https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/21336
Americans will be sending their sons and daughters to the war and they will be dying – Zelensky says at a press conference

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 1 2023 17:42 utc | 3

Russia does not want to try to defeat NATO militarily. It wants NATO to break up through, in particular, German withdrawal. If they win in Ukraine, absorbing the Donbas, and leaving a client regime in the rest, Europe will be left with no energy. NATO will be seen as incapable of its task. Already the populations of Germany, France, Italy and other countries are seeing the stupidity of their support for their own destruction. What could the US with a huge military budget that has it running out of ammunition do about it? To go to war directly with NATO is to risk nuclear war. Remember the US is run by mad, evil, stupid men and women.

Posted by: Michael Doliner | Mar 1 2023 17:58 utc | 5

Perhaps the slow mow approach of the RF is wise. There does not appear to be any potential for insurgency in the taken areas. As long as they take great care of who gets to return to these lands after the victory, unifying Russia and the former ukraine should be possible and perhaps permanent.

Posted by: Slavador | Mar 1 2023 18:04 utc | 7

I guess I understand now the 360 Degree comment from Ms. Baerbock:
Is russia on Natos Doorstep?

Posted by: Macpott | Mar 1 2023 18:04 utc | 9

@Timewilltell you are certainly right about that. But destroying those three cities would collapse world trade and lead to a massive famine.
They will have to be gradually replaced.

Posted by: Rhinoskerous | Mar 1 2023 18:09 utc | 11

A video has emerged of the “destroyed-by-drones” A-50.
(dedicated to foreskin enthusiast jgalt)

Posted by: Sektion2B | Mar 1 2023 18:17 utc | 13

Less and less artillery on the Ukrainian front but more and more death.
Holding a position without support(artillery planes or missiles) is not possible or replace men, replace men…
Western weapons produced just for the benefit of $ are ineffective and so expensive that there are few.
The French caesar are particularly rotten and participate widely the logistical exhaustion of Ukraine.
All are failed or destroyed and back to Versailles to Nexter inc in pieces.
Denmark has understood this and has sold (debarassed on credit the banqksters) all their “caesar” to Ukrain which them returns go back to Paris without prestige by having killed some civilians as feat of arms.
article and report are legion.
https://www.donbass-insider.com/en/?s=caesar
In fact a good old Soviet D20 in its rusticity is the symbol of the defeat of the West advancing on the battlefield with a cannon that they call “Caesar”.L’empreur. It’s not an ivention.
This kind of betrayal is double.
First the price for a pieces of shit.
The second is the breakdown in the action causing immediately correction and death.
The D20 is always present on the battlefield of both parts and without betray .
Russia hastily organizes convoys of trucks loaded with corpses Ukrainens, the early thaw brings with it diseases and smells.
The Ukrainian army is defeated, civilian Ukraine is stripped by the Western banqkster and their acolytes(monsanto blackmachin…).
For money to flow, men MUST die.
A regime change in Ukraine is inevitable in the short term.

Posted by: la bouteille | Mar 1 2023 18:30 utc | 15

If the Russian military holds and strengthens into the Spring, defeats the Ukrainian counter-offensive, and only then goes on the offensive again, then I think they’ve got a shot at the Donbas and forcing a resolution to the war that favors them.
They may be able to do it, if they make the smart decisions that are hard to make. I’m on tinterhooks right now regarding the mysteriously non-materializing offensive. If they hit now, they’re not maximizing their chances. Can they delay gratification?

Posted by: GoFast | Mar 1 2023 18:34 utc | 17

@ Macpott | Mar 1 2023 18:04 utc | 9
great link with exchange of matt lee and john kirby… i am going to have to see what that comes out in the usa state dept news briefings and share all of the exchange here at moa.. it hasn’t been released yet… matt lee is one of the only reporters to do this sort of exchange… thanks macpott..

Posted by: james | Mar 1 2023 18:42 utc | 19

https://simplicius76.substack.com/
Simplicus has an excellent article today about the new reorganization from BTG to Assault Groups and how this affects operations in the Donbas. Of note each group has 12 flamethrower. I won’t go into the details as he explains it so much better than I could. However, this should raise a lot of morale about how this is being conducted.

Posted by: Old Microbiologist | Mar 1 2023 18:50 utc | 21

@17 my thoughts exactly. The pressure is on nato to push the Ukrainians to finish the conflict. Russia has already been facing the maximum consequences sanctions and blockade like sanctions. Its not like the west will actually lift the sanctions without a russian defeat and forced alliance.
So why rush if I’m Russia? They’ve been running it on older weapon systems that they’ve got a lot of and can reasonably blow shit up for years, or even forever like north Korea.
Ukraine has almost no factories or the power to run them. They conscripted basically every male for fighting and they did that quick like they were ready for it.
Ukraines war fighting potential is mostly western subsidized, even to supplying the actual soldiers themselves.
Europe spent almost a trillion Dollars subsidizing energy. They didn’t freeze but that was expensive, so who’s counting down?
A year countdown has been allowed to spread through western media, probably from disaffected western elites, which points to Civil unrest if not resolved
So if staying power is considered it has to point to russia gaining from waiting relatively speaking. Ukraine will attack ready or not once mud time is over, and russia needs to be ready to stop it and follow up with a push of their own.
It was funny how the media spent all winter trying to gin up a big russian tank and jet rush lol. It was obviously a trap and so far russia has smartened up.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 1 2023 18:57 utc | 23

As of late, the losses of [UK]raine and servicemen is becoming brutal and growing exponentially with the encirclement of the Russian Forces in Artyomovsk. Losses are now exceeding 310,000 heads since the Special Military Operation ‘SMO’ began last year and more than 5,000 in the last couple of weeks including NATO fighters.

Posted by: AI | Mar 1 2023 18:59 utc | 25

Posted by: Blissex | Mar 1 2023 18:47 utc | 21
«That’s still the plan obviously, for the next 10-15-20 years. Some people here think that the time horizon of the USA elites is a few months, but it is really decades.»
The decades go by, but certain things don’t change, here is a quote about the previous edition of the Azov/RightSector “freedom fighters”:
https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/08/20/americas-forgotten-bullshit-bombing-of-serbia/
“The Kosovo Liberation Army’s savage nature was well known before the Clinton administration formally christened them “freedom fighters” in 1999. The previous year, the State Department condemned “terrorist action by the so-called Kosovo Liberation Army.” The KLA was heavily involved in drug trafficking and had close to ties to Osama bin Laden. Arming the KLA helped Clinton portray himself as a crusader against injustice and shift public attention after his impeachment trial. Clinton was aided by many congressmen eager to portray U.S. bombing as an engine of righteousness. Sen. Joe Lieberman whooped that the United States and the KLA “stand for the same values and principles. Fighting for the KLA is fighting for human rights and American values.”
Bonus quote on the same theme:
https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/08/20/americas-forgotten-bullshit-bombing-of-serbia/
“Clinton remains a hero in Kosovo, and there is an 11-foot statue of him standing in the capitol, Pristina, on Bill Clinton Boulevard. […] Hillary Clinton revealed to an interviewer in the summer of 1999, “I urged him to bomb. You cannot let this go on at the end of a century that has seen the major holocaust of our time. What do we have NATO for if not to defend our way of life?” A biography of Hillary Clinton, written by Gail Sheehy and published in late 1999, stated that Mrs. Clinton had refused to talk to the president for eight months after the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke. She resumed talking to her husband only when she phoned him and urged him in the strongest terms to begin bombing Serbia; the president began bombing within 24 hours.”
It is somewhat comical, but it is also a tragedy.

Posted by: Blissex | Mar 1 2023 19:02 utc | 27

Some say the Russians wanted to take Kiev at the beginning of the SMO. Other say the Russians did not want to take Kiev at the beginning of the SMO (which I think is the position here). Is there proof of this one way or the other?

Posted by: William | Mar 1 2023 19:06 utc | 29

@Eighthman | Mar 1 2023 17:35 utc | 2
Russia is adhering to their principle that this is not A war but a special military operation. The Ukraine is facilitating this by sending it’s military and the West’s surplus materiels to the front lines for destruction, a process that will end with all of Russia’s concerns being fully addressed at a very low cost. If that changes we will be a lot closer to WW III, which is unlikely to leave survivors. Russia, China and Iran are aware of this and trying to avoid it despite the West’s suicidal efforts.

Posted by: Hermit | Mar 1 2023 19:11 utc | 31

@29 No there’s no proof either way, but I’ll try to fill in the blanks
Russia was open to taking kiev but only with Ukrainian collaborators. When they couldn’t pull it off like kherson, Putins army he lined up on the highways had no where to go. When plan A failed they fell back on smaller goal plan B.
So yes they wanted it, but they weren’t prepared to fight hard for it, as they were using too few soldiers and had to face off the already positioned donbass attack force ukraine had in the east.
A nice to have not a must have.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 1 2023 19:15 utc | 33

Posted by: Blissex | Mar 1 2023 18:57 utc | 24
OMG! That’s… isn’t that child abuse, somehow???
~~~
Sadly, I have not yet been able to find confirmation that the 24th Mechanized Brigade, “Boris Johnson” Unit marched into battle to the Benny Hill TV show theme music…

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 1 2023 19:33 utc | 35

@ Michael Doliner | Mar 1 2023 17:58 utc | 5
I’m not an expert – is Germany truly sovereign and able to take the decision to withdraw from NATO?
Regardless, the Brexit years threaten a future nationalistic zeitgeist in Europe as the long-term effects of the 2008 financial crisis continue to lay bare the hollowed-out economies of the West.
As the economic effects of this Ukrainian conflict start to really bite, it will accelerate the vacuum already created by the ‘kick the can down the road’ economic policies of the last 10 years or so.
We will live to see populist opportunists with easy answers to complex questions – promises of a better future – emerge in the next 10 years all around Europe.
This will be the risk to be negotiated and overcome if we are to have the political conditions necessary to embrace a multi-polar world.

Posted by: Teal | Mar 1 2023 19:40 utc | 37

Russia was open to taking kiev but only with Ukrainian collaborators. When they couldn’t pull it off like kherson, Putins army he lined up on the highways had nowhere to go. When plan A failed they fell back on smaller goal plan B.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 1 2023 19:15 utc | 33
—————————-
Here I think I disagree with you Neofeudalfuture, though your point does make sense. But surly Russian intelligence must have known that after 7 years of Nazi terror after the 2014 coup in Kiev there would be very few “pro-Ukrainians” left in Kiev. I tend to lean towards the Russian explanation that the original move towards Kiev was a feint attack is designed to draw AUF defensive forces towards Kiev. People are confused because a feint operation involves actual contact with the enemy, and that is always a dangerous and unpredictable affair. The proof is that it worked, a very large sector of Eastern Ukraine was seized by the DPR, LPR, and Russian forces, with little loss of forces or weapons. There are always some fuck ups.

Posted by: Ed | Mar 1 2023 19:44 utc | 39

I’m thinking Belarus joining the SCO allows Belarus to send a call to China for military help similar to when Kazakhstan called up Russia for military help to avoid an orange coup last year. This would get around Russia calling up China for help, avoiding the embarrassment and also avoid bringing China into the SMO, Belarus so far is not in the SMO. Little ol’ Belarus could send out an SOS to the SCO and the Chinese could send a rapid reaction force there and/or a bunch of air defense forces and equipment freeing up RF’s presence and equipment in Belarus. Not saying it will happen but the paperwork has been filed. Just a thought.
Alexander Lukashenko and Xi Jinping adopted a joint statement on the basic principles for developing an exemplary all-weather and comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries in a new era.
According to the document, Belarus and China:
(They) will deepen cooperation in the defense sphere, in the fight against terrorism, and conduct a preventive fight against color revolutions.
Will jointly support the international system, the core of which is the UN.
They intend to provide mutual support in mitigating the consequences of the application of illegal unilateral coercive measures.
Agreed to strengthen cooperation within the framework of China’s Global Security Initiative. 
Both countries are interested in the soonest possible establishment of peace in Ukraine and in preventing the escalation of the crisis.
In addition, China supports the accelerated entry of Belarus into the SCO.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/35475

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 1 2023 19:57 utc | 41

Off topic:
The Greek transportation Minister who immediately resigned after the horrific train crash last night is one of the few politicians with a sense of honor and duty.
Respect

Posted by: Exile | Mar 1 2023 20:03 utc | 43

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 1 2023 19:57 utc | 41
Dima on Military summary channel also speculated that new Chinese weapon factories will be opened in Belarus. Albeit it could take a lot of time, but Chinese are known for doing things faster than a lot of people expect.
If Belarus simply gets stuffed chock-full of Chinese and Russian air-defense systems, it will render Nato air forces pretty much impotent and threats irrelevant against Belarus.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 1 2023 20:18 utc | 45

🚨🇺🇦🇷🇺 “Ukrainian volunteers running civilian evacuations in Donbas say they’ve stopped going to Bakhmut as there’s now a direct threat of Russian ATGMs along the remaining roads into the city. Hard to see how it can hold out much longer.”

https://t.me/intelslava/45256

Posted by: Down South | Mar 1 2023 20:24 utc | 47

The West has continuous surveillance of the battlefield and its environs from both aircraft and satellites, unless the Russians want to electronically/optically jam these surveillance systems it will be incredibly hard to gain any kind of surprise for a major attack. Also, with the season of mud upon Ukraine any major offensive will be dependent upon the road network which will make it easier for the Ukrainians to inflict very major casualties.
Best to grind down the Ukrainians all along the front line, sucking in the reserves and destroying equipment. When local breakthroughs are gained they can be built upon in a flexible manner that reduces the negatives of continuous Western surveillance. The plan would be that by May (end of the season of mud) the Ukrainian army is very substantially further reduced and some of the many-years hardened fortresses such as Toretsk/New York, Avdeevka, Maryinka etc. have been surrounded/taken, plus of course Bakhmut. Then a much more mobile campaign can be carried out against a much-weakened Ukrainian military beyond the fortresses.
At the same time the Western economies are sinking into recession/depression. With the latest statistics from the US it looks like a stagflation is quite possible (as also in the UK where energy bills will jump 50% in April), driving interest rates up much more and immiserating much of the population. LNG prices may also be well up as a recovering China sucks in a lot more of it.
I do agree with what Scott Ritter is saying that by August/September the Russians need to have significantly defeated the Ukrainian army as Western arms production will have significantly increased by then and more better supplied and trained in the West troops may becoming available to Ukraine. I also see probably another big jump in “mercenaries”, beyond the at least 20,000 Poles plus tens of thousands of others that are already there.

Posted by: Roger | Mar 1 2023 20:28 utc | 49

Land for Peace: Borders aren’t sacred, human lives are.
We should be able to have an honest, rational and civil conversation of Ukraine trading land for peace.
by Dimitri Lascaris
https://dimitrilascaris.org/2023/03/01/borders-arent-sacred-human-lives-are/?fbclid=IwAR0q_3XLpPyphoaKHZ0jLCIHHGfJwJd3Yjx1j9cTJxzM3bzrcUS7ck5PsUI#

Posted by: Irish | Mar 1 2023 20:38 utc | 51

Weeb Union on Artyomovskoy a few minutes ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tpvSA9DnD8

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 1 2023 20:42 utc | 53

“I do agree with what Scott Ritter is saying that by August/September the Russians need to have significantly defeated the Ukrainian army as Western arms production will have significantly increased by then and more better supplied and trained in the West troops may becoming available to Ukraine. I also see probably another big jump in “mercenaries”, beyond the at least 20,000 Poles plus tens of thousands of others that are already there.”
Posted by: Roger | Mar 1 2023 20:28 utc | 49
Don’t know what such expectations (increased production of arms) are based on. When it comes to consumer goods and electronics, EU and USA are almost entirely dependent on Chinese electronic subassemblies except Taiwan for the “best” microprocessors. If US forces EU to give up China trade, the situation for consumer goods will be very catastrophic.
Also a particularly large reason why gas prices in Europe have dropped from their highs in 2022 is because a lot of industrial production shut down. The other reason is of course warm winter. But the supply of gas to Europe will most likely not be sufficient to power significant expansion of any industry, or rather, it will push prices up quickly again.
EU is acting like the Soviet Gosplan, except with significantly more stupid people in charge. We all know that planned economies and stupid people don’t mix well together, as the system is very unforgiving even for smallest miscalculations.
The entire “increasing arm production” is based on making orders from the US. European industry, including military industry is simply getting crushed.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 1 2023 20:57 utc | 55

Posted by: Roger | Mar 1 2023 21:01 utc | 56
May the soil of the Ukrainian steppe be well-fertilized with the blood and guts of those foreign mercs.

Posted by: Chris | Mar 1 2023 21:10 utc | 57

Regarding the A-50 AWACS, even ukrainian sources seem to call bullshit on the story now…

The first satellite images of the Machulishchy military airfield and a Russian Air Force A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft, which was damaged on February 26, were published on the web.
The photo was published by a private American MAXAR company.
As previously reported by Militarny, a Russian A-50 aircraft was damaged in an explosion on February 26 at an airfield 12 kilometers from Minsk.
[…]
The image, taken on the morning of February 28, 2023, showcased an A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft, which is said to have been attacked.
According to this photo, the aircraft did not suffer significant damage: it lacks specific traces that could remain from a fire or explosion.
There are dark spots on the radar dome and wings of the aircraft, but they are not a sign of destruction. Analyzing three photos of the aircraft taken on February 28 at different time intervals, one can notice the gradual “disappearance” of spots, which is the result of moisture evaporation on the surface of the fuselage.
There is also no other visible ​​damage to the airfield and military equipment on it.

Source: https://mil.in.ua/en/news/first-satellite-images-of-attacked-russian-a-50-aew-c-aircraft-published/

Posted by: toxique.negresse | Mar 1 2023 21:17 utc | 59

Big Serge posted a new article today, which goes far to explain the frustrating lack of major progress by the Russian Army since last Summer.
https://open.substack.com/pub/bigserge/p/russo-ukrainian-war-schrodingers?r=63ey&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
He points out that Russian law prevents the use of conscripts outside the borders of Russia unless there is a declaration of war.
All Russian maneuver brigades are currently organized with a mixture of volunteer and conscripted troops. So, Russia is unable to legally deploy the majority of its combat brigades outside Russian territory.
This explains to me why Putin went to all the trouble to conduct referendums in the four oblasts last Septemver when Ukraine was conducting an offensive against Russian positions. The Kremlin needed to get those territories internally recognized as part of Russia in order to have the freedom to deploy full brigades there.
However, since then Russia has been reorganizing and going back to Division sized elements instead of brigades. Thus there has been no major offensive yet.
This also shines some light on recent statements by Putin and other Kremlin outlets to say that NATO is at war with Russia. Without a declaration of war, Russia’s mixed conscript and contract units cannot deploy outside Russian territory.
I think that the Kremlin or the Duma will make either a declaration of war, or a declaration that NATO is at war with Russia in order to remove the shackles on the freedom to maneuver the Army anywhere in the theater. This will precede the real offensive by at least a day. So, I think they are keeping their powder dry on that declaration until the commander tells the President the the Army is ready.
Big Serge’s article really helped me to understand the frustrating apparent lack of action by the Russian military. It all makes sense now.

Posted by: Rhinoskerous | Mar 1 2023 21:20 utc | 61

One addition to my previous comment is that the fact that Russia is going back to larger maneuver unit organization suggests that the Kremlin is preparing to fight NATO. Important as Ukraine is the priority is on surviving and winning the next escalation of WWIII. The year of trial and error in Ukraine has helped Russia to get its military up to speed for a larger engagement. If and when that escalation occurs, NATO will be on the back foot, because they will have the same type of issues in getting their rusty units reorganized to fight a large front war.
Seeing as NATO has sent all their equipment to Ukraine, it is in Russia’s interest that if WWIII must be fought, then fight it when NATOs equipment is maximally depleted before they can restock with new gear.

Posted by: Rhinoskerous | Mar 1 2023 21:26 utc | 63

Big Serge has a new Substack post up… He also, like Simplicius last piece, talks about Russian army organization issues, the BTGs, and how important bureaucracy is in warfare. In essence, he speculates – and that is what it is, but it’s a logical speculation – that the Russian army’s efforts at reorganization have delayed the expected “big arrow offensive” everyone has been talking about, while simultaneously being able to keep the Ukrainians from achieving anything on the battlefield due to attrition of Ukrainian forces and disruption of Ukrainian planning.
Russo-Ukrainian War: Schrodinger’s Offensive
A ramble about force design, Moldova, and a fortress on the steppe
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-schrodingers

Where is the big Russian offensive? This is, at the moment, the million dollar question that inevitably intrudes on any discussion of the war’s current course. It is probably not surprising (to those of us that are familiar with human nature, at least) that this question becomes a Rorschach test in which everybody sees their own prior assumptions about the Russian military.

This line was really good:

I would like to suggest an alternative to all these theories, because what the world needs most right now is more opinions.

His comment here applies to my Substack output as well. 🙂

I apologize for the time which sometimes lapses between articles, but as you will see my writing often metastasizes and these entries become much longer than I initially anticipate, and may technically qualify as novellas based on word count. In any case, I hope that the volume and quality of the content may compensate for the interval, and if not the comment section is open for you to voice your displeasure and anti-Serge polemics.

He then goes on to discuss the operational changes, and then shifts to a example of the situation in Kreminna and Lyman. He says:

The entire front becomes an instructive lesson in the interconnectivity of such operations and the crucial nature of these battles which are frequently dismissed as mere “shaping operations”, fighting over small and insignificant objectives.

He then goes on to discuss to details of why, before proceeding to do the same for Ugledar.

So long as the Ukrainians hold Ugledar, they will hold this salient and have a position from which to threaten Russian rail traffic. If they lose Ugledar, the rollup of this entire salient will be a forgone conclusion. It is thus trivially obvious why this position is a priority for both Russia and Ukraine.

He then goes into detail about the history and situation of Transnistria. He concludes that there is unlikely to be any real movement in that area.
He then quotes a famous line from Vietnam but applies it to the Russian attriting of Ukrainians:

Russian command could, perhaps, paraphrase American Lt. Col. Hal Moore, who famously said of Vietnam: ““By God, they sent us over here to kill Communists and that’s what we’re doing.”

Substitute “Nazis” for Communists and that pretty much sums up the war so far, on the Russian side, and the original phrase sums up the war from the West’s side (even though Russians aren’t Communists any more.)
This is a very good read and I recommend it to everyone here.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 1 2023 21:28 utc | 65

Posted by: Rhinoskerous | Mar 1 2023 21:20 utc | 61
You beat me to it by minutes. 🙂

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 1 2023 21:31 utc | 67

Go to a circus, find clowns.

Posted by: Hermit | Mar 1 2023 21:23 utc | 62
I don’t actually need to go to a circus to find clowns. I’ve got the BBC News and Parliament channels, and for a live experience, the visitors gallery at the House of Commons…

Posted by: West of England Andy | Mar 1 2023 21:33 utc | 69

@shadowbanned | Mar 1 2023 21:18 utc | 60
Are you still being paid to spread FUD? You are so bad at it that you really should have been fired long ago.
And your big mistake of the day is not to realize that even if you or your masters perceive only a false dilemma in a zero-sump world ahead, there is no need for anyone else to be so limited.

Posted by: Hermit | Mar 1 2023 21:34 utc | 71

Here I think I disagree with you Neofeudalfuture, though your point does make sense. But surly Russian intelligence must have known that after 7 years of Nazi terror after the 2014 coup in Kiev there would be very few “pro-Ukrainians” left in Kiev. I tend to lean towards the Russian explanation that the original move towards Kiev was a feint attack is designed to draw AUF defensive forces towards Kiev. People are confused because a feint operation involves actual contact with the enemy, and that is always a dangerous and unpredictable affair. The proof is that it worked, a very large sector of Eastern Ukraine was seized by the DPR, LPR, and Russian forces, with little loss of forces or weapons. There are always some fuck ups.
Posted by: Ed | Mar 1 2023 19:44 utc | 39

There were a lot more collaborators in Kiev, Chernigov and Sumy than usually assumed.
Bucha testifies to that, and Bucha is west of Kiev. Quite possibly you will find them all the way to Zhytomyr at least.
Also, you see how RU has to fight street by street for towns of 10-15,000 now, and Bakhmut, a city of 70,000 pre-war is taking more than six months to take over.
Well, in the north in the beginning cities of substantial size like that were still being surrendered without much of a fight even though the sieges of the regional centers ultimately didn’t succeed.
But Konotop, for example (population 80,000), was surrendered without a fight, and that was with an ultranationalist mayor (so well known for it that he was being profiled in the Western media as an example of Ukraine’s Nazi problem several years before the war, and was mentioned as such even in the first weeks of it, before the censorship fully shut such discussions).
In the end, always keep in mind that most Ukrainians are Russians, and that even a decade ago RU could have just rolled in and would have been greeted with open arms pretty much everywhere outside Galicia. But you see how it is now.
What does that tell us? It tells us that the population of the borderlands has a very weak sense of identity that can be transformed quite easily with properly applied propaganda. Which is precisely what happened in a very short time span in the years prior to the war. Presumably the process can be run in reverse if sufficient force is applied.
Galicia is a special problem though — they are real fanatics there. They lasted through two decades of Polish rule and then 45 years of Soviet rule, and that was not enough to end the problem. Although of course the Soviets adopted a policy of ignoring the problem after the 1960s and the CIA kept instigating it all throughout. But still, there is likely no solution that does not involve ethnic cleansing there.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 1 2023 21:37 utc | 73

@Oblomovka daydream | Mar 1 2023 20:52 utc | 54

For those who are interested in the salt mines of Soledar (the town itself is completely destroyed), how they are looking at the end of February 2023 “>https://www.kp.ru/daily/27472/4727740/

Wonderful link, thank you. In particular I enjoyed the view of the giant hall with machined out walls and roof. You clearly see the regular patterns from the giant mining machines.
The funny thing is very similar patterns is found in giant sandstone caves in China that were discovered in 1992 after having been water filled since long before modern times and their construction is not recorded in any historical documents. Longyou Caves (video by vlad9vt from Kiev, Ukraine).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longyou_Caves

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 1 2023 21:46 utc | 75

@Dan Farrand | Mar 1 2023 21:27 utc | 64
Russia invested a year-and-a-half preparing for the counter to Operation Barbarossa (June 1941-Novembwr 1942) and two years preparing for the entry into the War on Japan 6 months after VE day as agreed at the Tehran Conference in 1943. And we all know how that turned out.
Why should they hasten in Ukraine which has no path to anywhere but surrender, when Russia is preparing for, in the hopes of preempting, a strike by NATO.

Posted by: Hermit | Mar 1 2023 21:47 utc | 77

Old Microbiologist @21–
Outraged provides an extensive breakdown/translation of that Simpilcius essay at the end of the previous Ukie thread that’s worth reading after reading Simplicius.
Having consumed several Simplicius essays, IMO this one being the most vital, “The Changing Face Of War – Future of the Russian SMO”, IMO it’s easier to predict what the end of the SMO will look like based on Russia’s already stated goals. This end differs little from what I’ve already postulated–the artificial construct that is Ukraine will cease to exist with Kiev becoming a city-state like Monaco. The primary reason for this outcome to occur is due to drone technology, particularly the much longer ranges drones will be capable of covering. Recall Putin’s statement that the enemy will need to be pushed out of range of Russian lands. With drones soon to be able to fly 100+km and more, that means no current Ukie territory will be allowed to become NATO, and current NATO lands will face great pressure to demilitarize or suffer the consequences. Yes, clearing Ukieland will take time, and time is what’s needed for new drone and droid tech to appear on the battlefield.
IMO, the hardest part of the endgame will be the imposition of a security treaty based on the principle of indivisible security. To do so now would require regime change and deNATOfication of all Russia’s neighbors and installation of genuinely neutral openminded governments capable of being trusted by Russia so its neighbors don’t feel threatened and Russia feels the same. Yes, there needs to be a carrot for Russia’s neighbors, and that will be economic development and inclusion into the Eurasian Economic Union, leaving behind the dying EU. That’s the only pathway I see possible. If EU/NATO remain intact after Russia’s victory, its welcome to continue to destroy itself through its attachment to the Outlaw US Empire’s Neoliberalism, which is also killing the Empire. IMO, the RoW will side with Russia in its attempt to establish the security regime described above. In thinking about all that, we must keep in mind what’s going to happen with the evolution of drone and droid tech. Some of the tech China currently has–mass drone swarm (many hundreds at one time) deployment, for example–plus rapid advances in AI will change the nature of warfare. Imagine hypersonic jets piloted remotely or completely autonomous non-human infantry. Crewless warships already exist. Yes, at my comment to Simplicius’s essay I bemoaned humanity’s inability to assess the future by not adopting Asimov’s Three Laws of Robotics, which I hope humanity doesn’t rue as IMO it’s too late now as the Outlaw US Empire will never agree to such a humanistic restriction.
So, technology will make the complete removal of Ukraine as a construct mandatory and place demands on neighboring states to alter their ways. Imagine you’re Poland facing the possibility of being invaded by drones and droids that you don’t have if you’re unwilling to trash your Russophobia and evolve. (And yes, if you think Terminator, you’re not alone.)

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 1 2023 21:48 utc | 79

The concern troll gets the first part right – Russia will take all of Ukraine – and the rest wrong…as usual. He ignores the fact that once Russia has all of Ukraine, it automatically counters the NATO strategic weapons in Poland and Romania as the next obvious step, as I’ve said repeatedly here.
What a maroon, as Bug Bunny used to say.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 1 2023 21:34 utc | 70

Counters it how? Sure, S-500s are claimed to be able to shoot down hypersonics. But no, that’s not going to work in practice against a mass salvo, and it presumably already provides defense anyway. And you mentioned Poland and Romania, but nothing about Finland.
Also, the moment nukes will be put on low-flying drones isn’t far off in the future. There are no arms control treaties anymore to stop that, not that it mattered in practice much when they were still there.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 1 2023 21:50 utc | 81

Posted by: Roger | Mar 1 2023 21:32 utc | 68
«How long can the West European elites keep their populations under control as energy prices continue to rise (e.g. the 50% jump in the UK in April), inflation in general keeps rising to outstrip wages, the public sector degrades (the UK is a complete shit show with respect to this)»
The middle class (Orwell’s “outer party”) are much more politically active and important than the lower classes (Orwell’s “proles”), so they are pacified with big property profits redistributed from the lower classes.
As long as property prices and rents keep rising faster than inflation the UK (and USA etc.) middle classes keep writing a blank cheque to the governments “sponsored” by the upper class (Orwell’s “inner party”).
If religion was the opium of the masses, property is the opium of the middle class (and an insightful author pointed out that real estate is the USA’s national religion).

Posted by: Blissex | Mar 1 2023 21:58 utc | 83

Posted by: toxique.negresse | Mar 1 2023 21:36 utc | 72
«Given the utter failure of western „elites“ in dealing with the consequences of the crisis of 2008»
Failure????? Real estate and stick markets prices have been booming in the USA and UK, and so many middle class have enjoyed rising living standard, as share and property investors they have made huge profits, tax-free and work-free.
Beside that the lower classes from which those profits are redistributed don’t matter: no main party is willing to represent “losers”, and the “losers” themselves are not so politically active as a result, at most they do inconsequential riots.
This has become true again:
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=jJj0NgA08SUC&pg=PA244&lpg=PA244
George Orwell, “Review of The Civilization of France by Ernst Robert Curtius”
“In England, a century of strong government has developed what O. Henry called the stern and rugged fear of the police to a point where any public protest seems an indecency.
But in France everyone can remember a certain amount of civil disturbance, and even the workmen in the bistros talk of la revolution – meaning the next revolution, not the last one.
The highly socialised modern mind, which makes a kind of composite god out of the rich, the government, the police and the larger newspapers, has not been developed – at least not yet.”
Still note how even in France the “Gilets Jaunes” protests have have nearly zero consequences, same as the “Occupy Wall Street” in the USA earlier, or the truckers in Canada later. Without a strong political movement they are just episodes of “letting off steam”, easily contained by the government “sponsored” by the “Washington Consensus” elites.

Posted by: Blissex | Mar 1 2023 22:05 utc | 85

@MM | Mar 1 2023 19:43 utc | 38
A government really has to have no hope of surviving or immense trust in their population, or both, to engage in actual Operation Gladio style preparations (which relies far more on training than supplies). The risk of the arms being turned against themselves is far too high and the more authoritarian the government, the more this consideration will weigh on their minds. I don’t think the Ukraine is anywhere near that point, and by the time it is, it will likely be far too late to implement it successfully.

Posted by: Hermit | Mar 1 2023 22:12 utc | 87

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 1 2023 21:48 utc | 79
“with Kiev becoming a city-state like Monaco.”
Uhm, no. Why?
“IMO, the hardest part of the endgame will be the imposition of a security treaty based on the principle of indivisible security. To do so now would require regime change and deNATOfication of all Russia’s neighbors and installation of genuinely neutral openminded governments capable of being trusted by Russia so its neighbors don’t feel threatened and Russia feels the same.”
I don’t expect Russia to “impose” the security treaties. Best Russia can expect is to build a new strategic arms-based “Wall” around the country that specifically counters each enemy nation’s Western strategic weapons. MAD 2.0. Of course, if the European West continues to fall apart economically, perhaps your vision will occur. But I suspect that will require revolutions in each of the European countries – as you say – which could happen and could happen suddenly. More likely it will take a generation.
“(And yes, if you think Terminator, you’re not alone.)”
We’re still far away from the level of AI that can produce a Terminator. Absent some breakthrough in understanding brain handling of concepts, we’re looking at decades away. The current AI stuff being hyped is nothing more than a language processing system backed by a vast Internet-trained database. Not even remotely the same as human conceptual processing.
As an aside, the big problem with the Terminator movies is that they underestimated what an Ai-controlled mobile gun platform could do and thus humans had some chance whereas in reality humans would have no chance at all, as such gun platforms can not miss absent wildly ballistic movement on the part of the target. If you watch the movies (and the TV show) the Terminators constantly miss their targets which could not occur in real life. Not to mention they would carry heavier weapons than Ah-Nuld’s “.45 long-slide with laser sighting.”
I followed Josh Friedman’s “Terminator – The Sarah Connor Chronicles” religiously during its slightly less than two-year-run. The smartest thing Friedman did was cast Summer Glau as a female Terminator. That concept was the one thing that got me back into watching television. It could have been an awesome exploration of human-AI relations (including “sexual”.) Then he fucked it up completely in season two. Oh, well.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 1 2023 22:18 utc | 89

For those missing GeromanAT’s maps they are now being copied from his Telegram account into this Twitter account https://twitter.com/chaxx9966

Posted by: JohninMK | Mar 1 2023 22:21 utc | 91

Multiple news aggregators (who generally get their news from UA/RU telegrams) are reporting there may be a mutiny underway from Ukrainian troops in Bakmhut.
Would take this with a pinch of salt and treat with caution as a rumor until further confirmed.

Posted by: tradewinds | Mar 1 2023 22:24 utc | 93

On Agriculture: Support for the Hudson/Desai piece I noted above – i.e. takeover of Ukrainian assets by West Financial Oligarchs (with Zelenski regime OK)
War and Theft: The Takeover of Ukraine’s Agricultural Land, exposes the financial interests and the dynamics at play leading to further concentration of land and finance.
The total amount of land controlled by oligarchs, corrupt individuals, and large agribusinesses is over nine million hectares — exceeding 28 percent of Ukraine’s arable land. The largest landholders are a mix of Ukrainian oligarchs and foreign interests — mostly European and North American as well as the sovereign fund of Saudi Arabia. Prominent US pension funds, foundations, and university endowments are invested through NCH Capital, a US-based private equity fund.
Several agribusinesses, still largely controlled by oligarchs, have opened up to Western banks and investment funds — including prominent ones such as Kopernik, BNP, or Vanguard — who now control part of their shares. Most of the large landholders are substantially indebted to Western funds and institutions, notably the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the World Bank.
Western financing to Ukraine in recent years has been tied to a drastic structural adjustment program that has required austerity and privatization measures, including the creation of a land market for the sale of agricultural land. President Zelenskyy put the land reform into law in 2020 against the will of the vast majority of the population who feared it would exacerbate corruption and reinforce control by powerful interests in the agricultural sector. Findings of the report concur with these concerns. While large landholders are securing massive financing from Western financial institutions, Ukrainian farmers — essential for ensuring domestic food supply — receive virtually no support. With the land market in place, amidst high economic stress and war, this difference of treatment will lead to more land consolidation by large agribusinesses.
The report also sounds the alarm that Ukraine’s crippling debt is being used as a leverage by the financial institutions to drive post-war reconstruction towards further privatization and liberalization reforms in several sectors, including agriculture. [READ ON]
https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/war-theft-takeover-ukraine-agricultural-land

Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 1 2023 22:30 utc | 95

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-seeks-allies-backing-possible-china-sanctions-over-ukraine-war-sources-2023-03-01/
They think they rule the world.
When they will realize they don’t, it will be too late…

Posted by: Saracen’s Head | Mar 1 2023 22:34 utc | 97

Interesting times.
The fall of Bakhmut Nazo Country 404 fortress city is only days away. The DPR/Wagner troops competed with one another. To see who & whom could take the last open road to the west.
Sadly, not even the mighty Europa NAZO has the AT ready to deploy/in current storage equipment to stop an initial onslaught of 3000 tanks. Plus the second wave of 3000 refurbished/upgraded from storage. A steam roller tactic that was last used in 1944 on all roads leading to Berlun. Streaming westward all the way to the Europa current set in the concrete redline eastern border zone.
The supplies reaching the beleaguered country 404 cannon fodder or conscripted 65+-year-old pensioners. Are barely adequate feed and resupply munitions to a mere 10% of the current AFU survivors. Unable to retreat from the town. Since inbound ambulances have limited carrying capacity.
The of Bakhmut. leaves all roads wide open to the Europa eastern border zone.
In other news “Europa Peace in Our Time” movement is doubling in size daily. Placing all current Europa’s corrupt leadership on a fast track to early and permanent forced retirement from politics. Or a resident term of life sentence to a refurbished “Colditz/Spandau Prison” for assorted war crimes?

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Mar 1 2023 22:36 utc | 99