What is Russia waiting for?

It seems to me that everything is in place for a massive offensive, why is Russia waiting? Are they planning a long war to drain the west or is there some other reason for the delay?

Posted by: team10tim | Feb 27 2023 16:12 utc | 1

heavier than normal troop losses for Ukriane:
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (27 February 2023)

Part I (see Part II)

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.

◽In Kupyansk direction, the 'Zapad' Group of Forces inflicted fire on enemy manpower and hardware in the areas of Novosyolovskoye (Lugansk People's Republic), Dvurechnaya, Gryanikovka, Masyutovka, Olshana, Liman Pervy, and Sinkovka (Kharkov region).

💥More than 70 Ukrainian servicemen, three armoured fighting vehicles, and two motor vehicles have been eliminated in this diretion during the day.

◽In Krasny Liman direction, the 'Tsentr' Group of Forces, Operational-Tactical Aviation, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems hit AFU units close to Yampolovka and Torskoye (Donetsk People's Republic), Chervonopopovka and Chyrvonova Dibrova (Lugansk People's Republic).

💥The enemy's losses for the day have amounted to around 140 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, three armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, a Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer, and a D-20 howitzer.

◽In Donetsk direction, as a result of the offensive by the 'Yug' Group of Forces, supported by air strikes, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems, over 250 Ukrainian servicemen, two tanks, four armoured fighting vehicles, five motor vehicles, and a D-20 howitzer have been destroyed in the past 24 hours.

💥An ammunition depot of the 72nd Mechanised Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been hit close to Artyomovsk (Donetsk People's Republic).

💥A US-made AN/TPQ-37 counterbattery radar station was destroyed near Novomarkovo (Donetsk People's Republic).

◽In South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, the 'Vostok' Group of Forces inflicted a complex fire damage on AFU units close to Ugledar, Nikolskoye, Prechistovka (Donetsk People's Republic) and Zeleny Gai (Zaporozhye region).

💥The enemy's losses in these directions during the day amounted to 95 Ukrainian servicemen, one tank, three armoured fighting vehicles, a motor vehicle, three pickups, and a D-20 howitzer.

💥An ammunition depot was annihilated close to Chernovoye (Zaporozhye region).

◽In Kherson direction, up to 60 Ukrainian servicemen, four motor vehicles, and two D-30 howitzers have been neutralised destroyed by fire.

💥Moreover, an ammunition depot of the 63rd Mechanised Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was destroyed close to Snigiryovka (Nikolayev region).

#MoD #Russia #Ukraine #report
@mod_russia_en
8.6K views
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⚡️Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation
(27 February 2023)

Part II (see Part I)

💥Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised 98 AFU artillery units at their firing positions, enemy manpower and hardware in 173 areas during the day.

💥The AFU's electronic intelligence centre close to Brovary (Kiev region) has been hit.

◽The 'West' SOF Centre was hit near Khmelnitsky.

◽Moreover, a Ukrainian Buk-M1self-propelled surface-to-air missile launcher was destroyed close to Andreevka and a 36D6 detection radar was obliterated near Dobropolye (Donetsk People's Republic).

💥Four HIMARS MLRS shells have been shot down by air defence forces during the day.

💥In addition, five Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed in the areas of Kremennaya and Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People's Republic), Kremenets, Novoandreevka (Donetsk People's Republic) and Krynki (Kherson region).

📊In total, 390 airplanes and 211 helicopters, 3,248 unmanned aerial vehicles, 406 air defence missile systems, 8,058 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,045 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 4,228 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 8,574 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Posted by: ctiger | Feb 27 2023 16:30 utc | 2

Translated from 'Interception (Z)' (TG)

It is reported that units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine came under heavy shelling in the area of ​​Bogdanovka and Grigorovka, 15 km west of Artyomovsk (Bakhmut).

Over the past few days, reserves and surviving units of the Ukrainian army have accumulated there, having managed to leave Berkhovka and Yagodnoye. According to the Military Chronicle, artillery of the RF Armed Forces and special-powered guns - the Pion 207 mm caliber and the Tulip 240 mm caliber - are actively working against the enemy.

240mm 'Tulip' mortar shells are capable of penetrating ~3m of reinforced concrete(IIRC). Ouch.

@ team10tim | Feb 27 2023 16:12 utc | 1

Ah, youngins these days, so demanding, so impatient, so me me me, now! Perhaps read, you know, actually read, even merely a tee-nee tiny portion of the content on this site, MoA, starting with b's articles ? Hm ? Suppose not ...

Posted by: Outraged | Feb 27 2023 16:31 utc | 3

As I understand:

1. The post-Maidan regime in Ukraine took out a loan from the International Monetary Fund.

2. The IMF, a part of the United Nations but with special voting rules, has always been dominated by the United States.
(Some years ago, they changed the rules so the three-way combination of France, Germany and Great Britain, all together, can now veto the previous U.S. dictator vote at the IMF. No other country has a vote that matters.)

3. One of the conditions of Ukraine’s IMF loan was that Ukraine re-conquer the breakaway Donbass republics, which had a lot of Ukraine’s heavy industry -- important for generating revenue to repay the IMF loan.

(to be continued)

Posted by: John Schmeeckle | Feb 27 2023 16:42 utc | 4

Against the backdrop of reports that the West has turned Ukraine into a testing ground for new types of weapons and equipment, an article by BreakingDefense is noteworthy “What Pentagon leaders say they learned from a year of fighting in Ukraine.”

Two majors have prepared for you a synopsis of the foreign edition.

On land: tank warfare, supplies.
▪️The Year of Ground Combat provided an opportunity to explore the complexities of large-scale ground combat using modern weapons.

▪️The tank is still relevant, but now the US Army is studying its potential vulnerabilities (“it’s direct fire tank against tank or attack from above with anti-tank guided missiles [or] artillery ammunition with sensor fuses”, as well as means of protection against them.

▪️US Army leaders are trying to find ways to replenish their dwindling stocks of weapons that were used to support Kyiv. Part of this effort has been making new agreements with industry and finding ways to strengthen the supply chain.

▪️ Separately, the article emphasizes protection against drones.

In space: the criticality of the field, the importance of proliferation: the war in Ukraine highlighted the central role of space assets in winning the war.

▪️The Americans are already drawing a number of conclusions from the use of satellites in the Ukrainian theatre. These include the fact that it is easy for an adversary to disable a single satellite, but sprawling systems, such as SpaceX's thousands of Starlink internet satellites, are much more resilient to attack.

▪️ Ground-based spacecraft systems are vulnerable to cyber attacks. Viasat's communications network in Ukraine was hit by a cyberattack early in the conflict, and attempts to hack Starlink were made, but with less effect. The Russians also regularly jam GPS signals in the region.

▪️Commercial satellites play a huge role - both for communications and for remote sensing for reconnaissance, surveillance and reconnaissance.

▪️Commercial remote sensing satellites, including those operated by Maxar, Planet, Capella and BlackSky, have contributed to the war images of the devastation have been instrumental in public support for Ukraine as well as providing intelligence to the Kiev government due to military satellite secrecy restrictions USA

In the air: superiority or defeat
▪️Among the many surprising failures of the Russian military at the start of their invasion was the inability of the Russian Air Force to control the skies, the kind of air supremacy around which much of US military strategy revolves. Despite the fact that the Russian military has a much larger force in the air, a year later, the Russian military does not appear to have come close to air supremacy, even as they struggle to make up for losses in their air force.

▪️US Air Force Chief of Staff General Brown stressed that for 20 years the US has been fighting relatively ill-equipped adversaries who “did not have air force or air defense capabilities, and these are the capabilities that the air force will have to deal with in the future.”

▪️Russian failures should teach the US and its allies to “pay special attention” to the destruction of mobile air defense systems. They need to better integrate cyber operations to help disrupt enemy defenses, as well as understand the importance of counter-UAV strategies, as it has become clear that “relatively inexpensive UAVs allow belligerents to deploy large fleets of aircraft, fight for air superiority and deliver precision strikes.”

Online: the value of zero trust, information sharing and spectrum
▪️Russian attacks on military and civilian targets “highlighted how important it is to have interagency and intergovernmental ties”

▪️Another “growing” area is operations in the electromagnetic spectrum. The conflict in Ukraine has highlighted the need for additional investment and work with the military on doctrine.

Posted by: Down South | Feb 27 2023 16:47 utc | 5

(continued from post #4)

4. (several middle-of-the-story details, to be added later)

5. President Zelensky publicly pledges in 2020 to keep all of Ukraine's promises to the IMF.

6. Zelensky (who campaigned for President on a promise to make swift peace in the Donbass) starts building up to attack, precipitating the Russian invasion.

Posted by: John Schmeeckle | Feb 27 2023 16:52 utc | 6

"Ukraine has concentrated forces near the border with Transnistria," said the press secretary of the Ukrainian Defense Forces "South," Natalia Gumenyuk.

According to her, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are concentrated on this section of the border in accordance with "the threat that is hypothetically possible from Russia."
@epoddubny

Posted by: Down South | Feb 27 2023 16:52 utc | 7

@team10tim | Feb 27 2023 16:12 utc | 1

It seems to me that everything is in place for a massive offensive, why is Russia waiting?

When is the US massive offensive coming on Taiwan?

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 27 2023 16:54 utc | 8

I'm poking around trying to learn if the Russian A-50 AWACS aircraft was actually struck or damaged by "saboteurs". It's hard to find anything definitive. There is speculation this a carefully crafted "western" (US) effort to enlarge the scope of the conflict.

What I find interesting is China coming out with their position paper a few days *before* this happened that basically states the US is a constant malicious troublemaker and basically no damn good.

It's very possible that China just raised the stakes.

Posted by: chunga | Feb 27 2023 16:57 utc | 9

To all those dumb fools who still doubt those videos of dead bodies from PMC WAGNER - are Ukranian soldiers. Ask yourself 1 question, have you ever witnessed evidence prior of Ukys shipping dead soldiers in coffins? that show respect for POW's, or dead bodies? please when you find clear and proper evidence do enlighten all of us.

Posted by: crazycanuck | Feb 27 2023 17:05 utc | 10

Posted by: team10tim | Feb 27 2023 16:12 utc | 1

What is Russia waiting for?

They're waiting for the enemy to stop predicting an offensive ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 27 2023 17:06 utc | 11

@ Outraged | Feb 27 2023 16:31 utc | 3

right on! thanks!

Posted by: james | Feb 27 2023 17:18 utc | 12

@crazycanuck | Feb 27 2023 17:05 utc | 10

To all those dumb fools who still doubt those videos of dead bodies from PMC WAGNER - are Ukranian soldiers. Ask yourself 1 question, have you ever witnessed evidence prior of Ukys shipping dead soldiers in coffins? that show respect for POW's, or dead bodies? please when you find clear and proper evidence do enlighten all of us.

P.S. "Wagner" is sending the bodies to Ukraine so Ukraine can't deny that someone is missing and not paying the family of the "missing soldier" compensation...

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 27 2023 17:19 utc | 13

@ John Schmeeckle | Feb 27 2023 16:42 utc | 4

that is exactly right.. please continue anytime!

Posted by: james | Feb 27 2023 17:19 utc | 14

Physics is greater than the sum total of all the parts. The 'big offensive' is in full swing....along the entire line of contact, demilitarization and denazifcation moves forward, with the tacit help of the Ukie political leadership. Always best to have a politician lead one's army, even if they are a comic.

Recently a friend told me how well the Ukies were doing......I didn't have the heart to burst his bubble.....yes, Russians were dying, but how many Ukrainians are dying?

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 27 2023 17:25 utc | 15

IDN about that ammo dump in Transnistria, Looking at satellite img of it. It looks about half way decommissioned to me. Many empty bunkers where concrete storage buildings once stood. Some concrete warehouses partially demolished. When an ammo dump in my state was decommissioned it looked similar.
Old expired ammo and powder charges really are not very usable. it is unstable and does not ignite like fresh ammo making artillery inaccurate.
The whole thing could be just another Russian ruse. To fool the desperate Ukrainians to draw troops from where they are needed.

Posted by: Golddiggr | Feb 27 2023 17:29 utc | 16

Posted by: Outraged | Feb 27 2023 16:31 utc | 3

They also fire a laser guided bomb, the 125kg Smel’chak (daredevil), that proved devastating to Afghan mountain fortifications and bunkers in the 2nd Chechen war.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 27 2023 17:31 utc | 17

I'm poking around trying to learn if the Russian A-50 AWACS aircraft was actually struck or damaged by "saboteurs". It's hard to find anything definitive. There is speculation this a carefully crafted "western" (US) effort to enlarge the scope of the conflict.

Posted by: chunga | Feb 27 2023 16:57 utc | 9

There was a brief discussion towards the end of the previous Ukraine Open thread about this. Given the primary sources this “news” emanated from, the general opinion was that there was no substantive proof and there was a distinct smell about the whole thing.

Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 27 2023 17:33 utc | 18

>"What are they waiting for".

They are waiting for the economic fallout from sanctions on trade with Russia to percolate into political changing of the guard in Western Europe.

The mild winter (weather modification?) spared Western Europe from exorbitant heating expenses, but that is just a delay in the inevitable decline in living standards that will result in the electorate voting for anything but the guys there now.

The West will poke the Bear some more.

On an unrelated side note: please make a point of informing people that the name of the country is, and I quote: "Republic of China", not taiwan. There is "the Peoples Republic of China" and "the Republic of China". Calling one the name of an island is disrespectful and disingenuous, designed to mislead people to their lose of blood and treasure.

Posted by: Hot Carl | Feb 27 2023 17:35 utc | 19

Hereby an interesting article that connects many dots, also related to the Ukraine saga;
https://www.algora.com/Algora_blog/2022/05/21/has-russia-already-won-is-it-game-over-for-the-rothschild-rockefeller-empire

Posted by: Michael | Feb 27 2023 17:38 utc | 20

team10tim | Feb 27 2023 16:12 utc | 1

What is Russia waiting for?

Why go chasing UAF around the countryside when they so obligingly line up in front of our guns? That would amount to an unforced error; never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.

Golddiggr | Feb 27 2023 17:29 utc | 16

The whole thing could be just another Russian ruse. To fool the desperate Ukrainians to draw troops from where they are needed.

Agree. And, in fact, RF activity along the main line of contact increased over the past few days. Ukraine needs ammo and a propaganda "win" desperately. So that supply depot is the ultimate shiny object as far as Ukraine is concerned.

Posted by: Spanky | Feb 27 2023 17:43 utc | 21

@Hot Carl | Feb 27 2023 17:35 utc | 19

On an unrelated side note: please make a point of informing people that the name of the country is, and I quote: "Republic of China", not taiwan. There is "the Peoples Republic of China" and "the Republic of China". Calling one the name of an island is disrespectful and disingenuous, designed to mislead people to their lose of blood and treasure.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 27 2023 17:44 utc | 22

Posted by: Hot Carl | Feb 27 2023 17:35 utc | 19

The UK ‘government’ is removing the price cap for gas from April, so prices will rise another 20%, meaning a £500 increase, per annum, for an average user.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 27 2023 17:50 utc | 23

https://original.antiwar.com/James_Bohn/2023/02/26/what-if-the-west-cant-put-ukraine-back-together/

An excellent article full of stats and facts as to Ukraine's likely Non-Future. In particular, the demographic problem which means Ukraine will lose no matter what happens on the battlefield.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 27 2023 17:55 utc | 24

Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 27 2023 17:33 utc | 18

I've seen no updates on the Simplicious substack or WarGonzo TG. You've got to figure Russian and China's intel share information and perhaps they're aware of plots to provoke others to gang up on Russia.

I suppose I'm hoping that China's position paper was a direct message to countries that want to involve themselves in escalation...STAND DOWN...or else.

Posted by: chunga | Feb 27 2023 17:55 utc | 25

What is really noteworthy is that the Russian budget is only prepared to spend less than $20 billion on the war in 2023.

This is a serious under-mobilization smh

Enthusiastic volunteers are only a drop in the bucket for this.

Russia needed to levy capital taxes, increase taxes on high-income earners and create a highly centralized wartime mobilization apparatus to win the war.

Posted by: Colin | Feb 27 2023 18:03 utc | 26

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/all-seeing-eye-can-russia-break-through This seems to be the reason the Russian airforce hasn't been as effect as they would have wanted, plus why russia isn't launching a big arrow offensive

Posted by: Thuvaarahan | Feb 27 2023 18:05 utc | 27

Posted by: Milites | Feb 27 2023 17:31 utc | 17

Interesting, thanks for that.

I stumbled across the following article on the development of kits to retrofit mortar, artillery and rockets with precision guidance.

It waffles on a bit about the history of their own research efforts but it gives an interesting overview of the field, some other developments that are going on and data on the relative effectiveness of guided vs unguided shells: an almost 10 to 1 improvement in effectiveness over unguided munitions, which is even greater at longer ranges.

https://www.revistaejercitos.com/2021/06/20/fgk-programme-fuze-guidance-kit/

Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 27 2023 18:09 utc | 28

Posted by: Michael | Feb 27 2023 17:38 utc | 20

Thanks for that article. Very important, IMO. I have to say it shifted my view of Russia's approach to Ukraine. My own tendency, like some others here in the bar, has been to be impatient and ask why Russia has not crushed Kiev yet. But it makes sense when you realize that this is just one of many warm-up acts to WWIII.

Why deploy your best forces in a crummy little proxy war when the real thing is about to hit? Save your best weapons and techniques for that. Make your enemy bleed out at minimum cost to yourself.

Very sobering. I don't see an off ramp here.

Posted by: Chris | Feb 27 2023 18:15 utc | 29

Posted by: Spanky | Feb 27 2023 17:43 utc | 21

The more west the war is fought, the less advantage Russia has.

Some American general claimed that "Ukraine has advantage in logistics compared to Russia" which I did find rather amusing. That's all you need to know about US command staff competency.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 27 2023 18:19 utc | 30

@ team10tim | Feb 27 2023 16:12 utc | 1

Again, and again, and again.

The goal of the Russian SMO is to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine, which lately transformed in denazify and demilitarize NATO. It's a slow and painful process, fought on the Russian constant pace.

They don't want to destroy big cities, like Kiev, Kharkov and so on, nor kill millions of civilians as per US military rules.

So, wait for this death by 1,000 cuts to run it's course. This will last until at least to the end of this year, when ammo and soldiers problems will start to be evident. Plus, come the warm weather millions of Ukrainians men will disappear in the neighboring countries

Posted by: Poison Frogs | Feb 27 2023 18:29 utc | 31

Posted by: chunga | Feb 27 2023 17:55 utc | 25

Personally I’m not convinced there’s a direct link between the recent flurry of publications from China and the purported sabotage attack in Belarus. Given the sources of the reports (Ukrainska Pravda and Moscow Times) I remain highly sceptical about what, if anything, actually happened. As I noted in the previous thread, even the BBC have a caveat in their coverage. Conceivably there might have been some kind of ground operation accident or mishandling that damaged something, the Ukie propaganda moles got wind of it and decided to try and take advantage.

Regarding the wider impact of the various Chinese papers, I think they will have gone down well with what some might call “Emerging Markets” but which I try to think of, these days, as the Global Majority. This is an audience that has long suffered the depredations of hegemonic colonialism, and will likely welcome the prospect of global re-orientation.

Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 27 2023 18:30 utc | 32

reply to 31

There are many advantages to this go slow approach - especially a reduction in Russian losses. The exception I see is, what to do about Odessa. Leaving it for NATO tends to wreck other long term goals. Perhaps someone has a strategy for taking it apart from a blitzkreig. Could they cut it off and simply hold out? Or do they hope to debilitate Ukraine so badly that they just roll in? The risk is that Zelensky flees or gets shot and a ceasefire is demanded in which case Putin gets stuck with the battle lines as they are - in Russia's favor but not complete.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 27 2023 18:41 utc | 33

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 27 2023 17:55 utc | 24

Thank you for that link. A lot of the talk about rebuilding Ukraine is empty rhetoric. The only thing the west is really good at is printing money. They are not so good at actually doing much, beyond enriching cronies who siphon off the funds before they do any good for the people they were ostensibly intended for. Look at Haiti, Chicago, or any inner city.

What has happened to Ukraine is going to take decades to repair. Disorder, chaos, and ruin require large energy inputs to reverse. Entropy is a harsh mistress.

Posted by: Chris | Feb 27 2023 18:42 utc | 34

The Ukraine conflict will disturb the upcoming G-20 Foreign Miniters Meeting in India March 1-2 as this article explains, "The US, West’s escalating tussle with Russia casts shadow on upcoming G20 foreign ministers meeting", as these two excerpts show:

"However, more countries especially developing countries and new emerging economies are becoming more worried and fed up with the US and some Western countries' attempt to hijack international meetings to air their grievances over the Russia-Ukraine conflict and use various platforms to pressure other countries to join their sweeping economic sanctions against Russia while the world desperately needs a political solution to the conflict as it faces spillover from the crisis and many more other pressing challenges, they noted."

And:

"With the majority of the international community concerned with more pressing issues on food, energy, security and economic crises and eager to find solutions, the US and some Western countries have been willfully pushing their agenda with their own strategic calculation, which not only exposes their selfishness and hegemony mind-set but also destroys the fundamentals of the G20 mechanism and other multilateral platforms, said analysts, noting that the original intention of the G20 is to solve crises instead of turning it into a stage for displaying a Cold War mentality."

The West's status as the global minority is pressing on it more everyday producing the sort of tantrums seen increasingly at international events that have Western participants. It will take some years for the West to adjust itself to its new place in geopolitics, which means we'll be subjected to further tantrums.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 27 2023 18:49 utc | 35

Re: supply to Transnistria

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture Ukraine Open Thread 2023-47| Feb 26 2023 19:22 utc | 52

@37 civilian trade goes on with Moldova and I doubt ukraine is blockading it in any effective way.

Militarily it's russian peace keepers are locals and there is no resupply except for black market smuggling I'm sure. Russia can't fly transports or sail without getting hit by nato missles fire from ukraine

This impression is based on the premises that:

1. Moldova isn't sovereign.
2. The Empire would like to expand the conflict.

Posted by: robin | Feb 27 2023 19:13 utc | 36

Ukraine also has a booming porn industry and some of the most beautiful women in all of Eastern Europe. Even Julien Michel Friedman from 2000 to 2003 deputy chairman of the Central Council of Jews in Germany and editor of the weekly newspaper Jüdische Allgemeine and from 2001 to 2003 president of the European Jewish Congress, ordered fresh hookers from Kiev to Berlin by phone under his alias "Paolo Pinkel" for his own use.

My question to the barfly's is:

How is the Ukrainian porn industry doing? There is nothing to read about it anywhere...

Posted by: BonfireNight | Feb 27 2023 19:14 utc | 37

Why would tactical nukes be forbidden?
Why shouldn't Russia use them?
I do not understand what would be the bad consequences for Russia?
The enemy must be afraid if you want to win.

Posted by: Sergio | Feb 27 2023 19:19 utc | 38

Eighthman @33--

On Odessa, I draw your attention to Putin's 21 Feb speech where he alluded to the liberation and reconstruction of Novorossiya of which Donbas is a smaller component, as well has his and other government member's referring to the lands of "great Russia" returning to the fold. As you're probably aware, Odessa is an Imperial City founded by Catherine the Great and in the overall scheme of things has far more importance than Kiev. In Dugin's recent essay, he referenced Putin's 30 Sept 2022 speech as seminal, an assessment with which I completely agree. IMO, that speech ought to be revisited at least annually if not more often. Official English transcript.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 27 2023 19:20 utc | 39

Julien Michel Friedman from 2000 to 2003 deputy chairman of the Central Council of Jews in Germany and editor of the weekly newspaper Jüdische Allgemeine and from 2001 to 2003 president of the European Jewish Congress, ordered fresh hookers from Kiev to Berlin by phone under his alias "Paolo Pinkel" for his own use.

Link ?

Posted by: Exile | Feb 27 2023 19:22 utc | 40

Question: Is anybody aware of just what a treasure chest of information this site is with its comments? No. I thought not..

Posted by: Ken Tucky | Feb 27 2023 19:22 utc | 41

Goalpost moving:

High-level chatter now indicates that the vaunted "spring offensive" by the Ukrainian armed forces has been postponed to summer, or maybe Autumn

https://www.rt.com/news/572144-west-ultimatum-ukraine-bild/

Expect a lot more one-off drone attacks and shelling of the Donbass until their patrons get tired of losing.

Posted by: Chris | Feb 27 2023 19:30 utc | 42

Some in the forum wonder why Russia does not do "more".
From my point of view, Russia is in a situation it could not even dream of before.
The speed with which Russia is proceeding corresponds on the one hand to the possibilities and on the other hand is itself a weapon.
Russia has analysed its Kiev blitzkrieg and understood that a quick solution is not possible, apart from nuclear bombs. Russia was and is in a manageable position in terms of personnel and the last real war ended in 1945. On the other side is NATO with Ukrainian personnel and economic enterprises.
Russia has to secure a huge area of land against terrorism; in Germany, the USA and the like, there are no comparable worries.
Ukraine would not be able to wage war without the Western satellites, secret services, weapons, money, retreat possibilities for the civilian population, etc.
Surprising troop concentrations and movements are no longer possible. The surprise effect is missing in this war. What has helped the Russians is to unleash simultaneous pressure on different axes to make it difficult for the enemy to manage and to prevent the shifting of troops to gain reserves. The slower new territory is won, the less partisan warfare can develop. Supplies remain assured.
One disadvantage is certainly the stationary character. NATO's satellite reconnaissance in combination with Excalibur and HIMARS threatens a mess 24h/365.
In return, Ukraine does not lose faith and beg NATO to death.
Russia is tying NATO to this conflict. If the conflict is not to end in front of the eyes of the world because NATO has to stop its support, a quick victory by Russia would relieve this. Then NATO would not be to blame, because they have delivered. But the Ukrainians would not have kept their promise.

Posted by: 600w | Feb 27 2023 19:35 utc | 43

Down South
FWIW, Russia seems more like a cat toying with a mouse with a broken back.
Does anyone really believe Russia has all her cards out, open on the table?
Russians have a very practical nature. The T34 was largely of an American design which the U.S. Military refused to adopt. Had the U.S. military adopted the T34 design with a diesel engine, thousands of Brits and Americans wouldn't have been incinerated alive.
Using the yardstick of "despite" vs. "because of" in American Military "successes" you will come a lot closer understand this weakened schoolyard bully.

Posted by: kupkee | Feb 27 2023 19:37 utc | 44

As to Odessa, assuming the Big Offensive comes and is successful, might it not be prudent to flank and avoid Nokolaiev and another potential Bakhmut and to push ahead to Odessa ..... at some point the supply roads and railways would have to be cut as well on order to isolate Odessa and make its capture easier.

In order to avoid Odessa to remain in Ukr hands with the possibility of a US naval base being established there, IMHO, it is absolutely imperative that Odessa be taken.

Posted by: chet380 | Feb 27 2023 19:37 utc | 45

Interesting analysis Re:Transnistria

Possible Ukrainian goals

So, what could be the current Ukrainian goals, by threatening Transnistria? I will point out some quick and not researched thoughts:

Ukraine is again on its backfoot in Donbass. As I lined out in my previous articles, I assume, that the collapse is only a matter of a few months. The only way to change the course, by prolonging the war and increasing the price for Russia (Western considerations) is to divert and trigger a reaction by Russia, which is not favourable to Russia.

Russia could be forced to divert resources, command and control and reconnaissance assets to the Transnistrian direction.
Russia would need to prepare men and material for an intervention, just in case. Even you know, that it is a pinning operation, like the Russians are pinning the Ukrainians along the Belorussian
you need to divert resources. Just in case.

It could be a consideration, that Russia fastens up its operations in Donbass, to divert Ukrainian resources back to the Donbass, away from Transnistria. This in turn would further bleed Russia, since it would need to attack well prepared positions, instead of grinding them down by artillery.

Russia would need to commit strategic assets and elite quick reactions forces to Transnistria to guard its citizens and troops there. During the deployment huge casualties are to be expected. Since, these would need to be deployed by air. Maybe by HALO paradrops. Moreover, there is the risk, that such assets (yes people) could be taken prisoner.

You are missing the capturing of the strategic ammunition depot in Cobasna? Rightfully so. It would mean a strategic advantage for Ukraine. So, it will never fall in their hand. It would be blown up in advance, even though it means huge losses for everyone involved, since the explosion could be compared to a tactical nuke. I assume, that the West came to the same conclusion, so the purpose of the current build-up is not the ammunition depot, but diversion.

Russian forces in Transnistria

In Transnistria Russia has a peacekeeping force. And it is doing exactly that. Keeping the peace. By its presence. Similar to the American “tripwire” or “chicken” concept. It also basically defends the ammunition depot. But it should not fight large scale ground combat. Moreover, there is the potential for mobilization of the Transnistrian people, of which many are Russian citizens as well.

So, let’s put a realistic combat worthy human potential, including the regular Russian peacekeeping forces there on 10,000 men. It is neither a small nor a huge force. But considering the defensive nature, it certainly could slow down any Ukrainian offensive, for a time needed, to activate the necessary contingency plans.

Let’s assume that there are really 10,000 armed Russian troops ready for defence. Reduce 2,000 for rear support activities. Then you have approximately some 40 troops for each kilometer of the line of contact between Ukraine and Transnistria. That is not very good. Since the attacker has the advantage of choosing where to attack and concentrate its offensive. Hence, intelligence is everything. As I stated before, it would mean, that Russia needs to divert its intelligence resources away from the actual combat to track, where Ukraine POTENTIALLY could attack.

I see two possible scenarios for this pinning operation.

1. Putting together two real brigades with well trained and equipped troops, that are assigned for offensive operations in Donbass. To make the threat look more credible.

2. Get together some territorial defence units and bring them to the Transnistrian border. This is actually more likely. Since I can’t see any escalation measures by Russia. Such troops would have a real hard time, breaking the Russian defences in Transnistria.

Ukraine can only attack Transnistria if Moldova greenlights it. If Moldova greenlights it, it is a party of the conflict. From Russia’s point of view and from Russia’s international partners, as well. Guess who depends on Russia economically? Guess who has a huge percentage of pro-Russian citizens? Moldova. I don’t see a scenario where Moldova would greenlight that attack, and without Ukraine won’t do it. It would trigger serious consequences within the European allies. I’m sure, Germany wouldn’t want to see such developments as well as Germany wouldn’t want to see Poland enlarging its territory by annexing parts of Ukraine.

Hence, again, there is almost no way, that such an attack could really take place. The only thing that would be worth it, would be the access to the Russian ammunition depot in Cobasna. Since it is clear that it would be blown up, the only reasonable reason left, is the diversion.

Currently, we see almost NO serious reactions by Russia. At least overtly. I don’t know what is going on covertly. Yes, some hard political statements, but no real overt preparations.

I assume, that the Transnistrian territory has been well prepared for such an eventuality before the start of the SMO. It should be clear enough, that after starting the SMO, Transnistria would be a hotspot.

To be clear, the Speznas has been used in this war for purposes, that are not their real purpose. Fighting battles that are designed for the regular army. Especially before the mobilization, because of men shortage. What I described above is ONE of their real purposes. But it is such a drastic measure, with a huge loss potential, that I simply can’t imagine such a thing happening. It would have such implications, that I don’t even want to write down here.

Conclusion
Unrealistic!
— Aleks
Black Mountain Analysis

Posted by: Down South | Feb 27 2023 19:39 utc | 46

Posted by: Exile | Feb 27 2023 19:22 utc | 40

Paolo Pinkel

Posted by: slothrop | Feb 27 2023 19:40 utc | 47

Russia is doing a broad front offensive. It has the time. It has the enemy coming to them to get killed.
Why would Russia want to needlessly expend troops when the enemy is sacrificing itself to hold territory that Russia will gain in time at the least cost to them?
When the enemy is exhausted Russia will move faster.
Russia has all the options. They have tricks left in their bag. They escalate when they have to and not before.

Posted by: Rabbit | Feb 27 2023 19:43 utc | 48

Well, only one day till the end of February and guess where the vaunted big offensive is ? That's right, nowhere.

The super duper big arrow offensive (to borrow from defense politics asia) has been predicted, if memory serves, since around August 2022. Back then, the infamous Nightvision on the Saker had already confidently predicted that things would accelerate pretty soon in the Donbass, with Russia confortably wrapping the whole thing up by September.

The next incarnation was the famous (and not happening) Winter Offensive, which was predicted for November, then December (due to the three-months training for the newly mobilized), then January, then February.. And probably March. People ponderously explained that Russia would wait for the ground to freeze to unleash its mysterious (and till now never seen by any of the dozens of satellites hovering above Ukraine and Russia) armored divisions.

Then we learnt that the offensive would start in February because apparently it's better for the ground to be muddy as, you see, it hinders Ukrainian retreat.

Last iteration was by simplicius78 who, on his blog, confidenty predicted that the last week of February would see some major fireworks.

The most curious aspect of it is that, despite failed prediction after failed prediction, the pro-Russian faithful continue fervently believe that the Russian army, which is unable to dislodge some Ukie units in Vuhledar, is somehow going to magically grow seven-leagues boots and suddenly waltz until Dnipropetrovsk. Because, you see, Russian commanders apparently enjoy sending Marines directly against fortified areas and spending weeks to conquer a few building blocks in Vuhledar when they could at a flick of a switch flatten it all. Guess it's more fun sending your best troops to die pointlessly.

The other explanation is that the entire Russian army is waiting for Wagner to finish off the Ukies in Bakhmut. Why the entire Russian strategy should hinge upon the success of a private mercenary corps remains a mystery.

And on and on trundles the big Russian carriage. Every defeat has an explanation, be it that the Russians are not really trying, or that they are biding their time, or that, I don't know, the weather ain't any good... Meanwhile Leopards and GLSDB are pouring into Ukraine and pro-Russian bloggers are now measuring distances in meters, as in Wagner is just 1600 meters from Bakhmut..

Posted by: Micron | Feb 27 2023 19:54 utc | 49

Posted by: chunga | Feb 27 2023 17:55 utc | 25:

I suppose I'm hoping that China's position paper was a direct message to countries that want to involve themselves in escalation...STAND DOWN...or else.

I doubt that China would dabble in futile antics such as issuing warnings/advice to third parties to stand down in events such as this SMO. Parties pondering involvements would get involved regardless, and those who wouldn't, won't. Nations such as KSA/India/Turkye/Iran/... are helping in inconspicuous ways (trades, energy purchases and price coordination, commodity trades, etc.). Nations such as Pakistan/Korea/African Nations/Latin American nations/ etc. didn't, and not expected to no matter what China says. Even the central Asia nations who used to be formal USSR states and members of (CSTO)are keeping hands off, understandably so since Russia is not at war, just conducting a SMO.

China's issuance of its position is just a reminder of what China stand for, using the anniversary of the SMO as an opportune time to make the statement for far more wider reaching attentions. It is also a hint to the world that China is prepared to do more. Receiving Lukashenko's visit while ignoring Zelensky's wish to visit puts China's position in context. I think going forward, support for Russia in weaponries and logistics is a foregone conclusion if the West double down on their effort to arm Ukraine. And such supports can be carried out in ways that the West can't propagandize against or object to. The Empire is now crying foul of China readying to supply lethal weapons, but China doesn't seem to give a shit. This is going to be the modus operandi going forward, the Empire using the Taiwan card or not. The stage is set to trap the Empire into multipolarity.

Biden's presidency will be remembered as the loss of Empire's unipolar supremacy in history, although the process (and much of the actual fact) of that loss has been in progress for the past two decades. 2023 may well witness a clear no voiced collectively by France and Germany.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Feb 27 2023 19:55 utc | 50

Posted by: Down South | Feb 27 2023 19:39 utc | 46

The thing that's most ominous in this PMR affair is that Maia Sandu being a US/Nato agent doesn't really care about Moldovan people or interests. She will do exactly what US tells her to do, and the risk is very real. Still it probably makes no sense to allocate any resources for such a huge and most likely costly operation to establish a beachfront near Odessa. The coast is probably filled with mines and UK sea missiles and anti-air. They need to spend every resource on mainland.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 27 2023 19:57 utc | 51

@Down South | Feb 27 2023 19:39 utc | 46
quote
So, let’s put a realistic combat worthy human potential, including the regular Russian peacekeeping forces there on 10,000 men. . . .Let’s assume that there are really 10,000 armed Russian troops ready for defence. Reduce 2,000 for rear support activities.

That's one support to to eight infantry. In the US Army, it's roughly ten to one, the other way, ten support soldiers (including combat arms MOSs like field artillery and combat engineers) to every one infantryman. Now we can assume the Ukr forces to be heavier in infantry then the more sophisticated US forces, but not to the degree that is assumed. That means fewer troops on the FEBA.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 27 2023 19:57 utc | 52

Posted by: kupkee | Feb 27 2023 19:37 utc | 44

https://tankandafvnews.com/2015/01/29/debunking-deathtraps-part-1/

The Sherman had the second highest crew survivability of allied tanks, only an 8% mortality rate, compared to infantry rates of 14%. Compared to the T-34 the M4 was a superior tank, and later versions, with VVSS/HVSS, wet stowage and the 76mm were excellent tanks. Once again, Post-War US authorities were suckered by the Germans and their narrative fictions and I, like all the other 70’s historian/war gamers, bought into the ‘Tommy Kettle/Ronson myth.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 27 2023 20:02 utc | 53

Wow !

Appears this Julien Michel Friedman was part of a white slaver mob that trafficked in underage Ukrainian girls. Shades of Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell.

Posted by: Exile | Feb 27 2023 20:04 utc | 54

Michael @ 20.

Thank you so much for posting the Algora site. Extremely informative, though dauntingly long. But I burned up the minutes to the point of reading the entire thing.

Fully worth the time, this posting presents the most thoroughgoing picture of the full picture, particularly regarding the role behind the scenes of the two scheming, plotting "families" (crime clans). My plan is to keep in touch with the site, including some digging into their enticing archives. The machinations of those rulers of the Collective West, the Rottenfeller and Rottenchild crime clans are key to the actions of the Five Eyes and to NATO. The sheer evil that is revealed about the actions of these "Two Families" is almost incomprehensible.

These matters go far beyond the passe' nostrums of the left-right divide which still undergirds a number of the posters here at MoA. The conflict is cosmic in scope and can be viewed as the eternal battle between those dark forces and the human need for personal and community freedom and prosperity.

Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 27 2023 20:05 utc | 55

John @4, @6,

Interesting, but can you give links.

Those of us who comment in MSM need MSM sources. Thanks.

Posted by: Steve from Oz | Feb 27 2023 20:05 utc | 56

@ Micron | Feb 27 2023 19:54 utc | 49
The super duper big arrow offensive (to borrow from defense politics asia) has been predicted. . .etc.

Reminds me of the several "turning the corner" claims that came every year from US esteemed government generals and appointees during the twenty years of Afghanistan fumbling by the finest military (reputed) in the world. . .It's only been one year for Russia so let's cut them a little slack. After all the Ukes are lot more of a challenge than the Afghans were.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 27 2023 20:07 utc | 57

Some more detail on Avdiivka…

🇷🇺The Russian army launched an offensive operation to encircle Avdiivka from two directions, Barabash, the head of the Kyiv occupation administration of Avdiivka, reports.

“The situation is so complicated that we don’t even have time to count the shelling. The enemy has been shelling the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the city and around all night. Tank, mortar and artillery shelling is taking place. Enemy air raids and missile strikes are taking place several times a day,” he said.

He also said that during the day there are dozens of assault actions by the Russian Armed Forces.

"The enemy does not go into the industrial zone in front, they cannot break through the industrial zone. From the south and north of the city, the enemy is trying to develop tactics to encircle the city."

https://t.me/llordofwar/87128

Very wide pincer movement around Avdiivka forming.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 27 2023 20:08 utc | 58

Posted by: Down South | Feb 27 2023 19:39 utc | 46

Flying or sailing forces in to defend Transnistria seems like utter madness. The real question is what missiles does RF have than can be precision targeted onto potentially moving targets by local forces or drones. Tornado has 200km range but I don’t think RF can get it close enough to cover the area. Iskander has the range but is expensive and most suited to hit large force concentrations.

Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 27 2023 20:09 utc | 59

Posted by: Micron | Feb 27 2023 19:54 utc | 49

Could you be so kind as to help me out here? I’m struggling to find statements from any official Russian sources that refer to any specific winter, spring or indeed summer offensive (big arrow or otherwise). Are you able to source these?

Now, maybe it’s just me, and I am missing something? Or maybe it’s just you and many others who have swallowed a stale Internet meme that keeps getting regurgitated?

Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 27 2023 20:11 utc | 60

One of 15 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Air_Force#Equipment) Russian Beriev A-50 was damaged/destroyed in Belarus:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarusian-partisans-say-russian-military-aircraft-damaged-near-minsk-2023-02-27/

Was this Russia's response?

https://www.rt.com/russia/572134-russia-strikes-intelligence-center-kiev/

Can't imagine an 'intelligence centre' in Ukraine without a few Western CIA/MI6/NATO types.

Is Russia finally making good of its threats to strike 'decision making centres'?

Posted by: Et Tu | Feb 27 2023 20:17 utc | 61

Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 27 2023 18:09 utc | 28

One thing many people don’t realise about mortars is that the, low-velocity, bomb comes down at a steep angle, with little warning, so it’s perfect for landing rounds close behind linear obstacles, or on top of structures and catching infantry unawares. In WWII it was the great killer and hated and feared, I don’t thinks it’s any different in Ukraine, given the advances in technology and the force-multiplier of drone assisted spotting and GPS for MFC’s and crews.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 27 2023 20:18 utc | 62

re:any official russian sources about winter\spring etc offenses
Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 27 2023 20:11 utc | 60

I doubt you find any, most the talk around this or that 'offensive' for the Russians has been almost entirely from the commentary circuits.

Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 27 2023 20:18 utc | 63

Karloff 1 @33

Continued full agreement that Odessa, the Pearl of the Black Sea, is the key ultimate MINIMAL objective. Operationally, it would best be invested by a crossing of the Dnieper fairly well to the north of Zap City. Air-mobile forces along with bridging unit combat engineers, with full aerial protection, possibly with a heavy proportion of drones would be in order. The gradual grinding down of Ukie effectives will be highly instrumental in such a project, as essentially shattered forces would be logistically unable to offer much blockage.

Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 27 2023 20:21 utc | 64

Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 27 2023 20:18 utc | 63

It is obvious to anybody paying attention that the Russian government does not bandy its military plans around in public. It's warnings are always not specific.

Respect.

Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 27 2023 20:22 utc | 65

These matters go far beyond the passe' nostrums of the left-right divide which still undergirds a number of the posters here at MoA. The conflict is cosmic in scope and can be viewed as the eternal battle between those dark forces and the human need for personal and community freedom and prosperity.

Hear, hear!

The other thing that struck me about the Algora site that John @20 linked to was the long timescale of this struggle. I wake up every day, thinking that some critical turning point might be here. Maybe Ukraine invades Transnistria, as some here are speculating, or maybe Putin gives orders to finally bomb NATO convoys of weapons directly in Poland.

Then I take a step back, and remember that the forces of evil behind this conflict go back to the days of Reagan, and probably earlier. Events like Bakhmut are interesting but hardly even minor details in a play that has gone on for my entire lifetime. Just as the war in Syria was a minor act in the play.

These men and women like Nuland, Blinken, Rockefeller, Kagan, and their spawns seem to survive every change of administration in DC. No matter whether it is Clinton, Bush, Obama, or Biden. Left/right labels are useless. Only Trump briefly gave them some indigestion. You cannot vote them out of power. They infest DC and now London, Berlin, and Paris like wharf rats.

Any concept of "agency" or elections making any sort of difference is an illusion at best, and a mockery of democracy at worst.

Posted by: Chris | Feb 27 2023 20:26 utc | 66

Posted by: Micron | Feb 27 2023 19:54 utc | 49

You don’t seem to understand that launching an offensive is a matter of endless risk/reward calculations, not just clicking a mouse cursor or pushing a stack of cardboard counters. Far better to let your opponent flail away at your pre-prepared defensive line, then launch your counter-blow, read up on Russian military history and see how many times they’ve pulled this manoeuvre to great effect.

‘Meanwhile out-dated tanks and weapons designed to take on insurgents, not a sophisticated multi-tiered ADS, are pouring in’. Corrected you.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 27 2023 20:27 utc | 67

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Feb 27 2023 19:55 utc | 50

Thanks for the thoughtful reply. What worries me is the capacity for sneaky tricks by Americans. It is their national specialty. This is my favorite quote for I think four years now by Dmitry Orlov.

"The United States can best be described as a singular, highly integrated, systemically corrupt scheme."

Just imagine what would happen if all the many, many vital things, from soup to nuts, that China manufactures became unavailable to warmongering western countries. That would be absolutely devastating with no quick fix.

I am glad that China spoke up because their words carry a lot of weight and there would be serious consequences if they became more directly involved. And they made it plain where they stand. This is food for thought.

*Incidentally (fwiw) Dima at Military Summary said today he saw no evidence of Russian planes getting blown up in Belarus. He speculated that perhaps something did happen but that it might be a message from the west regarding Lukashenko's trip to China tomorrow.

Posted by: chunga | Feb 27 2023 20:28 utc | 68

Unimperator @58

The liberation of Adiivka is SO vital to the civilian population in and around Donetsk city. Correct: The frontal attack concept is analogous to Butcher Haig's New Army offensive in the Battle of the Somme on 7-1-16, where even after the most powerful artillery barrage in military history; that New Army was shattered, with some 50,000 casualties in ONE DAY....a figure higher than total Russian dead and wounded since the onset of the SMO just over a year ago.

Russia's military is not stupid. Their commanding generals are not some sons of riches from the British Establishment. The operations to sew the objective into a nice little pocket is totally sound tactically, operationally and strategically.

Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 27 2023 20:28 utc | 69

Posted by: Et Tu | Feb 27 2023 20:17 utc | 61

The Reuters link you posted doesn’t offer any new information or independent confirmation of what may or may not have happened. All they do is refer to BYPOL; have a look at their home page here: https://bypol.org/en/ and tell me that is not a CIA front organisation.

Also, if you carefully read the Reuters piece, you will pick up a lot of hedging and offloading, leaving room for future backpedalling if it becomes necessary.

Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 27 2023 20:30 utc | 70

Regarding "big offensives", it was claimed that Ukraine has by now pushed their projected southern offensive date back to sometime Summer. Military summary theory was that UAF is waiting for Russia to attack first, but Russia might be waiting UAF to attack first. Biden gave Zelensky till Autumn 2023 to take back some areas, so they will be under pressure more. Russia can afford the buildup well beyond what Nato can provide, one could imagine. Also if those Chinese self propelled howitzers and more ammunition start coming online.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 27 2023 20:33 utc | 71

Possibly relevant to the situation in Moldova/Transnistria:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3941367-wizz-air-suspends-flights-to-moldova-amid-security-concerns

The Civil Aviation Authority confirmed on Monday that Hungarian airline Wizz Air (OTCPK:WZZAF) has suspended flights to and from Chisinau International Airport starting from March 14.

The airline cited safety and security reasons concerns over Moldovan airspace as the rationale for canceling flights to the national capital.

Posted by: Chris | Feb 27 2023 20:36 utc | 72

Micronumb @49

Seems that you are totally overlooking the probability factor of Weather Warfare. It's been going on since at least 1977 when Minnesota's leading monthly journal's leading headline was "Weather or Not" . It was an essay on the then weather war between the then USSR vs. the then somewhat describable U.S. military.

Is it a coincidence that Western Europe in particular and Eastern Europe as well have been enjoying what may end up being the warmest, mildest winter weather in decades. At the same time immense storms have wracked North America, as an internet long-range weather prognosticator is predicting that much of the U$$A and Canuckistan will be facing a nasty first three weeks of March.

Can the HAARP system or various upgrades in weather "modification" actually materialize on a hemispheric basis? Time will reveal all. Meanwhile, Ukraine and Collective West are breathing sighs of relief that "General Winter" did not come to the aid of the RF this year and that "General Mud" ...the Raspitutsi...will give the shattered Ukie army the possibility of catching their breaths. But as for an ultimate Ukie offensive...fuggitaboudit.

Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 27 2023 20:44 utc | 73

Anyone care to explain why Transinistria been attacked yet?

Posted by: jpc | Feb 27 2023 20:51 utc | 74

Sergio @38

WHY are you in love with tactical nukes? Just because they are nominally "tactical" does not obviate the fact that they are NUKES. Once nukes get used for the first time, escalation axiomatically comes into play. Inform yourself please.

Posted by: sristodemos | Feb 27 2023 20:52 utc | 75

In Debeltseve in 2015, thousands of ukraine troops were trapped and surrounded by the militia troops of donetsk and luhansk. It forced poroshenko to negotiate the Minsk agreement as part of a deal to free them.

Bahkmut....de ja vu?

Posted by: HERMIUS | Feb 27 2023 20:54 utc | 76

The debt collector calls to discuss repayment arrangements, not forgetting 10% for the “Big Guy”.

Sputnik is reporting that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has made an unannounced visit to Kiev in order to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Though there’s not much more detail, here’s the link: https://sputniknews.com/20230227/live-updates-kremlin-slams-absurd-new-eu-sanctions-list--1107832390.html

Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 27 2023 20:55 utc | 77

What is Russia waiting for?

It seems to me that everything is in place for a massive offensive, why is Russia waiting? Are they planning a long war to drain the west or is there some other reason for the delay?

Posted by: team10tim | Feb 27 2023 16:12 utc

I share your thoughts. The relatively slow pace has some saying this is a "fake war" with little journalist presence in the theater of operations. With more and more journals stating of possible peace initiatives one wonders if there are some back room deals in the making. It wouldn't make sense for the Russians to give up huge parcels of the Ukraine for the sake of peace and have a future NK/SK scenario which will come back and bite you in the future. Knowing that all wars are Banker wars, the U.S. (in particular) would be most interested in preserving a portion of the Ukraine (Remember BlackRock and I think J.P. Morgan have made deals with Kiev for infrastructure rebuilding (i.e. resource control)). Russia may be holding back an offensive believing in a larger NATO offensive in the Spring which also doesn't make sense unless one believes that the quicker Russia exterminates the Ukes, the more likelihood of NATO escalation. Which leaves the continued grinding approach of attrition and continued jawboning of the MSM.

Posted by: Cond Zero | Feb 27 2023 20:58 utc | 78

Perhaps all the "Russia must use Nukes" blather is about normalizing the idea so when the false flag "tactical nuke" is pulled they think it can be blamed on Russia, they are foaming at the mouth for an excuse get "tactical".

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Feb 27 2023 21:00 utc | 79

[email protected]
I'm not sure what the 'passe nostrums of the left-right divide" are.
But what I do know is that there is a lot more to the struggles in the world than the evil machinations of a couple of Anglo families- the Rockefellers are the Rothschilds.
Get rid of them, reduce them to poverty and you will have changed nothing.
Suppose, for the sake of argument, that they do have the power that is alleged by some. What is its basis? How is it sustained and in what way does it differ from the power of other capitalists?
One of the great intellectual problems that we face is the refusal of so many seeking to explain/change the world to confront theories redolent of socialism or marxism. The capitalist system benefits a ruling class which is much wider and more widely spread than the membership of two families in London and New York.
In the end any theory blaming a handful of families for the fruits of centuries of capitalist exploitation and expansion is childish nonsense calculated to distract people from taking the actions needed to liberate humanity and extend the life expectancy of the planet.

Posted by: bevin | Feb 27 2023 21:14 utc | 80

Does anyone really believe Russia has all her cards out, open on the table?
Russians have a very practical nature. ...
Posted by: kupkee | Feb 27 2023 19:37 utc | 44

I already observed during the hot years of Syrian war (unfinished, but not that hot, apparently) that sustainability and having reserves is the essence of Putin style. Big scale flashy operation do happen, but they must fit to calculations. Overall, Syrian war was very much on budget, perhaps excessively so -- why Syria is so miserable under sanctions? IMHO, China should be less stingy too.

And indeed, with Americans steadily increasing military capabilities in Europe, and shaky sanity , Russia has to be VISIBLY capable of response to a large escallation. In the meantime, Ukraine resists way beyond expectation, but sustainability is not there. Economy is in shambles, mobilization effort look frantic, the necessary ECONOMIC aid seems larger than entire Ukrainian budget before the hot war (i.e. in the non-hot war 2014-2021). From that point of view, Ukraine became a zombie state like South Vietnam or occupied Afghanistan. As long as voltage is applied to a dead frog, the frog can move as Volta proved in his experiments, and as Americans proved in Vietnam and Afghanistan, that ceases once you stop it.

Politically, semi-comic vulnerability comes from Republicans in USA. To fight, Ukraine needs also to function as if it were a real state, with subsidies of several billions per month. Those monies are like a social support, something Republicans detest (incidentally, "social money" are easiest to re-channel in corrupt directions...). Thus the chance is that some of the worst political instincts may play most benign role, miserliness for peace.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 27 2023 21:16 utc | 81

@ Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 27 2023 20:30 utc | 70

News of the attack on the Russian plane has been widely reported across all major publications from Zero Hedge to Al Jazeera, not just your Western MSM fake news usual suspects.

It is also across all pro-Russian Telegram channels like this one:

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/35199

Even Southfront reported it:

https://southfront.org/russian-long-range-radar-detection-and-control-aircraft-targeted-at-airfield-in-belarus-reports/

It is likely that all surrounding residents and commuters, as well as having their ID's checked at roadblocks (as reported) were also reminded of the consequences of sharing images that may embarrass the Russian Federation, so don't hold your breath on visual confirmation.

If you were expecting confirmation by seeing an article about it on Tass or RT, then good luck expecting anything but silence from a place where 'see no evil' widely applies to its media reporting on bad news, and where even ships being hit by missiles are reported as 'mechanical malfunctions' leading to self combustion.

Posted by: Et Tu | Feb 27 2023 21:17 utc | 82

Bevin @80

Thanks for the reply. To be clear, I am not of the school of thought that all the world's evil is due to the Rockefellers or the Rothschilds, or any other small group of humans that get mentioned more nowadays, such as Soros or Gates.

I do agree with Aristodemos that this is a "cosmic" struggle that reflects something deeper than left vs. right, and must be spiritual in nature. How is it that these neo-cons rats are able to so successfully survive elections, and changes in power, and embed themselves in the "deep state?" Why can't some country inside the west rise up on its hind legs, and say "you shall not pass?"

Maybe Hungary is giving a decent effort, but in general, isn't it somewhat shocking how not a single country inside the EU dares to question the sanity of printing billions of digital funny-money, sending it to "Ukraine" in virtual wheelbarrows similar to Weimar Germany while watching 1/3rd of the Ukranian population flee to their own homelands, and most of the young males die? Not to mention the surplus "wunderwaffen." Did they skip their history lessons?

I don't know whether capitalism per se is the issue, but late-stage capitalism centered around financial engineering and fraud is part of it.

Posted by: Chris | Feb 27 2023 21:31 utc | 83

Posted by: Et Tu | Feb 27 2023 21:17 utc | 82

Mariupol for a Slava class CG and Bakhmut for an An-50 AWACS, seems like a good deal to me. Perhaps we can throw in Avdivka as well. Fixating on possible losses to an airframe as a coping mechanism for losing two bastion cities and upwards of 10k captured shows that perhaps your priorities are a little skewed.

‘good luck expecting anything but silence from a place where 'see no evil' widely applies to its media reporting on bad news’

I assume your talking about the Western MSM, as any Russian has far more access to alternative news sources that I, a resident of the UK have.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 27 2023 21:36 utc | 84

@82 Et tu - if you read carefully, all those outlets such as ZH merely link back to the Ukrainian Pravda or Moscow times, both state-sponsored propaganda outlets.

That's the way the modern "media" work - doing the actual hard work of getting a single, reliable, source, yet alone multiple sources, is just too much to ask of them. "rip and read" rules, similar how to playground gossip spreads at your local elementary school.

Posted by: Chris | Feb 27 2023 21:37 utc | 85

Posted by: Et Tu | Feb 27 2023 21:17 utc | 82

Indeed I have seen the story being widely reported (though Zero Hedge appear to have taken it down, at least it is not on their front 2 pages) but all these wide reports quote the same limited sources.

Facts, laddie, facts.

Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 27 2023 21:41 utc | 86

@Eighthman | Feb 27 2023 18:41 utc | 33

A ceasefire does not mean that the situation is frozen.

Take, for example, the armistice ending WW I. Germany surrendered to enemies claiming to be acting according to Wilson's 14 points.

No blame casting. No reparations.

1. Open diplomacy without secret treaties
2. Economic free trade on the seas during war and peace
3. Equal trade conditions
4. Decrease armaments among all nations
5. Adjust colonial claims
6. Evacuation of all Central Powers from Russia and allow it to define its own independence
7. Belgium to be evacuated and restored
8. Return of Alsace-Lorraine region and all French territories
9. Readjust Italian borders
10. Austria-Hungary to be provided an opportunity for self-determination
11. Redraw the borders of the Balkan region creating Roumania, Serbia and Montenegro
12. Creation of a Turkish state with guaranteed free trade in the Dardanelles
13. Creation of an independent Polish state
14. Creation of the League of Nations

Then, after 5 months carving up the world while brutally starving Germany into agreeing to sign the travesty the Allies cobbled up, and the British, Americans and French invading Russia, came the treaty of Versailles which included blame, reparations, and the violation of every one of Wilson's points.

One way to deal with the situation, which neither the US, nor the UK will ever permit, will never permit, would be to allow the refugees created since 2014, many currently living in Russia, to return, and then hold a district-by-district referendum on whether to remain a part of the bankrupt and devastated Ukraine, with everything valuable owned by foreigners, or become a part of the thriving CIS, repudiating prior Ukrainian commitments. Under such terms, even Kiev might vote to join the CIS.

So the only requirement 5o implement a democratic solution acceptable to Russia will be 5o keep the UK and US from interfering. If Russia manages to pull this 9ff, it will be a major advancement on the road towards ending the Oligarchic Hegemony.

Posted by: Hermit | Feb 27 2023 21:52 utc | 87

@Milites | Feb 27 2023 21:36 utc | 84

Very well said.

Posted by: Hermit | Feb 27 2023 21:56 utc | 88

aristodemos @64--

It's become/has always been much easier to rely on the generalities mentioned by Russia's leaders than trying to predict the minutia of this or that potential offensive. Recall the oft-mentioned admonishment regarding behavior--past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior. The last major decision was made during a meeting between Putin and one of the regional governors whose area is subjected to Ukie shelling--to push the offending forces out-of-range--and wasn't publicized at all, although I noted it in my report on what were a series of those meetings back in January. Putin made it clear that goal was now the political imperative, which meant it also became the military imperative. If any Big Arrow offensives were then being planned, they were clearly nixed by this new, urgent political goal. I mused on the possibility of a push from the zone around Zaporozhe towards Dnipro that would cross the Dnieper and head towards Odessa while also clearing the Dnieper's West bank, but nothing like that has begun. I recently advocated the greater use of loitering drones to eliminate Ukie artillery, but haven't seen much evidence of that, although admittedly it would be hard to discern. Recently, Putin, Lavrov, Medvedev, and others have reiterated that NATO weapons would continue to be pushed well beyond their range/ability to target Russian territory, which was also a hint at the ultimate fate of NATO missile installations in Poland and Romania. We also know Russia has declared that NATO/West/Outlaw US Empire is engaged in a war that Russia views as existential, and thus will not stop until the existential threat(s) is/are removed.

That fact can be taken to the Big Picture to see what must change to conform to Russia's security. IMO, the most important aspect is the health of the international economy within which Russia operates and needs its support just as much as the RoW needs Russian support. All Russian leaders have spoken about the need for the international economy to be completely dedollarized, which is now well understood by the vast majority of nations. IMO, it's more important for that to occur than any Big Arrow offensive since it hits at the source of the problem, not the captured Ukies, and will free many nations from the grip of dollar hegemony. One of the unmentioned effects will be hemming in terrorist groups financed by the Empire's dollar who won't be as able to spend them in nations where they're no longer accepted as payment for local goods terrorists need for their support.

Organizing RoW into regional blocs so they can later become one vast global bloc is one of the many tasks for Russian diplomacy and that includes the financial issue too.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 27 2023 21:59 utc | 89

Posted by: kupkee | Feb 27 2023 19:37 utc | 44

Posted by: Milites | Feb 27 2023 20:02 utc | 53

That is one opinion, here's another from the University of Illinois

A Poor Defense: Sherman tanks in WW2
https://archives.library.illinois.edu/2013/11/22/poor-defense-sherman-tanks-ww2/#:~:text=Because%20of%20their%20insufficient%20armor,other%20munitions%20inside%20a%20tank.

There are lots of analysts about on this topic, claiming to be experts. The Sherman was rather high, under-powered and most had rather weak guns for the Western Europe conflict. You wonder how they would have fared on the Eastern frontier, where the air dominance was not as clear cut as in the West, and the opposition by the German forces stronger.

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Feb 27 2023 22:03 utc | 90

Continuing from the previous thread:

Shadowbanned @267

Fuck you and fuck Rybar. NEVER nukes!!! Once they are used there is no going back. Do you actually WANT thermonuclear destruction for the human race? Such stupidity should crawl in a hole and rot.

Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 27 2023 16:12 utc | 295

As I have repeated talked about, my chief concern is that conventional escalation was allowed to proceed unhindered to the point where we are indeed facing a nuclear exchange. And the blame for that is primarily on Putin and the people around him.

It should never ever have been allowed to get that far. He sat on his hands and let it happen.

But once it has gotten to this point what do you do? You are facing a very real possibility of losing not just the nuclear supremacy you supposedly have for a brief moment in time but even the second strike deterrent if action is not taken to stop further attacks.

Here is the balance of power:

Ground forces: decisive advantage for RF over NATO
Air forces: 4-5 to 1 advantage for NATO
Naval forces: about the same, or even greater advantage for NATO
ISR: decisive NATO advantage
Strategic forces: RF has the edge at the moment

So overall NATO is stronger if nukes are not allowed to be used. But it is weaker if they enter the picture.

Thus NATO strategy currently is to bleed the RF ground forces using UA as the proxy, reducing the gap in ground forces, while in the same time it has started to do direct attacks on the RF strategic forces.

Keep that going without doing anything to stop it, and eventually there will be a real reduction in capability. This isn't the USSR with its bottomless buffers and resources, it is a Russia whose strength is at best a quarter of that of the old the Soviet Union.

Russia doesn't have all that many AWACS planes, strategic bombers, etc., and the day when attacks will start on the strategic objects in the Urals may not be too far in the future either.

There will have to be a decisive response at some point to stop it, or where this gets us eventually is a strategic defeat. Including quite possibly a first strike once RF is deemed sufficiently weakened.

All of this could have been preempted by mobilizing properly and rolling the Banderite scum all the way to the Polish border in the initial phase of the war. It wasn't done.

Second best thing is to do it now, but there is still insufficient mobilization while the Banderites were greatly strengthened. So even if there is a proper mobilization, it is not going to happened in the next 12-18 months minimum. But there is no such mobilization and the Banderites and the "dear partners"'s forces on the ground are still treated with kid gloves.

Meanwhile Transnistria is there completely unprotected and out of reach by ground forces, while attacks on the mainland continue daily (just now three drones were shot over Belgorod). The situation is expected to escalate further.

What do you do then? There aren't a lot of options left. Sending a Kalibr with a 10-Kt warhead inside the Beskydy Tunnel to melt it fully shut, which is in a remote area, not in the middle of a large population center, would knock some sense into people without hurting many civilians other than whoever is unlucky enough to be inside at that moment.

It absolutely shouldn't have come to this, I fully agree, but what else is there to do? Don't blame me, blame those who let it get so out of hand...

Posted by: shadowbanned | Feb 27 2023 22:07 utc | 91

Milites | Feb 27 2023 21:36 utc | 84
Chris | Feb 27 2023 21:37 utc | 85

Yep!

@Et Tu, I dare you to go and see what the cuddly and cultured folks at 4chan are saying about the story (hint: they might be ripping it to shreds!).

Don’t forget to wipe your feet on the way out though...

Posted by: West of England Andy | Feb 27 2023 22:11 utc | 92

Alistair Crooke has a new one out that I do not see here:

“Appetites of the autocrat cannot be appeased. They must be opposed. Autocrats only understand one word: “No.” “No.” “No.” (Applause.). “No, you will not take my country.” “No, you will not take my freedom.” “No, you will not take my future … A dictator bent on rebuilding an empire will never be able to ease [erase] the people’s love of liberty. Brutality will never grind down the will of the free. And Ukraine — Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. Never”. (Applause.)

“Stand with us. We will stand with you. Let us move forward … with an abiding commitment to be allies not of darkness, but of light. Not of oppression, but of liberation. Not of captivity, but, yes, of freedom”.

Biden’s speech at Warsaw, complete with the lighting effects and dramatic backdrop reminiscent of his Liberty Hall speech in which he sought to portray his own domestic MAGA opposition as a grave security threat to America, again resorts to radical Manicheanism to depict (this time) Russia, (the external counterpoint to the related U.S. MAGA threat), as the foundation for the epic battle between light and the forces of darkness. The eternal struggle that persists – that must be fought endlessly and won crushingly.

Again, as with his Liberty Hall speech, Biden offered no concrete plan. Here in Warsaw, with the sands of time running out on his Ukraine ‘project’, and with U.S. ‘Realists’ and China ‘hawks’ gaining more traction at home, Biden elevated the struggle from the literal to the metaphysical plane.

Manichaeism and ‘An Ideology of Liberal Empire’ – Biden’s Forever Cosmic War Against Russian ‘Evil’

Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 27 2023 22:20 utc | 93

oh the ghosts of war are awake and some people are scared of ghosts it seems :)

Posted by: Macpott | Feb 27 2023 22:26 utc | 94

@Thuvaarahan 27

I don't think Simplicius76 analysis is always correct, he's made many faulty predictions, one only needs to
look at the pre-Putin's speech, the hysteria and flurry of 'experts' exerting their prophecy's which no one
knows except for the KGB. The West throwing every single excuse why Russia hasn't replicated their own dumb-ass
tactics, etc, etc. The only thing I will say that I got out of one of his comments was he directed a video of
Polina Gagarina kukushka song with subtitles. Amazing lyrics, sung by a very beautiful and talented Russian woman.

Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Feb 27 2023 22:33 utc | 95

DowbSouth (5): Don't be a victim of Elon Musk hype. The reason Starlink was left intact was because the Russians during the first six months of the SMO were playing with kid gloves, not touching commercial satellite systems used for Ukrainian military operations. The large mobilization in August and subsequent missile attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure coincided with Russian threats to Starlink, which led Musk to withdraw his commercially valuable satellites from the war. One can argue that the Russians went too softly at first and are still not attacking the major cities of Ukraine, but they want to eventually acquire and rebuild Ukraine and don't want to take over a complete wasteland. But as the sieges and massive destruction of Mariupol and Bakhmut have shown, the Ukrainian military is willing to sacrifice soldiers and armaments and civilian infrastructure at a catastrophic rate merely to delay the inevitable Russian victory. Russia will probably just continue to slog it out, losing one man for every ten Ukrainian men until a Ukrainian collapse occurs from within.

Posted by: FHTEX | Feb 27 2023 22:33 utc | 96

Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland on Monday said members on the fringes of both the Democrat and Republican parties are beginning to question the US assistance to Ukraine:

"You're not wrong, that on the fringes of both parties, folks are starting to question, but fundamentally, when you look at how this issue is polling around the country, Americans hate a bully. They do not want to stand on the sidelines while Russia eats its neighbor" Nuland said during a discussion on US leadership hosted by the US Chamber of Commerce.

So... a nation of self-loathing Neocons then.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 27 2023 22:36 utc | 97

@ Posted by: Milites | Feb 27 2023 21:36 utc | 84

For all our shared dislike of the collective West and justified criticisms of its press, one must be fair and admit that at least when they were involved in a major war, they always reported on their military losses in Iraq and Afghanistan, a privilege the Russian public has deliberately been denied of, since there is no reporting on how many of their men have died, and any figures released area about as reliable as their claims of having shot down 390 enemy planes in a country that had a fraction of that number before even entering the war.

Not so sure if the same 'honest' reporting of casualties would still happen today in the West, but as far as transparency goes, you'd have a hard time convincing me we can look up to Russia, or China for that matter.

As for the rest of the comments, settle down folks, just because i don't simp on Russia 24/7 doesn't make me an enemy of it, far from it actually.

Posted by: Et Tu | Feb 27 2023 22:52 utc | 98

I see the "all the way to Odessa" faction is out in full force.

Trying to read the tea leaves on both sides, I do not think it will happen for the following reasons:

1. The Russian leadership must have noticed what happened in Mariupol and other major cities they have captured. Seeing the same happen to a city like Odessa would make anyone cringe.

2. Odessa is a "liberal" city full of artsy types. Not going to be a good fit with traditional "family values" Russia. It would be a base of permanent resistance.

3. The Chinese peace proposal (which must have been floated by Russia first) leaves it in non-DMZ Ukraine.
https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Russia-Welcomes-the-Chinese-Peace-Plan-for-Ukraine-20230224-0011.html

4. Nuland, who has also seen the DMZ proposal, commented that Crimea should also be demilitarized.

There is going to be a deal, likely this year or early next. A lot of barflies are going to be disappointed.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Feb 27 2023 22:53 utc | 99

Continued full agreement that Odessa, the Pearl of the Black Sea, is the key ultimate MINIMAL objective. Operationally, it would best be invested [?] by a crossing of the Dnieper fairly well to the north of Zap City. Air-mobile forces along with bridging unit combat engineers, with full aerial protection, possibly with a heavy proportion of drones would be in order. The gradual grinding down of Ukie effectives will be highly instrumental in such a project, as essentially shattered forces would be logistically unable to offer much blockage.

Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 27 2023 20:21 utc | 64
-------------------------------------------

I said it before here on MoA, and I still stand by my statement. Russia will not take Odessa. Why? Because Russia must leave something in the pot to negotiate with. Russia should capture every think up to the Dnipro (Dnepr) River. Then, negations can leave Odessa to remain a part of Ukraine, with the caveat that it must exist within a two to three hundred kilometer (?) DMZ zone for the protections of both sides.

Negotiations to keep Kherson west of the Dnepr within the Russian Federation will be hard enough and might have to be taken either by force or added to the negotiation pot as well.

Posted by: Ed | Feb 27 2023 22:56 utc | 100