May being one of the first comments here to the UKR-War subjects, I’d like to stand-up of every realistic opinion of “Step-For” or “Step-Back” on the current defence line round the global UKR. But want to verify all that what is heapponing there ..°

Posted by: spare_truth | Feb 28 2023 18:34 utc | 4

Mar man @1–
Yes, that reality is known by RoW’s political leaders because Russia has informed them along with the realities behind the Big Picture that includes the SMO. Together, that contributes to Russia’s role as the Bad Cop to China’s Good Cop. However, currently it ought to be clear that Russia’s integrity as a nation and civilization isn’t immediately threatened anymore than it was in December 2021. As for NATO being Russia’s foe, yes, but NATO is also the World’s foe, a fact that’s becoming very hard to deny. For NATO’s non-Russophobic EU component, that reality is making a difference as political resistance escalates. As it was last February when the SMO began, time is Russia’s ally along with Ukie military behavior of wasting its troops and material, which are now NATO’s troops and material. Crooke asks an excellent question, what will happen within NATO when the Outlaw US Empire’s withdrawal from Ukieland becomes undeniable? Will NATO continue or capitulate?

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 28 2023 19:06 utc | 6

Will just leave this here. https://www.jpost.com/international/article-732932
IF true – and as acknowledged by one of the alleged sources for the article – the conditions in Occupied Palestine are so terrible that they will sign up to go fight for Russia in Ukraine. Also, allegedly Hamas has joined in. I really don’t know what to make of that last part – I could see them wanting to weaken the US and train against western military tactics and equipment, but something just doesn’t seem right to me anytime Hamas’s name is invoked (ex. re: Venezuela).

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 28 2023 19:07 utc | 8

On one side we have NATO that needs a couple of years to ramp up weapons production and training of a really big military
On the other side we have Eurasia whose grand strategy is de-dollarization to bankrupt Washington. De-dollarization will also take a few years.
Conclusion = this global war will last many years. Plan accordingly.

Posted by: Exile | Feb 28 2023 19:11 utc | 10

Defense Politics Asia is reporting Bakmut is for all practical purposes encircled, and Ukraine troops either get out immediately, or be trapped and eliminated. I wonder how many civilians are in the town?
Posted by: Robert | Feb 28 2023 18:31 utc | 2
The last estimate I saw claimed, “Less than 5,000 civilians remain in Bakhmut.” Pre-war population was 71,000.

Posted by: Ramsey Glissadevil | Feb 28 2023 19:21 utc | 12

Nato puppet Stoltenberg said there’s no way back to a normal relationships with Moscow, even after the wars over. Nato has no intentions of extending the hand of friendship to Russia at all.
https://ria.ru/20230228/nato-1854884220.html

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 28 2023 19:39 utc | 14

Perimetr no. 3
And another one:
“Russia says military drone attempted to strike gas facility near Moscow
Wreckage suggests UAV was Ukrainian-made, marking rare attempted strike hundreds of miles behind Russian lines”

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Feb 28 2023 19:47 utc | 16

The USA could be about to organise a chemical attack and blame it on Russia.
The United States is planning a “false flag” operation in Ukraine using highly toxic and banned substances to blame it on Moscow, a Russian commander revealed on Tuesday.
Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, Commander of Russia’s Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Protection Troops, cited remarks by former US Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan claiming that Russian troops “plan to use chemical weapons in the area of the special military operation.”
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2023/02/28/699048/Russia-Military–America-preparing-for-chemical-attack-in-Ukraine
The statement was made last week at a conference held by a non-governmental American organization on the events of the Ukraine conflict.
“We regard this information as the intention of the US itself and its accomplices to conduct a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals,” said Kirillov.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 28 2023 19:51 utc | 18

Posté par: Republicofscotland | 28 févr. 2023 19:39 UTC | 15
It is clear that there will be no turning back for NATO-Russia relations for two main reasons:
The first is that Nato has no more mask and their level of diplomacy being only pressure, they will be confronted with a wall, which they already experience with China
Secondly, the war in Ukraine has seen the mutation in the eyes of the world of the West into there is no longer USA or Europe but there is NATO/US against the UK/China/Iran/Saudi Arabia in a commercial, financial and armed war!

Posted by: Fusible | Feb 28 2023 20:03 utc | 20

@ Republicofscotland | Feb 28 2023 19:51 utc | 19
Thanks. Numerous coverage in TG over last 24hrs, yet major publication in untranslated MOD report. Possible False Flag, War Crimes inbound, if so multiple deliberate outright breaches of OCW by USA Ukraine, both ratified signatories, minimum. Let us hope it is not going to be so.

Posted by: Outraged | Feb 28 2023 20:06 utc | 22

What is all this talk about red lines about? The Ukrainian army crossed the worst line when they tortured and killed Russian POW’s.
NATO crossed the red lines long ago. For Russia itself this is clear: read Medvedev’s Telegram and even careful Peskov is sure about it now. There is no going back, the knives are drawn. Certainly, escalation is still possible, but the fangs are bared and talking about red lines has become irrelevant. There still may be some small anomalies, like Russia delivering coal to Germany, but those happened in the second world war too (the US aiding Germany…), but the avalanche has started and the history of how it all ends possibly won’t be written by us. Russian military strategy remains cautious and mysterious, but Russian resolve is rather clear and solid. Western’s resolve is as thin as a Dollar bill but a small group of people want to keep using that bill as a magic carpet to fly high over the world even when that world is in flames. Sigh…

Posted by: Anthony | Feb 28 2023 20:09 utc | 24

Saw this surprising piece on Foreign Policy:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/28/the-conversation-about-ukraine-is-cracking-apart/
If I understand correctly, the author (1) attended the recent Munich conference, and (2) says that the camp he seems to belong to engages in double-speak.

Posted by: neutrino | Feb 28 2023 20:16 utc | 26

Sufficiently developed magic is indistinguishable from technology
https://t.me/ukraineneveragain/16791

Posted by: Arioch | Feb 28 2023 20:39 utc | 28

There goes the everyday supplies….
Blinken issues warning to China
The top US diplomat said Washington would “not hesitate” to target Chinese companies or individuals who violate its Russia sanctions
RT:

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has again warned China of “implications and consequences” should it contribute lethal aid to Russia in its conflict with Ukraine. The senior US diplomat made the comments in Kazakhstan on Tuesday as part of a tour of Central Asian nations.
Blinken is meeting representatives of several former Soviet republics this week, including from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
“We did very clearly warn China about the implications and consequences of going through with providing such support,” he said at a news conference in Astana, following meetings with Kazakh foreign minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

“We will not hesitate, for example, to target Chinese companies or individuals that violate our sanctions, or are otherwise engaged in supporting the Russian war effort,” he warned, adding that he’d discussed the issue “directly” with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi when they met at the Munich Security Conference earlier this month.[.]

What arrogance? Aside from being indebted, factories are shuttered due greed – they were offshored to China. Now China is Enemy No: 1
Does Biden/Blinken comprehend the consequences of poking a dragon with left hand and a bear with right hand simultaneously? China has a habit of pulling the rug from under: “oops we found another virus so we have to close our ports, can’t load or ship any containers.” For friendly countries no worries.
This article is highly recommended; a must read if you missed it.
The Ontological Incoherence of American Imperial Exceptionalism

by William Schryver: In targeting Russia, they have built the perfect beast – Russia, China and Iran.
Extracted:-
 [.]the empire’s seemingly endless string of hubris-driven blunders has rapidly accelerated the formation of what is quite arguably the single most potent military/economic/geostrategic alliance seen in modern times: the tripartite axis of Russia, China, and Iran.[.]
– the empire has astoundingly managed to jump from the frying pan of a regional proxy war against Russia into the fire of a global conflict all three of its steadily strengthening adversaries now view as existential.


In my considered opinion, this is almost certainly the single most inexplicable and portentous series of geopolitical blunders in recorded history.
[.]
http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2023/february/24/the-ontological-incoherence-of-american-imperial-exceptionalism/

Do not be surprised when the military alliance is formally announced.

Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 28 2023 20:47 utc | 30

Here are some interesting and unexplored angles:
https://johnmenadue.com/ukraine-is-it-almost-over/

Posted by: Paul GV | Feb 28 2023 21:05 utc | 32

Roger Annis replying to a correspondent who argued that both the US and Russia are imperialist powers
“..Firstly, the war in Ukraine is a defensive war by Russia. It has been forced upon Russia by the years and decades of NATO aggression and expansion and the plans put into motion in 2021 for a war of annihilation against the people of Donbass and, so NATO and Kyiv hoped, the people of Crimea.
“Secondly, NATO and Ukraine’s war effort is being waged under the flag of Ukrainian nationalism. This is a nationalism that has evolved over the past four decades into far-right nationalism, overlapping, even, with today’s neo-Nazism. There is nothing whatsoever progressive in it. It is an irrational ideology founded on hatred of Russia and all things Russian. It repudiates the heroic, 100-year multinational legacy of Soviet Ukraine. It has for decades sought military conflict against Russia and offered to serve as a proxy for Western imperialism, itself steeped in anti-Russia and anti-Soviet ideology and hatred.
“Thirdly, the email displays the loss by most of the Western left of the Leninist understanding of imperialism. Writer John Smith’s vital 2016 book discusses this phenomenon while affirming that imperialist dominance is very much alive in the 21st century: Imperialism in the Twenty-First Century: Globalization, Super-Exploitation and Capitalism’s Final Crisis (Monthly Review Press, 384 pages). Smith wrote a very valuable 2015 essay outlining his book and the reasons he wrote it, here.
“Another, newer, important addition to the Marxist literature on imperialism is Imperialism and the development myth: How rich countries dominate in the twenty-first century, by Australian social researcher Sam King (Manchester University Press, 2021 , 296 pages, with a forward by UK economist Michael Roberts).
“The author affirms in his introduction, “The huge gulf between rich and poor worlds is getting bigger not smaller. Under capitalist imperialism, it is permanent….”
https://socialistincanada.ca/russias-struggle-to-defend-its-sovereignty-and-resist-the-aggression-of-western-imperialism-and-right-wing-ukrainian-nationalism/
Yves Engler on the generosity of the Canadian people towards Ukraine:
“…According to a February 17 Le Devoir calculation, Canada has delivered $2.26 billion in weapons to Ukraine. The paper costed 17 different announcements, which include 4 heavy tanks, 4,200 single-use rocket launchers, an anti-aircraft missile system, 4 howitzers with 27,000 shells, 76 drone cameras, 247 armoured vehicles and more. On Friday the Liberals announced they were sending four more heavy tanks, an armoured recovery vehicle and more than 5,000 rounds of ammunition.
“Since World War II, this quantity of arms donations is unprecedented. The only example that may be comparable is the arms Canada transferred through NATO’s Mutual Aid Program in the decade after the alliance was created. Between 1950 and 1958 Ottawa donated $1.53 billion ($9 billion today) in ammunition, fighter jets, military training, etc. to European NATO countries.
“Through this program Canada armed France, Belgium and Britain as they violently suppressed independence struggles in Algeria, Congo, Kenya and elsewhere. In reference to France’s bid to suppress the Vietnamese independence movements, external affairs minister Lester Pearson told Parliament in 1953 that “the assistance we have given to France as a member of the NATO association may have helped her recently in the discharge of some of her obligations in Indo-China.” With 400,000 French troops in Algeria in 1956 Canada transferred hundreds of thousands of bullets to that country…”
https://yvesengler.com/2023/02/28/understanding-the-logic-of-canada-giving-2-26-billion-in-arms-to-ukraine/
This is about the 2004 “Orange Revolution.” Younger readers might be surprised to see how The Guardian has changed its tune since those days.
https://yvesengler.com/2022/03/19/revisiting-our-role-in-ukraines-2004-orange-revolution/

Posted by: bevin | Feb 28 2023 21:15 utc | 34

Barflies may be interested in the ASX listed Australian mining company European Lithium and their [extremely dubious] Ukrainian aspirations [Millstone deal]
 “UPDATE ON NASDAQ LISTING AND CHANGES TO UKRAINE TRANSACTION HIGHLIGHTS
Merger transaction and NASDAQ listing expected to complete in 2nd quarter 2023;
EUR and Millstone and Company Global DWC-LLC (Millstone) agree to vary acquisition terms;
Dobra and Shevchenkivske Projects are positioned to secure lithium for Europe; and
End date to complete acquisition extended to 2 November 2025”.
https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/EUR/02637768.pdf
https://europeanlithium.com

Posted by: Paul GV | Feb 28 2023 21:22 utc | 36

reply to 34
It’s a good read. It contains the best quote I’ve read in a while:
“the contortions that will be needed to explain Ukraine’s impending defeat will be something to behold”.
Profound !

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 28 2023 21:30 utc | 38

Likklemore | Feb 28 2023 20:47 utc | 32
One possible reason that the US is taking on Russia, China and Iran together, is not because they WANT to, but because they have to.
Money.
Russia is now using only those currencies of the Trio. Rouble, Yuan and Rial – No dollars, or Euros. Iran the same and China has been offloading as many dollars as it can.
Russia and Iran are off SWIFT and the Chinese have their own system.
One way of Russia “winning” this war is if the US can no longer use depleted-dollars as they have been doing. No money, no war.
**
It also make sense why there is still an SMO, the amount that CAN be spent is limited (It may have been raised somewhat. but there is no blank cheque), and the “ordinary life” of the Russians can continue. Meanwhile “back at the ranch”, they are still trying to find some chips and living off hot air.
****
There must be much more going on in Bakhmut than they want us to know. One very good Twitter source, (precise maps etc) has been suspended today => GeromanAT. Some will know him. Earlier good sources have also been suspended “Spriteer”, “Su-57”. So twitter is suppressing less – but it is being more selective.

Posted by: Stonebird | Feb 28 2023 21:40 utc | 40

Posted by: Stonebird | Feb 28 2023 21:40 utc |
Good insight.
“No money, no war” that will be the forthcoming narrative when they have to concede they are circling the bowl. It matters not who actually says it.
Suspension = suppression…..no matter who currently owns the platform.

Posted by: Digital Spartacus | Feb 28 2023 21:57 utc | 42

I live in Serbia.
Serbia is playing a very dirty game against Russia.
That has been going on for years.
Posted by: Srbin | Feb 28 2023 20:07 utc | 24
True but Russia’s dirty game and going along with NATO/west’s attacks on Serbia and Serbs helped its government fall and the western coup government become installed.
Russia was arming Croatia and the Bosnian Muslims during the 90’s wars. Croatia was supplied directly, while the Muslims were supplied indirectly through Slovenia (which was a major middleman for the Bosnian Muslims during the war.) Of course Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Czech Republic, Germany, Argentina, Iran, Yemen, UK, etc. were also supplying Croatia and/or Bosnian Muslims.
Russia also went along with the sanctions against Serbia as well as the set up and funding of Madeleine Albright’s court (it was her idea) the ICTY.
Russia didn’t even veto the bombing of the Bosnian Serbs in 1994 and 1995.
Then after the war, Russia wouldn’t help Serbia repair and rebuild from the NATO bombing, and Russia even threatened to cut off gas supplies in the run-up to elections between Milosevic and the DOS. Just a couple years later Russia forgave U.S. bombed and occupied Afghanistan (with a U.S. puppet government installed) several billions in debt, yet it never forgave Serbia any debt at all as far as I can find.
So Russia went along with the destruction of Serbia and Serbs and only became alarmed when NATO was bombing Serbia because it (and China) started thinking they would be next. Yet even after that they wouldn’t help Serbia recover from the NATO mauling. Russia left Serbia to twist in the wind and is responsible for the only people who strongly resisted NATO falling towards the west.
“If you can’t beat them, join them” is the old adage. Russia could have lent an hand but instead it mostly shoved (hurt Serbia much more than helped it) at NATO’s feet.

Posted by: MiniMo | Feb 28 2023 22:05 utc | 44

New York Times today:
Scrounging for Tanks for Ukraine, Europe’s Armies Come Up Short
The struggle to deliver on promises to provide Leopard 2 tanks for use against Russian forces has exposed just how unprepared European militaries are.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/28/world/europe/ukraine-tanks.html
So we, (stupid as we have been),Europeans are to blame

Posted by: Paul | Feb 28 2023 22:14 utc | 46

Posted by: Marawa | Feb 28 2023 22:10 utc | 47
Spare us, please.
Posted by: bevin | Feb 28 2023 22:19 utc | 49
Thanks for the link. I must have missed it when I checked in on Consortium News this morning.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 28 2023 22:25 utc | 48

Posted by: Stonebird | Feb 28 2023 22:28 utc | 52
Wasn’t meaning to criticize. I’ve been following “Spriter” around for years. And some others. Geroman is a recent addition. I think it gets a little competitive, news aggregator is a new kind of hobby.
I would say they are trying to show they (the droners) are not impotent, but same thing really.
Petersburg thing seems to have not been well thought out.

Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 28 2023 22:37 utc | 50

Posted by: Mar man | Feb 28 2023 18:21 utc |1
——————————————–
Since you are post #1, what the fuck are you talking about? What is your source? I just opened MoA and I am confronted with: “When Russia claims it is facing complete destruction and NATO is the enemy causing it, everyone in the world should take notice because that fulfills certain conditions in Russia’s nuclear doctrine.”
What did I miss? Could you be more specific please? After all you did lead off for this string, your comment should be based on something, an article, a news story, something. Did b write something, and I just didn’t see it? And who is Peskov? Questions, questions, questions…

Posted by: Ed | Feb 28 2023 22:54 utc | 52

Oldcutlas gets it !
Give them a shot of their choice
News flash: US based national enquirer is reporting that Russian sleeper cells are sabotaging targets inside USA.
A great time to be in a neutral country, if you can still get there…
Sakartvelo gomarjous !

Posted by: GoFast | Feb 28 2023 23:08 utc | 54

Posted by: Ed | Feb 28 2023 22:54 utc | 56
Ed, those are direct quotes easily searchable by any search engine.
First quote: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-russia-must-take-into-account-nato-nuclear-capability-state-tv-2023-02-26/
Second quote: https://www.rt.com/russia/572165-nato-war-russia-peskov/

Posted by: Mar man | Feb 28 2023 23:12 utc | 56

@ Karlof1 and @ Stonebird 41
My pleasure, thanks for your reply.
But the reality is even worse
If I may, looking out to the next 3 years (in the blink of an eye) worse is now dire.
Consider, as I hinted in another thread, this will be an interesting year. In the next 60 days the BRICS Committee concludes discussion on the criteria for countries to join. Under discussion is the Saudi Arabia and Iran memberships, both applications are supported by Russia and China.
Likely in terms of membership expansion BRICS then becomes BRIICSS+++, Huuuuge – a giant economic/political shift.
There are twenty (20) countries seeking membership. [among the 20: Algeria, Turkiye, Bahrain, Mexico, Egypt, Argentina, Uruguay] .
After the heist of RF’s foreign reserves, de-dollarization has accelerated with countries seeking safe harbour in BRICS EAEU ports.
http://infobrics.org/post/37828/
and some serious stuff in the making
Breaking News headlines at the BRICS Portal:
http://infobrics.org/
Few recognize the USD death certificate was signed by KSA Finance Minister on January 18, 2023.
Place: Davos, Switzerland
Cause of Death: Arrogance
Year 2025 US debt is projected to hit $50 trillion, easy to do the maths. Mark 2027 for the collapse.
A few in D.C. will be birthing elephants.

Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 28 2023 23:17 utc | 58

Garland Nixon had a 1-hour 18-minute long video with Scott Ritter and Andrei Martyanov. I’m posting just to irritate the Andrei haters, of course.
THE UKRAINE CRISIS – WITH SCOTT RITTER AND ANDREI MARTYANOV
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zY7iPCUMGI8
Also Andrei’s latest:
China, Rostec And SMO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_V9Oa14jXVI

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Feb 28 2023 23:32 utc | 60

Re: Posted by: Ed | Feb 28 2023 22:54 utc | 56

And who is Peskov? Questions, questions, questions…

Do you seriously not know who Peskov is? I think you should be doing some reading rather than commenting Editor.

Posted by: Julian | Feb 28 2023 23:48 utc | 62

Likklemore @62–
Thanks for your reply. The steamroller of global development in a manner that leaves the dollar behind is inexorable. The parasite has killed its host but neither are yet aware of that fact. Neoliberals and Neocons will wail at the downfall they caused and seek to blame anything/anybody but themselves. When they try to perform the Bail-in, IMO that’s when the public will finally erupt. Are there any wise heads within the Elite capable of reading the tea leaves and willing to work to avoid that disaster? IMO, the 2024 election will be the future make or breaker, but it’s also possible the hole’s too deep to be filled by all those deserving to be poured into it to salvage the current system. What will be determined to be the Outlaw US Empire’s Stalingrad, its Waterloo? I don’t have an empirical answer to that question yet, but I do have an inkling I’ll share sometime.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 28 2023 23:59 utc | 64

ED @56–
Peskov is the Kremlin’s spokesman going on ten years I believe.
Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 28 2023 23:11 utc | 59
—————-
Fair enough karlpf1, and Mar man @ 60, perhaps I should have known that, but, but, but….
I think you assume too much about what readers and commentors on MoA know, don’t know, or don’t remember. And since as you say the “quotes are easily searchable by any search engine,” it is best that you post them yourself, since it is your comment after all, don’t you think?
It is just like copying and pasting the names and post numbers of a poster that you are commenting about, it is a common courtesy. Lot of people don’t do it (?), and a lot of people just forget to do it, but everyone should.

Posted by: Ed | Mar 1 2023 0:08 utc | 66

“The U.S. Treasury expects to borrow $932 billion in the first quarter, higher than the October estimate of $353 billion due to a lower cash balance at the beginning of January and projections of lower receipts and higher outlays for the period.” ZH
So the U.S. now has to borrow nearly $1 Trillion for the first 3 months of this fiscal year. At this rate, they will need to borrow $4 Trillion for the year.
Europe is broke, UK is broke, Canada is broke, the USA is broke. All the U.S. Treasury/Bond auctions are getting fewer and fewer bidders. And they’ve snorted enough coke to think they can defeat Russia on Russia’s doorstep.
Sounds a whole lot like some yappy punk kid after too much drinky-poo, just before pukey-poo.

Posted by: kupkee | Mar 1 2023 0:16 utc | 68

Wreckage suggests UAV was Ukrainian-made, marking rare attempted strike hundreds of miles behind Russian lines”
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Feb 28 2023 19:47 utc | 17

Rare up till now.
They have been supplied with thousands of long-range drones, and these are the first probing attacks. RU did some strikes on storage and launch facilities a month ago, but it was clearly not sufficient.
Expect future massive waves of drones to be sent all over the mainland Russian territory.
You can also fully expect the Kremlin to pretend that it is not happening, as it has until now, until that becomes impossible.

There was apparently a large Hack of the security system in Russia this afternoon, or a real drone flying over St. Petersburg. Plus other long-distance drones were seen earlier.

The reports are that it was a real drone and that it flew from the Gulf of Finland. What does that mean?
If true, that is actually a huge deal — it means that was either an actual NATO drone, or that it was sent to Russia through NATO airspace (and it is a big drone, impossible to hide from radars, so it is not as if UA launched it through Poland and Poland didn’t know).
Also, just a few hours ago we have this:
https://t.me/rybar/44094

❗️🇬🇧🇺🇦 On the activity of NATO reconnaissance in the Black Sea and new strikes against Russian targets
Quite interesting activity is observed in the Black Sea zone against the backdrop of Ukrainian drone raids on various targets on Russian territory – several aircraft of the US Air Force and the combined air force were simultaneously operating in the central part of the Black Sea NATO.
🔻What planes were seen on February 28?
➖American drone RQ-4B
➖British RC-135s escorted by two Typhoon tactical aircraft
➖French long-range radar control aircraft (DRLO) E-3F
➖Italian aircraft AWACS G-550
🔻Why is it important?
All of the above aircraft regularly fly to the Black Sea area. However, before that they did not work simultaneously in the same area south of the Crimea (except for the G-550, which was located in the east of Romania) .
And escorting the RC-135 with a pair of Typhoons right up to the central part of the World Cup is a rare event in itself and may be associated with working out the cover of a strategic aircraft from conditional enemy strikes – in this case, the aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
Moreover, a curious trend is noted with the French E-3F: after each of its work in the Black Sea zone, Ukrainian UAVs raid the Crimea.
🔻What should be expected?
Given today’s attempts to strike various targets in Russia, flights of such a variety of reconnaissance equipment south of the Crimean peninsula and off the coast of Romania confirm preparations for the next launch of Ukrainian drones.
At the same time, the American RQ-4B UAV is still in the Black Sea airspace. And according to statistics, Ukrainian formations most often strike between 20.00 and midnight and from 4 to 8 in the morning.
In Yeysk, a few hours ago, there was already an explosion at the airfield. According to preliminary data, a Tu-141 Strizh reactive UAV was struck. There was a hit on the territory of the base, but none of the aircraft was hit.
However, this attack is unlikely to be the only one. With a high degree of probability, attempts will continue.

If it had been established after the sinking of the Moskva that all RQ-4Bs approaching Crimea will be shot down, as RU was fully in its right to do, we would not be in this situation. But here we are.
What comes next is the following:
1) There will be massive drone strikes against sensitive objects in Central and Western Russia (and perhaps even in the Far East).
2) The Kremlin will then have to either respond decisively or pretend it is not happening.
3) If it chooses the latter, critical infrastructure and military objects will begin to be gradually destroyed, preparing the ground for an eventual nuclear first strike or massive conventional decapitation strike. There are redundancies in the strategic forces and their early warning and detection systems, but they are not endless, so real damage can be done eventually if this is allowed to continue
4) If it chooses to react, it will have to escalate massively, and at this point it is not clear what kind of escalation would make NATO stop. Ukraine is fully captured to such an extent that it is not clear whether even nuking some Ukrainian city will make them stop launching kamikaze drones into Russia. The fanatics are that crazy and the rest of Ukrainian society is that powerless.
So it might be that there is no meaningful escalation short of attacking NATO forces directly (rather than their drones).
I wonder who could have seen this coming…
If only some people were screaming for a whole year that the war had to be won decisively as quickly as possible and that creeping escalation must not be allowed because where it inevitably leads to is having to make the choice between surrendering or pressing the red button…

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 1 2023 0:25 utc | 70

Big news of today…drone attacks deep into Russia. Looks like russias tiger got a bigger tail. Probably a good signal for an escalation, probably some sort of Chinese enhanced one.
A formal war declaration by russia is soon to be in the works unless I miss my guess.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 1 2023 0:34 utc | 72

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 1 2023 0:19 utc | 73

Posted by: Ed | Mar 1 2023 0:08 utc | 70
The issue of prior knowledge is always present and is often a challenge–how much underlying context is required for a general comment is common, particularly when there’s no article to provide topical context as with this thread.

Thanks for that reply. But some MoAs still have to keep this notice (so I did before) before get the drones flying towards Poland borders +/- 550 m, like the NATO-AWACS round the clock, starting from Rumania gov. & private US-lead guys …
So pls. understand, what Ed has said above @70 … Thanks.

Posted by: spare_truth | Mar 1 2023 0:37 utc | 74

Second quote: https://www.rt.com/russia/572165-nato-war-russia-peskov/
Posted by: Mar man | Feb 28 2023 23:12 utc | 60
—————————————-
Mar man, I had not read the RT article, though I usually stroll through RT every day, but not today. And yes, I do know who Dmitry Peskov is, I just had a brain fart and couldn’t place the name with a face, at 70 it happens more than I would like to admit.
Also, I probably never would have read the Reuters piece. And yes, it is all very disturbing. Thanks for both articles, there is a lot to think about. Frankly, Mar man, your lead off comment shook me up a bit. It didn’t sound like something President Putin would say. It almost sounded defeatist.

Posted by: Ed | Mar 1 2023 0:40 utc | 76

@
[…]
What will be determined to be the Outlaw US Empire’s Stalingrad, its Waterloo? I don’t have an empirical answer to that question yet, but I do have an inkling I’ll share sometime.
Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 28 2023 23:59 utc | 68
Odessa is the cherry and Crimea the prime piece of real estate; long been coveted by USN/NATO and remains a target.
They were getting ready. Why this? Notice the dates.
https://govtribe.com/opportunity/federal-contract-opportunity/renovation-of-sevastopol-school-5-ukraine-n3319113r1240-1

Summary 
Federal Contract Opportunity for Renovation of Sevastopol School #5, Ukraine N33191-13-R-1240. The NAICS Category is 236220 – Commercial and Institutional Building Construction. Posted Aug 20, 2013. Posted by the Naval Facilities Engineering Command (DOD – Navy). The work will be performed at Sevastopol 99000[.}

Tender request cancelled April 2014.
https://en.topwar.ru/44990-zachem-vms-ssha-sobiralis-remontirovat-shkolu-v-sevastopole.html
A school eh?
So, when the fat Lady Odessa sings. I am buying a ticket to the concert. Certainly, on the program with Moscow Philharmonic – the full Orchestra performing –
Mozart Requiem
Mozart Mass, C minor
Beethoven Wellington’s Victory – The Battle of Victoria, Op 91 Updated -The Coup of Kiev 2014.

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 1 2023 0:49 utc | 78

Ukraine’s army has a big Nazi problem, ex-US soldier tells RT:
https://www.rt.com/russia/572220-ukaine-nazi-problem-us-soldier/
The truth is coming out…

Posted by: Nate | Mar 1 2023 0:57 utc | 80

@77 eighthman
Not South Africa unh unh. They are in the BRICS+ the S is South Africa. They will be able to get most of what theyneed from the others.

Posted by: sane | Mar 1 2023 1:05 utc | 82

Here is some homework for fellow barflies.
Does this look like damage to you? I see a plane that looks intact, with the “dark spot” possibly snow melt, not damage. NY Times report on the alleged drone attack in Belarus:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/28/world/europe/russian-plane-belarus-damage.html

Posted by: Chris | Mar 1 2023 1:16 utc | 84

Marawa is posting under several different nicks (such as “Spare us, please”) which is not supposed to be allowed here.

Posted by: MiniMo | Mar 1 2023 1:24 utc | 86

Posted by: Nate | Mar 1 2023 0:57 utc | 84
Way Back Machine
https://web.archive.org/web/20230301012646/https://www.rt.com/russia/572220-ukaine-nazi-problem-us-soldier/

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Mar 1 2023 1:35 utc | 88

Putin made his speech last week, and the Kremlin summoned the US Ambassador to answer for Nordstream and arming Ukraine. This morning we saw America’s answer: the drone swarm attack on Russia’s oil industry says.
Medvedev made another warning about the nuclear ending to all this.
At some point in the relatively near future I will not be surprised to see Russia, China, and Iran put their heads together and come up with a way to put the rabid dog down.

Posted by: Rhinoskerous | Mar 1 2023 1:44 utc | 90

Minimo (45): You’re partly right but missing the larger point about the NATO intervention in Serbia and Russia’s acquiescence. No UN Security Council vote was taken to justify the NATO bombing of Serbia during the Kosovo war because of the inevitable Russian veto, and Russia’s attempts to actually prevent the bombing were defeated in the UNSC. (The earlier Bosnian secession was a little different since all of Yugoslavia was breaking up at that point.) But in the 1990s Russia, led by the turncoat Yeltsin, was itself reeling economically and militarily and in little position to take on the then-powerful NATO. But the Russia of today would never have let Serbia twist in the wind like that … and after Ukraine collapses, I don’t think NATO would ever dare challenge a Russian-backed Serbia again.

Posted by: FHTEX | Mar 1 2023 1:55 utc | 92

Posted by: MiniMo | Feb 28 2023 22:05 utc | 45
———————————–
MiniMo, aren’t you casting your anger at the wrong place concerning Serbia and Bosnia? I think you beef is with the US/NATO, and the cowards at the UN. What could Russia have done? Nothing! Russia was on its back foot, militarily, economically, and politically. Why waste time attacking Russia? You might as well attack Cuba for not attacking the US over the US/NATO war against the national sovereignty of Serbia and Kosovo.

Posted by: Ed | Mar 1 2023 2:25 utc | 94

Re: Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 1 2023 0:25 utc | 74

The reports are that it was a real drone and that it flew from the Gulf of Finland. What does that mean?
If true, that is actually a huge deal — it means that was either an actual NATO drone, or that it was sent to Russia through NATO airspace (and it is a big drone, impossible to hide from radars, so it is not as if UA launched it through Poland and Poland didn’t know).

Coming from the Gulf of Finland does not necessarily mean it came from (or over) NATO territory.
Finland IS NOT a part of NATO.
&
Sweden IS NOT a part of NATO.
They are in a similar situation to Ukraine as potential future members of NATO – but not on the inside yet.
They would be logical countries to use to goad Russia – will Russia respond or do nothing?

Posted by: Julian | Mar 1 2023 2:32 utc | 96

@74 shdowbanned
You might as well have used the time to write that drivel and took a shower or vacuumed mom’s carpeting. This was soooo stupid and completely useless. NONE of this is ever going to happen lol.
Posted by: sane | Mar 1 2023 1:01 utc | 85

You have no idea what you are talking about.
During the Cold War era very thick volumes were written on nuclear strategy. It is an extensive field (understandably) with a lot of theory worked out.
Usually it gets presented as the cartoonish MAD doctrine, and that’s where the discussion ends. But in reality that is just the very surface.
One of the less advertised areas is the realization that if there is a state of MAD between superpowers, it does not necessarily mean that there is no way for one of them to defeat the other. It can be done through a proxy, and that proxy can be conventional. All that is needed is for that proxy to be of such a nature that it cannot simply be wiped off the face of the planet with nukes while being sufficiently strong to deal severe damage to the superpower.
Vietnam and Afghanistan were kind of like that, but, while the US did bankrupt itself over Vietnam and should have lost the Cold War, in the end it didn’t, and the USSR didn’t collapse because of Afghanistan either (contrary to the myths out there), it happened for other reasons.
Ultimately those proxies did not meet the requirements.
But then the USSR collapsed, the balance of power was disrupted, and the US embarked on a quest to finish off the remainder Russia.
To that purpose Ukraine started being prepared from the very moment it became independent. They sent many of the Bandera Nazis that had been in exile in the US and Canada back to Lvov, and started pumping Ukrainian nationalism with money and other resources. But Ukraine was still mostly Russian so it took years for the cancer thus implanted to metastasize sufficiently.
Meanwhile they tried to deal a mortal blow to Russia through Chechnya. The idea was that if Chechnya managed to become de facto independent and stay independent for sufficiently long, that would trigger a chain reaction of all the other ethnic republics (and even predominantly Russian far flung regions) launching their own separatist movements, eventually destroying Russia.
It didn’t work out for three reasons:
1) Ichkeria/Chechnya was de facto independent for only three years
2) It was dominated by Muslim fundamentalists engaged in savage terrorism against innocent civilians, which made it both hard to overtly support it and hard for it to attract much sympathy
3) Eventually Putin dropped the hammer, leveled Grozny, and firmly put an end to it, which he could do because of #2 above and also because the Chechens are not Russians, so there was sufficient detachment for such brutality to be applied.
Ukraine is very different:
1) It is big enough to actually throw serious punches militarily against Russia
2) It was nominally independent and the typical ignorant Westerner, who knows nothing about history, thinks the difference between Ukrainians and Russians is the same as that between e.g. the French and the Vietnamese
3) Because of #2, it is possible for it to be overtly supported, and to also impose sanctions
4) Because Ukrainians are Russians, though deeply brainwashed, Russia’s hands are tied in terms of what weapons and tactics can be used.
If it had been e.g. Poland doing the things Ukraine has done so far, there would literally be no Poland now — there would be smoldering ruins crawling with Russian and Belarussian hazmat teams, whose job would be to secure the territory and make sure radiation levels have dropped sufficiently for the large-scale clean up to begin. But it is Ukraine, which holds so much sentimental value to Russians that they will never do that there.
So the West has found the weak spot and is exploiting it fully now.
Which doesn’t mean nothing could have been done to stop it, but Putin’s indecisiveness in not putting an end to the creeping escalation early on has gotten us into the current situation.
I will repeat myself once again — most pro-RU people in the West and in the alternative online commentariat are pro-RU because they see in Russia the potential fulfillment of their ideological fantasies. Primarily it is alt-right types seeing in Putin the savior of traditional conservative values and the white race. Some of it is actual tankies who still don’t understand what modern Russia is (BTW, last February and March it was common to see Soviet flags on Russian tanks; no longer — looks like there has been a crackdown on the practice, and that is telling). Very few are those who look rationally and objectively at the situation. And that creates an echo chamber with some serious blind spots.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Mar 1 2023 2:44 utc | 98

You can blame Winston Churchill if you like, but both my Grandad, and my Dad, volunteered – as quick as they could….
Since then, well they haven’t been that bad….We got Free Healthcare and Free School Milk…we had to pay for our school dinners, and to the chippy opposite for a 1d Special (pence) ..which was just a large slice of potato covered in batter cooked in beef fat…
We used to fight a bit, even I was pretty fit (slight muscular problem myatonia congenita) They knocked me down – and all the kids came round and gathered in a circle – there is a fight in the school playground.
He says come on – Get Up and Fight – and so I Did….My Muscles were getting warmed up now….In the school playground, if you don’t stand up to The Bully….and Fight Back, you will have no respect from any of the kids…but if you fight back…and you know you are going to get splattered..you make a lot of 5 year old friends very quickly. You actually form teams when you are 5 years old…maybe a little bit tribal, but basically in self defence…from the bullies.
Other than that, I don’t think much has changed…It seems neither my Children nor Grandchildren, have ever been in a fight – more than a playfight..They haven’t come home with bruises, though one of their friends did – and they looked after her brilliantly – they said you will be OK – our Mum is a registered Childminder _ You Will Be Safe
Kids look after their friends, and take them to a place of sanctuary where they feel safe. When she felt safe, she phoned the police – or she would have been a runaway. The police and social services were brilliant. She came back to thank us a year later, and got back with her mum, and then a job in a beauty salon. She was fostered for a year. We were just the first step, when our kids brought her home.
You do your wars if you want – You disgust me.
Children Come First
Tony

Posted by: tonyopmoc | Mar 1 2023 3:40 utc | 100