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March 2, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-52
Comments
@ Paul McGrory 118
Your mention of Habermas and Yugoslavia reminded me of articles by Theirry Myessan , Voltairenet about Volker Perthes who demanded the complete capitulation of Assad’s forces before any stability would be allowed to return to Syria.
Theresa May’s naval attack on Damascus was defeated by Russian made anti missile defences and the humiliated UK gave up its attack on Syria, while urinating Novichok on a Russian lamp post.
Maybe the experience of its own total capitulation gave German philosophers like Habermas food for thought. Right now it looks as though Germany is headed for a unconditional surrender repeat. Being a friend of the US is more dangerous than being an enemy of the US since Mafia US always regards its friends as total idiots.
Posted by: Giyane | Mar 3 2023 16:25 utc | 201
This “Statement by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the G20 Ministerial Council plenary session on counter-terrorism, digital transformation, humanitarian assistance and disaster risk reduction” that was held today in New Delhi was certainly influenced by the situation in Ukraine and is highly accusatory of NATO/West/Outlaw US Empire:
Dear colleagues,
The world economy today faces an interweaving of major challenges. Many of them are geopolitical in nature or exacerbated by international confrontation. This, in particular, concerns the acute topics raised by the Indian presidency: terrorism, drug crime, natural disasters. Appropriate responses to these dangerous phenomena should be developed through specialized formats, primarily in the UN.
The surge in terrorism is largely provoked by the external interference of the West in the internal affairs of sovereign states. The victims of armed adventures and neo-colonial claims were Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Afghanistan. The results are the undermining of statehood, the rampant terrorist groups, the growth of the drug threat, the impoverishment of the population, the degradation of human rights. The dangerous instability in the Middle East is also fuelled by the lack of any progress in resolving the Palestinian problem.
The destruction of Libya provoked a sharp aggravation of the terrorist threat in Africa, especially in the Sahara-Sahel region.
A new hotbed of extremism has been fanning in Ukraine since 2014. There is an unrestrained pumping of weapons into the Kiev regime, nationalist battalions covered from head to toe covered with Nazi emblems and tattoos are openly supported, and mercenaries from NATO countries and international terrorists have been recruited. The facts of the flow of lethal weapons from Ukraine to “hot spots” abroad are noted.
Today we have already talked about the sabotage committed in the NATO area of responsibility off the eu coast with the undermining of the Nord Stream gas pipelines. It is significant that this terrorist attack occurred shortly after the joint military exercises of the NATO coalition with the involvement of US naval forces. We insist on an open and impartial investigation, including a thorough verification of information about the involvement of us government agencies and other Western countries in it.
The West is destroying the unity of the global counter-terrorism front. The latest example is the hostile actions to restrict Russia’s rights in the FATF, which is essentially akin to condoning international terrorism. We are convinced that the anti-terrorist response requires the rejection of “double standards” and “hidden agendas”. The suppression of this unconditional evil cannot be made hostage to opportunistic considerations and bloc approaches.
In the wake of the recent devastating earthquakes, Turkey and Syria have received immediate support from civil defence forces and humanitarian supplies. In recent years, Russia has assisted more than 110 countries in overcoming the consequences of natural disasters, primarily in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. We have also provided more than $270 million for this purpose and for the implementation of reconstruction projects. through international humanitarian structures.
Significant risks are created in the course of the rapid progress of information and communication technologies, which is gaining momentum of digital transformation. Russia was the first in the world to raise the issue of developing an international convention against cybercrime at the UN. In 2019, on our initiative – in co-authorship with another 47 states – a RESOLUTION of the UN General Assembly was adopted on the beginning of the relevant negotiation process, which entered the practical phase. We proceed from the premise that the draft convention will be submitted to the UN General Assembly for consideration during its 78th session.
Speaking about the UN, we reaffirm our position in favour of reforming the Security Council by increasing the representation of developing countries. For many years, we have expressed our support for the candidacies of Brazil and India, while at the same time satisfying the interests of the African continent. As for the West and its allies, they now occupy 6 out of 15 seats in the Security Council. There is no doubt that this is more than enough.
In general, there is no doubt that all multilateral institutions are being tested for compliance with the new geopolitical realities. This applies to both the UN and the G20. Their relevance will be confirmed by those structures that are able to be platforms for agreeing on the balance of interests of states, and not for attempts to justify someone’s claims to hegemony. [My Emphasis]
Lavrov’s words will be heard in RoW but deleted by the West which will continue its criminal behavior as it seems to know no other.
It seems that many rent-free people believe that unipolarity does best bring negative peace, but in reality it is only an ideological construct that serves American hegemony after the Cold War.
During the Cold War, the most popular opinion was that bipolarity was most conducive to peace. Prior to World War I, the most popular opinion was that multipolarity was most conducive to peace.
Obviously, this is all just a rationalization of the system at the time, so it is not evidence.
Posted by: Colin | Mar 3 2023 16:07 utc | 199
In retrospect, those responsible for the collapse of the USSR not only removed the only path towards a bright future the species ever had from the available options for future development, but they also put us on the path towards nuclear annihilation.
Which, given what was commonly understood about great power dynamics at the time, should have been obvious to them.
Once there was no more USSR, the USA would have felt free not only to go on a rampage against various Third world countries, which it generally avoided outside the Western hemisphere aside from Vietnam and Korea, as it was held in check by the USSR, but eventually it would lose touch with reality, drunk on its unipolar dominance, to such an extent that it would go after Russia directly.
Which is precisely what happened — the first thing the US did after the end of the Cold War was to invade Iraq, the second was to dismember Yugoslavia, the third to start enlarging NATO, and there is no need to review everything else that happened after that.
Again, should have been obvious it was going to go that way from the start. And it was indeed obvious to a quite a few, but the bastards that set up the implosion of the USSR were so driven by greed that they either didn’t see where this leads, or just didn’t care — their minds were occupied with dreams about limousines, mansions and yachts.
We do deserve what is coming our way as a species, unfortunately…
Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 3 2023 16:28 utc | 203
“…the new president of Brazil is a useful idiot played by the CIA, the Democratic Party, and the corrupt Brazilian oligarchy itself. Despite all appearances, and much to my educated predictions about Brazil, Lula is trapped into pleasing Washington….” Ajax@193
At risk of being offensive, yours is a conspiracy theory.
What it lacks is a recognition of the most important force involved-not the US government, not the Brazilian oligarchy, including the Generals and the Judiciary, not the commitment, zeal or honesty of Lula and his advisors, but the people of Brazil.
If Lula is put under pressure by the poor, if the strength of the landless and the unemployed grows as they become more organised and political, he will be forced to take the socialist measures Brazil needs.
The importance of Lula is that he knows what the people need, so that if given their backing and support he will be able to play his, rather minor, role.
If he is not out under pressure. If the people do not organise. If they are not ready to strike and struggle, if need be to fight and die, then what you predict will transpire.
Such is the nature of politics- men like Lula are merely vessels in which the aspirations and force of the people are represented. The same was true of Allende.
Posted by: bevin | Mar 3 2023 16:29 utc | 204
In addition to the official ‘clobber list’ posted by: ctiger | Mar 3 2023 15:48 utc | 195, Military Chronicle has this (via Firefox Translate add-on):
AFU lost a battalion of soldiers in Artemivsk due to fire on their own: details
From February 27 to March 3, units of four large formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Artemivsk (Bakhmut) — the 61st Infantry Brigade, the 8th operational regiment, the 57th motorized infantry brigade and the 125th territorial defense Brigade-lost about 600 people killed and wounded.
According to the Military Chronicle, most of the irretrievable losses in killed and wounded were recorded in the units of the 61st Infantry and 57th motorized infantry brigades defending the northern suburbs of Artemovsk in the area of Grigorovka, Kalinovka and Orekhovo-Vasilevka.
According to preliminary data , during the last day of February and the first three days of March, when trying to retreat from previously occupied positions, the units of these formations failed to correct and coordinate the fire of the M777 155 mm howitzers of the 43rd artillery brigade in Chas Yar. Due to confusion in movements and unstable radio communications, the units were repeatedly caught in the crossfire of Ukrainian and Russian artillery.
Units of the 8th operational regiment were sent to the line of engagement to clarify the situation and direct the AFU artillery, but when approaching the destination, the column fell under the artillery strike of Hyacinth-S and D-20 guns of 152 mm caliber and was destroyed. According to preliminary data, the total losses of the units could amount to 560-590 people, which is equal to the number of a full-fledged military battalion armed with dozens of pieces of equipment.
Presumably, one of the reasons for the death of servicemen of the units of the 61st Infantry Brigade, the 8th operational regiment, the 57th motorized infantry brigade and the 125th territorial defense brigade could be the lack of a “friend — foe”identification system. According to incoming information, as one of the reasons for the death of divisions Due to confusion during regrouping and maneuvers, the brigade command is considering a version with the operation of Russian electronic warfare systems. (Military chronicle of TG)
Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 3 2023 16:38 utc | 205
I have no special insight or knowledge to share except my opinion.
I will liken the SMO to a boxing match. One side thought they were ready when the other came out dancing.
The initial Russian attack that seemed to target Key-ev. Then the bruiser back off some before his opponent decided to huddle up.
The guy that decided to huddle up with someone twice his size and having a longer reach has been getting the snot knocked out of him ever since.
There is absolutely no reason why Russia has to let go of the ukronazis while the ziegheilers are losing everything. There is no need to put yourself in danger and allow your opponent out of your grasp, In my opinion, Russia doesn’t need a KO when a TKO is just as good.
The bloody remains of ukraine can figure out what to do after the last punch has landed. When that will be is anyone’s guess. Perhaps VV Putin and Stavka don’t know themselves.
Posted by: T.D. | Mar 3 2023 16:38 utc | 206
Looks like buffalo shit has a new handle, “Old fart legion”.
I said something a few days ago about his prolific posting, haven’t seen “buffalo” since, but today we see “old fart”.
If you go look at his old posts he frequently made comments about old farts, the style of writing is exactly the same.
Originally I wasnt sure if he was just clueless or here to disrupt, now I know it is clearly the later.
Posted by: David F | Mar 3 2023 16:39 utc | 207
@ Bemildred | Mar 3 2023 16:19 utc | 202
Precisely. In my head, though not typed: Maskirovka, sub-element, influence OPs. (Old age, early onset dementia …)
Give them what they want/hope to hear re disunity of command, ill-discipline, opposing factions, etc. Seriously, given the demonstrable strict Strategic/Operational OPSEC from day one, Prizoghin & General Staff are going to openly publicly argue back and forth about critical shortages of artillery shells ?
If Zelensky & Co/AFU is deceived & given false hope/succor by that how does it affect it’s decision process/cycle ? Expend more of their own known shell rationing to achieve perceived(false) temporary advantage to nil effect (subsequently even worse Situ ?) ? Delay withdrawal or reject retreat from Bhakmut given false hope & reinforcing extant confirmation-bias perhaps ? And so on …
@ bevin | Mar 3 2023 16:29 utc | 209
Well said. Delicate Situ. Roll-back & transition forward post Bolsinaro takes time, not instantaneous to satisfy individual demand/impatience/whimsy.
Cheers
Though the run of history seems against the Western Globalist Oligarchy, Pepe himself is frequently triumphalist. A 500-year empire has immense resources–this will be more like 10 steps forward, 9 back.
Europe almost completely subjugated now.
Pakistan–Imran Khan
Brazil–Lula
Peru–Castillo
Argentina–Kircher out of play, almost assassinated
Japan–assassination
Near miss with Lukashenko in Belarus.
Iran color revolution attempted.
Iraq can’t quite break free.
Central Asia always in play. ISIS resurgent in Syria. Afghanistan–the chaos continues.
Modi in India and Erdogan in Turkey and Orban in Hungary are under regime-change pressure.
Serbia–Vucic is on the edge.
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Mar 3 2023 16:52 utc | 209
On the Week in Review thread, I just posted another Lavrov transcript from today that’s very informative as to the genesis of the Ukraine and overall European security issue that lies at its base. Again, as with what you read above, Lavrov’s in top form. Back at the Kremlin, Putin held a meeting of the Security Council but no info aside from that was provided. I again point to the SCO’s anti-terrorism security core that can provide an “alliance-like” joining of efforts between Russia and China to destroy the West’s terrorism.
@ Paul Damascene | Mar 3 2023 16:52 utc | 214
Fervently disagree re your assessment.
IMO, have never seen Empire (Good ol’ US of A) weaker, more vulnerable & exposed than even post Vietnam (American) War, 1973-1983 temporary nadir. Military power, Economic power, Soft power & Nation State influence/coercion (Extinct Diplomacy) …
Just listened to an hour of Mercouris. Not sure I learned much; he tends to talk in circles. One point he did make though, is that China’s hosting of Lukashenko from Belarus is intended to help block any future “color revolutions” instigated by the UK or the CIA.
Let’s hope he’s right on that one.
Posted by: Chris | Mar 3 2023 17:14 utc | 212
Though the run of history seems against the Western Globalist Oligarchy, Pepe himself is frequently triumphalist. A 500-year empire has immense resources–this will be more like 10 steps forward, 9 back.
[…]
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Mar 3 2023 16:52 utc | 214
The truth is that Russia and China don’t really offer a viable alternative right now.
The West offers neofeudal neoliberal capitalism, Russia and China offer the same but under tighter state control.
Local elites look at these alternatives, and being servants of the West is in most cases preferable — they can loot more for themselves under that arrangement. This is why all of Europe is fully captured. There is no better example of that calculus than in Ukraine — a handful of people are raking in billions while enslaving and decimating their own country. But they themselves are benefiting enormously, so it’s a good deal for them, and they have all the power with no bottom up resistance, so there’s nothing to stop them.
Meanwhile Russia and China not being all that different socioeconomically doesn’t really excite the dreams of those who don’t benefit from the system, because it is not all that different for them either way. So there is no bottom up pressure to rise against the local oligarchy.
Back in the Cold War days it was different — communism was a powerful really different ideological alternative and it had demonstrated its capability to lift a backwards Third world country to superpower status in a couple decades. So it did have broad support.
That’s why China wins support in the Third World now — those places are so underdeveloped that China building them some infrastructure does shift the needle in a palpable way and even the local elites see it as a benefit for them.
But in more developed areas, where local elites are in catabolic collapse mode, they have no incentive to rebel. Of course, whether they could actually rebel even if they wanted to is its own separate question…
Ultimately the sad truth is that the West wins by default because their system preys on and encourages human greed and others vices. You need people to rise above their most base instincts to overcome those temptations, but that is not easy and more often than not it does not happen or only last temporarily.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 3 2023 17:18 utc | 213
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Mar 3 2023 16:52 utc | 214
Taking a ‘cup half-full‘ view of your list, it shows just how many brush fires the Empire is having to try and stamp out around the world; this doesn’t include the growing assertion of African nations against hegemonic colonialism.
Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 3 2023 17:20 utc | 214
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz may come under pressure from President Joe Biden over the problem of producing enough ammunition for the front – Bloomberg.
https://t.me/intelslava/45369
Interesting, USA kneecapped German industry, might be the only way for Germany to keep their head above water is to put people to work in the war industry. This will apply to the rest of Europe – you can avoid a depression level collapse but only if you convert your economies into armaments slave factories for the empire.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 3 2023 17:25 utc | 215
Let’s hope he’s right on that one.
Posted by: Chris | Mar 3 2023 17:14 utc | 217
Luka-Xi visit is a very good move at this point, IMHO. I expect they will develop economic relations rapidly now, with Russia beaming as it looks on. High marks for everybody involved.
“A good strategy works in many ways.”
Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 3 2023 17:25 utc | 216
Fervently disagree re your assessment.
IMO, have never seen Empire (Good ol’ US of A) weaker, more vulnerable & exposed than even post Vietnam (American) War, 1973-1983 temporary nadir. Military power, Economic power, Soft power & Nation State influence/coercion (Extinct Diplomacy) …
Posted by: Outraged | Mar 3 2023 17:05 utc | 216
Just seen your post, absolutely agree. Just to add, I have never seen the Empire with such a paucity of statesmanlike or far-sighted leadership. Where are the Kennedys, the de Gaulles, even the Willy Brandts, of today?
Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 3 2023 17:28 utc | 217
@ Paul Damascene | Mar 3 2023 16:52 utc | 214
Fervently disagree re your assessment.
IMO, have never seen Empire (Good ol’ US of A) weaker, more vulnerable & exposed than even post Vietnam (American) War, 1973-1983 temporary nadir. Military power, Economic power, Soft power & Nation State influence/coercion (Extinct Diplomacy) …
Posted by: Outraged | Mar 3 2023 17:05 utc | 216
Well, it certainly looked that way last year around this time.
I myself was in euphoria — we are so back, baby, Soviet flags are flying on T-72 tanks again, reunification is coming, the evil empire will be finally defeated.
Rapid territorial gains were being made, the coup in Kazakhstan had been successfully thwarted, Belarus had resisted strongly the year before too, etc.
Even over the summer things were still looking positive — it did seem like Russian diplomacy was very successful, and we were all waiting for decisive measures to be taken to resolve the military stalemate.
But now…
It’s a very different picture, and I am afraid that what he described is a much more accurate description of reality.
Neither the US nor Europe have collapsed economically (people keep making these predictions for more than 15 years now, and it never happens, because these are not real economies, yet they stubbornly continue to analyze them as if they are), even the vaunted dedollarization hasn’t really happened to the extent it was expected to, meanwhile political control has been consolidated. Most people here presumably have little to no access to non-English media from around Europe — the total cleansing of any remotely positive for Russia elements from the discourse is simply astonishing, all throughout the continent. And that does have an enormous influence.
Right now things are look quite bleak, don’t fool yourself.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 3 2023 17:29 utc | 218
Just seen your post, absolutely agree. Just to add, I have never seen the Empire with such a paucity of statesmanlike or far-sighted leadership. Where are the Kennedys, the de Gaulles, even the Willy Brandts, of today?
Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 3 2023 17:28 utc | 222
Where is Stalin on the other side?
That is the bigger problem right now.
Stalin is said to have grumbled at some point in the late 1940s/early 1950s “When I die, the capitalists will eat you alive”. It’s exactly what happened, and the fifth column capitalists are still in charge in Russia.
You don’t need great leaders for predatory capitalism to function. Quite the opposite — weak leaders are a feature, not a bug, while strong leaders have an unfortunate tendency to rock the boat and have dangerous ideas such as forcing capital to do at least something for the common good. Look at the list of US presidents between the Civil War and WWII. How many strong leaders do you see? And hasn’t the trend over the last 50 years been to return to that time, but minus the investments into railways from that era?
Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 3 2023 17:36 utc | 219
Just listened to an hour of Mercouris. Not sure I learned much; he tends to talk in circles.
Posted by: Chris | Mar 3 2023 17:14 utc | 217
Concision is not his strong point.
Posted by: Drinky Crow | Mar 3 2023 17:39 utc | 220
Posted by: bevin | Mar 3 2023 16:29 utc | 209
The politics of Lula, Allende, Corbyn, Sanders and the like are to ‘suck up, punch left and kick down’. Corbyn, for instance, destroyed the left in the UK for at least a generation by actively collaborating with the state and establishment’s campaign to traduce his own supporters as racists and anti-semites. Indeed, so committed was he to the status-quo that his leader’s office oversaw a purge of his own supporters by the Blairites of labour right. Having secured Labour for the right indefinitely, in a final disgrace in the dying days of his leadership, he tried to get the Zionist and racist (but I repeat myself) Tom Watson appointed to the House of Lords.
No amount of alchemy will turn these base individuals into allies of the working class.
Posted by: Lengai | Mar 3 2023 17:39 utc | 221
Interesting, USA kneecapped German industry, might be the only way for Germany to keep their head above water is to put people to work in the war industry. This will apply to the rest of Europe – you can avoid a depression level collapse but only if you convert your economies into armaments slave factories for the empire.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 3 2023 17:25 utc | 220
“Armament slave factories” is an apt description.
But it won’t be the high-level stuff — they may have Germany producing shells and other munitions, but other than that their MIC is getting destroyed too.
The scheme with the tanks is very clear — Leopards from all over Europe get sent to Ukraine, the US gives Abrams as replacements, and forever after those countries will be buying US tanks, while Rheinmetall is pushed out of the market. Same will happen with the other armor and artillery.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 3 2023 17:41 utc | 222
Posted by: r they all traitors | Mar 3 2023 17:32 utc | 224
Why keep repeating the same dreck? Go read the rules of this place; maybe come back after you’ve been properly socialized and learn how to play nice:
“Please choose ONE unique username and stick to it. Using multiple names is sockpuppeteering and will get you banned.”
Posted by: Chris | Mar 3 2023 17:42 utc | 223
@Shadowbanned
weak leaders are a feature, not a bug, while strong leaders have an unfortunate tendency to rock the boat and have dangerous ideas
good observation. And at present, we have the best collection of weak leaders evah!
US – an 80 yo patient in late stage cognitive decline.
UK – can no longer find leaders; had to import one from India
Germany – a eunuch who can’t muster the courage to stand up to a foreign power that just attacked critical infrastructure that has destroyed German industry
Posted by: Chris | Mar 3 2023 17:47 utc | 224
Some takeaways from Military Summary. It seems possible that UAF might actually sooner or later lose Kupyansk, as well. Ukraine has deployed a rocket artillery brigade east of Kupyansk on east side of the Oskol reservoir. But whether that situation is at all sustainable for Ukraine is far from certain.
Lyman will be the next important front after Bakhmut, which will enable threaten Seversk. In the Zaporizhe-Ugledar front, Ukrainians are losing tanks almost every day when they present them to the front (these are the T-64 or other USSR tanks). In the Kherson front UAF is also interestingly losing relatively lot of stuff, considering that there are no land contact.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 3 2023 17:53 utc | 225
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 3 2023 16:20 utc | 203
Mr. Bolsonaro is “the man”. He is honest love his countrymen. He was against mandatory vaccins, against masks and against lockdown.
We have to remember when Mr. Bolsonaro meet Mr. Putin in Moscow. Mr. Bolsonaro wanted to have the best posible relationship with Russia.
Lula is on the other side.
International, old and nostalgic left thought as ideologically as any US or UK enemy of Russia.
Posted by: Roberto | Mar 3 2023 17:56 utc | 226
No amount of alchemy will turn these base individuals into allies of the working class.
Posted by: Lengai | Mar 3 2023 17:39 utc | 228
Well, the winning recipe is social conservatism (but not too extreme — the working class generally is not out there demanding execution for abortion doctors) plus strongly socialist economic policies.
This has been so obvious for such a long time, that it is truly remarkable nobody has occupied that niche. One has to be a complete idiot not to see it, not that he has to see it on his own — it’s not as if the point hasn’t been made by many already, on numerous occasions.
And yet…
Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 3 2023 17:56 utc | 227
Mr. Bolsonaro is “the man”. He is honest love his countrymen. He was against mandatory vaccins, against masks and against lockdown.
Posted by: Roberto | Mar 3 2023 17:56 utc | 233
And 850,000 innocent people died, because he refused to do a paid shutdown, just as his buddies in the US (from where this disaster for humanity all flowed downstream)
Such a love for his countrymen indeed…
Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 3 2023 17:58 utc | 228
Catilina – 204
Sure, the Parthians never were big guns, though they could beat Roman armies when they were too cocky and made blatant mistakes or overextended too much. They were still eventually crushed more easily and faster than Hannibal’s Carthage. The real deal was the Sassanians who replaced them. They might not have been a true peer but they were the closest the Roman Empire had come to face until then – you’d indeed have to go back to earlier Republic, at Hannibal’s times or earlier, to find peers or near-peers to Rome, and if you look at last stages, only Attila came close.
About earlier comments, it’s worth noting that the Pax Romana was sure unipolar in the Mediterranean world, but the planet wasn’t unipolar of course. Rome and specially China were aware that they were the 2 big dogs sitting at each end of Eurasia.
Whatever occasional trouble or revolt there were in Han or Roman Empire at the time, there’s probably ground to debate if the 117-180 era wasn’t the best (as in “less horrible”) for the average human on Earth, considering the huge part of mankind who lived in either empire, in the longer timeline between the agricultural revolution and the 20th century.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Mar 3 2023 17:58 utc | 229
@ shadowbanned | Mar 3 2023 17:29 utc | 223
Right now, & preceding 24 months & more, things looked quite bleak for empire, moving forward, far, far worse. Don’t fool yourself & spend such inordinate time attempting to do so to others.
Neither the US nor Europe have collapsed economically (people keep making these predictions for more than 15 years now, and it never happens, because these are not real economies, yet they stubbornly continue to analyze them as if they are), even the vaunted dedollarization hasn’t really happened to the extent it was expected to, meanwhile political control has been consolidated. Most people here presumably have little to no access to non-English media from around Europe — the total cleansing of any remotely positive for Russia elements from the discourse is simply astonishing, all throughout the continent. And that does have an enormous influence.
Oh F*ck off.
Superficial, misrepresented, projected false assertions re past & present, contrary to myriad corroborated documented FACTS & DATA referenced throughout these threads & this site, including huge resources of non-western MSM material & sources, regular translations of foreign(non-english media), international contributors. Clearly you assert you and westerners do not consume on-site or media off site in the RoW, nor anywhere else. BS!
Wilful ignorance, even only asserted, is bliss heh ?
Crafted & vomited up as only a determined Psyops troll, who ‘dumps’ posts yet never actually ‘consumes’, would. Incredibly robust determined ignorance you’ve got going there … quite literally full of Sh*t. 🙂
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 3 2023 17:53 utc | 232
Also would note that there is a rail line running through Bakhmut-Seversk-Lyman-Kupyansk – on to Russia, which is probably one of the intermediate goals and solve lot of logistical issues. But that might still be quite some time away, who knows.
It really depends on how many troops Nato is throwing into battle, considering all the statements they seem very worried. They have declined to the level of making terrorist attacks and using chemical weapons in plain sight, and Estonia is screaming nuclear weapons for Kiev regime.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 3 2023 18:00 utc | 231
Lengai @228
It really isn’t about base individuals (or world historical heroes) it is about class consciousness and
class struggle.
And reforms play a part in building both. Such measures as anti-poverty programmes may seem almost contemptible to foreign intellectuals but to the masses in Brazil they are important and play a part in cementing a political programme together.
https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Lula-Relaunches-Program-That-Lifted-Millions-Out-of-Poverty-20230303-0001.html
The problem with Corbyn lay in the nature of his political base-He certainly made many errors of judgement but his weakness was attributable to the movement as a whole. Figureheads only go forward when the energy behind them is strong enough.
Posted by: bevin | Mar 3 2023 18:02 utc | 232
@shadowbanned #various
Ultimately it doesn’t matter what you think, what I think, what any of us here think or say. Ultimately it is what the Global Majority thinks that matters.
In that respect the Empire is outnumbered, outweighed, out-resourced, outproduced, outvoted, in the process of being out-financed, and at the current rate of munitions consumption in Ukraine, soon to be outgunned.
Your move…
Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 3 2023 18:04 utc | 233
Some takeaways from Military Summary. It seems possible that UAF might actually sooner or later lose Kupyansk, as well. Ukraine has deployed a rocket artillery brigade east of Kupyansk on east side of the Oskol reservoir. But whether that situation is at all sustainable for Ukraine is far from certain.
Lyman will be the next important front after Bakhmut, which will enable threaten Seversk. In the Zaporizhe-Ugledar front, Ukrainians are losing tanks almost every day when they present them to the front (these are the T-64 or other USSR tanks). In the Kherson front UAF is also interestingly losing relatively lot of stuff, considering that there are no land contact.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 3 2023 17:53 utc | 232
Fingers crossed for a fast AFU collapse and then an accelerated roll up.
But at this rate, it will take until the end of the year to just reverse the Kharkov losses and maybe, just maybe take Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. Maybe. But nobody is mentioning that in the DPR there are also Konstaniovka, Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk and Mirnograd, which are also about the same size as Bakhmut and will be painful operations too.
And that still won’t even liberate all constitutionally Russian territories — Zaporozhye and Kherson cities are under Ukrainian control.
Sumy, Chernigov, Kharkov, Poltava, Dnepropetrovsk, when?
Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 3 2023 18:05 utc | 234
This is a really fun article in NYT:
Scrounging for Tanks for Ukraine, Europe’s Armies Come Up Short https://nyti.ms/3Zw01Ox
Posted by: Curious Russian | Mar 3 2023 18:10 utc | 235
True leaders protect their own citizens best interests. All the ecstasy about Lula and/or Modi had been turned under US/EU pressure is premature.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/brazils-lula-discusses-war-in-ukraine-peace-efforts-in-call-with-zelenksyy-/2835893
……Lula does not want to compromise Brazil’s bilateral and trade relations with Russia, China, nor the US. ……
https://www.indianpunchline.com/a-reality-check-for-modi-govts-g20-ambitions/
……A reality check for Modi Govt’s G20 ambitions……
Reflecting upon most EU leaders, they are proven to be subaltern to the hegemony.
Posted by: KitaySupporter | Mar 3 2023 18:12 utc | 236
Oh F*ck off.
Superficial, misrepresented, projected false assertions re past & present, contrary to myriad corroborated documented FACTS & DATA referenced throughout these threads & this site, including huge resources of non-western MSM material & sources, regular translations of foreign(non-english media), international contributors. Clearly you assert you and westerners do not consume on-site or media off site in the RoW, nor anywhere else. BS!
Posted by: Outraged | Mar 3 2023 17:59 utc | 237
Superficially, but quite factually in fact, Kolomna (where Iskanders are made) got a drone sent its way for a second day in a row, and while it didn’t hit KB Mashinostroyeniya this time either, it made a pretty loud bang somewhere in the vicinity.
Yesterday there was a drone hit at the airfield in Yeysk, and today there was another one at the training airfield in Krasnodar.
There was also a drone that fell short of Tula (which is the largest center of the Russian MIC when it comes to small arms and munitions).
When Boeing, Raytheon, and Lockheed Martin facilities start going boom by drone strikes, and the US government is pretending that it is not happening, that is when we will get to parity in the war.
Those are the objective facts.
It is also an objective fact that how much inflation and deindustrialization there is in the West is entirely irrelevant — “they” are in complete control of everything, so there is not going to be a rebellion regardless of how bad it gets. There hasn’t been on for 50 years after all, there won’t be one now.
What matters is the military balance, and the military balance is that one side is taking hits and dares not strike back. Which usually gets you killed. And that’s also a very objective fact.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 3 2023 18:12 utc | 237
Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 3 2023 18:12 utc | 244
If Russia looks bad, think how utterly defense US would be in a similar case, where small and long range and low flying drones would be launched from somewhere like Mexico to their production facilities. They could be launched from onboard a cargo ship in the Caribbean, etc.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 3 2023 18:24 utc | 238
Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 3 2023 18:12 utc | 244
Attacks with dumb drones flung at the general direction of some target inside Russia proper will only increase. It is not too difficult to do that and NATO provides the intelligence.
Russia can not do anything about this at the moment physically. Ukraine is a very tough nut to crack for Russia, slowly grinding at it is the only choice they have. Regular troops and conscripts dont have what it takes to do what Wagner does every day, so one-by-one liberation of each settlement until kingdom come is how it will go.
Prigozhin even said so: one year until the Dniepr, one more year until the Polish border (and about 6 more months to the English channel if I may add).
Deal with it and be helpful.
Posted by: alek_a | Mar 3 2023 18:37 utc | 239
For Friday night Comedy Hour in the bar tonight’s special offer includes a free word salad with every drink!
Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 3 2023 18:38 utc | 240
Paul Damascene@214
“Pakistan–Imran Khan” Out of office but closer to power than he has ever been. It is clear now in Pakistan that the Army is led by Fifth Columnists who will always act on behalf of the US.
“Brazil–Lula” Lula was in jail a matter of months ago. The PT was broken into pieces and defeated. That is no longer the case, Lula is surfing the wave of necessity. In his way is the massive weight of the ancient Brazilian oligarchy. The Wheel is still in Spin.
“Peru–Castillo” Castillo was in office but powerless. It was evident from the moment of his taking the Presidency that his days were numbered. No surprise- his election was the latest, and very significant, reminder to the Few that the Many will have their demands implemented.
Which is better a Peruvian working class making revolutionary moves, or a President in a broad brimmed hat who cannot appoint his Ministers?
“Argentina–Kircher(sic) out of play, almost assassinated” The situation in Argentina remains one in which a small, powerful oligarchy of compradors and cops is determined to make no sacrifice of its ill gotten privileges unless forced to do so. Kirchner is the victim of lawfare. But, as is the case in all these setbacks, the ability of the US to upset the political balance is diminished.
All these situations need to be viewed in the light of this diminution of US power, which is evidenced by its failures in Ukraine and in Taiwan. In Iran it failed after exerting maximum pressure on the government. In Belarus its interference drove Lukashenko deep into the SCO’s embrace.
The fact that Erdogan, Orban and Modi (all right wingers and natural allies of the imperialists) are
under regime change pressure is a measure of the Empire’s weakness. In normal circumstances they would all be in Washington’s pocket.
As to Iraq and Afghanistan it was not long ago that the US ruled both countries, now it exerts its influence in Iraq while it threatens to bomb Afghanistan. Again these are signs of imperial weakness.
Where I do agree with Paul is in understanding that the imperialists will fight tooth and nail to retain their hegemony. But we knew that. We can also see that it has never been harder for them to do so. The French are in full retreat from Africa. The British have very little influence left in their former empire. They are likely to be booted out of the Falklands and Gibraltar soon.
The US has lost its dominant position on Colombia, and in Mexico. Its puppet in Ecuador is on the way out. Its Bolivian puppets are finished. Honduras is no longer politically aligned with Washington, though it remains a military base. Nicaragua and Venezuela, like Cuba have survived the worst that the Empire could throw at them.
El Salvador, I’ll grant, is cosying up to the Empire. But who would want the madmen there on their side?
Posted by: bevin | Mar 3 2023 18:38 utc | 241
Comandante | Mar 3 2023 15:05 utc | 191
I am no fan of Mercenaries and dislike that Wagner guys antics. Hes mostly a clown.
While you are watching Dr Whiteface, the rest of the clowns are rebuilding the car etc…
Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Mar 3 2023 18:49 utc | 242
If Russia looks bad, think how utterly defense US would be in a similar case, where small and long range and low flying drones would be launched from somewhere like Mexico to their production facilities. They could be launched from onboard a cargo ship in the Caribbean, etc.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 3 2023 18:24 utc | 245
Yes, of course, that could be done. But nobody dares.
Russia can not do anything about this at the moment physically. Ukraine is a very tough nut to crack for Russia, slowly grinding at it is the only choice they have. Regular troops and conscripts dont have what it takes to do what Wagner does every day, so one-by-one liberation of each settlement until kingdom come is how it will go.
Posted by: alek_a | Mar 3 2023 18:37 utc | 246
Incorrect. There is a tremendous amount of damage that could have and should have been inflicted a very long time ago, and that would have put a stop to what is happening now and sped up the AFU collapse.
It hasn’t happened, and the great mystery of the last twelve months is why.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 3 2023 18:51 utc | 243
@ shadowbanned | Mar 3 2023 18:51 utc | 250 with diarrhea of the keyboard
Your sheer volume of BS makes you of little value to MoA barflies
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 3 2023 18:59 utc | 244
@ Bevin
Corbyn purged anybody who tried to push him to the left or to make him stand up for his supposed principles. Those who tried to strengthen his movement were destroyed, and establishment toadies like Starmer and Watson were protected and promoted by him and his office while they worked to overthrow him.
Yet by your account, the sincere working class left wingers and anti-racists whose political and personal lives were frequently destroyed by the malicious with-hunt that Corbyn and his office oversaw only have themselves to blame fo the fact that Corbyn and the claque of public school boys he hired consciously worked to destroy them.
Also, kindly drop the sneering about ‘Western intellectuals’. For one it’s beneath you and, two you know (less than) nothing about me.
Posted by: Lengai | Mar 3 2023 19:21 utc | 245
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 3 2023 17:25 utc | 220
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz may come under pressure from President Joe Biden over the problem of producing enough ammunition for the front – Bloomberg.
https://t.me/intelslava/45369
Seems like manufacture of artillery shells should have a high energy demand, requiring large inputs of fossil fuel in the casting of shells and synthesis of high explosive chemicals. Since the US has ensured that Germany will not have a supply of inexpensive natural gas anytime in the foreseeable future, I wonder how Joe expects Germany to put together a manufacturing chain that will crank out tens of thousands of shells a month.
Posted by: Mike R | Mar 3 2023 19:23 utc | 246
3 Vit5o “this text is one of the best reflections on the operational aspect of the war so far –https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-schrodingers
”
Thanks for the link! I agree, most informative analysis I’ve seen in a while.
Posted by: nazcalito | Mar 3 2023 19:53 utc | 247
psychohistorian | Mar 3 2023 18:59 utc | 251
@ shadowbanned | Mar 3 2023 18:51 utc | 250 with diarrhea of the keyboard
Your sheer volume of BS makes you of little value to MoA barflies
Well, mmm, yes & no. Your insisting on engaging with this thing, gives it weight ! Just ignore it.
Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Mar 3 2023 20:11 utc | 248
Well, good night all ! I’m off to play Last Epoch, with a new er, écran, so I can actually see the fings wot murdered me last time !
Wish me luck Ô brethrèn und sistrèn !
Good luck, obviously.
Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Mar 3 2023 20:16 utc | 249
@ Ajax | Mar 3 2023 15:29 utc | 193
How’s Alckmin doing on the corruption-front?
Posted by: John Kennard | Mar 3 2023 20:24 utc | 250
@ Colin | Mar 3 2023 16:07 utc | 199
Don’t forget that over the last thirty years we’ve had a lesson in what contemporary unipolarity would likely look like.
I vote for nonpolarity.
Posted by: John Kennard | Mar 3 2023 20:36 utc | 251
Wanted to thank Bevin, Outraged and others for the perceptive responses.
I perhaps didn’t make myself clear–I do think Imperial power is on the wane, but there’s still a lot of power left. I do think it will collapse but the road may be rocky. 10 steps forward, 9 back. In this way, there may be times when it looks like multipolarity is losing ground.
But Africa’s a bright spot–if South Africa doesn’t collapse entirely. Cambodia’s comprador was just sentenced to 27 years for collaborating with the US. Philippines is a step back, but Malaysia & Thailand & (maybe) South Korea & seem promising. Syria could take a big step forward.
Though de-dollarization is slow, the China/Saudi oil for yuan talks are huge–VERY hard to get foreign buyers for USTs at the moment, and China & even now Japan are selling theirs hard. Gold & silver seem about to pop. A lot of local currency trades.
Dollar doesn’t maybe crash overnight but debt keeps growing, gets harder & harder to finance, interest rates have to rise, USD buys less and less overseas (which is inflation) even though all other currencies (esp Western currencies) are worse, except Ruble.
I keep wondering if China / BRICS might help Africa do a partial debt default–some loans to Western banks have paid for themselves many times over. More pressure on Western banks.
And I half suspect there is a gold for Russian oil & strategic natural resources play that Russia may make, for unfriendly countries. Right now Russia actually allows Europe to buy rubles with Euros & USDs. They could say–spot market oil? Sure, but pay in gold. And for titanium, iron, sapphire substrates, argon, palladium, platinum, nickel, copper. Which you’re using to make weapons to use against us.
Shadowbanned @223
Despair not.
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Mar 4 2023 2:14 utc | 252
@ myself a few minutes ago
Reading over the latest UKR Open Thread, I see that I spoke too soon.
Posted by: malenkov | Mar 4 2023 2:38 utc | 253
From RT’s top article today. RT, by the way,, is still accessible in the US:
“One of Europe’s top right-wing extremists’: Who is the neo-Nazi behind this week’s Ukrainian attack in Russia’s Bryansk Region? The organizer of the terrorist incident near the two states’ shared border moved to Kiev in 2017 and has a long association with far-right violence.. ”
This article discusses the huge following of Neo-Nazi events in Russia, Europe and UkraiUkraine. Included are soccer, combat events, and other activities.
It does not sound small. Very, very racist agenda for these groups. I was quite surprised. On one hand I thought this might be a reason for Putin’s slow and cautious approach. On the other hand, I am rather sure that a “White” hating group can no longer get very far in the Western world.Also, these groups provide a clear and simple reason for the Global South to support Russia in this conflict.
Posted by: HelenB | Mar 4 2023 3:46 utc | 254
@ Paul Damascene | Mar 4 2023 2:14 utc | 259
“Sawright!”, Baba Looey. All good. Cheers.
Peace
In a way, the Russians should probably be thankful that Nato has chosen it to be the de-facto almost sole multipurpose aircraft well into the 2050s.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 2 2023 22:25 utc | 72
The trend seems to be: more and more money to the arms makers (‘ shareholders) for weapons that cost more and more and are less and less effective. The end result will either be total economic collapse or weapons that are harmless. Even the former might not be a bad idea.
Posted by: Gene Poole | Mar 4 2023 9:37 utc | 256
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Mar 2 2023 22:50 utc | 76
“There is Europe’s astonishing surrender of its interests to a voraciously coercive administration as it leads America into its late-imperial phase. Related to this, there are the regrettable pledges of allegiance sworn by Finland, Sweden, and Germany—three nations whose honorable but now-abandoned role was to serve as bridges between West and East. These are realignments, each in response to the Biden regime’s decision to make Ukraine the crucible of its defense of a fading hegemony.
This radical new subservience to Washington is freighted with consequence in its own right. Born of insecurity and a profound lack of vision and imagination, it is a very bad call on the part of America’s “allies and partners” and will leave them at a considerable disadvantage as our new century progresses. Can they not hear history’s wheel turning?”
It’s Evolution baby! 🙂
Today is first time I saw this very prescient 1999 video…
Posted by: nathan in WA US | Mar 5 2023 1:02 utc | 257
Posted by: Colin | Mar 3 2023 12:42 utc | 166
“Hey remember that war from 200 years ago before the American Pax? Doesn’t that disprove the American Pax?”
Brain working at 110% here.
Posted by: Old Fart Legion | Mar 6 2023 9:05 utc | 258