Ukraine War – The Upcoming Duel Of Speeches

February 14, 2023

Next week will see a speech duel between President Putin and President Biden.

On February 21 the president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin will hold his State of the Nation Address in the Federal Assembly:

The president delivered his previous address to the country’s parliament in April 2021. Putin explained that there had been no State of the Nation Address in 2022 because the situation was unfolding very quickly and it was difficult "to fix the results at a specific point, as well as specific plans for the near future." However, crucial messages were included in other presidential speeches.

Before the speech Putin will have a talk with leaders of the opposition parties. Another meeting with the president of Belarus, Lukashenko, is also planned. Russian analysts expect that some serious announcements will be made.

The speech will come exactly one year after the speech that announced the recognition of the Luhansk and Donetsk republics as independent states.

While Putin will be speaking U.S. president Joe Biden will be in Poland where he will also hold a major speech:

President Joe Biden will visit Poland this month to mark the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, returning to the region as the war enters a volatile new phase without a clear path to peace.

The president is planning to visit Poland from February 20-22. The White House said he would meet Polish President Andrzej Duda and other leaders from the region. He’ll deliver remarks ahead of the official anniversary on February 24.

“He wants to talk about the importance of the international community’s resolve and unity in supporting Ukraine for now going on a year,” said John Kirby, the strategic communications coordinator at the National Security Council.
…
Biden’s aides have been planning for several weeks how they will mark the anniversary of the invasion, including potentially a major address. They hope to emphasize the resilience of the Ukrainian people while stressing the importance of unity in the uncertain months ahead.

There are concerns that Poland might want to intervene in the war in Ukraine by, for example, occupying its western oblast. Will Biden give his okay for that? A significant number of former Polish soldiers are already fighting in Ukraine as 'mercenaries'. At the end of last year Poland announced that would recall up to 200,000 reservists for training:

The draft regulation presented by the Ministry of Defense states that the proposed figures are a maximum limit that cannot be exceeded, and do not guarantee that the proposed plans will be carried out.

The Biden visit comes at a time when there is serious concern about the length of the war and the sustainment of 'western' support:

Despite promises to back Ukraine “as long as it takes,” Biden officials say recent aid packages from Congress and America’s allies represent Kyiv’s best chance to decisively change the course of the war. Many conservatives in the Republican-led House have vowed to pull back support, and Europe’s long-term appetite for funding the war effort remains unclear.
…
Underlining the importance of the moment for the administration, Vice President Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas are heading to a major security summit in Germany this week and President Biden is traveling to Poland next week for a speech and meetings on the first anniversary.
…
The critical nature of the next few months has already been conveyed to Kyiv in blunt terms by top Biden officials — including deputy national security adviser Jon Finer, deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman and undersecretary of defense Colin Kahl, all of whom visited Ukraine last month.

CIA Director William J. Burns traveled to the country one week ahead of those officials, where he briefed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on his expectations for what Russia is planning militarily in the coming months and emphasized the urgency of the moment.

At the same time, Biden and his aides are eager to avoid any sign of defection or weakening resolve by Western allies ahead of the Feb. 24 anniversary, hoping to signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin that support for Ukraine is not waning.

NATO is running of out ammunition and will not be able to support the war much longer:

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Monday that Ukrainian forces are using significantly more ammunition than the alliance’s members can produce, putting a strain on Western stockpiles.

“The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions, and depleting allied stockpiles,” Stoltenberg told reporters ahead of a NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels.

“The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production, and this puts our defense industries under strain,” he added.

This of course to Russia's advantage. It can delay the end of the war as long as it wants. At some point the 'West' will run out of ammunition and money for the war and will have to sue for peace.

Posted by b on February 14, 2023 at 16:53 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Jerr @ 198
Thanks for this reference, I hadn’t recalled this set of events from 2019. On the link you provided there is a time lapse map of the shocks and aftershocks. It appears the first shock was close to and intersection of faults 90deg to each other. Aftershocks of the first followed the adjacent fault lines until the second bigger quake was triggered. The Turkey situation appears slightly different since the two faults are more parallel and don’t appear to intersect.
See sat map of ground movement – https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64603521
The second (Elbistan) quake was even shallower and potentially caused more damage than the larger initial one. Residents of Elbistan say the first quake caused the collapse of only a handful of buildings but the second caused almost complete destruction. Would be good to see a similar time lapse of fore/aftershocks for these two quakes.

Posted by: MG | Feb 15 2023 4:00 utc | 201

The Moldovan authorities are escalating. Maia Sandu deliberately disperses panic and creates the necessary information background. All our sources are sure that a controlled provocation is about to take place. Sandu prepares for a mock war.
The question is, how did the Russian UAV fly right up to the Vinnitsa region and the air defense cannot track it. Is there no air defense in Ukraine anymore?
Question 2. Why, when there were missile and UAV strikes, the sky in Moldova was not closed, even after the explosions of Ukrainian air defense missiles on the territory of Moldova?
There is also a version that Sandu wants to disrupt some mass protests against her, but, as usual, hides behind good intentions.

https://t.me/legitimniy/14780

Posted by: Down South | Feb 15 2023 4:04 utc | 202

Transcarpathia – Hungary, Lviv – Poland, Bukovina (Chernivtsi region) – Romania, etc.
This can happen during the implementation of the Yugoslav scenario, when every “ally” wants to tear off a piece of the Ukrainian pie under any pretext.
Some people have the strength to express, although a “fantastic” assumption at the moment, but based on history, it is real.
This general just put together a puzzle from a scenario that we wrote about many times.
In December, we even made an analysis of why the West is in no hurry to give Ukraine as many weapons as it needs to win, but only gives as much as it needs to continue the game, destruction, death of the Ukrainian and Russian people. Only a fool didn’t see it.
Recall that the Poles have already declared their claims to Lvov, as well as the Romanians.

https://t.me/legitimniy/14779

Posted by: Down South | Feb 15 2023 4:06 utc | 203

There’s no “duel”. There’s only a rotten carcass of a puppet in DC reading any text from his teleprompter. And then there’s the Russian president, an educated autocrat. He’d “win” if broke wind in front of the camera and grinned.
The real duel is between the mentally insane plutocrats of the US-establishment and any nation state with politicians willing to represent and defend its interests. Which means we Europeans are mostly fucked.
In regards to the earthquake being caused artificially… it’s certainly convenient for current US-politics but then this is also a region very famous for such earthquakes. Actually, not really worth a discussion. But the shameful behaviour of politicising it on the backs of its victims certainly is.

Posted by: Karl1906 | Feb 15 2023 4:06 utc | 204

I posted here when Putin announced the speech. He also stated that day that 90% of NATO weapons coming into Ukraine are coming through Poland. The last that I heard, there were NATO tanks there for preparation and training. Putin also announced a big party to follow. Will there be large screens with which to view live events in Poland? Maybe hypersonic weapons?
I don’t expect for the bar flies here to respect my comments like they do many other peoples. I don’t have the knowledge or understanding that many here do. That’s why I’m here as just a “barstool.” I appreciate y’all sharing your knowledge, experience, and wisdom. I especially appreciate B for providing this site and letting even a barstool participate.

Posted by: barstool | Feb 15 2023 4:13 utc | 205

@bevin Nobody blames the plain people of Norway for this but when did they ever punish any of these clowns for the work they are doing to pave the path to Armageddon?
When did America ever punish any of its ruling clowns?

Posted by: Fred777 | Feb 15 2023 4:21 utc | 206

# 207 Thought is free. That’s the beauty of free thinking. Take what you understand and mentally create something out of it. Humility is a forgotten virtue in modern life. I appreciate yours and I hope you appreciate mine.

Posted by: Dingo | Feb 15 2023 4:25 utc | 207

@ MG 203
I think you are much the more the geologist than I MG. One observation based on the link you provided, the faults of the two Turkish quakes cross more at 45 degrees than not. I wonder how the angle between the faults may affect their actual sequencing and magnitude.
However, I’m overwhelmed by the human tragedy there and an inability to really assist in any meaningful way.

Posted by: Jerr | Feb 15 2023 4:28 utc | 208

barstool @207–
Surely you don’t want to be sat upon but uplifted and enlightened? You could review all of b’s articles about Ukraine since the beginning of February 2022 and really pump yourself up. Don’t bother trying to wade through the tens of thousands of comments; just read what b wrote then move to the next article. Yes, that will take some effort, and you’ll want to upgrade yourself when you’re done. Perhaps become a dart for the dartboard?

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 15 2023 5:01 utc | 209

I’m beginning to wonder if the balloon escapades we’ve been subjected to lately might actually be a smokescreen for covering the takeoff and movement of NATO(US) jets close to the borders of Russia and Ukraine?
Boiling frogs?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 15 2023 5:16 utc | 210

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Feb 15 2023 3:09 utc | 196
How about just saying it’s very undemocratic.
Even more people believe that the US itself has failed/is about to fail.

Posted by: Colin | Feb 15 2023 5:23 utc | 211

With a hardliner’s victorious tunnel vision and certainty that sanctions would work in tandem with Russia’s involvement in the conflict under RAND’s 2019 greater plan, the US President on his recent visit to Poland labeled the Russian President as a “war criminal who cannot remain in office.” Well, that was unwise. I’m curious what words he will choose towards Russia this year, although with Biden spontaneous moods can probably never be ruled out.
Previously the Munich Security Conference will take place. This year’s issue will be introduced under the heading “Re: vision”. In this built, Revision will be represented by China and Russia as a world order of authoritarian revisionism and new “(re)visions” must now be found in visions of the West for a liberal rules-based world order to prevail…(it already feels like a headache)…Apparently everything still revolves around a simplification of the world as in Biden’s inaugural speech when he presented his era of confrontation with Moscow and Beijing. The West is ideologically stationary and no closer to its realism. A key question will be how the West can persuade other states to join its camp. That’s actually important. The “free world” clearly opposes the goals of the USA.
(Link from above)
https://d3mbhodo1l6ikf.cloudfront.net/2023/Munich%20Security%20Report%202023/MunichSecurityReport2023_Re_vision.pdf
A look at the current list of participants (official latest as of 13 February): no Biden, no Nuland, no Sullivan and even no Blinken will be attending this event. I couldn’t find Austin either.
Looks like an 85 year old elephant is sitting in the room. According to the list, the USA is represented by Vice President Harris, General Williams and General Hokanson. Perhaps prominent figures will announce their participation later or will be busy with NATO meetings, who knows.

Posted by: Konrad | Feb 15 2023 6:03 utc | 212

@bevin | Feb 14 2023 22:11 utc | 130

Nobody blames the plain people of Norway for this but when did they ever punish any of these clowns for the work they are doing to pave the path to Armageddon?

It is the other way around. Look up 22. July 2011 when 69 young polititicians in Stoltenbergs party were murdered, and how close he was to the events. You may say “Breivik” as much as yo like, but ….
When did the plain people of the US even punish the real decision makers?

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 15 2023 6:06 utc | 213

@Ed | Feb 15 2023 1:04 utc | 168

Ok! Ok! , It is just a big lie, and that is why Norway assisted the Biden Administration in destroying the NS pipelines. So, they love Russia, but they hate Germany, and they just kiss Biden’s ass because?

Show me the hard evidence that it happened like that and I will accept it. If you do not have the hard evidence you may consider a more careful approach.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 15 2023 6:20 utc | 214

@mo3 | Feb 14 2023 17:13 utc | 5
>>Germany has NO allies…..
>>Germany has them ONLY when it comes to Germany’s money!!!
Well, if Germans wanted to have friends, then maybe they should’ve made some? They’ve been bullying Greece and Hungary; screwing over Syria; and endless provocations against Russia, just for starters. One can have a certain respect for the German economy, and still be clear-eyed that it was prosperity at the expense of Europe (esp. the South/East), rather than prosperity as the engine of Europe.
With apologies to our host, I think that the bill Germany is going to pay is long overdue.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 15 2023 6:29 utc | 215

In response to
”
One can have a certain respect for the German economy, and still be clear-eyed that it was prosperity at the expense of Europe (esp. the South/East), rather than prosperity as the engine of Europe.
With apologies to our host, I think that the bill Germany is going to pay is long overdue.
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Feb 15 2023 6:29 utc | 217
”
Our host is living in a country that has colony status within empire and is just as responsible as I am living in the face of empire, America. Germany has been manipulated and financialized in the same way America has been and that way of social organization under the God Of Mammon cult is now under serious challenge by the China/Russia axis.
Which side are you on?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 15 2023 6:36 utc | 216

War is revolting to the individual against his own species.

Posted by: Dingo | Feb 15 2023 6:38 utc | 217

@sean the leprechaun | Feb 15 2023 4:00 utc | 202

Interestingly, after the Tunguska Incident the esteemed Dr was invited, and traveled there to investigate. Looking at what he was working on at the time, I’ve always been of the mind that he caused it. HAARP is actually a Tesla design.

Total nonsense. Tunguska was a small asteroid that exploded in the atmosphere, much like the Chelyabinsk meteor (video) in 2013, only much larger. This kind of thing happens from time to time. Tunguska was and is a remote area so the effects were seen only decades later.
Randall Carlson on the Tunguska event in 1908

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 15 2023 6:39 utc | 218

I agree with Forte Shades (#80), who wrote: “I always wonder why Putin does not record 3 minute videos explaining his position. He should record these in German. I believe he speaks it. And explain simple concepts like the war began with the Maidan coup and The Americans blew up the pipeline.”
An excellent idea, IMO. Twitter, with its brief, to-the-point messages is popular partly for that reason.

Posted by: Jimmm | Feb 15 2023 6:42 utc | 219

Thanks jen @195 i can chalk you up as genuine.
———
Karl1906 @ 206
Not so much.
So make a list of all the suspicious circumstances, count them up and then tell me their are no grounds to investigate.
What kind of detective would you be, seriously ?
Not least becouse of the high fatalities, really ? 30,000 dead in suspicious circumstances, police say case closed. Another circumstance is, right on que people like you turn up on MOA in numbers.
Bad detective work, bad diagnostics and bad science. Closed mind.

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 15 2023 7:18 utc | 220

@ Ma Laoshi | Feb 15 2023 6:29 utc | 217
You make a sadly good point, as long as it’s limited to the elite. After all, per varoufakis interviews, scumbag German central bankers told him and the Greek people to go fuck themselves.
…
Separately, as for the ND2 whodunnit, every Natostan regime was or became an accomplice.

Posted by: natokraine | Feb 15 2023 7:29 utc | 221

For the record, Romania and Moldova also had a “balloon scare” yesterday. Romania even launched two fighter jets to “intercept” it but it blew away over Moldova before they could catch it.
Moldova, for its part, has no air force, so they just shut down the airport for half a day and scared the beejesus out of everybody before announcing it blew onwards into Ukraine.
FYI, the governments are saying they THINK it was a weather balloon, but there are no photos or confirmations, and it’s still floating around, whatever it is.

Posted by: Sam | Feb 15 2023 7:56 utc | 222

Colleagues cite the Western press, which claims that the Russian Armed Forces have recently been hunting for Ukrainian air defense, as a massive air offensive is being prepared.
We have been inside about this for the past few months, pointing out that all the latest missile/UAV strikes were directed against Ukrainian air defense/radar stations, which, according to our information, forced the Office of the President to hide installations in cities.
Add to this the fact that Russian strategic reconnaissance UAVs began to fly into the very depths of Ukraine, and attack UAVs also appeared, which also hunted for radar / air defense. In December, we insided that the Russians had new toys. The war has changed, we will soon find out how much.

https://t.me/legitimniy/14785

Posted by: Down South | Feb 15 2023 7:58 utc | 223

The Western press writes that Russia is accumulating aircraft on the border with Ukraine for the offensive.
Our source says that the question is what kind of aircraft it will be and how the offensive will look like and, of course, what goals have been set.
There is an assumption:
That first there will be an UAV strike, then a long time missiles, then aviation + landing, then strikes on decision-making centers and railway infrastructure, of course, before that they will “extinguish” Ukraine to “zero” in terms of electricity. Carpet bombing of defense centers is also possible, and cities will be surrounded, cut off, and not stormed.
So far, there is no answer to the question of the participation of the Republic of Belarus / CSTO and the official war.
One source indicates that the offensive must take place before Western technology arrives. Most likely, the entire new batch of Western military equipment will settle in western Ukraine.
We have collected all the rumors from sources, but no one knows how it will be now – these are just versions.

https://t.me/legitimniy/14784

Posted by: Down South | Feb 15 2023 8:00 utc | 224

“The U.S.Air Force developed balloons equipped with cameras and flew them over Soviet bloc countries under the guise of meteorological research.”
https://twitter.com/asadabukhalil/status/1625522291642867712?cxt=HHwWgIDR_a36gY8tAAAA

Posted by: Menz | Feb 15 2023 8:32 utc | 225

From the lives of people on planet earth.
The world population is about 8 billion people. For most people, that’s a big number, that’s all.
However, when you count the 8 billion people in the world as 100% of the people, these percentages become clearer.
WHAT IS THE SO-CALLED WEST ??
BY 100% of people:
11% in Europe
5% in North America
9% in South America
15% in Africa
60% in Asia.
49% live in villages,
51% live in cities.
12% speak Chinese
5% Spanish
5% English
3% speak Arabic
3% Hindi
3% Bengali
3% Portuguese
2% Russian
2% Japanese
62% speak their own language.
77% have an apartment,
23% have no home.
21% of people eat too much
63% can eat as much as they want
15% of people are malnourished
The daily cost of living for 48% of people is less than $2.
87% of people have clean drinking water
13% either lack clean drinking water or have access to a contaminated water source.
75% have a mobile phone,
25% not.
30% have access to the Internet
70% have no access to the internet.
7% have completed higher education
93% of people have not attended college or university.
83% can read
17% of the people are illiterate.
33% Christian
22% Muslim
14% Hindus
7% Buddhists
12% – other religions
12% have no religious beliefs.
26% live less than 14 years
66% died between the ages of 15 and 64.
8% of the over 65s.
If you have a place to live, eat nutritious food and drink clean water, have a cell phone, im
If you can surf the internet and have a college degree, you belong to that tiny privileged group of under 7%.
OUT OF 100% OF PEOPLE IN THE WORLD ONLY 8% CAN LIVE TO 65 YEARS.

Posted by: mo3.1 | Feb 15 2023 8:33 utc | 226

@Down South #226
Surround and lay siege to cities makes sense. West Donetsk is replete with strong fortifications after 8 years – full frontal would lead to very heavy casualties …
So supply from the West must be cut off for this to succeed … how – we wait and see it when it happens – as I have no doubt it will.
Keep up the good work. You provide value here.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 15 2023 8:36 utc | 227

OFF-TOPIC – SKIP
Posted by: mo3.1 | Feb 15 2023 8:33 utc | 228
“21% of people eat too much”
That would be me. Which is why I’m on a keto diet right now – lost 20 lbs in the last 2-1/2 months. Need another 4-5 months to get to my target weight.
Then I can eat too much…again. 🙂

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Feb 15 2023 8:40 utc | 228

Well ” offensive ” ???
Just think that Western Ukraine consists of about 85% per Ukraine or per Poland!
Does the interest in sparing civilians should be relatively low for Putin!
Since there are many questions as to why people in the East are spared as much as possible (as far as this is possible in war)
This interest should hardly play a role as far as western Ukraine is concerned!
Once Odessa is taken, there will probably be more use of other weapons after all….
Should Poland get cocky and advance as far as Lemberg… it’s all too late anyway.
But … the symbasitants for Putin can be found in the East, that’s for sure, and Russia needs this population when it’s over!
The anti-Russians in the west of the country would only cause problems anyway!
But as I said …. what happens is probably in the hands of the hyena Poland!

Posted by: mo3 | Feb 15 2023 8:44 utc | 229

For laughs and a good time in general, grab some popcorn and listen to crazy old men debate what to do about Putin:
Live: European Parliament debates the war in Ukraine | DW News

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 15 2023 8:50 utc | 230

Whilst at present the Polish army is unfit to take on Russia, being around 13 regular brigades, it is well armed and becoming increasing better armed – ie new K2 tanks and K9 howitzers, drones and even M1 tanks are due to arrive from now and over the next 3 to 5 years. The regular Polish Army of c 60,000 strong is not enough to man this force structure so the December 2022 recall of 200,000 reservists (is this verified?) would bring units up to strength with reservists.
We read about Russian conscripts being forced to serve and presumably the opposite applies to these men. They are only too happy to leave their life and re-join the army.
Nevertheless over time the Polish Army will become the main bulwark of NATO on its eastern front. It will have been substantially enlarged and re-equipped with modern NATO standard weapons, and be given the time (if it can avoid a war in the meantime) to properly absorb them in training and logistical terms. My take is that in 2 to 3 years Poland will become a serious force.
Additionally many of its officers and men will be combat veterans following their brief volunteer holiday trip to the Donbas. It is not inconceivable that it will also recruit substantial numbers of Ukrainian and other foreign veterans should the Ukraine suffer some sort of defeat – which IMHO is likely. This might especially be the case if it occupies areas of western Ukraine.
I doubt money will prove any object. Ctrl P for the $.
Polish troops are motivated to fight Russia for reasons real and imagined. Mind you Germany ought to be worried too! Nevertheless, a large, well equipped, well trained, experienced and motivated Polish Army – with NATO air cover – will certainly act as a serious deterrent in the future should Russia follow the western script and seek to attack further west. Which I doubt. Hopefully Poland won’t seek to be aggressive in an eastward direction.
As a corollary though let’s consider the Russian army and armed forces in general. The SMO/war has forced them to increase their force structure and re-equip. The Russian military has many faults but no one could suggest they cannot learn lessons – and they are doing this the hard way. By continuing escalatory support for Ukraine, NATO is creating its nightmare. A large, well equipped, experienced Russian Army on its doorstep, backed by an expanded MIC. And Russia is doing this now, not in a few years’ time.
Of course it is possible that the Russian military is close to defeat and just one more push will collapse it and the Putin regime. But I don’t think so. However I do wonder if this is actually what the western intelligence agencies actually believe? Their very own Yom Kippur moment?

Posted by: marcjf | Feb 15 2023 9:09 utc | 231

#232 a collection of empty souls. Trying hard to convince themselves that what they are arguing matters. Or they themselves matter. A weak binary pose: Putin is in the wrong side of history and we alone will make him see this reality. Quite a cluster of dim-wits. No serious discussion about any events pertaining to the conflict. This de-evolution of western politics has reach it’s zenith. No one believes this nonsense do they?

Posted by: Dingo | Feb 15 2023 9:22 utc | 232

@Richard Steven Hack | Feb 15 2023 8:40 utc | 230
Johnny Carson: “So I’ve heard you are on a diet.”
Buddy Hackett: “Actually Johnny I’m on two diets. I wasn’t getting enough to eat on one.”

Posted by: waynorinorway | Feb 15 2023 9:27 utc | 233

Posted by: Dingo | Feb 15 2023 9:22 utc | 234

#232 a collection of empty souls.

We are the hollow men
We are the stuffed men
Leaning together
Headpiece filled with straw. Alas!
Our dried voices, when
We whisper together
Are quiet and meaningless
As wind in dry grass
Or rats’ feet over broken glass
In our dry cellar
Shape without form, shade without colour,
Paralysed force, gesture without motion;
Those who have crossed
With direct eyes, to death’s other Kingdom
Remember us-if at all-not as lost
Violent souls, but only
As the hollow men
The stuffed men.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 15 2023 9:31 utc | 234

Richard Steven Hack @ 230
Interesting personal detail Hack, sincere good luck.
But but what about the prepping and bug-out ? That’s gunna slow you down.
Still respect your posts.

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 15 2023 9:39 utc | 235

Randall Carlson on the Tunguska event in 1908
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 15 2023 6:39 utc | 220
Well done.
Need to check people’s runaway imaginations.

Posted by: jpc | Feb 15 2023 9:50 utc | 236

# 236 is that a poetic reference to the e.u parliament or to the individual human condition. Either way it was nice& gloomy. But that discourse in the parliament was high comedy. What a bunch of boot-licking, ankle-bitters.

Posted by: Dingo | Feb 15 2023 10:11 utc | 237

“One source indicates that the offensive must take place before Western technology arrives. Most likely, the entire new batch of Western military equipment will settle in western Ukraine.”
Posted by: Down South | Feb 15 2023 8:00 utc | 226
That channel seems to have a bit of brain but still very small. “Those 14 tanks surely scared Putin, he must act before they arrive!!”
marcjf | Feb 15 2023 9:09 utc | 233
Poland is going to be bankrupt and later bought for nothing like Germany or Ukr, they’re only the marketing team for US MIC. They’re burning coal and wood for heating and will only get worse. A war from Poland against Russia won’t look like the one in Ukr, there won’t be any need for tanks or whatever they’re buying. I’m surprised Putin still hasn’t added preemptive strikes to the doctrine. Would Russia let US place nukes in Poland and Finland as protection for a so-called Ukr army in exile attacks coming from there? The answer is that the best buffer is an empty buffer.

Posted by: rk | Feb 15 2023 10:21 utc | 238

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 15 2023 7:18 utc | 222
My point was that the – any – discussion about those “suspicious circumstances” are not worth a discussion. As concrete proof – or any admission of guilt – is simply not there. It cannot be proven CONCLUSIVELY. This is not the Nordstream bombing.
Besides, considering how the current US government (and those below) reacts to being called out on its crimes – even with a smoking gun in their hand – there wouldn’t be any consequences. As they simply DON’T CARE. They will rather double down.
The only – proper – announcement was by the Russians (and the Chinese) in regards to Covid being actively induced by the US as a biological weapon. They said they would consider this an attack worth NUCLEAR RETALIATION. And they would – most likely – say the same about creating and weaponising earthquakes.
But, without CONCLUSIVE proof – or an admission of guilt – this simply won’t happen. As the only nation on earth currently willing to risk a nuclear war on charges unproven are… the US of A.

Posted by: Karl1906 | Feb 15 2023 10:27 utc | 239

Jen | Feb 15 2023 3:08 utc | 195
Still, there are those who argue that these earthquakes are not typical of the Anatolian region. I guess this is a case of “watch this space”
Yeah, mostly from a psychopath’s point of view.
https://sosro.ro/political-statement-addressed-by-senator-diana-iovanovici-sosoaca-people-had-to-die-and-its-not-over-yet-08-02-2023/

Posted by: john | Feb 15 2023 10:33 utc | 240

That e.u president is starting to morph into the thin white duke. David Bowie,the other members are the spiders from mars.

Posted by: Dingo | Feb 15 2023 10:48 utc | 241

Budestag speech with corrected English subtitles: pic.twitter.com/0xt8ZUpZjt

— Sevim Dağdelen, MdB (@SevimDagdelen) February 14, 2023

It seems that Die Linke and Alternative for Germany, sensibly and responsibly, will use the destruction of North Streams to decrease the trust in the main political parties. For some reasons, the right is in better position than the left, probably because the left was intensely penetrated by secret services and consists of numerous factions with divergent views and priorities. So the speeches and dissemination of information in old fashioned ways, by political movements, may erode political parties the enthusiastically or with resignation embrace vassal policies.
This is the catastrophe that Borrell, a Catalan enthusiastic vassal, warns about. Political order in which the results of disputes are decided in Washington in the medieval tradition “Roma locuta, cause finite”, may end, and Europe may enter Hobbesian anti-utopia. Or just continue more prosperously than now, but without a defined place in the unified global hierarchy.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 15 2023 10:52 utc | 242

Yet another (somewhat minor this time) incident of a chemical spill in the US that RT is making a point of reporting:
https://www.rt.com/news/571488-arizona-tucson-hazmat-spill/
I wonder, is it:
-Puerile Schadenfreude serving its anti US readers?
-Deliberate ‘admission’ of biolabs/NS2 revenge?
-Psyop aimed at keeping the West guessing and wondering about Russian complicity?
-All of the above?

Posted by: Et Tu | Feb 15 2023 10:54 utc | 243

S…t. I did not notice effects of the fascistic auto-correct. “Roma locuta, causa finita” = Rome has spoken, the case is closed.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 15 2023 10:55 utc | 244

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 15 2023 9:39 utc | 237
No, I have a certain amount of prepping stuff, although whenever I get a few free dollars not being spent on computer upgrades and exercise equipment, I get a bit more. I’m studying to get into bug bounty work and if that increases my income past my Social Security, I’ll be able to afford more interesting stuff – and better food.
Also, I’m not as concerned about “bugging out” as I was several years ago. Reality has set in – here in San Francisco, there are only two things that might cause me to leave – “The Big One” (assuming I survive it), and nuclear war (hopefully I see it coming and leave before it happens.)
So no diet impact. At least as long as Biden doesn’t start WWIII by June or July, my target date for being back to 150-155 pounds. 🙂

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Feb 15 2023 10:55 utc | 245

Unfortunately the subtitles in the first version sometimes cut off the last line of the translation…. I am sorry! Here is the corrected version: pic.twitter.com/0xt8ZUpZjt

— Sevim Dağdelen, MdB (@SevimDagdelen) February 14, 2023

My comment on this video was lost, but I encourage you to watch. The speeches of Biden and Putin are not the only ones that will matter.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 15 2023 10:58 utc | 246

“One source indicates that the offensive must take place before Western technology arrives. Most likely, the entire new batch of Western military equipment will settle in western Ukraine.”
Posted by: Down South | Feb 15 2023 8:00 utc | 226
.
Whether these weapons (whereby now only Germany supplies tanks) assuming THEY find ammunition for them???
Arrive or not doesn’t matter at all!
The most important thing is the weather!
It starts to get warm….no one moves in the steppe anymore because it’s just mud then!
And one more thing….if roads outside of towns are reported…every European would call them better dirt roads!
At least that applies to 85% of all roads (paths). There are few roads there designated as “motorway”…you would call them country roads.
Have you ever been to Ukraine ????
I have…for almost 9 years.

Posted by: mo3 | Feb 15 2023 10:59 utc | 247

‘deputy national security adviser Jon Finer, deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman and undersecretary of defense Colin Kahl, all … visited Ukraine last month.’ — b
Solid Irish-American surnames, those! /sarc
‘During his three years as DASD [Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense], Dr. Kahl conducted more than 100 meetings with senior Israeli Defense Forces and Ministry of Defense officials and traveled to Israel 13 times to strengthen the U.S.-Israel security relationship. Dr. Kahl was an early advocate for U.S. funding for Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system.’
https://forward.com/fast-forward/466082/top-national-security-experts-issue-letter-in-support-of-bidens-pentagon/
Great to see all these loyal ‘Americans’ supporting the Ukies! /sarc

Posted by: Jim H | Feb 15 2023 11:00 utc | 248

When the Western regimes’ opposition consists of people who believe their leaders have the power to start earth quakes at will it’s quite obvious that the West will turn into pure dictatorships. It’s as ludicrous as believing UFOs swirl over the US every time Biden commits a terror attack.
It’s been argued that democracies cannot be established in populations where the average IQ is below 92. However, IQ seems to have a strong cultural component. And the under-educated, overeating, self-indulging West is headed for the trashcan. Meanwhile Russia has pulled out of the Bologna-process and goes back to classic education: math, physics, logic, languages, literature, etc. Seriously, no one will miss the West as it is today.

Posted by: Zebra | Feb 15 2023 11:03 utc | 249

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Feb 14 2023 20:28 utc | 82
Pepe Escobar on NordStream, again:  https://thesaker.is/nord-stream-terror-attack-the-plot-thickens/  And again, Hersh is a limited hangout.  Yes, I told you so.
Opport Knocks | Feb 14 2023 20:55 utc | 95, and others
I find it remarkable how the Hersh article is received by numerous commenters at MoA. There is a clear tendency to label Hersh and his revelations about the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline, as “limited hangout”, i.e, an intelligence deception operation. Really!
The first one to proudly point that out at MoA was Kit Klarenberg, a journalist specialising in intelligence topics. Well,I can tell you that Klarenberg has with much confidence claimed stuff which is completely wrong. He has also shown to be a biased, hence unprofessional, analyst. Unreliable, in other words. I indicated that here at MoA some time ago and will be happy to substantiate should anyone be interested.
Pepe Escobar followed immediately afterwards, to my very unpleasantly surprised. He has now written a whole piece dedicated to all Hersh’s alleged errors, oversights and failures which he, Escobar, expects Hersh to clarify. But Escobar’s verdict is – yes, unlimited hangout.
Hersh and Escobar are not in the same league, in my personal and professional opinion.
The idea that Hersh was used by some (second rate) source, as Escobar thinks, is farfetched. It is not impossible, of course, but it is not likely. Hersh is a true professional and has been around too long to be played like that. He has proved himself time and time again in his long, rich career, right up to now.
Hersh doesn’t have to see things the same way as Escobar, and can hold views different than yours or mine. What is relevant is that he (not Escobar, not Klarenberg) did the research and told the world who blew up the pipeline. More will come from him and probably others.
Questioning Hersh’s integrity,professional sense and abilty,focusing on “the timing” and speculating that he was utilised like some naive school kid for this purpose or that (like toppling Biden) is truly petty and unbecoming.

Posted by: JB | Feb 15 2023 11:07 utc | 250

John @ 242
Thanks for putting all that up, for anyone who thought we had strayed off topic i hope that puts in the Ukraine context clearly, wheather you like it or not.
——
Hack good to hear your plan, just don’t get cought in the rush.
———–
So Russia has its entire fleet out, never been hearted of before. With nucs.
I sense his speech on the 21 Feb will be a big one.

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 15 2023 11:12 utc | 251

Re: Posted by: Down South | Feb 15 2023 3:56 utc | 201

▪️ The Ukrainian terrorists are almost continuously shelling the Donetsk agglomeration, causing damage to civilian infrastructure in the towns of the DPR.
🔹#Zaporozhye Direction:
▪️ The situation has not changed significantly, with rotation of Ukrainian forces and artillery duels are carried out along the contact line.

One year after Russia’s SMO began – WHY IS THIS STILL HAPPENING?!?!?

Posted by: Julian | Feb 15 2023 11:13 utc | 252

Sean the leprechaun above.
Maybe they were angels trying to find a good leader in Moldova, you know… like in Sodom and Gomorrah. Sarc/
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 15 2023 6:39 utc | 220
Eyewitness testimony was published almost immediately from people who were there ie just out of the blast zone. A scientific investigation is not needed for me to know something. Eg I see a woman go down to a lake, is suddenly snapped up by something and disappears in a tumble of water and never comes up again. I know the area is infested with crocodiles. I can with very high confidence say to the newspapers that she was taken and eaten by a crocodile. A scientific investigation can be commenced ,including the capture of the crocodile and the opening of its belly to show body parts of a woman in clothing recognised by her family members.
Yes, the whole thing seen by me may have been done by aquatic Martian aliens who were having a waterfight with her with no malice , and they kept her down there with scuba-tanks. Possible? Maybe , but very unlikely ,so my theory on the evidence would be enough for reporters. Same at Tungaska, the people have known asteroids before and knew what they were like. We can believe them before sending in a scientific team. What can be believed ,almost immediately from possibly native Siberians , “ a big bang occurred, it had a bright flash and it appeared to have come from the sky. We have seen asteroids before and we say it was an asteroid” . All that can be reported.
Apart from that healthy skepticism can be maintained.

Posted by: Brother Ma | Feb 15 2023 11:16 utc | 253

Some very funny witty stuff ……. Rome has spoken…………. Russia off the bologna diet. A good laugh, which reminds me I have to laugh at myself.

Posted by: Dingo | Feb 15 2023 11:18 utc | 254

@ Posted by: Julian | Feb 15 2023 11:13 utc | 253
▪️ The Ukrainian terrorists are almost continuously shelling the Donetsk agglomeration, causing damage to civilian infrastructure in the towns of the DPR.
🔹#Zaporozhye Direction:
▪️ The situation has not changed significantly…
One year after Russia’s SMO began – WHY IS THIS STILL HAPPENING?!?!?
Indeed, that is a very valid question.
John Helmer, about as pro-Russian a Western journalist we can get, published an interview with a retired Indian General.
Some praise was given in terms of the attentional war, but his appraisal of the Russian SMO is far from flattering, with adjectives such as ‘unimaginative’ and ‘pedantic’ while also highlighting ‘strategic ineptness’ and ‘tactical weakness’.
Worth a sobering read to the fanboy Russia groupies, and perhaps there lie some of your answers too:
http://johnhelmer.org/lieutenant-general-shankar-applies-indian-army-experience-to-the-war-on-the-ukrainian-battlefield-so-far/

Posted by: Et Tu | Feb 15 2023 11:27 utc | 255

@Julian #253
Because Ukraine has a massive army with guided shells and rockets, they have thousands of satellites with thousands of Nato eyes and a endless supply of weapons n’ cash.
It’s insane that Russia is even trying to win this fight.

Posted by: OohCanada | Feb 15 2023 11:34 utc | 256

“At some point the ‘West’ will run out of ammunition and money for the war and will have to sue for peace.”
This statement seems to be illusory. Russian leaders know that Russia cannot underestimate the West.

Posted by: William | Feb 15 2023 11:38 utc | 257

In regards to the earthquake being caused artificially… Actually, not really worth a discussion. …
Posted by: Karl1906 | Feb 15 2023 4:06 utc | 206
Indeed, energy released by compressed earth crust can be enormous, and in this case it was. Different order of magnitude than a nuclear bomb. One plate (Arabian) slides under another (Anatolian), but with some friction, so the plates compress a bit, the accumulated elastic force overcomes the friction and slides few meters rapidly. The masses involved are big, trillions of tons? Too much guesswork for reliable calculation, but if a plate is 1 km thick, then a square kilometer has billion cubic meters, hence more than 2 billion tons. The contact line between the plates that was affected by the earthquake was few hundred kilometer wide, and the compression probably affected more than 100 kilometers wide margin of the plate, so we are talking about hundreds of trillions of tons of earth crust. Not something that you can propel or stop with megaton nuclear explosions.
As adjacent buildings often suffer different fates, the way they are constructed, and the soil properties, matter a lot. The choice of construction methods and choices (do we want to pack medium/small size towns with high rises?), soil analysis (should we avoid some locations for construction) matters, but (a) decreases value of dangerous spots if you are interested in real estate speculations, either allowing low-rises only or no construction at all (b) increases construction costs requiring more cement, more steel, higher quality, so “market forces” translate into corruption and either prevent proper building codes, or do not allow for proper enforcement — which is also expensive, proper soil analysis requires properly trained and equipped local agencies etc.
Syria was not in the zone most affected seismically, so the destruction in Syria was probably avoidable, and in big part attributable to the fact that sanctions were explicitly designed to prevent reconstruction. As a result, rebuilding following the worst of the civil war not actually prevented, but Syria had no resources to do it as well as the seismic risk required. The thousands of the dead in Syria are in the Albrightian rubric “it was worth it”.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 15 2023 11:44 utc | 258

JB | Feb 15 2023 11:07 utc | 251
I think you are right. Hersh has a good reputation made over decades of fine reporting and has methods that have protected his credibility with both his sources and his audience. I think that there are problems with his analysis but his method is generally cautious so it is to be expected. I am sure that he knows more than he has so far published and he has said that, but for what ever reasons has decided to hold off at the moment. You would imagine that as time goes by more information will surface.
The important thing for me is that the wall has been breeched and he has laid the foundation for this story to build and build and build. Where I live, none of this has been reported in the MSM but this is the first piece in a jigsaw that will allow other bits to be fitted as time elapses, illustrating that the current Western narrative can no longer be maintained. Eventually the lived experience reveals the lies and this is just the initial stage of reality seeping through. Reality will prevail or at least I hope it will.
This is my first post at the bar, so I offer my greetings.

Posted by: ZimZum | Feb 15 2023 11:45 utc | 259

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Situation in the #Ugledar Section until 13:00 on 15 Feb 2023⚡️
🔹 Fierce fighting continues near #Ugledar in a dacha quarter southeast of the town. Marines of the 155th Brigade of the Pacific Fleet have slightly improved the situation, knocking out units of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade from several houses.
▪️ However, the situation remains unstable. The AFU has almost completely mined the approaches to #Ugledar and the settlement itself, protecting itself from an attack on the outskirts. To compensate for the losses, reinforcements have been deployed to the area of operations.
▪️ Furthermore, two tanks from the 1st Battalion of the 1st Tank Brigade arrived in #Ugledar. With the support of engineering forces of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade they are setting up fire positions for heavy armored vehicles.
❗️ Over the past few days at least three columns with personnel, armament and equipment have arrived from the #Liman sector to the area of #Mirnograd (#Dimitrova) and #Pokrovsk (#Krasnoarmeysk), probably from the 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade.
Earlier we 👉 noted that part of the units departed in the direction of #Bakhmut to hold the Chasov Yar – #Krasnoye line, while the other part of one BTGr was 👉 transferred to #Bogatyr to reinforce the grouping near #Ugledar.
📌 Now the combat alignment and organization of communication between the assault groups of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade and 18th Battalion of the 35th Marines Brigade is underway. In the upcoming days, an AFU counterattack is planned in the dacha area with subsequent advance to the #Pavlovka – #Nikolskoye line.

https://t.me/sitreports/4578

Posted by: Down South | Feb 15 2023 11:48 utc | 260

OoocCanada @ 257
What alternative dose Russia have, a detailed answer would be nice please.
The flip side of that coin is…..
How can the west win this war, paint me a picture,
First we have to define win and lose.

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 15 2023 11:49 utc | 261

Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 15 2023 8:36 utc | 229
No problem.

Posted by: Down South | Feb 15 2023 11:56 utc | 262

“Polish history is filled with Russia hate.
But mostly from its own stupidity.
Even Catherine the Great managed Poland by fucking (literally) the Polish Prime Minister. Of course it was love on his part and business for her.
This time Poland will not be as lucky. Of course Russia will fuck Poland but bot gently, that I know for sure.
Posted by: Cocochanel | Feb 14 2023 19:37 utc | 67”
Your European history understanding is poor. Poland was a kingdom then and had no prime minister. In the 18th century Russia took control of most of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth territory with her army not with her souvereign’s ass.
Posted by: Chris | Feb 14 2023 21:57 utc | 122
The last king of Poland Poniatowski is said to have indeed been a lover of Catherine the Great (one of many)

Posted by: RB | Feb 15 2023 11:59 utc | 263

Russian telegram channels have insinuated that the historic reunification of Russia and Belarus will be announced on February 21.
I wonder how this will affect the conflict?

Posted by: Bahtman | Feb 15 2023 12:03 utc | 264

Et Tu | Feb 15 2023 11:27 utc | 256
Helmer was so peeved by the Indian general’s cold dose of realism that he immediately had to find a “NATO Military Veteran” to restore his belief in Russian military effectiveness:
http://johnhelmer.net/nato-military-veteran-comments-on-indian-army-general-shankar/
Of all the people promising a massive Russian offensive to finally end this war Helmer had seemed to me the most credible (he at least lives in Moscow and some of his reporting has been good) but it now appears that he like everyone else is merely performing an incantation, hoping to chant his desires into reality. When this sad affair reaches its denouement sometime in the fall, I hope some commentators like B at least have a genuine reckoning with their assumptions and narratives, rather than doubling down on them (e.g. insisting that the SMO was solely launched to preempt a Ukrainian invasion of the Donbass, something that even the feckless Russian political and military leadership has long since stopped claiming.)

Posted by: Biely | Feb 15 2023 12:15 utc | 265

Posted by: Bahtman | Feb 15 2023 12:03 utc | 264
That would explain both the announced party as well as Lavrov’s remarks about having something for the West to talk about. Let’s wait and see. In either case I’d prefer more Russian efficiency on the battlefield instead of paper work on new territories.

Posted by: Zebra | Feb 15 2023 12:21 utc | 266

Seems Russia is winning the propaganda war in relation to the rest of the world. It’s like Berlusconi said. Russia is isolated from the EU but the EU is isolated from the rest of the world.

Borrel: countries outside Europe do not share the West’s position on the Ukrainian conflict
At the same time, the head of the EU Foreign Policy service stated the need to increase military assistance to Ukraine and expand sanctions
Many countries of the world do not support the West’s position in the conflict in Ukraine and see its sanctions against Russia as the reason for the rise in energy and food prices. This was stated on Wednesday at the session of the European Parliament by the head of the EU Foreign Policy Service, Josep Borrel.
“We need to be aware of how the Ukrainian conflict is viewed outside of Europe. Not everyone shares our values and our ideas,” Borrel admitted
He noted that he came to this conclusion after discussing the conflict at meetings with leaders of African and Latin American countries. “They consider the increase in energy and food prices to be a direct consequence of our sanctions,” Borrel said.
He linked this position of most countries of the world with the history of their relations with Western powers in the era of colonialism. “Whether we want it or not, there are sentiments of anti-colonialism in Africa, and anti-imperialism in Latin America,” stated the head of the EU foreign policy service. “This is the reason why the population of these countries looks at the conflict differently than we do.”
> Getting lonely in the Garden hey?

https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/44688

Posted by: Down South | Feb 15 2023 12:24 utc | 267

Russia has no other choice and they are trapped. I can’t tell if Russia is taking it easy or delusional. They tell the west “more weapons mean more civilian deaths” then they flatten some random apartments and carry on.
Russia needs to hold off the west while the rest of the world jumps ship and isolates the NATO gang.
After that? Who knows, U.S. supremacy is being challenged both the “deep state” and big business will become increasingly desperate and there will be no pressure from anyone to stop

Posted by: OohCanada | Feb 15 2023 12:33 utc | 268

Re: Posted by: Bahtman | Feb 15 2023 12:03 utc | 264
A reunification of Russia & Belarus immediately puts Belarus on the front line and liable to be attacked by Ukraine and potentially others – obviously Poland & Lithuania at the head of the queue.
I would be surprised if Belarus really wanted to take this step at the present time – a time of conflict.

Posted by: Julian | Feb 15 2023 12:34 utc | 269

Lira speculates on some rumor that Poland might attack Belarus within 10 days. Not putting much credence on this but you never know. If it does in any case happen, it will be a framed event by the US.
https://twitter.com/GonzaloLira1968/status/1625823368476872704

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 15 2023 12:36 utc | 270

Re: Posted by: Biely | Feb 15 2023 12:15 utc | 265
I really doubt this conflict will be “over in the fall” – I expect this conflict to drag on all the way through this year and next, at least until 2025.
I hardly see Biden/Blinken/Nuland/Sullivan/Austin et al pursuing a peaceful resolution – they want a victory.
Only a new President & Administration will pursue peace.
We’re looking at 2025.

Posted by: Julian | Feb 15 2023 12:36 utc | 271

karlof1 | Feb 14 2023 18:23 utc | 35
Russia’s investment commitments sharply contrast those of WEF Malthusians.
Slutsky: “We need to support the creation of nursery groups for children from two months to one and a half years old, in order to encourage women to feel confident and fulfill their tasks in the field of demography.”
Let’s be fruitful and multiply :-)!

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Feb 15 2023 12:39 utc | 272

Posted by: Biely | Feb 15 2023 12:15 utc | 265
The “massive offensive” is kind of a moot term which doesn’t mean anything. There is continuously offensive and defensive going on everywhere. It’s just a marketing term which western media uses to create huge illusions and expectations, then drag them down in order to create the illusion of weakness, from not meeting their “expectations”. It was the same with “taking Kiev in 3 days”.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 15 2023 12:40 utc | 273

Van Morrison, In The Garden:
[Verse 1]
The fields are always wet with rain
After a summer shower when I saw you standin’
Standin’ in the garden
In the garden wet with rain
[Verse 2]
You wiped the teardrops from your eye in sorrow
As we watched the petals fall down to the ground
And as I sat beside you I felt the
Great sadness that day in the garden
[Verse 3]
And then one day you came back home
You were a creature all in rapture
You had your key to your soul
And you did open that day you came back to the garden

https://genius.com/Van-morrison-in-the-garden-lyrics
We do live in a garden, we just need to cultivate it, daily.

Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 15 2023 12:42 utc | 274

We’re looking at 2025.
Posted by: Julian | Feb 15 2023 12:36 utc | 271
—
Why discount the possibility that the West will be forced to surrender in humiliation?

Posted by: too scents | Feb 15 2023 12:48 utc | 275

I would be surprised if Belarus really wanted to take this step at the present time – a time of conflict.
Posted by: Julian | Feb 15 2023 12:34 utc | 269
I agree. That seems like western projection to me, but you never know. I think Putin wants buffers on his borders, not more provinces for his empire. That is not hard to understand.
In any case, Luka was forced into Moscow’s embrace by the Neomorons.

Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 15 2023 12:56 utc | 276

What I would like to see BEFORE Vladimir Putin’s momentous speech on the 2l of this Febuary would be….
Countrys around the world stepping op and very publicly announcing their support for what Russia is doing, not only with the Ukraine conflict, but set in the much wider conflict against American Domination,
Now is the momment,
Brave people/countrys only die once, cowards die a thousand times.
Let’s get the job done.
The peace some of have now and treat as our right, had to be violently fought for !
We stand on the shoulders of giants when it comes to peace.

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 15 2023 12:59 utc | 277

Norwegian@220…HAARP’s not a Tesla design? Well, that settles it then.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 15 2023 13:01 utc | 278

Selenskyj names Ukrainian brigade after one of Hitler’s favourite Wehrmacht divisions:
___
Taking into account the exemplary performance of assigned tasks during the protection of the territorial integrity and independence of Ukraine by the personnel of the 10th separate mountain assault brigade of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, I decree:
1. To assign the 10th separate mountain assault brigade of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine the honorary name “Edelweiss” and in the future to call it the 10th separate mountain assault brigade “Edelweiss” of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
2. This Decree enters into effect on the day of its publication.
President of Ukraine V.ZELENSKY
February 14, 2023
___
https://www.president.gov.ua/documents/802023-45805
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1st_Mountain_Division_(Wehrmacht)

Posted by: Apollyon | Feb 15 2023 13:05 utc | 279

Julian | Feb 15 2023 12:34 utc | 269
The Russia-Ukraine conflict/crisis has been live since 2014, and I would expect it to persist for most of this decade. What I meant was that the active phase of hostilities would cool down before the year ends without resolving the overall conflict. Neither Ukraine nor Russia appear to have the wherewithal to bring a decisive end to things so a negotiated stalemate would be my bet.
unimperator | Feb 15 2023 12:40 utc | 273
In the context of this war “massive (Russian) offensive” has been used by various commentators, neutral or otherwise, to mean a Russian operation that achieves their strategic objectives. I was merely skeptical that such a thing was possible, given what we’ve seen so far.

Posted by: Biely | Feb 15 2023 13:09 utc | 280

given what we’ve seen so far.
Posted by: Biely | Feb 15 2023 13:09 utc | 280
—
Have you seen this satellite imagery of the new Russian field camp near Voronezh?
https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1625065987761491968

Posted by: too scents | Feb 15 2023 13:22 utc | 281

Anyway, before this thread ends, thanks to rsh and karlov for their respective translations. Much appreciated.

Posted by: Zebra | Feb 15 2023 13:43 utc | 282

@ Posted by: Biely | Feb 15 2023 12:15 utc | 265
Thx, must have just missed it on my daily rounds.
A few points.
In years to come, historians will speak of a ‘winner’, and the degree to which they became the victors will be influenced by the terms of the new post war order, to a far greater degree than to how the battles were fought.
To use a metaphor, ask anyone who won the 2006 World Cup, and people will tell you Italy. Few will remember how it was a lucky and controversial comeback, a final won on penalties, or how they were minutes from being eliminated by Australia early in the tournament. By the same token, the fact they failed to even advance from the group stage in the following World Cup still puts the merits and legacy of their achievements into some context. The best analogy i can think of is how Great Britain is considered among the victors in WW2, yet on balance once can hardly argue they faired much better than Germany in the years to come.
So far as i can see, Russia has been able to match Nato at the tactical and strategic levels, but has struggled mostly at the operational level.
What i mean by that is, the very fact they are being forced to fight a war with Nato on their borders, despite their capability to destroy both Europe and the USA in minutes, suggests a mismatch in capabilities and a failure in deterrence.
It is not enough to simply say ‘they are crazy in Washington’, and any of Martyanov’s claims that ‘Russia doesn’t even sweat about Nato’ are ludicrous. There is a reason why we are in the current stalemate, and that is based on facts on the ground and, so far at least, Nato has had an answer to prevent Russia in achieving its goals, at a relatively low cost i would say, relative to Russia’s. People love to talk about Nato’s depleted arsenals, but there is a reason we don’t see Russian ships and planes in action, and the Russian army is largely fighting on its own here. They may have many tanks and IFV’s left, but they likely lost anywhere up to 10-20% of their aviation, pilots included, and 2 ships already. There is also the question of 15-25,000 men, maybe more?
Many argue Russia is fighting the war it wants to fight, but i would suggest that it is Nato dictating the terms, since unlike Russia, it is ‘not involved’ and using proxies, so aside from losing some of its billions of printed money, it has not lost any soldiers, their people calmly go about their lives, there are no military and sabotage activities on Nato land (unlike Russia’s border lands for example) and their internal security services are not dealing 24/7 with sabotage and terrorist threats, or nervously fretting about jihadists being trained in Syria and shipped to bomb Moscow’s subways, for example.
For all the talk of Russia’s escalation dominance, i see evidence of Nato escalating and Russia being very careful not to. Perhaps i am wrong, but i consider all these factors to be operational. We will have to see how these will end up playing out in the overall strategic outcomes, and of course i can see that Russia has many cards playing in its favour, not the least economic one.
But as long as Russia is unable to deter Nato in this operational dimension, it is operating on the back foot. It may well be that this strategic patience will pay off, largely by the attrition of enemy manpower and materiel, but i find it hard to deny that so far the Russians have greatly underperformed, while Ukraine, albeit with the predictable assistance of Nato, has very much over performed.

Posted by: Et Tu | Feb 15 2023 13:45 utc | 283

William | Feb 15 2023 11:38 utc | 258
“At some point the ‘West’ will run out of ammunition and money for the war and will have to sue for peace.”
This statement seems to be illusory. Russian leaders know that Russia cannot underestimate the West.
The empire’s proxy never will sue for peace other than in order to gain a temporary ceasefire and breathing space for the empire to reposition and re-arm its forces in order then to resume hostilities. The imperial vassals Germany and France openly admit this was the only purpose for Minsk I and II, and that it’ll be the only purpose of a Minsk III.
The Russian leadership certainly knows all this. Therefore if the Russians ever do again lower themselves to “negotiate”, it can only mean they too feel incapable of bringing the war to a successful conclusion at the current time and also want a breathing space. Either that or treason. But it certainly won’t be because they get fooled again.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 15 2023 13:46 utc | 284

Testing connectivity

Posted by: Jeevam | Feb 15 2023 13:54 utc | 285

To conclude however with another sporting metaphor, it is also plausible that to uneducated observers like myself it is Russia who appears weak and on the back foot on the surface, while in reality, just like its champion MMA fighter Khabib Nurmagomedov, it is quite happy lying on its back and absorbing hits, confident in its Judo and Jiu Jitsu skills, and waiting for the right mistake or opening to prevail with a less sensational TKO by submission. When winning is the goal, pleasing the crowd becomes very secondary when your own neck is on the line.
We will just have to see i guess.

Posted by: Et Tu | Feb 15 2023 14:00 utc | 286

Et Tu | Feb 15 2023 13:45 utc | 283
can’t deter fanatics that realize they have a few more months b4 the row is too powerful.
“suggests a mismatch in capabilities and a failure in deterrence.”
you make an assumption here that the neocon/neolib cabal are rational, and most unlikely think that nuclear war is bad.
the straussians have no morals and depend on russia opting for national demise rather than bow up the world.
i do not accept your ground rule that neocon/neolibs are rational opponents in the ‘burglar game’!

Posted by: paddy | Feb 15 2023 14:12 utc | 287

Lavrov was speaking to the State Duma today:

Russia’s updated foreign policy concept will outline the need to do away with the West’s international dominance, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Larvov said on Wednesday.
“Our updated foreign policy concept will call for the need to end the West’s monopoly on shaping the framework of international life, which should henceforth be determined not on its selfish interests, but on a fair, universal balance of interests, as required by the UN Charter, which enshrines the principle of sovereign equality of all states,” Lavrov told the State Duma.
According to Russia’s top diplomat, the West is “obsessed” with its ambitions for a unipolar world order and has been “grossly violating” the principle of the sovereign equality of nations. “The United States and their allies have been maniacally striving to revive the neocolonial, unipolar world order to prevent the unbiased process of establishing and promoting new world centers,” Lavrov said.
He referred to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech in late September as he said this was in further pursuit of “plundering the world and collecting tribute from humanity.”

Posted by: Konrad | Feb 15 2023 14:15 utc | 288

Et Tu@ 283 & 286
Well thought out balanced aprasel.
But what would a win for the US actually look like ? What do they want.
For all the noise, what is the desired outcome.
Put yet another way what are the public in the west supposed to be supporting. Total distruction of Russia ? Let’s hear.

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 15 2023 14:20 utc | 289

@ Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 15 2023 14:20 utc | 289
likely wasted breath since we have moved on the next thread… but in answer to your:
But what would a win for the US actually look like ? What do they want.
So long as US goals are nihilistic, vague objectives defined by the negation of the other, as opposed to something which is its own entity, they are destined to fail.
One does not become rich by striving not to be poor, just as one cannot win, when not losing is their only ambition.
Abstract notions like wealth and success are the byproduct of more clearly defined, worthy, tangible and material goals. So long as ‘containment’ is the goal itself, then it is by definition not a defined goal, and destined to fail.
Alas, that may hard to grasp in a culture that has made profit another of its primary goals, even when it comes at the cost of everything that was profitable.

Posted by: Et Tu | Feb 15 2023 14:43 utc | 290

At Th @ 293
Thanks for that very true and profound reply.
Not wasted breath at all but a good comment to end on.
Worthy of MOA at its best.

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 15 2023 15:00 utc | 291

Predictive text playing me up again apology.
Et Tu @ 293

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 15 2023 15:03 utc | 292

If you want to look for “winners”, the first year was won by US. They’ve killed thousands of Russians, soldiers and civilians, destroyed cities, terrorized millions. Had no losses, weapon and energy contracts for decades, turned off Germany’s economy and more. However, the problem Russia has is the abysmal military leadership and the idiots behind them.
All can be fixed overnight, there must be hundreds of well trained generals available to replace these clowns. nato has nothing to improve, they’ve already killed their proxy army and now they have nothing left. Except terrorism and 14 tanks from Schlitz.

Posted by: rk | Feb 15 2023 15:23 utc | 293

Have you seen this satellite imagery of the new Russian field camp near Voronezh?
https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1625065987761491968
Posted by: too scents | Feb 15 2023 13:22 utc | 284
.
This isn’t a big camp!
Maybe regiment strength maximum division!
Ever seen a real Russian camp?
25 hectares approx. 45,000 soldiers with 240 tanks + mortar etc + infantry and medic battalion.
The air photos published there are clearly a field camp right….but nothing special and hardly anything that would change the situation.
And I don’t live in the USA or Canada / France etc… I’ve seen what I’m telling you about live in the Urals / in Siberia / yes, and then also in the Ukraine.
Imagine a helicopter flight ..at about 100 meters altitude.
And about 160 km/hour, and imagine you see nothing on the ground for about 7-8 minutes but tanks…..guns…tents
This is an encampment, one that you can call situation altering
.
I keep noticing one thing here… NO ONE has any idea of the size of Russia, of the size of their ammunition stores, e.g.
Russia …in its east-west extension is larger than the flight route Moscow – DC in the USA !!!

Posted by: mo3 | Feb 15 2023 15:42 utc | 294

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 14 2023 21:52 utc | 119

@Macpott | Feb 14 2023 21:48 utc | 117
What is that supposed to mean? Are you also reading my mind?

Norsk, norskie baby, calma Bucefalo. Don’t let him get your goat.
Is it a pretty goat ?
…
(Asking for a friend)

Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Feb 15 2023 16:11 utc | 295

Posted by: rk | Feb 15 2023 16:16 utc | 296

A little sarcasm doesn’t hurt:
Too many value judgments based on the statements of politicians and interpretations made by the media. Few judgments based on the analysis of failed forecasts and contrasting evidence.
The narrative that is promoted in the media has a basic function: to shape public opinion according to basic thought patterns. This “narrative of war” is as old as the human being, but, in this age of social networks, it has acquired relevance.
Making a critical analysis of the assumptions that underlie all public narratives is a requirement to understand their objectives. The understanding of the finalities is necessary to categorize the narratives and deconstruct their fallacies.
Example from western narrative:
1. Putin has invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
2. Putin’s forces besiege kyiv, but Ukraine resists the siege. Russian troops encircle the suburbs of the capital.
3. Indiscriminate attacks on kyiv cause terror among the population. Scenes of terror among the inhabitants of kyiv.
4. Massacre of Russia in Bucha. The forced withdrawal of Russian troops leaves dozens of civilian corpses and hundreds of rapes. The victims appeal to the UN.
5. Putin is running out of weapons. Experts consulted affirm that Russia is withdrawing because it is depleting its stock.
6. Putin is running out of weapons and the Russian army is suffering untold losses. The US and the EU believe that Russia faces a defeat that threatens Putin’s leadership.
7. Impartial observer experts say that Putin suffers from cancer, and his mental health is questioned by military elites.
8. Lyman is liberated from the Russian occupation. The EU and USA refuse to negotiate with Russia until it ends the invasion.
9. Russia withdraws from Kherson with countless casualties.
10. Russia is running out of weapons and suffering heavy losses at Kherson. Impartial observer experts warn that Putin may resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
11. After the failure of Lyma and Kherson, where Russian troops were decimated, anonymous expert observers warn that Putin’s poor health and complaints from the Russian population could lead to regime change.
…
70. Zelensky requests weapons from the West before Putin’s new offensive for the anniversary.
71. The EU and the UK estimate that they lack the weapons to resist Russia for a week. To stop Putin, we need diplomacy based on the strength of our values, says Borrell. If we don’t stop Russia now, the fate of Europe is at stake.
…
80. According to anonymous expert observers, in the spring of 2023, Ukraine will launch a counteroffensive that will make it possible to recapture even Crimea.
By the grace of God.
War is war: a mess for us, a balloon for…

Posted by: Jeeva | Feb 15 2023 16:16 utc | 297

This isn’t a big camp!
Posted by: mo3 | Feb 15 2023 15:42 utc | 297
—
The pictures show 3 weeks of force in motion.
An example of other forward staging areas that haven’t yet been revealed.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 15 2023 16:28 utc | 298

Ukrainian channel – “Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President handed over to MI-6 the plans of the Ukrainian General Staff for a military operation against Transnistria. Britain must push through the President of Moldova and achieve tacit consent to the military operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the PMR, which will allow us to replenish stocks of ammunition for Soviet equipment. Two kilometers from the border with Ukraine, on the territory of the PMR, there is the largest ammunition depot in Europe. It is located in the village of Kolbasna. This arsenal is guarded by the task force of Russian troops (OGRF), stationed in Transnistria, as well as local military. According to a number of experts, the amount of ammunition from the warehouse in Transnistria will be enough for several years of the war.”
Posted by: rk | Feb 15 2023 16:16 utc | 299
.
Ah ok !
Do you also know the directive of this troop for the Dall that you are attacked?
.
Should the situation arise that this camp falls into enemy hands, it must be destroyed.
.
Means the world would hear the biggest explosion since Krakatoa erupted.
With a destructive power that would reach far to Poland Romania etc….
Apart from the fact that if the order is not carried out, it would lead Putin to destroy these camps by ALL the available means.
.
The plan itself to raid this camp is due to one single fact:
Europe = West including USA the ammunition is running out !!!
Ergo, a plan born out of necessity and an act of desperation.
The effects of World War 3, which we already have there… would bring to Europe.
Alone because of the damage to be expected in neighboring countries and… FINAL DEFOLIATION in the immediate vicinity.
.
Note: NO one really knows what else is in the bunkers….even the “all-knowing” Englishmen, at least they pretend they will NOT know…not even the CIA or former allies of the Warsaw Pact states ever knew what was stored there and how much… short.. whether there is anything left at all!
With the corruption under Yeltsin everything was possible that was stolen…

Posted by: mo3 | Feb 15 2023 17:22 utc | 299

Ah ok !
Do you also know the directive of this troop for the Dall that you are attacked?
.
Should the situation arise that this camp falls into enemy hands, it must be destroyed.
.
Means the world would hear the biggest explosion since Krakatoa erupted.
With a destructive power that would reach far to Poland Romania etc….
Apart from the fact that if the order is not carried out, it would lead Putin to destroy these camps by ALL the available means.
.
The plan itself to raid this camp is due to one single fact:
Europe = West including USA the ammunition is running out !!!
Ergo, a plan born out of necessity and an act of desperation.
The effects of World War 3, which we already have there… would bring to Europe.
Alone because of the damage to be expected in neighboring countries and… FINAL DEFOLIATION in the immediate vicinity.
.
Note: NO one really knows what else is in the bunkers….even the “all-knowing” Englishmen, at least they pretend they will NOT know…not even the CIA or former allies of the Warsaw Pact states ever knew what was stored there and how much… short.. whether there is anything left at all!
With the corruption under Yeltsin everything was possible that was stolen…
.
But well, the English put a flea in their ear… Stupid Selensky jumps ?
Who is sooo stupid and leaves such camps active at least in quantity a few kilometers in front of NATO???
Putin ?

Posted by: mo3 | Feb 15 2023 17:27 utc | 300

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