The Musk rocket: TH;DF : Too Heavy; Didn’t Fly
Too bad we don’t have Gordog to explain what failed, but he predicted it. With 33 single point of failure engines, it was a very low probability of success.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 20 2023 15:50 utc | 3

Comets bring bad luck
There is much speculation about the celestial event above Kiev last night at 21:57. Ukrainians claimed that it was a NASA research satellite, evidently RHESSI, which was scheduled to enter the Earth’s atmosphere on Wednesday. We now know it was not RHESSI.

NASA Retired Solar Energy Imager Spacecraft to Reenter Atmosphere – April 20, 2023
NASA’s retired Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) spacecraft re-entered Earth’s atmosphere at 8:21 p.m. EST on Wednesday, April 19, almost 21 years after its launch. From 2002 to its decommissioning in 2018, RHESSI observed solar flares from its low-Earth orbit, helping scientists understand the underlying physics of how such powerful bursts of energy are created.
The Department of Defense confirmed that the 660-pound spacecraft re-entered the atmosphere over the Sahara Desert region, at approximately 26 degrees longitude and 21.3 degrees latitude. NASA expected most of the spacecraft to burn up as it traveled through the atmosphere, but for some components to survive re-entry.

I do not think the object was a satellite, but a meteor. It caused a bolide, a flash of light brighter than the full moon. The dashcam video are very similar to the ones of the Chelyabinsk bolide of 2013. (My playlist)
Although the event has nothing to do with the war, it may effect its outcome. In medieval times comets were seen as harbingers of catastrophes and bad luck. Maybe religious people will see the Kiev Meteor as an omen and a warning. Something perhaps related to the Bandera worshippers attack on the Orthodox Christian Church?

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 20 2023 16:10 utc | 5

It is 420 day here in the states, where we celebrate the usage of “Lucky Strike Green”.
Smoke ’em if you got ’em.

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Apr 20 2023 16:18 utc | 7

@6, Petrie Krohn, ala the red comet in Game of Thrones?

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Apr 20 2023 17:11 utc | 9

In the last half of their most recent discussion, Hudson and Desai exchange views on how the dedollarized international system might function that IMO is very useful of which the following is only a small part:

MICHAEL HUDSON: Well I think you’re quite right about capital controls.
When I went to work in international finance in the 1960s, there were dual exchange rates. The IMF every month would publish the exchange rate for normal trade in goods and services, and a different exchange rate for capital transactions, for debt and investments.
So you had two exchange rates. And that’s because there were capital controls.
The United States, via the IMF, got rid of capital controls so that other countries could not protect themselves. Only the United States could protect itself. That’s the double standard.
Also, as we discussed before, Keynes wanted to solve this by something that is very interesting that the US fought like anything not to accept.
Keynes said, “How do you make an international financial system that is not going to be dominated by the strongest currency, by one currency swamping the others? In other words, how do we avoid the disaster and world depression that the United States has brought on?”
He said, “If one country continues to run a balance of payment surplus and has enormous claims on other countries, and other countries accumulate a deficit, we can’t let them just be painted into a corner or we’re going to be back to the position of Germany and France in the 1920s.”
The country that has the major currency has it because it’s refusing to import from other countries. It’s refusing to help create an international, equitable world order, and so the dominant currency’s claims will be written down.
Well of course the United States knew that Keynes was talking about the dollar that was going to grow.
But just imagine today if China could say, — We thought about the discussions that took place at the end of World War II shaping how the world financial system developed and, yes, I know that the US and NATO say, — Well China’s going to dominate the whole area and end up being another America.
Well, China can say, — We’re in agreement with Keynes’s principle. If we really get so many export surpluses and so many claims on the rest of the country that they can’t pay, of course we’re going to write it down in order to maintain stability.
Imagine if the United States had done this in 1945 and accepted what Keynes did. Imagine how the whole world’s development would have been different for the last 75 years.
That, I think, would be a great ploy by China.

The title of their discussion doesn’t reflect its actual contents, but if you haven’t read the transcript or listed to the podcast, it’s well worth it as what’s discussed you won’t see or hear anywhere else.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 20 2023 17:27 utc | 11

@ Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 20 2023 16:11 utc | 7
I watched the video replay.
5 of 28 rocket motors did not work. That is an 18% reduction in power. From the video, it was obvious that the pattern for the failed motors wasn’t symmetrical. Meaning unequal thrust, and additional guidance needed. In the 3 hr run up (I skipped most of it) I did catch a comment that the motors can pivot somewhat, using them for directional control as well as thrust. So software was trying to steer an unbalanced array of thrust. Despite that, all was good until…
Max Q. Maximum aerodynamic forces as it went through the sound barrier. To me it looked like it never successfully got into supersonic flight, meaning the forces stayed at a maximum for longer than anticipated. This is also a time of max drag, so less thrust, more drag, lots of vibration, control loops unbalanced…
Caused spiraling out of control, (sometimes pointing to the ground) and hence the destruct signal.

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Apr 20 2023 17:37 utc | 13

Many thanks, karlof1. I know a number of people who still believe that JFK jr. would be one of the good guys. Good to know, and good to have the quotes.

Posted by: Konami | Apr 20 2023 17:59 utc | 15

Yesterday, Putin held a meeting with the government that covered a very wide range of topics beginning with things occurring within the New Regions. I suggest for those interested to plug the URL into your favorite translation device, pour a beverage, and read–even the Kamchatka volcano’s discussed. Perhaps of even greater interest is today’s meeting of the Council for the Development of Local Self-Government, which is another very long two hour discussion where much can be learned about Russia’s internal condition, where of course there’s always room for improvement.
Today, Lavrov’s in Cuba. Yesterday he was in Nicaragua and held a presser where he expanded on his remarks made in Caracas:

The parliaments and political parties of our countries are cooperating. Recently, at the initiative of Russia, an international conference was held – the first meeting of the international organizing committee of the Forum of Supporters of the Struggle against Modern Practices of Neocolonialism. It was attended by the party leaders of Nicaragua. In the autumn, the State Duma has scheduled to hold the first inter-parliamentary conference “Russia-Latin America”. Nicaraguan parliamentarians will definitely take part in it. Today we have received such assurances.
We highly appreciate our Nicaraguan friends’ active assistance in strengthening relations between the Russian Federation and integration structures in the region, primarily CELAC and CAIS. The activities of these organizations actively contribute to Latin America becoming an effective, influential center of the emerging multipolar world order.
Multipolarity is the imperative of the times, an objective historical process. There is no way to stop it. Although the “collective West”, rallied under the umbrella of American “exceptionalism”, is trying to do this. Attempts to assert their hegemony, to dictate to everyone and everything anywhere in the world are observed both in what is happening around Ukraine and in NATO’s claims to the role of a global guarantor of security, including in the Asia-Pacific and a number of other regions of the world.
Together with Nicaragua and our other like-minded people, we will actively oppose this, draw attention to the inadmissibility of such behavior in the modern world, including within the framework of the Group of Friends in Defense of the UN Charter operating in New York, the very principles that the “collective West” grossly violates.

The Forum mentioned in the first cited paragraph was chaired by Dmitri Medvedev and is tailored to mesh with the joint initiatives of China and Russia.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 20 2023 18:38 utc | 17

President Steinmeier’s coming to Canada from April 23 to 26 with his wife. They will visit Ottawa, Ontario, Vancouver, BC, and Yellowknife and Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories. Topics to address include democracies, economies, environment and Ukraine. Supposedly.

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Apr 20 2023 18:59 utc | 19

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 20 2023 16:50 utc | 9
Despite the protests and calls for resignation wherever he goes in France,thisis Macron today:
“I am for democracy, that’s why I participated in the elections. But I will not resign. I assure you, this will not happen. We will have to wait until 2027,” the president said in a video broadcast by BFMTV.

Posted by: JB | Apr 20 2023 19:37 utc | 21

Norwegian #4
There was no problem with the rocket being overweight. It obviously had enough thrust to lift off fully loaded. The rocket became lighter as it consumed propellent.
The multitude of engines should not present a risk of single point of failure. Multiple engines results in redundancy. The failure of one or two engines would not jeopardize the launch. The Raptor engine is well tested and proven in many previous launches. It was unlikely that even one engine would fail. The failure of six or more engines independently was extremely improbable to almost impossible.
I’ll wait for the results of an investigation before offering an opinion. .

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Apr 20 2023 19:58 utc | 23

U.S. continues its Lawfare against China
Here is the DOJ indictment against two people for ‘operating an illegal police station in NYC for the CCP’
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-arrested-operating-illegal-overseas-police-station-chinese-government
1. The only activity they call it is the doxing of one dissident. There is no mention of an attempt to detain anyone.
2. The search warrant found phones, not jail cells or guns.
When someone says they are ‘operating a police station’, the first thing I think of is grabbing someone off the street and locking them in a room. The use of this phrase is designed to create an emotional response but is entirely false.

Posted by: Christian Chuba | Apr 20 2023 20:17 utc | 25

@Elmer Fudd | Apr 20 2023 19:58 utc | 23

The failure of six or more engines independently was extremely improbable to almost impossible.

It happened.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 20 2023 20:21 utc | 27

In medieval times comets were seen as harbingers of catastrophes and bad luck.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 20 2023 16:10 utc | 6
so were plagues.
so was the weather.
the most common practice of fortune-telling in the West today is called ‘belomancy’: shoot at stuff and see what happens. (from wiki):

Belomancy, also bolomancy, is the ancient art of divination by use of arrows. The word is built upon Ancient Greek: βέλος, romanized: belos, lit. ’arrow, dart’, and μαντεία, manteia, ‘divination’. Belomancy was anciently practised at least by Babylonians, Greeks, Arabs and Scythians.

in speech, belomancy means slander, which means throwing as much of any and all kinds of shit imaginable up against the wall, and see what sticks. e.g., file criminal charges against the enemy for kidnapping children. war balloons, etc., etc.
what one slings around in hurling accusations against the enemy largely consists of self-projection, so in the west, there is a cloaca straight from hell’s filthiest outhouse in the hearts of almost every western leader. they reach their hand in, grab something, and hurl. E.g., since the west has its Gitmos, China *must* have its torture camps…and enter the Uighurs.
and policy-wise, the answer is usually, “Well, what if we shoot at it? bomb it?”

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Apr 20 2023 20:41 utc | 29

The “New Axis of Evil”: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, N. Korea, Cuba, Venezuela and most of Latin America, including Mexico and Honduras, Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and possibly Turkey, Pakistan. I’m sure I left some out. I think that Antarctica is still neutral. That’s a lot of enemies for anyone.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Apr 20 2023 21:58 utc | 31

Today’s Headline —
“EU state bans WW2 victory celebration
Marking the triumph over Nazi Germany would ‘undermine our values,’ Latvian lawmakers said”
Nothing as startling as truth.
(yes, I’m pro-horrible-tsunami disaster but I can explain that).

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Apr 20 2023 22:15 utc | 33

@34, Dingo, it’s obviously them. How could it possibly be US? Like your poems. Been working on an economic paper. Looks like it will be long. Encompassing all the economics of the world and how they interconnect. I’d use chatgpt if I thought it was factual. You know, gigo. Otherwise, I’ve heard about the “Chinese police stations” here in the belly of the beast for some time. Never thought it was worthy of comment. Cheers everyone!

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Apr 20 2023 22:39 utc | 35

A little trivia: Not sure if any of you like the Alan Parsons Project, but he was the sound engineer on Pink Floyd, “Dark Side of the Moon”, and assistant engineer on The Beatles, “Abbey Road”. Cheers!

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Apr 20 2023 22:55 utc | 37

Sudan
Hemeti [UAE? Russia?] vs Burhan [Egypt]
Haftar’s ‘support’ for Sudan’s RSF reveals new alliance with Libyan commander
WSJ reports Libyan commander sent Hemeti’s paramilitary one plane full of military supplies, with sources telling MEE at least one more has departed
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/sudan-libya-haftar-rsf-support-reveals-new-alliance

Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 21 2023 0:28 utc | 39

I’d like to beg your indulgence for some speculation.
May is going to get hot on another front. I don’t see Erdogan going down without a fight. He’s too feisty, brass balled and wily. He either wins the elections in Turkey outright, or if he loses in a close one, declares fraud due to Foreign influence and shitfuckery.
He’ll have plausibility on his side given the history of the CIA in Georgia and Syria.
The US will react and provoke another crisis. Buckle up!

Posted by: Chris | Apr 21 2023 0:38 utc | 41

Elmer Fudd @23

The Raptor engine is well tested and proven in many previous launches. It was unlikely that even one engine would fail. The failure of six or more engines independently was extremely improbable to almost impossible.

The original Raptor 1 engine suffered a failure on the SN9 test launch, resulting in a spectacular green flame as the engine’s copper components burned. The same issue occurred in later ground tests of the Raptor 2 engine, which had not been flight tested before today’s launch.
The Raptor operates on a ‘staged combustion’ cycle that the US was slow to master. The first US staged combustion engine flew on the Space Shuttle in 1981 while the USSR had been flying them for 20 years by that point. The Raptor also operates on the bleeding edge in terms of pressure and cooling capacity, with most early Raptor 2s melting on the test stand from inadequate cooling. The Raptor 2s for today’s flight were limited to 90% thrust as a result.
It seems that 3 engines failed within the first 15 seconds (possibly resulting in the ‘power slide’ observed as it lifted off the pad) followed by 2 more and a 6th that dropped out and re-lit. Stage separation was supposed to take place at 2min 49sec at an altitude of 65km but Starship’s electronic brain found itself much lower and slower as that point in the flight due to the engine failures, reaching only ~40km before turning somersaults and being destroyed by flight controllers.
It’s likely that Starship’s brain was unabled to cope with the myriad of ‘off-nominal’ conditions at stage separation and went haywire, possibly commanding the booster to ‘flip’ in order to return to earth with the second stage still attached!

Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Apr 21 2023 1:44 utc | 43

Why the Saudis have called off their Israeli wedding
https://electronicintifada.net/content/why-saudis-have-called-their-israeli-wedding/37561

Posted by: Menz | Apr 21 2023 3:05 utc | 45

@40 Petri Krohn | Apr 21 2023 0:32 utc
Thank you for that link. The part of the discussion I’ve been listening to is amazing.
At around 19:45, Mercouris relates how, uniquely among nations, the USA has its founding document as part of its constitution, rather than as two separate events or documents. What this means is that if you tamper with the constitution too much – e.g. destroy the First Amendment – then it’s effectually, and perhaps even juridically, not the same country anymore.
This is true viscerally for its inhabitants also, I would say, and probably still as a majority sentiment. If those rights go, the USA doesn’t exist anymore, and rather like the Donbass in Ukraine, the inhabitants are no longer bound to its regime.
Mike Adams then joins in to note that in Texas where he is, he talks with serious people who at the state level are very seriously preparing for the possibility of a USSR-style breakup of the USA, and if this should happen, then Texas is preparing to become its own nation. Other states in the Union are also thinking in these terms, he says, and I can believe it.
So that’s 10-15 minutes or so that’s worth anyone’s time to check out, I suggest.

Posted by: Grieved | Apr 21 2023 3:34 utc | 47

S.P. Korolev # 43 & #42.
Both of you make excellent points. Korolev demonstrates knowledge of rocket engine design. However; those engines have been subjected to extensive testing and proven themselves on the smaller Space X rockets. Something unique to the Starship booster or more likely to this flight caused the multiple failures of already proven rocket engines. One possibility might be moisture in the propellent which then froze to clog coolant passages.

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Apr 21 2023 4:15 utc | 49

I have to eat more crow.
The Merlin engine uses Kerosene rather than Methane for fuel. Liquid Methane is a cryogenic liquid similar to liquid Oxygen but it isn’t deep cryogenic like Liquid Hydrogen. The point that the engines have been extensively tested remains. Multiple failures suggest problems with the LOX or Liquid Methane feed system.

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Apr 21 2023 4:25 utc | 51

I’ll just add to my comment above that what Mike Adams also was saying was that an economic collapse for the US is already being considered in states like Texas, in that they would move if the dollar is no longer viable to have a state economy brought into play – as an interim to whatever comes next.
I actually didn’t find the discussion of what young people were prepared for or not in terms of industrial ability very fair — it hasn’t been the young people who took away the industrial backbone of the country or the educational and vocational opportunities. Nor are they to be blamed for not wanting to be in the army as it currently functions. We had that way back at the bloody stages of Vietnam madness.
But overall, very good discussion.

Posted by: juliania | Apr 21 2023 5:06 utc | 53

As a kid at school
Whenever someone tripped in the schoolyard
or fell walking to class.
Some kids showed concern, some just moved along,
and some laughed.
Noticing the one’s who laughed, made me realize the capacity
for cruelty that humans possess.

Posted by: Dingo | Apr 21 2023 5:45 utc | 55

https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/kanada-millionen-goldraub-am-flughafen-von-toronto-a-0a13bcce-1757-4ae6-b7bc-7a1d626dcbe0
The article does not mention the provenance of the gold.
Could it be the treasures from confiscated Orthodox Church property in Ukraine?

Posted by: willie | Apr 21 2023 6:34 utc | 57

A german news website:
https://www.rnd.de/politik/ukraine-krieg-kiew-meldet-gegenoffensive-im-donbass-in-vier-richtungen-ZN3PB4QOTRGKZBUO36BROENSGE.html
The Ukrainian armed forces have apparently launched a counteroffensive in the Donbass. According to Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar, the attacks are to be launched in four directions. The Ukrainian army is also currently conducting “active offensive operations” in Bachmut, she said Wednesday evening. Other targets of offensive operations are the small towns of Lyman, Avdiivka and Marjinka in the Donbass, she added.
Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
Any comments?

Posted by: br64 | Apr 21 2023 7:29 utc | 59

#30 Piotr Berman
2 posts yesterday about African Socialist Peoples Party — Uhuru in UKR thread, mine I stated best moved here.
Hey, it worked so well to fill up Guantanamo, offer up large sums of money for terrorists and … And so the FBI offers up $10 million to implicate some Russian and the African Socialist Peoples Party. After the big FBI raid in Oakland and St. Petersburg, right in the middle of a training session for doulas – midwives.
https://www.theburningspear.com/2023/03/desperate-us-govt-putting-up-10million-reward-for-info-in-attack-on-Uhuru-Movement-exposes-that-they-aint-got-nothing
Talking about the simulataneous raids with flashbang grenades, automatic weapons and drones.
https://www.theburningspear.com/2022/08/Watch-FBI-attacks-Uhuru-Movement-on-July-29-2022-Hands-Off-Uhuru
The gloves are going to be coming off the FBI even more so in the future. VPNs might be the next thing made illegal in the usOfa.

Posted by: paxmark1 | Apr 21 2023 7:34 utc | 61

59, from TG vids , the big offensive was more a general probe that was mercilessly destroyed as it came into range. arty duels etc ongoing , but lots of vids of the usual exploding machines and groups of soldiers moving in open fields eating well placed artillery hits. considering my post above , wagner shuts bakhmut supply road, id say just desperation and if there was reserves they would be going there to help unblock the forces now trapped. but who knows.

Posted by: hankster | Apr 21 2023 8:27 utc | 63

Posted by: António Ferrão | Apr 21 2023 9:49 utc | 64
broken link.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro-dollar-status-should-not-be-taken-granted-ecbs-lagarde-2023-04-17/

Posted by: António Ferrão | Apr 21 2023 9:50 utc | 65

Sudan
Hemeti [UAE? Russia?] vs Burhan [Egypt]
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 21 2023 0:28 utc | 39
It is not that simple. Both the army and the RSF were cosying up to Russia and other sources and they have now fallen out big time because Hemedti wanted to be in control. He has taken a page of Zelensky’s notebook by building up a deceptive image beforehand.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/20/the-soft-power-campaign-of-sudans-rsf-leader-hemedti
If we have to choose between the two I would back the Sudanes army anytime over this very ruthless and corrupt warlord.

Posted by: Orage | Apr 21 2023 12:01 utc | 67

What is the mindset of the dogshit that feels the need for tats. So many Australian coppers now have their arms covered in tats. Wannabe tough guys? neanderthal mindset? Some idiot boy came around to see me yesterday. An arrogant piece of shit but a total fuckwit. Troopers dredged up from the dregs of western society.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2023 12:56 utc | 69

In the Week in Review @180, I posted Canadian PM Trudeau’s itinerary for April 20th. It included virtually attending a gathering hosted by US President Biden and talking with Brazil’s President Lula.
No readout from Trudeau on the Lula call. He did post on the Major Economies Forum.
https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1649157570571927552
Lula posted a Tweet on his convo with Trudeau.
https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1649140596618022912
Lots of moving pieces.

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Apr 21 2023 13:18 utc | 71

Posted by: Dingo | Apr 21 2023 5:45 utc | 55
Dingo, here’s a thought from Alan Paton, he of “Cry the Beloved Country” – this from his (I think) remarkable autobiography:
“There is only one way in which one can endure man’s inhumanity to man and that is to try, in one’s own life, to exemplify man’s humanity to man.”
He did that.

Posted by: juliania | Apr 21 2023 13:58 utc | 73

@ walt 56
thanks for the update…. good observations and update. i too am travelling and enjoying the experience..

Posted by: james | Apr 21 2023 14:43 utc | 75

Compared to the New York Times, the Washington Post, or the San Francisco Chronicle, the NY Post is an unpretentious tabloid. But this newspaper also publishes articles others can’t:

Ex-CIA chief spills on how he got spies to write false Hunter Biden laptop letter to ‘help Biden’

The impression I get is that Biden was seen as a safe pair of hands, while Trump was seen as a danger to American hegemony. Well, they got what they wanted: Trump out of the White House, and Biden president. But it’s ironical that Biden has done more to damage US interests than Trump.

Posted by: Passerby | Apr 21 2023 15:28 utc | 77

Roger @ 78. What sort of breakup would you imagine for the US? I’m guessing it would break up along racial/cultural/political lines….regions for Hispanics (New Mexico Texas) BLM regions (Louisiana, Alabama), woke regions (California, Oregon, Washington), redneck regions (Idaho, Montana) etc.

Posted by: dh | Apr 21 2023 15:53 utc | 79

@ Roger | Apr 21 2023 15:36 utc | 78
America has been “Russia in the 1990s” since 1979 at latest–the Volcker interest-hike, followed by “deindustrialization”/”financialization.”
Note how the beneficiary groups and regions sneer at “the Rust Belt”/”Flyover.”

Posted by: John Kennard | Apr 21 2023 15:59 utc | 81

Roger and others thinking the Outlaw US Empire will break up: I agree that its overseas components will eventually become independent; but as with the problems related to secession I’ve written about here previously, the disintegration of the nation into sections would be very difficult to accomplish. A study of the first attempt at secession reveals the multitude of difficulties and the process is far more complex now than then. Just looking into the situation in Charlestown harbor provides one vivid example of the complexity.
IMO, a better solution is reforming the federal government by returning to the initial Confederation with considerable modifications, the main one being the vast diminution of power wielded by the central executive–recall the Articles didn’t have an executive–which is where all the corruption and abuse of power within the current system’s located.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 21 2023 16:30 utc | 83

Posted by: dh | Apr 21 2023 15:53 utc | 79
Chuck Palahnuik wrote a book, Adjustment Day. USA is split into divided states: “Blacktopia,” “Gaysia,” and “Caucasia.”
It’s an okay read. It kind of falls apart at the end, but the ideas are interesting.
Posted by: John Kennard | Apr 21 2023 15:59 utc | 81
Deindustrialization. Yeah. The U.S.A. used to make stuff. I believe in autarky!

Posted by: lex talionis | Apr 21 2023 16:46 utc | 85

@83 karlof1 | Apr 21 2023 16:30 utc et al
As you know, but for the general record:
The only lawful way for the Union to dissolve in my opinion is by amendment to the Constitution, and the most likely way for this to happen will be through a convention of the states.
A constitutional convention would have the lawful power either to dissolve the Union – which is the ultimate threat that quickens the mind – or, much more likely, to limit the federal apparatus in all ways it could craft into amendment form. There would be plenty of skilled legal drafters available, sitting on top of years of well considered grievance.
It will take 34 states in agreement to convene the convention, and so far 19 state legislatures are ready:
Progress Map: States that have passed the Convention of States Article V application
~~
It will take, presumably, further abuse from the federal apparatus for more states to join. The nation, in my view, is essentially frozen until this happens. The beatings will simply have to continue until morale improves /s
But if the USA breaks, it will break into states rather than through popular uprising, I think – or at least, I hope. The states are the natural fault lines of the Union – and actually a much softer landing than what usually happens when a monolithic nation devolves into chaos and ungovernability.
I can imagine massive unrest throughout the country followed by the equivalent of martial law from the federal power. But with a suspension of the Constitution necessary for this to occur, would the states then accept this, or would they finally summon the courage to act on behalf of their citizens? This is the crucial question, I suppose.
If Texas really were able to create a gold-backed currency, I can only imagine the wealth that would flow to that state for sanctuary, from the country and the world. Having a viable alternative as an example to follow is often the greatest prerogative for change. How many states would look at Texas, in such a case, and not begin to dream?

Posted by: Grieved | Apr 21 2023 16:53 utc | 87

In response to myself wanting say more
psychohistorian | Apr 21 2023 17:00 utc | 87
I see a return to economic geography by sovereign nations. Stop being ripped off by empire for your raw materials and develop your own capabilities to process the raw materials to the “right level” for export.
I don’t have a link but have read about China fostering this mentality and economic geography review by sovereign countries to best serve their people.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 21 2023 17:06 utc | 89

Richard Wolff lays bare the scam of Treasuries:
Ask Prof Wolff: How Treasury Bonds Help Corporations and the Rich

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Apr 21 2023 17:40 utc | 91

@ Grieved | Apr 21 2023 16:53 utc | 88
I’ve thought about this before, since like you and Putin I am legalistically- and above all Constitutionally-minded, and concluded that the present regime would game a Convention to give it even greater advantage over the populace.
I therefore worked out a list of likely reform Amendments, to submit to Congress and hold their feet to the fire until they submitted them to the States, but that grew not so long but complex that I finally settled on one to serve as “icebreaker,” one version of which might read
“This Constitution may be amended by State referenda in two-thirds of the States each approved by two-thirds of that State’s eligible voters.”
Wouldn’t something like that be a glorious fight?
See
http://jdkabc.blogspot.com/2012/05/beyond-plutocracy-and-its-two.html
for a sort of blog-history of what passed for my thinking.
(Note the OWS-era datings.)

Posted by: John Kennard | Apr 21 2023 20:22 utc | 93

Kinda disappointing about RFKjr being Pro-Ukraine. Mind you, no big surprise, the last time I believed a president was Obama, and boy was I wrong about that one.
At this point, I’d vote for a third party featuring Hunter Biden and Donald Trump jr as co-presidents. What difference would it make ?

Posted by: Featherless | Apr 21 2023 22:01 utc | 95

All this talk about the breakup of the USA is annoying, not least of all because it rests on two entirely untenable assumptions:
1. That states are and would continue to be viable integal units. Okay, Vermont maybe. But the eastern parts of Washington state and Oregon would rather be part if Idaho than remain with their woke coastal counties. My state, Colorado, divides into three parts: from west to east a southern extension of Montana, a woke sliver hugging the eastern Rockies foothills, and a western extension of Kansas.
2. That the the hated woke parts would be able to form viable entities. Nope, you’d have coastal slivers, the the sliver from Fort Collins to Albuquerque, and Chicagoland. None if these areas can provide for their own food. Islands like Jackson MS would of necessity be absorbed into conservative entities.
No, in the event of chaos, the conservative forces would triumph nationwide, and probably after some spectacular bloodletting—after all, that’s the side with the guns.

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 21 2023 22:31 utc | 97

But if the USA breaks, it will break into states rather than through popular uprising, I think – or at least, I hope. The states are the natural fault lines of the Union – and actually a much softer landing than what usually happens when a monolithic nation devolves into chaos and ungovernability.
Posted by: Grieved | Apr 21 2023 16:53 utc | 88
Very good point. It is so obvious that it is rarely pointed out.
I don’t think you will get 30+ States to agree on anything in a convention unless it’s to break the Union in which case things will be so bad that it almost won’t matter.
However, I think the simplest place to start is to ensure by whatever constitutional means possible that each State is sovereignt and therefore has the right to break away from the Union agreement at any time for any reason. This should already be the case in principle; surrendering that sovereignty – assuming that is what has happened long ago – was an error in both principle and practice.
Take the Russia-China non-alliance alliance: neither signs away their sovereignty to a larger Union entity rather each retains their own independent sovereignty. It seems that their other allies in SCO and BRICS follow the same template. The States should enjoy sovereignty even within the Union – that is where it all went wrong and that is what has to be fixed. I think you (grieved) have identified the key fault line in the system which is also the saving grace if invoked fortuitously and resolutely.
Hopefully, in any post-current-Union future, a better way of doing it could be fashioned, but again I would suggest that holding to the sovereignty principle would go a long way to ensuring things end up in a better configuration than the republic’s badly designed first try, though some things it got right (like the First and Second Amendments etc.).
In any case, if there is no constitutional way or, more likely, if there are procedural laws on the books seemingly prohibiting it, in Common Law one or more States must make a Common Law Claim of Right to unilaterally withdraw from the agreement without any other States or Federal entities being involved.
They could qualify this by something reasonable in Law such as:
whereas in the event the State has proof that the United States has broken the terms of the original Union agreement or
whereas the State has verifiable proof that the Federal Union has treated the State in a fraudulent manner, either by misleading the State as to key policies effecting it or misappropriating funds or any sort of obvious fraud which causes harm to our State’s citizens, thereby following the Maxim ‘fraud vitiates everything,’ or
whereas 65% or more of our citizens vote in a referendum to that effect,
then,
following established principles in both Common and Contract Law,
Our State(s) claims the right to declare the Agreement which governed our participation in the United States Federation null and void and
reclaim our full sovereignty and independence as per the original founding charter of our State.
Something like that.
To deny this Claim of Right the Federal Union would have to show that citizens in State or States X have no remedy even when clearly harmed. That violates basic principles of Law.
But SCOTUS is Federal and should not have sole jurisdiction in this matter.
This brings us back to: A State has to have the right to claim and then exercise sovereignty otherwise the notion of State is rendered meaningless. (Germany faces this same situation, I believe.) That principle is the first brick to prize loose from the prison wall. It might be a cornerstone, removing which will cause the entire fraudulent edifice to crumble.
Doing so will also move the focus away from what list people will be wrangling over to the fundamental, bedrock issue that the Founding Fathers got wrong. The whole debate and discussion will be about what constitutes true sovereignty, what Law really matters and whether or not a free people has both the right and the gumption to claim such sovereignty.

Posted by: Scorpion | Apr 21 2023 23:29 utc | 99