Same information coming from Donbass-insider (Christelle Neant).
https://www.donbass-insider.com/2023/03/21/russias-grip-on-avdeyevka-tightens-and-70-of-bakhmut-is-under-wagners-control/

Posted by: Fromfrance | Mar 21 2023 17:03 utc | 1

“I know what awaits us. As soon as Vladimir Putin has done his work in Seversk, Bakhmut and Soledar, after reaching the second line Slaviansk-Kramatorsk-Avdeevka, he will come up with a proposal. And if they [the West] don’t accept it, – and they won’t – all hell will break loose.” – Aleksandar Vucic, President of Serbia

Posted by: Otto | Mar 21 2023 17:07 utc | 2

The primary factor in victory this Spring and maybe Summer will be strategic mobility. Both Russia and Ukraine rely primarily on railroads for transport rather than trucks. Ukrainian railroads rely primarily on electric locomotives. Russia has severely degraded Ukraine's transmission grid and now generating facilities. This is in addition to capturing the biggest nuclear power plant in Europe.

Russia has also exhausted and destroyed most of Ukraine s air defense systems. This means that future attacks on electrical infrastructure will not be mitigated by air defenses. Russia is now poised to turn off the power in Ukraine, shutting down it's railroads. This means that when Russia then launches offensives at times and places of Russia's choosing, Ukraine will be unable to shift significant military forces into positions to respond.

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Mar 21 2023 17:09 utc | 3

The UK will send “armour piercing rounds which contain depleted uranium” to Ukraine, for use with the tank squadron donated by the British army.

deputy defence minister Baroness Goldie made the admission yesterday in response to a written parliamentary question from crossbench peer Lord Hylton.

Goldie said: “Such rounds are highly effective in defeating modern tanks and armoured vehicles.”

Russia has previously warned it would regard the use of depleted uranium in Ukraine as a ‘dirty bomb’.

Four Republicans in the Senate and House of Representatives are demanding Biden send banned cluster munitions to Ukraine.

“We are calling on you to immediately provide cluster munitions such as advanced dual-use conventional munitions (DPICM) to the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” said Senators Jim Rish and Roger Wicker, leading Republicans on the Foreign Relations and Armed Services Committees along with Congressmen. Michael McCall and Mike Rogers, Chairs of the House Foreign Relations and Armed Services Committees

Posted by: depleted uranium clm | Mar 21 2023 17:10 utc | 4

Any news on the cruise missile attack on Crimea?

Posted by: Jose Garcia | Mar 21 2023 17:10 utc | 5

Posted by: Jose Garcia | Mar 21 2023 17:10 utc | 5

It was drones.

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🎯 On the Ukrainian UAV Raid on #Dzhankoy in #Crimea⚡️

Another massive attack by Ukrainian UAVs was carried out on the Crimean peninsula last night. At least six "Mugin-5" type UAVs, artificially equipped with explosives, were used against #Dzhankoy.

As a result, two drones were shot down by a Pantsir SAM system, and two fell on administrative buildings near the railway station. A fifth destroyed a grocery shop, while shrapnel from a sixth damaged private houses on Yuzhnaya, Gagarin and Chekhov streets.

The map shows the approximate strike and impact areas of the drones, based on open source data.

🔹What was the Target of the AFU?

Initially, information was received that the AFU formations launched drones from the Shkolny airfield (#Odessa) to strike at the Russian military airfield. However, judging by the area of ​​application of the UAV, an attempt was made to hit the station building and the railway track.

#Dzhankoy is the main transit hub for the Russian grouping in #Crimea. Railway lines to #Sevastopol and mainland #Russia pass through the city train station, and the attempt to hit the facility looks logical.

Despite claims by the Ukrainian GUR that the attack hit a train carrying Kalibr cruise missiles, this was not the case. If the train with such weapons had been hit, at least a secondary detonation would have been visible - there are no consequences of the explosion.

In addition, the AFU, when launching drones over long distances, as a rule, score the coordinates in advance to increase the immunity of the means of electronic warfare. Hitting a moving train in this way is extremely difficult.

🔹Information Support

After the first sounds of explosion and engagement of air defence, Ukrainian infobots started to actively work in #Dzhankoy city chats, misinforming the population and inducing panic.

Various Telegram channels (such as Trukha and Insider) published posts about a dozen explosions in different parts of the city. These reports were accompanied by criticism of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who had arrived in #Moscow the day before.

At the same time, a Western agenda was being worked on, condemning the Chinese government's activities. The attempted strike on #Crimea was presented as "punishment for friendship with #China".

📌 Differences from previous Actions

The AFU once again changed tactics. The attack was carried out without NATO reconnaissance aircraft in the air. Neither Global Hawk nor Reaper were in the air at night.

Yesterday there was a raid by Ukrainian UAVs in Crimea. As we immediately got inside, they missed, but it was a trial run and now raids will be frequent. The West gave Ukraine all the necessary components for these toys.

These miracle UAVs from the Odessa region flew to the Crimea.
They were run in just yesterday afternoon and they were seen over Akkerman, local publics wrote about this, thinking that these were Russian drones.

Posted by: Down South | Mar 21 2023 17:14 utc | 6

Our source reports that if the Office of the President fails to send reserves to strike at the flanks in the Bakhmutov meat grinder in the near future, then the city may be surrounded. The boiler will close.

The GUR warns Zelensky that further sending soldiers to the meat grinder will not correct the situation, but will only aggravate it. PMC Wagner, on the contrary, is waiting for such a step from the Office of the President, luring them into a trap. It was clear back in December, but Zelensky stubbornly did not want to lose his image and rating due to the fall of Artemovsk. That's why he sent thousands of soldiers to the meat grinder.

Posted by: Down South | Mar 21 2023 17:15 utc | 7

@5

Not saying they're perfect, nor completely unbiased, but Southfront reported it was not very effective, harming civilians only, and the story about destroying the missiles was typical Ukrainian fakery, with no evidence of the attack having achieved its goal.

https://southfront.org/ukraine-targeted-crimea-with-massive-drone-strike/

Posted by: Chris | Mar 21 2023 17:15 utc | 8

@Jose Garcia | Mar 21 2023 17:10 utc | 5

"Drone attack defeated, no military targets in the area" is the Russian version.

Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 21 2023 17:16 utc | 9

Why is it necessary to destroy the air defense of Ukraine?

In the patriotic segment, Telegram once again raised the issue of the need to quickly disable the Ukrainian air defense. While colleagues are thinking about how best to solve this problem, let's talk again about the ultimate goal of this operation and what advantages it will give us.

First of all, it is important to understand that it is infinitely possible to click out the “taras” who have settled in the trenches one by one: the Armed Forces of Ukraine are capable of mobilizing a million rednecks with machine guns. At the same time, artillery and UAVs reach, at best, their near rear and cannot solve strategic tasks.

It is necessary to destroy the communications through which weapons, repair bases, warehouses, factories and workshops go to Ukraine. An armored personnel carrier without fuel is an iron coffin, a weapon to which ammunition was not brought up is a dull sculpture. Even a soldier who was not brought ammunition and food is no longer a soldier, but a bum, the best way out for him is to surrender.

It is necessary not to hunt crocodiles, but to drain the swamp, and only aviation can achieve this. Geraniums and Calibers are capable of inflicting painful blows, but to destroy the Ukrainian economy and communications, constant bombardments are needed - hundreds of strikes every day.

However, this is possible if aviation has a free hand in the Ukrainian sky. If not twenty Geraniums fly to the enemy once a week, but a hundred bombers every day. If he cannot drive on the road during the day, because any armored car is covered by Rooks. If the enemy is not able to unload equipment in ports and stations, because half-ton bombs are raining down on ports and stations every day. If the enemy cannot repair his wonderful Leopard, because the assembly point of emergency equipment has already been sprayed into atoms. If a recruit who has a summons stuck in his teeth does not even manage to become an infantryman, because he was covered by the FAB right in the barracks - and he even has nowhere to come according to the summons, because the FAB fell to the military registration and enlistment office too.

But all this is possible only in one case. If the air defense of Ukraine is suppressed.

Posted by: Down South | Mar 21 2023 17:17 utc | 10

@4

if I recall correctly us army demilitarized its 155 mm dipcms shells, and the cluster warheads of himars.

and the un exploded ordnance from a large fail to explode rate of the bomblets insists that the impact areas be treated as unmapped mine fields.

shows the ukranzis don’t own Donbas!

Posted by: paddy | Mar 21 2023 17:18 utc | 11

‼️ Starlink blocks the operation of terminals used by Ukraine on the territory of new Russian regions (Luhansk region, Donetsk region, Zaporozhye and Kherson), over water, and when the receiving device moves faster than 100 km/h — Economist

With the West hesitant to use long-range munitions, Ukraine is relying on drones to strike deep into Russia.

Elon Musk previously said he would not allow Starlink satellites to be used to escalate the conflict, which is why Starlink is now using geofencing to block the use of its terminals, according to a Ukrainian military intelligence source, over water and when the receiver is moving at over 100 km per hour

Posted by: Down South | Mar 21 2023 17:22 utc | 12

Thanks for the posting b

You wrote
"
Time is on Russia's side while the Ukrainian military needs to show action and success to keep its 'western' support going.
"

The Western support is getting frantic now and Z has nothing to say to Xi in the coming phone call but sure had better listen to what Xi says.

I think that having two areas with AFU military trapped is a good negotiating point for surrender by Z but he doesn't run the shit show, does he?

The shit show continues until it doesn't.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 21 2023 17:24 utc | 13

Russian tech firm creates long-range recon system with integrated drone It is reported that the long-range reconnaissance vehicle features a single system of image control and reception with its projection to a joint monitor
 
Specialists of the Astron Opto-Mechanical Design Bureau (part of the Shvabe Group within the state tech corporation Rostec) have engineered a long-range thermal imaging reconnaissance system based on artificial intelligence, Astron CEO Vladimir Popov told TASS on Tuesday. The Blokpost-4T system integrates a 400T ‘flying thermal imager’ quadcopter, he specified.

"Currently, the Russian army operates various optoelectronic equipment for gathering terrain data in any weather condition, including thermal imagers. However, a dilemma always exists for both optical and thermal imaging systems: either you have a large field of view or you need to provide a highly detailed image. "We believed that the integration of the ‘flying thermal imager’ into the ground-based surveillance system would help solve this dilemma unconventionally and quite elegantly," he said.

The long-range reconnaissance vehicle features a single system of image control and reception with its projection onto a joint monitor, the chief executive explained.

"The ground-based thermal imaging stations of the Blokpost-4T system help detect individuals at a distance of 800 meters and motor vehicles at a distance of 2,000 meters. The system’s inbuilt video analytics single out spotted objects on the screen to assist an operator who sends a drone to the designated area. "Spotted targets are identified by an unmanned thermal imaging system at a distance of up to six kilometers," he added.

"The system has been successfully tested," the chief executive said. "Presently, the first prototypes are being manufactured," he said.

The Blokpost-4T consists of ground-based thermal imaging cameras (from one to four) mounted on a tripod or any other platform with inbuilt target detection analytics and also of unmanned thermal imaging target identification, reconnaissance, and fire adjustment equipment.

The 400T drone is the first quadcopter with a domestic thermal imager. The drone is being employed in Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine.
 https://tass.com/defense/1591905

Posted by: Down South | Mar 21 2023 17:25 utc | 14

Italian PM Meloni is ready to lose the approval of the Italians for the sake of supporting Ukraine.

 Italian Prime Minister George Meloni announced her readiness to support Kyiv, despite the downgrade of her government, writes  Reuters agency.

"We will continue to do this because it is the right thing to do in terms of national values and interests," Meloni said, speaking in the Senate.
At the same time, as Reuters points out, the majority of Italians are already opposed to supporting Kyiv.

Thus, a poll in February showed that 45% of Italians were against sending weapons and only 34% were in favor.
Disagreement with Meloni's course was also noted in her political party, "Brothers of Italy." Thus, 47% of respondents from this party said that they were against the supply of weapons.

With such an electoral strategy, Meloni can only hope for the post of Ukrainian prime minister.

Posted by: Down South | Mar 21 2023 17:28 utc | 15

Using depleted uranium is not done by someone expecting to recapture the land. It is a declaration of defeat.

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 21 2023 17:28 utc | 16

Somebody tell Putin, napalm in the morning smells like VICTORY.

Posted by: Sum Ting Wong | Mar 21 2023 17:31 utc | 17

I'm not sure, but maybe the Ukrainian Bakhmut garrison is out of artillery rounds. If that's the case, and they're encircled, maybe there's no need for the Russians to keep pressing.

Could Russians just be waiting for them to surrender? If the reports that the AFU fighters in Bakhmut are now largely press-ganged youth and elderly are true, waiting for them to walk out hands in the air would be the most humane thing to do.

Posted by: Palm&Needle | Mar 21 2023 17:31 utc | 18

Time is on Russia's side while the Ukrainian military needs to show action and success to keep its 'western' support going.

One could disagree with details but the overall picture at this point is very clear -- Russia and China are playing a tag team game against the US, one fights militarily and the other economically/politically. Both complement each other's moves.

Nobody in the west, other than the consumers of the alternative media circuit, seem to have caught on.

Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Mar 21 2023 17:35 utc | 19

Thank you b.

Ukraine has demonstrated insufficient forces to hold the Line. Insufficient combat & maneuver capable tactical reserves & questionable sufficient strategic reserves.

Units have been drawn from the NW, N, S & SW to feed into the meat-grinder Bahkmut. Bahkmut itself does not need to be reduced by RF as its remnant shattered forces are isolated, mutually-unsupported & will soon collapse due no supplies of any kind, especially rations, potable water, medical supplies & ammunition of all kinds. Hence, not actually 'stalled' by RF, simply not worth further militarily unnecessary casualties aggressively pressing assaults re final reduction. Simply ground force close Reconnaissance to identify remaining strong-points & heavy weaponry for destruction by targeted ranged Fires & CAS/Air Strikes.

AFU attempted relief of Bahkmut is probable a forlorn hope & regardless, pointless re losses necessarily incurred to recover shattered remnants. Pyrrhic.

Focus shifted to creating same scenario in Avdviika re its severed main MSR, now threatened secondary minor MSRs. Sector tactical reserves to prevent loss of primary MSR & expanding double envelopment amounted to only 1,200-1,600 remnants, reconstituted/re-combined AFU regulars, a BN+. Wholly inadequate.

AFU demonstrates no ability to hold flanks of urban defense works, and no ability to mount prompt capable counter-attacks to recover lost flanks of Urban fortifications. No Urban fortification can avoid encirclement & reduction if flanks cannot be held or recovered promptly by combat capable maneuver forces.

Low grade AFU forces suitable only for static defense have negligible combat utility & do not constitute capable tactical reserves.

AFU has negligible, effectively non-extant, Operational or Tactical Air Defense Systems(ADS) outside politically sensitive urban cities, beyond FEBA.

Footage of RuAF strikes on AVdviika fortifications on Mar18'23 using medium & heavy precision guided glide bombs.

RF has Theater, Air & Operational Initiative & Dominance and is able to shift Operational focus (pressure) at will throughout Theater to force AFU to constantly merely 'react', constantly juggling insufficient, incapable forces in response ... dancing an exhausting jig, until collapse.

Was over ~6-8 months ago.

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 21 2023 17:35 utc | 20

I love the constant (not subtle at all) hints the Western shills keep dropping about the fabled "spring offensive" by Ukrostan. After all telling where and when you plan an offensive is common place by every serious military commander ever....said no one ever! So what is all that about? Who is the audience? At this point zelenky's mob is nothing but smoke and mirrors.

Posted by: nook | Mar 21 2023 17:36 utc | 21

To uranium ammunition
Why does nobody question why the Tommys supply their tanks with this ammunition?
Could one reason be that they can't supply enough "long ammo" or that these tanks can't fire that long ammo?
Or...is uranium ammo your ONLY chance to crack a T90 / T40?
.
Putin's reaction to this contamination of the civilian population should now be interesting...
What did he just announce again today????
.

Posted by: mo3 | Mar 21 2023 17:39 utc | 22

From what I understand Adviivka has been a major thorn in the side for Donetsk because of heavily entrenched artillery.
Clever to have not one but two encirclements, kinda forces the Ukrainian hand so to speak. A brief operational pause while side events go down (there are many) and then off again! For the UAF ‘rearming’ means assembling more targets, for the RF it means bringing more weapons to bear on said targets. Using DU to poison the land is criminal in the extreme. Lots of noise needs to be made about this.

Posted by: Chevrus | Mar 21 2023 17:39 utc | 23

@depleted uranium clm: waiting for the "fact checkers" in Western press stating that depleted uranium is "not as environmentally harmful as previously thought".

Posted by: xblob | Mar 21 2023 17:39 utc | 24

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 21 2023 17:28 utc | 16

Yep. This is a signal that "scorched earth" tactics are all that Zelensky's clown-car brigade have left.

But then again, they've been wasting precious artillery shells on civilians in Donbass for years, so this should not be a big surprise.

Posted by: Chris | Mar 21 2023 17:40 utc | 25

Translation:
Presumably: the American reconnaissance aircraft Boeing P-8 Poseidon was engaged in aiming drones at the military facilities of Dzhankoy.

https://twitter.com/Q0MT6pFmbVqynsM/status/1637912969840414721

Posted by: Oui | Mar 21 2023 17:41 utc | 26

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 21 2023 17:28 utc | 16
"Using depleted uranium is not done by someone expecting to recapture the land. It is a declaration of defeat."

It's usually done by someone expecting to fuck up the land. It's a declaration that the Dogs of War have been let loose.

Putin's & RGS response is going to be good, just wait for it!

Posted by: nathan in WA US | Mar 21 2023 17:45 utc | 27

Posted by: depleted uranium clm | Mar 21 2023 17:10 utc | 4

Without it, the L30A1 is incapable of penetrating Modern Russian armour, unless suicidally close ranges. It’s the reason they were considering a German smoothbore for the tanks LEP.

Posted by: Milites | Mar 21 2023 17:47 utc | 28

Bahkmut stalled, as I said it was before if anyone remembers, because ukraine moved in reinforcements, good quality troops apparently and stopped the russian pincers, russia then started to dig in to hold the lines and re equip.

Wagner has been vocal about interrupting enemy plans. Consequently there has been missle strikes at the each sides rear supply lines.

Ukraine has moved in reinforcements, ground pounders with the latest western infantry weapons. The pincer there will also stall now while Russia moves to hold and choke the garrison.

It's not glorious but it's worse for ukraine. Ultimately bombing donetsk won't be worth hold adviika. Bahkmut is finely balanced now, it will still be the higher goal for strategic position.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 21 2023 17:47 utc | 29

Posted by: nook | Mar 21 2023 17:36 utc | 21

So what is all that about? Who is the audience? At this point zelenky's mob is nothing but smoke and mirrors.

Posted by: Chris | Mar 21 2023 17:48 utc | 30

Dr. Asaf Duracovich, Georgetown Unversity Major Doug Rokke were both deeply involved in the second wave of investigations for Depleted Uranium 2000 plus. My friend Brian Terrell with others went to Basra, Iran in 1996 to listen to a pediatric oncologist and others involved trying to put together the wave of childhood leukemias, miscarriages and birth defects especially around Basra. Prof Souad N. Al-Azzawi was part of this. I have never been the same since hearing Brian talk about it that year in Des Moines Iowa.

Correlation is not causation, but the stifled studies in Vieques, Puerto Rico, Iraq and Serbia all are strongly indicative of the long lasting harm from mutagenic, teratogenic and carcinogenic depleted Ur and and any other actinides present. These particles from armour piercing rounds can be hundreds of nanometers to hundreds of micrometers large, with a positive charge dance in the air via Brownian motion. When ingested inside the body it is extremely damaging, the combination of amount of energy and the larger area of impact (compared to gamma or x-rays) is almost tailor made to impact DNA.

I have no idea what the RF is deciding about how to deal with Challenger tanks armed with DU rounds, but act they will.

Posted by: kramgort | Mar 21 2023 17:51 utc | 31

The shit show continues until it doesn't.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 21 2023 17:24 utc | 13

And that stupid bint stating the Brits are giving DU rounds to the Ukrainians.
It's fair to surmise that the shit show isn't stopping any time soon.
Escalation by imbeciles.

Posted by: jpc | Mar 21 2023 17:52 utc | 32

Quote "The UK will send “armour piercing rounds which contain depleted uranium” to Ukraine, for use with the tank squadron donated by the British army."
A 3rd rate country like UK dare to openly hit Russia and Russia just looks on that embolden the anglosaxon English sc-ums. Russia needs to man up and atleast annihilate M16 headquarter in London.

Posted by: Sam | Mar 21 2023 17:55 utc | 33

Sorry, DU post on Duriacovich, Rokke; posted wrong name, kramgort is the same as paxmark1. kind of like measure once, cut thrice.

Posted by: paxmark1 | Mar 21 2023 17:57 utc | 34

@ Neofeudalfuture | Mar 21 2023 17:47 utc | 29

Is that you Baghdad Bob ?

The double envelopment continues to extend and expand! The inner ring continues to contract. RF supply lines are myriad, short & secure. Your imagined 'good quality' troops(shattered remnants) are going to continue the fight using their latest western infantry weapons as clubs due no ammunition, whilst ever weaker physical capacity from malnutrition & dehydration, whilst under the stress of relentless artillery, mortar, rocket, Attack Helo & Air Strikes ? Bahkmut is farcked.

Perhaps consider switching to non alcoholic beverages at the bar.

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 21 2023 17:59 utc | 35

Good analysis and context, b.

The boiling frogs continue apace as Crimea is increasingly targeted, and red-line arms are placed on the battlefield. The provocation by the empire of lies knows no evil.

Perhaps the good news is the USA huffs and puffs as it sinks beneath the waves of its own PR.

Posted by: gottlieb | Mar 21 2023 18:01 utc | 36

Humble thank you’s to everyone’s responses about the cruise missile attacks on Crimea.

Posted by: Jose Garcia | Mar 21 2023 18:01 utc | 37

Kramgort no. 31

Robert Fisk posted photos of children in Iraq born with defects caused by DU. They were unimaginable. I believe that website has been taken down now.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Mar 21 2023 18:03 utc | 38

Spengler reports on a recent symposium sponsored by Chatham House:

"Overwhelmingly, the sentiment of participants leaned towards escalation in the form of providing additional weapons to Ukraine. One prominent analyst proposed the formation of a “foreign legion” of fighters from other countries to supplement Ukraine’s shrinking pool of trained manpower. The great majority of participants favored risking everything for absolute victory over Russia."

https://asiatimes.com/2023/03/why-ukraine-may-embrace-chinas-peace-plan/

Posted by: jayc | Mar 21 2023 18:08 utc | 39

RE: Depleted uranium

I asked the MOD through a FOI request (about 10 years ago) about the UK armed forces use of DU ammunition and was told it was not in use by UK army. They didn't mention that they had kept it all and presumably stockpiled it instead. Looks like they have found a good way to cheaply dispose of it now.

Posted by: irish al | Mar 21 2023 18:11 utc | 40

Posted by: jayc | Mar 21 2023 18:08 utc | 39

Thank you for that link. It confirms something that many of us suspected, all along:

The entire army that NATO trained between 2014 and 2022 in preparation for a Russian attack is dead, and recruits are being thrown into battle lines with three weeks of training.

Also notable is that one of the participants mentioned raising a foreign army of volunteers when Ukraine literally runs out of conscriptable boys and old men.

This should be wargamed out a bit here in the bar, IMO. My only thought is they will not find more than a single platoon from the sissies in W. Europe. They're mainly good for words, not action.

They would have to find some head-choppers from the ME, but even that now looks highly unlikely due to the Chinese sponsored rapprochement between the Saudis and Iran. I doubt that Riyadh or Istanbul will play ball with that.

So where would they find these foreigners willing to die on the steppes for western whoremongers?

Posted by: Chris | Mar 21 2023 18:19 utc | 41

Reports of multiple missile strikes on targets throughout Odessa including an airfield, from where the drone attacks on Crimea were launched.

&

Translated:

ПЕРЕХВАТ (Z) 'Interception (Z)', Telegram, Browse-able Open(Public)- Photo images, 1m52s Oz News segment.

🇦🇺🏴‍☠️The enemy uses Australian cardboard drones at the front

Every month, the Australian company SYPAQ supplies Kiev with about 100 cardboard UAVs. The AFU use them to deliver ammunition and medicines to the front line, as well as for reconnaissance. Drones can also drop small explosive devices.

▪️UAVs are delivered to Ukraine in the form of flat sheets of heavy-duty cardboard, from which you can quickly and easily assemble aircraft. To prevent the cardboard from getting wet from rain and snow, it is coated with wax.

▪️SYPAQ drones can be launched manually or with a catapult. Their carrying capacity, depending on the model, is from 3 to 5 kg. UAVs can stay in the air for up to three hours and cover distances from 40 to 120 km.

▪️The Australian newspaper writes that UAVs have already made 60 sorties.

Hundreds of drones and 60 sorties on the Ukrainian front ? Khokhols use 10 drones, and the rest are sold or heat potbelly stoves with them?😂.

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 21 2023 18:22 utc | 42

https://www.mk.ru/politics/2023/03/21/eksperty-poyasnili-osobennosti-snaryadov-s-obednennym-uranom.html

Experts explained the features of shells with depleted uranium

Experts explained what is the peculiarity of the shells with depleted uranium for the Abrams and Leopard tanks. They noted that these munitions do have high toxicity and carcinogenicity, but lower radioactivity compared to a dirty bomb.

Vasily Kashin, head of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, recalled that Abrams tanks have armor-piercing sub-caliber shells with depleted uranium cores. In addition, depleted uranium is also used in some aircraft munitions in the United States. The scientist noted that the use of such ammunition can be considered a step towards escalation. According to him, at one time, training firing of similar ammunition by American aircraft in Okinawa caused protests from the local population due to environmental damage.

He added that American veterans have also complained of health problems from coming into contact with such munitions. But comparing them to a "dirty bomb" is wrong.

Kashin also explained that the use of such shells can increase armor-piercing power and hit a modern tank.

In turn, expert Alexander Khramchikhin said that depleted uranium shells are harmful in toxicity and carcinogenicity, but not in radioactivity, like a dirty bomb.

And the head of the department of political science and sociology of the PRUE. G.V. Plekhanov Alexander Koshkin stated that even if a depleted uranium projectile does not penetrate armor, uranium dust still poses a threat to the crew. He called on the world community to pay attention to this and demand the cessation of such supplies.

Earlier, the head of the Russian delegation at the talks in Vienna on military security and arms control, Konstantin Gavrilov, said that Moscow would consider the supply of such ammunition as the use of "dirty nuclear bombs with all the ensuing consequences."

Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Mar 21 2023 18:23 utc | 43

Posted by: depleted uranium clm | Mar 21 2023 17:10 utc | 4

To preempt the "red line" trolls: There is one problem with the red lines that the imperialists keep crossing. and it is that Russia does not really announce the "punishment" before or after the transgression. Besides, certain crimes, like the dirty-bomb du ammunition deserve to be punished repeatedly, until the perpetrator’s ability to commit it is taken away, so there is no 1:1 correspondence, except maybe for those thinking of politics as chess, 1D chess. So, to all those mocking the Russian (and Chinese) redlines, get a drink and kickback while you can afford it; nails in a coffin are indistinguishable

Posted by: SlowDL | Mar 21 2023 18:23 utc | 44

On the DU issue, Sputnik's report contains this key highlighted section, which must be read in relation to Putin's comment:

"'I would like to note in this regard that if all this happens, then Russia will be forced to react accordingly - I mean that the Collective West is already starting to use weapons with a nuclear component,' Putin added." [My Emphasis]

"While Moscow has repeatedly warned about the creeping danger of some kind of nuclear exchange as a result of NATO's support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, Western governments and media have tried to spin such warnings as being threats about the use of nuclear weapons. Putin has since made it explicitly clear that Moscow intends to maintain its no-first-use policy regarding nuclear weapons."

What the introduction/use of DU munitions does is make NATO the first user of nuclear weaponry thus opening the door for Russia's use according to its doctrine. And that's the very point Putin and other Russians are making to NATO.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 21 2023 18:27 utc | 45

Has the MOD commented on the rather large attack that took place on the Novomoskavsk rail yard, they started the attack Friday night into Sat morning, one explosion was felt all over the Oblast.......warehouse, munitions, equipment and vehicles were being stored there, might explain the Bakhmut pause.... warnews247.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 21 2023 18:28 utc | 46

kramgort | Mar 21 2023 17:51 utc | 31

Use of depleted uranium is a red line drawn by Putin when the subject first occurred a few months ago. It would be the first act of war involving radioactive material - a dirty bomb, as the Russians classified it. It would bring us to the doorstep of nuclear war. Considering the health effects you pointed out, I would not blame Putin if he were to escalate in response and target UK assets or territory.

Posted by: grunzt | Mar 21 2023 18:36 utc | 47

So where would they find these foreigners willing to die on the steppes for western whoremongers?

Posted by: Chris | Mar 21 2023 18:19 utc | 41

My suggestion is americans, australians and israelis. Send millions of them and don't give them weapons. Then gift their lands back to the natives they were stolen from.

Also send every western politician who's been involved, plus all the skinhead finns, poles, balts etc. who have been bleating for this war.

They'll be useful for the first time in their lives, making the good black soil of Ukraine richer.

Posted by: Mike | Mar 21 2023 18:39 utc | 48

THERE WILL BE NO UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE. NOT IN ARTYOMOVSK.NOT ANYWHERE. NOT IN THE SPRING, NOT IN THE SUMMER.
IT'S ALL BLUFF.

Posted by: Anton Gorbatow | Mar 21 2023 18:41 utc | 49

Posted by: Mike | Mar 21 2023 18:39 utc | 48

An excellent suggestion. I may, however, overlooked the obvious answer to my question of who would be stupid enough to volunteer to be slaughtered for the likes of Zelensky or brain-damage Joe:

The Poles.

Posted by: Chris | Mar 21 2023 18:42 utc | 50

thanks b and @ 42 outraged...

Posted by: james | Mar 21 2023 18:43 utc | 51

yeah -it will be the polish that go in next... that is a likely scenario... nato is all over poland at present..

Posted by: james | Mar 21 2023 18:44 utc | 52

Scott Ritter said that once Avdeevka falls, the Ukrainian defense will unravel quickly.
The Ukrainians are about to get skullfucked.

Posted by: Anton Gorbatow | Mar 21 2023 18:44 utc | 53

HIMARS M30A1 fragmentation rounds have been used against Russian forces...180,000 plus tungsten ball bearings air burst fuse. I think making a big deal out of the DU tank rounds will just cause sympathy from the global South..in this current environmental concern trend....bear in mind most of the aerosolized uranium isotopes floating around Iraq are from the 25mm bushmaster automatic cannon....installed on he Bradley's and LAV....I think once the methamphetamine and ammo stops making it into Bahkmut the garrison holed up will give up. There are multiple cauldrons forming along the entire front... I think Russia has the operational flexibility to exploit any weakness or opportunity that may present itself. Another good rule of thumb is not to interrupt an adversary that is making a mistake. With Ukrainian sources spouting off about operational plans of phantom forces and spring offensives it is safe to say it's all bullshit for Western public consumption....the west does not like losers. True casualties and DU weapons tells me the west has resigned to lose Ukraine and their scorched earth will be Russia being stuck with a massive rebuilding task as well as a million dead or injured Ukrainian servicemen and subsequent shattered families being incorporated into the federation. Scott Ritter had some interesting ideas on Xi arriving in Moscow...it revolves around a peace plan proposal already probably on Zelensky's desk

Posted by: Joe | Mar 21 2023 18:58 utc | 54

@ Anton Gorbatow | Mar 21 2023 18:44 utc | 53

AFU are proven incapable of holding the current Contact Line, inclusive of massive layered, interlocking & mutually supporting major hardened fortifications developed & enhanced over preceding 9 years. AFU are unlikely to be even able to conduct an orderly withdrawal without units being routed, to their third & final considerably weaker & hasty defensive Line.

Even if AFU managed to do so, they will be even less combat capable, with fewer combat effective remaining formations, ever diminishing materiel & logistical supplies/sustainment, in modest static defense works, with lower morale, than they are already. All whilst continuing to suffer unsustainable disadvantageous attritional losses, both manpower & arms.

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 21 2023 19:01 utc | 55

DU ammunition is manufactured from waste product from nuclear power stations and is valued Fitbit’s high density which petmits it to penetrate armour.

It is however a criminal act to use such a product and downright evil after what it did in Serbia and Iraq. Destroying lives through deforming babies and their mothers is satanic.

This war and the behaviour of Western dictatorial regimes has revealed the contempt they have for human life. None of this was necessary and created by evil

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Mar 21 2023 19:08 utc | 56

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Mar 21 2023 19:08 utc | 56

And what is amazing is that there is so little protest in the West. Those who made so much noise during the Iraq War are largely silent. I am so ashamed to be a British citizen.

Posted by: Technophobe | Mar 21 2023 19:12 utc | 57

@Anton Gorbatow, #53:

So, you're implying that the Chinese war simulation predicting the SMO will conclude by the coming Summer (prompting China's nascent Peace Proposal) is on target?

Let's hope so.

@Chris, #41:

So where would they find these foreigners willing to die on the steppes for western whoremongers?

Well, for a while the Auzzies seem eager to kiss Sammy's ass every which way they could. Perhaps Oz would be the next source of manpower. It's perfect: they ain't NATO; they are well trained on western weaponry; they are full of themselves and itching to do killings. Only question is whether they are indeed so imbecile as to bite.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Mar 21 2023 19:12 utc | 58

@Outraged | 20

"AFU demonstrates no ability to hold flanks of urban defense works, and no ability to mount prompt capable counter-attacks to recover lost flanks of Urban fortifications. No Urban fortification can avoid encirclement & reduction if flanks cannot be held or recovered promptly by combat capable maneuver forces.

Low grade AFU forces suitable only for static defense have negligible combat utility & do not constitute capable tactical reserves."

I found your comment useful, to the point and a good concise summary of the AFU's problem.

I've gone back and forth wondering why the Russians don't close the pocket in Bakhmut. There were some comments today on MOA repeating the idea that they don't close the pocket as a matter of tactical choice. That argument is resonating with me more and more. The especially aligns with the Russian desire to minimize manpower losses and husband their own manpower resources.

Military Summary channel I think made a good argument last night that the increased activity around Bakhmut, Avdeevka and Ugladar are all designed to face the AFU with a dilemma: Where to pull reserves from, who to rescue ? I dont always agree with Dima, but find hes worth listening to.

Posted by: Dan Farrand | Mar 21 2023 19:14 utc | 59

“I know what awaits us. As soon as Vladimir Putin has done his work in Seversk, Bakhmut and Soledar, after reaching the second line Slaviansk-Kramatorsk-Avdeevka, he will come up with a proposal. And if they [the West] don’t accept it, – and they won’t – all hell will break loose.” – Aleksandar Vucic, President of Serbia

Posted by: Otto | Mar 21 2023 17:07 utc | 2

(Worth reposting - Vucić quote is from a couple of months ago.)

Posted by: Exile | Mar 21 2023 19:17 utc | 60

A pedantic note on “Avdiivka”: every native resident of the town calls it Avdeevka (pronounced Avdeyevka).

Posted by: S | Mar 21 2023 19:20 utc | 61

@depleted uranium clm: waiting for the "fact checkers" in Western press stating that depleted uranium is "not as environmentally harmful as previously thought".

Posted by: xblob | Mar 21 2023 17:39 utc | 24

It is probably more harmful in the long run than an air burst nuke. The latter does not leave all that much residual radiation and the area is safe quite soon after as what nuclides are released decay fast. Meanwhile DU remains as a dispersed dust all over the environment, people inhale it and it remains inside them for a very long time as it is barely cleared from the body.

Using depleted uranium is not done by someone expecting to recapture the land. It is a declaration of defeat.

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 21 2023 17:28 utc | 16

Yes, indeed.

Also, I keep reminding people about this but for some reason it does not catch on -- right now there is barely any war in Ukraine. Only around Kupyansk.

All other heavy intensity fighting is on constitutionally Russian land.

People seem to forget that. Of course the actions of the Russian government don't help at all, but those are the historic and now legal realities. And the historic reality is also that it is still Russian land all the way to much much further West, so even if DU is used only when (hopefully) fighting moves towards Kiev, Dnepropetrovsk, and on the right bank of the river, it will still be the same kind of violation of Russian lands.

Which will be poisoned unless someone in the Kremlin finally finds a pair of balls and does something to stop it.

P.S. Something else related is one of the fourteen memorandums on cooperation that were signed between Russia and China today:

12. A comprehensive program of long-term cooperation in the field of fast neutron reactors and closing the nuclear fuel cycle between the State Atomic Energy Corporation "Rosatom" and the Atomic Energy Agency of the People's Republic of China.

Aside from all the nasty health effects of DU, it is also outright criminal to be wasting valuable potential fuel by blowing it up and scattering it over the landscape.

Quietly, in the background, while in the EU and the US they have been wasting their resources on "green transition" schemes that rely entirely on wind and solar (always fundamentally non-viable due to basic physics reasons) while excluding nuclear from the range of options, Russians have been working on breeder reactors and now they have the BN-800 reactor operational in the Beloyarsk NPP, a BN-1200 is under development too, and then there is the BREST-300 in Tomsk, which is a different type of technology altogether (lead-cooled vs. sodium-cooled).

The Chinese are also investing in that area and you see that now they will join forces. Indians too -- they happen to have a lot of thorium through a weird geological accident.

Meanwhile the West is far behind in that field, and there is still very little investment in it.

It quite symbolical in fact that it decided that the best use for its 238U stockpiles is in munitions to contaminate the Middle East and Yugoslavia...

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 21 2023 19:22 utc | 62

A witness story that offers insight into the Russian soul, for whom no such thing as 'pure coincidence' exists.
https://www.nsk.kp.ru/daily/27479/4736784/

“Bro, stay close”: the guy in the NWO met the namesake of the deceased brother and saved his life
A Siberian met the namesake of his deceased brother in the NMD and saved his life

Two namesake volunteers - Dmitry Mayer and Andrey Mayer - met during a special operation. 44-year-old Dmitry considered this a sign, because a few years ago his younger brother Andrei Mayer died of oncology. And his full namesake, with whom Dmitry ended up in the same battalion, painfully resembled the “younger Andryukha”. We started talking, but it turned out that they have so much in common, even their wives have the same name - Nastya. Both Mayers were injured, both were in the hospital. About the fantastic coincidence and kinship of souls - in the material KP-Novosibirsk.

"BURNT FROM ONCOLOGY IN A YEAR"

Dmitry Mayer is 44 years old, was born in the small village of Redkaya Dubrava in the Altai Territory. At the age of 20, he began boxing and competed.

- When I grew up, I began to train guys, then I had my own small security company, prepared SOBR for competitions. I always wanted to connect my life with the army, but everything beat around the bush, - Dmitry Mayer shared with KP-Novosibirsk.

Dima had a brother Andrei, 6 years younger. The guys were friendly, always supported each other, and then trouble came to the family. It is still hard for Dmitry to remember that time:

- When my brother was 32 years old, he began to go to hospitals. I do not want to remember all these diagnoses. They will only say that at first he was treated for one, and then they realized that he had to grab onto another. Andrei's cancer was already at a serious stage. They took me to Novosibirsk for chemotherapy. He didn't look like himself after her. Burned out within a year. My brother passed away when he was 33 years old.

TWO MAYERS

Then, 6 years ago, Dmitry did not know that 300 kilometers from his village - in the city of Iskitim near Novosibirsk - lives his brother's namesake - Andrey Mayer. Andrei's family moved to Russia from Kazakhstan. The guy was 16 at the time. He decided to connect his life with "polite people" after completing military service.

- I served 8 years on a contract in intelligence in Tajikistan. He was also a mountain training instructor. I was trained on Elbrus, - 34-year-old Andrey Mayer told KP-Novosibirsk.

The two Mayers met on a sting operation. Dmitry and Andrei - each for their own reason - decided that they needed to go to the war zone as volunteers in May 2022.

- First I went to special training courses in Barnaul. He studied there for a month, and in May he flew to Grozny, to the Akhmat battalion. I think that it should be useful for society and the country at such a time. I am a man, I have to protect, - Dmitry is sure. - My relatives did not know until recently that I had gone there.

At the same time, Andrei also went to Chechnya. Also in Akhmat.

- All my friends are there. How could I be at home when WOO started? I went as a volunteer, I also didn’t tell my relatives where I was going, I didn’t worry about the details, - Andrey admitted to KP-Novosibirsk.

"WHO HERE IS MYER?"

Dmitry and Andrei clashed at a training center in Chechnya. There was a formation on the parade ground, the names of the fighters were called.

- It was an interesting situation. I heard my first and last name. And then Andrei leaned out and asked: “Who is Mayer here?” I responded, he says: “I am also Mayer,” Dmitry recalls. - It turned out that we are almost countrymen. I am from the Altai Territory, he is from the Novosibirsk Region.

After the formation, the Siberians talked, Dmitry told about his younger brother: “Wow, they called you like that.” We started to communicate.

- Already in the process it turned out that not only the same surname is the same: we are like brothers. For example, Dima, like me, loves fish. I also liked his shoes, and later it turned out that he liked mine too. We even have wives named the same - Nastya. Such non-random accidents, - Andrey Mayer argues.

Dmitry also felt that all this was not accidental:

- Usually fighting is taken away, but here they gave it away. CBO, you can say, returned my brother to me. I called Andrey to my department, to the special forces. So we became even closer, protected each other. I remember, we are going somewhere, Andrey says to me: “Bro, don’t go ahead. Be near". This is such communication - like family.

11 PER 100 NAZIS

Andrei received his first wound a couple of weeks after he arrived in the NWO zone. His regiment was stationed in Rubezhnoye, and worked a little further, in Shchedrishchevo. On that ill-fated day, they worked in different groups.

- There were three groups of us. We went in on the right, we went in on the left, and my group was in the middle, - Andrei slowly describes the events of that day. - We entered the territory of the village, there was a private sector across the street. First they noticed a machine gunner, and then across the street - more than a hundred Nazis, and there were only 11 of us. I remember leaving the house, and immediately a mine flies to my feet. I was thrown back 3 meters. Just shrapnel slashed.

Dmitry immediately rushed to save his named brother. Together with another colleague, he carried the wounded man out from under the fire, dragged him to the other side, across the river.

- We constantly talked with him, did not let him lose consciousness. They brought Andrey to the car, sent him to the hospital, - says Dmitry. “And then I got hurt.”

"I GOT A BROTHER"

Once in different hospitals, Dmitry and Andrey wrote messages to each other, found out how things were going. There was no way to see each other.

- I was worried about Dima while he was in the hospital. We really became brothers. Yes, we all became like brothers there, ”Andrey believes. - Then we accidentally crossed paths in Mineralnye Vody at the train station. They didn't even get to say anything to each other. They just hugged. He told his relatives about Dima, of course. Said I had a brother.

Dmitry also told his mother and father about this coincidence. Andrei met the relatives of the commander on the transfer of Andrei Malakhov. He came with flowers, Dima's mother could not hold back her tears.

- Fate gave us another son. Even if not by blood, but still, - the woman rejoiced.

In the future, Andrey is going to visit the village of his named brother. He wants to come to visit his mother and be sure to visit the grave of his namesake in order to honor his memory.

Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Mar 21 2023 19:26 utc | 63

Criptyc sound message from Prigozhin congratulating Akhmat and the 2d Army Corps, he does not specify the location, probably it is around Seversk. Vladlen Tatarsky is not so sure about the Avdeevka situation even though he says that some progress has been made.

https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/2903

Posted by: S | Mar 21 2023 19:20 utc | 61

Concerning the ukrainization of toponyms, it seems everybody depends on google maps and translators, and we know whose side google is playing. Yes, it scratch my ears like sand paper, Avdeevka, Kiev, Kharkov, the list is long, but the correct names will be back.

Posted by: Paco | Mar 21 2023 19:27 utc | 64

A pedantic note on “Avdiivka”: every native resident of the town calls it Avdeevka (pronounced Avdeyevka).

Posted by: S | Mar 21 2023 19:20 utc | 61

Yes, of course, people should stop butchering names by following the Ukrainian pattern of savage rape of language and tradition.

It's not "-ivka", it "-ovka".

It's not "-iivka", it "-eevka".

It's not "-iv", but "-ov"

And so on.

And it's absolutely not "Zaporizhzhia", as the most absurd example, it's "Zaporozhye".

P.S. I've noticed that Google has eliminated the traditional names from the search engine -- if you search for the original name, it will either return no result or will send you to some place with the same name in Russia...

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 21 2023 19:27 utc | 65

Concerning the ukrainization of toponyms, it seems everybody depends on google maps and translators, and we know whose side google is playing. Yes, it scratch my ears like sand paper, Avdeevka, Kiev, Kharkov, the list is long, but the correct names will be back.

Posted by: Paco | Mar 21 2023 19:27 utc | 64

I recall Ukrainians themselves were using proper names until quite recently.

It was only after the Banderites fully took over that the real linguistic atrocities began.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 21 2023 19:31 utc | 66

... (TG) “But all this is possible only in one case. If the air defense of Ukraine is suppressed.”
...
Posted by: Down South | Mar 21 2023 17:17 utc | 10

Bombs are massive and relatively cheap but bombers are not. They are an economical solution only so long as the risk to the aircraft & crew is low. Ukraine cannot be cleared of MANPADs or the risk of working AD systems held in reserve to drain RF’s finite stock of aircraft. Also, blowing everything up isn’t likely to be RF’s strategy at any point.

Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 21 2023 19:32 utc | 67

@ shadowbanned | Mar 21 2023 19:22 utc | 62

It quite symbolical in fact that it decided that the best use for its 238U stockpiles is in munitions to contaminate the Middle East and Yugoslavia..

Well, aside that Ukraine is/will produce food - grain mostly and export it mostly to EU - it seems it is yet another 'sepuku' from the Combined West - but, I think that British might pay really heavy price for that.

I would expect, if DU ammo is confirmed, for a really nasty and harsh response by RF. Let us see what happens.

Posted by: whirlX | Mar 21 2023 19:32 utc | 68

That British Defence Person who announced that Challenger tanks will use depleted Uranium shells has just ensured that the crew of a Challenger in Ukraine won’t last five minutes on the battlefield. They will be targeted and destroyed as the absolute highest priority.

Goldie was obviously absent when the brains were being handed out.

Training Challenger crews needs to prioritise the writing of a legally valid Will.

Posted by: CitizenSmith | Mar 21 2023 19:33 utc | 69

It seems to me that b's mention of the current number of civilians still huddling in Avdeyevka is the first reference to civilians at the frontline since the battle for Mariupol. Though I cannot say that I followed news very rigorously, I think I would not have missed any serious discussion about the fate of civilians in towns and villages along the frontline. Are there any civilians left in Bakhmut? What about other places? Is Russia going to be accused of kidnapping all those civilians who found refuge in Russia?

Posted by: Pagan | Mar 21 2023 19:38 utc | 70

@ Dan Farrand | Mar 21 2023 19:14 utc | 59

You are most welcome. Sometimes difficult to succinctly communicate concepts that are assimilated, second nature/assumed.

Low grade AFU forces suitable only for static defense have negligible combat utility & do not constitute capable tactical reserves."

Should have added: Hence ineffective in successfully launching & executing necessary prompt local counter-attacks without additional heavy supporting arms.

RF does not close the pockets due military dictum of 'Deadly vs Dangerous ground'. As well as laying lures for ill-considered reinforcement. Also much easier, less costly, to destroy reinforcements/logistical supplies/wounded/arms during ingress/egress on exposed vehicles, as well as to inflict casualties on routed troops fleeing on foot over open ground under Fire Control, sans vehicles & heavy weapons.

As Hermit posted succinctly in an expansive post clarifying & distilling the deeper essence, in March 12, 2023, Ukraine Open Thread 2023-60:

Sun Tzu said, in The Art of War, 7. MANEUVERING wrote,

When you surround an army, leave an outlet free.

This does not mean that the enemy is to be allowed to escape. The object, as Tu Mu puts it, is "to make him believe that there is a road to safety, and thus prevent his fighting with the courage of despair." Tu Mu adds pleasantly: "After that, you may crush him."

Hermit | Mar 14 2023 9:43 utc | 318

Cheers.

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 21 2023 19:45 utc | 71

I love the constant (not subtle at all) hints the Western shills keep dropping about the fabled "spring offensive" by Ukrostan. After all telling where and when you plan an offensive is common place by every serious military commander ever....said no one ever! So what is all that about? Who is the audience? At this point zelenky's mob is nothing but smoke and mirrors.

Posted by: nook | Mar 21 2023 17:36 utc | 21

Although I'm no tactician, I wonder if it's about planting seeds of doubt for Russian commanders. Most likely you're correct and we're dealing with the rantings of a Ukrainian supporter in denial.

THERE WILL BE NO UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE. NOT IN ARTYOMOVSK.NOT ANYWHERE. NOT IN THE SPRING, NOT IN THE SUMMER.
IT'S ALL BLUFF.

Posted by: Anton Gorbatow | Mar 21 2023 18:41 utc | 49

Does Polish / NATO forces wearing Ukrainian uniforms count as a "Ukrainian" counteroffensive?

Posted by: Ian2 | Mar 21 2023 19:46 utc | 72

Just to weigh in here. Putin & Xi play 'bad cop'/'good cop' and preach peace. Wink, wink. How many Russian military engineers will be getting raises in yuan? The EU, e.g. France is going to make all citizens work an extra two years of their lives to supply ammo to Ukraine for as long as it takes. So 1,00,000 Nato shells will be met by 10,000,000 Russian shells. That should speed up a war of attrition. The US preaches: "If No War, Then No Peace..", which resonates all over the world. Meanwhile, since Ukraine, unfortunately for the Ukranians, is a sideshow; and no one has figured out that the Western fianancial system keeps shooting itself in the feet. What drug lord, arms merchant, banana republic dictator, or wealthy oil man is going to keep his or her money in a reliable and neutral Swiss bank when that money can be seized or devealued with a key stroke. Woosh...that's the sound of dollars and euros leaving US, British, & EU banks for new destinations. If in the'West' just hope it's not done a coordinated manner.

Posted by: TMartin | Mar 21 2023 19:47 utc | 73

Hi guys, new barfly here. Cheers everybody!
One of the Romanian Telegram channels I follow which is usually well informed posted today something intriguing, see below. I don't know what to make of it, maybe somebody here can shed some light on it.

"The Ukrainians have concentrated in Zapoija about 50,000 soldiers, over 1,000 tanks and mortars of Western manufacture. The Ukrainians' key target is Melitopol, its conquest cutting off Russia's land access to Crimea and posing great strategic challenges. So far it is not known what strategy the Russians will adopt, although it is known that they are outnumbered by the Ukrainians.

Reports on the ground speak of reconnaissance and testing of the capabilities of Western-type adversaries that the AFU has initiated on the southern front. These consist of harassment actions carried out by small units of a few armoured units (maximum 20) "trying the sea with their finger".

The choice of Zaporoje is not accidental, it was made because from there attacks could be built up both south and east. As you well know, the algorithms running the Ukrainian offensive prefer quick moves, in which they effectively drown the Russian machine guns, flooding them with cannon fodder at any cost. That's how Herson was won, that's how Leman was won, etc. It remains to be seen whether this time the confrontations will play out the same way.

I have one more observation to make, namely that neither side is willing to back down even an inch. Those on the ground are talking about over 1 000 deaths a day, the distribution of which is extremely unclear. Despite the enormous losses, the fighting continues and grows stronger. We are likely to see full-scale war in the coming period!"

I find it difficult to believe what the guy says but as I said he is usually well-informed and not an Ukraine fan at all so I'm sure this is not propaganda but his genuine opinion.
What do you think?

Posted by: evm | Mar 21 2023 19:49 utc | 74

Regarding the use of epleted uranium (DU) armaments, Russia could consider filing a First Impressions War Crime and Crimes against Humanity a First Impressions Law suit with International Criminal Court (ICC). To my knowledge the ICC has not made a determination on the use of DU armaments either as a war crime or a crime against humanity. The case could not only be filed against Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, but all UK and USA Presidents that have used DU armaments in war. The crimes against humanity would allow past uses to be considered, so not only Ukraine but Iraq, Serbia, and maybe Afghanistan and others. If Gulf War Illness is associated with DU armaments then US military personnel and possibly families would be victims.

Not certain if Russia would have to be a party to actual legal action. Victims and potential victim perhaps could do it alone.

Would need to work fast to have near term impact though, but maybe someone has already done alot of the footwork on it.

Not an attorney or anything but if taking kids out of range of weapons' fire is considered a war crime the use of DU armaments should be argued because it is the cause of a danger that cannot be escaped.

Just sayin

Posted by: Jerr | Mar 21 2023 19:49 utc | 75

Just how important it is for US/NATO to keep Bakhmut and Avdeevka is astonishing. If Russia takes over the two Ukronazi strongholds, then we don't need to wait too long to see the most serious stock market crash happen across western capitals followed by speedy death of the petrodollar. The west is now run by a bunch of idiots. Uk's brainless announcement about sending depleted uranium ammunition is one of their latest masterpiece.

Posted by: maskazer | Mar 21 2023 19:50 utc | 76

🇦🇺🏴‍☠️The enemy uses Australian cardboard drones at the front ...

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 21 2023 18:22 utc | 42

An interesting novelty but there is corrugated plastic board used by RC hobbyists so cardboard might be a false economy in a drone that also needs a battery, motor, propeller, servos, autopilot, optional camera & communications, all of vastly greater cost than the airframe material.

And, as you point out, it’s Ukraine, so half of everything falls victim to whatever is the closest analogous fate to being pimped out or trafficked.

Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 21 2023 19:52 utc | 77

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 21 2023 20:02 utc | 78

yeah they are still kind of nervous regarding the golden horde and their assimilation into the russian empire ,)

Posted by: Macpott | Mar 21 2023 20:04 utc | 78

@75 jerr

those are great points

Posted by: pick | Mar 21 2023 20:08 utc | 79

DU is, in my view, more destructive in the long run than phosgene or mustard gas or other gas weapons banned after WW 1; the former poison the land for generations while the latter really only kill in the short term. Even the German Nazis, faced with impending total defeat, did not resort to poison gas. In light of that fact, it's not hyperbole to esteem the Kiev Nazis and their Nazi-hugging backers in Washington and London as morally inferior, at least in this respect, to the goosestepping lunatics in Berlin in the mid-1940s.

Posted by: Jack Gordon | Mar 21 2023 20:08 utc | 80

Posted by: Chris | Mar 21 2023 18:19 utc | 41

If one wants to gather "volunteers" from Nato. Well, first of all, those who were "brave" already went there. A lot of them have left there as the front lines became static and saturated with artillery and air power, which dramatically increases the kill ratio (in advantage for Russians, that is). UAF has lost tons and tons more artillery and counter radars and other long range weaponry. Meaning, on general level, fire support ratio (guns per area or per soldier) is a lot worse. The "volunteers" with a minimal functioning network of brain cells packed up and left.

The scale of war requires much larger actions, which can't be concealed easily to recruit volunteers. I'm sure it's being done among, especially east Europe Nato countries like Poland, which could theoretically provide several ten thousands, there could be thousands more from Czech, UK, USA and ANZAC. But really the limits will come quite quickly. Maybe they can have 50k or even 100k or something like that, but it won't mean much in grand scheme of things.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 21 2023 20:08 utc | 81

@evm | Mar 21 2023 19:49 utc | 74

Don't see how they could possible have "over 1k tanks" in fighting order. Maybe 1k 'military' vehicles in total including some tanks. There is lots of buzz about the proposed offensive. Moving south from Zaporozhye is one obvious possibility that has been widely discussed. We will see...

Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 21 2023 20:11 utc | 82

Regarding the use of epleted uranium (DU) armaments, Russia could consider filing a First Impressions War Crime and Crimes against Humanity a First Impressions Law suit with International Criminal Court (ICC). To my knowledge the ICC has not made a determination on the use of DU armaments either as a war crime or a crime against humanity. The case could not only be filed against Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, but all UK and USA Presidents that have used DU armaments in war. The crimes against humanity would allow past uses to be considered, so not only Ukraine but Iraq, Serbia, and maybe Afghanistan and others. If Gulf War Illness is associated with DU armaments then US military personnel and possibly families would be victims.

Posted by: Jerr | Mar 21 2023 19:49 utc | 75

RU does not recognize the authority of the ICC.

And the ICC just issued an arrest warrant on Putin.

So how do you see RU filing a suit there?

There are two, perhaps three big questions here:

1) Will the US launch everything if the UK is erased off the map?

2/3) Does RU have the means to destroy the two or three UK SSBNs that are out at sea? If not, can RU reliably shoot down a salvo of 32-48 SLBMs?

If the answers are No and Yes (and I have seen high ranking Russian military figures claiming so), then just do it. The world will be a better place without the UK -- no other state in history has brought more death, destruction and misery onto the world.

But if the answers are different, then this will be just another mockery of a red line.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 21 2023 20:11 utc | 83

@shadowbanned | Mar 21 2023 20:11 utc | 84

Typical armchair BS.

Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 21 2023 20:14 utc | 84

@Fake Norwegian | Mar 21 2023 20:02 utc | 78

Please show this incompetent impostor the door.

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 21 2023 20:17 utc | 85

Imo Russia sees victory in Bakhmut as inevitable, but they are wary of the expected Ukrainian counterattack getting lucky in some areas. Prudence might dictate that time and effort go into constructing defenses that the AFU would have to impale itself on so as to get at the Russian forces that are poised to roll up the remaining defenders in Bakhmut.

Once sufficient defenses are in place then Russia can goad the AFU to try their luck against them. As the Russian forces start gaining more of Bakhmut once again, there will be an expectation that Ukraine will either make its move, or be tacitly admitting that it's military has been so degraded that Russia has the upper hand, and that it can now set its sights on areas currently under AFU control, and the AFU can do no more than slow the process of the Russian military inevitably taking them.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Mar 21 2023 20:24 utc | 86

re. Robert Fisk, Depleted Uranium

https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/children-cancer-iraq-depleted-uranium-b2021285.html

Posted by: jared | Mar 21 2023 20:26 utc | 87

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 21 2023 20:11 utc | 84
UK is erased off the map
----
but leave Scotland alone, please.

i don't need to know any more of the russian soul than is contained in the words 'mir' and 'vodka' to know that there are plenty of russians who feel just like you.

it does seem like russia, to its credit, great credit, has tried to maintain a sense of proportion about things. what that means for DU use is difficult to say.

esp. when, as far as anyone knows, nothing has actually been done yet on UK's plans.

but sure, nuke London. rent's too damn high anyway. try not to hit France. they do seem to be trying, what w/their protests and such.

that's some serious strategery you talkin. well played. from your computer screen.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Mar 21 2023 20:27 utc | 88

1) Will the US launch everything if the UK is erased off the map?

2/3) Does RU have the means to destroy the two or three(1 of 2 currently seaworthy) UK SSBNs that are out at sea? If not, can RU reliably shoot down a salvo of 32-48(16) SLBMs?

If the answers are No and Yes (and I have seen high ranking Russian military figures claiming so), then just do it. The world will be a better place without the UK -- no other state in history has brought more death, destruction and misery onto the world.

But if the answers are different, then this will be just another mockery of a red line.

Very much indeed enjoyed all your posts, during your, unfortunately, brief absence. An OUN-B Nazi or NAFO supporter, or just paid Psyops ? Insane.

&

@ Jack Gordon | Mar 21 2023 20:08 utc | 81

True. :(

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 21 2023 20:28 utc | 89

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 21 2023 20:11 utc | 84 UK is erased off the map ---- but leave Scotland alone, please.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Mar 21 2023 20:27 utc | 89

Unfortunately, London didn't leave it alone and placed the SSBN bases there...

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 21 2023 20:29 utc | 90

The analyst says :
What kind of depleted uranium shells will the UK supply to the Ukrainian armed forces?

According to the Military Chronicle, these are British 120 mm feathered sub-caliber armor-piercing projectiles of the L26A1 and L27A1 types with armor penetration of 600 and 720 mm, respectively. The enemy will arm the formed companies of Challenger-2 tanks transferred to Kiev with these shells.

The ballistic parameters of these projectiles pose a significant threat to all modifications of the T-72B, T-72B3M and T-80BV tanks, even when fired from the front (in the frontal protection). However, the frontal areas of the upgraded T-80BVM, T-90A and T-90M Proryv tanks are capable of withstanding these projectiles.

It is worth noting that the Russian armor-piercing shell "Lead-2" overcomes 770–800 mm of steel equivalent, surpassing British products.

Posted by: mo3 | Mar 21 2023 20:32 utc | 91

Posted by: evm | Mar 21 2023 19:49 utc | 74

Melitopol was mentioned in NATO documentation as being a priority objective for operations to secure the Crimea.... personally I think any operational or strategic leaked plans are misdirection... satellite surveillance has made covert massing or concentrations impossible... Russian general staff and NATO knows exactly what's going on...it's us arm chair generals and western audiences that the Western hopium bs is directed at. I don't hear any Russian sources telegraphing future operations. Odessa will figure predominantly in operations in the South...so will Romania and Moldova...once the final Ukraineian defensive positions are breached and NATO rejects the Chinese peace plan all hell will break lose on anything with green or yellow armbands

Posted by: Joe | Mar 21 2023 20:35 utc | 92

i don't need to know any more of the russian soul than is contained in the words 'mir' and 'vodka' to know that there are plenty of russians who feel just like you.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Mar 21 2023 20:27 utc | 89

Something you will never find discussed in the West, but is widely discussed in Russia, and does seem to correspond to historic reality much closer than the official narratives, is that the real villains in the WWII story are the British and the Americans, not Hitler.

Sure, the Germans actually fought the war, and with a real genocidal intent too, but the Anglo-Saxons were the ones who supported and pushed the Nazis to do it all throughout the 1930s, precisely in order to destroy the Soviets. In much the same way they are doing now with Ukraine.

Which is why within months of the end of the war, when the USSR had been severely depleted, they switched sides again, openly allied with the Nazis, and started seriously planning nuking the USSR.

Keep that in mind.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 21 2023 20:37 utc | 93

cynical at best. DU ammunition has documented horrible results in serbia iraq. heck even the Italian NATO troos that handled the ammo , they sat ontop of them in transport all got rectal cancer together, its more a provocation and if one ever needed to "think of the children" as the ICC warrant bloviates

Posted by: hankster | Mar 21 2023 20:38 utc | 94

Posted by: Joe | Mar 21 2023 20:35 utc | 93

Words and claimed/"leaked" plans are pretty much irrelevant. The only thing that matters are actual concentrations and positioning, which may only act to confirm some suspected leak or plan.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 21 2023 20:39 utc | 95

@35 outraged

To be precise I didn't say bahkmut was going to hold, I just said that it was a higher priority and adviika will be lost to ukraine first.

I'm also on the record saying that bahkmut will fall when the ground is dry and both sides will want to shorten lines for summer offensives. Then ukraine will pull back and russia will courtesly let them walk out without their gear, like sverodonetsk.

So, sorry if I can't say russia is winning more all the time, its not true.

But Russias enemies are some of the worst people, so relatively speaking I'd like to see russia score some victories and ruin those people.

So go russia?

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 21 2023 20:40 utc | 96

Coming from a nation that collaborated with the Nazis, I am increasingly uneasy of the Russian-China alliance. The Chinese have a dark history when it comes to dealing with the Caucasian races.

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 21 2023 20:02 utc | 78

The whole "multipolarity" charade is very dangerous in the long run.

When was the last time we had "multipolarity"?

Prior to WWI/WWII.

What did that result in?

WWI/WWII.

Unipolarity is also very bad -- then the hegemon loses touch of reality and goes on a rampage. We've been watching that over the last 30 years. And eventually that leads to a world war too, because the hegemonic power gets so drunk on its own superiority propaganda that it goes after the countries it should never be touching.

The only somewhat stable condition is a bipolar world.

And here is the danger for Russia and China (more so for Russia) -- if they defeat the US conclusively, then further down the line they will have to again fight each other, just because there will be no common enemy to ally against.

The best situation for them is for the US to remain very strong but to not be run by lunatics that cross red lines left and right. I don't see a prospect for that.

P.S. Multipolarity also means the end of the world for other reasons. They major problems of the world are the following:

1) Drastic overpopulation -- we are at more than 8B, it needs to be reduced to <500M by early 21st century, and that needs to happen through draconian control on fertility, so that it happens without mass murder, genocide, war, famine, and disease, and we can preserve civilization in working order.

2) Resource depletion -- everything you can think of is running out, both non-renewable and renewable resources

3) Environmental degradation -- it's not just climate change, ecosystems are collapsing everywhere, we have an anthropogenic mass extinction ongoing, etc.

4) Because of all these reasons, and because of the fundamental absurdity of it, we need to also move away from growth-dependent capitalism to a steady-state economy.

Either that's done, or civilization is doomed.

Now what are the bozos in the Kremlin talking about? A multipolar world in which everyone makes their own decisions in a sovereign manner, and in which neoliberal capitalism, but with some state controls, still reigns.

Well, guess what? You are never ever solving those existential for the species problems in such a multipolar world. Right now the number of countries who are willing to go for it is zero. In a multipolar world of independent sovereign countries, all of them will have to agree on it voluntarily. Not happening. Ever.

The only way that could happen is if one country or an alliance of a few countries is sufficiently strong to enforce the kind of policies that need to be enacted to make it happen on everyone else. And because the momentum of ignorance and entrenched interests is so difficult to overcome, that means using some quite brutal methods to achieve that. But of course we need to first make that transition in at least one of the big and powerful countries, and even that is a hopeless task now...

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 21 2023 20:42 utc | 97

shadowbanned | Mar 21 2023 20:37 utc | 94

Yes, I remember reading about the Ribbentrop-Welles pact. Revisionist fucktard.

Posted by: tks | Mar 21 2023 20:45 utc | 98

@shadowbanned | Mar 21 2023 20:42 utc | 98

Be aware you are replying to an impostor @78 , not me

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 21 2023 20:46 utc | 99

@98 shadow banned

500 million lol. Right off the georgia guidestones. Gross. I know Depopulation is the agenda, but cmon it's only to let the elites live in a garden paradise forever (maybe literally if anti aging is perfected)

The earth properly harnessed has solar inflows that can support tens of billions of people, nevermind other energy sources. Low static population sounds like extinction to me.

Humanity forever and everywhere that is the goal.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 21 2023 20:49 utc | 100