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March 24, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-69
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Re-posted from end previous thread …
Minimum, incomplete, low-ball KIA(only)(FEBA only) 645+ … Translated:
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation (24.03.2023)
◽️ In the Kupyan direction, active actions of the units, air strikes and artillery fire of the “Western” group of troops defeated the enemy’s manpower and equipment in the areas of Dvurechnaya, Sinovka, Kislovka of the Kharkiv region, Novoselovskoye and Stelmakhovka of the Luhansk People’s Republic.
💥 Up to 60 Ukrainian servicemen, two armored fighting vehicles, two vehicles, a D-20 howitzer, and two Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery units were destroyed.
◽️ In the Krasno-Limanskoe direction, air strikes, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems of the Group of Forces (Forces) Center hit enemy units in the areas of the settlements of Nevske of the Luhansk People’s Republic, Yampolovka and Hryhorovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
💥 During the day, up to 125 Ukrainian servicemen, three armored combat vehicles, and one Grad MLRS vehicle were destroyed in this direction.
◽️ In the Donetsk direction, as a result of active operations of the Southern Group of Forces units, air strikes and artillery fire, over 380 Ukrainian servicemen, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, ten vehicles, a pickup truck, as well as two Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers were destroyed during the day.
◽️ On the South Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya directions, strikes by operational and tactical aviation and army aviation and artillery fire of the Vostok Group of Forces hit AFU units in the areas of Ugledar, Novomikhailovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Lugovskoye and Shcherbaki of the Zaporizhzhya region.
💥 The enemy losses in these directions during the day amounted to more than 40 Ukrainian servicemen, two pickup trucks, a D-30 howitzer, and one Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery unit.
💥 In the Kherson direction, up to 40 Ukrainian servicemen, two vehicles, a Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer, as well as one US-made M777 artillery system were destroyed as a result of enemy fire during the day.
💥 Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery of groups of troops (forces) of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit 87 artillery units of the AFU in firing positions, manpower and equipment in 109 areas.
💥 A hangar with AFU drones was destroyed near Sukhoy Liman, Odessa region.
💥 An ammunition depot of the Foreign Legion mercenary units was destroyed near Konstantinovka, Donetsk People’s Republic.
💥 Also, a US-made AN/TPQ-37 counter-battery radar station was destroyed near the village of Stepnoe, Zaporizhia region.
💥 The air defense forces intercepted three HIMARS MBRLS rockets during the day.
💥 In addition, 18 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down in the areas of Dvurechnoye (Kharkiv region), Holikovo, Chervonopopovka (Luhansk People’s Republic), Slavne, Novoandreyevka, Volnovakha, Nikolskoye and Aleksandrovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed (losses over previous 24hrs(+?)):
404 aircraft, (Daily avg 1.1)
224 helicopters, (Daily avg 0.6)
3,562(+18) unmanned aerial vehicles, (Daily avg 8.9)
414 surface-to-air missile systems, (Daily avg 1.1)
8,392(+8) tanks and other armored combat vehicles, (Daily avg 21.8)
1,072(+1) multiple rocket launchers, (Daily avg 2.8)
4,424(+9) field artillery and mortars, (Daily avg 11.4) and
9,091(+18) special military vehicles. (Daily avg 23.3)
Comment:
Sustained OP tempo, focused & targeted. Several large scale combined Air strikes & massed indirect Fires on AFU formations & logistics stores throughout Theater from Kharkov region through to Kherson.
Significant AFU losses in manpower/materiel/stores in Zaporozhye region. Highly probable significantly higher actual AFU KIA than MOD incomplete claimed over preceding 24hrs.
Unsustainable manpower & materiel AFU losses continue to mount & now in particular indications of approaching logistics collapse.
The unsustainable losses of transport & logistics vehicles now identifiable in critical shortages or failure, in particular fuel. AFU desperate attempts due necessity to transport & distribute militarily insignificant quantities of logistical supplies, especially POL, via civilian vehicles wholly inadequate. Particularly so in Kherson/Zaporozhye region. The consequences of the RF heightened priority & focus on sustained destruction of AFU ammunition/fuel/stores dumps/depots at and beyond FEBA since late Dec’22 is now apparent & further degrades AFU combat power, particularly the ability to redeploy as well as maneuver & especially so all armor/mechanized units at a crucial phase of the conflict. Now numerous loitering/ranging drones dedicated to destruction of AFU light-skinned vehicles in depth at & in rear of FEBA accelerates the process. Shades of the Battle of the Bulge …
Drones & missile strikes in Odessa. ~10 RuAF fighters launched precision heavy glide bombs on targets in Sumy region. Drone strikes in northern regions & Krivoy Rog.
Bahkmut reduction continues, primarily by Air Strikes & indirect Fires. AFU trapped forces desperately short of shells, mortar rounds, even small arms ammunition.
Avdiika double envelopment continues. Sustained Air Strikes & indirect Fires. Three remaining secondary MSRs all under RF attack. The central & key town of Orlovka is already under RF Fire control
RF developing at least one, possibly two additional double envelopments on other fronts.
AFU continues to be held fixed in place & under constant disadvantageous attrition from direct & indirect Fires, including elsewhere all along FEBA.
AFU Strategic Reserve unconfirmed ~20,000. Status & capability ?
New BMAnalysis article on Ukrainian army, unit cohesion and combat effectiveness.
As effectiveness drops due to various factors, more troops are needed to achieve same result. As we can assume most or all of the original Donbass fighters since 2014 are killed. The rest of combat cohesion will come through training new troops, but Nato is hard balanced in choosing how many to train and how many to send to the front to fill gaps. That’s why combat effectiveness and cohesion are dropping.
It also talks about the still-cautious rules of engagements in the Donbass region, which is perhaps changing and how it affects casualties. The situation is still they are playing the rescue-all-the-hostages game held by ukronazis, which can also result more Russian casualties. Of course, this is part of Nato scorched earth policy.
Also about DU ammunition, and the response policy towards United Kingdom or red lines that are drawn. US is using UK as a tool instead of itself. DU ammunition will decrease moral and ruin the soil and fertile lands in Donbass. The real reason for DU escalation is the impending defeat of fourth iteration of the Nato/Ukraine army and end of organized resistance.
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/war-analysis-7ce
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 24 2023 14:36 utc | 2
The paint has dried on this wall:
“In the end, the only existential threat to the US is its own delusions.
A year before he died, Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote:
‘Potentially, the most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia, and perhaps Iran, an ‘antihegemonic’ coalition united not by ideology but by complementary grievances.’ ”
Excerpted from today’s News Forensics:
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/tomorrows-war-today
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Mar 24 2023 14:42 utc | 3
Russian forces still get repelled according to Dima, so there is still a ways to go before the AFU is actually shattered. If the AFU does decide to pitch those 80k troops (20k are in reserve) I figure they have a good chance of success based on sheer mass alone, but it could end up being a repeat of kherson, where they drive right into a fire sack and get bogged down there for weeks.
But really who knows, I sure as hell dont. War is confusing and a pain in the ass.
Posted by: Domerts | Mar 24 2023 15:11 utc | 4
I’m listening to BBC World Service on the radio. They seem to have turned their “news” coverage of AmeriKKKa’s Ukraine Fake War over to the BBC Drama, Mimicry & Sound Effects Departments. I have never heard so much drivel and balderdash in my life.
Russia is losing hundreds of troops and dozens of tanks, would you believe?
The Drama Department is so busy making stuff up that they haven’t found time to mention that AmeriKKKa is in control of not only the Ukraine putch govt, but also NATO i.e. both sides of the conflict.
Pantomimes R Us?
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Mar 24 2023 15:28 utc | 5
Russia did not advance much in Bakhmut this week. Yet, they did quite well on the Avdiivka front near Donetsk City. Ukraine has been lobbing shells into Donetsk City from Avdiivka since 2014 killing 14,000 plus civilians.
The speculation/rumor is that Russia is preparing the Bakhmut front for a massive Ukraine counter attack. So, the Russian forces did not advance much there in order to get ready for the defense of the coming Ukrainian counter attack.
Or maybe a better way to say this is that the Russians are getting their Bakhmut meat grinder overhauled and set up before a lot of fresh meat is sent its way in the form of young/old untrained Ukrainian troops.
The Russians have set up a very deadly and efficient cauldron for Ukraine in Bakhmut. Over the last months they have slaughtered a lot of Ukrainian soldiers in that cauldron. Even this week, the Wagner forces in the Bakhmut area further reduced the size of this cauldron somewhat as they were slowing and shutting down their advance in Bakhmut to get their bloody meat grinder ready.
It could be that Russia is leaving the Bakhmut cauldron open to invite Ukraine to oblige their invitation of continuing to send whatever the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) could and would into their meat grinder.
While the Russians prepare this death trap, they may be planning to take off at the Avdiivka front to take what remains of the Donbas which they have not taken.
It would be justice that the Avdiivka front becomes the place the major Russian offensive started that resulted in the taking of the remainder of the Donbas. It would be justice because of all the innocent Russian peoples of Donetsk city and surrounding that were blown up from shells launched from Avdiivka by the AFU since 2014.
It could be that Bakhmut is where Russia will chew up and grind the AFU while the Avdiivka front is activated in a very BIG way for the Russian advance.
If this is the Russian plan and if this plan works out well for the Russians, it could still take months for Russia to take and secure all the Donbas. Most likely, Russia will need to take all the territory to the Dnieper River to totally secure the Donbas.
I am estimating that it will take Russia at least 3 months to take and secure the remaining Donbas. That would put us towards the end of June. Soon after this goal is reached, this would be a golden time for Russia to launch against the USA and the rest of NATO.
Around July 8, 2023 looks likely as an early launch date. As the next few months tick away, it will become evident or will not become evident that this timing speculation may be realized. Regardless of the accuracy or lack of accuracy of this timing speculation, whenever Russia takes and secures the Donbas, this will become an ideal time for Russia to launch.
Posted by: young | Mar 24 2023 15:28 utc | 6
This is a very strange war, being fought according to very different rules from any previous war that I know of. Two of the world’s biggest and best equipped armies are pitted against each other, but the political and “sociological” forces involved have conspired to warp the way it is being contested.
Russia has a relatively small number of professionals, mostly in PMCs, and a potentially huge number of conscripts and volunteers. There is a law (I believe) that conscripts must not be deployed outside the RF, and that is limiting even if most of the fighting is still happening inside the RF since the new oblasts joined. Perhaps even more important, the Russians are well aware that the West is capable of any treachery and deception imaginable – and perhaps some that isn’t – so they have to make ample provision for diversionary attacks, a stab in the back, or even the unannounced outbreak of world war with a decapitating attempt. And, ever since the start of the SMO, they have been soft-pedalling their attacks in an effort to minimise civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Since last autumn, they have had to relax the rule about infrastructure – converting whole towns to deserts, as that is the only way to expel the Ukrainians.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians have been fighting with very few constraints except the increasing shortage of men and materiel.
It seems to me that the Russians may be deliberately luring the Ukrainians forward – both to defend and to counterattack -as the most efficient way of bleeding them dry. It reminds me of the way Viktor Korchnoy used to play chess. “Here I am – come and get me! If you can”.
Posted by: Tom Welsh | Mar 24 2023 15:33 utc | 7
Hoarsewhisperer no. 5
“I’m listening to BBC World Service on the radio.”
That’s very brave of you.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Mar 24 2023 15:36 utc | 8
To not get too wishy-washy, here’s another view of Ukrainian plans, which sound scary on paper with multiple simultaneous offensives, including crossing Dnepr river. They will have drones too, and air defense close behind their advances. They will be coming in mass wave formations.
https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1639034209401704448
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 24 2023 15:42 utc | 9
@ Domerts | Mar 24 2023 15:11 utc | 8
I figure they have a good chance of success based on sheer mass alone… But really who knows, I sure as hell dont.
Those 80k troops are already committed in the Line, excluding the unconfirmed Strategic Reserve of 20k. They failed to protect the flanks of Bahkmut & Avdiivka, they failed to repel the double envelopment of Bahkmut & Avdiivka, they have failed to prevent the severing of multiple MSRs therefore dooming Bahkmut & Avdiika. They have failed to immediately mount a successful or any counter-attack to prevent the above.
RF has not 20k, but up to ~370k uncommitted troops in Operational & Tactical Reserve & deployed forward, not counting over 50 additional Regular Divisions, 500k+.
Yet:
Russian forces still get repelled according to Dima
So here is a story of two Colonels:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=endSrHfp64I
Col Marcus Reisner of the Austrian Army a month ago – he seems more on message now.
https://youtu.be/YwIc4cPWdEs
Colonel (Rtd) MacGregor who is clearly not on message.
Reading between the lines though both are saying the same thing. The difference is their assumption of Russian losses and the loss ratio between Ukraine and Russia. Reisner claims the UAF:RF loss ratio is 0.6:1 whereas MacGregor claims it is 8:1. And it seems to me that this is the key factor in understanding the dynamics of this war and the political decisions that are taken in relation to it.
Western policy makers and their advisors and intelligence services genuinely believe the Reisner ratio. Personally I simply do not consider in all the circumstances that is a credible number.
A hint to true numbers might be that Military Summary (if the numbers Dima quotes are valid) states that there are c around 50 Brigades massed around Bakhmut – but with a total of only 80,000 men. That is around half the manpower they should possess.
Posted by: marcjf | Mar 24 2023 15:50 utc | 11
Military Summary seems to have slightly altered its tone. It sounds as if most of Ukr. forces near Bakhmut are poised to be defensive, denial or limited advance units. This sounds different from a huge counteroffensive.
Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 24 2023 15:57 utc | 12
Warmongering Westminster has raised the stakes in Ukraine by sending deplete uranium shells for the Ukrainian forces to fire from their tanks, these DU shells were used extensively in the illegal war in Iraq and led to many Iraqi’s developing cancers whilst other had children born with defects.
The rounds are radioactive and scientists believe their toxic effects on human health can continue to be felt long after conflicts have ended.
Unsurprisingly the Kremlin will react on this if needs be.
“Russia has previously warned it would regard the use of depleted uranium in Ukraine as a ‘dirty bomb’.
Kremlin official Konstantin Gavrilov said in January: “If Kyiv is supplied with such shells for NATO heavy military equipment, we will consider this as the use of dirty nuclear bombs against Russia with all the ensuing consequences.””
https://declassifieduk.org/britain-supplying-depleted-uranium-rounds-to-ukraine/
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 24 2023 15:58 utc | 13
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 24 2023 14:36 utc | 2
The truth is that RF will probably put up with almost anything and simply clean up as best they can, the shitquake echoing throughout western Ponzi finance is the real sound of victory.
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 24 2023 16:00 utc | 14
Oh yeah the Famous Hollywood Counteroffensive.
The one where Tom Cruise flies through while The Terminator and Rambo clean house on the ground.
Joe Biden will probably join the Mad Max Caravan in his convertible and do doughnuts.
LoL
Posted by: Comandante | Mar 24 2023 16:05 utc | 15
@ young | Mar 24 2023 15:28 utc | 6
Russia did not advance much in Bakhmut this week.
Pardon ?
@ Tom Welsh | Mar 24 2023 15:33 utc | 7
Meanwhile the Ukrainians have been fighting with very few constraints except the increasing shortage of men and materiel.
No Air Defense Systems, tenuous shattered logistics, shortages of every kind, an amorphous Army majority press-ganged untrained & ill-equipped conscripts, remnants of regular formations merged into incohesive new understrength & under-equipped formations.
@ marcjf | Mar 24 2023 15:50 utc | 10
Reisner is a skilled Officer & professional briefer, yet his role is as a demonstrated presenter of propaganda. Not that Empire believes what he briefs, but so that we should.
Dima does nice maps, yet, to put it politely, has not a clue.
As you correctly partly identify that already committed 80k is made up of near useless conscripts & repeatedly reformed remnants of shattered & depleted regular units, re-constituted, yet again, understrength & under-equipped.
AFU fails to defend, fails to counter-attack, ’cause mud ? RF reduces Soledar, is about to reduce Bahkmut, has commenced reducing Avdiivka, continues to relentlessly advance … in the same mud ?
Hm …
As far as I can tell, what used to set this site apart from others was critical thinking skills. So, we should not be so quick to judge others as “trolls” if the only thing they’re making us uncomfortable with is the message.
A real troll just poops on the carpet and runs. Then just sneaks back into the bar a few minutes later, to look for “reactions.” Easy to recognize by the smell.
Now, in an attempt to exercise some of my own critical thinking, it seems that the source for this “80k” number is either the Wagner chief Prigozhin, or the ISW.
Prighozhin could be baiting the Ukrainians, and the ISW is tainted by the Kagans who basically run the show. Yes, the same Kagans who are knee deep in the shitfuckery since 2014 and Maidan.
Basically, I don’t believe either one of those sources. Yesterday I saw a screaming DPA video repeating the same “imminent counteroffensive” hot take.
My current process for trying to figure out what is really going on is to look at the Youtube mappers, including DPA but also Surivak, Theti, Weeb Union, and see if they’re all in agreement. I don’t have all day to do this, so I rely on the sharper MoA commenters to do some of the work for me.
But ultimately I am responsible for the work of filtering out western propaganda BS.
Posted by: Chris | Mar 24 2023 16:14 utc | 17
Blinken blinks.
“I think there’s going to be territory in Ukraine that the Ukrainians are determined to fight for on the ground; there may be territory that they decide that they’ll have to try to get back in other ways,” he said when asked whether the US backed president Volodymyr Zelensky’s goal of liberating Crimea.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-may-not-able-reclaim-144213358.html
Posted by: dh | Mar 24 2023 16:17 utc | 18
Posted by: Chris | Mar 24 2023 16:14 utc | 16
Sound thinking, respect. Prighozhin is indeed slinging bullpucky, it’s part of his job.
Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 24 2023 16:23 utc | 19
Question Barflies – If there really are 20 brigades gathered for a glorious counteroffensive….how many are sheep dipped NATO ?
Posted by: Exile | Mar 24 2023 16:24 utc | 20
Posted by: Outraged | Mar 24 2023 16:08 utc | 15
I do like Military summary / Dima on his maps, but sometimes he goes completely nuts in his thinking. During the Transnistria episode, he was saying that Russians need to gather a force and no matter the losses land SW of Odessa and take Odessa and save Transnistria. That was out of whack.
When it comes to the “counteroffensive” narrative, it’s just a narrative, marketing stuff. What’s going on the ground is that every day waiting UAF get weaker and weaker, they lost what, 6 tanks from their 100 tanks (or 200?) tanks from their supposed counter-offensive force around Bakhmut in one day.
Maybe the truth with this offensive is that they are attacking every day, they tried to attack south of Ivanovske to get more clearance for the road between Konstantinovka/Bakhmut. Well, anyway, there’s so much fog. Maybe the Russians have another 50k mechanized/artillery/airpower force hidden behind Soledar ready to pounce on the Ukrainians once they get stalled in Krasna Gora or Klischeevka.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 24 2023 16:25 utc | 21
Posted by: dh | Mar 24 2023 16:17 utc | 17
Yeah, no one probably cares what Blinken thinks at this point. White house and Pentagon can go scr#w themselves.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 24 2023 16:26 utc | 22
@21 “..no one probably cares what Blinken thinks at this point.”
Maybe not but his public announcements are highly significant IMO.
Posted by: dh | Mar 24 2023 16:29 utc | 23
Question Barflies – If there really are 20 brigades gathered for a glorious counteroffensive….how many are sheep dipped NATO ? Posted by: Exile | Mar 24 2023 16:24 utc | 19
A good bet is that all fancy, expensive equipments will have NATO ” volunteers operating. Poles, Eastern Europeans, some Anglospheric nuts and crackers. Sane people and professionals will not be in the suicide squads. Several thousands, may be?
Posted by: KitaySupporter | Mar 24 2023 16:30 utc | 24
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 24 2023 14:36 utc | 2
Thanks for the BMA link. One thing that caught my eye was his observation that the Brits are being used by Uncle Sam as a shield. Let them take the heat for the DU rounds going to Ukraine, not Pudding-for-brains.
Well, that does sound ominous for Old Blighty. When they run out of Steppe-trash to use as meat, it may be the Brits next. Of course, it will be the Poles, Germans before, so if you’re sitting in a pub in Manchester, don’t get too anxious about it just yet.
Posted by: Chris | Mar 24 2023 16:33 utc | 25
Response to outraged @ 1:
It could possibly be that Bakhmut is already a done deal militarily; that the Russians are moving on past Bakhmut while leaving a smaller force behind in Bakhmut itself to do clean up which would then take a while. We should expect the entire Uki’ front to collapse within the next few months.
Posted by: Bobby | Mar 24 2023 16:38 utc | 26
@ Chris | Mar 24 2023 16:14 utc | 16
There are many categories of troll, not merely poop-n-run. In any case, perceive none on this thread as yet ?
@ unimperator | Mar 24 2023 16:25 utc | 20
Maybe the truth with this offensive is that they are attacking every day, they tried to attack south of Ivanovske to get more clearance for the road between Konstantinovka/Bakhmut.
If the AFU was attacking every day, yet failing to seize & hold ground, or merely promptly repulsed, they would be taking identifiable mass manpower & materiel losses on each occasion, as a result. Not occurring. Hence, no unreported failed consequential attacks. Not happening.
RF Operational priorities are force protection, force protection, economy of effort & lastly, force protection. RF ground forces directly engage only where other means of force projection & combat power are unable/unavailable/or unsuitable to fulfill the desired goal.
tweet (w/image):
The British are testing how close they can get to Crimea. They really are looking for a way to kick off a broader war…
The British decided to make a daring demonstration and flew up to Sevastopol with their reconnaissance aircraft, accompanied by two fighters.
https://twitter.com/GraphicW5/status/1639297425692131336
Note escorts.
Posted by: too scents | Mar 24 2023 16:45 utc | 28
If a Grand Offensive by Ukraine is looming, why is Blinken blinking?
What Military Summary ( and Wagner) are talking about sounds a bit like relabeling or reframing what already exists – with the excuse of getting some new stuff. It sounds like 60K forces across a broad front with 20K in reserve and some new tanks, etc. If they succeed, it will be the Spring Counter Offensive. If it doesn’t, a new offensive will be promised.
Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 24 2023 16:51 utc | 29
Eighthman | Mar 24 2023 16:51 utc 28
“If a Grand Offensive by Ukraine is looming, why is Blinken blinking?”
I was wondering the same thing. It is possible he wants to lower expectations in Kiev. Or perhaps he is testing the water in Congress? He doesn’t come out with a statement like that for no reason.
Posted by: dh | Mar 24 2023 16:59 utc | 31
Republicofscotland #12,
While I could continue to argue about radiological reality until Hell freezes over, I must concede that the irony is delicious. About half a year ago the Ukraine, NATO and the Pentagon were spewing bovine scatology about Russia was preparing to use “dirty bombs” against the Ukraine. Folks like me were pointing out how difficult it would be to assemble a device with enough radioactive material to actually result in a significant radiological hazard. We could cite the fact that Russia was compelled to utilize Polonium-210 with a half-life of only 138 days to implement Vladimir Putin’s preferred method to assassinate dissidents in foreign countries. Even with short lived, highly radioactive Po-210, it has been necessary to actually inject a pellet of the radiological poison into the victims. Any dirty bomb that might be capable of seriously contaminating a significant area would require tons of radioactive isotopes that would necessarily have relatively short half-lives measured in months, years or maybe decades. Now the dirty bomb propaganda will come back to bite Ukraine, NATO and the US in the ass.
Just FYI, if DU weapons are used in Ukraine (and it is possible that DU munitions already have been used), the radioactivity from an isotope with a half-life of over four billion years will be so minimal you will find it difficult to prove it using a simple Geiger counter.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Mar 24 2023 17:09 utc | 32
In yesterday’s Ukraine thread, I posted about the Iskander system (#13 here). My key messages were: Sizeable stock; Strategic system rarely used so far**; Low probability that RF runs out of these; Nuclear capability; They are saved for VIP targets throughout Europe, I guess.
Today appeared footage of the bombardment of UA’s elite regiment in Khmelnitsky. Note the tremendous velocity and near vertical descent. That’s most likely no cruise missile.
Iskander M is able to reach Mach 6+ on its descent from up to 100 km height (where it is beyond strategic missile interception’s reach). The homing-in is a challenge for conventional AD, both because of the near-vertical final leg of its (not strictly ballistic) trajectory and the speed.
**Ukrainian sources said 6 month ago that RF had already fired Iskanders worth 2.3 bln. USD, 3 million per piece (=760 units). IMO they are wrong by a factor close to 20 just to claim RF’s exhaustion for their donors. May turn out a fatal error, including for the European financiers.
Posted by: OttoE | Mar 24 2023 17:11 utc | 33
Posted by: Outraged | Mar 24 2023 15:42 utc | 9
.. Those 80k troops are already committed in the Line, excluding the unconfirmed Strategic Reserve of 20k. They failed to protect the flanks of Bahkmut & Avdiivka, they failed to repel the double envelopment of Bahkmut & Avdiivka, …
Beside of estimating current chances of RF forces to finally encircle that 2 towns (that Avdiivka location daily firing into Donetz-City), there may be a need to discuss the further US/UK-like focus on the Black Sea coast (Crimea, Odessa, Asow Sea), means the new possibly planned “attacks” towards that regions by any enhanced US-like SAT/AirScan/Drone and rocket attacks.
That’s the current on-going war by US-Intelligence and HIMARs-far-Range capabilities and provocations …
Posted by: spare_truth | Mar 24 2023 17:30 utc | 34
The DU announcement by UK is seriously worrying as crossing into the point of no return. Russia cannot afford not to respond if that happens. We have observed the response patterns – never tit for tat, but asymmetric and controlled moving further up the pain dial. Giving Brits’ MoD a non-nuclear Kinzhal business card would be long overdue, though that might be the Article 5 trigger that the neocons hope for to officially drag NATO and rest of US vassals into multi-front war with Russia.
However, some things don’t add up. DU makes the soil where they are used and buried unlivable with nary a possbility of workable farmland. Not the ideal scenario to rebuild after the conflict is sorted out.
Note that Elensky sold off alot of fertile lands to Western entities and for them, killing off or dispersing the pro-Russians living there is just business. They need the lands intact and radiation-free in order to reap the benefits later. This is what doesn’t add up, if the West is really following through with DU on ukr soils it means they’ve given up on the investments for scorch earth tactics just to deal more damage to Russia. Otherwise it’s a bluff/bait for Russian reaction but they have no intention or most importanly, the balls to attempt another Yugoslavia scenario against Russia.
I lean towards the bluff move but then it only applies to rational and sovereign actors. The crazies and their yesmen are impossible to predict after all.
Posted by: _newbie_ | Mar 24 2023 17:34 utc | 35
On DU ammunition: The radiation discussion is secondary. Yes, inhalation of vaporized oxide plants mutagenic material in the body and dwells there long time. This affects the combatants the most. Yet by orders of magnitude worse is the posioning potential of the heavy metal, having potential to be mutagenic and to affect the nervous- and reproduction- systems (source: German GESTIS database). Battlefields will be lost for produce making (export) for many decades. I’m not sure whether that can be in the interest of the novel Blackrock owners of Ukrainian soil. Rather, it is a scorched earth approach indirectly hinting to the fact that they have no illusions to ever gain hold of their new real estate assets in 404. – On a second tit-for-tat thought, once exposed, RF forces could use DU around Lwow and Kiew, in case Poland decides to enter the game physically. A “nuclear” response of sorts. I’d guess RF has plenty of DU, easy to by from Kazakhstan with 45% of world production.
Posted by: OttoE | Mar 24 2023 17:40 utc | 36
Chris | Mar 24 2023 16:14 utc | 16
The 80K figure probably came from this source. “Military Summary” (Yuri, If I am not mistaken)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRiqmjaaFNs
****
too scents | Mar 24 2023 16:45 utc | 27
There were four UK planes (Spy planes not the Typhoons) reported earlier at the same time (3 transponders off). However, there were also reported new explosions towards Sevastopol. As well as an attack by maritime drone-boats.
https://avia-pro.net/news/opublikovano-polnoe-video-ataki-branderov-na-bazu-chernomorskogo-flota-rossii
You can also check out HI Sutton for descriptions of them.
http://www.hisutton.com/New-Ukraine-Maritime-Drone.html
***
So the UK is attacking Russia directly now? As they are the ones who supplied the boats and presumably directed them?
Rather stupid I wouléd have thought.
****
OT but the comments are worth repeating – cool.
NEW. Iran urges France to listen to the protesters, and avoid violence.
(The insider Newspaper)
*
Maria Zakharova: “When will Macron start supplying weapons to French citizens to maintain the country’s democracy and sovereignty?
@ Bobby | Mar 24 2023 16:38 utc | 25
Concur.
Bahkmut is an AFU forlorn hope, an RF fait accompli. ‘Tis militarily over bar the surrender/reduction & counting, post consolidation.
AFU Losses in manpower & materiel to relieve it would be excessive & pointless given the balance of forces. Pyrrhic. RF would likely be very satisfied should AFU attempt to do so.
Months may be too pessimistic.
@ too scents | Mar 24 2023 16:45 utc | 27
@ Stonebird | Mar 24 2023 17:42 utc | 36
Would appear Perfidious Albion has, once again, whilst reminiscing of long past glories, failed to re-evaluate the current Situ properly.
John Bull is diabetic, suffering crippling gout & liver disease, destitute, sporting a soiled, threadbare waistcoat & well past his prime.
Desirous of Southern England turned into radioactive slag ?
Maria Zakharova ? Feel the burn. Ouch! lol
@ OttoE | Mar 24 2023 17:11 utc | 32
Trivial, imprecise, kinetic impact & blast, but a minor flesh wound. /s
PS ProTip. You can link to embedded links within MoA. For example, I’ve right clicked on ’32’ and copied the link to your post @ OttoE | Mar 24 2023 17:11 utc | 32
and posted here. Or, the same for your (#13 here). Hence you can directly link within a post, to any post on MoA back to circa 2005. Always do a preview test to confirm functionality, can be a little flaky, & will break if early thread posts are renumbered due b ‘cleaning-up’ in a thread. As it does, alas, by example, with the link I made to (#13 here). (Which you’re likely already aware of) 😉
SY keeps his promise. Deepthroat had more than a mouthful
Interviewed by China Daily
Seymour Hersh makes new Nord Stream sabotage claim
The Pulitzer Prize winner has alleged the US blew up the pipelines because it was unhappy with a lack of German support for Ukraine
US President Joe Biden ordered the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines because he was unhappy with the level of support provided by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, veteran investigative journalist Seymour Hersh has claimed.
Hersh first accused Washington of destroying the key European energy route in an article released in February, and made more allegations in an interview with the China Daily newspaper published on Friday.
“The [US] president was afraid of Chancellor Scholz not wanting to put more guns and more arms [forward for Kiev]. That’s all. I don’t know whether that it was anger or punishment, but the net effect is that it cut off a major power source through Western Europe,” Hersh claimed.
Despite attempts by the US to deny its involvement in the Nord Stream attack, “Europe is in crisis now” and Biden will receive “a lot of criticism for what he did” in the coming months, the journalist argued.
The Pulitzer Prize winner alleged that “the people that were initially asked to do the job” of destroying the pipelines were contacted by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan towards the end of 2021.
The initial purpose of mining Nord Stream 1 and 2, built to deliver Russian gas to Europe through Germany, was “to give the [US] president an option to say to [Russian] President Putin, ‘If you go to war [in Ukraine], we’re going to destroy the pipelines,’” Hersh claimed.
Biden himself publicly confirmed that stance but “unfortunately, those people in the Western press seemed to have forgotten,” the journalist stated[.{ (emphasis added)
RT
Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 24 2023 18:00 utc | 39
Ukrainian counter-offensive ‘will shock the world’ – US adviser
Kiev’s forces will be in better shape than they were a year ago, Dan Rice has predictedhe Ukrainian military is poised to unleash a massive offensive against Russian troops in the coming weeks, which will stun the global community, an American adviser to Kiev’s top general claimed on Thursday.
Speaking in an interview with the Ukrainian daily New Voice, Dan Rice, an Iraq War veteran who now serves as an adviser to Valery Zaluzhny, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, claimed Russia had encountered serious hurdles while trying to gain control of the key Donbass city of Artyomovsk, known in Ukraine as Bakhmut.
In recent weeks, Russian forces have captured several villages around the strategic logistical hub, with Evgeny Prigozhin, chief of the Wagner Private Military Company, claiming the group was in control of 70% of the city.[.]
RT
Sure and with a yawn. Where are the Dollar Tree toy-guns?
Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 24 2023 18:08 utc | 40
Posted by: Stonebird | Mar 24 2023 17:42 utc | 36
Thanks for that correction, it was Military summary, not DPA that I saw that number.
I think the narrative is being shaped for an attempt to attack Crimea; Stinkin’ Blinken’s comments could also be part of that to loosen the vigilance in that area and deceive.
Posted by: ChrisFromGA | Mar 24 2023 18:18 utc | 41
Dan Rice, an Iraq War veteran who now serves as an adviser to Valery Zaluzhny
Any Barfly know Dan Rice‘s military background ?
Posted by: Exile | Mar 24 2023 18:26 utc | 42
The DU announcement by UK is seriously worrying as crossing into the point of no return. Russia cannot afford not to respond if that happens. We have observed the response patterns – never tit for tat, but asymmetric and controlled moving further up the pain dial. Giving Brits’ MoD a non-nuclear Kinzhal business card would be long overdue, though that might be the Article 5 trigger that the neocons hope for to officially drag NATO and rest of US vassals into multi-front war with Russia.
Posted by: _newbie_ | Mar 24 2023 17:34 utc | 34
Nuclear theory says if you are going to attack, you have to go all out and without any threats or warning, so that there is as little time and possibility for response as possible.
Although, of course, we just watched Russia getting salami sliced for more than a year, but this is through a proxy — that is the one weakness a major power has, a non-nuclear proxy that it can’t annihilate because of the taboo, and in Russia’s case it is a particularly deep weakness because it is Ukraine, i.e. Russians, even if brainwashed.
So if RU is going to make the UK pay, that means totally glassing it. No symbolic bombing of individual targets to send a message — it’s either total annihilation or nothing, otherwise all the nukes will be launched in the other direction (they have been looking for a pretext for it for a while). They absolutely deserve it — the ruling class for everything it has done in the last several centuries, the masses for being such sheep and never once rebelling seriously since the Middle Ages — and not much of value will be lost other than through the unfortunate fact that the British looted all kinds of cultural artifacts and treasures from all over the world, and those will be destroyed.
The Ukraine war provides a fortunate opportunity to create cover for a launch — normally if you are going to attack with ICBMs and SLBMs, a first strike is hard to do undetected as there are all kinds of early warning systems. So the enemies can launch everything before your missiles have had a chance to destroy their stuff on the ground. Getting planes in the air would be alarming too — e.g. if NATO suddenly does a mass take off for a ALCM attack on Russia, that will be a clear signal before the missiles are even launched. But if RU gets strategic bombers and MiG-31Ks in the air ostensibly for a particularly massive missile attack on UA, but those in fact all carry hypersonic missiles that fly to the UK, maybe that can be concealed for sufficiently long — it will only take a few minutes to reach the UK. I don’t have the technical details, but hypersonics are supposed to be hard to track by radar because of the plasma cloud around them.
The big questions are:
1) Will the US launch everything in response. I’ve seen prominent Russian figures openly discuss this claiming that there will be no such full launch because there is no point — there is nothing left to defend, so why die over it? I am not so sure about that, but it is notable that such claims are made in public.
2) Can Russia disable the submarines before they launch. The UK has four, with 16 Tridents each. At any given moment at least one of them is in the base in Clyde, so it will be destroyed on the ground. Perhaps two. Can the other two be track and destroyed out at sea? No idea. Rumors are that is what Poseidon is actually for, but nobody has the classified info on real capabilities.
3) Can a salvo of 32-48 Tridents be shot down before the MIRVs are released? How many of the MIRVs can be shot down? Again, no idea.
But that is just speculation, past performance is the best predictor of future actions, and that means Putin will once again not do anything.
Given how Kharkov and Kherson went, one has not choice but to be deeply skeptical about the preparedness of the Russian strategic forces to provide a decisive solution to these problems. It is true that the strategic forces received most of the investment since the USSR collapsed, which is why the conventional ones decayed so much relative to the Soviet levels of combat readiness, so maybe the people in the strategic forces are really really elite, know what they’re doing and are ready for action. Maybe. But Kharkov was such a debacle clearly caused by deep rot at the very top, which presumably has affected everything else too, that again, one has to be skeptical…
Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 24 2023 18:31 utc | 43
Note that Elensky sold off alot of fertile lands to Western entities and for them, killing off or dispersing the pro-Russians living there is just business. They need the lands intact and radiation-free in order to reap the benefits later. This is what doesn’t add up, if the West is really following through with DU on ukr soils it means they’ve given up on the investments for scorch earth tactics just to deal more damage to Russia. Otherwise it’s a bluff/bait for Russian reaction but they have no intention or most importanly, the balls to attempt another Yugoslavia scenario against Russia.
Posted by: _newbie_ | Mar 24 2023 17:34 utc | 34
No, they don’t need the lads radiation-free, that is a misunderstanding.
They need the lands.
Food will still be produced and sold. To the masses. The people that matter will not be eating that food, theirs will be (likely already is anyway) sourced from other clean places, reserved for them.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 24 2023 18:34 utc | 44
In his own words:
Daniel Rice, MBA, MSed, MS
(USMA 1988)
Co-President, Thayer Leadership
Experience
Dan is the Co-President of Thayer Leadership and a 1988 graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. He is also President of the American University Kyiv, powered by Arizona State University, the first American accredited University in Ukraine. Dan is the Special Advisor to the Commander in Chief Ukraine Armed Forces General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi and has been traveling between Washington, D.C. and Kyiv throughout the war. He appears regularly on CNN with Erin Burnett to speak about the Russian invasion of Ukraine and publishes often through Small Wars Journal and Newsmax.
In 2010, Dan co-founded Thayer Leadership along with four other West Point graduates with the mission of bringing the world to West Point and bringing West Point leadership to the world. Over the past 13 years, Thayer has grown steadily, becoming one of the Top 40 leader development companies in the world according to Training Industry. As a lifelong learner, he has earned three Masters degrees and recently completed his Doctoral classes.
He is a graduate of Airborne, Ranger, and Jungle Schools; and served two 1-year tours in the Middle East. After completing his Army commitment, Dan entered the private sector where he served as Chief Marketing Officer for a $500 million medical device manufacturer; Managing Director of a $10 billion investment firm; Co-Founder of a private equity firm in Iraq, and Co-Founder of a solar hybrid company in Afghanistan.
In 2004, Dan voluntarily joined the New York National Guard as an Infantry Captain to deploy to Iraq, where he served for 1-year as a Civil Affairs Officer at Forward Operating Base Danger in Tikrit. He was awarded the Purple Heart and cited by his brigade commander for “courage on the field of battle.”
Scholarly Work/Publications/Awards
Dan has been published in the Wall Street Journal, Small Wars Journal, and Chief Executive magazine. In 2013, he published and co-authored his first book, West Point Leadership: Profiles of Courage, which features 200 of West Point graduates who have helped shape our nation. The book received 3 literary awards from the Independent Book Publishers Association plus an award from the Military Society Writers of America (MSWA). Dan has appeared frequently on various news networks including CNN, FOX News, FOX & Friends, Bloomberg TV, NBC, MSNBC, The Today Show, and NewsMax.
Education
Ed.D., ABD, University of Pennsylvania, Graduate School of Education (2022)
MS.Ed., Leadership & Learning, University of Pennsylvania, Graduate School of Education, 2020
M.S., Integrated Marketing Communications, Medill Graduate School, Northwestern University, 2018
M.B.A., Kellogg Graduate School of Management, Northwestern University, 2000
B.S., National Security, United States Military Academy, 1988
the lead story online in the NYTimes:
U.S. Arms Production Can’t Keep Up as Ukraine War Drains Supply
The flow of arms to Ukraine has exposed a worrisome lack of production capacity in the United States that has its roots in the end of the Cold War.
America’s tax dollars and trillion dollar military budget hard at work. doing what exactly?
Posted by: rjb1.5 | Mar 24 2023 18:39 utc | 46
@42 Shadowbanned,
My thought is that Russia has found a way to marry their state-of-the-art air defense technology with their ICBMs, such that a first strike on Russia would be effectively met by a Russian counterstrike aimed not at destroying Western infrastructure but at destroying all the inbounds while they are still on a ballistic trajectory. Russia would still have enough nuclear weapons left over to severely punish the West, but the West would have shot its bolt, leaving nothing behind for a counter-counterstrike.
Posted by: Intelligent Dasein | Mar 24 2023 18:50 utc | 47
OttoE # 35:
As an exercise for the astute student, please calculate the quantity of Uranium that is naturally present in the first half meter of soil in the Ukraine then compare that quantity to the amount of DU that is likely to be fired by a few dozen NATO tanks in the Ukraine.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Mar 24 2023 18:50 utc | 48
“RuAF fighters launched precision heavy glide bombs”
What is their CEP? Thanks!
Posted by: dadooronron | Mar 24 2023 18:56 utc | 49
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Mar 24 2023 18:50 utc | 47
Which would you chew for a bet?
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 24 2023 18:57 utc | 50
ChrisFromGA | Mar 24 2023 18:18 utc | 40
Lots of speculation on potential attacks and forces available.
Too much to be sure of anything., but it is the quality of the troops that will count in the final moments, not the quantity.
Will it be 1) territorials reduced and reformed ? (Unlikely as most of the Russian speakers have been used as cannon fodder and sent to the meat packers.)
will it be 2) new and “west” trained “Ukrainian” speakers who so far have had a cushy life in foreign countries? The “elite and reserves” of Zele?
Will it be 3) Ukies and mercenaries taken from different countries, with “special” volunteers from their armed forces? Probably lots, but without many USUK forces in the front lines.
*
3) seems to be the one as the US and their intel networks (including satellites) can be placed far away from the big badaboom. They probably think that spy planes and other hostile warfare elements are stiil invisible, because neither Blinken nor Biden has blurted out about them.
Aside; curious that Musk has stopped launching the newest iteration of starlink, as subject to “technical problems” at this juncture.
***
Next topic is “where”.
Plenty of choices, all subject to narrative pushing.
One thing is sure is that there will ALSO be movement in Syria, Azebaijan/Armeia, Moldova/transnistria and any other country they can use as diversions.
At the moment the question is what is the overall aim of a Ukie offensive? Regain territory? Space to breath? Start a larger war against Russia involving NATO (to rope the EU in), or to reduce Ukraine to a DUdesert. (The latter is the Neocons dream of making Ukraine into a permanent threat/problem for Russia, if they cannot plunder it themselves, or by corporate means.
****
OT
Question from my last line above, Do “derivatives” have a force majeure clause that could be used for non-payment? ie to avoid a financial breakdown by simply writing off most of the hidden derivatives of the small guys and dolls first?
This should be considered on the NOT Ukraine thread rather than here, but I am unlikely to reply in any case, as I do not know.
@ Outraged Post 44,
Many thanks for highlighting Dan Rice’s CV and Education Certificates.
As one of my professors admonished: ” It’s braun that counts, not the brain. Some graduating top of the class will fail in the job of life.”
In other words, using “common sense” does not require an MBA or Ph.D to know you are in the path of a rabbit or that a hammer will do the job. No need for a backhoe.
The US is faced with an empty bag, its banking sector in collapse and the EU is working on the 11th package of sanctions to close up the loopholes. Stop digging.
The middlemen will find new loopholes and whatever is left of EU’s industries require loopholes be kept open for the re-routed Russian oil.
Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 24 2023 19:07 utc | 52
Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 24 2023 18:31 utc | 42
.. But that is just speculation, past performance is the best predictor of future actions, and that means Putin will once again not do anything. ..
Thanks for your long statement @42 acc.to some of the worst scenes.
But pls. think about, if any Ukranian ground losses would have been confirmed on a “final peace day” by either side, that’s an ever on-going fight between the “West” (US/UK/EU) and the “East” (you jnow those), and will forever cause that “war” going ahead ..
May then have a look on further air-strikes that will for-sure occur within “the next days” in the Black Sea regions. The war is going on until you have hired some Snipers to eliminate the responsible evil persons.
Posted by: spare_truth | Mar 24 2023 19:08 utc | 53
Re #47,
Answer, 429eex6 kilograms or 420,000 tons.
Likely quantity of DU ammunition actually utilized might be 10 tons.
It is not enough to know how to do the math.
It is necessary to have the brains to actually do the math before spewing bovine scatology.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Mar 24 2023 19:10 utc | 54
LOL Russia is as usual 1 step behind
Ukraine reinforcing front-line with reserves, tapping troops trained in Europe — DPR head
According to Pushilin, Western countries, including the United States, are prodding Ukraine to stage a counteroffensive
https://tass.com/politics/1594231
Well why are you whining Russia? Why do you not bomb the incoming soldiers to the DPR border!?
Russia is so humiliated by now and they have no plan b….as usual.
Posted by: Zalon | Mar 24 2023 19:15 utc | 55
Given the non stop surveillance satellite, drones, eyes on ground, eavesdropping.
How do you put 20 brigades in place and associated logistical support and nobody’s aware?
Posted by: jpc | Mar 24 2023 19:22 utc | 56
re: Elmer Fudd | Mar 24 2023 19:10 utc | 53
Your analogy with the amount of uranium in the soil is meaningless because the clouds of uranium microparticles created by the firing and impact of Depleted Uranium munitions create a far more concentrated source of uranium that those created via exposure through uranium in soils.
Inhalation of these DU particles will irradiate the small clusters of cells that surround the particles with a dose many thousands of times more intense that would be received from a random particle of uranium from the soil. Which is why the residue from DU created lots of health problems that include malformations and birth defects in civilian populations that live in areas of Iraq where the US fired many tons of DU munitions.
Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 24 2023 19:25 utc | 57
“Given the non stop surveillance satellite, drones, eyes on ground, eavesdropping.
How do you put 20 brigades in place and associated logistical support and nobody’s aware?
Posted by: jpc | Mar 24 2023 19:22 utc | 55”
Tunnels like the VietCong?
Posted by: Comandante | Mar 24 2023 19:27 utc | 58
@ shadowbanned | Mar 24 2023 18:31 utc | 42
Interesting!
>> But Kharkov was such a debacle
But “no”.
Posted by: natokraine | Mar 24 2023 19:28 utc | 60
#56
My bad. Brain fart.
420,000 kilograms or 420 tons, not 420,000 tons
Re Perimetr #56
There you go defecating in your women’s underwear without thinking again.
You are correct that the Uranium oxide particles produced when the DU rounds hit armor will be far more problematic than Uranium oxide naturally present in the soil. However; except for inside burned out tanks, the Uranium oxide particles will quickly precipitate from the air to be deposited in the soil. You might want to plow the battlefields to get the Depleted Uranium thoroughly mixed with the natural Uranium, which is actually more radioactive than the DU.
Question for everyone on the forum?
How much Depleted Uranium ammunition has Russia used in the war?
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Mar 24 2023 19:36 utc | 61
Perimetr no. 58
Good, informative article.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Mar 24 2023 19:36 utc | 62
@ ThusspakeZarathustra | Mar 24 2023 19:36 utc | 61
You can find more DU than anyone wants at the contaminated super-fund site in Portsmouth Ohio.
https://www.energy.gov/pppo/portsmouth-site
Posted by: too scents | Mar 24 2023 19:40 utc | 63
None of us can know what it going on with the counter-offensive or Russian intentions.
Weather is as good an explanation as any as it appears to be pretty soggy around Bahkmut making operations outside of the paved urban area ineffective resulting on a concentration of the fight within the city.
We will find out in the next week or 2.
1) If there is a counter-attack that knocks the Russians back on anymore than a very temporary basis – that tells us (perhaps) that we give too much credibility to Russian capabilities and overestimate the damage to the AFU’s ability to build reserves and conduct large scale operations.
2) If there is no counter-attack or something that is feeble and just aimed at producing “rescue” video clips, then (perhaps) we can conclude that the Russians know what they are doing and the AFU has perhaps passed beyond that point where improvisation can produce sustained operations. Perhaps we can begin to suspect that Ukrainian high command may not even be aware of the true state of their own forces.
I think we just have to wait to find out. If I were to bet, it would be small stakes reflecting my lack of confidence and I would put that small bet on scenario 2.
Posted by: Dan Farrand | Mar 24 2023 19:42 utc | 64
unimperator | Mar 24 2023 16:25 utc | 20
“UAF get weaker and weaker, they lost what, 6 tanks from their 100 tanks (or 200?) tanks”
They seem to have lost many times more. About three days ago, there was a semi-official announcement on aftershock-news that over the night the Russian air force had preemptively attack those reserve columns. Has anybody heard news of that?
It also appears that Russian control over the field has been excellent. Not only countering massive strikes (like the ones in Crimea, which was it, three or four in the last four days?), but also preemptively strike gathering forces (‘feasts’, as Dima says : – ).
Today, this news item appeared on Aftershock:
“10:17 UTC
On March 23-24, in the Zaporozhye direction, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine planned to launch a counteroffensive. According to the enemy’s plan, the main blow was to fall on the Orekhovsky sector: a strike force was created in the city up to a reinforced battalion tactical group.
According to @ZSU_Hunter_2_0, the command of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the RF Armed Forces decided to inflict massive fire damage on exposed enemy positions and warehouses. The offensive was thwarted before it even started.
From 21.00 to midnight on March 22, hotels and schools were hit in the city, which were used to accommodate personnel of both the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the recently formed assault brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine “Chervona Kalina” – in total, more than 20 targets were covered.
Several warehouses with ammunition, artillery shells, ATGMs, and equipment parking were put out of action.
Estimated losses of the enemy reach half a thousand people killed and wounded. The Internet was turned off in the city to prevent information leaks. The wounded are taken out through Zaliznichnoe towards Gulyaipole.”
[source: aftershock-news,
Peace enforcement. Day 394 (March 24, 2023)
google translation]
Posted by: @vec | Mar 24 2023 19:43 utc | 65
@ Perimetr, §58 & ThusspakeZarathustra, §61:
But read Elmer Fudd´s posts, §60 and others.
He´s correct. It´s the word “uranium” that spooks everyone, because of their ignorance of radiochemistry.
Posted by: John Marks | Mar 24 2023 19:43 utc | 66
There you go defecating in your women’s underwear without thinking again.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Mar 24 2023 19:36 utc | 60
Amazing what primitive patriarchal masculinity is on display on this blog. Anything not 150% masculine is to be derided. If you’re not a man (alpha), you should be abused. I wonder whether you ever got out of High School; that’s the kind of thing the kids say there.
Posted by: laguerre | Mar 24 2023 19:45 utc | 67
John Mearsheimer: The FOOLISHNESS of the UNITED STATES
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7lTOJXjfCM
Posted by: Flavius | Mar 24 2023 19:46 utc | 68
RE: Elmer Fudd | Mar 24 2023 19:36 utc | 60
Let me guess, you are a nuclear engineer? Another true believer with a vested interest in believing.
And also an asshole. Take a trip to Fallujah and convince all the doctors and mothers who suffered miscarriages and have children with birth defects that DU is innocuous.
Toxic legacy of US assault on Fallujah ‘worse than Hiroshima’
Iraq records huge rise in birth defects
Iraq, 15 years on: A toxic US legacy
Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 24 2023 19:46 utc | 69
Posted by: Outraged | Mar 24 2023 15:42 utc | 9
Those 80k troops are already committed in the Line, excluding the unconfirmed Strategic Reserve of 20k
I remember that up til about a month ago the AFU already had about 80K troops in and around Bakhmut. Then they began withdrawing many of those troops, leaving the poorly trained cannon fodder to defend the city. Did the Ukies just pull those brigades back a way and attempt to reconstitute them, and that is what accounts for the 80K number? What seems obvious is that Ukraine cannot undertake more than one offensive, if any, so they have to pick and choose – Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Zaporhyze? Pick one and watch the others fall.
Posted by: Mike R | Mar 24 2023 19:54 utc | 70
Deployment map shows 5 mechanized brigades south of Cherkassy, west of Kremenchuk. Not sure whether they are “new” formations or just sent to rebuilt in rear, can’t find too much information on TG except they might be new formations built out of recently mobilized conscripts.
Either way, you can see on the map that main bunch of units are stacked in Bakhmut, west of Bakhmut, NW of Krasna Gora and NW of Soledar.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 24 2023 19:55 utc | 71
Kinda jumps out from Dan Rice‘s Bion
After completing his Army commitment, Dan entered the private sector where he served as Chief Marketing Officer for a $500 million medical device manufacturer; Managing Director of a $10 billion investment firm; Co-Founder of a private equity firm in Iraq, and Co-Founder of a solar hybrid company in Afghanistan.
Posted by: Exile | Mar 24 2023 20:00 utc | 72
NATO has admitted they can only partly train 40k Ukies per year. Per year. Any safe or viable training grounds in Banderastan ? Please, do the math.
@ Likklemore | Mar 24 2023 19:07 utc | 51
Most welcome. What can we deduce from his omissions, admissions & disjointed bio timeline re a possible profile ? Quite some meat there. Purely speculative mental exercise, for the lolz …
Obvious one: A former National Guard O-3, Civil Affairs Officer, does not advise the AFU CinC on military matters. Hence, what’s his likely role/function ?
To be accepted into WP in 80’s, well connected & sponsored. Fulfilled his USMA graduate service obligation & moved on. Non-careerist. Subsequent big ticket Executive corporate roles.
Establishes firms in Iraq & Afghanistan (When ? Front Companies ? In War-zones). Voluntarily returns to duty via NG as Civil Affairs Officer in Iraq War(early ’04 ?), yet almost certainly previous Regular Army O-3, graduate of Airborne, Ranger, & Jungle Schools; served two 1-year tours in the Middle East(deliberately obscured). Poor fit, poor utilization, unless …
He is also President of the American University Kyiv … the first American accredited University in Ukraine. Hm …
‘Special Advisor’ to the Commander in Chief Ukraine Armed Forces General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi and has been traveling between Washington, D.C. and Kyiv throughout the war. He appears regularly on CNN with Erin Burnett to speak about the Russian invasion of Ukraine and publishes often through Small Wars Journal and Newsmax. Appeared frequently on various news networks including CNN, FOX News, FOX & Friends, Bloomberg TV, NBC, MSNBC, The Today Show, and NewsMax.Published on Graduate bio’s.
Somehow, doubt he needs a night light beside his bed. 😉
@ Mike R | Mar 24 2023 19:54 utc | 69
Did the Ukies just pull those brigades back a way and attempt to reconstitute them, and that is what accounts for the 80K number?
Yes. Didn’t magically appear from Hobbit burrows. 😉
From NW, N, S, SW & W. Thinned the Contact Line on all fronts over past weeks to get to 80K localized re Bahkmut, or it would have fallen even sooner. Insufficient manpower, insufficient forces. RF is already probing AFU in Kherson Front. If RF chooses to increases pressure on FEBA from N/NE, or S or SE ?
Cheers.
Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 24 2023 19:46 utc | 68
RE: Elmer Fudd | Mar 24 2023 19:36 utc | 60
Let me guess, you are a nuclear engineer? Another true believer with a vested interest in believing.
And also an asshole. Take a trip to Fallujah and convince all the doctors and mothers who suffered miscarriages and have children with birth defects that DU is innocuous.
The apologist for US & UK pollution of Iraq with DU probably suffers from cognitive dissonance and some sort of guilty conscience. What else can explain the obsessive and repetitive posting of the same misinformation?
Posted by: Lengai | Mar 24 2023 20:19 utc | 74
Likklemore | Mar 24 2023 19:07 utc | 51
@ Outraged Post 44,
thanks,
looks like rice started an ‘isw-lite’ capitalizing on his west point ring knocking credential…..
infantry officer who collects degrees!
west point culture indeed!
Posted by: paddy | Mar 24 2023 20:21 utc | 75
In regard to his bio, having a Masters degree in Marketing Communication tells you what you need to know about his public statements.
Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 24 2023 20:22 utc | 76
The apologist for US & UK pollution of Iraq with DU probably suffers from cognitive dissonance and some sort of guilty conscience. What else can explain the obsessive and repetitive posting of the same misinformation?
Posted by: Lengai | Mar 24 2023 20:19 utc | 73
Not all are apologists. Some of those posters are government employees or worse, AI created posters.
Posted by: Ian2 | Mar 24 2023 20:23 utc | 78
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Mar 24 2023 19:10 utc | 53
Crikey, scientific notation, aloof!
Still, you didn’t express a preference for Ukrainian soil with or without the elemental signature of expended DU munitions. Was that an oversight made in good faith?
You’re not assuming, are you, that this mooted 10 tons of DU weapons residue would be distributed absolutely evenly across the entire surface of Ukraine, because that would be intellectually defective, to put it mildly.
A clever-clogs, such as yourself, is doubtless painfully aware that specious dross like that could be used in an attempt to lie about the environmental impact and health risks posed by all sorts of chemical or radioactive substances.
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 24 2023 20:25 utc | 79
Posted by: paddy | Mar 24 2023 20:21 utc | 74
Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 24 2023 20:22 utc | 75
It’s just all a joke. The rot and ineptitude reaches so far into the most important western decision making structure. Nato war in Ukraine is run by a marketing manager. All the operations are designed based on PR goals, that’s if we give this Rice dude benefit of doubt. Chances are, he’s simply inept and phony Iraq war veterans are best there are. If Hunter can run a gas company, why not.
Peak irony.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 24 2023 20:27 utc | 80
Flavius no. 67
The “economic hurricane” Mearsheimer mentioned in that video is gathering traction:
“Germany’s Deutsche Bank has led a sell-off in European banking shares amid mounting fears another bank could slip into trouble after the emergency merger of UBS and Credit Suisse last week.”
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Mar 24 2023 20:30 utc | 81
@ dadooronron | Mar 24 2023 18:56 utc | 48
“RuAF fighters launched precision heavy glide bombs”
What is their CEP? Thanks!
FAB-500 & UPAB-1500B-E & derivatives/variants, 500Kg & 1500Kg. For example:
KAB-1500LG-Pr-E (CEP 4-7M)
Guided bomb with a laser gyro-stabilized seeker and a penetrator warhead
The KAB-1500LG-Pr-E guided bomb with a laser gyro-stabilized seeker and a penetrator warhead refers to the precision-guided weapons and is designed to engage fixed small hardened and buried targets such as reinforced concrete shelters and command posts.
The KAB-1500LG-Pr-E is used singly or in salvo from frontline aircraft (fighter-bombers and attack aircraft) fitted with a laser illumination system or a simple sight to produce pre-targeting data (when a ground designator operator is used).
See: ROSOBONRONEXPORT, Models, Variants, Specs, PDFs.
@ Comandante | Mar 24 2023 19:27 utc | 57
HUGE’EM, hand cut tunnels, wide, tall & reinforced enough, with industrial grade ventilation & shoring for MBT’s & IFV & Trucks to pass through undetected …
Uranium is a deadly chemical toxin no matter the isotope.
One could compare it to deadly chemical toxin heavy metal called lead.
How many people think lead is safe?
Depleted uranium is also radioactive.
No one can remove all the highly radioactive nuclear weapon grade isotope U 235 from the U 238.
So for those who think DU uranium is not harmful, I would suggest eating and breathing DU dust daily to see how safe it is.
I do not think Russia is bluffing when it states that it will treat DU weapons in the same league as a dirty nuclear bomb due to it’s poisoning of the environment in what amounts to forever in human terms.
Posted by: JSM | Mar 24 2023 20:45 utc | 83
shadowbanned | Mar 24 2023 18:31 utc | 42
The UK’s pit bull is being pushed to the limit on the escalatory ladder short of a dirty bomb its enlisting depleted uranium artillery. With Ukranian flags flying from its church steeples it can conceive of no limit to its infamy and pretensions. This sick debauched faux democratic State deserves its “coup de grace” and its recumbent brainwashed population the agony of Ukraine no less!
Posted by: Rick | Mar 24 2023 20:50 utc | 84
Col Macgregor on Napolitano’s channel was asked about DU and replied he had not seen any reports about it being toxic in any way and that as far as he was concerned – it worked. Probably all true as he would have assiduously avoided any such reports so as not to have a flash of moral & ethical concern and guilt.
Posted by: digital dinosaur | Mar 24 2023 20:54 utc | 85
A Question To Ponder: The Z channel shows 5 foreign mercenaries deceased this week. All 5 were different nationalities.
Did they kill/identify a lot of these guys and pick out an assortment of different nationals? Or were they the most notable?
You see, I am skeptical of the idea that NATO guys will man tanks, armor and aircraft to any great degree for Ukraine. Suppose Ukr. was actually scrounging for foreigners?
Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 24 2023 21:04 utc | 86
@Outraged #37 – Thanks for explaning how to directly link to a previous post. One learns a lot here. Cheers to all teachers!
Posted by: OttoE | Mar 24 2023 21:07 utc | 87
Lt. General Kirillov, head of the Russian ABC troops, just today had a briefing regarding DU https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12461679@egNews
As for the amount of U in Ukrainian top soil I believe this is quite low, not much ancient bedrock present on top. Despite the fact that UA has some Uran deposits.
The big danger is due to toxicity and inhalation in dust form which subsequent radiation from within.
I am not sure, what the effect in soil would be. Has anyone ideas in which way U could be incorporated into plants and thus enter the food chain?
Posted by: BG13 | Mar 24 2023 21:14 utc | 88
“RF has not 20k, but up to ~370k uncommitted troops in Operational & Tactical Reserve & deployed forward, not counting over 50 additional Regular Divisions, 500k+.”
Who thinks RU is just hanging back on purpose? They have a lot of forces, but they’re not committing them to fight. I would hang back, hang back, hang back, and let UA grind themselves up – because they are obsessed with not losing territory so they’ll knock themselves out. Wait until they are weak and the western supplies are running low, and only then launch a large armor drive. Maybe this summer.
Posted by: GoFast | Mar 24 2023 21:40 utc | 89
Posted by: JSM | Mar 24 2023 20:45 utc | 82
Uranium is a deadly chemical toxin no matter the isotope.
One could compare it to deadly chemical toxin heavy metal called lead.
How many people think lead is safe?
Which begs the question: what about all that lead ammo that the conflict is leaving on the landscape?
Posted by: Mike R | Mar 24 2023 21:57 utc | 90
Elmer Fudd | Mar 24 2023 18:50 utc | 47 “…As an exercise for the astute student, please calculate the quantity of Uranium that is naturally present in the first half meter of soil in the Ukraine then compare that quantity to the amount of DU that is likely to be fired…”
1 ha = 10,000 m², 0.5 m deep = 5000 m³
soil 1.6 t/m³ -> 8,000 t
top soil average U content 1.63 ± 0.6 mg/kg -> say 2 g/t
8,000 t x 2 g/t = 16,000 g = 16 kg
One 105 mm shell contains 3.5 kg DU
=> Result: If on 1 ha just five 105 mm rounds are used, the U concentration doubles vs. the natural background
Posted by: OttoE | Mar 24 2023 22:05 utc | 91
As most here didn’t get Covid, I’m not surprised the war isn’t understood either. It’s a war to break Russia (decolonize they say) and impoverish Europe as it is not needed any longer without Russia. China selling thousands of drones to Ukraine and not giving any military assistance to Russia should give the game away but people here seem to be in denial.
Posted by: 2023 | Mar 24 2023 22:26 utc | 92
From TopWar RU
…Ukrainian serviceman [said] about 10 Su-35 aircraft attacked targets in the Sumy region on the evening of March 23. More than 10 gliding bombs were dropped on targets
…glide bombs can fly far, and aircraft do not enter the air defense zone…
…the losses as a result of evening strikes are being specified, they will be announced by the regional and city military administrations. Interestingly, information about air strikes on targets in the Sumy region was absent in the traditional morning report of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
…possible that the strikes were carried out on secret military facilities, which is why the Ukrainian authorities are slow to disclose details
Posted by: OttoE | Mar 24 2023 22:33 utc | 93
Posted by: Exile | Mar 24 2023 20:00 utc | 71
Grifters gonna grift.
Posted by: Lex | Mar 24 2023 22:36 utc | 94
The English state propaganda news broadcaster the BBC reporting the new Nazi’s Ukraine, copying the old Nazi’s by book burning every book in Ukraine that is written in Russian or mentions anything to do with Russia.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 24 2023 22:37 utc | 96
New Simplicius SitRep post up on his Substack…
SITREP 3/24/23: Offensive Paranoia!
Offensives, offensives everywhere. Or not.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-32323-offensive-paranoia
He covers Prigozhin’s and others’ notions about a Bahkmut “offensive”, with maps showing how much Wagner controls in Bahkmut.
He then mentions a new Russian microwave weapons which apparently is downing Ukrainian drones, followed by a discussion of a new Russian Defense Innovation Support Center being opened, and Medvedev’s claim that Russia is now building 1,500 tanks a year (new and upgraded,)
He then discusses the trope about why Russia isn’t hitting Ukrainian concentration points, showing that in fact they are.
He then discusses the rumors of Polish involvement and possible NATO intervention. I rely on Ritter’s discussion yesterday which basically trashed the notion that NATO is capable of doing ANYTHING in Ukraine.
He then mentions a UK spy drone escorted by two Brit fighters near Crimea – but with transponders on this time.
He mentions events in Syria, followed by further evidence of use of Russian JDAMs in Ukraine.
He discusses the number of Russian spy satellites, noting that Russia is coming close to having as many as the US.
He closes with some humor at General Milley’s expense.
Another must-read for barflies.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 24 2023 22:44 utc | 97
re: aquileia | Mar 24 2023 14:01 utc | 20
“Eventually, the Axis of Evil will be the entire world minus the U.S. and Israel.”
LOL !!!
Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 24 2023 22:44 utc | 98
Just popped into my inbox – well, it ‘glided through’ – lots of useful stuff
“Most of the Ukrainian army is already dead. Its best soldiers, trained in the United States, have either died or are out of action. Nobody cancels Ukrainian prowess, but Russia is likely to win anyway, thanks to overwhelming resources,” said the co-chair of the Center for American Security (AFPI), Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg. He believes that the most likely outcome of the conflict is a humiliating truce for Ukraine, as a result of which the country may cease to exist: “It’s time to divide Ukraine: everything east of the Dnieper will go to Russia, and everything to the west – to Poland. Historically, these two countries controlled present-day Ukraine.”
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-32323-offensive-paranoia
Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 24 2023 22:46 utc | 99
GoFast @ 88
Who thinks RU is just hanging back on purpose?
Maybe. Belarus is seriously threatened and the large force there is pinned, granted Belarus has MIGs with Kinzhal nukes now but I doubt RF wants to leave those as the only defense. NATO could declare war tomorrow, or force Russia’s hand with an attack on Sevastopol or the Black Sea fleet. Russia has to hold back for all out war, it can’t be ruled out, at least until they can consolidate the Donbas, push the AFU out into the open fields, and can start playing with a better hand, start testing NATO’s redlines for a change.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 24 2023 22:50 utc | 100