Ukraine War – The Upcoming Duel Of Speeches

February 14, 2023

Next week will see a speech duel between President Putin and President Biden.

On February 21 the president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin will hold his State of the Nation Address in the Federal Assembly:

The president delivered his previous address to the country’s parliament in April 2021. Putin explained that there had been no State of the Nation Address in 2022 because the situation was unfolding very quickly and it was difficult "to fix the results at a specific point, as well as specific plans for the near future." However, crucial messages were included in other presidential speeches.

Before the speech Putin will have a talk with leaders of the opposition parties. Another meeting with the president of Belarus, Lukashenko, is also planned. Russian analysts expect that some serious announcements will be made.

The speech will come exactly one year after the speech that announced the recognition of the Luhansk and Donetsk republics as independent states.

While Putin will be speaking U.S. president Joe Biden will be in Poland where he will also hold a major speech:

President Joe Biden will visit Poland this month to mark the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, returning to the region as the war enters a volatile new phase without a clear path to peace.

The president is planning to visit Poland from February 20-22. The White House said he would meet Polish President Andrzej Duda and other leaders from the region. He’ll deliver remarks ahead of the official anniversary on February 24.

“He wants to talk about the importance of the international community’s resolve and unity in supporting Ukraine for now going on a year,” said John Kirby, the strategic communications coordinator at the National Security Council.
…
Biden’s aides have been planning for several weeks how they will mark the anniversary of the invasion, including potentially a major address. They hope to emphasize the resilience of the Ukrainian people while stressing the importance of unity in the uncertain months ahead.

There are concerns that Poland might want to intervene in the war in Ukraine by, for example, occupying its western oblast. Will Biden give his okay for that? A significant number of former Polish soldiers are already fighting in Ukraine as 'mercenaries'. At the end of last year Poland announced that would recall up to 200,000 reservists for training:

The draft regulation presented by the Ministry of Defense states that the proposed figures are a maximum limit that cannot be exceeded, and do not guarantee that the proposed plans will be carried out.

The Biden visit comes at a time when there is serious concern about the length of the war and the sustainment of 'western' support:

Despite promises to back Ukraine “as long as it takes,” Biden officials say recent aid packages from Congress and America’s allies represent Kyiv’s best chance to decisively change the course of the war. Many conservatives in the Republican-led House have vowed to pull back support, and Europe’s long-term appetite for funding the war effort remains unclear.
…
Underlining the importance of the moment for the administration, Vice President Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas are heading to a major security summit in Germany this week and President Biden is traveling to Poland next week for a speech and meetings on the first anniversary.
…
The critical nature of the next few months has already been conveyed to Kyiv in blunt terms by top Biden officials — including deputy national security adviser Jon Finer, deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman and undersecretary of defense Colin Kahl, all of whom visited Ukraine last month.

CIA Director William J. Burns traveled to the country one week ahead of those officials, where he briefed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on his expectations for what Russia is planning militarily in the coming months and emphasized the urgency of the moment.

At the same time, Biden and his aides are eager to avoid any sign of defection or weakening resolve by Western allies ahead of the Feb. 24 anniversary, hoping to signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin that support for Ukraine is not waning.

NATO is running of out ammunition and will not be able to support the war much longer:

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Monday that Ukrainian forces are using significantly more ammunition than the alliance’s members can produce, putting a strain on Western stockpiles.

“The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions, and depleting allied stockpiles,” Stoltenberg told reporters ahead of a NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels.

“The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production, and this puts our defense industries under strain,” he added.

This of course to Russia's advantage. It can delay the end of the war as long as it wants. At some point the 'West' will run out of ammunition and money for the war and will have to sue for peace.

Posted by b on February 14, 2023 at 16:53 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Posted by: Et Tu | Feb 15 2023 11:27 utc |
Russia is use to being defeated in print, often by those it was victorious over, just as Germany is treated as the victor by those who defeated her. Russia will win by fighting the way that is most effective for her, taking into consideration all her strengths and weaknesses. If you read any accounts written by successful Russian commanders they are under no illusions about their forces shortcomings and, contrary to the Western stereotype, competent at adaptation during combat.
Russia will win, the template to her victory will not be familiar to most western amateurs and, more worryingly the military professionals, and they will make up for this shortfall by creating a semi-fictional account for her victory (e.g. Post WW2 analysis). It will be interesting to follow the evolution of this academic account as more information becomes available to challenge the ‘official version’. At the moment though, we are most definitely following the: human waves, incompetent leadership, inflexible doctrine, sub-standard weaponry and myriad other tropes that populated the first accounts of the Eastern Front. This bias we be heightened by many of the authors being members of the AFU, with the accounts of those who defeated them marginalised and ignored for being ‘propaganda’.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 15 2023 17:28 utc | 301

Posted by: rk | Feb 15 2023 16:16 utc |
Assuming that the AFU can neutralise the three battalions guarding the arsenal, how will they transport the ammunition back to Ukraine? A rough calculation suggests over 500 HGV’s would be needed, which might be hard to conceal and protect, now that opsec has been compromised. Also, if the Russians were/are running short of ammunition why haven’t they been using these stores? They did after all transport/destroy 20,000 tonnes before the conflict.
Perhaps the truth is that this is a cynical attempt to deceive front-line troops that victory is only delayed, not a vanishing prospect.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 15 2023 17:54 utc | 302

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 15 2023 11:44 utc | 261
Exactly. There was some speculation about creating “artificial” earthquakes via a nuclear explosion below the surface. But – if I remember correctly – these could not go beyond 5 on the Richter-scale. At least not without a massive amount of preparation (e.a. bigger nuke and deeper).
Then again placing such a nuclear device very close to a tectonic hotzone may do the trick. (Which reminds me of Lex Luthor’s plot of the 1978 “Superman”-film.) But this actually working is also unproven – e.a. it has never been attempted.
Besides, should the speculation or any suspicion reach concrete levels the pressure on the United States would be massive. As this not only violates a number of nuclear arms-treaties, it’s also – most certainly – an open (kind of) attack on a NATO-member – Turkey.

Posted by: Karl1906 | Feb 15 2023 17:58 utc | 303

Posted by: Et Tu | Feb 15 2023 13:45 utc | 286
I see a worst case-scenario which basically ends with another decades-long cold war. But this time it’s an iron curtain on the side of the Western part of the world. Enforced by whatever is left of military force of the EU and NATO. And focused on a massive amount of surveillance and suppression of the population – as well as an arms race to push this along (think North Korea). (Though this is also rather unlikely considering the overall economic situation of the West in this scenario.)
Anyway, in this case it doesn’t matter who writes history books as those published in the Western part of the world are pure propaganda and worthless (e.a. like those books being currently written). And the history books written by other nations… well, we’re most certainly not allowed to read them here anyway.

Posted by: Karl1906 | Feb 15 2023 18:11 utc | 304

A look at the current list of participants (official latest as of 13 February): no Biden, no Nuland, no Sullivan and even no Blinken will be attending this event. I couldn’t find Austin either.
Looks like an 85 year old elephant is sitting in the room. According to the list, the USA is represented by Vice President Harris, General Williams and General Hokanson. Perhaps prominent figures will announce their participation later or will be busy with NATO meetings, who knows.
Posted by: Konrad | Feb 15 2023 6:03 utc | 214
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That’s very interesting. Those that control Biden and this Administration understand that they cannot dispense with him – a necessity given his obvious infirmity and burgeoning scandals – without dispensing of Harris first. Newsome, or some other preferred 2024 successor or placeholder, needs to be installed into the VP slot before Biden can be removed. This Munich conference might just be the perfect opp to stage a major false flag event and solve a tricky complexity to the Biden/Harris electoral “problem”. Yeah, it’s tinfoil hat stuff. But after seeing what happens to disposable people (JFK, RFK, Vince Foster, Ron Brown, Richard Helms, Seth Rich to name just a few), and understanding the evil that permeates the globalist oligarchy … I don’t think ANYTHING is too far fetched for these demons. Kamala better keep her wits about her (as dull as they may be).

Posted by: Drake Schroeder | Feb 15 2023 23:05 utc | 305

Meant William Colby, not Richard Helms above. Oops.

Posted by: Drake Schroeder | Feb 15 2023 23:08 utc | 306

@psychohistorian | Feb 15 2023 6:36 utc | 218
>>Our host is living in a country that has colony status within
>>empire and is just as responsible as I am living in the face of
>>empire, America. Germany has been manipulated and financialized
>>in the same way America has been
Manipulated, yes. But still, I have to disagree with you on Europeans
(Germans in particular) being any kind of victim here. You may call
my experience with them anecdotal, but it is long-term, first-hand,
and consistent. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall they see themselves
as the legitimate winners of world history. A separate, European,
identity has been mostly erased (they’re getting Black History Month
now for chrissakes!): they’re subjects of the Empire now, so they
damn sure want this Empire to rule the world. They even imagine themselves to be the real brain trust of the “liberal superpower”, on behalf of being “more civilized” than the Americans; though I guess that impulse was more pronounced during the Trump era than at present. Macron, Scholz, etc do what they do because their owners tell them to, yes, but also because it’s popular with broad majorities–more so in Europe than the US. This will only change when the victory narrative is decisively shattered by Russian firepower.
Ask if it doesn’t bother them that, say, bombing Syria uninvited might be a war crime, and they reply “Yeah, and? Nobody is going to touch us. And they’re only Arabs over there anyway.” This, and full-spectrum anti-Russian hate, is quite compatible with being good anti-racists, as long as they watch mangled woke versions of the classic movies on Disney+.
Bottom line: yes the elites have primary responsibility, but those elites reflect and are sustained by wider society. Don’t fall for it when they play innocent. In spite of the MSM cocoon spun around them, they still have the same information available to them as people elsewhere–they just don’t want to know it. People who have armed fascists in Ukraine for eight years if not longer, and then still open a big mouth about “the Lessons of History”, need to be slapped around a bit for their own good. Odds are, they will be.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 16 2023 4:58 utc | 307

Richard Steven Hack @ 166
You have it backwards. Qui bono applies to the alleged crime, not the source of the leak. Whether Whistleblower’s motives are irrelevant. For example, the leaked Hillary Clinton e-mails that revealed the DNC cheated Bernie Saunders in the 2016 election. Qui bono, the motive for the DNC collusion was misdirected to quo bono for hacking Hillary’s e-mails, et voila, the Russian election interference narrative was born and the DNC collusion was forgotten.

Posted by: Willow | Feb 16 2023 5:21 utc | 308

@Bahtman | Feb 15 2023 12:03 utc | 267
>>Russian telegram channels have insinuated that the historic
>>reunification of Russia and Belarus will be announced on February 21.
That would be terrible optics. Lukashenko abandoned his fence-sitting (more fancily, his multi-vector policy), becoming a loyal Russian ally instead. If the result would be, as you claim, that Luka is losing his job, and the Belarussians will see their country getting gobbled up, that will scare everybody out of getting too close to Russia for a long time. I can’t believe the Kremlin doing anything this stupid at such a sensitive time; but, we will see.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 16 2023 5:28 utc | 309

@Et Tu | Feb 15 2023 13:45 utc | 286
Much of what you say resonates with me. American (sometimes) HIMARS crews are firing American missiles, targeted with American intelligence to kill Russian soldiers, the higher in rank the better. The Dark Throne is openly boasting about this. And the response in say Syria is … protests? Some tribesmen shaking their fists at American columns? Like that’ll help. I also (would like to) believe that had Russian deterrence functioned properly, the West would’ve never dared to start this Ukraine adventure. But on the flip side, more and more the West is similarly aggressive against China, and I hope nobody thinks that they’re soft and coddly. Maybe historians are right that this is simply the nature of declining empires, and it can only be managed but not prevented.
These are not academic. I think with all their provocations, the US is systematically (and rather skillfully) conditioning Moscow to acquiesce to a tripwire force in Odessa. Russian warnings that the 101st Airborne will get hurt may not look credible to Washington, when there just is no precedent for Moscow taking the gloves off to such an extent. I don’t know if it’ll work, but if it does then “slower is better” will have failed for Russia just like it did in East Syria.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 16 2023 7:52 utc | 310

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 16 2023 7:52 utc | 313
I think the difference between US crew manning Himars and a US air borne unit in Odessa is, well, nothing. Himars are being destroyed when they can (they have long range beyond front line so it means much more area to search which means they are relatively more safe vs. front line artillery) so they survive more. US special forces will die just like the rest of them in front line combat.
It all pivots on Donbass battle, though. Ukraine is standing to the last ground and not retreating, while it prolongs battles, it will also increase chance of destruction. Then the focus will shift to south, Zaporizhe, Ugledar, Dnipro and finally Odessa. Albeit all this can take much longer yet to play out.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 16 2023 8:10 utc | 311

@unimperator | Feb 16 2023 8:10 utc | 314
>>I think the difference between US crew manning Himars and a US
>>air borne unit in Odessa is, well, nothing.
How about: deniability? With those HIMARS crews Russia can still say
“Oh sorry too bad, we didn’t see that they were American from drone
altitude.” And for all I know that may even be the truth, especially
if only some of the crews are American, and they are in Ukie or
at least nondescript/”volunteer” uniform. This fiction that NATO isn’t
involved directly may also suit Russia, so that they can give NATO a
bloody nose but not yet too bad, without either side getting forced
into undesirable escalation.
But if you bomb/shell the 101st, then you damn sure are at war with the USA. Never mind you did it in a place where that 101st had no business to begin with. Anyway, we will see.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 16 2023 8:27 utc | 312

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 16 2023 8:27 utc | 315
That’s academic speculation IMO. Potentially US could send their forces to somewhere UA frontline, but I don’t see any reason of doing that. Just personally I think Russia gives zero consideration “of potential war with US” if Nato flagged force is in Ukraine.
There was last year speculation that US will ram an invasion fleet through Bosphorus straight and attempt to land on Crimea or Odessa. That has long since died down, just another example of hyperbolic propaganda or idiocy by British media. They might do that if they destroyed Black Sea fleet, which they were and are probably hard trying to do. Now the plan is this spring offensive force in the south made up of Leopard tanks and whatever T-72/T-64/T-55 they still have left. We’ll see soon.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 16 2023 8:41 utc | 313

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