The Last Hurrah
ZubuBrothers has a piece that reports about a talk given by the Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces General Rajmund Andrzejczak:
Andrzejczak said that the situation doesn’t look good for Kiev at all when considering the economic dynamics of this conflict, with him drawing particular attention to finance, infrastructure issues, social issues, technology, and food production, et al. From this vantage point, he predicts that Russia can continue conducting its special operation for 1-2 more years before it begins to feel any structural pressure to curtail its activities.
By contrast, Kiev is burning through tens of billions of dollars’ worth of aid, yet it still remains very far away from achieving its maximum objectives. Andrzejczak candidly said that Poland’s Western partners aren’t properly assessing the challenges that stand in the way of Ukraine’s victory, including those connected to the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” that the NATO chief declared in mid-February. Another serious problems concerns refugees’ unwillingness to return to their homeland anytime soon.
...
As Andrzejczak himself admitted, “We just don’t have ammunition. The industry is not ready not only to send equipment to Ukraine, but also to replenish our stocks, which are melting.” Considering that Poland is Ukraine’s third most important patron behind the Anglo-American Axis, this strongly suggests that all other NATO members are struggling just as much as it is to keep up the pace, scale, and scope of support, if not more since many are a lot smaller and thus less capable of contributing in this respect.Accordingly, this observation means that Kiev’s upcoming counteroffensive will likely be its “last hurrah” prior to resuming peace talks with Russia since the West won’t be able to keep up its assistance for much longer. Andrzejczak seems keenly aware of this “politically inconvenient” fact, hence why he wants his side to give its proxies as much as possible until the end of that operation in the hopes that they can then be in a comparatively more advantageous position by the time these talks recommence.
I agree with the General's analysis.
bigger
Bakhmut/Aryomovsk is to 90% under Russian control and the rest will be captured during the next few days. Ukrainian losses in the city must have been huge. The Ukrainian troops who try to escape from the city immediately come under artillery fire. The latest daily Russian clobber report counts 575 'enemy losses' in Bakhmut over the last 24 hours for a total of 815 along the whole frontline. This is the largest number reported over the last two months.
Holding onto the city at all cost was in my view the wrong decision. A more mobile defense would have cost more land but also would have had much fewer losses than occurred in those static positions under strong artillery fire. As Ukraine is geographically big but has relative few mobilizable soldiers it would have been better to trade land its for time and not its soldiers.
The defense of the lowland city cost the Ukrainian army dearly as it eroded its material and human reserves. Those will be missing to patch the holes in the front line when that long announced 'last hurrah' counteroffensive fails to make any serious gains.
Posted by b on April 29, 2023 at 16:37 UTC | Permalink
next page »I hope you are correct about the Last Hurrah part but I won't hold my breath for it
I do believe that the demilitarization of NATO was an unwritten goal of the SMO and it is being accomplished. NATO does not have the armament to go up against Russia and I doubt if more will be made after the immanent economic collapse we are watching occur.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 29 2023 16:53 utc | 2
Re: Peace Talks
It’s difficult to reconcile the War Aims of the parties at this stage into any compromise peace:
Kiev - All ‚Russians‘ out of 1991 Borders. This means ethnic cleansing of approx. 10 million people (at least)
Washington - Ethnic Cleansing as per above plus dismemberment of Russian into a dozen or more statelets.
Moscow - NATO back to 1997.
Can any Barfly help me figure out a path towards peace in the next few months given these war aims ?
Posted by: Exile | Apr 29 2023 16:54 utc | 3
One almost has to wonder if the Zelenskyy regime hadn't partly bought into the propaganda of "Russia is running out of artillery shells", and thus didn't envision just how bad things could get for the AFU in Bakhmut.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Apr 29 2023 16:55 utc | 4
Posted by: Babel-17 | Apr 29 2023 16:55 utc | 4
Babel, that was one of many aspects of reality that the Kiev regime decided to ignore.
It seems a cult of irrational hatred and a chance to skim billions in a war racket keeps reality at bay.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Apr 29 2023 17:00 utc | 5
@Exile
it is not that complicated. everyone makes maximalist claims so that in the process of negotiation they give something up and still land in an acceptable location.
most likely outcome is a cease fire and everyone holds the land they currently occupy with no further formal agreement.
that is what happened in korea and it has lasted for decades.
Posted by: trill | Apr 29 2023 17:00 utc | 6
Re: Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 29 2023 16:53 utc | 2
There is no "economic collapse" on the way. Not sure where you are located but life is good and the future looks prosperous.
As for Bakhmut, the Ukrainians are clearly keen to keep this battle waging for as long as possible, and likely have been tasked with holding Bakhmut (or at least a part of it), at through the G7 meeting in Hiroshima from May 19-21, 2023 - this suggests there is likely to be another month of fighting in Bakhmut - it will not be "wrapped up" in the next few days - the next few weeks maybe.
Posted by: Julian | Apr 29 2023 17:00 utc | 7
The song Ukrainians in Poland and the rest of the West are singing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRVkS6Owp9Q
Posted by: Bob in Portland, Ore | Apr 29 2023 17:01 utc | 8
Can any Barfly help me figure out a path towards peace in the next few months given these war aims ?
Posted by: Exile | Apr 29 2023 16:54 utc | 3
Yes. Russia crushes Ukr in Artemovsk, runs almost unobstructed through the rest of Ukr, flattens Lviv, Z capitulates, Nato runs tail between legs. The rest of Ukr oblasts vote for independence or join Russia. Russia rebuilds those that join. The rest wither away. Monsanto/Blackrock cry. Eos.
Posted by: Mary | Apr 29 2023 17:01 utc | 9
As Andrzejczak himself admitted: “We just don’t have ammunition. The industry is not ready not only to send equipment to Ukraine, but also to replenish our stocks, which are melting. ... Accordingly, this observation means that Kiev’s upcoming counteroffensive will likely be its “last hurrah” prior to resuming peace talks with Russia since the West won’t be able to keep up its assistance for much longer."
B, This observation/statement makes no sense: "We must expend all our resources and then negotiate."
I guess that is some half-wits attempt at political expediency. Which I get - these politicians and bureaucrats dont feel obliged to make sense; they are simply posturing. What confuses me is why do you attempt to give it legitimacy - it insults the intelligence of your audience. Or maybe it doesnt.
Hey, wait a minute...
Posted by: jared | Apr 29 2023 17:01 utc | 10
Exile | Apr 29 2023 16:54 utc | 3--
Given the players, there is none. The unknown answer is what will it take to get Zelensky to ask the Rada to overturn the non-negotiation law. IMO, as long as he's controlled by Team Biden, it will never occur. Thus, either Z, Team Biden, or both must be replaced for negotiations to commence. The recent economic idiocy declared by Team Biden will further sink the Empire's economy and ability to wage chaos, while the quickening pace of dedollarization whittles away at the other end of the candle.
Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 29 2023 17:02 utc | 11
Ukraine and the western world are backed up in the corner.
All the huff puff and sanctions have been a massive failure.
Bar the Propaganda for dummies.
What happens next.
Unwavering support and whatever means. .
What does that mean?
Posted by: jpc | Apr 29 2023 17:04 utc | 12
Just watched Hot Shots today ,and I realized this is the era of US military brilliance 😂 genuinely a lot of people say nations are uneducated and it’s finally hit home for me. Last 2 years with Covid made me see critical thinking but only now I realize I question of it all. The basic big answer. Why. I’m so grateful we have information from great minds and others who think different. That is great as we don’t connect as humans much now in a social pact. Have so much deep thought. I moved to the Netherlands from scotland , people say I’m crazy but being ex military I just knew inside the UK British and our plan did not connect with me. I met a great Dutch girl ,4 years here and finally I realise life is becoming the same why I hated the UK, I’m proud Scottish but not now. 2 years back I thought the EU was good and now I despise it and the filth of US control. So any Tips Gow to deal with it all. 6 cap song medals and all I know now is it’s all been a lie.
Posted by: Scot1and | Apr 29 2023 17:04 utc | 13
I think that clearly the Russian objective is attrition of Ukrainian forces and materials as well as any NATO assets pumped into the theater. Russians must be deliberately slowing down taking Bakhmut because Ukraine/NATO is playing into their core objectives.
Posted by: Beefree | Apr 29 2023 17:05 utc | 14
The "last hurrah" for Ukraine is already fading from view in the rear view mirror. What the good general -along with everybody else that goes around using conditioal terms like "if they lose" apparently misses, is that this is already the third defeat in a row for Kiev. They've already lost two whole armies and this third one, whose chances were blown by the utter idiocy of immolating itself on Bakhmut where it has been defeated by a "rent-a-cop" company can no longer come up with the cannon fodder or the cannons from across the entire planet to get anything significant done. The delusional thinking across the West continues spreading like the metastatic cancer that it is.
Posted by: DrCiber | Apr 29 2023 17:06 utc | 15
@karlof1
open question is what team biden decides to do. they have the election next year, so they have to have either peace (wind things down) or war (big escalation) to sell to the voters in 18 months. stalemate and bleeding money does not sell. now that the republicans control the house they wont be able to get more money for ukraine without escalation anyway, so they have to go one way or the other, and very soon.
Posted by: trill | Apr 29 2023 17:08 utc | 16
Could I here write in response to the commenters on "b"'s site who addressed the question of what will happen with remnant Ukraine. A wide range of possibilities mentioned by many who had already given considerable thought to the problem. In contrast to our media classes in Europe who seem to have given no thought to that question at all!
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/04/ukraine-open-thread-2023-100.html#comments
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/04/biden-prepares-to-give-up-on-ukraine.html#comments
The whole prompted by a Sleboda interview. Sleboda, who has relatives in the Crimea and the Donbass and who I believe is in touch with opinion in what will become remant Ukraine, was not particularly optimistic that a quick answer or easy answer to the problem will be found.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luHMVfRP39o&t=3854s
That the SMO was provoked in order to get the European electorates behind the sanctions war seems also to be generally accepted, unless I'm misreading the replies linked to above.
I just wonder if there isn't a possibility that was not mentioned. That the Ukrainian people themselves will get rid of a Kiev government that they must by now know does not have their interests at heart.
Posted by: English Outsider | Apr 29 2023 17:11 utc | 17
cease fire! you mean like minsk 1 and minsk ii.
not!
russia keeps on until eu is broke and nato dissolves!
us is agreement challenged and used all past treaties to gain advantage.
us dod is logistics challenged, it cannot get the f-35 into independent tests, and the longer f-35 takes the weaker f-16, f18 and f-15 become....
us dod massive spending on wunderwaffen, which are unreliable, have no repair chains and used up the funds for fuel and bullets.
the generals and politicians (i repeat myself) believe their 'advertizing' about american competences!
we will be watching president biden rant about 'as long as it takes' in may 2025!
and they think us navy can take on china!!
Posted by: paddy | Apr 29 2023 17:11 utc | 18
Re: Posted by: Scot1and | Apr 29 2023 17:04 utc | 13
2 years back I thought the EU was good and now I despise it and the filth of US control. So any Tips Gow to deal with it all. 6 cap song medals and all I know now is it’s all been a lie.
What do you mean you "thought the EU was good"?!?
Does that mean you voted to REMAIN in the EU in 2016? Seriously?!? Why oh why would anyone vote for that? Utter madness and stupidity.
Posted by: Julian | Apr 29 2023 17:12 utc | 19
Posted by: Exile | Apr 29 2023 16:54 utc | 3
Imo there might be elements among the Western establishment who won't let go of the idea that the sanctions will cause an upswell of opposition to Putin, one that could eventually be enough to depose him.
So if they follow that line of thinking, they might conclude that if they put eliminating some of those sanctions on the bargaining table, the oft talked about, supposedly powerful, oligarchs who are omnipresent in the shadows will see an opportunity to greatly increase their profits, and to freely travel abroad to spend them, and thus will use their supposed great influence to compel Putin to dicker.
That's delusional thinking, imo, given the amount of Russian blood spilled, and the all to real proven threats to Mother Russia itself. Getting sanctions lifted could be an important secondary issue, one which could influence secondary level concessions, but the Russian government is on course to secure Russia's security, or die trying.
Among "the chattering class" there might be scant consideration of Russia's ability to deliver anywhere a measured portion of it's almost inconceivable nuclear arsenal, but I'm sure the Pentagon remains aware of it, and so Russia is going to be "allowed" to spend as much of its strength in an effort to destroy the AFU as it cares to.
The die has been cast, and for political reasons the West has to make the best of this situation as it can. They will eventually declare victory, even if that is after Russian tanks have crossed into central Ukraine, and Zelenskyy is compelled to accept a peace treaty that is far less palatable now then the one Boris Johnson threatened him to reject over a year ago.
"Russia has been weakened, Putin has learned a painful lesson regarding the resolve of the West, and will now behave. Huzzah!"
Posted by: Babel-17 | Apr 29 2023 17:15 utc | 20
One of the things that amuses me of the various stupid kremlinistas and their constant discussing this serious war as if it were a football match (which they cannot watch but can only hear the commentaries by the PR people of both sides) is how weak their pro-RF arguments are, This point by Andrzejczak illustrates:
“Another serious problems concerns refugees’ unwillingness to return to their homeland anytime soon”
A very big deal is that the largest number of ukrainians have moved both before and after the SMO to the Russian Federation, many more than to Germany or Poland, because they feel more secure in the Russian Federation, often among their relatives. They have moved both the escape the collapsing failed state of Ukraine, especially after the 2014 coup, and the massacres by the fascist militias and gangs.
This clear voting-with-your-feet is such a big point as to who really is the bad side in the war that the "Washington Consensus" media had to invent the fantasy that huge numbers of ukrainians have been enslaved and deported by force to the Russian Federation.
Regardless of clear choice by so many ukrainians to seek the security of the Russian Federation, what Andrzejczak is pointing out is that those who had to choose to go to Germany and Poland will not going back, even if peace happens, to a brutal fascist failed state dominated by far-right gangsters.
Posted by: Blissex | Apr 29 2023 17:20 utc | 21
I submit this terrifying scenario to those who may care to read.
As I read about the US planting radioactive sensors around Ukraine I was immediate struck by the idea that they are preparing for a false flag dirty bomb or worse. It was an idea that wouldn't let go and the more I thought about it the more likely this scenario became.
Washington is losing the narrative and the war. They have staked geopolitically everything on this insane Ukraine gambit and it's falling down all around them. Their support within Europe and the United States is quickly eroding and if they fail, it is the end of the entire Neo-con/globalist order. What they need to do...at least in their own minds is, do something that will change the narrative and re-ignite the conflict in a radical way. But what could do that...again in the twisted minds of the warmongers...answer-False flag nuclear device....
Hope I'm wrong and I probably am....but I fear there is a very real possibility that I'm not.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Apr 29 2023 17:23 utc | 22
This observation/statement makes no sense…
Posted by: jared | Apr 29 2023 17:01 utc | 10
The statements of NATO et al rarely make any sense, e.g. „Russia is weak, it will run out of ammunition, weapons, people soon“ vs „if we don’t invest hundreds of billions in new armaments, Russia will be in Berlin, Paris, Madrid next week“…
Posted by: Zet | Apr 29 2023 17:28 utc | 23
Difficult to disagree with General Rajmund Andrzejczak here.
Senior soldiers know the score.
I also suspect, albeit with no empirical evidence, that the so called 'Pentagon Leaks' was intentionally facilitated by a senior soldier IN the Pentagon.
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 29 2023 17:29 utc | 24
@ Posted by: Blissex | Apr 29 2023 17:20 utc | 21
Yes, well the people and the nation are incidental to the objectives. I am not sure that it is the intent, but the net affect has been de-natzify Ukraine and de-militarize Europe. But unfortunately has strengthened the facism in west.
Posted by: jared | Apr 29 2023 17:31 utc | 25
For anyone interested in the role of crude, lying propaganda in this war, I suggest they take a long look at the photo "evidence" produced by Ukrainian propagandaists about the "massacres" supposedly committed by Russkie forces in "Butsha" .. selected due to the place.name sounding like the English "butcher".. But You must find back to images and films that have markers on them that record the times an moments that they were taken: Then the lies of Ukraine propaganda come out clear,
Posted by: Tollef Ås/秋涛乐/טלפ וש | Apr 29 2023 17:35 utc | 26
Can any Barfly help me figure out a path towards peace in the next few months given these war aims ?Posted by: Exile | Apr 29 2023 16:54 utc | 3
There isn't any.
The likes of Nuland, Pompeo, Bolton, Burns, Blinken and rest of the deep state will never accept peace.
The only end here is escalation into a global conflict, either from Ukraine, Taiwan/South China sea or Syria/Middle East.
However, there is one path the yields the least body count - a civil war in the US.
This civil war doesn't have to like the last one, blue states vs red states. No.
It has to be a repeat of Jan 6, 2021, but this time the crowd should be twice as big, carry the guns rather than leaving them in the hotels.
They should gather around the HQs of the alphabet agencies especially the FBI, and demand the organizations be disbanded within 12 hours or threaten to to pull trigger. No bluffs.
The fundamental problem in the US is censorship. If everyone could voice out their opinions, their feedback of how politicians are performing their jobs, without being censored, fired, cancelled or shouted down, most problems could be sorted out.
The cause of censorship is not big tech but the FBI and other alphabet agencies interfering with big tech in violation of the first amendment.
The solution is simple. The alphabet agencies need to be taken out. By force if necessary. Both America and the rest of the world will be a better place, if/when that happens.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Apr 29 2023 17:37 utc | 27
Just a guess what will happen. But after Bakhmut there'll be no further advance in that sector, except Ivanovske should fall almost automatically after Bakhmut. The front line straightens which means that it becomes easier to defend against potential Ukraine attacks with a smaller force, which enables shifting forces to wrap up Avdeevka, Maryinka and Ugledar. Then the focus shifts to the Zaporozhye (south front), where the open terrain favors Russia. Ukraine can fight more effectively in urban areas, which is also partial reason for holding on to Bakhmut, but they will suffer a lot on open terrain.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 29 2023 17:39 utc | 28
My opinion is that the drawn-out conflict over Bakmut has allowed the Russians time to accomplish the re-organization their military - to change from BTG formations into larger division groupings as Shoigu had announced in December last year. Any time there is a major re-organization as this has been, on top of the newly mobilized soldiers entering the battle lines, there is going to be some chaos and coordination difficulties to resolve.
It should make the Russian military more effective once the ground dries.
Posted by: Belle | Apr 29 2023 17:41 utc | 29
What I don't understand is why is the counter-offensive continues to be advertised. Shouldn't such thing be a surprise? Or is this the Western idea of a psy-op? Russia doesn't seem impressed with all this sound and fury, which really signifies nothing.
Posted by: Steve | Apr 29 2023 17:42 utc | 30
The illegal European Union has a financial flare-up on its hands, because war is a racket.
...from defensenews
EU nations quarrel over where to buy fresh ammo for Ukraine
. . .the EU now boasts a war chest of €8 billion, known as the European Peace Facility, which it is using to arm Russia’s neighbors, compensating EU states which donate tanks, planes and guns to Kyiv – and now buying ammunition for Ukraine.
. . .On Nov. 15 last year, the EU issued a rule that compensation cash handed out did not have to be spent in the bloc – it could also be used to buy most products in the United States. Detailing the decision, an EU spokesperson told Defense News, “EU member states have agreed on a series of rules, particularly when the items are on the Common Military List of the European Union, which limit their origin to EU, member states and a number of non-EU countries, including the U.S.” Those other non-EU countries include Norway, Canada, Israel, South Korea, the U.K. and others, the spokesperson added.
. . .It also includes ammunition. However, in March, when the European Union Council issued recommendations for speeding up the joint ammunition purchase for Ukraine using Peace Facility funds, it stated: “The Council further calls on member states to jointly procure 155-mm ammunition and, if requested, missiles for Ukraine in the fastest way possible before 30 September 2023 from the European defense industry (and Norway).”
Explaining why the recommendation excluded U.S. purchases despite the Peace Facility rules allowing such buys, an EU source, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations, told Defense News the rules had been conceived to help armed forces around the world which benefited from the fund and might have needed to buy from outside the EU.
The huge amounts of money involved in the ammunition buy, meanwhile, meant the cash was better off being spent in the EU, the source argued. . . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 29 2023 17:43 utc | 31
Babel17 no. 4
Well if they read "sly" news it's no wonder:
"Wagner Group 'could cease to exist', founder warns"
"Russia's Wagner Group, which is leading the assault on the eastern city of Bakhmut, could soon cease to exist, its founder Yevgeny Prigozhin has warned.
In video remarks to Russian war blogger Semyon Pegov, Mr Prigozhin said: "Now, with regard to the need in general for shells at the front, what we want.
"Today we are coming to the point where Wagner is ending.
"Wagner, in a short period of time, will cease to exist. We will become history, nothing to worry about, things like this happen.""
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Apr 29 2023 17:49 utc | 32
Hope I'm wrong and I probably am....but I fear there is a very real possibility that I'm not.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Apr 29 2023 17:23 utc | 22
You need to understand how incompetent these people really are. Let that fact give you hope.
Posted by: osi | Apr 29 2023 17:50 utc | 33
Posted by: Steve | Apr 29 2023 17:42 utc | 30
One should remember that the counter-offensive narrative is by now almost 6 months old. It began almost immediately after Ukraine walked into Kherson.
Since then there have been a lot of setbacks in accumulating uncommitted forces. Maybe by now they have, theoretically 250 tanks and 1000 AFV as advertised. But the thing is, they were also used up elsewhere, especially in/around Bakhmut. Precision strikes on rear area storage, bombs hitting front and rear lines and artillery superiority all take a toll on them. That's not to say that they don't have an uncommitted force available. We'll see if something happens, maybe an elastic defense allows them to advance somewhere, they stall out and then get hammered by airpower and artillery.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 29 2023 17:50 utc | 34
re: As [Poland's] Andrzejczak himself admitted, “We just don’t have ammunition. The industry is not ready not only to send equipment to Ukraine, but also to replenish our stocks, which are melting.
yes . . .from Newsweek
Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe James Stavridis warned on Friday that both the United States and Ukraine are running low on ammunition as Russia's war drags on. . . .here
James George Stavridis is a retired United States Navy admiral, currently vice chair, global affairs and managing director of the global investment firm the Carlyle Group, and Chair of the Board of Trustees of the Rockefeller Foundation.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 29 2023 17:53 utc | 35
Steve no. 30
But then the MSM would have nothing to write about.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Apr 29 2023 17:58 utc | 36
counter-offensive narrative is by now almost 6 months old
it is very possible that it was always only a desperation ploy in order to keep russia in a defensive posture and not commit their forces more strongly to offense. we will see in the next few months. the danger with that ploy is that once it is revealed the offensive tide will move very quickly.
Posted by: trill | Apr 29 2023 18:03 utc | 37
@Exile | Apr 29 2023 16:54 utc | 3
The path to peace lies in the unconditional surrender or total defeat of the Washington owned Ukrainian government, with the puppets being put on trial, pour encourager les autres. Anything else will not achieve Russia's stated objectives, and as nobody can stop Russia from achieving it's objectives except themselves, it is unlikely that Russia will accept less than they want.
Posted by: Hermit | Apr 29 2023 18:03 utc | 38
I just wonder if there isn't a possibility that was not mentioned. That the Ukrainian people themselves will get rid of a Kiev government that they must by now know does not have their interests at heart.Posted by: English Outsider | Apr 29 2023 17:11 utc | 17
What means did you have in mind by which the Ukrainian people could get rid of the government in Kiev? From what's been posted at this site, it would seem difficult even to safely organize and stage peaceful opposition against Kiev, let alone violent.
Posted by: David Levin | Apr 29 2023 18:07 utc | 39
How refreshing that this discussion has occurred this morning without the "contributions" of our resident trolls, who lately have made up about 50% of the posts on a given day! I guess it's Saturday so they are doing errands or having fun instead of "working at the office."
Posted by: patriot1217 | Apr 29 2023 18:07 utc | 40
7.
'There is no "economic collapse" on the way. Not sure where you are located but life is good and the future looks prosperous.'
A tipping point approaches.
I am unsure if you missed the recent canaries in the coal mine, Credit Suisse et al.
Keep telling yourself there is nothing to worry about. It's the same copium the Germans are high on.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Apr 29 2023 18:07 utc | 41
@ Steve | Apr 29 2023 17:42 utc | 30
What I don't understand is why is the counter-offensive continues to be advertised.
In regard to Afghanistan, for many years the concerned general officer and civilian dopes frequently pronounced that "we have turned the corner" in Afghanistan. And look how that turned out.
So the US/NATO/EU narrative is that the "counter-offensive" will lead to a turned corner, the story goes.
. . .my basis rule: If the government says something, assume that the opposite is true.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 29 2023 18:08 utc | 42
Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 29 2023 17:02 utc | 11
I agree. Therefore the war will continue into 2024. Ukrainian army will continue to bleed and Russians will gradually and surely take more land, but they will not rush anywhere. The pain of inflation and potential recession will become uncomfortable for the West. Perhaps there will be a chain reaction of neocon removal starting perhaps with Zelensky, and followed by Biden, Van der Lyen and then all the others.
Posted by: Milos | Apr 29 2023 18:10 utc | 43
oshi (33)
Funny, that is the very thing that terrifies me. They are arrogant, ignorant and incompetent....it's what led them to destroy the nordstreams and it is the same demented thought process that will lead them to a false flag nuke.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Apr 29 2023 18:13 utc | 44
Exile: It’s difficult to reconcile the War Aims of the parties at this stage
b recently posted a tweet from @HungaryBased: Viktor Orbán explains the reason for the war in Europe.
"Complete restructuring of power within Europe"
i rec https://twitter.com/HungaryBased/status/1651971665973108740
Posted by: annie | Apr 29 2023 18:15 utc | 45
Doctor eleven no. 41
"Eurozone economy avoids recession ‘by a whisker’"
Warmer winter, lower energy prices and China’s reopening help bloc surprise economists and stave off recession.
Fri 28 Apr 2023
"The eurozone has defied predictions that the Ukraine war would plunge it into recession after a warm winter blunted the impact of higher energy prices."
Lucky this time.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Apr 29 2023 18:16 utc | 46
Ammunition is a hot topic. I just googled "ammunition for ukraine" and must have gotten forty recent articles. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 29 2023 18:20 utc | 47
@ Don Bacon | Apr 29 2023 17:53 utc | 35 with the support of my contention that he demilitarization of NATO is a feature, not a bug, of our current reality
Thanks
Do barflies get that the surrender of Ukraine/NATO/empire needs to be acceptance of a multi-polar world where things like NATO don't exist and all inter-nation spats are hammered out in something like the UN?
All this talk of splitting up this country and that continues to miss the point of our civilization war which Russia and China are showing they are winning hands down.
The future is not evenly distributed......but when parts catch up now and then, watch out!
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 29 2023 18:20 utc | 48
thanks b..
@3 exile..
no one knows.. and the last place to look for an idea is via the mainstream press!
it’s all endless speculation..
what we do know:
usa and. friends wanted to bleed russia dry with the sanctions… this writing has been on the wall a good 10 or more years..
usa is in a slow or fast decline and determined to take their friends down with them too..i know… weird choice of words- friends..
russia continues to play a long game here.. china has increasingly sided up with russia, because they know they will be next..
as to the local problems, as english outsider observes, many ukees have decided with their. feet.. crimea decided in a vote.. the nazis decided on the battlefield…. this thing will eventually wind down, hopefully before the losers go for complete broke.. this ain’t las vegas.. house wins every time.. that would be the mil and banking complex here, but as one notes from the talk from yellen and sullivan, even that is on real shaky ground here, thanks this collosal usa foriegn policy blunder..
Posted by: james | Apr 29 2023 18:29 utc | 49
@19
"Why did anyone vote REMAIN in 2016?"
Main reasons:
i Business: Europe was (is) the UK's biggest trading partner
ii. Business: supply chain convenience and coherence of goods transport regulations within the EU
iii. Ethics: Human rights law and enviro/food regulation coherence across members states
If you owned or worked for a UK business trading with Europe it made sense to vote REMAIN. Most Remainers were not 100% behind the EU project (particularly wrt the fact that the EU is largely an undemocratic institution), but they knew which side their bread was buttered.
Of course, back in 2016 far fewer people realized that the EU was run by an SS of Atlanticist neocon zealots, proto-naszii Russia-haters and fanatical pseudo-Green luddites.
Posted by: Cornelius Pipe | Apr 29 2023 18:31 utc | 50
@Scot1and | Apr 29 2023 17:04 utc | 13
2 years back I thought the EU was good and now I despise it and the filth of US control.I'm in another country than you, but I voted NO to the EU almost 30 years ago (in 1994) for much the same reasons you give. It was easy to see even then what was coming.
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 29 2023 18:35 utc | 51
RUSSIAN TACTICS:
It has been widely speculated that Russia was setting up cauldrons or kettles for the Ukrainian troops. These death traps fell nicely into the hands of a Zelensky view of not allowing the Russians any "Ukrainian" territory.
Bakhmut has been one of those death traps. Marinka and Ardivka are 2 others.
The most effective cauldron so far has been Bakhmut where a lot of Ukrainian troops have met their Maker or been severely wounded. The days of this cauldron are almost over with the AFU controlling only around 7% of Bakhmut. Soon it will be called by its Russian name of "Artemovsk".
Russia has been more than willing to trade territory for a better position to kill greater numbers of Ukrainian troops. This tactic helped Russia to shape the battle field to their liking. Often the Russians retreated to set up more effective killing fields.
With superior artillery, missile forces, drones, tanks, and air forces; the devastation upon Ukraine's men has been horrific. Of course this would not have been possible without Zelensky's insistence of taking back every square meter of land the Russian's occupied.
Still to this day, Zelensky says that Crimea will also be taken back. I don't know if Zelensky is crazy or just high on too much of that expensive white powder. Nonetheless, the Russians have pretty well dug in to the current zero lines throughout Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, Kharkov and Luhansk.
For sure the Russians don't want to take Zelensky out at this point. He works perfectly into the Russian plasn to demilitarize Ukraine and the rest of the NATO West. Also, the "no square meter" policy of Zelensky has cost both Ukraine and the West dearly in terms of their economies.
No other actor could have been so devastating to the West than Zelensky. He became Time's "Person of the Year 2022. The West loves him. I know officially he will never be the "Person of the Year" in Russia. But behind closed Russian military doors, the vodka and smiles and cheers must be abundant when the topic of Zelensky comes to fro.
Now Ukraine is attempting to start another large counter attack to further Zelensky's "no square meter" policy towards Russia.
Such attacks worked out pretty well for Zelensky last year in Karkov and Kherson. Yet, since that time, Russia's General Surovikin has significantly fortified the zero lines. Soon the fields will dry and the Western deliveries of military hardware and other will be fulfilled. Thereafter, Zelensky will no doubt attack again. Such tactics worked in the past. So, they will be attempted yet again.
I don't think they will be so successful this time because the Russians have had plenty of time to shape the battlefield in the last 6 months to their liking. One example ot their shaping has been Bakhmut. The AFU (Army Forces of Ukraine) know pretty well know what Bakhmut has cost them so far. The Russians do to. This is why behind closed doors the Russians are celebrating Zelensky's policy of "no square meter" for Russia.
I don't know where the next great Ukrainian offensive will go and what their results will be. However, I do think it is coming after the fields dry at their planned attack points along the zero lines.
I think this "great" offensive will soundly fail. If this is the case, Russia most likely will change tactics to taking territory after its failure. Until then, the Russians are getting ready to make their Russian meat grinder is much more effective than ever.
The grind of war continues. And a lot of that grind has already come the way of Ukraine's men. Those who have been maimed will soon lose both their medical and financial support as the bear continues to tear into their ranks and destroys the Western economies.
The stagnant zero lines along the battle fronts are about to become quite dynamic.
Posted by: young | Apr 29 2023 18:35 utc | 52
is pointing out is that those who had to choose to go to Germany and Poland will not going back
Blissex | Apr 29 2023 17:20 utc | 21
Only those somehow useful for the West will remain in the West. A few months ago Ukr was asking for info on all men refugees. Eventually some will be sent back, more or less by force. I'm sure they can find at least 100k in those millions. You think those training camps all over EU are only for Ukr soldiers taken from Ukr? I don't think so. Those are for terrorists collected from everywhere, for refugees and only a few soldiers taken from Ukr. They will become EU's private army of terrorists and then, exactly like with NS, "unknown people invaded a bit and blew up something".
What I don't understand is why is the counter-offensive continues to be advertised. Shouldn't such thing be a surprise?
Posted by: Steve | Apr 29 2023 17:42 utc | 30
They advertised even a bigger one for Azovstal last year but no one remembers it now. Even when those terrorists surrendered, msm put the title that they were "liberated". You have to observe that these stories come mostly from UK, the home of the most retarded media on the planet.
Posted by: rk | Apr 29 2023 18:40 utc | 53
"Bakhmut/Aryomovsk is to 90% under Russian control and the rest will be captured during the next few days."
You keep saying that, but here we are. Have you ever stopped to consider that your uncritical ingestion of Russian propaganda is the reason your predictions are always wrong? I am not saying the UK sides propaganda is any more reliable...but the refusal to consider alternative views, other than your preferred echo chamber views makes you look like a fool.
Posted by: Longhorn | Apr 29 2023 18:42 utc | 54
@JustAMaverick | Apr 29 2023 17:23 utc | 22
If anyone agones that Russia, which has already stated that it will react to the use of DU in Ukraine with a military and technical response as if a dirty bomb has been deployed, will not react to deployment of an actual dirty bomb, then their degree of delusion is such that they are a threat to others as well as themselves.
Who in the world imagines that it is worth sacrificing a major city in order to annoy or inconvenience Russia?
We will learn the answer in the fullness of time, but your thinking this is a possibility is perhaps a warning that Western leaders should be placed in psychiatric institutes and fed antipsychotics for our, and their own, protection.
Posted by: Hermit | Apr 29 2023 18:43 utc | 55
No negotiations, no settlement, no matter what -- Russia must take Odessa and Kharkiv at all costs or face constant aggro.
Posted by: chet380 | Apr 29 2023 18:43 utc | 56
Posted by: young | Apr 29 2023 18:35 utc | 52
Here is another one. It has taken Russia 8 months to capture one town in the Donbass and they still have not done it, yet here you are making more predictions of Russian dominance. I guess that's why Putin replaces his chain-of-command every three months...all the success.
Posted by: Longhorn | Apr 29 2023 18:45 utc | 57
Don Bacon 42
. . .my basis rule: If the government says something, assume that the opposite is true.
Adding to that, whatever narrative the MSM is pushing as well. Everytime I hear about an uprising in a country, the first thing I want to know is who are the Americans backing so I know who the bad guys are.
Posted by: Watzov | Apr 29 2023 18:46 utc | 58
@35, Don Bacon, Hey Don, I heard Stavridis on a radio interview last year, won't mention the show, as they're staunchly pro Ukraine and a bit delusional. He was full of hopium back then. I wasn't impressed with him. And there's another "analyst" I believe named Myers who's in a similar vein. All rah rah rah, Russia is losing. Similar to Gordon Chang on China.
Posted by: Immaculate deception | Apr 29 2023 18:46 utc | 59
I think the recent DiEM25 proposal (Yanis Varoufakis et al) is an eminently reasonable one.
Check it out - https://diem25.org/diem25-has-plan-for-peace-ukraine/
Posted by: Lone Druid | Apr 29 2023 18:47 utc | 60
So many here think "negotiation" is desirable and possible, including our host. The only thing I see as even remotely "negotiable" is what manner of feast Z and team would like for their final meal and what manner of departure from this breathing world they wish to undergo upon finishing it. Regarding recompense for the curators of Z and team, well . . . . .
Posted by: The Rev. David R. Gr | Apr 29 2023 18:48 utc | 61
The tale of the counter-offensive can be many things, depending on what we hear and from whom.
From the recent 'leaks' to many a comment from less overtly irrational military figures and other so-called experts and insiders comes the narrative that the (by now overexposed) subject of a counter-offensive actually relates to a last ditch effort before the Ukraine cries "Uncle" and the narrative abruptly switches to a "let's talk for a while" dialogue.
As opposed to Ukrainian nonsense about taking back Crimea, etc, we hear more frequently of the counter-offensive as a tactical gambit prior to a cry for ceasing of hostilities.
This tells us that sans the much anticipated counter-offensive, the eventual position at the table can only get worse as time marches on - and here we have to be precise - that 'time' being the time spent in war-fighting versus the time spent in negotiating and implementing any deals made.
What the Russians (and the rest of the world) have learned since at least 2014 is undeniable, that any agreements will be violated by design and will immediately begin, more fully rearming a hostile force in both Ukraine and the EU&UK.
This kind of 'time' spent is ultimately bad for Russia.
The longer Russia continues to grind away and delay any counter-offensive by pre-emptive attacks, the worse the position of the Ukraine and it's western overlords will be at the eventual table. If this goes on long enough, as the music continues, there may be fewer seats at the table than today. The Ukraine may not be able to hold out that long, but i'm sure its masters have other escalatory contingencies in waiting.
Presently, I say, "Let the Russian way of war in Ukraine continue". Every day that passes pays many dividends...at least for now. Nothing last forever after all!
Posted by: Spinworthy | Apr 29 2023 18:57 utc | 62
Posted by: David Levin | Apr 29 2023 18:07 utc | 39
Yes, from the little that comes out the repression has been horrendous. There is definitely a "last days in the Bunker" feel coming out of Kiev as well.
The extremist/neo-Nazi/OUN stratum are in control and have no alternative but to keep going until the bitter end. As in 1945 defeat means the end of all they hope for. Those skimming the aid will wish to continue skimming as long as possible.
But underneath all that there will be ordinary patriotic Ukrainians slowly realising they have been taken for a ride.
We've knowingly plunged our proxies into a war for which they we knew they would be outmatched. What they've got is enough to "bleed the Russians", though at immense cost to themselves. It was never going to be enough to defeat them.
Nor are the Ukrainians themselves fools. They knew that as well. They would not have entered into this war, and they certainly would not still be fighting it after Istanbul, had they not believed that when it got serious NATO would come in in support.
What has Zelensky been doing since the SMO started? Frantically touring the capitals of the West to get more support from NATO. Sacrificing whole armies in the hope that NATO would see how desperately they were fighting and come in to back them up.
NATO hasn't, for all the fiery talk from such as Stoltenberg and Borrell. We're now seeing both Washington and Berlin/Brussels backing off. Getting ready to hang the Ukrainians out to dry.
They know that. I believe many in the Kiev administration know that. And we are seeing in Transcarpathia what we saw in 2015: increasing resistance to the draft. Is that not likely elsewhere?
So although it seems a most unlikely possibility right now, I don't believe that it's entirely impossible that elements in the Kiev administration, backed by increasing popular disillusionment, might attempt to arrive at a settlement before it is forced on them.
Posted by: English Outsider | Apr 29 2023 19:01 utc | 63
JustAMaverick | Apr 29 2023 17:23 utc | 22
As I read about the US planting radioactive sensors around Ukraine I was immediate struck by the idea that they are preparing for a false flag dirty bomb or worse.
Yes.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 29 2023 19:07 utc | 64
Almost any negotiated settlement that leaves the Ukrainian state intact with the ability to partner with Nato to rearm and rebuild it's military will be a Russian defeat. Finland has now joined Nato so the political aims of the war for Russia, must have expanded.
A Russian victory - defined as Russia achieving it's political goals: lasting security against Nato and justice for Russian ethnic minorities - will only be achievable if Russia is able to dictate terms in Ukraine. Russia's ability to do this rests on an unknown quantity. We don't really know how capable Russia is of conducting offensive operations.
Thus far we can only accept the Russian narrative that they are conducting a war of attrition which means battle like Bakhmut - slow incremental attack designed to limit Russian casualties .
This will never be enough to defeat Ukraine - unless the west completely gives up on Ukraine. At some point, Russia will have to go over to the attack to shape the physical conditions on the ground for a political settlement that will be victory. We don't know if they are capable of that. We all think they are, but we don't really know and have not seen solid evidence suggesting that they are.
Posted by: Dan Farrand | Apr 29 2023 19:08 utc | 65
paddy #18
Exactly that. It's good news week AGAIN!
"beaten by rent a cop" :)
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 29 2023 19:09 utc | 66
It seems a cult of irrational hatred and a chance to skim billions in a war racket keeps reality at bay.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Apr 29 2023 17:00 utc | 5
Thanks T, that's exactly it.
Posted by: Samm | Apr 29 2023 19:11 utc | 67
@Dan Farrand
the problem with your thinking is that you assume that russia is not benefiting from the war.
in fact, the war is highly beneficial to putin and his ruling party and there long term plans. it has weakened his opposition, united the population, and given him the external threat that he needs to rebuild the russian economy independently from anglo-american controlled institutions, which requires some short term pain, but will have long term payoff.
as long as the costs are relatively low, which they are, russia (defined as putin and his party) may benefit from continuing the war for several years.
russia went into syria for no reason at all other than to exercise their military. fighting in ukraine is much more advantageous for them than that.
russias biggest export after oil is weapons and demonstrating their weapons in the field against nato leads to a lot of sales.
it is just a business.
Posted by: trill | Apr 29 2023 19:21 utc | 68
MSM headlines boasting about the drone strike in Sevastopol today but not a peep here...
Will the RF finally turn the lights out in the Ukraine?
Has Russia been drawing "red lines" with invisible ink?
Posted by: Just Observing | Apr 29 2023 19:28 utc | 69
@Just Observing
they blew up 1 storage tank (you can see the other around it unaffected) in a country that pumps millions of barrels of oil a day. the fact that this is what the western media heralds as a major win pretty much shows you where they are at.
Posted by: trill | Apr 29 2023 19:33 utc | 70
Exile | Apr 29 2023 16:54 utc | 3
Follow the money. Why have major corporations (US) been buying tracts of land and assets in Ukraine, if it is going to cease to exist?.
The answer is that they do NOT think it will be taken over by the Russians.
They will keep buying as long as Zelenski has something to sell, or is able to sell. At which point, they will either rally behind a "freezing" of the fronts, or a complete destruction of the Russians. Mainly in order to create a "territorial non-state land", such exists in the North east of Syria. Steal assets (don't pay,) No taxes and no auditing of whatever is stolen. In the pocket! Or these can then be used as "collateral" and can be "subsidised by the EU and US. It solves some problems of shortages of rare earth elements. Strangely, I was going to say "precious bodily fluids", but Oil is a near substitute.
The US military would be happy with this as it simply means more profits for the Generals and the arms industry, and this would give them time to re-establish their arms supplies and start all over again.
**
Would the Russians agree to this? Of course they won't. Clearly they are not going to go back to the "old" front lines, whatever anyone says. However, this is the direction that the financial world would try for. RE-dollarization, shift to China and the restablishment of US control over international organizations, SWIFT etc. Back to the good old days for Neocons. Rah,rah.
***
The Russians would keep their SMO going, as the end result of that line of action is that the Ukrainians would be the ones being bled dry. The absolute linguistic, religious and racial repression in Ukraine, and with all the opponents of Zelensky eliminated, they could not continue ONCE the assets ARE all stolen (in the hands of the Corporations). The EU and US can't continue to pay for the war without their own monetary systems being stabilized first.
****
I reckon the US will eventually do an "Afghan trot". A sudden walk-out.
For this to happen the forces now being set up by NATO/US will be called upon to "perform" personally. Something they are trying to avoid unless they can "fight" against an inferior opponent. Which is not the case. Plus a growing financial crisis and civil disorder in their home countries. In other words, the ending will come from outside the immediate theatres of war.
It has been rumored by excellent sources that roughly 12000 men and equipment from Ft. Steward Ga are being readied to be sent to Poland soon. The bulk of this force is heavy artillery . I would expect that this is connected to Bidens reelection bid.
Posted by: PhCheese | Apr 29 2023 19:36 utc | 72
@Exile
it is not that complicated. everyone makes maximalist claims so that in the process of negotiation they give something up and still land in an acceptable location.
most likely outcome is a cease fire and everyone holds the land they currently occupy with no further formal agreement.
that is what happened in korea and it has lasted for decades.
Posted by: trill | Apr 29 2023 17:00 utc | 6
The Korean war went on for 2 additional years over the issue of repatriation of Chinese POWs back to China. The US wanted them to stay in South Korea as a propaganda tool, the Chinese wanted them home.
To get their way, the US conducted assault after assault against the Chinese/DPRK positions, all failed...
Eventually, the US caved in....
You, and like commenters seem to forget that Minsk I and II were ceasefires which prevented the total and utter collapse of Ukie forces...
AND....
Were acknowledged later to have been ploys to buy time with which to arm the Ukies for their push to dis-member Russia...
There is no way the Russians will stop short of victory now....
I say again....
There is no way the Russians will stop short of victory now....
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Apr 29 2023 19:37 utc | 73
There is no "economic collapse" on the way. Not sure where you are located but life is good and the future looks prosperous.
Posted by: Julian | Apr 29 2023 17:00 utc | 7
-------------------------------------------------------
I am happy that life has been good for you Mr. Julian: milk, and honey.
Posted by: Ed | Apr 29 2023 19:42 utc | 74
@trill 16
Sorry, but they don't need to "sell" anything, since the US elections are now tallied by the Democrat party and as Joe Stalin told us, it's not who votes, but who counts the votes. They installed a senile pedophile obviously only in it for the bribes as president, and will give him four more years if they feel like it.
Posted by: JT | Apr 29 2023 19:44 utc | 75
@Exile, #3:
Peace comes after some bloody noses were wiped clean and heads cleared regarding reality.
Have faith! Even though they've been behaving like animals, I still believe they are humanoids after all. Senses will set in after the bloody noses, and talks will bring the kind of new global rules and orders as most barflies here have been hoping for.
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Apr 29 2023 19:55 utc | 76
Putin famously boasted: "don't they know I could take Kiev in two weeks?"
It's been 14 months, Vlad.
Don't you guys sense that something is off?
You say: "Russia has a 10 to 1 artillery advantage!" Yeah, anyone can spray shells all over a country. Is it making a difference anywhere though?
Donbass is still getting shelled.
Ukrainians are conducting assassinations in Moscow.
Sebastopol is on fire.
NATO has expanded.
You say: "Ukraine is taking losses of 8 to 1! We have annihilated two entire ukrainian armies!" And yet it does not seem to keep Ukraine from fighting.
Russia is in the 9th month of taking the 56th city in Ukraine.
"Bakhmut is operationally encircled!" you have been saying for the last 3 months. And yet Ukraininans apparently still get supplied.
You hail one city block being taken like it's the battle of Kursk.
And the rest of the conflict is in stalemate. The frontline is not moving anywhere. Russia is stuck in a quagmire, incapable of prevailing against a poor, corrupt country one third its population. You reassure yourselves that Russia ought to be able to push back an ukrainian offensive you nervously wait for.
Is that really what you thought you were signing up for 14 months ago? Be honest!
Posted by: Jean-Baptiste Moquel | Apr 29 2023 19:55 utc | 77
With all the Hurrah about the mysterious Ukrainian counteroffensive and Selensky fantasizing day and night about presiding over some Nuremberg Tribunal 2.0, where he'll sentence President Putin for his crimes etc etc etc, people seem to have forgotten about the Russian Counteroffensive. Which was - presumably - postponed for the same reason as the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Bad weather. There never was an extended period of frost that would have made the ground suitable for any large offensive.
Meaning that all the tanks, the armoured vehicles, all the ammunition, all the artillery and all the soldiers Russia had gotten ready for a big offensive are still hiding somewhere. Ready for whatever the Russian command needs them to do.
Might be worth thinking about for a minute or two what that might be.
Posted by: Marvin | Apr 29 2023 19:55 utc | 78
«and as Joe Stalin told us, it's not who votes, but who counts the votes.»
Some years ago I tracked down the original reference:
Boris Bazhanov "The Memoirs of Stalin's Former Secretary" 1992.
http://lib.ru/MEMUARY/BAZHANOW/stalin.txt
"Знаете, товарищи," - говорит Сталин, "что я думаю по этому поводу: я считаю, что совершенно неважно, кто и как будет в партии голосовать; но вот что очень важно, это - кто и как будет считать голоса"
"You know, comrades," says Stalin, "what I think about this: I believe that it does not matter at all who will vote in the party and how; but what is very important is who will count the votes and how"
Posted by: Blissex | Apr 29 2023 19:58 utc | 79
«since the US elections are now tallied by the Democrat party»
That is a silly statement about a very serious problem in USA politics, one that suits well several malicious lobbies though:
* Federal elections, including those for the Electoral College and this the presidency and vice-presidency, are run and supervised by the states, in practice by counties.
* Unlike the federal level, which changes parties fairly often, many areas at the state and county level have nearly permanent majorities of one party or even just one clique within a party, which control the election process in their areas, leading to enormous and common election cheating[NOTE1].
* This means that those at the state or country level who control those areas also in effect decide the result of federal elections in those areas. In most places federal elections are first-past-the-post, so this does not change the outcome, but in some cases it does.
[NOTE1]: in areas where a party always gets a majority there is still often a lot of election cheating, but that is usually to ensure a specific clique within that party gets to win.
Posted by: Blissex | Apr 29 2023 20:06 utc | 80
I thought Russia was a ” gas station masquerading as a country”. Aside from finally giving the NAFO ( ”Nazis And Fags, Oh-my!” ) freaks something to masturbate over, is burning a little Russian gas at all significant?
Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 29 2023 20:10 utc | 81
the Korean war went on for 2 additional years
the korean war has never ended. there has never been any treaty or formal agreement. that is my point. the same outcome in ukraine is very likely.
there is no way to reconcile the competing demands, but as long as the war does not end, ukraine cannot be admitted to nato, so russia achieves its goal, and nato has a fig leaf to say that they were not defeated without admitting ukraine to nato.
keeping ukraine as a dmz between its border and nato is the stated russian goal so a cease fire along these lines would be achieving all of their stated objectives.
russia is not fighting a war with ukraine, they are fighting a war with nato. from their perspective this is only one battle in a centuries long war against the anglo empire. they are not measuring things in months or years.
Posted by: trill | Apr 29 2023 20:12 utc | 82
@trill, #16:
Yeah, election stunts and all, Biden is liable to go wild and go all in just to win in 2024. But there is a slim of hope! After spending millions to bring down some weather balloon; after arduous arm twisting to squeeze out millions from Taiwan's coffer to put into McCarthy's pocket so that the so-called Republican Speaker of a House would bump elbows with a Taiwan chick for shows, all for the sake of spitting China, Biden is now openly begging to be allowed to send his secretaries to China for needed talks. That indicates dementia hasn't set in 100% yet. That means there is some senses left. He may want to win 2024, but he may not dare to risk nuke war.
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Apr 29 2023 20:14 utc | 83
Exile | Apr 29 2023 16:54 utc | 3
Can any Barfly help me figure out a path towards peace in the next few months given these war aims ?
Mary | Apr 29 2023 17:01 utc | 9
Russia crushes Ukraine in Artjomowsk. Goes on to fight sucessfully for control of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. In the meantime, secret mediated talks between USUK and Russia eventually lead to the following solution: Putin settles for the 4 oblasts that voted to become Russian and leaves Odessa and Charkow untouched - which is his contribution toward making the deal possible. Yet he will not compromise on security issues. The rest of Ukraine - after possibly distributing parts to Poland, Romania and Hungary - will become a demilitarized protectorate with limited sovereignty, to which Putin's troops have permanent access to check on any missile launch sites, biolabs or other hidden surprises. Nuclear missiles must not be deployed anywhere near Russia's borders - including Finnland, the Baltics, Poland, Moldovia and Romania.
This is by far my most optimistic scenario, allthough less optimistic than Mary's. It would, however, require some adults in the White House - which is currently not the case.
Posted by: grunzt | Apr 29 2023 20:30 utc | 84
Posted by: Jean-Baptiste Moquel | Apr 29 2023 19:55 utc | 77
lol you people are desperate. shells go up, then they go down. when they go down, they hit targets. these include men and materials.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Apr 29 2023 20:36 utc | 85
Re: Mary #9
Agree ,except no crying from black rock Monsanto- just deals with Russia.
Posted by: Little girl | Apr 29 2023 20:43 utc | 86
JustAMaverick | Apr 29 2023 17:23 utc | 22
As I read about the US planting radiation sensors ... they are preparing for a false flag dirty bomb or worse.
Yes.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 29 2023 19:07 utc | 64
Maybe they are planting the sensors so they know where the UK et al Deeted Uranium armaments fall, so the contamination can be identified cleaned up in the future.
Didn't the UK state now that their Depleted Iranium (Oops typo Uranium) armaments are under control of the Ukrainians that they (the UK) take no responsibility for what Ukraine may do with them?
Remember Uranium rhymes with Ukrainian.
Posted by: Jerr | Apr 29 2023 20:49 utc | 87
The only question really, is who buys the last noose.
Posted by: Little girl | Apr 29 2023 20:49 utc | 88
We should not underestimate The West. They can still print money endlessly. They can buy what they cannot produce. The western consumer-citizen (kleinburger) is still untouched.
Posted by: Srbin | Apr 29 2023 20:51 utc | 89
An Ukrainian group of soldiers with full space level hazmat suits were spotted west of Bakhmut today (and destroyed with arty fire). That's an ominous sign, to me it seems they are refloating some kind of chemical or nuclear attack to ramp things up again.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 29 2023 20:57 utc | 90
Any estimates on how many soldiers Ukraine lost defending Bahkmut? It must be well over 20K.
Posted by: alaric | Apr 29 2023 20:57 utc | 91
Posted by: Longhorn | Apr 29 2023 18:42 utc | 54
------------------------------------------------------------
Mr. Longhorn, as your views are often so contrary to most of the views of the majority of commentors here at MoA, I am inclined to ask you a couple of questions, and I hope you will answer them honestly.
1. Firstly, Knowing what we know now, after all the death and destruction between Russia and Ukraine since the start of the SMO, if you were President Biden would you have considered the offer President Putin presented to Biden and NATO for a peaceful settlement for the issues between Ukraine and Russia that included security concerns for both nations and provided limited anatomy. and human rights, for the Russian speaking people living in the Eastern regions of Ukraine. In other words, was NATO expansion and encirclement of Russia worth the price already paid up to this moment, and the cost that will be paid in the future.
2. Secondly, if a comparable number of nations with comparable military and technical abilities (such as nuclear weapons) were to advance towards the US and Europe, constantly encircling, even after numerous request and warnings over many years by the leaderships of the US and EU leader to cease and desist, would the US/EU alliance be justified to take military action if necessary?
The questions are basic to the positions taken by most people on this site, and your answers are important (at least to me) to try to understand where you are coming from when you comment on MoA.
Are we disagreeing about basic fundamental issues about different world views or are we just disagreeing about basis military tactics or the character and fitness of President Putin as a leader.
Posted by: Ed | Apr 29 2023 21:00 utc | 92
Posted by: young | Apr 29 2023 18:35 utc | 52
A good read, thanks for posting that.
In regards the Russian use of cauldrons, and even just its larger numbers of artillery and other long range forms of hardware that give them an advantage, I think there's something that goes grossly under reported with that, namely the elimination of the Ukrainian military's heavier equipment.
The West has a stated policy of "delivering whatever it takes", and Zelenskyy has a policy of "fighting to the last Ukrainian" (other than him), but the cold equations that are clear to anyone who cares to look is that while, yes, lots of Ukrainian men remain available for conscription, the Russian military has gained an extreme advantage in terms of hardware.
Ukrainian tanks, and other tracked vehicles, are known to be in very limited numbers, and it's known that no significant additions will be made to that number for over a year. Russia has suffered losses, yes, but since it had a very large number of mothballed units in serviceable condition to draw on, excellent repair facilities, stockpiles of spare parts, and a thriving industrial base to produce more, it has gained an enormous advantage there, and the same goes for artillery pieces, mortars, and air defense units.
If we looked at the battle on the ground as strictly an infantry affair, while giving a numerical equivalent of infantry to hardware like tanks, then, roughly speaking, Ukraine has less than a quarter of the fighting force it started with (even after an unending conscription), while Russia's fighting force has grown by leaps and bounds.
Russia would never say it, but as their forces sit prepared for the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the motto of "Come get some"* is applicable.
I have no crystal ball, neither does Russia or Ukraine, but I envision Russia making sure to keep bleeding the AFU along the lines of contact, compelling them to either attack in force as they promised, or be exposed as a hollow shell. Like rats leaving a sinking ship, the media would at that point abandon the Zelenskyy regime. I don't think Zelenskyy can afford to have his army wait months upon months for new hardware, imo he has until the middle of fall to have delivered a large scale assault that had a measurable, lasting, success.
* https://youtu.be/kMr24DqceEI
Trivia: The witch in that video is the lovely Patrica Tallman, who got her start doing stunt work, and some bit parts, before playing Lyta the telepath on Babylon 5.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Apr 29 2023 21:09 utc | 93
Posted by: Longhorn | Apr 29 2023 18:45 utc | 57
Clearly you don't understand modern trench warfare or urban combat against dug-in and fortified opponents with vast backing from powerful outside interests. Also, please remind us how much success the USA has had in its military adventures against far weaker foes, but using far harsher tactics (heavy air strikes in civilian areas for one). Last time I checked the USA took 20 years to lose Afghanistan. Like many Americans you have zero ability to delay gratification. I'd honestly be surprised if you have developed mirror self-recognition yet.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 29 2023 21:11 utc | 94
Declan Hayes states it simply:
"As long as Anglo-American war profiteers continue to enjoy their safe havens in Western Europe and the U.S., we will never see an end to their crimes."
"..russia went into syria for no reason at all other than to exercise their military. .."
Posted by: trill | Apr 29 2023 19:21 utc | 68
An idiotic opinion, suggesting you don't have a comprehensive view of events.
Posted by: Ново З | Apr 29 2023 21:23 utc | 96
Posted by: young | Apr 29 2023 18:35 utc | 52
Come on, young! Nothing about nukes, end of civilisation, extinction of the human race, the four horsemen, armageddon, lengthy bible quotes? Maybe someone captured your identity to depict you as a sane person? Or your entertainment value fell victim to a successful psychotherapy? Hoping for future apocalyptical visionariness,
Moses
Posted by: Moses | Apr 29 2023 21:24 utc | 97
So any Tips Gow to deal with it all. 6 cap song medals and all I know now is it’s all been a lie.
Posted by: Scot1and | Apr 29 2023 17:04 utc | 13
1. Take comfort in the sure knowledge that most polities throughout human history have stunk to high heaven and most people in such polities don't realize it until later in life if at all. Hard truth but not entirely unprecedented truth.
2. Whilst Sauron and Saruman were war-gaming in super-4D causing battles between large armies whose outcome, they thought, would determine the future destiny of their world, the humble, decent little hobbits Frodo and Sam, hairy feet and beer bellies and all, plodded their weary way through all the domains of the Great and brought the whole evil house of cards, knit together with spells of Materialist Black Magik, down. It's a very good story.
And true. Goodness doesn't proclaim itself and indeed is often invisible. We all take simple goodness for granted, for example marvels like sunny days, a hearty breakfast, love of friends and family, the sweetness of rain, the blessing of flowers - so very many such things, a truly infinite number which each of us gets to experience during our brief passage here. Our duty is to ensure we appreciate and nurture them rather than turning away or allowing the Bad Guys to distract us from such ordinary sacred Realities.
help me figure out a path towards peace in the next few months given these war aims ?
Posted by: Exile | Apr 29 2023 16:54 utc | 3
Zelensky, a dull tool, started a war, funded and desired by the District of Corruption, Washington, USA.
So the hope that the war will end in a few months depends solely on American Politicians.
Both Russia and China (now) want the Ukraine war to drag on to sap U.S.armaments and willpower.
Of course, Russian could nuke Kiev and the war would be over. But that would not serve Russia in securing her borders with the gaggle of Eastern Monkies wanting to continue to "Hatfield and McCoy" Eastern Europe.
Caligula Biden says $4.1 Trillion is not enough to add to the U.S. Debt pile (Federal government debt only) even though they cannot pay the $800 Billion interest on the existing $32 Billion debt.
Mathematics says the Ukraine war will stop when the U.S. cannot pay interest on her debt from the tax receipts from trans make-up, KY jelly, and condoms from the only manufacturing industries left in America.
Posted by: kupkee | Apr 29 2023 21:40 utc | 99
Exile @ 3:
Over the next few months the current intense scale of fighting (or rather, Russia's shooting gallery aspect of it) may die down, and NATO and Ukraine may start talking about negotiations (but only on their terms). The war will become a low-grade series of skirmishes between sides (or even between factions within the AFU, or between parts of the AFU and foreign units), a battle or two, and increasing resort by Kiev to infiltrating Russian territory, bombing attacks on Russian civilians and targeted assassinations.
Poland and Ukraine may make further moves towards a de facto union of Poland and northwest Ukraine. Alarm bells may start ringing in Lithuania as realisation dawns that its capital Vilnius might be in Poland's target sights. Who would help Lithuania and guarantee Vilnius's security as a Lithuanian city? One country could but on conditions that Vilnius might find onerous, even impossible to meet. Goodbye to an independent and sovereign Lithuania then, and watch Latvia and Estonia start panicking at the possibility at being next on line to be hacked to bits by Poland, and that being EU / NATO members will not save them one little jot. Other countries in central and eastern Europe may start having similar qualms about Poland's plans for them.
Russia may get its wish about pushing back NATO borders sooner than it realises ... how soon though, is the issue.
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Apr 29 2023 21:41 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Yesterday Putin said Russia is no longer following the rules of the West. The Ukraine war has changed everything.
Video from St Petersburg Russia in English https://twitter.com/AbrahamStein8/status/1652354446997835778?s=20
Posted by: Dave Oneil | Apr 29 2023 16:51 utc | 1