Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 05, 2023

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-55

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b on March 5, 2023 at 14:41 UTC | Permalink

Comments
next page »

Yalensis of Awful Avalanche is doing a series of articles on the Soledar mines.

Part One

Part Two

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Mar 5 2023 14:48 utc | 1

Theater Command basic & negligible Intelligence Staff work & Analysis ...

TL&DR AFU is in a Hospice, approaching extended life support ... being abandoned by supposed family & friends (US/NATO/EU) ...

Note: MOD Clobber List, averaged over the past 373 days of the SMO, so far, per day(24hrs). Updated averages as @ Mar03'23 vs Dec23'22. Averages probable slightly lower due diminishing systems actually available to be targeted/engaged for destruction:

21.8 (22.5 @ Dec22) tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
(Equivalent of over 2 AFU Tank/Mech Battalions 'DESTROYED' (100%) every three days)

2.8 (2.9 @ Dec22) multiple rocket launcher combat vehicles,
(Equivalent of over 1 AFU MBRLS Batteries 'DESTROYED' (100%) every two days)

11.4 (11.6 @ Dec22) field artillery, guns and mortars,
(Equivalent of over 2 AFU Artillery Batteries 'DESTROYED' (100%) every day) and

Hence, for example, US/NATO would need to manufacture & promptly supply, new production:

Over ~5,183 Artillery & MBRLS systems(@ up to ~$8M+ per unit($26,523+ Billion) over next 12 months, at a sustained rated of ~12/day deliverable, being two full Artillery Batteries+ delivered to FEBA every 24 hours, and

Over ~7,957 AFVs (@ from ~$3M+ up to ~$10M+ per unit($42,437+ Billion) over next 12 months, at a sustained rated of ~22/day deliverable, being two full Tank/Mech Battalions delivered to FEBA every 72 hours.

Merely for AFU to continue in its current derelict state (Crew-served platforms/systems/vehicles only).

Note: Platform only, excludes all additional & supplementary costs & resources required re deployment/sustainment/servicing/support/maintenance/ordnance/POL/etc, including specialist trained crews/support replacement & training.

Materiel losses necessary to be supplied to FEBA daily, or every 10, 30, 60, 90, 180, 360 days merely to sustain current AFU status ?!

AFU manpower, critically short, is meaningless, near zero combat power, without unit cohesive, trained crew-served combined arms Troops/NCOs/Officers operating system platforms, sustained sufficient materiel & ammunition, functional reliable timely logistics train, etc ... minimum.

Note: 2 Brigades 'broke' & had to retreat over Feb11-12'23 period in Bhakmut due to no small arms ammunition. Others, unreported ? It is now indisputable AFU has an absolute critical shortage of severely rationed shells/rounds/rockets for Arty/Mortars/MBLRS. Weight of Fire vs RF at 1:10 disadvantage minimum and decreasing.

Translated, abbreviated, MOD Clobber list as @ (03.03.2023)

📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed:
394 aircraft, (Daily avg 1.1)
212 helicopters, (Daily avg 0.6)
3313 unmanned aerial vehicles, (Daily avg 8.9)
407 surface-to-air missile systems, (Daily avg 1.1)
8129 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, (Daily avg 21.8)
1048 multiple rocket launchers, (Daily avg 2.8)
4262 field artillery and mortars, (Daily avg 11.4) and
8680 special military vehicles. (Daily avg 23.3)

Comment:

In an interview with the Economist December 03 2022, AFU General Zaluzhny stated to help his forces push back the RF (Not win the War!), he needed:
300 modern MBTs(Tanks), 600-700 Infantry Fighting Vehicles (~950 total AFVs) and 500 howitzers.

So, again, updated just for the lolz ... given accrued losses since Dec03'22 to Mar03'23, US/NATO would need to supply ~2,109 AFVs & ~1,250 MBLRS/Artillery/Mortars, at FEBA, now, TODAY! simply to revert to approximate overall yet even weaker Situ than @ Dec03'22. Um!

Approximate breakdown is 530 MBTs & 1,579 IFVs, as well as 250 MBLRS & 1,000 Artillery pieces/Mortars ...

~950 + 1,159(losses) = therefore ~2,109 AFVs, and
500 + (140 + 610)(750 losses) = therefore ~1,250 MBLRS/Artillery/Mortars.

By Jun03'23 (further 90 days) an additional ~1,159 AFVs & ~750 MBRLS/Artillery/Mortars will be required ... er!

Note: The above losses are exclusive unclaimed/unconfirmed by RF platform destruction/loss in repair/maintenance workshops/warehouses rear of FEBA, in logistical transit to or from FEBA re Poland/Western Ukraine, unserviceable/abandoned outside combat, captured/abandoned during retreat/withdrawal from, for example Soledar/Bahkmut/etc. In addition each & every asset loss below incurs additional specialist unclaimed manpower losses, KIA/WIA/MIA.

Hm AFU ... stick a fork in it, it's done ... on a one way death ride to Valhalla. Any National leader/Military Commander worthy of the title, should have already entered negotiations re surrender terms & prompt ceasefire, pending finalization/demobilization, to prevent further pointless mass loss of life/limb/destruction & wider suffering/destitution, IMV.

(Dec03'22 to Mar03'23)
AFU losses for period in total (90 days):

58 Aircraft,
34 Helicopters,
704 UAVs,
16 AD Systems (excluding destroyed irreplaceable pre '91 soviet radars),
1,159 Tanks & other Armored Vehicles, (~13 Tank/Mech Brigades assets (~4+ Full Armored/Mechanized Divisions)(100% total loss))
140 MBRLS, (~23 MBRLS Batteries assets (100% total loss))
610 Artillery & Mortars (~102 Artillery/Mortar Batteries assets (100% total loss)), and
1,230 special military vehicles.

(03.12.22)
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed:
336 aircraft, (Daily avg 1.1)
178 helicopters, (Daily avg 0.6)
2,609 unmanned aerial vehicles, (Daily avg 8.8)
391 surface-to-air missile systems, (Daily avg 1.2)
6,970 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, (Daily avg 22.5)
908 multiple rocket launchers, (Daily avg 2.9)
3,652 field artillery and mortars, (Daily avg 11.6) and
7,450 special military vehicles. (Daily avg 24)

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 5 2023 14:50 utc | 2

RF may have neutralized the previously invulnerable leg of the Western Strategic Nuclear Program.

Source: Surprise Attack ICBMs and the Real Nuclear Threat, Dr. Peter Vincent Pry
Executive Director, Task Force on National and Homeland Security October 31, 2020.


"My report POSEIDON: Russia’s New Doomsday Machine (2018) warns that this new Russian nuclear autonomous “torpedo” may be a secret weapon to destroy U.S., British and French SSBNs.46 Poseidon is a nuclear-powered robot submarine or torpedo, armed with a nuclear warhead described by various Russian sources as ranging from 2-200 megatons, the later by far the most powerful nuclear weapon ever built.47 The yield may be mission selectable.
Moscow advertises Poseidon’s mission as a doomsday machine, designed to raise radioactive tsunamis to inundate U.S. coasts, or to destroy U.S. ports, or to trail and destroy U.S. aircraft carrier groups.48 None of these missions makes sense for Poseidon, as Russia can already accomplish all of them by other existing means.

The one mission that makes the most sense for Poseidon, not mentioned by Russia, is trailing and destroying at-sea SSBNs. Nuclear-powered, Poseidon could tail SSBNs for months or years, waiting outside ports for their target to resume patrols. Artificially intelligent, Poseidon could be programmed to recognize the acoustic signature of its target submarine and detonate on command. The lethal radius of a 100-megaton warhead against submarines is over 100 kilometers.

Russia plans to deploy 32 Poseidons.50 Perhaps not coincidentally, enough to assign two Poseidons to tail each of 12 Columbia SSBNs and 8 Poseidons to target the 8 SSBNs of allies Britain and France."

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/trecms/AD1114212


Posted by: infoshark | Mar 5 2023 14:51 utc | 3

There is no mass exit of units from Bakhmut, there is only non-mass 🤦‍♂️

Circus! Command can't figure out how to admit the obvious. The city was too promoted by Zelensky as a fortress city.

Too many people were put in Bakhmut. The loss of the city is a recognition of the futility of these losses. It was necessary to leave earlier, as Zalugny suggested. But the OP decided on their own.


https://t.me/legitimniy/14897

Posted by: Down South | Mar 5 2023 15:05 utc | 4

Prof. Richard Wolff presents his rather terse, rather constrained views on the Ukraine war and gets abused in the comments section:

https://youtu.be/hYIRsU34CnA

They wanted him to wave a little blue and yellow flag but he had other ideas.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Mar 5 2023 15:10 utc | 5

I think Russia's problem now is how to get this war to 2024. A longer war potentially creates 'second winter' political changes in Germany, and definitely obstructs a real (rather than just rhetorical) shift of US belligerence toward China.

Posted by: fairleft | Mar 5 2023 15:13 utc | 6

🇺🇸🇷🇺More and more Americans are beginning to see Vladimir Putin as the hero and the president they would like to see in their country. American Thinker columnist Laura Wellington wrote about the growing social media trend.

She noted that the Russian leader’s previously limited popularity in the United States was due to his commitment to sports and a healthy lifestyle. But lately the trend has changed. Americans see Putin as a man who cares about his country and his people far more than they do in the White House. The publication indicates that such a metamorphosis is also a consequence of the mistrust sown between Biden and American citizens.

"It shows how desperate the American people have become, how they envy the leader of a nemesis because of his supposed exclusivity and loyalty... "In two years, life has become so surreal, unreachable, and mad enough that fleeing to Russia begins to look good for some," noted the author.

According to the author of the article, this turn of events is an indicator of the complete failure of the Biden administration. And Putin’s rise in popularity in the United States should not be taken as accidental.

https://www.easternherald.com/2023/03/05/at-americans-want-a-president-like-putin/


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/36027

Posted by: Down South | Mar 5 2023 15:14 utc | 7

Deindustrial center: how the Americans are ruining the German military-industrial complex
https://en.topcor.ru/32766-deindustrialnyj-centr-kak-amerikancy-razvalivajut-vpk-germanii.html

(article speaks how German MIC will fall, or get absorbed by American MIC)

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 5 2023 15:25 utc | 8

Posted by: fairleft | Mar 5 2023 15:13 utc | 6

I think Russia's problem now is how to get this war to 2024.

At the rate Russia is currently going that should not be a problem at all.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Mar 5 2023 15:30 utc | 9

@ fairleft | Mar 5 2023 15:13 utc | 6

Infuriate the NAFOs, Generals of the 101st Chairborne & War as Sport fans Brigade, with an escalatory Operational shift to ... Extra-Double-Slow, Slow-SMO, to keep it ticking over, perhaps ?

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 5 2023 15:31 utc | 10

What's with these two gals?....the Vicki and Samantha twin sisters
In a CNN Fareed Zakaria Town Hall event last week,

ZH link:Samantha Power Lets Slip The US Is At War With Russia, But "Ukrainians Doing The Fighting"

ZH's text:


In a CNN panel last week, the head of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Samantha Power issued some very revealing words on the Russia-Ukraine war, wherein she admitted that the US is at war with Russia but that it's "Ukrainians doing the fighting".

Her words came during a CNN 'town hall' event, which also featured Biden national security adviser Jake Sullivan, marking the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

She had specifically responded to a question from an audience member, who asked: "What vital interest does to the US have in Ukraine?" At one point in forming a response she actually gave what ranks among the most ridiculously simplistic clichés sometimes uttered by D.C. policymakers - that America stands up to "bullies".

"I think Americans understand bullies and the importance of standing up to bullies," she said. But here's where she said the quiet part out loud, letting it slip that in some sense the US sees Ukraine as a pawn in the greater geostrategic game of ultimately defeating Russia:
She explained the need for a broad coalition of countries in order to show "This isn't just the United States and Russia, this in fact is Ukrainians on the front lines, Ukrainians doing the fighting..." The set of assumptions behind this statement by a top Biden admin official is very revealing, however casually she may have slipped it in. Watch the clip below:[.]
(end of ZH text with original emphasis)

AND

CNN text with the video link:

[Bot Sullivan and Samantha Power, administrator of the US Agency for International Development, took questions at the town hall from Americans and Ukrainians Thursday, on topics ranging from how the US will keep arming Ukraine to an assessment of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions and the role China may play in the conflict.

The US officials praised the resilience of the Ukrainian people as they were questioned by Ukrainians including a 14-year-old girl and a soldier serving on the front lines of the war in the country’s military. (emphasis here on the sickos)

‘Russia has already lost’

US officials have signaled that the war is likely to drag on for months still, with no real end in sight.[.]
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/24/politics/takeaways-cnn-ukraine-war-town-hall/index.html

There won't be enough pain management opiates to dull the shock when reality dawns.

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 5 2023 15:35 utc | 11

Outraged @ 2

Exactly. When Zelensky et al talk "If we don't have X, Y, and Z by August it will be bad" they are describing the current situation. The only thing preventing unconditional surrender is an enormous overburden of propaganda.

There are still apparently tens of thousands of Poles and English speaking mercs with some supplies. The vast ISR system simplicius has recently described is still there. ISR does no good if there are no functioning barrels or tubes in position and no rounds to fire. The Nazi battalions are still alive but horrors, some have been reported actually engaging in combat rather than shooting their front line slaves in the back. Pressed to engage in combat they are useless militia.

Posted by: oldhippie | Mar 5 2023 15:35 utc | 12

Somebody said long ago that Russia has only two allies. Its army and its navy.
It is more then true.
Specially the leaders of Slavic countries are always eager to be bought and to do some dirty stuff against Russia.

Every day, it is getting clearer and clearer, to our shame, that awful Serbian dictator A. Vucic organized export of weapons to Ukraine via third countries and that was going on for years. His private arms dealer S. Tesic also organized selling of weapons to ISIS and Azerbaijan, as USA had requested.
In the same time A. Vucic played Putin's friend because most of the population is still pro-Russian.

Posted by: Srbin | Mar 5 2023 15:36 utc | 13

"I would like to remind you Alexander III, our emperor, once said that Russia has just two allies, the armed forces and the navy. In a message addressed to his son he warned that everybody feels scared at the vastness of Russia. Incidentally, there is a certain reason behind that," Putin said during the Direct Line question-and-answer session televised live on Thursday.

https://tass.com/russia/789866

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Mar 5 2023 15:55 utc | 14

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 5 2023 14:50 utc | 2

One has to wonder when those losses of equipment will start to translate to higher casualties. That they will inevitably do and they arguably are doing with huge ratio advantage for Russians. If they don't have guns, then they are as good as dead.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 5 2023 15:58 utc | 15

fairleft | Mar 5 2023 15:13 utc | 6 -- "I think Russia's problem now is how to get this war to 2024."

No, that is projecting onto Russia the problem of the US policy. The US needs years to ramp up its ability to fight this. The US wishes for every possible delay. It dreams of holding on for another year or more.

Posted by: Mark Thomason | Mar 5 2023 15:58 utc | 16

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 5 2023 15:35 utc | 11

General Kellogg, the advisor to Mike Pence just stated that Ukraine is used to fight Russia to help US war against China. In essence he means that because Russians are fighting Ukraine, they won't be able to interfere with US war against China.

"Ret. Gen. Keith Kellogg, ex-advisor to Mike Pence, says it's the "acme of professionalism" to use Ukraine to fight Russia because that "takes a strategic adversary off the table" without "using any US troops." And then "we can focus" on "our primary adversary, which is China.""

https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1631390869487067136

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 5 2023 16:00 utc | 17

I just wanted to put a “thank you” out there to the MofA community. It is great to have a place to go where critical thinkers gather. In my day to day life I am surrounded by people who drink up the narrative and have Stockholm Syndrome.

Posted by: Slat1 | Mar 5 2023 16:02 utc | 18

@ Biswapriya Purkayast | Mar 5 2023 14:48 utc | 1

thanks biswapriya... yalensis has a good site with a lot of good info... i don't visit it often enough..

Posted by: james | Mar 5 2023 16:09 utc | 19

@ jpc | Mar 5 2023 16:09 utc | 20

power brokers of the usa seem to like flirting with the idea of having women bimbos in power... samantha powers is a good case example.. her and victoria nuland continue to yammer on about bullies.. they ought to know first hand, as they demonstrate exactly that in their official capacity towards others who have an alternative view... nuland and powers ought to have left the stage a long time ago and yet they keep on hanging on...

Posted by: james | Mar 5 2023 16:12 utc | 21

I think Russia's problem now is how to get this war to 2024. A longer war potentially creates 'second winter' political changes in Germany, and definitely obstructs a real (rather than just rhetorical) shift of US belligerence toward China.

Posted by: fairleft | Mar 5 2023 15:13 utc | 6

More delusional nonsense.

Russia's problem is that very clearly the political elite is deeply compromised and is not willing to fight a serious war.

Until that problem is resolved internally, expect more disasters on the battlefield.

The situation right now is strongly reminiscent to the summer of last year -- Ukraine is trading the lives of its male population for time. Which is no problem for their leadership because it is fully captured, and for their masters in the West dead Ukrainians are in fact not a bad thing -- Russians are killing other Russians, and Russian territory is being destroyed.

Then Russia didn't even bother to disrupt the preparations for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and eventually lost both whatever it held in Kharkov and the right bank of Kherson. Largely without a fight. I can't recall a more shameful chapter in Russian military history.

Well, this time there might be a fight (though that is by no means guaranteed), but it doesn't mean it will be a successful defense.

The numbers don't look good -- they went in with 150K, then they mobilized another 300K plus maybe 100K volunteers and additional Wagner recruits, they lost 30K KIA and presumably 60K WIA. What is left is 400K, most of them doing god knows what god knows where away from the front lines, and if Ukraine does another rapid offensive they will once again not be positioned in place to stop it.

Even more importantly, this isn't remotely sufficient for the kind of major offensive operations that are needed. The Red Army needed 3M men to liberate Ukraine back in the days, and that was with a much more friendly local population at the time (Banderites are 5-10x stronger than they were back then, again because the Russian elite never bothered to stop them from taking over the whole country before the war).

Where does this lead to?

Until you see full mobilization, at least a million-strong army being prepared, and missiles strikes actually hitting significant targets (notice how they largely stopped and Ukraine has electricity without too many issues for three weeks running, so even that was in the end just a waste of Kalibrs and Kh-101s), I am not even sure there is much of a point following what's happening daily. It is a waste of time. But it is so awful and monstrous -- the betrayal in the late 1980s was in peace time, but this time they are doing it again while there's a major existential war going on -- that one just can't stop thinking about it.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 5 2023 16:13 utc | 22

❗️🇬🇧🇺🇦 By the beginning of March 2023, the total losses of the Ukrainian side during the year of the special military operation amounted to 207 thousand people.

Of these, 99 thousand are irretrievable losses.


https://t.me/rybar/44276

Posted by: Down South | Mar 5 2023 16:13 utc | 23

There won't be enough pain management opiates to dull the shock when reality dawns.

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 5 2023 15:35 utc | 11

What's with these gals?

Neither of them have actually dealth with the reality of what they endorse.
Never been on ground when lives and countries are being destroyed.
It's all abstract stuff at a distance.
Or a visit to photo opportunity somewhere safe.
That's what it for them.

Posted by: jpc | Mar 5 2023 16:17 utc | 24

There won't be enough pain management opiates to dull the shock when reality dawns.

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 5 2023 15:35 utc | 11

Indeed. For which side though?

Let's be realistic, when exactly do you foresee Russian tanks rolling unopposed between Rovno and Khmelnitsky the way the war has been going on so far?

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 5 2023 16:17 utc | 25

Right now there is a shortage of Adderall in the US. A MYSTERIOUS shortage. Adderall is an amphetamine-like substance.

Right now it's reported that the Ukrainian army uses lots and lots of painkillers and amphetamines to motivate their troops on the front lines.

Just saying.

Posted by: Bob In Portland, Ore | Mar 5 2023 16:19 utc | 26

@ Srbin | Mar 5 2023 15:36 utc | 13

Oh, really ? Au contraire, très bien, en effet ...

Two Majors - English Channel (TG) & @RT_Special

🇷🇺🇷🇸🇺🇦 Author of analytical Telegram channel Balkan Gossiper @balkanossiper exposed the lies about Serbian arms deliveries to Ukraine

The past week was marked by a sensation: in the Russian segment of Telegram was full of rumors that Serbia had been supplying weapons to the Kiev regime. For several days in a row, authors of major channels published "evidence" of the arrival of the shells in Ukraine, and the Serbian leadership was hit with a barrage of angry comments from indignant Russian patriots.

It all started on February 27, when a major Russian news website published a video of 3,500 Serbian Grad MLRS rockets, allegedly destined for Ukraine, in a warehouse in Bratislava. And if you look closely at the export permit, you can see the inscription in Serbian, which reads: ‘Under the terms of the contract, the items are intended exclusively for the use of the Turkish defense complex.’

Images of the warehouse quickly started circulatin on the web. Of course, they were accompanied with scathing comments about the "traitor brothers who supply weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces.” Representatives of the Serbian arms factory were forced to deny the rumors: the official statement of Krušik said that the company was in no way connected with the sale of weapons to the end user from Ukraine and found itself at the center of the scandal because of the journalists’ unprofessionalism.

However, a large-scale campaign against the Serbian authorities has already been launched on the Web. In pursuit of sensationalism, information was spread from all the channels that "Defense Minister Vucovic" had allegedly confirmed supplies to Ukraine, and that Serbia had done that under pressure from the EU. None of the authors were confused by the fact that there is no Minister Vucovic in Serbia. His name is Milos Vucevic, and he did not make such statements.

The non-existent minister is by no means the only blunder of the hype fans. Literally the day after the release of the video from Bratislava, "irrefutable evidence" appeared on the Net that Serbian ammunition had already been delivered to Ukraine. The arrival of Krušik products to Ukraine was "confirmed" by the first image that popped up in an English-language search engine when searching for "missile. Moreover, the photo taken by Madeline Kelly had already been used in a completely different context by the German and Spanish press in the design of their news materials.

As for the documents published by Mash, not only Krušik representatives had doubts about their authenticity. A close examination of the "export authorization" revealed that it was issued by the Ministry of Trade, Tourism and Telecommunications, although a special government commission issues permits for arms exports in Serbia. In addition, the document contains a code that corresponds to the export of flour to Montenegro.

The Turkish mediator Arca Savunma Sanayi Ticaret in Serbia also raises many questions. The legal address of the office in Belgrade is unheard of, and the person in whose name it is registered died back in 2021.

Thus, the telegram "experts" have forgotten the main journalism law: check the sources and reliability of the information published.

2nd degree, credibility burn, Srbin.

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 5 2023 16:26 utc | 27

At theduran.com, Pono has an interesting thought (if I understand it correct):

The goal with the Ukraine war from a US point of view has been simply to end any existing and future economic ties between Germany/EU and Russia. The plan was twofold:

1. To cut NSx2
2. Smear the russians so bad that the germans/EU can never do business with them again.

So whether the war drags on or ends soon is not the key part - of importance is only to provoke the Russians to do something uacceptable towards the Ukrainians - be it for real or imaginary!

Posted by: Baddy | Mar 5 2023 16:28 utc | 28

I was beginning to worry about shadowbanned. He wasn't around yesterday and I suspect the janitor accidentally unplugged him Friday night while mopping the floors in the computer room, much like Mickey Mouse and his nemesis Master Cylinder. Good to see your transistors and diodes are running again, but it would be a sorry life to realize the only light in your life is the LEDs blinking across the aisle in the other server bank.

Posted by: Quid Me Vexare | Mar 5 2023 16:38 utc | 29

@
unimperator | Mar 5 2023 16:00 utc | 17

@ jpc | Mar 5 2023 16:09 utc | 20

Many thanks.

I repeat there will be a shortage of opiates to relieve the pain.

Nuland thinks she can use her cookie cutter in a slingshot to take down a Kinzhal and defeat Russia. Psychopathy is the apt descriptor.

Billions for Ukraine while USA infrastructure rots.

= = = = = = =

In reply to mine at post 11
@
Indeed. For which side though?
Let's be realistic, when exactly do you foresee Russian tanks rolling unopposed between Rovno and Khmelnitsky the way the war has been going on so far?

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 5 2023 16:17 utc | 25

I sense you opine Russia is not moving fast enough (avoiding deploying shock and awe) and will be defeated.
May I strongly suggest you offer your services to Nuland, Blinken, Power et al. Or Team Jorge (TJ)-- it appears you are already a member of the TJ board given the time and space you occupy here.

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 5 2023 16:40 utc | 30

@ fairleft 6

I think Russia's problem now is how to get this war to 2024.

I agree. Russia is so very obviously not doing some things that from a military perspective would be normal.
I don't count the non-bombing of the 22 bridges over the Dniper, so the Ukies can send all that equipment to be destroyed where it's supposedly more convenient for Russian forces. But the Russian decision to allow the last 10,000 teenagers, old men and Nazi "stiffeners" to walk out of Bakhmut does not make military sense. The lives of thousands of relatively innocent conscripts - abductees really, could be saved and we all know Russians value their Slavic brothers because they have paid in Russian blood to kill as few as possible in real battles. I won't say this too loudly because I'm not a "concern troll", but I do think the Kremlin will have a harder time as 2023 wears on, to keep a cover on their deliberate slow walking. The reliable compass is the 3 goals Putin stated in December, 2021. De-Nazification and de-NATOisation are "big ticket" items, and always were from the get-go.

So the West is going to have to endure real pain before those goals are met. I"m sure that Putin and his entire team understand this verrrry well, and have for two decades. So ... General Winter of 2023-24 when the EU has no more natural gas in storage, when NATO runs out of ammo, when the US slits its own throat with moar stupid sanctions, etc.? Yes. The Russian army will have to be parked on the Polish border after taking all of the Ukraine, the Polish people will have to decide on their own that they can't afford a Russian-hating government, ditto for most of the EU where governments will have to be voted out of office, and even the American people may need to wake up and realize the American Dream was just a dream -and not even a very good dream. Time is what it takes. Not to be lost in this analysis is that too-sudden moves might turn the neocons into suicidal maniacs, but slow-walking also helps prevent suicidal panic. Note: It's the Russians and the people of Ukraine who are paying the price for this insurance policy against nuclear war. The world owes them a lot for that.

The only thing that might end the slow-walk is if NATO's next "rebuild" of the UAF really would have enough "teeth" to hurry up the Kremlin. But I doubt NATO can do that, even if the latest photos of US tanks, trucks, artillery etc piled on the docks of Gdansk looks like it will kill a lot more people before it all gets burnt - if Russia continues to leave the Polish border wide open. Can we all pray for a quick strike down from Western Belarus to close that border ?

Posted by: JessDTruth | Mar 5 2023 16:43 utc | 31

@ unimperator | Mar 5 2023 15:58 utc | 15

Nor sufficient shells/rounds/rockets/AD missiles, even small arms ammo to fire or grenades to throw ...

Once the AFU is forced into open warfare with destruction of their weak hasty last defensive line of fortified entrenchments, the breached LoC rolled up from the flanks & rear, or even merely their remaining MSRs severed by limited penetration/exploitation OPs, the extant unsustainable AFU casualty rate will skyrocket. An even worse slaughter.

Standby my analysis going back to Nov: The trained & 'Soviet' equipped AFU, 'NATO'(?) standard, Regular Army ceased to be Combat effective ~Jun/Jul '22. Everything since is an abhorrent, knowing, slow yet inevitable & unavoidable, death-ride of the Doomed. US/NATO/AFU Command knew it, certainly much earlier, yet ?

AFU have zero capacity to conduct combined arms maneuver warfare at even modest scale, even beyond a single Brigade, at most two, IMO.

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 5 2023 16:52 utc | 32

@Outraged | Mar 5 2023 14:50 utc | 2

Any National leader/Military Commander worthy of the title, should have already entered negotiations re surrender terms & prompt ceasefire,

General Zaluzhny wears a bracelet engraved with Nazi runes. This clip from Vassily Prozorov gives a good description of the Nazi death cult mindset
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPcb59yrBbQ


Posted by: cirsium | Mar 5 2023 16:52 utc | 33

Adding to the above thought from Pono.
It Russia can be provoked to hit Germany hard in some way e.g. as retaliation for damages done by Leopard IIs, - that would make it a mission accomplished.

Posted by: Baddy | Mar 5 2023 16:58 utc | 34

All,

Stop smearing shadowbanned . I don’t want to read an echo chamber. I respect the issues he/she makes, even if I’m inclined to disagree with his/her recommendation for a “hurry-up offense”.

Posted by: natokraine | Mar 5 2023 17:08 utc | 35

In reply to mine at post 11
@
Indeed. For which side though?
Let's be realistic, when exactly do you foresee Russian tanks rolling unopposed between Rovno and Khmelnitsky the way the war has been going on so far?

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 5 2023 16:17 utc | 25

I sense you opine Russia is not moving fast enough (avoiding deploying shock and awe) and will be defeated.
May I strongly suggest you offer your services to Nuland, Blinken, Power et al. Or Team Jorge (TJ)-- it appears you are already a member of the TJ board given the time and space you occupy here.

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 5 2023 16:40 utc | 30

I posed a very specific question.

Do you have an answer to it?

This isn't about demanding shock and awe entertainment. The concern is very real and well founded.

Right now there is zero evidence that Russia even plans any large-scale operations, nor is there any intention signaled to mobilize further, while the current numbers are obvious insufficient.

That is a recipe for another series of defeats, just as last year. When they were allowed to happen for the same reasons.

But last year we were under the illusion that a serious war was being fought so it came as a shock. There is no excuse for such naivety this time.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 5 2023 17:09 utc | 36

" “Letter to Russians and Ukrainians,” by assassinated Lugansk militia leader Alexei Mozgovoy. (It’s possible that the “letter” is actually a compilation of diary entries that were compiled after his death.)

Written sometime before May 2015:


Brothers! I see how our enemies, having divided our people, are preparing a big war for us. And my people are not Russian or Ukrainian. My people are one. And I don’t want to know anything else. As a man without an arm or a leg is considered a cripple, so is a divided people.

We Russians, Ukrainians, Belarusians are bequeathed to be together. And the fact that today we are mad and hate each other is the main indictment against us—we have violated this covenant.

What did we lack, brothers? Soil? Look how much land we have. Freedom? So by killing each other we became more free?

I think we just don’t have enough love for our brother. We have forgotten what the sanctity of kinship is. And therefore strangers come to us and become masters of our house. Now these strangers, whom we trusted more than our own people, are urging us on, and under their sly speeches about the greatness of the Russian and Ukrainian people, we are killing each other. […]

This became possible because in 1991 we lost our common homeland—the Soviet Union. Then the enemies destroyed the state, and today they are crushing and playing off its parts. We have nothing left, neither our culture, nor education, nor our mines and factories. But it’s only half the trouble.

The main thing we have lost is our brothers. Now we are easily incited, and we believe that the Ukrainians are the serfs of the West, and the Russians are the aggressors and invaders.

We, the slandered and robbed, have only a common dream—of a just state. Ukrainians dream about great Ukraine, Russians about great Russia. But in essence, this is one big dream of a divided people, yearning for their homeland for 25 years.

We aren’t yearning for the state of oligarchs and traitors—the Moscow and Kiev colonies—but for our united Slavic state. And it doesn’t matter to me what it will be called—Kievan Rus, Muscovite Rus, Novorossia—the main thing is that it will be New Russia, our common home.

In the meantime, we kill each other, and our executioners almost openly push us to kill.

They mock us on Russian and Ukrainian television, either insulting the Ukrainian people and calling them fascists, or insulting the Russian people, calling them occupiers.

From the “objective Russian media” you will not hear words of sympathy for Ukrainians in trouble. They will not say who plunged the whole nation into a spiritual catastrophe. And the Russians themselves no longer hear their brothers. They, like the Ukrainians, were lulled into “patriotic” lies about their own greatness, and kindled petty national pride and arrogance.

The main thing that the media is busy with is preventing the awakening of good feelings between our peoples.

How humiliated we are, brothers, by insulting one another! Are we so blind that we can’t see the real enemies? […] The war will at least open the eyes of our people to who we are and who our enemy is.

I call on my comrades-in-arms, I call on those who are in the ranks today, and future warriors. We could not help it, we had no choice. But you should be wiser than us.

Don’t trust your enemies. Do not trust Moscow and Kiev. Even if they give you the entire Donbass from Slavyansk to Mariupol, even if they give you all of Novorossia, don't believe it! They will turn everything into defeat. Power in Russia and Ukraine is in the same hands. […]

Therefore, I appeal to you, brothers, so that you always see the true enemy and do not raise your hand against each other. "

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Mar 5 2023 17:10 utc | 37

Outraged @ 2 & 32, my 11

There is a power vacuum. No one is in charge. What fills the void is masses of hot air. Recalling Paul Greenwood's briliant remark a couple days ago about Ukraine being an inflatable castle with US pumping the air. Hot air.

This situation cannot last. US can and will prolong the death throes, cannot change the basic situation. When Uke army and gov completely and undeniably collapse RF moves in. No one else is positioned to do anything else. We don't know what RF will do with western Ukraine, it is their choice and no one else's.

Posted by: oldhippie | Mar 5 2023 17:18 utc | 38

Stop smearing shadowbanned . I don’t want to read an echo chamber. I respect the issues he/she makes, even if I’m inclined to disagree with his/her recommendation for a “hurry-up offense”.

Posted by: natokraine | Mar 5 2023 17:08 utc | 36

Nobody wants a "hurry-up offense". We don't want another disaster such as Sumy in March 2022.

Of course it needs to be well prepared.

The problem is that there are no signs it is being prepared or that the necessary resources have been dedicate to the task.

Again, even 500K is not a sufficient force to take over the whole of Ukraine, and some of that has already been attrited, potentially as much as 20%.

Artillery duels over static trenches will take out even more of it. So without further mobilization things will only become ever more hopeless.

On top of that even the existing forces are not doing much right now, while the other side continues escalating. Where does that lead to?

For the umpteenth time, this isn't concern trolling. It would have been called concern trolling last summer too, and we saw what happened. Strelkov has a very good predictive record in this war (he said it isn't going well 2-3 weeks into it, then the Kiev goodwill gesture happened, then in April he said there will be a counteroffensive by the end of the summer unless Russia mobilizes, and we saw what happened), the Martyanovs of the world are the ones that have abysmally failed again and again. That is an objective fact.

Also for the umpteenth time, in the western world there is to this day close to zero understanding how exactly the USSR fell apart -- it was surrendered without a fight from within by traitors -- and how the same traitors still hold very strong positions (which is why Ukraine was allowed to get to this point to begin with). So in Russia there is an overwhelming fear that the country will be betrayed again, and the way the war has been fought so far has done nothing but bolster that fear.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 5 2023 17:20 utc | 39

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 5 2023 14:50 utc | 2

Thanks very much for that number-crunching.

Here’s today’s ‘clobber list’ from https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/[email protected] (Note: this link appears to be providing direct translated updates.)

In Kupyansk direction, the attacks, launched by Army Aviation and the artillery of the 'Zapad' Group of Forces, have resulted in the elimination of up to 40 Ukrainian personnel, one armoured fighting vehicle, as well as three motor vehicles near Gryanikovka and Masyutovka (Kharkov region).

In Krasny Liman direction, the attacks, launched by Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, as well as the artillery and heavy flamethrower systems of the 'Tsentr' Group of Forces, have resulted in the neutralisation of the enemy units near Yampolovka (Donetsk People's Republic), Nevskoye, Chervonopopovka, Chervonaya Dibrova, and Kuzmino (Lugansk People's Republic).

Up to 180 Ukrainian personnel, one infantry fighting vehicle, four armoured fighting vehicles, as well as one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer have been eliminated.

In Donetsk direction, the active action of the 'Yug' Group of Forces, as well as the attacks, launched by aviation and artillery, have resulted in the elimination of over 210 Ukrainian personnel, one infantry fighting vehicle, four armoured fighting vehicles, seven motor vehicles, the U.S.-manufactured M-777 artillery system and M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer, one Tyulpan self-propelled mortar, one fighting vehicle equipped with Smerch multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS), as well as one D-30 howitzer.

The ordnance depots of 53rd and 110th mechanised brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have been destroyed near Tonenkoye and Avdeyevka (Donetsk People's Republic).

One U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-37 counterbattery warfare radar has been destroyed near Nikolayevka (Donetsk People's Republic).

In South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, as well as the artillery of the 'Vostok' Group of Forces have neutralised the AFU units near Ugledar, Novomikhaylovka, Pavlovka, and Shevchenko (Donetsk People's Republic).

The enemy has lost up to 80 Ukrainian personnel, one infantry fighting vehicle, five armoured fighting vehicles, four pickups, as well as one D-20 howitzer.

One U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-37 counterbattery warfare radar has been destroyed near Varvarovka (Zaporozhye region).

One ordnance depot of 110th Territorial Defence Brigade has been destroyed near Novoivanovka (Zaporozhye region).

In Kherson direction, the firepower operation has resulted in the elimination of over 30 Ukrainian personnel, 10 motor vehicles, one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer, as well as the Msta-B and D-30 howitzers.

Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised 83 AFU artillery units at their firing positions, as well as manpower and hardware in 207 areas.

One launching ramp for Ukrainian Buk-M1 air defence missile system has been destroyed near Popov Yar (Donetsk People's Republic).

The Ukrainian unmanned aircraft and electronic warfare command posts have been destroyed near Avdeyevka (Donetsk People's Republic), and Dvurechnaya (Kharkov region).

One command post of the Azov nationalist battalion has been neutralised near Maryevka (Zaporozhye region).

The command and observation posts of the units from 59th Motorised Rifle Brigade of the AFU and 102nd Territorial Defence Brigade have been neutralised near Netaylovo (Donetsk People's Republic) and Uspenovka (Zaporozhye region).

Air defence facilities have shot down one Mi-8 helicopter of Ukrainian Air Force near Dimitrov (Donetsk People's Republic).

Moreover, six rocket-propelled projectiles, launched by HIMARS and Smerch MLRS, have been intercepted, and 12 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been destroyed near Berestovoye (Kharkov region), Pologi (Zaporozhye region), Yelenovka, Kremenets, Spartak, Nikolskoye, Yevgenovka, Ivanovka (Donetsk People's Republic), Kremennaya, Petrovskoye, and Zaliman (Lugansk People's Republic).

In total, 394 airplanes, 216 helicopters, 3,336 unmanned aerial vehicles, 409 air defence missile systems, 8,162 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,050 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 4,282 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 8,746 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed since the beginning of the special military operation.

The losses continue to steadily pile up. Attrition at its finest.

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 5 2023 17:21 utc | 40

> The Red Army needed 3M men to liberate Ukraine back in the days,
> and that was with a much more friendly local population at the time
> (Banderites are 5-10x stronger than they were back then,

> Where does this lead to?

Maybe it leads to a rump Ukraine losing most of its equipment and military-age males to emigration or combat, until the West tires itself out and, at minimum, stops sending new weapons.

IOW, can Russia really defeat NATO without occupying all of Ukraine?

Posted by: natokraine | Mar 5 2023 17:23 utc | 41

" “Letter to Russians and Ukrainians,” by assassinated Lugansk militia leader Alexei Mozgovoy. (It’s possible that the “letter” is actually a compilation of diary entries that were compiled after his death.)

[...]

This became possible because in 1991 we lost our common homeland—the Soviet Union. Then the enemies destroyed the state, and today they are crushing and playing off its parts. We have nothing left, neither our culture, nor education, nor our mines and factories. But it’s only half the trouble.

[...]

We aren’t yearning for the state of oligarchs and traitors—the Moscow and Kiev colonies—but for our united Slavic state. And it doesn’t matter to me what it will be called—Kievan Rus, Muscovite Rus, Novorossia—the main thing is that it will be New Russia, our common home.

[...]

From the “objective Russian media” you will not hear words of sympathy for Ukrainians in trouble. They will not say who plunged the whole nation into a spiritual catastrophe. And the Russians themselves no longer hear their brothers. They, like the Ukrainians, were lulled into “patriotic” lies about their own greatness, and kindled petty national pride and arrogance.

[...]

Don’t trust your enemies. Do not trust Moscow and Kiev. Even if they give you the entire Donbass from Slavyansk to Mariupol, even if they give you all of Novorossia, don't believe it! They will turn everything into defeat. Power in Russia and Ukraine is in the same hands. […]

Therefore, I appeal to you, brothers, so that you always see the true enemy and do not raise your hand against each other. "

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Mar 5 2023 17:10 utc | 38

And this is why he and the rest of the early militia leaders are no longer alive.

Also, notice how by an amazing coincidence Kirill Stremousov died in an "accident" that happened very deep into Russian-controlled territory on the day Kherson was surrendered without a fight. Days earlier he was telling Ukrainians how "we will join the countries back together and we will live again like in the USSR"...

That is exactly what I am talking about and what gets me labeled a "concern troll" by people who have no clue about the more recent history of the region.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 5 2023 17:30 utc | 42

posted by: james | Mar 5 2023 16:12 utc | 21

Hey James, OT, but I think I heard your name mentioned on CBC Radio this morning, along with a song that you wrote "Nanaimo". Congrats on the well deserved fame!!! If only CBC Radio would allow you to voice your geo-political wisdom, in addition to your music...

Posted by: retiredmecheng | Mar 5 2023 17:34 utc | 43

@ shadowbanned 40

"Again, even 500K is not a sufficient force to take over the whole of Ukraine..."

The required number will depend on how thoroughly the Ukie survivors hate their former rulers.

I think that is one more reason why Russia is slow-walking the SMO. All the Nazis need to die and go to Bandera, while all the "undecided" Ukies need to decide for their own good. If I knew more about the covert CIA-USSR war in the Ukraine, 1945-1956, I could provide more insight on how many Russian soldiers will be needed to hold a Ukraine that has less than half the people it once had. Unfortunately, I don't know enough about that covert war, to have any answer.

Posted by: JessDTruth | Mar 5 2023 17:37 utc | 44

@shadowbanned | Mar 5 2023 17:30 utc | 43

Spamming the threads is annoying and leads to ignoring/skipping posts by the spammer. Tone it down and you might get more traction - assuming you have something to add.

Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 5 2023 17:39 utc | 45

Why doesn't Russia mobilize more men? I can think of several reasons.

1. It's too expensive for Russia to pay/outfit another 300,000 men. Perhaps Moscow thinks in terms of timing? "We can wait till October...that way we won't have to pay 300,000 seven months of salary."


2. Another mobilization would put significant political strain on Kremlin. Russia must keep homeland support above 70%.


3. Wait till 2024. Russia wants to keep NATO/USA from escalating. Perhaps the West's Ukraine support will wane by 2024? Maybe America will elect less war hungry President?


4. Maybe Kremlin believes TIME is on their side. And, a 5-10 year war is good for Russia and bad for Russia's enemies. So Russia fights Ukraine in Slow-Motion. Giving up territory at times, yet Kremlin feels assured that they will win LONG-TERM.


5 Putin has Kremlin enemies who feel a poor performance by Russia will end Putin and catapult Putin's rivals into power. So, Putin's rivals undermine the War effort.

I don't know the reason. Please enlighten me.

Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | Mar 5 2023 17:41 utc | 46

I felt, a year ago, that this whole SMO was really double-layered. One layer, the stated layer, was what Putin said, again and again, to keep Ukraine from NATO, to protect the Donbass citizens, to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine. But the second layer, clear to me, has been the much broader movement, with China and the Global South, to somehow create a multipolar world not dominated by neocons and the dollar. The longer this war goes on, the more this second layer solidifies and grows, such that today we see the President of Mexico castigating Biden publicly for hypocrisy and we see all sorts of new trade flows among the Global South. It is no accident, I feel, that Blinken's efforts begging support for the US NATO position have failed again and again at the latest G20 meetings. So in a way the world is turning, month by month, such that Russia may become a remaining Great Power in the 21st century as Russia has land, resources, an educated population, and an industrial base. I know some will argue that population dynamics will defeat Rissia as they may defeat China and other advanced countries (too many old people, too few births) but think that in the immediate period the US NATO will be weakened and the Russia-China-Global South group will rise.

All of this, of course, so long as some trigger happy person doesn't start a nuclear war.

The US in my view, at least the neocon ruling wing of the US, is committed to maintaining worldwide power as it has been since 1990 (If not since 1900). Everything is being thrown in this support. Basically this is globalization under US control. This is why the neocons are building to a confrontation with China.

China. I don't think China is as powerful as people fear, for a couple of reasons. Three reasons, really. One, China does not have much oil, and for the immediate future oil runs the industrial world. Two, China;s development has been based on serving the American and European markets, and as the US and NATO is driven to more domestic manufacturing, and lack of spending money, this will hurt China's growth; that is, if they survive their current housing crisis. And, third, and most important, a recent study (https://xdi.systems/gross-domestic-risk-dataset/?submissionGuid=60861bdf-860b-4159-bd3a-966a7d89650c) argues that immediate climate change will most hinder areas in China, lowland areas which provide food, meaning, China faces an immediate future of food scarcity, floods, lack of oil, and maybe reduced markets. This suggests to me that Russia has a brighter future than China in Eurasia.

But our neocons are hell bent on maintaining world dominance, so hell bent have they been that they have utterly pissed off the nations in our own backyard, Mexico, Peru, you name it. The Monroe Doctrine, first applied to the Americas, has now been applied to the whole world, and it won't work, world-wide. However, that same climate study mentioned above shows that while parts of the US and Central America will suffer (Florida, the Panamanian Isthmus for flooding), in the longer run it is very likely that the Canada-US-Mexico grouping will be just fine - land for growing food, energy, an educated population, resources, isolation from the rest of the world - although the adjustments that will be necessary in lifestyle for its peoples adjusting from a global to a bloc-based economic system will be difficult and may bring everything down.

So - short term I would argue Russia will win, US NATO will continue to be weakened so long as they keep demanding worldwide control, and China and the Global South will make real economic inroads into the neocon globalist system.

But, longer term, even the neocons here will open their eyes and see that with a little adjustment and truth they will be able to maintain their position by changing from a globalist enterprise into a bloc-based self-sufficient autarkical (is this a word?) Americas-based entity which, separated from the Eurasian and African areas by thousands of miles of ocean, will be able to feed themselves, heat themselves, and survive just fine.

This form of North American bloc existence is going to become a rallying cry soon within the political structure, but the question is, who will do this and when?

Posted by: Boomheist | Mar 5 2023 17:46 utc | 47

I second the appreciation for your point of view, @shadowbanned

If people want an echo chamber they can find plenty of those elsewhere.

I wish that Russia would be bolder in going on offense, and not just in Ukraine. Why is Al Tanf still there? It would be a better use case for Kalibr missiles than some Ukrainian power station that can be rebuilt.

Posted by: Chris | Mar 5 2023 17:49 utc | 48

@ Deplorable Commissar 38

Don’t trust your enemies. Do not trust Moscow and Kiev. Even if they give you the entire Donbass from Slavyansk to Mariupol, even if they give you all of Novorossia, don't believe it! They will turn everything into defeat. Power in Russia and Ukraine is in the same hands. […]

Of all the slain heros of Novorossiya, I personally miss Mozgovoy the most. He had very interesting things to say.

We need to put his comments into context, including facts which, for me at least, only became clear years after his murder in May, 2015. I think the comment I quoted above, can be interpreted too broadly and lead to misunderstanding. So here's what you need to consider. Mozgovoy was a dedicated small-c communist who hated the oligarchs and organized crime, which were not quite the same gangs. Mozgovoy and his militia attacked organized crime - drug dealers specifically - so they ambushed him, along with other militia members. I don't recall specifically, because I watched a few hours of him 8 and 9 years ago, but he understood the oligarch system in the Ukraine and how the Tatar oligarch, the only non-Jew oligarch, sucked money and vitality out of Donbass. However, I think the former electrician did not quite realize that Russia was on "Oligarchs 2.0", where they had to respect the authority, the "verticality", of the state. When Mozgovoy talked in generalities, it was mostly as a small-c communist concerned with class struggle.

His death put an end to what should have been a great contribution to the world.

Posted by: JessDTruth | Mar 5 2023 17:59 utc | 49

Dima on Military Summary made an interesting analysis. He says that there are still 12k Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut still. Earlier it was told there are 2-3k. He says it's not only a bad situation but disaster for UAF.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 5 2023 18:00 utc | 50

@Outraged

It is a known fact that Serbia sells weapons to Ukraine indirectly.
It is even better known that Serbian Dictator. A. Vucic recklessly serves his Estern masters.

https://www.dw.com/en/mystery-plane-crash-were-serbian-weapons-headed-for-ukraine/a-62574069

Posted by: Srbin | Mar 5 2023 18:01 utc | 51

If the war stopped tomorrow, the price of oil and other Russian exports would crash along with the ruble.

Russia's oil exporting friends want the war to last as long as possible.

If the sanctions leave the scene, multiples of US energy and military industry exporting companies' stocks would likely crash.

There would be one less distraction for many, which could turn focus inward to find the lies etc... of the last few years become prominent to the point of dramatic pricing shifts when marginal returns are hit by falling demand.

It's Zugzwang for the US and Russia elites to stop fighting, hence the sacrifice of the bottom X% for as long as it takes.

Posted by: Aenbr Nood | Mar 5 2023 18:03 utc | 52

Likklemore @ 30
Nuland thinks she can use her cookie cutter in a slingshot to take down a Kinzhal and defeat Russia. Psychopathy is the apt descriptor.

She will never give up her cookies as she is only interested in Ukrainians dying.

Jen @ 35

That is true. They also enjoy buggery and getting their penises stroked by pretty boys. The pretty boys do not get the same power benefits as the women.

shadowbanned @ 40

All that is interesting perspective but just plain wrong. The concerned trolling angle is a bit overused here. People have different opinions and realities.

The Russians were not ready for NATO trained Ukies to hit the Donbass and they had to urgently move. They are slowly ramping up and will continue to ramp if NATO continues. The fact they backed away from Kherson was based solely on the dam. After they left the Ukrainians quit taking potshots at it.

Next stop is longer range missiles to hit Moscow. Say goodby to some Western cities if it goes there. No more need to ramp up then, it is game over for all of us.

I think you are correct that it was traitors that were bought off by Western politicians that took out Russia. They should have traded the Warsaw pact for NATO and they did nothing of the sort. They could have held the Pact together by brute force of arms.

Martin Armstrong has put together a book called The Plot To Seize Russia from his experience and by gathering primary sources from numerous FOIA document dumps.

Intro

and...

The Plot to Seize Russia and Make It a NATO Vassal

Posted by: circumspect | Mar 5 2023 18:04 utc | 53

Stop smearing shadowbanned . I don’t want to read an echo chamber.

Posted by: natokraine | Mar 5 2023 17:08 utc | 36

Again, even 500K is not a sufficient force to take over the whole of Ukraine, and some of that has already been attrited, potentially as much as 20%.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 5 2023 17:20 utc | 40

I wonder which echo chamber we are talking here...

Posted by: HC | Mar 5 2023 18:07 utc | 54

I wonder which echo chamber we are talking here...

Posted by: HC | Mar 5 2023 18:07 utc | 55

30K KIA + 2-3x WIA gets you what exactly?

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 5 2023 18:09 utc | 55

Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | Mar 5 2023 17:41 utc | 47

If you’re prepared to accept my speculation as answers I’ll give it a go. They‘re certainly more reasonable concerns than the bizarrely-skewed perspectives that @shadowbanned camouflages as objective facts.

1. It's too expensive for Russia to pay/outfit another 300,000 men. Perhaps Moscow thinks in terms of timing? "We can wait till October...that way we won't have to pay 300,000 seven months of salary."

Certainly compared to Western Europe, Russia’s economy seems to be fairly sound and resilient, so I doubt if costs loom too large as a factor.

2. Another mobilization would put significant political strain on Kremlin. Russia must keep homeland support above 70%.

Do they need another mobilisation? And would this jeopardise electoral support? I don’t know the answer to those 2 questions, and I was always told to try not to answer a question with another question so apologies here.

3. Wait till 2024. Russia wants to keep NATO/USA from escalating. Perhaps the West's Ukraine support will wane by 2024? Maybe America will elect less war hungry President?

Could well be a factor, plus I understand Russia is also due elections in 2024.

4. Maybe Kremlin believes TIME is on their side. And, a 5-10 year war is good for Russia and bad for Russia's enemies. So Russia fights Ukraine in Slow-Motion. Giving up territory at times, yet Kremlin feels assured that they will win LONG-TERM.

Time is certainly a factor, and not just on the military front. The more time pressure the Empire comes under, the more it exposes its true hegemonic nature to the rest of the world, aka the Global Majority, and the more open and widespread the resistance becomes.

5 Putin has Kremlin enemies who feel a poor performance by Russia will end Putin and catapult Putin's rivals into power. So, Putin's rivals undermine the War effort.

Who can truly say? My view is that (assuming you’re in a Western country) we probably shouldn’t project too much in the way of Western political machinations onto the Russian polity. I certainly don’t know if political parties in Russia suffer the intrigues and in-fighting of the British Tory party (as an example).

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 5 2023 18:10 utc | 56

@ Srbin 52

Serbian missiles going to the Ukraine ? It has been debunked as an incompetent fake.
The fake documents got the name of the Serbian official wrong etc. Check your sources.
This fraud started on a pro-West site.

Posted by: JessDTruth | Mar 5 2023 18:15 utc | 57

reply to 40 and others

I think the effect of drones is not considered. Blitzkreig or 'hurry up' offensives might be impossible on either side. No surprise. A long painful war of attrition might be the only outcome. We could witness sporadic accelerations and slowdowns according to supplies of shells or missiles showing up.

Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 5 2023 18:16 utc | 58

@shadowbanned"Leave Brittny Alone"


I think he/she/it reminds us that the US has provoked a war between Russians and former Russians in nearRussia. What is not to like from a U S perspective. Cleaving Germany off the Russian oil tit is just a little bonus or "great opportunity" as Blinky puts it. I get the sense that the USA thinks things are going great.

Posted by: KlutchKargo | Mar 5 2023 18:23 utc | 59

circumspect @ 54

Interesting that you brought up the disparity between woman and pretty boys. Among the western elite it seems homosexual favoritism is the subject of much more contempt. I suspect this is because most men in these circles are uncomfortable with seeing their kind reduced to sexual chattel, as it calls into question their own status. Older cultures such as in Iran and Arabia take this to its logical end and simply kill sodomites, but the western power elite have found a discrete use for them.

Posted by: Jen | Mar 5 2023 18:28 utc | 60

@ cirsium | Mar 5 2023 16:52 utc | 33

Indeed. Am aware from first photo published, hence ? RuAF Engels aircrew Tarmac graffiti timed for ISR sat overflight: "ALL Nazi's must Die!".

Cheers.

@ natokraine | Mar 5 2023 17:08 utc | 36 & natokraine | Mar 5 2023 17:23 utc | 42
@ Aenbr Nood | Mar 5 2023 18:03 utc | 53

A pair of Socks.

@ oldhippie | Mar 5 2023 17:18 utc | 39

Concur. However, RF's over-arching primary strategic objective:

Indivisible security treaties & roll back of NATO expansion to '91 borders. Non-negotiable.

@ West of England Andy | Mar 5 2023 17:21 utc | 41

You are most welcome.

Note in this summary & over the last week, even though general perception has been not much seems to be happening (false):

Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised 83 AFU artillery units at their firing positions, as well as manpower and hardware in 207 areas.

Targeted Locs & locales has ranged from ~170 to 207, which compared to previous 2 months, is a week now of increased & sustained OP tempo by ~+55% to ~+88%. Hm ?
Concomitant with RF OPSEC resulting in tightly restricted battlefield reporting during this current OP phase.

Cheers.

@ JessDTruth | Mar 5 2023 17:37 utc | 45

Truth.

The diehard committed Nazi's amount ~5% of the pre SMO population. They rule by imposed fear & community fragmentation through public demonstrations of terror & impunity. Fragile, readily shattered 'control' ...

See: Romanian Revolution, Nicolae Ceaușescu, shock overthrow in virtually a single day, 1989.

@ Srbin | Mar 5 2023 18:01 utc | 52

Mere assertion from you, using DW ? Known fact ? Prove using multiple credible sources. Quote them.

Why not respond to your earlier assertions, hm ?

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 5 2023 18:29 utc | 61

@ Posted by: Outraged | Mar 5 2023 18:29 utc | 62

Asshole.

Posted by: natokraine | Mar 5 2023 18:36 utc | 62

@ circumspect 54

"The fact they [[Russian army] backed away from Kherson was based solely on the dam. After they left the Ukrainians quit taking potshots at it."

That's what I used to think, until I was reminded of the geography of all the rivers in that area. The ones that flow N-S, all have Western banks that sit up much higher. There is always a bluff on the Western banks. THis was a big advantage for the Germans in WW2, advancing and retreating both. Kherson is no exception. The town of Kherson is 30 meters above the river, so it could not be flooded, and that's probably true for the rest of the right bank oblast. The other argument for abandoning Kherson is that logistics across the river would have been an awful mess; not having any experience, I can't say otherwise. At some point, Kherson will have to be retaken, and we can only hope that the UAF is out of business by then.

Two more things to add about Kherson.

1. The Kremlin made the decision to abandon it in August, which is why the referendum on joining Russia was rescheduled to early September, from late October or November. At the time, Moscow had rumblings of "difficult decisions" to make, and we all think Kherson is what they were alluding to.

2. Clearly, Kherson is not on the military road to Odessa because there are a number of smaller rivers that would be difficult to cross with large logistics convoys. More likely, Odessa will be either a sea-borne assault or forces coming from the north.

Posted by: JessDTruth | Mar 5 2023 18:37 utc | 63

30K KIA + 2-3x WIA gets you what exactly?

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 5 2023 18:09 utc | 56

85,000 km² of territory.

A severely-degraded opponent (USNATO), that is scuttling around its basements and broom cupboards looking for penny firecrackers (left over from Nov 5 or New Years festivities) to send to Ukraine.

Increasing restiveness among the Global Majority who are chafing under the yoke of the US$.

Internal pressures, financial and political instabilities building up in the constituent nations of the opponent.

I think that will do for a start...

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 5 2023 18:38 utc | 64

" A similar appeal was written exactly one year ago, on February 25, 2022, by Russian social commentator and reserve colonel Alexander Zhilin:

The events in Ukraine are, of course, very dramatic. I do not quite understand it, and even more so I do not share the euphoria that even the most active propagandists demonstrate, because this is the tragedy of one people. […]

The situation is catastrophic, because it is not clear at all in the name of what the people should smash each other’s skulls.

I have a feeling that the Ukrainians will fight and die for the yachts of the Kolomoiskys, and the Russian guys for the yachts of the Abramovichs.

And this is very sad. "

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Mar 5 2023 18:50 utc | 65

JessDTruth | Mar 5 2023 18:37 utc | 64

Very well written, but I believe everyone is vastly overreaching on Russia's actual war aims.

Their goal was to create a land bridge from Crimea to Russia proper and they have succeeded.

Their next goal is to consolidate control of the newly acquired Russian territories and they are in the process of succeeding. Bahkmut first, then Kramatorsk and ultimately Izyum.

After that I believe it is just a waiting game for the Ukrainian state to collapse. When that happens Russia will impose a protectorate over parts, a nominally independent rump state will emerge in the center and there will be an attempted independence movement in the west.

Posted by: Gustav | Mar 5 2023 19:03 utc | 66

I'll give this place props that it doesn't just spew some party line. But what goes on here is little better. It's mostly war fetish with a reactionary disgust for own culture... "I hate my people but I can't stop living this way". The pathos of counting up the ways to dismember and obliterate others over drinks. No one here will think of standing up for peace or democracy; these ideas being to tainted with disillusionment and projected into drunken armchair quarterbacking.

When people post how happy they are for b's great service I feel humiliation to be reading... But yes at least it's conceivable to think of something beyond the blatent self-serving greed of the msm here. At least there's a chance to consider an alternative.

But who here would like to actually become like a Russian, live as a Russian, hopes for Russia's brave contribution to a more humane world? Just because Putin is not insane doesn't mean you want to live his way. He after all having mastered, internalized and adapted the same oligarchic proclivities of the west under a mantle of Russian nationalism.

What does any of this have to do with creating a better life for anyone?

Listen to this community in its own words:

"BUUURRPP! I hope the shitshow of utter mayhem destruction and death continues well into 2024 —— Bartender!"

Posted by: Arrnon | Mar 5 2023 19:21 utc | 67

" And this is why he and the rest of the early militia leaders are no longer alive.

That is exactly what I am talking about and what gets me labeled a "concern troll" by people who have no clue about the more recent history of the region.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 5 2023 17:30 utc | 43 "


Of course Putin fan boys will say that Ukrainian forces killed them, but logical deduction says otherwise.

I also wouldnt worry to much about those who " label " as they live in a world of unicorns and butterflies and are either incapable of seeing whats going on or too frighted to even address it, hence the need for saviors such as Putin and China.

This " war " is not what it seems.


Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Mar 5 2023 19:24 utc | 68

" Of all the slain heros of Novorossiya, I personally miss Mozgovoy the most. He had very interesting things to say.

We need to put his comments into context, including facts which, for me at least, only became clear years after his murder in May, 2015. I think the comment I quoted above, can be interpreted too broadly and lead to misunderstanding. So here's what you need to consider.

Posted by: JessDTruth | Mar 5 2023 17:59 utc | 50 "


I can read the man's words fine on my own and , although I appreciate your effort, I dont need you to put them into context or interpret their meaning for me. The man's words are clear and his points are obvious.

Additionally, if he was the only one pointing out these things I would give his words less credence, but he's not. Coupled with the strange actions of the SMO it seems there is something devious going on, It should be obvious by now.

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Mar 5 2023 19:32 utc | 69

There cannot be any peace until Russia has won.

NATO and the CIA have a lengthy history of provocation, coups, fomenting violence and violent actors (from any given source available for a paycheck), false flag events/attacks, spying on and infiltrating Quakers and biker gangs, employing flaming bags of cow manure upon doorsteps, whatever it takes.

Russia's gonna have to drive them out of Ukraine.

And keep dissident groups in check, or the same thing will happen again as it does all round the world all the time.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Mar 5 2023 19:35 utc | 70

Posted by: Arrnon | Mar 5 2023 19:21 utc | 68

As some of the chans say, “Lurk Moar!”

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 5 2023 19:35 utc | 71

"A revolt against Zelensky's regime matures in Zaporizhzhya.

Discontent with the Kiev regime is growing in the city of Zaporizhzhya, which remains under the control of Ukrainian troops, Vladimir Rogov, chairman of the "We are together with Russia" movement and a member of the main council of the Zaporizhzhya regional administration, told RIA Novosti.

"Zelensky and his entourage have lost the battle for the souls and minds of Zaporozhye residents. There is a riot and discontent with the Ukrainian occupation regime brewing in the city. "The people of Zaporizhzhya perceive negatively everything Zelensky does and says and are waiting for the soonest possible liberation," he said.

According to the interlocutor of the agency, more and more cases of disobedience to the authorities are also noted in the units of territorial defense, where Zaporozhye residents are forcibly driven.

"Zaporizhzhya territorial defense is the most disobedient. "Even the question of its disbandment was raised, because there were more than a dozen skirmishes with Ukrainian fighters, after which Zaporozhye residents left their positions on the line of contact and went over to our side," Rogov added.

—Vladimir Rogov"

@Slavyangrad


Cracks are appearing. Let's pray that Zelensky won't slaugher the citizens in Zaporizhe.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 5 2023 19:36 utc | 72

@ jpc | Mar 5 2023 16:09 utc | 20

power brokers of the usa seem to like flirting with the idea of having women bimbos in power

The feminist movement goes wrong when it just wants to enter men's business. In the Iroquois matriarchy--and in all others to my knowledge--the inherent difference in gender is shown by the women ruling 'inside' while their chiefs do the work 'outside'.
Think of a workable political system where the women are the equivalent of the House and Senate, or Parliament, and the men are the Executive, perhaps Judicial. Except that only women see the women.

Posted by: Tedder | Mar 5 2023 19:39 utc | 73

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 5 2023 16:26 utc | 27

And if you look closely at the export permit, you can see the inscription in Serbian, which reads: ‘Under the terms of the contract, the items are intended exclusively for the use of the Turkish defense complex.’

Turkey is operating Grad MRL systems? Interesting. Who knew...

Representatives of the Serbian arms factory were forced to deny the rumors: the official statement of Krušik said that the company was in no way connected with the sale of weapons to the end user from Ukraine and found itself at the center of the scandal because of the journalists’ unprofessionalism.

Krušik is not arms but ammunition factory. Arms factory is a different company in another city.

None of the authors were confused by the fact that there is no Minister Vucovic in Serbia. His name is Milos Vucevic, and he did not make such statements.

Vucovic vs Vucevic that looks to me like a typo.
To be really nitpicking his name is neither, but Miloš Vučević (pronounced Milosh Voochevich where the trailing 'ch' is softened)

So yeah, who knows what is going on, but I do not doubt that arms and ammunition made in Serbia will eventually end up on Ukrainian battlefields. Serbia is arms and ammo exporter and once you ship out your stuff it can go anywhere.

Posted by: hopehely | Mar 5 2023 19:45 utc | 74

So what happened to the first shipment of Serbian weapons, airlifted from Greece? The plane crashed. Maybe they put some kind of explosive device with timer or altimeter trigger inside some of the weapon crates.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 5 2023 19:51 utc | 75

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 5 2023 18:09 utc | 56

You and me seem to be in agreement that things arent going well for Russia, despite many here cheering otherwise. The results on the ground are not good, now more than 1 year in. Economically it is going very well and internationally it is not the disaster which could have been. A mixed bag but anyway a strong showing for someone taking on the West in this way, unimaginable just a decade back. Was Trump still in power and had he succeeded to break the progressive postmodern nightmare the West has placed itself into by years of hubris and decadence, Russia would have had no chance.

Militarily they are now well matched by Ukraine+Nato. It has all the hallmarks of a stalemate. I suppose we disagree on this one.

Where we also disagree is what can be done. You seem to imply a more authoritarian approach by Moscow domestically, similar to how Kiev is handling it. I on the other hand think that the risk of internal regime change when bodybags start flowing home by the trainloads is too high for the implied reward.

This equation may change when Ukraine gets bolder in the future with the new weapons escalation of NATO just around the corner. First we had HIMARS wrecking havoc with supply lines and forcing Russia to withraw from Kherson, now with new tanks and even more long range missiles who knows what will happen. I hope they are not asleep at the wheel as they were when Kharkov happened last year.

I also think commenters are a bit unaware of what exactly Russia is doing here and how difficult/ballsy it is to take on the West militarily. The task Russia and the leadership has placed on themselves is enormous and very risky whatever path they choose.

Posted by: alek_a | Mar 5 2023 20:01 utc | 76


@Outraged I am not going to waste time on you, on even responding on your defence of your Dear Leader. Eat your sandwich in peace.

This is a non western source related to Serbia arming Ukraine:
It is in Serbian so you would have to translate:

https://www.magazin-tabloid.com/casopis/index.php?id=06&br=525&cl=14

Here, a part of it:

Please keep your comment short and to the point.


The sequence of events that preceded the crash of the large cargo plane AN-12, with 11.5 tons of shells, shows that Vučić's "dedicated industry" is not only a danger for those who work in it (the number of victims in this business has increased significantly in the last ten years due to poor safety at work, megalomaniacal orders and too short deadlines), but also because of the international status of the state of Serbia (because the Vučić regime does not choose who to sell weapons to and thus exposes the country to dangerous diplomatic conflicts, cooling of relations with potentially important partners, etc.).

Namely, everything that preceded the crash of this, as it turned out, Ukrainian plane, only confirms that the Vučić regime "did business" with the regimes in Ukraine for a long period of time, and that this "business activity" intensified with the arrival of the actor Volodymyr Zelenskiy as president government in Kiev.

Let us remind you that in November 2019, the state company "Krusik" from Valjevo publicly negotiated the sale of weapons to a "partner" from Ukraine. The issue involved large quantities of mines produced in Serbia, which later ended up in the hands of a company from Poland. neo-fascist paramilitaries of Ukraine, the so-called "Azovs", used several times in the war against the Russian population in the east of this country.

Posted by: Srbin | Mar 5 2023 20:06 utc | 77

There is a big misunderstanding of the war in Ukraine. That is the Russians are fighting not only the Ukrainians but the entire US and NATO backgound organisation. Satellites, spylink, warts, grunts and all.

This article by Simplicius clearly shows what the Russian are up against. When literally everything on the battelfield is known and followed in real time by squadrons of "analysts". Orders given, or worse, real time drone images sent to artillery who can correct their fire "on the spot". etc.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/usnato-isr-addendum-deep-dive-into?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=106245300&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

That the Russians are NOT losing is tribute to their own EW counter-measures.
However, ALL of Russia is being surveilled. (This included the use by the Americans of the now defunct START treaty to identify all Russian Nuclear assets. That is why the Russian stopped their participation.) Down to the smallest unit and even the ammunition boxes and what they contain. INCLUDING estimates of probable reactions/attacks, (crossing rivers etc.) which allow ambushes to be prepared.

The SMO is also a normal reaction to the changing conditions on the battlefield. An overall frontal "attack" would be near suicide, which is why those of allegiance to the US are pushing for "speeding up" the Russian effort. Just before the Russians work out how to take out things flying overhead in space. (Side note; the Russian jamming efforts are good and pose problems for the USNATO)
***

Why are the US doing this? Not only to support "Ukraine" until they become extinct, but to use the opportunity to use and improve military systems in real battlefield conditions, in order to attack China later. (The mercenaries will ultimately be recycled into Asia-Pacific to hold Blinkens hand?)
****

The result is that Ukraine will collapse sooner or later from deaths, corruption, lack of support by Europe (I take NATO as an arm of the US using EU serfs as second tier cannon fodder), or simply being overtaken by new objectives of the US (Neocons among others) as they start on China.
****

When will the US collapse (and the European construction)? Through Financial AHAB's ("American Hot Air Balloons" such as debts, fed printing and derivative speculation), or infrastructure and commodity chaos (lack of). Date unknown but with the trillions involved it is possibly a good time to invest in wheelbarrows or low-loaders to carry the cash to buy a coffee in the morning.

Posted by: Stonebird | Mar 5 2023 20:13 utc | 78

In the same time A. Vucic played Putin's friend because most of the population is still pro-Russian.

Posted by: Srbin | Mar 5 2023 15:36 utc | 13

When I found many neolibreals praising him, I smelled something wrong.

Posted by: Colin | Mar 5 2023 20:17 utc | 79

Posted by: Tedder | Mar 5 2023 19:39 utc | 74

In the North East of England the miners would give their wives their pay packet, and after she had made all the household deductions, for the coming week, they’d be given an allowance.

Feminism, in the West, has been co-opted into a movement that seeks to destroy the very idea of being a women, alas, the traditional feminists realised the danger too late. Similarly the Green movement has just become a useful mask for the haters of humanity to wear, when their preaching their techno-feudal Great Reset.

Posted by: Milites | Mar 5 2023 20:18 utc | 80

Watched some drone footage from the west side of Bakhmut, concerning retreating AFU. The action there looks pretty similar as the AFU attacks on Kherson in August-September 2022, which were mostly wrecked. A lot of bodies and armored vehicles on the fields, which are under small arms and artillery fire from 2 or 3 sides.

https://t.me/azmilitary11/39962

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 5 2023 20:21 utc | 81

Russia's severe lack of military spending is the fundamental problem. The reality is Russia $20b vs Ukraine $100b+

Without economic mobilization, it is impossible to pay for an adequate military, and the oligarchs do not want economic mobilization.

A centrally planned economy rather than a neoliberal market economy is the economic system that best mobilizes the economy.

The closest thing in history to the dream of a "Slavic Union" was the Soviet Union.

The inability to accept communism led to the inability of people to make rational judgments.

Posted by: Colin | Mar 5 2023 20:24 utc | 82

Posted by: infoshark | Mar 5 2023 14:51 utc | 3

I already expressed this idea here.

Confidence of Russian leadership could only be explained by the possession of some means to defeat all NATO SSBNs in one strike (as well as sinking all 14 NATO CSG at the same time with hypersonics).

Talk about strategic dominance...

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Mar 5 2023 20:27 utc | 83

[sigh]

It seems @shadowbanned has retired hurt and the substitutes have been sent onto the pitch! Has the 77th Brigade offered enhanced rates of Sunday overtime or something?

~~~

Posted by: alek_a | Mar 5 2023 20:01 utc | 77

things arent going well for Russia

The results on the ground are not good, now more than 1 year in.

Compared to whose benchmarks?

Was Trump still in power

Irrelevant, and a crude attempt at thread derailment.

Militarily they are now well matched by Ukraine+Nato

You are kidding,right?

I on the other hand think that the risk of internal regime change when bodybags start flowing home by the trainloads is too high for the implied reward.

Bodybags too scary, huh? Remind me how long the Siege of Leningrad lasted?

[sigh]

So much more assumption, opinion, misconception and delusion dressed up as ‘objective fact’ I really can’t be bothered, except to say all this carp is objectively easy to refute, if you broaden your sources and your perspective.

Are trolls objectively narrow-minded?

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 5 2023 20:28 utc | 84

I’m having a hard time understanding some of the more critical commentary on this thread w.r.t. to the Russian SMO, e.g.

But who here would like to actually become like a Russian, live as a Russian, hopes for Russia's brave contribution to a more humane world

Talk about projection! When has Russian leadership (Putin included) ever stated that their goal was to reshape the world in the image of Russia. In fact they state the very opposite and emphasize indivisible sovereignty, and the unique cultural heritage of each nation colored by their own history. It is knowledge of history that is so lacking by so many people in the so-called West. And if Russia is able to break the back of the Empire of Lies then it has done an indispensable service to the betterment of humanity.

Regarding the immediate humanitarian ramifications of the SMO, it is indeed tragic, with so much death and destruction, but what alternative did the Russian authorities have to avoid it? The West is clearly agreement incapable as the recent revelations regarding the Minsk agreements so amply demonstrate. And it was the West that fostered the rise of the Banderites by fueling the Maidan coup, which in turn led to the physical and psychological siege of the ethnic Russian population in the Ukraine.

Posted by: Akash | Mar 5 2023 20:31 utc | 85

@ shadowbanned | Mar 5 2023 16:13 utc | 22

'...this isn't remotely sufficient for the kind of major offensive operations that are needed. The Red Army needed 3M men to liberate Ukraine back in the days ...'

There has been some discussion about a major offensive, either in these pages or in a pointer to another web site.

I think we can agree that the large casualty numbers satisfy one of Putin' objectives, demilitarization, at least of people, while a lot of equipment is being backfilled by NATO, heterogeneous as it might be. Some, a good deal(?) of denazification has also been accomplished.

Large arrows bring large counter arrows, perhaps a reason for small steps. The small steps seem to be causing slow progress, I imagine by intention. Land warfare in the wide open is difficult with all the eyes in the sky and certainly will cause casualties the Russians are trying to avoid. Hence small scale warfare by both sides.

The wunderwaffe pipeline is being filled by mostly the US. It seems to experience delivery issues to the front.

In the meantime, shadowbanned could be right or wrong. I do not see the benefit of a major offensive. The Ukies are experiencing a serious shortage of personnel, ordnance and tubes. NATO troops on the ground are a possibility, but are they likely?

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 5 2023 20:33 utc | 86

" The closest thing in history to the dream of a "Slavic Union" was the Soviet Union.

The inability to accept communism led to the inability of people to make rational judgments.

Posted by: Colin | Mar 5 2023 20:24 utc | 83 "


A Slavic union with millions of people from the various 'stans ? Secondly, have you ever ever lived in a true Communist nation ? I doubt it, yet you chose to make a statement like the one above. SMH.

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Mar 5 2023 20:34 utc | 87

...that the USA thinks things are going great.

Posted by: KlutchKargo | Mar 5 2023 18:23 utc | 60

---

One can only hope Washington thinks things are going great. :)

Posted by: Nobody | Mar 5 2023 20:35 utc | 88

" I also think commenters are a bit unaware of what exactly Russia is doing here and how difficult/ballsy it is to take on the West militarily. The task Russia and the leadership has placed on themselves is enormous and very risky whatever path they choose.

Posted by: alek_a | Mar 5 2023 20:01 utc | 77 "


Its just as " ballsy " for Russia to take on the ZioWest as it is for the ZioWest to take on Russia ( and possibly China at the same time ) wouldnt you agree ?

Russia is the dominant nuclear power after all and based on the prevalent opinions here NATO is trash, the US is collapsing financially, and Western societies are turning into LGBT bath houses. So what has Russia and China to fear ? A nuclear exchange ? If so, why doesn't the ZioWest seem to fear that, and if they do, why doesnt Russia act like it and call there bluff ?

Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Mar 5 2023 20:44 utc | 89

The name of Russian journalist Alexander Kots from Komsomolskaya Pravda has been added to the Western sanctions list. Today he reports about his visit to Artemovsk/Bakhmut. There are still many civilians hiding there. https://www.kp.ru/daily/27473.5/4729512/

The first report from inside Bakhmut - people here are really happy with our troops! Baptize, kiss the fighters
KP.RU military correspondent Alexander Kots transmits from the epicenter of the hottest point of the Special Operation now - from the "Artyomovskaya meat grinder"

IN CHECHNYA TAKEN BAMUT. HERE - BAKHMUT
- You have a very accurate call sign, Gepard, - trying to regain my breath, I pay a compliment to the Wagner PMC fighter. - Don't get carried away.

- I have been fighting since 1994. Bamut also took in Chechnya.

- How old are you?

- 46.

- Here you have dropped my self-esteem now, - we laugh together.

Behind him is a forced march in complete darkness over rough terrain to the front line of the battle for Artemovsk (Bakhmut). The day before, I stopped by the “musicians” at the control post and asked for an exit to the eastern part of the city, which is already completely controlled by our forces. Delivery groups go there every day. However, the word "delivery" is nominal here, on wheels you overcome only a small part of the path. The main one has to be overcome on foot - with ammunition, food, water, several kilometers in one direction. And in the opposite direction - with the wounded or dead. Moreover, the evacuation is no less dangerous than during the battle. Therefore, it is difficult to reproach carriers for the fact that they perform purely rear functions.

"ZAHISTNIKOV" BEFORE THE FIGHT SHUT UP
Together with the guys from the detachment of the legendary commander "Ratibor" (Hero of Russia, holder of the orders of Courage and the Red Star), we move towards Artemovsk. Part of the way passes along the highway leading to Slavyansk. In 2014, I drove along it in a rental car with Kyiv numbers. Now the route, of course, is unrecognizable. In the middle of the road - Ukrainian checkpoints and military equipment destroyed by artillery, trees torn to pieces by billions of fragments, the fields around are dotted with craters from explosions, tails of rockets and the bodies of the Ukrainian military ...

“Before going on a task, they are injected with some kind of drug, they don’t feel pain or fear, they don’t sleep for several days, they smile when a limb is torn off from the explosion,” says the company Atlas.

To be honest, I have always been skeptical about these drug stories, considering them more front-line stories than fact. However, a few minutes before this conversation, “Ratibor” showed me on the phone an ampoule that was taken from a prisoner who told about these pharmaceutical experiments. The "potion" was sent to Moscow for examination in order to understand what was being injected to the "defenders" of Bakhmut.

- Many civilians were taken out of the city? I ask Atlas.

So many. Almost across the house. They used to gather in basements as families. There was even a pregnant woman, old people, children. We don’t take them out for the light, we wait for a lull, monitor the whole situation and lead them to evacuation in small groups, we take them out by car from there. People are really glad to see us, christening us, kissing us… We find mobile phones, we think that the enemy’s devices, we read the correspondence, and there: “Khokhols arrived on tanks. Khokhols occupied the neighboring house”… Without respect for their “defenders”, one can immediately see who they consider their own. There, by the way, Artemovsk is smoky ahead, now we will go down into it.

RETREAT, RUN IN THE FIELDS
We dismount and walk along a narrow, iron-cut forest belt towards Bakhmut. Rumbles all around, without ceasing, but the gaps are far away, closer to the city center. Suddenly one mine falls ahead in our landing, then in the next, then in the field on the left. And about a dozen gaps in the eastern part of Artemovsk, where we were heading.

- Sketched, - states "Atlas". - Let's go back, let's go in the dark.

And we return to the near rear to the control post. All night listening to the talks on the radio. There are reports that the enemy is withdrawing its forces towards Konstantinovka - 5-7 vehicles with an interval of 20-30 minutes. Information is immediately transmitted to artillery, which generously pours in the direction of the columns. Someone manages to get away, someone remains on fire in the middle of the road. In a day, Kyiv loses up to 500 people killed and wounded here.

Last week, the operational encirclement of Artemovsk was formalized. The enemy had one supply road left, and that one was under our fire control. So Kyiv began to withdraw part of the units from the city. In fact, today the "musicians" control the entire eastern and northern parts of the city, as well as part of the south.

I WENT TO THE NEIGHBORHOOD TO SHOOTING A CIGARETTE… I WAS CAPTIVED
- It is felt that recently the motivation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been falling, in places they lose control, they do not understand what is happening from right to left, - Ratibor tells me. - Someone resists to the last, someone, realizing that they are already practically surrounded, tries to run through the fields ...

At the same time, in other positions it comes to the ridiculous (if, of course, you know how to distinguish between harsh front-line humor and soulless cynicism. The other day a fighter came to our positions to shoot a cigarette. He was no different from the Wagnerites, treated himself, lit a cigarette ... And then the enemy rolled over. Everyone rushed to repel the attack, and the guest also grabbed the machine gun, pointing it at the "enemies". Managed to destroy seven attackers. After the heat of battle, they sat down to fill the magazines with cartridges, and then our hero suddenly realized that he had gone into the wrong trench. And he repulsed the attack not "orcs-Muscovites", but their brothers. The fighter of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was praised and even promised to be presented for a reward for such performance. And sent to the rest of the prisoners.

CAUSE FIRE ON YOURSELF
At about five in the morning we make a second attempt. The car rides on muddy dimensions, the driver leads literally to the touch. We get out a few kilometers to the destination and go in almost complete darkness. The sky is lined with powder charges of mines and tracers, in the direction of Artemovsk, flashes are lit every few seconds, followed by rolling explosions. Persistent bursts of heavy machine guns are heard. Ahead is a fighter with the call sign "Cheetah". Behind him are Chechnya, and the Central African Republic, and Libya ...

“This is the first time I’ve encountered such fights,” he admits. - Very tough. First of all - because of the intensive artillery. If not for her, we would have ended this conflict long ago. But victory will still be ours. This is our land. We won one war for it, and we will win now. Yes, they are being helped, but the enemy leaves it to us when he gives up his positions. We use Western weapons against them.

We go in zigzags, then resting on the very front edge, where you need to move quickly, then moving away a couple of hundred meters from it. By dawn we go to the school, which Atlas once took. It was occupied by the enemy.

- There were Nazis, foreign mercenaries, two blacks. We secretly climbed into the basement and spent half the night correcting the fire of tanks on enemy firing points on the first and second floors. That is, they almost caused fire almost on themselves. At dawn, another group of us jumped in, and the assault began. They clamped the villains on the second and third floors and destroyed them.

SOON WE WILL DOWN
The battle was not over yet, and the Ukrainian artillery was already attacking the school. The bodies of the Kyiv National Guardsmen are still lying in it. Together with the "Cheetah" we go along the broken corridors. He shows how a machine gunner fired at them from a neighboring hut, how they simultaneously suppressed both him and those who sat upstairs. The third floor offers a view of the high-rise buildings of Artemovsk. She's all in smoke.

“We have a spirit,” Atlas assures. - Ammunition too. So soon we will squeeze and physically close the ring. Everyone wants to eat, drink - too, cartridges are again needed. They give up, they're not going anywhere. In captivity, no one will offend them, raise your hands and come, everything will be fine with you.

AUTHORITATIVELY

Hero of Russia "Lotus":

We control 40 percent of Bakhmut

One of the commanders of PMC "Wagner" commented on the situation on the front line to the KP.RU military commissar

- The enemy grouping is in operational encirclement, all roads are under fire control, but not under physical control. It remains to take the settlement of Khromovo, through which the main supply line passes, and cut the field roads to Ivanovsky. Now we control about 40 percent of the city. Combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are being withdrawn to occupy the second line of defense along the Konstantinovka-Kramatorsk-Slavyansk line. Terodefense units and, according to our information, the Georgian Legion remain in Bakhmut. The total number is up to 12 thousand people. The enemy is constantly bringing up reserves to hold the corridor from Artemovsk so that we cannot close our pincers. A week ago, the Ukrainians blew up the dam of the Northern Headquarters, with artillery fire made a breach in another dam - the Berkhovsky reservoir. The flooding of the Berkhovka area began, the southern part of Paraskovievka and the southern part of the Red Mountain. In this way, they are trying to slow down the pace of our offensive, weaken the dynamics of the fighting and be able to pull up reserves and manage to gain a foothold. The enemy is also undermining bridges to prevent us from quickly crossing and entering the central part of Bakhmut.

Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Mar 5 2023 20:51 utc | 90

To those wondering if VVP is still beholden to oligarchs - I guess it's possible. It was a long, slow task, wresting power from them, and my understanding as an outside observer is that ten years or more ago, the deal was that the remaining oligarchs could continue getting filthy rich providing they did not act against Russian national interests, and VVP would define what those interests were.

OTOH his recent remarks that those who cared more about their bank accounts than about Russia could stay out and none would weep for them sounds like he's comfortably in power. I would watch them like hawks though.

Given the oligarch dominance in 1990s Russia, it’s a miracle he survived, and it was only because the oligarchs thought he was their man. Those years when he was slowly and cautiously wresting power from them, boiling the oligarch frog… my impression is that he still isn’t in total control but has a modus vivendi with the surviving oligarchs. The war may have strengthened his position as a fair few ran off to Israel.

“Putin inherited a ransacked and bewildered country, with a poor and demoralized people,” Solzhenitsyn told the German magazine Der Spiegel in a 2007 interview, when Putin was still president. “And he started to do what was possible, a slow and gradual restoration. These efforts were not noticed, nor appreciated, immediately. In any case, one is hard-pressed to find examples in history when steps by one country to restore its strength were met favorably by other governments.”

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Mar 5 2023 20:51 utc | 91

Seems like Iranian drones turned the tide of the war, no wonder the US is terrified of China providing Russia drones.

Seems like the composite shahids are almost invisible to the vast Western C4ISR complex.

It’s quite amazing, small mobile groups can mimick a complex worth billions. Observation and hitting targets outside the range of artillery is invaluable in a zone of heavily saturated air defences.

It will be interesting to see the Russian iterations down the track once production and development is sorted out.

Posted by: Johnycomelately | Mar 5 2023 20:58 utc | 92

With regards to the criticism of the handling/execution of the SMO on the part of the Russian authorities, I notice no one brings up the fact that the number of civilian casualties relative to actual military casualties is so low, with most of the former coming from the indiscriminate and/or targeted strikes (using US/NATO HIMARs) against the hapless civilians of Donetsk by the AFU, which for all practical purposes constitutes a terrorist campaign. This fact should be lauded by the critical commentators here. But instead is taken as weakness and a Shock and Awe approach so beloved by the West is vehemently advocated.

Regarding the lack of big arrow offensives, Simplicius the Thinker (on Substack) has insightfully written about the NATO C4ISR that the Russian military has to contend with. This ‘All seeing eye of Sauron’ is indeed a formidable deterrent to maneuver warfare. Moreover the Russians are being very parsimonious with regards to their soldiers’ lives, and rightfully so IMO.

The attritional warfare approach has paid dividends in that it has destroyed the largest army in Europe (excluding Turkiye and Russia from Europe), and required NATO to pump 10s of billions of $ of weapons into the conflict to shore up the AFU, not to mention actual personnel. But the most pregnant effects of the SMO are economic, and it is those economic effects that will lead to the end to this conflict IMO.

Posted by: Akash | Mar 5 2023 21:03 utc | 93

immediate climate change
Posted by: Boomheist | Mar 5 2023 17:46 utc | 48

That's known as weather isn't it?

Posted by: GT Stroller | Mar 5 2023 21:06 utc | 94

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 5 2023 16:26 utc | 27

thanks. i have to remember they will do anything to get vucevic out.

i hope he stays strong.

Posted by: polarbear4 | Mar 5 2023 21:06 utc | 95

@ jpc | Mar 5 2023 16:17 utc | 24

Sam Powers at least was as a journalist in Jugoslavia in the 90’s.
She probably saw war, or at least its aftermath. I am to lazy to to look up her work from back than but i know she was there. So i dont really think its as abstract for her compared to Vik Nuland. Yet they arrived at the exact same conclussions.

Sam Powers is, to me , one of the most facinating creatures of the empire. She 100% belives what she is saying. The whole dellusional range of empire talking points. She still is a idealist. Compared to Nuland, she apears to be not even cynical or corrupt. In this sens she is the epitome of the “banality of evil”. One of the most interesting questions in reagard to the “psychology of power”, remains to be the diffrence between the faithfull idealist (Powers) vs. the cynical burocrats (Nuland). I never was able to decide which of those bothe archetypes scares me more. Idealism vs. efficancy.

Posted by: El Lissitzky | Mar 5 2023 21:12 utc | 96

Anatoli Shariy has a nice video on the Ukrainian scandals about food procurement for the military. English subtitles. Very sharp (and funny).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nP5gwO1fSzk

Posted by: Susan Welsh | Mar 5 2023 21:13 utc | 97

@ JessDTruth | Mar 5 2023 18:37 utc | 64

As per 'Gustav | Mar 5 2023 19:03 utc | 67', the OP phase objective was:

Their goal was to create a land bridge from Crimea to Russia proper and they have succeeded.

By accidental opportunistic circumstance as the AFU fled in disorder in early '22, ~10K+ RF troops, arms & materiel, 1,000s of civilians at risk, ended up on the opposite bank in an under threat broad shallow bridgehead with vulnerable, damaged & limited MSRs over the river, limited crossings being under constant AFU barrage & rocket attacks. Serving nil Strategic nor Operational purpose.

At risk of being unable to retreat/withdraw if seriously threatened on a N>S axis concurrent with flooded high flow river crossings re dam destruction(crossings washed away ?). Or forced to attempt to do so whilst in contact & engaged, over damaged(remaining) and contested river crossings under fire, after having their logistical supply train severed via Fire Control ... massed crossings under fire over fixed narrow choke points is never a desirable scenario.

Cheers.

@ Oblomovka daydream | Mar 5 2023 20:51 utc | 91

Thank you kindly. Cheers.

@ Akash | Mar 5 2023 21:03 utc | 94

Bravo. Cheers & Prost!

@ polarbear4 | Mar 5 2023 21:06 utc | 96

Agreed. Empire is on the prowl re Serbia. You are most welcome. Triggered a pair to out themselves. :)

Peace

@ Susan Welsh | Mar 5 2023 21:13 utc | 98

Sweet. Thank you kindly.

@ natokraine | Mar 5 2023 18:36 utc | 63

Thank you so much for your succinct response & self discipline in exercising restraint re word count. Anything else ?

@ Deplorable Commissar | Mar 5 2023 18:50 utc | 66 & 69 & the rest ...

Indivisible security treaties & roll back of NATO expansion to '91 borders. Non-negotiable.

See: Comment to Arrnon below.

@ hopehely | Mar 5 2023 19:45 utc | 75

Highly selective irrelevant quotes & deflecting misrepresentations ...

'... he did not make such statements.'

"... the document contains a code that corresponds to the export of flour to Montenegro.'

The legal address of the office in Belgrade is unheard of, and the person in whose name it is registered died back in 2021.

Comprehension ? Literate ?

Oh Turkey does indeed operate MBRLS, indigenous designed systems, the T-122 Sakarya, and it can use Grad rocket ammunition. Fancy that, heh ?

Do you have any credible evidence at all, of your assertions & personal opinion to the contrary ? Link & quote them. Or perhaps you should follow on behind ... Arrnon below.

@ Arrnon | Mar 5 2023 19:21 utc | 68

So very sorry to see that you've wandered into the wrong Bar & Topic Thread. Be careful not to let the door hit you on your way out. Cheers.

@ Srbin | Mar 5 2023 20:06 utc | 78

I am not going to waste time on you, on even responding on your defence of your Dear Leader

Yet you did, oh thank you, thank you so very much. Not my leader, Dear or otherwise. Your link is entirely irrelevant to my post, the subject matter & the source is unassessable(sic). Your comment is entirely irrelevant, and also in regard to my reply to you. :(

Fail: 0/10.

@ Colin | Mar 5 2023 20:24 utc | 83 & the rest ...

Wrong. Sigh ...

RF increased arms/armaments/ammunition production by 50% Jul'22 & by ~88% Nov'22. 3 x 8 hour shifts 7 days a week and a fourth concurrent 12 hour shift 5 days a week. Created a high level MIC oversight control commission, initiated in a Wartime Subset economy. No shortage of raw materials nor input products. Workers are receiving bonus subsidies/benefits & buku overtime paychecks. Paid for in it's own currency Rubles. $20Billion ? Ever heard of PPP ? Real industrial capacity as opposed to fictional/fictionalized ... overseas production ?

Banderastan's $100B USD ? Hahaha, now that is funny. Bravo :)

Merely misunderstood, amateurish satire ?

See: @ Susan Welsh | Mar 5 2023 21:13 utc | 98

Oh my Dog ... lotsa low grade trolls today, spamming the thread 'cause they got sweet FA else ...

Posted by: Outraged | Mar 5 2023 21:15 utc | 98

Ukraine mobilisation update, posted by @skadefron today on Twitter:

Ukraine's Cherkasy, military registration and enlistment offices posted notices with following text:
"March 30, all who already been summoned and passed commission must appear.
By April 15, all those who not passed commission or have not received summons must appear"

https://twitter.com/skadefron/status/1632484434338365447

Posted by: Irish | Mar 5 2023 21:16 utc | 99

too 75 and 76 about serbian weapons

https://obektivno.bg/sarbiya-tajno-ot-rusiya-vaorazhava-s-raketi-ukrainskata-armiya-dokumenti/

Posted by: Paul | Mar 5 2023 21:24 utc | 100

next page »

The comments to this entry are closed.