New Bakhmut Report: High Casualties - Low Morale - Russian Tactics
Last week I explained why Bakhmut is falling. The piece included long excerpts from a piece published by Kyiv Independent. The reporter had talked with soldiers who had been at the Bakhmut front. Their description of the situation there was devastating.
Now a different reporter for Kyiv Independent has a somewhat similar report:
Battle of Bakhmut: Ukrainian soldiers worry Russians begin to ‘taste victory’
You should read that report as I will not fully cover it. But want to quote some passages as they nicely confirm my other recent piece about the real casualty rates of Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut.
Pulling away the propaganda and general sentiment stuff there is this:
Just days before heading back to fight in the Battle of Bakhmut, a Ukrainian soldier Volodymyr, 54, said he felt ill-prepared."When they drive us to Bakhmut, I already know I'm being sent to death," Volodymyr told the Kyiv Independent during his brief stay in Kramatorsk, a city in Donetsk Oblast some 25 kilometers west of the front line.
...
"(The Russians) keep firing at us, but we don't have artillery – so we have nothing to attack them back with," Volodymyr said. "I don't know if I will return or not. We are just getting killed."Ukrainian infantrymen interviewed by the Kyiv Independent described the fighting in Bakhmut as a desperate survival challenge against Russia's "infinite" stocks of artillery munitions and manpower. With just their machine guns and rifles, they say they braced relentless Russian mortar and artillery attacks until their hideout was eventually destroyed.
...
Valeriy, a Ukrainian infantryman, says that most of his fallen comrades were fatally wounded by projectile fragments."It's a pity that probably 90% of our losses are from artillery – or tanks and aviation," Valeriy told the Kyiv Independent a few hours after leaving the Bakhmut front. "And much less (casualties) from shooting battles."
Valeriy counted that "only a few" of the original 27 members of his platoon got out of the Bakhmut front with him, though he explained that most of them were wounded, not killed.
"The Russians have so many weapons, and there are so many of them," Valeriy said. "They are firing at us all the time. Sometimes, you hear an incoming every second."
Artillery is, as expected, the big killer in Bakhmut. While there are also many wounded the chances for them to eventually survive is not that big. Artillery wounds are notoriously unclean and slow to heal. There are allegedly Ukrainian orders that slightly wounded men must just be patched up and immediately send back to the front. Working in muddy battle trenches with notoriously bad sanitary conditions practically guarantees that those patched up wounds will then get infected.
The Russian artillery advantage is reportedly 10 to 1. Artillery is causing high casualty rates. Any claim that Russian casualty rates are higher than those on the Ukrainian side are defying the logical conclusion from those facts.
Back to the frontline:
Infantryman Vladyslav from the 58th Independent Motorized Infantry Brigade says many soldiers in his platoon have refused to go to Bakhmut as Russians came closer.Multiple soldiers from other brigades also said they’ve encountered many "refusers" who did everything not to be deployed back to Bakhmut.
During the last rotation in late February, Vladyslav said that only eight out of 25 soldiers in his platoon headed out to Bakhmut – and the rest said they couldn't go because of sudden fever or body pain.
The eight then headed to a position at a crossroad near the Bakhmutka River, where destroyed houses lined up. The platoon came under heavy Russian mortar fire as soon as they arrived.
Two were killed, and two were severely wounded – one soldier lost his arm, and the other was hit in the stomach by a projectile, Vladyslav said. The rest, including Vladyslav himself, received a severe concussion.
They were all evacuated from Bakhmut that day and lost the position.
That short engagement with 50% losses and severe concussions for the rest make reports of only 4 hour survival time in Bakhmut plausible.
The following description of the Russian style of fighting in Bakhmut is interesting. The tactic is designed to have as few casualties as possible. This also defies claims of 'human wave' attacks:
Infantryman Vladyslav said that the Russians would usually appear in a group of about five people at night, but they seemed "scared" to launch close-range attacks.So instead, the Russians would use mass firepower to destroy the houses – where the Ukrainians hid to monitor invading forces – to the point that they were forced to abandon the position to seek another position with better protection, according to Vladyslav.
"They are (now) fighting smartly, too," Vladyslav said.
Another soldier confirms the take:
Maksym, 33, an infantryman from the 5th Separate Assault Brigade, said the Russians also had an established tactic in the southern area near Bakhmut.The infantryman from Kyiv was deployed on the Ivanivske front, at the southwest outskirts of Bakhmut, throughout February 2023, where fierce fighting rages over a strategic village that sits on one of the key routes into the city.
Relying heavily on drones, the Russians would locate Ukraine's positions in the area. They would then fire multiple rounds of mortar and artillery, which would then be followed by infantry assaults, in an attempt to encircle Ukrainian soldiers, according to Maksym.
If the drones cannot detect Ukrainian positions, the Russians will send a few soldiers to fire gunshots until they hear return fire, according to Maksym.
As brutal as they may be, the Russian tactics have slowly worked and pushed back Maksym's unit by 1.5 kilometers in total throughout February.
It is a slow grinding business: reconnaissance-artillery fire, reconnaissance-artillery fire, reconnaissance-artillery fire-storm the position. Done well it leads to high losses on the defending side and small losses on the attacking one.
Source: Live UA map - bigger
For lack of other means the Ukrainian army will continue with its costly positional defense tactic:
The village of Ivanivske, which sits on the highway to Kostyantynivka and is located only eight kilometers from Bakhmut, is among the settlements Ukrainian forces are fortifying.A deputy company commander from the 80th Brigade, known under the call sign Third, told the Kyiv Independent that trenches were being dug out alongside the highway from Ivanivske to Kostyantynivka to prevent a Russian breakthrough in Ivanivske. The “operational pause” in the fighting in the areas further away from Bakhmut has been helpful to build fortifications.
"If the Russians capture Bakhmut, they will advance further to the south, to Ivanivske, then to Chasiv Yar, and further to the west," said Third, 45, who has served since 2014. "We are preparing in advance."
"At the moment, there is enough (defense)," he said of defending the rest of the region from Russians if Bakhmut falls. "But it's for now, and I do not know what the enemy will do next."
No one knows and that is the point.
Posted by b on March 15, 2023 at 13:16 UTC | Permalink
next page »And the meat grinder continues. Must be a lot of western "humanitarians" trapped in there that they are trying to protect such an, how did they say it..... insignificant town. This place can't be liberated fast enough.
Posted by: Watzov | Mar 15 2023 13:29 utc | 2
So much is happening so quickly (bank failures; Chinese diplomacy; Russian military advances), one can only sit back and wonder what things will look like by summer. The United States seems the proverbial deer caught in the headlights. ...And the latter has no reverse gear.
Posted by: Maracatu | Mar 15 2023 13:30 utc | 3
What happens next depends on the Ukrainians and where their line is weakest.
It should be noted the Russians are getting pushed away from chasiv yar, so ukraine is strong there.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 15 2023 13:30 utc | 4
Errata, I had meant to put the following link: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/15/paul-keating-labels-aukus-submarine-pact-worst-deal-in-all-history-in-attack-on-albanese-government
Posted by: Maracatu | Mar 15 2023 13:32 utc | 5
In the north west of Bakhmut, the assault detachments of the Wagner PMCs liberated the village of Zaliznyanskoye. Sources of the Military Chronicle report that during fierce battles, individual units of the 30th and 61st ombr suffered heavy losses and retreated from the settlement.
The liberation of Zaliznyansky opens the way for a simultaneous attack on the Bondarnoye—Vasyukovka border to the north from two sides: from Zaliznyansky and Krasnopol. This will make it possible to level the front line and improve the situation before further storming of the Seversk agglomeration.
To the south, fighting continues in Orekhovo-Vasilevka, where consolidated formations of 30 ombr, 71 ebr and 17 otbr, as well as the forces of the AFU's defense forces, are involved in the defense. Ukrainian units withdrew mortar and artillery crews to Malinovka due to the approach of the front line to the Minkovsky triangle, which includes Privolye and Golubovka.
🔻 In the north-west of Bakhmut, the Wagnerians moved a little towards Bogdanovka from Dubovo-Vasilevka. In addition, separate reconnaissance and sabotage groups of the Wagner PMCs are already operating between Bogdanovka and Khromovo.
▪️ Information about the release of Khromovo does not correspond to reality yet. The forces of the 93rd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine left the village in full force due to heavy losses, but the Russian units did not enter the settlement due to the massive shelling of its surroundings by Ukrainian artillery.
🔻 In Bakhmut, the Wagnerians continue to clean up the territory of the Artemovsky Non-ferrous Metals Processing Plant. After the liberation of the Vostokmash building, progress is being made deeper into the complex.
In the south, the assault detachments crossed Korsunsky Street and reached the center of the Airplane district. Battles are celebrated in the direction of the Bakhmut Industrial College
Posted by: Bakhmut | Mar 15 2023 13:37 utc | 6
Minimum, incomplete, low-ball KIA(only) 570+ ... Translated:
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation (15.03.2023)
In Kupyansk direction, the attacks, launched by Ground-Assault and Army aviation, as well as artillery of the 'Zapad' Group of Forces, have resulted in the neutralization of AFU manpower and hardware near Grianikovka, Styopovaya Novosyolovka and Timkovka (Kharkov region).The enemy losses were up to 70 servicemen, one armored fighting vehicle, three pickup trucks, two motor vehicles, one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, one D-20 howitzer, and one Polish-manufactured Krab self-propelled howitzer.
In Krasny Liman direction, the attacks, launched by Ground-Assault and Army aviation, as well as artillery and heavy flamethrower systems of the 'Tsentr' Group of Forces, have resulted in the neutralization of the enemy units near Terny, Torskoye, Grigorovka (Donetsk People's Republic), Chervonaya Dibrova and Nevskoye (Lugansk People's Republic).The enemy losses were over 235 Ukrainian servicemen, two armored fighting vehicles, four pickup trucks, one D-20 howitzer, two Akatsiya and Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems, as well as one U.S. manufactured M777 artillery system.
In Donetsk direction, the attacks, launched by aviation, as well as artillery of the 'Yug' Group of Forces, have resulted in the neutralization of up to 160 Ukrainian servicemen, one tank, one infantry fighting vehicle, two armored fighting vehicles and four motor vehicles.The attacks have also resulted in the neutralization of one Akatsia self-propelled artillery system, one D-20 howitzer, two Grad and Uragan MLRS, as well as one M777 artillery system and one U.S.-manufactured M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer.
Three ammunition depots of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have also been destroyed near Dachnoye, Galicynovka and Novosyolovka Pervaya (Donetsk People's Republic).
In South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, Operational-Tactical and Army Aviation, as well as artillery of the 'Vostok' Group of Forces have launched fire attack against the AFU units near Ugledar, Prechistovka (Donetsk People's Republic), and Scherbaki (Zaporozhye region).Moreover, one sabotage and reconnaissance group of the enemy has been eliminated near Novodanilovka (Zaporozhye region).
The enemy losses were up to 75 soldiers, three armored fighting vehicles, four pickup trucks and one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system.
In Kherson direction, as a result of the shelling the enemy losses were 35 Ukrainian servicemen, six motor vehicles and one D-30 howitzer.
Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralized 101th AFU artillery unit at their firing positions, manpower and hardware in 197 areas.Three radar stations of Ukrainian S-300 air defense missile systems have been uncovered and destroyed near Ukrainsk, Novodmitrovka and Krasnoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
Fighter Aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces has shot down one Mi-8 helicopter of Ukrainian Air Force near Uspenovka (Zaporozhye region).
Air defense facilities have intercepted 15 projectiles of HIMARS, Uragan and Olkha MBRLS, as well as 7 UAVs near Okop, Dvurechnoye (Kharkov region), Pervomaysk, Pokrovskoye (Lugansk People's Republic), Yegorovka (Donetsk People's Republic) and Balochki (Zaporozhye region).📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed (losses over previous 24hrs(+?)):
401 aircraft, (Daily avg 1.1)
221(+1) helicopters, (Daily avg 0.6)
3,425(+7) unmanned aerial vehicles, (Daily avg 8.9)
412 surface-to-air missile systems, (Daily avg 1.1)
8,303(+10) tanks and other armored combat vehicles, (Daily avg 21.8)
1,059(+2) multiple rocket launchers, (Daily avg 2.8)
4,363(+13) field artillery and mortars, (Daily avg 11.4) and
8,953(+29) special military vehicles. (Daily avg 23.3)
Comment:
Sustained ~50%+ increase in OP tempo in preceding 96hrs, further ~25%+ again in preceding 24hrs.
Very significant increase in ART/Mortar/MBRLS destruction as well as minimum claimed AFU KIA over preceding 48hrs.
Sustained significant ongoing destruction of soft-skinned vehicles for over a week now, accelerates already highly tenuous logistics train.
Doubt if many Ukies ever even sight a RF soldier or fire their personal weapon. Valkyries be busy.
What is being reported is less important than who is reporting (Kyivindependent.com in this case) and what their reporting history has been over the past year. A year ago, Kyiv Independent was all about students from the University driving out from Kyiv to blow up a few Russian tanks with Javelins before driving home to take a shower and talk to friends. Then Путин на хуй on Snake Island. Then the orcs were routed from Kharkiv and Kherson west of the Dnieper. Then talk of the spring offensive and of Zelensky being made Man of the Year by Time. Optimism and hope until recently. And now we have the report above.
Changing narrative merely proves something big has changed, not what has changed. Maybe Ukraine military is doing better now than a year ago and Kyiv Independent, because of some Byzantine-like political reasons, wants to throw shade on Ukraine military success. Though the more obvious conclusion is that things are going so badly now for Ukraine that Kyiv Independent wants to get ahead of events and protect itself from accusations it was spreading false hope and thus encouraging soldiers to throw away their lives needlessly.
Posted by: Revelo | Mar 15 2023 13:41 utc | 8
An absolute tragedy to be sure, but nothing seems to change Western minds?
Posted by: too scents | Mar 15 2023 13:41 utc | 9
It just doesn't add up that Zelensky won't order a retreat. Time is not on the side of the UAF. As the encirclement tightens, it gives Russia time to build some defense in depth for a potential counterattack or attempt to break through. That last highway is going to be taken by the Russians probably later today, or tomorrow based on the DPA map
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=pzwYqnqJnIw
Either they don't have the capability to retreat, or Zelensky's coke habit is leading to bad decisions. Possibly both.
Posted by: Chris | Mar 15 2023 13:45 utc | 10
@ Revelo | Mar 15 2023 13:41 utc | 8
Changing narrative merely proves something big has changed, not what has changed ... things are going so badly now for Ukraine that Kyiv Independent wants to get ahead of events and protect itself from accusations it was spreading false hope and thus encouraging soldiers to throw away their lives needlessly.
Quite. Though 'Kyiv Independent' propaganda rag has never been & is not now, Independent. The directives have filtered down from above, on behalf of the Big Guy, throughout the western MSM_of_Lies over recent months, and they will get evermore revelatory & negative as the preceding Propaganda narrative, turned up to 11, must be rolled back, rapidly. Time is short & of the essence ...
Posted by: Bakhmut | Mar 15 2023 13:37 utc | 6
IMO, capture of Khromovo is essential as it commands the heights in the area. Bogdanovka lies on another, parallel ridge to the north. I don't have a military background, but control of both elevations with the low areas in between should give the Russians a defensible position against future counterattacks. A little further north, Hyrohivka presents the same situation, sitting on another area of high ground. Control of all of these heights (and we're talking a few hundred feet of elevation change) gives the Russians a bulwark from which they can launch further operations.
Posted by: Mike R | Mar 15 2023 13:52 utc | 12
I just read the US statement concerning the reaper drone. Allegedly the Russian su-27 flew close enough to touch the reapers propeller.
That’s some precise piloting! Who had the helm, Tom Paris from Star Trek?
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Mar 15 2023 13:58 utc | 13
The Russian artillery covers the passage/fields west of Bakhmut and Bakhmut itself, but Ukrainian artillery has been pulled back beyond range of Bakhmut city area, somewhere behind Chasov Yar. Ukraine artillery may be able to fire on the Russian flanks, which extend SW and NW of Bakhmut city, but the Russian artillery, at least some time ago was east of Bakhmut. Ukrainians tried to make some counter-battery against Russian artillery earlier but apparently it hasn't had too much success and instead they have been hit back.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 15 2023 13:59 utc | 14
UK Budget dont bother lookin, nothing to see there then.
Except a small minded budget designed for a small minded audience fed on shit and kept in the dark about geo-politics.
A tranquilizer to sedate the British public while the Torys pick there pocket.
Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 15 2023 14:01 utc | 15
To give barflies an idea how desperate and unhinged US fake news media has become, early this AM it was reported on a national TV broadcast that the downing of the Reaper drone was done "unintentionally" and of course Russia was in critical condition due to severe lack of ammo.
tick tock
Posted by: chunga | Mar 15 2023 14:01 utc | 16
About "no-retreat" strategy: actually, so far it is rational. After a "retreat to better position", meat grinder would move to, the gain is not that obvious. Given reported fire-power advantage of the Russian side, Ukraine army still performs better then expected.
Existing positions apparently have advantages like efficient artillery support, even if sparse.
However, reports of woes of 54 year old soldiers point to severe depletion of demographic potential of Ukraine, which ultimately is a madness. Ukrainian attitude is that they want "occupied territories" back, without the population there as it consists of "traitors". But Ukraine "proper" looses the population. Next year we will read about woes of spry 60+ year old soldiers?
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 15 2023 14:06 utc | 17
[15] Mark 2
UK Budget dont bother lookin, nothing to see there then.
Except a small minded budget designed for a small minded audience fed on shit and kept in the dark about geo-politics.
Not sure why anyone should be as excited by Government Tax and Spending announcements as they are in UK where it is turned into media pantomime. Truly bizarre. It did not used to be so in 1960s.......it has become theatre like the rest of the media-scripted puppet show.
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Mar 15 2023 14:15 utc | 18
@ b, no one holds a candle to your stellar work. Deeply appreciated.
Last night Sy Hersh was at The National Press Club, hosted by The Committee for the Republic, carried live by Consortiumnews. In the 2 hrs 20 minutes of Q&A he had this to say:
via RT.
LINK
Seymour Hersh shares concerns about what US could do next in Ukraine conflict
Washington could clash with Moscow’s forces if Kiev starts to lose, the veteran journalist argues
The United States could get directly involved in the Ukraine conflict if it sees that Kiev’s forces are on the back foot, Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter Seymour Hersh suggested on Tuesday.
Speaking at an event in Washington, DC hosted by the Committee for the Republic, a non-profit organization, Hersh noted that the US “did stupid things” during the Vietnam War, and suggested that Washington could “start doing something else” in the Ukraine conflict.“I don’t know what happens if it goes bad for Ukraine, you have all this manpower,” he said, pointing out that the US has dispatched units of its 82nd and 101st elite airborne divisions close to the Ukrainian border, while “a lot of weapons and arms are coming” to Europe.
“I’m told the game is going to be: this is NATO, we are supporting NATO in offensive operations against the Russians, which is not going to fool the world… It’s us fighting Russia,” Hersh stressed, without disclosing his sources.[.] [emphasis mine]
“What the imbeciles will do next” --- And that’s the worry.
Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 15 2023 14:17 utc | 19
I recall that English chappie reckoning that 97% of the Russian army was in Ukraine. I’m coming to think that he meant that 97% of the Ukrainian army was in Donbas. Armed with shovels. Though I’d not underrate shovels. Useful things shovels. Used to dig trenches and can be used as battle axes. Seems WW1 soldiers preferred them to their bayonets. Of course you have to get up close to use them that way.
Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Mar 15 2023 14:28 utc | 20
LoL all those US/NATO boots on.the border will do nothing on their own.
They will get slowly ground to beef burger just the ukranians.
If US steps in it will be via other means. Stealthy and not. If they do step in they would need to attack Russian fleet in black sea. And of course that would mean nuclear armaggedon.
Posted by: Comandante | Mar 15 2023 14:30 utc | 21
In case you missed it, here's the photo that came with the Kiev Independent article -- a sad guy in a ditch -- representative of this whole sordid affair orchestrated by the US.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 15 2023 14:32 utc | 22
Just a couple practicalities. There are mines everywhere. Wagner advances slowly partially because sappers must clear mines.
Artillery has range. The sort of fire control Wagner has established over the roads is line of sight. Uke artillery can be a nuisance even if fired from Chasov Yar or Kramatorsk. No accuracy at that range. Given that RF is presently super averse to taking casualties random long range arty fire is taken seriously.
Posted by: oldhippie | Mar 15 2023 14:37 utc | 23
NYT has a long feature today on PTSD and rocketing mental health problems for UK forces. Shell shock. Horror. They are badly damaged. Metaphor for a failed nation project.
Posted by: Tobie | Mar 15 2023 14:39 utc | 24
@ Don Bacon | Mar 15 2023 14:32 utc | 22
---
The people pushing this conflict, and their slobbering followers, couldn't give a damn about sad guys in a ditch.
There is only one way to address their lack of empathy.
Posted by: too scents | Mar 15 2023 14:49 utc | 25
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💀 On the Situation in Bakhmut; Lots of New Successes - New Map⚡️🔹 Suburbs:
▪️ Wagner PMC units expanded the bridgehead for offensive actions in the northwestern direction, 👉 liberating the locality of #Zaliznyanskoye;
▪️ The advance of the "musicians" in the area of the previously occupied Dubovo-Vasilyevka village was about 1 km;
▪️ Fighting continues in the area of #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye).
🔹 Districts of the City:
▪️ Wagner PMC units continue to advance successfully through the AZOM industrial site.
▪️ In Sobachevka, the "musicians" have gained control of most of the area and are currently advancing towards Mariupolskaya Street.
▪️ In Budenovka, the "Wagnerians" have taken up the boundary of Mikhail Lyubov Lane.
▪️ Squares area has taken full control of the Wagner PMC units, who are now moving very close to Korsunsky Street and are fighting for an AFU stronghold at the intersection with Tchaikovsky Street.
▪️ In Vodokanal, "musicians" have entered the area and taken up positions in its southern part.
📌 Separately, it is worth noting that the advance of the Wagner PMC is taking place in the context of the ongoing "shell famine".
https://t.me/sitreports/5851
Posted by: Down South | Mar 15 2023 14:52 utc | 26
. . .from the Pentagon Puzzle Palace. . . a crucial time on a fight to threaten Russia's freedom
Opening Remarks by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III at the Tenth Ukraine Defense Contact Group
Mar 15
. . .But we are now at a crucial time in the course of Ukraine's fight for freedom. And we must all demonstrate our continued resolve and unity. That means following through on our commitments—fully and quickly.
We must provide Ukraine with full capabilities for the fight ahead, including the spare parts and maintenance packages to sustain the critical capabilities provided by members of this Contact Group.
So this Contact Group is focused on coordinating long-term sustainment.
We also need to find ways to get new donations of ammunition and air-defense systems to Ukraine. To increase ammunition production, members of this Contact Group are coming together to develop innovative solutions to industrial-production problems. And I'm confident that we'll continue to step up to meet Ukraine's needs into this spring and well beyond. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 15 2023 14:54 utc | 27
Posted by: Comandante | Mar 15 2023 14:30 utc | 21
Someone else posted to the effect of, the NATO-gang are snowflakes who wouldn't last a minute in a frontline trench with no "shock and awe" air cover. I wish I had the exact name but there are so many good comments to go through.
Also I think it was either @RSH or maybe @unimperator who posted a great link on how the US military did not really perform that great in Iraq. They relied on bribing the Iraqi generals to not fight, retreat, or flat-out desert.
What NATO might do when they run out of Ukrainians is simply implode. I really doubt anyone but special forces are capable of sustaining WWI conditions. They can try dirty tricks like color revolutions in Moldova, or move some forces into W. Ukraine and call them "peace keepers" when the Russians cross the Dnipr.
NATO is a paper tiger.
Posted by: Chris | Mar 15 2023 14:54 utc | 28
thanks b...
its brutal.... until the usa and friends back off - i suspect it will continue.. it might even ramp up if usa and friends want to throw more at it... it is a very sad state of affairs and i hold the usa and friends responsible for all of the death, destruction and non well being of the ukrainians...
Posted by: james | Mar 15 2023 14:57 utc | 29
Thank you b, for your always excellent work. This is all quite sad - the human tragedy of it all - and it all could have been avoided if only Russia turned its cheek another 49 times.
We should look at the for-profit, bandit Empire as in a very dangerous state right now. The facades are crumbling, the myth is dying, and all that is left is an old man looking in the mirror at the last throes of his heart pumping out exploitation and cruelty.
As Sy says, the US does very stupid things. Indeed the post WWII opportunity to build back better was squandered by vainglory, greed and the religion of Money. And so, we must prepare for the Final Stupidity, fast approaching, as more 'trains' derail and the wheels come off the clown car.
Posted by: gottlieb | Mar 15 2023 14:58 utc | 30
"The United States could get directly involved in the Ukraine conflict if it sees that Kiev’s forces are on the back foot,"
huh? i thought everyone knew they were going to lose from the git go
Posted by: ontoiran | Mar 15 2023 15:03 utc | 31
Mar 15 2023 14:54 utc | 27
"spare parts and maintenance packages"
someone sent tanks and guns with no logistics!!
outside the us dod there is very little 'logistics', the plan is 'reinforcements' from usa!
and usa logistics donations take away from the reinforcements.....
amateurs!
Posted by: paddy | Mar 15 2023 15:11 utc | 32
"a Ukrainian soldier Volodymyr, 54, said he felt ill-prepared"
Well effing right dude, you are 54 years old doing a job meant for young men ages 18-35 years old, but to the demons who rule DC/London you'll do just as well any rotting corpse.
The elite of DC/London today are as foul as an group in the 20th century and that is a hard bar to pass.
Posted by: S Brennan | Mar 15 2023 15:20 utc | 33
An RQ-4 Global Hawk next?
Same lake, same m.o., same logic, same message.
Sung to the same tune of Yankee Go Home?
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Mar 15 2023 15:21 utc | 34
The illegal "EU Ambassador to Ukraine" Matti Maasikas makes it clear that Ukraine is in Europe and Russia isn't. . .
quote: The EU has become truly geopolitical, which entails choosing sides – and the EU has chosen Ukraine´s side. No more “we call all parties…” kind of misleading – and mislead – talk....here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 15 2023 15:23 utc | 35
The Russians have created a 10km gauntlet, flanked by artillery, on the one road to Bakhmut. All they have to do is blast everything on the road until the defenders run out of ammunition, or Zelensky stops sending in reinforcements.
Posted by: Chrisitan Chuba | Mar 15 2023 15:31 utc | 36
The Russians have created a 10km gauntlet
Posted by: Chrisitan Chuba | Mar 15 2023 15:31 utc | 36
---
This in no way affects the hegemon pursuing this conflict.
Posted by: too scents | Mar 15 2023 15:39 utc | 37
S Brennan no. 33
But it's all slowly unravelling:
"SVB collapse may be start of ‘slow rolling crisis’, warns BlackRock boss
Larry Fink tells investors more ‘shutdowns and seizures’ in US possible and predicts inflation and interest rates to rise"
(Guardian 15 march)
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Mar 15 2023 15:40 utc | 38
A brief animated visual, accelerated timeline, of the envelopment of Bahkmut, only 1m11s. Well worth your time.
Translated:
The offensive along the front by the fighters of the PMC "Wagner" & flanking Russian units over the past few months in the Artemovsky(Bahkmut) direction. - Telegram, browse-able Open/Public link.
@ Chris | Mar 15 2023 14:54 utc | 28
NATO has negligible capacity & capability to go toe to toe with now veteran, optimized, kinks sorted, & lean & mean RF conventionally.
RF would be fully committed, all in, not merely using ~15% of it's ground forces, primary LPR/DPR formerly militia's. Since then ~300,000 trained active reservists mobilized, deployed forward, continual training cycles, yet STILL uncommitted in reserve, plus another ~70,000 mobilized trained veteran volunteers, same status, then there are the equivalent of ~50 Regular RF Divisions, 5 Airborne, including the Elite 1st Guards Tank Army(4 Divs+) on alert, & garrison duties, uncommitted.
RF has ~24.7Million trained reservists it could activate and simply deploy directly into combat from mobilization centers into battle directly from Line of March. And another inactive 2nd line reserves of ~25Million more.
US/NATO is derelict, it's deployed and dispersed through EU 9 ready reaction Brigades are merely a tripwire. The high readiness reaction Division, isn't, and would take more than 48hrs to form let alone deployment time. The possible two US Airborne Divs, are widely dispersed, are Light Infantry without dedicated Air Support & attached reinforcing Hvy Arms, and mandatory Air Dominance to conduct OPs re Doctrine will not exist. Reserves are ~3.5Million in total and would take weeks to months to mobilize with totally insufficient & inadequate arms & materiel. US/NATO doctrine & tactics as well as OP Planning is invalid, as they will not be able to achieve even contested air superiority, let alone Air Dominance over the battlefield vs RF ADS/RuAF.
Bundeswehr has ammunition for 2 days, UK till afternoon tea-time on the first day, France ~8 days. The rest of NATO, excluding Turkey(Defector) is even worse. Poland is writing bellicose belligerent rhetoric checks its military cannot cash. The Baltics are non entities & Finland cannot do a rehash of the Winter War or Continuation War with a snowballs chance in hell.
The entire actually operable, combat capable MBTS of US/NATO(Ex Turkey) amount to ~1200 best case. Amounts to ~53 days casualties vs ~15% RF, re SMO data, against 100%+ unrestrained ? RF can field ~18,000(IIRC) MBTs if needed & currently new production ~800(IIRC) latest T-90s per annum, concurrent with current gen upgrades/modernization/rebuilds of oldest bloc fleet of reserve war stocks T-62s.
US/NATO today is not the US/NATO standing toe to toe with USSR in the 80's. It's gone the same way as western industrial production & capacity over the last three decades.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 15 2023 15:23 utc | 35
Matti Maasikas is Estonian, which explains it. EU is a rogue, pretender non-entity, whose statements are irrelevant, comparable to any other man on the street or a private billionaire club. We’ll see what happens if/when Xi presents their ”peace plan”.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 15 2023 15:53 utc | 40
Austin as cited by Don Bacon @27:
"We must provide Ukraine with full capabilities for the fight ahead..."
Well then release all ready to go AFVs currently deployed to US Army troops garrisoned at home or in Europe along with their logistics IF you're serious. If you don't, it's obvious you're just blowing smoke out your ass and are lying yet again.
The US said it brought down the damaged drone after it became "unflyable" when a Russian jet clipped its propeller.
Here's a rear view of a Reaper. It is possible for another aircraft to hit the prop underneath from the rear, I suppose.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 15 2023 15:59 utc | 42
Assad is meeting Putin today in Moscow and said the following:
"Now I want take advantage of the moment because this is my first visit since [starting] special operations in Ukraine, and repeat the Syrian position in support of this special operation against neo-Nazis and old Nazis. I say 'old' and 'new Nazis' because the West both accepted old Nazis on his land, [so] now he has become theirs support, at the present time. Our position comes not only from the friendship between us and the devotion that exists between us. Our position is based on the fact that the world really needs it now in stabilization, otherwise it will go to some big rumble."
Assad is absolutely correct.
@ karlof1 | Mar 15 2023 15:54 utc | 41
re: Austin
Is the US in good hands with Austin?
Biden has revealed that he illegally selected an Army general to head US "defense" because of his Biden-observed expertise in evacuating from Iraq in 2011. Then Austin headed the disorderly Afghanistan withdrawal, and now the Ukraine fiasco. Pitiful, really.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 15 2023 16:08 utc | 44
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 15 2023 14:32 utc | 22
Thanks for the photo https://api.kyivindependent.com/storage/gettyimages-1247907838-1678837996LESqc-1080x1080.jpg
Almost exactly the same as photos from the trenches in World War 1 in the Somme, except the trenches were wider, and even more kids were dying in war. My grandfather actually survived it, only to die shortly later of appendicitis (sod's law).
What's the difference here, 105 years later?
"Generals gathered in their masses
Just like witches at black masses
Evil minds that plot destruction
Sorcerer of death's construction
In the fields, the bodies burning
As the war machine keeps turning
Death and hatred to mankind
Poisoning their brainwashed minds"
Why not arrest these evil "elite" malthusians instead?
Or are we all deer and sheep to be culled by multiple methods - queuing up to get shot?
Needle and the damage done or the gun?
Posted by: tonyopmoc | Mar 15 2023 16:13 utc | 45
@unimperator | Mar 15 2023 15:53 utc | 40
EU is a rogue, pretender non-entity
Exactly. The EU is a bloc of nations which has no standing under the UN Charter which states: "the organisation is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its members'.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 15 2023 16:16 utc | 46
For months I have heard that Bakhmut is the "linchpin" of the Ukrainian defense.
If this is the case, Russia's mobilization rate across the Donbas will accelerate as Bakhmut falls.
Actually, it already looks as if Russia's pace in taking territory has increased in the last week.
Posted by: young | Mar 15 2023 16:17 utc | 47
I say 'old' and 'new Nazis' because the West both accepted old Nazis on his land,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alois_Brunner
After some narrow escapes from the Allies in the immediate aftermath of World War II, Brunner managed to elude capture and fled West Germany in 1954, first for Egypt, then Syria, where he remained until his death..................The Syrian government under Hafez al-Assad came close to extraditing him to East Germany before this plan was halted by the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989. Brunner escaped all attempts to capture or kill him and was unrepentant about his activities. During his long residence in Syria, Brunner was reportedly granted asylum, a generous salary and protection by the ruling Ba'ath Party in exchange for his advice on effective torture and interrogation techniques used by the Germans in World War II
Until the early 1990s, he lived in an apartment building on 7 Rue Haddad in Damascus..........In 2011, Der Spiegel reported that the German intelligence service Bundesnachrichtendienst had destroyed its file on Brunner in the 1990s, and that remarks in remaining files contain conflicting statements as to whether Brunner had worked for the BND at some point...........
Died 2001 Damascus
Foreigners who left the neighbuoring main road into the alleyways, especially George Haddad Street, were often approached by stern looking guards asking about their business. An unconvincing answer could easily end in a beating, an arrest or deportation.
In one whitish-yellow corner building, No.22, there was an apartment belonging to the Syrian government. It housed minor dignitaries, foreign military advisors and other guests. Some of those, we now know, were Nazi war criminals on the run.
Franz Stangl, the commandant of the Treblinka extermination camp, lived there for a while in the late 1940s before escaping to South America. He was replaced by a stiff-necked German named Kurt Witzke, who worked for a while as an advisor for the Syrian Army, then retired to spend his days as a language instructor. To supplement his meagre income, Witzke looked for a sub-lease. One day, probably in 1955, he was approached by a moustached Austrian with dark complexion, who showed interest in the apartment and introduced himself as “Dr. George Fischer.” Witzke admitted him immediately, without realizing that his tenant was in fact Alois Brunner, one of the vilest Nazi fugitives on earth. Outwardly, Brunner led a quiet life, represented the interests of several German firms in Damascus, produced homemade sauerkraut and raised rabbits on his rooftop. In fact, he was a mercenary and arms dealer.
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Mar 15 2023 16:18 utc | 48
Prigozhin going at it again, today posted his usual individual Q&A, asked about Vagner -sorry Germans that's the spelling in Russian, there is no W in the Russian alphabet- asked about Vagner ads in pornosites like PornHub and how appropriate that is, this is his answer, machine translated:
"I do not know which ones, but placing ads for PMCs Wagner on porn sites is a very good idea of our marketeers. I absolutely completely agree with them, and this advertisement says: "Go to war in the Wagner PMCs, stop jerking off." Who does not agree with this argument?".
Besides his populist tocuch Prigozhin takes another indirect swipe at Shoigu praising him, plus commenting the new law punishing the discredit of the Special Operation participants:
"The new law on the prohibition of discrediting volunteers was, among other things, initiated and supported by me with the following purpose: those prisoners who participated in the SMO should not be constantly responsible for their past. Attention, it is the past. If they are committing any offenses now, then you can talk about it as much as you want, I think so. Also, I believe that the law on discrediting should not apply to the commanding staff, namely to me, to the Minister of Defense, to other leaders who, among other things, make or may make mistakes in their own. It is necessary to say about them what society considers necessary. Only the soldier is holy. Therefore, the soldiers do not need to be touched.
As for the claims that may arise against me, I am not discrediting anyone. I speak only the truth and have all the evidence, including documented, this is the first. And secondly, all my statements are checked by lawyers, and therefore I carefully choose my expressions. Of course, anyone can be put in jail, and me too, but in this situation, we should not forget that 146 million Russians can be put in jail, and this is the way to nowhere."
Populist? he has started his campaign for the New Ukraine presidency.
Posted by: Paco | Mar 15 2023 16:21 utc | 49
Chris @10:
It just doesn't add up that Zelensky won't order a retreat.
The Neocons who brought down the pro-Russia government were Jews. All presidents since have been Jews. Jews are 0.2% of Ukraine, but this is their old homeland, the Pale of Settlement. Most of the oligarchs are Jews. Zelensky is a Jew. In 2014 Wayne Madsen wrote of the Jewish plan to have Ukraine as the new Israel, particularly as a fallback if Palestine was lost to them.
Sergei Glazyev, the Russian financial planner, who is half-Ukrainian, mentions he had never met a Nazi in Ukraine. But in the last decade the media, which is owned by Jews, seems to have made Nazis out of many Ukrainians. Zelensky claims to fear for his life from these Nazis should he show any lack of resolve against Russia. These Nazis make sure ordinary Ukrainians are sent to fight and get killed. The Russians are determined to kill all the Nazis. Jews, with their habit of nurturing resentment, hate Slavs for the destruction of their Khazar empire. Here, it is Slav killing Slav and clearing out Ukraine. Half the population has fled. Jews through their various financial fronts have now bought up many of the resources of Ukraine including 16000 square kilometres of arable land (more than Italy has).
Whatever rump is left of Ukraine will be part of NATO. Zelensky has already spoken of Ukraine as the new Israel.
Hassan Nasrallah, whose words command respect in Israel, said recently that "the end of this fake regime is so close that it may happen at this stage." So Ukraine. One more "land without a people for a people without a land."
So, it quite adds up that Zelensky won't order a retreat.
Posted by: sarz | Mar 15 2023 16:23 utc | 50
Followup to @ Outraged | Mar 15 2023 15:44 utc | 39
The entire actually operable, combat capable MBTs of US/NATO(Ex Turkey) amount to ~1200 best case(Excluding CONUS lengthy deployment to European Theater, unmolested). Amounts to ~53 days casualties vs ~15% RF, re SMO data. Hence, even granting 3 x IFVs/APCs lost per 1 x MBT, would be 212 days battlefield losses, essentially negligible production capacity re replacement of materiel losses.
Against 100% commitment of available current deployed RF Forces (Excluding ~24.7M/~25M active & inactive reserves), unrestrained conflict conduct of offensive OPs, as opposed to current ~15% restrained & limited Slow-SMO, likely total loss, destroyed in ~43 days or so. There is also the slight problem of sufficient & available POL & Tank Main Gun ammunition(& myriad caliber/make IFV Auto-cannon ammo) for them to actually conduct & sustain high-intensity combat operations (including IFVs) beyond 2-4 weeks, likely best case ... likely less. Artillery, Air, logistics, maintenance & sustainment ?
Is the US in good hands with Austin?
The man looks like a janitor.
US has a Third World Officer Corps - you know the type of people who can engage in money-making in uniform but have no ability to earn a living without wearing one.........and Lloyd Austin is standard issue -
Austin became the commander of CENTCOM on March 22, 2013, after being nominated by President Obama in late 2012.
This promotion came at the direction of Admiral Michael Mullen, then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. While Director, Austin was told by Mullen to increase the diversity of the Joint Staff. Austin credited the appointment as having jumpstarted his later career, saying: "People who might not have known Lloyd Austin began to know him."
During his tenure, he was responsible for the appointment of multiple African-American officers to the highest ranks of the military, including the appointment of General Lloyd Austin, now the first black secretary of defense, as Director of the Joint Staff
SO the object of the exercise was to promote Blacks to starring roles........and Mullen did his job for Obama and was re-appointed........the whole thing is Politics and Optics exactly as Douglas MacGregor has stated
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Mar 15 2023 16:28 utc | 52
Lady G gives some advice. Likely her son has a deferral?
Veteran US senator urges downing Russian warplanes
President Reagan would be doing it right now, after the loss of a Reaper UAV over the Black Sea, Lindsey Graham claims.
RT
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has suggested opening fire on Russian fighter jets that intercept US drones, after one such encounter ended with an MQ-9 Reaper plunging into the Black Sea on Tuesday.“What would Ronald Reagan do right now? He would start shooting Russian planes down, if they were threatening our assets,” the veteran hawk told Fox News, while commenting on the incident.[.]
Nevermind the several ongoing implosions within:
hobby balloons; trains derailing spilling toxic PSAS chemicals; USTs are worthless; banks collapsing as Moody place "a negative outlook"
And big banks are not immune. Timber for Credit Suisse as its biggest investor says, We are done helping:
Credit Suisse shares plunge
The Swiss lender’s biggest backer, Saudi National Bank, has ruled out further assistance
{ My NB: the RF sanctions are backfiring big time}
On Tuesday Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second-biggest bank, published its annual report for 2022 saying it had identified “material weaknesses” in controls over financial reporting and not-yet-stemmed customer outflows.[.][this tidbit]
Customer outflows in the fourth quarter totaled over 110 billion Swiss francs ($120 billion).Executives at major banks in Switzerland have warned that the country’s decision to support Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia is having a negative impact on their business, Financial Times reported on Thursday.[.]
OOOPPS.
$5 billion was not enough to triage.
Is lady G aware CS is a G-SIB - a global systemic important bank - and that ALL are interconnected? Looking at the 5 US banks with a combined $188 trillion of derivatives.
Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 15 2023 16:39 utc | 53
@ 52 Austin
Then there is Austin's pathetic service as CENTCOM Chief who testified in a 2015 Senate hearing that the US plan to train thousands of Syrian opposition soldiers which had cost half a billion dollars resulted in "4 or 5" trained people on the battlefield.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 15 2023 16:42 utc | 54
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Mar 15 2023 16:18 utc | 48
Dear Paul,
They lost and soviets won. Had soviets lost the story would be the same. Instead of Brunner you were talking about some Kuznetsov or Ivanov.
Posted by: Roberto | Mar 15 2023 16:45 utc | 55
reply to 50
I don't think we need to rely on conspiracy notions about Zelensky's ethnicity. It should be sufficient to realize that the world is closing around him. He is running out of options. Losing Bakhmut now would be a political disaster, even more than a military one. Begging for more cash and weapons is starting to fall on deaf ears. Losing could rapidly lead to re-evaluations in the US and EU.
Besides that, there is the enormous loss of life to justify as graveyards overflow. He must win or all those men died for nothing. I don't know how his position will end or how he will end or whether his people will see him as a fool or a traitor.
Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 15 2023 16:46 utc | 56
You have to feel for the Ukrainian who has suffered so much. No mater who wins in Bakhmut the every day Ukrainian looses. A win for Ukraine means a big win for the current oligarchs. Furthermore if Ukraine wins most of the common people will end up landless neo serfs to corporate vacant landlords. Western Corps will burn up the top soil to get a quicker return on investment. Sadly the people will be massively injured and have no safety net because of the way international loans were setup. The landless surfs will end up with nothing. On the other hand if Russia wins serf if you do and serf if you don’t.
It is hard to understand why they choose to die leaving behind destitute wives and children.
Posted by: ATM | Mar 15 2023 16:46 utc | 57
"Russia plans to recover wreckage of US drone downed over Black Sea"
‘I certainly hope for success,’ says senior Kremlin official of hopes of raising debris from seabed west of Crimea"
(That's if people in a hired yacht haven't got there first)
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Mar 15 2023 16:49 utc | 58
S Brennan @ 33 / ThusspakeZarathustra @ 38
But it's all slowly unravelling
The derivative exposure is probably bigger today than in 2008, absolutely nothing was done to reign that in, in fact when they reinflated the bubble the derivatives is what they reinflated.
Those have yet to unravel, if it's going to crash this time they'll try to stretch it out a bit at a time unlike 2008, each event given time to go down the memory hole, which is like two weeks these days.
Expect some big bank somewhere to unravel from derivative exposure soon. They might just hide it like the hid the repo crisis in 2019. If a tree falls in the forest and no one hears it...
They are doing there best to create that deaf forest:
DHS efforts are already underway to add censorship of "financial misinformation" to CISA's portfolio of "critical infrastructure" domains it can classify tweets as a cyber attack on, & thus censor.
https://twitter.com/ShellenbergerMD/status/1635132887040421889
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 15 2023 16:58 utc | 59
@ 53
re: RF sanctions are backfiring
Sanctions have always affected not only the sanctioned country but others as well, buyer and seller. The extensive sanctions against Iran for decades, for one example, hurt not only Iran but also the European (mostly) countries which were doing business with Iran. Like Peugeot, for example, a family car company which got run out of Iran.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 15 2023 17:00 utc | 60
"... it is a very sad state of affairs and i hold the usa and friends responsible for all of the death, destruction and non well being of the ukrainians..."
@james | Mar 15 2023 14:57 utc | 29
What really pisses me off is that we (Canada) are besties if we are talking friends of the Ukrainian fascists.
I grew up believing Canada was a socialist as opposed to fascist country. Apparently I was mistaken.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Mar 15 2023 17:01 utc | 61
@50 yes the depopulation of ukraine is proceeding apace. Population is way down and the millions in the EU aren't going to leave, and the EU is the dumping ground for Israel's inconvenient populations, like the Syrian refugee wave.
Well so be it. Europe needs bodies for its wars anyways so those young single males that swarmed in are going right back into the fire anyways
And now they can breed the Ukrainian women that also swarmed in.
It's a plan coming together.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 15 2023 17:07 utc | 62
@Chris
The link:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the-iraq-war-was-a-sham
I think that Simplicius overstates the case a little, but just a little. The US had 450,000 troops and another 150,000 allied troops. Overwhelming air superiority, Iraq was using antiaircraft flak cannons instead of missiles. He linked a documentary made from embedded reporter footage:
And it shows Iraqi forces surrendering without a fight many times.
The article is very much worth reading.
What worries me is that the US is psychologically unprepared to deal with a defeat. There is so much censorship, fake news, fake intel, hubris and chest pounding in the US that I expect serious cognitive issues when reality rears its ugly head.
For example Larry Johnson wrote this:
Where he talks about US intel claiming that Ukraine is winning. It reminds me of the Kubler-Ross 5 stages of grief, stage 1 denial. The sonar21 article is not unique. I could cite a dozen other examples of the press, politicians, generals, or analysts waxing poetic about how great everything American is, from HIMARS to intel to our financial might, cough CVB cough.
I worry that the people in charge have committed the cardinal sin of believing their own propaganda and that they will simply refuse to understand that they don't run the world like they think they do. It could lead to some epically ruinious mistakes.
Posted by: team10tim | Mar 15 2023 17:41 utc | 63
“What the imbeciles will do next” --- And that’s the worry.Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 15 2023 14:17 utc | 19
What else will put an end to this confict and to the grip of the US administration over Europe. If the current war in Ukraine is in fact a proxy war between the US and Russia and if it is in fact the first operation of a larger US deployment against Asia, then a Russian victory against Kiev is not going to end the current US-Russia conflict. I believe Russia does not want to exhaust herself fighting Kiev. The Kiev-Russia fight is just a practice for the Russian military and it is at the same time a good source of information for China. Maybe Kiev will end up understanting that they are being abused by Washington and Kiev will seek dialogue with China as a mediator to stop the military operations. I still believe Putin does not wish to integrate Western Ukraine to the RF, by force or otherwise.
The only way for the US administration to change her own attitude is for the US to lose a direct military battle against Russia. I bet Russia is ready for that eventuality although they are not looking for a direct clash with the US if they can avoid it. If the Minsk accords were a device for Kiev to gain time to build an army to regain the Donbas and Crimea, the SMO was also a device for Russia to bring her own military up to speed and ready to face the US military. A US military defeat will likely end that war in Ukraine for good.
Posted by: Richard L | Mar 15 2023 17:43 utc | 64
I grew up believing Canada was a socialist as opposed to fascist country. Apparently I was mistaken.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Mar 15 2023 17:01 utc | 62
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/05/16/vxen-m16.html
Posted by: Drinky Crow | Mar 15 2023 17:52 utc | 65
I grew up believing Canada was a socialist as opposed to fascist country. Apparently I was mistaken.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Mar 15 2023 17:01 utc | 62
The biggest mistake most people make is believing there's a hair's worth of difference between the two.
Posted by: Phil R | Mar 15 2023 17:52 utc | 66
The Reaper plot thickens. . .from 1945
According to EUCOM, Russian pilots have been acting aggressively against NATO manned and unmanned aircraft for a while now.
Back in the fall, a Russian fighter jet had launched a missile against a British spy plane but without finding its target. Since then, British fighter jets have been accompanying any non-armed aircraft flying missions around Ukraine. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 15 2023 17:57 utc | 67
Dear Paul,
They lost and soviets won. Had soviets lost the story would be the same. Instead of Brunner you were talking about some Kuznetsov or Ivanov.
Posted by: Roberto | Mar 15 2023 16:45 utc | 56
Dear Roberto,
I suspect you might be 'off the wall' as they say
Assad makes some comment about the West and Nazis
I refer to Syria harbouring Eichmann's right-hand man and other Nazis
You make reference to Germany having been defeated which is WHY Alois Brunner had to go on the run.........
It is not WHY he just had to be in Syria training the Syrian Secret Police and being a gun-runner
SYRIA provided REFUGE to NAZIS which suggests Assad looks a bit stupid making such comments
Are you really unable to comprehend ?????
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Mar 15 2023 17:57 utc | 68
Latest news from Bakhmut is that Russians have taken full control of the road connecting Bakhmut and Ivanivske. That's the last road for a quick retreat of the Ukronazis toward Chasiv-Yar. So basically they have completely surrounded NATO's Ukrainian proxy forces on all sides. In spite of Mr. Seymour Hersh's warnings, not much the US could do in the face of a Russian victory. Nearly 90 percent of the world is now fully supports Russia. If the US makes another foolish decision to actually fight in Ukraine, it might as well get ready to engage militarily against both China and Iran, simultaneously.
Posted by: maskazer | Mar 15 2023 17:59 utc | 69
@ team10tim | Mar 15 2023 17:41 utc | 64
What worries me is that the US is psychologically unprepared to deal with a defeat.
Not a problem. The US has been starting and conducting wars for over fifty years without winning. The money continues to flow, is the main thing.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 15 2023 18:03 utc | 70
The biggest mistake most people make is believing there's a hair's worth of difference between the two.
Posted by: Phil R | Mar 15 2023 17:52 utc | 68
That's a pretty disingenuous thing to declare. Are you sure you understand the definitions of the two things: fascism and socialism?
Posted by: irish al | Mar 15 2023 18:05 utc | 71
@Don Bacon | Mar 15 2023 15:59 utc | 43
They would not risk an SU-27 that way. Probably a short range EW system like Khibiny or whatever that fried the drone electronics.
Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 15 2023 18:06 utc | 72
@Posted by: Phil R | Mar 15 2023 17:52 utc | 68
"The biggest mistake most people make is believing there's a hair's worth of difference between the two [socialism and fascism]."
The biggest mistake is to pay any attention to this utterly derisible trope based in a complete misrepresentation/misunderstanding of the two. Fascism is what capitalism does when it can't fully manufacture consent, it needs to revert to an authoritarian religious nationalism - Gramsci detailed this very well with respect to Franco's Spain, Mussolini's Italy and Hitler's Germany. The capitalists make out like bandits under fascism.
Posted by: irish al | Mar 15 2023 18:05 utc | 73
Yes, I think I do. And it's not an either/or, or if you're against one you are automatically for the other. Socialism in its many and various forms has been responsible for the oppression, starvation and deaths of tens of millions of people over the last century. This doesn't make Fascism any better or more attractive, but let's not try to oversell the attractiveness of socialism either.
Posted by: Phil R | Mar 15 2023 18:18 utc | 74
David G Horsman @62
When one calculates the power of the Bronfman and Thompson interests, it becomes possible to contemplate the state of political reality in Canuckistan. One must ALWAYS bear in mind the economic powers backgrounding the political clowns who face the video cameras.
Even back in the 70's, there were only some five or so national banks present in the vicinity of Portage and Main in downtown Winnipeg. That informed me even back then that Canuckistan was and even more now is a highly centralized regime...a Dominion in more ways than one.
The status of a newly created republic needs must replace the governor-general and Crown lands reality.
Posted by: Northlander | Mar 15 2023 18:22 utc | 75
I grew up believing Canada was a socialist as opposed to fascist country. Apparently I was mistaken.Posted by: David G Horsman | Mar 15 2023 17:01 utc | 62
I will add that, as a grown up, I now see it as a fact that prominent elected politicians do not work for their constituency as much as they care for their own career and their pension. They look to me as arrogant, poorly informed, narcissic hypocrites believing what they say and praising highly the person they see in the mirror.
I thought politicians were people of the compromise who aimed at making society move forward. Serving others, as Zelensky believes he does, is already a hard proposition; finding out what is "forward" is the most difficult part of the job. So they act like sheeps and they follow the trend, the party line. The world of many politicians is the world of perceptions and not the world of facts. Politics often ends up being a game of rhetoric and good looking - good feeling postures. The reason is that it sometimes is easier to "engineer" the popular beliefs than to tackle real problems. Deception, big lies and repetition ad nauseam are now part of the devices many politicians use daily.
Posted by: Richard L | Mar 15 2023 18:31 utc | 76
Not a problem. The US has been starting and conducting wars for over fifty years without winning. The money continues to flow, is the main thing.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 15 2023 18:03 utc | 72
“The money continues to flow, is the main thing”……….
Until it doesn’t. This time is certifiable different.
The USA daily essentials are financed by foreigners buying USTs. But then Biden self-inflicted when he seized RF’s $300 billion foreign held Reserves and the USD is no longer considered a safe currency. Even for Central Banks. Hmmmm...
Had you access to the RT link at my Post 54 you would have read;
[.]Executives at major banks in Switzerland have warned that the country’s decision to support Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia is having a negative impact on their business, Financial Times reported on Thursday.The unnamed banking officials told the media outlet that rich clientele from China are seriously worried about depositing their money in Swiss banks, after Bern ditched its policy of neutrality by freezing billions in Russian assets as part of sanctions.
Huh, let's not pretend all is well. Let this sink in for a second.
In the midst of the War, [US v.Russia] the money flow is drying up. US needs, for starters, $3 trillions to cover trade and budget deficits.
Did I mention bailing out the banks?
FDIC just raised the alarm bells asking for someone to cover the $675 billions of unrealized (USTs) losses the banks are holding. Oh, and the promise to cover the uninsured depositors is a whole other kettle of fish trillions. Looking at cool $30 trillions.
The Powell-Yellen team has two options;
1. Save the banks OR
2. Save the dollar
Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 15 2023 18:52 utc | 77
As early as February 1916 at Verdun, the German Army perfected ("?") the science of attrition - probing infantry attacks supported by massive firepower. On the face of it, this does not much look different from the current Russian modus operandi.
Of course back in the day, the French were able to massively reinforce in men and artillery, and the Germans became obsessed with taking and holding ground, rather than shedding French blood. So the situation devolved into the bloodbath known by history - or at least the history written by the "winners".
If - IF - the RF have avoided that this time around then it is to their credit. However it is not possible to successfully attack strongly fortified positions without taking losses - that at times will be serious. But these are off the book Wagner losses on the whole so "don't count". Nevertheless it is far from unusual for defenders in these circumstances to suffer more than their attackers. The key point though is that the attackers will incur losses and at times they will be heavy. S*%t happens in war.
Big picture here though is that both sides are refitting and regrouping reserves, but the Russian ones are far bigger and unengaged; and probably the Ukrainian ones are being fed piecemeal into a positional attritional battle. And the Ukrainians are certainly losing this battle, depleting reserves of men, equipment and munitions - possibly their morale - and unable to gain the initiative, simply reacting to RF moves. However I believe the UAF reserves (such as may exist by now) by and large are un-engaged though some clearly are.
All of this futher swings the balance of forces away from any sort of Ukrainian "victory. However there needs to come a point where the "shaping" phase finishes and the "big red arrow advance begins".
Posted by: marcjf | Mar 15 2023 19:05 utc | 78
@ Likklemore | Mar 15 2023 18:52 utc | 79
---
Currencies are always collapsed. Always.
Is there any example where the banks were sacrificed to save the currency?
Posted by: too scents | Mar 15 2023 19:20 utc | 79
All of this would have been much more believable if you had not said that Bakhmut has already fallen for over a week now. The Soledar-wing of the Wagner PMC is getting sorely pushed.
Posted by: Fnord73 | Mar 15 2023 19:27 utc | 80
Russians still manage to expand northwest and west of Krasnogorovka and they managed to get some T-90M in there as well to support it. Seymour Hersh said that US is close to doing "stupid things" as situation gets worse.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 15 2023 19:59 utc | 81
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 15 2023 19:59 utc | 83
Krasnogorovka... meant Krasna Gora (north of Bakhmut)
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 15 2023 20:00 utc | 82
@82 fallen victim to his own propaganda.
Surprisingly one can get accurate information from Wagner. They said it would fall sometime between April and may, and 3 years to hold all the annexed territory.
But China wants peace by summer? Feels like a tug of war.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 15 2023 20:25 utc | 83
Posted by: Drinky Crow | Mar 15 2023 17:52 utc | 67
Thanks for the WSWS article on Canadian fascism/Ukraine/Russia.
Posted this in the old Ukraine O/T but it seems to have died, so I'll just quickly put it here. The only available footage (so far) of the drone incident yesterday over the Black Sea. At first viewing it looked like a black object of some kind had been dropped from the Sukhoi flying out of (above?) frame near the drone, but now it just looks like a visual artifact or optical illusion. I'm not talking about the two separate little watermarks or whatever you call them, but the oblong black oval/circular shaped disc or ring that appears to pass the camera on its port side and the drone on its starboard. Nothing conclusive in this video other than that it's definitely an MQ-9 reaper and not a Global Hawk as a couple of us speculated yesterday.
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/noPRW1nVEraJh5w2:d
If anyone wants to discuss further, I'll check the Ukraine O/T periodically.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 15 2023 20:32 utc | 84
Posted by: Outraged | Mar 15 2023 15:44 utc | 40
Very nice recap of the military balance. As I've said before, anyone who knows the military balance between two opponents can predict the outcome of the war, at least where the disparity is obviously sufficient, absent any surprises or major screwups by the dominant party. And while surprises aren't rare in war, they are not usually sufficient to alter the military outcome when clear superiority exists in the military balance.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 15 2023 20:42 utc | 86
Are All linked together by some evil force with mass powers of psychological control… Is it a mental disease or SATAN
Posted by: tonyopmoc | Mar 15 2023 18:38 utc | 78
Only Satan has the demonic will and angelic intelligence to drive so many people who are so geographically distant and in so many disparate roles to such simultaneous chaos and evil.
Posted by: Ciaran | Mar 15 2023 20:42 utc | 87
Colonel Douglas Macgregor's latest in The American Conservative.
The Gathering Storm
America’s self-inflicted trouble in Ukraine aggravates our dangerous trouble at home.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/the-gathering-storm/
(And yes, I checked and it does appear to be the real American Conservative site, not a scammer... But YMMV)
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 15 2023 20:44 utc | 88
@ too scents 81
Yes, agreed over time currencies end at zero.
Thingy is the USD is the World's reserve currency - unlike its predecessor the GBP, all commodities are priced in USD up until its Death Certificate was signed by KSA's Finance Minister, January 18, 2023.
Place of Death: Davos, Switzerland
Cause of Death: Arrogance, an exceptional disease.
In financial circles this crisis is now described as "Banking Crisis 3.0" with the double whammy of de-dollarization.
Financial analysts proffer there are two options available - save the banks by reversing interest rate hikes and print another $30 trillion (repeat 2009) or save the dollar by keeping rates high as de-dollarization accelerates -- the chickens (euro dollars) are coming home.
Printing trillions to save the banks and lower interest rates (a must to save the banks’ losses because they hold worthless USTs) with the double whammy de-dollarization, reluctance of foreigners to hold USD means a devalued currency.
The US' self-inflicted fatal wound was the weaponizing of the USD.
See: Welcome to Banking Crisis 3.0
Interesting question what is the value of the USD in 2023?
(USD is considered the cleanest of the dirty currencies, for now.)
Have fun with the Inflation Calculator
LINK
Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 15 2023 20:45 utc | 89
Military summary today repeated that Russians have boxed in large Ukrainian tank elements into a semi-circle type cauldron against the small river between Bodarne and Vasyukivka. Ït has apparently one or two bridges out, both of which could soon be under artillery fire control. At the same time, they have split the Ukrainian grouping into three sections. They also took the highest hill along the M-03 highway, expanding zone of control further west, Orikhovo-Vasilyivka.
In Bakhmut, the Russians should control northern part of the village of Kanal basically putting Bakhmut under effective encirclement. The rumor goes UAF still has the 12k army in Bakhmut.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 15 2023 20:56 utc | 90
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 15 2023 20:56 utc | 92
Not Kanal, meant Khromove.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 15 2023 21:01 utc | 91
Posted by: marcjf | Mar 15 2023 19:05 utc | 80
I’d argue that traditional fortifications in the 21st century have both had their effectiveness boosted and reduced by the devolution of technology. The former, because their ability to delay forces has increased due to the the assaulting units having to be dispersed; but reduced, because this dispersion necessarily leads to fewer overall casualties, whilst the defenders have become more exposed.
It would be an interesting experiment to revisit battles that revolved around fortifications and see how effective the defences would have been against 21st century technology.
Posted by: Milites | Mar 15 2023 21:29 utc | 92
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 15 2023 20:42 utc | 88
Especially when that dominant party has used the technological revolution to create a devolved correlation of forces model, whose predictive abilities are increasingly accurate due to real-time updating of it’s database.
Posted by: Milites | Mar 15 2023 21:40 utc | 94
Posted by: team10tim | Mar 15 2023 17:41 utc | 64
You raise excellent points. I'm reminded of reading Isaac Asimov's Foundation series many years ago, and the dialogue in it whereby there was a discussion between members of the Foundation during its infancy regarding the treaty that the Empire negotiated with its outermost provinces, ones that were basically independent as the Galactic Empire had just started to contract.
The Empire's Ambassador had reassured them that the Empire was still in control of things, and that the treaty itself was an affirmation of that, as the Empire would never deal with anyone who didn't recognize the Empire as supreme. But then the members of the Foundation put the very lengthy treaty under a strict semantic analysis, and came to a startling conclusion.
The treaty made no promises to the Empire, and offered it no guarantees. It was in effect just a fig leaf for the Empire to hold up so as to save face as it quietly let a region on its periphery alone to do its own thing, while keeping the Empire's fleet of ships back within the Empire.
I see this as analogous as to how the United States will eventually deal with Russia. The US will be able to hold up a great facing document wherein Russia agrees to stop hostilities, to pull back its forces, to agree to allow monitors on the front lines, to allow humanitarian aid to travel freely, to free prisoners, and to participate in relief efforts.
The American media will spin that as a surrender of sorts, a thwarting of Putin's ambition, but the reality will be that by that time Russia will have already secured all the territory it wants to have in its control, and destroyed over 90% of Ukraine's heavy equipment such as tracked vehicles, artillery, air defenses, and manned aircraft. Ukraine's economy would be on total life support, requiring more money every month just to sustain the most basic necessities than the West would be all that willing to provide.
Russia would also have gotten, publicly and in writing, and privately with the most solemn of hand shakes, an agreement that Ukraine would become neutral, and demilitarized. And Russia would agree to such a deal only on the condition that the sanctions against it immediately began to cease, and would cease totally in short order.
America would have its victory, Russia would get what it wanted, and Ukraine would be left "in tatters", to quote the term that The Duran likes to mock.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Mar 15 2023 21:40 utc | 95
@ Babel-17 | Mar 15 2023 21:40 utc | 98
interesting and telling nick :-)
your projected outcome would have some similarity with the Cuba Crisis
( which began and ended with deployment/retraction of ballistic missiles in Eastern Italy and Anatolia.)
Posted by: MAKK | Mar 15 2023 21:49 utc | 96
Posted by: Babel-17 | Mar 15 2023 21:40 utc | 98
Not going to happen. Russia will not agree to anything until it achieves its overall security needs. I've described what that means repeatedly here.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 15 2023 22:01 utc | 97
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 15 2023 22:01 utc | 100
Posted by: Babel-17 | Mar 15 2023 21:40 utc | 98
"Russia will have already secured all the territory it wants to have in its control, and destroyed over 90% of Ukraine's heavy equipment such as tracked vehicles, artillery, air defenses, and manned aircraft. Ukraine's economy would be on total life support, requiring more money every month just to sustain the most basic necessities than the West would be all that willing to provide.
Russia would also have gotten, publicly and in writing, and privately with the most solemn of hand shakes, an agreement that Ukraine would become neutral, and demilitarized. And Russia would agree to such a deal only on the condition that the sanctions against it immediately began to cease, and would cease totally in short order."
For emphasis I'll double quote "secured all the territory it wants to have in its control". That indicates that they're not done until they're done, which seems reasonably equivalent to your stipulation that "Russia will not agree to anything until it achieves its overall security needs.", or at least the most important/first part of getting that. And I went on to list other ways that Ukraine would have become neutralized.
Afaik the above doesn't contradict what Russia has said and implied regarding what it needs to achieve. Sure, it could go for more, and gain military dominance over all the territory of Ukraine, and actual physical possession of Odessa, but the bigger gains would come with larger and more protracted risks, and a lot more death and human suffering.
Putin is a realist, and imo likely has a realistic sense of being mortal, and would like this war wrapped up sooner rather than later, and while he can be reasonably sure of being alive to lead Russia through the end of the conflict, and its aftermath.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Mar 15 2023 22:18 utc | 98
Posted by: Babel-17 | Mar 15 2023 22:18 utc | 101
I'll reiterate what I said. Nothing you said agrees with Russia's stated security requirements, which were spelled out in the December, 2021, treaty proposals.
There will be absolutely no agreement without Russia controlling all of Ukraine and putting a Military District in western Ukraine to counter the NATO increased threat from Poland and the Aegis Ashore installations there and in Romania.
As Scott Ritter has said, anything less than that means Russia has lost the war.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 15 2023 22:36 utc | 99
@ Babel-17 | Mar 15 2023 22:18 utc | 101
---
The conflict will continue until one side or the other is broken. Utterly. Spiritually.
It has nothing to do with territory. The conflict is about ideas.
Posted by: too scents | Mar 15 2023 22:36 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
The answer is “more of the same”, until that doesn’t work anymore. It is obvious that the NATO side will run out of Ukrainians before the RF runs out of munitions.
My question is “What will the US/NATO do?”
Posted by: Ciaran | Mar 15 2023 13:24 utc | 1