Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 25, 2023

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-70

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b on March 25, 2023 at 20:15 UTC | Permalink

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The first part of my chapter on the US US: The Terror Dream (1584 to 1776).

The US capitalist elite is just continuing its struggle against the Other that will not concede and accept subjugation, whether it be the Amerinidians, Mexico, the Central American "communists", Latin American progressive governments, Germany, Japan, the USSR and now Russia, Iran and China (and Syria, Myanmar, Ethiopia etc.). A struggle that has been going on since the establishment of the first British colony in North America. The "New Jerusalem" must prevail, the Other is deemed "aggressive" simply by their unwillingness to be subjugated.

There will always be the venal elites who will happily destroy their own nations for the benefit of the US as long as they think that they will be taken care of, such as the Kurdish leadership who have still not been able to wean themselves from the idiotic trust of the US, the South Vietnamese leadership, Sakashvilli in Georgia, and now the Ukraine and the European elites.

Posted by: Roger | Mar 25 2023 20:33 utc | 1

Today’s Russian Defence Ministry ‘clobber list’: https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/[email protected]

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (25 March 2023)

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.

In Kupyansk direction, aviation and artillery of the 'Zapad' Group of Forces have engaged the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Dvurechnaya and Timkovka (Kharkov region). The enemy's losses in this direction amounted to 55 Ukrainian troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, and two motor vehicles.

In Krasny Liman direction, Ground-Attack and Army aviation, artillery and units of the 'Tsentr' Group of Forces have inflicted fire damage on enemy manpower and military hardware close to Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People's Republic), Yampolvka and Terny (Donetsk People's Republic). More than 85 Ukrainian servicemen, two armoured vehicles, three pick-up trucks, and one D-20 howitzer have been destroyed during the day in this direction.

In Donetsk direction, the Russian troops supported by artillery of the 'Yug' Group of Forces eliminated more than 155 Ukrainian troops, three armoured vehicles, five motor vehicles, and one D-30 howitzer.

In South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, aviation and artillery of the 'Vostok' Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on the AFU units close to Ugledar and Novomikhailovka (Donetsk People's Republic). The total losses of the enemy in these directions amounted to 70 Ukrainian servicemen, three motor vehicles, and one D-30 howitzer.

In Kherson direction, Russian troops have neutralised up to 35 Ukrainian troops, ten motor vehicles, and one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers during the day.

Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Group of Forces have engaged 76 AFU artillery units at their fire positions, manpower, and military hardware in 112 areas during the day.

Air defence systems have engaged six HIMARS, Olkha MLRS projectiles and one HARM anti-radiation missile during the day. Moreover, 11 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles including one Bayraktar TB2 were shot down close to Tokmak, Ivanovka (Zaporozhye region), Kolomyichikha (Lugansk People's Republic), Nikolskoye, Kramatorsk, Kirillovka, and Vladimirovka (Donetsk People's Republic).

In total, 404 airplanes and 224 helicopters, 3,573 unmanned aerial vehicles, 414 air defence missile systems, 8,399 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 1,072 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 4,428 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 9,114 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

The tempo of recent days is being maintained. Good luck to those contemplating a counter-offensive, it will be needed...

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 25 2023 20:35 utc | 2

From Interfax (via Firefox Translate add-on): https://www.interfax.ru/russia/892914

Moscow. March 25. INTERFAX.Russia has something to respond to possible supplies of depleted uranium shells to Ukraine: the Russian Federation has hundreds of thousands of such shells, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

"I must say that Russia, of course, has something to respond to. Without exaggeration, we have hundreds of thousands, hundreds of thousands of such shells. We haven't used them yet," Putin said, answering questions from the media in an interview on the Rossiya - 24 TV channel (VGTRK).

He was asked what would happen to the "famous Ukrainian black soil" in this case.

"This is a question waiting for a painstaking researcher in the person of those who initiate such steps that contradict the interests of normal logic and humanitarian law," Putin said.

He refuted the thesis that depleted uranium shells leave no trace and are harmless.

"This is certainly not the case. The fact is that they, of course, do not belong to the category of weapons of mass destruction, this is true. But the cores of shells with depleted uranium - there can be different materials used - it is used for armor-piercing purposes, it still somehow generates the so-called radiation dust. And in this sense, of course, it belongs to the most dangerous weapons, " Putin said.

Experts confirm, he continued, that after the use in the former Yugoslavia and Iraq, oncological diseases among local citizens increased many times.

"If we are talking about Ukraine, then those who will apply it should understand: do they consider those people who live in this territory to be their own? How will they use it against people who are actually their own? I mean, the leftovers will get dusty. In particular, they will pollute the sown areas, " Putin said.

In this sense, the President stressed once again, such weapons can be classified as the most harmful and dangerous for humans.

The Russian leader is convinced that Western countries, pumping Ukraine with weapons, are trying to prolong the conflict.

"From the point of view of the logic of those who provoked this conflict and are trying to save it at any cost, this is probably the right decision (to supply weapons). In my opinion, this will only lead to a greater tragedy, " the President added.

~~~

https://www.interfax.ru/russia/892915

Moscow. March 25. INTERFAX.Russia intends to produce and modernize a total of more than 1,600 tanks in the next three years, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

"The arsonists plan to send 420 or 440 tanks to Ukraine, everything is the same as for ammunition. During this time, we will produce new ones and modernize the existing ones over 1,600, " Putin said in an interview with journalist Pavel Zarubin for the Moscow. Kremlin. Putin", an excerpt from which was broadcast on Saturday on the TV channel "Russia-24 "(VGTRK).

"The total number of tanks of the Russian army will exceed three times the number of tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Even more than three times, " the President added.

"I'm not even talking about aviation. There is a difference of 10 orders of magnitude, " the Russian president said.

Vladimir Putin also stressed that the Russian authorities are aware of the West's plans to supply a significant amount of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, but the Russian military-industrial complex is also increasing production.

According to Russian information, about 14-15 thousand shells are currently produced in the United States every month, next year production will reach the level of 42 thousand shells, and in 2025 - 75 thousand.

"I think that if the United States is going to go from 15 thousand (shells) this year to 42 (thousand) next, then for other (countries) this will be even more difficult. There are still some rules there. Each country has its own plans for the development of the armed forces and the so-called national economy, infrastructure, education and healthcare, " Putin said.

At the same time, he added, the armed forces of Ukraine use up to 5 thousand shells every day.

"The Russian armed Forces spend much more. I don't want to give an assessment of the rationality of decision - making at different levels of military administration, but now, as you know, the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff are even forced to introduce certain limits," Putin said.

"At the same time, Russian production and the Russian military-industrial complex are developing at a very rapid pace, such as many did not expect. Over the same period of time, the Russian industry will produce three times as much ammunition as we are talking about, even more than three times as much, " he added.

No worries really, the West does not yet have the aircraft to deliver 10’s of 1,000’s of shells. From 14 years ago: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/case-against-a400m

First, there is uncertainty as to when the A400M would be available. The first aircraft were contractually pledged for delivery to the French Air Force in 2009. This date has been subject to slippage however, and the A400M has not even undergone flight-testing yet. A recent study by the French Senate suggests delays of at least three to four years. For the UK, this would mean the first A400M would only enter into service by 2014/15 – several years after the retirement of the C-130Ks. Even these dates are not guaranteed. EADS has not confirmed when the aircraft would be available, and is requesting time until the end of this year to come up with a new estimate.

Second, schedule uncertainty is coupled with performance uncertainty. There is in fact no guarantee at this point that the A400M’s performance will be that contractually agreed upon. EADS has already announced that it cannot deliver some navigation and low-level flight capabilities. The aircraft is also considerably heavier than anticipated at this stage of development. According to the French Senate’s report, the aircraft weighs twelve tonnes more than projected. This could shorten range, reduce payload and lengthen take off. Thus, the actual performance of the A400M remains uncertain.

Third and finally, the price of the aircraft remains uncertain. The current unit price is estimated at €145 million. But EADS wants to renegotiate this price to reflect much higher than anticipated development costs. Some estimates predict an increase of at least thirty per cent in unit price.

In sum, the fundamental variables of in-service dates, performance and price of the A400M remain shrouded in uncertainty.

A whole lot more can be dug out about the A400M transporter; I will just add that a friend of mine has been closely involved and has made enough overtime to bring forward his anticipated retirement date. Backwards and forwards between Bristol and Spain turned out to be quite lucrative!

Isn’t Western military technological superiority wonderful...

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 25 2023 21:07 utc | 3

Would appreciate input from our distinguished barflies on the issue of potential fissures now perhaps visible between the US empire as a largely territorial entity gone global and the far older largely hereditary financialist cartels controlling Western governments and 3 successive empires--Spanish, British, US--largely through debt, currency manipulation, bribery, sedition, assassinations.

See Schiller Institute, Matt Ehret in history, Tom Luongo in finance.

On one side, the neocons, US Treasury, & old European / Levantine money behind Davos; on the other, US military, at the least some of the biggest players in Wall Street & the Fed.

One cabal is ready to crash the whole system; the other prefers to crush everywhere else but preserve the US as power centre.

The latter is sanguine about destroying Europe ("allies") and great power competitors (i.e., essentially geopolitical); the former accepts the destruction of Europe as a step in the Reset of the whole game board (i.e., essentially theoretical/"theocratic"/technocratic).

Thoughts?

Posted by: Paul Damascene | Mar 25 2023 21:07 utc | 4

Original Operation Z. Little known expediton by Russia into China and the South Pacific.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Volunteer_Group


Surprising we have not heard about this from the Western Media. Russia kept China in the fight with Japan all through the 1930s by providing Air Superiority over Taiwan and Wuhan.

In October 1937, some 450 Soviet pilots and technicians assembled in Moscow, subsequently traveling to Alma Ata to bring 155 fighter aircraft, 62 bombers, and 8 trainers into China. The Soviets arrived as private citizens and initially wore civilian clothing, the mission remaining a secret even from their closest relatives. They were instructed to avoid using the term comrade, and in the event of their capture they were to claim that they were former members of the White movement permanently residing in China. Prior to each mission, the pilots changed into Chinese uniforms, whilst their planes were marked with Chinese Air Force insignia. By 1941, the Soviet-built aircraft sent to China would amount to 885, including two-engine and four-engine bombers, though the latter were never used in combat. Apart from the aforementioned I-15, I-16 and UT-4, the Soviets also supplied Tupolev TB-3, Tupolev SB, and Ilyushin DB-3 bombers. Over 1,200 aircraft had been sent to China by the end of 1941. At the time of the arrival of the first Soviet volunteers, the Chinese Air Force had been reduced to less than 100 serviceable aircraft. These were machines so outdated that the Soviets described them as a "museum of antiquity", and were manned by less than 600 men. Morale was low and the improvement of the situation was hampered by corrupt officials who bought outdated foreign equipment in return for bribes. The Japanese outnumbered the Chinese in the air by a 13:1 ratio and were better trained. Moreover, the Japanese aircraft were faster and equipped with such novelties as night vision devices and radios, easily outmaneuvering and overpowering any opposition.

Posted by: Wokechoke | Mar 25 2023 21:32 utc | 5

Novorossiysk. The elephant in the room that neither NATO nor Russia speak of in public, but which has been the real observation target for US drones (both air and sea, including under water) for the last year.

Think nuclear weapons storage for the Black Sea Fleet, think Submarines, and think naval Special Forces, and you only get the tip of the Strategic Russian naval base of Novorosssiysk.

Posted by: Novorossiysk | Mar 25 2023 21:38 utc | 6

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 25 2023 20:35 utc | 2
Today’s Russian Defence Ministry ‘clobber list’:

Despite all the past months' "clobberings", the mighty Russian military still only controls the easternmost 1/8th of Ukraine. Pathetic. They should have steamrolled their way at least to Kiev by the end of spring 2022, no matter what gadgets NATO supplied to Kiev's forces. Every day that this conflict goes on, Moscow looks more and more pathetic.

Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | Mar 25 2023 21:59 utc | 7

Every day that this conflict goes on, Moscow looks more and more pathetic.

Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | Mar 25 2023 21:59 utc | 6

If that is true, then why haven’t NATO pounced? By your reckoning, the assorted massed ranks of Leopards and Challenger IIs should be approaching the the Urals by now, ably supported by F-35s providing air cover with ample supplies delivered by A400Ms?

What went wrong?

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 25 2023 22:12 utc | 8

They should have steamrolled their way at least to Kiev by the end of spring 2022

It’s not too late for all the Christian Orthodox of Ukraine to realize Russia’s sacrifice for them.

Posted by: Fred777 | Mar 25 2023 22:25 utc | 9

Russia continues to take big chunks of territory out of the heart of Bakhmut City (Artyomovsk). At the rate it is falling, Bakhmut will soon be known by its Russian name which is "Artyomovsk".

The Western media has been attempting to convince its followers that Bakhmut is of no strategic importance. The fact that the Western media has been promoting this lie to a greater degree lately has been a very revealing indicator that Bakhmut was going to fall.

After its complete fall, the Western media will be going on for months of how little military strategic advantage the control of the city had.

Of course, like much the Western media promotes, this will be proven a lie. This will become evident by how much more rapidly the Russians take the rest of the Donbas and other territory to the Dnieper River.

If Bakhmut was of little or no strategic value, the Russians and Ukrainians would not have fought so hard over keeping it in its control (Ukraine) or to obtain its control (Russia). Zelensky would not have allowed the line from Seversk to Bakhmut to be called "The Zelensky Line".

Let's say Bakhmut really did not have that much stratgic significance. If that were the case, a whole lot of Ukrainian troops have died attempting to defend it. Plus the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) has lost a lot of military equipment in and around Bakhmut. This in itself gives Bakhmut some major military significance. This is borne out by the fact that the AFU is pressing both boys and old men into its ranks. And that Zelensky continues to beg and intimidates the West to give him more military equipment assets.

The Western media lies can readily be exposed with a little knowledge of what is really going on combined with a little logic. Thanks to this thread for helping towards that.

I think the Russians have scheduled both Bakhmut and Avdiivka to fall about the same time. This is most likely for both the morale impact and the strategic impact upon the battlefield.

With Ukraine losing both Bakhmut and Avdiivka around the same time, this will tremendously weaken the strongest layer of defense that Ukraine has defending its zero lines along the Donbas. Sure, Ukraine has secondary and third layer defensive lines. Yet, they are not as strong as their primary line along Bakhmut and Avdiivka. This is yet another reason why both of these cities are of military importance.

The third reason of Bakhmut's importance is that once it is taken, a lot of Wagner and other more aggressive Russian forces will be freed up to continue to advance elsewhere.

Bakhmut will be turned over to the regular Russian forces and other to free up Russia's more aggressive troops such as the Wagner troops.

After Bakhmut falls, I estimate that the rate of the Russian advance will speed significantly. If Russia takes the rest of the Donbas within the next 3 months or so, this estimate will prove to be accurate.

Posted by: young | Mar 25 2023 22:35 utc | 10

# 6
Russia has won
Pheidippides is five miles away to hand deliver the message

Posted by: Dingo | Mar 25 2023 22:38 utc | 11

Admittedly nitpicking the quote from #3, "I'm not even talking about aviation. There is a difference of 10 orders of magnitude, " the Russian president said.

Uh... in what base? Going by the usual base-10 “orders of magnitude” then if Ukraine has 100 planes left, Russia must have a trillion (1,000,000,000,000) planes. Even if he only means 10 orders of magnitude in binary, if Ukraine has 100 planes left, then Russia must have 102,400 planes. For some reason, I doubt both numbers. Maybe it was the translator’s fault, and he really said “a factor of 10” difference.

Posted by: Dalit | Mar 25 2023 22:39 utc | 12

So....Zelensky just said no counter offensive without more western weapons?!?!

Well isn't that a dilly of a pickle? We got this nice war here, but even Zelensky is tired of being led around with little dribbled packets of weapons.

I think he's feeling guilty about his dead country men. One can't wonder if maybe everyone could've been better off in ukraine if only the state could've let it self break apart.

I mean did people in kiev need to oppress people in donetsk? How much worse could it have been of they were peaceful neighbors not bitter enemies?

Yes, something snapped in that guy. I can't really guess what happens next.

Is a Chinese peace deal really happening this summer? Oh my frickin God.

Vote for Biden 2024!! Lost world leadership to China.
Worst. President. Ever.

TRUMP 2024

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 25 2023 22:49 utc | 13

While some continue to decide Russia for the strategic retreats of last year and now the slow advance, Russia has effectively destroyed at least two Ukrainian armies if not a third. More importantly, Russia has compelled NATO to "donate" not just all of its weapons from Soviet times but a growing percentage of its own weapons. The ammunition inventories of NATO have also been depleted. Russia has accomplished this while limiting its own casualties.

Now NATO is escalating yet again by donating an unwieldy conglomeration of Western tanks including Leopards and now Abrahms. The idiotic comment by the imbecilic British defense official that Ukraine will be receiving DU munitions is a further escalation. If NATO really is sending DU ammo to Ukraine, nothing should have been said about it. Russia would have difficulties convincing Western journalists that such ammo had been used. Now Russia doesn't have to prove anything. People will believe accusations that Ukraine has used DU munitions even if NATO doesn't supply them. NATO went full fucktard on this.

Even more useful for Putin, Russia now has a pretext to severely escalate interdiction of weapons to Ukraine. This could mean sinking a ship load of tanks in the Baltic or even at the dock in Poland. The European and US public will eagerly accept an explanation that such extreme measures were needed to keep DU munitions from being used in Ukraine.

The bottom line is that Russian victory is almost assured. Hopefully; Biden's puppeteers don't go nuclear in response.

Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Mar 25 2023 22:50 utc | 14

https://t.me/vysokygovorit/11123

Older than Edda

The isolation of the battlefield as a category has three successive levels: tactical - carried out by means of the regiment (brigade) commander, operational - by means of the division commander and above, up to the front. And strategic, in which we are no longer talking about isolating the battlefield, but about isolating the theater of operations. All three levels require, first of all, continuous reconnaissance and timely target designation.

Today, in fact, we are implementing only the first level - in a number of sectors, the brigade commanders are quite proactive enough to organize control of the battlefield to the entire depth of the range of their fire weapons, and forbid the enemy to move in this depth. Further, all this becomes very sporadic - problems arise with reconnaissance, and with target designation, and with the implementation of this target designation.

The result is that the enemy can freely maneuver in the strategic and operational depths, despite the fact that we have an overwhelming superiority in the appropriate means, and, in theory, the Ukrainian rear along the entire front should be crammed with burnt columns. But the columns are coming to the front. And at the tactical level, the enemy himself knows how to fight.

There is an opinion that this is called “creating problems for ourselves”, which we have been doing for a year now.

Mar 25 at 10:07


Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 25 2023 22:51 utc | 15

Posted by: Dalit | Mar 25 2023 22:39 utc | 11

Possibly a bug and not a feature of the translation add-on for my version of Firefox. All I did was copypaste, mea culpa.

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 25 2023 22:53 utc | 16

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 25 2023 22:51 utc | 14

And you’re late on parade today; overslept or something???

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 25 2023 22:56 utc | 17

TRUMP 2024


Amen brother. Anyone who wants to see this war ended as soon as possible needs to support the only man who can bring peace to the world. If he and Putin coulda just had a sitdown like there should have been until the 2020 election was stolen, I have no doubt they could have hammered things out in an afternoon.

Posted by: LGB! | Mar 25 2023 23:06 utc | 18

RF use of medium & heavy precision guided glide bombs ? Blockquotes translated as required.

FAB-500 & FAB-1500 (& FAB-3000's) are merely air dropped dumb iron bombs, 500Kg(300kg explosive) & 1500Kg(1000kg explosive). Useful on the battlefield in Ukraine, yet imprecise with limitations. RF has very, very many F_ck-Tons(A huge'em unit of measure larger than a Shit-Ton) of 'em in munitions storage depots, as well as reserve war stocks.

Advantages of conversion by add-on kit to precision guided aerial glide bomb:
Cheap. Huge extant stockpile. Precision guided, so only one or two needed for certainty of strike or accurate/timed 'double-tap'. Stand-off weapon, low risk for aircraft & pilot, hence can be launched by Fast Movers from ~40km+ away, outside typical effective engagement range of remnant AFU tactical ambush short-medium range Air Defense Systems(ADS) at & beyond FEBA, excluding major urban cities in interior (S-300, ASAM, etc). Huge stocks. Ideal effective substitute for far more expensive & longer range Strategic & Theater conventional missiles. Did I mention, cheap ?

Sep2'22

Today, finally, the Russian air aces were hung up with cast iron(bombs) and given the freedom to fly and bomb. Not from a roll-up, but like in Syria. For some reason, FABs have not been in a hurry to apply since the withdrawal from Kiev. RuAF pilots supporting the counteroffensive of the Russian troops in the Nikolaev-Kherson direction are happy.

Feb20'23
Clip of a FAB-500 unguided dumb iron bomb dropped on Avdiivka from PMC 'Wagner' mini-Airforce . FAB-1500 produces a significantly larger, Boom.

Mar8'23
Clip of an unexploded(Dud) FAB-500 unguided dumb iron bomb in Avdiivka

Jazz 'em up a little with some flashy bling tech, for a few rubles, & suddenly they're a cost effective air-launched short-medium range precision guided substitute stand-off weapon , for a fraction of the cost of an equivalent missile. Merely fit an add-on kit.

Mar13'23
Image 'Wartime' kit, precision guided glide bomb Basic model, no spit & polish re aesthetics or presentation nor finish, after all it is going to go boom. First time use.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 The Russian Aerospace Forces began to use new high-precision glide bombs.

In Donetsk, an unexploded FAB-500 aerial bomb was found on one of the streets of the Kuibyshevsky district, which fell due to a technical malfunction from a Russian bomber. However, the most interesting thing is that a control and correction unit was discovered 500 meters from the find, making a planning precision-guided munition out of an ordinary unguided aerial bomb. Most likely, the block fell off the bomb during the fall and hit the ground. The wings are also clearly visible in the photographs of the product.

This is really very important news , which we personally have been waiting for a very long time. The effect of the use of cheap high-precision bombs is already tangible in the Avdiivka direction, where they are used.

Mar24'23
Image AFU says ...

A spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, Yuriy Ignat, confirmed the use of new guided bombs by Russian Air Force aircraft.

"They have FABs (high-explosive bombs) in sufficient quantity. They just add wings to them, GPS and that's it. They are there, they just need to be upgraded. The price of the issue is much less than producing missiles.

We recall that yesterday Russian aviation carried out massive airstrikes on AFU facilities in the Sumy region, using a similar high-precision aviation munition to the American JDAM.

Mar24'23

The Russian Aerospace Forces launched a massive strike on enemy positions in the villages of Viri and Bilopillia, Sumy Region.
Several dozen Ukrainian soldiers were killed and at least two hundred wounded by high-precision air-launched glide bombs.

Mar24'23

🇷🇺🇺🇦 At night, the Russian Aerospace Forces carried out 11 airstrikes on targets in the Sumy region.

“The Sumy region was attacked by guided bombs launched from 11 aircraft. More than 11 of these guided bombs attacked targets in the region. Losses are being specified there…” Yuriy Ignat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force command, said in a press release.

It is known that objects in the city of Belopolye (pictured) and the village of Viri of the Rechkovo community fell under airstrikes. Targets in the Nikolaev territorial community were also attacked, the distance from which to the Russian border is about 40 kilometers.

This is the largest attack by Russian aircraft on border facilities of the Ukrainian army in recent times. What is also noteworthy is that the Ukrainian military notes the use of precisely guided bombs, and not missiles, which may indicate a gradual buildup of this type of weaponry in the Russian Aerospace Forces.

Mar25'23

At the site of the airstrike on the building of the former school in Belopolye, the remains of a part of the control and correction unit from a new Russian high-precision aerial glide bomb were found.

According to some reports, this product is called UMPC (Unified Planning and Correction Module). For comparison, in the second photo, the remains of the same product from a non-functioning aerial bomb that fell (pictured) in Donetsk due to a technical malfunction.

Thus, the Russian analogue of the American JDAM complex is increasingly seeing expanded application in Ukraine.

There are various designs & kits available, see ROSOBONRONEXPORT(Click Show More as needed), Models, Variants, Specs, PDFs, for arms export, non wartime mass-production displayed. Required to be 'presentable' at Arms Expos.

Essentially there are two primary types, Precision Guided(multiple methods) or 'Set & Forget', Fab-500 & FAB-1500 derivatives precision guided conventional HE glide bombs & same again but Fuel Air Explosive(FAE) or concrete-piercing penetrator variants for destruction of hardened targets, etc. For example:

1)

KAB-500S-E (CEP 7-12M)
Guided aerial bomb with satellite guidance equipment and a HE warhead

The KAB-500S-E "drop-and-forget" guided aerial bomb with satellite guidance equipment and a HE warhead is a precision-guided weapon and is designed to destroy stationary ground and surface targets such as warehouses, military industrial facilities and ships at anchor.

The KAB-500S-E can engage targets with known coordinates, which are entered before the bomb release envelope.

The KAB-500S-E is part of the armament systems used in frontline aircraft (fighter-bombers and attack aircraft).

2)

KAB-500-OD (CEP 4-7M)

The KAB-500-OD “drop-and-forget” guided bomb with an EO correlation TV seeker refers to the precision-guided weapons and is designed to engage ground targets like weapon emplacements and manpower nestled in the folds of the terrain under normal weather conditions.

The KAB-500-OD is part of the armament systems used in frontline aircraft (fighter-bombers and attack aircraft).

3)

KAB-1500LG-Pr-E (CEP 4-7M).
Guided bomb with a laser gyro-stabilized seeker and a penetrator warhead.

The KAB-1500LG-Pr-E guided bomb with a laser gyro-stabilized seeker and a penetrator warhead refers to the precision-guided weapons and is designed to engage fixed small hardened and buried targets such as reinforced concrete shelters and command posts.

The KAB-1500LG-Pr-E is used singly or in salvo from frontline aircraft (fighter-bombers and attack aircraft) fitted with a laser illumination system or a simple sight to produce pre-targeting data (when a ground designator operator is used).

Peace

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 25 2023 23:11 utc | 19

Posted by: LGB! | Mar 25 2023 23:06 utc | 17

Are you in the right thread here? Or have I missed some news about Jared Kushner being appointed as US Ambassador to Russia?

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 25 2023 23:15 utc | 20

Putin has said the decision to deploy nuclear missiles inside Belarus was, in part, motivated by UK's decision to send DU munitions to Ukraine. Nice clean missiles versus little dirty bombs, it seems...

He also said RF has plenty of DU munitions itself, "hundreds of thousands of such shells", though where and why RF might use them has been deliberately left vague.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Mar 25 2023 23:21 utc | 21

Just replying to Neofeudalfuture above me. Not trying to derail things, but had the 2020 'selection' not been stollen by the dems and their Chinese handlers, then there would be no war in Ukraine right now. Imma leave it at that.

Posted by: LGB! | Mar 25 2023 23:22 utc | 22

Ukraine is a wheat producing country. The use of uranium bullets in Ukraine would be unfortunate; I do not wish to pass a Geiger counter over every slice of bread I eat.

Posted by: Passerby | Mar 25 2023 23:28 utc | 23

Missiles and heavy bombs fall on the Ukraine rear lines.
This is the only form that can take the so-called "contre-offensive".
Any accumulation of material is severely punished.
The Western equipment will burn and we won’t even see the scrap metal.

With more than 28,000 heavy military units burned in one year the Western imagining an "counter offensive" with a few trinkets. smilling.

Paris burned in a fight that is not the right one.
The financial powers will pay the less wealthy to bludgeon the poorest or vice versa. It doesn't matter.

Military defeat and the fall of colonial currencies (euro dollars)
The West was driven towards its own destruction.
A few generations.

Good riddance.

Posted by: la bouteille | Mar 25 2023 23:33 utc | 24

The tempo of recent days is being maintained. Good luck to those contemplating a counter-offensive, it will be needed...

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 25 2023 20:35 utc |
---------------------------------------------------------
Thank you, Andy.

The MoD 'Clobber Report' covers the entire length of the front, good to keep inform the readers that the action is along the entire line.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 25 2023 23:39 utc | 25

@ West of England Andy | Mar 25 2023 20:35 utc | 2

Minimum, incomplete, low-ball KIA(only)(FEBA only) 400+ :

📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed (losses over previous 24hrs(+?)):
404 aircraft, (Daily avg 1.1)
224 helicopters, (Daily avg 0.6)
3,573(+11) unmanned aerial vehicles, (Daily avg 8.9)
414 surface-to-air missile systems, (Daily avg 1.1)
8,399(+7) tanks and other armored combat vehicles, (Daily avg 21.8)
1,072 multiple rocket launchers, (Daily avg 2.8)
4,428(+4) field artillery and mortars, (Daily avg 11.4) and
9,114(+23) special military vehicles. (Daily avg 23.3)

Cheers.

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 25 2023 23:44 utc | 26

Putin has said the decision to deploy nuclear missiles inside Belarus was, in part, motivated by UK's decision to send DU munitions to Ukraine. Nice clean missiles versus little dirty bombs, it seems...

He also said RF has plenty of DU munitions itself, "hundreds of thousands of such shells", though where and why RF might use them has been deliberately left vague.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Mar 25 2023 23:21 utc | 20

That was his way of wriggling out of yet another "red line". The nukes in Belarus were decided on long before the DU shells became an issue, and have in all likelihood already been there for quite some time. But because RU made a big fuss about DU, which would then have meant Putin would have to finally find a pair of balls and actually do something that disrupts his own comfort and that of the oligarch class, he is now looking for ways to backtrack that don't look too much like losing face.

So his way of doing it is saying that the nukes in Belarus are the response.

But they went there before the DU shells, and they will do absolutely nothing to stop contamination of the Donbass.

Absolutely disgusting...

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 26 2023 0:01 utc | 27

Posted by: Wokechoke | Mar 25 2023 21:32 utc | 4
--------------------------------------------------------
Thank you for the posting and pointer. A piece of WW II history I never knew, Wuhan having the largest memorial to the Soviet air crews who died for China fighting against Japan and with incredible combat results.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 26 2023 0:05 utc | 28

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 26 2023 0:01 utc | 26

Calm down, drama queen. We've heard your problem with Putin the first time. It's pointless polluting thread after thread with the same message.

Posted by: Boo | Mar 26 2023 0:11 utc | 29

Russia continues to take big chunks of territory out of the heart of Bakhmut City (Artyomovsk). At the rate it is falling, Bakhmut will soon be known by its Russian name which is "Artyomovsk".

Posted by: young | Mar 25 2023 22:35 utc | 9

No, the Bakhmut progress seems to have stalled.

Posted by: MiniMo | Mar 26 2023 0:13 utc | 30

Oberst-Gruppenführer ReinhardVonSiegfried | Mar 25 2023 21:59 utc | 6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Russian strategy was not to follow American 'Shock-and-awe' strategy and tactics. That topic has been well discussed in these pages and you may have missed it.

The Ukrainians are fellow Slavs. Western strategy has been to pit Slav against Slav resulting in the current destruction of people, soldiers, civilian infrastructure in spite of Russian attempts to destroy as little as possible. The Ukies also use their fellow citizens as human shields and do not mind slaughtering some to stage war crimes.

I promoted you to a higher rank, Oberst-Gruppenführer. I was born in occupied territory during WW II.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 26 2023 0:17 utc | 31

Despite all the past months' "clobberings", the mighty Russian military still only controls the easternmost 1/8th of Ukraine. Pathetic. They should have steamrolled their way at least to Kiev by the end of spring 2022, no matter what gadgets NATO supplied to Kiev's forces. Every day that this conflict goes on, Moscow looks more and more pathetic.

Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | Mar 25 2023 21:59 utc | 6

I think these reports exaggerate the numbers of Ukrainians killed. There is not proof of these numbers, and though Ukrainian losses are likely significant and even large, they are likely far less than the Russian reports claim and estimate. They could be including those injured, even fairly lightly, as being "taken out". Ukraine is able to replenish most of the losses.
The main problem is Russia being stingy with its regular troops. It is mainly the Donbass fighters (who are depleted after fighting for almost 9 years) and Wagner doing the heavy lifting/fighting. The fact that Russia recruits Chechens and prisoners to fight shows it is being cautious with its regular troops, or most Russian troops and civilians are reluctant to fight/volunteer in this war.

Posted by: MiniMo | Mar 26 2023 0:18 utc | 32

@Posted by: Wokechoke | Mar 25 2023 21:32 utc | 4

Thanks for this piece of forgotten history, an extra piece to the overwhelming proof that the Soviet Union was the central player in beating the Axis Powers. The vast majority of the Japanese army and army aviation were in China, unable to be redeployed against the US.

Posted by: Roger | Mar 26 2023 0:22 utc | 33

@21 Posted by: LGB!
Not a derail. President Trump is all about peace in Ukraine. Right on topic or, it should be. Peace in Ukraine is first on his agenda.
If the 2020 election was true and just. Trump would be president of USA. Ukraine would be peaceful, We wouldn't be talking about Glide Bombs, DU, and all the other highly explosive topics discussed. The talk would be more mundane things like Trade and prosperity for Europe and the USA.
Have President Trumps rally in Texas on. Easy 10 thousand + there. Many more hanging outside. Peaceful assembly, Lots of excitement and happy cheering faces.
It is what America can be with the right leadership.

Posted by: Golddiggr | Mar 26 2023 0:23 utc | 34

The Ukrainians are fellow Slavs. Western strategy has been to pit Slav against Slav resulting in the current destruction of people, soldiers, civilian infrastructure in spite of Russian attempts to destroy as little as possible. The Ukies also use their fellow citizens as human shields and do not mind slaughtering some to stage war crimes.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 26 2023 0:17 utc | 29

But nevertheless the fighting leaves the cities destroyed anyways and looking just as bad as the ones in Iraq and Syria. Every building and every house ends up pulverized or severely damaged and the fields are all pockmarked from the bombs.

Posted by: MiniMo | Mar 26 2023 0:24 utc | 35

They should have steamrolled their way at least to Kiev by the end of spring 2022, no matter what gadgets NATO supplied to Kiev's forces. Every day that this conflict goes on, Moscow looks more and more pathetic.

Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | Mar 25 2023 21:59 utc | 6

---------------------------------

Mr. Von Suckfried, Russia has already defeated three US/NATO armed and trained proxy Ukrainian military armies, doing exactly what they have been doing. They are just about to do it again with Kiev's last 80 thousand recruits. If anybody should be embarrassed it should be the US, NATO, and you.

Posted by: Ed | Mar 26 2023 0:49 utc | 36

ReinhardVonSuckried | Mar 25 2023 21:59 utc | 6

pathetic is the usa spends so much more each year for war profiters bc russia is so inept!

and so the usa wants to pick a fight with a coastal power 7000 miles from home?

usa ran through iraq [2003] in 40 days to baghdad and 20 years later still stuck to the iraq tarbaby!

and usa still fights isis (whoever is left) in syria 6 years after syria did them in in alleppo.

Posted by: paddy | Mar 26 2023 1:02 utc | 37

@ Minimo - all
@ Gefreiter Musikerschütze ReinhardVonSiegfried

Stalled ?

🤚💥 In the north of Artyomovsk, Wagner continues to move along the Bakhmutka River. There, the opponent completely retreated from the market. To the west, the enemy withdrew from the Avangard stadium after Wagner successfully occupied the gray zone near the intersection. This poses a serious threat to the encirclement of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the northern regions, so that a withdrawal from there can be expected soon. Artyomovsk - Fighting in the city center.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Kokaine Hed Zelensky admitted that the Army of OUN-B Nazi ruled Banderastan cannot yet launch a counteroffensive in the eastern direction, explaining this by a lack of manpower, weapons, ammunition & no AirForce, and 'cause it's muddy & wet outside. He expressed his point of view as he begged on his knees for more derelict junk & discards from his US/NATO overlords in an interview with the largest Japanese newspaper Yomiuri.

Oh no! Where did all Ukraine's soldiers/conscripts, weapons, fuel & ammunition go ? Lost down the back of El Presidente's sofa, amongst the Kokaine stash, perhaps ? 0/10.

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 26 2023 1:04 utc | 38

Absolutely disgusting...

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 26 2023 0:01 utc | 26
-------------------------------

I agree, you really are.

Posted by: Ed | Mar 26 2023 1:05 utc | 39

But nevertheless the fighting leaves the cities destroyed anyways and looking just as bad as the ones in Iraq and Syria. Every building and every house ends up pulverized or severely damaged and the fields are all pockmarked from the bombs.

Posted by: MiniMo | Mar 26 2023 0:24 utc | 33
---------------------------------------------
Do you think that Biden and his gang of Neo-con thugs in the State Department didn't know this before they started this God Dammed war?

Posted by: Ed | Mar 26 2023 1:15 utc | 40

Oh no! Where did all Ukraine's soldiers/conscripts, weapons, fuel & ammunition go ? Lost down the back of El Presidente's sofa, amongst the Kokaine stash, perhaps ? 0/10.

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 26 2023 1:04 utc | 36

Well, it is his job to be the beggar. Just doing his duty. And our job? Pay up.

Posted by: Jmaas | Mar 26 2023 1:16 utc | 41

ℹ️ 🇵🇱🤡 Poland has submitted a bill to the EU, in the amount of two Billion Euros for the weapons it has handed over to Ukraine. Twatter. lol

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 26 2023 1:20 utc | 42

Not trying to derail things, but had the 2020 'selection' not been stollen by the dems and their Chinese handlers, then there would be no war in Ukraine right now. Imma leave it at that.

Posted by: LGB! | Mar 25 2023 23:22 utc | 21
---------------------------------------------------
With Trump we would likely be at war with China and Iran.

Posted by: Ed | Mar 26 2023 1:22 utc | 43

@ ReinhardVonSiegfried | Mar 25 2023 21:59 utc | 6
Every day that this conflict goes on, Moscow looks more and more pathetic.
I took the US Army four years to pacify Baghdad, held by partisans and not a military force, and not against a government. That's what the finest military in the world (per Biden) accomplished.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 26 2023 1:24 utc | 44

Instead of taking Bakhmut, it should be turned into a deathtrap for Ukrainian army and equipment. Keep them in limbo. Don't totally frustrate them. That will make them send more and more of their army and weapons to the region where they will be destroyed. That will also limit Russian surveillance of Ukrainian mobilization making it easier to target. Turn Bakhmut into modern day Stalingrad for Ukrainians.

Posted by: Jason | Mar 26 2023 1:28 utc | 45

@ Ed | Mar 26 2023 1:05 utc | 37

Don’t attack other posters.

Posted by: natokraine | Mar 26 2023 1:29 utc | 46

This is for those who lament about lack of land grabbing by Russians in Ukraine. Winning land and holding them is not easy.

After fighting for 10 years NATO could only have a helipad in Saigon in the Vietnam War.

Despite a 20 year war NATO only had the Kabul airport in Afghanistan.

After 10 years of war NATO only had the Green Zone left in Iraq.

In comparison Russia has done very well.

Posted by: Jason | Mar 26 2023 1:33 utc | 47

@ shadowbanned | Mar 26 2023 0:01 utc | 26

So, what would you do?

Would you start taking out in-theater opposing leadership top-down until someone takes over, stops taking orders from abroad, and orders an unconditional surrender?

Would you destroy road and rail near western borders?

Other?

Posted by: natokraine | Mar 26 2023 1:36 utc | 48

Thanks Golddiggr, for the support. IFKYK. I have been to almost a dozen Trump rallies over the years and I tell you, there is nothing like it. Just love for country and for fellow Patriots.

To the Fella saying Trump would be at war with China or India by now, remind me again how many wars Trump started?

And they absolutely love him in India. At at rally that he headlined a few years back, he drew about 250k if I remember correctly.

But back to Ukraine, I don't think it is an exaggeration to say that Trump is the one who can bring peace to this world, and so we all need to do what we can to support MAGA/MEGA.

Posted by: LGB! | Mar 26 2023 1:53 utc | 49

The story line for the war that I have accepted as true is that Putin was attempting to pressure Zelensky into a treaty. The invading forces were not numerous enough to occupy the country, and when Zelenski didn't cooperate, the Russians had to retreat to easily defensible locations. Over summer and into the fall, Putin put together a proper army, and it was expected that they would take control of the situation over winter. The problem that turned up was that it was an usually mild winter and the eastern Ukraine was one big mud hole. So it all got put on hold.

If the above is true, the Russians should be able to hand Ukraine a serious loss. Thus the next few months are an easy test as to just how truthful the Russians have been. Time to put up or shut up is approaching.

Posted by: Jmaas | Mar 26 2023 2:03 utc | 50

@ LGB! | Mar 26 2023 1:53 utc | 47

Take this to the non-Ukraine thread please.

Posted by: natokraine | Mar 26 2023 2:06 utc | 51

https://www.rt.com/russia/573591-international-legion-ukraine-corruption/

Exactly ! This confirms what I thought about foreign/NATO mercenaries. Way exaggerated. Pumping out BS instead of meat grinder fighting.

Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 26 2023 2:10 utc | 52

I'm basing this on yesterday's militaryland.net maps. Other sources correlate well with it. Russian forces attacked around twenty cities, and have been steadily moving the line of contact to the West. Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka used to be strategically important cities because they controlled the roads and railroads of the area around them. They were hinge pins in Ukraine's second defensive line.

Russia just moved past them. Russia has taken the territories that they used to supply. They are no longer strategicly important. They are now tactical targets: speed isn't as important. Russia can sit back and play whack-a-mole. Every time a Ukrainian soldier sticks his head up, Russia launches artillery at the hole. Eventually, the Ukrainians will run out of ammo and food.

Look at the "caldrons." They are now horseshoes. As long as Ukraine is adding troops to those caldrons, Ukraine will keep the door open to them. Reports are that there are 60,000 Ukrainian troops in Bukhat area now. Russia will drive them into the caldron, bare its teeth, and close the mouth on them. I'm glad that I'm not there to watch.

Those other formerly strategically important cities will be taken when Russia finds it useful, too. "God created time so that everything wouldn't have to happen at once."

Posted by: barstool | Mar 26 2023 2:23 utc | 53

#22

You are absolutely right.
Contamination of the global food supply would most certainly happen, given how pervasive wheat is in so many cultures and so many modern food stuffs.
It would be catastrophic for a long long time.

The West is out of its tiny mind.
Axis of Stupid.

Posted by: Irish | Mar 26 2023 2:26 utc | 54

Would you start taking out in-theater opposing leadership top-down until someone takes over, stops taking orders from abroad, and orders an unconditional surrender?

Should have been done on Day 1, they already deserved it at the time by the mere fact of what had been done in the Donbass in previous years and then by making Bandera, Shukhevych, Petliura and the rest national heroes.

But if not then, it did not take much more additional time for them to earn it -- certainly when reprisals started in the areas Russia pulled out of, and then when terror bombing intensified, especially when they were given NATO precision weapons.

Putin is in fact deeply in the wrong for not having taken them all out, at this point he is enabling atrocities.

Would you destroy road and rail near western borders?

Absolute no brainer. They have the technical means to do it contrary to the nonsense excuses you see here -- there are a few bridges in Western Ukraine that are much smaller and easier to take out than those on the Dnieper, plus a few key railway infrastructure objects, and then if they insist on using roads, the old Soviet heavy, now near-obsolete anti-ship missiles, of which Russia still has a large stockpile, could be used to make sure no viable repairs of the road network can be made by hitting them again and again, and making huge craters that will not be repairable in a day or two.

And, of course, FFS, shut the grid down. They blew through a billion dollar worth of missiles hitting transformers and not generators, and UA barely felt it in terms of military logistics.

Just shut it all down. Again, they have the technical means.

Other?Posted by: natokraine | Mar 26 2023 1:36 utc | 46

Isolate the battlefield deep in the rear, by properly destroying logistics.

If, as it's rumored, this is blocked by the business interests of oligarchs, and Putin and the oligarchs are unwilling to change their position on this, then both the oligarchs and Putin need to be lined up and shot for high treason, and someone who is truly willing to fight for Russia's interests should take the reigns.

Make it very clear no more NATO reconnaissance flights will be allowed in the Black Sea. The MQ-9 downing clearly did not send a sufficiently strong message.

Mobilize properly. The economy still isn't on war footing, and the currently mobilized are pathetically insufficient for the task at hand. It took 3 million men to liberate Ukraine back in the 1940s, it will not take less than at least half that now. But 300,000 is only 20% of what is needed.

Formulate proper war aims -- don't just spew vague nonsense about "multipolarity", "the goals of the SMO will be achieved, etc.", say clearly what the objectives are so that society can rally behind it and the troops know what they are fighting for.

Etc. etc.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 26 2023 2:32 utc | 55

@21 Posted by: LGB!
Not a derail. President Trump is all about peace in Ukraine.

Posted by: Golddiggr | Mar 26 2023 0:23 utc | 32

What a buncha' horseshit. trump is about trump, everytime, all the time. Peace in Ukronazisland is incidental to his self aggrandizement, and just another dogwhistle in his tool box of deceit.
Only fools vote for that clown.

PFASs, that's what trump's about.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2023/03/24/trump-rot-at-the-epa/


Posted by: Drinky Crow | Mar 26 2023 2:34 utc | 56

🇺🇦🇺🇲 Dnieper be Mekong Delta ? Calling Colonel Walter E. Kurtz ...

A new donation from America is a small patrol boat PB40 Defiant that the 🇺🇸Americans handed over to the Armed Forces of the Navy of 🇺🇦 Ukraine.
It is armed with two 12.7mm M2 Browning machine guns, one 7.62mm M240 machine gun and one Mk19 automatic grenade launcher.

▪️ Patrol Boats were Tanks in the Vietnam War that patrolled the Mekong Delta deep in friendly territory. The question is how will it turn out on the Dnieper?

🇺🇦 AFU is in the process of field testing, prior to introducing, the latest in new advanced and innovative weapons systems to make up for it's ever diminishing tubes & launchers. Ammunition is plentiful.🤡


Posted by: Outraged | Mar 26 2023 2:37 utc | 57

I do not wish to pass a Geiger counter over every slice of bread I eat.

Posted by: Passerby | Mar 25 2023 23:28 utc | 22

DU (i.e. U-238) decays by emitting alpha particles (i.e. helium nuclei), which do not go very far. Regular Geiger counters do not detect those, you'd need radiation detector with scintillator or a Geiger-Muller detector with very thin window. These are somewhat expensive and few of these are sensitive enough to detect spontaneous decay of U238 (it has very long half-life).

Posted by: averros | Mar 26 2023 2:50 utc | 58

The despicable UK is sending DU shells for no other reason that to poison the ground and spread cancers, their effect on the battlefield will be irrelevant. What does Russia do in response? Nuke the UK? The world opinion they have been carefully developing would be squandered. Drop a dirty bomb perhaps? Same outcome. It is a conundrum the UK is well aware of, NATO uses every dirty trick in the book, we are not the good guys in any reality.

Posted by: Organic | Mar 26 2023 2:53 utc | 59

Posted by: young | Mar 25 2023 22:35 utc | 9

It might be surmised that Wagner is using the relative lull in Ukraine's offensive plans to take more of Bakhmut city. A delay is actually possible due to mud, and it may be up to a week or two. Additionally, Ukraine continues feeding more of its better quality troops in Bakhmut.

At least recently, Ukraine had no own artillery support in Bakhmut city area. It might have changed though, as their offensive plan might have called for placing artillery more close to Bakhmut, east of Chasov Yar.

If Wagner can seal Chasov Yar during this relative lull, or delay in UAF offensive for whatever reason. Then it will be much harder, and actually moot for Ukraine to implement their offensive operation against the pincer of Bakhmut. Of course, they need to be very careful not to wear themselves out in Bakhmut, which is what Ukraine is counting on. But inside the city, the artillery does half of the work, they just act to expose Ukraine's positions among the ruins and use drones to exactly guide the fire. It is very slow. But my view is Ukraine is actually already committing troops to defend western part of Bakhmut to keep it "open", which were allocated for the offensive operation against the pincers.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 26 2023 3:02 utc | 60

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11899089/Britain-need-10-years-notice-Putin-repel-Russian-invasion-warns-General.html

retired (so theres that) the source is dull but every banner runs the same story. so its an interesting is it truth or plain psyops. but 10 years to rebuild UK military is actually plausible, they are reduced to nothing . A military that couldnt successfully hold a raffle at a pub ,

Posted by: hankster | Mar 26 2023 3:04 utc | 61

Posted by: Wokechoke | Mar 25 2023 21:32 utc | 4

They got recalled to the USSR when the USSR signed that pact with Hitler.

There is a monument to them in China were they operated. I can across it one day while visiting the area.

Posted by: bs | Mar 26 2023 3:28 utc | 62

I don't usually follow the Ukraine threads, so please forgive any redundancy if this has been discussed. Global South has the full briefing from Russia on the seriousness of deploying depleted uranium (anywhere):

Briefing by Chief of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Protection Troops of Russian Armed Forces Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov on consequences of West nations’ supplying Kiev-regime with depleted uranium ammunition

It's pretty grim stuff.

I find myself very ignorant in this matter, and I asked over there, the questions quoted below. I'm copy/pasting here because I would welcome understanding more about this aspect of the conflict:

If DU were to be used, how far from its landing would it spread over time? I don't have any knowledge in this field, so I would welcome opinion. Going by the historical examples cited here (Yugoslavia, Iraq), the contamination seems to have remained largely where it was first laid down. If true, this is at least containable - or rather, can at least be demarked.

But if vehicles spread it throughout Ukraine, and if it gets into the food chain, does it end up all over the world?

And if the Ukies fire these shells at locations where the Russians are, doesn't this contaminate territory that Russia intended to hold? Does this force tactical retreats, or at least diversions?

All of these questions seem to indicate to me that Russia may be compelled to do something to prevent this materiel ever being deployed in Ukraine. But what?

I have read this thread so far, and I appreciate the discussion on this aspect of the conflict. I would welcome any thoughts on this matter.

Posted by: Grieved | Mar 26 2023 3:45 utc | 63

Ukraine is a wheat producing country. The use of uranium bullets in Ukraine would be unfortunate; I do not wish to pass a Geiger counter over every slice of bread I eat.

Posted by: Passerby | Mar 25 2023 23:28 utc | 22

################

Made me laugh that someone was worried about getting their gluten and carbohydrate fix irradiated. Thanks for the chuckle.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 26 2023 4:17 utc | 64

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 25 2023 22:49 utc | 12

"TRUMP 2024"

Trump or Biden or whoever. The evil empire is dying. Whichever sociopathic con man --or woman-- is hoisted up to the top dog position will be torn apart. The karmic wheel is spinning faster.

Posted by: migueljose | Mar 26 2023 4:17 utc | 65

With Trump we would likely be at war with China and Iran.

Posted by: Ed | Mar 26 2023 1:22 utc | 41

#############################

Likely Iran after the recent revelations about Israel and the 2016 election published in The Nation.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 26 2023 4:19 utc | 66

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 26 2023 2:32 utc | 53

I think the best way to kill hundreds of thousands of Nazi’s is to lead them into a dead end and let them experience hell on earth, over and over and over until the Nazi soldiers are all gone. Then you March to the capital and demand the rest of the Nazi leadership. Putin is not at war with Ukraine or the Ukrainian people, just Nazis, hence the SMO. After the SMO is over, then I think he will give his terms and if they are refused, then war. I keep going back to his statement though... if by Nazi he meant the leadership of the west. I guess we will find out once the SMO is over in a few months.

I think Putin knows what kind of animals these Ncons are. There’s sadly only one thing to do for a rabid dog...

That’s how I see it...

Comms from AGC, Armchair Generals Central

Posted by: Azscout | Mar 26 2023 4:22 utc | 67

I know how to use Uranium to push a ship through water, but I have no real understanding of combat. That's why I'm just a barstool here among true experts in such things. My information on DU used in combat is from reading places like this one.

Titanium is basicly as effective as DU, and not radioactive, for piercing armor. However, DU ignites, sending burning, molten, radioactive metal throughout the interior of the tank or whatever was hit. That burning takes the DU airborne well above ground level and potentially spreads it for very long distances. If a tank with DU armor is hit, even by a conventional round, some of the metal from the armor would go airborne. Consider that the harder the metal, the less ductile it is. Hardened armor is going to generate dust when it fragments. No effective cleanup would remove or contain the radioactive dust.

The dust is the most hazardous form to life. Solid chunks of DU emit alpha radiation that is mostly stopped by the skin. Dust and gaseous forms enter the body and mostly remain there, continously irradiating the body from the inside. Bad news!

Posted by: barstool | Mar 26 2023 4:36 utc | 68

@Grieved | Mar 26 2023 3:45 utc | 60

My #65 comment was a response to #60. Sorry.

Posted by: barstool | Mar 26 2023 4:40 utc | 69

11:

"Maybe it was the translator’s fault, and he really said “a factor of 10” difference."

Russian Wikipedia tells us:https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9F%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%8F%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BA_%D0%B2%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%8B

Порядок чисел в естественном языке
В естественных языках встречаются выражения вроде «на порядок больше», «на много порядков больше», «на пару порядков меньше». В большинстве случаев подразумеваются десятичные порядки, то есть эти выражения можно прочитать как «примерно в десять раз больше», «примерно в 10 n 10^{n} раз больше, где n n — достаточно велика», «примерно в 100 раз меньше». Также последнее время стало распространённым ошибочное использование выражения «порядка N», где N — некоторое число. При этом исходя из контекста понятно, что подразумевается «примерно N», что, конечно, не соответствует определению термина «порядок числа».

Posted by: Catilina | Mar 26 2023 4:46 utc | 70

Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | Mar 25 2023 21:59 utc | 6

The trolls even pretend to believe that the key lies in the temporary occupation of land rather than in the resource exchange ratio. Apparently, this is because the ratio is extremely unfavorable for the NATO side. In total, the West has spent over $100 billion, while Russia only has spent about $20 billion for this war.

Since China can act as an economic supporter of Russia, such an exchange ratio clearly makes the leaders of the trolls anxious.

Recently, wsj admitted that the Ukrainian government had to cut the salaries of non-frontline personnel. This shows that even with tens of billions of dollars in U.S. and European aid and tens of billions of dollars in IMF loans, Ukraine's ineffective neoliberal government is still having trouble keeping its war machine running properly.

Posted by: Colin | Mar 26 2023 4:52 utc | 71

Posted by: young | Mar 25 2023 22:35 utc | 9

The key to the art of war is destroying more of the enemy's resources with less their own resources, so whether or not Bahamut is strategic is meaningless. This propaganda is only used to get such trolls to support the fake narrative that "Ukraine is taking back its land. It makes sense to support them!"

With the obvious ability to take the city, Russia's aim is to use the city to destroy more NATO resources while consuming less of their own, not to take the city itself as soon as possible.

The neoconservative narrative justifies the failure of the North Vietnamese to fully win the Vietnam War in the Spring Offensive as a South Vietnamese victory and to justify the continuation of the war, blaming the failure of the US in the Vietnam war on the media's inability to adequately engage in brainwashing propaganda.

This then leads us to the extremely absurd policies and propaganda of the neoconservative war machine.

Posted by: Colin | Mar 26 2023 5:02 utc | 72

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ War Map and the Situation on the Fronts in the Evening of 25 Mar 2023; pub. 00:05

🇧🇾 Vladimir Putin announced today that #Russia will deploy tactical nuclear weapons in #Belarus without violating its obligations within the START Treaty. A clear signal to the Baltic states, Poland and 404. The very fact of TNW deployment could deter aggressive neighbours.

⚔️ Situation on the Fronts for the past Day

🔹#Svatovo - #Kremennaya Direction:

➖ The Russian army is advancing near #Belogorovka.
➖ Also supported by artillery, ours was advancing in the direction of #Terny, #Nevskoye and #Makeyevka.

🔹#Artyomovsk (#Bakhmut) Sector:

➖ Fighters of the Wagner PMC continue to advance in the direction of #Bogdanovka and Orekhovo-Vasilyevka.
➖ In #Artyomovsk, according to a number of sources, fierce fighting continues in the Central Market area and along Mariupolskaya and Sadovaya streets.
➖ In addition, the "bandwagon" is advancing near #Predtechino.
➖ Fighting continues on the outskirts of #Krasnoye.

🔹#Donetsk & #SouthDonetsk Directions:

➖ The RF Armed Forces are advancing near #Berdychi and #Novobakhmutovka (note: another one, close to the recently taken 1st one), continuing to cover #Avdeyevka.
➖ From the #Peski side, the assault on #Pervomayskoye continues.
➖ Fighting also continues for #Maryinka.

💥 In #Kramatorsk, according to reports from the field, a Russian missile hit the location of militants in the building of "Kramatorsk Economic and Humanitarian Institute".


https://t.me/sitreports/6287

Posted by: Down South | Mar 26 2023 5:53 utc | 73

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💀 Military Expert Boris Rozhin on the situation in the #Artyomovsk (#Bakhmut) Sector as of 25 March 2023, 20:29⚡️

🔹1. City:
➖ In the central areas of the city, Wagner is stepping up pressure on the enemy positions, continuing to storm towards the city centre.
➖ Fighting is observed in the southern districts of the AZOM factory, in the direction of the Metallurg stadium and in the area of the Central Market.
📌 There are no signs of the collapse of the enemy's organised defences.

🔹2. South:
➖ There is increasing pressure from the south near #Krasnoye and in the direction of the pilots' monument at the southwest entrance.
➖ The Chasov Yar - #Krasnoye - #Artyomovsk road is under heavy artillery and mortar fire.
📌 The AFU has still not been able to push Wagner back from the road, which maintains all supply problems, which rely on a dirt road and fields between #Khromovo and #Krasnoye. These villages themselves are still under AFU control.

🔹3. Northwest:
➖ In the northwest, the Wagner PMC is conducting assault operations near #Bogdanovka and Orekhovo-Vasilyevka. It is still premature to speak about the capture of the settlements.
➖ The enemy has introduced additional reserves in this area and continues to accumulate reserves near Chasov Yar in preparation for a more serious counterstrike.
➖ The RF Armed Forces carry out regular strikes against enemy reserves in #Konstantinovka and Chasov Yar.
➖ The enemy, in turn, attempts to strike ammunition depots and disposals east of #Artyomovsk in order to reduce the offensive potential of our forces.

🔹4. West:
📌 Zelensky's statements about not being ready for an offensive in the #Artyomovsk area should not be taken on faith, the enemy to the west of the city has already accumulated large enough forces that he can use to create problems to the northwest or southwest of the city.


https://t.me/sitreports/6284

Posted by: Down South | Mar 26 2023 5:55 utc | 74

Only a year of war has passed, and already the fatigue in the EU from sanctions and, in general, from the Ukrainian crisis is going through the roof.
Each time it becomes more and more difficult to promote a new package of sanctions and financial and military assistance to Kyiv.

We have been writing about this since 2022, pointing out that this will happen soon, “Maidans” are expected in the EU, the beginning of a new military conflict, and then a “sad fate” awaits Ukraine. Everyone can forget about her.

Now even Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has begun to say that the European Union is already tired of sanctions. The only trump card to convince everyone to raise rates is the message about the historical time. But we can assume that it will soon stop working.

We have insided that the Ukrainian crisis may repeat the Afghan scenario. Especially after Biden's secret visit to Kyiv.


https://t.me/legitimniy/15021

Posted by: Down South | Mar 26 2023 5:56 utc | 75

Zelensky gave an interview to the Japanese edition of Yomiuri, where such basic messages were heard.
1. Ukraine is not advancing yet because there are not enough weapons and ammunition
2. The West must increase offensive aid

With this interview, Zelensky is saving himself from a future, possibly unsuccessful offensive campaign, in which he indirectly blames the West, which did little to win.

Everyone knows that the West is putting pressure on Ze, demanding to start an offensive in the next 120 days. And it will start.

But Zelensky spends a lot of manpower, heavy weapons and ammunition to keep his political rating and image in the case of the defense of Bakhmut/Artemivsk (Bakhmutovsky fort), which reduces the reserves and thus the chances for a victorious offensive.


https://t.me/legitimniy/15020

Posted by: Down South | Mar 26 2023 5:57 utc | 76

The authorities continue to clamp down on the information field. We have already reached the point where it is forbidden to discuss the future offensive, write about plans and speak out about the situation in the military and weapons case.

The construction of a dictatorial country is taking place by leaps and bounds. We have been inside about this many times, our November layout for this case is still relevant today.

We are waiting for a law to be introduced that prohibits criticizing the authorities, covering the scumbags and corruption of officials, under the pretext that this is all in favor of the “enemy”.

As they say, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. So in Ukraine, the Office of the President, hiding behind good intentions, is building a total dictatorship.

It all started with the fact that it was forbidden to cover arrivals and criticize the Armed Forces of Ukraine for placing them in residential areas, kindergartens and civilian facilities, and then gradually the tap is turned on.

It's time to start a flash mob #screw the freedom of speech in the name of democracy and a great victory.
The reason for the tough measures is the elections are coming soon.


https://t.me/legitimniy/15022

Posted by: Down South | Mar 26 2023 5:59 utc | 77

Nice to hear that Russia is finally converting big dumb bombs to gps / glonaas guided glide bombs and whatnot. During the war in Syria the Russians were saying that the gps / glonaas guided air dropped bombs and glide bombs were too expensive and unnecessary. So this war is forcing Russia to put down the vodka bottle and get off its lazy behind, throughout human history it has been war which has been the main driver behind technological development and innovation. An added benefit of war is that birth rates increase, Russia must rotate the troops back home for R&R often, so this war is just strengthening Russia immensely when it was supposed to be weakening Russia.

@ Jason | Mar 26 2023 1:28 utc | 43

The dumb Russians should turn Polish western Ukraine into the death trap instead of using Russian eastern Ukraine as the death trap. Now its Russian eastern Ukraine which is going to get DU'ed instead of western Ukraine.

Posted by: gT | Mar 26 2023 6:28 utc | 78

Whoops, its glonass and not glonaas, my bad.

Posted by: gT | Mar 26 2023 6:34 utc | 79

Latest Martyanov for the bloviating hater...

Crash Test Dummies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ti_d3VsjXVs

I presume by the title that he extends President Biden's nickname to the rest of the Administration - and probably Europe, too. Will see when I listen.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 26 2023 6:49 utc | 80

Re: De-Dollarization

Another system relevant global financial institution being quietly rescued this weekend by intimate money printing - Deutsche Bank

Barron‘s had a wowser of a article this weekend highlighting how Foreigners are pulling their capital out of US with a shocking sub-title The US is uninvestable

Conclusion;, Slow but steady increase in the pace of De-Dollarization.

Posted by: Exile | Mar 26 2023 7:30 utc | 81

Orignally I could not see the importantance of Bakhmut. It is a defensive position, but there are others further west and these can easily be strengthened. Indeed whole new ones can be established. The ground might not be so favourable but in essence endless defence lines can be formed.

What makes Bakhmut so important is that it is a transportation hub - road and rail. The Russians need to take the city before moving further west and gain control of the road and rail lines running through it. Otherwise they would struggle to maintain logistical support for troops operating west of Bakhmut, nothwithstanding leaving a Ukrainian fortifed fire base to their rear might not be a great idea.

Bakhmut is therefore a key defensive blocking position. The Ukrainians have decided to try to hold it. They can use "expendable" second grade troops to do so. I am thinking the decision has been that they might as well die there as anywhere else. This decision plays into Russian hands. Bad weather has prevented mobile warfare and the Russians possess a huge firepower advantage. So they are using Wagner - their own expendable troops [?] - backed by firepower to inflict serious damage on the UAF in static attritional warfare. They have in effect encicled a significant force.

Neither side appears to have committed mobile reserves in any numbers as yet, but given the encirclement of UAF forces we read reports of a potential "break in" type operation. No doubt if such an operation is mounted it will be a greater Twitter victory regardless of events. However it would be a great opportunity for the RF to seriously attrit UAF forces as they would be attacking without surprise into a battlefield dominated by deployed Russian firepower.

Posted by: marcjf | Mar 26 2023 7:52 utc | 82

Ukrainian sources report that more than 50% of the militants trained at the training grounds of the EU and Britain have already been eliminated or become crippled in the Bakhmut and Donetsk directions. Some of them were located on the border with Belarus, but a month ago they began to be transferred to the east.

Strictly speaking, it is not entirely correct to blame any of the Bandera military leaders for the fact that the reserves preparing for the offensive were “eaten up”, because if the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not try to hold these lines, they would have to hold others. Strictly speaking, the Nazi regime has already lost the war, but the Ze-team is dragging on the agony, every day of which enriches it inexpressibly. Even if at the cost of the death of more and more thousands of Ukrainians.

https://twitter.com/GraphicW5/status/1639890947314950145

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 26 2023 7:57 utc | 83

And they absolutely love him in India.
Posted by: LGB! | Mar 26 2023 1:53 utc | 47

---

Remember when Trump was the biggest clown at the circus in Davos and he organized a ring kissing party. That was funny.

Posted by: too scents | Mar 26 2023 7:58 utc | 84

" 10 orders of magnitude, "
tried GoogleTranslate to German and the wording is comparable.

BUT probably a translation "uncertainty"
magnitude of 10:1 would better fit reality.
( translations are on occasion problematic _or_ are leveraged for insidious purposes : cue those helpful CIA translations offered :-)

Posted by: MAKK | Mar 26 2023 9:24 utc | 85

Umm echo chamber much? I'm not at all always with Shadowbanned, but I value the contrarian perspective. The DU episode is not being played well by the Russian side, and that includes Putin personally. He said explicitly that sending DU munitions to Donbass would lead to a serious Russian response, but there is no sign that Russia is prepared to hit back hard at the British to deter such a step. Can it really have been a surprise that London would respond "FU, we'll do it anyway"? After all, that's how it always goes. One can condemn of course, meekly try to shame the shameless; but drawing red lines one doesn't intend to enforce only projects indecision. Just the other day a British spy plane escorted by two fighters flew past Crimea; clearly, they were none too scared about being made an example of. And as others here also point out, the DU issue is important, esp. given that SE Ukraine (the new Russian territories if you prefer) is densely populated and agriculturally important.

Never forget that the Empire are masters at incrementalism and setting precedents--boiling the frog in short. It's typical Putin to want to avoid unnecessary escalation over a minor issue--how many shells could 14 tanks fire anyway? But once the Brits get their nose into the tent, the Dark Throne can start poisoning the Donbass much more systematically.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Mar 26 2023 9:27 utc | 86

@Ma Laoshi 86

But what option does one have beyond "symbolism"?

(After all clearly NATO owns dominance of escalation)


Posted by: AG | Mar 26 2023 9:33 utc | 87

@ West of England Andy | Mar 25 2023 21:07 utc | 3
A400M uncertainties.

Afaics a worthless article. Heavy media battle was apparent during the
A400M gestation and design phase. Absolute astounding how many people of various ilk had to spout off on that topic.
All gone quiet on the A400M front now.
It flies, is a good transport plane.
Cost was an issue but it never reached the troubles and cost explosion the C17 ( brought up for US superiority) experienced in its beginning (C17: they had to do a new wing, forsooth and cost doubled"

Posted by: MAKK | Mar 26 2023 9:36 utc | 88

At 83 re ukr losses....some talk that ukrops are deliberately seeking out russian native and culturally more so speakers to send to front line...a form of genocide....

Posted by: Jo | Mar 26 2023 9:43 utc | 89

At 86.. maybe or hopefully the DU bombs could be nullified in transport as a RTP before they get to Ukraine...they might go by ship then train to some holding point for distribution...probably Poland not Ramstein.....if EU countries are certain they are "safe" they might be persuaded otherwise if Russia publishes their location and says will destroy in situ .

Posted by: Jo | Mar 26 2023 9:48 utc | 90

@AG | Mar 26 2023 9:33 utc | 87

>>But what option does one have beyond "symbolism"?
Well I'm not a world leader, and for good reasons. :-) Sending some DU payload home to the UK would clarify things real quick. But let's say you don't want to go there: are there really no Brits sneaking around in either Ukraine or Syria where they don't belong, that could be made to feel that there are consequences? But if you don't want to do any of those things, then don't draw imaginary red lines and write checks you can't cash, or you only set yourself up for more of the same.

>>After all clearly NATO owns dominance of escalation
Is that so, or is it merely a bluff? Most of the time Russia behaves as if they do, I agree. But do the Brits own it, with their single brigade which will mayyybe be built out to a division in 10~15 years? And which other NATO members will rush to die for British pig-headedness? One often sees reference to that Obama interview, where he stated he hadn't gone all in on Ukraine because in those lands, Russia would always have escalation dominance. No reason to treat that as gospel, but at least it's another opinion.

This is about poisoning Russian lands for generations. After the various withdrawals, Russia has something to prove about being able to protect the local population.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Mar 26 2023 10:06 utc | 91

Latest positional update from Weeb Union;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwCV6qRLW4U

Posted by: Lantern Dude | Mar 26 2023 10:17 utc | 92


With mini-submarine and cargo cranes
Nord Stream sabotage: Russian ships headed for crime scene

By Jonas Mueller-Töwe, Oliver Alexander, Carsten Janz and Lars Winkelsdorf
Updated 03/26/2023 - 08:55 AM

Russia is becoming the prime suspect in the attacks on gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea. Information from security circles and publicly available data give a plausible scenario.

Russian military vessels presumably operated at the crime scenes a few days before the attacks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. This is the conclusion of research by t-online, which is based on information from security circles and publicly available data. According to this, the shipping group had the necessary equipment to plant explosive devices. Read the entire research on the Nord Stream sabotage here.

https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/aussenpolitik/id_100149764/nord-stream-anschlag-russische-schiffe-steuerten-tatort-an.html

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Posted by: BonfireNight | Mar 26 2023 10:20 utc | 93

De-dollarization mechanics from a pro-NATO Jewish journalist :

The dollar reserve system will go out not with a bang, but a whimper. The central banks will step in to prevent any dramatic failures. But bank balance sheets will shrink, credit to the real economy will diminish and international lending in particular will evaporate.

At the margin, local currency financing will replace dollar credit.

https://asiatimes.com/2023/03/us-bank-trouble-heralds-end-of-dollar-reserve-system/

Posted by: Exile | Mar 26 2023 10:38 utc | 94

@ shadowbanned

Thank you for your reply.

I’d guess they’ll do more than what’s announced so far.

But, we’ll see what happens.

Posted by: natokraine | Mar 26 2023 10:41 utc | 95

Poland blew up (or was involved in blowing up) NS pipelines. Now they calculated that EU owns them 2 billion euros for arms. While they will probably get it, they forget that German economy will get hurt permanently and they might be unable and unwilling to provide free money through EU to Poland or others much longer.

Technically EU will need to deal with the Target2 balances and ensuing bankruptcy of ECB soon through re-capitalization, which will end the euro area. The question is at what point will the cat be lifted on the table.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 26 2023 10:42 utc | 96

Orignally I could not see the importantance of Bakhmut. It is a defensive position, but there are others further west and these can easily be strengthened. Indeed whole new ones can be established. The ground might not be so favourable but in essence endless defence lines can be formed.

What makes Bakhmut so important is that it is a transportation hub - road and rail. The Russians need to take the city before moving further west and gain control of the road and rail lines running through it. Otherwise they would struggle to maintain logistical support for troops operating west of Bakhmut, nothwithstanding leaving a Ukrainian fortifed fire base to their rear might not be a great idea.

Posted by: marcjf | Mar 26 2023 7:52 utc | 82

Bakhmut was hugely important strategically a year ago. But after nearly a year passed that is no longer the case.

Recall the events from the first months of the war.

The north and northeast of the LNR was taken largely without a fight. Russians just rolled in. Svatovo was taken on March 6 2022, ten days into the war.

In Kharkov it was a similar situation in the northeast -- in Kupyansk the mayor just handed the city over in the first week, Balakleya was taken on March 10.

Then they hit real resistance in the LNR when they approached the Kremennaya-Rubezhne-Severodonetsk-Lisichansk agglomeration, where heavy fighting lasted from late March to early July.

And they met serious resistance in eastern Kharkov region when they reached Izyum, which only fell in early April. After that they stalled completely not being able to cross the river.

Kupyansk and Izyum were similarly strategically important as Bakhmut -- key railroad junctions, the idea being to take them and use them as logistics hubs, so they were targeted as priorities and taken relatively quickly. But that didn't help all that much because there was no progress from there as it doesn't matter if you hold the logistics hub if you have not allocated the needed resources to be moved through it and the enemy has built another series of strong defenses in front of you.

Well, it's the same situation with Bakhmut. In the north of the DNR the key event was taking Popasna (though that's technically in the LNR) -- another town important for logistic reasons. That happened in early May 2022 after a very long and bloody battle (it was near completely destroyed in the process). And then people talked about the "flower of Popasna", because Russians seemed to "bloom" in all directions from there. Yeah, but only for a few miles in each direction. Then they stalled again.

Bakhmut was supposed to be an even bigger Popasna. And had it been taken quickly, there might have been another such effect of it enabling a quick advance in multiple directions. But that window of opportunity is long gone.

Right now UA holds Bakhmut (OK, only a third to half of it at this point) but can't use it as a logistics hub because the roads and railways are cut off. However, that hasn't resulted in the front collapsing.

And they have had many long months to build defenses behind it, so even when it eventually falls, that will not collapse the front either. Then Wagner will have to take a bit of a break as they will be heavily bloodied themselves, and not much will happen for a long time unless fresh regular army reserves pour in.

Now there are reasons to think the Ukrainians themselves are not very confident in their ability to hold the lines after Bakhmut. Hopefully that is indeed true, but that is contingent on Russia's ability to exploit those vulnerabilities, which will require a certain investment of resources that is nowhere to be seen at the moment.

In short, the city lost much of its real importance when it wasn't taken quickly.

BTW, all of that was clear already in the summer of last year.

The primary reason Bakhmut became so "important" as the months dragged on is that it was Wagner who happened to be in that section of the front and it was their next target. And Wagner were the only ones doing much real fighting for a very long time. The regular Russian army largely disappeared after Lisichansk, and only Wagner continued offensive operations. Vastly outnumbered and underresourced relative to what the Ukrainians were throwing there, which is why it has taken forever.

Sure, maybe indeed it is a convenient kill zone to destroy Ukrainian manpower and armor without having to level major cities further to the west. Maybe. But maybe that is just a cope to rationalize away the very strange way the war is being fought. For example, there are several training grounds in Chernigov, within range of Russian heavy MLRS, not to mention Iskanders, with thousands of Ukrainian soldiers there. Not being touched. Why if the objective is to "grind down the enemy"? Doesn't it make sense to do it before the enemy has a chance to kill you and how much sense does it make it wait for those resources to come to the front line instead of hitting them long before that, which you are well in your capabilities to do? That sort of thing...

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 26 2023 10:59 utc | 97

@ shadowbanned

Thank you for your reply.

I’d guess they’ll do more than what’s announced so far.

But, we’ll see what happens.

Posted by: natokraine | Mar 26 2023 10:41 utc | 95

Note that Zelensky himself expected it, which is why he hid in a bunker for the first week.

We know that from Naftali Bennet's revelations about how he received guarantees from Putin Zelensky won't be touched. Then Zelensky crawled out of the bunker and started his daily speeches from his office.

And Zelensky expected it because it is the logical thing to do. Warfare 101 -- take out the command and control structures if you have the technical means to do so. Russia does have the technical means, it had them on Day 1, and has had them throughout the whole war.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 26 2023 11:03 utc | 98

@ # 68 "titanium" ? I'm sure the correct metal is tungsten, not titanium.

Metals, all metals other than the noble metals, are combustible in aerosol dust. Gotta get 'em pretty hot first.

"Dusting" was/is a method of using radioactive materials to deny access...but doing "dusting" (in the 1950s) was a difficult matter... the DU ammunition "solved" that...

Posted by: Walter | Mar 26 2023 11:09 utc | 99

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 25 2023 21:07 utc | 3

The French Air Force has at least 15 A400M in service, as of May 2019. Just saying ...
German -> https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A400M

Meanwhile, German magazine Spiegel runs some fantasy story that Russia has to revert to T-55 tanks now, as a train(s) carrying those has been seen in Russia. Seemingly, the Russian army has burned through it reserves of roughly 9.000 T-72s and 6.500 T-64s already. The state of the media here is just deplorable ...

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Mar 26 2023 11:11 utc | 100

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