@ Ed | Mar 8 2023 2:35 utc | 83
Thank you. Myself, I also have trouble wrapping my head around the notion that events yet to occur can be declared “facts”. I mean, heck, the word itself is derived from a PAST participle!

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 8 2023 3:36 utc | 104

Samantha Power and USAID bringing freedom and democracy to Georgia…how grateful Georgians will be!?#$@
https://twitter.com/PowerUSAID/status/1631356011024900103

Posted by: Irish | Mar 8 2023 3:44 utc | 106

Eighthman @ 98
Those pictures of Senator Ms Lindsey humping little boys have paid massive dividends for the Death Cult.

Posted by: circumspect | Mar 8 2023 3:50 utc | 108

Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 8 2023 3:14 utc | 98

.. Guys, good news for Russia. The Deep State is discovering the (obvious) narco-terrorist regime in Mexico. The Atlantic, the Wall Street Journal are pushing hostility towards Mexico and it’s reported that Miss Lindsay in the Senate wants to authorize military action.
Wars, wars everywhere. This is getting interesting.

Yes, it’s not only getting interesting, but could be a “new?” localized conflict to the US-Texas frontier defense guys?
If RF, let’s say, just “for fun” move-up some battalions near Mexico/US-Texas border, what would Mr. Old-Style President would re-act ? Oh – Yes- an urgent direct threat from Russia to us (who is us?).
Pls. only think a short while about such a scenario ..
What you think would happen ..?

Posted by: spare_truth | Mar 8 2023 4:03 utc | 110

ZimZum | Mar 8 2023 4:04 utc | 111
And then there’s General Rasputitsa, too.

Posted by: Sektion2B | Mar 8 2023 4:08 utc | 112

I’m not sure what your point is, but I have a feeling that b doesn’t want people to discuss Covid on MoA. I am not sure why, but I suspect that it was before my time; must have been a knockdown, drag out on MoA.
Posted by: Ed | Mar 8 2023 2:57 utc | 93
Back in covid this blog was part of the fear campaign and pro vaccine, it was even quoting mainstream media. Those of us with medical degrees were ignored and most of the posters became armchair doctors overnight. Despite reams of information now coming out against what went on and the experimental drugs the paradigm remains firmly here that we narrowly escaped certain death. I gather the blog would like to put the whole sorry episode in the past. That aside, it has indeed become like arguing religion, a waste of time that just aggravates all parties.

Posted by: Organic | Mar 8 2023 4:24 utc | 114

It is a fact that EVERYONE who has taken the so called COVID vaccine will be dead within 5 years . If Putin were truly a good human being, he would have alerted the world population to not take the so called Covid vaccine.
***
Please he did, Russia has sputnik, China has sino-vac both vaxes are traditional made from dead covid cells
Only the zionist west pushes mRNA up their citizen arses
Only the nazi west is dying from the vax
Seriously you don’t know this? You honestly think anybody on earth outside the UK-Monarchy zio-nazi countrys adopted mRNA???
PUTIN is a good man, he gave his citizens a good vax, and the zionist bio-weapon failed, and Xi did the same in China;

Posted by: paracetamol | Mar 8 2023 4:33 utc | 116

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 8 2023 4:34 utc | 117
You don’t say!
Unfortunately ‘organic’ at 114 is spot on.

Posted by: Hmpf | Mar 8 2023 4:45 utc | 118

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ #Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 7 Mar 2023⚡️
🔹POW Exchange:
▪️ In the #Sumy region, another exchange of prisoners of war allegedly took place. The Ukrainian side has received 130 fighters back, while 90 servicemen are returning to #Russia, who have been sent to #Moscow for treatment and rehabilitation.
➖ Most of the exchanged Ukrainians were captured during the fighting for #Mariupol and #Azovstal.
🔹#Starobelsk Direction:
▪️ Both sides continue to accumulate forces, exchange artillery strikes and launch sabotage and reconnaissance groups into each other’s rear. There are no significant changes in this section of the front.
🔹#Soledar (#Bakhmut) Direction:
▪️ Part of the Ukrainian forces are leaving #Bakhmut, attempting to retreat along the country roads and shelled tracks near #Artyomovskoye (#Khromovo) and #Krasnoye. Separate units continue to hold their defences on the ruins of the city, buying the AFU time to set up a new defence line.
▪️ In #Bakhmut itself, Wagner PMC fighters are advancing on the northern, eastern and southern outskirts of the city, stepping up the onslaught on the remaining enemy fighters.
▪️ Ukrainian formations counterattack near the #Konstantinovka – #Bakhmut highway, trying to maintain control over the possible way of retreat.
🔹#Donetsk Direction:
▪️ The enemy terrorists again conducted massive shelling of #Donetsk. A garage cooperative in Petrovsky and an industrial zone in the Kievsky district have been hit, one person was wounded.
▪️ In #Maryinka, fierce fighting continues in the city centre. In the south, Russian troops continue their offensive near the village of #Pobeda, having expanded their zone of control in the vicinity of the settlement.
🔹#Zaporozhye Direction:
▪️ Ukrainian terrorist formations hit the frontline town of #Pologi, damaging several residential buildings. One of the residents has been wounded and received all necessary assistance.

https://t.me/sitreports/5493

Posted by: Down South | Mar 8 2023 4:48 utc | 120

If you follow the situation in the United States, then everyone there is still talking about a recession, which, attention, will begin in the III quarter of 2023, that is, a year before the presidential election, which is another negative factor that Ukraine may not receive anything for 2024 from the west. Since the Republicans are using the Ukrainian crisis as taxpayers’ money thrown to the wind.
Well, or help will be so meager in 2024 that it will barely be enough for bread.
To prevent this from happening, Ze needs a successful massive victorious offensive with a result no less than the Kharkov and Kherson cases. Here the Western lobby is urging the Office of the President that the result is needed before the end of autumn.
ZeRada also painted this case well, pointing out that this time the Russians are preparing to “meet” the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by arranging meat grinders. One can only predict that in this scenario, the losses will be more than a hundred thousand in manpower.
It is for this that it is very important for Zelensky to draw Moldova into the war in order to get a certain plus with a new focus, forcing the Russian Federation to go on the offensive and bomb not only the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but also Moldova, and possibly the involvement of the Romanians in the game, and only God knows there that will stop the world from the third world. But this does not bother Bankova, they need to save their interests.
We observe that everything is very difficult for the OP, the support of the West will weaken – everyone knows this.

https://t.me/legitimniy/14908

Posted by: Down South | Mar 8 2023 4:52 utc | 122

Forced desertification of Kupyansk: the city is being cleared by the armed forces of Ukraine.
Kupyansk’s local TG channels report that humanitarian organizations have stopped access to the city under the pretext of ensuring the safety of volunteers. Local residents are given the remnants of what they were able to bring earlier.
In parallel, the forced evacuation of families with children has begun. In the Kharkiv local administration, they insured themselves by requiring those who did not want to leave their homes to write a statement to this effect.
 
In the chats of local residents, it is believed that special conditions are being created in order to “cleanse” the city of civilians and leave the vacated houses for units of the 14th Brigade of the AFU.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/36306

Posted by: Down South | Mar 8 2023 4:59 utc | 124

Zelensky warns of ‘open road’ through Ukraine’s east if Russia captures Bakhmut, as he resists calls to retreat
Russian troops will have “open road” to capture key cities in eastern Ukraine if they seize control of Bakhmut, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned in an interview with CNN, as he defended his decision to keep Ukrainian forces in the besieged city.
“This is tactical for us,” Zelensky said, insisting that Kyiv’s military brass is united in prolonging its defense of the city after weeks of Russian attacks left it on the cusp of falling to Moscow’s troops.
“We understand that after Bakhmut they could go further. They could go to Kramatorsk, they could go to Sloviansk, it would be open road for the Russians after Bakhmut to other towns in Ukraine, in the Donetsk direction,” he told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer in an exclusive interview from Kyiv. “That’s why our guys are standing there.”
Some commanders and lower level officers have questioned the merit of holding Bakhmut amid a rising number of casualties and a growing risk that hundreds or even thousands of Ukrainian troops could get cut off.
But Zelensky dismissed those concerns, saying he has “never heard anything like that” from his commanders.
“We have to think about our people first and no one should be surrounded, encircled – this is very important,” he said.

https://t.me/intelslava/45533

Posted by: Down South | Mar 8 2023 5:03 utc | 126

“It is a fact that in most countries at least 5% of those who did not take the vaccine will be dead within 5 years.”
Actually the average death rate over the lifespan of all people is 100% over 80 years, so you are right. Everybody has more than a 5% chance to die in the next five years of their life no matter what they do.

Posted by: Rhinoskerous | Mar 8 2023 5:39 utc | 128

If ever there was an opportunity for a chemical weapon false flag by USUKIS its here in Bakhmut. The stage is set, the bait for “””””” Russian brutality and criminality Red lines “””””” would be swallowed hook line and sinker by Western publics. And unfortunately Biden has 0 % of Trump’s savviness about being duped.
It might even energise him a bit. He loves a good moral rant.

Posted by: Giyane | Mar 8 2023 5:54 utc | 130

Posted by: Down South | Mar 8 2023 5:03 utc | 126
Sorry, I’ve made a little too much stuff, but’s not mentioned towards your every day good and well documented posts here on MoA.
I appreciate all of you have being commented, as far as I have listened to you.
You’re a guy of wishing so-called facts – so I’m are.
Be careful – esp. my person – will see – but I’m not of CIA/Mossad/Mi’s or so.
I do respect you only because of the fact that you deliver real current infos to us. MoAs.
So, pls. go ahead that way, but keep calm down, just now – the UKR war hasn’t stopped so far, or being esculating, as I remember : NO.
Thanks for uptodate infos …

Posted by: spare_truth | Mar 8 2023 6:03 utc | 132

Posted by: Down South | Mar 8 2023 5:03 utc | 126

..But Zelensky dismissed those concerns, saying he has “never heard anything like that” from his commanders. ..

If he (Elenski) never heard anything like that, that’s a real wrong -180 degree turn-around that the German AD-Minister(in) Baerboecchen is not being able this to do.
OK – that’s a German aspect – but really I want now speaking about China when all big concerns like BASF & BAYER will go towards USA and/or China .. :
China hass newly advanced to be the FIRST AGRESSOR against USA.
No more comment to that – so far, but most of all MoAs may have noticed that it is.

Posted by: spare_truth | Mar 8 2023 6:20 utc | 134

For twitter accounts with Georgia vid and reports, try this:
https://twitter.com/hashtag/georgia

Posted by: Melaleuca | Mar 8 2023 6:59 utc | 136

The now new US fantasy about N1/N2
.
Explain the “dramatic change in US policy”.
The core question was therefore how the USA can get the public and politicians in the West to participate in the “dramatic change in US policy”.
Those were all facts, from now on I’m speculating: If the US government decided to implement the RAND recommendation, then they could explain to the West that it was Ukraine that blew up the Nord Streams. One could continue to condemn Russia for its “aggressive war,” but state that Kiev has been unfriendly, to put it politely, towards its patrons, which is why it can no longer expect Western support on the same scale as before.
One could force Kiev to negotiate with Russia and demand from Kiev the concessions that RAND proposed in its paper, which in fact include almost everything Russia is asking for: recognition of the new Russian territories including Crimea, a neutral Ukraine, the abolition of ( or at least strong weakening) of Russia sanctions and so on.
It would be relatively easy to sell this to the Western public, although no expert will of course believe the story that Kiev blew up the Nord Streams single-handedly and without the knowledge of the US and NATO. But the power of the Western media can work wonders for Western public opinion, as the silencing and discrediting of the Hersh report just demonstrated once again. For the US, as RAND has learned, it is only important to explain the “dramatic change in US policy (…) both domestically and towards its allies”. And that’s what Western media can do by keeping the topic “Ukraine has blown up Nord Stream” in the headlines for some time.
So we can see the early signs in the next few days that this might be the US government’s plan if the western media jumps on the subject. Should they immediately bury the topic again, my speculation should not have hit the mark.
But let’s pretend my speculation is correct.
The implementation
Chancellor Scholz’s strange visit to Washington, during which Scholz flew to the United States alone without advisors and journalists, only to have a two-hour private conversation with US President Biden and then give CNN a quick and completely meaningless interview , has aroused much speculation.
It cannot be ruled out that Scholz was confronted with a fait accompli in Washington and committed to the prepared media campaign about “Ukraine has blown up Nord Stream”. After all, it is a very strange coincidence that these reports were published by American and German media just four days after Scholz’s mysterious visit to the White House.
That it is a media campaign is shown by the above-mentioned fact that the German and American media on the same day referred to different sources that gave them top secret information that basically says the same thing: A group of Ukrainian citizens is with a small sailing yacht sailed from Germany to the pipelines, where special divers (unnoticed by the complete NATO surveillance of the Baltic Sea off Denmark and Sweden) attached the explosives to the pipelines.
The story is absurd and completely unrealistic, but the western media has even been able to convince the public that the passports of the 9/11 attackers were found intact in the rubble immediately after the collapse of the Twin Towers, which is why wars against Afghanistan are urgently needed and had to lead Iraq. In comparison, the story of the sailing yacht that was able to plant the explosive devices unnoticed in the closely monitored Baltic Sea is downright believable.
Sit back and wait
Now all we have to do is sit back and see if the Western media prominently broadcast the “Ukraine blew up Nord Stream” story. And should that happen, we can await with great curiosity how the first western politicians will question aid to Ukraine and demand an ultimatum from Kiev to negotiate with Russia.
But maybe I’m wrong with my little speculation and the apparently coordinated publications by German and American media about the alleged Ukrainian trace of the Nord Stream blast are pursuing a different goal.
It is well known that forecasts are always difficult, especially when they relate to the future. Let’s wait…

Posted by: mo3 | Mar 8 2023 7:43 utc | 138

Prigozhin with his illustrated punk style announces that all the eastern part up to the river in Artyomovsk is under Vagner’s control. At the same time and unfortunately for non Russian speakers he answers with a video a question by non other than the “hero” of the day, the NewYorkTimes, hopefully the transcript will appear soon but with his very particular style he evoques the 300 spartans and the three mounted heroes of Russian folklore, he asks Zelensky to let the old men and children to leave Bakhmut-Artyomovsk and to send the thousands of troops he deployed in other parts of the front so as to deal with one another as true fighters do. You’re for democracy, we are for justice, he is touching the deepest nerve of Russian spirit. Prigozhin will join the Kotovsky and bandit fighters legend of the Russian bolshevik revolution, he is up to it.
https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/2810

Posted by: Paco | Mar 8 2023 8:22 utc | 140

🇬🇪 (this flag sucks and I would much rather the old one)
Recently in one of our live transmissions I mentioned that there would be no chance the current government of Georgia would enter the war on the side of Ukraine, for several reasons. This is the root of what is happening now.
There is no proper pro-Russian influential group in Georgian politics, but there is a pragmatic, realistic camp, against a rabid russophobe side. The first has been winning all elections with ease for a long time, and the only chance of getting Georgia back at war seems to be a coup. Relations with Russia are improving (from a rather low point, but still), rather than deteriorating with time and this further alarms the west.
The “anti foreign agent bill” is nothing unfair or extraordinary, which by the way, in practice could target russian businesses in the country (which are still plenty) more than western ones. The justification that “it would impede Georgia to join the EU” is rather absurd: Georgia’s issues with poverty, rule of law and cultural distance from EU countries simply means it will never join. The protests are simply trying to orchestrate a coup.
Even if the pragmatic camp has been winning all elections and polls with ease, it is really easy to manipulate a sudden shift of public opinion in post USSR. You have a large majority of apathetic, disinterested people so a loud minority can always still prevail. But such protests and vandalism against the Georgian parliament are almost a recurring event in that country, they happen every time the hardline europeanists can’t accept reality. The real worrying part here is the position of the president, who was elected representing the pragmatic camp but seems to have changed sides, and the sudden interest of the US in the country.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/36332

Posted by: Down South | Mar 8 2023 9:24 utc | 142

Military expert Boris Rozhin (C. Cassad) on the situation in the Artemovsk direction for the evening of March 07, 2023
1. The situation for the enemy in the city has worsened over the past day. There are results of fire control over roads.
2. Despite reports of the withdrawal of some units, the enemy does not abandon attempts to hold the defense in the western and part of the central districts of the city. There is a political task-to keep Bakhmut at all costs, which is solved by a tough defense in the city limits and attempts to keep the localities of Krasnoe, Khromovo and Bogdanovka, despite the pressure of the Wagner assault groups at Bogdanov and Krasny (Ivanovske)
There is pressure from the West to leave Bakhmut, but Kiev has become a hostage to its propaganda campaign to keep the city.
3. There is a transfer of reserves to hold the city, which were intended for Kupyansky, Krasnolimansky and Zaporozhye directions. They are insurance in case ” Wagner “breaks through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Khromovo area and closes the boiler. Then the reserves will be used for counterattacks in the area of Berkhovka, Yagodnoye and Khromovo.
4. Part of the reserves has already been sent for counterattacks in the direction of Kleshcheyevka and Krasny. Their task is to push our troops away from the road to Bakhmut through Krasnoe and formally continue to supply the defenders in the city, to deliver at least something at night, despite the shelling. The road is now virtually inaccessible. Attempts to counterattack the Armed Forces of Ukraine to de-block it did not bring results due to the good work of attack aircraft, spotters and Wagner artillery, which extinguish the enemy’s efforts.
5. Prigozhin stressed that the shell conflict with the Defense Ministry has not yet been resolved. Hardware friction should affect the pace of the operation in Artemovsk.
Today, Defense Minister Shoigu said that the enemy lost 11 thousand people in February in Artemovsk. Prigozhin noted that the enemy has 12-20 thousand people in Artemovsk (gorod, Krasnoe, Khromovo, Chas Yar).
Part of the enemy’s reserves is concentrated in the Chas Yar area. They intend to use operational reserves in the area of Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk if the crisis becomes operational.
6. In the middle and third weeks of March, they will face the issue of final withdrawal from the city or road deblocking. The Armed Forces of Ukraine in Artemivsk have a certain supply of b/c (ammo), including for heavy weapons, but with the roads cut off and such an intensity of fighting, b / c will be used up very quickly.
The situation in Severodonetsk and Mariupol will repeat, when the enemy defended city blocks with heavy weapons, but after the ammunition for tanks and Grads ran out, it became much harder for them and much easier for us. Therefore, supply issues play a crucial role in predicting the pace of liberation of the city.
7. By the evening of March 7, 2023, 45-52% of the territory of Bakhmut is under the control of Wagner.
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/23434
Also, there was report that the Russians use Tornado MLRS to hit targets in Konstantinovka, 20km WSW of Bakhmut.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 8 2023 10:09 utc | 144

“It is a fact that in most countries at least 5% of those who did not take the vaccine will be dead within 5 years.”
Actually the average death rate over the lifespan of all people is 100% over 80 years, so you are right. Everybody has more than a 5% chance to die in the next five years of their life no matter what they do.
Posted by: Rhinoskerous | Mar 8 2023 5:39 utc | 128
That is not how longevity probability works. The likelihood of death is not distributed uniformly. If it was then you would then have 5% of people dying each year at each age, which clearly does not happen. You would also then have the same rate of death in 20 year old people as in 95 year old people, which again is not happening.

Posted by: Laconic | Mar 8 2023 11:54 utc | 146

Translated:

Report of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (03/08/2023)
◽️In the Kupyansk direction , as a result of strikes by assault and army aviation, artillery fire from the “Western” group of forces, enemy manpower and equipment were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Berestovoe, Sinkovka, Krakhmalnoye of the Kharkov region and Rozovka of the Luhansk People’s Republic.
💥In addition, in the areas of the settlements of Tabaevka, Gryanikovka, Olshana of the Kharkiv region, Artemovka, Novoselovskoye and Stelmakhovka of the Luhansk People’s Republic, the actions of ten sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were suppressed.
💥During the day, up to 60 Ukrainian servicemen, two armored combat vehicles, three vehicles, as well as an Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer were destroyed in this direction .
◽️In the Krasno-Limansky direction, air strikes, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems of the group of troops (forces) “Center” hit units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Nevskoye, Novolyubovka, Chervonopopovka, Chervonaya Dibrova of the Luhansk People’s Republic and Grigorovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
💥The total losses of the enemy in this direction per day amounted to 130 Ukrainian servicemen, two infantry fighting vehicles, three armored fighting vehicles, three vehicles and a Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer .
◽️In the Donetsk direction , as a result of the active actions of the units of the “Southern” group of troops, strikes by operational-tactical, army aviation and artillery fire, more than 180 Ukrainian military personnel, two tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles, five vehicles, self-propelled howitzer “Acacia” were destroyed in a day and self-propelled howitzer “Gvozdika” .
◽️In the South-Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions , operational-tactical, army aviation and artillery of the Vostok group of forces defeated enemy units in the areas of the settlements of Ugledar, Pavlovka, Novoselka of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Novodanilovka of the Zaporozhye region.
💥During the day, up to 65 Ukrainian servicemen, one tank, two armored combat vehicles, three pickup trucks, as well as the Msta-B howitzer were destroyed in these areas .
💥In the Kherson direction, as a result of artillery fire, over 50 Ukrainian servicemen, two cars and a D-30 howitzer were destroyed in a day .
◽️Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery of groups of troops (forces) of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation defeated 87 artillery units in firing positions, manpower and equipment in 207 districts.
◽️In the area of ​​​​the settlement of Novoaleksandrivka of the Donetsk People’s Republic, a Ukrainian radar station for detecting low-flying air targets 36D6 was destroyed .
💥 Also, the headquarters of the 59th AFU motorized infantry brigade was hit near the village of Memryk, Donetsk People’s Republic.
💥During the day, air defense systems shot down four rockets of the HIMARS MBRLS and destroyed five Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of the settlements of Novaya Kakhovka, Nikolaevka, Kherson region, Chervonoarmeyskoye, Zaporozhye region, Nikolskoye, Donetsk People’s Republic, and Shipilovka, Luhansk People’s Republic.
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed (losses over previous 24hrs(+?)):
398 aircraft, (Daily avg 1.1)
217 helicopters, (Daily avg 0.6)
3,361(+5) unmanned aerial vehicles, (Daily avg 8.9)
410 surface-to-air missile systems, (Daily avg 1.1)
8,222(+17) tanks and other armored combat vehicles, (Daily avg 21.8)
1,055 multiple rocket launchers, (Daily avg 2.8)
4,300(+6) field artillery and mortars, (Daily avg 11.4) and
8,798(+18) special military vehicles. (Daily avg 23.3)

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 8 2023 12:32 utc | 148

Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny and his lobby continue to promote his image in the Western establishment. This meeting is another round of his personal PR campaign, which was not approved by the office.
According to rumors, Bankovaya is dissatisfied with such activity and personal initiative of the commander-in-chief, but they cannot do anything. The contradictions between the ZeErmak group and the Zaluzhny group will only grow closer to the elections and active operations at the front.

https://t.me/legitimniy/14913

Posted by: Down South | Mar 8 2023 12:36 utc | 150

may be someone would care to comment in detail:
the public parts of the infamous last phone conversation between Macron and Putin, Febr. 22, 2022
https://www.letemps.ch/monde/europe/emmanuel-macron-vladimir-poutine-quatre-jours-guerre-ne-sais-juriste-appris-droit

Posted by: AG | Mar 8 2023 13:07 utc | 152

AFU formations routinely attrited beyond loss of combat-effective/capable status (-30% strength) to almost destruction (-70% strength), kept in the line, without rotations out or effective reinforcement for 5 months plus.
Posted by: Outraged | Mar 8 2023 13:06 utc | 151
So their losses are so high and replacements insufficient, that means that they can’t rotate full strength units in and out, they are continuously rotating subpar strength units. Looks like a downward spiral to me unless there’s suddenly a massively larger injection of people and material – which seems unlikely that the amount of material support actually reached its peak, arguably sometime in the Fall of 2022 and is declining since.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 8 2023 13:27 utc | 154

@ Melaleuca | Mar 8 2023 13:16 utc | 153
Sounds like a Brit to my ears … with ‘basic’ language training. Note the Gas masks …

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 8 2023 13:33 utc | 156

Insider Ukrainian TG-channel Resident:
The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Bakhmut have already exceeded by several times the losses during the autumn counteroffensive in the Kharkov / Kherson direction. More than 5 brigades need to be re-equipped, they were withdrawn from the eastern front, 4 more need to be replenished by 30-40%.

https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/47291

Posted by: Down South | Mar 8 2023 13:57 utc | 158

@ unimperator | Mar 8 2023 13:27 utc | 154
As an Army, the AFU likely became combat-ineffective/incapable ~7-8 months ago re combined arms maneuver warfare, majority fully capable cohesive combat formations, attrited & rebuilt over 12 months too many times … only reduced remnant formations in their ‘Strategic Reserve’/Incomplete ‘Counter-Offensive’ Corps likely have even moderate capability/capacity. Said ‘Reserve’ unlikely to be beyond ~60-80& R&OE & manpower strength, best case. Known these ‘reserves’ have constantly been thrown into the line re desperate need to re-inforce/plug breaches during current OP phase since late Dec’22.
NCOs/Junior Officers, properly trained troops, pre-SMO, long dead(KIA)/irrecoverable WIA, many times over by now. Similar Situ re BN/BDE HQ Command staff & NCOs …
Zelensky openly fully politically committed to attempt to retake Bahkmut under highly disadvantageous circumstances (Access/comparative forces/capabilities/materiel, severe, limited & fragile logistics constraints, known probable restricted axis, severe channelized movement/maneuver constraints re terrain & ‘deployable’ formations frontage & mass, via expending Reserve, likely in vain at exhausting nurtured reserve. RF fully aware of this, certainly probable prepared re such development. Unique opportunity, even if consequential higher than norm acceptable RF casualties, to severely degrade or destroy majority of capable AFU reserves, IMV.
If so, what for AFU then ? In the meantime, fully engaged all along FEBA. At some point this over-stretched rubber band, AFU, has to break.
Cheers.

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 8 2023 14:06 utc | 160

“We know in retrospect from macaroon’s own claims that he never intended to honor the Minsk Agreements.”
Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 8 2023 14:15 utc | 163
It was Macron’s predecessor, François Hollande, who said that there was no intention to honour the Minsk Accords. I never heard of Macron saying the same.

Posted by: laguerre | Mar 8 2023 15:06 utc | 162

correction, should be “migueljose”

Posted by: migueljose | Mar 8 2023 15:11 utc | 164

@William Gruff 163
@laguerre 164
yes. Neither have I.
Apparently in fact Macaron (if we are it) was Putin´s only trusted guy.
But the point is also: How did Kiev REALLY behave?
I only know they used to communicate with Donbas only via Moscow, never directly, because they didn´t regard them as legitimate partner. Which is bullshit of course because its all about Donbas.
More likely it concured with Kiev´s usual policy of ignoring, abusing, destroying the peace process from day 1.
(why does “peace process” again sound so hollow as it already does in case of Palestine?????)

Posted by: AG | Mar 8 2023 15:20 utc | 166

@Neofeudal:
Big fights coming in, ukraine is going to get hit hard
FIFY.

Posted by: Chris | Mar 8 2023 15:40 utc | 168

The encirclement of Avdiivka continues apace. Accelerates even.
https://t.me/s/z_arhiv/19233

Posted by: too scents | Mar 8 2023 15:45 utc | 170

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 8 2023 14:15 utc | 163
Then there’s whoever was pulled out of Azovstal, Macron’s almost tragicomic attempts to mount a rescue attempt under cover of a faux humanitarian relief flotilla, and the firing of Vidaud, head of French military intelligence, presumably for getting caught implementing the Ukraine strategy of which they all knew and approved.
It is clear that Putin knew a lot more about what had being going on behind the scenes, and that what is reported in that transcript is only a carefully chosen subsection of a private diplomatic conversation which itself was spoken in a kind code that makes only sidelong reference to the truth.
While Macron talked, Ukrainian biolabs were being hastily purged of incriminating evidence … something French intelligence agencies will have known enough about to correctly intuit their purpose and scope.
That the Macronists though leaking that exchange somehow bolstered their case leaves one with the impression that their culpability for grubby fascist enabling is a physical object, literally poking out of their collective asses.

Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 8 2023 15:50 utc | 172

@175 yes, of course it is considered and continuously evaluated. However when watches what the hands do and not what people say, like russian mod updates, there does seem to be friction.
The disinformation as far as I can tell originated in the west though, as a signal to their traitors in Russia. If it wasn’t a thing before it was manufactured to become a thing after the signal.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 8 2023 15:56 utc | 174

@ Chris 175
Yes. Also that Russia won’t be slaughtering old men and boy untrained Conscripts, and get themselves ensnared in a war crimes argument.

Posted by: Giyane | Mar 8 2023 15:57 utc | 176

The Russian Aerospace Forces are destroying the positions and base of the 110th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, supporting the offensive on the front near Avdeevka
Our aircraft attacked the discovered points of temporary deployment and the positions of the 110th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Avdeevka direction. The enemy suffered losses of up to 80 personnel.
—
🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦Ukrainian sources report that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation occupied the settlement of Veseloye in the Avdiivka direction.
There is no photo or video evidence of that event(we,as always avoid to share non-confirmed,unverified information) but…
Avdeevka is fortified region region for many years and things going very slowly,superior firepower is used in order to soften positions before advancing
In order to encircle Avdeevka,from the should be taken Severne,Tonenkoe,from the east should be taken Karasnohorivka,Stepovoe etc and reach the final supply route to Orlivka
Which can take a long time,this is one of the most fortified regions that exist…

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 8 2023 16:24 utc | 178

NATO‘s strategic goals this year are to 1) destabilize the periphery of the RF and 2) get neutrals back to hating Russis
Georgia – is part of destabilizing Russia‘s periphery.
Mexico – is part of getting neutrals to play ball
We‘ll see lots more

Posted by: Exile | Mar 8 2023 17:05 utc | 180

Perhaps people who believe the Ukrainians are going to counter-attack and break the encirclement of Bakhmut should be known as solsticeites.

Posted by: Milites | Mar 8 2023 18:04 utc | 182

Military Summary speculates that UAF might try an attack SE of Konstantinovka towards Gorlovka, and/or an attack from south of Seversk toward Yakolivka (although this is less likely because they have mined that approach) or towards Krasnopolivka. Whatever it is, it might be happening within a month but more likely sooner.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 8 2023 19:13 utc | 184

Mar 8 2023 19:49 utc | 187
the nato gift to ukraine uas/drone interceptor systems iris-t already uses the nato supplied medium-extended air defense system (meads).
a vice article about iris-t: 52 hits with 52 shots is incredible, my participation in air defense exercises we did not claim more than 75%. the ukies are amazing!!! image what they could do with us army m-60 tanks!
providing iris-t to ukraine is a set up step for f-16!
iris-t is depends on a complex integrated air and missile defense system, meads, which iris-t is a german contribution to ‘meads’, ‘meads’ a highly complex set of data and communications links, connecting various sensors to command and control systems and sends combat data to fighter aircraft and weapons on their launcher (as well as surface to air launchers) as well as redirecting missiles during approach to target! i am a bit old, when i was around directing an aim 9 in flight was a dream written about by tom clancy!!
the iris-t missile is shot from the launcher from cues from meads long range situational awareness capability, the part of the meads that you do not hear about which is (kill chain support) given to ukraine, likely nato awacs (e-3) and command and control back in germany.
nato long range radars, i do not know if aegis ashore in poland and rumanias look to that azmuth(?), the e-3 is to look down at uav’s……. the communications links for iris-t are nato not soviet standard, so the comm environment is donated with iris-t.
all this stuff would link to usaf or dutch f-16’s for air to air missions, and in ground attack vectoring.
the command and control for nato fighter aircraft is likely already in ukraine. with a part of it outside ukraine, piped in to avoid having to use satellite comm.
one difference between iris-t and f-16 (or tornado) is supporting the mission, iris-t ground system operates on demand and not in 3 dimensions, f-16 operates in a mission profile a sortie, available on target only during its flight regimen.
maintaining that flight regimen requires generating sorties!!
much more complex than iris-t and hugely more highly trained people, equipment, supplies and nato spec fuel, as well as flying air refueling aircraft which ukraine does not own within 200 km of the area the fighter will attack…..
the number of highly trained skilled people behind each aircraft donated is 30 to 40 per aircraft.
all that said f-16 with a huge infrastructure will be no more impactful in ukraine than f-105’s in vietnam!
and the red line will be how usa reacts to nato e-3 becoming smoking holes in rumanian lawns.
biden needs to check the ‘human reliability’ of his minuteman crews! would they turn their keys for elenski?

Posted by: paddy | Mar 8 2023 20:22 utc | 186

I posted this the other day near the end of the open thread so I thought it worth reposting.
Pro-Ukrainian aussie blogger “Willie OAM” has posted some rather interesting long interviews with various westerners who have gone over to help Ukraine. Recently he posted this one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zopEi06jxJc
with a guy who spent some years in Ukraine before the SMO with the paramilitary groups and he gives a rather detailed account of them (on his part it seems an attempt to whitewash them). He says they they are completely embedded throughout the regular Ukrainian military, as well as making up some special units of their own, at this point. When you hear him talk about Mariupol in 2014 and compare it with this interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Drc1WGLbUE
that John Dougan and Masha did with Mariupol resident Andrey Kiror you can get a sense of the whitewashing. That said it is the most comprehensive reporting on Ukrainian paramilitary groups and their role since 2014 that I have come across.
Willie also has a couple of interviews with kids who went over to fight on their own. Their stories are quire gripping and raw.

Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 8 2023 21:07 utc | 188

Posted by: paddy | Mar 8 2023 20:22 utc | 188
If I understood correctly, Iris-T is capable of giving the target data to the fighters, this case F-16? It’s all part of the synchronized system where everything with a radar can input its data into a collective system, which can be utilized by every weapon system.
I recall reading (either one of Simplicius or BMA analysis). The idea was that as Russia force density in Ukraine grows, the economy of scale comes into play. This also means that air defense systems will become more overlapping and mutually supportive.
If you look at the start of the conflict, it was apparent that there was a relatively non-coherent and isolated force structure. As the unit structure is revamped to larger size, they should also get more air defense systems.
What do the USA realistically hope to achieve with F-16? They will fly them out of some Polish airfield, they will manage to lob a HARM missile and fly back to Poland, sure. AWACS in Belarus can see those F-16 coming far away. I also heard that US wants to install some AIM-120 air-to-air missiles on MiG-29 aircraft, but there’s a lot of technical difficulties.
That said, I could imagine that if US sends Nato airfleet from Poland under the banner of Ukraine air force to attack Russian forces, that won’t last too long as a bending-the-red-line.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 8 2023 21:35 utc | 190

Kill bold

Posted by: Exile | Mar 8 2023 22:12 utc | 192

I know a bit about the ‘fragile’ nature of the F-16, as I worked with a guy who had been ground crew for IAF F-16’s, 80’s vintage though. What I was wondering was the geographic location of their base, and the Russian likely response if it’s outside of Ukraine.

Posted by: Milites | Mar 8 2023 22:29 utc | 194

@ Melaleuca, #155, @ Outraged, #158
Was the Aussie or Brit guy leading what kind of Ukies, Territorials? Doesn’t the AFU separate their “regulars” with yellow arm bands and their “territorials” with green? I thought it was interesting that the enlisted seemed to know what he was saying in English unless he’s doing hand signals we can’t see. I wonder how long this guy has been with that unit?

Posted by: DakotaRog | Mar 8 2023 23:05 utc | 196

the pessimist #195

Situation in Georgia seems to be escalating with protestors again trying to storm parliament.

odd how the Open Society concept, discussed by Karl Popper that Soros and NED love to worship, is not so good in Georgia.
What is wrong with full disclosure and registration of all funding sources? The Georgians are full of it and have no case whatsoever. If their advocacy is so good and so right for Georgian citizens then why be so desperate to hide their $$ sources?
Could they actually be traitors and owe allegiance to a foreign power in the USA?

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 8 2023 23:26 utc | 198

44….81
Texas on his telegram seems to have evidence a Russian was captured …dressed in ukr uniform …made to speak..perhaps in a thought to save his life…..etc

Posted by: Jo | Mar 8 2023 23:46 utc | 200