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March 13, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-61
Comments
Don’t waste your time with Driezin.
Driezin is mostly click bait. He has zero military background as far as I can tell.
As for his posts, they’re irrelevant as hell. 19 brigades is shit – and most likely composed of shit units and shit hardware. Russia will annihilate them.
As I said earlier, people forget the extra 200-300,000 troops Russia has available with all necessary hardware.
People bringing up Kherson is this context is just risible. Given the reality, Russia had every reason to redeploy from Kherson. Their only mistake was in allowing that situation to exist for ten months.
Morons can’t seem to grasp this.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 14 2023 5:39 utc | 101
Posted by: Dingo | Mar 14 2023 5:21 utc | 103
Posted by: Drake Schroeder | Mar 14 2023 5:29 utc | 104
No problem.
Posted by: Down South | Mar 14 2023 5:55 utc | 102
❗️ 🇷🇺🇺🇦 On AFU readiness for the offensive
Two Majors @dva_majors write that the AFU has stepped up the preparation of its units for the previously announced offensive. Paratroopers of the 95th Airborne Brigade are completing their training in Germany, and daily exercises are conducted in the Dnepropetrovsk and Zhytomyr regions.
According to their colleagues, the AFU are planning a counteroffensive after the spring thaw, and the most likely direction is Zaporozhye with a simultaneous landing on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region.
🔻 How is the AFU preparing for the offensive?
During the last weeks, the AFU has been actively preparing for the announced campaign. Almost everywhere in Ukraine there is a forced mobilisation of citizens and their subsequent sending to dumps in different regions. But, according to some reports, the active phase was postponed to May-June due to the lack of weapons and military equipment.
Moreover, some assault formations are not yet ready: training continues at military bases in the UK, Germany, Spain and the Czech Republic. In the German training centres, in addition to the 95th odshbr, there are personnel from the 47th obr, one of the battalions that was transferred to Konstantinovka.
The rest of the units are located in large training camps in the Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Rivne and Lvov regions. The formations of the new army corps are concentrated in the Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk regions.
🔻 How likely is the scenario of attacks in several directions at the same time?
Western curators await the results from the Ukrainian authorities. Armoured vehicles, artillery systems and dedicated missile weapons were delivered to the AFU for a reason, but for the specific purpose of defeating Russia.
In this case, the most politically and strategically appropriate option is an attack in the direction of Zaporozhye to cut off the land route to Crimea and access to the Sea of Azov. And to implement such a scenario in Kiev , they plan to carry out an offensive on a broad front against Melitopol and Tokmak .
At the same time, a diversionary attack is needed in other areas to immobilise Russian troops and prevent the transfer of reinforcements to the Zaporozhye region. One option being considered is a counter-offensive against Bakhmut .
Near the Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration, as well as near Konstantinovka with Chasov Yar , newly created formations with Western-made armoured vehicles are being built up (https://t.me/rybar/44367). However, this plan will require enormous resources, and the consequences if it fails will be catastrophic.
Why is it more cost-effective to attack Russian Armed Forces positions in the Kherson region?
Russian troops, after withdrawing to the left bank, left part of the contingent to defend the liberated territory of the Kherson region, and most of them were sent to reinforce other areas. The long length of the Dnieper complicates the protection of the left bank during small boat landings.
In recent months, the AFU has been using inflatable boats or speedboats almost every day to reconnoitre RF Armed Forces positions. At least one Bayraktar UAV operates in the air from the Shkolny airfield almost daily.
A couple of weeks ago, a new batch of ships was delivered to the port of Kherson, and engineering units of the 808th AFU pontoon bridge regiment were deployed near Ochakov and Berislav. And on the Kakhovka reservoir near Nikopol and Kamensky , there are at least 12 barges, which are easy to use for the transfer of personnel and equipment to Energodar.
🔻In case the active phase of the offensive begins, a simultaneous landing of troops along the entire length of the Dnieper from the Kinburn peninsula to Vasilyevka should be expected. In addition, a sharp increase in tactical aviation and drone flights from the Shkolny, Dolgintsevo, Kanatovo and Shirokoye airfields is possible.
Posted by: Down South | Mar 14 2023 5:58 utc | 103
Important for Artyomovsk:
The reserves that the Armed Forces of Ukraine throw to hold the city reach Bogdanovka and to the landings west of Dubovo-Vasilyevka. Heavy battles are going on there, the enemy bites into these settlements, realizing that these are the last frontiers before the lid of a large cauldron.
South of Wagner, they are actively pressing on the T0504 highway southeast of Krasnoye (Ivanovsky). This is the very road of death of the Nazis. The last one, on which something can be driven by the APU. Fighting continues in the forest plantation east of Khromovo and in the forest belts on the outskirts of the O0506 highway.
Wagner also seeks to expand the wedge driven along the E40 highway. They crossed the Duboviy Ovrag gully and continue moving along the Kudlin gully towards Orekhovo-Vasilyevka and broke through to the important height 224.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/37182
Posted by: Down South | Mar 14 2023 6:53 utc | 104
Update on a video we posted yesterday 📰
In France, right on the streets of the city of Cahors, a large-scale Orion 23 exercise was held to suppress pro-Russian militias
In French Cahors, exercises were held right on the streets of the city. The footage shows how the military, while ordinary citizens and cars are calmly moving along the streets, are working out the scenario developed by NATO. According to him, some pro-Russian militias rebelled in country X, located near the borders of Russia, and destabilized the political situation. To which the Alliance retaliates with a cleansing operation.
Up to 20 thousand people take part in large-scale military exercises Orion 23. The main goal is to practice actions in a high-intensity armed conflict. French Defense Minister Sebastian Lecorneau said that the simulation of major battles will affect both traditional land, sea and air, as well as new areas – cyberspace, space and the information environment.
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/48327
Posted by: Down South | Mar 14 2023 6:55 utc | 105
Posted by: Down South | Mar 14 2023 6:55 utc | 110
Good luck with that, France. Last I head you need a military to do that sort of thing. 🙂
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 14 2023 7:14 utc | 106
Instead, all they talk about us buying and shipping weapons. Because that is all they care about: redirecting as much taxpayers money to weapons manufacturers. Preferably US weapons manufacturers.
Never mind the soldiers. Or Ukraine. Or Germany.
Posted by: Marvin | Mar 13 2023 21:57 utc | 27
Indeed!
Last week I heard some politician criticising the German government on the radio news, because not one Euro of the 100 billion “Sondervermögen” was spent, yet. It was however explained that a lot of stuff has already been ordered from arms manufacturers, but that of course the production needs time – and that it’s only paid on delivery. So..the criticism was indeed not that nothing has been ordered (since it has been), but that no money was transferred, yet!
Posted by: Helmuth von Moltke | Mar 14 2023 7:15 utc | 107
Where to go from here on ?
Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 13 2023 20:21 utc | 12
The unfortunate answer.
The total destruction of Ukraine and turning it into a failed state that will bring down the EU and by default European economy and worse.
Going to be a lot of angry betrayed Ukraine naxi types afterwards.
Posted by: jpc | Mar 14 2023 7:23 utc | 108
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 14 2023 7:14 utc | 111
You can ask various African countries about the french military.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Mar 14 2023 7:39 utc | 109
@ jpc | Mar 14 2023 7:23 utc | 114
One is fairly sure that Ukraine will be the RF’s and Ukraine’s problem, not America’s or its European colonies’, afterward.
Posted by: John Kennard | Mar 14 2023 7:51 utc | 110
Posted by: Down South | Mar 14 2023 6:55 utc | 110
Yes, I saw that. very funny. didn’t realise the fighting was supposed to be in in eastern Europe. Cahors is a small town where nothing happens. The mayor probably agreed to get some media interest in the town (and also payments from the ministry of Defence).
Last I head you need a military to do that sort of thing. 🙂
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 14 2023 7:14 utc | 111
Classic American exceptionalist comment. Only America has power, even if it’s evil. France is about the only Western power which is NOT dependent on the US – though that’s not say that their military is enormous. It’s not needed for any sensible foreign policy (as Ukraine shows very well).
Posted by: laguerre | Mar 14 2023 7:58 utc | 111
Re: Kiev‘s Military Order of Battle
Barflies – for a rough reference point: 2 digit units are regular NATO style trained units ( aka the 23rd Mech Brigade ). 3 digit units are various Volksturm (aka the 111th Territorial Brigade )
Focus on the 2 digit brigades to get a handle on Kiev‘s real capabilities.
15 months ago, Kiev had approx. 18 NATO style brigades of front line ground forces. About 12, maybe as many as 15, of these brigades were rendered incapable-of-combat-operations by the DPR & LPR militias. Some of these were reconstituted but appear to have been destroyed a second time in the last 6 months.
Scanning the Clobber lists, I am seeing (mostly) brand new Kiev front line Brigades being mentioned. It’s a interesting question to ask : from which manpower pool are the NCOs and Officers coming to staff these brand new combat brigades ?
Final note on understanding a Order of Battle – it’s easy to get bogged down in the oft bewildering myriad of Military units. The core of a NATO style military is the so-called combat brigades – these are few and easily kept track of. For example In Kiev‘s vast ~750,000 Military establishment – there were only 18 front line combat brigades.
Posted by: Exile | Mar 14 2023 8:10 utc | 112
Nuclear no. 70
Gearing up is right. See the three warmongers here:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7xILD1DmwoI
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Mar 14 2023 8:14 utc | 113
Re: 39,, 60, and 90 days in Front Line Combat
It’s been long established that after 90 continuous days in front line combat, a units fighting capability is nil – even defensive capability is nil after 90 continuous days in front line combat. 60 days is considered the typical maximum a unit can stay on from line before combat capability rapidly diminishes. Even 60 days might be too long for all but the most fanatic hard core units. Therefore. A rule of thumb for Staff Planners is 30 days continuous front line duty and then rotate out.
Just a data point to consider.
Posted by: Exile | Mar 14 2023 8:20 utc | 114
Posted by: laguerre | Mar 14 2023 7:58 utc | 117
Missed the point completely. I was comparing France to Russia, not the US. Although the notion of France “not being dependent on the US” in any fight involving Russia is risible. Beating up African nations is on a par with the US beating up Afghanistan.
How is France doing in Africa these days again?
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 14 2023 8:24 utc | 115
Posted by: Exile | Mar 14 2023 8:10 utc | 118
Posted by: Exile | Mar 14 2023 8:20 utc | 120
Good points. I remember reading the Ukrainians were complaining many months ago that they sit at the front lines for months while the Russian units are regularly rotated out and replaced by fresh units.
Which also means by this time that a hell of a lot of Russian units have been directly exposed to front line combat conditions. Russia is building a combat-experienced army whereas Ukraine is just losing theirs. That’s going to matter going up against NATO troops from countries that haven’t done much, if any, actual combat in recent years.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 14 2023 8:29 utc | 116
@Hutch 113
NATO last year included immigrants into their major threat assessment for the first time.
So North Africans drowning in the Mediterranean are on par with Russia and China.
They must really be proud.
NATO war machine against dark skin is no problem.
It will be as you point out a rather difficult maneuver to expand those nasty threat assessments to fair skinned folk from Ukraine.
But I am sure they will make up something really cool.
Perhaps ask Sean Penn for a good PR stunt.
Posted by: AG | Mar 14 2023 8:33 utc | 117
Re: logistics
A single NATO style light infantry brigade needs 1,400 tons of daily supplies in light duty combat. Mechanized and Armor need much more tonnage. Heavy combat even more.
Imagine you are tasked with supplying a single Brigade. Imagine coordinating the depots, the trucks, the buffer stock, and what-not. Now imagine doing this under fire and with a Brigade that’s on the move. Note that your nearest depots need to be ~60km from front to be outside massed arty fire. How much buffer stock would you need in excess of that 1,400 tons/day ?
Posted by: Exile | Mar 14 2023 8:46 utc | 118
Ukrainian troops lost about 150 Switchblade 300 kamikaze drones. The warehouse in the village of Malinovka, Zaporozhye region was identified and successfully attacked by Russian-AF. The cost of one such drone is about 6-7 thousand dollars.
According to some accounts, the new “Grom-1” (Thunder) gliding bomb might have been used — Topcor.ru
@Slavyangrad
and, the Waste trying to distance itself from catastrophic Ukraine project yet still lowballing numbers by wide margin. Also another German army commander got fired for doubting publicly ability of Ukraine “to win”.
The quality of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has deteriorated due to losses during the year, which casts doubt on the possibility of a Ukrainian counteroffensive, writes The Washington Post
The publication writes that ” many of the most experienced fighters left the battlefield, which led some Ukrainian officials to doubt Kiev’s readiness to launch the long-awaited spring offensive.”
According to EU and US officials, Ukraine lost 120,000 killed and wounded in the first invasion.
Statistics aside, the influx of inexperienced recruits brought in to make up for losses has changed the profile of Ukrainian forces, which soldiers on the ground say are also suffering from a basic shortage of ammunition, including artillery shells and mortars.
This casts doubt on a possible counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces, the authors of the article write.
@Slavyangrad
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 14 2023 9:02 utc | 119
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 14 2023 8:24 utc | 121
As I said, a classic American exceptionalist viewpoint, where you moved the goalposts only slightly.
Posted by: laguerre | Mar 14 2023 9:03 utc | 120
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 14 2023 8:24 utc | 121
“How is France doing in Africa these days again?”
Keeping the resources flowing, without too much bloodshed. So, arguably, better than Russia in Ukraine.
Very narrow view, of course, but true nonetheless.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Mar 14 2023 9:12 utc | 121
Two interesting blog posts
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the-iraq-war-was-a-sham
Simplicius compares the first phase of the Iraq war (2003) with the early part of the SMO – both sides had numerous SNAFUs, but the US had an easy ride from the media and much weaker opponents . Both sides had missing equipment , vehicle breakdowns, ambushes etc. But the US had more documented instances of civilian abuse and fragging
Also the US bribery of the Iraqi generals was way more successful than the Russians bribing the Ukrainian commanders. And the Iraqi armed forces were far less capable than the Ukrops
Larry Johnson – https://sonar21.com/the-u-s-intelligence-community-is-doing-group-think-on-steroids/
Larry talks about group think within the US intelligence community – any voices that are dissenting from the narrative get punished so if you wish to get on in a bureaucracy then you better toady the party line
reminds me of this
* the workers saw the plan and thought it was sh*t
* the supervisors saw the plan and thought it was manure
* the junior mangers saw the plan and thought it was fertiliser
* the middle managers said that the fertiliser will help the company grow
* the senior managers said that the company had fuel for growth
* the board approved the plan
Posted by: Aslangeo | Mar 14 2023 9:16 utc | 122
Bloomberg reports:
Russia Built $80 Billion Offshore Cash Pile in Year of Sanctions
…
Russia was able to save abroad about a third of the $227 billion windfall earned last year from its commodity exports
…
Posted by: too scents | Mar 14 2023 9:24 utc | 123
Posted by: laguerre | Mar 14 2023 9:03 utc | 126
In other words, no response.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Mar 14 2023 9:12 utc | 127
Bullshit.
Right at the top of a Google search for “France’s status in Africa”:
Macron’s Africa reset struggles to persuade
France simply can’t win — no one on the continent is going to take its professions of good faith, neutrality, partnership and brotherly love at face value.
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-emmanuel-macron-africa-reset-strategy-francafrique/
Bottom line: France is irrelevant. It may be better off than the UK, and arguably not as damaged by the oil issue as Germany is or will be, but in the end, the entire EU is simply not relevant any more. All they can is poodle for the US.
This isn’t “American exceptionalism” – it’s cold fact. The US beat the EU down with the Ukraine war, and until the EU’s leaders are overthrown, the EU is no longer a factor.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 14 2023 9:25 utc | 124
doesnt get any sicker than this. but a perfect example to the trolls this is what you are and suspport.
here a instagram account FUTURE 200 (that isnt shut down despite repeated reporting) followers can pay money to have ukies torture a russian POW any way you like while streamed. sorta like a cam girl but for sadists, your welcome to report this to instagram
https://www.instagram.com/future_200_/
Posted by: hankster | Mar 14 2023 9:27 utc | 125
the entire EU is simply not relevant any more.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 14 2023 9:25 utc | 130
—
Good. Lets hope this spells the end to the European Commission.
Posted by: too scents | Mar 14 2023 9:36 utc | 126
Re: logistics
Posted by: Exile | Mar 14 2023 8:46 utc | 124
all this talk of a spring offensive by Ukraine to reclaim Crimea is all but doomed to fail. It will be the Ardennes offensive 2023 edition.. nothing more nothing less. Fact is he modern combined arms doctrine requires a modicum of air superiority, something Ukraine does not have, in order to maintain those supply lines you mentioned exile to carry those thousands of tons of supplies that are the life blood of a modern mechanized armed force. And without those supplies all the huffing and puffing of the strategists in Kiev. Berlin, London and Washington is much ado about pretty much nothing..
Posted by: RiNS | Mar 14 2023 10:09 utc | 127
As already stated, the french Orion exercise has nothing to do with the war in Ukraine or Eastern Europe. The french armed forces have already simulated that a direct confrontation with Russia would lead to a loss of more than 50% combat effectiveness in 8 (eight) days. And they don’t have the manpower and logistics to send a credible fighting force to any Eeastern Europe theater.
They are just surfing on the anti-Russia current trend to promote what is basically an internal exercise about the french military fighting “rebellious” groups on french soil. In this case, “Pro-russians militias” meaning “far-right militias”, and “far-right militias” meaning any armed group of insurgents wanting to fight the globalists cabal.
This is just a repressive exercise anticipating french riots in disguise.
Posted by: Pierrot | Mar 14 2023 10:27 utc | 128
Ukraine channel Legitimny:
Our source reports that a pinpoint missile attack on the Odessa region was carried out against “special targets”, such as radar / air defense, at places where important equipment is stored (possibly components for UAVs, etc.), and it was also possible that the bridge in Zatoka.
There is no exact information yet (we specify).
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/37219
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 14 2023 10:34 utc | 129
Posted by: Pierrot | Mar 14 2023 10:27 utc | 134
and there I was thinking Macron felt out of sorts because he could not go to San Diego and needed a birthday parade
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Mar 14 2023 10:35 utc | 130
[130]
Bottom line: France is irrelevant. It may be better off than the UK, and arguably not as damaged by the oil issue as Germany is or will be, but in the end, the entire EU is simply not relevant any more. All they can is poodle for the US.
You are such an absolutist recognising no nuances that I suspect you of black-white thinking !
France is not a player in Washington’s Script but UK is.
France is looking for an axis to pivot – Franco-German relations are very very bad. They got much worse once Protestants like Schroeder and Merkel replaced Catholics like Kohl………Americans have no conception of what this means……..
France will seek to bring Club Med on-side. It tried backing Greece against Turkey but US muscled in to use Greece against Turkey and ally Greece with Israel which of course makes Cyprus more difficult.
You are so North American thinking in cartoon format oblivious to European angles. France will draw UK into its defence arrangements because Germany is irrelevant lacking production capacity or capability………..UK will revolt against US when Biden screws up in Belfast – the place his grandfather left as a textile worker…………
Biden should inflame things nicely and blow up the Protestants there……
Britain is disintegrating as a society – no American could survive at a British cost-of-living…….but might have to face such a future.
US is unravelling………its banking system is now insured 100% without FDIC receiving levies from the miscreants……..it has Yellen backstopping banks from collapsing because they have gorged on US Treasuries and built huge loan books on these Eligible Reserve Assets only to have the Fed (her last station) destroying the Market Value of those Reserve Assets because it is bloated full of Treasuries it has monetised.
US is really a case of MMT going haywire
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Mar 14 2023 10:45 utc | 131
Posted by: Pierrot | Mar 14 2023 10:27 utc | 134
That’s what I expected. Using the term “militias” when they actually mean, say, riots or small bands of armed criminals, isn’t accurate. A real “insurgency”, with thousands of armed opponents, like Afghanistan or Iraq, is much harder to deal with. As France apparently found out, according to this article:
French Soldiers Quit Mali After 9 Years, Billions Spent and Many Lives Lost
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/15/world/africa/mali-france-military-operation.html
It reads like the US failure in Afghanistan.
Here’s an analysis of the French military, which seems reasonable:
ANALYSIS: How powerful is the French military?
https://www.thelocal.fr/20220316/analysis-how-powerful-is-the-french-military/
A parliamentary report published in February 2022 found that in a high-intensity war, the French airforce could run out of missiles in just two days.
“Russia is a great military power compared to France even though its GDP is much smaller. Power is a question of will – and it is not certain that France has the will to use force as an expression of power,” said Roche.
Of course, Russia’s “GDP” depends on how you calculate it.
Statistica rates them France ahead of everyone in Europe except Russia. They are probably the only EU country that can sustain a short, foreign deployment.
Everyone else in Europe appears to be basket cases, which is why no one takes NATO vs Russia seriously (except for Turkey’s military.)
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 14 2023 10:52 utc | 132
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Mar 14 2023 10:45 utc | 137
Not convinced the UK will revolt against the US.
As for “European angles”, who cares? Email me when the EU does something significant short of most of their governments being overthrown. The consensus I’ve been reading is that nothing will change there until the existing regimes are overthrown, and some people think even that won’t be enough because the entire structure of the EU is what is the problem. Which implies the collapse of the entire EU concept, then leaving the European countries to chart their own course.
Which course, if it doesn’t involve reconciling with Russia and getting along with China, probably won’t change much in terms of geopolitical influence unless it significantly improves their economic prospects – which again, pretty much depends on Russia and China and making nice with Middle East countries like Iran.
Bottom line: Email me when any of this happens. Until then, I couldn’t care less about Europe.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 14 2023 11:00 utc | 133
its banking system is now insured 100%
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Mar 14 2023 10:45 utc | 137
—
Don’t be silly. That’s impossible.
From Satyajit Das via Naked Capitalism:
If this is implemented then it would mean that the state would be assuming a contingent liability in the order of $20 trillion being the total of US bank deposits.
Posted by: too scents | Mar 14 2023 11:09 utc | 134
Posted by: Jetpack1 | Mar 13 2023 22:06 utc | 28
This sort of personal attack should really be deleted, IMO.
Posted by: Mike R | Mar 13 2023 22:23 utc | 34
Mike, I agree.
Posted by: Marduk | Mar 14 2023 11:18 utc | 135
@ Exile – all
Very excellent, clear & concise explainers/teaching points. Cheers & Prost!
@ Richard Steven Hack | Mar 14 2023 8:29 utc | 122 & 138
This. Cheers.
Our source reports that in the case of mobilization, a nix is brewing not in favor of people. The Office of the President wants to check all issued certificates, reasons, etc., for declining from mobilization.
Too many people appeared who “bought” their freedom by giving bribes from $3 to $10,000.
Closer to the fall, many of these slope papers will be cancelled.
The reason is banal. The lack of manpower in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and after the spring-summer military campaign, the shortage of soldiers will be 10 times greater due to losses during the offensive.
Posted by: Down South | Mar 14 2023 13:08 utc | 137
IMU an interesting statement from Russia:
“Germany is not an autonomous actor”
( Who’d have thunk! )
I’d translate that to :
“We’ll talk to you again when you have shed your dogleash.
No longterm bad feelings.”
Posted by: MAKK | Mar 14 2023 13:59 utc | 138
⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (14 March 2023)
Part I (see Part II (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/6463))
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
◻️In Kupyansk direction, aviation and artillery of the ‘Zapad’ Group of Forces have engaged the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) close to Sinkova and Kislovka (Kharkov region).
💥The enemy has suffered losses of up to 75 Ukrainian servicemen, one infantry fighting vehicle, three motor vehicles, four Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers, and one MT-12 anti-tank gun during the day.
◻️In Krasny Liman direction, active actions by units of the ‘Tsentr’ Group of Forces and artillery fire inflicted damage on the manpower and equipment of the enemy near Yampolovka (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Nevskoye (Lugansk People’s Republic).
💥More than 95 Ukrainian troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, two pick-up trucks, one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, one D-30 howitzer, and one U.S.-made M777 artillery system have been neutralised in this area during the day.
◻️In Donetsk direction, actions of the ‘Yug’ Group of Forces supported by artillery close to Zaliznyanskoye, Krasnoye, and Tonenkoye (Donetsk People’s Republic) have eliminated up to 150 Ukrainian troops, three tanks, two armoured fighting vehicles, four pick-up trucks, two motor vehicles, one D-20 howitzer, one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery unit, one MT-12 anti-tank gun, as well as two U.S.-made M777 artillery systems in the past 24 hours.
◻️In South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, aviation and artillery of the ‘Vostok’ Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on the AFU units close to Prechistovka (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Uspenovka (Zaporozhye region).
💥The enemy suffered up to 60 Ukrainian troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, three pick-up trucks, three motor vehicles, and one D-20 howitzer in these directions during the day.
💥An ammunition depot of the 72nd Mechanised Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been hit close to Vodyanoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
◻️In Kherson direction, more than 40 Ukrainian servicemen, three armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, two Gvozdika self-propelled artillery guns, and one Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer have been eliminated during the day.
#MoD
🔹 @mod_russia_en
Many losses of self propelled howitzered (Gvozdika and Akatsiya). The new Nato platforms (42 allegedly promised for now) won’t last long.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 14 2023 14:44 utc | 139
Deplorable Commissar | Mar 14 2023 4:30 utc | 98
” RF has deliberately from day 0 used majority consumable/expendable second rate arms, materiel & units by choice.
Posted by: Outraged | Mar 14 2023 1:59 utc | 79 ”
Do tell, which Russians are ” expandable (sic) ” , their mothers, daughters, and wives want to know ?
I say, I think you’ll find that “their mothers, daughters, and wives” are quite pleasurably expandable !
Sorry ! Sorry …
Deep shame …
I’ll get me coat.
Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Mar 14 2023 15:01 utc | 140
I agree with Exile on several of his posts, including this one:
Exile | Mar 14 2023 8:10 utc | 118
Armies get degraded by constant battle. The idea that the Ukrainian army could start a major offensive I find utterly risible.
It is short of artillery and ammo, has no close air support, has run pretty much out of tactical missiles. It has a mish-mash of outdated vehicles.
Its logistics are fekked. To put it mildly.
And, very importantly, who are the experienced officers to lead such an offensive: they are all dead or maimed. At every level, platoon, company, battalion, brigade, division normal armies have career officers & NCOs with decades of experience.
A two-four week training course in Catterick or Poland really doesn’t cut it.
I’m completely staggered by the insanity of it all.
BTW, I’m not very impressed with Rybar, who is such an expert he cannot tell the difference between an old, early model T72 and the latest T90M with Ukraine upgrades. See his latest sourceforge: blithering nonsense. So I view his contributions with a mine full of salt.
Posted by: JulianJ | Mar 14 2023 15:19 utc | 141
I’m a little slow as usual, but it seems to me that the great fast deep RF Big Arrow offensives expected for months have in fact been finessed by the RF cheerfully doubling down on success by massive reinforcements of the front in a great slow rolling Broad Arrow offensive.
Posted by: John Kennard | Mar 14 2023 15:35 utc | 142
… Many losses of self propelled howitzered (Gvozdika and Akatsiya). The new Nato platforms (42 allegedly promised for now) won’t last long.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 14 2023 14:44 utc | 145
The shells are cheap but the guns ain’t, artillery is economical only so long as the guns are relatively survivable. Those numbers demonstrate that a superiority in counter-battery surveillance and fire spotting generally means that when a Ukrainian artillery piece fires there’s a good chance of RF being able to intervene.
Every time artillery fires it geo-locates itself to anyone who’s looking or listening. Microphones on drones are the obvious next step and will make artillery on both sides every less survivable, less economical.
Rockets fired from cheaper launch vehicles become way more economical as the counter-fire risk goes up.
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 14 2023 15:58 utc | 144
Oh, man, no wonder the government of Georgia backed down to a “color mob” over transparency of international funding of domestic politics, the hooks are already set:
https://agenda.ge/en/news/2023/1047
Doomed.
Posted by: John Kennard | Mar 14 2023 16:16 utc | 145
@ colin 36
‘it’s that the bulk of people dying in [war] are dying from [artillery and missiles]. That’s a stark contrast from the portrayal of warfare as consisting of heroic individuals and teams coordinating victory via small arms fire…’
Posted by: fnord 3
Wasn’t this already the case 100 years ago (WWI)?
Posted by colin 36
Artillery was responsible for 75% of all casualties in WW1. I think that includes Russian casualties even on those long fronts where so much of the fighting was done by cavalry, but I could be wrong so anyone please correct me if that 75% excludes Russian forces. Long: From today’s St. Petersburg to west of Trabzon on the southern Black Sea.)
For anyone who doesn’t know, what made artillery far more lethal than earlier wars, were 2 items.
1. The invention of the hydraulic shock absorbers (or buffers) which let the canon to recoil without moving its mount. So no need for men to wrestle the canon back into position after each shot. So the rate of aimed fire increased about eight-fold, now getting up to 4 shots a minute. Invented by the French, sold by a French officer to the Germans around 1898, who promptly started making a 77mm copy. This started the infamous “Dreyfus Affair” which was used by cosmopolitans to introduce the novel term “anti-semitism”, and to damage the prestige and morale of French army officers, who had indeed treated Captain Dreyfus outrageously. Historians think they know which French officer sold the secrets, and it wasn’t Dreyfus. Enough of that rabbit hole.
2. Smokeless powder greatly increased artillery range and allowed faster rates of fire as the barrel didn’t need any
powder residue to be scrubbed out every few shots. I suppose the new warheads used some form of dynamite, so at least 5 times more deadly than old gunpowder.
Posted by: JessDTruth | Mar 14 2023 16:56 utc | 146
Any one hearing details about a collision over the black sea between a Russian jet fighter and a Reaper drone ?
Apparently the drone went down and was lost.
It was carrying out electronic surveillance from nutrial territory on activities in Ukraine.
Within last hour or so.
Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 14 2023 17:16 utc | 147
@ Posted by: Colin | Mar 13 2023 22:27 utc | 36
I think it’s honestly always been the case. It used to be that you’d get conscripted to fight for some rich asshole and then die of disease before or immediately after you see battle, that is if you didn’t run away and try to assimilate into the local population. Infection would kill you if so much as got scraped by a rusty pike. Before instant death by explosives there was a long, drawn out, process of dying by shitting yourself. Maybe this is why the Vikings ascribed so much importance to dying in battle, or why the Iroquois and Aztecs mixed war and sport, with more deaths coming from blunt trauma or ritual sacrifice than by an infected piece of open skin.
Still, in the popular imagination, the image of war is that of heroic individuals stepping triumphantly into the battlefield, not Billy Ray of the first confederate army of Shitsville getting his leg blown off by a Minie ball and sitting the rest of the war out without ever firing a shot, or Pvt. Pyle getting off the boat storming the beaches of Normandy and immediately getting blown to shit by an artillery shell. Even our American depictions of these wars focus on close quarters combat and exchanges of small arms fire, when death in war since at least the Civil War has been caused inordinately by explosives fired off by machine-like crews and now increasingly autonomous machines.
Posted by: fnord | Mar 14 2023 17:35 utc | 148
@ Mark2 | Mar 14 2023 17:16 utc | 153
Someone somewhere had crossed some red line.
Apparently, RF’s SU-27 first dumped fuel in front of it and then rammed its propeller after a particular drone forced its owners to dive it down to the Black Sea.
On F24 (fligtradar24.com) 15.000 people are following Boeing Poseidon plane circling above Romanian coastline, second currently observed is a misterious Bombardier flight currently over the Black Sea without a call sign that has taken off from Moscow. Very strange series of events.
The need to start removing the NATO’s ‘eyes in the sky’ is pretty much long overdue, anyway.
Posted by: whirlX | Mar 14 2023 17:39 utc | 149
@ unimperator | Mar 14 2023 14:44 utc | 145
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed (losses over previous 24hrs(+?)):
401(+1) aircraft, (Daily avg 1.1)
220 helicopters, (Daily avg 0.6)
3,418(+17) unmanned aerial vehicles, (Daily avg 8.9)
412 surface-to-air missile systems, (Daily avg 1.1)
8,293(+13) tanks and other armored combat vehicles, (Daily avg 21.8)
1,057(+2) multiple rocket launchers, (Daily avg 2.8)
4,350(+17) field artillery and mortars, (Daily avg 11.4) and
8,924(+20) special military vehicles. (Daily avg 23.3)
Whir1X @ 155
Thanks for all those details.
I do agree with all your point.
Long over due.
Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 14 2023 17:43 utc | 151
Military summary had an interesting update on Bakhmut. The Ukrainian grouping NW of Krasna Gora has been “split” into three sections, and part of their tanks have been taken into a kind of semi-circle and almost boxed against the minor river. That could disrupt any offensive plan UAF had coming from the Slavyansk direction to Soledar or Krasna Gora.
Also there were some advance west of Avdeevka (south to north).
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 14 2023 18:04 utc | 152
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 14 2023 11:00 utc | 139
…
As for “European angles”, who cares? Email me when the EU does something significant short of most of their governments being overthrown. The consensus I’ve been reading is that nothing will change there until the existing regimes are overthrown, and some people think even that won’t be enough because the entire structure of the EU is what is the problem. Which implies the collapse of the entire EU concept, then leaving the European countries to chart their own course.
Which course, if it doesn’t involve reconciling with Russia and getting along with China, probably won’t change much in terms of geopolitical influence unless it significantly improves their economic prospects – which again, pretty much depends on Russia and China and making nice with Middle East countries like Iran.
Bottom line: Email me when any of this happens. Until then, I couldn’t care less about Europe.
From what I’m reading here, your definition of Europe’s significance is more of a moral judgment based on values you have defined yourself. Your dismissal of Europe as insignificant seems more of an expression of contempt than an objective assessment of the role of Europe in the present conflict we are discussing.
Perhaps the question you should be asking is how would the war evolve should several major European countries suddenly drop their support for Ukraine? What if the French or German public opinion became better informed on the timeline of the conflict, the causes and, more to the point, the true costs?
My point is that without European material, financial, political and logistical support, the conflict would most probably come to a quick resolution. This alone suggests that Europe certainly isn’t insignificant.
This naturally leads to my second point and that shaping European public opinion is fundamental to determining the course of this conflict. Dismissing this reality is to concede the dominance of those interests which drive national policies by manipulating the narrative.
Posted by: robin | Mar 14 2023 18:07 utc | 153
So any update on the drone collision?
US mighty peeved!
No ability to recovering.
Posted by: jpc | Mar 14 2023 19:07 utc | 154
Jpg @ 160
I haven’t any more but that’s only becouse my finger is not on the pulse.
All though I called it, I only got it from BBC radio 5 pm headline news
They said it had happend ‘momments ago’
Roadkill ha ha
Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 14 2023 19:38 utc | 155
jpc | Mar 14 2023 19:07 utc | 160
Russian MoD version
IntelSlava
The forces of the Black Sea Fleet managed to find the crash site of the American MQ-9 Reaper drone and raise its wreckage from the water.
Cyberspec
Luckily we were able to pick it up and it’s already in the post to Iran to replicate.
Posted by: OttoE | Mar 14 2023 20:01 utc | 156
reports Rf jet dumped fuel on it , there was no collision, but about time to start restricting these drones. international waters or not.
Posted by: hankster | Mar 14 2023 20:27 utc | 157
Posted by: OttoE | Mar 14 2023 20:01 utc | 162
Since we were scolded to bring the discussion of the downed drone here, I’ll repost what I wrote in the other Ukraine related thread. But first, do you have an actual link to an official statement that the Russians were able to recover an MQ-9 drone from the Black Sea? I haven’t seen anything like that yet.
Here’s where I left off in the other thread:
Posted by: Arioch | Mar 14 2023 20:29 utc | 231
Maybe, but I seriously doubt the Russians would sacrifice any part of their plane and endanger the pilot. I mean we’re talking actual physical contact at a relatively high speed in mid-air. That’s a scenario with all kinds of risks. Occam’s Razor tells me the truth is much simpler.
a) IF it was a Reaper drone w/ turboprop, either they used the fuel release trick to cause the drone’s intake to suck it in and ruin the motor or the drone/pilot panicked and tried to make too quick a maneuver leading to its loss.
or
b) IF it was a Hawk drone w/ jet engine, all bets are off. But as Norwegian said above, and I questioned earlier, why is the Pentagram so insistent on giving that kind and level of detail in its official statements? Seems awfully precise and unnecessary to me. A simple “contact was made and we lost the drone as a result” would have sufficed. Furthermore, what degree of telemetric detail can they really get from the aircraft that’s being remotely piloted? Is there a camera aimed at the propeller that they saw get hit in real-time? In that sense, the information provided is actually vague to the point of suspicion. How do they know that the propeller was hit, and if they know that, then why not describe exactly what happened given that they’re already going into unnecessary detail? Isn’t it far more likely that their telemetry provides a binary state reading for the status of the propeller shaft? IOW, something caused the propeller to stop working, but all they know is the “FAILURE” reading.
Maybe someone can help me out here, because I’ve convinced myself that the whole propeller scenario is bullshit and the USG is cleverly obfuscating the fact that they actually lost a much more sensitive and expensive aircraft (the Hawk).
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 14 2023 20:41 utc | 238
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 14 2023 20:46 utc | 158
@Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 14 2023 20:46 utc | 164
Maybe someone can help me out here, because I’ve convinced myself that the whole propeller scenario is bullshit and the USG is cleverly obfuscating the fact that they actually lost a much more sensitive and expensive aircraft (the Hawk).
I agree, minus “cleverly”.
Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 14 2023 20:51 utc | 159
Reposted from the dead Ukrainians thread
Arioch #202
However, imagine the drone was forced into some virage that could only be managed if piloted by a human controller. Collision avoidance, put into jet slipstream, anything. USAF pilot starts a sharpturning he is trained to do, and suddenly Russian jammers kick in, removing human control and maybe also faking GPS and altitude signals. Unguided Reaper in the middle of the vriager fails, but Russia made no any focused impact and can enjoy deniability, it was *just a malfunction*, you know.
Just speculating for a fun of it.
Your speculating is appreciated.
I speculate that the Russian plane “dumping fuel” proposition is BS. The Russian plane got into accurate position aligned with drone propellers and dumped a “bag of marbles” perhaps steel marbles.
At that collision rate only one or two impacts on one propeller blade would be enough to destroy the engine or shut it down (assuming it had such mechanism).
The Russian plane is entirely safe with a classy exit maneuver. All that remains to do is follow the dropping plane to spot its gps point on impact.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 14 2023 20:56 utc | 160
Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 14 2023 20:51 utc | 165
Yeah, haha. I actually almost used scare quotes for “cleverly” originally, but opted not to. To that end, apparently the propeller version has been “clever” enough to throw most of the media stenographers off the scent, not that stenographers ever try following a lead to begin with…
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 14 2023 20:57 utc | 161
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 14 2023 20:56 utc | 166
I’ve never heard of the ability of a jet interceptor like the Su-27 to drop objects on things. Also, the degree of skill (and luck) required to make such a hit would lead me to think that the whole operation was VERY risky – having to get close enough to the drone to do so. But what do I know? I actually find the fuel release theory far more compelling than any propeller strike, but I also think it wasn’t a Reaper drone at all, but a Global Hawk. I guess we’ll see what the Russians end up saying, if anything else is disseminated in the future.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 14 2023 21:00 utc | 162
Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 14 2023 20:46 utc | 164
They may have cameras to see directly, but then we should see the video. If you read their message about the unsafe for environment fuel drop you can see the level of iq there. Some green hair diversity had to write a text to explain how they’ve lost a drone where it wasn’t supposed to fly. And that is the result. When Russia had an army, they shot down planes (with people inside) if they came too close. Now they are afraid to shoot down live on tv a drone over a forbidden area.
The guy attacked in Melitopol today in a terrorist car bomb died in hospital. Somehow ukr army still isn’t legally a terrorist in Russia.
Posted by: rk | Mar 14 2023 21:02 utc | 163
Iran shot down a Global Hawk in 2019. Maybe this is the 2nd one lost.
Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 14 2023 21:04 utc | 164
The Hawk is a high altitude surveillance craft. I don’t believe it would need to come close to Crimea to ‘see’ all it needed to. Why use a Reaper and drive it so close with transponder off? Did they think they were being ‘stealthy’? Was it flying at very low altitude perhaps?
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 14 2023 21:05 utc | 165
Simplicius weighs in on the drone event:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/breaking-russian-su-27s-finally-down
He’s also going with the “official” narrative, which I find suspect at this point. However, he does provide some interesting details and history for the practice of fuel drops to interfere with the operation of manned aircraft. Worth the read, anyway, even though I’m thinking it was a Global Hawk now.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 14 2023 21:06 utc | 166
@the pessimist | Mar 14 2023 21:05 utc | 171
I don’t believe it would need to come close to Crimea to ‘see’ all it needed to.
If provocation was the idea, it would need to come close.
Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 14 2023 21:10 utc | 167
Welp, apparently there’s an update. Rybar reports that an MQ-9 was fished out of the Black Sea.
Per Simplicius:
Update #2: Rybar says Russian Black Sea fleet has already fished out the MQ-9. The drone was only 60km southwest of Sevastopol which allowed them to get to it quickly. Good news is, Russia just got itself a brand new MQ-9 valued at over $100m (export cost). Bad news is, US was flying in ‘dark mode’ with transponders off only 60km from Sevastopol, which is a very serious threat.
However the Rybar statement only says that pieces of an MQ-9 were retrieved, nothing specific and not the entire craft.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 14 2023 21:10 utc | 168
Drone downing.
What fascinates me is how quickly the BBC put that on air minutes apparently.
I would have thought an event like that would have to be past by the propaganda boys fist, most Ukraine news is delayed or just dosent appear if it’s positive for Russia.
Hmmmm !
Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 14 2023 21:20 utc | 169
“MQ-1 / 9 Predator payload details
The surveillance and reconnaissance payload capacity is 204kg (450lb) and the vehicle carries electro-optical and infrared cameras and a synthetic aperture radar. The two-colour DLTV television is equipped with a variable zoom and 955mm Spotter, while the high-resolution FLIR has six fields of view ranging from 19mm and 560mm.
The Raytheon multi-spectral targeting system (MTS-A) is fitted on the MQ-1 / 9 Predator. The MTS-A provides real-time imagery selectable between infrared and day TV, as well as a laser designation capability. MQ-1 can employ two laser-guided Hellfire anti-armour missiles with the MTS.
Providing all-weather surveillance capability, the Northrop Grumman TESAR synthetic aperture radar is fitted on the MQ-1 and has a resolution of 0.30m (1ft). Other payload options, which can be selected to meet mission requirements, include a laser designator and rangefinder, electronic support and countermeasures and a moving target indicator (MTI).
The USAF equipped a number of MQ-1 and MQ-9 Predators with a version of the Northrop Grumman airborne signals intelligence payload (ASIP) in 2010. Northrop Grumman was awarded a contract for the development and flight testing of the system on an MQ-1 in April 2008. ASIP was also tested on the U-2 reconnaissance aircraft and fitted on the RQ-4 Global Hawk.”
An aircraft operating in this theater might well have a custom surveillance package, and of course the Reaper is typically armed.
I seriously doubt it was a Global Hawk – no military reason to use that craft for such a mission. Guessing it was flying low and dark to test the limits of approach detection or the like. Well, if so they found out.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 14 2023 21:24 utc | 170
@Mark2 | Mar 14 2023 21:20 utc | 175
Well the BBC published the fact that WTC7 had collapsed about 20 minutes before it did, so….
“past by the propaganda boys”? No, they are the only ones.
On the drone, Russian Ambassador to the US says it was a provocation:
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/48502
“Russia is not looking for a confrontation with the US. Moscow considers the incident with an American UAV over the Black Sea as a provocation.” – Russian Ambassador to US after leaving State Department
The Russian ambassador said that he met with Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Karen Donfried at the State Department: the question of the “consequences” of the drone incident for Moscow was not touched upon at the meeting.
Russia did not use weapons against the US drone over the Black Sea
US and Russia need to be “extremely careful” in their actions,taking into account the events in Eastern Europe
Russia insists on building pragmatic relations with the US for the benefit of the peoples of both countries he added
Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 14 2023 21:26 utc | 171
Posted by: Hebrides | Mar 14 2023 21:22 utc | 176
Well, Rybar has reported that drone parts of some kind have been fished out of the Black Sea. We will see if that pans out.
Re: The rest of your comment, certainly there is an element of wish fulfilment on my part with the stuff about the Global Hawk, but if you check out the Simplicius article I linked above, it does seem like an important event in the grand scheme of things, especially if they are able to recover the majority of the drone and ship it to Iran or keep it for their own reverse engineering.
It also points to a more aggressive stance moving forward with respect to the Russians policing the airspace in and around theater. Sends a strong message, if you will.
In any case, yes I’m with you. If this was “just” an MQ-9 Reaper, then they probably did what you said and the pilot of the drone probably overreacted and caused it to crash. Anything about the Su-27 making physical contact with a moving drone strikes me as unlikely due to the risk to the pilot of the Sukhoi.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 14 2023 21:28 utc | 172
Just one more take on the US/Zelensky split re. Bakhmut. It’s quite simple actually. It’s another exit for USA dump Ukraine at their convenience. Which could come relatively soon.
“Zelensky didn’t listen to us to withdraw from Bakhmut to preserve resources for Melitopol attack, so it was all his fault – C’ya.”
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 14 2023 21:38 utc | 173
Tom_Q_Collins #168
I’ve never heard of the ability of a jet interceptor like the Su-27 to drop objects on things. Also, the degree of skill (and luck) required to make such a hit would lead me to think that the whole operation was VERY risky – having to get close enough to the drone to do so.
I had never heard of a VTOL until I saw one take off, never heard of hypersonic missile until I saw one fly, I never heard of choppers throwing hot decoys for missile attacks until I saw them all over the battlefield, I never heard of a drone submarine with nuclear weapons on board until they likely were positioned off the USA coast.
What makes you believe things only exist because only YOU hear of them?
Russian fighter pilots are skillfull and well trained. Have you heard otherwise from the pages of the grauniad?
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 14 2023 21:46 utc | 174
Posted by: Aslangeo | Mar 14 2023 9:16 utc | 128
Re: The Plan, here is the version I received some 20 years ago via a workplace email;
The Plan
In the beginning, there was a plan,
And then came the assumptions,
And the assumptions were without form,
And the plan without substance,
And the darkness was upon the face of the workers,
And they spoke among themselves saying,
“It is a crock of shit and it stinks.”
And the workers went unto their Supervisors and said,
“It is a pile of dung, and we cannot live with the smell.”
And the Supervisors went unto their Managers saying,
“It is a container of excrement, and it is very strong,
Such that none may abide by it.”
And the Managers went unto their Directors saying,
“It is a vessel of fertilizer, and none may abide by its strength.”
And the Directors spoke among themselves saying to one another,
“It contains that which aids plants growth, and it is very strong.”
And the Directors went to the Vice Presidents saying unto them,
“It promotes growth, and it is very powerful.”
And the Vice Presidents went to the President, saying unto him,
“This new plan will actively promote the growth and vigor
Of the company With very powerful effects.”
And the President looked upon the Plan
And saw that it was good,
And the Plan became Policy.
And this, my friend, is how shit happens.
Sorry for the off-topic…
Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 14 2023 21:47 utc | 175
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 14 2023 21:46 utc | 181
Touchy, touchy. None of those other things are relevant. You’re comparing the advent of new technologies to speculative techniques that would most definitely endanger the pilot of the Su-27 as well as the plane itself. Think about the speed and altitude at which this intercept occurred. The closest thing to a ball bearing drop that I’ve ever heard of dates back to rumors about Vietnam when the US would supposedly drop them from cargo planes onto the jungles to kill the north Vietnamese forces.
I suppose it’s possible that Su-27s could carry some sort of kinetic energy munitions (i.e., ball bearings or small bomblets without a payload), but there isn’t any information out there to indicate such a capability exists or that it has been used – especially against moving airborne targets.
While it would be pretty cool if they did that, the jet fuel theory is far more likely, IMO – at least there’s a documented history of it – and that compounded with drone pilot error, or even signals jamming.
The other less discussed option is that the Russians actually did use weapons (missiles, bullets) to take the drone down – at least with bullets there is plausible deniability for them too, as perhaps they don’t want to send TOO strong a message (that they’re actively shooting down NATO surveillance crafts).
In any case, I don’t know why you read anything offensive in my response to you, but none was intended.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 14 2023 21:55 utc | 176
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 14 2023 21:55 utc | 183
Forgot to add the disclaimer that we’re all mostly just speculating here. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that military interceptor aircraft can do things like drop small objects onto other moving aircraft, but it just seems like too much risk/trouble and would require a very high degree of skill and luck to make the hit – likely numerous passes, again unless such a technique already exists and has been practiced in the field (which once more, I cannot find any precedent).
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 14 2023 21:58 utc | 177
Dingo #103
They should hold the monastery, church and their belief
Bravery in the face of brutal possible death. Z- boy should take a pass on this situation.
I doubt Zelenazi will take a pass. He is nazi from his bootstrps and will murder the priests and their supporters. Hate of slavic culture and religion has no bounds eg observe that the UK has been hating on them for the past century and more. By this stage Zelenazi knows he is defeated and there will be no unicorn charge to his rescue.
Desperate times call for mass murder when it comes to nazis – its what they do and why they are a scourge to be purged. Every one of their supporters and apologists are a direct threat to humanity and need to be managed accordingly.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 14 2023 22:00 utc | 178
@uncle tungsten, §185:
Yeh and the NeoCons are facing defeat too in the Ukraine and, like the neo-Nazis, seem minded to take the rest of the world with them in a nuclear war.
NeoCons and neo-Nazis have the same contempt for human life when it goes against their wishes.
Posted by: John Marks | Mar 14 2023 22:05 utc | 179
Here’s another look at the drone incident.
https://www.mk.ru/politics/2023/03/14/leonkov-obyasnil-incident-nad-chernym-morem-s-amerikanskim-dronom.html
Short machine translated excerpt:
The web is full of reports of an intriguing incident over the Black Sea on Tuesday morning involving an American MQ-9 Reaper reconnaissance drone. It is reported that the Russian Su-27 aircraft flew too close to the drone, allegedly hooked on its propeller and as a result the drone fell into the sea.
Is it possible to trust the version of the US Air Force and whether this incident will become the beginning of the third world war, Alexei Leonkov, a well-known military analyst, editor of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine, explained to MK.
At first, many thought that this story was just another fake. But then came the official information. Thus, the commander of the US Air Force in Europe and Africa, General James B. Hecker, said that during a “routine operation in international airspace” MQ-9 “was intercepted and shot down by a Russian Su-27 aircraft.” It is said that Biden has already been informed of the incident.
The American general called the incident “a reckless act” or “an unsafe and unprofessional interception of an unmanned reconnaissance aircraft.” Here’s what the expert says about it.
– The American reconnaissance MQ-9 Reaper and the Russian Su-27 aircraft have very different speeds. How, with this difference in speeds, could our plane hit the propeller of the drone so much that it fell, and our Su-27 remained intact?
– Agree, the stupidest version. Much depends on how close our plane approached this drone. If such a thing ever happened. The drone is designed for a flight speed of up to 300 km/h. And a Su-27 flies past it at a speed of a thousand kilometers per hour. What screw can be hooked there?
– If, nevertheless, we assume that our Su-27 was going to shoot down a drone on purpose, does our pilot really have no other options than ramming?
– Of course have. For example, he could use the electronic warfare systems on board against the drone, or use aircraft weapons. Let’s say a 30-mm cannon damages an American apparatus. Could, finally, use an air-to-air missile.
– Will they be able to blame us for the fact that this device was shot down?
– The weapon in this case was not used. Most likely, the drone just fell down from the oncoming stream.
– And can, in this regard, the Americans present some serious claims against us?
– Let them first prove why he fell from them.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 14 2023 22:05 utc | 180
@ robin | Mar 14 2023 18:07 utc | 159
The European Commission is just asinine. Common governance of cultures with different mother tongues is a bridge too far. How can anyone think blended homogeneity is a good thing? Would you like your food like that?
Posted by: too scents | Mar 14 2023 22:07 utc | 181
Whose fake news do you believe?
Perhaps the whole story is a false flag operation — act suspicious (flying dark) and then ditch your own drone when Snoopy shoes up and then blame the Russkies (who deny that their plane hit the drone).
Trump almost attacked Iran over the loss of a drone.
Posted by: John Schmeeckle | Mar 14 2023 22:07 utc | 182
@Tom_Q_Collins, §187:
What about the much more expensive ($200m) Golden Hawk RQ4 drone that just vanished over the Circassian coast?
Posted by: John Marks | Mar 14 2023 22:09 utc | 183
And from another machine translated interview with a Russian expert:
– The first question – why are we silent? Why does all the information so far come from the American side (the conversation went on before the comments of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. – Approx. ed. )?
– I think that ours are still sorted out. And in general, it is not in our tradition to instantly issue some kind of version. [Try] restraint. We will not talk – and not to hell fly near our air borders.
“ We won’t say that even when we do?”
Yes, but we won’t tell. But that’s exactly what we showed. The Americans accuse the Russian pilot of being unprofessional and so on. But they showed unprofessionalism. Because the drone is being led by an operator, he must see our plane, which circled the drone several times, and roll away. I didn’t turn on the speed, I didn’t run away – sorry.
—But there are rules of conduct in international airspace…
– Of course, no one should create threats to anyone. But this is a drone, there were no people … And it can carry missiles on its board, it is a very powerful drone, it can fly for 27 hours, carry up to 2 tons of various ammunition. He can control other drones. As I understand it (this does not mean that this was exactly the case), the Russian pilot flew up several times, looked at what he was carrying, what he was armed with, whether he had electronic warfare systems on him. Well, the propeller of the drone could break from the jet stream.
— So you don’t think that the intention was to bring down the drone?
— I can’t speak for the pilot.
– And if he received an order to shoot down the drone – would you understand such an order?
– Not really, it was a violation, he was flying in international airspace. Such an order would be wrong.
– From what the American side states, one gets the feeling that the plane behaved provocatively, dumping fuel in front of the drone. He sneered, speaking simply.
“And on the other hand, fly near our airspace, near the Crimea, where the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet is… I have already said that this drone can control other small ones. And we already had all sorts of drones flying to our headquarters there, they attacked Sevastopol. The pilot was concerned about what the operator had in mind.
The main issue is the consequences.
— I don’t think it’s casus belli. The Americans have expressed concern, we are also concerned that they fly near our borders.
—But this is still the first such incident in the entire past year.
“There will be no far-reaching consequences. There will be no war. And everything else – who and what will say about this, in favor of the poor. – Now many joke – or don’t joke, the most interesting thing is who will catch the drone from the sea. Does it have any meaning other than symbolic? – Certainly. They will understand what his task was, what he was really armed with. The Iranians planted the same drone at their place and based on it they made their own good drone.
Interviewed by Nikolai Kudin, Fontanka.ru
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 14 2023 22:09 utc | 184
unimperator @180–
IMO, throwing Z and the Ukies under the bus at this stage will have serious consequences for NATO’s integrity for what ought to be obvious reasons. Plus, there’s the long history of doubling-down by Neocons. IMO, Zukies have until July 2024 to alter the situation so it doesn’t become an issue in the 2024 election–presuming Biden’s the nominee–although it seems likely that it will be an issue. Florida governor De Santis has stirred the hornet’s nest with his terming the conflict a “a territorial dispute” between Russia and Ukraine, which is technically correct. I recall Nixon’s “Peace with Honor” pledge regarding Vietnam which was a lie. So, what will get manufactured this time?
Perhaps we might consider rephrasing an obsolete western boast, So I took a stab at this:
“We’re Eurasia now, and when we act, we create our own reality.
And while you’re studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we’ll gain more friends across the planet, creating broader new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re future actors . . . and you, all of you outside, will be left to just study history of what we do.”
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 14 2023 22:13 utc | 186
Posted by: John Marks | Mar 14 2023 22:09 utc | 190
We actually got into that in the other thread before being asked to bring the conversation here. I tried to find evidence of a missing Global Hawk and couldn’t. I posted a link to one of the tracker services that provides flight information on FORTE10, FORTE11 and FORTE12 (the three RQ-4 drones known to be in the USAF’s inventory) and didn’t find any flights in the last 14 days. That said, the Russians have at least been clear that the drone that crashed today had its transponder turned off, so….I’ll be on the lookout for any further developments. The last thing I’ve seen from Rybar (via Simplicius the Thinker’s Substack) is that the Russian recovery team found part of a turboprop motor, which would indicate MQ-9. Stay tuned, I guess.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 14 2023 22:13 utc | 187
Rather than hypothesizing dropped ball bearings, we should recall that fighter aircraft have these thing called cannons. It doesn’t seem to me to be entirely out of the question that the Russians just shot the damned thing down but neither side believes they have anything to gain by claiming or acknowledging that is what happened.
Posted by: Mike314159 | Mar 14 2023 22:14 utc | 188
On the drone:
Russia to Outlaw US Empire: You tell us what you did to our pipelines, and we’ll tell you what happened to your drone.
Norwegian @ 178
Ha ha nice one building 7 I watched that broadcast live bizzare !
Totaly f..ked up before our very eyes.
And thanks for the rest of that comment,
I think they will both sides play it down then.
I was incorrectly wondering if we’d see another drone there tomorrow escorted by a Euro fighter jet ! Wont happen they won’t want to lose their expensive toys.
Respect from mark2
Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 14 2023 22:18 utc | 190
Posted by: Mike314159 | Mar 14 2023 22:14 utc | 195
Agree and acknowledged that very possibility in at least one of my posts. Plausible deniability on both sides. And Russian sources are already reporting that they’ve recovered some parts meaning that US/NATO teams didn’t or weren’t able to search in the area it went down. That also points to the likelihood that the drone could’ve been much closer to the coast than acknowledged by either side. I’m fully prepared to believe it was simply gunned down with an aircraft’s mounted cannon.
Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 14 2023 22:16 utc | 196
LOL, yep. And poetically, and with unintentional irony, the US side has accused the Russians of committing an environmentally bad thing. Like worse than the biggest release of natural gas into the ocean in history? The Empire has been in full “1984” mode since the start of the SMO, but also back to 2014.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 14 2023 22:23 utc | 191
Mike314159 #195
Agreed it is highly likely to have been shot down. I am confident 360 degree attack mechanisms are installed on these fighter jets. Just take a look at the documentary reports of the latest Russian SU fighters development on utoob. However to have passive defence systems is possible in order to rebut accusation of “shot down”.
Buk missiles and others discharge a field of shrapnel with explosive force. IMO a field of anything can be discharged by a small air pressure. At the speed of these two planes it would be effective. As I said before, Russian pilots are expert and do phenomenal amounts of training.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 14 2023 22:26 utc | 192
@ too scents | Mar 14 2023 22:07 utc | 188
The point I am making is that Europe is by no means an insignificant actor in the conflict we are discussing here in the Ukraine thread. Why pretend otherwise?
Posted by: robin | Mar 14 2023 22:26 utc | 193
Why pretend otherwise?
Posted by: robin | Mar 14 2023 22:26 utc | 200
—
Because Ursula von der Leyen isn’t Europe. Europe has been kidnapped by pretenders.
Posted by: too scents | Mar 14 2023 22:34 utc | 194
@Mike314159 | Mar 14 2023 22:14 utc | 195
Rather than hypothesizing dropped ball bearings, we should recall that fighter aircraft have these thing called cannons. It doesn’t seem to me to be entirely out of the question that the Russians just shot the damned thing down but neither side believes they have anything to gain by claiming or acknowledging that is what happened.
They said no weapons used. They might lie, but I see no reason to do so when the US drone was on provocative mission.
On the marble/ball bearings idea. Consider the drone at 300 Km/h and a passing SU-27 many, many times faster. If the SU-27 had dropped some marbles during a pass, the drone would not fly fast enough to catch up to those marbles.
We have not heard the whole story.
Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 14 2023 22:35 utc | 195
A coincidence at 52k feet
https://twitter.com/TruthPuke/status/1635734195128647680
#BREAKING: It appears that a #US surveillance RQ4 Global Hawk drone, callsign “#FORTE10” went missing at 8:40:58 CET (Central European Time). The #drone flew within 18 nautical miles of the #Russian coastline. It was cruising at an altitude of 52k feet.
There are many reasons to suspect that the drone from today’s incident was not a #Reaper given their rare usage in that area. #Hawks have been spotted much more frequently. This is a much larger embarrassment for USA if this is the case.
Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 14 2023 22:38 utc | 196
Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 14 2023 22:38 utc | 203
I’ve seen others post that on different Telegram channels, but I can’t find any publicly available citations nor any flight data indicating that FORTE10 was flying today.
Like you said prior, we haven’t heard the whole story. There are also reports that the US has said video of the event will be made available after de-classification they’ve had time to video edit something convincing. We’ll see.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 14 2023 22:43 utc | 197
Compulsory study of the Ukrainian language will be abolished in schools in the Zaporozhye region (EurAsia Daily, March 14, 2023 — in Russian)
The Ukrainian language will be made optional for studying in schools in the Zaporozhye region in the new academic year. Children will be able to choose which language they will study as their native language, said today, March 13, the Minister of Education and Science of the Zaporozhye region Elena Shapurova.
“This academic year, the Ukrainian language is mandatory for everyone, everyone learns it three hours a week, since September 1, 2022, it has been included in the program as a native language, and now, after the referendum, according to the laws of the Russian Federation, everyone can choose what language he or she will learn as his native language,” Shapurova explained.
The minister added that starting on September 1, the Ukrainian language will be studied only at the request of the parents of the students. According to her, some children in the region want to choose Russian as their native language. In the weekly schedule, such students will have at least nine hours of studying literature and the Russian language, and there will be no Ukrainian lessons at all.
After 30 years of the Ukraine closing down Russian-language schools, claiming that “nobody needs the Russian language”, we will finally see how many real Ukrainian speakers—not local Ukrainian Nationalists talking in broken Ukrainian on TV—there are in the (former) Eastern Ukraine.
It was pretty brutal in Crimea once the students got the chance to choose: in fall 2019, there were 207 200 (96.9%) students studying in Russian, 6400 (3.0%) in Crimean-Tatar and only 206 (0.1%) in Ukrainian (as native language and literature, Crimean-Tatar was studied by 31 190 students, Ukrainian by 5621 students).
Posted by: S | Mar 14 2023 23:26 utc | 198
the original reapers mq1/9 were constructed in a small start up company. i suspect the company sold them as proprietary and the us dod has little to no technical data. al the ‘heavy’ repairs are done by contractors.
the engines are off the shelf, both mq-1/9 and r/mq 4 global hawk.
i think it possible the ‘airframe’ in question had a propulsion malfunction, departed from controlled flight and impacted the surface of the earth.
the story of russian interference is plausible and less embarrassing than recognizing the planes are not very reliable.
Posted by: paddy | Mar 14 2023 23:31 utc | 199
So. Everyone “droning” on twitter and beyond:
> take down $32 million drone with $0.50 of jet fuel
> Destroying enemy asset = Incompetent. Ok.lol
> Russian Jet pissed on American drone and killed it to death, murder by jet pee, we will never hear the end of it
A not silly explanation:
…”if an SU-27 flies past at Mach 2. And there is latency in drone control.
And if you’ve ever flown as I have. Recovering from stall conditions requires immediate input. Then by the time the operator knows what’s happened to the drone it’s losing parts and flight control surfaces if it’s plummeting from 40k ft”
> Russians are supposed to waste a 400,000USD rocket instead of just flying past it and making it crash for no cost whatsoever
>If you fly an attack drone 60 km from Crimea gathering intel for an enemy nation, there are no rules
> su-27 pilot literally pissed fuel on the reaper and it crushed.
an epic, humiliating takedown complete with plausible deniability. perfect.
> Russia: [successfully harvests one of our best drones without shooting it]
America: you … you did that technically wrong … if I had done that I’d have done it better …
“Just to give some more info on why these drone can’t be flown real-time with air combat manoeuvre performance. The uplink to the drone has at the least several hundred milliseconds on latency. Including video feedback to operator. These things fly slow gradual turns guided by autopilot and map inputs. “
Wait a minute!
You believe that they RAMMED the drone?
You believe that the russian jets are so incredibly awesome that they can crash into a huge drone with multiple hundreds of miles per hour and the jet would just survive that?
“Environmentally unsound”. Greenies will really be pissed when they find out about all the JP5 that gets dumped by KC-130s and other planes or ships etc… all the fucking time. Not sure they want to play that bullshit card, but okay.
America shoots down a 50 cents balloon with a half a million dollar rocket and Russia shoots down a $50 millions dollars drone with half a gallon of fuel lmao this is too funny
US: complains about “muh environment” with dumped russian jet fuel. Yet turns a small town in Ohio into another “love canal” disaster zone.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Mar 14 2023 23:34 utc | 200