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April 26, 2023

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-100

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b on April 26, 2023 at 14:39 UTC | Permalink

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So Xi Jingping finally talked to Zelensky. But why now?

Posted by: mikee | Apr 26 2023 14:43 utc | 1

(Taken from what is now a dead thread on "b"'s article "Biden Prepares To Give Up On Ukraine".)

Following on from what I believe to be a definitive article, the sell-out of the Ukrainians has been brewing for months. I believe they were never expected to defeat the Russians in any case.

The intention all along was to provoke the Russians to military action, didn't really matter what sort. That then justifying the imposition of sanctions. Those sanctions the means of destabilising Russia economically and thus politically. Some hoping the sanctions would lead to a breakup of the RF but if that was not achieved, at least weakening the Russians significantly.

I further believe that the Europeans were not, as is so often assumed by commentators, pulled along by Washington in this enterprise. They were themselves eager for the enterprise to be attempted.

On the military side, it was expected that the Russians would defeat the Ukrainians in short order. The arms and training we had given the Ukrainians were not in the least suitable for full combined arms warfare. They were suitable for the threatened Ukrainian attack on the Donbass that was to provoke military action. They were suitable for the partisan war that was expected to follow Ukrainian defeat. And of course, had the RF been destabilised as was intended by the sanctions war, the Russians would have been unable to persevere in combating Ukrainian partisan warfare in any case.

That overall view, I find, is held by few in the US and almost none in Europe. But it is the only explanation that fits with the events before and after the SMO.

It all went wrong. The sanctions did not topple the Putin administration. The Russians did not defeat the Ukrainians in short order. Nor did they attempt to, although they had hoped for some sort of settlement up until the failure of Istanbul.

Instead the Russians did something entirely unexpected. They deployed only a fraction of the forces at their command. They mounted no "Shock and Awe" full scale offensives. Instead, for the greater part of the SMO so far they allowed the Ukrainian forces to come to them and destroyed them when they did.

So from the point of view of both Washington and Berlin/Brussels the enterprise has failed and as said, for some time it has been a question of watching both prepare to abandon it if they can do so without disillusioning the US and European electorates.

That leaves two questions that have been apparent since the start of the SMO if one assumes, as I did at that start, that the Russians would not be defeated either militarily or in the sanctions war.

1. Would the Russians return to their late 2021 security demands and if they did, would the Europeans accede to those demands.

2. After the Russians had absorbed whatever they decided to absorb of the Kharkov/Odessa arc, what would be the future of remnant Ukraine.

The first question is already answered. The Europeans are unlikely to arrive at any meaningful rapprochement with the Russians so barring unlikely political change we in Europe are in for Cold War II.

But the second question? I do not agree that attention will now be turned to China and that the Ukrainian enterprise, as I call it, will be abandoned in its entirely. I believe we are likely to continue arming and supporting remnant Ukraine so that it remains a source of annoyance and expense to the Russians.

If the Russians occupy remnant Ukraine to prevent that, they will be faced with the partisan war that was hoped for by us earlier. If they don't then they will have on their borders “A zone of destabilisation and insecurity" indefinitely.

I am confirmed in the belief by some penetrating observations made by Sleboda recently:-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luHMVfRP39o&t=3850s

(Set to around 1 hr. The phrase "A zone of destabilisation and insecurity" is a direct quote from Sleboda.)

But the Russians have demonstrated, both in Syria and now in this SMO, a remarkable ability to look before they leap. They plan ahead for a number of possible contingencies. They will surely have planned already how to deal with the problem of remnant Ukraine. Can any guess what their solution to this particular problem will be? I've been pondering it for the best part of a year now and still can't.

Posted by: English Outsider | Apr 26 2023 14:44 utc | 2

Last Night


Former hardline Russian President Medveda describes what a nuclear blast would feel like and says Russia is prepared to do it.

HERE https://twitter.com/AbrahamStein8/status/1651237250682830848?s=20

Posted by: Dave Oneil | Apr 26 2023 14:50 utc | 3

" I. “Historical” questions:

1) In 2014, the power of the Ukrainian junta hung in the balance, and all of Novorossiya, looking at the Crimea, was waiting for Russia with hope. But the Kremlin initially refused to send peacekeeping forces to the Donbass, and then was the first in the world to recognize the legitimacy of Poroshenko’s election. As a result of the eight-year pause under the Minsk agreements, Ukrainians created a combat-ready army, suppressed the protest movement, brainwashed a significant part of the population, and by 2022 were able to resist the Russian Armed Forces on the battlefield. WHO is responsible for the strategically failed decisions, for which Russia is now paying with thousands of lives and tens of thousands of cripples? Who has suffered or should be punished for this cretinism and/or direct sabotage? "

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Apr 26 2023 14:57 utc | 4

Ukraine is going to be partitioned, and I believe cease to exist. Parts being absorbed by the neighboring countries, including Russia. The die hard Ukrainians, who are still alive, will move, most likely to Germany and Poland. The people staying behind will assimilate.
What is now Ukraine will most likely be more prosperous and better to live in, than what was before.
And the anti Russia Ukrainians will be far better controlled in Germany and Poland! Both countries are anti Russia in any case.
I think both the Russians and the Ukrainians now fully understand each other. You threaten us, and we will kill you.
That is as simple as it is.

Posted by: g wiltek | Apr 26 2023 14:58 utc | 5

" . Eventually, Primakov introduced Kissinger to Putin, and they became close. That both Primakov and Kissinger took time to coach Putin on geopolitics and geosecurity was a clear demonstration that they saw in him the characteristics of a powerful leader. It also showed Putin’s capacity for listening to lengthy lessons on geopolitics — as I was soon to learn."

https://unherd.com/2022/01/what-the-west-gets-wrong-about-putin/

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Apr 26 2023 15:01 utc | 6

Everyone knew Ukraine never had a hope in hell. Just another bunch of useful idiots obeying their masters in the US. This whole ordeal has opened the eyes of the ROW to the absolute mafia style of the west and their lackeys. Russia exposes their BS on a daily basis which is far more important than winning outright in the conflict. Russia can continue to wear down and eliminate the threat on their border until all objectives are met. There will be no ceasefire or peace agreement unless it is exactly what Russia wants. Ukraine and the west will never agree to the terms so the SMO will continue on as long as it takes.

Posted by: Watzov | Apr 26 2023 15:05 utc | 7

THE COUNTEROFFENSIVE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN SMALL STEPS - HUMENIUK

At this stage, it consists in destroying the resources and capabilities of the enemy.
Natalia Gumeniuk, a spokeswoman for OK South, said today that counteroffensive of the Defense Forces, which everyone is so passionately discussing, is already coming. This happens quietly and in "small steps", at this stage it consists in minimizing the capabilities and resources of the enemy.

"We are not inclined to underestimate the enemy, we know their power and potential, and we are working methodically to minimize these capacities and capabilities," Stated she.

We are talking about the destruction of ammunition warehouses, points of concentration of equipment and places of accumulation of personnel of the Russian army.

To recap, Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar said that the Ukrainian military has already carry out counteroffensive actions on several fronts. She added that such actions can be considered the defense of the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region. Meanwhile, the head of the Defence Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov said that Ukraine is now approaching a landmark battle in its modern history. He is confident that for the Defense Forces to reach the borders of 1991 already this year – achievable task.


https://zn.ua/ukr/war/kontrnastup-vzhe-jde-malenkimi-krokami-humenjuk-.html

Posted by: Paul Norway | Apr 26 2023 15:09 utc | 8

Ukrainians are saying, and looks like it, that Russia is on the defensive across the whole front except for trying to finish taking bahkmut where they are simply destroying every building left so it's a done deal now, but the Ukrainians insist on making them do it so it'll be done whenever.

New fronts are going to open up, russia is shelling pretty regularly from across their border and AD looks tighter, much tighter, getting lots of shoot down reports not any mysterious explosion reports in russia(except for one of russias errant glide bombs)

Defences in kherson are working. Zelensky proclaimed a big victory there and I guess that's the end of it for now. But russias positions seem unaffected.

Slaviansk and kramatorsk are getting shelled pretty hard it seems and kupiansk is a sore spot for ukraine.

So russia looks fully prepared to defend and is working over Ukrainian logistics.

Biden has yet to ask congress for more money. Zelensky is still holding out for more. Impass there. One presidential drawdown I think.

Orban is worried about Ukrainian peacekeeping missions.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 26 2023 15:11 utc | 9

"Biden Prepares To Give Up On Ukraine".
Hopefully Russia will liberate Odessa before NATO surrender on Kiev. Russia can't allow NATO-backed neonazis have access to the strategic Black Sea, lest there will be more trouble when they get a chance. It would be better for Russia and the rest of the world.

Posted by: maskazer | Apr 26 2023 15:19 utc | 10

@English Outsider | 2

Instead the Russians did something entirely unexpected. They deployed only a fraction of the forces at their command.

That was not really unexpected. That is the exact same strategy they employed in Syria: a small force, small enough to be economically sustainable, but strong enough to do the job. The U.S. (and allies) are trying to attract Russia in some quagmire, Georgia, Syria, Armenia and Azerbaijian, now Ukraine, for some time now. They failed, but they'll try again. That is why I am saying, since the beginning of this war, that Russia beating Ukraine means nothing: they need to beat NATO and then try to disrupt NATO, i.e. driving a wedge in the "alliance".

About the rest you are right.

Posted by: SG | Apr 26 2023 15:28 utc | 11

The arms and training we had given the Ukrainians were not in the least suitable for full combined arms warfare. They were suitable for the threatened Ukrainian attack on the Donbass that was to provoke military action.

Posted by: English Outsider | Apr 26 2023 14:44 utc | 2


Ukraine started with 240K troops who had NATO training. Some of it was combined arms training, but the part most important to NATO was insurgency training. Antitank missiles and Javelin AD missiles were the key weapons for this. By all appearances, the plan was for Russia to quickly conquer Ukraine at great cost followed by years of costly insurgency which would make the country essentially ungovernable.

But those troops have been mostly wiped out by now. Their insurgency weapons stock has also been largely depleted with the exception of small arms.

Russia seems content to gradually grind down Ukraine's military. Eventually there will be a large breakthrough leading to rapid advances westward. Russia's ultimate plan will begin to ultimately reveal itself at this point. Nazi civilians will flee further west into the EU to escape Russia's wrath. This will leave a much more Russian population with the problem population who was supposed to conduct an insurgency instead becoming a long term tax on their new EU homes.

Posted by: First Time Poster | Apr 26 2023 15:34 utc | 12

" 2) Why were outright swindlers put at the head of the People’s Republics of Donbass, who discredited the ideas of the Russian Spring by the very fact of their presence in power? How and in what way were the most famous heroes of 2014, commanders of the militia, physically eliminated? Who bore or will bear responsibility for the fact that instead of a “showcase of the Russian World” in the LDNR, for 8 years there was a swamp in which people lived much worse than in the Russian Federation and worse than in Ukraine? "

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Apr 26 2023 15:38 utc | 13

On a lighter note. . .

SAN ANTONIO, Philippines — The Philippines’ president was on hand Wednesday as one of the U.S. Army’s best-known weapons missed its target — a decommissioned warship floating miles away in the South China Sea — during a live-fire exercise.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. observed from a tower as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, fired six times at the Philippine navy corvette, invisible over the horizon, and a narrator over a public address system described the action down range. U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson sat beside Marcos.
The two HIMARS launchers — designed to strike targets on land — missed each time, but a barrage of ordnance from U.S. and Philippine artillery and aircraft eventually sank the vessel. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 26 2023 15:39 utc | 14

This fast war crap: Russia can produce more arms than people. They are fighting to preserve human capital, because some Russian finally figured out how to calculate human life value. They are outproducing NATO and destroying NATO military assets. How long did it take to train all those officers killed with a Kinzhal. Modern war moves slowly. Sorry it doesn't match a video-trained attention span.

Russia hedged its investments: it pressured Donbass while it tried a decapitation strike against Kiev. Everyone has rightly pointed out that Russia would have had trouble with an insurgency. Better to kill those guys in uniforms. Same with this NATO hardware.

Posted by: English Outsider | Apr 26 2023 14:44 utc | 2

Almost everything you mentioned was a result of bad intelligence or successful maskirovka operations. We might have all been surprised to see Russia stomp out NATO forces, but I think the Russian MOD had a better estimate of capabilities.

1 In business, when you compromise with an MF, you lose. Why would Russia compromise now? It should smash all NATO hardware so that NATO is financially depleted replacing it. Russia outproduces NATO for now. Even if NATO could outproduce Russia later, will they be able to do 2 years of total war spending to catch up? They haven't yet.
2 What remnant? So that NATO can arm it with nukes and an alliance this time? There will be no remnant. It won't even be a proxy state. Russia needs to prove it can unconditionally win against all of NATO. Do you think anyone is going to mess with Russia in the near future when all NATO hardware is a smoking wreck? Russia needs to take all of Ukraine. Partisans are nothing compared to bioweapon labs and nuclear weapons.

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Apr 26 2023 14:57 utc | 4

Amateurs talk tactics, officers talk strategy, generals talk logistics.

Russia needed 8 years to reactivate its military industrial complex.

You believe in magic missiles and magic ammo?

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 26 2023 15:11 utc | 9

Kherson has been an armored vehicle shooting gallery for the last month. The offensive equipment they were accumulating there was destroyed before it could concentrate for an attack. Russia's November conscripts are just finishing up training.

Video gamers fantasizing that there is such a thing as perfect attack are so annoying. Counterattack is always the best. Destroy the spearhead with defensive measures, wreck the attacking formations, smash them up in a counterattack. Seems obvious. The primitive Ukrainian army managed to hold Bakhmut despite being outgunned 10:1.

It seems odd those who cheer on Russia but have no concern for Russian lives. WW2 cosplayers.

Posted by: Aaron Lee | Apr 26 2023 15:46 utc | 15

@maskazer 10
Quote "Hopefully Russia will liberate Odessa before NATO surrender on Kiev. Russia can't allow NATO-backed neonazis have access to the strategic Black Sea, lest there will be more trouble when they get a chance."

You are so right. Evil English race has its vulture eye on Odessa for a long time to put own naval armada. England must be annihilated for plotting this and Syrian wars and having millions killed in all wars for last 100 years.

Posted by: San | Apr 26 2023 15:51 utc | 16

As it was buried deep in the Biden thread, here again:

+
Weeb Nation, who does daily updates on what happens on the frontier, has done his own calculations of the casualties suffered so far in today's update.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRXOoil-nO4

Short version:

Russia (all included) - 150,000 casualties, of which 35,000 are incapacitated or killed (death / wounded ratio 5-1)

Ukraine - 400,000 casualties, of which 100,000 are incapacitated or killed (death / wounded ration 2 or 3-1 due to conditions in the field and in Ukraine as such)
+

For clarification: I assume that this chap scans tons of info on the various telegram and other channels, so he can keep his maps up to date. He will come across the data given by various sources.

He notes the one survey carried out by BBC Russia, which so far has "only" found some 14k confirmed deaths in Russian obituaries, memorandums et al. Even if you triple that number, the figures are rather low. People simply have to keep in mind that losses in personnel since the retreat from Kiev have dropped considerably.

+
07:26 PM, 17 February 2023
BBC News Russian and Mediazona have identified 14,709 Russian service members killed in the Ukraine war.
+
-> https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/02/17/bbc-number-of-russias-casualties-in-ukraine-war-in-past-14-days-five-times-higher-than-average-en-news

The alleged "Mossad" report from a Turkish newspaper earlier this year (25 January) had it as follows:

UKRAINE:
157,000 Dead
234,000 injured
17,230 Captive
234 Dead – NATO military trainers (US and UK)
2,458 Dead – NATO soldiers (Germany, Poland, Lithuania, ...)
5,360 Dead – Mercenaries

RUSSIA:
18,480 dead
44,500 Injured
323 Captive

https://hurseda.net/gundem/246987-iddia-mossad-a-gore-ukrayna-ve-rusya-kayiplari.html

The numbers above are consistent with what we get told by various other Western source, or, e.g. Doug McGregor.

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Apr 26 2023 15:59 utc | 17

San 16

That's a bit harsh mate - I'm not English but my wife is. How can all the members of a race be evil? Does that include children?

Posted by: Rob Campbell | Apr 26 2023 16:06 utc | 18

As blindingly dense as the fog of war competently tries to be and remembering my saying one could, it seems, deliver the Italian Alps into Ukraine quietly, it's quite possible this war in Ukraine could reveal weapons not acknowledged by the US or even known to the Russians. War, the ultimate anything goes disaster, may well disrupt the current battle prognoses with something even more reprehensible than the current slaughter, especially concerning weapons deployments.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Apr 26 2023 16:06 utc | 19

LOL

As I said, russian military, politicians are retarded!

So EU kick out multiple dozen of russian embassy folks past weeks, Russia respond by kicking out only 1/10 of western embassy folks in Russia!

Or take this, for over a year western nations have expropriated russian assets TODAY Russia respond with a similar move. 1 year, one friggin year! The retardedness is hilarious!

Or take this:

Moscow issues warning over use of depleted uranium ammunition
The suppliers of the munitions to Ukraine and the users will be held responsible for the results, the Kremlin spokesman said
https://swentr.site/russia/575382-warning-depleted-uranium-ammunition/
LOL Russia still not understand that west do not give a shit about their "warnings" start providing anti-american forces in Iraq with depleted uranium and shut up!

Of course the retarded russians did not manage to track and bomb the depleted uranium shipments which are because of that used in the battlefield right now

UK confirms depleted uranium munitions already in Ukraine
The Ministry of Defence insists it has no obligation to help clean up areas contaminated by the weaponry

https://swentr.site/news/575339-uk-depleted-uranium-ukraine/

Posted by: Zamom | Apr 26 2023 16:08 utc | 20

Can any guess what their solution to this particular problem will be? I've been pondering it for the best part of a year now and still can't.

Posted by: English Outsider | Apr 26 2023 14:44 utc | 2

De-dollarization and subsequent bankruptcy of Pentagon et.al.

Posted by: Exile | Apr 26 2023 16:09 utc | 21

@Zamom | Apr 26 2023 16:08 utc | 20

Mother of Zanon?

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 26 2023 16:10 utc | 22

Norweigan

I have to use different nicks since someone *wink wink* keep banning my criticism of the russian invasion. Go figure who.

Posted by: Zamom. | Apr 26 2023 16:13 utc | 23

But the Russians have demonstrated, both in Syria and now in this SMO, a remarkable ability to look before they leap. They plan ahead for a number of possible contingencies. They will surely have planned already how to deal with the problem of remnant Ukraine. Can any guess what their solution to this particular problem will be? I've been pondering it for the best part of a year now and still can't.

Posted by: English Outsider | Apr 26 2023 14:44 utc | 2

I'd suggest that a major part of Russia's strategy has been to make western Ukrainians emigrate to the EU, caused by the slow degradation of the Ukrainian electricity grid. More than 10 million have emigrated, and few will want to return after the war.

I'd guess that the nationalists in remnamt Ukraine will emigrate to the EU because the economy will never be allowed to rebuild, electricity will be limited and gas will be non-existent. The same happened after WW-II when most Banderites emigrated to Canada and the partisans were killed by the Soviets. The older people who aren't fervent nationalists will emigrate to Russia for the pensions.

Sealing the border with Poland but letting anyone leave will do the job nicely.

The same thing happened to ethnic Germans after WW-II when economic ruin caused them to leave Königsberg (Kaliningrad now), Czechoslovakia, the Baltics, Poland, etc. The Germans never went back, except as tourists.

Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Apr 26 2023 16:15 utc | 24

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 26 2023 16:10 utc | 22

He likes to pretend that B actually pays attention to him.

It's kind of funny. It says right in the "Post a comment" section that using multiple names is sock-puppeteering and will get you banned. So, obviously, B has better things to do.

Posted by: Chris | Apr 26 2023 16:18 utc | 25

San | Apr 26 2023 15:51 utc | 16

The "evil English race" has a Brahmin Prime Minister, the leader of the Oppositions children are being raised as Jews.

And we have no armadas any more. We could not fight Falklands 2, let alone put a fleet in Odessa.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Apr 26 2023 16:22 utc | 26

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 26 2023 16:10 utc | 22

More like clone or incarnation No. 56 or the like. Truly sad.

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Apr 26 2023 16:24 utc | 27

Oh, and the #1 boys name in England and Wales in 2021 was one of the 4 variants of "Mohammed".

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Apr 26 2023 16:24 utc | 28

Ukraine has lost probably over half of the military base in the center of Bakhmut and getting smoked out of the high rise building area. The cauldron has really shrunk / is shrinking fast now.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 26 2023 16:26 utc | 29

Can Russia not sit in the Donbas or up to the Dneiper river and keep the power off in West Ukraine and the economy dead causing a financial, military and political black hole for the west until a friendly gov't overthroes the fascists? West Ukraine is critical to secure the Balkans and Russians few European allies of Hungary and Serbia.

Posted by: Jo | Apr 26 2023 16:33 utc | 30

BREAKING NEWS | SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH | Bakhmut Front Update 26/04/23

Few minutes ago ... a major move ...

Garage area taken - further move East ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8sk_qSUx54

Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 26 2023 16:35 utc | 31

Posted by: Rob Campbell | Apr 26 2023 16:06 utc | 18

I'm not English but my wife is. How can all the members of a race be evil?


It's funny but the Irish have been asking that question for quite a while now.

The sooner the anglo heart beats its last the better.

Posted by: Due West | Apr 26 2023 16:36 utc | 32

Chinese readout of Xi-Zelensky phone conversation

Zichen Wang 26 Apr 2023

China and Ukraine have just said that Xi Jinping and Volodymyr Zelenskyy talked over the phone. Below is our English translation of the Chinese official readout reported by China Central Television.

In the afternoon of April 26, President Xi Jinping spoke by phone with President Zelensky of Ukraine by appointment. The two sides exchanged views on China-Ukraine relations and the crisis in Ukraine.

Xi noted that China-Ukraine relations have gone through 31 years of development and reached the level of strategic partnership, which has provided a boost to the development and revitalization of each country. I appreciated President Zelensky's repeated expressions of the importance he attaches to the development of China-Ukraine relations and cooperation with China, and thanked the Ukrainian side for its strong assistance in evacuating Chinese citizens last year. Mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity is the political basis of China-Ukraine relations. Both sides should look to the future, adhere to the long-term perspective and planning of relations between the two countries, continue the tradition of mutual respect and sincere treatment between the two sides, and push forward the strategic partnership between China and Ukraine. China's will to develop China-Ukraine relations is consistent and clear. No matter how the international landscape changes, China is willing to work with the Ukrainian side to move forward the mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries.

Xi noted that the complex evolution of the Ukrainian crisis has had a significant impact on the international situation. On the Ukrainian crisis, China has always been on the side of peace, and its core position is to urge peace and promote talks. I have successively put forward the 四个应该 "four shoulds," 四个共同 "four commons," and 三点思考 "three points of reflection." On this basis, China also issued a document entitled "China's Position on Political Settlement of the Crisis in Ukraine." China is not the author of the crisis in Ukraine, nor is it a party to it. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a responsible big country, we will neither watch the fire from across the river nor pour oil on the fire, nor will we take advantage of the opportunity to make profits. What China is doing is open and aboveboard. Dialogue and negotiation are the only viable way out. There is no winner in a nuclear war. All parties concerned should remain calm and restrained in dealing with the nuclear issue, and truly look at the future and destiny of themselves and all mankind, and work together to manage and control the crisis. Now that rational thinking and voices are increasing, all parties should seize the opportunity to accumulate favorable conditions for a political solution to the crisis. We hope that all parties will reflect deeply on the crisis in Ukraine and, through dialogue, seek a common way for the long-term stability of Europe. China will insist on urging peace and promoting talks, and make its own efforts to stop the war and ceasefire and restore peace as soon as possible. China will send its Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs to Ukraine and other countries for in-depth communication with all parties on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. China has already provided a number of shipments of humanitarian aid to Ukraine and is ready to continue to provide assistance within its capabilities.

Zelenskiy congratulated President Xi Jinping on his re-election, appreciated China's extraordinary achievements, and believed that under his leadership, China will successfully meet various challenges and continue to move forward. China upholds the purposes and principles of the UN Charter in international affairs and exerts great influence in the international arena. Ukraine adheres to the one-China policy and hopes to develop comprehensive cooperation with China to open a new chapter in Ukraine-China relations and work together to maintain world peace and stability. Zelensky presented his views on the current crisis in Ukraine, thanked China for the humanitarian assistance provided to Ukraine, and welcomed the important role of China in restoring peace and resolving the crisis through diplomatic means.

...

https://www.eastisread.com/p/chinese-readout-of-xi-zelensky-phone

Posted by: too scents | Apr 26 2023 16:36 utc | 33

Posted by: English Outsider | Apr 26 2023 14:44 utc | 2

Comments like this is why MOA is one of best sites on the net. 100% that NATO wanted an insurgency war, wanted to bleed Russia white.

What NATO failed to take into account, and what Russians understand perfectly is the “nazi mentality” that dominates Ukraine/Banderastan. That disgusting mentality demands the purge of everything and everyone Russian from the confines of Ukraine and beyond. It’s the same old “push the Asiatic hordes beyond the Urals” mentality inherited from Hitler. So Russia knew they just had to initiate something and the insane nazis would start pouring at them, so they set up a shooting gallery to destroy everything coming their way. They can probably keep this up forever until either NATO escalates in a major way or Ukraine collapses from within (what they are probably counting on).

Posted by: Archie P | Apr 26 2023 16:37 utc | 34

@ English Outsider, §2:
Agree with almost all you say, EO.
But I don´t think partisan warfare was ever likely (except in NeoCons´ dreams). The Ukraine is (or was) a modern, urbanized European country. Despite the best efforts of BBC´s "Media Action" over the past nine years, I don´t think most Ukrainians have morphed into fanatical Russian-hating Nazis. Just the military leaders, with Zelelnsky as a front, have.
Russia will take everything from Kharkov to Odessa and allow a rump "Ukraine" (to be renamed Chornarus, "Black Russia") comprising the six or eight oblasts surrounding Kiev, with a similar status to Belarus (White Russia).
The most likely future of this ´Chornarus´ would be that the locals turn against Zelensky and the Nazis with a vengeance and do the Russians´ job for them, especially if the new state survives with Russian economic support.
What happens to Galicia and Bessarabia is more obscure. Either the Russians occupy them, which they don´t want to (because the locals are anti-Russian) or Poland could pick up Galicia and Rumania Bessarabia if they played their cards right and abandoned the EU/NATO lunacy. This seems very unlikely in the case of Poland. Doubtless the Russians will have considered these options, with Rumania more likely to jump ship and reorient itself and its trade to the Black Sea.

Posted by: John Marks | Apr 26 2023 16:42 utc | 35

Global Times reports on the Xi-Zelensky phone call, "Xi says dialogue only viable way out for Ukraine crisis", with the following being its most important content:

Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Wednesday that dialogue and negotiations are the only viable way out for the Ukraine crisis, and no one wins a nuclear war.

He made the remarks while talking to his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, over phone. The two sides exchanged views on China-Ukraine relations and the Ukraine crisis.

China will send a special representative of the Chinese government on Eurasian affairs to visit Ukraine and other countries to conduct in-depth communication with all parties on the political settlement of the crisis, he said.

Xi pointed out that bilateral relations have gone through 31 years of development and reached the level of strategic partnership, which has boosted the respective development and revitalization of the two countries.

Xi said he appreciated President Zelensky's repeated expression of emphasis on the development of China-Ukraine ties and cooperation with China, and thanked Ukraine for providing considerable assistance for the evacuation of Chinese citizens last year.

Mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, said Xi, is the political foundation of the bilateral ties.

He called on both sides to focus on the future, keep on viewing and making plans for bilateral relations from a long-term perspective, and extend the tradition of mutual respect and treating each other with sincerity, so as to propel the development of the China-Ukraine strategic partnership.

China's willingness to develop its relations with Ukraine is consistent and clear, Xi said, adding that no matter how the international situation changes, China is willing to work with the country to push forward mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries.

Xi pointed out that the Ukraine crisis is evolving in complex ways with major impacts on the international landscape.

On the Ukraine crisis, China always stands on the side of peace, and its core stance is to facilitate talks for peace, he said.

Xi noted his proposals of four points about what must be done, four things the international community must do together and three observations, saying that on this basis, China released its Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis.

China did not create the Ukraine crisis, nor is it a party to the crisis, Xi said, adding that as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a responsible major country, China would not sit idly by, nor would it add oil to the fire, still less exploit the situation for self gains.

Everything China does is aboveboard, said the Chinese president.

Interesting this wasn't done yesterday so it could become a topic at Lavrov's presser. Yes, Russia's MFA was questioned about the call, which will provide the content for my next comment.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 26 2023 16:46 utc | 36

Given future economic conditions in Europe, it seems likely the Ukrainian refugees will form cartels, along with the prior refugee populations from the Middle East and Africa. Those RPGs and machine guns will come in handy.

Posted by: John Merryman | Apr 26 2023 16:46 utc | 37

Posted by: too scents | Apr 26 2023 16:36 utc | 33

Basically Zelensky just repeated to Xi that they want 1991 borders. So nothing changes, Zelly and Ukraine remains under US/UK control till the bitter end.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 26 2023 16:50 utc | 38

@31:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/04/ukraine-open-thread-2023-100.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02b751a3065f200c#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02b751a3065f200c

Looks like we are in the "phase change" state where it all collapses for the AFU. Thanks for the link - Weeb Union seems very calm and not prone to theatrics. I did catch one questionable statement - he said there is still one supply road in, but most other sources are reporting that the 0506 highway remains cut off near Khromove. So we have a likely situation where the remaining AFU troops are completely screwed, thanks to Zelensky and his stupidity.

Posted by: Chris | Apr 26 2023 16:53 utc | 39

Maria Zakharova on the Xi-Zelensky call:

Question: The leaders of China and Ukraine had a telephone conversation, which, as you know, Kiev has been seeking for a long time. What do you think about this? Can this contact give a positive impetus to the settlement of the situation in Ukraine?

A: We note the readiness of the Chinese side to make efforts to establish a negotiation process. We see a broad consonance between our principled approaches and the provisions of the relevant position paper published by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on February 24.

At the same time, we believe that the problem is not a lack of good plans. So far, the Kiev regime has demonstrated its rejection of any sensible initiatives aimed at a political and diplomatic settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, and the eventual consent to negotiations is conditioned by ultimatums with obviously unrealistic demands.

The Ukrainian authorities and their Western curators have already demonstrated their ability to wind up peace initiatives. By their own admission, the Minsk agreements were needed only to delay time and accumulate offensive potential. In the spring of 2022, the almost ready-made peace agreements, which the parties reached at the suggestion of Kiev, were suddenly rejected by him. Vladimir Zelensky even legally banned any talks with President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin. Thus, any calls for peace can hardly be adequately received by puppets controlled from Washington.

V. Zelensky leads a country that has officially banned communist ideology and the communist party. At the same time, the process of so-called "decommunization" has been going on in Ukraine for many years. It is characteristic that recently the head of the Committee on International Affairs of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, A. Merezhko, declared Taiwan's belonging to China, recognized by the world community, to be a "communist delusion". Apparently, monstrous hypocrisy is a distinctive feature of the Ukrainian-style "democracy" imported from the West.

So, it seems Moscow's assessment is it's just more theatre, action without substance, although it does seem to be intended to put pressure on team Biden.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 26 2023 16:55 utc | 40

Xi, in other words, has threshed empty straw with Zel.
So sehe ich das.

Posted by: Oberbayer | Apr 26 2023 16:55 utc | 41

@Mikee 1

Why has Xi now held a telephone conversation with Zelensky?

It could be due to the supply of depleted uranium shells by the British Government, who are trying to absolve themselves of any responsibility for the consequences by saying, "Not our problem any more".

This is an extraordinarily irresponsible escalation and provocation, and if Kiev decides to use them, (and judging by ghe attitude and rhetoric of Zelensky and his cohort up to now, they will be only too willing), the retaliation when it comes, will be harsh.

Sunak and his cabinet may have bitten off more than they can chew, and the British people should be hoping that any retaliation is confined to their military, all of whom now have a bullseye on their backs thanks to their government.

It need not come to this, Sunak can withhold the armaments, or Zelensky might listen to Xi.

But I'll not be holding my breath waiting for either.

Posted by: Orchard 1 | Apr 26 2023 16:55 utc | 42

g wiltek @ 5 and Contrarian Ed @ 24 get it.

When RF does finally move west the Banderas are not going to bury arms, ammo, explosives, and prepare for a generation of insurgency. They are going to run. The Russian garrison in Galicia and Volhynia is going to be fierce. I would expect heavy use of informers and no mercy. In any event the Banderas have largely identified themselves on social media, those records will be scrutinized.

Ten years ago there was still Russophile population even in Lvov. Expecting all those were obliged to leave. What will remain will be the very old and an RF garrison.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 26 2023 16:56 utc | 43

Don Firineach @ 31

BREAKING NEWS | SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH | Bakhmut Front Update 26/04/23

RESPONSE: Looks like around 95% of Bakhmut is taken by the Wagner forces. At this rate, there will not be anything left of "Bakhmut" by 5/09. It will be renamed by the Russians to "Artemovsk" by then.

I don't think the Russians will have any operational pause after Bakhmut completely falls. Maybe a few days to regroup and reorganize for the new offensives will be in order, nothing more.

Posted by: young | Apr 26 2023 16:58 utc | 44

I see we have a genocide enthusiast with us. That's the only drawback to open comments :-(

Back on topic, I wonder how the conversation went between Xi and Xelinsky?

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Apr 26 2023 17:04 utc | 45

17 CM of Berlin said:

Short version:

Russia (all included) - 150,000 casualties, of which 35,000 are incapacitated or killed (death / wounded ratio 5-1)

Ukraine - 400,000 casualties, of which 100,000 are incapacitated or killed (death / wounded ration 2 or 3-1 due to conditions in the field and in Ukraine as such)

What is the tipping point? (The point at which Ukraine surrenders because they do not have enough soldiers to fight war) I believe when Ukraine's military has been reduced to in 200,000-400,000 soldiers left, they'll surrender.

If Weeb's estimates were true...How many of Ukraine wounded return to front? Let's suppose that 1/3 return to front to fight...100,000 return every 14 months)

How many soldiers does Ukraine current have? Add that to how many soldiers Ukraine can further mobilize + returning wounded. You have a hypothetical mathematical formula for Ukraine surrender.

Lets' suppose that Ukraine has 600,000 soldiers left. Ukraine can further mobilize 300,000. Let's suppose Ukraine will surrender when their total military force drops to 300,000.

600,000 + 300,000= 900,000 Add "returning wounded" 1/3 of 300 wounded is 100,000. We have a current Ukraine future force of 1,000,000. Starting now.

At current pace of loss, every 14 months- Ukraine will suffer 400,000 causalities with 100,000 KIA and 100,000 wounded returning to fight again. A net loss of "300,000 soldiers per 14 months".

At a rate of 300,000 permanent casualties/per 14 months, Ukraine will only have 300,000 soldiers left after 31.5 months. (300,000 is the mid point (I estimate) at which Ukraine must surrender). Therefore, War could continue for 2 years and 7.5 months. End of War Date? December 11, 2025.

The above is a rough hypothesis. I'm sure there are flaws in my logic. Am I under/over estimating the remaining men Ukraine can put in uniform? Am I under/over estimating the Ukraine surrender tipping point?

If your estimates are different... You could still plug your estimates in to this simple formula and estimate End OF WAR.

Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | Apr 26 2023 17:04 utc | 46

Due West @ 32

The sooner the anglo heart beats its last the better.

RESPONSE: SOON THE RUSSIANS WILL TAKE AND CLEAR ALL OF THE DONBAS. Then they will launch against the USA and key NATO targets. This will be the end of the USA. I base this upon Daniel 7:5.

After the USA goes down with fire within one hour, the time of Jacob's trouble will begin. That includes more than just the "anglo heart". The time of Jacob's trouble will last until the return of the Lord Jesus Christ about March of 2034.

A lot of anglo hearts are going to see their last beat when the USA is nuked. This may not be too far away.

I know what is coming and have a general good idea of when. I have exited the USA and any of her territories for now. There is no sense attempting to survive what the USA is about to go through. It's best just to leave her. She left the Lord a long time ago.

Posted by: young | Apr 26 2023 17:08 utc | 47

@ English Outsider #2
As usual, EO gives a excellent clear and in my opinion correct view of the USA/NATO intentions - that is to provoke Russian military action and cause destabilization of Russia by economic sanctions.
The part which I do not see entirely fitting into the picture is
1. the horrendous guilt the West has burdened their populations for mass killings of innocent soldiers on both sides, and
2. the destruction of Nordstream piplines, which will have economic consequences, "actively" - by loss of cheap energy and "passively" by having the insurance companies to pay for the sabotage and financial losses to the Western companies. Those losses will not be paid until the causing actors will be defined and the legal processes will take place for years or more likely, decades to come.
Those two points will be something which Russia and Ukraine will not, cannot forgive and forget.

Posted by: fanto | Apr 26 2023 17:10 utc | 48

Russia will take everything from Kharkov to Odessa and allow a rump "Ukraine" (to be renamed Chornarus, "Black Russia") comprising the six or eight oblasts surrounding Kiev, with a similar status to Belarus (White Russia).
The most likely future of this ´Chornarus´ would be that the locals turn against Zelensky and the Nazis with a vengeance and do the Russians´ job for them, especially if the new state survives with Russian economic support.

Doesn't work. Chernigov/Sumy is a huge strategic vulnerability and needs to be under firm control. Even if it has in fact been surprisingly Banderized over these last three decades.

What happens to Galicia and Bessarabia is more obscure. Either the Russians occupy them, which they don´t want to (because the locals are anti-Russian) or Poland could pick up Galicia and Rumania Bessarabia if they played their cards right and abandoned the EU/NATO lunacy. This seems very unlikely in the case of Poland. Doubtless the Russians will have considered these options, with Rumania more likely to jump ship and reorient itself and its trade to the Black Sea.

Posted by: John Marks | Apr 26 2023 16:42 utc | 35

Bessarabia isn't anti-Russian. Where did that idea come from? It's also not Romanian.

There is a reason why Vladimir Saldo proclaimed “We will retake Nikolaev, Odessa and Izmail” a few weeks ago.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 26 2023 17:12 utc | 49

Ramsey Glissadevil | Apr 26 2023 17:04 utc | 46

This is a tragedy for the Russian citizens of places like Kharkov, driven to the front to fight their kinfolk. Tragedy for everyone really.

Researching/browsing the "Russians are taking chips from washing machines" propaganda claim, I discovered that Raspberry Pi boards (cheap and powerful computers on a small board) have been almost unavailable since the war broke out (est delivery date for the most powerful is 2024). Is it covid damage to supply chain, or restricted production for other reasons? One of the factories is in the UK, so I can't see what the hold up is.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Apr 26 2023 17:14 utc | 50

Ten years ago there was still Russophile population even in Lvov. Expecting all those were obliged to leave. What will remain will be the very old and an RF garrison.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 26 2023 16:56 utc | 43

There still is, but it's mostly old people who grew up in the USSR.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Apr 26 2023 17:14 utc | 51

Back to the first comment, "why now?"

Speculation - Xi wanted to deliver a message. Negotiate, or else. What the "or else" could be:

+ China starts directly supporting Russia militarily
+ China to recognize the Donbass republics as part of Russia
+ Other?

Posted by: Chris | Apr 26 2023 17:14 utc | 52

@2 the only solution to remnant ukraine is that it can't pose a threat. There's two ways that works

1. It agrees in good faith to be peaceful and its allies insist on it for aid and incorporation.

2.it poses no threat despite its intentions.

Number 1 is win win diplomacy - the China solution?

Number 2 is nuclear warfare by Russia there to destroy strategic amounts of Nato military after they move in to enforce a Ukrainian victory.

Or of course Russia can lose and worry about protecting Moscow never-mind a strategic victory against nato.

Maybe, maybe everyone get exhausted and it lingers on in chaos until a new order emerges.

So 4 ways I guess. But I think you were assuming Russian victory in the donbass.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 26 2023 17:14 utc | 53

Another clue that the Xi-Xelensky call was abrupt, and not on Z's terms:

There was no advance notice, no blowhards in the Western press or Ukrainian Pravda trumpeting "Xi TO MEET ZEE TOMORROW!!"

Surely Zee would not have wanted to miss an attempt to win the press conference.

Posted by: Chris | Apr 26 2023 17:18 utc | 54

One more take on Bakhmut. It may be an unpopular opinion, but the reason why there wasn't a particular "de-blocking" operation, which has been expected for months, is actually that the 80k or 60k or whatever troops, that were supposedly earmarked for it, were mostly stripped and sent to Bakhmut and the immediate western outskirts. So there might not actually be a possibility for the "deblocking" operation.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 26 2023 17:23 utc | 55

@ English Outsider #2

The part which I do not see entirely fitting into the picture is
1. the horrendous guilt the West has burdened their populations for mass killings of innocent soldiers on both sides, and
2. the destruction of Nordstream piplines, which will have economic consequences...

Posted by: fanto | Apr 26 2023 17:10 utc | 48

The running guilt trip in the United States is over slavery and the treatment of women. Brutality in war stresses the killing of civilians when brought up, which is seldom. The other side thinks whatever it thinks and I doubt they will ever be able to impose a cost on the United States. Life isn't fair.

The people who should be pissed off about the Nordstream pipeline are the Germans, mostly. I am surprised they make so little of it, and about the only punishment they can impose on the US is is to drop out of the coalition. For whatever reason, so far, they are not doing it.

Posted by: Jmaas | Apr 26 2023 17:26 utc | 56

Ramsey Glissadevil | Apr 26 2023 17:04 utc | 46
Where will 300,000 come from? At some point there will not be enough people working in support and infrastructure for the army to operate. I think maybe Ukraine is already struggling to get enough labour for basic day to day clearance, repairs, fire etc. Ukraine already had the highest death rate in Europe before covid, then they lost 500 a day to covid, mostly older, now it is losing its young (plus millions lost to migration).

Also, the Ukraine ‘army’ as an entity is fairly new. Previously there was UAF and lots of private militias (funded by MPs and oligarchs). This has had to be amalgamated into some kind of unified force: a considerable challenge. It was also why it was easy for NATO to take over.

Posted by: olaf22 | Apr 26 2023 17:26 utc | 57

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 26 2023 17:23 utc | 55

I have had the same thought. The reason why there hasn't been a deblocking operation is that the AFU is screwed. All this talk about re-supply is BS.
The best they can muster is to sneak in some cannon fodder. There have been a few reports of attempted counterattacks along the flanks, and all have failed.

TL;DR: They missed their window for an orderly withdrawal months ago. They have only two choices: 1.) fight to the death, or 2.) surrender.

Thanks to Zelensky, it will be door numero uno.

Posted by: Chris | Apr 26 2023 17:27 utc | 58

The GUR buys products at prices almost half that of the Ministry of Defense, - Our Money, with reference to the purchase prices published on Prozorro

In particular, the GUR buy pollock for 69 UAH per kg, and the Ministry of Defense - for 120 UAH. And this, according to the publication, is the lowest price for all contracts, including the supply of products to the military stationed far from the front line in Kyiv.

For comparison: rice at the GUR costs 26 UAH per kilogram, at the Ministry of Defense - from 59 UAH. The situation is the same with the price of carrots: in the GUR they buy it for 12 UAH, in the Ministry of Defense - for 28 UAH.


https://t.me/rezident_ua/17471
Corruption in the Ministry of Regional Development continues and no one cares about it. Would like to, then with one call they would cover the shop.

Hundreds of millions are earned on such cheating, for which at this moment the army feels a lack of money for UAVs, transport and the latest equipment.

The military itself has to raise money for its own security. At the same moment, Bankovaya refused to return allowances to the military due to lack of money in the budget.

The Ministry of Defense and all purchases are personally controlled by the Head of the Office of the President Yermak. Most likely, all office workers share in these schemes, since months after the corruption scandal, “theft” continued.


https://t.me/legitimniy/15212

Posted by: Down South | Apr 26 2023 17:38 utc | 59

Posted by: Zamom | Apr 26 2023 16:08 utc | 20
Posted by: Zamom. | Apr 26 2023 16:13 utc | 23

OMG. Si tacuisses. "...bomb the depleted uranium..." Go fetch you a brain.

b, plz.

Posted by: MorePain4Cakes | Apr 26 2023 17:39 utc | 60

Posted by: olaf22 | Apr 26 2023 17:26 utc | 57
Where will 300,000 come from? At some point there will not be enough people working in support and infrastructure for the army to operate. I think maybe Ukraine is already struggling to get enough labour for basic day to day clearance, repairs, fire etc. Ukraine already had the highest death rate in Europe before covid, then they lost 500 a day to covid, mostly older, now it is losing its young (plus millions lost to migration).

Also, the Ukraine ‘army’ as an entity is fairly new. Previously there was UAF and lots of private militias (funded by MPs and oligarchs). This has had to be amalgamated into some kind of unified force: a considerable challenge. It was also why it was easy for NATO to take over.

I estimated that Ukraine would surrender when the military was reduced to 200,000-400,000. I took 300,000 as the midpoint. My estimates could easily be way off. Maybe Ukraine surrenders when they have 600,000 soldier?

I figure Russia will maintain an army of 400,000-550,000. If Russia drops below 400,000 then Russia will mobilize another 300,000. (like Russia did in November) If Ukraine drops to 300,000...then Russia will outnumber Ukraine with soldiers and superior weapons.

NATO is a wild card...of course.

Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | Apr 26 2023 17:45 utc | 61

But I'll not be holding my breath waiting for either.

Posted by: Orchard 1 | Apr 26 2023 16:55 utc | 42

My sentiment exactly. I'm waiting for the news that mushrooms are billowing, somewhere. We are on hair's trigger.

Posted by: MorePain4Cakes | Apr 26 2023 17:49 utc | 62

@ shadowbanned,§49:
Most of Bessarabia is Moldavia which is ethnically Rumanian.
Northern Bukovina (around Chernovtsy) was majority Rumanian with many Poles and Jews before WW2. It´s now a mix, majority Ukrainian, minority Rumanian. Bujak in the south is even more of a mix, with Turks and Bulgarians as well as Rumanians and Ukrainians.
Bessarabia is not a priority for Russia, especially if Rumania left EU/NATO to regain it.
The priority for Russia is the security and clarity of the Dniester (as a boundary) and Odessa.
Yes, I said "six or eight" oblasts. Chornarus (if it were ever created) would probably be the six: Kiev, Zhitomir, Xmelnitsky, Vinnitsa, Cherkassy, Yelizavetgrad - and maybe (but unlikely) Poltava.
More of a difficulty to predict is the future of Galicia-Volyn.

Posted by: John Marks | Apr 26 2023 17:52 utc | 63

Given future economic conditions in Europe, it seems likely the Ukrainian refugees will form cartels, along with the prior refugee populations from the Middle East and Africa. Those RPGs and machine guns will come in handy."

Posted by: John Merryman # 37

Rolling on the floor laughing my ass off. Gun control really works.

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Apr 26 2023 17:59 utc | 64

I see we have the reiteration of a well known Anti-Human troll in our midst yet again. Please let it starve.

There appears to be a three-way race to see which nation can be the worst: UK, USA, Poland. The UK edged ahead by a nose as Sputnik reports, "Moscow: West Intends to Turn Ukraine Into 'Radioactive Landfill' as Part of 'All-Out Escalation'":

"James Heappey's comments are a grim testament to the ruthlessness of the Anglo-Saxons' policy of an all-out escalation of the 'proxy conflict' they themselves unleashed in Ukraine. It has by now become self-evident that the West intends this country to become not only an anti-Russian military 'shooting range,' but also a radioactive landfill - with all the ensuing grave consequences for the health of local residents and the environment in the region," the statement by Russia's Embassy in London said....

He also admitted that the UK was not monitoring the locations from where these rounds were fired and added that his country was not obligated to help Ukraine clear up the depleted uranium rounds post-conflict. The UK official's remarks serve as indication that Britain intends to leave all responsibility for use of the shells that poison the soil, pollute nature, and cause cancer both among civilians and military personnel with their eager Kiev clients. [Emphasis Original]

I recall a world famous film from the 1960s where it's lead male character says "the British need to set a good example" for the use of the English language and other forms of behavior. Unfortunately, it appears British leadership now inhabits the bottom of the swine trough from which it feeds and where it clearly seems satisfied to dwell.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 26 2023 18:06 utc | 65

I have been trying to come up with a way that the US and NATO can pull out of this insanity of their in Ukraine without taking a mortal blow to their reputation and standing in the world community and without the total collapse of the faith of their brainwashed public. I cannot come up with one. They are in too deep. Literally their only hope is Russia allows a face saving way out.

This makes them desperate, dangerous and capable of doing anything. They are after all psychotic....

Posted by: JustAMaverick | Apr 26 2023 18:11 utc | 66

It's no coincidence that, as has been pointed out here recently, Galicia's leading literary figure was the author of Venus in Furs, the man immortalised in Krafft Ebing's coining of the word 'Masochist'.

Posted by: bevin | Apr 26 2023 18:12 utc | 67

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Apr 26 2023 17:59 utc | 64

West-Banderastan will really become a hot bed of terrorism, and with huge amounts of rocket launchers and AA missiles on the loose... when they get frustrated in the lack of promised EU free money, bad things will start to happen.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 26 2023 18:13 utc | 68

English Outsider@2

I am sure that you are, largely, right. The intention was to produce a shock to Russian society -diagnosed as brittle and vulnerable by the hundreds of thousands of Fifth Columnists infesting the capitals and Academies of the NATO countries- which would lead to regime change.

It was that which, I believe, prompted the idiots running Sweden and Finland, and even Switzerland and Austria to drop their neutralists poses. They were absolutely certain that the Bear was about to expire leaving all manner of plunder for club members.

I don't think that anyone except the clowns in the Ruthenian SS diaspora, who will never learn, planned for an insurgency rooted in popular russophobia- that was never going to happen. It don't in the forties and fifties and it sure as hell won't now.

Posted by: bevin | Apr 26 2023 18:21 utc | 69

@English Outsider #387 & #2 here

"... the problem of remnant Ukraine..."

Civil War in whatever remains in the 'remnant' ...


On one of your other plausible points:

Leaked documents: British spies constructing secret terror army in Ukraine

Documents obtained by The Grayzone reveal plans by a cell of British military-intelligence figures to organize and train a covert Ukrainian “partisan” army with explicit instructions to attack Russian targets in Crimea.

https://thegrayzone.com/2022/11/03/british-spies-terror-army-ukraine/
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 26 2023 15:16 utc | 400

Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 26 2023 18:24 utc | 70

@Contrarian_Ed

The same happened after WW-II when most Banderites emigrated to Canada

Explains a lot of the pro-Ukraine fervor here. Hell, the Deputy PM herself comes from Nazi/Banderite stock.

Posted by: Frank McGar | Apr 26 2023 18:24 utc | 71

I just posted the following comment on the non-Ukraine thread, but it certainly concerns Ukraine so I'm also posting it here.

I see we already have people misrepresenting RFKjr's positions. Here's RFKjr's position as stated at his campaign website:

"In Ukraine, the most important priority is to end the suffering of the Ukrainian people, victims of a brutal Russian invasion, and also victims of American geopolitical machinations going back at least to 2014. We must first get clear: Is our mission to help the brave Ukrainians defend their sovereignty? Or is it to use Ukraine as a pawn to weaken Russia? Robert F. Kennedy will choose the first. He will find a diplomatic solution that brings peace to Ukraine and brings our resources back where they belong. We will offer to withdraw our troops and nuclear-capable missiles from Russia's borders. Russia will withdraw its troops from Ukraine and guarantee its freedom and independence. UN peacekeepers will guarantee peace to the Russian-speaking eastern regions. We will put an end to this war. We will put an end to the suffering of the Ukranian people. That will be the start of a broader program of demilitarization of all countries."

Now, how hard was it for me to copy/paste what is his actual position as opposed to formulating something that misrepresents it?! Is his proposal perfect or in line with what Russia stated in December 2021? No on both counts. Is it better than anything team Biden has said? Yes. There more paragraphs follow the one cited above. Here's the fourth:

"America was once an inspiration to the world, a beacon of freedom and democracy. Our priority will be nothing less than to restore our moral leadership. We will lead by example. When a warlike imperial nation disarms of its own accord, it sets a template for peace everywhere. It is not too late for us to voluntarily let go of empire and serve peace instead, as a strong and healthy nation." [My Emphasis]

For decades, myself and millions-billions of others have asked for the rollback and end of the Outlaw US Empire so peace can prevail on our planet. And look at what's bolded above: A POTUS candidate who implies that's precisely what's needed to be done. Yes, his Ukraine proposal's imperfect; but RFKjr will negotiate, and IMO the Russians will deem him credible. That's a sea change in attitude since 1989.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 26 2023 18:27 utc | 72

@AaronLee in what fantasy world is the "primitive" Ukrainian army (that might be the appropriate adjective, but note that this is also at least the second best army in Nato) holding Bakhmut? Human shields and human wave tactics and an extreme disregard for the lives of Ukrainian soldiers have caused Russia to take a cautious approach, but this is not Stalingrad. Bakhmut is lost along with all the battalions wasted.

Posted by: JT | Apr 26 2023 18:34 utc | 73

bevin: In terms of prominence in Germanophone literature one would have to rate Joseph Roth far above Leopold von S&M. But the latter is much more famous in the Anglophone world because the former’s novels translate so poorly, and poor Roth didn’t have the privilege of getting a kink named after himself.

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 26 2023 18:39 utc | 74

@ English Outsider | Apr 26 2023 14:44 utc | 2

The SMO never seems to have been designed to be short.
( and I take Ukraine to be an object not a destination.)

Russia ( and China ) are busy demoting the dollar and
making the US demonstrate their true nature.
The more sanctions are kicked of and the more contrived those are
the better.

Otherwise the whole operation would be moot.

Posted by: MAKK | Apr 26 2023 18:52 utc | 75

Don [email protected] will use the Chechen formula, local Ukrainians will nullify any Brit Bandit Brigade. How many Ukrainians on the Russian side have a score to settle with the Banderites....expect much blood letting, denazifcation be like that.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 26 2023 18:56 utc | 76

Anyone who doesn't read the Bandera Blog is missing a lot: (the really bad stuff always begins in Canada)

"Ten days before 73% of voters in Ukraine cast their ballots for Volodymyr Zelensky in the spring of 2019, as Banderites and allied far-right nationalists initiated their “Protect Ukraine” campaign against Zelensky, which later became the “Capitulation Resistance Movement,” distinguished “experts” and politicians (including Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko, on his way to earn less than 25% of votes) got together for the annual Kyiv Security Forum.

"It seems safe to speculate that Zelensky, a comedian who campaigned on ending the war in eastern Ukraine, was not popular among the event goers. This high-level forum is organized by former prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s Open Ukraine Foundation, which has partnered with the Atlantic Council, an influential U.S. think tank funded by NATO, Washington, and others. “Yats is the guy” who led an IMF-subservient “kamikaze” government and the unpopular “People’s Front” party that welcomed prominent OUN-B members and other far-right nationalists.

"Mykhailo Basarab, a Senior Fellow of the Kyiv Security Forum who spoke at the 2019 event, later joined the Coordination Council of the “Capitulation Resistance Movement.” That summer, Basarab speculated on Poroshenko’s Channel 5 that Zelensky’s presidency was a “Russian special operation.” Danylo Lubkivsky, the director of the Kyiv Security Forum and a board member of the Open Ukraine Foundation, joined the advisory “Strategic Council” of the “Resistance Movement.”

"Zelensky dissolved parliament to hold early elections in July 2019. His “Servant of the People” party won an outright majority. Earlier that month, the new Ukrainian president visited Canada, where he was grilled by leaders of the Ukrainian Canadian community aligned with his nationalist opposition in Ukraine. According to Roman Medyk, president of the League of Ukrainian Canadians (a Banderite “facade structure” dating back to the 1940s), “I attended the meeting and had the opportunity to ask the first questions of the new president.”

"The Institute of National Remembrance is considered to be the leading state institution for the further development of Ukraine as a political nation. The director of the institute is Volodymyr Viatrovych. Do you support the work of the Institute and its leader?

"Readers of the Bandera Lobby Blog probably know by now that Viatrovych, “The Historian Whitewashing Ukraine’s Past,” is an important OUN-B member. The new Ukrainian government fired him a couple months later. Writing about Zelensky’s visit to Canada, Medyk claimed that “the entire Ukrainian diaspora support[s] the position of leading Ukrainian MPs, including Andriy Levus, on national security issues.” Levus, as deputy OUN-B chairman and former deputy chief of the Ukrainian Security Service, appears to have led the “Resistance Movement” from the start.

"It was at that summer’s Ukraine Reform Conference in Toronto that Donald Trump’s Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations pulled aside Volodymyr Zelensky and his chief of staff to warn them about “the Giuliani factor,” by which “he meant ‘a negative narrative about Ukraine’ that was ‘being amplified by Rudy Giuliani’ and was unfavorably impacting ‘Ukraine’s image in the United States and our ability to advance the bilateral relationship’,” according to the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence’s “Trump-Ukraine Impeachment Inquiry Report.”

“ 'Ukraine tried to take me down. I’m not fucking interested in helping them,' Donald Trump allegedly said to the U.S. delegation that attended Volodymyr Zelensky’s inauguration. That summer, the Trump administration tried to make Zelensky announce an investigation of the Biden family, first in exchange for a coveted invitation to Washington, before withholding hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. military assistance.

“I think he [Zelensky]’s going to make a deal with President Putin, and he will be invited to the White House,” Trump told the press in August. “He is a reasonable guy. He wants to see peace in Ukraine.” The following month, Trump offered to join peace talks moderated by France and Germany, and Zelensky agreed to discuss the “Steinmeier Formula,” a simplified version of the Minsk agreements, to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine....."

Ot continues, and just gers better at
Bandera Lobby Blog

Posted by: bevin | Apr 26 2023 19:03 utc | 77

malenkov@74
Thank you for your information. I know bugger all about Galician literature, as you were probably too polite to say, but I am, sadly addicted to cheap jokes.
I will look for Roth if he is within a country mile of Jaroslav Hasek I will love him.

Posted by: bevin | Apr 26 2023 19:06 utc | 78

The old 2S7 "pawns" turned "Malka" returned to college.
He learned geography and communication.
Received with mentions he works today in counter-battery.
Fast and accurate work, where 203 mm packages are delivered to the exact address.

A communication from the Russian MOD, propaganda as I like it.

https://t.me/mod_russia/25886

Posted by: la bouteille | Apr 26 2023 19:10 utc | 79

@ bevin, §§67, 69:
Leopold von Sacher-Masoch is much maligned and misinterpreted, thanks to Kraft-Ebbing´s use of his name for a psychiatric syndrome (masochism). He was a humanist, illustrating his novels with human characters and their problems.
Thankfully, Austria has not abandoned its neutrality which is supported by 75% of the population in surveys. However, the current EU-bootlicking ÖVP government in Austria is trying to do just that, e.g. by waving through Italian tanks to Poland for onward delivery, in violation of neutrality. This has justifiably caused widespread protest from the Austrian populace. But there´s hope: the FPÖ which opposes the Ukraine war, the EU and NATO, has made significant gains in the Länder (provincial) elections.

Posted by: John Marks | Apr 26 2023 19:16 utc | 80

If ever there was a left-liberal foe doing the bidding for the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) while pretending to speak for the "left," Dr. Lawrence Wittner, a Professor of History emeritus at SUNY/Albany, must be at the top of the list.

I am not saying that I know that he is a paid employee or contractor for NED, I have no knowledge or proof of such things. I only say that if you read this concise and professionally written article originally published by 'Foreign Policy in Focus' on April 24, 2023, and picked up by 'Counterpunch' today under the title: The Ukraine War Has Never Been America’s War; then like me, you might wonder as well.

Dr. Wittner has managed to touch on every lie while ignoring every truth and fact concerning the lead up to the US/NATO proxy war in Ukraine. The article is there to read, so I will not go into detail except to offer up a few paragraphs of his poison pen to give you the flavor of his diatribe, starting with the first paragraph

"Although supporters of the Russian invasion, occupation, and annexation of Ukraine blame “U.S. imperialism” for the Ukraine War, the U.S. role has been relatively minor [minor?]. The major actors have been Ukrainians, striving for independence, and Russians, striving to end it."

As things turned out, developments did not go well for them in Ukraine, where Yanukovych’s extensive corruption, authoritarian behavior, and reversal of his promise to sign a political association and free trade agreement with the European Union led to three months of massive anti-government demonstrations and deadly shootings of protesters by police. Finally, in February 2014, abandoning a last-minute agreement he had signed with the political opposition for a broader cabinet, Yanukovych fled to Russia...."

"Although the Russian government and its sympathizers claim that this popular upheaval was a “coup,” the reality is quite different. The “Revolution of Dignity,” as most Ukrainians called it, had widespread popular support. After Yanukovych abandoned his post, the Ukrainian parliament removed him from office by a vote of 328 to 0. Elections for a new president were quickly organized and held democratically...."

"Instead of taking a hard line toward Russian expansionism, the U.S. government went along with its NATO partners, Germany and France, which brokered compromise accords―the Minsk agreements of 2014-15 among Russia, Ukraine, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Designed to resolve the conflict in the Donbas, Minsk I and Minsk II required a ceasefire, withdrawal of foreign military forces, the disbanding of illegal armed groups, a return of the Ukrainian side of the international border with Russia to Ukraine’s control, and limited autonomy for the Luhansk and Donetsk regions―all to be supervised by the OSCE....."

"Even today, when the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians support continued resistance to the Russian invaders, leading U.S. politicians have called for abandoning Ukraine to its fate, while major figures in the U.S. foreign policy establishment argue for compromise with Russia because 'Ukraine’s goals are coming into conflict with other Western interests'....."

This is what passes as "left discourse" among the pro-imperialist flea flicker who chases the Neo-Liberal, Neo-Cons, among the Democratic Party hound dogs.

Posted by: Ed | Apr 26 2023 19:17 utc | 81

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 26 2023 18:06 utc | 65

The damage has already been done, focusing on DU munitions misses the devastating environmental impact of conventional explosive weapons.

https://people.geo.msu.edu/schaetzl/PDFs/Bombturbation.pdf

Posted by: Milites | Apr 26 2023 19:20 utc | 82

Judging Freedom & Macgregor up 23 minutes ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9uv2uN2E5s

activists at a NYT/WaPo panel speak out at the Columbia University disrupting the meaningless talk
2 mio. viewers within an hour I think

https://twitter.com/JosBtrigga/status/1650978643567423494
https://twitter.com/JosBtrigga/status/1651040961621884928

Posted by: AG | Apr 26 2023 19:30 utc | 83

78 - Roth was a polyglot Galician Jew whose work shows considerable nostalgia for Austria-Hungary. Mainly a reaction to postwar turmoil. (He was quite aware of the Danube Monarchy's many weaknesses.) Hasek was contemptuous of Austria-Hungary, though after capture by the Russians in 1915 he took over half a year to go over to the Czechoslovak Legion - many Czech and Slovak POWs said yes to its recruiters the minute they were approached.

Posted by: Waldorf | Apr 26 2023 19:32 utc | 84

@English Outsider,

Trick the Poles into taking over whatevers left along with Lviv in a manner that thuroughly pisses off the rest of HATO and walk away. The Poles can't think straight when Lviv is involved, so they're sure to fall for it.

Meanwhile the Dollar Reich will continue its collapse and eventually neighbours might start taking on a much more mature attitude.

Posted by: Loncal | Apr 26 2023 19:33 utc | 85

John Marks: You say Austria is neutral, which is formally true, but you then correctly demonstrate how it really isn’t. As for the FPÖ, its chances of attaining a parliamentary majority are nil, and you can guess where the other three major parties stand on the matter of NATO vs. Russia.

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 26 2023 19:35 utc | 86

What stood out for me of the Xi/Z conversation was that Z said that Ukraine supports the one China policy.

It just seems odd to me coming from the empire leadership of one proxy war country about the potential other empire proxy war over Taiwan with China.....an oddly squared circle of lies.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 26 2023 19:37 utc | 87

Don Firineach | 400
Documents obtained by The Grayzone reveal plans by a cell of British military-intelligence figures to organize and train a covert Ukrainian “partisan” army with explicit instructions to attack Russian targets in Crimea.

Is this MI6 playing Biggles again?

Posted by: Hereward | Apr 26 2023 19:38 utc | 88

John Marks@80
I am sure that you are right about Sacher Masoch, I've seen him described as a socialist. His short stories sound interesting.
I'm glad to hear that Austrian public opinion is sound.

Ed@81
I particularly relished ".. Finally, in February 2014, abandoning a last-minute agreement he had signed with the political opposition for a broader cabinet, Yanukovych fled to Russia...."

As a description of what heppened it misses the entire round of assassinations by sniper, which has been shown to have been the key moment of the coup, making sure that elections and the people of Ukraine did not rear their ugly heads.

Still Dr Wittner's punishment - the obloquy of publication in St Clair's organ-does seem severe, though thoroughly deserved.

Posted by: bevin | Apr 26 2023 19:39 utc | 89

Waldorf: Yup. Someone who likes Hašek may not necessarily like Roth, and precisely because of the worldview. That, and Roth’s prose style loses a lot in translation.

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 26 2023 19:40 utc | 90

"..Is this MI6 playing Biggles again?.." Hereward@88

Belfast is where MI lost its heart. They are searching Kiev for Freddie Scappaticcis.
They'd love to watch as that game was played out again-voyeurs at the slaughterhouse.

Posted by: bevin | Apr 26 2023 19:45 utc | 91

Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 26 2023 18:24 utc | 70

Looks like the Nato trained partisan army got tired of waiting for partisan opportunities and went to impale themselves into enemy lines. This was one of the, if not most major flaws what Nato thought would happen.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 26 2023 19:48 utc | 92

Posted by: mikee | Apr 26 2023 14:43 utc | 1:

So Xi Jingping finally talked to Zelensky. But why now?

Why NOT now? The central part of this phone conversation was that China will send a special representative to Ukraine and other concerned nations to mediate a peace plan. Ukraine's press release did not refute that, meaning they agreed to this process. So, NOW the peace process is rolling, even if the guns have not yet gone silent.

In China's position paper, the two really important points to note are:

1) Mutual security concerns must be mutually observed. Meaning: Ukraine must find ways to de-militarize, de-nazifize, De-NATOlize. Russia will seek means to provide guarantee to not aggress it's dear brotherly neighbor :-)

2) UN clause of territorial sovereignty be observed. Meaning: Russia will not grab any more Ukraine land, but Donbass and Crimea have voted to be RF and is therefore under Russian sovereignty, just like Baltic States voted NOT TO BE part of Russia back in 1992 and became NOT PART OF Russia regardless whether the status fits the International Laws of UN, as Chinese Ambassador Lu opined.

Those would be the starting points of meaningfulnegotiations. I think China is going to convince the Empire and EU and NATO that, since they provided the weaponries and ammunitions and money and bullshits that caused Ukraine to fire their guns and kill Russians in Donbass since 2014, and resulted in all these present damages, the Empire/EU/NATO cabal should be responsible for restituting the damages plus compensations. China will be glad to serve as the referee and monitor, at no charge. Oh, the restitution of damages must include the damages to the Eastern part of Old Ukraine/New RF, east of Dneiper River that is.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Apr 26 2023 19:49 utc | 93

@ Malenkov, §86:
True, but Austria remains out of NATO and likely to remain so.
At the last Landtagswahl (Salzburg, last Sunday) The FPÖ gained 7% to achieve 26% of votes. The ÖVP lost 7% and dropped to 30% of the votes. SPÖ were a poor third (18%), so the drift is in the right direction. But it´s an uphill struggle with the usual accusation of "right-wing extremist", "neo-Nazi", etc., from the controlled press - all Euro-plutocrat owned.

Posted by: John Marks | Apr 26 2023 19:50 utc | 94

karlof1 | Apr 26 2023 16:46 utc | 36

It will be interesting to see were China's approach leads. I assume Chinese and Ukraine foreign ministers/other officials would have been in contact organizing the phone call.

All of a sudden, Zelensky announced the counter offensive has to be delayed as weapons had not arrived (Nato says all promised weapons have been delivered), then the phone call. Coming so close together I assume the two are connected.
The leaked pentagon documents possibly tying in as well.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 26 2023 19:59 utc | 95

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 26 2023 16:55 utc | 40:

Thanks for your frequent Maria Zhakarova quotes. I loved it when she retorted Borrell that if EU/NATO warships should patrol the Taiwan Strait, would that also mean that Asian nations should send their war ships to patrol the Strait of Dover???

Checkmate artist supreme, she is.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Apr 26 2023 19:59 utc | 96

Russia will allow Poland, Hungary, and any other nation which lays claim to land currenly within the present Ukrainian State to be absorbed by anyone who wants the problems involved. Or Russia might do what it did to East Prussia make it a waste land for the next ten or twenty years then slowly develop it again.

Posted by: Stritchplatte | Apr 26 2023 20:03 utc | 97

bevin | Apr 26 2023 19:45 utc | 91

OT, but to be fair to MI(5? It's within UK) if you have an intelligence source in an enemy organisation the surest way to lose it is to act on everything that source can tell you. You save lives in the short term but lose them long term as the enemy smells a large rat.

Just so with Enigma in WW2 - you had to be careful

a) to use it on the most important things to you, not on everything
b) if possible to find a cover story which explains the series of unfortunate events

so you know u-boats x, y and z are leaving Cherbourg - you send out air patrol that as if by chance overflies them en route for home, so they report the air encounter before the destroyers arrive and Rader thinks it's just bad luck when subs are sunk

Plenty of Brits died in WW2 who could have lived - but it was vital to keep the source secure. War is a dirty game.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Apr 26 2023 20:15 utc | 98

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Apr 26 2023 19:49 utc | 93

Very interesting scenario.

If that pans out, and China ends up leading a peace process in Ukraine that excludes the US and UK, those of us civilians in the US and Old Blighty are going to have to start wearing those CoVID full face shields in public, to protect ourselves from flying brain matter from the exploding heads.

Posted by: Chris | Apr 26 2023 20:17 utc | 99

bevin | Apr 26 2023 19:45 utc | 91

That doesn't mean I have any time for MI6 setting up terror cells in Crimea. I wonder if the attack in Cyprus today was orchestrated at RAF Akrotiri?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAF_Akrotiri

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Apr 26 2023 20:20 utc | 100

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