s better.
We’ll see if they’re loaded

Posted by: la bouteille | Apr 27 2023 12:33 utc | 243

Apollyon @ 12:01 utc
In the context of armed conflict, if someone is aiming to shoot you, you shoot him. Even if it’s your brother.

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 27 2023 12:37 utc | 245

Following on from the conversation between Xi and Zelensky, and acknowledging Russia / China cooperation and communication;
Ukraine and Russia have a common people and it follows that not everyone in Ukraine is a Neanderthal Nazi bigot; there are some intelligent people there too.
Therefore; Ukraine recognises that it has been used and destroyed by the USA by being manipulated into a proxy war, and that all debt incurred is odious debt for which they are not liable. Any contracts for sale were negotiated under duress and can be repudiated.
Ukraine can therefore join with BRICS, repudiate all debt, cooperate with China and Russia in rebuilding and obtain security guarantees from Russia to fend off the U,S. debt collectors.
Ukraine acts as a portal to Europe for goods and perhaps new gas pipelines.
Win win.

Posted by: CitizenSmith | Apr 27 2023 12:41 utc | 247

@malenkov
“In the context of armed conflict, if someone is aiming to shoot you, you shoot him. Even if it’s your brother.”
I’d rather kill the guys who make my brother shoot at me.

Posted by: Apollyon | Apr 27 2023 12:47 utc | 249

Apollyon @ 12:47 utc
True enough, in principle at least, and yet I’m happy that we don’t have to deal with the consequences of Russia’s detonating nuclear devices over DC and Brussels.

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 27 2023 12:56 utc | 251

@ rk | 205

That was NOT what Putin said at a later time. He said the withdrawal was a gesture of goodwill for negotiations. You may choose to believe the blogger clowns, but that’s your choice. Either way, that was the moment when the tiny leverage they had was lost by their own decision. Now they can only hope for a new Minsk and even clowns like Slavyangrad “demand” a deal now.

I really have no idea why you think Putin is under any sort of pressure to explain, explicitly, to the rest of the world, what strategy is being pursued by Russia’s military leadership.
Putin is entirely privileged to describe the withdrawal in whatever fashion pleases him: he is the leader of Russia. If he explains to the rest of the world that Russia chose to withdraw its threat against Kiev as a gesture of good will, then that’s his prerogative.
My question is who are you to question the Russians’ intentions?
You’re a nobody. Also, you’re a pro-Ukrainian NOBODY, who nobody on this site pays any sort of meaningful attention to because your prejudices and political sympathies are “shallow and tendentious”, to turn a popular phrase. You are, at best, a distraction from meaningful dialogue. At worst, a troll.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Apr 27 2023 13:04 utc | 253

Anyone know what the Ukrainian turnover rate has been at high level?
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Apr 27 2023 9:42 utc | 220
Confidential Swiss Banking sources report that the bank accounts of high-level net-worth Ukrainian admin & military officials are increasing at a rate of 20-30% a month and accelerating recently suggesting that these high level Ukrainian individuals are feathering their p1ssin pots prior to exodus to Canada and the US in the not too distant future.
Requests to Blackrock and Goldman Sachs for comment have not registered any replies at time of writing.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 27 2023 13:06 utc | 255

@ Peter AU1 | 255

The soldier replied “No, we kill them all”.

Just as any sane fighter would.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Apr 27 2023 13:21 utc | 257

Hello Barflies.
I can tell you that my beloved husband, the great Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan, only had a mild cold. He’s feeling better.
Incidentally, the Turkey election will be decided by our 1.5 million Turkish voters in Germany. They all sincerely love and adore the great Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Like me.
Do not worry.
your Emine

Posted by: Emine Erdogan | Apr 27 2023 13:37 utc | 259

I found it to be a very insightful piece and suggest all the regular barflies give it a read, especially Don Bacon, bevin, EO, bemildred, RSH, psychohistorian, karloft1, and anyone else I’ve forgotten, here. It’s provocative and the guy doesn’t even pretend to “Know!”–it’s offered up as pure theory, but it fits the course of events so well I would be surprised if it isn’t an extremely accurate explanation, in the end.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Apr 27 2023 6:16 utc | 196
Thank your for your comments.
I have read it, twice now. I think it is very good. One can and should quibble about the details, but yeah.
“Find the weakness in your enemies greatest strength, attack them there”, or something like that — Sun Tzu as quoted by somebody.
It is basic strategy to let your enemy do what he wants, as long as it’s dumb. That way he suspects nothing. 🙂
I probably would not have considered his scenario in the beginning, but with the advantage of more than a year of information war, it sounds about right, and explains a lot, most of all fits the Neocon thought process, such as it is.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 27 2023 14:13 utc | 261

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 27 2023 13:10 utc | 257
Will get the Hörbuch, thanks!

Posted by: Cherrycoke | Apr 27 2023 14:41 utc | 263

Thanks cherrycoke, too, for the recommendation, although I need another book to read slightly less than a hole in the head.

Posted by: bevin | Apr 27 2023 14:45 utc | 265

259 – What’s the devout Muslim Emine Erdogan doing talking to barflies?

Posted by: Waldorf | Apr 27 2023 15:11 utc | 267

@245 Russians know sacrifice to fight wars. They are under a “decolonization” effort by the west. And if nothing else the fact they you list territory in Ukrainian territory and not russian territory is all you need to know that Russia IS protecting itself. It would be much worse to list the destroyed cities in Russia.
Europe the US and ukriane could all.have chosen to coexist with the RF, but they have not. We all know about the conflict has never stopped since the soviet union(Chechnya, Georgia, Yugoslavia etc)
If they weren’t fighting in ukraine they’d be fighting in Moscow.
I’m not a russian fan boy, I’m trying to keep it objective here. The russian state, any state, facing destruction is capable of anything.
As an added bonus Russia’s enemies are the worst people. The lgbtqia+++ western imperialist agenda personally sickens me and if russia can fuck up those guys I say go Russia.
If they can’t, well I hope they fuck up enough shit to delay their plans.
Ultimately it doesn’t matter what oligarchs pillage those countries. It matters that the US loses and the global American empire decentralized. That’s freedom and liberty for the serfs who live in it.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 27 2023 15:16 utc | 269

Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Apr 27 2023 11:23 utc | 232
This might explain why the “Grand Offensive” of Ukraine is so slow to take place. By your logic, the only move Ukraine can make is to keep at least nominally fighting the war, in order to remain in power. (A move which satisfies the Russians, so they can meet their long goal of destroying Ukraine permanently.)
So perhaps the reason there’s no Grand Ukrainian Offensive is that a bold move that commits 50,000 solders but leads to a defeat might speed up the timetable for Ukraine’s eventual capitulation.
After all, if the bedroom is on fire but the house is slow-burning, then why not take your time packing?

Posted by: Ursula Zandt | Apr 27 2023 15:28 utc | 271

If you look at the history of war, then the longer they go on, the more attitudes harden, the more extreme war aims become and there is a greater propensity to escalate using more horrible weapons – which might include genocide and starvation etc.
In WW1 US led peace talks in late 1916/17 faltered because everyone still thought they could win and everyone had lost too much already. Unrestricted U boat warfare brought in the USA which was the deciding factor in 1918. In WW2 we had the real genocide starting in 1941, in 1942 unconditional surrender,and 43/44/45 a mass bombing campaign against Germany and Japan, the latter who [lost] the A bomb stakes.
It would go against historical precedent for peace talks to break out now. If Russia believes it is winning then it has no reason to compromise its objectives, which will have changed. Ukraine meanwhile cannot force a negotiation, and will attack if it has a chance of getting the upper hand to start negotiations. But why would Russia talk from a position of temporary weakness? It will simply up the ante, raise more forces, deploy more weapons and possibly really nasty ones, and continue. It is fantasy to think that any Ukrainian attack could be so successful as to fatally woundthe Russian military and the regime and force some sort of surrender. Russia will win, it is just a matter of when, how and at what cost.
The danger in this is NATO and the USA consider that they are over committed and the whole things ends up in a NATO vs Russia shooting war. Which inevitably means MAD. And that is why I think China wants to calm this down.
There is no off ramp here for either Russia or Ukraine – one has to emerge victorious and the other will now lose. The key variable is what NATO/USA does next. I do not consider that they can actually win a conventional war against Russia but have been proved wrong before. But once one or other side starts losing in that hypothetical confrontation, the nuclear gloves come off.
I’m off to have another drink. May need the space in my cellar…

Posted by: marcjf | Apr 27 2023 15:41 utc | 273

” Xi needs to know if the sane Ukrainians have any chance of taking control of Ukraine’s future, and whether Zelenski is one of them, or Zionist lunatic? And he’s not going to rely on what Zelenski tells him – hence the dispatching of Senior Chinese diplomats to ‘other’ countries as part of this, imo, fact-finding mission.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 27 2023 16:01 utc | 274 ”
Some of you are pathologically naive and snorting copium at this point.

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Apr 27 2023 16:05 utc | 275

” If you look at the history of war, then the longer they go on, the more attitudes harden, the more extreme war aims become and there is a greater propensity to escalate using more horrible weapons – which might include genocide and starvation etc.
Posted by: marcjf | Apr 27 2023 15:41 utc | 273 ”
History also shows that long wars greatly harm both sides, no matter the winner. Extended wars also place enormous economic drains on nations, yet some here believe that Russia will be the exception to thousands of years of human history. Good luck with that.

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Apr 27 2023 16:10 utc | 277

” This strategy of systematically exterminating all of the Ukrainian males will inevitably result in there being many Ukrainian females who will need to be inseminated by Russians.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Apr 27 2023 15:36 utc | 272 ”
There are really stupid statements and then there are statements like yours, which raise the bar to a whole new level.

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Apr 27 2023 16:12 utc | 279

Posted by: Apollyon | Apr 27 2023 12:47 utc | 250

I’d rather kill the guys who make my brother shoot at me.

That’s precisely the closing verse of this poem, it is in Russian but subtitled, enjoy:
https://t.me/putingers_cat/5171

Posted by: Paco | Apr 27 2023 16:20 utc | 281

” “Crimes against the peace and security of humanity”, there is Art. 353 “Planning, preparing, initiating or conducting a war of aggression.” Planning, preparing or unleashing a war of aggression is punishable by imprisonment from seven to fifteen years. Conducting a war of aggression is punishable by imprisonment for a term of ten to twenty years.
Posted by: Zbigniew1108 | Apr 27 2023 8:05 utc | 209 ”
So by changing the name everything is magically fixed ? Isnt that exactly what the West does ? Just Linguistic hocus pocus.

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Apr 27 2023 16:41 utc | 283

The strategy of exterminating the males of Ukraine has been adopted by Britain and Zelensky. That’s what ‘to the last Ukrainian’ literally means. I can’t see how Russia can conquer Odessa – which would give them huge leverage over Ukraine – because I don’t see how they do it logistically. At best, they might be able to blockade it.
This leaves the default as making Ukraine unable to fight, regardless of future equipment deliveries, because they have a miserable birth rate and demographics and too few males left who aren’t pensioners.

Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 27 2023 16:46 utc | 285

” I do not know why this issue had to be raised the way it was in this comments thread (it is unrelated to the topic) but it has to be addressed because of possible implied racist and anti-immigrant sentiment in the original comment back @ 28.
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Apr 27 2023 0:16 utc | 157 ”
Would you still call the anti-migrant commentary racist if millions of White Orthodox Christians were forcing themselves into, whatever part of the world you’re from, while forever changing the culture and demographics of your people’s land ? What if they insisted that their religion be overly honored and immune to any criticism ? What If they took over parts of your nation and declared them their own, virtual no-go zones. What if they considered your women sluts giving them the right to rape them ? so forth and so on.
Be honest, because we all know the answer already.

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Apr 27 2023 17:01 utc | 287

@285, oldhippie, First Republic Bank looks like a likely candidate for going under. They’ve lost 95% of their stock price.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Apr 27 2023 17:23 utc | 289

” You really need an editor:
“Military overreach and perpetual war eventually place fatal economic drains on empires, yet some trolls here believe that the US Empire will be the exception to thousands of years of human history. Good luck with that.”
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Apr 27 2023 18:06 utc | 291 ”
So creative, yet it avoids the points I made. I wonder why ?

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Apr 27 2023 18:09 utc | 291

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 27 2023 16:42 utc | 285
Posted by: Immaculate deception | Apr 27 2023 17:23 utc | 290
M2 Money Supply

Posted by: Digital Spartacus | Apr 27 2023 18:16 utc | 293

Russia could ‘conquer’ Odessa but the optics wouldn’t look good.
This is about bringing the 85% of the world populations ‘on-side’ by the Slave races building a multipolar world finally free of the long servitude. That doesn’t happen by demonstrating overwhelming , disproportionate, Force and Brutality. That is what Xi and Putin have been working on for over 25 years.
Which is what has really pissed off the natzos, who have launched the most heinous monstrosities upon the planet in their desperation.
It will be better when the population of Odessa votes to exit from the rump Ukraine along with a few other regions where the locals are Russian heritage , even if they were encouraged to be nouveaux Europeans. That was always a lie to build the anti Russia sentiment and be told they would be as sophisticated and rich and in the EU. They ended up as the poorest SSR even with the immense resources at hand … not at all by bad luck. They have been played by the Oldest Pirates in the oldest con game on the list planet.
The old Russian males and the youngest too are daily pressganged, beaten, ‘Shanghaied’ now – having already gathered the willing and Fed them into the mincer.
The main desire has ALWAYS been to take control of Crimea, it goes back centuries, because of its geographic position. It has been taken for granted that it always would be.
The profits have been booked in for a very very long time. That is why all the placement leader clones are constantly demanding that Russia disbands and hands over what they were supposed to centuries ago! It’s why the sociopath CEO’s of the biggest bankers are openly talking about expecting to ‘invest’ in.
None of them can even think that what they have been raised and trained all their lives is NOT going to happen. It’s the reason for such a blinkered disconnect from the ‘top leaders’ of the Collective Waste and the monopoly mass media with its propaganda multipliers, the narratives of entertainment media – the superhero movies, the endless police procedurals, the fake woke agendas and the pop stars and their songs. It has been quite an exercise in mind bending over generations!
PS, regarding the wooing of Erdo. The same carrot was dangled infront of Turks for decades. Including allowing millions to settle in Europe and massive investment and transfer of industry into Turkey as a means of recompense; being allowed to play in the Football leagues and enter Eurovision, the westernisation of the Young Turks etc. But being Muslim – they were never going to be allowed into the Garden, never were , never will. Their main function was to be the ‘wall’ of Fortress Europe (a phrase that has mysteriously disappeared from the political lexicon ). It finally ends when Turks decide to stop being the whip hand , House Slave of the Oldest Gardeners (some originated there over the centuries btw – who shapeshifted to the Garden – Bozo Johnson PM, King and Fuehrer of England being a prime example ) and tells natzions to depart from their land and take their militaries with them.
I’ll keep repeating that everything ONLY makes sense if viewed in the correct frame of reference. And that is in Centuries, not in a year, decade, week.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Apr 27 2023 18:21 utc | 295

Zelensky has been curiously silent on Artemovsk, no more bluster about it “holding” or even the “it’s difficult” spin.
It seems he’s left his men to die in the cauldron, how shitty of a leader does that?

Posted by: Chris | Apr 27 2023 19:10 utc | 297

@285
usa money supply peaked after the most incredible rise in money printing history.
down from imperialrecord peak, m2 is far above usa trend line and will cause pce index inflation forever
bc the printing presses will spew for Biden election.

Posted by: paddy | Apr 27 2023 19:19 utc | 299