Ukraine - Media Start To Acknowledge Reality
Finally some truth about the real state of the Ukrainian military is sneaking into main stream media. It is as bad, still not fully disclosed, as we have described it again and again.
As the Washington Post provides:
Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow
I'll leave out the propaganda bits and go for the factual beef. The quotes are long but needed to grasp the depth of horrible situation.
The opening paragraph:
The quality of Ukraine’s military force, once considered a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyiv’s readiness to mount a much-anticipated spring offensive.
That spring offensive is as likely to happen as the announced relief campaign to unblock Bakhmut. The later is bogged down in mud which will only become worse over the next few weeks.
The spring campaign will be made up of green recruits which will use a wild mix of weapons they are not familiar with. Unless there are some 'western' surprises I see no way how it can overwhelm the well prepared Russian defense lines.
Back to the piece:
[Á]n influx of inexperienced draftees, brought in to plug the losses, has changed the profile of the Ukrainian force, which is also suffering from basic shortages of ammunition, including artillery shells and mortar bombs, according to military personnel in the field.“The most valuable thing in war is combat experience,” said a battalion commander in the 46th Air Assault Brigade, who is being identified only by his call sign, Kupol, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol. “A soldier who has survived six months of combat and a soldier who came from a firing range are two different soldiers. It’s heaven and earth.”
“And there are only a few soldiers with combat experience,” Kupol added. “Unfortunately, they are all already dead or wounded.”
Such grim assessments have spread a palpable, if mostly unspoken, pessimism from the front lines to the corridors of power in Kyiv, the capital.
Ukrainian losses, estimated to be nearer to 200,000 than to 100,000 dead with even more wounded, are especially felt at the lower command level. One can not just take a salesman or teacher from the street and put them into a junior command role.
Kupol said he was speaking out in hopes of securing better training for Ukrainian forces from Washington and that he hopes Ukrainian troops being held back for a coming counteroffensive will have more success than the inexperienced soldiers now manning the front under his command.“There’s always belief in a miracle,” he said. “Either it will be a massacre and corpses or it’s going to be a professional counteroffensive. There are two options. There will be a counteroffensive either way.”
It indeed will need a miracle for the counteroffensive to become anything but a massacre.
One senior Ukrainian government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid, called the number of tanks promised by the West a “symbolic” amount. Others privately voiced pessimism that promised supplies would even reach the battlefield in time.“If you have more resources, you more actively attack,” the senior official said. “If you have fewer resources, you defend more. We’re going to defend. That’s why if you ask me personally, I don’t believe in a big counteroffensive for us. I’d like to believe in it, but I’m looking at the resources and asking, ‘With what?’ Maybe we’ll have some localized breakthroughs.”
“We don’t have the people or weapons,” the senior official added. “And you know the ratio: When you’re on the offensive, you lose twice or three times as many people. We can’t afford to lose that many people.”
The U.S. is not going to ask if the "Ukraine can afford the losses". It will push for a large attack which will have little chance to even get out of its preparation phase.
Kupol, who consented to having his photograph taken and said he understood he could face personal blowback for giving a frank assessment, described going to battle with newly drafted soldiers who had never thrown a grenade, who readily abandoned their positions under fire and who lacked confidence in handling firearms.His unit withdrew from Soledar in eastern Ukraine in the winter after being surrounded by Russian forces who later captured the city. Kupol recalled how hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers in units fighting alongside his battalion simply abandoned their positions, even as fighters for Russia’s Wagner mercenary group pressed ahead.
After a year of war, Kupol, a lieutenant colonel, said his battalion is unrecognizable. Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops.
“I get 100 new soldiers,” Kupol said. “They don’t give me any time to prepare them. They say, ‘Take them into the battle.’ They just drop everything and run. That’s it. Do you understand why? Because the soldier doesn’t shoot. I ask him why, and he says, ‘I’m afraid of the sound of the shot.’ And for some reason, he has never thrown a grenade. … We need NATO instructors in all our training centers, and our instructors need to be sent over there into the trenches. Because they failed in their task.”
He described severe ammunition shortages, including a lack of simple mortar bombs and grenades for U.S.-made MK 19s.
...
“You’re on the front line,” Kupol said. “They’re coming toward you, and there’s nothing to shoot with.”Kupol said Kyiv needed to focus on better preparing new troops in a systematic way. “It’s like all we do is give interviews and tell people that we’ve already won, just a little bit further away, two weeks, and we’ll win,” he said.
Yes, Kiev, helped by 'western' media, is speaking of a victory that is unlikely to ever come. The view from the field is way different:
Dmytro, a Ukrainian soldier whom The Post is identifying only by first name for security reasons, described many of the same conditions. Some of the less-experienced troops serving at his position with the 36th Marine Brigade in the Donetsk region “are afraid to leave the trenches,” he said. Shelling is so intense at times, he said, that one soldier will have a panic attack, then “others catch it.”
The first time he saw fellow soldiers very shaken, Dmytro said, he tried to talk them through the reality of the risks. The next time, he said, they “just ran from the position.”
“I don’t blame them,” he said. “They were so confused.”
Yes, shell shock is real. Being under artillery fire is terrifying. Especially when you are a newbie, sit in a ditch without armor and with no way to respond to it.
Russian artillery supremacy is why Ukrainian losses are a multiple of those on the Russian side. But even if foot soldiers are available and well trained there is nothing that can make up for the loss of an army's backbone:
Ukraine has lost many of its junior officers who received U.S. training over the past nine years, eroding a corps of leaders who helped distinguish the Ukrainians from their Russian enemies at the start of the invasion, the Ukrainian official said. Now, the official said, those forces must be replaced. “A lot of them are killed,” the official said.
Replaced with what? It takes years to train a master sergeant or captain. These positions require experience in the field. No civilian training can replace that. Three week courses, run by 'western' officers with no real war experience, will not be able to make up for this:
Even with new equipment and training, U.S. military officials consider Ukraine’s force insufficient to attack all along the giant front, where Russia has erected substantive defenses, so troops are being trained to probe for weak points that allow them to break through with tanks and armored vehicles.
There will be no weak points. Or maybe there will be some, intentionally left open by the Russians, to draw the Ukrainian 'counterattack' in to then entrap it in one big cauldron.
It is over for the Ukraine. The Russian forces are enveloping Ukrainian units in several small cauldrons. Bakhmut is only one of them. South of it is the New York agglomeration which will become another one. Anviivka, further south, is also in big trouble and may even become the first of the three to fall.
bigger
Even the New York Times has started to notice it:
From Kupiansk in the north to Avdiivka in the south, through Bakhmut, Lyman and dozens of towns in between, Russian forces are attacking along a 160-mile arc in eastern Ukraine in an intensifying struggle for tactical advantage before possible spring offensives. Heavy fighting was reported on Monday in and around Avdiivka, a town that has been on the front lines for much of the past year and in recent days has once again become a focal point of combat.
...
In Bakhmut, where the Wagner private military company has seized control of the eastern side of the city, brutal combat is taking place in the streets, the blasted remains of buildings and deep underground in the warrens of mines, according to Russian military bloggers.
...
In Kupiansk and surrounding villages, Russia has stepped up shelling and probing ground assaults, and Ukraine has ordered civilians to leave. Russian shelling intensified in Lyman and other towns, as well. According to the Ukrainian military, Russian forces make more than 100 attempts each day to break through their lines.With few people or intact buildings, the most hotly contested places have little left to offer beyond control of roads and railways that the Kremlin sees as important to its goal of seizing the entire eastern region known as the Donbas. The assaults may also yield better positioning for the next attack, intelligence about the other side’s positions and propaganda value.
Not mention by the NYT, but most important is that the Russian forces in all these attacks are destroying the Ukrainian army.
In a few weeks, after those three cauldrons have collapsed, the Ukrainian army will be on the run. It will be summer by then and the mud will have dried up. The Russian forces will then become more mobile which may even allow for wider 'big arrow' moves.
The only way for the Ukrainian army to counter those moves will be the use of the forces it currently prepares for a 'counteroffensive' as defense formations.
But even that will only give it another three month or so before the inevitable collapse arrives.
Posted by b on March 14, 2023 at 10:19 UTC | Permalink
next page »This is the situation after almost a decade of NATO training and preparation ?
Ukraine had a huge army in terms of manpower and equipment in Feb 2022. It had dug in and spent 8 years shelling Donetsk and building concrete fortifications and strongholds. It had NATO instructors and NATO satellite and AWACS feeds.
How did Ukraine get into such a mess ?
Did it permit too many Ukrainian men to leave Ukraine ? How did a Ukrainian in military uniform enter a bar in Frankfurt quite so provocatively that the Chechen bouncer beat him up ? Did he get lost on the way from the front ?
Why is Poroschenko Junior in London and not recalled to fight ?
Just what has Ukraine been doing with a) money. b) manpower c) equipment. ------even before NATO went all Santa and shipped replacements for all the stuff they had "lost"
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Mar 14 2023 10:33 utc | 2
Thanks for the update b.
I appreciate reading as many points of view as I can so I avoid (to the extent possible) being stuck in an information bubble.
Posted by: Thomas Sharpe | Mar 14 2023 10:45 utc | 3
The Ukranian War machine & Government may lose their source of financing overnight anytime within the next 3 months if the US petro $ collapses which is looking increasingly likely (post Saudi-Iran deal) because current crop of US Bank failures is caused by increases in interest rates crashing the value of existing ´´assets´´ held as investments in the WEST´s Finance markets ie US Treasury Bills and Corporate Bonds. A ½% interest rate bond with 9 years left to run when market interest rates are 4% will have lost 3.5% value compounded over the 9 years which is a lot!! USA cannot finance anything new if the increasingly likely default on $31 trillion Treasuries happens with a FED Central Bank Digital Currency ready to roll out for domestic use NATO will be unfunded and Euro will face the same pressures IF interest rates rise in Europe similarly.
Posted by: Gatt | Mar 14 2023 10:56 utc | 4
I m surprised by the fact no one mentions anywhere quality of the top leadership in China&Russia compared to what west has.
Putin believed in th ussr and was somewhat successful within it and then the world he knew crumbled around him and he was left with nothing.
Xi had it worse, brought up as the eldest som of one of the ruling elite cloistered within privilege to be the successor to his father and bam everything crumbled he was threatened with death every other day his sister committing suicide and he was sent to countryside living in caves.
Both of these men lost everything yet fought their way to the top.
This speaks of hard men with immense capabilities.
West on the other hand is led by a man going through cognitive decline adviced by soft chickenhawks out to enrich themselves.
And his fellow partners in crime r not that better.
Also they were intimately knowledgeable about the struggles of the common men unlike most of the leadership of west.
In a confrontation better leadership might prevail as long as they r not faced with overwhelming odds and west does not have overwhelming advantage.
Posted by: A.z | Mar 14 2023 11:17 utc | 5
Russian Federation can drag this SMO for years without stopping at it's own preferable pace. Syrian campaign established a new precedent of prolonged warfare abroad, to Russian civilian population, and people are got used to it. Economy is working in dual mode since. Support for government is overwhelming. Currently approx ten thousands of T-62 tanks are getting withdrawn from storage for modernization and redeployment, along some of the late T-90. It looks like RU is not in a hurry at all
Posted by: Alex Vadim | Mar 14 2023 11:24 utc | 6
Brought to Ukraine by the geniuses who failed in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. As we're currently seeing, societies where everything is failing and no one and nothing is allowed to fail, stand no chance against dirigistic Eurasian powers. Exceptionals excel at PR and propaganda. Now even their propaganda's yielding diminishing returns... Bring back brutish MAGA and it's a wrap.
Posted by: Aldebaran | Mar 14 2023 11:24 utc | 7
Everything rides on Ukraine holding Bakhmut (it won't) because there is no defensive line behind it for the Ukrainians to fall back to. On top of that is the very real possibility that Western aid will evaporate quickly, if not overnight, when Bakhmut falls as it will be virtually impossible to conceal the reality that Ukraine cannot win this war from even the most ignorant of troglodytes.
Posted by: Monos | Mar 14 2023 11:25 utc | 8
It is time for Zelensky and Nato to come to their senses and negotiate for peace - if Russia would be willing to. Suppose UA holds a position against Russian attack, where does it end, they can only hope to hold it for so long, then what? Suppose they break through, or even manage to regain some territory, then what? There is no way all territory in Donbass will be regained, so it may be better to face reality now and hope to save some young men to become the backbone of a recovering, rebuilding Ukraine.
Posted by: Luke | Mar 14 2023 11:26 utc | 9
“It’s like all we do is give interviews and tell people that we’ve already won, just a little bit further away, two weeks, and we’ll win,” he said.
Well, the Ukrainians are learning how to think in the Big Gay Empire they are fighting for. A man in a dress is a “woman.” A horde of uneducated low-IQ sub-Saharans is “vibrant diversity.” And sending your young men into a meat grinder to die for no reason is “victory”.
Posted by: Grey | Mar 14 2023 11:30 utc | 10
How will the outcome of this war affect the call on derivatives..? One thing for sure the size of the market available to the west has decreased by the size increase of the market of the Eastern block nations. Inflation will likely destroy much of the small man's competitive financial infrastructure as the sub giant players move back from market based paper to hard physical assets. but I cannot see how holders of derivatives are going to survive the ups and downs of inflation and interest rates and the write offs of the loans and gifts to Ukraine are going to have to have some impact somewhere?
Posted by: snake | Mar 14 2023 11:39 utc | 12
I thought the "Wests" jewed-up Colonial Christians were joking when they persuaded their Ukraine puppet govt that it could win a hot war with Russia. They appeared to be oblivious to the fact that Russia can not afford to lose this war. Fortunately for Putin it turns out that the Colonial Christians were joking - as their half-assed and tardy "support" has now confirmed.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Mar 14 2023 11:46 utc | 13
Just posting for reference the analysis by Readovka on western alleged heavy equipment to Ukraine.
-1034 pieces of military equipment, of which:
-currently transferred 14 armored combat vehicles, 90 infantry fighting vehicles, 100 armored personal carriers, 34 tanks
-By end of spring, Kiev should have 562 of aforementioned, in addition 381 armored vehicles, 42 self propelled artillery
-Ukraine is expecting 60 tanks from France, stretched out over several months
-100 tanks from Germany, of which 20 this year and 80 in 2024
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/24428
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 14 2023 11:46 utc | 14
I read the other day that the Yanks are sending more weapons to Ukraine - a couple of Bronze Age spears and a Stone Age axe. At least those are weapons people can use with limited training. Though, you wouldn’t want to come up against guys trained on them
Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Mar 14 2023 11:50 utc | 15
A horde of uneducated low-IQ sub-Saharans is “vibrant diversity.” And sending your young men into a meat grinder to die for no reason is “victory”.
Posted by: Grey | Mar 14 2023 11:30 utc | 10
Very racist comment!!! Sub Saharans were high IQ progressive civilizations long before your types
Posted by: sal | Mar 14 2023 11:51 utc | 16
Xi Jinping is meeting Putin as well as Zelensky next week.
Zelensky is going to get an offer he can't refuse.
Wonder if he'll take it. It may so happen the conflict would end by a fortnight with a peace treaty.
That would be the bombshell of the year if it happens and it's only March.
G7 will go bonkers. Nuland will experience cardiac arrest as well as a stroke. Propaganda won't save the neocons especially when US banks are facing like dominos. (NY signature bank fell, look it up).
Let's see what happens.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Mar 14 2023 12:01 utc | 17
Xi Jinping is meeting Putin as well as Zelensky next week.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Mar 14 2023 12:01 utc | 16
---
When asked directly about the Zelensky talk the Chinese Foreign Ministry demurred.
Posted by: too scents | Mar 14 2023 12:07 utc | 18
The VC guerrilla in Vietnam didn´t receive training and didn´t run; maybe because they were truly fighting for their country.
Posted by: Viktor K | Mar 14 2023 12:11 utc | 19
Thank you b.
TL&DR: AFU has entered an unsustainable irrecoverable death spiral, past tense ...
Have been harping on this since Nov. The AFU as a combat effective & capable combined-arms Army ceased to be ~7-8 months ago. Everything since is struggling against predestination re the outcome. They've recently reached the point where they cannot runup up casualty replacements quicker than they are incurred even using press-ganged Volksturm with zero training.
A few hours, a day, 3 days, 3-4 weeks, does not a combat capable soldier make, especially in true high-intensity combat.
The AFU NCO/Officer cadre corps was shattered, gutted long ago. It cannot be reconstituted under current wartime conditions.
And here is the kicker, at the same time RF forces experience a concurrent opposite effect. Casualties yes, but at such a low rate re the entire manpower pool available that RF units are now progressively more competent & combat capable and with hardened veterans & NCOs/Officers that have been tested, tempered, and then rotated out of the line. A percentage of NCOs/Officers & specialists as well as promising/capable ranker soldiers, are continually drawn from experienced units and assigned to posts in green formations to rapidly pass on actual combat 'lessons learned' and provide stiffening, a core backbone to the units, so when they rotate into the line they are at least satisfactory & even more quickly tempered.
US/NATO is being forced to confront the disconcerting reality of a very formidable RF Army that is only getting more dangerous re the combat power & force multiplier re combat capability, battlefield experience & actual veteran status day by day. Both sides benefit from Command/Comms/Tactical/Technical/etc insights & lessons learned, only one Force is transitioning to Veteran high-intensity combined-arms combat status, and elements to Elite, as a nation State Tier 1 military.
The only reason AFU have stayed in the fight so far is because low quality troops can survive for a time due the combat power & benefit of static defense in heavily developed interlocking hardened fortified entrenchments built up & enhanced over very many years.
Once the hasty weak final defensive lines are breached, the AFU will, inevitably if conflict continues, be forced to conduct maneuver combined-arms warfare, without the materiel nor extant competency nor capability to do so ...
IMV AFU has entered a death spiral since Dec'22/Jan'23 re manpower/materiel/logistics, let alone a virtually non-extant cadre corps. Human sandbags and wholly insufficient inadequate western frankenstien mix of salvaged derelict & obsolete discards that do not even begin to touch the sides of the massive materiel losses AFU has incurred, daily, for over a year, combined with the above ...
The combat power & capability & the ability to competently exercise & apply it of each force (RF v AFU) has been exponentially accelerating from Feb24'23, in inverse proportion to one another.
Re-posted re effects consequence of ignoring extended combat without periodic line rotation, which by the way, said effects are proportionally magnified/compounded in relation to degree of insufficient/inadequate training & duration of non combat service experience, and yet again re inadequate/incapable cadre corps, Junior NCOs/Officers.
...
Not propaganda, very far from trivial consequences ... in majority of cases re extended exposure, lifelong.
It is why competent modern Armies seek to limit a units time on the Line, especially so re high-intensity conflict, to a maximum continuous 60 days, otherwise...
As stated before, AFU holds brigades in the line for over five months or until bled-white, & if necessary enforced by OUN-B Nazi 'Blocking Detachments'.
Hence non-wounded & recoverable WIA, become additional irrecoverable WIA, non-combat-effective, regardless ... add the poor bustards to extant AFU casualty counts .
AFU in unsustainable casualties replacement JIT, death spiral ...
Traumatic stress, an invisible wound, hobbles Ukrainian soldiers - The Washington Post, Mar10'23
Summarized commentary:
Post-traumatic stress disorder(PTS), panic and suicides - contrary to the propaganda statements of Kyiv, a real psycho-pandemic has begun in Ukraine. The Armed Forces of Ukraine classify information on the statistics of unauthorized abandonment of units and desertion, journalists of The Washington Post write.However, according to the American publication, the problem of demoralization of Ukrainian militants is massive and already irreversible.
— Ukrainian soldiers experience severe symptoms of psychological stress, including nightmares, poor sleep, guilt, anxiety and panic attacks, according to interviews with military personnel across Ukraine and their psychologists. Some soldiers turned their weapons against themselves, committing suicide. <…> This problem is debilitating, widespread and excruciatingly difficult to treat in a country that - even far from the battlefields - is under constant threat of attack.
Although often invisible, widespread fatigue and mental trauma among soldiers is another difficult challenge for the Ukrainian military to face.
Referring to sources among officers, journalists note that the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are increasingly leaving their positions or surrendering to the Russian army. And those who are injured in military hospitals are trying to retreat from medical institutions, fearing to be on the Russian front again.
According to the publication, the spread of suicides, acute panic attacks, unauthorized abandonment of combat units is only part of the big problem of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine abandon weapons and flee to the Carpathians - or seek asylum in Poland and the Czech Republic, where Ukrainian refugee communities exist.
Peace
@ Viktor K | Mar 14 2023 12:11 utc | 18
The VC guerrilla in Vietnam didn´t receive training ...
Absolute utter falsehood. Au contraire.
It does seem that the west has supplied a token quantity of heavy arms in preparation for supposed offensive. Partly because that is almost the best they can do at this time, but also because they (some of them) see where this is headed. Only thing keeping it going with any conviction is the need by some to do rear guard action of prior stupid and callous decisions. What difference a few more bodies at this point - just throw them on the pile. What matters is that they continue to we welcomed and esteem at cocktail parties.
It will be up to the Ukers to say: enough.
Posted by: jared | Mar 14 2023 12:19 utc | 22
Paul Hart @No.2 excellent 3 questions which TPTB never ask. Billions have been pored into Ukraine but zero to show for it. Now the clown dictator is asking the collective West to stump $38bn to plug it's budget deficit. I suggest the penis piano player to transfer his offshore billions to the Ukraine Govt and sell his 25 luxury mansions to put back into Ukraine what he stole from it.
Posted by: Jo Dominich | Mar 14 2023 12:31 utc | 23
A Russian perspective + analysis from the Wall Street Journal reporting on the battle of Bakhmut/Artemovsk https://www.kp.ru/daily/27476/4732869/
The West cannot explain the huge losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Artemovsk. And afraid of the truth
WSJ spoke about the heavy losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Artemovsk
Immediately, several leading publications of the Western countries suddenly became concerned about the large losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Artemivsk (the Ukrainian name is Bakhmut). The Wall Street Journal conducted its analytical investigation and found out the reasons for a much larger phenomenon - the general failure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Bakhmut. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to American journalists, are suffering defeats and suffering huge losses for the reason that they cannot bring ammunition and replenishment, as well as evacuate the wounded due to spring mud, which turned the land in the combat zone into muddy mud - a slurry of water and mud , through which only caterpillar vehicles can pass, and wheeled vehicles get stuck tightly, only driving into this mulyaku. Therefore, the wounded, without waiting for medical care and operations, die because of this.
No, we, of course, remember how Napoleon's army, in tatters and women's fur coats, put on over holey trousers, dumped into their homes. Later, according to Western historians, it was not the Red Army that delivered the decisive blow to the Nazis, but the notorious "General Frost". Now, the culprit of the misfortunes and misfortunes of the Ukrainian army has been declared "General Gryaz" [General Mud].
The web is full of videos, like wheeled vehicles, the pride of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Western manufacturers turns into an absolutely helpless and motionless box, from which the soldiers get off and continue their journey on foot, moving in this knee-deep liquid mud. Even unpretentious armored personnel carriers get stuck, not like ordinary trucks and ambulances. There are other videos of how the Armed Forces of Ukraine go on tracked infantry fighting vehicles, but they go exactly to Bakhmut, and not from it.
But for some reason, all these analysts for some reason forget that, on the other hand, in the Russian trenches and in our positions there is exactly the same mule, and no less dirt. Only the Russian army is not yet on the defensive, but is advancing, which, in the conditions of the kingdom of Mulyaki, creates additional difficulties for advancement. And additional difficulties - this is too mild an expression to describe what it is like in an offensive battle half a pound of mud on each leg. When just moving forward by moving your legs is already difficult. And you still have to shoot, storm, take cover from enemy fire, etc. so do not sin on the dirt and the weather.
In fact, the heavy losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Artemovsk, and not only there, are caused by only two reasons - the effectiveness of our soldiers and the direct command of their troops by the commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is not dirt that drives new recruits to Bakhmut for slaughter, but generals Syrsky and Zaluzhny and the President (for now) of Ukraine Zelensky. It was General Syrsky who issued an official order so that slightly wounded soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine would not be evacuated to the rear to hospitals or at least medical battalions, but would return to service after dressings and minor operations. What happens to a hastily patched wound in the mud? That's right, a bandage applied to blood poisoning is not a hindrance at all. And this is just one of the examples. And there are not even hundreds of them. The Ukrainian command is not at all concerned with the issues of saving the Ukrainians directly. Back in autumn, caring volunteers noted
The Ukrainian command near Artemovsk had two options - to withdraw troops or to give an order to surrender in order to save lives. But this does not suit either the generals or Zelensky. So, expand the fields for cemeteries. True, not now, but when it dries.
By the way, the American magazine American Thinker wrote here that the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine exceed 250 thousand people. Not near Bakhmut, no, but from the beginning of the NWO. And this figure is only irretrievable, that is, killed. Americans, by and large, have no reason to lie. They don't care that Ukraine and Ukrainians exist, that they don't exist. And it is very likely that the leadership of Ukraine, too. And this ratio does not depend on the state of the soil.
Alexander GRISHIN
Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Mar 14 2023 12:32 utc | 24
I find that I had to make up a term that I call the "immediacy bias". I'm on topic here just stay with me.
What I mean by this is that we tend to expect events to happen sooner and they typically do. This applies broadly but also within geopolitics.
A perfect example of this has been the wait for a series of winter, spring, big arrow or any offensive as we wait for one side or another to do something damn it! As if it wasn't already horror enough.
Keeping all this in mind I opined that it (the offensive) may possibly happen in April but it's just as likely to occur in summer.
I'm going to have to dig up what it (the term "immediacy bias") is called. If we are talking biases, I think the influence is close to that of confirmation bias.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Mar 14 2023 12:36 utc | 25
Monos @ 8
While I am basically in agreement I believe you are vastly underestimating troglodytes. I am here in US where most - and definitely nearly all military types - do not believe US really lost in Vietnam. Anyway there was a stab in the back that kept us from total victory. Iraq, Libya, Syria are all glorious victories. The US has the greatest military machine the world has ever seen and it is simply inconceivable that Russia might defeat us. The troglodytes will never admit defeat. If RF went to the English Channel and Putin repeated Alexanders march through Paris they will never admit defeat.
Posted by: oldhippie | Mar 14 2023 12:44 utc | 27
It seems that there is going to have to be an "unconditional surrender" by the Ukrainians (or the USofA or NATO or Poland or the mercenaries - whoever is fighting against Russia) and the Russians will dictate the terms. Will we get denazification and demilitarization? I would bet we will.
Will the Ukraine end up at a "rump" state? Neutral? No NATO? No army? No access to the Black Sea or the Sea of Azov? I hope so!!
To see the resurgence of the Nazi insignia and hear the accolades for Banderas has been frightening.
IMO, most of the inhabitants of this area have been complicit since 2014 in attacking and killing those members of their country in the eastern section because they spoke more Russian than the Ukrainian dialect and those in charge want (present tense) to maintain the purity of their blood or something. So it is good that the population has diminished both from emigration and the war because those people have been propagandized to the max (like us here in the USofA - ha!) to hate Russians.
It has been extremely upsetting for me to watch live online people being shot dead and blown up. It is terrible. I have not lived this and never ever want to do so.
So, to me, this has to end without compromise and with as much certainty as possible that this US inspired killing event will not happen again in my lifetime anyway.
Posted by: a lurking reader | Mar 14 2023 12:47 utc | 28
“Bogged down (spelling)
Posted by: Susan | Mar 14 2023 11:34 utc | 11”
Watch out, Susan, someone from Coventry is likely to tell you that “bugged down” is Cockney rhyming slang for “like a clown” and get annoyed that you didn’t already know.
Posted by: Dalit | Mar 14 2023 12:49 utc | 29
FYI, regarding the other side of the coin, massive materiel losses of the AFU since Feb24'22 & what would be required to merely return them to their parlous state as @ Dec'22, or ongoing.
Materiel losses cannot be replaced by propaganda or rhetoric & the west has zero stocks/reserves nor any capacity to sustain Ukraine re materiel losses/ordnance, let alone the political will to do so. If you doubt the claimed losses reported by RF MOD, halve them, it matters not.
Post, March 05, 2023, Ukraine Open Thread 2023-55
Theater Command basic & negligible Intelligence Staff work & Analysis ...TL&DR AFU is in a Hospice, approaching extended life support ... being abandoned by supposed family & friends (US/NATO/EU) ...
Note: MOD Clobber List, averaged over the past 373 days of the SMO, so far (As @ Mar5'23), per day(24hrs). Updated averages as @ Mar03'23 vs Dec23'22. Averages probable slightly lower due diminishing systems actually available to be targeted/engaged for destruction:
21.8 (22.5 @ Dec22) tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
(Equivalent of over 2 AFU Tank/Mech Battalions 'DESTROYED' (100%) every three days)2.8 (2.9 @ Dec22) multiple rocket launcher combat vehicles,
(Equivalent of over 1 AFU MBRLS Batteries 'DESTROYED' (100%) every two days)11.4 (11.6 @ Dec22) field artillery, guns and mortars,
(Equivalent of over 2 AFU Artillery Batteries 'DESTROYED' (100%) every day) andHence, for example, US/NATO would need to manufacture & promptly supply, new production:
Over ~5,183 Artillery & MBRLS systems(@ up to ~$8M+ per unit($26,523+ Billion) over next 12 months, at a sustained rated of ~12/day deliverable, being two full Artillery Batteries+ delivered to FEBA every 24 hours, and
Over ~7,957 AFVs (@ from ~$3M+ up to ~$10M+ per unit($42,437+ Billion) over next 12 months, at a sustained rated of ~22/day deliverable, being two full Tank/Mech Battalions delivered to FEBA every 72 hours.
Merely for AFU to continue in its current derelict state (Crew-served platforms/systems/vehicles only).
...
Further explanatory detail & data at above MoA internal link.
Re: Posted by: jared | Mar 14 2023 12:19 utc | 21
It will be up to the Ukers to say: enough.
Well - that certainly won't happen.
If Zelensky tries to seek a peace agreement he will be deposed and removed from power.
Not sure why he is bothering to meet with Xi Jinping given he is not interested in any peace negotiations and even if he were - he would be removed/killed within days.
This war must go on - and it will - it still has 1-2 years to go at least.
Posted by: Julian | Mar 14 2023 13:03 utc | 31
Posted by: A.z | Mar 14 2023 11:17 utc | 5
Nailed it
Thanks b
Posted by: jo6pac | Mar 14 2023 13:07 utc | 32
Outraged | Mar 14 2023 12:12 utc | 19
Peace
Heartbreaking inhumanity. Thanks.
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Mar 14 2023 13:11 utc | 33
Re: Posted by: David G Horsman | Mar 14 2023 12:36 utc | 24
Keeping all this in mind I opined that it (the offensive) may possibly happen in April but it's just as likely to occur in summer.I'm going to have to dig up what it (the term "immediacy bias") is called. If we are talking biases, I think the influence is close to that of confirmation bias.
I'm not sure I understand you.
I expect a Russian offensive at some time this year - perhaps August or September.
Russia should be aiming to capture the Donbas by the end of the year.
In 2024 Russia would be looking to take ground in Kharkov, Sumy, Chernihiv and Nikolaev.
Perhaps by 2025 Russia will be closing in on Kyiv.
I do not think that this sort of timeline indicates any sort of "immediacy bias" - but maybe you disagree?
Tell me more about whatever you're talking about.
Posted by: Julian | Mar 14 2023 13:11 utc | 34
There is a tragicly obsessive, "chronicle of [multiple deaths] foretold" aspect to watching the slow collapse of the Ukrainian forces along their eastern front-line. Sitting here in the belly of the NATO beast, I am also fascinated to watch the (far slower) collapse of the Western narrative of "inevitable victory against the Russians", "just give us a few more months and billions of $$ worth of weapons and you'll see it happen", etc.
The realism that Gen. M. Milley started to express in late December (later, generally suppressed) gave some first signs of this crumbling. The reporting of the WaPo's Karen DeYoung has shown, previously and today, further signs of the crumble. Also, crucially, the decision of the WaPo's editors to assign and run this latest story. There's a sense that the folks at the WaPo realize they need to start preparing their readership for what may well be a catastrophic collapse of the UAF ahead...
Posted by: Helena Cobban | Mar 14 2023 13:11 utc | 35
The UAF losses are so huge they’re going to revisit exemptions
Our source reports that in the case of mobilization, a nix is brewing not in favor of people. The Office of the President wants to check all issued certificates, reasons, etc., for declining from mobilization.Too many people appeared who "bought" their freedom by giving bribes from $3 to $10,000.
Closer to the fall, many of these slope papers will be cancelled.
The reason is banal. The lack of manpower in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and after the spring-summer military campaign, the shortage of soldiers will be 10 times greater due to losses during the offensive.
https://t.me/legitimniy/14942
Posted by: Down South | Mar 14 2023 13:18 utc | 36
Oh boy, I've been hearing about cauldrons for a whole year now. When you boys gonna actually have one snap and not just keep edging me with a cauldron that is always 2 weeks away?
Posted by: Lol | Mar 14 2023 13:22 utc | 37
American Thinker: "In the situation in Ukraine, it is extremely difficult to make sense of the fog of propaganda and obvious lies." But gradually, a picture emerges of a decisive, slow, painful, painful victory for Russia. Ukraine is losing a generation of young men, all in order to support the weakening US planetary hegemony.✔️ Vicious, confused, criminally reckless American politicians, deliberately prolonging a destructive and extremely dangerous, hopeless conflict, are indifferent to the ruin of Ukraine and the mass death of its young men—cannon fodder for those who walk the corridors of the State Department and the Pentagon. And they are also indifferent to the unthinkable consequences that could be the final point of this military conflict.
✔️ Which would never have happened if the US accepted Kissinger and many others' proposal for a neutral Ukraine outside of NATO in 2021, as Russia reasonably suggested, and if Ukraine, at the behest of America, ended its eight-year US-sponsored war against Russian speakers in the Donbass. But the US military industry wanted war and got it. The goal is to bleed and weaken Russia with a quagmire akin to the Vietnamese, in order, according to the fantasies of great neoconservative thinkers, to cross out one of the two powers capable of saying "no" to America.
✔️ The outcome of this completely US-instigated war could be very different from the one that stirs the wet dreams of American neoconservatives. Russia seems to be taking the US sanctions quite calmly. The ruble remains strong, and 80% of the population seems to support the government, but the economy of Europe, especially Germany, is in free fall. plus the risk of a nuclear war with Russia.
✔️ The claim that Russia's invasion of Ukraine was the first step in its supposed coveted conquest of Europe is a laughable, outright lie. It is reported that Russia is constantly losing, bleeding, her defeats are huge, her victories are negligible, military equipment and ammunition are almost exhausted, the losses are much greater than those of the enemies, and she is greatly weakened as a military power. All this is the desperate propaganda of the Western elites and their mouthpieces in the media, which are gradually beginning to realize the scale of the catastrophe that the military conflict provoked by them in Ukraine is turning into. It is possible that the US authorities blew up the Nord Stream pipelines, and then this would be one of the largest terrorist attacks in history. And not just against Russia, but against America's close ally Germany.
✔️ The West needs to immediately change course in Ukraine. If he continues to drag out an unwinnable war, exacerbate past mistakes, and deliberately create a feeling of isolation and threat in Russia, he will soon find himself at a point where this war can only be continued by the direct entry of NATO troops. And this creates the serious possibility of the destruction of civilization. After all, no matter what happens on the battlefield, the Russians will not tolerate the transformation of Ukraine into a huge US military base on their front porch.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/37217
Posted by: Down South | Mar 14 2023 13:23 utc | 38
There are no relatively safe exits from Bakhmut, which may be "a sign that encirclement or evacuation of (the Ukrainian garrison in) the besieged city may be near, if not imminent," according to a recent Daily Mail report.The article says that a "safer" detour around the Bakhmut ledge is no longer possible by car. It has been mined by the military with anti-tank mines.
"If we are going to move forward, we will have to turn around and then choose the only remaining open "road" to Bakhmut—a more direct route, which has the disadvantage of being 700 meters away from Russian positions and under direct observation by Russian artillery," the report says.
The journalist writes that "our journey begins in Konstantinovka," and on the way to Bakhmut, the camera crew turns off at Chasov Yar.
Yesterday's Washington Post story referred to the Konstantinovka-Bakhmut highway as the "road of life" for the Bakhmut garrison. But, according to the Daily Mail report, it goes to Bakhmut via Chasov Yar, not directly.
From Chasov Yar, the road to Bakhmut leads through Khromovo, where Russian troops are trying to advance. The Ukrainian military has already said that if Khromovo is captured, Bakhmut will be virtually surrounded.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/37224
Posted by: Down South | Mar 14 2023 13:25 utc | 39
If abridged training and some dumped supplies by NATO could defeat Russia, that would have worked in Syria and would have been the plan all along. It was not, because it was known to be a failed idea. What is happening is probably NATO trying to bluff and terrorise the Russians, not knowing anything about Russian historical memory or what Russians think about threats by Germans sitting in their Reichstag.
Posted by: Clubofinfo | Mar 14 2023 13:34 utc | 40
Don't count your chickens before they hatch. The same war that has been wearing down ukraine has been a drain on Russia as well.
There will be tricks, treachery, unannounced weaponry, maybe Poland will declare war and attack kalinigrad.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 14 2023 13:44 utc | 41
Unconditional surrender will entail a mandatory "kiss Zelinsky good-bye" clause.
Otherwise it's 2014 déjà vu all over again.
Everybody knows that.
There will be (an exclusively Russian) no-trust occupation.
Call it a new start if you must.
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Mar 14 2023 13:46 utc | 42
Regarding how the proxy Ukraine War, in Theater, will likely end, as opposed to the wider geopolitical conflict ...
‘Little fissures’: The U.S.-Ukraine war unity is slowly cracking apart - Politico
Though President Joe Biden has pledged steadfast support, the U.S. has been clear with Kyiv that it cannot fund Ukraine indefinitely at this levelA tough week for U.S.-Ukraine news reveals an imperfect harmony
The United States and Ukraine have largely been in lockstep since President Joe Biden’s administration pledged support for “as long as it takes” in resisting Moscow’s relentless invasion.
But more than a year into the war, there are growing differences behind the scenes between Washington and Kyiv on war aims, and potential flashpoints loom on how, and when, the conflict will end.
“The administration doesn’t have a clear policy objective and a clear goal. Is it to drag this thing out, which is precisely what Vladimir Putin wants?” said Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “Is it to just give them enough to survive and not to win? I don’t see a policy for victory right now, and if we don’t have that, then what are we doing?”
Publicly, there has been little separation between Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, an alliance on full display last month when the American president made his covert, dramatic visit to Kyiv. But based on conversations with 10 officials, lawmakers and experts, new points of tension are emerging: The sabotage of a natural gas pipeline on the floor of the Atlantic Ocean; the brutal, draining defense of a strategically unimportant Ukrainian city; and a plan to fight for a region where Russian forces have been entrenched for nearly a decade.
Senior administration officials maintain that unity between Washington and Kyiv is tight. But the fractures that have appeared are making it harder to credibly claim there’s little daylight between the U.S. and Ukraine as sunbeams streak through the cracks.
... the Biden administration has signaled to Kyiv — much like it did when a car bomb in Moscow killed the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist last year — that certain acts of violence outside of Ukraine’s borders will not be tolerated.
...
&
China believes Russia will win the Ukraine conflict, soon ...
Behind Ukraine peace proposal, China foresees end to war in summer - Nikkei Asia
Simulation by military academy prompts Beijing to push cease-fire planBEIJING -- After avoiding getting too deeply involved in Russia’s war in Ukraine over the past year, China suddenly offered a peace proposal last month. Chinese military experts’ prediction that the war will come to an end this summer is likely behind this about-face.
When over 200 world leaders and senior officials gathered in Munich for last month's security conference, Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, told the attendees that China would soon announce a plan to become a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The Academy of Military Sciences reports directly to the People's Liberation Army. Although it cannot be found on a map, the institution is located in Beijing's Haidian district, which itself is home to the ruins of Yuanmingyuan, a palace destroyed by Western armies in the 19th century.
The AMS regularly issues recommendations and reports to the Communist Party's Central Military Commission, the highest decision-making body for China's armed forces. A cabinet-level official heads the academy.
In December, the AMS completed a simulation on the Ukraine conflict, resulting in an astonishing finding, according to sources close to the Chinese government. The war will draw to a close around summer 2023, the simulation indicated, with Russia having the upper hand.
&
Kremlin explains its ‘only option’ (Military) in Ukraine - RT, swentr
In the absence of conditions for peace, military action is required to achieve Russian goals, Press Secretary of the President of Russia D. Peskov saidThere are currently no conditions for a peace settlement in Ukraine, meaning Russia has no other option but to keep fighting, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has argued.
“The absolute priority for us remains and will always remain reaching the goals that we’ve set for ourselves (Dec'21). At this point in time, they can only be achieved through military means,” the official told journalists on Monday.
Peskov was reacting to an article penned by veteran German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger, who served as chair of the Munich Security Conference for over a decade. In a piece published by Der Tagesspiegel on Sunday, Ischinger urged Western leaders to “start thinking about a peace process now” and create a special political contact group for the Ukraine conflict.
“In addition to arms deliveries and financial support, we have to offer perspectives to the growing chorus of questions by critics,” he argued.
According to Ischinger’s proposal, the contact group would be led by the US, UK, Germany and France, with other nations and international organizations, including NATO, forming an “outer circle” of participants to lend legitimacy to any draft documents.
The group’s task would be to prepare a ceasefire agreement and other paperwork to form the backbone for a post-conflict period. It would work alongside the so-called Ramstein Group, which funnels Western military aid to Ukraine. Ischinger stressed that the new initiative would not put pressure on Ukraine to negotiate.
...
In essence, indisputable incontestable military defeat of the US/NATO/EU proxy Ukraine AFU on the battlefield & presentation of unconditional terms of surrender, IMV. See: Russia's Three Objectives, officially declared, Dec'21.
Thanks b for your stellar efforts.
Hehe, the two media arms of the 3-letter agency, NYT and Bezos' blog Wapo, is setting the table for the announcement:
- "UKR's manpower not up to it so we will be sending boots"
and the Kremlin let it be known: " The goals of the special military operation can be achieved only militarily."
Tass: https://tass.com/politics/1588289
MOSCOW, March 14. /TASS/. There can be no talk about a peace process if Ukraine ignores new realities and the latest developments, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday.
"All of Moscow’s demands are well known. The de facto situation and new realities are also well known. The transition to a peaceful track is impossible, if this set of issues is ignored," Peskov said, responding to a question about how the Kiev regime’s position should change to pave the way for a peaceful settlement.[.]
Go to December 2021: It's NATO on our doorstep, they US-Led NATO gave an undertaking February 9, 1990 not to move an inch if the then USSR allowed the reunification of Germany. The US does not respect its signature or any legal undertakings.
How Gorbachev was misled over assurances against NATO expansion
Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major and WoernerOn the 12 December 2017 the National Security Archive at George Washington University posted online 30 declassified US, Soviet, German, British and French documents revealing a torrent of assurances about Soviet security given by Western leaders to Gorbachev and other Soviet officials throughout the process of German unification in 1990 and on into 1991. Some of the documents have been publicly available for several years, others have been revealed as a result of Freedom of Information requests for the study. See the briefing here.
US Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on 9 February 1990 was only part of a cascade of similar assurances.[.]
Considering:
1. Theft of RF's $300 billion foreign Reserves
2. US' Act of War - destruction of NordStream pipelines
those are the first two preconditions; RF must be made whole before considering a yes to any negotiations for ending the war.
It's a very long road that will take decades to restore confidence.
Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 14 2023 13:48 utc | 44
I feel deeply sad about all the dead and wounded people in this useless war. We should all be sorry.
Shame on the US Gov. for initiating this conflict, letting innocent people die for their greed and utterly stupid interests.
The USA and their innocent citizens will pay hard for this, just as NAZI Germany and the German people did some 80 years ago.
History will judge the inhuman US-politics with abundant of harshness.
Posted by: HansJuergen | Mar 14 2023 13:52 utc | 45
Xi Jinping and Putin trolls Zelensky by calling him, while Zelensky demands weapons from China.
Posted by: Forged News Humour | Mar 14 2023 13:54 utc | 46
It’s probably in RoW interest for Russia to “underperform” enough to maintain Natzo hopium at the level necessary for Natzo’s to continue throwing good money after bad.
This latest Natzo war is not just depleting their weapon stocks. The meetings over their latest quagmire is probably displacing everything else in their Outlook calendars. A few other initiatives will die on the vine for lack of executive decision-making.
Posted by: natokraine | Mar 14 2023 13:55 utc | 47
TrollTalk has come up with a whole new angle for todays news, "it's going to be a long long war in spite of what your lying eyes say"
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Mar 14 2023 13:55 utc | 48
But even that will only give it another three month or so before the inevitable collapse arrives.Posted by b on March 14, 2023 at 10:19 UTC | Permalink
IF events indeed unfold like this, would that have been the expectation of "Ukraine has used this time to become stronger" Merkel? If not, Merkels plan was defeated. If yes, what was her plan meant to achieve?
Posted by: Vikichka | Mar 14 2023 13:57 utc | 49
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 14 2023 13:44 utc | 40
There is a word for that in Russian, шапкозакидательство, to throw the cap in the air as graduates or victorious soldiers do. Some sane voices on the Russian side are warning not to rush with the cap throwing, the tricks of a falling empire are devious. But many are paying heed to the warnings, hopefully this tragedy will end up soon.
Posted by: Paco | Mar 14 2023 13:58 utc | 50
“I hate it when a plan falls apart.”
- John “anti-Hannibal” Bolton
Posted by: natokraine | Mar 14 2023 13:59 utc | 51
Weeb Union reporting a breakthrough of the Wagner forces in Southern Bahkmut:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5Q2C4pX5ig
Bonus footage of Ugledar - looks like total devastation.
Another youtube "mapper" reports a breakthrough towards Kramatorsk:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jr4SDjLCPZs
It really doesn't look good for the cokehead now.
Posted by: Chris | Mar 14 2023 14:03 utc | 52
Ukraine's defeat is as inevitable as the US defeat in the Afghan War; however, the Russians seem unable to do much on the battlefield. Are they holding back? If so why?
First, the Russians believed time was on their side particularly when it became clear that the US made if clear that this was their proxy war against Russia. The dramatic sanctions and rounding up of the Vichy-style governments of Europe, extraordinary large sums of money and arms thrown at the Ukrainian elite to spend as they saw fit without, for awhile any oversight all caused intelligent Russians to understand the US meant business and would go all out to destroy Russia.
Second, the existential aspect of this war has caused the Russians to hold back in case the war expanded to includ direct intervention by NATO and other forces spurred on by the almost unlimited budget of the US to fund color revolutions on the periphery of Russia.
Third, Russia seems to understand the issue of multi-polarity and thus needed the support tacit and otherwise of China, Iran, and countries more on the fence like India, Turkeya, the Saudis and so on and avoid the US style all-out destruction of civilian infrastructure. The careful way Russia has dealt with avoiding civilian casualties and so on is well-noted by countries not in the Empire's orbit. We have to remember that US power not from being loved but being feared and they use military force as a last resort after bribery, threats, blackmail, assassinations, and color revolutions cease to work. The US no longer has any interest in diplomacy or international law and this fact is gradually sinking into the minds of the international community.
Because of all this the Empire's constant spreading of the fact Russia want to reclaim its own empire is no longer credible given that Russia is not mortgaging its future in fighting this war but systematically and gradually rolling on until Ukrainians can understand that their government is nothing but a proxy of US interests. The new shift in the mainstream media's coverage of this war shows, dramatically, a change in US policy. The major media outlets in the US ONLY reflect the opinion of the dominant ruling-clique in Washington so this change is very dramatic and insures the end of Ukraine as we know it by summer (or before) as long as the Russians can remain solid in their course of action.
Washington wants out at this time.
Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Mar 14 2023 14:05 utc | 53
@ Lol | Mar 14 2023 13:22 utc | 36.
Your thinking seems unadaptable:
The RF have made the wonderful discovery
that, if they achieve and hold a near-encirclement, Zelensky & Co. will pour reinforcements into what becomes a huge de facto fire-trap.
Artyemovsk (Bakhmut) seems to be developing into a double fire-trap, inner and outer, but we'll see.
Posted by: John Kennard | Mar 14 2023 14:05 utc | 54
Cauldrons boil over when the lid is closed, best to leave the lid open slightly to allow stem to escape.
Cooking 101.
Otoh, if one has control of the heat, one is free to apply the heat where one wishes.....no time frame, nice slow boil.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 14 2023 14:12 utc | 55
Geo strategically- the multipolarists need to mentally re-educate the global South and East away from centuries of colonial mindset - that they the Many are not as ‘good’ as the old Imperialists and their Western Fairytales and the imperialists live in some Garden of Eden that has to be entered for any kind of security and comfort.
That mind cleansing requires that the Miltary Industrial toys are shown to be as useless as the astronaut in Toy Story fable believing its ability to go to Infinity and Beyond!
Mere childish beliefs in the might of the MIC and Hollywood special effects.
Yup - these Western Modern Toys and their salesmen hucksters need to be shown for the huckster cons they are.
That will once and for all remove all the centuries of fear and worship of the imperial thugs and also the entitlement of us mere citizens who also believe in that fairytale and expect to stride the world as if we own it and deserve the respect and services of the poor peoples when we go on vacation to their lands.
So let this be the final sacrifice by the Russians to finally defenestrate the European Yoke being attached to it. I humbly apologise for the Russophobia and death and destruction that has for centuries been waged by our ‘Gardener Nazis’ in all their forms.
The Ukrainians who also believed in that fairytale of the riches of Europe and Glamour of Hollywood are finding out the hard way that the Old Imperialists have found a way to claim the Ukrainian lands. That they have been deliberately destroyed so that their claims to their lands will never be recognised. That the Finks of Blackrock own half of it and the Russians the rest.
We too in the Collective Waste are also in severe need of that epiphany.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 14 2023 14:17 utc | 56
it's nauseating. and infuriating because it's been inevitable from the start. if i was ukrainian, i'd be hating me some americans right now.
Posted by: ontoiran | Mar 14 2023 14:21 utc | 57
I can't find any Chinese sources for the rumour that Xi and Zelenski plan to discuss the war. Plenty of West MSM but zilch from China.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Mar 14 2023 14:21 utc | 58
@ Chris Cosmos | Mar 14 2023 14:05 utc | 52
@ DunGroanin | Mar 14 2023 14:17 utc | 55
Bravo, Bravo! Well said indeed. Cheers.
@ sean the leprechaun | Mar 14 2023 14:12 utc | 54
As Hermit posted in the March 12, 2023, Ukraine Open Thread 2023-60:
Sun Tzu said, in The Art of War, 7. MANEUVERING wrote,
When you surround an army, leave an outlet free.This does not mean that the enemy is to be allowed to escape. The object, as Tu Mu puts it, is "to make him believe that there is a road to safety, and thus prevent his fighting with the courage of despair." Tu Mu adds pleasantly: "After that, you may crush him."
Hermit | Mar 14 2023 9:43 utc | 318
Posted by: Helena Cobban | Mar 14 2023 13:11 utc | 34
Exactly. US government already threw Ukraine under the bus with the Ukrainian ‘Dr Evil’ blew up Nord Stream…when the penny finally drops (material reality of the battlefield and western economic recession) on how insane and unachievable this proxy war against Russia is, the western media will have no shortage of pictures and videos of Nazis in the AFU and the war crimes they’ve perpetrated against Russian POWs, Russian, LPR, DPR and Ukrainian civilians to turn the half baked notions of the bewildered herd and the true believer neo-effin-idea types.
As we know, to date this news has been suppressed under western propaganda conditions; but that won’t apply once the Ukrainians are dropped by the US in the same way they dropped the Kurds, Afghans etc.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Mar 14 2023 14:31 utc | 60
The Ukrainian armed forces should swallow their pride and begin to deploy an obviously successful Russian wunderwaffe, the SIS-50 shovel. As a former Soviet republic, they should still have a plentiful supply of these. Well-planned charges by trained Shovel Assault Groups (SAGs) would enable the Bakhmut encirclement to be broken, perhaps all the way to Crimea. Training would be cheap and easy, Ukrainians as a whole already being familiar with the weapon and 'NATO standards' not being required. Seriously, if the Ukrainian General Staff reads the MoA comments section, this post should give them food for thought.
To tell the truth, I wouldn't mind getting hold of an original SIS-50 myself. Sturdy, quality material, fine craftsmanship, multi-task. Hard to find all that these days.
Posted by: B. Wildered | Mar 14 2023 14:33 utc | 61
Shelling is so intense at times, he said, that one soldier will have a panic attack, then “others catch it.”
Those who have read "All Quiet On The Western Front" (the book, not the recent movie which has almost nothing in common with it) will recognise the scene where Paul Baümer's unit is under heavy shelling and a new recruit goes crazy* with fear, and Paul and his comrades beat him unconscious in an effort to stop him contaminating the other recruits with his fear.
Looking at the map, if the Ukranazi artillery at Chasov Yar can be silenced, Russia doesn't need to storm that highly defendable position; it can move on down the highway to Konstantinovka. Once Konstantinovka is taken Chasov Yar is indefensible anyway. But the nazi artillery needs to be eliminated first.
*apparently "crazy" is on the woke verboten last of words so normal people should use it more.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Mar 14 2023 14:33 utc | 62
Rybar seems to this this is a western media psy-op. https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1635647117535461378
Not sure I buy it.
Posted by: Sam | Mar 14 2023 14:37 utc | 63
Washington wants out at this time.
Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Mar 14 2023 14:05 utc | 52
Washington will not get what it wants. The bear is awake and he won’t go back to sleep until he has taken down the whole post-WW2 architecture of NATO, the EU, and IMF (dollar supremacy).
The collapse of Ukraine is just the beginning. Another winter or two without gas will destroy Germany’s industrial base. Higher global interest rates will destroy high debt countries. The depletion of military stockpiles across the West will kill any idea of retaliation.
How does this impact the Ukraine operation? I expect a pause or at least a slowdown in Russia’s operations there soon. This will allow more foreign equipment and personnel into the theatre. That way the slow grind of total German/EU/US destruction can continue for a couple more years.
Posted by: VtObserver | Mar 14 2023 14:42 utc | 64
reply to 52
I think you make some good points. I can only add one which I think is primary. When Russia retreated from Kherson and Kharkiv, it was very painful politically but necessary, given the true goal of the war: to destroy the Ukraine army and much of the male population. Territory comes later.
Could Russia throw everything it has at Bakhmut and capture it in a matter of hours? Without question. So, why doesn't it do so? Because going slow and allowing reinforcements fits its purpose as above, very conveniently. This is 'a feature, not a bug'.
Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 14 2023 14:47 utc | 65
@ Jo Dominich | Mar 14 2023 12:31 utc | 22
Billions have been poured into Ukraine but zero to show for it.
Zero to show for it? Let's check the war-is-a-racket news. . .
>The U.S. defense budget ballooned to all-time highs in the budget deal sealed by Congress in December.
>20 members of Congress personally invest in top weapons contractors that'll profit from the just-passed $40 billion Ukraine aid package
etc.
It's not who"wins" it's who profits, and so the Pentagon and its pet corporations with the help of the bought-and-paid-for Congress get half the budget.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 14 2023 14:52 utc | 66
🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦Ukraine is preparing a counteroffensive in the area of Artemovsk(Bakhmut), Prigozhin saidUkrainian troops are preparing a counteroffensive in the Artemivsk area, hoping to dissect the Wagner group, Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin told reporters on Tuesday.
"Absolutely cooked. In the area of Artemovsk, the AFU's plans for today are four strikes: two strikes will fall on the flanks plus two strikes that dissect our grouping... They plan, of course, to cut off the grouping of the Wagner PMCs and thus reduce the tasks that we perform in Artemovsk to zero," he said.
Now, according to him, the units of Wagner are located in close proximity to the city administration of Artemovsk. According to him, there are about 50 000 Ukrainian soldiers constantly in the area of Artemovsk, including 12-20 000 in the city limits.
"To date, the AFU has prepared additional surprises for us, and these additional strikes that they are ready to inflict are about 20 000 more people. It turns out about 70 000, but this does not mean that they are all inside Artemovsk," Prigozhin explained.
He explained the fierce battles for Artemovsk by the fact that this city at this stage of a special military operation is an "assembly point" and "a place where armies meet."
https://t.me/azmilitary11/40764
Posted by: Down South | Mar 14 2023 14:53 utc | 67
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 14 2023 11:46 utc | 13
Thanks for the link. The post says that tanks and armoured carriers will be delivered in mid April.
That means that if the Ukrainian losses are maintained at current rates, the new equipment is just enough to replace what has been lost from today until then.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Mar 14 2023 14:54 utc | 68
The news gets more amusing--
>Ukraine's presidential adviser Mikhailo Podolyak has criticized Academy Awards organizers for not allowing Volodymyr Zelensky to address the ceremony in which a film featuring Russia's most prominent critic was honored with an Oscar.
>Lithuanian parliament recognizes Wagner Group as terrorist organization.
>Ukraine's Foreign Minister: Two more countries join Core Group on Special Tribunal for Russian crime of aggression.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 14 2023 15:04 utc | 69
Another terrific article following many such before it.
One thing keeps baffling me: if the 7+ to 1 ratio is about right, and if most of the experienced officers and NCO's are now KIA or WIA, how come the Ukrainians seemingly keep mounting such fierce resistance making the RF campaign such a long, slow 'grind' with UAF forces still fairly close to Donetsk City after a year of this? Am not a military person and find it strange that there can be such a seeming disparity of casualties on the one hand yet with sustained resilience notwithstanding on the other. It sometimes feels to me like we are all being played somehow. But then after decades living in the Empire of Lies, that is so much of an existential given that it's hard to shake no matter what transpires.
Perhaps RF is not pushing for quick military victory given the damage being inflicted on the West due to the SMO and related sanctions which have brought a lot of deep-down stress fractures into manifest surface turbulence with seemingly each month engendering geopolitical tectonic shifts.
This does not mean that the enemy is to be allowed to escape. The object, as Tu Mu puts it, is "to make him believe that there is a road to safety, and thus prevent his fighting with the courage of despair." Tu Mu adds pleasantly: "After that, you may crush him."
Hermit | Mar 14 2023 9:43 utc | 318
Interestingly in this case, not fully encircling allows the enemy to keep bringing in reinforcements. As long as that continues, RF has no great incentive to take new territory since the enemy is willingly coming to them and submitting to horrific artillery bombardments day after day. Very strange.
The West’s military training in this situation is like taking a featherweight fighter with no wins or losses and putting him in the ring with a heavyweight contender who’s got a pretty good record underneath his belt and telling the media that the featherweight will win this bout. And the people who own the featherweight are betting that the heavyweight will throw the fight and allow the other guy to win.
Posted by: Jose Garcia | Mar 14 2023 15:17 utc | 72
For those of us following the battle space via Telegram etc, this comes as no surprise. The tides are shifting as far as the western MSM representation not for any altruistic reasons, but for the fact that once a majority know it they must simply cop to the facts or risk losing any street cred they might still possess….
Even the trolls have taken a step back: forced to use irrelevant ridicule like ‘oh what’s taking so long’ as well as classic projection. Russia is running out of missiles, human wave attacks, forced conscription. All of which are easily debunked.
Trotting out the NordStream sabotage “theory” of the Pro-Ukraine Yachting Group is a new pinnacle in admissions of failure.
Then add to that China coming out and printing “the quiet part loud’” for all the world to see. And what does the USA do? Doubles down in the classic one trick pony fashion! Fuggin ReDonkulous.
Now we are treated to Ukies running around in nice clean trenches somewhere in the UK getting all pepped up for the vaunted Spring Offensive. Has it occurred to them that it’s the Ukies that should be training the Brits as well as the rest of the EU and it’s army of LARPing soldierettes?!
Posted by: Chevrus | Mar 14 2023 15:18 utc | 73
It's hilarious watching the MSM twist itself around slowly. The first quote in this piece reveals the ongoing prevarication:
"The quality of Ukraine’s military force, once considered ["considered" should be 'touted as'] a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters ["experienced" at shelling the civilian population of the Donbas] off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyiv’s readiness to mount a much-anticipated [much touted and ludicrously impossible] spring offensive."
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Mar 14 2023 15:21 utc | 74
I'd still be more confident of the Russian situation if last September instead of a single partial mobilization "wave" of 300K, Russia had instead established a mobilization "pipeline" of, say, 50K per month. Assuming a 6 month training pipeline, at any given time there would be 300K undergoing training. Every month, 50K are called up and enter the pipe. Every month, 50K exit the other end of the pipe and become available for combat.
The goal would be to eventually build up a force north of 1 million for the Ukrainian operation ... because I think that's what it's going to take. If Ukraine crumbles before then, well, okay, great, Russia has won so the mobilization pipeline can be shut down. The problem with the current situation is, if Ukraine doesn't crumble, and Russia needs further mobilization then you can probably kiss 2023 goodbye while that mobilization and training takes place. And of course, that's also time for Ukraine/NATO to recover as well (and of course, my pet bugaboo, get a substantial drone/cruise/missile campaign of their own going).
Posted by: Mike314159 | Mar 14 2023 15:21 utc | 75
@ Helena Cobban | Mar 14 2023 13:11 utc | 34
I'm one barfly who feels honored by your contribution, here.
if i was ukrainian, i'd be hating me some americans right now.
@ ontoiran | Mar 14 2023 14:21 utc | 56
Thanks for crystallizing it so clearly. Your observation matches pangs of conscience I feel almost uniquely subject to, out here in the US of A. I'd fight the colonial madness any way I could, but I still feel totally responsible, as a US American, for the death, destruction, and suffering my so-called country has caused in Ukraine.
But US Americans, as a rule, are relentlessly drilled from childhood to look the other way -- it's the American way, the oblivious way: anti-Ahimsa. Look (at, or rather, away from) East Palestine, Ohio -- another sign of the times when internal colonialism reaches a new high-water mark of thoughtlessness. US American "morale" is not yet as demolished as that of Ukrainians, but it's circling the drain.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Mar 14 2023 15:24 utc | 76
I'm a little slow as usual, but it seems to me that the great fast deep RF Big Arrow offensives expected for months have in fact been finessed by the RF cheerfully doubling down on success by massive reinforcements of the front in a great slow rolling Broad Arrow offensive.
Posted by: John Kennard | Mar 14 2023 15:29 utc | 77
thanks b... i admire this kupol fellow for speaking out... i think both you and him are right in your assessment..
Posted by: james | Mar 14 2023 15:34 utc | 78
The way this conflict is going I can see Nato troops playing a bigger and bigger role in it to help the floundering Ukrainian forces. The Nato forces will do this in secrecy, but I have no doubts that the Kremlin already knows this and is prepared for it.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 14 2023 15:37 utc | 79
@ Republicofscotland | Mar 14 2023 15:37 utc | 79
i think this has been happening all along.. the quesion is - how much are they going to ramp it up? will poland get directly involved? etc. etc.. and yes - russia is definitely aware of all of this too..
Posted by: james | Mar 14 2023 15:39 utc | 80
James (80).
James that is the big question how far will Nato go to keep the conflict going.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 14 2023 15:41 utc | 81
Eventually, the AFU will have to retreat to the Western bank of the Dnieper River. The question will then be "has Ukraine enough forces left to set up a strong defensive line West of the Dnieper"?
Posted by: young | Mar 14 2023 15:42 utc | 82
Thanks for the posting b
Reality creeping into public consciousness is a good thing but the deaths along the way are saddening.
I hope the reality of the public/private finance war creeps more into the public consciousness so money for killing more humans will stop being favored.
The shit show continues until it doesn't and its showing strain this week.....
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 14 2023 15:44 utc | 83
Posted by: Sam | Mar 14 2023 14:37 utc | 62
Rybar seems to this this is a western media psy-op.
He is not the only one, quite a few well informed and very reliable voices are warning of a mass drone attack trying to reach the Sea of Azov, Crimea is the big prize, it always was starting back in '14 and that's why Nuland and Co. went nuts when it was recovered without a single shot, they won't quit until the last young Ucranian is dead. I wont't post it again but anybody can do a search for School Nº5 in Sevastopol and the DoD soliciting repairs to stablish its headquarters. Putin ironized about the fine lads on NATO not visiting the Glorious city of Sevastopol but receiving the Russians as guests there.
Posted by: Paco | Mar 14 2023 15:45 utc | 84
@69 the 7 to 1 ratio is simply a ratio derived linearly from counting artillery tubes.
It's not based on anything other than that, pure hand waving. I'd bet the Ukrainians have more losses, but probably not even 2-1.
The other fact is that ukraine had its army lined up at front line ready to invade.
It's starting positions near donetsk are picked for the defensibility, which mean high ground and urban areas.
Second many of those assault were/are being done by donbass militias, backed by russian military artillery. Those losses simply aren't counted very well, and by all indicators are quite high.
Russia decided to limit casualties by keeping donetsk on the front, as with russian artillery ukraine can't take it.
However russian and the donbass military can't take the fortified areas either(although aadviika is under pressure now) so it was a stalemate.
Lifting the seige of donetsk therefore comes last once it can no longer by resupplied and reinforced. Constant pressure is needed though to drain it, so it's been a year of probing attacks followed by artillery. Which is good for kill ratios(not 7 to 1 but bad for ukraine)
Assaulting the urban areas to take territory is bad for russia though, and new weapons have made the offensive expensive very similar to ww1. And that more evens up the kill ratio.
Ukrainian attacks are pretty sparse on information I can't really tell what they're losing around kremmina for instance so it's kinda foggy.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 14 2023 15:49 utc | 85
I think it is among the possible explanations that Zelensky seeks to attrit his NotZ problem.
Posted by: jared | Mar 14 2023 15:50 utc | 86
from Stripes..a Patriot battery in Poland
The soldiers of Delta Battery are hypervigilant for a potential attack that could plunge 30 nations into conflict with Russia, and they’ve been that way ever since arriving last year with their Patriot missiles at little more than a muddy field in Poland. . .article here and photo here.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 14 2023 15:52 utc | 87
Thank you, b.
I have read that many western companies have significant investments in eastern Ukraine. I have thought that this conflict was inspired and instigated by multinational corporate and banking interests in hopes that Russia would collapse and these interests could go back to plundering the Russian economy as they did in the 1990's. They have certainly plundered Ukraine's economy.
I'm wondering if any peace proposal would demand that Russia recognize the property rights of these corporate interests. Or would Russia (justly) refuse their claims? Are these billions in investments what are keeping the US and western powers determined to support Ukraine to the last Ukrainian?
Posted by: Belle | Mar 14 2023 16:00 utc | 90
Neofeudalfantasy @85
Would you like to buy a bridge in Ukraine?
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Mar 14 2023 16:03 utc | 91
Posted by: Belle | Mar 14 2023 16:00 utc | 90
Russia won't care what debt Ukraine has incurred from the west, or what property rights they have sold.
That's why the corporate controlled west through Zelensky and Azov/Kraken controlled state intelligence, military and security services will ensure that every last Ukrainian is utilized to pay the debt and property ownership with blood. An independent country would have, for the sake of the nation, surrendered in the first 2-3 months of SMO. Ukraine is zombie state, the future is ruined. Most Ukrainians have emigrated elsewhere, including Russia and EU, but the heartland is gone.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 14 2023 16:04 utc | 92
Posted by: Hans Hansen | Mar 14 2023 15:27 utc | 76
Perhaps you could shed some light on exactly how our host got the war “wrong”.
Was it simply a matter of inaccurate prediction? Because that is common throughout….
Maybe something specific you had in mind?
Come now, dont be shy…we are a very open minded lot around here.
Posted by: Chevrus | Mar 14 2023 16:05 utc | 93
@ Belle | Mar 14 2023 16:00 utc | 90
i agree with @ unimperator | Mar 14 2023 16:04 utc | 92... and yes - that is probably a good reason why so much of this is happening..
Posted by: james | Mar 14 2023 16:09 utc | 94
Lol, ok guys but it's a good point. At 7-1 ratio ukraines army would be a lot less effective and doing more retreating to stop such losses.
This is such an information war though, God damn theres so much BS a person could drown in it.
I look forward to the documentaries 20 years from now see what was true and what wasn't.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 14 2023 16:10 utc | 95
As you can see, these military actions are prolonged and it doesn't look like a coincidence. What is Heaven's plan? In the Book of Daniel, God announces: "At the appointed time [the king of the north] will return back." (Daniel 11:29) And that, in this context, means that Russian garrisons will return to where they were previously stationed. And this applies not only to Ukraine. These military actions will expand to other countries. The EU and NATO will break up. Many countries of the former Eastern block will return to a military alliance with Russia.
Let me remind the context: "And both these kings [Great Britain and Russia. (In 1882 British troops occupied Egypt. Great Britain then took the role of "the king of the south". Around the same time, Russia expanded its influence in the region, which previously belonged to Seleucus I Nicator, and took the role of "the king of the north")], their hearts (will be) to do mischief, and at one table (they) will speak a lie; but (they) will not succeed [neither of them will be victorious over the other before the appointed time]. Indeed yet (the) completion to (the) appointed time." (Daniel 11:27) And this indicates that here we have a long jump from antiquity to nineteenth/twentieth century, to the period immediately before "the Lord’s Day". (Revelation 1:10)
And what was supposed to happen in this period of time (before "the Lord’s Day")? "And [the king of the north] will go back (to) his land with great wealth [1945. This detail indicated that after the previous victories Hitler will attack the Soviet Union and will fight to the bitter end]; and his heart (will be) against the holy covenant [Soviet Union introduced state atheism]; and will act; and go back to his own land [1991-1993. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. The troops from the Soviet military bases returned to their country]." (Daniel 11:28)
What will happen at the beginning of "the Lord’s Day"? "At the appointed time [the king of the north] will return back." (Daniel 11:29a)
Posted by: Ewiak Ryszard | Mar 14 2023 16:12 utc | 96
@ B. Wildered | Mar 14 2023 14:33 utc | 60
MPL-50 v.1869, 1917 & 1939, CS92SF & SIS-50:
THE most deadly & HORRIFYING Weapon of all in the Russian arsenal - URA! - Youtube. 6m:57s
Berloga Knives.
Note: Common additional secondary uses include: Lethal close-quarter combat, short-ranged thrown projectile, cooking & the traditional serving of pancakes.
It was incredibly funny to read them describe Ukrainian rookies fleeing from combat and ammo shortages and then claim that russia not only suffered 2x losses to Ukraine, but even lost more men than their entire initial invasion force. How did an army 5x larger than russias have such a hard time then?
Posted by: Hrughus | Mar 14 2023 16:15 utc | 98
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 14 2023 16:10 utc | 95
How do you explain the absconding of women, children and old men on the streets and sending them to the front if "true information" is "less than a 2 to 1 ratio"?
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Mar 14 2023 16:16 utc | 99
Posted by: Ewiak Ryszard | Mar 14 2023 16:12 utc | 96
If Russia decisively crushes Ukraines army, it will lead to a house of cards collapsing where eastern Europe, like Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova (Hungary is already there) will begin cracking and away from Nato/US. I think the cracks are already there. US has pushed all the extortion buttons it has to keep them under control, which is also one reason why Serbia was forced to give up the 3000 or whatever MLRS rockets. They have also most likely threatened India with internal chaos re. oil price cap. India forced to "ask" their banks to comply with oil price cap (note: "if you want").
In the event Nato starts cracking, expect CIA/MI6 to begin a big wave of false flag attacks across Europe in an attempt for their puppet leaders go and declare war. At that point, Nato can too crack, only Poland and Baltic states maybe do that. But west Europe will distance from Nato.
But the drain in Donbass so far has prevented Ukraine from opening the second front in Transnistria.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 14 2023 16:21 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
The first Ukrainian army was destroyed between March and May of last year, represented by the battles of Mariupol and Lysychansk.
The second rebuilt Ukrainian army was completely consumed in the "Great Counter-Offensive" between September and November, and its final battle was the Battle of Red Liman in November.
The rebuilt third Ukrainian army was destroyed in Bakhmut, which is happening now.
NATO is now probably pouring its last efforts into organizing a fourth Ukrainian army, probably based on the Ukrainian armored units that were shattered in Bakhmut, with a possible staging area in Poltava. The most valuable use of this army is to slow down the Russian offensive, but the Nazi military may use it in the unnecessary show of "marching on Crimea" in order to perform for their Western masters.
Posted by: JAYWANG | Mar 14 2023 10:29 utc | 1