Ukraine - Those Guns Unknown To Me
Over the last months I read each Daily Report on the war in Ukraine by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
The reports list the losses of the Ukrainian side on each of the major fronts. I was especially interested in the dedicated counter-artillery campaign the Russian's have been waging during the last two months.
They numbers in the Russian reports may be wrong or exaggerated but they are in a range that is plausible for such a high intensity operation.
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The average daily Ukrainian losses are 12 major artillery pieces, one artillery radar and 3 to 4 artillery ammunition points or depots. The Ukrainian losses of men are listed at around 400+ per day. (The reports exclude the Wagner operations in Bakhmut/Artyomovsk.)
For the one month I recorded 214 destroyed truck pulled howitzers, 92 destroyed self-propelled howitzers and 56 destroyed Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). About 12,000 Ukrainian troops were also reported to have been killed.
For comparison the artillery 'fist' of a NATO tank or motorized infantry division is its artillery brigade. It consists of 3 fire battalions each of which has 3 fire companies each of which has 6 guns or MLRS. That is a total of 52 major artillery pieces.
Losing a total of 362 major artillery pieces as Ukraine has done in a month is a lot, much more than the 'west' is able to replace. The current lack of ammunition that Ukraine claims to have will soon change into an oversupply simply because Ukraine will lack the guns and MLRS to fire it.
But that isn't the focus of this piece.
I have wondered about some howitzer/gun types the reports mentioned as destroyed. I had never heard of those and had to look them up.
What is for example the M101 truck pulled howitzer?
After World War I, the U.S. Army Ordnance Department studied various captured German 105 mm-caliber howitzers and developed the 105 mm Howitzer M1920 on Carriage M1920.
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A modified version of the M1 was trialed in 1932 which used semi-fixed ammunition instead of separate-loading ammunition.
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The original M1 carriage had been designed for towing using horses rather than trucks, and a new carriage, the T5 (M2), was developed in 1939 and standardized in February 1940.
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The U.S. military artillery designation system was changed in 1962, redesignating the M2A1 howitzer the M101A1.
So the M101, pictured below, is a U.S. copy of a German army howitzer design from World War I. Some 10,000 have been build mostly during World War II.
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The ones Ukraine has, and the two Russia claimed to have destroyed, were gifts from the Lithuanian army reserve.
The D-44 anti-tank gun was also unknown to me:
The 85-mm divisional gun D-44 (Russian: 85-мм дивизионная пушка Д-44) was a Soviet divisional 85-mm calibre field artillery gun used in the last action of World War II.
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The barrel was developed from that of the T-34-85 tank and was capable of firing 20–25 high-explosive (HE), armor-piercing, and high-explosive antitank (HEAT) projectiles per minute.
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A nice little museum piece.
There is also the Rapira anti tank gun which turns out to be a bit more modern:
2A19 or T-12 is a Soviet-designed 100-mm anti-tank gun. It was the first anti-tank gun to adopt a smoothbore barrel, and to introduce modern armor piercing shot, like the APFSDS. It uses long projectiles that are more powerful than its caliber suggests.
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In 1971 a new variant was introduced, T-12A or MT-12 "Rapira" (2A29). This has the same barrel, but has a redesigned carriage and gun shield.
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By the mid-1990s modern western tanks' frontal armor protection could no longer be penetrated by a 100 mm gun. The 100 mm caliber ammunition had reached the limits of what could be achieved with it.
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It is sad to see that the Ukrainian army has to use such museum pieces. Yes, they still may be useful in special cases. Also having such guns is probably better than having no gun at all.
But they have no chance to survive or even win on a more recent battle field.
Posted by b on February 25, 2023 at 11:50 UTC | Permalink
next page »> That is a total of 52 major artillery pieces.
60-6 = 54 :-)
Posted by: Arioch | Feb 25 2023 12:06 utc | 1
"Losing a total of 362 major artillery pieces as Ukraine has done in a month is a lot, much more than the 'west' is able to replace. The current lack of ammunition that Ukraine claims to have will soon change into an oversupply simply because Ukraine will lack the guns and MLRS to fire it."
-op / b
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Glad your tracking that, and an interesting observation that had not occurred to me.
Looks like Rybar confirming total control of Yagodny completed today, Dubovo-V still ongoing.
situation as of 13.00 February 25, 2023🔻In the north of Bakhmut, assault detachments of the Wagner PMC completed the cleansing of the village of Yagodnoye , a settlement under the control of Russian units. The loss of Yagodny forced the personnel of the 25th rifle battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to withdraw from one of the quarters in the Stupka area .
▪️In addition, the "Wagnerites" entered Dubovo-Vasilevka , from which paratroopers of the 46th detachment of the Airborne Forces of Ukraine retreated from Bogdanovka at night under the cover of artillery. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are firing at the village with the help of MLRS and attack aircraft.
▪️Now Ukrainian units are rapidly preparing the defense line Grigorovka - Bogdanovka - Chasov Yar . ATGM firing positions are being set up in the apartment buildings of Chasy Yar.
❗️After the final mopping up of Yagodny and Dubovo-Vasilevka, the most logical direction of attack will be Khromovo . It is through this suburb, along with Berkhovka, that the remaining supply routes for the AFU grouping on the northern outskirts of Bakhmut previously pass.
...
https://t.me/rybar/43973
As for the later ("defensive lines"), one of the cons of moving slower, not that I'm one of those "hurry up" people, but I'm not blind to the con side the equation either.
Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 25 2023 12:11 utc | 2
Then again....there are all those reported ammo depos mentioned in the same source reports, so maybe not? Also then again rarely do they mention how sizable said ammo depos were in the reports unless they were particularly notable.
Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 25 2023 12:17 utc | 3
Talking about high intensity operations...Channel 10 in Oz broadcast a 1 hour Uke War special on Saturday night starring UK TV 'survivalist' Bear Grylls. He was soaking up some recycled havoc film clips and bonding with Zelenski.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Feb 25 2023 12:23 utc | 4
According to the BBC, more of these guns will prove a game changer. According to me, there is more chance of The Ukraine exporting tomato juice.
Posted by: Merkin Scot | Feb 25 2023 12:23 utc | 5
One must be careful with the numbers and wording. They may say "enemy soldiers destroyed" but that doesn't have to mean "killed". They may say "artillery pieces destroyed" but that doesn't mean "unfixable" or that the artillery piece was not a decoy.
Posted by: Vikichka | Feb 25 2023 12:36 utc | 6
Regarding the destruction of parts of Western origin, it was reported that in Poland there are repair shops that rehabilitate parts that did not suffer total destruction in four or five weeks. Regarding these of the article, more typical of a museum, I doubt kyiv will even consider the repair. Between the pieces that continue to be shipped from the West and those that are rehabilitated, kyiv may have a certain arsenal to defend itself, but inevitably there will be fewer and fewer pieces that can be fixed.
Posted by: Dorsai | Feb 25 2023 12:36 utc | 7
Interesting piece, thanks.
A question if I may, regarding these obsolete museum pieces: where is the compatible ammunition coming from? If we are looking at 70- or 80-year old designs, surely the ammo manufacturers would have long since discontinued production?
Regarding the accuracy of the Russian MoD figures I reckon they are pretty close, if only because there aren’t too many howls of outraged refutation coming from the other side. I also don’t see any real advantage to be gained from wholesale exaggeration, especially with Russia indicating to the wider world “Look, we are patient, we are honest, trust our words.”
Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 25 2023 12:37 utc | 8
How many of those artillery pieces claimed as destroyed were repaired and sent back into the field? I've seen many videos of Artillery claimed as destroyed by Lancet loitering munitions that appeared only superficially damaged. Apparently there are 2 Lancets ... a small one and a smaller one ... the smallest one seems to have all the punch of a hand grenade. The Russians need a big fat one.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Feb 25 2023 12:43 utc | 9
Ukraine has also been using Maxim guns. First time I posted this I included a link, since then have seen a few more notices of same in use. These are 1880s tech. Pure museum pieces. Except for the part where people die this is a comic opera war.
Come to think of it I previously posted about the M101.
Posted by: oldhippie | Feb 25 2023 12:46 utc | 10
b, this will be the last time I get back at you for slamming me over Hersh, but you didn’t happen to notice that Ukraine lost six tanks in just two days, did you?
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 25 2023 12:48 utc | 11
Pure museum pieces.
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Where I live these are hobby guns.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2023 12:50 utc | 12
“You can never overstate Joe’s ability to fuck things up.” Barack Obama
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/the-world-has-enough-trouble/
Posted by: expat.jr | Feb 25 2023 13:15 utc | 13
Did anyone compared the total numbers of deliveries announced officially by NATO/US and the number of losses reported by RF MoD ?
i'm curious if those numbers are accurate.
Posted by: disorder | Feb 25 2023 13:19 utc | 14
Wow B!! This is excellent information and it really helps someone like me to understand what the equipment actually is and does.
Posted by: Jo Dominich | Feb 25 2023 13:23 utc | 15
Demonstration for peace in Berlin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tZKTVGKKAE
Posted by: Apollyon | Feb 25 2023 13:25 utc | 16
Posted by: disorder | Feb 25 2023 13:19 utc | 14
I did in a comment about a month ago. By then the promised tanks would make up for the losses during one to two months, ie by the time they were delivered they would only fill the newly created gaps and not create the basis for an offensive.
Since then so many tanks have been promised and unpromised I’ve lost count.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 25 2023 13:26 utc | 17
This is all very well but can those old guns be operated by school boys and pensioners ?
No matter what antique weaponry they have, they are losing manpower at a colossal rate. The military skill base ever diminishing for the front line and retraining conscripts.
My thinking is that the whole Ukraine military is about to implode country wide,
Ther must be a huge amount of angry widows and orphans.
You won't hear that on BBC News,
So we all think its business as usual.
Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 25 2023 13:32 utc | 18
Fun site and you might have to translate
https://aftershock.news/?q=node/1216022
Posted by: jo6pac | Feb 25 2023 13:33 utc | 19
I want to point out that the "repairs" are being done in Poland. That means shipping the broken gun all the way from Dunbas to Poland, then 4-5 weeks to repair and finally (eating up limited logistic capacity) being shipped back east. So 6 to 10 weeks out of action. Clearly there will be write offs and this trickle back will slowly collapse. It's not a viable long term solution.
Posted by: Darren | Feb 25 2023 13:40 utc | 20
As b points out, much of the equipment being destroyed is obsolete junk. Once it's gone, it makes it easier to get legislative approval to fund manufacture of new hardware = $$$ for those involved.
In many ways this is a phony war and have been saying this since April last year. Real people are fighting and dying, but something about it is half-hearted on both sides. I think there have been back-room deals from the get-go. This is all part of an operation whose purpose is to re-order world relations, financial systems and more. Or something like that.
https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/russia-has-no-strategy-for-winning
This author calls it a 'non-war.' He makes some good points in so doing and has written more about this in the past few days since this article was published.
Also, Texas Bentley in Donbass and his Spetnaz friend who was killed in combat last year both feel that the Russian MoD reports are garbage. So just because they publish numbers in a sober, consistent responsible-looking way doesn't mean the numbers correspond to anything in reality.
Posted by: Darren | Feb 25 2023 13:40 utc | 20
Some weeks ago there were news that it's very hard to get the disabled tanks or artillery pieces out from combat zones. From rear it can potentially be possible, but this procedure also produces opportunity costs, namely the tanks or vehicles that are pulling them out can't be used for something else. Then there's the +1000km transport back and forth to Poland. It must be a very low rate of total which actually go through this process.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 25 2023 13:50 utc | 22
Jo Dominich no. 15
Came across this by pure accident:
It's called "weapons of Ukraine" your essential guide.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Feb 25 2023 13:52 utc | 23
The only problem with this story is that it relies on the assumption that Russian MoD figures are correct.
Posted by: Neven Acropolis | Feb 25 2023 13:52 utc | 24
I thought this phrase from 'War and Peace' was apt.
Quos vult perdere, dementat. (those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad)
This was describing a Polish commander wishing to show his bravado in front of Napoleon by having his men swim their horses across the Nieman into Russia in 1812. 40 men died in the swim.
The commander was awarded the order of the Légion d'honneur by a distracted Napoleon.
Posted by: financial matters | Feb 25 2023 14:00 utc | 25
unimperator | Feb 25 2023 13:50 utc | 22
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Don't forget to add on the Slovakian import fees\taxes for each piece being transferred over their border, something Ukraine at least till last week was refusing to pay. Thus gear destined to repair facilities (that DE setup) in that nation for howitzers, sat piling up in some waiting yard near Uzhorod instead of moving on to the repair depot. Or so it was reported by some german press, which I found hilarious, _if true_ - though it wouldn't surprise me in the least. $$ talks, bs waits on the other side of the border.
Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 25 2023 14:07 utc | 27
where is the compatible ammunition coming from?
Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 25 2023 12:37 utc | 8
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Frequently when a country suspends support for a gun platform the entire manufacturing back-end is sold off as single lot rather than separate lots, especially if their is an interested party in acquiring (or destroying) the production capacity.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2023 14:08 utc | 28
Since then so many tanks have been promised and unpromised I’ve lost count.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 25 2023 13:26 utc | 17
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Haha I know exactly what you mean. Take this from earlier today:
Donbass Insider Forwarded from UKR LEAKS_fr
No "Leopard" tanks: the Finnish Defense Ministry clarified what exactly will be handed over to KievYesterday the media reported that Finland will transfer three Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine under the 13th military aid program .
A few hours later, the Ministry of Defense of this country clarified that it was not Leopard tanks that were being prepared for shipment to Kiev, but three armored mine-clearing vehicles based on the Leopard 2 tank. They are designed for reconnaissance and clearing terrain, but they are not suitable for battles.
Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 25 2023 14:15 utc | 29
Meanwhile in the UK, The Independent newspaper confidently assured its readers yesterday (24feb23) that Russia was about to lose the war due to a shortage of ammunition and KIA. Reader comments were even less illuminating although most are probably paid MOD shills. However it would be useful to have a pinnable thread with KIA/MIA and source links, also artillery usage estimates and sources. It's all available but a lot is not linked or is verbal report in v-logs like New Atlas or Duran. Perhaps someone has already done this research?
Posted by: tom paine | Feb 25 2023 14:23 utc | 30
@ Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 25 2023 12:17 utc | 3
I suspect that most of these "dumps" are delivery trucks, or simply storage near a battery. Not a great crippling, unless you are the ones depending on that ammo. Plus ammo could be small arms and shoulder fired missiles, so not all attacks will impact artillery use.
I also saw a video on female Ukrainian soldier. She had 1/2 of left leg amputated and right foot. She said it happened during an ammo delivery. I think it was her first mission. More evidence on the personnel side. Women quickly conscripted (or coerced to volunteer) for delivery duties. So the human side of the Russian figures are probably close to reality also.
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Feb 25 2023 14:26 utc | 31
I also saw a video on female Ukrainian soldier.
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Feb 25 2023 14:26 utc | 31
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Thirst trap, now ironic meme.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2023 14:31 utc | 32
anniversaries:
2014 the 60th anniversary of the usa maltreating the geneva accords on indochina/vietnam and the start of disabusing minsk agreements!
2023 the 60th anniversary of us dissolving the diem government in south vietnam, where will elensky be in november 2023?
and so it goes....
Posted by: paddy | Feb 25 2023 14:33 utc | 33
starring UK TV 'survivalist' Bear Grylls.
Son of Tory MP, Old Etonian, and was 21 SAS (Territorial)............he also took up Irish Citizenship because he is a "Remainer"............
He has his standpoint and is welcome to it - he does not have to be right
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Feb 25 2023 14:36 utc | 34
Artillery effect: Newsweek quotes an American fighting in Ukraine saying that a Ukr soldier's life expectancy is about 4 hours.
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 25 2023 14:37 utc | 35
The numbers may also show an effectiveness ratio.
The number of destroyed pieces and counter battery radars vs the number of attacks.
A rather low 14%.
Adding in the supply depots gets 19%.
Make your own judgement if this is good or not.
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Feb 25 2023 14:37 utc | 36
Re: De-dollarization
Interesting Twitter feed of a fellow obessed with interest rate increases and their devastating effects on Federal Gov‘t budget. Lots of good data on Federal Debt ladder etc.
https://twitter.com/LukeGromen
Posted by: Exile | Feb 25 2023 14:38 utc | 37
I don't think that the hyenas (the collective West) stacking Ukraine with such antiquities intend it to win. A battering ram is a disposable object, as long as it gets the job done. Although in this instance I think the battering ram is just going to be damaged for nothing, without getting the job done.
Posted by: Steve | Feb 25 2023 14:42 utc | 38
@Steve | Feb 25 2023 14:42 utc | 38
Agreed. The expressed goal is to "weaken Russia" and "decolonize" it, that is to say take over Russias vast natural resources. What happens to Ukraine they don't care for one second.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2023 14:54 utc | 39
My thinking is that the whole Ukraine military is about to implode country wide,
Ther must be a huge amount of angry widows and orphans.
You won't hear that on BBC News,
So we all think its business as usual.
Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 25 2023 13:32 utc | 18
The sooner the better.
What then when the inevitable happens?
The US NATO big bet will be a busted flush.
Where's the next escalation going to be from team Biden.
Posted by: jpc | Feb 25 2023 15:03 utc | 40
Posted by: jpc | Feb 25 2023 15:03 utc | 40
It won't implode. The whole country is too rotten out to "implode", implying that there's no structure or integrity where one part imploding could affect the other part. In Ukraine, Nato and US state department is relying on 100 % suppression of front line information, and nazi factions (goons) in order to intimidate and draft people. The whole country is like millions of isolated pockets where one part doesn't interact with others.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 25 2023 15:09 utc | 41
Posted by: Vikichka | Feb 25 2023 12:36 utc | 6
One must be careful with the numbers and wording. They may say 'enemy soldiers destroyed' but that doesn't have to mean 'killed'
OK, I give up.
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Feb 25 2023 15:13 utc | 42
I was in my wood shop, I got to thinking, what the Ukies need is Trebuchet's, lots of them, the top of the line type, design to follow...
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 25 2023 15:14 utc | 43
The Ukrainian field artillery teams may overall have more experience than the Russian field artillery teams. This is because they have been firing upon Donetsk City and other since 2014. Also, they have been given excellent support from the USA and NATO in honing in the accuracy of their artillery.
Of course, a lot of the Ukrainian artillery teams have been taken out. Yet, overall the Ukrainian field artillery teams have been quite effective despite losing a lot of artillery and shells.
However, as their lines of defense are moved in retreat, this will hamper the accuracy of the Ukrainian field artillery teams.
Now Ukraine is very hungry to get its hands on the stored ammo in Transnistria. So, I think they will go for it. Of course the Russians in Transnistria could blow the ammo dumps there. This would make the Transnistria target by Ukraine less attractive.
As the war continues to escalate, there is only one conclusion. That is a coming launch date. I suspect such will occur just after Russia takes and secures the Donbas. This would be an ideal time from a military perspective to take out the USA and NATO. This would also be in alignment with the prophecy of Daniel 7:5.
Posted by: young | Feb 25 2023 15:18 utc | 44
Remarkable moment at the UN...!
https://twitter.com/BahmanKalbasi/status/1629149586223775745
Posted by: Flavius | Feb 25 2023 15:18 utc | 45
Thirst trap, now ironic meme.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2023 14:31 utc | 32
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;)
Speaking of thurst...
Being reported by some that Ukrainians blew one of the smaller dams in north Bakhmut this morning in an attempt to slow Wagners advance down (or cover their own retreat from very northern tip of Bahkmut proper), I guess. Most of it will just flow into Bakhmut river though, but suppose it'll buy them the few hours or the day needed to bail on that little section east of the railway east of Yahidne down to the industrial park 'ish, as that's the likely direction of the flow.
source: https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/45958 and
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/45970
In other news Iran reviled it's new defensive (smile) Paveh cruise missile, ground vehicle launched, turbine type engine, with claimed max range of 1650km/890nmi, I doubt will we see any these show up in Ukraine, but you never know. I could say it looks basically like ground launched kh-101 (with added booster in the rear), but most CM's look kinda similar so I will not say that.
Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 25 2023 15:24 utc | 47
This armchair General would take the Russian Guards out, move the population back and issue an invitation "Please visit the ammo dump"
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Feb 25 2023 15:24 utc | 48
Posted by: young | Feb 25 2023 15:18 utc | 44
"Now Ukraine is very hungry to get its hands on the stored ammo in Transnistria. So, I think they will go for it. Of course the Russians in Transnistria could blow the ammo dumps there. This would make the Transnistria target by Ukraine less attractive"
At least according to what we have been publicly told, it will be Unlikely that Ukraine will be able to use that ammunition; as it is considered very unstable(rusted,duds) but I guess that noone cares for Ukros' lives,right?
Unlikely Russia will be able to blow up the dump as it would be like blowing up another Nagasaki and Hiroshima again at a minimmum.
I really don't know what Russia will do if NATO invades Transnistria. We will see.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Feb 25 2023 15:30 utc | 49
My thinking is that the whole Ukraine military is about to implode country wide,
Ther must be a huge amount of angry widows and orphans.
You won't hear that on BBC News,
So we all think its business as usual.
Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 25 2023 13:32 utc | 18
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If that was the case, wouldn't we start at least hearing rumors (if not some video) of ordinary citizens taking at least pot-shots at these off the street "recruiters" snatching up people for conscription? That's the sign to me the real cracking has begun, till then idk that they've really had enough of this mess.
Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 25 2023 15:31 utc | 50
@ b,
Thanks Bro for the big alert.
Now we know why US-led NATO is begging to do a ruse negotiation; buy time until the promised materiel can be delivered later this year.
"They (UKR) are stripping the museums." Winning much.
Just a minute, while I signal the mayor in our neighbouring town to round up some guys with rifles and guard the WW 1 trophy tank in front of their park.
Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 25 2023 15:31 utc | 51
Posted by: Flavius | Feb 25 2023 15:18 utc | 45
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Welp there it is, all lives don't matter, no surprise.
Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 25 2023 15:37 utc | 52
Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 25 2023 15:31 utc | 50
I tend to agree with you. Nazi Germany was able to keep up war losses for years, and noone in authority cared . Mums,wives and daughters be damned.They were too scared and too disorganised then ,and I guess they it will be the same here in Elenskia. It will take some key top figures to turn, with a decent number of fighting armed men ,to take on the recruiters or even sign a capitulation or any treaty at all for that matter.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Feb 25 2023 15:37 utc | 53
In Bakhmut/Artemovsk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine blew up a dam on the Severny. It floods the Stupki, the lower streets. The water from the Northern Headquarters "left". Reports local TG channel.In people's basements, the water rises, there is no way to use them as a shelter.
Another signal that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are doing badly in the Bakhmutov meat grinder.
https://t.me/legitimniy/14854
Posted by: Down South | Feb 25 2023 15:39 utc | 54
There is a reason NATO keeps on sending obsolete scrap to Ukraine whilst keeping the high tech stuff far away from the battlefield
🇷🇺☝️Ryssia has studied enemy weapons well, Medvedev saysRussia has not only ramped up the production of its armaments but has also studied enemy weapons well and learned a lot of useful things for itself, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of the Russian Security Council, said in an article for the magazine National Defense.
"We are not just expanding production, but also introducing the latest technology, improving it literally 'on the march'. By the way, we have also studied the enemy armament, which was taken as trophies and dismantled in our military design bureaus. We have learned many useful things for ourselves - we used the enemy's experience to our advantage," said the deputy head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation.
This is precisely the reason why many European countries are dragging out the decision to send their fighters to Ukraine. Everything that is supplied to Ukraine will fall into our hands!
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/34935
Posted by: Down South | Feb 25 2023 15:43 utc | 55
I suspect many readers have found http://www.military-today.com/index.htm to be a useful resource for information on military equipment.
Posted by: Bima | Feb 25 2023 15:48 utc | 56
Peace Demo in Berlin today attracts 50,000 according to organizers.
Posted by: Exile | Feb 25 2023 16:04 utc | 57
Knighthawk @ 50
At fist thought you would think residents would group to together and prevent the conscription.
But that won't happen.
If it did the military would return and reek brutal reprisals on that village or area.
It's all been done before.
The French resistance discovered that to there own cost.
Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 25 2023 16:10 utc | 58
Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 25 2023 15:24 utc | 47
> east of the railway east of Yahidne
Yagodnoe in Russian. It means berry place.
Posted by: hopehely | Feb 25 2023 16:13 utc | 59
Unlikely Russia will be able to blow up the dump as it would be like blowing up another Nagasaki and Hiroshima again at a minimmum.
I really don't know what Russia will do if NATO invades Transnistria. We will see.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Feb 25 2023 15:30 utc | 49
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lat:70.7602 lon:29.2059
Idk looks doable maybe (to blow up), in pieces, and I tend to doubt nagasaki or hiroshima comparisons, if it would be like that, what's the point of little earthen barriers and spacing between the different depot buildings (each about 120x40ft) that are meant to protect from cases of accidents or strike? Just for show and a check box during design? Plus who knows how many of those buildings are actually filled vs how many are largely empty (already plundered over the years), and who knows what's been done in the last 12mo, they could have moved most of the actual still valuable stuff around to just a few buildings. Blow those, leaving the stuff that is truly ancient and probably more a hazard than anything for those that want it to come take it (and probably kill themselves either in process of transporting it or trying to use it). Would most if cook off over hours more than explode at once anyway? Asking because I don't know.
It doesn't strike me as the potential juice being worth the potential squeeze for NATO/Ukr, but I don't know what others might know about what's really there or not, and in what quantities and condition at this point, and NATO loves to keep digging new holes against advice to stop digging.
Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 25 2023 16:14 utc | 60
https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/russia-has-no-strategy-for-winning
This author calls it a 'non-war.' He makes some good points in so doing and has written more about this in the past few days since this article was published.
===
Posted by: Scorpion | Feb 25 2023 13:46 utc | 21
Modern war is much too destructive to be pursued in an uncompromising way, this has been true since WWI at least.
Since wars cannot be pursued to the death, they tend naturally to elements of political theater.
The USA has made a way of life of nasty little theatrical wars against enemies of inferior technical means. Guerilla war is nothing if not theater.
The media hype and report on the wars as theater, that is why it is theater.
Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 25 2023 16:15 utc | 61
For Nato its not about how many Ukrainians survive, they are utterly expendable, its about trying to use all means necessary (even using ancient weapons) to try and weaken Russia.
What I find utterly amazing is that I haven't read anything from any prominent or respected Ukrainian who knows fine well that Ukraine and its people are being used to try and further expand Western hegemony. Maybe no such Ukrainians exist, if so I find that a pretty sad state of affairs.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 25 2023 16:16 utc | 62
They also serve who only stand and draw fire.
A modern artillery piece flanked by two older museum pieces will be much more effective that a modern artillery piece standing by itself. The museum pieces will draw fire and greatly increase the survivability of the modern one, and even an older 100 mm shell can ruin your day if it falls on your head.
Posted by: TG | Feb 25 2023 16:22 utc | 63
The media hype and report on the wars as theater, that is why it is theater.
Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 25 2023 16:15 utc | 61
All good points.
But often the conflict is described as 'existential for the Russians.' It certainly seems to be so for Ukraine which doubtless will be a far different polity when this is all over. And yet, there is a 'managed conflict' feel to it sometimes which perhaps explains many of the things which don't quite seem to add up, some of which was brought up in the article. If that is more or less accurate a view, then the existential threat quotient is far more theatre than reality and that includes the Russians playing parts therein as well.
I regard anything coming out of the mouth of any Western source - including Hersh - as lies upon lies, that way I know am right about 80% of the time. But just because the Western side are all unprincipled liars doesn't mean their antagonists are pure as the driven snow either. So I don't trust any of 'em!!!
Anyway...
Last night I read a doozy. Imho, a profound essay by William Schryver - his critique with anotations on Arta Moeini's article: Is the West escalating the Ukraine War.
I highly recommend my fellow patrons of the bar, please read and enjoy. The headline sets the tome:
Tectonic shift
The Ontological Incoherence of American Imperial Exceptionalism
--selected excerpts for the flavour --
[a Warning: Nuland's face is featured]
[.]
Moeini’s article emerges from the milieu of the past several weeks, during which time we have observed a pronounced rhetorical revolution in the popular western narratives regarding the NATO/Russia war in Ukraine.“Lost cause” is in the air. Many who have privately known this to be the case for some time have finally been sufficiently emboldened to publicly embrace the obvious – albeit reluctantly, and often with a good measure of rationalization and lingering misinformation in tow.
To be clear, I found Moeini’s essay a worthwhile read; thought-provoking on multiple levels – although not always in the way I suspect he intended. And I more or less agree with the majority of his observations of matters as they currently stand.[.]
Nor does it require an aspiring think-tank geopolitical “expert” to inform one at this juncture that the gambit to use Ukraine as a kamikaze bomber to mortally wound Russia has failed abysmally in every fundamental geostrategic respect.
Indeed, it has backfired in multiple largely unforeseen and now irreversible ways.[.]
The Immovable Object
Meanwhile, Moeini continues (emphasis added):
Ukraine’s future as a sovereign state would now hinge on its ability to successfully engineer an escalation.
…
For it is in Kyiv’s interests to steer Nato into becoming more closely entangled in the war.The essential premise of both phrases is false – preposterously so. If the author is not dissembling in stating them, then he is tragically disinformed as to the reality of events as they have transpired.
Ukraine is not a principal actor in this movie. They are playing the “cast of millions” part.
This is and always has been a power struggle between the current iteration of western empire and its favorite nemesis: Russia. That is the context in which it is being prosecuted, and defines the terms upon which it will be decided.
“Escalation” was always an essential parameter of the empire’s calculus. The dissolution and vassalization of continental Russia has never ceased to be the prime directive. The imperial suzerains simply failed to accurately perceive that the Russians possessed escalatory supremacy.
They erroneously imagined themselves to be the irresistible force and dismissed the historical evidence that Russia is the immovable object.
That increasingly evident reality has now abruptly sobered the western masters of war and forced them to reassess the entire equation of the conflict.[.] (original emphasis)
Full article: Read and enjoy
http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2023/february/24/the-ontological-incoherence-of-american-imperial-exceptionalism/
As Mr. Schryver notes, we should keep an eye on the trio - 'in their arrogance' the west built the Perfect Beast and this is what they got:
....., the single most potent military/economic/geostrategic alliance seen in modern times: the tripartite axis of Russia, China, and Iran.
Add may I add, in the next 3 months after the BRICS' Committee on new membership criteria has concluded discussions regarding Iran and Saudi Arabia membership applications, we will expand the acronym BRICS to BRIICSS+ [among the countries in waiting: Algeria, Argentina, Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, Mexico, Nigeria]
Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 25 2023 16:35 utc | 65
The Soviets did not throw stuff away. They mothballed old equipment to fit out "second formation" or reserve divisions of old reservists to use when they and everyone else had run out of good formations. They reasoned a division manned by old and unfit reservists, and equipped with obsolete equipment was better than no division at all.
It is no surprise that the UAF is dragging out this stuff from storage and finding old and fat and unfit reservists to use it. However their capability and life expectancy against a regular RF unit must be limited.
Posted by: marcjf | Feb 25 2023 16:40 utc | 66
The whole country is like millions of isolated pockets where one part doesn't interact with others.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 25 2023 15:09 utc | 41
Grim but totally plausible scenario unimperator.
Never considered that the coercion is so complete in the Ukraine.
Posted by: jpc | Feb 25 2023 16:46 utc | 67
But often the conflict is described as 'existential for the Russians.' It certainly seems to be so for Ukraine which doubtless will be a far different polity when this is all over. And yet, there is a 'managed conflict' feel to it sometimes which perhaps explains many of the things which don't quite seem to add up, some of which was brought up in the article. If that is more or less accurate a view, then the existential threat quotient is far more theatre than reality and that includes the Russians playing parts therein as well.
I regard anything coming out of the mouth of any Western source - including Hersh - as lies upon lies, that way I know am right about 80% of the time. But just because the Western side are all unprincipled liars doesn't mean their antagonists are pure as the driven snow either. So I don't trust any of 'em!!!
Anyway...
Posted by: Scorpion | Feb 25 2023 16:26 utc | 64
Yeah. It is so.
Every day is existential for all of us, we just don't think about it much.
And western politicians don't ALWAYS lie, it is just the way to bet. Mostly I listen to them to see what they are lying about, or their emotional state.
Sullivan looks very annoyed.
Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 25 2023 16:50 utc | 68
@37 Exile
Great link thank you for posting it! It sort of pertains to what the US/UK is going thru right now.
Loved the comment by Luke which made me laugh soooo hard- What force is strong enough to destroy the US Military?
A: Compounding Interest which is undefeated all-time vs Hegemons.
Posted by: safe | Feb 25 2023 16:52 utc | 69
... Ther must be a huge amount of angry widows and orphans ...
Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 25 2023 13:32 utc | 18
.... funny you should say that ... don't know if it's genuine or not but ...
For you, everyone else is to blame for everything. You collect all the scrap metal from all over the European Union! You make young guys who have newborn babies and pregnant wives go to the front. You changed the law, so now even sixteen year olds are conscripted, and seventeen year olds go to the hot spots. You’re even the official sponsor of fucking British scientists who dissect our guys for organs.
ANGRY UKRAINIANS APPEAL TO ZELENSKY
https://southfront.org/kneel-down-and-ask-forgiveness-angry-ukrainians-appeal-to-zelensky/
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Feb 25 2023 16:52 utc | 70
@44 young
Read an interesting tidbit from War24/7. There were reports that a lot of the ammo and equipment stored there is old as dirt, thirty years sitting there and never moved or rotated. Some of it is dangerous as hell to transport and lots of it possibly completely useless cuz of the expiry date. There may be only 3-4 months of actual real supply left there.
Posted by: safe | Feb 25 2023 16:58 utc | 71
Funny, both sides persistently predict the other side running out of ammunition and "imminent collapse of regime" despite perpetual & continued failure of said predictions.
How do West/Ukraine and Russia continue to get ammunition after so many months of predictions of running out? How do Putin and Zelensky continue to stay in power after so many claims of "the regime will fall any minute now"?
Nobody is interested in asking these questions.
How about this for a prediction?
Putin's and Zelensky's grand children will continue to hurl rocks, a.k.a. "ammunition" at each other using trebuchets, a.k.a. "artillery cannons" long after the world, as we know it, was nuked into a post apocalyptic world by a global war that started by a skirmish between US and China in the South China Sea.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Feb 25 2023 17:00 utc | 72
The Russian MOD depends on reports from the front. That they can be inaccurate is not surprising. You can't very well ask the other side to stop shooting for a few hours while you do a body count.
Concerning the museum pieces. As long as they can find functional ammo for them they are still of value. In fact a few hundred T-34's would still be a potent weapon in the hands of a commander who understood the proper employment of mechanized forces on a modern battlefield.
Posted by: ZhukovG | Feb 25 2023 17:10 utc | 73
reply to 50
I wholeheartedly agree. Ukrainian men willingly go to almost certain death with only minor resistance. The cries of wives and mothers are irrelevant. If an impressment gang was gunned down, there would be hope but that never seems to happen. Maybe the bold and intelligent have already left Ukraine and Saint Darwin will eliminate the rest.
I could see Zaluzhny mustering up enough courage to go "Mannerheim", if he gets enough support from Western leaders. He did bring it up, after all.
The best analogy here is the US Civil War. The South needed a quick victory because the North would win any war of attrition. Lee surrendered his army, not the CSA government. Ukraine will be brought down in disorganized pieces - which just increases the pointless suffering. But hey, maybe that means Russia can roll into Odessa.
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 25 2023 17:13 utc | 74
Military Summary today claims UAF is having a lot of problems now.
Not only in Bakhmut, but during a Seversk rotation process the Russians managed to hit their reinforcement convoy with artillery. Avdeevka is problematic. In the Kupyansk front, the Russians claim that they here more foreign language chatter than before, which means the composition of foreign mercs in UAF keeps creeping up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Y8Aeu4HG_g
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 25 2023 17:20 utc | 75
A point that will undoubtedly become relevant if this conflict drags on is that artillery rockets, especially those of smaller caliber and simpler guidance, can be easily fired from improvised launch frames (mild steel tubes and an A-frame of scaffolding poles). The larger and smarter rockets can almost certainly be fired off with just little more technical skill.
Pakistan has supposedly shipped 10000 122mm BM-21 Grad rockets to Ukraine. These are likely to be the unguided ballistic variants that are very easy to fire from single use improvised launch sites, no MLRS vehicles required and nothing worth tracking down after the fact.
Given that these Grad missiles are likely rather short range, the survivable of any launch vehicle would be low so launching them from disposable frames would almost have to be the plan from the outset.
Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 25 2023 17:28 utc | 76
This is an effective form of resistance
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/45996
🇩🇪 Ukrainian action in Berlin did not go according to plan: people bring flowers to the Russian tank
Our destroyed tanks were brought to European capitals from Ukraine. According to the plan of Kiev, they were supposed to remind of the defeats of the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But instead, in Berlin, people began to bring flowers to the tank.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2023 17:42 utc | 77
Posted by: Bima | Feb 25 2023 15:48 utc | 56
I suspect that interested readers will find more accurate, unbiased and up-to-date information at:
https://militarywatchmagazine.com
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Feb 25 2023 17:45 utc | 78
But often the conflict is described as 'existential for the Russians.' It certainly seems to be so for Ukrainians
Posted by: Scorpion | Feb 25 2023 16:26 utc | 64
Nonsense. If Ukraine stops killing its own population, then Ukraine won't stop to exist.
Posted by: Vikichka | Feb 25 2023 17:48 utc | 79
Sad and telling story about the guns. But old guns have far less immortal value than cultural, artistic, and architectural treasures that often see their end in war, and impossible to compare with human death, destruction, ecocide, and dislocation.
Posted by: Charles Peterson | Feb 25 2023 17:57 utc | 80
Posted by: Vikichka | Feb 25 2023 12:36 utc | 6
One must be careful with the numbers and wording ...
Doesn't really matter - both sides bear the damage to men/munitions and decoys in ratio to their firepower
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 25 2023 18:03 utc | 81
Feb 25 2023 16:58 utc | 71
rounds over shooting!
powder in bags for the 155mm and shells for the smalled caliber gets more energy as it ages....
the old powder/shells will not have the acceleration in the ballistic tables for the gun!
Posted by: paddy | Feb 25 2023 18:04 utc | 82
Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 25 2023 16:14 utc | 60
Fair point. I mention that I read that the dump has 20k ton equivalent TNT in it. That is equiv to Nagasaki .21 kiloton.
Now one post had 200k ,then revised down to 20k and saying both Hiroshima and Nagasaki added to 20 k. Now after reading this it says Nagasaki on its own was 21k . So the power is definitelythere. One Nagasaki there is enough to pollute Europe even if not with nuclear material. Who knows,maybe Russia does have secret nuke material there too? Dirty bomb
just waiting to happen? What if NATO tells Russia ,"Guess what,we placed dirty bombs in there as well with our commandos"? Russia will then be even more afraid to bomb it.
.I once worked with munitions plants and was always told that all were compartmentalized and designed to blow off the rooves
. Ie blow upwards to save the workers,but that was raw explosive ,not already in shaped charges in steel cannisters etc. Who knows?
It makes sense that Russia may have already emptied it over the last year or so. I would have, if I had noticed that chances of me getting there was less than the Natoists first.
.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Feb 25 2023 18:07 utc | 83
In a comment area of another site I sarcastically stated that if the Ukrainiam needed aircraft, we should gather up what we have hanging around in some museums like the Smithsonian and out in the deserts of the Southwest, clean them up, put them through a car wash and FedEx them overnight. I guess I wasn’t too far from the truth.
Posted by: Jose Garcia | Feb 25 2023 18:08 utc | 84
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Feb 25 2023 17:00 utc | 72
There's no point trying to predict any outcomes from way over here, or at least to predict and be certain about it. Ukraine started the war with an army 4x the size of the Russian one, so they still have lots of men to burn through. Most of the time they just shove rookies into defensive gaps and let them sit there getting pounded by artillery, so I doubt they're spending much ammo when they barely get to see the enemy in the first place. Russia may have a 7-1 artillery advantage but the real challenge is finding the artillery and then killing it.
Posted by: fogers | Feb 25 2023 18:08 utc | 85
Russia has worked on destroying leftover Cold War arms. Now starting to work on destroying leftovers from WWII. In the process, making work for the historians. “Dude, what was that artillery piece we just wrecked?” “ No idea bro, call in the frontline historians.” Not just beating NATO, beating the last couple wars too.
Posted by: Zed | Feb 25 2023 18:08 utc | 86
Posted by: Vikichka | Feb 25 2023 17:48 utc | 79
If Ukraine stops killing its own population, then Ukraine won't stop to exist.
Both assertions, Putin's and Zelensky's to this effect are essentially moot. Either way, Ukraine is finished and either way Russia will have to deal with a lasting intention on the part of the neocon-ruled West to destroy it.
Like I've repeated in months before:
This is the game for all the marbles. There's no turning back now. No peace treaties are possible even if they're wanted by both sides.
This is a civilisational arena: Two nations enter, only one leaves.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 25 2023 18:09 utc | 87
Posted by: Exile | Feb 25 2023 16:04 utc | 57
That’s not a bad turnout! And more than 650 000 have signed the petition.
Shatters the “we all stand with Ukraine” narrative. An articulated movement of dissent after the nord stream attacks and repeated “woops was that a nazi badge” moments might make things difficult in Berlin.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Feb 25 2023 18:10 utc | 88
@ Jörgen Hassler | Feb 25 2023 18:10 utc | 88 and exile - quote from intel slava https://t.me/s/intelslava
"Yesterday in Berlin, on the occasion of the anniversary of the start of the SMO, the authorities installed a Russian T-72B tank that had been shot down in Ukraine in front of the Russian embassy.
But the action did not go according to plan, and today local residents brought flowers to the tank. The Germans demand from their authorities to stop inciting war and promote a peaceful settlement."
Posted by: james | Feb 25 2023 18:16 utc | 89
a smidgen of truth creeps into legacy media - ABC, MSN, Newsweek, has a 'former' US Marine fighting in UKR telling ---
on the front-lines the life expectancy is only 4 hours
Feb: 23, 2023 LINK
An American fighting on the frontlines in Ukraine is warning that the battlefield in Bakhmut is gruesome.[.] Offenbecker, who is fighting in Ukraine's International Legion comprised of foreign soldiers, told ABC News that when a Ukrainian soldier fights on the frontlines in Bakhmut, their life expectancy is only around four hours.
"It's been pretty bad on the ground," he said. "A lot of casualties. The life expectancy is around four hours on the frontline."
WOW. That is a speedy demise. Not enough time to get acquainted with the scenery. So the number of UKR and mercs KIA is not overstated.
Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 25 2023 18:22 utc | 90
Occasionally, a poster here will point out that this war has a phony, almost scripted feel to it.
Are we experiencing the final phase of "creative destruction" in the latest capitalist cycle? The clearing out of obsolete inventory to be rebuilt with something faster and shinier? Not just the hardware, but social structures as well.
Ask your Davos representative for the answer.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 25 2023 18:28 utc | 91
Exile | Feb 25 2023 16:04 utc | 57
Anyone seen any sign of UK media coverage of anti war demo in London today?
Posted by: olaf22 | Feb 25 2023 18:34 utc | 92
Just to remind:
Official information of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine on the number of weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of January 1, 2022: 1970 tanks, 3575 armored personnel carriers, 2376 infantry fighting vehicles, 3182 artillery pieces, 488 combat aircraft, 102 attack helicopters, 215,000 personnel in combat units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Source: Boris Roshin 11.2.23
Another source from last year "European Land Forces Comparison" https://imgur.com/a/M0oLMaN claims even higher figures.
Posted by: aquadraht | Feb 25 2023 18:43 utc | 93
Doesn't really matter - both sides bear the damage to men/munitions and decoys in ratio to their firepower
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 25 2023 18:03 utc | 81
Please do enlighten me. How many decoys are in the numbers from b's article?
Posted by: Vikichka | Feb 25 2023 18:46 utc | 94
I don't disregard everything the "news" tells me.
If I hear it one time, I assume that it may or may not be true.
If I hear it 24/7, on every outlet, I know it is a lie.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Feb 25 2023 18:49 utc | 95
@ olaf22 | Feb 25 2023 18:34 utc | 92
more generally - nothing about this in canuck news, unless one relies on a wire service..
msm is presenting it like a smallish event - 10,000 people..
BERLIN, Feb 25 (Reuters) - A demonstration against supplying Ukraine with weapons for war with Russia attracted 10,000 people on Saturday, drawing criticism from top German government officials and a large police presence to maintain order.
or this more american version abc news..
German far left, far right expected at Ukraine peace rally
TodayBy The Associated Press. February 25, 2023, 2:54 AM. BERLIN -- A rally in Berlin calling for peace talks to end the war in Ukraine is expected to draw thousands of people from across the political ...
Posted by: james | Feb 25 2023 18:49 utc | 96
Of course relying on memory but I read that the life expectancy of a Ukrainian Starlink terminal operator was something like a week. The Russians recently figured out how to locate the terminals with of course some follow up missile/cannon fire.
Posted by: Erelis | Feb 25 2023 18:50 utc | 97
@ wagelaborer | Feb 25 2023 18:49 utc | 95
not a bad approach, lol..
Posted by: james | Feb 25 2023 18:50 utc | 98
Thanks for the compilation report, b. I'm reminded that a few weeks ago a political decision was made to prioritize killing Ukie artillery and eliminate the shelling of Civilian Donbas, which then of course became the military imperative. Ukie loses increased but the shelling has yet to be eliminated, the main reason being the FEBA remains too close. I've suggested that loitering drones be used more intensively to hunt Ukie artillery, but it seems that's one type of weapon Russia doesn't have in great numbers as their import has only been made known by this conflict.
It must be noted that the erection of second and third lines of defense require people to construct them, and as more get sent to the meat grinder, there are fewer available to create those lines. Further, killing the mechanized equipment used to make such defenses would be very helpful, something I don't see reported much at all. Drones should be dispatched to attack the construction of such works for obvious reasons. Helos firing from behind the FEBA ought to also have an affect on attritting such equipment and associated manpower so whatever gets erected is weak and easily defeated. Such efforts can help accelerate the slow advance as lesser Ukie numbers defending weaker defensive works makes for easier forward progress and the potential to establish momentum.
IMO, those efforts can help attain the political goal of eliminating the shelling of Civilian areas of Donbas.
Posted by: young | Feb 25 2023 15:18 utc | 44
"Now Ukraine is very hungry to get its hands on the stored ammo in Transnistria. So, I think they will go for it. Of course the Russians in Transnistria could blow the ammo dumps there. This would make the Transnistria target by Ukraine less attractive"
At least according to what we have been publicly told, it will be Unlikely that Ukraine will be able to use that ammunition; as it is considered very unstable(rusted,duds) but I guess that noone cares for Ukros' lives,right?
Unlikely Russia will be able to blow up the dump as it would be like blowing up another Nagasaki and Hiroshima again at a minimmum.
I really don't know what Russia will do if NATO invades Transnistria. We will see.
My Thoughts:
Several warnings/reactions possible. Perhaps, Belarus threatens to join fight on Russian side if Ukraine invades Transnistria. That would be another huge Front. Or China threatens to supply Russia with weapons if Ukraine invades Transnistria.
Bottom line? If I conceived of these warnings/reactions, than all participants have gamed these possibilities...as well as many more. Perhaps Ukraine bluffs Transnistria attack to block China from supplying weapons...or to prevent Belarus attack from North? It goes both ways.
Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | Feb 25 2023 18:57 utc | 100
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