Biden Prepares To Give Up On Ukraine
The much ballyhooed Ukrainian 'counteroffensive' is destined to fail its purpose of severing Russia's supply line to Crimea and to liberate 'occupied territory'. The Biden administration has finally recognized this and is out to lower expectations and to preemptively blame everyone but itself.
The first to be briefed was Politico:
Biden’s team fears the aftermath of a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive
Behind closed doors, the administration worries about what Ukraine can accomplish.
The New York Times joined in:
Ukraine’s Spring Offensive Comes With Immense Stakes for Future of the War
Without a decisive victory, Western support for Ukraine could weaken, and Kyiv could come under increasing pressure to enter serious peace talks to end or freeze the conflict.
From the Politico piece:
Publicly, President Joe Biden’s team has offered unwavering support for Ukraine, pledging to load it up with weapons and economic aid for “as long as it takes.” But, if the impending fighting season yields limited gains, administration officials have expressed privately they fear being faced with a two-headed monster attacking it from the hawkish and dovish ends of the spectrum.One side will say that Ukraine’s advances would’ve worked had the administration given Kyiv everything it asked for, namely longer-range missiles, fighter jets and more air defenses. The other side, administration officials worry, will claim Ukraine’s shortcoming proves it can’t force Russia out of its territory completely.
That doesn’t even account for the reaction of America’s allies, mainly in Europe, who may see a peace negotiation between Ukraine and Russia as a more attractive option if Kyiv can’t prove victory is around the corner.
The Times offers less drama:
While Ukrainian officials have said their goal is to break through dug-in Russian defenses and create a widespread collapse in Russia’s army, American officials have assessed that it is unlikely the offensive will result in a dramatic shift in momentum in Ukraine’s favor.Ukraine’s military faces many challenges — one reason that a stalemate remains the most likely outcome. Fighting in Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine this winter has drained ammunition reserves and led to heavy casualties in some experienced units.
Back to Politico which draws the bigger picture. If Ukraine proves incapable of doing what the Pentagon had planned for it it will be pushed into a 'ceasefire' which is hoped to become a permanent solution. The Biden administration will then leave the Ukraine issue behind and fixate on its next big target - China:
Biden and his top aides have publicly stressed that Zelenskyy should only begin peace talks when he is ready. But Washington has also communicated to Kyiv some political realities: at some point, especially with Republicans in control of the House of Representatives, the pace of U.S. aid will likely slow. Officials in Washington, though not pressing Kyiv, have begun preparing for what those conversations could look like and understand it may be a tough political sell at home for Zelenskyy.“If Ukraine can’t gain dramatically on the battlefield, the question inevitably arises as to whether it is time for a negotiated stop to the fighting,” said Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. “It’s expensive, we’re running low on munitions, we’ve got other contingencies around the world to prepare for.”
“It’s legitimate to ask all these questions without compromising Ukraine’s goals. It’s simply a question of means,” Haass said.
Neither Ukraine nor the supporting NATO countries have the means to extend the war. The original, archived Politico piece read:
The fighting has taken a toll on the Ukrainians as well. Fourteen months into the conflict, the Ukrainians have suffered staggering losses — around 100,000 dead — with many of their top soldiers either sidelined or exhausted. The troops have also gone through historic amounts of ammunition and weaponry, with even the West’s prodigious output unable to match Zelenskyy’s urgent requests.
The corrected later version replaced 'dead' with 'casualties'. While the first version was a nearly correct but too low count the new version is far off the mark. The total casualties are a multiple of 100,000.
Still - the Biden crew knows that the end is coming:
U.S. officials have also briefed Ukraine on the dangers of overextending its ambitions and spreading its troops too thin — the same warning Biden gave then-Afghan President Ashraf Ghani as the Taliban moved to sweep across the country during the U.S. military withdrawal in 2021.
Zelensky has, like Ashraf Ghani, made enough money from the war and is expected to silently move out. But for now it seems unlikely that he is willing to do so.
The alternative to giving up is for the U.S. to escalate again by putting boots on the ground. But Biden wants to win his reelection fight and any further escalation of the war in Ukraine would likely prevent that.
Posted by b on April 25, 2023 at 11:23 UTC | Permalink
next page »Why would Russia stop until the current government is gone ?
So they can rearm and come back in 5 years.
Posted by: Kiser8 | Apr 25 2023 12:03 utc | 2
I think will not be the defeat in war that will challenge Biden's re-election effort, but the terrible, permanent result of the sanctions applied to the enemies of Ukraine..
Sanctions moved the world from a singular pole world to a multi pole world. Polar sharing reduced the spoils of commerce into half of the spoils for each pole? As a result a retraction in benefit will result to the half that gave up half of the spoils of commerce to the half that became the second pole.
As the economy in the West falls short of the expectation of the governed, the blame for the shortfall will flow to Biden's administration. At this point, I doubt there is much Biden can do about that?
Posted by: snake | Apr 25 2023 12:05 utc | 3
This always was the most likely ending for the Ukrainian drama: NATO losing the grinding war with Russia and throwing in the towel. The real question is what Russia is going to do now. For sure this is the scenario they were prepared for, that has been clear for a year now, but their true intentions are not clear at all. Maybe they will try a political solution with a new, friendlier Ukraine, or maybe they will try to push for a military offensive on the broken ranks of the Ukrainians. However the real problem is not Ukraine itself, which cannot do nothing without an external help, but the so called West: will Russia try a rapprochement with Western Europe, using the peace in Ukraine as a bargaining chip? It could make sense from a geopolitical point of view and I think the Russians are actually open to a number of scenarios.
Posted by: SG | Apr 25 2023 12:15 utc | 4
The US is too invested in Ukraine to "give up on it" The media is pulling the strings on both sides
U.S intelligence says Russia used Tucker Carlson for their propaganda campaign against Ukraine. This clip was cited.
Here https://twitter.com/AbrahamStein8/status/1650835708607709185?s=20
Posted by: Dave Oneil | Apr 25 2023 12:15 utc | 5
That would be the rational choice.
But this is the US we are talking about.
I choose escalate for $100, B.
Maybe a pause for the elections.
Boots on the ground - Polish, Moldavian, Bulgarian, whatever...
This is a 10 year project, at best.
I am impressed by the analysis of that Simplicius fellow.
Posted by: jared | Apr 25 2023 12:19 utc | 6
The Russians won't accept a "cease fire".
What? so the West can regroup and mount offensives next year?
The Russians must go much further now, with Ukraine out of men and machines which has cost much bood and treasure.
The West will squeal the roof off but they started it, Ukraine could have had a deal last March. Now the West reaps what they sow.
Obvious to any with any kind of strategic brain and I am a Westerner.
Posted by: intp1 | Apr 25 2023 12:26 utc | 7
I now see the possibility of Ukr. collapse in that there are reports of the best troops STILL being sent to hold Bakhmut. If they are mostly punisher troops, they can be killed off in the meat grinder or simply get stuck there, while less enthusiastic soldiers face bombing and Russian defenses. Remove the Azov types and the rest may surrender or run away.
I also think the Deep State is more of a mob or group of mobs than anything with a single command. Some of them will push Ukraine towards collapse as a last chance, growing impatient as they want war with China. Regardless of their influence, Afghanistan's collapse did happen. Here we go again.
Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 25 2023 12:27 utc | 8
As that English guy almost said the dawning of sense in DC is not the end or even the beginning of the end but it might be the end of the beginning
Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Apr 25 2023 12:30 utc | 9
Well all info points at an easy victory for the russians.
So lets hope that the russians do not read this. Underestimation of your enemy is a path to defeat. For a year now we have heard that the west do not have anything, can't produce anything and so on. Shells coming in from south korea, cannons and BUK's from Finland?, tanks from Marocco, amunition from Pakistan.....
Everyone who has played any sort of sport know that collecting the victory before the match is the easiest trap to fall in.
Posted by: Paul Norway | Apr 25 2023 12:30 utc | 10
The projected success of the spring counteroffensive rested on the belief that a quick penetration by the AFU behind Russian lines would cause the Russians to panic and run away. That would improve Ukraine's 'bargaining position.' That bit of fantasy has proven too delusional even for the neocons. Now they are stepping back the denial just a tiny bit while the Bidet administration utters weasel words. But wait, they want to walk back from Ukraine to focus on picking a fight with China. Who doesn't want to go to war with the country that sells you most of your consumer items? The US is a nation of village idiots.
Posted by: Mike R | Apr 25 2023 12:31 utc | 11
Biden's Ukraine catastrophe is a distraction from the US Debt Ceiling exhaustion. Or is it the other way 'round?
Posted by: too scents | Apr 25 2023 12:31 utc | 12
Another excellent analysis, thank you.
The only minor disagreement I have is with what the last sentence seems to imply:
"But Biden wants to win his reelection fight and any further escalation of the war in Ukraine would likely prevent that."
My reading of this conclusion is that there is some recognition of reality in the minds of the neocons running U.S. foreign policy, which would lead them to stop doubling down in Ukraine. Certainly there has to be those in the White House and State Department who are capable of understanding that "winning" in Ukraine is out of the question. But I don't see any evidence that there will be protests coming from these quarters, and it is even less likely that the neocons will accept that they have lost the war -- they are ideologues drunk on hubris, who believe their own propaganda and are truly ignorant of the fact that the U.S. military supremacy disappeared decades ago.
I don't think that Biden is capable of calling the shots. He should be seen as a sock puppet, struggling to read the teleprompter scripts and get on and off the stage without shaking hands with invisible persons. It has appeared to me that "Biden", i.e., his handlers, have consistently read from the neocon script, which always ends in the U.S. triumphing over the evil Putin, etc. etc.
I think it is more likely that the green light is being given to Poland to enter the war as the new, improved proxy. I understand that Poland has been training administrators who will be running the show in the new, improved Poland (Galacia). Not sure how warmly they will be received there lol.
Possibly Romanian and U.S. troops will also be sent into Western Ukraine, as the neocons believe that will cause Russia to "back down". 101st Airborne will be dropped into Odessa, which the U.S./NATO will not cede to Russia. I think that is the plan that "Biden" will choose, which will show that the U.S. has saved the day in Ukraine and will get "Biden" back into the White House.
I rather doubt that the Russians will follow this script.
Posted by: Steven Starr | Apr 25 2023 12:36 utc | 13
thanks b…..
the ‘war’ and the results was a foregone conclusion.. biden and zelensky as reps for the military and banking complex, with full unconditional support and backing from the western msm, have succeeded in generating the desired outcome and income….
as for the western press - of course they don’t want any competition, which explains the 24/7 witch hunt on propaganda! all this is very plain to see, if one is not immersed in the constant bullshit.. thanks for your ongoing work on this issue.. i am sorry all the innocent people had to die to support the mil and banking complex
Posted by: james | Apr 25 2023 12:40 utc | 14
The US can walk away and continue to foment and support a Ukie resistance movement that can strike deep in Russia.There are few options for Russia other than winning.
Posted by: Cato the Uncensored | Apr 25 2023 12:41 utc | 15
Ukraine will never have enough people and equipment - the professional military is exhausted, injured or died, - the commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region Melnyk.
https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1650833221549010945
This could be comparable to riding a worn out bearing surface. It will just keep making larger grooves and end up in catastrophic failure.
The cream-de-la-creme of the population has already left or wounded/killed.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 25 2023 12:42 utc | 16
"Zelensky has, like Ashraf Ghani, made enough money from the war and is expected to silently move out. But for now it seems unlikely that he is willing to do so."
Not written by a Russian. It's Hades for Ze.
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Apr 25 2023 12:43 utc | 17
and i don’t see any chance of a peace settlement…. the usa and friends will walk away from it as the usa walked away from afganastan, or they will continue to subject all of europe to the iraq or syria treatment.. that is how losers truly operate..
Posted by: james | Apr 25 2023 12:44 utc | 18
People continually fail in the prognostications because the continually fall into the trap of thinking Washington ultimately act rationally. They won't. They are incapable of rational action. In truth, they are insane....and evil....and desperate....
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Apr 25 2023 12:47 utc | 19
Biden's minders prepare for a move that would optimize their election chances. They don't care of implications for Ukrainians.
Posted by: William Wilson | Apr 25 2023 12:47 utc | 20
Russia would be pleased to reclaim Odessa and a corridor along the Black Sea, protecting Crimea and the "eastern" Oblasts. I could see Lviv/Lvov being offered to the Polish just to further weaken Ukraine to a Kiev based city-state. That Ukraine would be no threat to Russia and no interest to NATO. The few simpering Nazis could fecklessly gripe about lost glory but be a threat to no one. I don't see that this SMO is really a big strain on Russia and that they will be happy for slow talks as the submission hold tightens. Those maximalist stances won't seem so absurd as Ukraine faces utter collapse and defeat
Posted by: scottindallas | Apr 25 2023 12:49 utc | 21
All true, but is it a coincidence that Tucker Carlson got fired a day before Biden announced he would run for Prez? Is Tucker being buried with the Ukie fiasco?
Posted by: Jonathan W | Apr 25 2023 12:49 utc | 22
While I think it is likely that US/NATO will 'double down' I dont expect US boots on ukrainian ground.
I think we'll see an increase of western pmc mercenaries. To deploy state armies to this war would surely cause genuine uproar in western societies, but pmc mercenaries wouldnt. theyll have to be paid though, but theres possibilities to raise some special taxes "solidarity tax" or shit. maybe up the gdp percentage for nato from 2 to 5% or so.
Posted by: Grasdackel | Apr 25 2023 12:53 utc | 23
prepare for a round of fingerpointing over "who lost Ukraine" in Washington. meanwhile the "strategists" at the State Department wonder how best to sell a war with China, now that the latest proxy war is being lost.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Apr 25 2023 13:01 utc | 24
If Zelensky tires to silently move out Orthodox Ukrainians should pay him a visit wherever he lands. They at least owe him that much.
Posted by: Fred777 | Apr 25 2023 13:03 utc | 25
Ilove your site,along warmth Duran,Garland Nixon and a few others.
Posted by: David Greenwood | Apr 25 2023 13:04 utc | 26
Anyone in DC still advocating war with China should be sent to the line of contact in Ukraine.
Posted by: Fred777 | Apr 25 2023 13:04 utc | 27
My fear is that NATO will get dragged deeper into the conflict – leading to world war – which those who have the power to bring about are oblivious to that looms. Ukraine defeat will not be the end of it – history never ends.
Something I have been warning and writing about for years. And I believe in an objective way, and I am grateful to sites like Moon of Alabama to be able to express my views. It never serves to be self-deluded or selective about the facts we choose. I am not an “expert”, nor influential. I can read and see the pattern of history: the signs are not encouraging. It seems that people would rather put their fate in power – which is an illusion – forgetting that all empires eventually get the war they are trying to avoid: even nuclear war it seems now. My views are not well shared, yet considered dangerous to twitter, from which I have been banned (presumably by an algorithm, initially at least). I was informed by the Twitter message, it was after “careful consideration”, and my appeal got nowhere. My appeal is quoted below:
Dear Twitter Support Team,
I wish to appeal your suspension of my account for allegedly breaching Twitter Rules on Platform Manipulation and Spam. If you check you will see the level of traffic could not ‘artificially amplify or suppose information’. Nor would that be my intention. Nor would I have any ability (or intention) to manipulate or disrupt ‘people’s experience of Twitter’.
There is no commercial element to my activity, but to share my ideas (and contribute to debate). To this purpose people can download my free e-book. If they wish to read on Kindle there is a nominal charge of $.0.99 required by Amazon. If someone wants a hard copy there is a charge of $10.99 to cover printing, post and packaging.
I am sure you will reverse the decision on consideration.
Many thanks,
Peter McLoughlin
I am an individual without a voice, making it unfair to be silenced – but then perhaps the weakest and smallest are first to be silenced. I am asking for support – even if you may not agree with me – to share the link below as widely as you can: in the cause of free speech.
Thank you.
https://patternofhistory.wordpress.com/
Posted by: peter mcloughlin | Apr 25 2023 13:21 utc | 28
So the 'narrative' is they can still control the narrative. The missing element is the simple fashioned unconditional surrender by the Ukrainian fools who sold their country to the western agenda. All Nato wants is Crimea, and thereby the Black Sea. Without that option then interest will drop very quickly. The US military industrial complex has dumped the junk and cleaned out the warehouses. The future re-stocking $bonanza is yet to come. (It's the only economy left, stupid!)
The Russians (& friends) will close in on the Polish/Nato borderlands at a pace that suits the re-configuration of the wider Global North-South framework. The Russian speaking world will settle down with all the western 'bling' that is needed to live a very nice 21st century life style. Thank you, 1%! As will the Asian, Indian and African (& perhaps Latin America) once the new de-dollarized economy kicks into gear.
My sense is, we'll be here this time next year in much the same slow-grind position except the lines on the map will be far west of current positions. The new Russian federation borders will be whole and probably include Odessa and Transnistria. The issue will be Belarus-Russia dealing with a failed state on their borderlands. The Russian economy (plus Chinese belt-n-road transport policy) will rebuild much of the non-Banderite regions and whatever is left of the post- Nato will be floundering around in funding crisis. Unless the Russians completely stuff it up (and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory) there will be a European-Russian security agreement in the making.
The Europeans will be coming out of a cold gas-less winter and the world will have mainly moved on. Agricultural protectionism has already started but will be in full swing by then. As for the Biden-Trump Show -- the purple team wins again and China-Taiwan is the proxy news-decoy of the day. The News cycle will be on BRICS+++ etc.
Posted by: imo | Apr 25 2023 13:22 utc | 29
Steven Starr 13
Interesting theory about Odessa. That would definitely feel like a loss for the russians. I have thougth that in the Final agreement the russians would insist that the Kharkow and Odessa oblast's should be allowed free elections. With US/ Moldovan/ Romanian troops taking Odessa, US can build their base there, merge Moldova and Romania with a coastline all the way up to Crimea.
Armageddon secured for forever.
If russia want it back they have to attack romania, an EU and Nato member.
Posted by: Paul Norway | Apr 25 2023 13:30 utc | 30
Wow many people here heavily underestimate American stupidity.
Biden is a lock to win again. Tucker Carlson was removed and White House was given immunity to do as they please including colluding with FBI, CIA, etc to make sure they win.
Ukraine doesnt even figure in top 10 topics for american public. Which means White House can keep doing what they do for another term.
Trump, Desantis, Younkin, Kennedy have less than ZERO chance to win anything.
Ukraine war will go on for at least 2 more years.
Posted by: Comandante | Apr 25 2023 13:31 utc | 31
"Why would Russia stop until the current government is gone ?
So they can rearm and come back in 5 years.
Posted by: Kiser8 | Apr 25 2023 12:03 utc | 2"
Russia has no intention of stopping unless peace talks include all conditions that Russia sets out are met. That includes the removal of the current Kiev regime. Everybody seems to have and opinion on what should happen but we only need to look back on statements by the Russian leaders to know what is in their minds. Certainly the Russians want peace but not at the expense of their tabled objectives.
Knowing these objectives to include de-nazification of the Ukraine government, freeing the ethnic Russian people and de-militarisation of the country then it means taking all of the eastern Dnipro at least to Sumy and also all of the south through to Transnistria, possibly even Krivoy Rog and hopefully Zaporozhye city itself.
Posted by: Bluedog57 | Apr 25 2023 13:32 utc | 32
The biggest problem for the West may not be Ukraine's defeat. It is how to spin the narrative so that the defeat never happened.
Caitlin Johnstone wrote something like "What if Ukraine loses and the Western media fails to notice." (Unfortunately I cannot find the article.)
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 25 2023 13:36 utc | 33
There seems to be a perfect storm building around the Biden administration these days.
The analysis of the abysmal mess that is it's Ukraine project carried on these posts, is stark in it's bleakness
Blinken has become ensnared in the censorship of the Hunter Biden laptop story in the run up to the 20w0 election, just as Joe announces his reelection bid.
And Susan Rice walks away, and the Nordstream sabotage has not gone away.
Another story or two, a couple more departures, and the Biden administration could find itself submerged in scandals and bad news
What better way to take people's minds of things than nuking Crimea.
Posted by: Orcbard 1 | Apr 25 2023 13:40 utc | 34
"The biggest problem for the West may not be Ukraine's defeat. It is how to spin the narrative so that the defeat never happened.
Caitlin Johnstone wrote something like "What if Ukraine loses and the Western media fails to notice." (Unfortunately I cannot find the article.)
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 25 2023 13:36 utc | 33"
This can easily be accomplished given american stupidity. This summer will be critical tho. As gas will go up and thats the only fear the White House could have of Americans noticing anything.
Also Ukraine has 1 job. Hold on through the summer and do some kind of fake offensive such as planting a flag on some deserted Ukranian area.
Come fall, the Trump to jail circus will arrive and they will pkay through 2023 and 2024 until the election clown show starts. That will go on till 2025.
I would not be surprised if something else big happens this summer in case Ukraine collapses. Such as terrorist attack, season of US riots, another pandemic or even an alien visit.
Posted by: Comandante | Apr 25 2023 13:48 utc | 35
"The alternative to giving up is for the U.S. to escalate again by putting boots on the ground. But Biden wants to win his reelection fight and any further escalation of the war in Ukraine would likely prevent that."
So they drag it on until January 2025 and then escalate?
Posted by: AG | Apr 25 2023 13:49 utc | 36
[email protected] Is right. It is not as of most of these neo-cons were not of 'military age.' They are a lot younger and fitter than the poor bloody slobs being scooped up off the streets of Ukraine and sent into the trenches to die.
What the Russians understand is that, when the Korean War ended in an armistice, the great mass of opinion on both sides of the 38th parallel wanted unification under a socialist government led by the men who had fought against Japanese imperialism.
After a decade or two of brainwashing and death squad activity support for re-unification in the South had softened. It took years of bloody repression and a propaganda campaigned based upon the isolation, sanctioning, constant intimidation and immiseration of north Korea, until it became a by-word for the brain dead, but re-unification today seems very far off.
Any peace in Ukraine has to include de-nazification. Those fascist text books that we have been subisidising so that every school kid could learn that Ukraine has always existed as a state, that it is superior to all others, that its mission is to rule the world etc ad nauseam, have to go. So have the Nazi militias.
And not just in Ukraine either-Latvia and Estonia need immediate re-education, Poland and Lithuania arent far behind.
Western Europe has to stop promoting Nazi Lebensraum policies. The US has to remove its bases from the Continent.
De-dollarisation would ensure that it did.
Posted by: bevin | Apr 25 2023 13:50 utc | 37
It appears the US is on course for the next election to be Biden vs Trump, once again. That would be controlled opposition for the Neocons. Biden, who focused on Russia, and Trump, who is focused on China. Same playbook. Same agenda. Keep the US in power by subjugating other nations. It is hard to be optimistic in the US. Nor is it for vassal countries of the US or any it targets.
The rise of BRICS+, the SCO etc. offers a glimpse of hope.
Will the US ever have a leader that extends a hand instead of cracking a whip?
Posted by: Slat1 | Apr 25 2023 13:50 utc | 38
If Blinken was able to kill the Hunter Biden laptop story for a while to boost Biden's chances the first time around, there is little doubt he is able to "kill" the Tucker Carlson countenarrative to boost Biden's chances the second time around. In fact, the fact that his role in the Hunter Biden censorship came out just at this time may be part of his plan - after all, nobody would suspect him to have the nerve to do it all over again. In a few weeks, nobody will remember Ukie, not even Tucker. Unless he finds a way to do just that. But then again, Trump has legal trouble on several fronts and Tucker is not going to run and as De Santis has the best of enemies in Trump, what difference is it going to make? And just to show the power of the narrative-mongers: the White House was even able to blame the Afghanistan debacle on Trump!
Posted by: Jonathan W | Apr 25 2023 13:53 utc | 39
A question I have asked from the start is how this ends.
The question of whether Ukraine can win is not interesting. Russia can win but if the other side does not surrender Russia cannot stop and has to keep putting effort in. So maybe Russia will have to continue and take Kiev, Odessa and Lviv. And then there may still be heavy guerilla tactics and so on. And then there is escalation on other fronts.
Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Apr 25 2023 14:01 utc | 40
God Works in Mysterious Ways
@Dave Oneil | Apr 25 2023 12:15 utc | 5
U.S intelligence says Russia used Tucker Carlson for their propaganda campaign against Ukraine.
Let me explain this sentence for you:
- Russian propaganda and Russian disinformation are codewords U.S intelligence uses for truth, particularly unwanted truth.
- Truth has many messenger. It has mysterious ways of coming out.
For an unbeliever it is easy to understand William Cowper's adage, if one replaces the word God with the word Truth. One can thus say Truth works in mysterious ways. There is no need to assume Russia's hand behind Tucker Carlson, any more than the hand of God.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 25 2023 14:05 utc | 41
When my son was young, on a common bike hike a young woodchuck run across the dirt road in front of use. Woodchucks have a habit of running STRAIGHT to their hole when in possible danger. With a thick tree in front of it, the critter jumped up and just stayed there, hanging on the tree bark. My teenage son laughed:
"Oh, dear, I forgot that I cannot climb a tree!"
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 25 2023 14:13 utc | 42
Want to point out that Blinken is trained since childhood in the Robert Maxwell School of Fictional News.
Meanwhile in the real world Russia and China are simply running the table and taking victory laps on the diplomatic and trade fronts. US power is in full collapse.
Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 25 2023 14:15 utc | 43
Ukraine still has its 12 brigades ready for something, you can bet they will be used one way or another before any end.
Nobody is quit yet, there will be attacks by ukraine to gain territory. I've helpfully spelled our what they are looking for earlier, now just sit back and wait. These ukraine is about to collapse articles are good for morale around here, but aren't sober analysis.
Like for instance can russia even project military force away from the rail lines? Not really their best bet is pinprick missle strikes which only work on the highest value targets, they aren't mass produced enough to do much more.
And Poland isn't going to give up making their empire, off of russias corpse(and germanys)
So calm down and await developments. This is not the collapse your looking for. *star wars*
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 25 2023 14:18 utc | 44
I just prey i live to see the day when all those responsible for this disgrace get arrested.
Sarkozy thought he was smart with what he did to Gheddafi... a few years later he went to jail and it was bye bye Carla Bruni, hello Bruno from Block D.
Karma has a lot more sharpened bayonets over this Ukraine war, all just waiting to meet the right assh0le.
Posted by: Et Tu | Apr 25 2023 14:21 utc | 45
Posted by: Jonathan W | Apr 25 2023 13:53 utc | 39
The Potemkin States of America will position the candidate that best represents the facade or artifice that the institutional policy makers need to further their objectives. The name of said candidates or parties is immaterial as are the pledges they make to implement their visions of where the country is headed.
Posted by: Digital Spartacus | Apr 25 2023 14:22 utc | 46
They are setting up the narrative for a 404 State defeat.
I bet the bodies they are able to forcefully collect have no spirit to fight or the military skills/discipline after years of staring at flat-screens.
Russia will go slow and use the winning method, Meat Grinder.
Posted by: Tom_12 | Apr 25 2023 14:27 utc | 47
" I could see Lviv/Lvov being offered to the Polish just to further weaken Ukraine to a Kiev based city-state. "
It does not work that way. All to often, outside observers look at maps and forget that there are people living there. People in Crimea hate living in a state that worships fascist "heroes" and eliminates Russian from education and public sphere in general. People in Lviv love that.
Mind you, western Ukrainian nationalism originated from the situation in which they had limited political rights (just enough to complain) and were under domination of Polish landowners under pro-aristocratic preferences of Russian and Austrian empires. And they hated being forced to Polish education and the lack of Ukrainian in the public sphere in Poland between the world wars. The outcome of putting them back under Polish rule would not be any better now.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 25 2023 14:31 utc | 48
There are a lot of good comments here, looking at many of the players in this tragedy. But there are even more considerations, more nations, more people with opinions, more facts, which reminds me of the Rumsfeld Matrix:
Rumsfeld -- DOD during the Iraq tragedy -- stated:
"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones."
Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 25 2023 14:32 utc | 49
Posted by: Fred777 | Apr 25 2023 13:03 utc | 25
I could see Volodymyr Zelenskyy getting the Rezső Kasztner treatment wherever he winds up. I hope the RF take all the eastern oblasts as well as Moldova.
Give the Poles back Galicia and let them deal with the fascist scum. I don't think there will be much love lost.
What a tragedy. Sadly, most Ukrainians I have had the displeasure to know are a fairly stupid lot. I have a lot of respect for Givi, Motorola, Zakharchenko, though.
I bet Medvedchuk gets put in place to "run 'tings" as the Jamaicans say.
Nestor Makhno is my hero. Here is a song he wrote about the defeat of his Ukrainian Black Army during the civil war.
Чому не вийшло? - Why Didn't it Work? (Ukrainian Anarchist Song)
He is buried in Père Lachaise Cemetery.
Hopefully Ukraina can return to its borders back in Kiev-Rus times and be a pleasant farmland, peppered with some steel mills, cleared of land mines, where one can eat some salo, raise some children, and wonder when the next war will start up.
Posted by: lex talionis | Apr 25 2023 14:37 utc | 50
The collective West is delusional. There is not going to be any negotiation to end the conflict except total surrender of the Ukronazis and a total demilitarization and denazification of the Ukraine. The newly acquired regions will have to be officially recognized as part of Russia, and all the Banderites who committed atrocities against Russian soldiers and civilians will have to be brought to book. Somehow I think Zelensky would not live to enjoy his war loots.
Posted by: Steve | Apr 25 2023 14:39 utc | 51
There's a limit to how far any Ukrainian offensive (hypothetical or otherwise) can go without air support.
No matter how fantastic NATO's plans, no matter how many thousands (lol) of leopard 2's or Abrams they've sneaked in, there's just so far they can go when they're up against the Russians and their mostly intact air force which they'll bring in any time they need.
This to me is the giveaway that all this offensive talk is just window dressing.
The best they've got is a dollar store version of Tet.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 25 2023 14:39 utc | 52
Biden Prepares To Give Up On Ukraine. Will we get our money back?
Posted by: Sink | Apr 25 2023 14:41 utc | 53
@b, thank you very much for your analysis, may you be right on that one!
...several recent articles in the mainstream press gave me a similar impression, in that they become "slightly objective"
BUT, there remains the possibility that it's only noise, such as leaks, in order to deceive the Russians before an/or "the" offensive ?
On this subject and on this point, I share the analysis of [email protected]: no haste, it has been more than a year since I read here that Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. IRL the only responsible attitude is to never underestimate your opponent.
On this subject it is worth re-reading Wagner's communiqués, including those of Prigojine.
Posted by: Tak-Tik | Apr 25 2023 14:43 utc | 54
Ukraine still has its 12 brigades ready for something, you can bet they will be used one way or another before any end.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 25 2023 14:18 utc | 44
You are right. We must not underestimate them.
Russia is not weak, but Ukraine is still very strong.
They have immense manpower, Dima said.
Many laugh at him, bit I think he is right there.
The question is: What needs to happen so the West stops paying for this war?
Posted by: Srbin | Apr 25 2023 14:44 utc | 55
wander ....why this sudden departure of villain - flaming neolib/warmonger/globalist S. Rice from FJB administration...????dump 404 country ???
We must also not underestimate EU.
They are weak vassals, but they are insane.
They are ready for anything.
Posted by: Srbin | Apr 25 2023 14:48 utc | 58
"..Ukraine still has its 12 brigades ready for something, you can bet they will be used one way or another before any end..." [email protected]
What? 35,000 men?
Posted by: bevin | Apr 25 2023 14:50 utc | 59
Of Course USA is Going to Move On
The USA has achieved their primary objective, namely to get the European Union off Russian oil and natural gas and have it use american and Israeli oil and gas sources instead. The first Israeli shipment to the EU of oil occurred in February this year and more to come.
The USA has also been able to dispose of their out of date or obsolete stocks of toxic ammunition very cost effectively, and without having to conform to environmental regulations. They wanted to get rid of some of the depleted uranium stuff but that's probably not going to happen.
What's left of Ukraine that Russia or Belarus does not specifically occupy, will be the new home for migrants that the EU does not want.
The Ukraine rump buffer is a two way street - protects Nato as much as Russia. Odessa is not that significant of a loss. Nato will have access in every country surrounding the Black Sea except Russia.
So time for Uncle Joe to say "Mission Accomplished", and move on to the next investment.
Posted by: Jerr | Apr 25 2023 14:51 utc | 60
Pretzelattack no. 24
"prepare for a round of fingerpointing over "who lost Ukraine""
More like dick pointing, as that's all they seem to do - stand around with their dicks in their hands. 😂🤣
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Apr 25 2023 14:53 utc | 61
Arch Bungle @ 52
US has lots of F-15 and F-16. Both of them are 1970s platforms. Russian AD will use them for target practice.
The handful of available F-22 and F-35 will not be used as they would fall from the sky all by themselves.
US has air support that works in third world and fourth world countries
Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 25 2023 14:53 utc | 62
will Russia try a rapprochement with Western Europe, using the peace in Ukraine as a bargaining chip? It could make sense from a geopolitical point of view and I think the Russians are actually open to a number of scenarios.
Posted by: SG | Apr 25 2023 12:15 utc | 4
Both sides will feel they can benefit from a hostile, if now again cold, war. The bifurcation is benefiting the multipolar geopolitical realignments accelerated since the SMO as the West's essentially hostile arrogance is increasingly perceived as not only immoral but also a counterproductive dead-end for their peoples' future. So it's fine for Russia-China.
And for the US, it provides an over-arching narrative allowing them to blame an Other for their trials and tribulations which are only going to get worse as the Collapse-Reset strategy from the WEF fronted elites continues. Biden may take the blame domestically so people have somewhere to vent their frustrations domestically, but the elites won't yet have to take too much incoming.
(Probably the main reason Carlson was let go, though it might actually increase his audience if he goes off as an independent. Elon has probably already offered to build an internet-based News and Commentary operation for him featuring regular in-depth interviews.)
So: whether or not the kinetics in Donbass continue, the Bifurcation-Reset drama will drag on. We are only in Act II.
"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones."
Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 25 2023 14:32 utc | 49
I have to disagree with Rumsfeld, it is the 4th category: the things you know that are not so, that will give you the most trouble.
---
wander ....why this sudden departure of villain - flaming neolib/warmonger/globalist S. Rice from FJB administration...????dump 404 country ???
Posted by: sejmon | Apr 25 2023 14:45 utc | 57
I expect we will see her on the campaign, but at the moment, she is a sacraficial goat being driven out, with all of Biden's sins, and the stink of Obama-ism. Joe is going to be reborn.
Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 25 2023 14:59 utc | 64
You are right. We must not underestimate them.
Russia is not weak, but Ukraine is still very strong.
They have immense manpower, Dima said.
Many laugh at him, bit I think he is right there.
The question is: What needs to happen so the West stops paying for this war?
Posted by: Srbin | Apr 25 2023 14:44 utc | 55
---------
Depends on one's definition of "immense", they've already buggered the long-term future of the Ukraine. Between men who are dead, crippled, fled or fighting for the Russian side.
NATO wont stop paying, it simply becomes more strenuous to do so & with less value for money over time as Ukraine's economy is moribund and the West has to pay for everything in the country.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Apr 25 2023 15:00 utc | 65
Is Tucker being buried with the Ukie fiasco?
Jonathan W | Apr 25 2023 12:49 utc | 22
------
Sure, that's an entirely plausible coincidence theory you offer :-). Somehow, however, I doubt that Tucker will remain entombed as long as Lazarus. This morning, ZH speculated that Tucker's speech at the Heritage Foundation was the last straw for the Murdoch Morlocks. Surprisingly, he got a fair amount of applause. Even in the stink tanks, there seems to be increasing revulsion to systemic corruption and deceit. Liberal application of Mentholatum can no longer hide the reek of decomp.
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Apr 25 2023 15:04 utc | 66
Don Firineach | Apr 25 2023 11:45 utc | 1
Of course, the key question remains: What the f$€£ were the US doing in Europe and Russia's backyard in the first place?
Brzezinski wrote The Grand Chessboard in 1997.
a) when Communism collapsed, the US became the only world power
b) they intend to keep things that way and expand their control over all “Western” countries – and the definition of what makes a “Western” country includes homosexual marriage and Drag Queen Story Hour – see Samantha Power visiting Hungary to fund various Soros-style groups.
c) they have discovered Mackinder’s World Island theory – basically “he who controls Eurasia controls the globe”
d) as defined in “The Grand Chessboard”, America must stop any other country being able to generate “global power”. Also as defined, Russia sans Ukraine = regional power, Russia plus Ukraine as an ally = global power.
e) therefore Ukraine must become part of “the West” with homosexual marriage, Drag Queen Story Hour – and lots of missiles pointed at Moscow from only 500km or so away.
f) hence Nuland, Maidan and the mysterious gunmen who killed so many of the anti-Russian protesters AND the pro-Russian government’s police in 2014. Job done ! Pro-West Ukraine (except those Russian bits)!
Not surprisingly, Russia doesn’t quite see things through that lens and didn’t fancy a US Fleet sailing into Sebastopol. The US version is “Putin wants to be Peter The Great!”.
(The other thing Brzezinski and Wolfovitz underestimated was China's rise. After all, only 23 years before The Grand Chessboard in 1997, China looked pretty Third World
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Banqiao_Dam_failure
)
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Apr 25 2023 15:06 utc | 67
Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 25 2023 14:53 utc | 62
US has lots of F-15 and F-16 ... Russian AD will use them for target practice.
Indeed. AKA - "no air support".
When you think about it, Russia has a weird kind of air supremacy: They decide what stays up in the air. The Ukrainians? Not so much ..
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 25 2023 15:08 utc | 68
Of course we all know what the US would do, if say, China put some missiles on the Mex-US border just to balance things out a bit.
Posted by: expat | Apr 25 2023 15:08 utc | 69
Posted by: expat | Apr 25 2023 15:08 utc | 69
The Chinese don't operate like that.
They put fentanyl on the US border.
Much deadlier than missiles ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 25 2023 15:10 utc | 70
It was long and I didn't to finish yet but yesterday on the Duran channel there was a discussion between Ray McGovern, Glenn Diesen and Alexander that I found fascinating. Ray was talking about parallels with the "leaks" from the boy, "Pentagon Papers" and the "Tet Offensive".
Posted by: chunga | Apr 25 2023 15:13 utc | 71
Surprisingly, he got a fair amount of applause. Even in the stink tanks, there seems to be increasing revulsion to systemic corruption and deceit. Liberal application of Mentholatum can no longer hide the reek of decomp.
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Apr 25 2023 15:04 utc | 66
Tucker: I think he is running, not sure for what yet.
NATO wont stop paying, it simply becomes more strenuous to do so & with less value for money over time as Ukraine's economy is moribund and the West has to pay for everything in the country.
---
@Posted by: Urban Fox | Apr 25 2023 15:00 utc | 65:
I think the main point is that they are doing the bleeding, and to stop the bleeding, they will have to quit, give up, stop feeding it, because THEY are keeping it going, and there is no way at all that they can win any time soon.
Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 25 2023 15:16 utc | 72
@ #5
I think they had to get rid of Tucker because Washington needs to pass their Fascist Restricted Act Law which will crack down totally on the 1st amendment. They are losing to Russia and China , so they will take it out on the people, thinking that they won't revolt. Moon has touched on this but needs to maybe write on it some more. my 2 rubles worth. Thanks.
Posted by: GMC | Apr 25 2023 15:22 utc | 73
They have stated over and over the goal is to destroy Russia. That is 100% the goal. Since 2001 they have been murdering millions, running tourture camps and displaying absolute satanic behavior.
Russia sent out the subs and they are moving the nukes to Belarus, they have been told they must surrender to make Nato stop. This is already out of control.
That is a massive army they just built Ukraine, it's going to start to be impossible for Russia to keep up with so much gear.
Posted by: OohCanada | Apr 25 2023 15:24 utc | 74
“If Ukraine can’t gain dramatically on the battlefield, the question inevitably arises as to whether it is time for a negotiated stop to the fighting,” said Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. “It’s expensive, we’re running low on munitions, we’ve got other contingencies around the world to prepare for."
IOW, It's time to declare victory, evacuate, and move on to China.
Simplicius' latest post nicely complements this evolving narrative.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/video-roundup-42423?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#play (emphasis added)
Rubio spells it out very clearly and explicitly: the coming global confrontations are all about the U.S. Empire’s desperate last-haul measure to protect its dollar hegemony, which is the only remaining leverage that U.S. has left in the world at all. As a flagging military power, entrenched on its own faraway world-island, U.S. no longer has the ability to project its might in a way that could deter Great Powers, or even regional ones. The dollar remains the sole instrument of the U.S.’s global dominance, but it is a privilege the American ruling class has abused to such a flagrant extent as to have extinguished its carrying power. Now, they are panicking, and openly admitting it.“They’re going to trade in their own currencies, get right around the dollar,” cries bat-eared boy Rubio. “They’re creating a secondary economy in the world, totally independent of the United States,” he stammers. And the kicker: “We won’t have to talk about sanctions in five years, because there’ll be so many countries transacting in currencies other than the dollar, that we won’t have the ability to sanction them!”
Quelle horror! The sun is setting on the Empire of Plunder.
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Apr 25 2023 15:24 utc | 75
Hey, here's an idea, CNN could pick up Tucker and instantly get a few million more viewers.
LOL
Posted by: Perimetr | Apr 25 2023 15:24 utc | 76
I just want to say that I have always thought that McKinders theory is just the kind of simple-minded idea you would expect from a British Navy officer, and Zbig Brezinski was a fool.
I'd say the facts bear me out.
Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 25 2023 15:25 utc | 77
TTG at turcopolier has an opinion:
The Ukrainian spring offensive will consist of at 20+ brigades:
9x NATO trained (7x mechanized, 1x marine, 1x air assault)
3x Ukrainian trained (likely: 1x tank, 2x mechanized)
8x offensive guard (4x of these recently taken out of the front for rest and refit)
As for the artillery brigades: 2x have M777 howitzers, 1x has PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers, 1x has M270 MLRS… and the other two: maybe Archer? maybe Zuzana 2?
Most of this information is publicly available: @Militarylandnet collected a lot of it from the social medial pages of Ukrainian units, while @JominiW published maps with the known Ukrainian units at the front.
This info is of little use to the Russians. Ukraine can mass forces between Dnipro and Donetsk and strike either South, or South-East, or East with very little warning for the Russians. And once the offensive gets underway 50,000+ Ukrainian troops will barrel down on 1-2 km of Russian front. With 30-40,000 follow-up troops.
My tip to Russian troops: start shooting your officers and flee to Russia. It’s your only chance. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 25 2023 15:26 utc | 78
This is the time when we all move our pieces on the game board, imagining what territories will soon be ours. It's not quite as easy.
For example, Romanians and Moldavians will not occupy Odessa (unless on vacation five years from now). If they even tried most will be dead before they reach city limits. There is no reputable navy in the Black Sea besides the Russians. If the US hasn't figured out how to make a hypersonic missile I doubt Moldava has. Plus, it would give Russia the legal impetus to take it to NATO. Cutting off all access to the Black Sea would make Ukraine pretty much useless for the West.
So let me move my pieces. When Ukraine surrenders Russia will move as far as they want. What's left of the Ukraine army will surrender or flee towards Lvov. Regions under Russian occupation, or even just ungoverned by the broken Ukrainian government, will look to the east. Some territories may be "independent" as opposed to actually voting to join Russia. They will still be looking to Russia.
As far as which administration wins in the US in 2024, neither party will be able to change the course of the American ship. I would hope that Bobby Kennedy Jr. runs, maybe with someone like Tulsi Gabbard, but in America that usually means a Kennedy dies by a lone nut.
Posted by: Bob In Portland, Ore | Apr 25 2023 15:26 utc | 79
Great relief he’s back … the analysis and overview from b. makes a difference … thx for all to keep us informed outside the cloud and mist of DC and the war narrative of NATO allies. Stoltenberg can go … how long will Zelensky keep acting?
Information wars: the fine art of mass manipulation in the digital age (May 1, 2017)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBEbV12s0S0&t=4226s
Forgot to close blockquote. "Quelle horror!..." was not in linked quote.
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Apr 25 2023 15:30 utc | 81
Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 25 2023 15:25 utc | 77
McKinders theory is just the kind of simple-minded idea you would expect from a British Navy officer,
It had it's merits in the days when the British had the industrial might and pilfered wealth enough to go zipping from one end of world to the other faster than anyone else.
It's time came and went a century ago.
That's why Brezinski was indeed a fool.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 25 2023 15:30 utc | 82
Of course it’s the end game of declaring a victory and leaving - there is a fire sale going on of the last assets there. The Finks of Blackrock pirates really believe they will be able to retain these because they have ‘contracts’ with Elensky’s deposed government.
Let’s see eh?
There will be a reckoning - from the remaining even poorer Ukrainians left behind, others who think they were safe in Europe which doesn’t want them forever more scrounging of us and most of all from the tens of thousands of these pow’s and these returning conscripts who survived. All see that Russia rebuilds and looks after these who want to live in peace with it, whereas the natzos have filled their boots while poisoning the minds of the deluded Ukrainians for a generation.
No amount of demented terrorists left behind will stop many a region voting to seek alliance with Russia like the 3 regions already have.
I expect a truth and reconciliation, process - maybe Ben brokered by the experienced South Africa - will bring a quicker balm to the rupture that has been purposefully created by our Collective Wastes Old Aristo Great Gamers.
The Brits are NOT going to be full of zeal and patriotism at the Holy Oil anointing in less than two weeks - we are fed up with our lot. We are NOT going to rush to die in the next big bullshit cause thousands of miles from home.
This summer is going to be HOT. It is feeling like the 80’s amongst the dispossessed youth many of whom are finally getting angry. There is a lot of grassroots local new parties which will be making amazing gains in the coming local elections next week.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Apr 25 2023 15:31 utc | 83
It seems to me that the trend is: 10 years before public becomes fed-up and permanent US government becomes distracted by new objective. Serious money is being made on this war and is projected to be made on this war.
Admittedly, the performance in Ukraine has not been been very reassuring to "allies". And has been somewhat embarrassing with regard to "rules-based order" and human rights and war crimes and respect for sovereignty and meddling in internal affairs and corruption - on pretty much every measure they have made a mess of it really.
One might wish to put a tarp over it and move on.
But this was Europe's great hope - Annalena is just getting started.
Without this, EU is toast.
But Taiwan beckons. And China is preparing. Now with China riled and teamed-up with Russia - I think the issue is not Taiwan so much as South Korea and Japan. I hope that Japan is not going to get itself nuked for a third time. But it should not come to that if it just looks at reality and where the it's future lies.
Posted by: jared | Apr 25 2023 15:31 utc | 84
Russia, with a much bigger military, currently lacks the resources and the tactical initiative to attack. That should speak for itself. Of Course Russia will overstate the expected goals of its enemy so they can "fall short" of achieving them.
But the fact that the Russian Army is treading water instead of advancing in triumph is a sign that their plans have failed.
Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | Apr 25 2023 15:34 utc | 85
ps: when I wrote "it has been more than a year since I read here that Ukraine is on the verge of collapse.", I was of course talking about the forum, not about b's articles.
@Srbin-56&58 : exactly,
one have to listen to the Russian soldiers who explain that the Ukrainian fighters are strong, that they are courageous and determined warriors, for the good and simple reason that they are "same", the same family...people like Prigojine or Tolstoï only report their words.
Posted by: Tak-Tik | Apr 25 2023 15:34 utc | 86
[email protected]
Mackinder wasn't a Naval Officer. He was a lifelong academic and one of the founders of the LSE.
Are you thinking of Captain Mahan USN ?
Posted by: bevin | Apr 25 2023 15:34 utc | 87
reply to 78
Yes, as General Hodges said, it will be easy. Funny how the West's "experts" ignore Russia having nuclear weapons. Also funny how a massive counterstrike is possible while they slowly lose on all fronts, especially Bakhmut. Sounds very much like Hitler doing the Battle of the Bulge. He lacked airpower and ran outta gas.
Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 25 2023 15:35 utc | 88
Gee, looks like "For as long as it takes..." has a time limit. In Crooke's article I posted yesterday, he makes the following observation:
Do then the neo-cons believe their own myths? Well, ‘yes’ and ‘no’. ‘Yes’, in that the neo-cons are a group of people who come to share a common view (i.e. Russia as fragile and fissiparous), often proposed by a few ideologues deemed to be credentiallised. It is a view however, not based in reality. These adherents may be convinced intellectually that their view is right, but their belief cannot be tested in a way which could confirm it beyond doubt. It is simply based on a picture of the world as they imagine it to be, or more to the point, as they would like it to be....The neo-con myth of Russia on the cusp of implosion makes no sense. But it is a picture of the world as the neo-cons imagine it to be, or more to the point, would like it to be. [Emphasis Original]
And of course, that's been the story all along going back to the Soviet Union's breakup and declaration of the New World Order and the fantastically insane quest for Full Spectrum Domination where there would never be any effective attempts to stop their crime spree. Well, the moment of truth arrived first with Russia's slap-down of Georgia/NATO in 2008 followed by Russia's 2013 and 2015 interventions in Syria, capped by the Ukraine/NATO SMO. Those interventions helped provide space for dissent within the Empire, first with Tulsi Gabbard's aim to end the Forever Wars, her Stop Arming Terrorists Act legislation, Trump's Drain the Swamp and attempted exits from Syria and Afghanistan that the MIC sabotaged, and now RFKjr's pledge to rollback the overseas empire as it's the source of the average American's bane/pain. The Rovian false reality has finally imploded for Ukraine; now it must be done with the China fantasy.
The problem with exposing the latter resides within Congress and BigLie Media. With luck, the next round of illegal sanctions aimed at China will have heavy blowback on the Empire's economy just as Trump's Trade War did. Then there's China's legal position regarding Taiwan that is recognized by the world and isn't what the Neocons would like it to be.
This counter offensive is very unlikely to involve a lightning advance through largely uncontested terrain. The Russians went in light, but by the summer, saw their mistake, and conscripted additional troops. Kiev air defense is a lot worse than it was, and any movement by Kiev gets squashed (like crossing the dneiper) by Russian aviation. there is no way, Biden will fight a war during the election and no way will american boots be committed either. The people who stopped to peace talks in April 2022 in Istanbul ought to be in the Hague (ICC) on war crimes,
Posted by: Kaiama | Apr 25 2023 15:38 utc | 90
Posted by: Perimetr | Apr 25 2023 15:24 utc | 76
You should get hired by CNN! I found this is on ZH. It's a great speech by Tucker Carlson. Tucker/Gabbard 2024.
Tucker Carlson Keynote Address | Heritage 50th Anniversary Celebration
I would put it on the open thread, but it seems like T.Carlson is being discussed here a bit.
Say a Little Prayer - Dionne Warwick (1967)
Posted by: lex talionis | Apr 25 2023 15:38 utc | 91
Are you thinking of Captain Mahan USN ?
Posted by: bevin | Apr 25 2023 15:34 utc | 87
I have always thought he was a Navy guy, but maybe being British is enough, in any case I would for sure claim no particular knowledge of him but what I read.
Certainly the USN loves the idea. It like a job guarantee.
What do you think of McKinder's idea?
Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 25 2023 15:42 utc | 92
LoL so Comedian now singing that Ukraine is postponing his offensive until West hand over much more weapons, ammunition, Himars and rockets.
And yesterday Clown Kirby said West must aid Ukraine ASAP to defend vs a Russian offensive.
So now not only is Ukraines offensive not happening. But now we must arm Ukraine to defend from a Russian Spring Offensive
LoL. This clown show....
Posted by: Comandante | Apr 25 2023 15:43 utc | 93
Wow many people here heavily underestimate American stupidity.
Biden is a lock to win again. Tucker Carlson was removed and White House was given immunity to do as they please including colluding with FBI, CIA, etc to make sure they win.
Ukraine doesnt even figure in top 10 topics for american public. Which means White House can keep doing what they do for another term.
Trump, Desantis, Younkin, Kennedy have less than ZERO chance to win anything.
Ukraine war will go on for at least 2 more years.
Posted by: Comandante | Apr 25 2023 13:31 utc | 31
Well, it cannot be said that you don't have a sense of humor.
1. U.S. Media has always been a controlled exercise from the backrooms. The Cabal that runs the United States is pissed that they didn't have complete control of messaging, since Fox's job of controlled opposition, still had a somewhat independent thinker in Tucker. So, following the structure of Trudeau/Canada's "Liberals" who have 100% control of all Media and Internet messaging in Canada, Murdochs paid $800 million to Dominion (Toronto) and axed Tucker, because the backroom deal, via control of the 2024 election will give Murdochs all their money back and more.
2. "Biden's a lock" ? Perhaps. But the Cabal that installed him via machines and a small army of election counting/fabricating insiders are not so sure. Now there is inside fighting, since the Cabal's inside pResident, broke the deal of a 1-term Presidency, where Biden's slipping cognition could be smoothed over (somewhat). Now that Biden's cognition makes John Fetterman look like a top Chess Master, it is becoming near impossible to keep both feet out of Biden's mouth.
Don't count on Biden not changing his vacuous mind, nor having an accident. Susan Rice leaving is the tell.
Posted by: kupkee | Apr 25 2023 15:44 utc | 94
@59 begin, yes. It's probably more but 35000 men fully armed supplied and trained is probably more than the amount of assault troopers russia has in ukraine. They have lots of defenders and garrisons, but assault troops ready to fight for months? Basically it's just Wagner now, some airborne guys.
For example their assaults on ugledar probably had less than a thousand assault troops, and they had nothing left after it failed.
A hundred guys with atgm and manpads have combat potential unprecedented in wars history.
So, yeah, dismissive statements like that is why russia and its supporters are continually waiting for the collapse without understanding modern war. I'm learning all the time, every battle advances the craft of war nowadays.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 25 2023 15:45 utc | 95
It's time came and went a century ago.
That's why Brezinski was indeed a fool.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 25 2023 15:30 utc | 82
Good enough. A temporary advantage, always dependent on keeping everybody else down, which is fundamentally a dumb idea, keeping everybody else down.
Like I told one of my in-laws one time: 500 years ago we learned some new tricks, and got carried away with ourselves.
Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 25 2023 15:49 utc | 96
The war party is far FAR too invested in the Ukrainian Civil War to walk away so soon. The glorious (sic) NATO Counter Offensive with 650,000 ground forces will jump off possibly in 2024 but more likely in 2025.
Posted by: Exile | Apr 25 2023 15:49 utc | 97
@Petri Krohn | Apr 25 2023 13:36 utc | 33
The US pulls out of failed wars by picking a weaker opponent that they can easily destroy to focus everybody's attention elsewhere. They will have "simply had to" pull their support from Ukraine" to oil the new squeaky wheel by destroying it.
Isn't that the way that all bullies act?
Posted by: barstool | Apr 25 2023 15:49 utc | 98
Bemildred | Apr 25 2023 15:16 utc | 72
"Tucker: I think he is running, not sure for what yet."
Thanks for your reply. Good point. He's the only person I've watched on Faux News, and he certainly resonates with tens of millions of Americans.
Perhaps as RFK's VP? Some months ago, I watched his extended sit-down with RFK about his battles with big-pharma, vaccines, GM foods, and pandemic political corruption. It was quite inspiring. Their affinity and synergy were palpable.
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Apr 25 2023 15:50 utc | 99
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Apr 25 2023 15:06 utc | 67
e) therefore Ukraine must become part of “the West” with homosexual marriage, Drag Queen Story Hour – and lots of missiles pointed at Moscow from only 500km or so away.
Yes. Remember when Zelensky dressed up like a woman, in high heels?
That was a signal to the western elites - wink, wink, we are just like you, we're not slavic barbarians who believe in toxic masculinity and such.
He was performing a kind of drag show for his puppet masters. Part of the play.
Posted by: Chris | Apr 25 2023 15:52 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Of course, the key question remains:
What the fu€k were the US doing in Europe and Russia's backyard in the first place?
And the US bears primary responsibility for all these awful deaths as well as the devastation caused to Europe and the RoW.
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 25 2023 11:45 utc | 1