|
Ukraine – Media Start To Acknowledge Reality
Finally some truth about the real state of the Ukrainian military is sneaking into main stream media. It is as bad, still not fully disclosed, as we have described it again and again.
As the Washington Post provides:
Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow
I'll leave out the propaganda bits and go for the factual beef. The quotes are long but needed to grasp the depth of horrible situation.
The opening paragraph:
The quality of Ukraine’s military force, once considered a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyiv’s readiness to mount a much-anticipated spring offensive.
That spring offensive is as likely to happen as the announced relief campaign to unblock Bakhmut. The later is bogged down in mud which will only become worse over the next few weeks.
The spring campaign will be made up of green recruits which will use a wild mix of weapons they are not familiar with. Unless there are some 'western' surprises I see no way how it can overwhelm the well prepared Russian defense lines.
Back to the piece:
[Á]n influx of inexperienced draftees, brought in to plug the losses, has changed the profile of the Ukrainian force, which is also suffering from basic shortages of ammunition, including artillery shells and mortar bombs, according to military personnel in the field.
“The most valuable thing in war is combat experience,” said a battalion commander in the 46th Air Assault Brigade, who is being identified only by his call sign, Kupol, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol. “A soldier who has survived six months of combat and a soldier who came from a firing range are two different soldiers. It’s heaven and earth.”
“And there are only a few soldiers with combat experience,” Kupol added. “Unfortunately, they are all already dead or wounded.”
Such grim assessments have spread a palpable, if mostly unspoken, pessimism from the front lines to the corridors of power in Kyiv, the capital.
Ukrainian losses, estimated to be nearer to 200,000 than to 100,000 dead with even more wounded, are especially felt at the lower command level. One can not just take a salesman or teacher from the street and put them into a junior command role.
Kupol said he was speaking out in hopes of securing better training for Ukrainian forces from Washington and that he hopes Ukrainian troops being held back for a coming counteroffensive will have more success than the inexperienced soldiers now manning the front under his command.
“There’s always belief in a miracle,” he said. “Either it will be a massacre and corpses or it’s going to be a professional counteroffensive. There are two options. There will be a counteroffensive either way.”
It indeed will need a miracle for the counteroffensive to become anything but a massacre.
One senior Ukrainian government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid, called the number of tanks promised by the West a “symbolic” amount. Others privately voiced pessimism that promised supplies would even reach the battlefield in time.
“If you have more resources, you more actively attack,” the senior official said. “If you have fewer resources, you defend more. We’re going to defend. That’s why if you ask me personally, I don’t believe in a big counteroffensive for us. I’d like to believe in it, but I’m looking at the resources and asking, ‘With what?’ Maybe we’ll have some localized breakthroughs.”
“We don’t have the people or weapons,” the senior official added. “And you know the ratio: When you’re on the offensive, you lose twice or three times as many people. We can’t afford to lose that many people.”
The U.S. is not going to ask if the "Ukraine can afford the losses". It will push for a large attack which will have little chance to even get out of its preparation phase.
Kupol, who consented to having his photograph taken and said he understood he could face personal blowback for giving a frank assessment, described going to battle with newly drafted soldiers who had never thrown a grenade, who readily abandoned their positions under fire and who lacked confidence in handling firearms.
His unit withdrew from Soledar in eastern Ukraine in the winter after being surrounded by Russian forces who later captured the city. Kupol recalled how hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers in units fighting alongside his battalion simply abandoned their positions, even as fighters for Russia’s Wagner mercenary group pressed ahead.
After a year of war, Kupol, a lieutenant colonel, said his battalion is unrecognizable. Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops.
“I get 100 new soldiers,” Kupol said. “They don’t give me any time to prepare them. They say, ‘Take them into the battle.’ They just drop everything and run. That’s it. Do you understand why? Because the soldier doesn’t shoot. I ask him why, and he says, ‘I’m afraid of the sound of the shot.’ And for some reason, he has never thrown a grenade. … We need NATO instructors in all our training centers, and our instructors need to be sent over there into the trenches. Because they failed in their task.”
He described severe ammunition shortages, including a lack of simple mortar bombs and grenades for U.S.-made MK 19s.
…
“You’re on the front line,” Kupol said. “They’re coming toward you, and there’s nothing to shoot with.”
Kupol said Kyiv needed to focus on better preparing new troops in a systematic way. “It’s like all we do is give interviews and tell people that we’ve already won, just a little bit further away, two weeks, and we’ll win,” he said.
Yes, Kiev, helped by 'western' media, is speaking of a victory that is unlikely to ever come. The view from the field is way different:
Dmytro, a Ukrainian soldier whom The Post is identifying only by first name for security reasons, described many of the same conditions. Some of the less-experienced troops serving at his position with the 36th Marine Brigade in the Donetsk region “are afraid to leave the trenches,” he said. Shelling is so intense at times, he said, that one soldier will have a panic attack, then “others catch it.”
The first time he saw fellow soldiers very shaken, Dmytro said, he tried to talk them through the reality of the risks. The next time, he said, they “just ran from the position.”
“I don’t blame them,” he said. “They were so confused.”
Yes, shell shock is real. Being under artillery fire is terrifying. Especially when you are a newbie, sit in a ditch without armor and with no way to respond to it.
Russian artillery supremacy is why Ukrainian losses are a multiple of those on the Russian side. But even if foot soldiers are available and well trained there is nothing that can make up for the loss of an army's backbone:
Ukraine has lost many of its junior officers who received U.S. training over the past nine years, eroding a corps of leaders who helped distinguish the Ukrainians from their Russian enemies at the start of the invasion, the Ukrainian official said. Now, the official said, those forces must be replaced. “A lot of them are killed,” the official said.
Replaced with what? It takes years to train a master sergeant or captain. These positions require experience in the field. No civilian training can replace that. Three week courses, run by 'western' officers with no real war experience, will not be able to make up for this:
Even with new equipment and training, U.S. military officials consider Ukraine’s force insufficient to attack all along the giant front, where Russia has erected substantive defenses, so troops are being trained to probe for weak points that allow them to break through with tanks and armored vehicles.
There will be no weak points. Or maybe there will be some, intentionally left open by the Russians, to draw the Ukrainian 'counterattack' in to then entrap it in one big cauldron.
It is over for the Ukraine. The Russian forces are enveloping Ukrainian units in several small cauldrons. Bakhmut is only one of them. South of it is the New York agglomeration which will become another one. Anviivka, further south, is also in big trouble and may even become the first of the three to fall.
bigger
Even the New York Times has started to notice it:
From Kupiansk in the north to Avdiivka in the south, through Bakhmut, Lyman and dozens of towns in between, Russian forces are attacking along a 160-mile arc in eastern Ukraine in an intensifying struggle for tactical advantage before possible spring offensives. Heavy fighting was reported on Monday in and around Avdiivka, a town that has been on the front lines for much of the past year and in recent days has once again become a focal point of combat.
…
In Bakhmut, where the Wagner private military company has seized control of the eastern side of the city, brutal combat is taking place in the streets, the blasted remains of buildings and deep underground in the warrens of mines, according to Russian military bloggers.
…
In Kupiansk and surrounding villages, Russia has stepped up shelling and probing ground assaults, and Ukraine has ordered civilians to leave. Russian shelling intensified in Lyman and other towns, as well. According to the Ukrainian military, Russian forces make more than 100 attempts each day to break through their lines.
With few people or intact buildings, the most hotly contested places have little left to offer beyond control of roads and railways that the Kremlin sees as important to its goal of seizing the entire eastern region known as the Donbas. The assaults may also yield better positioning for the next attack, intelligence about the other side’s positions and propaganda value.
Not mention by the NYT, but most important is that the Russian forces in all these attacks are destroying the Ukrainian army.
In a few weeks, after those three cauldrons have collapsed, the Ukrainian army will be on the run. It will be summer by then and the mud will have dried up. The Russian forces will then become more mobile which may even allow for wider 'big arrow' moves.
The only way for the Ukrainian army to counter those moves will be the use of the forces it currently prepares for a 'counteroffensive' as defense formations.
But even that will only give it another three month or so before the inevitable collapse arrives.
Thank you b.
TL&DR: AFU has entered an unsustainable irrecoverable death spiral, past tense …
Have been harping on this since Nov. The AFU as a combat effective & capable combined-arms Army ceased to be ~7-8 months ago. Everything since is struggling against predestination re the outcome. They’ve recently reached the point where they cannot runup up casualty replacements quicker than they are incurred even using press-ganged Volksturm with zero training.
A few hours, a day, 3 days, 3-4 weeks, does not a combat capable soldier make, especially in true high-intensity combat.
The AFU NCO/Officer cadre corps was shattered, gutted long ago. It cannot be reconstituted under current wartime conditions.
And here is the kicker, at the same time RF forces experience a concurrent opposite effect. Casualties yes, but at such a low rate re the entire manpower pool available that RF units are now progressively more competent & combat capable and with hardened veterans & NCOs/Officers that have been tested, tempered, and then rotated out of the line. A percentage of NCOs/Officers & specialists as well as promising/capable ranker soldiers, are continually drawn from experienced units and assigned to posts in green formations to rapidly pass on actual combat ‘lessons learned’ and provide stiffening, a core backbone to the units, so when they rotate into the line they are at least satisfactory & even more quickly tempered.
US/NATO is being forced to confront the disconcerting reality of a very formidable RF Army that is only getting more dangerous re the combat power & force multiplier re combat capability, battlefield experience & actual veteran status day by day. Both sides benefit from Command/Comms/Tactical/Technical/etc insights & lessons learned, only one Force is transitioning to Veteran high-intensity combined-arms combat status, and elements to Elite, as a nation State Tier 1 military.
The only reason AFU have stayed in the fight so far is because low quality troops can survive for a time due the combat power & benefit of static defense in heavily developed interlocking hardened fortified entrenchments built up & enhanced over very many years.
Once the hasty weak final defensive lines are breached, the AFU will, inevitably if conflict continues, be forced to conduct maneuver combined-arms warfare, without the materiel nor extant competency nor capability to do so …
IMV AFU has entered a death spiral since Dec’22/Jan’23 re manpower/materiel/logistics, let alone a virtually non-extant cadre corps. Human sandbags and wholly insufficient inadequate western frankenstien mix of salvaged derelict & obsolete discards that do not even begin to touch the sides of the massive materiel losses AFU has incurred, daily, for over a year, combined with the above …
The combat power & capability & the ability to competently exercise & apply it of each force (RF v AFU) has been exponentially accelerating from Feb24’23, in inverse proportion to one another.
Re-posted re effects consequence of ignoring extended combat without periodic line rotation, which by the way, said effects are proportionally magnified/compounded in relation to degree of insufficient/inadequate training & duration of non combat service experience, and yet again re inadequate/incapable cadre corps, Junior NCOs/Officers.
…
Not propaganda, very far from trivial consequences … in majority of cases re extended exposure, lifelong.
It is why competent modern Armies seek to limit a units time on the Line, especially so re high-intensity conflict, to a maximum continuous 60 days, otherwise…
As stated before, AFU holds brigades in the line for over five months or until bled-white, & if necessary enforced by OUN-B Nazi ‘Blocking Detachments’.
Hence non-wounded & recoverable WIA, become additional irrecoverable WIA, non-combat-effective, regardless … add the poor bustards to extant AFU casualty counts .
AFU in unsustainable casualties replacement JIT, death spiral …
Traumatic stress, an invisible wound, hobbles Ukrainian soldiers – The Washington Post, Mar10’23
Summarized commentary:
Post-traumatic stress disorder(PTS), panic and suicides – contrary to the propaganda statements of Kyiv, a real psycho-pandemic has begun in Ukraine. The Armed Forces of Ukraine classify information on the statistics of unauthorized abandonment of units and desertion, journalists of The Washington Post write.
However, according to the American publication, the problem of demoralization of Ukrainian militants is massive and already irreversible.
— Ukrainian soldiers experience severe symptoms of psychological stress, including nightmares, poor sleep, guilt, anxiety and panic attacks, according to interviews with military personnel across Ukraine and their psychologists. Some soldiers turned their weapons against themselves, committing suicide. <…> This problem is debilitating, widespread and excruciatingly difficult to treat in a country that – even far from the battlefields – is under constant threat of attack.
Although often invisible, widespread fatigue and mental trauma among soldiers is another difficult challenge for the Ukrainian military to face.
Referring to sources among officers, journalists note that the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are increasingly leaving their positions or surrendering to the Russian army. And those who are injured in military hospitals are trying to retreat from medical institutions, fearing to be on the Russian front again.
According to the publication, the spread of suicides, acute panic attacks, unauthorized abandonment of combat units is only part of the big problem of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine abandon weapons and flee to the Carpathians – or seek asylum in Poland and the Czech Republic, where Ukrainian refugee communities exist.
Peace
Posted by: Outraged | Mar 14 2023 12:12 utc | 20
A Russian perspective + analysis from the Wall Street Journal reporting on the battle of Bakhmut/Artemovsk https://www.kp.ru/daily/27476/4732869/
The West cannot explain the huge losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Artemovsk. And afraid of the truth
WSJ spoke about the heavy losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Artemovsk
Immediately, several leading publications of the Western countries suddenly became concerned about the large losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Artemivsk (the Ukrainian name is Bakhmut). The Wall Street Journal conducted its analytical investigation and found out the reasons for a much larger phenomenon – the general failure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Bakhmut. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to American journalists, are suffering defeats and suffering huge losses for the reason that they cannot bring ammunition and replenishment, as well as evacuate the wounded due to spring mud, which turned the land in the combat zone into muddy mud – a slurry of water and mud , through which only caterpillar vehicles can pass, and wheeled vehicles get stuck tightly, only driving into this mulyaku. Therefore, the wounded, without waiting for medical care and operations, die because of this.
No, we, of course, remember how Napoleon’s army, in tatters and women’s fur coats, put on over holey trousers, dumped into their homes. Later, according to Western historians, it was not the Red Army that delivered the decisive blow to the Nazis, but the notorious “General Frost”. Now, the culprit of the misfortunes and misfortunes of the Ukrainian army has been declared “General Gryaz” [General Mud].
The web is full of videos, like wheeled vehicles, the pride of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Western manufacturers turns into an absolutely helpless and motionless box, from which the soldiers get off and continue their journey on foot, moving in this knee-deep liquid mud. Even unpretentious armored personnel carriers get stuck, not like ordinary trucks and ambulances. There are other videos of how the Armed Forces of Ukraine go on tracked infantry fighting vehicles, but they go exactly to Bakhmut, and not from it.
But for some reason, all these analysts for some reason forget that, on the other hand, in the Russian trenches and in our positions there is exactly the same mule, and no less dirt. Only the Russian army is not yet on the defensive, but is advancing, which, in the conditions of the kingdom of Mulyaki, creates additional difficulties for advancement. And additional difficulties – this is too mild an expression to describe what it is like in an offensive battle half a pound of mud on each leg. When just moving forward by moving your legs is already difficult. And you still have to shoot, storm, take cover from enemy fire, etc. so do not sin on the dirt and the weather.
In fact, the heavy losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Artemovsk, and not only there, are caused by only two reasons – the effectiveness of our soldiers and the direct command of their troops by the commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is not dirt that drives new recruits to Bakhmut for slaughter, but generals Syrsky and Zaluzhny and the President (for now) of Ukraine Zelensky. It was General Syrsky who issued an official order so that slightly wounded soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine would not be evacuated to the rear to hospitals or at least medical battalions, but would return to service after dressings and minor operations. What happens to a hastily patched wound in the mud? That’s right, a bandage applied to blood poisoning is not a hindrance at all. And this is just one of the examples. And there are not even hundreds of them. The Ukrainian command is not at all concerned with the issues of saving the Ukrainians directly. Back in autumn, caring volunteers noted
The Ukrainian command near Artemovsk had two options – to withdraw troops or to give an order to surrender in order to save lives. But this does not suit either the generals or Zelensky. So, expand the fields for cemeteries. True, not now, but when it dries.
By the way, the American magazine American Thinker wrote here that the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine exceed 250 thousand people. Not near Bakhmut, no, but from the beginning of the NWO. And this figure is only irretrievable, that is, killed. Americans, by and large, have no reason to lie. They don’t care that Ukraine and Ukrainians exist, that they don’t exist. And it is very likely that the leadership of Ukraine, too. And this ratio does not depend on the state of the soil.
Alexander GRISHIN
Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Mar 14 2023 12:32 utc | 24
Regarding how the proxy Ukraine War, in Theater, will likely end, as opposed to the wider geopolitical conflict …
‘Little fissures’: The U.S.-Ukraine war unity is slowly cracking apart – Politico
Though President Joe Biden has pledged steadfast support, the U.S. has been clear with Kyiv that it cannot fund Ukraine indefinitely at this level
A tough week for U.S.-Ukraine news reveals an imperfect harmony
The United States and Ukraine have largely been in lockstep since President Joe Biden’s administration pledged support for “as long as it takes” in resisting Moscow’s relentless invasion.
But more than a year into the war, there are growing differences behind the scenes between Washington and Kyiv on war aims, and potential flashpoints loom on how, and when, the conflict will end.
“The administration doesn’t have a clear policy objective and a clear goal. Is it to drag this thing out, which is precisely what Vladimir Putin wants?” said Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “Is it to just give them enough to survive and not to win? I don’t see a policy for victory right now, and if we don’t have that, then what are we doing?”
Publicly, there has been little separation between Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, an alliance on full display last month when the American president made his covert, dramatic visit to Kyiv. But based on conversations with 10 officials, lawmakers and experts, new points of tension are emerging: The sabotage of a natural gas pipeline on the floor of the Atlantic Ocean; the brutal, draining defense of a strategically unimportant Ukrainian city; and a plan to fight for a region where Russian forces have been entrenched for nearly a decade.
Senior administration officials maintain that unity between Washington and Kyiv is tight. But the fractures that have appeared are making it harder to credibly claim there’s little daylight between the U.S. and Ukraine as sunbeams streak through the cracks.
… the Biden administration has signaled to Kyiv — much like it did when a car bomb in Moscow killed the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist last year — that certain acts of violence outside of Ukraine’s borders will not be tolerated.
…
&
China believes Russia will win the Ukraine conflict, soon …
Behind Ukraine peace proposal, China foresees end to war in summer – Nikkei Asia
Simulation by military academy prompts Beijing to push cease-fire plan
BEIJING — After avoiding getting too deeply involved in Russia’s war in Ukraine over the past year, China suddenly offered a peace proposal last month. Chinese military experts’ prediction that the war will come to an end this summer is likely behind this about-face.
When over 200 world leaders and senior officials gathered in Munich for last month’s security conference, Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, told the attendees that China would soon announce a plan to become a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The Academy of Military Sciences reports directly to the People’s Liberation Army. Although it cannot be found on a map, the institution is located in Beijing’s Haidian district, which itself is home to the ruins of Yuanmingyuan, a palace destroyed by Western armies in the 19th century.
The AMS regularly issues recommendations and reports to the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission, the highest decision-making body for China’s armed forces. A cabinet-level official heads the academy.
In December, the AMS completed a simulation on the Ukraine conflict, resulting in an astonishing finding, according to sources close to the Chinese government. The war will draw to a close around summer 2023, the simulation indicated, with Russia having the upper hand.
&
Kremlin explains its ‘only option’ (Military) in Ukraine – RT, swentr
In the absence of conditions for peace, military action is required to achieve Russian goals, Press Secretary of the President of Russia D. Peskov said
There are currently no conditions for a peace settlement in Ukraine, meaning Russia has no other option but to keep fighting, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has argued.
“The absolute priority for us remains and will always remain reaching the goals that we’ve set for ourselves (Dec’21). At this point in time, they can only be achieved through military means,” the official told journalists on Monday.
Peskov was reacting to an article penned by veteran German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger, who served as chair of the Munich Security Conference for over a decade. In a piece published by Der Tagesspiegel on Sunday, Ischinger urged Western leaders to “start thinking about a peace process now” and create a special political contact group for the Ukraine conflict.
“In addition to arms deliveries and financial support, we have to offer perspectives to the growing chorus of questions by critics,” he argued.
According to Ischinger’s proposal, the contact group would be led by the US, UK, Germany and France, with other nations and international organizations, including NATO, forming an “outer circle” of participants to lend legitimacy to any draft documents.
The group’s task would be to prepare a ceasefire agreement and other paperwork to form the backbone for a post-conflict period. It would work alongside the so-called Ramstein Group, which funnels Western military aid to Ukraine. Ischinger stressed that the new initiative would not put pressure on Ukraine to negotiate.
…
In essence, indisputable incontestable military defeat of the US/NATO/EU proxy Ukraine AFU on the battlefield & presentation of unconditional terms of surrender, IMV. See: Russia’s Three Objectives, officially declared, Dec’21.
Posted by: Outraged | Mar 14 2023 13:47 utc | 43
|
