@Akash | Mar 5 2023 21:03 utc | 94

.. But the most pregnant effects of the SMO are economic, and it is those economic effects that will lead to the end to this conflict IMO.

Beside of all current top stories about encirclement of UKR “Soldiers” & daily man-power losses of 700 men trying on retreat the latest “open roads”, you may not forget any plans of RU military to move on into the Kherson + Odessa region.
New very heavy bombs, as designed like the “UPAB-1500B” will be introduced to force a ‘more effective’ ground operations of RF Air attacs, even US-5Eyes/Musk-SAT/AWACS couldn’t warn those targets in advance.
Beside that ongoing conflict, every day the “Western unity” will decline day-by-day, step-by-step ..

Posted by: spare_truth | Mar 5 2023 21:35 utc | 103

@ Stonebird 79
The US arrogance prevents them from understanding what flaking of support for US imperialism by RoW will cause. They think that because nobody agrees with their bullying the world now and they can ignore the disagreement, that they will be able to weather universal condemnation if they attack Russia.
We all know what it feels like to be spied on 24/7. Their arrogance convinces them that their resent passive aggression of spying will continue to be patiently ignored when it changes to active aggression.
Already the Western leadership have a gnawing fear of their dissolute lifestyles and criminal financial activities being exposed to the public at large. Tik tok and Huawei are banned. Their mafia status only remains unexposed on a basis of live and let live.
But the second they start to throw their Intel strength around, their own balls will be chewed by unleashed pit bulls rattling their personal and corporate scandals.
Two can play at that game. Intel is very much a two-edged sword.
The West has only managed to control the SMO narrative because their enemies have created no public counter- narrative.
Russia and China have keptvtheir powder dry. Sticks and stones hurt bones, but truth is what is most feared by Oompah Liars.

Posted by: Giyane | Mar 5 2023 21:42 utc | 105

First troll: If I’m here annoying everybody it’s because I don’t want the site to become an echo chamber…
Second troll: … The site to become an echo chamber…
Third troll: … To become an echo chamber…
Fourth troll: … An echo chamber…
Fifth troll: … Echo chamber… Echo chamber…

Posted by: Leuk | Mar 5 2023 21:55 utc | 107

With the indulgence of my fellow barflies, I would like to flesh out my earlier assertions that most decisive effects of the SMO were economic, so it would be more apt to refer to it as the Special Military and Economic Operation.
Since the advent of civilization, viz. the complex whose hallmarks are urbanization, literacy, science, vocational hyper-specialization, slavery, exploitation, and the pursuit of power, there has always been tension between producers and consumers — between polis and chora as so eloquently elucidated by de Ste. Croix regarding Greece/Rome, and Hudson with regards to the lands of the Bible, for example. This tension/conflict can now be described in modern times as between the Global South, Russia, and China (primarily producers) and the Collective West (primarily consumers). Throughout the history of civilization the primary producers who were the losers in this interminable conflict, but I see the SM(E)O has having the real potential to the tip the scales and restore balance/harmony to what has been effectively two contending groupings.
More recently, financial seigniorage has been the primary means to tilt the balance towards consumers. Now we read that EU countries have spent nearly 1 trillion euros to subsidize EU energy consumers (a veritable thumb on the scale). Though I wonder if such financial means to shore up the consumers’ position is viable moving forward? And if the SM(E)O continues in Russia’s (and the ROW’s) favor, this exorbitant privilege on the part of the Collective West consumers is bound to erode, possibly to nothing. Something to keep in mind when contemplating timelines.

Posted by: Akash | Mar 5 2023 22:05 utc | 109

A finnish instructor and officer claims that Ukraine will not win
https://yle.fi/a/74-20019659
From the article.
– Ukrainians think they are good soldiers. But that doesn’t make it a skilled soldier to have eight years in the trenches to be afraid. Training makes a soldier, the officer charges.
That is why the Finnish officer has taken it upon himself to improve the training of Ukrainian soldiers, especially non-commissioned officers.
According to the officer, the only thing that has saved Ukraine so far is that Russia has succumbed to equally bad mistakes. However, it would not be worth making fun of Russia’s mistakes.
“The Russian troops have learned, but the Ukrainians have not,” says the officer.
In the officer’s opinion, the level of competence of the Ukrainian armed forces is disconcertingly low – and the more he has seen it, the more miserable he considers the level.
– Really bad leadership, poor tactical and combat technical skills. They have taken an example mainly from video games and movies, the officer says.
Peace and love from Scandinavia

Posted by: Paul | Mar 5 2023 22:07 utc | 111

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 5 2023 20:28 utc | 85
Comparisons with what Russia achieved in WW2 do not even remotely apply here. That was a war against extinction. In this SMO, the moral side of Russia is not as strong as that. No matter what apologists say, Russians could have lived very good lives, albeit enslaved a bit to the progressive nutsos from the West, without the SMO. There were other choices. There were no choices with the Nazi armies in WW2.
I am not the one having delusions. The facts on the ground, what can be seen and not subject to propaganda from both sides, are not that great.
It is justifiable, on one hand you have a regime that has transformed under pressure towards authoritarian medieval times and on the other a nation that seeks to sustain a high living standard and citizen freedoms while fighting the most intense war in the last 60 years. What else do you expect?
But maybe you are right. The complete collapse of the AFU is just around the corner.

Posted by: alek_a | Mar 5 2023 22:08 utc | 113

If the war stopped tomorrow, the price of oil and other Russian exports would crash along with the ruble.
Russia’s oil exporting friends want the war to last as long as possible.
If the sanctions leave the scene, multiples of US energy and military industry exporting companies’ stocks would likely crash.
There would be one less distraction for many, which could turn focus inward to find the lies etc… of the last few years become prominent to the point of dramatic pricing shifts when marginal returns are hit by falling demand.
It’s Zugzwang for the US and Russia elites to stop fighting, hence the sacrifice of the bottom X% for as long as it takes.
Posted by: Aenbr Nood | Mar 5 2023 18:03 utc | 53
Thank you!! I believe in utilizing Occam’s razor when it’s needed and the answers you give here are clear, simple, & accord entirely with it as far as I am aware.
I have only been commenting here a couple weeks but this makes a great deal of sense. The U$ elites’ “Creative Destruction” is mere posturing, it is Looting (creative to a point) & destructive to the majority populace, about which they care not one whit. The Russians have already spent a fair amount of blood & treasure (as well as what the Hegemon looted or destroyed, Nordstream), good for their leadership on making sure that things END with net benefit to Russia as a regional power, & presumably much of its populace also.

Posted by: SkepticalThinker | Mar 5 2023 22:16 utc | 115

To those wondering if VVP is still beholden to oligarchs – I guess it’s possible.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Mar 5 2023 20:51 utc | 92
There was an snippet of an interview I saw between Putin and a Russia journalist and the question he posed was (paraphrasing) in the nineties the oligarchs arose yet 30 years later they’re still there.
Putin’s answer was- yes they are still there but the difference is that the oligarchs in the nineties were running whole government departments, institutions etc. for their own financial benefit. They were literally making decisions for the government and the government officials duly carried them out.
Now, the oligarchs have no influence, no say in government whatsoever. They are simply business men whose power in government was neutralised.

Posted by: Down South | Mar 5 2023 22:20 utc | 117

Ukraine mobilisation update, posted by @skadefron today on Twitter:
Ukraine’s Cherkasy, military registration and enlistment offices posted notices with following text:
“March 30, all who already been summoned and passed commission must appear.
By April 15, all those who not passed commission or have not received summons must appear”
https://twitter.com/skadefron/status/1632484434338365447
Posted by: Irish | Mar 5 2023 21:16 utc | 100
Cherkasy had a pre-war population of 270,000. 125,000 are male. I don’t how many males are between 16 and 60. I wonder how many males Ukraine will cull from Cherkasy?
Cherkasy is almost 100 miles from Kiev. I have a friend who lives 40 miles from Kiev. He’s an 35-year old historian/musician. His Dad was Russian and his mother Ukrainian. We emailed each other twice a week. We liked the same movies and progressive rock. Often we waxed vividly about Russian/Ukraine history. He focused mostly on Art/Music/Culture/and the lifestyle contrast of urban Russian father’s side of the family and his rural Ukrainian mother’s side. After November 2022 he became extra-careful with his speech. And the frequency of emails dropped to one a month. I worry about him. He’s not a fighter.

Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | Mar 5 2023 22:25 utc | 119

Posted by: Leuk | Mar 5 2023 21:55 utc | 109
Well played [prolonged golf applause]
~~~

With the indulgence of my fellow barflies, I would like to flesh out my earlier assertions that most decisive effects of the SMO were economic, so it would be more apt to refer to it as the Special Military and Economic Operation.

Posted by: Akash | Mar 5 2023 22:05 utc | 111
Thank you, an astute observation that crystallises a lot of my own thoughts. The economic aspect is often overlooked, perhaps deliberately so, by the various concern trolls that inhabit these forums.
This part, “exorbitant privilege on the part of the Collective West consumers is bound to erode, possibly to nothing” poses huge potential difficulties for the economic seigneurs, as the ‘consumers’ find their position reduced to ‘serfs’, but there are an awful lot who will be getting distinctly angry at their reduced status and might decide to see what can be achieved with pitchforks, torches, ropes and piano wire…
The elite are sowing the seeds of their own downfall.

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 5 2023 22:33 utc | 121

@El Lissitzky 97
For some reason I never really believed the Sam Powers model really does exist.
I would always think that on some level it eventually would turn out as mere acting it out.
Fakery as much as public journalism/reportage is acting one way or another
No one can be really that dumb.
I want to assume.
But sure, there is always a first…

Posted by: AG | Mar 5 2023 22:34 utc | 123

Posted by: Paul | Mar 5 2023 22:07 utc | 113

.. “The Russian troops have learned, but the Ukrainians have not,” says the officer. ..

That might be true, but pls. keep the fact in mind :
that a min. part of 30 % (I guess) of these so-called “Ukranian Soldiers” are foreign mercenaries who most of them proudly presenting any old+new style NAZI emblems & sticks on their clothes, and they are always the ‘first group’ & commanders leaving any critical battle locations, and left the other comrades behind (ie. verified today for Bakhmut).

Posted by: spare_truth | Mar 5 2023 22:52 utc | 125

Posted by: circumspect | Mar 5 2023 18:04 utc | 54
Was really looking forward to reading the ‘INTRO’ (pdf) you posted the link to, but it simply goes to Armstrong Economics main page. I suspect that content is only available to paying subscribers.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 5 2023 23:35 utc | 127

UKRAINE FRONTLINE TROOPS “STARVING TO DEATH” AS OFFICERS IN THE REAR HOARD SCARCE FOOD
A Ukraine source on the frontline in Bakhmut has revealed the extent of starvation amongst troops being forced to fight a losing battle in hot zone Bakhmut. “Theyre starving to death” said the source, who wished to remain anonimous. “Meanwhile, food supplies are being stored in the rear by officers”.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Mar 5 2023 23:49 utc | 129

Posted by: alek_a | Mar 5 2023 22:24 utc | 120
#############
Great post. Thank you. I had to wade through a lot of concern/doom trolling, but the effort paid off when I read what you wrote.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 6 2023 0:27 utc | 131

Now, the oligarchs have no influence, no say in government whatsoever. They are simply business men whose power in government was neutralised.

And in that sense, Russians are certainly more blessed that the west.
Here, oligarchs run the government, including directly writing legislation and making sure that no genuine threat to their “full spectrum dominance” of both business and government emerges. Their names are Google, Pfizer, Monsanto, and Lockheed Martin, rather than family names.

Posted by: Chris | Mar 6 2023 0:36 utc | 133

infoshark@3
Hmm several dozen autonomous nuclear powered nuclear warhead torpedoes. What could possibly go wrong.
Apologies if appears twice.

Posted by: Inki | Mar 6 2023 0:46 utc | 135

Posted by: Leuk | Mar 5 2023 21:55 utc | 109
. Echo chamber…
Well illustrated.
Always found it funny how they all present the same “different perspective” over and over again for months on end …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Mar 6 2023 0:57 utc | 137

I dont think Joe Biden can do a succesful bathroom trip by himself.
I would be worried about the lunatics that go by name of Nuland, Blinkers, Sully and “dr” Jill
They can destroy the world.

Posted by: Comandante | Mar 6 2023 1:11 utc | 139